".....and suggest continued job losses."

.....yep....you ain't seen nothin' yet....

But claims have peaked, so now they must fall, even though they are rising.

It's a lagging indicator anyway, right?

"Importantly, the Labor Department said there are no special factors in the latest week."

.....(read: "Shucks, there's no way to spin this")

Gourmets find the Unabankers a bit too rich for their taste, and not much flavor is left in them after they sold their souls for a large pittance.

It looks like humans are still recessing; while the statistics recover.

:grin: Thanx.....

There are almost 15 million state and local govt employees in Dec 2009. Anybody want to guess how many there are at year end 2010?

Including military and Private security military personnel? 16

Google to enlist NSA to help it ward off cyberattacks

From 2008 "Does Spending More on Education Improve Academic Achievement?" Does Spending More on Education Improve Academic Achievement?

It's from Heritage, but still, it makes some interesting points.

"American spending on public K–12 education is at an all-time high and is still rising. Polls show that many people believe that a lack of resources is a primary problem facing public schools. Yet spending on American K–12 public education is at an all-time high. Approximately $9,300 is spent per pupil. Real spending per stu dent has increased by 23.5 percent over the past decade and by 49 percent over the past 20 years."

It's important for the narrative about the economy to be boiled down into either a sporting event or a sugary frozen treat, tastes better that way.

The suspense of how this is going to end is gnawing at me. I think I'll just read Gibbons' Decline & Fall of the Roman Empire and skip to the end.

Comrade Peronista wrote:

Private security military personnel? 16

Our Praetorian Guard

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

It's important for the narrative about the economy to be boiled down into either a sporting event or a sugary frozen treat, tastes better that way

You don't like medical analogies?

How about cartoons? The "Wiley Coyote Moment" has been a popular term

some investor guy wrote:

Does Spending More on Education Improve Academic Achievement?
It's from Heritage, but still, it makes some interesting points.

I believe I've mentioned this here before, but in MA, there is a distinct negative correlation between $ per student and academic performance. The best performing students in the state go to parochial schools where it costs about $4k/yr to educate them. It's well above $9k/yr in Boston Public schools, and they are some of the worst performing.

Whatever happened to those big immigration detention camps that were supposed to be built?

"A KBR press release says: “The contract, which is effective immediately, provides for establishing temporary detention and processing capabilities to augment existing Immigration and Custom Enforcement Detention and Removal Operations (DRO) Program facilities in the event of an emergency influx of immigrants into the U.S., or to support the rapid development of new programs. The contingency support contract provides for planning and, if required, initiation of specific engineering, construction and logistics support tasks to establish, operate and maintain one or more expansion facilities. The contract may also provide migrant detention support to other U.S. Government organizations in the event of an immigration emergency, as well as the development of a plan to react to a national emergency, such as a natural disaster. In the event of a natural disaster, the contractor could be tasked with providing housing for ICE personnel performing law enforcement functions in support of relief efforts.’’ Detention centers for who, exactly?

Are they still waiting for an "immigration emergency"? Have they decided to just use vacant condo towers if the need arises? I don't recall this being in the stimulus bills.

OT: The outflow of physical metal from bank vaults is happening at a mind bending pace:

"Breakdown of the Gold Market" by Jim Willie, CB, FSU Editorial 02/03/2010

Obama’s latest problem: Democrats who still love the Bush tax cuts.

One way to judge the health of our political system is to divide the president’s agenda into three categories. First are the items that seem like they’d be hard to accomplish and actually are hard—health care reform and cap-and-trade come to mind. Then come the items that sound easy to the uninitiated but turn out to be pretty hard—like eliminating wasteful farm subsidies or obsolete weapons systems. Lots of presidents have taken on these programs only to find that they have powerful, well-organized defenders. Finally, there are some legislative goals that sound easy to accomplish, and normally are easy, until some unique brand of dysfunction intervenes—say, some senator takes a special interest in an obscure appointment.

I believe I've mentioned this here before, but in MA, there is a distinct negative correlation between $ per student and academic performance. The best performing students in the state go to parochial schools where it costs about $4k/yr to educate them. It's well above $9k/yr in Boston Public schools, and they are some of the worst performing.

Yeah... it's a cultural issue not a resources issue.

I went through that in my own life -- when the people around me didn't care about education I didn't care about education. When the people around me did, then I started to also.

Black Star Ranch wrote:

.....yep....you ain't seen nothin' yet....

YouTube - Bachman Turner Overdrive - You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

ac wrote:

hen the politicians will have nobody to contribute to their campaigns.

