Jobs and the Unemployment Rate

Brother, Can You Spare Some F.R.A.U.D -- New Original Federal Reserve Song

http://dailybail.com/home/brother-can-you-spare-some-fraud-new-federal-reserve-song.html

This is really good...makes me so happy on a snowy Saturday morning...

Hoops, they told us we were moving into a service economy decades ago. We just failed to understand that the 'service' economy meant being servants to a super-wealthy class of feudal lords and a hereditary de facto aristocracy.

People are clearing their cars of snow here in NW DC, but since the streets haven't been plowed most of those vehicles will go no where until that happens.

Let's keep government out of snow plowing [irony, satire].

Brings whole new meaning to the government term; outlying. Should be two words.

"It is probably reasonable to expect that the employment-population ratio has stopped falling."

But the politically-motivated, utterly opaque, seasonally adjusted and endlessly revised U3 really wouldn't help us be sure of that, would it?

Maybe this census is the last gasp of statistics with a passing connection to reality before Potemkin really takes over the BLS.

We just failed to understand that the 'service' economy meant being servants to a super-wealthy class of feudal lords and a hereditary de facto aristocracy.

In Vienna they say servus.

Importing some LIBERAL PRIDE from the previous thread.

A true liberal is concerned with the state of those immediately below him in the economic hierarchy, because he knows that one day he or his children or his neighbors or brothers will need those rungs to be solid enough to support him on the climb back up to prosperity.

bearly writes:
Who was the last poor person you worked for ? In my case I can't remember ever working for one, but maybe that's just me. And I can't think of a single poor shiftless person that helped me or my family. Again, maybe that's a unique experience that I've had.

You've found the cause of our economic distress. We have run out of wealthy people to employ us as servants.

I'm sure some tax cuts will help by creating more wealth among the wealthy people, and social services cuts will make us more desperate, pliable, and thus attractive as servants. Hopefully enough of the two will allow us to finally be competitive with third world peasants. I see a road to recovery ahead, by gum.

Remember, wealthy ones, your property rights are not intrinsic to your possessions. Only by society's sufferance in creating and respecting those rights do you enjoy ownership of wealth, property, holdings, and whatever other instruments of monopoly by which you collect rent from the rest of us. Once this arrangement shifts from a beneficial and necessary economic tool to harmful parasitism, once the holders of wealth fall prey to the illusion of lordhood and forget that their position is dependent on the sufferance and observances of others, society will cease to recognize your claims, and all property rights will extinguish as if they never were. Falsely believe that you are not one of and among us, that your property rights and wealth somehow separates and insulates you from needing to concern yourself with the health of the society you inhabit, and whatever legitimate claim you think you have to your holdings, titles, possessions, and lands will evaporate like a mirage, as if it had never existed.

Great charts and writing, but this also is related to the implications of double-dip realities:

"Growth would have to equal 5 percent for all of 2010 just to lower the average jobless rate for the year by 1 percentage point."
**
Thus, when you say, "Therefore, to see consistent declines in the unemployment rate, we would probably have to see **sustained payroll growth of over 150 thousand per month
. "

Also: The establishment survey showed a loss of 20,000 payroll jobs in January.....

"Another way of looking at it: A net total of about 3 million jobs would have to be created this year to lower the average unemployment rate by 1 percentage point for 2010, economists estimate. "

"When the economy was recovering from the 2001 recession, it took two years to reduce the unemployment rate by nearly a full percentage point: It fell from 6 percent in 2003 to 5.1 percent in 2005. GDP growth averaged just over 3 percent."

WTF does this all mean?

Pigged

Corporate earnings rose by 29% in the July-September quarter of 1983, compared with the same period in 1982. Some of the most dramatic improvements came in industries hardest hit by the recession, such as paper and forest products, rubber, airlines, and the auto industry.

Will our economy turn on a dime with another housing bubble? I guess if Obama uses TARP lll for Cash For Clunker Homes (CFCH) then, that would help create (synthetic) jobs, as we tear down the old homes and build new ones and then we all get free Wheres MY pony? But who will pay for the houses once all those jobs are gone??

Mammoths are trumpeting on Georgia Avenue.

pavel.chichikov wrote:
Servus - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Love -- love it, pavel. We are entering into a new era, the Servus Economy.

so the data tightens up over time due to revisions, yes?

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Mammoths are trumpeting on Georgia Avenue.

What a image! Lets go back to the Paleolithic.

Pronounced approx: Sair' voos.

A bit askew,but the Prussians say that a Bavarian is someone who is halfway between an Austrian and a man.

Thanks for that CR; as I noted yesterday that the column of Mr Norris in the NYT was definitely more upbeat than the blog comments of PK as goes UE. The issue is still confused in my mind. But that may just be me.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

the Prussians say that a Bavarian is someone who is halfway between an Austrian and a man

My friends in Munich would crash a beer stein over you head if they heard that!

Still rocking out to Rush.

YouTube - Rush - The Temples of Syrinx (lyrics)

\m/ We are the priests of the temples of Syrinx! \m/

Now for some progressive rock songs about hobbits fighting necromancers. Or trees.

Lets go back to the Paleolithic.

It's too late for most of us. Anyway, survivors can live off the relict surplus they can find for many decades.

Please keep in mind that the people of the Paleolithic lived in a pristine, unspoiled world. Life was hard, but it wasn't filled with heavy metals and noxious chemicals.

Note that the trend line is a 2nd order polynomial.

I'd just once like to hear the word polynomial in th mainstream media.

Excellent analysis. Stats I - IV were some of my favorite classes (to a 95% confidence interval).

My friends in Munich would crash a beer stein over you head if they heard that!

And I'd deserve it, wouldn't I?

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Life was hard, but it wasn't filled with heavy metals and noxious chemicals.

But we had all that mega fauna to kill and munch on, plus continents to plunder.
And think of the Fly Fishing!

Please keep in mind that the people of the Paleolithic lived in a pristine, unspoiled world.

The sheer quantity of game would boggle the minds of most modern humans. Rivers teeming with trout, more fish than water in some places, fearless animals relatively naive to the curious rarity that was the human form

But we had all that mega fauna to kill and munch on, plus continents to plunder.
And think of the Fly Fishing!

I've read that physical anthropologists have found that remains of Paleolithic people show that they were healthy and well-nourished. Supposedly it's a pretty good life if game and foraged foods are plentiful, and you know what you're doing. A supportive culture is part of that.

If we get a series of enormous jobs programs we'll get to full employment in no time. Just imagine all the jobs created or saved!

Just about everyone's healthy before 30, Pavel.

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

Now for some progressive rock songs about hobbits fighting necromancers. Or trees.

YouTube - "Frodo, Don't Wear The Ring" - 'Flight of The Conchords' - Lord of The Rings Song

The issue is still confused in my mind. But that may just be me.

I found these very helpful towards understanding the confusing jumble of numbers:

from Dirk van Djik

Initial Jobless Claims Up Again

Notes on Unemployment Duration 

Just about everyone's healthy before 30, Pavel.

Hoops, IIRC the comparison was to people who were mainly agriculturalists.

Only by society's sufferance in creating and respecting those rights do you enjoy ownership of wealth, property, holdings, and whatever other instruments of monopoly by which you collect rent from the rest of us.

Wrong. Property rights work as long as 51+% of the population believes they (or their children) too have the chance to join the upper 1%, and be beneficiaries eventually too. Why do you think Joe the Plumber (annual income: 40K) was defending tax cuts for millionaires? Because Joe believed deep down he too would be a millionaire one day too, and wants low taxes for when he gets his pony.

