Distressed Sales: Sacramento as an Example
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 01/11/2010 - 1:57pm (330 comments)
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Nemo????
By a hair
"1. first time home buyers using government-insured FHA loans 2. investors paying cash,"
Or 3. fraudulent flippers using FHA loans and tax incentives for no money down loans.
(I'll take #3).
O/T
I was about to make a post about new bond and stock issuance. For the markets to serve a purpose and pay their overhead costs, they need new issuance. That new issuance in a sideways-value market adds pressure for prices to fall and that the tipping point for a debt-deflation scenario would be a positive growth number and not the casually implied zero percent growth.
(links, FRB: New Security Issues, State and Local Governments, December 2009, FRB: Federal Reserve Board: Error Page
However what ended up interesting me is are the Federal Reserve's selected statistics on the stock market which they started carrying on their website not too long ago.
FRB: Stock Market, Selected Statistics, November 2009
Margin credit at broker-dealers is up 27.4% from Feb 2009 to Sep 2009.
September 2009 you say? Sounds like years ago!
You would be right. Some slack-ass at the Federal Reserve just re-issued the November 2009 report as the December 2009 report
I was hoping a more recent report would have been out, but suffice it to say that increase in margin credit resolves the lack of traditional fund inflows with the great rally of 2009. If anyone knows Biderman of TrimTabs, whose flow of funds data I loved until they stopped posting the monthly figures in press releases, maybe pass word to him that his data is correct but that direct government purchasing is probably not the answer he's looking for?
I wonder what percentage of the Sacto economy state and local government is? And how much rents will drop as a result of these employers cutting back on payrolls.
Liquidating firms claim billions in U.S. stimulus
| Reuters
The U.S. government has provided more than $1 trillion of support to financial companies in a bid to keep credit flowing to the U.S. economy.
But a new law may give billions of dollars to bankrupt financial companies that will never make another loan. Instead of allowing lenders to keep credit flowing, these subsidies could mainly help hedge funds that buy distressed debt and equity.
25% dumb, and 25% dumberer
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I just watched the video someone posted. I thought he was looking for a lot more money than ~ $40 billion.
don't let me ruin a good thread, back on topic...
sacramento... the real housewives of orange county was on with an episode dated to 2006... everyone was in real estate or insurance, I laughed out loud when one proudly declared she got a hot-shot job at countrywide after being unemployed for a while
Dude, I had to LIVE there two years. You would have killed yourself.
I think China is now center stage here. There's a lot of hot money going there.
Just within the past few days China instituted a rule against the influx of hot money.
Russia did also, IIRC, just a week or so ago.
GDD9000 wrote:
Not if it is no money down. Unlimited upside (theoretically), zero downside.
http://www.lpsvcs.com/NewsRoom/Pages/20100111.aspx
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Jan. 11, 2010 – The December Mortgage Monitor report, released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. (NYSE: LPS), a leading provider of mortgage performance data and analytics, showed that one in every 7.5 homeowners in the United States is either behind on mortgage payments or in foreclosure. The December 2009 Mortgage Monitor report is an in-depth summary of mortgage industry performance indicators based on data collected as of November 30, 2009.
Total delinquencies, excluding foreclosures, increased to a record high 9.97 percent, representing a month-over-month increase of 5.46 percent and a year-over-year increase of 21.29 percent. Loans rolling to a more delinquent status totaled 5.01 percent compared to 1.52 percent of loans that improved. Of loans that were current in December 2008, 4.37 percent were either 60 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure by the end of November 2009, a rate higher than any other year for the same period.
Foreclosure inventories also continued to climb to new highs with November’s foreclosure rate at 3.19% – a month-over-month increase of 1.46 percent and a year-over-year increase of 81.41 percent. Compared to 2005 levels, foreclosure inventories across all loans are now nearly seven times higher, while jumbo loan foreclosure inventories are nearly 100 times more than levels four years ago.
Foreclosure starts continued to decline as a result of loss mitigation efforts like the federal government’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) and elevated delinquent loan volumes. The reduction in foreclosure starts, combined with the steady increase in the number of seriously delinquent loans, has resulted in an ever-growing “shadow” inventory of troubled properties.