I am in a part of finance where it is a major administrative hassle to contribute to campaigns, and there are fairly low limits.

I should check and see if the Supreme Court case changed anything.

some investor guy wrote:

While I'm sure there is some selection bias, one of the interesting points in some of the literature is how much many large districts have loaded up with administrators. I hear similar complaints from school teachers that I know.

Money doesn't hurt education in and of itself; however, throwing money at a problem without understanding the problem has a very low probability of success.
I was speaking with an acquaintance last night (a typical MA liberal), and she said that one of the larger, local districts had finished dead last at the HS level recently. The program that they had adopted recently involved encouraging small kids (ages 2-4) to learn to read at a very early age, and that this was actually showing some promise. Unfortunately, it's already too late to help those HS kids; no amount of money is going to make up for what they misses 12-14 years ago.
I still think the primary indicator of success for kids is parental involvement, and no amount of taxes, legislation, or spending is going to dramatically affect that.

Cinco-X wrote:

I still think the primary indicator of success for kids is parental involvement, and no amount of taxes, legislation, or spending is going to dramatically affect that.

Indicator or cause?

ac wrote:

Yeah... it's a cultural issue not a resources issue.

DING! DING! DING! DING! DING! DING!

The politicians promised they would only have to appear at the dog and pony show hearings. They have done their time.

Everybody uses currency of one sort or another, almost always something that's considered scarce or rare, usually.

One of the nice things about the justice system is that you don't need Congress to vote on it. If you've got crimes, and you can get good evidence, you just need the will to prosecute.

But it's POLITICAL will, and as other posters have pointed out, those prosecutions have an inverse relationship with campaign donations and your ability to get sinecure after your term in office.

I smell some bad shit coming around. Portugal, Ecuador and Hungary being good canaries in the coal mine just by my superficial browsing of the Bloomberg in the mornings. Maybe others in the sovereign debt trade can suggest some other names to watch. IMO dollar drop this morning + bad employment probably means big equities plunge today as the carry traders unwind and the retail equities investors follow the pack for the regularly scheduled fleecing.

p.s. - Everything in Byzland is going well, hello everyone I haven't seen for a while.

Question is: Will this be like the last 2 recessions where there was a blip up and then lowwer UE, more like '81 double-dip. or something totally different. A permanent plateau at these levels is clearly not going to leave a functioning system, so that's out of the question.

Interesting... an account of what the real vampire squid does when it is threatened...
Vampire Squid Turns "Inside Out"

Rajesh wrote:

It's the new leading indicator anyway, right?

IFIFY

Educational expenditures give you the most "bang for the buck" when they are spent on K-6 education, because that is where the greatest amount of learning actually takes place. All the rest is simply specialized knowledge... except that in our system we force the kids to hang around the education system for another 4-6 years "getting ready for college" - a bloated higher educational system that's already accepting too many benchwarmers.

The answer is to do away with K-12 education. Redesign K-6 education (perhaps K-8) to pack in the maximum generalized skills -- literacy, basic science, critical thinking -- and then let the kids do O-levels or A-levels equivalents. From ages 14 to 18, everyone should either be prepping for college or learning a trade.

A permanent plateau at these levels is clearly not going to leave a functioning system, so that's out of the question.

That seems like a strange assertion to make a priori. The total employment fraction has certainly been lower in the past.

I believe real rate mortgages (RRM) may help to solve the problem. I know what I say seems too good to be true and you may not believe it, but before discarding it, please, check it.

Real rates are lower than Nominal rates, around 2%. This means home buyers can obtain mortgages at 3%/3,5%. Loan payments will increase according to inflation. This means initial loan payments are lower than present ones. They will be higher than present ones in 2020 if inflation grows at 2%. Lower initial loan payments have important consequences for the market. First, present borrowers can refinance, get a RRM and pay around 20% less than today. If the US mortgage market is around $11 Trillion, this means they will have around $150 billion in their pockets. If Marginal propensity to consume is around 3, US consumption can grow around $450 billion (+3.1% GDP). This action has no cost for taxpayers.

There are other long term benefits for the economy. You can see them at
The Real Rate Solution.

The Fake Recovery - Credit Writedowns
Older post, but many points still valid

.......With the preceding constraints in mind, we should remember that the first priority of elected officials in Washington is not necessarily to make the best long-term choices for the American people, but rather to get re-elected in order to have the opportunity to make those choices. It should be patently obvious that a downturn which began in December 2007 would be fatal to many politicians if allowed to continue well into 2010. This is why recovery of some sort must take place before that time – irrespective of whether it is sustainable........

