Treasury Releases new Guidance for HAMP
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 11:12am (285 comments)
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They ought to release new guidance for hemp.
Deep, deep:
Dilbert - Yahoo! News
"This suggests a surge of trial cancellations in February. "
An ugly side-effect of enforcing rules
From the NYTimes obit of Louis Auchincloss, R.I.P.:
Even near the end of his life, Mr. Auchincloss said the influence of his class had not waned. “I grew up in the 1920s and 1930s in a nouveau riche world, where money was spent wildly, and I’m still living in one!,” he told The Financial Times in 2007. “The private schools are all jammed with long waiting lists; the clubs — all the old clubs — are jammed with long waiting lists today; the harbors are clogged with yachts; there has never been a more material society than the one we live in today.”
“Where is this ‘vanished world’ they talk about?” he asked. “I don’t think the critics have looked out the window!”
HAMP unconstitutional anyway... at least using funds from TARP for it is...
What assets do we purchase with "incentive payments"... how is an "incentive payment" a guarantee on the asset value?
This program is so-named because it "HAMP"ers a real recovery in housing.
On Bernanke's re-confirmation today ... wasn't the stock market supposed to go up (or at least not go down) when this happened?
For the borrowers who have not made all of their payments, the directive requires the HAMP trial program to be canceled.
How many years ago was it that I said all efforts are directed at keeping borrowers paying? Nothing else matter except the velocity of money flowing through the bankers' hands.
Ford Halts Production of Vehicle in China - WSJ.com
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Funnier, funnier:
The official Dilbert website with Scott Adams' color comic strips, animation, mashups and more!
Oddly enough, with a loooooooooong MA, Nat Gas looks like an intact bull market.
There is current speculation amongst physicists about the existence of parallel universes. But apparently there is at least one social parallel universe in existence, and perhaps more than one. See the Auchincloss obit above.
Hunter got pigged...
"History is hard to know, because of all the hired bullshit,
but even without being sure of "history"
it seems entirely reasonable to think that every now and then
the energy of a whole generation comes to a head in a long fine flash,
for reasons that nobody really understands at the time
--- and which never explain, in retrospect, what actually happened."
Hunter S Thompson
This week, the opportunity was there, for that moment of recognition. For that turn in history that stops the spiral to hell. We were on the cusp of opportunity..for that long, fine flash of truth. One man could have turned the tide to save our future. Instead, he took the well trod, easy path.
greenchutes wrote:
That's what I love about TA......
"Don't like the signals? Just adjust the knobs until you do!"
Jack Reed (D, RI): 'now is not the time for change.'
No, either change the Senate or the Federal Reserve System.
You know, if the program employees really put their noses to the grindstone, and keep on making tweaks like this as they go ... there may actually come a time in the future when the overall cost of HAMP per successful mortgage modification falls below the average mortgage balance outstanding.
In other words, to the point where it won't have been cheaper to have used those funds to pay off the entire damn principal balance of every single qualifying borrower.
But we're not there yet, mind you. So keep plugging away, fellas!
I'm a big believer in ginormous MAs when it comes to commodities. It takes 500 week MAs to get a sense of the natural pull of monetary expansion, much like it takes a fair amount of elevation to clearly see the curvature of the earth.
So once the kabuki is over, will the markets oblige and bounce with a Bernanke confirmation?
I found it stunning when I heard that a number of servicers were just putting anyone who answered the phone into a trial program. So this change is very good - although it will hit Treasury's favorite metric ... it was a blunder to play up the number of trial mods - and push servicers to put people in those programs (unless they were doing it for the banks
)
I also like that they are going to get rid of the borrowers not making payments - finally. There are people in trials who answered the phone, never made a payment, and because of all the extensions - have been living rent / mortgage free for 7+ months. And who knows how long they were delinquent before that ...
best to all
energyecon wrote:
You peeked!
greenchutes wrote:
How does crude look from the same orbital perspective?
I've heard "Bernanke", "Bernacke", "Bernonkee", "Bernocke".
Yet to hear Berdonkey or Bermonkee.
One man could have turned the tide to save our future. Instead, he took the well trod, easy path.
Maybe, maybe not. but human beings are not singular and independent. If one fails, it is the failure of many, and not only now but before.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
But you have to say it like Peter Sellers in one of the Pink Panther movies...
"Buy on the rumor, sell on the nitwit's confirmation." Isn't that how the old saw goes?
Something like that.
energyecon wrote:
According to Jesse ... yes.
Jesse's Café Américain: Watch for a US Market Move LIkely Before the Close
BB probably has the votes. But what Sen. Kyl was saying is interesting. He mentioned if BB doesn't get reappointed then Obama would choose a Fed Chief who would end up funding Obama's programs...so if this is the case...then the Fed must NOT be 'independent' to political influence...if this is the perception...at least from kyl who is actually voting for BB even with the problems caused by BB so that Obama won't put someone else in as Fed chief who may not be so 'independent'...interesting observation...
None of this changes the fact that these servicers don't WANT to do these mods and there is nothing that says they have to. The only thing I saw that piqued my interest was the requirement that they keep records of all contacts with homeowners. I wonder if this is because of all the complaints?
WTIC is quite similar - the 500 week MA is down around 52 and steadily rising. It definitely passed that test well a year ago.
merchants of fear wrote:
LOL that is sounding like one of noob's game theory headaches!
"Documentation be Provided Before Trial Modification Begins"
So I need to send in my Post It note pay stubs first? Forget it then.
Without much fanfare:
Senate Votes to Increase Federal Debt Limit by $1.9 Trillion - Bloomberg.com
I smell a poll; and side bets...
It's a bit cynical to think so, but Kyl could easily be giving lip service to cover up some kind of deal he's made.
