New Housing Bubble in Canada?
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Sun, 02/07/2010 - 6:59pm (173 comments)
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Bubble fatigue, anyone?
OT: After Turmoil at Merrill, Thain Will Lead the Lender CIT - NY Times
same scumbag....new stage....I guess the elites just like to recycle trash
WSJ is just jealous - the Canadian health care system is better and they have not had their bubble pierced (or blown up?)
Nope. I'm good with more
.
Reminds me of why I don't kill myself with more work.
Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.
Another day in the G8 looking for Mr. Inflation.
I can't find much energy for a housing bubble in Canada. It is supposed to be boring and stable.
Maybe they are going to have a bit of trouble when the Olympics are done in Cancouver- but as for Saskatoon- meh.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Canadians are so polite & subtle...
Go
s!
dryfly wrote:
How many "financially vulnerable" Americans do we have? More than 9% of American households?
Night liz...I'm not far behind you.
lol
HSI 19565.71 -83.63 -0.43%
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited
Bubble?
Yes.
The ratio of median price to median household income is Vancouver, BC is 9.3 !
Did the Bears win?
They walked into this with eyes wide open. A shutdown in Chinese commodity buying sinks them.
Bubble?! Impossible. I have been assured many times that it's different there.
In addition, I have read many times that the banking system is more sensibly run there.
It's a good thing their lifestyle isn't threatened by global wage arbitration or is in any way tied to the US economy.
Are nicer parts of greater Toronto and Vancouver trading at 7-8x incomes? If so, yes.
CK -- how did you find out whether your loan was with F&F? I have a mortgage that was originated thru Saxon, wondering who has it now myself.
The two main local flavours I can think of:
- CMHC the national mortgage agency, is fully backed by the Federal government, but will only cover the first 80% of equity. Hence the role of private mortgage insurance for the rest, 3 main firms in that sector, Genworth, Citi was new, and one other that eludes me
- Mortgages are recourse nationally, and deficiency is commonly pursued
That being said, pockets of population are highly concentrated and real estate markets are very divergent within the country due to fluctuations in local income, as well as varying tightness of market supply & demand
Robot bankers too? Maybe they already exist:
BBC News - Can battlefield robots take the place of soldiers?
What? Vancouver has a housing bubble?
Vancouver has world's least affordable housing: report
artichoke, I don't know that for sure. I KNOW I was NOT with F and F at the beginning of the process in June because I checked it on the HAMP site to see if I could get the refinance program instead of the loan mod. Only F and F mortgages qualified for the refi. I just noticed on the mod docs that F and F are mentioned as interested parties now.
doug r wrote:
Hong Kong money? Canada does not have a 'subprime' problem, according to PK
Also, the big Canadian banks are quietly trying to get the federal government to tighten up loan rules:
Big Six banks urge Ottawa to tighten mortgage rules - The Globe and Mail
Beazer Homes has a profit
Beazer Homes reports $48 million Q1 profit - Triangle Business Journal:
doug r wrote:
Yup time to close the barn door now that the horses are long gone.
both Ontario and British Columbia will be bringing in a Harmonized Sales Tax come June 1 (for that matter I think Toronto brought in a RE sales tax around 2008)
Harmonized in that it is the unification of provincial and federal sales taxes, so half the paperwork. In simplifying the paperwork however, many provincial exemptions are eliminated or reduced.
Speaking of taxes, there isn't a mortgage deduction and there is a capital gains tax if you don't use the place as a primary residence for 2 years (?)
Vancouver is a super-pro at these real estate bubbles and busts (it's susceptible because of geographic and transportation constraints), was off 20 (for re-sale) to 30% (initial asking prices for new condos) by the end of 2008 after peaking in March 2008. Then the global financial crisis struck, mortgage rates fell, many existing homeowners held off on selling, and for a while demand exceeded supply. Locally there is a social roadblock to selling known as the Olympics, and this happens in every Olympic host city, but that should be gone in a month along with the extra income the Olympics will be providing
My bubble is bigger than your bubble.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Pool of Greater Housing Fools in Australia Finally Runs Out; OZ Dollar, Where to From Here?
I just used the tool on the website and my mortgage is not owned by F and F according to their websites.
SNAFU wrote:
You don't need subprime to have a housing bubble, you should know that by now
doug r wrote:
Makes sense-Vancouver is one of the great cities to live in.
$750k for a fixer-upper, anyone?
Detailed Residential Listing
JP wrote:
You have been assured incorrectly. The Greater Toronto Area is exceptionally vulnerable to an automobile manufacturing slowdown, as that sector is inextricably linked to huge number of upper and lower tier supplier jobs and associated services. Calgary has benefited from a rebound in oil prices, but that could be transient, and Vancouver has the post-olympic hangover to contend with.
