Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 22 members and 152 guests online.
I think your definition of Permanent isn't the same as mine. How many will redefault.
I was trading SRS and SKF the day shorting financials was banned.
I remember the no bid temporary situation and massive spread between bid/ask as everone ran for the exits. I saw it on my computer screen.
So yes Rich please enlighten me on how etfs work. Perhaps my trading software was just throwing out fake data at me?
I like "repot" for modifications!
I don't know what you have against repotting. Some plants absolutely require it for maintainance.
(which might explain what the headline writers over at the treasury had on the brain when they wrote it.
Shouldnt we have a can kicking icon by now?
Thats as close as I could get...
For Rich,
I was
I know there is not enough physical gold to cover the money invested in an EFT. Regardless of the little disclaimers provided to investors...the people I know personally who are invested in EFTs are under the impression they can get their gold out with no problem. Some of them don't even realize they aren't even entitled to physical gold with what they are invested in. But I digress... I clearly have caused your blood pressure to rise this morning, sorry about my infernal tendencies. I hereby profess to this august assembly I know nothing about EFTs. I am a financial imbecile, a fool if you will when it comes to money. Let it be proclaimed far an wide that I am in fact an ass. See, I'm a big man, I can admit my faults. I know nothing, like all good absent minded philosophers.
CR, you ask too many questions, the jackboots will be knocking on your door soon.
Citizen Allen, made a mistake on the last thread, SLS was not Fairbanks, Fairbanks became SPS, I get those subprime subservicers confused.
repot = a new attempt to legalize pot ?
Bah.
It doesn't matter, didn't you just listen to Jaime.
All that matters is that the revenue stream continue for a few more years so the banksters can show quarterly net profits.
There is no need to pay the principal back, it is Other Peoples' Money!
And, no, they, don't need their new improved profits to be set aside for future losses;
hello! they're for more better bonuses!
The Feds will bail out the bagholders when principal is wiped out.
Duh.
"I like "repot" for modifications!"
mods for ficus!
Holy mackeral. It's fixed over there already.
Bud: Repot Man's got all night, every night.
fudge_hend, hopefully they will provide us with data on how many "permanent" mods drop out. Not really my definition of permanent!
Also I see they fixed the typo in the press release. I liked "Repot" (as opposed to "Report")
best wishes
Repoting dead plants doesn't do much...but if you like the pot...
Debbi: Duke, let's go do some crimes.
Duke: Yeah. Let's go get sushi and not pay.
"Permanent" = you get no principal reduction, and no permanent interest rate reduction, you get a temporary buydown with payment shock guaranteed.
"# Is the interest rate subject to change during the term of the HAMP modification?
If the modified rate is below the market rate as determined from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey rate on the date the modification agreement is prepared, the modified rate will be fixed for a minimum of five years as specified in your modification agreement.** Beginning in year six, the rate may increase no more than one percentage point per year until it reaches the market rate at the time the modification agreement is prepared.** Your rate can never be higher than the market rate as indicated in your modification agreement. If the modified rate is at or above the market rate at the time the modification agreement is prepared, however, the modified rate is fixed for the life of the loan. "
It feels like we're playing a game where the other team gets to change the scoring system whenever they feel like it.
O.K., we've established the epicness of the FAIL...
This is a reply I posted to MS on the last thread. I don't normally repost pigged threads but there are a lot of people here who are depending on ETFs, and I'd like them to see it.
MS,
I don't believe it because I read it. I believe it because I work closely with money managers and the money management industry. I've watched ETFs almost since the day they were born. I was skeptical about them for several years. I'm still skeptical or critical about some things, such as ProShares claims regarding the volatility of double shorts. But I'm not really worried about the liquidity of ETFs. They are actually a lot more liquid than mutual funds.
If you want to talk about the potential to be left holding the bag in a run, talk about small emerging market mutual funds.
There is no ETF that has been more maligned and manipulated than SRS. But just watch SRS trade against IYR for a few minutes, on any given day now. Whenever that cross gets out of alignment by more than 2-3 pennies, there's an arb out there who brings it back and pockets the coin. The arb either are Authorized Participants, who can put the ETF shares back for stocks, or they work with APs. At the same time they put the ETF shares, they can go short the stocks received and lock in profits. Putting excess shares back to ETFs is pretty quick and riskless for arbs.
I remember when I was the pessimist for suggesting a 10% success rate after subtracting the redefaults within 1 year of modification back when they first announced the $75bn program
On JPM, did anyone listen to the conference call? Just wondering if there was any mention of all the TLGP debt they issued which is still outstanding?
Remember all the hype when it ws announced that the .gov and the banks would work together to modify mortgages and prevent forclosures? This was supposed to be the great panacea, good for what ails us.
We are now confronted with evidence that there is no scale; that is, even if we accept that the programs have worked for a handful of borrowers, there is not enough impact to actually stem the tide. We attempted to climb Everest with a Swiss Army knife and a pocketfull of trail mix!
This is very bad news, and bodes ill for the .gov who cannot plausibly argue that all of the blather and palaver accomplished anything other than making people feel better, sadly only for the duration of the original announcements and no longer.
Maybe it turns out that we were only thinking about maybe someday climbing Everest ... we never actually climbed anything much at all. Kind of sad, really.
File this one under "futility."
any new news on the HAMP to short sale program?
I posted this on last thread early and didn't hear a chirp....we almost busted thru that bear market rally trendline just now....
Drv and srs are lagging on this drop...hmmm
Oxtail wrote:
It feels like we're playing a game where the other team gets to change the scoring system whenever they feel like it.
That's only slightly fairer than a game where the other team gets to change the score whenever they feel like it.
About ETF's
I blame society.
HAMP = Kick The Can't
It looks like 26% of the permanent mods involved some sort of principal forebearance, so maybe those people will stay in their homes.
NOTE: ghostfaceinvestah is pretty convincing that the forebearance won't lower the redefault rate - so never mind that comment!
UPDATE: I should have made this clear - this is forebearance - not a prinicipal reduction. This is essentially a 2nd lien with a balloon payment thanks to ghostfaceinvestah.
best wishes
Nice tiley, albrt.
Thanks, we had fun.
albrt wrote:
.......of course. But then that's why we're not invited to many parties.
Oxtail wrote:
That's how my wife argues.
as noted above
ETFs dont actually sell you physical and redemptions for that barbaric...fagettaboutdit
i learned recently that the "pot" of gold that "investors" are allegedly buying into
is, in some funds, slowly sold off to pay management fees
so as gold goes up..you own more and more, dollar wise, of less and less gold
i learned this by reading a prospectus on one of the funds...30 pages long
and found this little tidbit around page 15
im not so smart so i may be just full of it
id like to hear from anybody who wants to call BS on my interpretation
cause when im shown to be wrong, i learn
so once again i shy away from derivatives
there is not enough impact to actually stem the tide-- 3T
And it ensures batches of dead houses will finally get squirted through the pipeline in fits and starts, extending the disease cycle for several years longer than otherwise. Like alternating diarrhea and constipation.
