First American CoreLogic: House Prices Decline in November
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 01/22/2010 - 11:36am (297 comments)
in
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 23 members and 159 guests online.
Recent Recommendations
Define "next spring".
Just natural seasonal and weather-based fluctuation.
On average, we are expecting home prices to turn around next spring," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic. "While the share of REO sales are down, allowing price declines to moderate, there is concern moving forward with the levels of shadow inventory, negative equity, and the ability of modification programs to mitigate this risk."
Prices will go up - except where they go down due to .......
Ya think?
It is very funny when some guy says two different things in the same sentence.
Can't be. Sebastian assured me things are on the up swing.
Plus I checked both my Ouiji board and my magic 8 ball and both showed
josap wrote:
Sounds like a candidate for political office!
shill<
Step away from the
!
"On average, we are expecting home prices to turn around next spring," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic.
He continued, "You'll note the term 'next spring' is becoming somewhat meanigless, so we've instituted an office contest for a new term."
josap wrote:
Seems to be a lot of that going around these days, no? Its amusing and sad all at once.
It's Friday m8ty
Dammit Nemo!
"On average, we are expecting home prices to turn around next spring"
'next spring', that's when the Option ARM resets should starting creating lots of new inventory. Prices will get hammered.
When he says next spring is that spring 2010 or spring 2011?
"We will not monetize the debt"!
poic wrote:
What about the Wright Model B?
I note SRS is blowing it out today. +1.28%. Booyah!
"
January 22, 2010, 2:30 pm
Geithnerdaemmerung?
One surprise consequences of the debacle in Massachusetts is that Democrats are suddenly turning on the architects of the financial rescue. Bernanke’s reappointment doesn’t look so certain; Geithner and Summers are apparently on the outs.
"
Things are moving fast!
Geithnerdaemmerung? - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
I'm not completely sure what Fleming was saying except that prices are now falling again.
What a surprise. And in the face of a massive effort to support house prices.
We will see - prices are clearly closer to the bottom than the recent top - and it isn't an easy call on a national basis - like it was in 2005 - well, except to Greenspan and Bernanke
.
best to all
August 2, 1933
For Fair Economist:
Comment by Cinco-X from thread 'Hotel RevPAR off 16.7% in 2009'
Any one want to come over to tape and mud sheetrock tonight?
Good I for one am glad prices are dropping, I would like to move and buy another house, but with the current prices and taxes to boot, financially it does not make any sense. Show me 1993 prices then I will consider it.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Sure about that?
Jack Staub wrote:
Maybe we should start measuring things in "next spring" units, as when the left started using "Friedman Units" during the Iraq Invasion (they were always 6 months away)." Little Tommy" has some reality issues.
It is "the economy, stupid!" all over again.
Focusing on banks might have made Geithner feel good, but it is employment and real wages that matter to most Americans. He shouldn't be surprised by the anger.
Nice headline by Krugman!
best wishes
doping prices, eh shill?
Hahahaha! I fixed it............cut me some slack
One month is just noise. Anecdotally, though, there are more houses for sale in my middle-class OC neighborhood than I've ever noticed before, including our first ostentatious foreclosure. We've had several foreclosures, but they looked like any other vacant for-sale property. This one has a big BANK OWNED PROPERTY sign out front. And it's not selling. Not good for the other sellers.
Yeah - I think so. Of course I meant the 2006 top. Just looking at price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios suggest we are getting close.
best wishes
RE market, on its own, would be soft through March due to seasonal variations of both supply and demand, mainly the difference is the change in mix of supply according to how motivated they are to sell ... because anyone that can afford to waits until there is more activity in the market to find the best fit and get the best price
Enron Units are a nice simple number, 30 billion pieces of silver.
SNAFU wrote:
Ooh, would I have chosen to give up healthcare reform to get a better financial policy? Ouch, that's a tough one. Too bad Obama didn't go for both, because he'd probably have gotten them.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Yes, I had to look it up;
"
Dämmerung Dämmerung f , -, -en twilight
(=Abenddämmerung auch) dusk
(=Morgendämmerung auch) dawn
(=Halbdunkel) half-light
bei or mit Anbruch der Dämmerung when dusk began/begins to fall, when dawn began/begins to break
in der Dämmerung at dusk/dawn
"
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I could go with Enron Units," as they are in the spirit of the current accounting practices, and fantasy economic growth paradigm.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Which are worth more than 30 billion USD for some reason...
Hey, double-dip, nice to see ya. Thought you'd be back.
The big question to me is will CR buy more blue chart paint for the new dip?
Inquiring minds and I want to know.
Otherwise, a very good morning to you all from the far west.
C
Fair Economist wrote:
If they had a better financial policy, they could have afforded a better health care policy.
Mandatory 5 point deduction for not using an umlaut.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
First it is clear that the real genius in the Obama campaign was David Plouffe not the candidate. Secondly, how stupid does one have to be not to see 10% employment and Wall Street handing itself giant bonuses.
Do you mean health INSURANCE reform?
Research Recap » Blog Archive » Rapid Deterioration Leads Moody’s to Increase Loss Projections for Prime Jumbo RMBS
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I think its a combination of economy and social injustice comitted by rewarding those who caused pain.
I assume the FACL's LP HPI is not adjusted for inflation, so a level of 80 today would represent a fall below the healthy pricing of the 1990s
On a graph, "prices turning around" could be taken to mean going backwards to 1991.
HomeGnome wrote:
I meant health care. As it is, we won't even get reform, which isn't that bad, since many here think it was throwing more pork on the F.I.R.E.