When 51+% come to accept the reality they and their children will likely live and die as penniless serfs, real change will come.

How could there be fewer payroll jobs, but the unemployment rate declined? This is because the data comes from two separate surveys.

I would also add that the seasonal adjustment, which is especially large in January, is calculated separately for each of the surveys. When both readings are close to neutral, this seasonal adjustment can push them in opposite directions.

On the previous thread, tg posted a video clip called Gold -- China's End Game?

The narrator postulated a theory as to why the Chinese govt. is encouraging citizens to buy up physical gold. He asked for alternate reasons as convincing as his own.

My alternate reason focuses on India. There may be as much physical gold in the hands of ordinary Indian people as there is in all other private (non-govt.) hands in the rest of the world. It's one of the great mysteries how much, because it's widely dispersed, very private and has been accumulating in families over centuries.

No govt. has to urge Indians to save in gold. They do it automatically. No govt. could compel Indians to turn in their private gold for govt. gold coins, as the author says China might do.

Indians have the ability to put enormous pressure on stocks of real physical gold, as opposed to gold futures and derivatives. If Chinese citizens also began to accumulate physical, there simply isn't enough to go round. Govt. and IMF stocks couldn't be manipulated fast enough, and a short squeeze would quickly develop. You would see it in silver, and it would be sharper in silver, than in gold.

My alternate theory is that the Chinese want to promote this squeeze while protecting the financial security and purchasing power of their citizens. It's PCE Chinese style. In other words, the Chinese don't have to mint and distribute gold coins to accomplish what the author argues. Not with the Indians.

bearly wrote:

If we get a series of enormous jobs programs

A big part of our crisis is the intellectual bankruptcy of the right, which never acknowledged that ZIRP (or something close to it) under greenie in '02 was exactly that.

Was reading this blog a couple days back, I thought there was going to be a big announcement about something like 840,000 more lost souls being added to the unemployed ranks? Did I miss, or miss-read, something?

Badger boy, the narrative you described regarding the poor having a chance to be rich by supporting the existing rich is propaganda, and propaganda is for the purpose of influencing belief, belief which, I argue, is the true root of our property system. So I don't think we're in disagreement.

Great, great analysis, CR. Thank you. I think you deserve a raise.

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

The sheer quantity of game would boggle the minds of most modern humans. Rivers teeming with trout, more fish than water in some places, fearless animals relatively naive to the curious rarity that was the human form

The SF Bay was like that 150 years ago; I've read the accounts. Fish everywhere, the sky full of birds. No problem to go out and bag a dozen ducks before breakfast, any day you named. During the Gold Rush, San Francisco hotels employed hunters to keep meat on the table.

Edit -- I forgot the elk. Herds of elk all over the damned place. And grizzly bears.

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

Now for some progressive rock songs about hobbits fighting necromancers. Or trees.

It can't all be gems---

YouTube - UNCUT - FULL - Ballad of Bilbo Baggins - Leonard Nimoy

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

The sheer quantity of game would boggle the minds of most modern humans. Rivers teeming with trout, more fish than water in some places, fearless animals relatively naive to the curious rarity that was the human form

If you read John Smith's diaries of his exploration of the Chesapeake Bay in the 1600's, it's pretty much the same description. Now, not so much. Sick

piqued wrote:

840,000

Unemployment numbers down but not everyone agrees |
WSBT - News, Weather, Sports
South Bend
| Local News
Dooooooooooooooom!!!

Some believe the numbers are down because fewer people are getting unemployment benefits and not because they have gotten a job -- because their unemployment benefits have run out and they are not longer included when the government calculates the numbers.
Agbetsiafa says there is some merit to that argument.
"Discouraged workers, the group has grown from 840,000 to 1.1 million.
that improves statistics in itself. However there are some glimmers of hope.

It is probably reasonable to expect that the employment-population ratio has stopped falling.

I wonder what percent of people who lost their jobs had to accept getting into much lower paying jobs as they could not find anything similar to jobs they used to have (people can hold out only for so long).

Great for short-term profits of corporations (more skilled labor cheaper), yet a bit problem for the economy as a whole longer term

I'm with the folks up North on this:

HoweStreet.com - The Source for Market Opinions

In the continuing theater of BLS absurdities, the unemployment rate fell to 9.7% in spite of a 25th consecutive month of job losses. Some stopped counting at 22 months in November. However, I find November questionable.

This month professional services contributed 44,00 jobs to the plus side, but 52,000 of them were part-time jobs. Amazingly a table below shows the number of part-time workers decreased by 849,000 from last month. Go figure.

Doc Holiday wrote:

Some believe the numbers are down because fewer people are getting unemployment benefits and not because they have gotten a job -- because their unemployment benefits have run out and they are not longer included when the government calculates the numbers.

I personally know a few people who have been out of work since late 2008. And, as a self-employed individual (whose income easily halved in 2009) I don't show up one way or the other, but have certainly felt the effects of the recession.

I really do think that employment is ready to take another leg down, from small business closures. So many small businesses are close to the edge, doing the which-bills-will-I-pay-this-month game. One good shock would send them over the edge -- or 6-12 more months of things-as-they-are.

Yah...

" the unemployment rate will be over 10% all the way through 2015 and never dip below 8% all the way out through the end of 2020," Mish says.:

Doc Holiday wrote:

Go figure.

Umm... that was the whole point of CR's post this thread is linked to - the noisy relationship between NFP numbers and U3

Federal Fairness for California.

Sunday Take: Golden State loses its luster - washingtonpost.com

Schwarzenegger is looking to Washington for help. In his State of the State address a month ago, the governor said California gets back just 78 cents for every dollar it sends to Washington. When President Bill Clinton was in office, Schwarzenegger said, California got 94 cents on every dollar sent. "We are not looking for a federal bailout, just federal fairness," he said.

MrM wrote:

Great for short-term profits of corporations (more skilled labor cheaper)

This happens in every single recession. Demand declines, higher paids get cut, demand returns and lower paid fill the payrolls. That applies except for the executives. They never get fired, just retire. Only this time demand might never return to pre-bubble levels, for anything.

Spunkmeyer wrote:

If you read John Smith's diaries of his exploration of the Chesapeake Bay in the 1600's, it's pretty much the same description.

I don't doubt that fish and game were plentiful, but people did have problems,...Ishi, last(?) of the California Yahi, didn't describe an idyllic life.

I wonder why Mish thinks Joe Boomer's 65th birthday in 2020 will inaugurate such a jubilee of job-creation? Rose Colored Glasses

Spunkmeyer wrote:
If you read John Smith's diaries of his exploration of the Chesapeake Bay in the 1600's, it's pretty much the same description. Now, not so much.

"Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed and the only way you can survive is to spread to another area."
- Agent Smith to Neo, "The Matrix"

bearly wrote:

That applies except for the executives.

This is applied by the executives, hence the outcome

Wonderful Post - IMO the headline number is a farce. It has become a political football that is now manipulated to gain political advantage. As a trader, my only use for the number is knowing what time the release will hit, so I can avoid the wild volatility that ensues as everyone tries to guess what it means. Usually, within 15min - everyone scratches their head and says..."Yeah, but my neighbor's still out of work - and even though the rate has ticked down from 10 to 9.7%, nothing changes" and things revert.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium

Yep, those lemmings have an instinctive sense of balance.

Yep farmers were malnourished in comparison.

rb wrote:

California gets back just 78 cents for every dollar it sends to Washington

HA! DC is a skimming operation - period. How could you expect to get 94% back and keep all the federal programs including defense, FBI, anti-terror... going, along with all the hopeless pork-ridden bills.