Most excellent Saint Ronnie bobble-head tiley, dude.
It's one of the best places to time-travel...
Ok I'll play the repost game:
Rich-
you are missing the point....That happens because there is a market to trade and is liquid at the time. When we finally (who knows when) have a market that can't function due to the steroids it's been on for a very long time is when the problems with any ETF, or anything else for that matter, start to happen. The PM ETF market is nothing more than a MBS market due to the overwhelming number of claims tied to a dwindling physically available market....that is not going to end well. I do understand how ETF's work in a liquid market.....pretty academic IMO....what I'm saying is at some point the market just won't be due to an overwhelming number of factors. You seem unable to grasp this.....
Ciao
MS
Thanks. I figured I'd try an animated Gif and see if it worked. It shows up in the tiley but not on the scroll, which is probably good as i was worried it would be annoying.
Finally, a day where my commodities and shorts are both coming in. I should enjoy it, I doubt it is a trend.
1127 sp is key.....
Just my guess.
The lenders are moving to have the home-debtors move into short sales. Lots more short sales are showing up on MLS in Az.
For MSM and PR usage, short sales are not forclosures and will bring down those numbers. of course people still lose the house, lenders still write down the loss. Just a rose by another name.
If the patient isn't given a steady I.V. drip of money, it will get financially dehydrated.
cclt
wsj said gm gave $7,000 in incentives per vehicle in December
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
...like a plate o' shrinp....
"On JPM, did anyone listen to the conference call? Just wondering if there was any mention of all the TLGP debt they issued which is still outstanding?"
Is there snark associated with this? can't tell....
Ciao
MS
This caught my eye.
Meanwhile, roughly 8 million to 13 million foreclosures are expected to take place over the next five years, according to the Congressional Oversight Panel for the $700 billion bank-bailout program.
Obama modification program helps 100,000 borrowers - MarketWatch
"It looks like 26% of the permanent mods involved some sort of principal forebearance, so maybe those people will stay in their homes."
CR, principal FOREBEARANCE, not FOREGIVENESS.
Basically these people now have a giant balloon loan, they have no more incentive to pay the loan than before. They have no more equity than before, and probably less, as the lost payments were tacked onto the principal.
They are in worse shape than when they entered the program from an equity standpoint.
I've been pretty apprehensive of the Olympics doing ok in Vancouver for a while.... but just 1 more month and a bit, might get a very lucky window. They might just pull it off, YouTube - You Gotta Be Here - Super Natural British Columbia | 30 second
Now the 2012 games in London, yikes
Problem with my time machine is that it only goes back a couple of seconds, so by the time you get in and out, your back in the present. Plus it really screws with your brain...like a clock that is a few seconds off...
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
I didn't catch that, makes a lot more sense, thanks
ehp- they need it..as you and so many have noted demand is just not there like bubblemania years...the credit score destruction will limit new and used car buyer pool for a long time....
Penske said yesterday more dealerships need to be closed....it's going to happen...
I'm on the outside looking in, as far as ETF's are concerned. I have no interest, other than watcing the timing in which they came about being, and the idea that people are cool with their metal supposedly being far, far away, 100% in the hands of somebody else.
It doesn't make any sense, but it's tailor-made for remote control investors.
"any new news on the HAMP to short sale program? "
Haven't seen any yet. They HAVE to get the short sales ramped up, we are reaching a critical time, things could get really out of control if we don't resolve the housing problems soon. i.e resolve = reduce the number of delinquent borrowers.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Stop using facts to make your case - it's pointless. Most of these cases are people who only looked at the teaser monthly rate to begin with. They haven't the wits to figure out what the true cost is. If the monthly nut is low enough is all they care about. So unless you can break it down into some type of american idol based arguement for them they won't get it.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
comes with a remote controlled payoff included in the fee
they're scams, shams, and silly
just silly
Yes. It is essentially a silent 2nd. They are still renters, but I think it might lower the default rate.
best wishes
dont have any idea but I have leaked video of Jamie and the crew after the cc
YouTube - Dr Evil's Laughing Scene
Like leaving your money with the Knights Templar in Spain, successfully making your way to the Holy Land, paying the protection fee, and retrieving it. If your paperwork was in order...and you survived the trip that is.
Go to Pompeii & Herculaneum, and then go to dodgy Naples, to the Archeological Museum, where the goodies from both locales are on display. A couple of well-off Roman villages, stuck in time.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
I'm skeptical of that. As long as there is a means to discriminate within the group of terrible credit histories, they'll just focus on lending to the bulk of relatively mediocre credit scores. That is if borrowers want to borrow or lenders want to lend at any price.
we'll see ya at 1090 coming up next week.
they havent even got the smelling salts out for Frazier yet.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Like leaving your money with the Knights Templar in Spain, successfully making your way to the Holy Land, paying the protection fee, and retrieving it. If your paperwork was in order...and you survived the trip that is.
If not - hey, a banker's gotta make a living, right? Hmm...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I remember before Athens there was talk of the IOC asking around about a backup host in case Greece couldn't finish preparations in time. I think they need to start quietly lining up backups for 2012. There's so much that can blow up in the next 2 years. Especially in the UK.
Just dropping in to tell you the sad story of the security guard at my ofc building.
Haitian.
He still hasn't gotten in touch with his brother and he heard that is cousin and
cousin's 2 sons died when a roof fell on them.
On the other hand the lady to took my payment at Denny's said her relatives are ok.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
https://www.hmpadmin.com//portal/docs/hamp_servicer/sd0909.pdf
can't copy and paste from pdf.
Short sales are to be pushed as of April 2010, right after the buyers tax credit goes away.
I told them they had 1 year to fart around before catching up on the delinquency backlog, they knew it was coming. It's only a question of what kind of bailout they get. Bernanke will never let them commit suicide, he learned his great depression lessons too well to let that happen
jd-
yes the timing of those things sprouting like weeds just as MMF inflows were grinding to a halt makes me wonder too. I have made money on several of them but I also recall the numerous hassles with the tax reporting (k-1 in some cases) that were more than 10% wrong and having to fight those with my own trading records to prove them inaccurate.
Just another tool in the toolbox though...
Ciao
MS
Traveler's checks were an updated version of the Knights Templar scheme, just like gift cards are now.
I dont disagree.....but if it breaks thru 1127, more downside coming today or tuesday...
One of my first short stories was about a Centurion who sacked the Temple in Jerusalem and retired to Pompeii. Woke up from the nightmare of his past to the nightmare of Vesuvius...a waking dream/nightmare if you will...
Meanwhile, roughly 8 million to 13 million foreclosures are expected to take place over the next five years, according to the Congressional Oversight Panel for the $700 billion bank-bailout program.
8 to 13 million houses x average cost of house + future bailout costs + all other lost costs = out of control.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
They have a long term lease, that blows when the payment resets. Then they will walk, or re-mod? In 5 years we get to this all over again.
