Deflationary Jane - I do live near you. I live in Davis. Throw me an e-mail, by all means.
Hoops, idle curiosity here - any particular campaign setting that you play? Something custom and homegrown I bet
Well, to be technical, I say we were playing D&D because it is the most widely recognized brand name, not because we were actually playing D&D. We were playing a 1994 release from White Wolf called "Mage: The Awakening." Custom world, custom rules, especially regarding other supernaturals, to preserve the surprise. One of the players had been turned into a vampire by an ancient book, in a world naive to vampires (no mythology, no buffy the vampire slayer TV show, etc.), the other players are trying to figure out what happened to him and what the properties of his unique affliction are. In our most recent encounter, the players were foolish enough to procure a goat for him to vampirize to test whether non-human blood would work. They drained the goat, left it in another room, and returned to find that it had risen and escaped through a plate glass window into the dark, rainy streets. Now they have to find the goat before it attacks anyone and creates more vampires, while dodging mafia hit men who are after one of the players, who robbed a casino in his back story.
Why did the medieval history buff drop out. I mean he must have known he'd never get a job from the beginning.
There are still jobs and tenured professorships out there, but you've got to be brilliant to get them. Fortunately, my friend is absolutely brilliant, so I encouraged him to go for it. It wasn't for him, it turns out, so he has withdrawn to pursue sound engineering and his new past time of starving.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote: White Wolf called "Mage: The Awakening." You rebel. Though I was a fan of AD&D's Planescape setting, I lost interest in bog-standard AD&D after 3rd Ed came out.
The vampire goat anecdote -- LOL, spreading the gospel of CR among the highly-intelligent unemployed educated masses?
Now they have to find the goat before it attacks anyone and creates more vampires, while dodging mafia hit men who are after one of the players, who robbed a casino in his back story.
You know, if you just change vampires to zombies, I think you can reuse your post to describe AIG.
Hoopajoops wrote some twaddle about Myanmar's model being unsustainable.
based on what evidence? I have spent a fair amount of time in that country
and I sure don't see it. get out of the house, get on a plane and do the necessary
spade work.
...
caught an interesting interview from Davos with Rose and Something About Larry...
one moment where Charlie nailed him and he showed his Chiclet sized razor sharp teeth...
hopefully, I can make it into a biting black mash-up on Now is the Summers.of my discontent.
...
strange - I thought the head count on Khmer Hottie YouTube - Fast Cars would be higher here on CR with testosterone level up for the Bowl. (broward, no comment?... wait till you see Larry Summers in a Speedo....)
Nytol
short nap... and Beer
duke
Awesome summary post, CR. I can't recall, from the heydays of newspapers and magazines, ever reading an economic report summary in print that was both so concise and yet so packed with data.
Leaving the forest for the trees, the scariest part for me was:
According to the BLS, there are a record 6.31 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.1% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948)
It will be interesting to see if the citizens of Greece force their government to repudiate the debt. EU citizens are less sheeple like the the American sluggard.
According to the BLS, there are a record 6.31 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.1% of the civilian workforce.
after the super bowl is over, I'm have a super telemarketing party to all my friends....it will be centered around not paying their mortgage because if deals that comrade kristina (good for her) received are out there, everyone should get a slice of that pie....
I wonder why a discrimination suit hasn't been filed by responsible homeowners and former foreclosure victims of the last 20 years....
Closer inspection of a photo of Sarah Palin, during a speech in which she mocked President Obama for his use of a teleprompter, reveals several notes written on her left hand. The words "Energy", "Tax" and "Lift American Spirits" are clearly visible. (Huff Post)
I was on a week long backpack in the Sierra with 4 friends, bagging peaks...
One of my friends is an avid telemark skier and he kept telling another friend on the trip (whom he didn't know) how much he liked telemarking, and the message got misconstrued and for about 3 days of the trip, my friend thought he was a slimy telemarketer, until we cleared things up.
I know it well. I was at the first sandbox as a mere pup of 14. Though I don't play anymore, my friends still do. Someday I will make it to pensic, some day. I'm just waiting for the dates to coincide with with ratdog or phil shows so I can pig out on all my vices at once.
Just to set the record straight from the thread last night. I have been around since before Tanta showed up in 2006. I had not posted for a long, long time though, partially because I didn't have time to and because I was too lazy to sign up to Hoocoodanode. Also, it is easy to get wrapped up in message boards and lose track of time.
Spuderik, you'll get the hang of this place eventually. Just sit back, relax, and scurry over to your local walmart and count the number of aisles to see whether elves are secretly reducing standing inventory in the middle of the night. You'll fit right in.
ou know, someone smart could modify call of cthulhu to modern day bankerism (or even steam punk monopolists) because the result is the same: once you understand the plot, you need to roll to save your sanity >; )
I predicted that the Federal govt would pay to take down abandoned buildings with leaded paint. While the link may not sound that connected, it is. The EPA has issued new rules for home remodels on pre 1978 homes.
What does that have to do with tearing them down? Most of the homes being sold for under $20k were built before 1978. It doesn't take much more in the way of fees and liabilities to make them worthless.
Wait 12-18 months. Federal subsidies for teardowns will show up.
This country has been distorted and degraded by its fixation on entertainment.
Recently read a brief piece in Newsweek by a psychiatrist (or clinical psychologist) discussing his own bout with depression. One of his symptoms was that he wasn't watching television. I should have thought of that as a symptom of recovery.
Spuderik, you'll get the hang of this place eventually. Just sit back, relax, and scurry over to your local walmart and count the number of aisles to see whether elves are secretly reducing standing inventory in the middle of the night. You'll fit right in.
I don't have a Wal-Mart near me in downtown Seattle, thank goodness. Most western city metropolitan areas are the last bastion of defense against Wal-Mart.
A friend and her husband have 'decided to buy a house'. Over the last week, they are now pre-approved for a loan, and have looked at three houses, and are 'in love' with one particular house.
NW edge of Houston
4/2
Pool
2k sqft (lot is 10k ish I think)
At this rate, they could be moved in, in a couple of weeks... Oh, the house is listing at $180k, which seems high compared to the $170k when I was looking at similar 4/2 houses in Houston in 2006.
That incident has my vote for some sort of observational peak on the blog.
Perhaps label it: Peak observational micro economics.
It's a good start, but you need to find somewhere fit "awesome" in the label.
You know, someone smart could modify call of cthulhu to modern day bankerism (or even steam punk monopolists) because the result is the same: once you understand the plot, you need to roll to save your sanity >; )
Is the ancient one that devours the world credit default swaps, universal default, rate recasting, or sovereign default by the united states? I sure know that when I contemplate the true nature of credit default swaps I lose a whole lot of sanity.
Serious change only comes from the wreckage, as sober folks pick up the pieces.
You are right. I marvel at the people who join the TEA(taxed enough already) party knowing fully well how big US's current debt ? What do these people want to do, go away en masse and start a new country somewhere, fully un-encumbered?! Pandering to craziness is the new new-populism, I suppose.
get out of the house, get on a plane and do the necessary
spade work.
Are you kidding? For US-based analysts? They would probably also have to learn an obscure foreign language.
/snark off
Actually I agree with you about what should be done, but what is actually done is quite different. Many bankers won't even leave New York to go to Atlanta for a bond deal. That's a day trip, with a common language.
At this point, what is to stop people from getting an FHA loan from a bank in an area where that particular bank is not readily foreclosing on properties, make a few monthly payments then stop paying. In essence, get yourself in line for a bailout. Is it possible that people are buying houses right now with that very tactic in mind?
You are right. I marvel at the people who join the TEA(taxed enough already) party knowing fully well how big US's current debt ? What do these people want to do, go away en masse and start a new country somewhere, fully un-encumbered?! Pandering to craziness is the new new-populism, I suppose.
this begs the question why not? why not move away? if the country is not willing to make responsible decisions and doesn't represent your values, then i don't disagree with someone wanting to do so. problem is, i have yet to identify a country that is any better, and i don't really want to leave, i just want it to get better.
What do these people want to do, go away en masse and start a new country somewhere, fully un-encumbered?!
Perhaps they believe that most of our public debt is owed to foreigners (false) and think we should just stiff the bloody foreigners, serve them right for jabbering in their outlandish languages and eating with sticks.
Until most recently (now you need a passport to go to Canada or Mexico) something like 85% of Americans didn't have passports, meaning they've never been anywhere. A good percentage of these people know everything about the French and France, for some reason.
How about massed compulsory calisthenics at the nearest airport? Wind up with a five minute hate.
LOL. Some people will be fine, I see them in the park every morning doing those Japanese-style slow martial arts moves or jogging incessantly up and down the parkways. But those are mostly people who were born and raised to the leisure class or at least upper-middle class comfort. I'm more worried about people who are used to working long hours and suddenly find themselves minimally employed, broke, and depressed.
You are right. I marvel at the people who join the TEA(taxed enough already) party knowing fully well how big US's current debt ? What do these people want to do, go away en masse and start a new country somewhere, fully un-encumbered?! Pandering to craziness is the new new-populism, I suppose.
The frightening future scenario for us is that populism and anger leads to someone we definitely do not want rising to power. Weakened nations are much more susceptible to tyrannical rule. Now, we are far from it, and probably wouldn't have it occur at least for 10-15 years, but post WWI Germany had no idea what was coming in a few decades.
spuderik wrote:
Is it possible that people are buying houses right now with that very tactic in mind?
Nah, too expensive and chancy,...but companies and racketeers now,...
but if people are willing to sacrifice their credit score, they could get a free house (or relatively so) for at least 6 months, and in some cases closer to a year or two. i think this is actually happening, or at the very least a large number of renters are mulling the idea.
What do these people want to do, go away en masse and start a new country somewhere, fully un-encumbered?!
Well, from a credit and debt standpoint, forming a completely new city with no past liabilities could actually be a good idea. The problem is finding a reasonably dense area with homes and jobs that isn't yet incorporated.
i have yet to identify a country that is any better, and i don't really want to leave, i just want it to get better.
Try Belize. They're supposed to have great tacos.
i've been to belize, and aside from great weather, beaches, and snorkeling, there is not much to recommend about it. though who really needs more than beaches and snorkeling?
The brain trust @ Scientology figured out what book stores in NYC the NYT used to gauge book sales way back in the dinosaur age before computers.
Disciples of the dismal scientology would buy copies of Dianetics from a particular chain book-store that the NYT used, and return them to another location for a refund a few days later. This kept the book on the charts for a long time, until somebody figured out their game.
2010 price levels for a huge number of things will be the same as 1996-1996. Thus, the housing, stock market, and many other assets will be at those levels. Oil isn't at those levels, partly because so much of its price is determined by demand outside of the US and FX levels.