The underlying/over-arching issue is that the aggregation of all programs meant to save home-value, collaterally homeowners, will continue to fail to stem the tsunami of foreclosures and continually depressed home sales. Unemployment is unemployment. Mal-allocation of economic resources, misaligned service to manufactoring jobs, lack of a manufactor-infrstructure policy for longterm economic security...fix that please.
Instead we're going to fire-up higher unemployment and higher-inflation, believing that we've saved the majority of home-values at the expense of 20% of the populations' eligible workforce--that is we've saved financial institutions (read middle-class asset and wage funneling redistribution institutions).
--bh
--bh
Boxer says she won't vote for B...maybe she rec'd my email
greenchutes wrote:
thanks gc
energyecon wrote:
YouTube - Minkey!
Amazing how strong the USD/EUR rally has been in light of this.
energyecon wrote:
Berminkee.
Or, as Dieter, "Touch my Berminkee..."
CK, here's an article I linked earlier today about lenders pursuing borrowers after foreclosures and short sales. I hope you will take a look at it.
Lenders Pursue Mortgage Payoffs Long After Homeowners Default - Bloomberg.com
The U.S. Senate voted to increase the federal debt limit by $1.9 trillion, to $14.3 trillion
Somewhat more than GDP?
kyl who is actually voting for BB even with the problems caused by BB so that Obama won't put someone else in as Fed chief who may not be so 'independent'...interesting observation...
Please explain to me any shred of evidence that Bernanke is "independent" from Washington. Its because he didn't pal up Paulson on TARP, right? Wait a sec... Its because he didn't push the bailout of AIG, right? Wait a sec... Its because he's hurt politicians with high interest rates, right? Wait a sec....
CalculatedRisk wrote:
This is the mortgage industry we're talking about here--anyone with any experience saying the word "no" retired long ago.
What if people just only bought houses they could F%$KING AFFORD??
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Now is the time on Shprockets when we dance! LOL - one of my sisters visited West Germany (was there when the wall came down) - she swore that was an accurate sendup of their TV...
What if people just only bought houses they could F%$KING AFFORD??
Not enough trailer parks.
"(unless they were doing it for the banks Tinfoil Hat )"
isn't that patently obvious?..after-all when you report out how many were put into the mod. program instead of successful ones it's not all that unreasonable to think that the banks were just playing the game to curry favor.
Ciao
MS
Thanks brianboise, I wonder if liz has seen that?
Boxer up for a new term? [HCN, or kudos]
edit: HCN
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Touch him, love him. OK, your narrative has become tiresome. Now is the time we raise rates and dance.
my pleasure, stockcharts does super-long charts fairly easily.
Just click 'default' on the top left and change settings to 'weekly'. The MAs go out to 500 weeks. Wish they went longer, just out of curiosity, especially with gold in terms of slowly digesting the '80-'02 bear.
Doofus wrote:
Buyers are doing that, with the understanding that they will be able to afford the home (only) once the lender and the taxpayers have funded a principal reduction.
see greece, spain, ireland under urban dictionary-big trouble little europe...
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
I think Fiorina is running for her seat. Remember Curly?
Oddly I believe Feinstein was against... perhaps Boxer trusts that judgement? I'm not sure how much Senators trust each other's judgement. For instance, I believe Bunning has some experience in the financial industry.
CR - "number of servicers" = Citi primarily.
If you remember the early days of HAMP, Treasury was hounding certain companies like JPM to get more people into HAMP, while others like those sycophants at Citi were crowing about how many trials they had started.
The main difference, of course, was that JPM was asking for docs up front, while Citi just threw anyone in the program.
As for the changes, maybe Treasury is wising up to what I have been saying all along - that HAMP is actually contributing to the strategic default issue? A smart borrower who knew how to play the system could easily get 24 months free rent out of it. Many were 9-12 months delinquent before HAMP even started, then as you say they sign a couple docs and are protected for another 9 months, then it takes another 6 months to boot them out.
Though I am sure they will find a way to mess this up even more before it is done. They really need to start putting the hammer down on the short sale initiatives, force banks to set a price at which they will accept a short sale, instead of forcing the sellers and buyers to guess, then get a tentative approval, then get that approval pulled.
I guess Ferrari doesn't want my input on road cars any longer.....
YouTube - Michael Schumacher New Mercedes Benz SLS AMG Commercial *HQ*
Ciao
MS
CK, I thought about LL, too, when reading that article. I will try to remember to bring it to her attention, but if she pops up on the board later today and I am absent, would you kindly let her know? (Thanks.)
Boxer and Feingold look to be in tougher races than expected this fall.
I'd be curious the correlation of "No" votes on Bernanke and those Senators running for re-election. Could be high, as it was with TARP.
Vote in my Poll
You too CR
iceman,
No the Fed & BB are partial as we say...to their member banks...the Fed is 'independent' from detailed reviews...as Sen. Bunning found out when he went down to the Fed himself and couldn't get any details...apparently earlier Bunning was handed a folder of Fed releases from their website to answer all his questions about Fed actions...especially concerning AIG...
You know what's too late? What's too late is to do something about the expansion of the federal government and its concentration of bureaucratic and administrative heft. The states have been cut off at the knees.
energyecon wrote:
Kyl is just covering his ass with his whackjob teabag "base". Bernanke is a Republican, a Bush appointee, and executed the bailout before Obama came in...the GOP is most certainly in favor of keeping him, but they're in a bit of a box - just as with the bank tax - they can't maintain their populist fig leaf if they openly back their policies...Kyl is just feinting to blame it on Obama and give himself cover for doing what he would do anyway: "Obama made me do it"
I don't know, as you all know I do a lot of reading, and I think this leg down is being set up of a big Hyper inflationary period coming. I laugh when I read such things as ( good I am all cash finally I will start to get some interest on it ) Ya your in trouble. Not saying cash is not good to have it is, but I just do not believe for one moment that Deflation is the game of the day.
This is why I have my doubt............