The only ETF's I am in on is Miners and Rare earths and Producers, as far as
& 
ETF's I am not in a one.....I would rather have it in my hand physically.
repot = what the permabulls will be doing with the dead green shoots in the spring.
Turbo wrote:
Second half recovery!
CalculatedRisk wrote:
This quarter maybe - for the bureaucrats & their client bankers that's probably all they care about. Pretend & extend long enough so this mistake too can be buried and from their perspective - hopefully forgotten.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Prolly shores up the banksters books though. And J6P prolly doesn't understand the ramifications until he sells, he's just relieved he gets to stay.
Not exactly a win-win....win-screwed?
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Shouldn't have an effect. No different than issuing a 60 year mortgage. I haven't seen any econometric study that determines switching to a bubble payment would be meaningful. It's negative equity, unemployment, capital appreciation, and then payment size.
Even for the people who went in with bad credit, improved their credit records, and then went to refinance in the future but before mortgage rates rise. Too much negative equity to ever catch up. Owners as a group will procrastinate, but they're not stupid
the credit score destruction will limit new and used car buyer pool for a long time....
I see lots of commercials for leasing now. Do you have to have a good credit score to lease?
"Stop using facts to make your case - it's pointless. Most of these cases are people who only looked at the teaser monthly rate to begin with."
LMAO! Partially true.
I think the psychology is a BIT different, at least the borrowers I had the unfortunate chance to deal with. They took those teaser rates because they just KNEW their house value will be going up and they would get fast equity.
Know the situation has changed. Don't forget, every month they will be getting a statement that shows the total balance of their loan. This will include the balloon amount. The total balance, what they would need to pay off the mortgage. They will compare that amount to the value they think their house is worth, which they will realize is much lower (if they don't realize it already).
When the time comes, they will walk away.
Remember, under HAMP, principal forebearance is the last step to lower payments when interest rate reductions aren't enough. These people are the really desperate, the most screwed. They won't be paying off those loans, ever.
josap, that is the problem with these kinds of modifications - they just kick the can down the road for certain debtowners.
It keeps supply off the market for now ... I think several commenters suggested that was the goal when the program was announced. they were probably right
best to all
They tack the deficit on to the end and pretend it isn't there.
With a 40 year calculation is may as well not be there, if you are
over 60, or, 50, or 40, depending how you stand, life-spanwise.
From what I understand, one pays a lower premium for ETF barbarous, than you would pay for the real deal, and you can stick it in 401k's.
Those seem to be the only advantages, in letting somebody you don't even know, have 100% complete control of your investment.
Ehp- thats why CR community is great..... we can disagree but essentially have a beer over it right here!
Subprime abs is dead still...620 or above to get bought at 100% or less LTV...Lenders are not buying bad paper and that market grew very rapidly last 2 years.....Dealers can't get that paper hung...their words not mine...
not saying they can't get lower scores into Kia, suzuki type price range..but that comes with lots of stips now..
OK, I take it back ... it doesn't help
If you mod out to 2015, that's not just going to extend the shit, it overlaps with CRE shit. So basically you're looking at 5 more years of near-depression conditions, minimum.
Oh, no, that's not in 5 years, that's at the END of the loan.
The ones I've seen anyhow.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
MS,
Your explanation doesn't indicate that you understand how ETFs work.
If you were to compare the liquidity of ETFs with comparable mutual funds, it might help. I don't hear anybody saying mutual funds aren't liquid. But they are not structually as liquid as ETFs, because mutual funds must be able to meet redemptions daily, whether or not can raise cash or sell stocks. ETF shares can be put back to the fund in-kind for stocks by APs. Those stocks then are as liquid as they are. The APs and arbs who work for them keep the market pretty efficient.
ETFs really are a lot older than you think. They evolved out of closed-end funds and unit trusts, which were big industries that handled hundreds of billions going back to the 70s. ETFs added a liquidity feature to closed-ends and UITs.
There are some fruitcake ideas in ETFs, like macro shares. But if you stick with the top four sponsors, Barclays, State Street, Vanguard and PowerShares, all ETFs are built on the same chassis. It's proven very reliable, efficient and liquid, over decades. Nothing in two huge bear markets has even produced a rattle and you'll have at least as much liquidity as you have in Fidelity or Vanguard mutual funds.
Traveler's checks were an updated version of the Knights Templar scheme,
Are we still blaming them as a convenience? I've heard of scapegoating...
CalculatedRisk wrote:
A loss deferred means no bonus left behind.
I blame the Hashshashins, and Karl Malden, not necessarily in that order.
Yes.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
yep, them and the Bush administration
yes...plus larger up front payment....but thiers an ass for every seat....
AKA assassin.
Diana Olick writes: Big Banks Accused of Short Sale Fraud - CNBC
fudge_hand
They're not effectively stupid. They responded to simple feedback. Anyone who bought a house made money in spades. Their strategies were popular because they were working. The same thing will work in reverse now, no one is going to become rich owning vs renting. It doesn't require them to think. Not everything is a free choice. Some will have to default/squat. Their friends hear about it, maybe 1 in 10 friends pre-emptively does the default squat. 2 for 2, and 20 friends hear about it this time. It's like a social virus. Has nothing to do with individual intelligence or morality, it's just what works
ghostfaceinvestah,
I agree with everything you said - over time. I've made the mistake of underestimating the stupidity of the average J6P in the past. I think many of the people getting the mods are making the same mistake thinking their homes will re-bubblize and they will be ok when the ballooon comes. As you said, "when the time comes"
There have been plenty of clunkers in the short history of ETFs:
But, on the whole, they make for good gambling fun.
The mod I did for a client was for a 40 year amortization with the balloon
at the end of 40 years. AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. He is in his 40s I
think. The average male lives to be 75-76. I told him to think about it as renting.
He likes the schools. first big repair, he's out of there.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Supply is already being kept off the market by banks who are restricting the number of foreclosures, no? I'd be shocked if it was possible to determine any positive effect of this program seeing as banks will simply hike the number of foreclosures they process in order to capture any higher prices that might result from a successful HAMP program.
At least that's my understanding, but I'm neither a banker/mortgage servicer nor a HAMPer.
Forebearance is just a means of lowering the payment, so in the short run it does "work" in kicking the can. But keeping people in houses with negative equity is a losing strategy.
What is the incentive to do major repairs on the house? Say you need a new 10,000 roof, or a new 5,000 furnace (just making those numbers up, I guess they cost around that). Are you going to make that repair, on a house where you are 100k underwater?
Nope, that may be the event that causes you to walk.
For underwater borrowers, HAMP is nothing more than a way to delay the inevitable, to play the system. You miss 12 months of payments, they lower your payment and tack those missed payments onto the balance, you eventually stop making the lower payments, it takes another 12 months to get rid of you, wham, you just got 2.5 years of housing and made 6-9 monthly payments.
The 'clueless' defense can't hold up.