Other key results from LPS’ December Mortgage Monitor include:
Total U.S. loan delinquency rate: 10.0 percent
Total U.S. foreclosure inventory rate: 3.2 percent
Total U.S. non-current* loan rate: 13.2 percent
States with most non-current* loans: Florida, Nevada, Mississippi, Arizona, Georgia, California, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Illinois
States with fewest non-current* loans: North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, Vermont, Colorado, Oregon and Iowa
*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.
**Totals based on LPS Applied Analytics’ loan-level database of mortgage assets.
LPS manages the nation’s leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information from approximately 40 million loans across the spectrum of credit products. The company’s research experts carefully analyze this data to produce dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for LPS’ monthly Mortgage Monitor Report.
Sacramento needs a further 10-15% adjustment at the low end and a 30-40% adjustment everywhere else.
This typical example should be closer to $220k:
Jan 11, 2010 Listed $292,000
Sep 04, 2009 Sold $425,526
Oct 01, 2004 Sold $499,000
Aug 18, 1989 Sold $167,000
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Is an influx of hot money, money which is brought in by hotties?
What's the definition of hot money anyway? How do you "limit it"?
Definition here:
hot money definition
As I've said before, the "distressed" category is arbitrarily defined.
Some businesses will lie to hide their status as a going concern. Other businesses abuse marketing tricks to the point where a license is required to post a "Going Out of Business" sign.
Houses depreciate. The currency is devalued whenever money is printed. Prices go up and down. Distress is paying too much or selling for too little as a result of distorted information and FIRE tactics.
MLM wrote:
Margin credit at broker-dealers does not include all margin-credit, but is perhaps indicative of total margin credit (what else are you going to do with excess reserves?)
it is tricky though because issuance of new stock far from rock bottom, and I'm guessing exceeds inflows by a healthy amount
Not quite zero downside. You give Sacramaniacs far too much credit. They can f-up just about anything.
Isn't it interesting that the 'cash buyer' percentage has been nearly identical to the 'FHA buyer' percentage for some time now.
The cash buyers are flippers. They buy with all cash on the court steps and sell to the FHA buyer lambs.
GDD9000 wrote:
We're not all working for the state government, ya know...
From one of THE liberals of the oppressive liberal media: Bill Moyers Journal . Transcripts | PBS
Edit: A video of it too: Bill Moyers Journal . Watch & Listen | PBS
Jack Staub wrote:
sounds about right
pavel.chichikov wrote:
So the Chinese are basically saying they want to limit speculative money. Good luck with that.
So the Chinese are basically saying they want to limit speculative money. Good luck with that.
Both China and Russia are declaring that they are going to bring this speculative money under control before it distorts and damages their economies. Before it controls them.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Not yet.
"I expect the use of short sales to increase nationwide in 2010."
Bloody global warming. I hope they're not Khakis...though I do kinda still like girls in those dolphin things. Glod I'm old!
This one is easy.
Lenders are moving to do short sales so the forclosure numbers come down.
Better numbers for gov reports to the people.
Better PR for the lenders.
But they will only say REOs are down and nothing about short sales in MSM.
The real tragedy of all this quantitative easing, is how does one differentiate a good dollar, from another?
The money has been homogenized downwards...
There are no winners in a race to the bottom.
Alcoa and Chevron disappoint ...
Alcoa Earnings: Alcoa Earnings Miss Forecasts; Sales Edge Expectations - CNBC
AA: Summary for ALCOA INC- Yahoo! Finance
Chevron Interim Update: Fourth-Quarter Profit to Decline Sequentially - CNBC
CVX: Summary for CHEVRON CORP- Yahoo! Finance
best to all
having owned in Roseville a while back..Sacramento is not that bad a place to live but you might want to be married.....single...not so good...sacramento is always in running for the fattest city in US...you want to live in the foothills out of the tule fog....
3944 Whispering Pine Court, Shingle Springs
if this came down to 325K, I'll think of moving up there
broward wrote:
Actually, the smart ones do. Good medical/dental, pension, low stress. The people that complain about "government workers" (like me) had their chance to cash in the scam too. It thing is, in a society like this, the people that are participating in a scam are the smart people. I work for a Zombie now, but that was accidental. I didn't know it would be a Zombie, just kinda worked out that way.