Sensible banking aside, prices in many areas are just plain silly.
Just this weekend I passed a new development selling homes "in the $400s and $800s", as it said on the sign.
Google Maps
You'll note that this development is in the middle of nowhere, miles from services and a good hour from downtown Toronto, excluding rush hour. It should also be noted that Oshawa, while not inner city Detroit or anything, is pretty much the sphincter of Ontario. I can say this having spent a good deal of time in that region.
that's the thing about housing in Canada. Even if there is a bubble nationally, it doesn't feel right to call it a national bubble because the stories vary significantly with each market. Like everything about this country, it's an agglomeration
besides, you can describe the entire country's housing market with about 7 different regions/stories
noob goldberg wrote:
So Winnipeg is safe - right? You didn't mention Winnipeg.
Did this story get talked about in the last thread? I was on the road for the past four hours and haven't gotten caught up. Like, for example, how was the superbowl?
Obama Debt Market Catches Break as U.S. Auctions Peak (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
It's not like any of the banks are suckling the carry-trade teat these days or anything, right? This is
, right?
Obama Debt Market Catches Break as U.S. Auctions Peak (Update1)
*Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The Treasury’s decision to stop increasing the size of debt auctions may temper a rise in bond yields and bolster the economy just as the Federal Reserve withdraws emergency spending measures.
Treasury will sell $81 billion of notes and bonds in its quarterly refunding this week, the same as in the previous auction, and government officials say they’ve already increased enough to fund a budget deficit set to expand 14 percent this year. Restricting growth will cause the difference in yields between 2- and 10-year notes to shrink to 2.15 percentage points by year-end from the record 2.90 percentage points last month, according to Bloomberg surveys of banks and securities firms.
The so-called narrower yield curve may cap mortgage rates, which are pegged to 10-year Treasury note yields, as the central bank’s $1.25 trillion in mortgage-bond purchases end on March 31. It also would encourage banks that have relied on profiting from differences between short- and long-term rates to boost loans as the Fed tries to cut its stimulus and lending programs.
“The flatter the yield curve, the more apt banks are to lend, because they’re not making this huge carry,” said David Brownlee, head of fixed income at Sentinel Asset Management in Montpelier, Vermont, which manages $22 billion. “The impact of mortgage rates on the housing market is going to be benefited by a flatter curve.”*
That's like $1M US, right?
dryfly wrote:
no the peg has a crime problem
Where do the "Rough Riders" play "football"?
dr munch wrote:
Regina, sister city to Saskatoon, which is the home of the potash industry
Housing bubble in Canada?
I better buy before I'm priced out forever. Someone, quick, get me some listings.
Gee, people really jump on a thread about Canada.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau had a saying: "When the elephant sneezes, everyone catches a cold."
The Globe and Mail: Series
So can we start blaming the homeowners now? Or is there a waiting period?
dryfly wrote:
Winnipeg is terribly undervalued, and I encourage any Northern-dreaming American expats to seriously permanently relocating to the geographic centre of Canada. If you can survive July, you can survive that town year-round, so everyone head up there on a nice sunny summer day and scope out some of the cheap housing they have available.
nova
Is it true D.C. has frozen over? New Orleans elected a white mayor and won the Superbowl in the same week? Is it all an omen?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
It's the city that rhymes with 'Fun'.
greenchutes wrote:
Average house price in Vancouver-$550,000.
Average yearly wage in Vancouver $56,000.
nova wrote:
Can you tell I rent in Greater Vancouver?
Its cause of those stupid flag patches they put on everything when they go abroad.... 'we're not american'
maybe not but you'd be speaking russian or japanese if it were for your friendly southernly neighbors...
//rant off...
EHP,
Yes, and a white buffalo was spotted running down Pennsylvania Ave early this morning.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
You're absolutely right, EHP, but I think Canadians suffer from the same sense of misplaced security in historically-low interest rates. Even if our policies might be a tiny bit tighter than our southern brothers and sisters, the root cause--low rates--and multi-year economic growth has really given people a false sense of security. Canada is a resource and manufacturing-oriented country, with associated booms and busts. We just went through a wicked boom, so it would make sense for people to anticipate a bit of a pull-back.
But no, I don't get that impression from anyone I talk to. It's
as far as the nose can smell.
Has anyone seen equivs of CRs graphs for price-to-rent ratio and price-to-median income for Canada? (noob, I assume you know I was full of
above)
The Canadian version of TARP was the federal government outright buying MBS from CHMC at face value to the tune of $125B.
The bubble has a long way to go... I am still renting, and have saved enough to buy flat out. Yet, I won't. On Principle.
nades wrote:
Thank you. Here's some more oil and water for your troubles.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Yeah right. Might as well make something up about a Republican Senator from Massachusetts.