I don't get it really. Hashshashins
It's like Reefer Madness, everybody that smokes the kind, wants to kill everybody.
But all the stoners I know, wouldn't harm a fly.
For the many who were responsible during the housing boom, I think a silent second is good news. The moral hazard of getting a massive cram down today so that if the housing market does go up in, say, the next 5 years (which I doubt) where that person then makes a bunch of money on the sale after the cram down?
Of course, I do think people WILL ruthlessly walk away - especially since businesses are showing the way with CRE. What is good for the goose. . .
I wasn't blaming them at all... I find the history between the Templars, King of Jerusalem, St. Catherine's Monastery, and all the other assorted players very intriguing. The Holy Land was sort of like the Las Vegas of the times.
"first big repair, he's out of there. "
EXACTLY!!!!!!
.. are we turning Japanese yet? - D
Exactly. Five more years of recession makes us Japan. Still alive, but slowly becoming zombies...
rich-
I know how they work. I think you are confusing functioning in a liquid market as opposed to an illiquid one. I have no argument on the fundamental operation of them in a market that functions properly. My argument, over many discussions, has always been with the performance in an illiquid market-that can be exacerbated by the actual product it tracks.
Ciao
MS
greenchutes wrote:
Shhhh, as far as my wife is concerned I'm investing.
cclt
well not while a contraction is still ongoing, it's just too risky with unstable income/housing/unemployment, but as we get past this... if someone can reliably make a profit on these loans, they will be made. Creditors can't afford to blackball debtors. I don't ever expect it to be like the boom years for a long while, but I think it's hogwash that FICO won't normalize to the population
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I guess I should have said unwise. Wisdom and intelligence are not the same thing. Hence, Sir Isaac Newton getting caught in a bubble (South Sea company I think?).
CalculatedRisk wrote:
damn, I really liked her
too bad she'll be gone soon
volker the viking wrote:
......C'mon, you old piece of meat. Everyone knows Bush was at fault. He was even involved in the Lindberg kidnapping, the Titanic engineering concern, and the last global ice age as well.
ETF solution:
What we need is an exact list of specific unknown problems we might encounter.
C reports before the bell on Tuesday....it could be some fun in those etf thingymejiggers...since 17 out of last 19 mondays were positive...thank you MLK!
Volker the viking, Olick is leaving CNBC? Or are you just guessing because she is doing some real reporting?
best wishes
I actually have some sympathy for the 2nd lien holders.
Sorry I just do. Being wiped out just isn't fun, and somebody somewhere
is willing to give them some money. I just wonder if it ever actually gets to
the 2nd lien holder, or it is just a bribe to the decision maker.
I know it is illegal and all, but losing 100k, 200k is hard and not even getting
2cents on the dollar. . . Jump on me.
Sigh.
... zing
This is actually a sucessful program. Compared to the earlier ones. I think the Bush one only helped 512 families.
You have to work your way up to ex-expert status.
The Vorpal Rabbit of Caerbannog should be at the top of the list. Those things and Tribbles can disrupt an EFT like nobody's business. So I've heard.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
of course Clinton has to fess up for everything else
old piece of meat--been called a lot of things in my time...
"I think many of the people getting the mods are making the same mistake thinking their homes will re-bubblize and they will be ok when the ballooon comes."
I agree with that, the reality of the situation will sink in slowly, especially for the more dense. Some believe house prices will rebound like the stock market.
That is not going to happen in the absence of the re-introduction of "affordability" products like Option ARMs and 2-28s, most of which have been outlawed by various States.
As house prices stagnate, or slowly drift downward and stagnate, or climb slowly then drift back down, etc., reality is going to sink in, and people will finally make the rational decision to default.
Surprisingly, people are willing to do short sales, even if it kills their credit. They feel some sense of honor of not abandoning their property, and some sense of closure on the situation, which a foreclosure doesn't give them. We need to encourage more short sales, it really is the only solution.
it's the unknown unknowns that are so, er, inscrutable
lawyerliz wrote:
Hope springs eternal, I guess. Though his only "hope" would be hyperinflation in the near future.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
When I bought both SKF and SRS the Dow was 33 points higher than where it is now, but the prices of each are 8 and 15 cents lower today, respectively. Not that I care, it's only a few cents, but they both appear to be lagging somewhat over the past few days.
We need a liberty icon first. We have
and 
for kicking
purposes.
LL - sorry to hear about your security guard's family. In my past life as a Floridian the Haitians I got to know were among the hardest workers I have ever met. I can hear one of the guys now, in my head, "Big trouble, boss; big trouble!"
I hit the Red Cross website today; now that MasterCard, Visa, and AmEx have waived the "swipe fees" I hope a lot of people put a penny in the jar for Haiti.
lawyerliz wrote:
Not me. They wanted to chase yield,...
CalculatedRisk wrote:
what would a reasonable person think? she's gotta go
lawyerliz wrote:
Repairs can be deferred too - believe me.
Once the zombification process sets in, with full corporate propaganda, 50 - 100 year mortgages will start to look normal. Long mortgages already exist in some countries. Or, you could get "leasehold" rather than "freehold" like in the UK.
actually I'm thinking of becoming a credit fixer since I lost job....I can fast track line items in credit reports and bump score up 10 to 100 pts in 2 days....
might be the first honest credit consultant
it just might work...
the spread on abs of which you speak would shock the sheeple with bad credit..they've been getting 8-10% loans with repos, bk discharged etc for last couple years...that's not coming back...it will be back to 19%-22% on those credit profiles....
Credit filtering is en vogue again...
lawyerliz wrote:
Maybe a drunk eagle? I'd avoid national flags, as I can just imagine the shenanigans that would result.
Though his only "hope" would be hyperinflation in the near future.
Or that hope of the hopeless, the lottery.
lawyerliz
Does it make a difference who that 2nd lien holder is? Is it the same thing for a billionaire to lose $100k of savings as it is for a single mother?
It doesn't really matter who the actual person wiped out is, because they'll transmit that $100k loss on to other parts of their investment portfolio. All financial products end up in one big pool, and all that matters is one's relative share of that pool.
A friend runs a sight-seeing business and his clients a few days ago, were a couple doing a bucket list tour, she's not quite 40, all cancer treatments have been stopped...
Don't forget to get out there and live a little, folks.
This is no drill.
+1
$75B program with 66,465 permanent modifications.
That's $1,128,000 per permanent mod.
from the article
"I personally heard a recording of a phone conversation between a short sale real estate agent and a second lien lender, during which the second lien lender clearly asked for cash outside of the settlement and threatened to kill the deal without it."
WOW!!!!
Now we need to add RESPA violations to the many laws the banks are breaking.
I know, I know.
Some of them left what they thought was a real equity cushion.
I just feel sorry for them.. They don't deserve it, but I do.
You know I tell settling clients that the first settlement offer can be
quite low, but it has to be above the slap in the face level. Saving face
you know. These settlements are all well below the slap in the face
level.