I think 78 cents is too high given the current black hole that exist in DC. Maybe he would get more back if the USG shrunk.

sdtfs wrote:
Yep, those lemmings have an instinctive sense of balance.
Only collectively Smile

lawyerliz wrote:
Non serviam.
Likewise. This isn't heaven, either, needless to say.

bearly wrote:

rb wrote:
California gets back just 78 cents for every dollar it sends to Washington
HA! DC is a skimming operation - period.

2 senators per each state, baby

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

YouTube - One Toke Over The Line - Lawrence Welk - WTF! (1971)

I'm a big fan of cross-cultural weirdness, but that was too much. I doubt that they understood what they were singing.

From : howestreet

"The official unemployment rate is 9.7%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

It reflects how unemployment feels to the average Joe on the street. U-6 is 16.5%. Both U-6 and U-3 (the so called "official" unemployment number) are poised to rise further although most likely at a slower pace than earlier this year."

Also see: The Good News About Jobs - Economic Beat - G. Epstein - Barrons.com

"The brightest spot in the BLS report was the decline in the unemployment rate by a statistically significant three-tenths of a percentage point, to 9.7%. The decline was confirmed by a disproportionate drop in the broadest measure of unemployment tracked by** BLS, U-6, which fell in January to 16.5% from 17.3%** the month before.

The decline in U-6 was mainly driven by a fall in the number of involuntary part-timers. People working part-time who would prefer full-time jobs fell from 9.2 million to 8.3 million in January, the lowest number in a year.

Real consumer spending, that is, adjusted for inflation, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in December after a 0.4% gain in November. It was the lowest since September's 0.7% decline. For the fourth quarter, real spending increased at a 2% annual rate.

Spending is starting the year on a soft note," wrote Julia Coronado, an economist for BNP Paribas.
Real spending is down 0.5% compared with December 2007, when the recession began

Not many people know what was really in the bubble machine.

bearly wrote:

HA! DC is a skimming operation - period.

Some of those lightly-populated Western states with more senators than Jews definitely get more than their share back. It's the politics, baybee.

Bob Dobbs wrote:

I doubt that they understood what they were singing.

Yeah, Dick Dale said in a later interview that the Lawrence Welk people thought it was a gospel song.

MPConvert wrote:

IMO the headline number is a farce.

Norris, NYT, writes:

"A GLOBAL recovery in manufacturing appears to be accelerating. Most manufacturers around the world are reporting an increase in output and new orders, both of which plunged in late 2008 and early 2009 as a credit crisis spurred fears of a new Depression.

The sharpness of the rebound, reflected in the indexes created by the Institute for Supply Management in the United States, and recreated in many other countries by Markit, could indicate that the American economy is not in line for another slow recovery, as happened after the two most recent downturns, in the early 1990s and the early 2000s.

That strength was also reflected in the gross national product estimate for the final quarter of 2009, with an annual rate of growth o f 5.7 percent, the fastest for any quarter in more than six years. And on Friday, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent in January. It added that while the entire economy lost 20,000 jobs, there was an increase of 11,000 jobs in manufacturing employment — the first such gain in three years.
"

No mention of the effect of inventory replenishment on the 5.7 gdp number and a pretty upbeat column. Norris is one fo the better ones of the MSM.

DC is a skimming operation - period.

I'm sure you'll agree then that it's time we cut some of those welfare queen red states off the federal tit, then, and get rid of some of that pork.

Wait, I forgot, when it's in your home district it's not pork. Funny how principles of fiscal conservatism seem to have geographic boundaries like that. You'd almost think that every publicly proclaimed fiscal conservative in the senate is a hypocrite who thinks he's talking to total rubes.

SNAFU wrote:

No mention of the effect of inventory replenishment on the 5.7 gdp number

Sorry to nit pick, but the inventories are still declining, it is just that in Q4 they declined by a smaller amount than in Q3.

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

I'm sure you'll agree then that it's time we cut some of those welfare queen red states off the federal tit, then

Yes. I think every State needs to pay in equally and expect to get nothing back. Set up an emergency relief fund for disasters and vote for appropriations from the fund.

The distortions are out of control.

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
Wait, I forgot, when it's in your home district it's not pork
Smile Exactly. It's a variant on the Upton Sinclair quote about understanding something when his salary depends on his not understanding it. We're hard-wired for duplicity.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

We're hard-wired for duplicity.

Yup.

Hoopajoops LTD -Rush -
Now for some progressive rock songs about hobbits fighting necromancers. Or trees.

The trees,
YouTube - Rush - The Trees (better sound)

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
We're hard-wired for duplicity.
Yup.

Luckily, as we're human beings, neurophysiology is not destiny.

MrM wrote:

Sorry to nit pick, but the inventories are still declining, it is just that in Q4 they declined by a smaller amount than in Q3.

That's ok, I think the 5.7 number , as CR's column had stated and PK concurred, was a blip. The 2.? something number is more representative for the rest of 2010. The following related column(long) is well written, I thought:

"

Formula shows why it's so hard to cut jobless rate
By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa, Ap Economics Writer 49 mins ago

WASHINGTON – The economy's 5.7 percent growth last quarter — the fastest pace since 2003 — was a step toward shrinking the nation's 10 percent unemployment rate.

There's just one problem: Growth would have to equal 5 percent for all of 2010 just to lower the average jobless rate for the year by 1 percentage point.

And economists don't think that's possible.

Most analysts say economic activity will slow to 2.5 percent or 3 percent growth for the current quarter as the benefits fade from government stimulus efforts and from companies drawing down less of their stockpiles.

That's why the Federal Reserve and outside economists think it will take until around the middle of the decade to lower the double-digit jobless rate to a more normal 5 or 6 percent.

Another way of looking at it: A net total of about 3 million jobs would have to be created this year to lower the average unemployment rate by 1 percentage point for 2010, economists estimate. Yet even optimists think the creation of 1 million net jobs is probably out of reach this year.

High unemployment poses a risk to the unfolding recovery because it leads consumers to spend less, keeping economic growth weak. A sharp pullback in spending might even push the economy back into recession. Joblessness also represents a danger for President Barack Obama's Democratic Party in this fall's congressional elections.

The National Association for Business Economics and the International Monetary Fund think gross domestic product will rise just under 3 percent for all of this year. GDP, the best gauge of economic activity, measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States.

To get a sense of just how deep a dent the worst recession since the 1930s has made in the economy, consider this: The economy shrank 2.4 percent for all of 2009 — the sharpest drop since 1946. It was also the first annual decline since 1991.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, and Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock, agree that the economy would have to grow roughly 5 percent for all of 2010 just to ratchet down the average unemployment rate for the year by 1 percentage point — to a still-high 9 percent.

Their math is based on Okun's law, named for economist Arthur Okun. In 1962, Okun produced a formula for the connection he saw between unemployment and economic activity.

Exactly how much GDP growth is needed to lower the unemployment rate for a given period varies. That's because the formula involves several factors besides GDP growth. It also considers, for example, businesses' productivity growth.

When the economy was recovering from the 2001 recession, it took two years to reduce the unemployment rate by nearly a full percentage point: It fell from 6 percent in 2003 to 5.1 percent in 2005. GDP growth averaged just over 3 percent.

Economists say the formula hasn't always held up perfectly in recent decades. Rather, it's relied upon as a rough rule of thumb for determining how much growth will be needed to lower unemployment.

But a near-textbook case occurred in 1976, when the economy expanded at a 5.4 percent pace. As Okun would have predicted, that growth drove down the unemployment rate by nearly a full percentage point: from 8.5 percent in 1975 to 7.7 percent.