Text of my email to one of my Senators today:
I urge you to reject Benjamin S. Bernanke's continuation as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Bernanke has overseen lax regulation of the industry his organization is supposed to oversee, and I believe has been a key enabler of the financial recklessness that has led to the current financial and economic distress that we are experiencing now.
Further, Bernanke has sought to hide the actions he and his subordinates have taken during this crisis from appropriate Congressional review. For these reasons and others, he is not fit to continue in his position.
Who do you like to go down on FFF?
Need a few days to decompress from the shock, and that means you gotta get rid of them today.
Are they coming up with new medical techniques?
Charles Kiting wrote:
Yea, I rented a four story house in Laguna Beach with a 180 degree view of the ocean for $1500 a month.
Lets go back!
I'll second that....what street Aghost? I use to dive for bugs in those waters..now you can use some kind of hoopnet....rediculous...
The market opens in few minutes. Anyone making bets whether
wins or 
makes a comeback?
It looks to me like the PPT is MIA.
Bernanke will most likely be confirmed, they don't have a safety candidate as far as I know
They're just waiting to do it on a Friday when no one notices, and after everyone gets the most value for their vote
They are concerned about re-election and all that, but they're confident that they can do both. We are in a post-TARP era of hubris after all
What caused the little uptick on the graph?
sm_landlord wrote:
Perhaps the PPT is waiting to hear about reconfirmation!
rosethorn wrote:
So what you're saying is "He's a team player"
When I was a Cadet, I used to think to myself "If THEY knew what @$$holes some of these folks were they'd never keep them here". Eventually, I realized that being and @$$hole was one of the things they were selecting FOR. If you're not a bit of an @$$, you could never send a battalion of men to certain death in order to accomplish the mission.
S&P going to breach 1100 today?
Treasurys slide before debt issuance next week - MarketWatch
Cinco-X wrote:
Well, the limitation on the health care policies were political, not economic. A number of cost-cutting measures couldn't make the political cut, as it were, notably the public option. If Obama had pushed for a decent financial policy instead of helping the banksters his homeymoon and political influence would have lasted long enough to pass health care reform.
P Krugman on Timmy's muttering on TeeVee
"I don’t know what’s really going on here, but Obama needs to find some officials who can talk about taking on Wall Street as if they mean it."
What did Geithner say? - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
edit: Sorry SNAFU. Didn't realize you had already posted the link.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Spent quit a bit of time underwater myself. Spear fished for a living for a while in Micronesia.
It was in Arch Beach Heights, up the hill. I believe it was Katella.
sm_landlord wrote:
They're just taking a breather
Fair Economist wrote:
---good one.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
That Massachusettes (sic) Mutiny caused them to be uncomfortable for all of 2 days then?
"What about the Wright Model B?"
There was a huge racket outside my house by one of them doing loop-d-loops above my roof. I closed the blinds and put in ear-plugs and the problem went away.
MrBeach wrote:
There it is.
REBear and real benefits with your wages or the ability to afford them. Idiots.
It was probably discussed earlier (so apologies) but this is yet another issue that is a core problem. Just couldn't let it pass without opening my fat trap about it.
High Court Decision May Bring ‘Cascade’ of Spending (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Jon Stewart had a positively brilliant idea about this: Have the sponsors of a candidate issue patches to for the congresscritter to wear on their suits like Nascar drivers, make it a mandate, sponsored by.....Goldman-Sachs, WellPoint, Eli Lilly, Geico and HuLangJi's China House investment company "the socially responsible investment company"......
methinks a new business suit fashion would arise..floor length coats and someone to help prop them up due to the weight of the patches.
,rad Xinco,
Were you in on Operation Urgent Fury, during your tour of duty?
Price-to-rent and price-to-income are both moving targets though, with the denominators both moving down.
Fair Economist wrote:
There was a point where the only real opposition point that had any traction was the "Adds $1 Trillion to the deficit over 10 years". It the economy had turned around over the last year, the Dems would have increased their margin in both houses during these special elections, I promise you.
Read your reply more closely; we agree-
rosethorn wrote:
Can I use yours?
Anyone quote Cosell yet?
EvilHenryPaulson, yes, these are nominal prices.
I'll post real and price-to-rent later.
best wishes
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Nope; got out right before that-
'Systemic implications of recoiling from risk'
New regulations needed taking into consideration systemic impact and potential spillovers.
Financial regulation built on sand: Today’s microprudential regulation rules need macroprudential complements | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
Do you attempt to simply 'regulate' and measure systemic risk or eliminate it from the 'system'?
Sure, it's open source
VIXy just surged towards 15% up. Vertical at 2:39pm.
C
here is the text I sent
Dear Senator Leahy,
I was deeply disappointed to read today that you are still undecided on whether to vote for Ben Bernanke to be re-appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
93% of Senior managers of the banks that caused the problem are still in their position. Tim Geithner was rewarded for being asleep while President of the New York Federal Reserve and Bernanke because he helped put out the fire he started is being re-appointed.
Is nobody to be held responsible? The average working Joe would have been fired well before this. I think Bernanke's re-appointment will shout out clearly that there is one set of rules for the well connected and another set of rules for the working person. I think it would be a travesty if Senator of your background representing the great state of Vermont would be a party to this .
Sincerely
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
We had some really funny posts about just that about a week ago. Think John ( or his staff) might be reading here?
Adorn,
Cool job..lucky bastard...micronesia...ohhh the clarity...the warm water...cclt pinches himself to make trade in last hour...
I had a honey hole between aliso pier and 1000 steps...never left the water without at least 3 bugs...7 limit...
rosethorn wrote:
* reply
* Ignore user
Sure, it's open source Smile
Thanks , just sent to Boxer and Feinstein.