For new home construction, it will be in the 1996-98 range.
When you adjust these numbers for inflation, homes will be less expensive than the late 1990s. Heavy intervention might delay that to 2011 or 2012, but we'll get there.
Dont worry about the credit score, its being pushed down the ladder in regards to qualifying....
you can purchase a house with no credit score...with 40% down....
Per last thread...they are opening the spigot to credit mooches right now.....You can write a crafty cry letter and get fica scores reset in 30 days if you know what your doing...most people dont....
helped a guy take his score from 588 to 704 fica this month....started writing creditors and getting removals in December....
Dont worry about the credit score, its being pushed down the ladder in regards to qualifying....
you can purchase a house with no credit score...with 40% down....
Per last thread...they are opening the spigot to credit mooches right now.....You can write a crafty cry letter and get fica scores reset in 30 days if you know what your doing...most people dont....
helped a guy take his score from 588 to 704 fica this month....started writing creditors and getting removals in December....
i have never heard of this. very interesting. i think one of the under-utilized tools is old fashioned letter writing. i got my hilton diamond membership renewed simply by asking in a personal letter, even though i didn't qualify.
When you adjust these numbers for inflation, homes will be less expensive than the late 1990s. Heavy intervention might delay that to 2011 or 2012, but we'll get there.
OK, thanks, I get it now. Back in 2006 or 2007, I predicted that home prices would fall to 1997 prices, inflation-adjusted. Posted on the HBB someplace. Maybe I was too optimistic.
I think I'm going to open the honest guy credit consulting company....
if people understood that paying off multiple small credit cards with balances raised your scores by 20-100 points maybe they would pay them off...creditors don't want that to happnen though....
I have a program that tells me exactly how much higher your score would be depending on releases, balance pay offs etc....
I think I'm going to open the honest guy credit consulting company....
if people understood that paying off multiple small credit cards with balances raised your scores by 20-100 points maybe they would pay them off...creditors don't want that to happnen though....
I have a program that tells me exactly how much higher your score would be depending on releases, balance pay offs etc....
how much do debt settlements affect your credit score? i know a few people who want to strategically default on their credit card debt. they can pay it, but they don't want to and feel like they don't have to because everyone else is getting a bailout. in fact, maybe that is the way to really get politicians/financials attention, if people start to strategically bailout en masse on all sorts of debt.
Hoops, emailed the callout to you.
BTW, I fled Davis a year ago back across the causeway. I'm almost sorry though. Local Davis politics seems to getting real entertaining, makes the house of commons look dull >; )
We have an almost mountain lion-sized bobcat that's occasionally on the prowl around these parts. His left foreleg has diagonal white and gold stripes racing up towards his torso.
just have to be a consultant, not a ripoff credit repair company....bring me your credit report, you can get it free once a year..I'll tell you what you need to attack first, what letters you need to write and give you a 1 page document informing you of your chances of getting auto, mortgage, credit card etc are....
It will be brutally honest....
Like you have no chance in hell of getting this or that....
I think people are ready for honesty....
anyone who goes into credit counseling is immediatly red-flagged and hosed on getting a loan.....such a game....
I never approved any loan with a credit counseling entry on report....
I'd love to hear more about your perfect plan that leaves half the world out of it but I am late for my union meeting.
See you there?
I can't tell if this is supposed to be cute or funny. I thought this was a union meeting, about finance. No membership dues or elections. (Please tip CR in digital currency, using PayPal). If it's sarcasm, and you think the half of the world that has no internet access would be better off avoiding unions, you're a lost cause.
Who said my plan was perfect? Mozilla doesn't have to perfect, just more useful and reliable than Internet Explorer. Or just a cheap alternative to compete in the free market, to keep the internet efficient. My conception for an open source currency is entirely optional, like PayPal. Render dollars unto the IRS. Use work or the open source currency to buy dollars to pay them. Send CR a check if you want, or a glod bar-- just more work for him. Work is time. Time is money. Stay home, gnome.
It's there already. My accepted offer on the house was just 20k over the 1993 sales price. This is a house with a new roof, new Hvac, all the structural in great shape.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote: What good is a credit score if J6P and his fetching bettor half Jane Chardonnay, can't get loans anymore?
Jane Chardonnay sounds too uppity... Jane Boxwine perhaps? You know, that White Zin that comes in a giant box...
if you believe the credit suisse chart, then it looks more like late 2012 is where we will find a bottom. however, there should be a big asterisk in that chart for all of Wells Fargo's Golden West loans. They will not reset/recast until 10 years after origination, so that will probably hit between 2013-2016. Wells Fargo is taking a gigantic risk and hoping that things are better by then, if not, Wells Fargo is going bye bye birdie.
I was in santa cruz mtn range....about 4 miles from housing tract.....little dogs and cats be careful.....we watched each other for 15 minutes...I moved within 25 ft and took one more step...he had his personal space gauge set at 24 ft
Bottom line is, all you have to do is move all the people
out for 10-15 years. People are apparently far more damaging
to wildlife, even mammals than radioactivity.
nope..
just have to be a consultant, not a ripoff credit repair company....bring me your credit report, you can get it free once a year..I'll tell you what you need to attack first, what letters you need to write and give you a 1 page document informing you of your chances of getting auto, mortgage, credit card etc are....
It will be brutally honest....
Like you have no chance in hell of getting this or that....
I think people are ready for honesty....
anyone who goes into credit counseling is immediatly red-flagged and hosed on getting a loan.....such a game....
I never approved any loan with a credit counseling entry on report....
would you approve a loan for someone who had previously strategically defaulted? if that person had several hundred thousand in net worth?
I try to tell people that but they don't listen. I know people who signed up for deals were the counseling service was skimming 15% off the monthly payment. I told them next time, tell me your liabilities and let me at them. Pay off the lowest one, then the next, then the next. I thought everyone knew that.
depends on ltv of purchase....
also bk's related to medical have never caused me an issue....
that makes sense regarding medical. if someone had lots of money but could make a better percentage investing it they would prefer to have a mortgage. i suppose your decisions would work the same for car loans too?
the guy pays the service a lump sum, takes out 15%, then pays off the creditor their portion. Apparently the creditors waved some finance charges and little principle to get this deal. But an individual could get the same deal if they just made the phone calls are were diligent about records.
Reading the book i've been quoting from, the great depression was the end of many different pursuits (i.e. vaudeville), things that were just hanging on by the skin of their teeth financially, and it didn't take long for them to get gone.
I love the "Bank of Cthulhu" idea. Make the premise that Cthulhu is still sound asleep and his minions must destroy the world economy before we find him dozing in the Marianas trench or wherever. LOL.
...the great depression was the end of many different pursuits (i.e. vaudeville), things that were just hanging on by the skin of their teeth financially...
Pretty much. I keep thinking that if a dummy like me knows this, everyone must.
but then again I work with people who haven't reallocated their 401K distributions_ever and they are within 5 years of retirement. These are the same people who talk about American Idle like it's interesting so why am I surprised.
Why should that be striking in DC? Up where I grew up(North Jersey) everybody and their uncle had plows so the roads could be cleared, because it snowed often enough for it to be profitable to do it.
In DC it doesn't snow nearly enough for an ROI on a plow to be profitable.
if people understood that paying off multiple small credit cards with balances raised your scores by 20-100 points maybe they would pay them off...creditors don't want that to happnen though....
I'm more than a little upset at Capital One, because they keep sending my college son offers for credit cards. So, I sent back the statement for a credit card account I have with Capital One with a zero balance, and never needed or used. I wrote on the statement stub: "Please cancel this account."
I got back a letter from Capital One saying you can't do that. You can't cancel a zero balance account by sending back the statement stub and writing on it. You have to fill out and sign a special form.
I'm thinking, the next shoe to drop is some kind of annual fee suddenly showing up on the account.
The doth protest too much ... Palin/Beck 2012 ... YouTube - Give the People what they Want by The Kinks ... teabaggers (heh heh) ... travel is fun ... Colts suck cause they're going to win ... peopleofwalmart are ugly ... and some finacial this and that ... did I miss anything?
I got back a letter from Capital One saying you can't do that. You can't cancel a zero balance account by sending back the statement stub and writing on it. You have to fill out and sign a special form.
Ah, customer retention programs. Just try canceling a Verizon DSL service. There is no form, and they basically will not process your cancellation.
Prices are up in many LA areas! Not sure how this is being manipulated, but I'm sure it is. Anyone?
Individual prices are falling, but the average prices of the units that are selling appear to be rising because none of that stuff was selling at all in the reference period.
I was out with some friends last night and one was talking about how he had let his cable lapse and stopped watching TV because he could download more video from the internet than he had time to watch. Not watching movies anymore wasn't discussed; it's old hat.
Also, I was at Barnes and Noble Friday after work and I could see the effect of the internet on books and music. They'd converted one of the scifi/fantasy shelves from bookshelf-style stock to display (just a few books, turned with the covers facing out, and with lots of empty space). Some of the main floor stock areas had been converted to boardgames (I'm not familiar enough with the entire floor to say what go shrunk). The music section had lost another rack area to movies (like that's going to help ) and what remained was shockingly poorly stocked - I'd say the racks were 1/3 full.
Is that Copperfield-ish area? That sounds like just 249 or 290 in into Houston if that commute is involved...we are fixing to make a low offer on a house in the energy corridor that we have been scoping for some time...the prequal was a snap but it is also some corporate partnership gig between a zombie and the big oil company I work for...
Irony, the power plant that blew up this morning was a brand new plant that was financed by....the It seems everything they touch blows up like our economy.
PIGS will be a because the powers that be will do all they can to spin this as a non-event and then do everything possible to adjust accounting and fabric a synthetic patch-work quilt which will hide the bare-ass pig wearing copious amounts of multi-layered and multi-color psychedelic lipstick, like the little whore that she is!
"To do that, the company has transformed Las Vegas sports betting into something it thinks is akin to derivatives trading. By using financial-markets technology, Cantor allows bettors to wager not only on who might win the game or by how much, but also on whether a team can complete its next pass or make a field goal.
OK, I get it. I like it and will definitely be checking it out. I bet the Mob won't like it so much, though.
So what will the New Wall Street-ified Vegas look like?
Cantor's first move when it took over at the M was to rip out the leather lounge chairs with cup holders and turn the place into something resembling a trading floor.
Bettors now sit in rows of cubicles lined with four screens each. Overhead, a wall of giant monitors flashes the action—though on an October evening, instead of market prices, it was a Monday Night Football match up between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins."
What do these people want to do, go away en masse and start a new country somewhere, fully un-encumbered?
Wonder what percentage of them were readers of the "Left Behind" by LaHaye & Jenkins, the ones that deal w/ Christian dispensationalist End Times Left Behind (series) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ---maybe they're hoping Palin will lead them to that Last Rapture.