Copyright © 2010 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
"

pavel.chichikov wrote:

I've read that physical anthropologists have found that remains of Paleolithic people show that they were healthy and well-nourished.

They were embarrassingly healthy. As soon as we became agricultural, we lost 6" in height.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

YouTube - One Toke Over The Line - Lawrence Welk - WTF! (1971)

Pure gold!

Hi Bill,

I like to make a prediction about the job based on a chart you've put together on calculatedrisk. I like to get you thoughts on it.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S2wfr6jIdyI/AAAAAAAAHcM/dfZbflHVHYg/s1600-h/PercentJobLossesJan2010.jpg

I predict the rate of job recovery will be as fast (maybe even slightly faster) as the rate of job lost during the down turn. In other words, if right now is the true bottom of unemployment, it will take about 2 years (beginning of 2012) to get back to prerecession peak.

Notice for all previous 10 recessions, the number of months it took for job to recover from the bottom to pre-recession peak level is approximately equal or even slightly less than the number of months required to go from pre-recession peak to recession bottom.

There was no exceptions, including the so call jobless recovery of 2001 and 1990 recessions.

I also think the concept of jobless recovery is bunk. In the 1990 and the 2001 recessions, there simply weren't that much job loss that need recovering!

Please let me know what do you think.

Thanks.

adornosghost wrote:
They were embarrassingly healthy. As soon as we became agricultural, we lost 6" in height.
Healthy folks who prospered in their communities would never have thought it necessary to impose civilization, nor to invent usury.

adornosghost wrote:

pavel.chichikov wrote:
I've read that physical anthropologists have found that remains of Paleolithic people show that they were healthy and well-nourished.
They were embarrassingly healthy. As soon as we became agricultural, we lost 6" in height.

Hunter gatherers didn't need to borrow for next years crop. Thus no need for bankers and also why epidemics were rare. Parasites, it seems, drive civilization for their own agenda.

adornosghost wrote:

that remains of Paleolithic people

I don't mean to be a wet blanket on the theme, but very few of the recent Stone Age people seem like ideal models for us. Aborigines, rain forest tribes, Inuit, New Guinea tribes; granted that they've been pushed into the margins, but there's a reason people switched to agriculture.

Edit: I've always wondered why Tierra del Fuego was populated. Or Minnesota for that matter.

my personal Rush fav...

I have to agree and thanks I needed that this am!

"In the world I see - you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway."

Rob Dawg wrote:
Parasites, it seems, drive civilization for their own agenda.
Laughing out loud Exactly.

They were embarrassingly healthy. As soon as we became agricultural, we lost 6" in height.

Could this conclusion be a bit skewed? Usually only a certain % of remains/fossils of animals are found, it's not as if the fossil record that we find now is a complete record of all species, extinctions, & geologic events. Could it be that fewer remains of hunter-gatherers have been found because it's a nomadic population? That an agriculturalist population would be more likely to have stable/fixed burial sites? So it's more likely that the skeletons,etc, would be discovered & a greater % of the population buried? (if burial was part of death rites). It seems as though there'd need to be quite a few assumptions or adjustments made to the data found.

Some societies/tribes were nomadic because of the climate, environment, others utilized crop growing as well, some probably did both--probably whatever seemed to work best.

I just finished shoveling us and the neighbor out. One and a half hours. The pine tree limbs are snapping all around us. I have a pine that is at least 100 ft high across from us and I am not thrilled with the direction it is tilting in. At least its limbs are snapping off.

I was woken at 8:30 am by Latinos going door to door looking to get paid to shovel. They were still working the neighborhood 20 minutes ago.

azurite wrote:

we lost 6" in height.

Could this conclusion be a bit skewed?

No, no! Taller people are healthier.

nova, any sign of the tree people?

Did you write about the footpaths of mass migration routes of people away from severe weather zones due to the economic upheaval, and discarded plastic rubbish and food wrapers being the wagon ruts of the 21st century, or did I simply dream that?

sdtfs wrote:

Taller people are healthier

and more advanced spiritually (cf. na'vi)

Parasites, it seems, drive civilization for their own agenda.

what happens when there's nothing left but parasites?

nova wrote:

I just finished shoveling us and the neighbor out. One and a half hours

Your ticker is in good working order. That is for sure.

sdtfs wrote:

No, no! Taller people are healthier.

Paeleolithic basketball was far superior to it's current incarnation ... that's a fact.

Cool, I see there is some interesting in the hearing I am sharing with Taleb. Let me know if there are some problems.

The great thing about Congressional hearings is that they aren't copyrighted... I imagine this is why C-SPAN adopted a liberal non-commercial use policy. I think C-SPAN would lose if they argued copyright to Congressional hearings... even the video portions.

Hoops,

The local tree people have retreated further into the woods. Where they were setup is getting stripped of the trees so they can build a bank. I don't know if they went for a shelter.

Yeah, I wrote something that in book iii

barfly wrote:
what happens when there's nothing left but parasites?
We call that utopia. True Darwinistic triumph.

California gets back just 78 cents for every dollar it sends to Washington
HA! DC is a skimming operation - period. How could you expect to get 94% back and keep all the federal programs including defense, FBI, anti-terror... going, along with all the hopeless pork-ridden bills.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

California receives the most defense contracts of all the states:

Defense Contracts- Expenditures (most recent) by state

When we were up in NoVa my dad invested in a snowblower and shared liberally.... you would think health insurance companies would subsidize these things....

Hoops,

Actually what you just wrote was better... Smile

sdtfs wrote:

No, no! Taller people are healthier.

If so, then the Dutch, who are not known to be hunter-gatherers, are currently the healthiest people.

Which Country has the Tallest People?

barfly wrote:

what happens when there's nothing left but parasites?

They (we) eat their (our) own.

I've been watching it unfold for the past 10 years. Got Popcorn?

The parasites die or eat each other.

SNAFU wrote:

Their math is based on Okun's law, named for economist Arthur Okun. In 1962, Okun produced a formula for the connection he saw between unemployment and economic activity.

A statistical analysis of the data, especially like the one in CR's last chart, probably captures the relationship between unemployment and economic activity as well as anyone's formula. In fact, I suspect this sort of analysis can be used to refine one's economic models and formulas to improve their predictive capability, along with one's understanding of underlying economic principles.

Damn, shoveling snow made me hungry...must go eat.

nova, I think we think along the same lines.

From the previous thread - a commenter on Krugman's site said: "The continue use of this slur [PIIGS] by the Anglo-Saxon press has made headlines in the Spanish press a number of times, but it is quite surprising to find a Novel Laureate using it."

barfly wrote:

what happens when there's nothing left but parasites?

BankerWorldâ„¢!

Remember that 70k year ago volcanic explosion that decimated us.

Even at asympotic rates of population control it takes a long time
to get to overcrowding when you are only at 2000 or so.

Also, the weak got eaten, Darwinian contraints were functioning.

Nomads could run away from macro human predators, farmers
can't.

Nice charts, CR, very interesting, thank you.

But looking at the One Month net jobs change vs unemployment rate, the regression looks to be linear, while the regressions on the remaining charts look to be polynomials (or some other nonlinear function). While your present charts still make your point, it would have been better if all the charts used the same type of regression.

Woolsey wrote:

"The continue use of this slur [PIIGS] by the Anglo-Saxon press has made headlines in the Spanish press a number of times, but it is quite surprising to find a Novel Laureate using it."

I haven't read any Krugman novels. Does he write romance, or sci-fi?