Come on God.... please.... please.... let them vote Ben down, and after that 1,000 point drop, I'll cover and never get short again.
ONE TIME MARKET, ONE TIME!
HomeGnome wrote:
I would rather pick your nose and eat it. Shit, man, that job sucks. No wonder your back hurts!
oooh, crazyv, nice
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
From the link:
I wonder how they'll feel when Soros really uncorks the tap on them?
"ONE TIME MARKET, ONE TIME! "
I'll stop after this time, I promise. I can stop anytime I want.
Fannie, Freddie Cannot Exist in Current Form: Frank - CNBC
Haven't even started the taping and mudding yet, scone.
But I'm feeling much better today as I said.
Please don't eat my boogers; they're hallucinogenic.
Eric wrote:
""I believe there will be the votes to confirm him, but it's going to be very close," a senior Democratic leadership aide said."
Ah, the kiss of failure. Just like "Lehman is well capitalized..."
Bernanke confirmation shakier as more Democrats defect
| Reuters
But be careful what you wish for, they might nominate Summers, and then where will you be?
crazyv, that is good and I am amazed Leahy is 'undecided' or maybe I shouldn't be.
Eric wrote:
Hilarious.
Reminds me of Silicon Valley bumper sticker after the dotcom bubble burst: "Please God, Just One More Bubble."
Eric wrote:
Reminds me of the times I work up on the bathroom floor with the room spinning-
HomeGnome wrote:
What have you been snorting?
So, what do you think about SRS now?
Up 8-9% in 3 days.
Go, baby! SRS all the way!
crazyv,
Letters don't seem to work. I think its time we started collecting donations to buy our own lobbyists.
josap, it would be great if they did. I personally think Comedy Central should allow Jon a 2 hour special JUST for the economy. I bet the market share would HUGE.
I love what he did with Cramer recommendations on stocks this week too regarding the MA election, I laugh so hard I almost fainted.
S&P key levels....
I am not a chartist. Have we blown through any?
rich wrote:
Some real junkies here-
"Up 8-9% in 3 days.
Go, baby! SRS all the way! "
My 200 shares have gone up enough for me to afford a vente frappucino at Starbucks. Booyahh!
I think if you want to scare a senator, include content that would look great on a smear campaign ad
like quotes from Bernanke culled from the meeting minutes, or his recommendations to Japan, or that an increase in the price of oil is irrelevant to the Fed because it does not affect consumer prices in the series he looked at
Bernanke has worshipped at the alter of interest rates enough, and there are enough informed people hear to quickly throw together a good hypothetical smear campaign ad
It bothers me less that Bernanke contributed to the problem, than the fact he still does not understand it
Owed to Benito:
YouTube - Al Stewart - On the Border (with lyrics)
Is it time to predict the WSJ headline? Yesterday was a "plunge", so today is "continued plunge"?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
C'mon! Link please
"Geithnerdaemmerung?" - Krugman
Cute, but it only works for the pointy-headed set. Too hard to spell, even with an umlaut. Meme fail imminent.
Is there any source to explain what SRS is all about?
Global Crisis Debate...more econ analysis, proposals, and discussion...
Global Crisis Debate | vox
These guys are over thinking these regulations.
Create two types of institutions - (a) regulated insured depository institutions - (b)unregulated financial trading subsidiaries of Bank holding companies. Regulated insured depository institutions can't take any open trading risk but can act as matched counter parties for their customers.
Prohibit any kind of credit extension between (a) and (b). Pass a law that prohibits the Federal Reserve or any governmental agency from providing assistance to unregulated financial trading subsidiaries. Prohibit extension of credit from (a) to its holding company.
Let the bank holding companies do whatever they want in their unregulated financial trading subsidiaries. If they screw up it will be their creditors left holding the bag which won't be other banks. Instantly no systemic risk. The Regulated insured depository institution will continue to operate irrespective of what happens at the holding company level.
Holy (beep) on this one:
Reid unsure whether to back Bernanke
That's not just a wheel coming off, that's a drive wheel.
I'll try and find it Cinco...
Any one want to come over to tape and mud sheetrock tonight?
You have tools, or do I have to bring my own? (I'm pretty good at taping.)
Round trip, cattle class; a side trip to see Miss South Carolina stumble over her own name, and you've got a deal.
(Got laid off today. So next week is open.)
Yay! I'm only down 200% now instead of the 210% I was down yesterday! Only one more month or so and I'm back to even money!
FAZ pushing 7.5% up. Crankybear is waking up with a sore head.
C
steelhead wrote:
Sure. Here it is: Promise to reward you handsomely as real-estate companies go down, but in truth just leaves everybody in tears.
Mike wrote:
We left the SPX 50 DMA behind @ 114.62. So the answer would be yes.
$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench : StockCharts.com
JP wrote:
Financial Stocks Lead Markets Lower - WSJ.com
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Ug. Sorry to hear it AB.
Fannie, Freddie Cannot Exist in Current Form: Frank - Yahoo! Finance
Born agin Frank?
"
On Friday January 22, 2010, 2:40 pm
Rep. Barney Frank (D-Ma.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said Friday that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be eliminated as they stand now.
"This committee will be recommending abolishing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in their current form and coming up with a whole new system of housing finance, that's the approach rather than the piecemeal one," Frank said.
Frank made his comments during the committee's hearings on executive compensation.
A statement to CNBC.com from a senior congressional staff person said that Frank has said in the past that the current structure of Fannie and Freddie cannot exist and that in Frank's words, 'we cannot go back to the private entity with public responsibilities.'