Just a howdy and good night to all.I just waved goodbye to the 5, 8 year old girls I had here all day.time to straighten things up,thank God for my 5hp shop vac.
for those who want to understand what Vancouver is
here is a map of Metro Vancouver, 2.1mn people (these are separate municipalities, they do share road/bridge/transit planning and funding through the group called Translink). The city of Vancouver itself is only 600k people and 44 sq miles (including a big chunk that are parks). Point is that you can get some extreme if comparing from city to city
http://www.cbc.ca/bc/features/civicvote2008/images/map.jpg
below is an animated map of the population density from 1991-2006
Animated Map: Sprawl and Smart Growth in Greater Vancouver, BC
—
Sightline Institute
"maybe not but you'd be speaking russian or japanese if it were for your friendly southernly neighbors"
and please make sure to remind us again and again.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I lived near Langley in 1998, and went back for the first time in over a decade last year. I was gobsmacked at how they had turned that sleepy town/region into a suburban nightmare in only 10 years.
Rumor Mill
UrbanSurvival | Financial News of the Second Great Depression
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Just remember: "Omen" spelled backwards is ...
From a careful perusal of this blog and youtube, I think it's apparent that all male Canadians are comedians and the women are singers.
Any female Canadian commenters in this place?
JP wrote:
I certainly did, but you gave me an excuse to go on a rant
My Grandma was a Canadian. As soon as Gramps died she went back to Canada. She never came back either. Probably the health care thing.
As i was hitting send I had deja vu.... Opps... I think that means I've offically run out of canned material... Cheers!
nova wrote:
She died in the waiting room? Poor thing.
Glad to hear it. I will be listing as soon as the Olympics are done.
tg wrote:
Can anyone make heads or tails out of the above? "Battery charger" doesn't quite take my breath away.
sdtfs wrote:
I gave her the thumbs-up when I was sitting on her death panel, so my hands are clean.
"nova wrote:
Probably the health care thing.
She died in the waiting room? Poor thing."
she probably had to file for bk over healthcare in the us and couldn't afford the ticket back.
The interesting thing in our area is how little turnover there is. Our Crescent has 75 homes on it and since we moved in 3 years ago a grand total of 4 houses have changed hands (prices in the 275-325,000 range for a 3-4 bedroom 2 storey w/basement). Anything below $250K goes very fast as the monthly payments with a 3% mortgage are less than renting.
Cheap money is very enticing to many. Unfortunately most don't realise that times of cheap money are when you should be paying down debt, not layering it on. They will learn soon enough I guess.
JP wrote:
If it's any good we'll just reverse-engineer it and sell them cheap copies.
No, it's hard to believe but she just liked Canada better. She was old and probably didn't understand what a privilige it is to be an American.
how is this even possible?
wpw wrote:
Uh, you may want to list it a week or two before then.
Just sayin'.
JP wrote:
Phlogiston conversion at over unity rates. IOW hokum.
Further down the guy says: When the announcement comes, we're not looking for the Chinese to sell it as an 'over-unity device' (produces more energy than consumed), but simply they plan to call it a 'battery charger' and thus not offend conventional paradigm adherents who would have a problem acknowledging something out of their immediate understanding.
OK, I assume that it's a misnamed battery. ("produces more energy than consumed" sounds suspiciously close to language meant to mislead those who do not understand thermo.)
billwilson wrote:
Your comment was correct, before the wholesale bailouts. Nowadays it is always better to increase debt. Just make sure that you don't have to repay it. Shouldn't be difficult.
Sensible lending standards help reduce bubbles, and especially help reduce the financial fallout, but they certainly aren't enough to stop bubbles. Spain had a whopper in spite of 20-30% down rules. The advantage is that their financial system is holding up pretty well.
noob goldberg
I don't disagree at all. Rates aren't going to go lower without something worse happening in conjunction. Carney is right that a huge number of households would go bankrupt if/when rates rose. However because of the variation, the trigger cause and timing could differ. Like a fall in oil prices could pop Calgary, but cheaper oil/gasoline combined with a weaker exchange rate would be beneficial to Southern Ontario and delay a pop there.
What I worry about most is the informal lending. Like parents who lent their children significant down payments in a combination of more attractive investment, and belief that you could be priced out forever.
I can guarantee you there will be major disappointment in the people Harper appointed to an overhaul of the CMHC.
I'm less worried about Canadian banks. Their number one differentiating factor internationally was their deposit:loan ratios, and they still have that thanks to a captive market. MBS losses would mostly accrue to the CMHC. Their biggest risk would have been their ABS which seems to be behind them. Definitely worried about the insurers though. Worried about anything that features a 'guarantee' in association with a financial product.