Woolsey wrote:

The continue use of this slur [PIIGS] by the Anglo-Saxon press has made headlines in the Spanish press a number of times

I wanted to use SPIGOT, but Turkey and Oman wouldn't cooperate.

lawyerliz, how's the priesthood treating you? Anoint any transactions lately?

thanks, folks. That's kind of what I thought.

It's parasites all the way down.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
I've been watching it unfold for the past 10 years.
We all have. They are saving their own at our expense. It's not just privatize gains and socialize losses, either, it's privatize gains made on public money and socialize losses of capital plus losses on investments made with that capital.

I did a reverse mtg last week.

Otherwise it's evictions and foreclosures and foreclosures
and evictions.

gruntled wrote:

A statistical analysis of the data, especially like the one in CR's last chart, probably captures the relationship between unemployment and economic activity as well as anyone's formula. In fact, I suspect this sort of analysis can be used to refine one's economic models and formulas to improve their predictive capability, along with one's understanding of underlying economic principles.

The number that has stuck in my head, is that it would take 3m additional jobs in 2010 to reduce the UE number by 1% and it is very unlikely that 1m additional jobs will be created in 2010.

SNAFU wrote:

The number that has stuck in my head, is that it would take 3m additional jobs in 2010 to reduce the UE number by 1% and it is very unlikely that 1m additional jobs will be created in 2010.

That does seem like a pretty steep mountain to climb.

SNAFU wrote:

The number that has stuck in my head, is that it would take 3m additional jobs in 2010 to reduce the UE number by 1% and it is very unlikely that 1m additional jobs will be created in 2010.

Well, you can always count on people to give up looking for jobs and drop out the labor force

lawyerlize,
Ever heard of someone in FLA staying 3-4 years without paying any off the mortgage? Father of YLSP claims its happening in Tampa...

Really, the only thing that will reverse the death spiral is
tariffs. Call them pollution tariffs.

Oh, and I asked the B of A lady, why they didn't finance their
own REOs. She agreed with me that this will slow the death
spiral, but said the problem was the regulators didn't want them
to do this!! Actually this makes sense to me. In times of yore this
probably wasn't a good idea, hence the rule.

And one can't abandon a rule, because it might cause a problem
somehow, somewhere, and a bureaucrat would be punished.

Yep, one of my clients hasn't paid in 35 months and no matter what happens, they
won't get her out before September. She wants a mod.

It's very common for a foreclosure mill to file a case and then do
nothing for a year.

MrM wrote:

Well, you can always count on people to give up looking for jobs and drop out the labor force

True, more so if UE benefit is not extended beyond the latest extension.

Speaking of Jobs, There is a nice interactive graphic on the WSJ site. With animation and everything:

Jobless Rate Falls to 9.7%; U.S. Sheds 20,000 Jobs - WSJ.com

One of my clients was at the end of the trail, with summary judgment scheduled
for November, 2008 yes 8. I noticed that they had dropped the wife as defendant,
so filed a motion. Haven't the faintest idea why they did this, but from their
perspective, it was wrong, and all they had to do was add her back in again.

Here we are in Feb, 2010 and they haven't added her back in again yet. Could have
been done in a month or 2.

Here where the Winter Olympics are due to be held in less than a week, it's been highs of 12-13C (54-56F) and partly sunny with the occasional rainshower. In other word, typical for around here.
It's going to cool off to high 40's for next week it looks like:
Vancouver,
British Columbia
- 7 Day Forecast - Environment Canada

You have snow machines? Gee maybe Fla should try to get the
Winter Olympics.

lawyerliz wrote:

And one can't abandon a rule, because it might cause a problem
somehow, somewhere, and a bureaucrat would be punished.

Weren't they saying that about Glass-Steagel a few decades back?
Party

lawyerliz wrote:

You have snow machines? Gee maybe Fla should try to get the
Winter Olympics.

It does have to be below freezing for them to work, unfortunately. And the snow that they create could never be confused with real snow, except for in appearance.

lawyerliz wrote:

You have snow machines? Gee maybe Fla should try to get the
Winter Olympics.

They're working full time. Also trucking and Its a chopper, baby in snow from the interior. I suppose they could always fly everyone 600 miles to Calgary...

Just back from morning coffee: here's some bumper-sticker wisdom for the day (or lifetime).

"Wag more, bark less"

Death spiral until they are allowed to finance their
own REOs.

I thought it was just the banks being stupid, but now
I see it was foolish, it takes a combination of the govt
bureaucrats and the banks to be that stupid.

Glod knows they have enough lobbyists that if they wanted
to get this thru they could. They prolly have enough to
get the congress to vote that the sky is green, not blue.

noob goldberg wrote:

You have snow machines? Gee maybe Fla should try to get the
Winter Olympics.

It does have to be below freezing for them to work,

Yeah, you're right-so if it drops into low 40's down here especially with clear skies, it should be around freezing up there. That's the risks with having an event on a mountain less than 5000 feet high in the mildest park of Canada.

Somewhat OT, but interesting: the effects of a lengthy unemployment continue even after getting a job (even good ones)

After Escaping Jobless Rolls, Trauma May Linger - NY Times

One of the people interviewed indicates that extended UE has meant a complete change in attitude towards owning a home--the family now intends to stay renters--although they still own (but are not making payments on or living in) their house.

here's some bumper-sticker wisdom for the day

I'm fond of the sticker that reads: "wear your seatbelt, it makes it harder for the aliens to suck you out of your car."

doug r wrote:

Yeah, you're right-so if it drops into low 40's down here especially with clear skies, it should be around freezing up there. That's the risks with having an event on a mountain less than 5000 feet high in the mildest park of Canada.

I also thought it was a bit risky to have it at Whistler, but I really didn't think they'd have this much trouble. Murphy's law, I guess.

From each State according to ability.
To each State according to need.

sillythings wrote:

Please let me know what do you think

This is a prank, right ?

doug r wrote:

Yeah, you're right-so if it drops into low 40's down here especially with clear skies, it should be around freezing up there. That's the risks with having an event on a mountain less than 5000 feet high in the mildest park of Canada.

You make it sound like the Olympics is about the sport. Yeah, next you'll be telling me that thingy tomorrow is about football. Meanwhile the Sierra ski areas are running out of places to put the stuff (plus three feet since that picture was taken last week.).

noob goldberg wrote:

I also thought it was a bit risky to have it at Whistler, but I really didn't think they'd have this much trouble. Murphy's law, I guess.

So, are you and EHP going to join the protesters? They made the LATimes this morning:
Protesters amass ahead of Olympics - latimes.com

Wink

broward wrote:
From each State according to ability.
To each State according to need.

And for the Federales?

"Wag more, bark less"

I have the T-shirts.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

And for the Federales?

The usual cut of the action.

All this preoccupation with unemployment. I realize some people like to work. I think it's overrated, personally.

Work is reserved for the little people, just like taxes.

sm_landlord wrote:

So, are you and EHP going to join the protesters? They made the LATimes this morning:

If I'm going to fly 3000 miles on my own dime it's going to be to somewhere a lot warmer and less populated than Vancouver during the Olympics. Smile

sm_landlord wrote:

Protesters amass ahead of Olympics - latimes.com

I can't wait to see what happens to the Vancouver housing market in two months.

Rob Dawg wrote:

I can't wait to see what happens to the Vancouver housing market in two months.

If the Vancouver housing market crashes I'll hop on a plane and buy a place there. I can think of few better places to raise kids than the lower mainland of BC.

By the way, there's this npr guy--I think the show is called The Story--
who has been interviewing a lot of Haitians and people who are adopting
Haitians, etc.