The White House has said it plans to release a proposal for what to do with the two firms later this year.
The two mortgage finance companies are controlled by the government after it was forced to take them over to avoid their collapse in the fall of 2008.
Slideshow: Highest End Real Estate
Copyright © 2009 CNBC. All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2010 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy - About Our Ads - Terms of Service
Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quote data delayed 15 minutes for Nasdaq, NYSE and Amex. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Yahoo! is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
"
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
You're a sweetheart-
Bosch<
Sorry to hear it man.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Never found one that good. I have a friend who lives on 9th Street, and I stay there quite often -- 1000 steps is right down the hill. Unfortunately, it has been discovered.
A get-rick quick scheme that worked once in the Fall of 2008.
steelhead wrote:
Sure, starting with the Proshares site.
But I have never seen anything that explains how it actually behaves.
You read the description and it makes sense, but it doesn't act like you know it should.
TCA wrote:
Put the bottle down!
What are these bugs you two keep talking about?
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
If you are serious - sorry to hear that
AB, I am really, sincerely, upset to hear this. All my best to you.
YouTube - Major Kong Rides the Bomb
Sorry to hear the bad news AB, good luck
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Sorry to hear that Bosch.
Not sure what else I can say. Good luck in finding something new and maybe better.
rosethorn,
I sent a similar message to my senators from NC this morning. I concluded with something like "A vote to reconfirm Bernanke is a vote to continue the handouts to Wall St. while the citizens of this country suffer grievously." I also included the poll that was in the Huffpost article showing 2:1 people think Bernanke is looking out for Wall St. more than Main St. Polls are always good to motivate elected officials.
If work is so good for us, how come they have to pay us to do it?
Welcome back to F/T status here, ,rad Bosch
DJIA falling like a rock, and volumes picking up too. Doesn't look cose to matching yesterday's volumes though-
OT on that 5-4 thingy:
Conservatives embrace judicial activism in campaign finance ruling - latimes.com
HomeGnome wrote:
Lobsters
REBear wrote:
Say this guy on the local Austin NBC affiliate this morning. Sorry, I don't see a link to the story.
GOOOH | Get Out of Our House: A non-partisan political party!
VERY intriguing.
http://www.wackyarchives.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/huge-lobster-1.jpg
Thanks, adornosghost.
josap wrote:
I don't know either, so I'll try this: Anonymous Bosch is one of the best handles I've seen.
(I might have told you that on HBB a zillion years ago too.)
Anonymous Bosch - sorry it happened to you. Keep your head about you.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
The Untouchables caste has claimed another member. May his taint never befoul our sacred home.
(of course)
.
If BB is out, the Fed is still there. Systemic risk is still there. TBTF is still there.
SNAFU wrote:
I really do think they are going to nationalize the mortgage market. Buy the rest of the MBS, run it all through F&F. Set rates, down payments, the whole nine yards.
but it would solve all the problems, except for the tax payer that is.
Maybe
You should not worry a second about holding gold. It's the best hedge against any kind of collapse for the long-term.
You should take the profits on your shorts after the market goes down and use it to buy more gold.
The walls of public opinion are closing in on Benito, as he is being offered the choice of going with or without a blindfold.
Thesaurus listing for plunge: belly-flop, career, cast, charge, dash, descend, dip, drive, drop, duck, fling, go down, go the limit, go whole hog, hurtle, immerge, immerse, jump, keel, lunge, lurch, nose-dive, pitch, plummet, plunk, propel, rush, shoot the works, sink, sound, submerge, submerse, swoop, take a flyer, take a header, tear, throw, throw oneself, thrust, topple, tumble.
Have at it, WSJ.
Gold - The Big Picture - Boston.com
pictures of gold all over the world
Federal deficit hits $36-billion - The Globe and Mail
I would guess that Canada goes to the election polls sometime this year, and Harper/The Conservatives won't form the next government. As for rate hikes, I believe the Bank of Canada will be keeping its promise to keep the overnight rate frozen at 25bp until mid year (with the Loonie swinging up and down based on investor sentiment to offset any real need to change the rate)
rich wrote:
I don't know about you, but I don't think anyone would want to buy my shorts...
The market is feeling the systemic risk of losing BB and Timmay and maybe non-transparency will be threatened.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
I've always preferred semi-retired to underemployed, but my hair is grey enough to get away with it.
You'll find a way to cope, too.
Ah, it is nice to see a return to the logical, rational, predictable good old days of falling home prices and falling stock markets.
This I understand.
What has been going on for the past nine months I did not understand.
sportsfan quoted:
Sorry, but this is BS. Defending an enumerated right in the US Constitution is not judicial activism. However, creating "rights" out of thin air is, not that all of it was bad. I think we have a much better criminal justice system with the Miranda ruling.
Thanks for all your heartfelt wishes, guys. It's not a big deal, the Convention Center is SNAFU, company is temporarily overmanned. I'll probably go back soon. I'm not like a cubicle jokey who gets laid off and has nowhere else to go. And I might pick up some day-or-two jobs in the meantime.
Was halfway serious, Gnome. I'm an excellent taper. Worked as a house painter / drywall finisher for 5 years. A little bucket and a couple of knives from Lowe's and we're good to go.
Not unreasonable points, EHP, and I agree BB still doesn't understand. But I think that reconfirmation of the FRB chair is a pretty arcane issue relative to the public. So if senators notice increased volume of feedback from their constituents on this one issue, even if the comments are brief like mine, they'll notice it.
later...
Fair Economist wrote:
I wouldn't get too excited. What they say in public vs. what they finally do-- 2 different things. Reid knows enough not to spit into the wind right now, that's all. There are days before the confirmation, and "24 hours is a long time in politics," as Blackadder says.