Will be interesting to see who was doing what when it all unfolds. Locally...
The role of drug money in real estate as both investment and money laundering is one thing.
In Vancouver the number of foreign investors and/or foreign mortgages is significant for downtown condos (but domestic investors and domestic mortgages overwhelm them at the city level)
JP wrote:
What, so it's a perpetual motion machine? Like the drinking bird?
I'll take 10!
Rob Dawg wrote:
I was thinking that water driven internal combustion engine that General Patton had the plans for when he met his untimely demise.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I put it more charitably than dawg, who's a faster typist by one post. shakes fist
pavel.chichikov wrote:
1.5 M jobs lost?
A big factor in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Montreal is immigration. Canada adds almost 1% of its population every year through immigration and most goes to those 4 cities creating new housing demand each year. Apparently more than 50% of Toronto's population was not born in Canada.
noob goldberg wrote:
Hey! Don't throw the bird out with the bath water! That is a completely valid method of energy generation.
I myself want to go out and raise VC money to create a energy facility powered by a beach full of giant dunking birds.
My company will be named Big Bird Energy.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
That was an excellent summary, EHP, and matches my thoughts as well, although I really haven't paid attention to Harper and the CMHC, with the exception of the MBS buyout. Similarly, I have no experience with Vancouver other than a brief 8 month sojourn there, but I have the bad feeling that Ontario is due for a repeat of the early-mid 1990s, at the very least. And probably much worse, now that there's no wiggle room to lower interest rates.
Interesting Times wrote:
1) The government bought $66bn
2) Since they already guaranteed them outright, the act didn't take on additional risk. What's more it actually earned them significant positive carry.... which is why I don't think we should have a national mortgage insurer, it doesn't make sense. Unlike Bernanke, this actually amounts to a pure liquidity operation
Canadian mortgages total $940bn
CMHC has $480bn of mortgages guaranteed, and $149bn worth in its portfolio
(figures are rough, from recent news articles, thought the CMHC had a much larger share of the market though)
Big Bird Energy.
Where Yellow helps make Green!
JP wrote:
It's about time some "Can Do" people started posting here. I'm tired of all this "We're Doomed" garbage
I will instruct HR to offer you our VP of Marketing position. I hear you have excellent writing skills.
JP wrote:
What, so it's a perpetual motion machine? Like the drinking bird?
Hey! Don't throw the bird out with the bath water! That is a completely valid method of energy generation.
I heard you can make a great battery by hooking up your
to your 
using your 
.
coming. 
I think I hear the
The $125B figure is what I saw floating around. I expected you refine it
Thanks. Still a horribly unfair situation for those of us looking for affordable houses....
JP,
I have been looking for something like this to invest the remaining years of my life in.
Can we set it up in Canada? That way we can say "CanaDO!"
billwilson wrote:
It truly is incredible, actually. While I'm all for families staying together, Canada has no mechanism to ensure that immigrants spread out across the country, so they almost exclusively end up in the regions you identified. I've spent a good deal of time in Mississauga and Brampton, and an entire portion of north-west Toronto has become almost exclusively Punjabi. I've heard similar reports about Richmond, British Columbia during the Hong Kong immigrant surge.
Is it some sort of faux pas to direct immigrants to less-demanded locations?
Is it some sort of faux pas to direct immigrants to less-demanded locations?
Yes, you need a certain population level to support Dollar Stores.
nova wrote:
That's a great idea! Our current CANDU nuclear reactor program is awfully shaky these days, and it would be a huge leap forward to replace those dirty heavy-water fission reactors with acres of clean, mesmerizing drinking birds.
I'll start on the Government grant applications immediately. No sense using our own money.
JP wrote:
As long as the Republicans have suspended the Second Law of Thermodynamics, why can't we?
From http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf (Warning: PDF)
6th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey:2010
Housing markets ranked by severity of housing unaffordability, using median multiple (median house price/median household income), Q3 2009, major metro markets
Top 20 Ranking
1 Canada Vancouver 9.3
2 Australia Sydney 9.1
3 Australia Sunshine Coast 9.0
4 Australia Gold Coast 8.6
5 United States Honolulu, HI 8.2
6 United Kingdom Bournemouth 8.1
7 Australia Melbourne 8.0
8 Canada Victoria 7.9
9 Australia Wollongong 7.5
10 Australia Adelaide 7.4
11 Australia Newcastle 7.2
12 United States Santa Cruz 7.2
13 Australia Darwin 7.1
14 Australia Mandurah 7.1
15 United Kingdom London (GLA) 7.1
16 Australia Bundaberg 7.0
17 United States New York 7.0
18 United States San Francisco, CA 7.0
19 Australia Perth 6.9
20 Australia Hobart 6.8
National Medians (median house price/median household income) Q3 2009
Australia 6.8
Canada 3.7
Ireland 3.7
New Zealand 5.7
United Kingdom 5.1
United States 2.9
The authors’ explanatory bias is towards restrictive land availability, supply/demand factors. My view of Oz: however you want to dice it, it’s a residential (and commercial) property price bubble fuelled by a historic debt/credit bubble. Local equivalents of HAMP merely serve to extend and pretend. Our property market implosion too will be epic. With respect to the OZ property market, reading CR is like gazing into a translucent crystal ball.