Everybody uses currency of one sort or another, almost always something that's considered scarce or rare, usually.
.

Then we should establish a currency based on common sense and altruism. They're rare. Share your pot of stew with the tent next to you? You earn.

Alea | Scariest Chart EVER: Loss Severity, Subprime First-Lien

It's scary, but I'll let you judge if it is in fact the scariest

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

It's part and parcel to the authoritarianism that keeps the wheels of big government going!

It takes a village, right?

Cinco-X wrote:
It takes a village, right?
It takes a pillage

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

It takes a pillage

My Libertarian bro's are out in force today!

energycon - If the provisions of Obama's budget pass that woud eliminate the deduction of intangible drilling costs, what do you see as the impact on oil production and energy costs?

Treasury rates have to go up - Fundmastery Blog - MarketWatch

More chart porn......

I sure wouldn't want to be in a financially overburdened Big Smoke right now, which is most of them...

Greece and Europe | FX Solutions

By Joseph Trevisani, Published: 02/01/2010
“We are cooperating with those who have more serious problems”, said Joaquin Almunia European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner. “We are all in the same boat”. Truer words were never spoken.

Sovereign debt is not a Greek problem, (though it is the Greek problem); it is not a European Monetary Union (EMU) problem. The explosion of deficit spending and debt is a European Union problem.
my emphasis

ac wrote:

Then use correctional capital. Send many more people to jail for offenses such as lying to shareholders, embezzlement, predatory lending, fraud, and other financial crimes. Amazing how it affects the behavior of others.
Then the politicians will have nobody to contribute to their campaigns.

You think politicians will support their own prosecution?

"Both the level of claims, and the recent increase in the 4-week average, are concerning and suggest continued job losses." - CR

"The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 530,405 in the week ending Jan. 30, an increase of 28,234 from the previous week. There were 682,176 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009." - USDoL

150k fewer claims is unabashedly a green shoot. Still well above the sustainable level of 320-350k but improvement.

ISTM that FedGov is being setup for an exact replay of the 1930s. Signs of a recovery coming will trigger changes in policies that we all know have to come; fiscal restraint, ratcheting back extended benefits, raising taxes, ending QE, allowing interest rates to rise. I posit that any one, just one, of these in 2010 will precipitate another leg down. Worse, I suspect that several of these will be happening despite the administrations efforts. The trick then becomes one of choosing one's medicine. Kill employment? Kill housing values? Kill the middle class? Kill the dollar? Or kill the banks?

Why even bother with people like that!?

If they were worth anything, their country wouldn't be a ramshackle banana republic on the verge of collapse.

Why even bother with people like that!?

The poor woman was obviously trapped in eduspeak and was deluded. Vonbeck had a good opportunity to widen her horizons and speak emancipating truth to her.

How about that?

tickle me

I had a nice chat with my best tenant yesterday when she dropped off the rent check. She has a very loyal clientele and has been in business since the 70's so she knows how to ride out recessions, but even she was speaking gallows humor. Said her numbers for january 2010 were WORSE than january 2009.

Three words: 1981.

some investor guy wrote:

There are almost 15 million state and local govt employees in Dec 2009. Anybody want to guess how many there are at year end 2010?

Michigan continues turning paved roads to gravel

The County Road Association of Michigan said Tuesday that 35 miles were returned to gravel in 2009. Thirty-eight counties have combined to pulverize about 100 miles of pavement and lay down gravel in the past few years.

The main reason is because counties lack money to reconstruct or repave deteriorating roads.

A few communities in other states including Pennsylvania, Indiana and Vermont also have reverted a few miles to gravel.

Michigan road construction groups are seeking higher fuel taxes to generate more money for road and bridge repairs. The proposals have run into opposition from groups opposed to tax increases.

Outsider wrote:

Vonbeck had a good opportunity to widen her horizons and speak emancipating truth to her.

Most folks like that whom I have met are not strong on listening, especially if they have already decided that you're not going to be able to help then in their "status quest". That said, your heart is in the right place-

Cinco-X wrote:

Change: Down 119.18 (1.16%)

Volume on the DOW looks pretty healthy too; 35 million in the first 25 minutes.

Said her numbers for january 2010 were WORSE than january 2009.

January 2010 fell off a cliff where I am.

I am expecting this to show in the numbers by the end of the quarter.

The same thing happened in December, 2007.

October 22, 1931

At a mass meeting last night at South High an attempt was made to reopen the city banks by urging depositors to buy new stock with 25% of their deposits and to agree to let the balance remain for an agreed period of 1-3 years.

greenchutes wrote:

It's almost as if the market is starting to notice the obliterated, underemployed consumer

... that is going to have to start actually paying money for housing soon. Lots of freed up cash right now for the class of people that like to consume a bunch of crap since they arent paying their mortgages.