Just another person to add to the work is over rated statistics.
Bernanke will probably get confirmed unless a smoking gun comes out.
For example, if Timmy and Ben shared a hotel room in the week AIG counterparties were paid 100 cents on the dollar, that would be a smoking gun. Ben should stay far, far away from Timmy for awhile.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
My condolences. I know the feeling, and it not a good one.
josap wrote:
They already effectively have. The messy part is that doing so now means putting all the debt & guarantees on the federal balance sheet (i.e. taxpayer), plus it opens the door for Barney to offer no-limit NINJA loans to everyone.
I can't think of anything (short of Medicare for Everyone) that would bankrupt this country faster.
josap wrote:
They effectively have already. Is there really a need to "formalize" that decision?
Where's Seb and Mork?
Bottom's in..... run like wind to UNCH.
Bosch<
I appreciate the offer but you've had enough excitement for one day.
Enjoy a nice dinner with Mrs. Bosch and I'll see you on the other side of the drywall...
Cinco-X wrote:
Excuse me, but could you point me to the section in the Constitution that mentions corporations?
I'm not an expert on TA, but it seems to me that if the S&P busts through 1090 - a level it bounced off of several times in Nov/Dec last year - that it could be a fast and furious fall from there.
ed it.
falling in MetWest Boston. Over $500,000 is the dead zone. Might not be an issue except 70% of the houses are over $500,000.
SRS is suppose to track double the inverse of IYR on a daily basis.
The problem is that IYR has been so volatile that the daily fluctuations add up to big underperformance over time.
Also, at times, SRS has been gamed downward by squid and other big speculators.
Lately, SRS has been doing a good job tracking double inverse of IYR. When IYR is consistently falling, the daily compounding results in out-performance, and some of the gaming also gets unwound and reversed.
SRS is the double inverse of IYR. IYR is a large CRE fund. Hotels, office, malls (lots of malls!),medical, public storage, etc.
IYR has been up around 150% in the past 9 months.
@ badger - I'm in Gearville now!
Here's a link to the top six contributors to SRS.
Well, everything is hurrying to the bottom today. Gold is 1090. PPT is still voting in Massachussetts,
rosethorn
the general public doesn't much understand what has happened, which just renders them very fertile ground for a scapegoat attack on Bernanke in my opinion... but I suppose neither Democrats or Republicans want to go down that road because they'll both look bad
Maybe on Monday, the fundamentals will be better.
VIX to 18.55%.
C
12th Percentile wrote:
See, that's one part that makes absolutely no sense to me.
Cinco-X wrote:
Yeah, but if you start giving corporations "rights," the next thing they'll want is a vote... Or we could just cut to the chase and apportion Congress by market cap.
Will somebody do something about the violence being exported in the guise of frozen water-boarding, from the Gulag Hockeypelago...
YouTube - Kids mass hockey brawl: Under-10 teams big fight
josap wrote:
I think there will be less risk to the tax payer if FNM and Freddie were totally and completely nationalized. It is their in between status that allows people to pretend the tax payer is not on the hook. It is the same thing with health insurance. Neither totally free market nor totally government . We would be far better off if health insurance companies had no requirements with regard to what they should or should not cover. Under our current system politicians get to place mandates without having to fess up to the costs.
rich wrote:
Never be caught with a dead girl or a live boy-
Really? 'cuz, you know, my mom's realtor friend in Dedham says the bottom is in and prices are headed back up.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
More bankrupt than we already are? While file BK on $20,000. when you can walk from $50,000.?
Cinco-x
Yes, they do need to fomalize it. MBS will full gov backing at 100% would make Wall Street very happy campers. Setting rates and terms by one agency would help J6P understand a mortgage - if they did it right. (yes I know that is
)
Eric wrote:
Snark or no snark?
sportsfan wrote:
Same place they mention unions-
Formalizing it may cut out YSP and various fees lenders rack up during the inital transaction.
If I could take a loan directly with Fannie or Freddy and not have to go through the mortgage brokerage arm of a TBTF entity, I'd do it in a heartbeat.
Blackhalo wrote:
Haven't we already done that? The members are seamless, as they go from a position in a corp, to congress, or vice versa. The same group of elites. Capitalism cannot function without a strong central state.
Cheer up, Guys! That's an order!
I just finished three full weeks. That means I'm set for three months' bills. Lest you forget, I make oodles of moolah when I work.
My only complaint is that I'm finally back in shape and if I don't keep working, the next time out is going to be hell all over again getting used to the grueling, brutal work.
noob goldberg wrote:
I'm doing a little double-reverse psycho on Mr. Market.
Still pretty short here, except for longs on GLD and PPH.
OK Cinco...found it:
Video: Indecision 2010 - The Re-Changening | The Daily Show | Comedy Central
at about 8min for the Cramer part. The rest is funny too so worth the full watch (as usual).
TCA wrote:
I'm not a chartist either, and I know there's no reason an oversold market can't continue to sell off; but note the Williams%r is reading 96.88. Also note the length of time it has remained below 80 during the course of this rally. Course you always have to ask yourself whether the story has changed.
$INDU - SharpCharts Workbench : StockCharts.com
Blackhalo wrote:
thought they did that already.
no snark
Bosch<
Ask Mrs. Bosch for a "honey do" list.
That will keep you occupied.
We read today, in an earlier post, of a hotel industry person saying 2009 was the worst year ever for the industry.
HST, the largest hotel REIT (and part of IYR) was around $3 a share in the beginning of this year. It was over $12 a few days ago.