Some Canadian house price data/review
Relatively impartial
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/
Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate
What realtors have to say
CREA
MLSLink HPI® | Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
What the banks have to say
http://www.td.com/economics/special/pg1209_resale.pdf
http://www.scotiacapital.com/English/bns_econ/retrends.pdf
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdf
CMHC's stuff
Forecasts and Analysis | CMHC
noob goldberg wrote:
Charter of Rights and all that. Though I'm sure we'll figure out some way around it, we just have to get our Supreme Court to follow your example....
nova wrote:
But think of all those small rural cities that don't have eight dollar stores in a three block radius! It's not the immigrants fault they don't know that there's a severe shortage of dollar stores in Brandon, Manitoba, or Yellowknife, Northwest Territories.
I can't speak for Toronto, but I did look at immigration's impact on Vancouver in 2007... not behind this boom
If you guys really want to do it in the Great White North, sure. But I have to say, I was hoping for crowds of bikini clad women on the beach next to the birds. (I'll leave that out of the biz plan that we submit to the VCs. If they're smart, they'll just assume it.)
Anyway,
In honour of Canada, I'm adopting British spellings and ending my comments in 'eh'.
I don't think Canada can be evaluated in its own terms. Presently, there is no way that the Windsor-Toronto corridor won't feel continued pain from our auto sales reductions. Calgary still has a lot of housing to build. I can't speak to Vancouver. Montreal and the rest of the French block is still like upstate NY, is it not? eh?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Agreed, and I didn't intend to give that impression. I would consider the impact of immigration into Toronto to be subservient to the manufacturing boom precipitated by the favourable exchange rate and strong American economic conditions through 2007.
And I certainly was also not intending to appear xenophobic, if I came across that way. In no way to I propose restricting immigration, as we certainly have plenty of space to provide to anyone looking for a better, but probably chillier, life. But I do recall that the government in most other immigration waves--in the 19th and 20th centuries, for example--played a strong role in directing new immigrants to various regions.
However, I'm also horribly ill-informed on this issue, and I apologize to the commentariat for making this painfully obvious. I was simply going off of my observations from a few years of driving around Toronto and surrounding areas in a tractor-trailer
sdtfs wrote:
My sister Avril and I believe you are correct.
badger wrote:
Agreed. And since that corridor accounts for a good 20% or more of the population of Canada, it'll have some economic and political ramifications.
I don't care where immigrants locate. What I would like to see is new immigrants engaging more with the wider community. It's possible for them to stay within essentially a transplanted community that is cut off from the rest of society. I don't mind people maintaining their languages, cultures, celebrations, etc... but I don't like to see them unable to do more than that. I think government has a role to play in bridging that divide to everyone's benefit. As in not just spending money for subsidized language courses, but simply making information available to allow for a smooth transition. There's a lot to improve with the immigration system though, everything is an afterthought with it at best
Southern Ontario was gifted with the auto-pact and NAFTA, now that it counts for less the rest of Canada has to carry more of the tax(/equalization) load
nova wrote:
Candu is the name of the nuclear reactors we sell all over the 3rd world so we can then sell them our easily accessible uranium.
CANDU reactor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I've got an April story believe it or not, and a Nelly Furtado one
Wow, thanks for that MS and tg..
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Thank you for expounding that point. This was precisely what I was trying to get at, the tendency to build--essentially--expat enclaves within a specific city. Canada has never been an American-like melting pot, but these cultural silos have started taking on a life of their own.
It is a complex problem.
I agree that there is a housing bubble in many parts of Canada. The prices in Vancouver (and the entire lower mainland) are just nuts, and I have been expecting a crash there for a long time and have been warning members of my family (who work in construction there). The fact that the bubble appears intact means, of course, they no longer take seriously anything I have to say.
Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Toronto and to a lesser extent Winnipeg are, in my view, also in bubble territory. The fact that the banks are publicly asking the federal government for stricter rules on mortgages means they are convinced there is a bubble, and if the banks recognize a bubble it also means that it is waaaay too late to close that barn door.