Individual prices are falling, but the average prices of the units that are selling appear to be rising because none of that stuff was selling at all in the reference period.
That makes sense, I guess I knew that too, just couldn't put my finger on it. I think that explains why the really high end areas show declines in the charts... still nothing moving. What annoys me is that 99% of the people who get that mass mailed pdf won't question it. They'll just see prices "going up" and use that as a basis for their listing and/or offer prices.
he had let his cable lapse and stopped watching TV because he could download more video from the internet than he had time to watch. Not watching movies anymore wasn't discussed; it's old hat.
If we could get CNN, CNBC, and the Cooking channel on the Internet, we would shut off our cable yesterday. Mrs. LL still watches a few nighttime police procedurals, but those are available over the air, as they used to say.
For books and music, it's all over but the crying for bricks and mortar retail. I just can't be bothered to go through the process of driving and parking around here when I can just surf to Amazon, read reviews and sample the merchandise, then order what I want. Better selection, no surly clerks, no parking fees, no traffic, etc. The same goes for food shopping - other than a monthly trip to Costco for bulk staples, we get everything delivered... at no charge. The only downside is the occasional bungled substitution, like the wrong kind of bread.
Please don't forget as significant today's election in Ukraine.
It is going to be a small margin victory for Yanukovich (a Pro-Russian candidate) or a tie, once the western parts finish reporting
In either case there will be numerous accusation of voters fraud, falsification of results.
The best case is the government paralysis for a few weeks, the worst case is confrontation between Ukrainian West and East.
For books and music, it's all over but the crying for bricks and mortar retail. I just can't be bothered to go through the process of driving and parking around here when I can just surf to Amazon, read reviews and sample the merchandise, then order what I want. Better selection, no surly clerks, no parking fees, no traffic, etc. The same goes for food shopping - other than a monthly trip to Costco for bulk staples, we get everything delivered... at no charge. The only downside is the occasional bungled substitution, like the wrong kind of bread.
This PIGS event wasn't in the model and sill is off the radar, thus dealing with containing this is all about new PR and new ways to bullshit people about the on-going systemic failure of capitalism ... but it's ok, they have it under control!
I saw Rosenberg on bubblevision Friday after the close. He was being ridiculed by 3 bulls, reminiscent of the Schiff attack by housing bulls in '08. Pretty funny. Anyhow...
[Now, since this is a technically-driven market, we are bound to get a 50% reversal of the bear market rally, which would take us to 912 on the S&P 500 — so keep your seatbelts on. We had been warning for a while that too much complacency had set in, and what happens when the market shoots up 70% without taking any serious break along the way? Investors tend to believe that we are into some sustainable new parabolic bull run.”]
I still love going to bookstores, getting a coffee, and browsing through the books. I loved browsing the music too until this week - there is too little that appeals to me left now. I admit I don't buy much anymore though. I went in looking for a book on zero-growth economics. Couldn't find one - the shelves were full of Crash of 2008 analyses, which were of course behind what I can get here. I don't have much time to read anyway.
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said the U.S. is in no danger of losing its Aaa debt rating even though the Obama administration has predicted a $1.6 trillion budget deficit in 2010.
“Absolutely not,” Geithner said, when asked in an ABC News interview broadcast today whether a downgrade is a concern. “That will never happen to this country.”
Why do I have a sinking feeling that this comment will be re-shown in years in the future just like Paulson's comment about Fannie and Freddie's stability and Bernanke's "There's no housing bubble comment."
sm_landlord, apologies for last night, you wrote an extended answer to my query regarding the Chinese debt situation last night, and the moment I finished reading your reply I was pulled away from the computer for the night. Sorry for leaving you hanging, but I really did appreciate your response, and although I'm not too familiar with the Chinese situation your response did mesh with the vague opinion that I had formed.
I saw Rosenberg on bubblevision Friday after the close. He was being ridiculed by 3 bulls, reminiscent of the Schiff attack by housing bulls in '08. Pretty funny. Anyhow...
I encourage you to check out some of the 1929-1932 stock charts, and also the 1989-1992 stock charts in Japan. We have the final leg down coming, and it started at 1150. If we follow the Nikkei path we'll be around 560 in the S&P in about a year. If we follow the Great Depression path we'll be at 210 in the S&P in about two years. My guess is we fall somewhere in between. Japan couldn't hold their markets afloat, and neither will we be able to do so.
Why do I have a sinking feeling that this comment will be re-shown in years in the future just like Paulson's comment about Fannie and Freddie's stability and Bernanke's "There's no housing bubble comment."
That was absolutely the first thing I thought when I read that. I wonder if it will be one of the most recognizable quotes from this period in history? Right along the lines of:
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months." --Irving Fisher
Re: Geithner said: ... Why gads, we have Warren Buffet and all sorts of fuckers like him that own rating agencies -- that are on our F'ing side, what the fuck do you thinks gonna happen, yah think were gonna give ourselves a black eye ... punk, huh, do yah, huh, huh?
From the headline, I thought the article would be about declining school funding to the "good schools" as in more students per classroom. But apparently it's about schools that are closed.
I don't know if I can think of a single professional career besides possibly accounting that doesn't have long phases of 55+ hr weeks, or any retailer, software dev, etc, that doesn't have them. These phases are often in the pre-journeyman phases of a career or business, but they are somewhat inevitable.
The problem is what will happen if we don't? BTW, I think he advocates a 32 hr week, I thought.
I think you're right, he probably did call for 32.
As I was saying to Pavel, my concern is what with people reverting to even more consumption of mindless entertainment, leading to an Idiocracy-like outcome. Entertainment is not going to get any better, and the BS that passes for discussion on MSNBC and Fox is absolutely appalling.
What will happen if we don't? Other than falling wages, I'm not really sure. What do you think will happen?
I'm certainly no China expert, but some things seem obvious to me.
Indeed, it was helpful analysis for me. I'll repost it for the simple reason that I have little else to contribute today; hopefully it won't get lost in noise like it did last night.
The Chinese lending story especially I'd like to hear analyzed by the commentariat.
OK, I'll start. I'm not particularly impressed by the latest news on bad loans in China, as I believe that this has been going on for a very long time, at least as far back as when I visited in 2002, and probably much farther. It's a command economy, and there is a lot of... um... let's just say it's all about who you know. The government is now pulling in the reins on lending a bit, and it's an open question whether or not they can avoid a dramatic problem. With respect to CHina, I am more generally worried about misallocation of resources due to a combination of rapid growth and central planning. It's also unlikely that they can grow domestic consumption fast enough to avoid having to eat the massive overproduction of some things, or convert the entire export manufacturing base for internal consumption. I'm much more worried about their stock market.
FD: Long FXP
It was in response to this story:
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Non-performing loans in China have risen into the “trillions of renminbi” because of poor lending practices, an insolvency lawyer said.
“We work really closely with SASAC, the state-owned enterprise regulator in China, and there are literally trillions and trillions of renminbi of, frankly, defaulting loans already in China that no one is doing anything about,” Neil McDonald, a Hong Kong-based business restructuring and insolvency partner with Lovells LLP, said at an Asia-Pacific Loan Market Association conference yesterday. “At some point there’s going to be a reckoning for that.”
China’s government is tightening controls, including banks’ reserve ratios, to prevent record lending from fueling inflation. The Shanghai office of the China Banking Regulatory Commission warned yesterday that a 10 percent fall in property values would treble the number of delinquent loans in the city. Liu Mingkang, chairman of the CBRC, said Jan. 4 that loans were channeled into stock and property speculation last year, which China has been taking measures to stop. CBRC’s press officer is not immediately available for comment today.
Chinese banks issued a record 9.6 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) of new loans last year as part of a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package aimed at bolstering growth through the global financial crisis.
“At some point in China, maybe it will be two, three or five years, but at some point there will be in the property markets and in the markets generally, there will be rationalization of very poor lending practices,” McDonald said during the panel discussion on restructuring and refinancing at the Global Loan Market Summit in Hong Kong.
Bad Loan Ratio
Over the past decade China’s government has spent more than $650 billion bailing out state banks after years of government- directed lending caused bad loans to balloon. The average non- performing loan ratio at Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp. and Bank of China Ltd. dropped to about 1.6 percent as of Sept. 30 from more than 20 percent before each bank was bailed out, according to earnings reports.
New loans last year helped ignite a Chinese real-estate boom, with prices in 70 cities rising at the fastest pace in 18 months in December.
Should property prices fall 10 percent in Shanghai, China’s second-most-expensive property market, the ratio of delinquent mortgages would almost triple for the city’s banks to 1.18 percent, according to the Shanghai branch of the CBRC yesterday, citing a stress test based on Sept. 30 figures. A 30 percent decline would cause the ratio to jump almost fivefold, the agency said.
Fitch Ratings said Dec. 17 that Chinese banks’ capital strength is probably more “strained” than it appears as lenders use more off-balance sheet transactions to make room for loans.
It was the first time the CBRC announced estimates for how much a property-market slump in Shanghai would hurt banks, underscoring the government’s concern that real-estate speculation may spur bad debts.
The regulator reiterated that banks should monitor property loans more closely and curb lending to developers with weak capital.
The State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission supervises and manages state-owned assets.
The "problem" isn't a 32 hour work week but THE DEBT OWED by the workers that requires 40 hours of work to service.
Coupled with a devaluing currency; I don't see the 32 hour work week occurring.
(sorry 'bout the caps gun; luckily it was set to a 3 round burst)
EDIT: For myself, the following quote in that bloomie story was the most disturbing:
"Liu Mingkang, chairman of the CBRC, said Jan. 4 that loans were channeled into stock and property speculation last year, which China has been taking measures to stop."
GREENWICH, Conn. — After one of the leanest years in memory, life in this upper-crust enclave is slowly returning to normal. The Greenwich version of normal, anyway.
Caterers' cell phones are ringing again. Luxury car dealers are sending the Porsches out for test drives. An architect is booking multimillion-dollar jobs for his "masters of the universe" clients, titans of Wall Street who've made this leafy Connecticut suburb of New York one of the wealthiest towns in the country.
is your family originally from western Ukraine - Lviv perhaps?
No, not from Ukraine
The problem for Ukraine is that there is a huge cultural and economic divide between its East (mostly Russian speaking and many still identifying with Russia, the economy largely focused on exports to Russia) and West (mostly Ukrainian speaking and looking further West, not strongly economically).
Any Ukrainian election without a clear victor is going to result in standoffs.