Talk about not making sense. You could've made a 300% return owning a part of an industry having its worst year ever (well, until this year).
adornosghost wrote:
They've sold it so well for so long that many people actually believe capitalism is mentioned in the Constitution.
I was wrong about SRS killings.
The move in SRS on my 200 shares allows me to afford not only a Vente Frappucino but a super-sized meal at McDonalds.
rosethorn wrote:
It is all about cost/benefit. The real question is how much pressure are they getting to vote for Bernanke. Do the people that own them really want Bernanke re-appointed. The owners of our congress critters have to manage their investment. No point owning somebody if they don't re-elected. So once in a while you have to give them freedom to keep their constituents happy. A Congress critter loves nothing more than issue that their owners don't care about but their constituents do.
VIX to 22%.
C
Counterpointer wrote:
Yay for vega on my puts!
Buy fear; sell greed.
Eric wrote:
omg. That distinctly sounds like non-weeping from over there.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
There is a lot of mutual FAIL, that I'm sure they would like swept under the rug. If Bernanke were to be vilified, I imagine it would be difficult to many to distance themselves.
It was all very clever at the 1st Bernanke go-round, with Dodd sticking up for him mightily, knowing his own days were numbered...
Testing Dow 10,200 support in 3, 2, 1...
C
poic wrote:
The world must be about to end, because all of my tiny little positions are now green. I can officially afford an ipod.
I strongly suggest everyone get out of the market because this cannot portend good things.
JP wrote:
Blind squirrel, acorn.....
Broken clock, twice a day....
yada yada yada.
I appreciate the offer but you've had enough excitement for one day.
Enjoy a nice dinner with Mrs. Bosch and I'll see you on the other side of the drywall...
Better than that, Gnome. I'm making my famous beef barley soup tomorrow. Bought the marrow bones on the way home this afternoon. Mrs.B bought the massive piece of Charles Roast yesterday. (It's not Chuck -- this grass-fed, free-range beef. The critter probably even had a cute name.)
Counterpointer wrote:
dshort.com - S&P 500 Technical Preview
Counterpointer wrote:
Well that broke through with some vigour.
HAL: Dave, although you took very thorough precautions in the ipod against my hearing you, I could see your lips move.
Counterpointer wrote:
The sharp slide will leave cuts on the line of many bottoms.
According to rich, you should buy
. I'm sure you have enough to buy a grain or two. Just don't sneeze...
Mr Slippery wrote:
Very unpleasant visual-
That's exactly what I'm talking about, Bosch.
Is AIG's toes warming up in the bullpen?
Now, Where did I leave that DOW 10K hat...
Bloomie's showing 10.204 @2:45. Slide some more in real time?
sportsfan wrote:
Not as many as think it mentions "democracy".
Mr. Market wants President Obama to enjoy the weekend.....
merchants of fear wrote:
I sure would like to see who is hitting the Fed window, and for how much...
DJI is 10160 -226 real-time.
RATM wrote:
If I had a gold bar that big, I wouldn't let any kid stick his grubby hand through the glass and touch it.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I was in shock, after looking at the store receipt and seeing how much I spent on the damned thing.
Is Maria's mascara running down her face yet? Her electricity bills this week have shown a massive week-over-week plunge.
Breach 1090??
When Cramer made his bullish call on a GOP win in MA, you think he factored in Obama going into panic mode and Bernanke not getting confirmed?
poic wrote:
That explains those GE numbers.
I smell fear.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Or that the general welfare clause subconsciously enumerates any positive right that one might fancy
The 4th rock out is threatening to show, as the clouds are threatening to leave, so I must go follow the sun, see ya.
Obama's Real Wall Street Scheme - Page 1 - The Daily Beast
Interesting take on the hubris of the Masters of the Universe-
well josap, didncha know the markets are a representation of Main Street economy? After all, that trickle down has proved itself so enabling of everyone! The markets are THE most important part of the economy therefore and must always be considered first. If for example a company, like say GE, is profitable in one quarter because laying off people which makes them more efficient, then thats a guaranteed
for their stock.
Its shows us; therefore, just how important it is for the workers and savers to understand as individuals, we are the most inefficient parts of the economy. Our participation and productivity is not what is important. If we have utilities can make a larger profit by metering the service they provide even it that metering is false and raising rates without basis, then that too is good for the market. Ask the workers of Enron how that works and if it was such a bad thing to do, after all, their stock was their reward for providing the citizens of CA such outstanding service.
We just don't understand those misunderstood saints who keep the wheels of progress going. We are poorly educated and have bad attitudes. We must understand its Gawds work they are doing and they are schooling us now in just who and what is important, efficient and truly necessary. Its a tough lesson, I know I'm having great difficulty understanding it.
poic wrote:
This is fun! SDS doing alright today.
Don't quote me wrong. Now is not the time to cash out all your short profits and put it into gold.
There's at least 20% more downside in the Dow and that could mean 60% upside in SRS.
The trend is your SRS friend.
rich wrote:
A Republican Won, So Why the Selloff? at SmartMoney.com
Interesting Times wrote:
Have you checked your pants?
Interesting Times wrote:
It's indecision on my part. Do I go with the probabilities, and close my positions for the weekend, or let it ride and see what happens Monday? Decisions, decisions. But this is way more fun than VIX 16 or 17; that was like watching paint dry.
For the first time in my life I have learned who is my senator. I follow what The Market Ticker
said. I sent the senator an email asking to say "NO" to Bernanke and ask to bring back Paul Volcker. Please do the same.