To a Haitian, if you have enough to eat most of the time you are
rich. This one adoptee said that he thought that he was rich because
he nearly always had enough to eat, but sometimes they had only
one piece of bread, and he had to share with his 2 half-sisters. But
in his society, he was rich.

broward - I'm still stuck on your comment yesterday about how this is all like one big episode of Survivor.

Truman Show stuff. Mind bending.

My view of hunter-gatherers is influenced by the experience of an anthropologist I used to know. She lived with an indigenous group in the Peruvian Amazon in the late 60s, early 70s. Actually, they were gardener-hunters. Women gardened, men hunted. She said it was a pretty good life. People spent lots of time in their hammocks, gossiping, telling jokes and making babies. A small-pox epidemic had brought their population down from about 300 to the 80s, and they were enthusiastically repopulating. If the men got too lazy and didn't hunt, the women would get on their cases, telling them: If we don't get some meat around here we're going to eat *******.

They had their anxieties though. There's a book called To Hunt In the Morning, by Janet Siskind. I've been told it's still well-known in Peru.

lawyerliz wrote:

There are some who work to eat

Oh, you mean, "You don't work, you don't eat" ?

That's absurd. Much too pedestrian for this great society we have.

Rob Dawg wrote:
I can't wait to see what happens to the Vancouver housing market in two months.
The economic equivalent of this? Woman on Cell Phone and Eating Walks in Front of Train (old news from 2007)

Bearly - note the data-set, the "if", and consider whether if not prank, then common or garden ignorance.

At least it has the benefit of brevity. Okun's Law, which is just as specious, has taken much longer to expound at times.

C

Woman on Cell Phone and Eating Walks in Front of Train

Would a lemming do that?

pavel, how much snow did you get?

I checked the moniker after and realized it was a troll to get the grouchy natives riled. We used to get a lot more trolls...

pavel, how much snow did you get?

I haven't seen any official total so far. We're in NW DC. Judging from the height of the snow on the handle of my shovel I'd estimate approx. 2 feet., maybe slightly less. It's still snowing.

bearly wrote:

I checked the moniker after and realized it was a troll to get the grouchy natives riled. We used to get a lot more trolls...

Is it a bad sign when the trolls have all seen the light and converted to the dark side?

pavel.chichikov wrote:
I haven't seen any official total so far. We're in NW DC
Oh, I had no idea you lived inside the event horizon...

We tramped a bit around the neighborhood, and then I shoveled for about an hour. I have to tell you that once you get up into your 70s your stamina will lessen noticeably.

Oh, I had no idea you lived inside the event horizon...

I don't think we have any more to do with the federal government than people in Illinois or Colorado. I can walk to Maryland in ten minutes.

In fact, since we have no voting representation in Congress, we have less to do with the federal government.

Hey, all you ObamaCare cheerleaders! Especially those that celebrated the Canadian system as the model. This is what I was desceribing. If you can afford it for anything but treating an ingrown toenail...

A report is emerging this morning, that confirms that Premier Danny Williams has gone to the United States for Heart Surgery

Premier Williams Newfoundland & Labrador: Heart Surgery In U.S. | NowPublic News Coverage

pavel.chichikov wrote:

I have to tell you that once you get up into your 70s your stamina will lessen noticeably.

I'm in my 30's, pavel, and I can't stomach more than an hour of shoveling. Of course it all depends on snow density, but an hour of slogging through heavy wet snow is enough to kick the crap out of anyone.

Mean reversion should sort that out, pavel...!

C

Central Bankers often meet in a shroud of secrecy. Is this a cause of concern?

Secret summit of top bankers | News.com.au

I'm in my 40s and I feel your stamina pain. We dig out enough around here to make my heart ache for your area right now (literally). May the (warm) wind always be at your back...

bearly wrote:

Premier Danny Williams has gone to the United States for Heart Surgery

Who is paying for it?

bearly wrote:

A report is emerging this morning, that confirms that Premier Danny Williams has gone to the United States for Heart Surgery

You're right, this is a damning indictment of the Canadian healthcare system.

I'm in my 30's, pavel, and I can't stomach more than an hour of shoveling. Of course it all depends on snow density, but an hour of slogging through heavy wet snow is enough to kick the crap out of anyone.

Noob, we hike daily on trails which are not punishing but still provide a pretty good workout. The past few days have been on snow, and there's a marked difference in the effort required compared to walking on a dry trail, even a fairly steep one.

If you judge a country by who's breaking into to it, so should we see who's comes here for health care!

Mean reversion should sort that out, pavel...!

Counterpointer, I don't understand.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

I have to tell you that once you get up into your 70s your stamina will lessen noticeably.

My dad was complaining of this as well while we were at the gym over the xmas holiday. I kid you not: He is bitching because he no longer works out with 180 lbs on the bench, and is stuck with low values like 140. My old man could kick my butt if he needed to.

My reply was therefore unsympathic. Smile

noob goldberg wrote:

You're right, this is a damning indictment of the Canadian healthcare system

A high profile government official. It happens every single day. My father had to come to have surgery done to the USA twice because the CDN system was dragging it out for years, I presume hoping he would die first. It's a system that is built around severe rationing. I have many stories, all horror stories.

pavel.chichikov wrote:
I don't think we have any more to do with the federal government than people in Illinois or Colorado. I can walk to Maryland in ten minutes.
Smile Gravitational pull that ensures the moon orbits the earth isn't anyone's fault either, merely a function of its position in the gravitational field our planet creates.

Wow, bearly, you're right. This segment from your linked article made my stomach turn:

Canada's elite, while part of our healthcare system, has been seeking treatment in the U.S. for decades. Danny Williams is only doing what has been common practice in the past.

Talk about two-tier health care. A glimpse of the future?

bearly wrote:

I have many stories, all horror stories.

There are no shortage of horror stories from any medical system. But I offer to you that the Canadian healthcare system is rife with problems, many stemming from rationing and a lack of medical system infrastructure investment.

But it seems to do a better job meeting the needs of all of our population than the American system, even if it's starved for resources. I wouldn't trade it, personally. But I'm also not dictating what American's should choose. Choose whatever you want.

Well, clearly your stamina can be plotted on a curve and is simply going through a recession. Since reversion to the mean is a standard modeling technique, you just need to plot your intended inputs, generate efficiencies, and make some personal policy changes to hasten a return to full stamina output. In the interim, you have a stamina gap.

C

Spunkmeyer wrote:

And, as a self-employed individual (whose income easily halved in 2009) I don't show up one way or the other, but have certainly felt the effects of the recession.

If you are self-employed and receive 1099-MISC income, you do count in the Household Survey.

As I posted yesterday, about 10% of the Household Survey "employed" are self-employed.

The biggest difference between 1099-MISC self-employed and W2 employed people is that self-employed people (mostly) don't pay into FUTA and don't qualify for unemployment benefits. So, if their income falls off, they don't show up in unemployment statistics. But they do show up in Household Survey employment.

It's my impression that a lot of long-time 1099 self-employed people are hanging in there, doing okay, maybe on a little less income...but they are coping better than a lot of people who depend on W2s.

Bearly

Is it a system of public + priv health care?
Minimum amount of care for everyone and you can also have your own insurance policy?

Outsider wrote:
Talk about two-tier health care. A glimpse of the future?
Gattaca (1997)

Naturally, those with the most money deserve the best health care, as they have shown themselves fittest to survive. The more money you have, the healthier you deserve to be!

you just need to plot your intended inputs, generate efficiencies, and make some personal policy changes to hasten a return to full stamina output.

I think I'll take a nap instead.

pavel.chichikov wrote:
I think I'll take a nap instead.
No! That would allow your body to rest, heal and prepare for future activity. You need a stimulus package!

noob goldberg wrote:

But it seems to do a better job meeting the needs of all of our population than the American system, even if it's starved for resources. I wouldn't trade it, but I guess it's just a cultural thing.