Dives ate and Lazarus starved
But Dives scraped his platter clean
The dogs that licked the beggar’s wounds
Belonged to Dives and grew lean
The beggar’s heart was small and red
The blood they lapped was thin and sweet—
When Dives’ dogs ate Lazarus
It cost much less than butcher’s meat
But when they broke the beggar’s bones
And licked the marrow from the cracks
The rich man cried and rubbed his hands:
I wish I had poor Lazarus back
For then I’d send my table scraps
To make atonement for my lapse
GREENWICH, Conn. — After one of the leanest years in memory, life in this upper-crust enclave is slowly returning to normal. The Greenwich version of normal, anyway.
Caterers' cell phones are ringing again. Luxury car dealers are sending the Porsches out for test drives. An architect is booking multimillion-dollar jobs for his "masters of the universe" clients, titans of Wall Street who've made this leafy Connecticut suburb of New York one of the wealthiest towns in the country.
Out of curiousity, I wonder what it's like to grow up in that kind of environment? How do the kids turn out? They would have every opportunity, surrounded by other kids also receiving every advantage imaginable. Is there a correlation?
I think a research study examining such a unique environment could produce some fascinating insight into the American dream.
The good news is that the economic crisis is eliminating the divide. Now both sides are poor, hungry and desperate.
Any divide is relative., and the crisis is affecting different parts of Ukraine differently.
Think of its as Greece and Germany voting in the same election, except that the number of votes is about the same
The bad news: they want to join the European Union.
lol actually I've been tagged for a promotion although it's all hush hush. I came from tech where you busted hump to met deadlines and milestones. I'm a bit of a fish out of water and have been told to quit working so hard by some of my peers.
I'd say probably 70% of the campus is just warming a seat until HR admin hits their magic retirement number. But there are some reorgs coming to academic departments that will probably cause a few more old timers to flee even if they don't get the dream package they wanted.
The problem for Ukraine, besides the divide you mention, is that Russia wants it back.
In the same sense as the US wants Mexico to be a close ally.
Putin does not really want to govern Ukraine directly, but he definitely wants to see a friendly government. Again, just like the US and Mexico.
These kids would be a pretty extreme case. Even when their parents fail epically, they get $ million dollar bonuses.
It's true, I agree. But they are also an extreme example of the American Dream, where they have acquired everything their hearts desired. Could the American dream be destroyed if such a study showed that such an environment appeared to be detrimental to successfully raising offspring? I don't know. Just random curiousity.
Russia wants a number of things, none of which it can afford. Ask the Belarus president.
Oh, the Belarussian president will never dare to really anger Putin.
There is an annual ritual of renegotiating the oil+gas deals, and every year Russian gets better terms.
hey guys, Olympics are gearing up, noticeably more people around town, I am grateful for the American people sending a cute NBC producer
If you hear about Vancouver's downtown eastside, skid row, the worst 10 square blocks in North America, ... in the press coverage -- and it's true btw, total zombieland -- here is a film student's documentary on it filmed last December, Streets of Plenty
his approach fluctuates, but watch the whole thing before you form an opinion
They have these spotlights over English bay, connected to the internet, and you can tell them what pattern to make, I think it's fun, Vectorial Elevation - Rafael Lozano-Hemmer
The only economic things I have to add are foreign remittances and money laundering.
Remittances were a key source of foreign exchange money for many countries, and now in some cases people from those countries are doing reverse remittances so the under/unemployed migrant workers can pay their expenses. Central banks of these countries really don't have a good idea what the hell is happening from month to month. They just know the aggregate data reported by their banks on a delay. I think that such countries are much more sensitive to a food price spike than they were in 2007.
Money laundering came up because I very briefly talked to someone whose family used to produce cut flowers. It's not a huge surprise that they couldn't stay in the business between foreign competition to increases in the price of natural gas to heat the greenhouses. The thing I walked away with was the allegation some exporters were money laundering operations. Allegedly a lot of these cut flower export operations are funded by narco money, happy to earn even moderately negative returns. For one, it launders the money through employees while making international payments easy. Two, it provides a legitimate front and is useful politically to be a major legitimate employer.
Flowers need warmth + water and their production is labour intensive. The foreign competition from northern South America has natural heat, and cheap labour. More recent competition from Africa does not have the water, but they're doing it. 3/4 of a cut flower's weight is water, and since they're time sensitive they are usually flown to market and then are distributed in refrigerated trucks. So transportation costs play a big role too.
Cut flowers is an interesting business. Insanely competitive. Perhaps the most advanced logistics and globalized supply chain out there. The Dutch have the top flower market (which makes sense, they are centrally located for distribution to major markets), but I don't see how they can profitably produce flowers outdoors... especially with the more volatile seasons lately.
Mexico, as important as it is, is not as important to the US as Ukraine is to Russia.
If the Mexican government started publicly discussing a possibility of a military alliance with Venezuela, then Mexico would quickly become very important to the US.
Deflationary Jane - I do live near you. I live in Davis. Throw me an e-mail, by all means.
Hoops, idle curiosity here - any particular campaign setting that you play? Something custom and homegrown I bet
Well, to be technical, I say we were playing D&D because it is the most widely recognized brand name, not because we were actually playing D&D. We were playing a 1994 release from White Wolf called "Mage: The Awakening." Custom world, custom rules, especially regarding other supernaturals, to preserve the surprise. One of the players had been turned into a vampire by an ancient book, in a world naive to vampires (no mythology, no buffy the vampire slayer TV show, etc.), the other players are trying to figure out what happened to him and what the properties of his unique affliction are. In our most recent encounter, the players were foolish enough to procure a goat for him to vampirize to test whether non-human blood would work. They drained the goat, left it in another room, and returned to find that it had risen and escaped through a plate glass window into the dark, rainy streets. Now they have to find the goat before it attacks anyone and creates more vampires, while dodging mafia hit men who are after one of the players, who robbed a casino in his back story.
Edit: second.
That's a pretty graphic display of financial bad ju ju.
Out to Lunch!
CR, I'd still like to know who won the new home sales prediction contest for 2008 and 2009. Those December numbers are in.
I have deduced that CR does not work for Barclays. Barclays bans "PIIGS" from notes - Yahoo! News UK
And another thing: People will be watching the so called PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) this week
CR, are you dissing us dagos? (Italy also get equal time in PIIGS)
Or is it a statement that you don't think Italy really belongs in the sov risk mix?
Perhaps we could put tariffs on stuff with lead, melamine or cadmium only.
Why did the medieval history buff drop out. I mean he must have known he'd never get a job from the beginning.
There are still jobs and tenured professorships out there, but you've got to be brilliant to get them. Fortunately, my friend is absolutely brilliant, so I encouraged him to go for it. It wasn't for him, it turns out, so he has withdrawn to pursue sound engineering and his new past time of starving.
...nobody ever expects the Latvian liquidation
No worries.
Yogi's super duper, never to be questioned, open source currency will take care of all this mess.
Does he want to live in my garret and come out to clean every
day. I promise I will feed him.
It looks very premising.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
You rebel. Though I was a fan of AD&D's Planescape setting, I lost interest in bog-standard AD&D after 3rd Ed came out.
White Wolf called "Mage: The Awakening."
The vampire goat anecdote -- LOL, spreading the gospel of CR among the highly-intelligent unemployed educated masses?
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
I really believe that starving isn't a healthy past time. Perhaps he should take up smoking or huffing instead.
CR !!!
Thanks!!!
See the message and email I sent on, "CR's Graphics and HUD's new MindSet !!!!"
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
You know, if you just change vampires to zombies, I think you can reuse your post to describe AIG.
Hoopajoops wrote some twaddle about Myanmar's model being unsustainable.
based on what evidence? I have spent a fair amount of time in that country
and I sure don't see it. get out of the house, get on a plane and do the necessary
spade work.
...
caught an interesting interview from Davos with Rose and Something About Larry...
one moment where Charlie nailed him and he showed his Chiclet sized razor sharp teeth...
hopefully, I can make it into a biting black mash-up on Now is the Summers.of my discontent.
...
strange - I thought the head count on Khmer Hottie YouTube - Fast Cars would be higher here on CR with testosterone level up for the Bowl. (broward, no comment?... wait till you see Larry Summers in a Speedo....)
Nytol
short nap... and Beer
duke
Colts by 10
JP wrote:
Doesn't Apple already claim rights to "iPIGS?"
Awesome summary post, CR. I can't recall, from the heydays of newspapers and magazines, ever reading an economic report summary in print that was both so concise and yet so packed with data.
Leaving the forest for the trees, the scariest part for me was:
The war may end some day, but will the recession?
based on what evidence?
I'm sure the zillions of civilians they have to slaughter from time to time has something to do with it.
It will be interesting to see if the citizens of Greece force their government to repudiate the debt. EU citizens are less sheeple like the the American sluggard.
sportsfan wrote:
That is a brutal number.
Mildly entertaining video recreation of the fall of the house of Lehman, with real Hollywood actors:
zSHARE - qfn-lehbro.flv
warning: popups and popunders
The banks have already failed. It is just a slower and orderly(?) method to deal with situation. A real BFF would have 605.
Luckily for everybody in La Cañada, national health insurance will cover any injuries on account of the mudding.
Elvis<
+1
A look ahead: Everything is fine, your government just has a little snow issue to deal with.
The market will go up, because, well, GS always fades the trend, and doesn't want people to win, ever.
So go short, and watch them ramp the market right back up before the open, as usual.
As for the unemployed, well they can join the for profit tea party conspiracy- or is it just like Amway?
Is the tea party a MLM scheme?
Stay tuned!
Someday this war's gonna end...
after the super bowl is over, I'm have a super telemarketing party to all my friends....it will be centered around not paying their mortgage because if deals that comrade kristina (good for her) received are out there, everyone should get a slice of that pie....
I wonder why a discrimination suit hasn't been filed by responsible homeowners and former foreclosure victims of the last 20 years....
a
+2
you owe me a new monitor >; )
Words are hard.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Not a protected class. Bagholders are not on the list.
Palin/ Beck 2012!
DieBold!
Thought for the day
Women are like phones: They like to be held, talked to, and touched often.
But, push the wrong button and your ass is disconnected
Jane
We have the same friends who hit each other with sticks.
Estrella starts in the morning.
Please don't forget as significant today's election in Ukraine.
Booooo, nasty horrible Colts.
---You're doing it wrong.
I was on a week long backpack in the Sierra with 4 friends, bagging peaks...
One of my friends is an avid telemark skier and he kept telling another friend on the trip (whom he didn't know) how much he liked telemarking, and the message got misconstrued and for about 3 days of the trip, my friend thought he was a slimy telemarketer, until we cleared things up.
Interesting misconception
YouTube - Ukraine is game to you!?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
So it would seem. She had "Budget" crossed off and "WH" next to it.
The only way the pic would have been more amusing is if the word "Teleprompter" were listed.