Gold 'still popular with billionaires' > Gold News > World Gold Council, the information resource for gold, investment, jewellery, science and technology, historical and culture
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
They really need to start putting the bulldozer down...
the GOP is most certainly in favor of keeping him,
Neither party is helpful. What's left - Vegetarians?
Entirely agree. went through two short-sales a year and half ago, and both went according to the script of tentative approval with approval pulled after 60 days. Rinse wash repeat with same property being put back onto the market, listed at a greater asking price than before. Short-sale means entirely encumbered property with multiple liens and no way will approval be granted without offering 20% above the wish-fantasy price.
--bh
My sister just got divorced and her income is cut in half. B of A negotiated a new rate after she sent all of the requested paperwork. She will be able to afford that new payment. She has been waiting for the approval for 5 months.
So far she is making the full payments and she can continue this until her savings is exhausted. She is way too underwater to sell. There is no way to set a fire under these people.
SNAFU wrote:
Perfect! She's failed in business (trashed Lucent, then HP) and now she's ready to bring her disaster act to the Senate!
Yes, she is making noises...has been since she did some stumping for McCain...so is Meg Whitman (eBay)...same kind of background, but successful (or smart enough to bail when the party was over - see Jack Welch).
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
ghostface, I hope you have been sending letters to Treasury to this effect. I myself have sent at least 2 within the past 10 days or so, the most recent one to Michael Barr, which person is now pushing for taxpayer-funded principal reductions. (You are right - - those guys are acting idiotically.)
iceman wrote:
Feinstein voting 'Yes' ; reckon she is not up in 2010.
Very good review why not to reappoint and to reconsider coming 'yes' votes...Sen. Jim DeMint (R-South Carolina)
better short sale rules and BK cramdowns are all we need.
Free taxpayer funded principal reductions could possibly spell the end of the country.
iceman wrote:
Boxer and Feingold look to be in tougher races than expected this fall.
Feinstein voting 'Yes' ; reckon she is not up in 2010.
Referring to Russ Feingold out of Wisconsin ... he's voting no -- running this fall.
DeMint is up, Nay. HCN.
Sanders is not up, Nay. Hurray.
Would hate to lose Feingold. He would vote Nay regardless, I believe.
Comrade Scott wrote:
In meetings at Ebay or PayPal, meetings attended by MW, she dwarfed all the men in the roof, literally! She bailed when it looked very unlikely that Ebay stock will do better any time soon and there was the matter of that acquisition!
Was with HP before and right after Fiorina. Complete disaster. Organizational chaos, brain-drain, cut the perfectly good limbs (think quality DEC/Compaq engineers replaced by 3rd world cogs without creativity or QA) and saved the gangrenous ones (think about the managment structure: at the time, every manager reported to at least 3-6 other higher level managers and so on up the chain of tentacled-command). Text-book of how not to run an organization.
--bh
Sanders worked up big time. 'You can take the boy out of Brooklyn...'
Comrade Scott,
Yeah...good point...politicians covering their behinds...but the Fed can't be independent...we know that now with certainty...
Sanders is saying the Fed should lower interest rates on credit cards...and enable low interest loans to small businesses...which would stimulate jobs...it's good to mention jobs once in a while since stable employment is a mandate of the Fed...
CR, you make it sound that now that there'll be "guidance" in place about dropping folks from the program, the freeloaders will be out on the street by Friday next. Hardly!
I don't fully agree with Rob Dawg. The prime directive isn't to keep borrowers paying (though that's a nice fringe benefit). It's to delay recognizing the loan losses. As much as possible, for as long as possible.
HAMP was only a way to mark bad loans with a status other than 'non-performing'. If they can't do it that way, they'll find another way to do it. Whether or not it involves actually foreclosing is IMO irrelevant to them at this point.
Yes, bernanke and the fed are focused on cash flow only. They can't deal with the accumulated balance sheet problems.
booooyaaaahahahhahahahah
Afganistan not going so well. What's the word? Quagmire?
U.S. intelligence briefing: Taliban increasingly effective - CNN.com
Takeaways:
none of this matters....the name of the game is still "prop the equity market" - we had our little scare as the bankers reasserted their privilege and got their boys to keep a hold of power. Now let's get back on with the show...Kermit arrives in 1 hr. Get busy!
blackhat wrote:
Heard that from a friend in customer support, at HP for 13 years now.
Here's a good example of that. A blog post from an RE agent selling a condo (which sold for 699k this month) in Santa Monica. This post is from August '09 Interesting...
Santa Monica Distress Monitor: Advertise Your Rollback *Update 1*
This property is a short sale (see private remarks in MLS). We had to start at $799,000 to show the banks that we gave it a shot at a value, where a short sale would not be needed. Each price reduction and time on market continues to help us make a case to the lenders that we have done everything necessary to make them as much money back as possible. We finally have a few offers, after the reduction to $699,000. Counters are going out tomorrow. Whomever wins the bid, I can now stand strong against the bank to approve the short sale and accepted price, as this may be their last shot to sell the property. The second will get wiped out here AND the first will need to share the pain. No one is winning here, but with this scenario it was the strategy we needed document. You would not believe how naïve the banks are when it comes to approving these short sales. Again, we needed to prove to the banks that the market has shifted, even though they will tell us the property is worth more...now I feel we have taken that discussion off the table. If they do not accept the winning bid, then I wish the banks good luck... Time is money!
He left out the part about how the US is giving cash to fighters, hoping they won't shoot up our supply lines. "Money as a weapons system"
"I don't fully agree with Rob Dawg. The prime directive isn't to keep borrowers paying (though that's a nice fringe benefit). It's to delay recognizing the loan losses. As much as possible, for as long as possible."
Exactly, as long as borrowers are in HAMP, the banks can apply their magical cure rate assumptions to these borrowers and assume 50% will "cure", and only reserve for half the losses they will face.
Once they are in foreclosure they have to take the hit.