Rock bottom interest rates as a response to the crisis last year really juiced housing prices in Canada because it dramatically lowered rates for variable rate mortgages (generally tied to the prime bank rate (for example prime - 1) and the prime rate tends to follow the bank of Canada discount rate). Suddenly people could "afford" much more expensive housing, driving prices up. I think this little game is about to end.
Rust Blight?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I drive through Napanee monthly, and even grew up a few minutes from her hometown, but I don't have any Avril stories. Do tell.
I'm listening
AECL does have stuff worth selling, their #1 advantage is delivering on time and on budget with good operating records, they just have too many masters to make happy compared to who they are competing against
Kind of like Saab aerospace if they also had government ministers rewriting the designs every year
Dr N wrote:
You know how I convinced the older members of my family that there was a bubble? 3/4 of new jobs since 2001 for BC were created in the construction sector (at least that was true a few years ago)
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
And Candiru is the name of an Amazonian parasitic catfish that follows the scent of urine to wedge itself in the gills of larger fish, locking its spines to secure itself. Unfortunately, it has been known to mistakenly lodge within a human urethra, with painful consequences.
Just thought you'd like to know.
Candiru - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
also I should add for the non-Canadian readers
The standard mortgage in Canada is, or at least was, a 30 year amortization with interest rate resets every 5 years. A 30 year fixed rate mortgage doesn't exist
( samples: Overnight averages for mortgages )
Oops, baby crying, gotta run. Then I should go to bed.
Take a bubble state, any bubble state and compare those job rates back about five years ago...
Calgary and Edmonton may be inflated, but I wouldn't consider them bubble territory because there is so much housing infrastructure that needs to be added, at least that's my understanding on the situation. I think they are a class difference from Winnipeg where the new construction is more of a vanity play of not wanting to live in old neighborhoods with tight lots. Edit: It seems like the latter was more common in the US, particularly in the Midwest.
noob goldberg wrote:
Canada has never been an American-like melting pot, but these cultural silos have started taking on a life of their own. It is a complex problem.
Do you see Anglo-Canadians leaving urban centers, and fleeing to say, Waterloo, in order to have the 70s-era comfort of familiar surroundings that no longer avail in Toronto? I believe my in-laws have done this. I can't say I blame them -- but gray skies and strip malls anchored by Zeller's just don't do it for me. I'll fight to the death to keep shopping on Yonge St. with the thin, lovely east Asians. I'll gnaw their lovely thin fingers off the sales sweaters at the Eaton's Center Benneton's on Boxing Day. I'll never give in -- but I think my folks may have.
billwilson wrote:
Same as Cali I suppose.
good for you Tom...In youth we find hope....
All you folks in last thread raggin on the Who are funny. I would guess not one of you could get on the stage and outdo them....
The who had more musical talent then 100 bands today...and all of us...
commercials were the worst ever....
Enjoyed the patientrenter vs liz last thread....
No one has any right to a modification...make it universal or scrap it....rewarding bad decisions is the downfall of this country..
foreclosures worked forever....just because millions of people bet doesnt mean millions should welch on that bet...
Just too many crybabies in the US now....
the war is over, it has ended Allen M...Bankers won, cheaters prospered and reality was put on a shelf in the back of the garage...
I will join in the debtors revolution soon with tons of free space on cc cards and a couple home purchases...I look forward to not being able to afford any of them and chapter 7 soon....
I am reliably informed you cannot have a bubble without Fannie and Freddie, or the FHA, or the Fed. Now you guys don't have any of these do you? You're feeling a little envious because we get all the worldwide press. C'mon, admit it.
noob goldberg wrote:
Yes, but certainly not new. US cities that experienced euro migration in the 19th and early 20th century had major ethnic conclaves. Chicago had more greeks than Athens. Poles, Germans, Italians, Hungarians, Scandavians et. al. all had first generation ethnic fortresses. By the third generation, the ethnic settlement blocs are gone, led by the 2nd gen. Maybe stagnant economies that don't provide opportunities will change this, but history is against the ethnic clustering.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
reality was put on a shelf in the back of the garage...
It's not nice to fool mother nature... and she bites back with sharp, pointy teeth...
A lot of the culture talk presupposes a Canadian culture. What's the old joke? Canadians have British food, French economy, and American culture, or something like that.
The enclave mentality in Canada is really nothing new. Toronto used to have it's China town downtown but it moved up to North York in the 80s and downtown China town became primarily Vietnamese.
Windsor, Ontario had it's Vietnamese enclave while I was growing up there.
Toronto also for decades has had separate enclaves downtown of primarily Russian, Italian and other various European/Eastern European enclaves. The older people there also speak very little English.