2010=1996-98
I know it well. I was at the first sandbox as a mere pup of 14. Though I don't play anymore, my friends still do. Someday I will make it to pensic, some day. I'm just waiting for the dates to coincide with with ratdog or phil shows so I can pig out on all my vices at once.
She's cute.
That's it.
Americans like cuteness. Surely it qualifies you to be prez.
Just to set the record straight from the thread last night. I have been around since before Tanta showed up in 2006. I had not posted for a long, long time though, partially because I didn't have time to and because I was too lazy to sign up to Hoocoodanode. Also, it is easy to get wrapped up in message boards and lose track of time.
So the
reference is incorrect. Just FYI.
Buses not running today in DC. Metro employees are not able to get to work because of road conditions. Authorities continuing to evaluate.
Fragility.
AH!
TROLLS!
RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!
Spuderik, you'll get the hang of this place eventually. Just sit back, relax, and scurry over to your local walmart and count the number of aisles to see whether elves are secretly reducing standing inventory in the middle of the night. You'll fit right in.
We deserve better, but not really.
"2010=1996-98"
maybe 1996 BC - or 1996 Japan
Palin is another populist, evangelical poptart that will suck the attention of the mainstream press like a candle eats the oxygen in a sealed room.
Huey Long in a skirt, she will lead us to Argentina, without any catchy tunes.
But hey, give the people what they want!
Serious change only comes from the wreckage, as sober folks pick up the pieces.
So, let us have some more wreckage, but even that will take a while, as the supertanker problem manifests with changing course of this country.
Someday this war's gonna end....
Worked for the big eared wonder we have now
That incident has my vote for some sort of observational peak on the blog.
Perhaps label it: Peak observational micro economics.
Please. This is not new.
I grew up in Balto, and went to school At Catholic U.
DC and Balto ALWAYS freak out with heavy snows.
ou know, someone smart could modify call of cthulhu to modern day bankerism (or even steam punk monopolists) because the result is the same: once you understand the plot, you need to roll to save your sanity >; )
Cassano was definitely using some non-Euclidian geometry.
One of the changes I predicted is on its way.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/living-in-older-home-and-thinking-about.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+(Mish's+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis)
I predicted that the Federal govt would pay to take down abandoned buildings with leaded paint. While the link may not sound that connected, it is. The EPA has issued new rules for home remodels on pre 1978 homes.
What does that have to do with tearing them down? Most of the homes being sold for under $20k were built before 1978. It doesn't take much more in the way of fees and liabilities to make them worthless.
Wait 12-18 months. Federal subsidies for teardowns will show up.
some investor guy wrote:
Do you really think so? It feels more like 1981-83 to me, but harsher.
off topic but
Power plant explosion in Middletown | WTNH.com Connecticut
This country has been distorted and degraded by its fixation on entertainment.
Recently read a brief piece in Newsweek by a psychiatrist (or clinical psychologist) discussing his own bout with depression. One of his symptoms was that he wasn't watching television. I should have thought of that as a symptom of recovery.
Me too.
I foresee housing to remain at 1984 levels for a long time.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
I don't have a Wal-Mart near me in downtown Seattle, thank goodness. Most western city metropolitan areas are the last bastion of defense against Wal-Mart.
Anecdatum on ease of getting loans.
A friend and her husband have 'decided to buy a house'. Over the last week, they are now pre-approved for a loan, and have looked at three houses, and are 'in love' with one particular house.
At this rate, they could be moved in, in a couple of weeks... Oh, the house is listing at $180k, which seems high compared to the $170k when I was looking at similar 4/2 houses in Houston in 2006.
That incident has my vote for some sort of observational peak on the blog.
Perhaps label it: Peak observational micro economics.
It's a good start, but you need to find somewhere fit "awesome" in the label.
You know, someone smart could modify call of cthulhu to modern day bankerism (or even steam punk monopolists) because the result is the same: once you understand the plot, you need to roll to save your sanity >; )
Is the ancient one that devours the world credit default swaps, universal default, rate recasting, or sovereign default by the united states? I sure know that when I contemplate the true nature of credit default swaps I lose a whole lot of sanity.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Optimist.
DC and Balto ALWAYS freak out with heavy snows.
Ys, Liz, but this is much more than a psychological problem. The area is not functioning physically.
HillBilly 2012!
Spud, Hoops was funnin' you.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
What do you think will happen if we get Broward's 35 hour work week?
A sovereign default is impossible.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
You are right. I marvel at the people who join the TEA(taxed enough already) party knowing fully well how big US's current debt ? What do these people want to do, go away en masse and start a new country somewhere, fully un-encumbered?! Pandering to craziness is the new new-populism, I suppose.
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
Are you kidding? For US-based analysts? They would probably also have to learn an obscure foreign language.
/snark off
Actually I agree with you about what should be done, but what is actually done is quite different. Many bankers won't even leave New York to go to Atlanta for a bond deal. That's a day trip, with a common language.
A sovereign default is impossible.
The thing that should not be. GET IT?
At this point, what is to stop people from getting an FHA loan from a bank in an area where that particular bank is not readily foreclosing on properties, make a few monthly payments then stop paying. In essence, get yourself in line for a bailout. Is it possible that people are buying houses right now with that very tactic in mind?
Tell them to bid low. Do not let the love show or
ed.
they are
lawyerliz wrote:
Dogs never make it to the minimum age of 35 years.
Sovereign (British coin) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
It usually doesn't. The snow will melt.
lawyerliz wrote:
yeah i know, just wanted to make sure that everyone knows my last name is not Walton and I'm not from Arkansas.
What do you think will happen if we get Broward's 35 hour work week?
How about massed compulsory calisthenics at the nearest airport? Wind up with a five minute hate.
sm_landlord wrote:
Total employment, stock prices, home prices. This doesn't seem to be happening on oil, but the year is still young.
It usually doesn't. The snow will melt.
I know that. It's the fragility that's striking.
Hiking tunes up your soul....
Bobcat
http://s459.photobucket.com/albums/qq319/cdavies64/nature/?action=view¤t=CSC_0956.jpg
http://s459.photobucket.com/albums/qq319/cdavies64/nature/?action=view¤t=CSC_0957.jpg
I though that the average hours worked was down to about 33?
SNAFU wrote:
this begs the question why not? why not move away? if the country is not willing to make responsible decisions and doesn't represent your values, then i don't disagree with someone wanting to do so. problem is, i have yet to identify a country that is any better, and i don't really want to leave, i just want it to get better.
TV won't be with us in it's form much longer if the incoming advertising dollars don't match the overpriced outlay, nobody's gonna bail them out...
spuderik wrote:
Nah, too expensive and chancy,...but companies and racketeers now,...
Sarah also spent $68K on buying her book to pump up the numbers
What do these people want to do, go away en masse and start a new country somewhere, fully un-encumbered?!
Perhaps they believe that most of our public debt is owed to foreigners (false) and think we should just stiff the bloody foreigners, serve them right for jabbering in their outlandish languages and eating with sticks.
i have yet to identify a country that is any better, and i don't really want to leave, i just want it to get better.
Try Belize. They're supposed to have great tacos.
Remember when they pitched cable tv as "ad free"?
Ah, the good old days...
Until most recently (now you need a passport to go to Canada or Mexico) something like 85% of Americans didn't have passports, meaning they've never been anywhere. A good percentage of these people know everything about the French and France, for some reason.
if only you had 68K, eh nova?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
LOL. Some people will be fine, I see them in the park every morning doing those Japanese-style slow martial arts moves or jogging incessantly up and down the parkways. But those are mostly people who were born and raised to the leisure class or at least upper-middle class comfort. I'm more worried about people who are used to working long hours and suddenly find themselves minimally employed, broke, and depressed.
Ah yes, told the son that & he thought I was kidding.
CR should do a internet radio show.
SNAFU wrote:
The frightening future scenario for us is that populism and anger leads to someone we definitely do not want rising to power. Weakened nations are much more susceptible to tyrannical rule. Now, we are far from it, and probably wouldn't have it occur at least for 10-15 years, but post WWI Germany had no idea what was coming in a few decades.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
some investor guy wrote:
Is there an icon for "that went over my head"?
That was oracular, but not clear, at least to me.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Belize does not want them, try Moon or discover a new continent.
JD<
I had some duck liver mousse two nights ago; but I wasn't in France.
It was fantastic.
Me too.
sdtfs wrote:
but if people are willing to sacrifice their credit score, they could get a free house (or relatively so) for at least 6 months, and in some cases closer to a year or two. i think this is actually happening, or at the very least a large number of renters are mulling the idea.
SNAFU wrote:
Well, from a credit and debt standpoint, forming a completely new city with no past liabilities could actually be a good idea. The problem is finding a reasonably dense area with homes and jobs that isn't yet incorporated.
Pandering to craziness is the new new-populism, I suppose.
Whatever works.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
i've been to belize, and aside from great weather, beaches, and snorkeling, there is not much to recommend about it. though who really needs more than beaches and snorkeling?
No GnomishOne. I don't think I could do that.
The brain trust @ Scientology figured out what book stores in NYC the NYT used to gauge book sales way back in the dinosaur age before computers.
Disciples of the dismal scientology would buy copies of Dianetics from a particular chain book-store that the NYT used, and return them to another location for a refund a few days later. This kept the book on the charts for a long time, until somebody figured out their game.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
And boy oh girl, did they sell a lot of books, by republishing a bunch of Elron's old dreck.
I dug my neighbor out yesterday. Today she gave us a can of pate and swiss chocolate. Them French people know what stock for snowstorms.
sm_landlord wrote:
2010 price levels for a huge number of things will be the same as 1996-1996. Thus, the housing, stock market, and many other assets will be at those levels. Oil isn't at those levels, partly because so much of its price is determined by demand outside of the US and FX levels.
For new home construction, it will be in the 1996-98 range.
When you adjust these numbers for inflation, homes will be less expensive than the late 1990s. Heavy intervention might delay that to 2011 or 2012, but we'll get there.
Dont worry about the credit score, its being pushed down the ladder in regards to qualifying....
you can purchase a house with no credit score...with 40% down....
Per last thread...they are opening the spigot to credit mooches right now.....You can write a crafty cry letter and get fica scores reset in 30 days if you know what your doing...most people dont....
helped a guy take his score from 588 to 704 fica this month....started writing creditors and getting removals in December....
Saints win 23-11.
Today, however, not likely.
Official says Fed might buy more mortgage-backed securities - washingtonpost.com
everyone who is shocked by this raise your hand (sic)
Debt won't hurt U.S. credit rating, Geithner says - USATODAY.com
shill wrote:
Forgot to include "for a while"
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
i have never heard of this. very interesting. i think one of the under-utilized tools is old fashioned letter writing. i got my hilton diamond membership renewed simply by asking in a personal letter, even though i didn't qualify.
some investor guy wrote:
OK, thanks, I get it now. Back in 2006 or 2007, I predicted that home prices would fall to 1997 prices, inflation-adjusted. Posted on the HBB someplace. Maybe I was too optimistic.