From one JD to another, rest in peace Holden Caulfield...
JBR wrote:
So this was a commission free sale? I think we know who is winning. FIRE!
Afganistan is part of a larger 'pre-emptive defensive' strategy in the Middle East...which includes positioning for Iran & Pakistan...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Favorite book RIP
from UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
I think mook hit it on the head.
HAMP allows an alternate-accounting bucket where the chum goes so we don't have to mark-to-market the going rate for chum. The goal will be to permanently recategorize the otherwise-losses into the chum-bucket.
Cash-flow verses solvency.
-bh
Salinger was still alive?!?!?!?!?
LOL. Oh, I'm sure the agent got his vig. And whoever paid 649k (not 699k as I originally posted...oops) for an apartment is batsh*t crazy IMHO, but it illustrates the process. And the stupidity of the bank.
whoa...thats a bump
Sen Sessions (R-Alabama), Judiciary Comm. Ranking Member...'not a jobs creating package' and BB supported it...this mess shouldn't be rewarded...so another 'no'...anyone counting...
Interesting study by the University of Florida and Univ of Alabama which found car dependent communities have statistically higher rates of foreclosure than communities with multiple transportation options. Drivable “sub-urban” communities have suffered the worst price declines. Walkable urban households spend 9% of income on transportation, sub-urban 25%. A 16% difference.
NRDC: Reducing Foreclosures and Environmental Impacts through Location-Efficient Neighborhood Design
Picturing Hope on TeeVee a ad modeled after William Shatner PriceLine ads...
"Health Care Negotiator"
The folks voting no on Bernanke are proud to do so. The folks voting yes are hoping their constituents won't notice.
So I'm expecting an increase in the opportunity to drill offshore in the USA. (Might have been mentioned in the SOTU?)
It's a no-brainer from the perspective of the presidential administration, and they have huge leverage over states because of budget deficits that are required to balance biannually or simply because they have run out of the ability to borrow and dance around the accounting. Arnold has probably broached the issue himself in CA.
It would decrease the trade deficit, without any backlash under the WTO
Would boost investment and employment domestically
They probably figure it will do a good job of attracting more swing voters towards them than would leave them
Would certainly bring in the donation money
$75B program with 66,000 'Permanent' modifications so far.
That comes to $1,136,000 per 'Permanent' modification.
The final cost per permanent modification will not be known for many years since the final tally will have to exclude modifications that eventually default. But now that HAMP is moving to lower the requirements of what is classified as 'Permanent' the default rate will surely result rise.
Rumors of his existence were greatly exaggerated
iceman wrote:
I'm stuck in meetings today so I can't watch. What are we at here, still over 60?
Whoa, someone said something that just goosed the market up.
CRM, I learned long ago not to doubt you. That power is unbelievable. Too bad it's the death star.
Watch Bernanke Debate Live | zero hedge
Per Dow Jones:
* Voting “Yes”: 53 (38 Democrats, 14 Republicans, 1 Independent)
* Voting “No”: 20 (5 Democrats, 14 Republicans, 1 Independent)
* Officially Undecided: 21 (11 Democrats, 10 Republicans)
* Unknown: 7 (3 Democrats, 4 Republicans)
Per Bloomberg:
* Voting “Yes”: 51 (36 Democrats, 14 Republicans, 1 Independent)
* Voting “No”: 22 (6 Democrats, 15 Republicans, 1 Independent)
* Unknown/Undecided: 27 (16 Democrats, 11 Republicans)
Sen Brownback - A housing bubble...now a huge govt. bubble blown up by the Fed...
The bubble economy or is it the bust economy?
All of the speakers are pretty much no votes lately (Richard Shelby currently explaining his no vote) ... but all these are known 'no' votes. At least 53 senators are known 'yes' votes vs 20 known 'no' votes.
Thank you, RATM and iceman, you're both gentlemen and scholars.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
IIRC some seismic was proposed or authorized...
did Dodd just say that if bernanke is not confirmed a banker said to tell him soon as possible so he could avoid stock sell off?
I would support domestic offshore drilling but from the perspective of the left we've gotten from this president:
-banker bailout
-Afghanistan escalation
-probable increased oil drilling in continental shelf
Could've elected Cheney and saved a lot of talk
"Once they are in foreclosure they have to take the hit. "
Not necessarily as it still requires a notice of disclosure to be registered.....they can put that off forever.
Credit-
Yes he did...he's such a toad..but I think he's just paraphrasing a comment made by Buffet earlier in the week.
Ciao
MS
JBR wrote:
I love the comments about the Realtor's honesty, apparently they have not read or seen Jim the Realtor.
I think the price cuts are pretty rapid relative to what most banks and owners are doing. In less than 2 months they cut the price 100k, how many other individual sellers are acting that aggressively?
slw and cenx were ramping nicely last 40 mins...
rosethorn wrote:
Due to personal experience, Cheny is for gay marriage. Obama isn't.
Dodd looks angry and scared. More fear mongering to hope he gets the votes...
Bah, I can't open the streaming CSPAN feed on this crappy hotel connection...endless buffering.
Oh well, I'll assume you nice folks will keep me informed
RATM wrote:
Think The International...
My impression of the whole off shore drilling thing is cost effectiveness ... when the price gets high enough, they will drill ... porpoises and mermaids be damned.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
I sent her one, too... but from what I can tell, it's still all kabuki. Saw an article from the weekend where Senate leadership would give senators up for election this year a free pass to vote against Bernanke -- as long as they don't vote against cloture. If BB voted against cloture, too, it might means something. But it might still be another kabuki move... I have no reason to trust anyone up there who's going along with the party line -- either one.
It looks as if many people aren't don't see the potential for change in the iPad, so here's a sneak peak:
iPad and the Education Revoloution
Lance is In
I may have to go this year...all 3 weeks
Jonathan wrote:
Our forces can be supported indefinitely by a constant supply of unemployed youth and BB's printing presses. I think we have the upper hand
This is west L.A. we're talking about.