The only with the newer enclaves in the last 20 years is that they are much more noticeable due to the ethnic makeup versus a lot of the European enclaves that grew up in the 40s through 60s.
Most of Calgary's building was pure sprawl, so its outer reaches will fall much harder because the commuting cost/time remains but the 10% discount relative to a house closer to the city center shrinks and a further outright price decline must make up for it. All the seasoned Calgarians know about boom/bust, it's not forever but it can be devastating
Well, we have CMHC, a mini Fannie and Freddie. And Mark Carney, head of the central bank who is ex-GS. As if anyone can ever be ex-GS.
Dr N wrote:
I'm erring on the side of hope for Mark Carney. He's been very reasonable so far
Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse, this via Zero Hedge.
China’s hawks demand cold war on the US - Times Online
Folks, I'm telling you: they'd better start bringing it all back, and very quietly, while there's still time.
A little T selloff from China would bring warm fuzzies to Bernanke.
"As a crescendo of strident nationalistic rhetoric swirls through the Chinese media and blogosphere, American officials seem baffled by what has gone wrong and how fast it has happened."
The Chinese government needs a bogeyman to pin their trouble on. No doubt this is a govt run campaign.
SNAFU wrote:
Nope: California shows increase in native population - SFGate
yep....
north shore Hawaii 10-12 ft will do that fast....dont get caught inside....
mp - bring what back?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Illegal immigrants don't count as "native".
mp wrote:
China's populace doesn't feel they get they often get the chance to have their voices not only heard, but listened to
The result is a mob mentality where they talk a lot of shit.
Besides analyzing the power groups that matter in China, the truth is the US would still kick China's ass in a cold war scenario. They do not have a grasp of running politics outside their borders yet. They've been trying hard in Africa, but I'm not optimistic their labor exporting approach will be successful over time once the reactionary glow wears off in partnering with them. If they can keep Sudan and have it resemble something orderly for a few years, maybe I'll change my mind then. Even the French are more empathetic in their ventures
This is all neither here nor there. Developments with Pakistan, Myanmar, or Taiwan are much more immediate and important.
badger wrote:
Q: What's the difference between an American and a Canadian?
A: The Canadian doesn't know he's an American yet.
Dr N wrote:
The production.
"American officials seem baffled by what has gone wrong and how fast it has happened."
All these officials need to do is
A). Read up a bit on Chinese history
B). Hire a few Chinese laymen to explain to them what's going on
C) get their heads out of their ass and accept that Chinese can be as nationalistic as Americans and many of them both in the Administration and on the fround are not interested in duplicating our brand of capitalism and democracy.
mp wrote:
From the article:
“We have nothing to be afraid of. The North Koreans have stood up to America and has anything happened to them? No. Iran stands up to America and does disaster befall it? No.”
This sounds sadly familiar.
Greek Ouzo crisis escalates into global margin call as confidence ebbs - Telegraph
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
EHP, I don't give a rat's ass about China's populace.
But, when a major general in the Chinese army talks, I listen.
The reason I listen is because generals don't have any goddamned opinion that hasn't been cleared by higher authority.
the comments below the article MP posted are an interesting read themselves....
Obama might want to read sun tzu again-fast
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
It's unlikely that "fast" matters at this point.
more important internationally will be energy and other commodity exports from Central Asia, Russia will have China beat there
the biggest development for Africa will be logistics and non-commodity exports
India's got a lot of paradoxes, very interesting set of strengths and weaknesses
South America, anything is possible
i hate to admit it, but I'll be laughing my ass off when the huge investments made by US firms in China to get around their union bogeymen turn out to be money down the drain. Wanna bet they'll be asking Uncle Sugar to replace what they will have lost out of the Treasury?
think of all the machine tools and whatever we stripped out of our factories and sent to China, which will be melted down to build aircraft carriers and submarines.
All those shorts closed at the end of the day Friday? We may see them again real soon
I half expected a Sunday ECB announcement with some sort of vague promise to aid greece but they didn't even do that much. Monday may be interesting.
Obamas cabinet is reactionary......it does not bode well when dealing with China....distractions from attaining a goal is something they have no idea about.....thier focus is amazing....their work ethic is second to none....their discipline is to be envied....
this I learn everyday from my chinese fiance...I have great respect for what they accomplish without fanfare....
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China’s hawks demand cold war on the US - Times Online
true...
Here's a nice place 45min southeast of Vancouver for a cool $749k.
Includes a nice view of Boundary Bay and the US/Canada border.
1008 sq ft. Rented for 'an economical $1200/mo'.