Proof positive that there is no normal.
I'm scouting for the ideal serfdom opportunity. Someone rich, powerful, not too grumpy, and definitely not a micromanager.
Liz,
In many cases I believe, the 2nds made the risky mortgage work where the down payment was covered that way.
I can't count the number of times I have seen people say:
"I bought my home in ____, sure I lost money but I'm fine with paying that. At least flat is better than the falling that was happening earlier"
Denial, Anger, Bargaining (you are here), next stops: Depression, Acceptance
pavel.chichikov wrote:
I especially get a kick out of those people who tell me they only buy lottery tickets for the really big jackpots. There's little hope for anyone who fails that test of rationality.
"Not me. They wanted to chase yield,... "
Me neither. No free lunch.
Unless you are TBTF.
noob goldberg wrote:
They're only supposed to track daily. Given their construction they're certain to lag over time.
I've heard of owners asking for cash under the table (since they are going to get nothing), but big bank 2nd lien holders?
Short sale fraud is going to be a big story this year
best wishes
Liz,
Plus there was an advertising push from the banks for borrowers to get 2nd's to pay off credit cards, do home improvements, take vacations, go back to school, etc.
Helocs too.
Yalt wrote:
Oh indeed, I recognize that; it was also the reason I was intending on closing those positions this morning, until I saw the futures.
Where was the risk management?
I'm scouting for the ideal serfdom opportunity. - O
Serfs had rights. Under capitalism, you have debt. And somebody owns that debt. Guess what else they own.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
once again, you master the understatement
so glad to be here so glad volker tolerated
volker still have multi cupped sling shot thingie for sale cheap
3 % increase a year for 40 years and he's fine. Not a lottery, if
he needs to do no repairs on the house!!! Or, if we have a nice juicy
hurricane and he gets to fix it up that way
merchants of fear wrote:
They did a fine job of stowing away the risk analysts for takeoff, profits exploded and you didn't hear one peep out of those cost centers
so true JD...
YouTube - Shawshank Redemption " The message of Hope"
Consumers can say they were clueless since the banks were clueless. Hoowoodanode?
Vote, vote, vote for BFF!!!
Bob Dobbs wrote:
That's what the bankers are hoping for too - sort of - they want the real value of their loans outstanding to remain fairly stable & not be inflated away too much but the valuation of the assets backing those loans to inflate back up so CLTVs fall back below the red line.
Good luck with that. They either write off the nominal valuation of the loans TODAY to match the current collateral valuations OR they accept the real inflation adjusted NPV of their book of loans is impaired going forward - more impaired than they have admitted. Chose A or B guys.
Those little banks in my neighborhood were always trying to loan me money on my home, so i'm glad we moved our money from the big bank, to the much safer little bank, where they never gave out HELOC loans.
Funny you should mention this. One of my dad's aides in Iraq, got out when he got back to the States and he and his wife became a butler/cook team for a very rich couple with no kids. They make very good money flying all over the world preparing all the details for their employers. It really is a management position. They handle pretty much most of the financing and travel arrangements in question. They love it. Great pay, endless travel...and the work isn't that demanding in the scheme of things since the rich couple likes privacy and doesn't like being waited on hand and foot. Imagine going from retired Major to Butler....
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
The second lien holders are defrauding the first lien holders. It's a little tough for me to get upset about that.
When you roll around with the pigs in the sty, you're gonna get a little dirty.
Laws and ethics aside, I can see where a recon of the second could be worth a few thousand bucks to a buyer.
If you drive a car and know the brakes aren't working...are you clueless or wreckless?
Sometimes the 1st lienholders are the 2nd lien holders.
Guess what else they own.
Pretty soon a whole lotta nothing.
merchants of fear wrote:
headed for a sudden stop, that's for sure
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I doubt that. It was a very good piece by Diana Olick, but I doubt it will go anywhere. "They" will kill it.
Okay, how long before this lawsuit?
Bank forecloses but doesn't evict the borrower. Borrower throws party, drunken guest has a fatal car accident. Victim's next of kin sue bank.
merchants of fear wrote:
Well, I'd imagine you wouldn't be wreckless for too long, no matter what your state of mind.
It depends if the financial spike-strip has taken out the tires, after a high speed trading chase, no?
"The second lien holders are defrauding the first lien holders. "
The second lien holders are blackmailing the borrowers.
sportsfan wrote:
if we let them
Let's all get some flashlights and go hunting for more on this.
The govt. is clueless too not knowing the relation between unsustainable debt/spending and 'financial/currency crisis'...
WHO took the brakes off the car?
Is the 'mechanic' clueless?
Harassment suit against JPMorgan Chase will survive Bianca Kuros, who died in Queens fire - NYPOST.com
not in the article but the fire was arson, she was the only one who died, and the fire department response was delayed by an anonymous pay phone call directing them to the wrong address
so 2 days before trial, she was murdered
just saying...
Good BFF!
These bank regulators are looking better all the time, so if anyone has other hotties to add, please keep me in mind!!
Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission | Commissioner Heather H. Murren, CFA
Also see: Dixie Pixs Fan Club - Home
Pretty soon a whole lotta nothing. - O
What? Are you in trouble? Concerned scone is concerned.
Fidelity National Financial - Fraud Insights eNewsletter - Volume 2 Issue 1
Come on guys, you know the car is at the scrap heap. Little kids play in it pretending it is still the fastest racing car...a pleasant dream for sure, but Chitty Chitty Bang Bang is dead and done.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
The borrower's position is hopeless in any event. The borrower took the money when the second was created. If the borrower wants to insure that the second lien holder receives nothing, the process would be a foreclosure, not a short sale.
I hear they have open Frauditions off Broadway.
sportsfan wrote:
Also - is it actually 'fraud' if everyone is in on the deal and gets a piece [except uncle sugar who just wants it to go away at whatever cost it takes to just-make-it-stop]? It is almost 'constitutional corruption' - that entrenched - isn't it?
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
not correct.
if they are able to keep current on their mortgage payments they at least give themselves the chance that if there is a housing price recovery that they will be able to recover their down payment. While there are many on this blog who don't think that will ever happen and we will never see the housing price levels of 2005/2006- I suspect that is not the opinion of the vast majority of people including those who except to see continued downward pressure on prices in the short term.
Being foreclosed out now will force most of these borrowers to remain renters until they can save enough money for a down payment. If in fact housing prices recover (and absent another bout of lender delusion) most of these folks will probably remain renters for the rest of their lives as the appreciation in home prices (and the concomitant down payment) increase faster than their ability to save for the down payment.
Of course for those folks who have the ability to make the down payment on a new home - you would be right - but that is a tiny sliver of the population we are speaking of.
dum luk wrote:
I realize I'm sounding more cynical than normal on this, but I'll believe that when I see it.
[rant] Where the hell are all the prosecutions for all the frauds we've witnessed over the last 6 to 8 years? [/rant]
No trabajo-no mortgage payment
Just being lighthearted.