There are no honest realtors here. 
Here? None. See previous comment re: L.A.
shill wrote:
EEV's been having a rough day, can't even break 0.4% up, when the market is down 0.8.
But I'm not complaining, I made a bunch when it was up 4% while the market was flat. Maybe they'll rectify the situation overnight.
We really need something like MLB's GameDay Web app for when the US Congress votes.
......what this REALLY suggests, is, further evidence that every program initiated by this Administration, lacks even the most basic levels of preparation and systems procedures setup. It has gotten to be a total joke and embarrassment with every subsequent new program.
Bernanke cloture vote to take place at 3:20 et, reconfirmation vote to follow shortly thereafter.
But interestingly, it looks like the reconfirmation vote, won't occur until after the market closes. LOL. The Senate doesn't want to see how full market trading would react to their vote.
NG I was thinking about jumping in on EEV......not sure yet.
fxp is interesting ....if china had a minor correction already at 10% will we follow it up for a little bit with this news push...
And now for something different...........
IGrow: Walmart of weed opens in Oakland
There's a waterfall with my name on it, and a bit of a hike to get to it, see you later alligators...
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
shill wrote:
I've been in for over a week; it tracks the index if you relax your expectations for the word 'track'.
It's even today, when it should be up 1.5%, for example. Oh well, it's just for fun
I'm sure they just looked on the wrong shelf BSR. I'm sure they'll do better for GD3.
Great attitude....likewise, not really in it to make a Vegas killing, I just like making moves....and yes what little profit there is, is always nice indeed.
it's not an accident, sorry to say. These things are built broken by design. It's to obscure the true nature of why they exist. It's all about extend and pretend.
If Bernankrupt wins fuggitt I'm going to Vegas.
[pre-planned, that was a bluff]
blackhat wrote:
Why am I not surprised...
This was readily apparent from the outside - to those of us who were users/consumers of PA-RISC/HPUX and Alpha/Tru64 platforms - and the reason I said she was trashing the company. I learned nearly all my Ugrad chem on HP equipment - it really was the 'good stuff'...dunno how that division (scientific instrumentation) fared...
I like these Metal prices, but if one looks at the retail end, nothing has come down as far as spot prices. On APMEX for instance you are still paying a little over $18 for bars and rounds. Of course Eagles are in the $20 plus range still. So that tells me the JPM hand is still strong in the PM market....not that I ever doubted it wasn't.
Requiring the servicer to get the IRS forms gives a good quick way to look at past income. In addition if the servicer wants to it can report discrepancies from the tax forms and the app to the IRS, and sic the IRS on the alt-a folks, who lied on their apps, since one way or the other a crime was committed. (Either Tax fraud or mortgage app fraud)
Was glad to see the servicers beginning to go after borrowers in recourse states. If you want to walk in a recourse state and are unemployed you can file bankruptcy. Get to keep 401ks and pensions and the clothes on your back and some furniture. I think there will be a strong push on by the bank industry to make all mortgages recourse nationwide. This will then add to the reasons not to buy, but to rent, as the article on yahoo pointed out, if married and the 10k standard deduction you have to have quite a mortgage/property tax bill to really get much tax benefit from the mortgage. (Actually should phase this out for new mortgages leaving only the property tax deduction).
could you elaborate on JPM's "methods", please?
It's Mish but still: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: State of Wisconsin Goes Insane With Leverage; Corporate Bond Mad Rush Is On
Key quote:
"Wilshire Consulting, which advises pension funds on investments, says leverage helps the funds meet their long-term return targets without relying too heavily on volatile stocks, or tying up their money for long stretches in private investments. Low interest rates make it impossible to meet those targets with simple bond investments."
These people must be living in caves.
Germany's parliament by economy minister Rainer Brüderle, who said there would be "no bail-outs" for struggling debtors and no move to a "European economic government".
"A few European nations are exhibiting dangerous weaknesses. That could have fatal consequences for all countries in the eurozone," he said. Despite the warning, he said each country must solve its own problems.
Funds flee Greece as Germany warns of "fatal" eurozone crisis - Telegraph
Comrade Scott wrote:
Was probably spun off with Agilent, don't know when that happened
HAMP-style programs have become the MO for the Obama/Timmy regime.
They wing out a headline grabbing program, designed to make the first 10 minutes of the evening news, long before it's ready.
Then, they ignore it for awhile, until sources like CR start to question how it's actually working.
Then, they scramble to figure out whether it will work or not. HAMP basically doesn't work. They're not making the program work better with these changes. They're just CYA, so the stats don't look so bad and the critics will go away.
It will be the same with the "Florida light rail" where Obama is working on tonight's first 10-minute headline. Except the idea is so ludicrous that nobody will probably ever ask questions about how it's actually working.
Maybe Mickey Mouse will.
well Boxer just lost my vote
boxer voted aye after no....amazing...
huh? Youre' kidding, right?
I can't post to tickerforum. Can someone please post asking KD why the bernanke confirmation is bad if the market is going up? Tia
I thought I heard that wrong somehow.
It is a known fact JPM holds the largest silver short that they inherited from BearS....google it.
Caseyresearch.com is a good start.
yes Boxer is going to regret that I think.
Ciao
MS
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:
IMO, Apple in general and Macs specifically are the Esperanto of computers.
What? Boxer voted FOR Bernanke? But I sent her an EMAIL!
rich wrote:
Interesting, perhaps, to all but Floridians. We've seen this one before. Several times.
after saying in speech she would vote no, just voted aye..
The market already bounced for the Bernanke renomination. Selloff to follow Yeah vote.
yes Boxer is going to regret that I think.
One can only hope
done deal methinks now...now what the reaction to that will be? who knows
Ciao
MS
We've grown to expect politicians to break their word, but ... not this fast.