I haven't mentioned if for a while, but I think Miami-Dade prices will bottom at
55% off. Case Shiller has it at a bit more than 47% off peak.
That last 8% will be the mid-upper falling.
So I think it is relatively sale to buy at the low end, up to
the middle.
I think I'm going to open the honest guy credit consulting company....
if people understood that paying off multiple small credit cards with balances raised your scores by 20-100 points maybe they would pay them off...creditors don't want that to happnen though....
I have a program that tells me exactly how much higher your score would be depending on releases, balance pay offs etc....
I thought that was proprietary?
What good is a credit score if J6P and his fetching bettor half Jane Chardonnay, can't get loans anymore?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Just Nature@work.....
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
I will notify Diogenes
lawyerliz wrote:
Nothing cheers me up like a definitive bottom call!
Care to hazard a date or season?
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
how much do debt settlements affect your credit score? i know a few people who want to strategically default on their credit card debt. they can pay it, but they don't want to and feel like they don't have to because everyone else is getting a bailout. in fact, maybe that is the way to really get politicians/financials attention, if people start to strategically bailout en masse on all sorts of debt.
tg wrote:
Okay, but wait a few minutes; I think he's still in the bathtub.
spuderik wrote:
Ghostfaceinvestah called this about 6 months ago. Cool, more money to the elite to pump up paper assets.
Oh, a year and a half from now, say.
gabyjan wrote:
Not really OT....THAT is fragility......as was the link a few threads back to the Russian dam explosion....
Hoops, emailed the callout to you.
BTW, I fled Davis a year ago back across the causeway. I'm almost sorry though. Local Davis politics seems to getting real entertaining, makes the house of commons look dull >; )
We have an almost mountain lion-sized bobcat that's occasionally on the prowl around these parts. His left foreleg has diagonal white and gold stripes racing up towards his torso.
...we've named him Elvis
Oh, that reminds me, back to the flourishing ecosystems thread.
There are 2 really flourishing spots on earth.
care to hazard a guess where they are?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Did you leave a bowl of whiskey out for him?
nope..
just have to be a consultant, not a ripoff credit repair company....bring me your credit report, you can get it free once a year..I'll tell you what you need to attack first, what letters you need to write and give you a 1 page document informing you of your chances of getting auto, mortgage, credit card etc are....
It will be brutally honest....
Like you have no chance in hell of getting this or that....
I think people are ready for honesty....
anyone who goes into credit counseling is immediatly red-flagged and hosed on getting a loan.....such a game....
I never approved any loan with a credit counseling entry on report....
Home Gnome wrote: (
)
I can't tell if this is supposed to be cute or funny. I thought this was a union meeting, about finance. No membership dues or elections. (Please tip CR in digital currency, using PayPal). If it's sarcasm, and you think the half of the world that has no internet access would be better off avoiding unions, you're a lost cause.
Who said my plan was perfect? Mozilla doesn't have to perfect, just more useful and reliable than Internet Explorer. Or just a cheap alternative to compete in the free market, to keep the internet efficient. My conception for an open source currency is entirely optional, like PayPal. Render dollars unto the IRS. Use work or the open source currency to buy dollars to pay them. Send CR a check if you want, or a glod bar-- just more work for him. Work is time. Time is money. Stay home, gnome.
dont forget the bowl of uppers and downers...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Is that Chernobyl?
It's there already. My accepted offer on the house was just 20k over the 1993 sales price. This is a house with a new roof, new Hvac, all the structural in great shape.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Puppy Uppers Video by Saturday Night Live - MySpace Video
Really? could you send me an email with some info on this?
Our Elvis appears to be the young version, so ixany on the pharmaceuticals.
DMZ.
Don't know where Trona is, there's a place in Kali called that,
but the other one was Chernobyl.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
What good is a credit score if J6P and his fetching bettor half Jane Chardonnay, can't get loans anymore?
Jane Chardonnay sounds too uppity... Jane Boxwine perhaps? You know, that White Zin that comes in a giant box...
lawyerliz wrote:
if you believe the credit suisse chart, then it looks more like late 2012 is where we will find a bottom. however, there should be a big asterisk in that chart for all of Wells Fargo's Golden West loans. They will not reset/recast until 10 years after origination, so that will probably hit between 2013-2016. Wells Fargo is taking a gigantic risk and hoping that things are better by then, if not, Wells Fargo is going bye bye birdie.
I was in santa cruz mtn range....about 4 miles from housing tract.....little dogs and cats be careful.....we watched each other for 15 minutes...I moved within 25 ft and took one more step...he had his personal space gauge set at 24 ft
I mean Miami only.
lawyerliz wrote:
Detroit?
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Interesting, I didn't know credit counseling showed up on your report.
Tronanobyl
Elvis recently spotted at Wal-Mart!
People of Walmart: a collection of all the creatures that grace us with their presence at Walmart, America's favorite store.
Bottom line is, all you have to do is move all the people
out for 10-15 years. People are apparently far more damaging
to wildlife, even mammals than radioactivity.
Jane'z Infidel?
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
would you approve a loan for someone who had previously strategically defaulted? if that person had several hundred thousand in net worth?
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Jane wine cooler?
I try to tell people that but they don't listen. I know people who signed up for deals were the counseling service was skimming 15% off the monthly payment. I told them next time, tell me your liabilities and let me at them. Pay off the lowest one, then the next, then the next. I thought everyone knew that.
Those bobcats were beauties.
Jane Screw-Top
depends on ltv of purchase....
also bk's related to medical have never caused me an issue....
white zin (shudders) never
Deflationary Jane wrote:
Man what a racket! Almost as good as Pharmacy Benefit Managers.
Jane Night-Train?
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
that makes sense regarding medical. if someone had lots of money but could make a better percentage investing it they would prefer to have a mortgage. i suppose your decisions would work the same for car loans too?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
She lives in a shopping cart down the alley, just past the dumpsters.
Deflationary Jane wrote:
white zin (shudders) never
If you have to drink it, drink it fast and often
Hmm.. just realized Jane Boxwine sounds a bit too much like an African country... Jane Zin sounds too Asian... keep em coming JD!
Deflationary Jane wrote:
This is the biggest weakness of the commentariat: an inability to comprehend the current level of knowledge.
sdtfs wrote:
sdtfs wrote:
Have we selected ourselves out of the meme pool?
sdtfs wrote:
Nash equilibrium is only the best play when everyone knows how the game works.
Elvis, I guess these was the best. Actuals were 485 and 374.
ryanonthebeach wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 12:40 pm
480
380
Neil (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 4:44 pm Neil's picks
2008: 465K
2009: 385K
But there were many great picks. Best to all
tj & the bear wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 12:03 pm 490 / 350
dg wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 12:11 pm
2008: 425k
2009: 375k
Greg wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 12:16 pm Greg's picks:
2008: 465K
2009: 435K
Yal wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 12:32 pm
Yal's picks:
2008: 485K
2009: 435K
Anecdotal Economist (homepage) wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 12:48 pm
2008: 477 K
2009: 422 K
Drolwigs wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 12:53 pm
2008 - 480k
2009 - 410k
stevo (homepage) wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 1:03 pm stevo's picks:
2008: 484
2009: 401
Michael McKinlay wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 3:30 pm
2008: 477k
2009: 417k
YLSP (profile) wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 3:22 pm YLSP's picks:
2008: 450k
2009: 390k
Sequoia wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 3:35 pm
450k for 2008.
375k for 2009.
jm (profile) wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 3:38 pm jm's picks:
2008: 475K
2009: 340K
Clyde (profile) wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 3:53 pm Clyde's new home sales picks:
2008: 485k
2009: 430k
Mike in Long Island (profile) wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 4:41 pm CR,
Mike in Long Island Picks:
2008: 489k
2009: 435k
KCfromNC wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 6:11 pm Going with slightly unround numbers so my guess isn't a duplicate :
2008 - 479K
2009 - 424K
English Major Bimbo wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 7:05 pm
2008: 492
2009: 357
Requiem (profile) wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 9:35 pm Requiem's picks:
2008: 465
2009: 380
the guy pays the service a lump sum, takes out 15%, then pays off the creditor their portion. Apparently the creditors waved some finance charges and little principle to get this deal. But an individual could get the same deal if they just made the phone calls are were diligent about records.
Jane Bota.
Reading the book i've been quoting from, the great depression was the end of many different pursuits (i.e. vaudeville), things that were just hanging on by the skin of their teeth financially, and it didn't take long for them to get gone.
A virus with shoes.
I love the "Bank of Cthulhu" idea. Make the premise that Cthulhu is still sound asleep and his minions must destroy the world economy before we find him dozing in the Marianas trench or wherever. LOL.
Link?
I can't remember my picks.
plus it raised immediate red flag to underwriters...
it is a racket...and they sell and promote it as a
So a radioactive war is follow by bountiful nature. .
There could be a scifi novel about that.
Or we visit someplace where that happened.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Movies didn't help vaudeville much either.
Internet didn't help movies much either.
IFIFY
Pretty much. I keep thinking that if a dummy like me knows this, everyone must.
but then again I work with people who haven't reallocated their 401K distributions_ever and they are within 5 years of retirement. These are the same people who talk about American Idle like it's interesting so why am I surprised.
yogi wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 2:44 pm
2008: 498,498
2009: 498,498
History always repeats itself.
Contest: Predict New Home Sales | Hoocoodanode?
Best to all
Jane Manischewitz?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Why should that be striking in DC? Up where I grew up(North Jersey) everybody and their uncle had plows so the roads could be cleared, because it snowed often enough for it to be profitable to do it.
In DC it doesn't snow nearly enough for an ROI on a plow to be profitable.
Jane has always been a Wild Irish Rose or a Thunderbird type of gal...
I'm more than a little upset at Capital One, because they keep sending my college son offers for credit cards. So, I sent back the statement for a credit card account I have with Capital One with a zero balance, and never needed or used. I wrote on the statement stub: "Please cancel this account."
I got back a letter from Capital One saying you can't do that. You can't cancel a zero balance account by sending back the statement stub and writing on it. You have to fill out and sign a special form.
I'm thinking, the next shoe to drop is some kind of annual fee suddenly showing up on the account.
OK ... so to summarise the thread so far ...
The
doth protest too much ... Palin/Beck 2012 ... YouTube - Give the People what they Want by The Kinks ... teabaggers (heh heh) ... travel is fun ... Colts suck cause they're going to win ... peopleofwalmart are ugly ... and some finacial this and that ... did I miss anything?
dude needs a shredder.
rich wrote:
Ah, customer retention programs. Just try canceling a Verizon DSL service. There is no form, and they basically will not process your cancellation.