Interesting Times wrote:
No; that was me. Got into the cheese again-
Just felt like roughly looking at the engineering job market beyond my own little world.
electrical engineer, mechanical engineer, chemical engineer, civil engineer Job Trends | Indeed.com (Jan 2005 - Present)
Electrical Engineer, Mechanical Engineer, Chemical Engineer, Civil Engineer Trends | Simply Hired (May 2008 - Nov 30 2009)
should look back in a month or two, postings were increasing from July towards the end of the 2009, but have declined since
VIX to 24%.
Bloodbath, heatmap stylee (h/t EHP)
S&P 500 Map Heatmap
C
VIX will test the recent highs of 2007-2008. No doubt about it.
GS is either gonna be cut in half and take their sh*t sandwich. Or they will not exist this time next year.
I am betting on the latter. (only $500 worth)
Blackhalo (homepage, profile)wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 1/22/2010 - 4:33 pm
Cinco-X wrote:
Yeah, but if you start giving corporations "rights," the next thing they'll want is a vote... Or we could just cut to the chase and apportion Congress by market cap.
Don't "corporations" already have rights by definition? Isn't that the point of incorporating, so as to gain specific legal rights as an organization?
SNAFU wrote:
Should be interesting...
rich wrote:
You mean the unintended consequences? No. But me neither. Obama, to this point, has shown ME no spine or hint of leadership. And I suspect, if the market continues to falter, he will catch the blame, and congress will act against him on any regulation. As again, what is he going to do about it?
Where Will the Next Crisis Hit? - MoneyShow.com
News & Broadcast - As World Economy Slowly Recovers, Developing World Faces Scarce Financing, Says World Bank
Wow, I thought the schmucks would hold the line at -200.
They must be unhappy with the crucifixion of their figurehead, Bernanke, and with that break-'em-up and tax-'em-up thing.
Waaa.
Eric wrote:
Siriusly.
Comrade-Dope jg wrote:
Impressive volumes at the end-
blackhalo-
as you said yesterday...he owns it. Waiting a year before doing anything about the TBTF's is already going to have it's consequence(s)....he simply waited far too long and is going to get blamed no matter what he does. Causation is a bitch....
Ciao
MS
Regulations and reforms are systemic risk. Transparency is SR. Everything is __________. Ding ding ding ding. Closing bell. Triple digit move.
Is it time for BFF yet? What state will win todays prize?
also very interesting, online job postings per capita placed onto a map of the USA
Where are the Jobs? | Indeed.com
Looks like the 2 destinations for online job seekers are Washington DC, or San Jose CA
Inverted Hammer of Thor wrote:
Don't "corporations" already have rights by definition? Isn't that the point of incorporating, so as to gain specific legal rights as an organization?
Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens may have had his tongue in his cheek, or perhaps wanted merely to taunt the majority, when he wrote in Thursday’s opinion on the role of corporations in national politics: “Under the majority’s view, I suppose it may be a First Amendment problem that corporations are not permitted to vote, given that voting is, among other things, a form of speech.” It is a tantalizing notion.
Analysis: The personhood of corporations
VIX 52wk Range: 16.86 - 53.25 -- just to put it in perspective.
I realized today that I have too many
miners in my portfolio.
Silver got whacked and it made a big difference.
The truth is that the stock market was due to tank even if Scott Brown hadn't been born.
$DJI closes near low of day. -218.64 right now.
Ohhh wow...'No rules' Greenspan just gave BB a good reference. Re-appoint!
rich wrote:
ha Rich, that was rich!
jo6pac wrote:
Bristol Palin files for child support
Friday, January 22, 2010
A court document filed Thursday says Bristol Palin is seeking $1,750 a month from Levi Johnston. It says Bristol is providing nearly 100 percent of Tripp's care, and that Johnston has paid only $4,400 in more than a year.
The welfare check can't be far behind. Family Values, I guess.
Breaking: UK raises terrorism threat level to "severe"...
It must be those financial terrorists again...
BremNorthwest wrote:
So why no mention of unions in his response? Union members have portions of their due sent to political campaigns even if they oppose those choices.
Is Greenscam really an endorsement or sabotage?
now that was the most fun I've had watching the markets since Feb 2009
still sad we didn't blow through 1090 but there is always Monday
Nothing to worry only 5% in three days......just some year end profit taking
Monday- will it be big Squeeze or the Gunbarrell run at Heavenly?
Heavenly Ski Resort Trail Map | SkiHeavenly.com
its steep and deep..
Cinco-X wrote:
America, 2010: the relative power of corporations and unions is nothing more than a bad joke.
In Counting with Bloomie today, we add three days of declines and get -4.7%.
U.S. Stocks Tumble to Extend Dow Average’s 3-Day Drop to 4.7% - Bloomberg.com
Ouch.
Well, that's all great fun and games. Bring on the banks!
C
That's what I was trying to tell you. The correlation of miners with the S&P 500 was too high for comfort.
Also, you can be confident that silver bullion and SLV will do well over the long-term. But if the market tanks and stays low, it may take longer for some miners to return. The only miner I kept was SLW. It's an unusual company because it is growing ounces so fast and is like silver bullion on steroids (1.5 X). It has got whacked this week, but I'm not at all worried. It's for my old age.
WestSac_grrl wrote:
5.5% drop in 3 days; 3 more days of this and we call it a correction?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I live in DC and used to live in SJC. If SJ job market is considered desirable, then welcome to the depression.
(DC is waaay more vibrant.)
Who would have thought that a Cosmo centerfold in MA could so thoroughly screw up TPTB's gameplan. Ben on the ropes, Tim eyeing the bottom of the bus, big O getting panicky.
The State of the Union address could be big if O decides to throw some more anti-bank stuff out there.