I thought this was just the cloture vote to end debate...?
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Amazing - and I just got an email from her office suggesting otherwise. I am confused.
Do I not understand some Senate procedure here?
dollar is dropping...
INO Futures and Commodities - Currencies - U.S $ INDEX Mar 2010 (E) (NYBOT:DX.H10.E) Price Chart and Quote
and then its not....
Speed wrote:
A vote for Bernanke is a vote for free easy money. The only party line is the one at the trough.
I was going to vote against Boxer next time around anyway. Feinstein too. Now I have one more reason.
I believe you're correct...
I know. I did too. In fact I've sent her several though the years and she always dissapoints. I hope she enjoyed my last vote because it's the last one she'll ever get from me. I don't care if I have to vote republican, that biatch needs to feel the pain
I think so. Boxer can still vote no in the confirmation vote.
Love the way my mining positions recover toward the end...not making, but not losing either....but I have been tempered to sell.
Must restrain.
You are right.
ratm-
Now I'm confused too.....Is this not the actual vote as I thought they already decided to end cloture?
Ciao
MS
Quick sell SRS or hold!!!!
wheel due. thx
Double down!!!
MS wrote:
To my knowledge this is the cloture vote. The confirmation vote isn't happening 'til after the close... that's my understanding anyway.
I think so. Boxer can still vote no in the confirmation vote.
Big deal. To not vote no at this point in time is the same as voting yes for the man. He's got the 51 votes.
I read the HAMP directive and didn't see what years the form 4506T (request to release tax return data) was required to cover. By June 1 2009 returns should be available; prior to then only 2008 and earlier so the data will be stale.
Will servicers pick and choose which years best fit their needs?
77 to 23 to invoke cloture.
Speed wrote:
Boxer voted for cloture and will likely vote against reconfirmation. She will get the full court "I voted for after i voted against" treatment. I voted for Feinstein the first time because she ran on a platform of a constitutional balanced budget amendment. I can be such a noob.
MS wrote:
This is to override the hold that keeps it in committee, is my understanding. There were at least 2 Senators who put a hold on the nomination, for Audit the Fed and on disclosure of the AIG documents.
just heard it......I guess I stepped out at the wrong time.
Ciao
MS
Now a simple majority would confirm
Rob Dawg wrote:
I get it. Political jujitsu.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
So how's 1987 treating you?
When you are using abbreviations, please follow the standard convention for identifying cartoon characters:
Bb = Ben Bernanke
bb = Barbara Boxer
BB = Betty Boop
This would be more fun if all the Senators had women's clothes and whitecake makeup on, and traditional Japanese music was playing in the background.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
The rally doesn't seem to be over yet. Still too much strong breadth. Soon probably, but the oil arbitrage is still barely positive, people are reallocating more to stocks, which is fine because more loans are being repaid than issued. Maybe we're 1 month away
MrBeach wrote:
"I was for it before I was against it"... why does that sound familiar?
dum luk wrote:
Boo.
Bbb =Buela ballbricker
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:
Oh yeah ... and there's also that Mac user evangalist thing.
C'mon people. Did any of you really think there was a chance Bernanke wouldn't be confirmed? Need I remind you all that this Senate vote 3-1 to pass TARP despite calls running 99-1 against. There are only a handful of Senators who have been consistently opposed to giving the financial sector whatever they want (Shelby, Feingold, et. al.) The rest are bought, paid for, and controlled. Just enjoy the show and wait for the collapse.
And for crying out loud, get some
I am with you TCA I knew it was show boating....but look at it this way, we managed to get a few bargains the last few days. I hope some were buying.
MrBeach wrote:
That way 49 Senators get "I voted against Ben" stickers instead of just 39... The
gets what it wants from it's minions. Now, I'm sure negotiations have already occurred as to how my the (D) get, and how many the (R). Then the party leaders will probably decide which seats need the most protection.
The only people who don't want Ben, is the public and even TIME, does not care what they think.
TCA
But do you know?
I sold SLW at 17 and bought back in around 14.60. I will be hanging onto it for a while now.
TCA wrote:
Oh of course, but I wanted it to be a bit of a squeaker. With a simple majority it's no fun at all.
Well now that Ben is back at the helm, when does the Obama $30 billion start flowing to businesses?
TCA wrote:
Did you buy in a US/USD account ? In a Greek account, maybe.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
essentially gives you open source unix out of the box.....there's some value in that, and good design goes with it. YMMV
Feinstien hasn't received a vote from for a long time and will never get another vote from me. The shine on her faded around 2000 but her ties to big banking lost her my backing forever. I usually vote green or independant for her seat. Hell, half the time the republicans she runs against now are more intouch with Main st then her.
Commodities mostly falling into the close.
No love for Bernanke?
noob goldberg wrote:
I don't. If stocks drop precipitously, I would like there to be no confusion over why they are dropping. (If Ben were not confirmed, lots of fingers would point in that direction.)
shill wrote:
It isn't his money. It isn't even money at all. It was a paper loan. When the loan got repaid the theoretical pot of money went from -$30b to $0.
My bad RD...I forgot to /snark/
JP wrote:
But the banks now, are just going to continue to use Ben's money to keep playing games with the "market."
So Benji is going to be re-confirmed fairly easily. I guess a central banker who refuses to see the link between ultra-low interest rates a bubblicious asset prices is the right man for the times. Hopefully gold and silver keep coming off so I can back up the truck for the hyperinflation that's inevitable a few years down the road.
Doesn't bother me. It will work until it doesn't.
64 votes yes, $100bn votes no.
True. I keep thinging my cynicism is misplaced. But then I slam into the harsh brick wall of realism at 95 mph and I find out my judgement is correct, a downer but correct.
Some political backdrop for comments I missed:
Feingold down to an undeclared challenger in his re-election bid in new poll out today. He has to vote no or he's screwed.