There was this piece on yesterday's pm news about Blue Cross Anthem rates in the bay area going up 39% effective March. So this couple in Marin, their monthly rate will be ~1650$ ; bigger than their mortgage! So it is not a cultural thing, it is between having some coverage and none at all given the rates as above!

Of course, RIF. How could I forget. Like a caste system. The lower rungs deserve to be there.

Eh, medical care is overrated anyway.
/s

SNAFU wrote:

So it is not a cultural thing, it is between having some coverage and none at all given the rates as above!

To be fair: That sounds like a gold-plated plan. There are usually cheaper higher-deductible plans.

Edit: I've always wondered why Tierra del Fuego was populated. Or Minnesota for that matter.

Can't speak for Tierra del Fuego, but as for Minnesota, why wouldn't you want to live in an area with ample fish and game and wild rice, abundant water, and plenty of fuel (wood) for heating?

I'm not sure that's the kind of entrepreneurial spirit we're looking for here Mr Chichikov.

C

josap wrote:

Is it a system of public + priv health care?

My father used to tip his Dr, for more prompt treatment, under the table, if that's what you mean. But the facilities are scarce and rationed severely. Back when I left in the 70s the better specialists fled to the USA. I haven't lived there in a long time so the only current knowledge of the system I have is through my dad. He went to a hospital and they decided he was too healthy for extensive diagnostics. When he came to visit I took him in and he had a orange sized cancerous lump in his lung. We discovered that after he had some lung capacity tests done, which the drs in Canada didn't perform. I have at least 20 stories, hip replacement that they stalled for 5 years, on and on.

Getting old in Canada isn't an honor.

josap wrote:

Minimum amount of care for everyone and you can also have your own insurance policy?

Canadians have very visceral debates about two-tiered healthcare systems. I personally believe that there is a stronger role for the market to play in the Canadian system than has yet been permitted, but I also firmly believe that a great deal of Canada's reduced crime rate can be attributed to our healthcare system, and the reduced stress and class stratification that it causes. Providing reduced coverage to the poor would increase social stratification, in my mind.

A homeless man and a senator can share a hospital room in Canada. Something about that possibility appears to reduce class boundaries out in the real world.

Outsider wrote:
Of course, RIF. How could I forget. Like a caste system. The lower rungs deserve to be there.
Exactly. They have all just made bad choices, or are suffering the side effects of karma. Nothing to see here.

JP wrote:

That sounds like a gold-plated plan. There are usually cheaper higher-deductible plans.

Depends on age, over 55 you pay a bundle, pre-exixting and you are priced out as well. My isnure went over my mortgage in 2002 due to a small heart issue.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

What is your life worth?

And knowing how people answer that question is why we have such a predatory medical system.

I mean seriously: I'm amazed that someone who bankrupts the sick for merely being sick enjoys depositing their money.

bearly wrote:

Hey, all you ObamaCare cheerleaders! Especially those that celebrated the Canadian system as the model. This is what I was describing. If you can afford it for anything but treating an ingrown toenail...
A report is emerging this morning, that confirms that Premier Danny Williams has gone to the United States for Heart Surgery
Premier Williams Newfoundland & Labrador: Heart Surgery In U.S. | NowPublic News Coverage

That case proves nothing. It is the same as to compare the health level of top politicians/businessmen as opposed to comparing health level of the average person.
Of course the US can offer the top of the line medical care in some areas - but only to those who can afford it or whose health insurance will cover it. The key questions of the health care debate are 1) universal access to health care (i.e., the problem with uninsured and denial of care to insured) and 2) the cost of health care for the society and for individual.

How does this news relate to either of these issues/

What a lot of people don't seem to understand is...self-employment isn't a condition that occurs when a person isn't able to get a full-time wage job. For a lot of people, it's a career and lifestyle decision you make fairly early on, and then get used to. It certainly was for me.

It means that you don't necessarily have any income security, except what you (and your compadres) personally are able to drum up. But over time, a lot of self-employed people are able to drum up quite a bit and keep it rolling.

I recently told a friend who got downsized from a corporate W2 job and was thinking about "consulting"...self-employment can take a few years to get going down the right track. But once it does, it tends to roll on with some momentum.

There might be no better example of that than CR and this blog, by the way, although I don't know for sure.

JP wrote:

To be fair: That sounds like a gold-plated plan. There are usually cheaper higher-deductible plans.

My personal plan costs over $10K/year. And that's with a $10K deductible. Just for me, myself, and I.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

What is your life worth?

To whom?

bearly wrote:

Getting old in Canada isn't an honor.

And yet, somehow, people end up growing quite old in Canada. Even older than in the USA, in fact.

mal wrote:

Can't speak for Tierra del Fuego,

I can. Did a week visit there, damn cold. Insane, never ending wind. Ice flows in the river and on the ocean. I could see no reason to live there at all. (But nice people)

MrM wrote:

That case proves nothing

Please find a case where a US politician (a Governor) went to Canada to get medical care. It's that simple.

JP wrote:

I mean seriously: I'm amazed that someone who bankrupts the sick for merely being sick enjoys depositing their money

Enjoys it? Hardly, I see most can handle money responsibly. BK is the cleansing for mostly irresponsible. I bet most have lots of debt and then blame the Health problem as the main problem when it was just the straw that broke the camels back.

josap wrote:

Depends on age, over 55 you pay a bundle, pre-exixting and you are priced out as well.

Well that's their own fault. There are alternatives to turning 55.
And pre-existing? Those sick people are using all the medical resources, so we need to make them pay the equiv of a mortgage.

mal wrote:
Can't speak for Tierra del Fuego, but as for Minnesota, why wouldn't you want to live in an area with ample fish and game and wild rice, abundant water, and plenty of fuel (wood) for heating?
'Cuz it's flyover, man. Everyone knows the prestige of a location is related to its population density and the number of other people who have heard of it.

JP wrote:

I'm amazed that someone who bankrupts the sick for merely being sick

Every. State. Has. Medicaid.

For those that can pay there's insurance or savings. If someone wants a Carnival Cruise, a big screen TV, 5 cellphones... whatever. I don't care.

55 shouldn't have a mortgage in my opinion. Pretty much cover the health insurance cost.

bearly wrote:

Please find a case where a US politician (a Governor) went to Canada to get medical care. It's that simple.

Even if all millionaires and politicians around the world choose to get medical care in the US, it has little to do with the health care debate.
Please think about the two points I mentioned: the universal access to health care and the cost of health care for the society and for average individual.
I would be interested in mass examples of middle class Canadians going to the US to get medical care.

[Must. Save. Thread. From. Healthcare. Gnnnnn]

That secret bankers' meeting should be hilarious. Question one for RBA Gov could be "when you said you were holding wholesale rates in order to let the rest of the world catch up, what the F*&%^$ hell did you think you were doing?".

"Ahh, it was, uhhh, statement of the obvious, really. Higher here, lower elsewhere. Mine aren't coming down, ya know. More prawn, cobber?"

"Mr Stevens, do you realize the scale of bond vigilantism you may have triggered?!?"

"Eh? Not here, mate. All bet the farm on the mines and the house. Dopey buggers."

C

May none of you have an illness to understand how bankruptcy can occur with full health coverage and no mortgage.

Time to shovel more snow. Nytol

JP wrote:

May none of you have an illness to understand how bankruptcy can occur with full health coverage and no mortgage.

Amen.