Inverted Hammer of Thor wrote:
Yes, but corporate law has been expanded hugely since it got started a couple of centuries ago. To the point where corporations are big enough to eat whole countries in a squidly embrace. Like the Mafia owns Italy, or Hamas owns, well, whatever that strip of land is.
Ben Dover,
Greenspan doesn't like 'wildcards'...and neither does the Fed...or Treasury...'wildcards' are systemic risk...don't rock the boat (Titanic)...
"The truth is that the stock market was due to tank even if Scott Brown hadn't been born. "
True that however it should be noted that it should have tanked in September.......seeing as almost all of it's action was based solely on the futures movements-there is a chart out there but at the moment I can't seem to locate it). What this really points out is the controlling aspect that very few have on it (i.e. the Goldmans of the world). If the last few days doesn't convince the masses who really has control then it never will.
Ciao
MS
I completely agree. Unions have historically had significant influence in politics and policy making.
Comrade-Dope jg wrote:
They must be unhappy with the crucifixion of their figurehead, Bernanke, and with that break-'em-up and tax-'em-up thing.
Waaa.
It's often seemed to me in recent years that the markets react overly rapidly and aggressively to any faint sign that Washington might go back to serving the average man before them. The average man himself doesn't seem anywhere near as focused about these matters. I 'm probably just ignorant, but from a distance it often looks as though "Wall Street" is full of decision-makers who've been expecting a major smackdown for years, and who can never quite believe it isn't beginning.
It's a great way to pass time.
JP wrote:
Well it's not completely accurate, because they are group by cities it doesn't account for cities with small resident populations but a lot of commuters or how a lot of DC jobs are divided among a few surrounding cities.
Cinco-X wrote:
Both unions and corporations benefit from this ruling, but corporations probably a bit more, as they have access to OPM. Plus a union tends to be fairly representative of its members, in contrast to a corporation, who tends to represent the shareholders disproportionately, and more closely represents the board and CXOs.
Blackhalo wrote:
OPM? Other peoples money? BTW, I don't buy this, since all of the campaign finance reform I've seen in my lifetime has had little effect on unions participation in elections. I'm anti-union, but you knew that
Blackhalo wrote:
LMAO!!!
The DC area is the home of license plates from all over the US. Some of them seem to know how to drive which is unusual when compared to our other immigrants.
Cinco-X wrote:
From what I could find, most unions are Non-Profit Corporations
Cinco-X wrote:
I am anti union as well, but I am anti-corporation (in government) more.
BremNorthwest wrote:
So they're like charities, right?
BremNorthwest wrote:
To be clear, I wasn't advocating for corporations to have the right to vote; I was just trying to point out that it seems to be a rather poor attempt at making a slippery slope argument by equating the franchise with free speech.
The way I see it, a corporation is a group of individuals, all of whom have the right to vote and the right to free speech. The difference between the two, of course, is that the franchise is not a transferrable right; if ten like-minded individuals get together, they can't have one person cast ten votes, they must all vote individually. Speech, on the other hand, is much more malleable: if ten like-minded people wish to write an editorial, or issue a statement, only one person need be the mouthpiece. Hence lawyers, and spokespersons, and press secretaries.
I personally never saw how certain aspects of McCain-Feingold could ever be upheld as constitutional; I can understand the desire to reform laws pertaining to financial contributions, but there are simply too many gray areas. After all, it's easy enough to say "You can only contribute so many dollars to a candidate", but how does one go about quantifying speech? If I own a newspaper, how much is an editorial in favor of a candidate worth? What if I don't own a newspaper but have a blog with a similar readership?
I think that, realistically speaking, the best we can hope for in regards to campaign finance laws regarding speech is one of the provisions already put in place by McCain Feingold: the requirement that the originator and financiers of any advertisements identify themselves, as well as whether or not they have direct approval from the candidate.
So those critical may be right that Walmart may now be able to run commercials promotoing a particular bill or candidate, but they will still have to identify that they, walmart, have paid for the ad and it does/does not have the approval of the candidate, etc. After that, it's up to the people to decide how much stock they put in walmart's opinions.
Blackhalo wrote:
I'm against that as well, but as I alluded, all of the campaign reform Ive seen in my lifetime has not been about fairer elections, but rather giving one party (the Dems) and advantage over the other. Remember, it's the Dems that put in the loophole for PACs in the original legislation back in the '70s and the Dems were the first to use them. The same is true for 527 in the more recent "reform". Screw 'em all. No legislation would have been better than what we got. The best thing we could do is make sure everyone know who's on who's payroll. You can find that out at:
OpenSecrets.org: Money in Politics -- See Who's Giving & Who's Getting
but you have to know to look. Why not require that every time one of these clowns gets up to grandstand about this or that, s/he has a banner behind him showing his corporate "sponsors", so everyone will be able to see his comments in context. The present system is just hiding the sausage-
Inverted Hammer of Thor wrote:
I get your point now. We should pass a law that allows the CEO of a corporation to vote on behalf of all the employees. Heck, maybe all the stockholders too.
The only problem is it wouldn't really change the way things work all that much.
albrt wrote:
If we use precedent, he'd only get to cast 2/3 of a vote for each-
albrt wrote:
I hope that, because it's late Friday afternoon, my snark-meter is just off. Because the first thing that came to my mind was "That's the exact opposite of my point!"
This is what Gavin Newsom's stunt got us. No one wanted to hear it then, but it is true. Kerry may have been almost as bad in some ways, but the damage of things like the Scalito appointment will last for decades.
Heckuva job, Gavin and Shrum.
Cinco-X wrote:
3/5ths