Comrade Misean is Dope wrote:
I'd suggest hot pants, but I'm too pretty for prison-
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
No, they want to limit speculative money that they don't create.
no problemo, I'll send out a memo that earnings are going to grow even faster in H2 to make up for the disappointment
3-D and Web hot trends in adult entertainment - Yahoo! News
NaRm
maybe you can be a feature on 60 minutes, ask them in advance what kind of notes/video/audio you should be recording
broward wrote:
Which would be imported money. Is it realistic - then - to say this, or is it just more economic trash-talkin'?
Looks nice. Make an offer & see them laugh!
lock limit down!~
Down goes Frazier!
Elmo in the house!
Oh, those were the days. This, as EHP dutifully points out, will become good news.
2009: A Year of Teenage Employment Infamy
Of course his name is Lance.
What else would it be?
Oh great.
I was thinking Iceland may not be all that bad. Now I'm thinking Mars. There's water there. That's hopeful.
lawyerliz wrote:
Harry Drive-Shaft? BTW, it's not just Lance, it's Lance "Johnson"
Cinco-X wrote:
It's the Betamax of Porn, robotic girlfriends will deliver more for less.
the real housewives of orange county
I admit the channel surfing stops whenever I come across an episode.
It truly scares me that the tv signal of this show is being sent across the galaxy.
Aliens will show no mercy on the earthlings.
Margin credit at broker-dealers is up 27.4% from Feb 2009 to Sep 2009.
And when interest rates ratchet up?
I'm shocked-shocked-shocked that McGwire was using steroids when he was hitting all those dingers...
anybody see that 100 pt tick drop in the spx after close today?
or that 16.26 erroneous low tick on the VIX today
is this an attempt to game algorithmic/TA trading?
for example, this 1047 SPX tick at 4:13 is a 61.8% retrace of the 8/17 swing low
and is a 23% retrace (and fib extension long) from the 666 bottom
and a retest of the 10/14/08 impulse high
this is not the first time its happened, huge gaps then resets based on some kind of error
Cinco-X wrote:
I donno.... I'm thinkin' 3D porn is really pushing the limits of morality. In my day, we had to watch squiggly porn, broadcast in "scrambled" split-screen-mode, with the bodies on the far left and right of the screen, except for the occasion single-screen flash of interest that rewarded a patient viewer. We don't have this immoral 3-D stuff, there was still something left to the imagination!
Alcoa is a prime example of how inflation isn't universally beneficial to all companies - higher output prices, but even higher input prices. Last I checked making aluminum requires a lot of energy, for example.
Another monetary crisis...1971...and more lessons not learned...
http://www.perjacobsson.org/lectures/1972.pdf
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Any chance this is an artifact of high speed trading? Don't they place orders then rapidly cancel them to effectively "front run" stocks? And BTW, by "they" I mean
It tells you all you need to know about markets that huge global companies like Alcoa and Ford are so volatile.
I bought Ford at $1.03 and sold it for $2.75. I bought Alcoa in the $5s and sold it for $12.50.
I look like a dummy for selling so soon, but these stocks have overshot on the upside at least as much as they did on the downside. It's crazy that the market can't seem to find real value anymore for even the largest companies on the planet. Of course, you know why...
Anecdotes of the day:
Nobody sees any
s. A couple said, things are bad and yet
the tv says. . . Others are getting it.
Went to try to bargain my lease, which really is very low. Only got some free
parking stickies for clients. Lease agent said bank supervision their loan is
saying really intelligent things like, why aren't you getting more tenants? why
can't your raise the rent. Like the bank people have totally isolated themselves
from even hearing any bad news that affects them.
She said you can't steal clients away these days, 'cause the current landlords
will offer anything to keep their tenants, and nobody is starting businesses.
broward wrote:
I'm sorry I'll miss the Star Trek Holideck concept. Of course, that's just a utopian blue-pill society.
gee, I actually missed that.
I received yet another batch of credit card transfer checks in the mail today at 0% interest (for 6 months, otherwise 3.99 for 18 months I believe).
Citi, Bank of America, and now Chase have all sent me very low teaser rate checks recently.
What part of maxing out the consumer until they default don't these companies understand? I'm sure their cc lines are profitable, but in this economy, encouraging consumer debt is not exactly a sign of self-preservation.