MrM,

A late friend of mine kids lives in Canada and went to Detroit of all major care including having their baby delivered. No one in the US is denied reasonable health care.

bearly wrote:

Every. State. Has. Medicaid.

Medicaid - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Having a limited income is one of the primary requirements for Medicaid eligibility, but poverty alone does not qualify a person to receive Medicaid benefits unless they also fall into one of the defined eligibility categories. According to the CMS website, "Medicaid does not provide medical assistance for all poor persons. Even under the broadest provisions of the Federal statute (except for emergency services for certain persons), the Medicaid program does not provide health care services, even for very poor persons, unless they are in one of the designated eligibility groups."

JP wrote:

May none of you have an illness to understand how bankruptcy can occur with full health coverage and no mortgage.

I can, last year cost just me only over $25K and have had bills like that for close to a decade.

Counterpointer wrote:

"Eh? Not here, mate. All bet the farm on the mines and the house. Dopey buggers."

Awesome, C. Who would have thought the Australians would be the trigger? Smile

MrM wrote:

I would be interested in mass examples of middle class Canadians going to the US to get medical care

My father was middle class, but over 60. He had to either wait indefinitely or come to the US. MRI scan took 8 months (& a "tip"). Takes me a day.

I will share a little story with you - A buddy of mine from high school started a CDN health care related business. He is an entrepreneur and saw an opportunity! He noticed medical equipment in CDN hospitals was old, scarce and in disrepair. His business - Buy surplus equipment in USA and bring it to Canada, sell to big hospitals. Used surplus equipment is an upgrade.. That's state of the art.

I realize there are trade-offs but I prefer to have the best when I need it.

MrM wrote:

I would be interested in mass examples of middle class Canadians going to the US to get medical care.

I would be curious in mass examples of Americans going to Mexico for medical care.

No one in the US is denied reasonable health care.

So people who complain of bankruptcy for medical reasons or denial of service for one reason or another are lying?

EDIT: removed because I'm tired of this debate. It never ends.

Counterpointer wrote:

"Eh? Not here, mate. All bet the farm on the mines and the house. Dopey buggers."

The Aussies have built their own housing bubble with gov subsidies that exceed anything in the states. Someone should create a flash video that shows the expanding and popping global bubbles (to scale of course) over the last 40 years.

I also wonder if China, as heir apparent, is not overspending the same way the US did in the 1920s.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

She said it was a pretty good life. People spent lots of time in their hammocks, gossiping, telling jokes and making babies.

We can do that. If you decide to live your life with the same amount of possessions and view of the future, (except for the laptop, since you'll be posting from your hammock), I think it's about the same.

believe me denial happens here.

I have a pal who is a med malpractice atty andf any time
I want to feel nauseated, I talk to him.

Off to spend money.

lawyerliz wrote:

Off to spend money.

Good girl, LL. Glad to see you doing your part!

noob goldberg wrote:

How much did it cost him for the MRI in the USA?

He stayed in the USA quite a lot. He carried a regular American insurance policy, so nothing for the MRI itself.

noob goldberg wrote:

mass examples of Americans going to Mexico for medical care.

Ca, Az, Tx NM seniors go to Mex for allot of medical, dental and medications. Mostly due to cost.

And if you live in Mex for part of the year you can get the state insurance for $250.00 per year and the free medical that goes with it.

It's not that well appreciated but Chimerica's little brother is ChinOz.

C

pavel.chichikov wrote:

So people who complain of bankruptcy for medical reasons or denial of service for one reason or another are lying?

The US is treat first then figure out who pays. BK is a god sent compared to loosing your life. Is money that in important? Lying to themselves maybe, quite common today when programed to be a victim..

"And more from Paul Krugman on the problems of a single currency: The Spanish Tragedy"

Just think if California had their own currency...

Counterpointer wrote:

It's not that well appreciated but Chimerica's little brother is ChinOz.

Australia provides the resources.
China provides the labor.
America provides the paper.
win-win-win?

BK is a god sent compared to loosing your life.

Ben,do you think you might be rationalizing a bit?

noob goldberg wrote:

I would be curious in mass examples of Americans going to Mexico for medical care

I am quite certain a lot more come to the US for medical care from MX. I know many.

Can we get some more frightened seniors on medicare in here arguing against expanding socialized medicine? Nothing encapsulates so perfectly the relationship between the grasping elderly and my generation. Gorge all you can on the rich fruits of your fathers and befoul as best you can the cribs of your sons. Get while the getting is good. Pile on the debt for excesses while castigating the poor. Consume it all, and discover that even a stomach which devours the world is not big enough to satisfy your hunger. It is no matter. As the inevitable march of nature dictates, your time will have passed soon enough. We are young, we have a great capacity for suffering, and we can wait and endure. With your passing, you will have robbed us as best you could, destroyed as many social institutions as was expedient, and left as many problems as was convenient for you, but at least we'll live to see a day when we can rise from under your yoke and suffer the fruits of your poisonous legacy in freedom.

Keep railing against socialized medicine, you bitter, aging medicare queens. You will only hold it back for another five years at most. Your kind will be remembered with revulsion, a clutching, backwards, despoiling curse on an entire generation.

Pretty bitter stuff and fun to write! I don't actually hold that viewpoint, but I sure can sympathize with it.

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

What a perfect pigging.

That was epic, hoops. Absolutely epic post and subsequent epic Pigged.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

The US is treat first then figure out who pays.

Nope, only in life threatening situations.

Friend of mine got hit by a car while riding his bike. Broke his elbow. No care at the emergency room, was not life threatening. Took him 8 months to find a Dr, hosp etc to do surgery he could pay for. Elbow is still screwed up.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Ben,do you think you might be rationalizing a bit?

Did God give you a warranty? No he gave you the chance to live life and a better one if you do the right thing.

josap,

The 60 year old self employed with no insurance? Do you seriously think he was the responsible party here? Maybe AZ doesn't treat broken bones but every where I lived the do.

noob goldberg wrote:

I would be curious in mass examples of Americans going to Mexico for medical care.

"But the fact is that medical tourism is now a global phenomenon. Last year around 150,000 Americans were driven abroad by the astronomical costs of their system and the industry is growing by about 15-20 per cent annually. Recently there was a report that five of the big American corporations in the Fortune 500 have been considering adding overseas medical treatment as part of employees' health insurance package."

Sunday Telegraph report on health tourism

noob goldberg wrote:

I would be curious in mass examples of Americans going to Mexico for medical care.

Here you go

Medical Tourism Mexico: Health Tourism Destination
Mexico's health care lures Americans - USATODAY.com
Retirees Flock to Mexico for the Sun and the Health Care | PBS NewsHour | Dec. 28, 2009 | PBS
Medical Tourism In Mexico
Health Care in Mexico
American elderly head to Mexico for cheaper medical care |
kens5.com | San Antonio News, Local News, Breaking News, Weather
| News

6 Million Americans Travel Abroad Each Year for Surgeries, Medical Treatments - Health News - Health.com

From USA Today
It's unclear how many Americans use IMSS, but with between 40,000 and 80,000 U.S. retirees living in Mexico, the number probably runs "well into the thousands," said David Warner, a public policy professor at the University of Texas.
"They take very good care of us," said Jessica Moyal, 59, of Hollywood, Fla., who now lives in San Miguel de Allende, Mexico, a popular retirement enclave for Americans.

Fron HealthDay News
An estimated 6 million Americans are traveling each year to such countries as India, Costa Rica, Mexico and Thailand in search of less-expensive treatments for simple and complex procedures. Even France and Belgium tend to be cheaper than the United States.

Sounds like the free market will balance out with Medical Holidays.

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