But in this day and age, who isn't vulnerable?
Isn't the fraud somewhere in trying to keep the unsustainable inflated values up...and in suspicious regulatory absence and hit-the-traget valuations, pumping them in the first place?
dryfly wrote:
That thought just made me shiver. It's always been my fear that the interventions of the past 18 months, as well as the 'see no evil' approach of the government, would significantly distort the system and make future recoveries less likely. But if regular financial exchanges like this begin including a larger element of corruption we're on our way to a very unpleasant destination.
Ask Mizaru, Kikazaru, and Iwazaru what they did with their brother Shizaru...
crazyv
if is a pretty big word in the context of shadow inventory, the amount of mortgages that could slide into the negative equity death zone where owners behave like investors, shrinking households, and the price:rent ratios
the only way most of these borrowers end up with anything, is through negative real interest rates and that is a separate issue from the housing market
there are a lot of economic issues that were never resolved. like the excess housing from the S&L bubble. Or the spread of unemployment for 16-25 year olds vs other age brackets after the early 80s recession. the increasing duration of unemployment. Or the negative returns on average post-secondary costs. Or the government fiscal position.
Close at -87
Total G7 government budget deficitis for 2010: $4 Trillion
Total global savings for 2010: $5 Trillion
Normal ratio of public to total borrowing: 20%
Given that the financial system is still deleveraging and will be withdrawing credit in 2010, anyone else spot a wee little problem brewing? Ben's going to have to buy more helicopters. A lot more helicopters.
silver testing support
Live Market Quotes
Turbo wrote:
We were talking about zepplins here a few days ago - zepplins have MASSIVE air lift capacity. Just sayin'...
venezuela shook a little today...lots of activity...something bad is brewing....
Latest Earthquakes M5.0+ in the World - Past 7 days
If we get a big earthquake in the city...it was nice knowing ya all....I'm 30 ft above ground, with garage bottom floor and a hill right behind me with homes ready to tumble...great view though....
If we get a bunch of rain this year in calif, I look for a big one to hit....weight disparity...
To look at this 'crisis' intelligently, the timeline should at least go back to the late 1990's to thoroughly scrutinize and dissect the Greenspan 'no rules' Era. I left out 'discretion' which should maybe be labeled 'indiscretion' or 'lack of good judgement'.
The average duration of homeownership is about 5 years.
Seasonality of Moves and The Duration and Tenure of Residence: 1996
Given this housing crisis, no doubt it will be a bit longer (which is a crisis in itself - the impact on labor mobility, which of course the government is totally ignoring). Call it 7 years.
So on average, we would need to see house prices return to 2006 levels by 2013?
We all have our opinions, and here is mine - no way in hell that happens. Unless you believe Option ARMs are coming back.
Furthermore, we need house prices to exceed 2006 levels, as the missed interest payments are added to the loan balance under HAMP modifications, they are not just written off.
As for your arguments about people saving for a down payment, clearly you have not heard of the FHA. Trust me, the government will develop a program for people affected by this housing crisis to obtain credit through the government to buy another house.
But in this day and age, who isn't vulnerable? - O
Banksters?
take it all the way back to the end of WWII
always just one more thing
Everything put into place by FDR, functioned fine until 1971.
Closing the Gold Window was the route of all evil, and everything since then is a repercussion of a world's money backed only by fiat, nothing more.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
FTFY, YWIA
EHP,
Yeah...the current 'crisis' timeline' should or could go back to the S&L crisis...this crisis commission 'investigation' could be expanded from its narrow scope...to understand how credit cycles and deflation are caused by monetary & political/economic policies that are connected.
Hate to be off topic, but who is Greene of the FCIC? Anyone know?
We actually have earthquake ins. on our home here in NH. There is a fault line somewhere nearby. Miniscule chance, but the cost is really really low too, so why not?
Although someone else might have already referred to the article, Diana Olick posted an interesting one today on apparent short sale fraud. Big Banks Accused of Short Sale Fraud - CNBC
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
such as the Panic of 1873
Awww heck...take it back to 1913. Focus. The central bank has blown it. Again. It's not working out.
Wow. Maybe I should start selling flood insurance in Phoenix. Why couldn't you do something more economically productive with the money, like blow it at a strip club?
According to the Commission’s press release, Greene “has led complex investigations and prosecuted
major cases in the fields of antitrust, consumer protection, energy and corporate responsibility, among
others. He coordinated the multi-state antitrust remedies against Microsoft..
However, is he still on the commission???
Never mind:
Perhaps this has piqued the interest of the commission's chief counsel, Tom Greene, a senior prosecutor under then-California Attorney General Bill Lockyer
Read more: Financial crisis commission to grill Wall St.
I just didn't see him here and wondered why he hired Dixie (was it just for ....)?
Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission | About the Commission
The 'independence' is not working out. That's easy to see. The 'mechanic' need to be laid off. His tools screwed up the engine.
Maybe he was trying to win Dixie?
volker the viking wrote:
which, among other things, brought us the Trade Dollar. I wonder if today's panic will cause some countries to demand real value in lieu of mere paper dollars
Trade Dollar (United States coin) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
That's the trouble with "bargains." You end up buying stuff you don't really need, because it's "such a deal." This is why I limit my thrift shop habit. It's the blind spot of the frugal.
Outsider wrote:
We actually have earthquake ins. on our home here in NH. There is a fault line somewhere nearby. Miniscule chance, but the cost is really really low too, so why not?
Perhaps also due to your relative close proximity to the Charlevoix Seismic Zone in Quebec?
sportsfan wrote:
They could quit pegging to the dollar any time they decided they want 'value'. They haven't closed the forex last I looked.
JD
there were problems before the 70s
first of all, the loose money that led to stagflation in the 70s
people couldn't accept that the high-life post-wwii was temporary due to decline of global rebuilding, decline of demographic boost, increasing competition for market share
tried the looting of foreign countries to supplement the domestic economy
the details of how it is done is less important than who is benefiting at the expense of whom, no matter what anyone starts out with they will try to add to that with whatever incremental tools are available
people have never accepted a 3% return when they can take a 5% return instead, but we can't all be above average
Imagine that, people didn't want silver dollars that contained 10% more silver, than the Morgan or Peace dollars in circulation...
Gives you an idea of just how much silver was found, in the new world.
sportsfan wrote:
it's in the works
they're Fabians, Ben did a brief mention of that possibility, China is making noise echoed by Russia, we'll see if the rhetoric continues to grow
Hey the public can't fire the monetary mechanic...he has 'tenure' of sorts...anyway the public is being trained to blame some friggin nameless squid...so the process can be mystified and the administrators remain behind the curtain or out of the 'Crisis' spotlight. The 'clueless' argument will be repeated until it's 'common knowledge'.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
What about the other hottie?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
And the more skewed a distribution is, the greater number that will be below average...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I think you spelt winn incorrectly. But I'm Canadian, so I'm probably mistaken.
ghost-
From Figure 4 of your reference, the average time a homeowner stays in the same home is about 10 years.