Wildly OT... maybe. Just got this link from a local Realter. (warning: pdf)
http://telestalk.com/files/2010/01/Dec-09-MM-SFR.pdf
Look! Prices are up in many LA areas! Not sure how this data is being manipulated, but I'm sure it is. Anyone?
Comment by Rob Dawg from thread 'Harney: "Cash-in" Refis'
Well played, Dawg!
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
The D&D geekfest, but other than that pretty much sums it up...
Europe Risks Another Global Depression « The Baseline Scenario
JBR wrote:
Individual prices are falling, but the average prices of the units that are selling appear to be rising because none of that stuff was selling at all in the reference period.
CBS News:
2 Dead, At Least 250 Injured at Conn. Power Plant Explosion
2 Dead, 250 Injured in Conn. Explosion - CBS News
bubblisimo, how long have you been on CR?
sm_landlord wrote:
I was out with some friends last night and one was talking about how he had let his cable lapse and stopped watching TV because he could download more video from the internet than he had time to watch. Not watching movies anymore wasn't discussed; it's old hat.
Also, I was at Barnes and Noble Friday after work and I could see the effect of the internet on books and music. They'd converted one of the scifi/fantasy shelves from bookshelf-style stock to display (just a few books, turned with the covers facing out, and with lots of empty space). Some of the main floor stock areas had been converted to boardgames (I'm not familiar enough with the entire floor to say what go shrunk). The music section had lost another rack area to movies (like that's going to help
) and what remained was shockingly poorly stocked - I'd say the racks were 1/3 full.
spuderik wrote:
CR? I thought this was hannidate?!?!?!?
Jonathan wrote:
Is that Copperfield-ish area? That sounds like just 249 or 290 in into Houston if that commute is involved...we are fixing to make a low offer on a house in the energy corridor that we have been scoping for some time...the prequal was a snap but it is also some corporate partnership gig between a zombie and the big oil company I work for...
Irony, the power plant that blew up this morning was a brand new plant that was financed by....the
It seems everything they touch blows up like our economy.
PIGS will be a
because the powers that be will do all they can to spin this as a non-event and then do everything possible to adjust accounting and fabric a synthetic patch-work quilt which will hide the bare-ass pig wearing copious amounts of multi-layered and multi-color psychedelic lipstick, like the little whore that she is!
BG: growth and innovation is where you find it:
The Reformed Broker
"To do that, the company has transformed Las Vegas sports betting into something it thinks is akin to derivatives trading. By using financial-markets technology, Cantor allows bettors to wager not only on who might win the game or by how much, but also on whether a team can complete its next pass or make a field goal.
OK, I get it. I like it and will definitely be checking it out. I bet the Mob won't like it so much, though.
So what will the New Wall Street-ified Vegas look like?
Cantor's first move when it took over at the M was to rip out the leather lounge chairs with cup holders and turn the place into something resembling a trading floor.
Bettors now sit in rows of cubicles lined with four screens each. Overhead, a wall of giant monitors flashes the action—though on an October evening, instead of market prices, it was a Monday Night Football match up between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins."
Sunday morning thread tune?
YouTube - Dave Matthews Band :Time Of The Season
Wonder what percentage of them were readers of the "Left Behind" by LaHaye & Jenkins, the ones that deal w/ Christian dispensationalist End Times Left Behind (series) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ---maybe they're hoping Palin will lead them to that Last Rapture.
That makes sense, I guess I knew that too, just couldn't put my finger on it. I think that explains why the really high end areas show declines in the charts... still nothing moving. What annoys me is that 99% of the people who get that mass mailed pdf won't question it. They'll just see prices "going up" and use that as a basis for their listing and/or offer prices.
Amazing how many 'Mericans require invisible means of support to justify their lives...
Doc Holiday wrote:
I'm afraid you're right, but a little piece of hope deep down inside wants this to spur
's momentum tomorrow am.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
exactly. that was the type of answer i anticipated.
Fair Economist wrote:
If we could get CNN, CNBC, and the Cooking channel on the Internet, we would shut off our cable yesterday. Mrs. LL still watches a few nighttime police procedurals, but those are available over the air, as they used to say.
For books and music, it's all over but the crying for bricks and mortar retail. I just can't be bothered to go through the process of driving and parking around here when I can just surf to Amazon, read reviews and sample the merchandise, then order what I want. Better selection, no surly clerks, no parking fees, no traffic, etc. The same goes for food shopping - other than a monthly trip to Costco for bulk staples, we get everything delivered... at no charge. The only downside is the occasional bungled substitution, like the wrong kind of bread.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
It is going to be a small margin victory for Yanukovich (a Pro-Russian candidate) or a tie, once the western parts finish reporting
In either case there will be numerous accusation of voters fraud, falsification of results.
The best case is the government paralysis for a few weeks, the worst case is confrontation between Ukrainian West and East.
Here, hear
lawyerliz wrote:
not radiation but Earth Abides:
Earth Abides - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Thanks Liz, that would be my thought too. Maybe put in a low-ball at $140k. Nothing hardly has sold recently in that neighborhood.
And obviously the realtorlizards have an interest in keeping comps and commi$$ions as high as possible.
Man, I detest those perky realtor photos. And descriptions of yards as paradise. And NEW GRANITE.
/rant
I really liked Earth Abides a lot.
JD<
Well you'd need support too, if you believed that the Earth was 4000 years old and fossils were put here by the devil to test your faith.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
This PIGS event wasn't in the model and sill is off the radar, thus dealing with containing this is all about new PR and new ways to bullshit people about the on-going systemic failure of capitalism ... but it's ok, they have it under control!
If I was a Unabanker i'd sure want to have a nice little PIGSI take the blame for the financial melt-down...
Earth Abides is one book everyone should read at least once. Or three, four, or five times, in my case.
HomeGnome wrote:
See: Robert Cialdini on DVD | The Power of Persuasion
energyecon wrote:
Earth trying to imitate the Dude?
I saw Rosenberg on bubblevision Friday after the close. He was being ridiculed by 3 bulls, reminiscent of the Schiff attack by housing bulls in '08. Pretty funny. Anyhow...
[Now, since this is a technically-driven market, we are bound to get a 50% reversal of the bear market rally, which would take us to 912 on the S&P 500 — so keep your seatbelts on. We had been warning for a while that too much complacency had set in, and what happens when the market shoots up 70% without taking any serious break along the way? Investors tend to believe that we are into some sustainable new parabolic bull run.”]
I still love going to bookstores, getting a coffee, and browsing through the books. I loved browsing the music too until this week - there is too little that appeals to me left now. I admit I don't buy much anymore though. I went in looking for a book on zero-growth economics. Couldn't find one - the shelves were full of Crash of 2008 analyses, which were of course behind what I can get here. I don't have much time to read anyway.
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said the U.S. is in no danger of losing its Aaa debt rating even though the Obama administration has predicted a $1.6 trillion budget deficit in 2010.
“Absolutely not,” Geithner said, when asked in an ABC News interview broadcast today whether a downgrade is a concern. “That will never happen to this country.”
Why do I have a sinking feeling that this comment will be re-shown in years in the future just like Paulson's comment about Fannie and Freddie's stability and Bernanke's "There's no housing bubble comment."
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Hello America how are you?
Just wanted to share our last 2 major purchases for our home, a Fridgidaire refrigerator and Sony 52 inch HD TV.
What's interesting about them is they were both made here in North America...
...Mexico
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
Nope! Now can you please summarize Bush's 8 years and O's first year please?
sm_landlord, apologies for last night, you wrote an extended answer to my query regarding the Chinese debt situation last night, and the moment I finished reading your reply I was pulled away from the computer for the night. Sorry for leaving you hanging, but I really did appreciate your response, and although I'm not too familiar with the Chinese situation your response did mesh with the vague opinion that I had formed.
Merci beaucoup.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Including the non-profit ones?
YouTube - Bill Hicks- What your reading for?
Start at :40.
bearly wrote:
I encourage you to check out some of the 1929-1932 stock charts, and also the 1989-1992 stock charts in Japan. We have the final leg down coming, and it started at 1150. If we follow the Nikkei path we'll be around 560 in the S&P in about a year. If we follow the Great Depression path we'll be at 210 in the S&P in about two years. My guess is we fall somewhere in between. Japan couldn't hold their markets afloat, and neither will we be able to do so.
Not even an honorable mention under my old moniker:
AllenM aka Joliet Jake (profile) wrote on Tue, 8/26/2008 - 1:37 pm
* edit
* reply
2008 474k
2009 362k
The really ridiculous part is they are sitting on 400k in inventory already.
Why are they still building?
Someday this war's gonna end...
My total miss was low by 23 thousand. Good enough for government work.
Someday this war's gonna end...
iceman wrote:
That was absolutely the first thing I thought when I read that. I wonder if it will be one of the most recognizable quotes from this period in history? Right along the lines of:
iceman wrote:
Re: Geithner said: ... Why gads, we have Warren Buffet and all sorts of fuckers like him that own rating agencies -- that are on our F'ing side, what the fuck do you thinks gonna happen, yah think were gonna give ourselves a black eye ... punk, huh, do yah, huh, huh?
noob goldberg wrote:
You're welcome, I'm glad you saw the response. I'm certainly no China expert, but some things seem obvious to me.
sm_landlord wrote:
The problem is what will happen if we don't? BTW, I think he advocates a 32 hr week, I thought.
I'm advocating for 168 hour weeks.
Don't we have a 33 hr work week now by proxy?
Citizen AllenM wrote:
Because they can and because they got nothing better to do.
Yanukovich wins Ukraine election: exit polls - Yahoo! News
Comrade Kristina wrote:
That is average. They are talking maximum.
YouTube - Weird Al Yankovic-Eat It
my week is now paid for 38.4 but in reality 45 or so.
An interesting link from the local fishwrap
Sacramento Realtors worry about school-closure effects - Sacramento Business, Housing Market News | Sacramento Bee
From the headline, I thought the article would be about declining school funding to the "good schools" as in more students per classroom. But apparently it's about schools that are closed.
I don't know if I can think of a single professional career besides possibly accounting that doesn't have long phases of 55+ hr weeks, or any retailer, software dev, etc, that doesn't have them. These phases are often in the pre-journeyman phases of a career or business, but they are somewhat inevitable.
RE wrote:
I think you're right, he probably did call for 32.
As I was saying to Pavel, my concern is what with people reverting to even more consumption of mindless entertainment, leading to an Idiocracy-like outcome. Entertainment is not going to get any better, and the BS that passes for discussion on MSNBC and Fox is absolutely appalling.