Is that "goldbrick" or "gold brick"?

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

Banana republics are also marked by a near-total absence of a meaningful middle / professional class.

Yup-

Mike in Long Island wrote:

It takes a teachers union to bankrupt the village...

Damn! Healthy load of cynicism from the commentariat today;)

There are some funny versions as to the origin of that phrase - the pasha doing a few dirty tricks to collect his treasure at taxtime and whatnot.

some investor guy wrote:

While I'm sure there is some selection bias, one of the interesting points in some of the literature is how much many large districts have loaded up with administrators. I hear similar complaints from school teachers that I know.

The teachers I know would agree with that statement. The administrators are more and more often being give outrageous salaries, half of the time incompetent, and have long contracts with golden parachutes in other words, just like many of the bankers bleeding us dry.

I know that in my dept at least 1 if not 2 admin FTEs are at stake. I've been told off the record I'm not one of them.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Worse, I suspect that several of these will be happening despite the administrations efforts. The trick then becomes one of choosing one's medicine. Kill employment? Kill housing values? Kill the middle class? Kill the dollar? Or kill the banks?

Right words, wrong punctuation. For this Administration, you'll need exclamation points. Oh, and you missed a couple words:

"Kill employment! Kill housing values! Kill the middle class! Kill the dollar! Just don't kill the banks!"

greenchutes wrote:

had quite the revelation while in central america a dozen or so years ago, while pondering the glued broken glass at the top of a tall private wall...

Maybe I should buy into a reputable fence installation company.

The next pig

By Courtney Schlisserman

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Orders placed with U.S. factories increased more than anticipated in December, boosted by investment in business equipment that may help power the economy in coming months.

Bookings rose 1 percent, matching the revised gain in November and the fourth straight increase, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Excluding transportation, orders increased 1.2 percent

biochemist wrote:

The real world is harsh once you get paroled

True. I "eased" my home schooled guy back into public school in time for middle school. I feel like he got the best of both worlds. (And, btw, even he gets accepted at Harvard, Georgetown, or Berkeley--we can' t afford it! Oh well!)

More European Sovereign Debt Woes

Mook wrote:

For this Administration, you'll need exclamation points. Oh, and you missed a couple words:
"Kill employment! Kill housing values! Kill the middle class! Kill the dollar! Just don't kill the banks!"

There's no slipping anything past the commentariat.

I'd say Greece, Spain and soon a few Baltics and Ireland have taken care of a strong dollar. King Copper is under $3 out for years. Oil $75. NatGas down despite decent drawdowns. There's a recession coming. Never mind we are already in a recession. There's no rule that says you can't have a recession before the previous recession is over.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Kill employment? Kill housing values? Kill the middle class? Kill the dollar? Or kill the banks?

I vote for killing house prices (not "housing values").

Bu the dollar will be killed instead.

The third brick wrote:

The outflow of physical metal from bank vaults is happening at a mind bending pace

I like my tin foil hat and much as the next CRer, but Jim Willie wrote in November that it was credible that Clinton and Rubin had turned all of the US owned gold bars into plated tungsten. Gold Market Breakdown

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

If the Unabankers on Wall*Street had no problems

I just watched The International and it looks more and more like a documentary.

If I have a daughter some day, I swear I am naming her Entropy...

Cinco,an interesting choice,those are classified as "any other weapon" if civilian purchased.Ideal for entry operations or maneuvering in a car,whoever specified these was serious,those gost ring sights are not cheap.Check out "scattergun technologies" for some nice tools.

Cinco X : "I was speaking with an acquaintance last night (a typical MA liberal), and she said that one of the larger, local districts had finished dead last at the HS level recently. The program that they had adopted recently involved encouraging small kids (ages 2-4) to learn to read at a very early age, and that this was actually showing some promise. Unfortunately, it's already too late to help those HS kids; no amount of money is going to make up for what they misses 12-14 years ago.
I still think the primary indicator of success for kids is parental involvement, and no amount of taxes, legislation, or spending is going to dramatically affect that."
My husband and I have been involved in public education for 40 years - there is NO substitute for parental concern/involvement. That is why the parochial schools usually outdo public ones - you have a self-selected population, highly concerned with their child's performance and responsive to input from the educators. Without that, you have a bunch of apathetic students who are more concerned with their social life than learning. Plus, a LOT of them have such dysfunctional home lives they would put Roseanne to shame. Learning does not take place under such conditions.