EHP
It was the beginning of the end of financial transparency.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
1964-65... guns & butter... Viet Nam War and 'War on Poverty'. The gold window was doomed from that time onward. The question now - is where do they [we] go from here. The forex & comex will force them to make tough decisions eventually. And not making any decision is a decision.
noob goldberg wrote:
You are so Canadian, noob - last time I was in Calgary even the panhandlers were polite. But you are correct, it is Winn.
Yup, much as LBJ2 (W) doomed the greenback again. Amazing how much damage he managed to do relative to where the dollar was when he was inaugurated in '01. And we've only just begun!
Every 'crisis' brings more political/economic controls and concentration of Capital...it's an accumulation process...never let a 'crisis' go to waste! The 'crisis' is getting worse right now! How can a commission keep up? Always looking back. Missing what's happening now.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
There have been so many times that I thought something in this sorry meltdown would be a huge story and nothing. I don't this particular story ranks anywhere near the top of the fraud heap, but I've lost confidence to guessing what story will have legs.
A lot of times a story that breaks big is a story that's been reported at least several times but for whatever reason didn't light up until then.
merchants of fear wrote:
as well as what's coming your way
dryfly
if final demand doesn't magically arrive to save the exporters before their bubbles run out, then one end-game I see is liquidating foreign exchange reserves to absorb the losses at home, and then move on from there
Japan could cut their debt in half by liquidating reserves for example, you just need to be sure that
a) those reserves aren't needed for a long time once you liquidate them
b) the do-nothing alternative is pretty grim, because shifting from surplus to balanced trade and fixed capital investment to consumption will be a rocky road
the liquidation would cause the currency to appreciate, the financial problem disclosures and uncertainty would counteract
inflation might be managed by adjusting the government set key prices, but there is a risk of high real interest rates to exacerbate debt problems and bubble fallout
Last time I was up over in the Gulag Hockeypelago in Calgary, it was winter-time, and the panhandlers had to be world class to ply their trade. I remember almost freezing to death, walking from the parking lot to the mall, one day.
Just imagine how wealthy we'd be if all these goldbugs were investing in productive assets.
{j/k}
energyecon wrote:
I think it's a bred into us somehow. I wanted my son to be polite so we taught him to say 'please' and 'thank you', which he's been fairly consistent on since he was about 18 months old. However, a year later I wonder if we've gone to far, when I hear him apologizing to his toys while he's playing by himself, or to inanimate objects like the TV cabinet when he accidentally hits them.
noob goldberg wrote:
He's just Being One With the World.
That's a good thing.
noob goldberg wrote:
LOL! I know what you mean, with a five year old - don't want to civilize all the backbone out them...
sportsfan wrote:
as long as her son isn't 37 years old
OT: American families were squeezed last year as their inflation-adjusted weekly wages fell 1.6 percent — the sharpest drop since 1990 — even as consumer prices rose only modestly.
Consumers are squeezed as inflation outpaces wages - Yahoo! News
Too much debt is a weapon of financial destruction. What is the aggregate global debt and does it need to be downgraded? The Third World is getting larger.
the top on "sell the news" might be getting close
Junk bond sales top record in latest week: Thomson - MarketWatch
Here's a weird bit of doom for you. There's a nationwide shortage of certain thyroid medications, the natural kind that are made from USP dessicated pig thyroid. The companies that make this stuff, such as Armour, won't say why there is a shortage. However, I just had a batch made up for me at a compounding pharmacy, so it can't be a shortage of raw material. Are the smaller pharma companies using credit to finance their production runs? Are they in trouble?
noob goldberg
Don Martin: Ottawa defends Canada's protectionist skies - Full Comment
it's all Ottawa's fault airfare is expensive in Canada, trying to keep the good western man down!
Can Heather Murren save us?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
All roads from here are rocky and potholed. If they liquidate reserves they'll quickly find there is no there there [selling assets at well below what they paid in their own currencies]... so much so as to almost consider the reserves worthless [not worth less] now.
The only out - world wide - is a return to balanced trade & for some [primarily in the west] a lower standard of living as measured in the consumption of real goods & immediate services consumed. Again - the comex & forex will help get us there faster less painfully than anything gov'ts or central banks can do and that includes re-establishing 'metal standards'. The comex & forex in effect do that now [we just don't like what they tell us]. Markets work IF you really listen to the signals the prices tell you.
I thought the IMF recomended 6 months foreign currency reserves?
noob goldberg wrote:
The alternative: in the college town I live in, every retail clerk and worker under the age of 25 (most of them), hands you your change with a hearty "There ya go!" at the end of a sale. Rarely a "thank you;" as if saying the word would somehow damage their self-esteem.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
In a part of Newark NJ, "sir" has been replaced with "boss". When you get gas (you can't pump your own gas in NJ), the attendent asks, "What can I do for you boss", then "that'll be 20 dollars, boss".
I actually grew to like it.
What I think it will take is for the banks to pull that trick on someone with the time and resources to take it to court. Suppose the injuried party has the savvy to make the whole situation very public and they lose in court. What do you think the public backlash will be?
People are getting pretty crispy out there. Let's strike a flint and see
Bob Dobbs wrote:
the language evolves
it's the new thank you
and when you and I are dribbling into our diapers, that's what we'll hear as they roll us over
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
my comment was based on the statement that borrowers **have no more **incentive after the modification than before. Clearly if they believed in a certain set of assumptions the modification gives them more of a reason to stay current than they had without the modification. The fact that you or anybody else might not believe in those assumptions is irrelevant with regard to the particular borrowers incentives to stay current.
Jack Kent Cooke built the Fabulous Forum in the City of Angles, and thought the Kings would be a hit, because over a million lapsed Canadians lived there, and when fans stayed away in droves, he said...
Yeah...the only way out is a lowered standard of living for almost everyone...or ThirdWorld-ification...especially if we stick with the central banking apparatus and its dangerous credit bubble 'fractional reserves' and 'fractional' lending cycles...need a new commission maybe...to really look into things as they have been and are...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I'm lucky to be in between the Toronto and Montreal hubs, where I have no shortage of choices for international flights if I want them. But if I was living in Winnipeg, or Edmonton, or even Vancouver I'd be pretty pissed. Air Canada is a private company, and should be treated as such, but I do recognize that they provide daily schedules to places that other airlines wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole, like Inuvik, or Churchill. I don't know the necessary compromise, but restricting international carriers from landing in Canada does not seem to be productive.
JPMorgan investment bankers to see record payday - Yahoo! Finance
These are Permanent Mods until they aren't.....
The double dip might actually be into and out of the masses assets.
scone wrote:
Do you use it? why and how does it compare to levothyroxine?
thanks
need help
somebody tell me if a retirement system has a funded ratio of 59.1%
is this okay, or a warning signal?
more details after
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/blog/RetailSalesDec2009.pdf
PeeDeeEff alert!
tg wrote:
Much tastier-
Posted without comment.