No thanks, I'll rent!
noob, I was expecting to hear something too. Maybe a nothingburger.
mp
I missed that a Major-General said that quote. Let's see what that means, because it's not the first time I've heard a relatively ignorant/reactionary opinion from the PLA. 7th highest of 10 ranks. Don't know how many total, but there are 2.6mn in the PLA. I thought of the purges and how old the oldest PLA officers would be. ( PLA Uniforms and Insignia ) Well they abandoned ranks from 1955-1985, so it would seem there are a lot of greenhorns as officers if the ranks were only coming back 25 years ago.
So I wouldn't assume that their military today is like the military you know in which everything is first cleared with the higher ups. I don't think such comments are unprecedented for the PLA (there is a lot of brainwashing about Taiwan), let alone actions (eg arming the Arab Sudanese who are fighting the American armed African Sudanese)
If you want to worry about the PLA, talk about the industrial espionage, or the electronic warfare. Didn't they seize an American surveillance plane over the South China Sea in 2001 and over take weeks going through it?
re: the threats, They're already the world's low-cost supplier of arms, have been for many years. Can't threaten what you already do. Furthermore, their interests lie much closer to home. One step at a time.
Major F'ing turn-around for the F'ing Canadians ehhh
See: "Canada gained almost three times as many jobs as expected in January, led by part-time positions for youth, pushing the unemployment rate down to the lowest since September."
"Employment for people aged between 15 and 24 improved by 29,300 positions, led by a 25,800 gain in part-time work. The unemployment rate for that group fell to 15.1 percent, from 16 percent in December"
Average hourly wage growth decelerated to 1.8 percent in January from a year ago, Statistics Canada said, compared with 2.4 percent in the previous month. It was the slowest pace of wage growth since June, 2003. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said yesterday that slowing wage growth will help restrain inflation...
Go buy a fucking house hosers .... see if
gives a crap if you can't pay for it with yer F'ing scant wages and high-on-the-hog-frozen-ice-headed-life-styles ... I mean gads, if all it takes is a no-doc loan to get a house in Canada -- count me in baby!
more china news..
Chinese Depression: Will Its Massive Foreign Reserve Hoard Save the Country's Economy? -- Seeking Alpha
China and the U.S.: Playing Chicken with Exports -- Seeking Alpha?
People's Bank of China Currency Reserves: Biggest Bubble of All Time? -- Seeking Alpha?
noob goldberg wrote:
Of course you can go to the chronically depressed maritimes (New Brunswick,Nova Scotia,Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland).
Given they have been depressed for a long time housing should be relatively cheap there, but of course no really big cities in any of these locations. Also not a lot of industry.
Sardonic wrote:
Includes a nice view of Boundary Bay and the US/Canada border.
Been talking to a few homeowners in my area. Most don't know about the meltdown in California, or if they do, figure it's "just subprime". Most in modest homes have been offered $600k-700k for a tear-down. New 3800 sq ft places backing onto a Safeway loading zone all sold for about $1.1 million. One half-mile block has 3 lots with unfinished houses and 3 more lots freshly flattened.
Ok,
Back to work ...
YouTube - The Yardbirds - Heart Full Of Soul
Canada has an abundance of:
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Uh, yeah.
EHP, you're slaying me with the "greenhorn" stuff.
Jesus.
We had this same conversation last week about immigrants in California. Give it 3 generations and the kids will integrate by themselves. They'll have to because they won't be able to speak the language of their grandparents anymore.
People will move to where they can get a job and for immigrants with poor English and limited skills, it's easier to get a job in an area with other immigrants. You can always open a restaurant or some type of small business catering to the immigrant community which doesn't require fluent English. Force them into the wilderness and they're more likely to end up on welfare.
Their kids are going to go to UBC or UoT and at that point they can fan out across the land.
For all the talk of the American melting pot, it hasn't been that true in history. Recent immigrants always concentrate into small areas. Time and nostalgia make us forget that, though.
I saw Gordie Howe score twice in a game.
mp
You don't think there is a difference between someone who grew into the job over 30 years and 4 wars, versus someone probably half the age, fast tracked to fill the ranks from scratch and no war experience?
Gimme a break, furthermore in case you misunderstood what I wrote, I missed the quote entirely. I skimmed that article and missed it entirely.
Given the context of the US selling arms to Taiwan from a Chinese perspective, of course they're going to be offended from top to bottom. If they wanted to piss off the US in return, they would just ship some free stuff to Venezuela (their budget is already spoken for, on arms from Russia). Really, there's nothing shocking about that article to me. The story is only really interesting from a Taiwanese perspective. The rich guys who run the country have nothing against closer ties with China because it provides them with business opportunities. However, they'll be damned if they lose any property as a consequence. So they do conflicting things like putting a pro-unification in power while getting this arms deal. Hong Kong autonomy might suffice if they didn't give up ownership for leases.