What will happen if we don't? Other than falling wages, I'm not really sure. What do you think will happen?
Speaking of work, time to get back ..
YouTube - Beatles - Get Back (Rooftop)
Raj, that comment was from 2008- it is kinda funny in the context of the federal giveaways to promote selling houses.
Nothing like a collapsed bubble. So how long until we get cash for clunker stock giveaways?
I can hardly wait for the retirement giveaways coming to encourage investment.
Maybe they will do financing giveaways so you too can enjoy your very own CRE motel investment.
Nothing like properties really cheap.
Someday this war's gonna end...
pavel.chichikov wrote:
That looks like a setback to me. What do you think?
sm_landlord wrote:
Indeed, it was helpful analysis for me. I'll repost it for the simple reason that I have little else to contribute today; hopefully it won't get lost in noise like it did last night.
sm_landlord wrote:
It was in response to this story:
MrM wrote:
Only the Dude is far easier going... relax and have a beverage!
The "problem" isn't a 32 hour work week but THE DEBT OWED by the workers that requires 40 hours of work to service.
Coupled with a devaluing currency; I don't see the 32 hour work week occurring.
(sorry 'bout the caps gun; luckily it was set to a 3 round burst)
SNAFU wrote:
W
O
pavel.chichikov wrote:
As I said upthread, it is going to be a close call, and it is going to be messy, with accusations of fraud and falsification flying
noob goldberg wrote:
linky pls?
edit: thanks I see the ref in a following post
energyecon wrote:
I summarized the thread for you
EDIT: For myself, the following quote in that bloomie story was the most disturbing:
"Liu Mingkang, chairman of the CBRC, said Jan. 4 that loans were channeled into stock and property speculation last year, which China has been taking measures to stop."
Deflationary Jane wrote:
bet your productivity metrics look :hawt:
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
W
O
Even less verbiage than I could have come up with! Bravo Zulu.
As I said upthread, it is going to be a close call, and it is going to be messy, with accusations of fraud and falsification flying
Yanukovich will almost certainly be legally declared the winner and will be sworn in. This is a great coup for Putin et. al.
MrM, is your family originally from western Ukraine - Lviv perhaps? If so, I can understand your feelings.
Hoops, if you are still around
UC Davis aims to turn more of its tech into business - Sacramento News - Local and Breaking Sacramento News | Sacramento Bee
Our office of research laid off most of the tech transfer unit a few years ago to cut costs. Now they realize how much they screwed themselves and are staffing back up.
GREENWICH, Conn. — After one of the leanest years in memory, life in this upper-crust enclave is slowly returning to normal. The Greenwich version of normal, anyway.
Caterers' cell phones are ringing again. Luxury car dealers are sending the Porsches out for test drives. An architect is booking multimillion-dollar jobs for his "masters of the universe" clients, titans of Wall Street who've made this leafy Connecticut suburb of New York one of the wealthiest towns in the country.
Call the caterer! Bank bonuses a relief in Greenwich, Conn. | McClatchy
Let them eat catered meals...
Let them eat catered meals...
I'm so happy for them. Aren't you? Perhaps they'll be generous and send photos of their banquets to the unemployment office.
If I was a toady toff like all of them are, i'd be keeping a low profile...
pavel.chichikov wrote:
No, not from Ukraine
The problem for Ukraine is that there is a huge cultural and economic divide between its East (mostly Russian speaking and many still identifying with Russia, the economy largely focused on exports to Russia) and West (mostly Ukrainian speaking and looking further West, not strongly economically).
Any Ukrainian election without a clear victor is going to result in standoffs.
Deflationary Jane wrote:
Clever, very clever. I guess that's why they get to work for a university because of how smart they are.
THE SONG OF DIVES
Dives ate and Lazarus starved
But Dives scraped his platter clean
The dogs that licked the beggar’s wounds
Belonged to Dives and grew lean
The beggar’s heart was small and red
The blood they lapped was thin and sweet—
When Dives’ dogs ate Lazarus
It cost much less than butcher’s meat
But when they broke the beggar’s bones
And licked the marrow from the cracks
The rich man cried and rubbed his hands:
I wish I had poor Lazarus back
For then I’d send my table scraps
To make atonement for my lapse
Pavel
March 3, 1994
HomeGnome wrote:
Out of curiousity, I wonder what it's like to grow up in that kind of environment? How do the kids turn out? They would have every opportunity, surrounded by other kids also receiving every advantage imaginable. Is there a correlation?
I think a research study examining such a unique environment could produce some fascinating insight into the American dream.
MrM wrote:
The good news is that the economic crisis is eliminating the divide. Now both sides are poor, hungry and desperate.
The bad news: they want to join the European Union.
That was from "Lion Sun, Poems by Pavel Chichikov"
Pavel,
Very nice. I have always liked that story.
The problem for Ukraine, besides the divide you mention, is that Russia wants it back.
noob goldberg wrote:
These kids would be a pretty extreme case. Even when their parents fail epically, they get $ million dollar bonuses.
I won't be watching the super bowl. My dish is buried in a snow drift. Oh well.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Did you invent the name "Dives"? It's a great poem, but I've never heard that reference before.
Oh, and a request:
Could you please repost "Apple Pie and Coffee"? I love that poem.
Thank you, Nova.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
No consequences for epic failure? Sounds like a breeding ground for politicians...
Dives from dives, the Latin word for rich man
Rajesh wrote:
Any divide is relative., and the crisis is affecting different parts of Ukraine differently.
Think of its as Greece and Germany voting in the same election, except that the number of votes is about the same
The East would rather join Russia, not the EU
Off to gym ....
Lazarus and Dives - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
lol actually I've been tagged for a promotion although it's all hush hush. I came from tech where you busted hump to met deadlines and milestones. I'm a bit of a fish out of water and have been told to quit working so hard by some of my peers.
I'd say probably 70% of the campus is just warming a seat until HR admin hits their magic retirement number. But there are some reorgs coming to academic departments that will probably cause a few more old timers to flee even if they don't get the dream package they wanted.
nova wrote:
The Colts will win, The Who will play, but the sound will be bad ... some band from Winnipeg will hit pay dirt doing a Bud commercial.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
In the same sense as the US wants Mexico to be a close ally.
Putin does not really want to govern Ukraine directly, but he definitely wants to see a friendly government. Again, just like the US and Mexico.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Russia wants a number of things, none of which it can afford. Ask the Belarus president.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
It's true, I agree. But they are also an extreme example of the American Dream, where they have acquired everything their hearts desired. Could the American dream be destroyed if such a study showed that such an environment appeared to be detrimental to successfully raising offspring? I don't know. Just random curiousity.
APPLE PIE AND COFFEE
If the world were looking up
And saw destruction in descent,
Who would put down his coffee cup
To wonder at the firmament?
If the sunrise split the sky,
Skinned the planets from their peels,
Who would reject his apple pie
And wonder if the stars were real?
The peace of Earth we call the world
We nominate reality,
But few have known the winds that whirl
Outside the fence of certainty
If the gates were left ajar
And that which is outside came in,
The poisoned wind of Lucifer
Would make the light of day seem dim
Monsters swaying side to side
Thrust their fingers through the gaps;
Might they find a way inside?
If helped by those within, perhaps
Pavel
November 24, 2009
What's more important to Mr Market - A failure of Greece & Spain or a good nielson rating for the suprbowl ?
Thanks for your encouragement, Noob.
Saints 38 Colts 35 OT
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Thank you, pavel and nova, I was not aware of that. Obviously I need to expand my bookshelf
Bubblisimo,
Thanks. I will take a nap then.
sm_landlord wrote:
Sorry, I have to leave now but will answer later in the day.
Rajesh wrote:
Oh, the Belarussian president will never dare to really anger Putin.
There is an annual ritual of renegotiating the oil+gas deals, and every year Russian gets better terms.
Putin does not really want to govern Ukraine directly, but he definitely wants to see a friendly government. Again, just like the US and Mexico.
Yes, for now, but Mexico, as important as it is, is not as important to the US as Ukraine is to Russia.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
You're welcome. Thank you for sharing. I don't know why that poem resonates with me, but it does. Thanks for reposting
hey guys, Olympics are gearing up, noticeably more people around town, I am grateful for the American people sending a cute NBC producer
If you hear about Vancouver's downtown eastside, skid row, the worst 10 square blocks in North America, ... in the press coverage -- and it's true btw, total zombieland -- here is a film student's documentary on it filmed last December, Streets of Plenty
his approach fluctuates, but watch the whole thing before you form an opinion
We have a new public transit line even Rob Dawg would approve of, YouTube - ZIP LINE VANCOUVER 2010.MP4
They have these spotlights over English bay, connected to the internet, and you can tell them what pattern to make, I think it's fun, Vectorial Elevation - Rafael Lozano-Hemmer
YouTube - Accidente Caracoles Chile 15/01/2010 here's a funny video of a truck being righted after rolling over
The only economic things I have to add are foreign remittances and money laundering.
Remittances were a key source of foreign exchange money for many countries, and now in some cases people from those countries are doing reverse remittances so the under/unemployed migrant workers can pay their expenses. Central banks of these countries really don't have a good idea what the hell is happening from month to month. They just know the aggregate data reported by their banks on a delay. I think that such countries are much more sensitive to a food price spike than they were in 2007.
Money laundering came up because I very briefly talked to someone whose family used to produce cut flowers. It's not a huge surprise that they couldn't stay in the business between foreign competition to increases in the price of natural gas to heat the greenhouses. The thing I walked away with was the allegation some exporters were money laundering operations. Allegedly a lot of these cut flower export operations are funded by narco money, happy to earn even moderately negative returns. For one, it launders the money through employees while making international payments easy. Two, it provides a legitimate front and is useful politically to be a major legitimate employer.
Flowers need warmth + water and their production is labour intensive. The foreign competition from northern South America has natural heat, and cheap labour. More recent competition from Africa does not have the water, but they're doing it. 3/4 of a cut flower's weight is water, and since they're time sensitive they are usually flown to market and then are distributed in refrigerated trucks. So transportation costs play a big role too.
Cut flowers is an interesting business. Insanely competitive. Perhaps the most advanced logistics and globalized supply chain out there. The Dutch have the top flower market (which makes sense, they are centrally located for distribution to major markets), but I don't see how they can profitably produce flowers outdoors... especially with the more volatile seasons lately.
Here is the story:
Luke 16:19-31 - Passage Lookup - New American Standard Bible - BibleGateway.com
pavel.chichikov wrote:
If the Mexican government started publicly discussing a possibility of a military alliance with Venezuela, then Mexico would quickly become very important to the US.
I am off, talk to you later!
I don't know why that poem resonates with me, but it does.
I have an intuition about the resonance of that poem, but I won't express it here.