Jesse's Café Américain: Wall Street Thinks You Are a Jealous Little Malcontent
'One currency' isn't the answer if we have the same 'independent' centralized administrators.
sportsfan wrote:
Well, he can still be a giant destructive pain in the ass; he's just polite about it. Which makes punishing him even harder
steelhead wrote:
posting this renders statement false, redundant at best
dryfly
it doesn't matter if there is no one to buy the EUR or USD or whatever assets
they can recapitalize their banks with printed money and cause no inflation
just so long as their currency doesn't depreciate to cause imported inflation
once they do that, I imagine they'll be raising all kinds of formal tariffs on imports
the WTO would be in disarray, and it will be neo-colonial like in signing up client states that will trade resources for imports
I'm not sure China will be terribly successful, the key thing the US did was to pick a few regional middlepowers like Japan or Germany to support/give advantages so that they can be a strong local partner to manage the corruption/influence on neighbouring countries
They're in favour now with many developing countries, but they have weaknesses. Construction projects using Chinese labour to name one feature. Ability to be #1 and maintain contracts through their long lifetimes is still unproven (what if there is a new government and they never got their share?). How they handle associated deaths or environmental damage. Heck, what happens when China has to compete with the west for imports to Africa (markups are high, mainly due to poor logistics but those are improving and its one of the final frontiers in an economy starved for growth it is a prime target).
Burn the Banks - - Lynch the Banksters
Jesse's Café Américain: Wall Street Thinks You Are a Jealous Little Malcontent
Mish is asking his peoples to go out and buy rubber stamps with messages on em', and an ink pad, so you can tell people you're as mad as hell, and not gonna take it anymore, when you send your payment for bills, via snail mail.
That's a bit much...
Cinco-X wrote:
Taste's like
Wife is on levo. Half the time we are wondering it's the meds or the disease.
and that, ladies and germs, is how you post without comment
EHP, I think you assume a bit too much about the bullet-proof nature of the USD/EUR. A crisis in currency confidence in the domestic theater could happen very quickly, especially in the states.
Globalization has been a failure for many especially in the current deflation 'crisis'...less centralization may be the prescription for failed centralization monetary and economic policies.
Air Canada has to base its HQ in Montreal. It's in the corporate charter Ottawa wrote. Ditto for CN Rail. Ditto for Bell I believe as well.
Should be changed to read:
I'm lucky to be in between the Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres, where I have no shortage of choices for international fights
noob goldberg wrote:
We're so far removed from that period (and not yet grandparents) that we're going to go see Baby (the musical) next month and, hopefully, not find ourselves portrayed by one of the couples.
Baby (musical) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
lets try this again.
you made a categorical statement - that the borrower has no more incentive.
We can all have our own opinions about the future course of housing prices. Since I am disputing your categorical statement all I have to do to disprove your statement is to show one set of circumstances in which your statement is not applicable. If you would like to change your statement to "borrowers that share you opinion of future home values have no more incentive " then I have no problem.
BTW looking at an individual borrowers duration based on the average duration is completely meaningless. If i planned on staying in the home for 15 years what relevance does average duration have on my incentive to make my payments or not. Also an average duration includes numbers above and below the average.
I will grant your comment about the FHA and 3% down. Although I am not so sanguine as you are that those levels will continue.
merchants of fear wrote:
No - not 'thirdworldification'. I've seen that - we aren't talking rocks piled up for walls & loose sheet metal roofs. Open sewers. Saw it in the squatter villages near Juarez & Reynosa & Piedras Negras - etc. I'm talking homes more like our parents [or even some of us] lived in the 1950s - raised an average of what 2.5 kids in them too - 1500 square foot shoe boxes. Fewer electronics, appliances that were expected to last 20 years [and be maintainable]. One car per family - two at tops. Vacations were to the local lake or beach not around the globe.
And of course jobs just barely good enough to support that with one person working full time if they all counted pennies. A two income couple had more money for sure - but not necessarily a 'better life'. We've let ourselves be 'priced' out of all that w/ debt & merchantilism.
That is a much lower 'standard of living' in terms of per capita consumption but certainly NOT 'thirdworldification'.
Narcissists; the woods are full of them. Especially the wooden tables in boardrooms. Always charming, always ruthless, always self-centered -- and always going Captain Queeg and blaming everybody but themselves when things come apart.
merchants of fear wrote:
Exactly - I want more options not fewer - thank you.
Tangentially to that discussion, it is interesting to watch the total employment # go down as the entry of women in the workforce is a given.
Are you serious dum luk...are you with that funny business and pseudo- rabble rousing AJ crowd who are CONtributing to the debate?
volker the viking wrote:
couldn't hep myself...but that link is a must read!
Outsider wrote:
not so many years ago there was an earthquake on the other side of lake champlain. In Burlington it sound like a freight train coming through. I was very glad I had earthquake insurance and even gladder that I had no damage. But as you quite correctly said the insurance is cheap and people are silly not to get it. The premium paid will not change most peoples lives one bit - but the loss could wipe most people out.
Opex day and wack a bear hasn't started yet? 1.5 hrs to go, when do the bear whips come out?
greenchutes
I don't assume they're bullet proof. I assume the US and Europe will still be important to international trade. That they will have some form of currency. That their value will be relative to other currencies. We didn't go into crisis with a sustainable equilibrium
Jd-
I thought the idea of stamping "end the fed" on the back of 1-20$ bills was a great idea...
someone men'd there that the fed has been debasing the note anyways so who cares if you provide some updated art to the plate....
Can I get a black plate change for $9.00 alex?
AJ ?
dryfly,
Sounds good...the 1950 and 60's...Ozzie & Harriet and Leave It to Beaver...still need some credit to make it work and cities & infrastructure that aren't destroyed by deflation and govt. insolvencies...destroyed by the bubble/bust that is...
sdtfs wrote:
I got an idear! Lets go and remove all home pur-chaser's skin from the game! It'll be fun, an' if'n they get foreclosed, we get a hunk o' the equity. HOME PRICES NEVER GO DOWN! We can't loose!
International trade and the rule of law go hand in hand, can't have one without the other.
Police are being let go from their jobs, but luckily there are several hundred million guns in the hands of the polloi loco, to play kangaroo court, if need be.
apple jacks, Andrew Jackson, Anti Jam, Aunt Jemima ?
again, about state retirement systems with a 59.1% funded level
is this bad?
dl,
Those are 'patriot' type sites that get citizens riled up...to do something stupid maybe...the comments are all over the place asking for you know outrageous reactions...the debate gets irrational and emotional rather than 'rational'...
merchants of fear wrote:
Those were as mythical as John Galt. But there was LESS CONSUMPTION and a higher ratio of production domestically to what we consumed domestically - that is what needs to return... not necessarily gals in a-line skirts and guys in cardigans a la Ward & June. Forex & comex lead the way if we follow.