Boxer is drawing under 50% in polls and a new entrant(Tom Campbell) has jumped ahead of Fiorina and DeVore in the GOP primary race. IMO, Campbell presents a bigger threat to Boxer than the rest of the GOP field because he's a social moderate running on a fiscal platform. Exactly the type of politician I can see actually beating Boxer. Expect to see the CA GOP frantically attempt to commit suicide by pushing the failed businesswoman or the social conservative guy instead.
“Bernanke has given up almost all the independence the Fed ever had, because he has been engaged in fiscal policy,” Professor Meltzer said. “Can you think of another central bank in the developed world that has half its balance sheet in mortgages? Would Paul Volcker have done that? Not on your life.”
Microsoft Q2 revenue $19 bln vs $16.63 bln
Amazon Q4 revenue $9.52 bln vs $6.7 bln
Oxtail wrote:
I had given up on Campbell running. It would be nice to see him get elected, he makes more sense to me than any other Cali pol.
Most of those facilities are closing by Feb 1.
FRB: Commercial Paper Rates and Outstandings
note how AA financial commercial paper superseded AA non-financial commercial paper in recent times
Big Softie Goes Limp
Micro? Soft? Needs
4 hours before business activity. You will notice it picking up
Final vote underway...
70-30 Nomination confirmed.
Amazon come down with a case of Terminal Jungle Fever
merchants of fear wrote:
Yeah...
Who was it on this board who gave up on shorting AMZN when it hit $140?
64 votes yes, $100bn votes no.
ZIRPity doo dah, ZIRPity aye,
My oh my what a wonderful day
Plenty of leverage coming my way,
ZIRPity doo dah, ZIRPity aye,
Much Ado About Nothing : a comedy in five acts.
Oxtail
I have been short since 95. I wish it had been me
30 'no' votes was surprising maybe...
with 33 running this year?
I note 33 senators (+/-) are up for reelection every couple of years.
Edit: shakes fist at fast-typing energyecon
"Hey! Ben Bernanke! You just won Senate reconfirmation. What are you going to do now?"
"Me? I'm going on an expense paid trip on the QE2!"
edit: [crickets] Man, tough crowd.
sm_landlord wrote:
I could live with Campbell. I wrote Boxer that. He's no wacko, and the end product of the sausage factory wouldn't get noticeably worse.
So now that BB's in...we were told the economy wasn't gonna tank...so remember the 70 who wanted to avoid an economic slide by reappointing BB...when the RE/CRE disaster continues to unwind...as it must...like a law of gravity...
RATM wrote:
70-30 Nomination confirmed
:Crying:
I just really don't get this...I really don't. I understand the populist anger directed at TPTB, but seriously: what alternative do you folks feel would have been appropriate? Letting the commercial paper market vaporize? Letting all of the investment banks blow up? They would have quickly been replaced, likely by foreign (Asian) banks - HSBC leaps to mind...do you really feel that would be a better outcome? Is 30% unemployment better?
Bernanke has faults and flaws...but I think he's done us a service utlimately...Geithner too. What alternative to TARP and MBS purchases do you perceive/propose?
you mean like this?
Stock Futures on Bloomberg
Amazonecdote:
I listed a Apple Mouse on Amazon for $20, around lunchtime. It sold within 60 minutes.
It is beyond amazing for selling reasonably mainstream stuff. Amazon just made a couple of bucks for a marginal cost of zero, and I have a mouse to mail to someone, which Amazon did not have to touch!
There was heavy selling going into the close today...
This might get the point across better: INO Futures and Commodities - Indexes - S&P 500 INDEX (E-MINI) Mar 2010 (E) (CME:ES.H10.E) Price Chart and Quote
rich wrote:
For Bernanke, Ben Shalom I suggest B-bs.
Conventional wisdom says if we get the GDP numbers that analysts expect, market should be up big tomorrow. I'm starting to think maybe tomorrow might not be all
...
Comrade Scott wrote:
Since you "really don't get this", I won't try to explain it, but whatever line of thinking got you to this point makes me doubt humanity.
Comrade Scott,
But the kicking the can down the road makes the systemic risk bubble debt balloon grow larger creating more systemic risk, aggregate risk, and contagion risk plus currency crisis risk...the bigger the serial bubble cycle gets the bigger 'The Great Reckoning' will get as many analysts have noted...
If we lose some of the TBTF 'investment banks' who bet both sides and get 'special treatment' as a 'systemic risk' special interest...this would be painful because OF ALL THE INTERLINKS and *network risk'...
But allowing zombie companies hoarding capital to be propped up really hasn't worked for Japan for example that has crushing debt and 'financial crisis' risk after all the stimulus trying to defeat deflationary forces...
Somebody got lost on their way to dkos.
Oxtail wrote:
Watch the revisions. Carefully.
For cloture:
U.S. Senate: Legislation & Records Home > Votes > Roll Call Vote
No votes: Begich (D-AK)
Brownback (R-KS)
Bunning (R-KY)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Ensign (R-NV)
Feingold (D-WI)
Grassley (R-IA)
Hutchison (R-TX)
Inhofe (R-OK)
McCain (R-AZ)
Merkley (D-OR)
Risch (R-ID)
Roberts (R-KS)
Sanders (I-VT)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL)
Specter (D-PA)
Thune (R-SD)
Vitter (R-LA)
Wicker (R-MS)
Comrade Scott,
It's another huge 'moral hazard' problem continuing to prop up Player Investment banks that are too Networked To Fail and get special favors...while the consumer economy is failing...
Comrade Scott wrote:
How does confirming Bernanke prevent that? In my view, the best he can do is delay it, or send us into a decades long economic malaise. Far better to let the ponzi crash and use the resources to stimulate as rapid a recovery as possible. Why push this debt off on our kids?
Oxtail - which of these votes yes to cloture?
[never mind. pointless question.]
merchants of fear wrote:
I think we can manage this without driving the bus off the cliff...I think it's possible to disentangle them without sinking the whole. I'm not a nihilist and I don't think you need to use round up or scorched earth to fix the garden.
No, indeed, it hasn't and I don't believe we ought to prop them up indefinitely either. I think disentangling and allowing some TARP payback, as well as forcing the junk back out through the TALF needs to happen. I just don't believe we have to drive it off the cliff.
I don't like the bailouts, just like I don't like stickups - what the banksters did to us - but I'd rather pay than get shot (what Bernanke did).
Comrade Scott wrote:
The Doomsters have nothing to offer except impotent rage and wet dreams of The Road becoming reality
Those were the No votes. Everyone else voted Yes to cloture.
Roll call for actual nomination won't be for a little bit.
McCain is trying to fend off a potentially nasty primary battle with blowhard ex-Representative J.D. Hayworth. He could not afford to give him any more ammo.
Our other lunatic Senator (Kyl) voted Aye, of course.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:
That is about what other groups have to offer outside of the status quo. If you are on the other side of the 10% UE3 divide, "The Road" is becoming reality.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:
But you anti-Doomsters can print money no problem, right?
WestSac_grrl wrote:
Maybe Slumdog should have stuck with his call. I am a lumpen.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:
Au contraire. There have been several viable suggestions. Personally I favor forming a B of the US and rescinding TBTF. there's also the wiping out of the GSE shares and impairing the bondholders to a sustainable level and then implementing mark to market on RE backed loans.
Don't mistake the fun people here have with
for their actual perspectives.
Comrade Scott wrote:
They would have quickly been replaced by their own pre-privatized selves.
On C-SPAN2...
Dark market activity policies have brought us to this point...credit default swaps have destabilized America...more and more business bankruptcies are coming...another bubble is forming..regulatory reforn needed...derivatives need to be regulated with criminal penalties for abuse...separate the risk of dark market activities from the taxpayers. -Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) (Not a Republican)
Jonathan wrote:
Now you are going to collect and report sales tax, rght?
RATM wrote:
I'm just busy playing defense where I can and going on offense where opportunity presents itself. Something about Schumpeter and creative destruction.
Where's the Bernanke Victory thread?
37 are up 11 are retiring
United States Senate elections, 2010 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Oxtail wrote:
Mark! Hot dog, he just got elected - that is promising - former mayor of Anchorage, small businessman (and son of Congressman Nick Begich, who disappeared in a small plane crash along with Hale Boggs in the early '70's)
Rob Dawg wrote:
+1
Oxtail wrote:
I don't see Boxer on that list despite her "opposition." I'm so sick of this stuff.
TCA wrote:
A majority of voters in Arizona elected a lunatic to the US Senate? What does that say about most of the adults in Arizona?
(I couldn't help myself..maybe they can't either.)
Oxtail wrote:
Thanks. Every few days I ask something truly stupid.
'Scott,
Actually 'scorched earth' and 'driving off the cliff' is where we are headed with unsustainable debt, currency crisi contagion, and expectations of default...the bigger the debt bubble gets...the more questions and 'expectations' that repayment of debt & interest is even possible...
Alexai,
You think giant bubbles work?
Alexei...sorry.
California teachers pension fund faces shortfall | Money & Company | Los Angeles Times
"The pension fund, which until recently said it needs an average annual return of 8% to keep up with retirees, instead would have to get returns of over 20% a year."
Scott,
HSBC or GS? Oh leave GS in place doing their thing.
Scott,
So are you saying not having BB is a 'systemic risk'? That is too much Power then. Right, Alexei?
Leaving aside whether the solutions are sustainable, or whether Bernanke understands what is happening, or whomever's responsibility and authority it was to act
The chosen actions represent discontinuities. Rewarding behaviour that normally is discouraged, the moral hazard bit. Even if it's given that these institutions could not be left to a closure by market forces, it was still a poor choice of action.
Separate the equity from the function.
function: The employees, equipment, intellectual property, brand, buildings, etc
equity: pension funds, counterparties, 401k plans, depositors, domestic/foreign
If you must, preserve the function. Recapitalize, schedule an IPO in 5 years. Require that organizational deficiencies that led to failure are corrected, reports to be published and will have a bearing on IPO valuation.
As for the equity side. Rank them and give them a share of the IPO in the amount of their non-cash contributions to equity. Would cause further failures, but you could run a few iterations beforehand and just process them all at once. As for investors, they ought to bear the consequences of their choices just like people who bought $1mn condos in a bad part of town to flip. Realistically, there will be those who cannot afford those losses. So deal with retirees with inadequate savings directly. By doing so, you spend less money for the same effect
The risk factor in this proposal is that the government would take so much on to their balance sheet, there would be fears of yield spikes and downgrades. They would just be fears though. The only danger comes from agents who are powerful, and try to bully you into providing unwarranted handouts. It's a gamble, but provide courage in leadership I think there would be enough trust in the bank to succeed. Anyone good enough to pull this off ought to be two steps ahead of any assassination attempts
They chose to leave it to the last minute. Even Paulson admits there was good reason to expect a meltdown in 2006 when he became Secretary of the Treasury. Not hours, years to prepare. With more information at hand then than we have as the public today.
It's not rocket science
merchants of fear wrote:
It's an American myth - right up there with the Horatio Alger Myth - that we've ever had a system that wasn't based on special favors and included gobs of moral hazard.
Agree there.
EHP,
I'll look at your analysis closer later...looks interesting...
Rob Dawg wrote:
I believe that is precisely what the FED has, in effect (the TALF and the commercial paper intervention) done. I think we can (and very much should) rescind to big to fail, but you don't have to blow the whole thing up to get there.
+1 All in good time...and I think that will happen. I think Bernanke is Libertarian/Austrian (Chicago school) enough to do it.