I was looking at the DX. June 1st ~ 80. September 30 ~ 77. December 31 ~ 78.
S & P 500 might see a bit of a headwind in repatriating Q4 earnings.
rich wrote:
It's all about manipulating perception, not delivering value.
the final end-game of "free markets".
Weren't the various steroid users in baseball an excellent metaphor, for what's transpired on Wall*Street?
Win by any means necessary, and the bigger the home run financially, the less it mattered how you went about doing it...
Have you seen your pants have hit the big time?
EA cuts sales, expects wider annual loss - MarketWatch
There was one hot game this xmas, Modern Warfare 2, and EA didn't make it.
RATM wrote:
Some of us are just waiting for the next Blizzard title.
and I am learning Wii bowling. hahahhahahahahahahahaha.
I used to be addicted to Civilization, but CR is much better.
back in the 2003 (?) Fed minutes Bernanke argues, on the basis of a short correlation study by the Fed, that higher commodity prices don't translate into higher consumer prices, and if it doesn't affect CPI it is not the Fed's business
well that was true, but for 2 limited mitigating factors. The amount of savings or buffer that a company has. There was a larger shift going on to outsource. Understanding the situation completely flies over Bernanke's head. He has a single perspective, and only cares about a very limited set of datapoints. Textbook assimilation bias that reverts to denial when his selected datapoints refute his perspective.
Outsider wrote:
Looks like a great opportunity for you to profit from the same low interest rates as the bank. Find a few cash starved, but sound local businesses, and make a few loans. You can probably get 20% and gratitude too.
cinco, that could be it...flash trade...but it acts like a probe...that 100 pt tick down seems like some kind of way for thier code to find out what other trading algos will do if it happens....these guys, have some nerd....
Cinco-X wrote:
Big Starcraft fan here. Starcraft 2 has taken so long, and offers so little that I just don't care anymore.
Outsider wrote:
But what about the upfront charge, now with out limit. Sure you may have 0% but the upfront fee may be 3% or more. Considering this, it is a good deal for the bank
lawyerliz wrote:
What?
It says "brown pants", not "leather".
I thought it was some sort of scat reference.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Big Diablo/DiabloII fan here. I'm willing to wait. Hell! It's WAY better than American Idol though I'll have to wait and see if it can pull me away from CR-
Cinco-X wrote:
Also from AVN,
Foxy 'Roxxxy': world’s first 'sex robot' can talk about football - Telegraph
Also in 3D.
Looks like leather to me.
If it quacks like a duck. . . . . .
RATM wrote:
CalculatedRisk wrote:
You know, if the price falls, it's tempting to buy some Chevron stock here. Nice dividend, and refining margins should recover as refineries are closing down with no chance of new ones being built. Valero announced two closures last week, as I recall.
Or is this too U.S.-centric an analysis for a company like Chevron?
We were over @ a party playing Wii (both of us never played before) and between my wife and I, we have a combined 73 years of skiing experience, but we looked like rank amateurs skiing on Wii, crashing all over the place.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Burned some CPU cycles this weekend playing Star Trek Online after scoring a closed beta key...the gift card from Amazon has already been spoken for (can't help myself, I was once literally a card carrying member of a Star Trek fan club)
sm_landlord wrote:
and what does that do to the oil price?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Trap of the fundamentals - seems like not too much until the insane slosh goes down - so doesn't matter until it does, the same story of a "recovery" with no true end demand pull through...
So this is what how many guys want?
Well, if this is the only place they, ummm, spill their seed,
I can think of it as evolution in Action.
.
.
...Niven.
Somewhere in NJ
I took my kid to the dentist today. Front desk calls someone with a payment problem. It seems the patient is not making COBRA payments since Nov.
Most people have forgotten about the first wave of casualties.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I did -- and didn't even have ill-gotten gains. But it's hardly the stress-free, secure, slacker's paradise you see to think it is. My wife and I are both UC system. If one of us isn't laid off by year's end, I'll be surprised. If both of us are, I won't be surprised. The stress is ratcheting up by the day. Thank goodness for the good health care -- my department is becoming "sicker" as time goes on, and I know a major component of it is stress-related.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Nothing in particular, but it should enable refining margins to improve.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Not just Wall Street. Main street too. Most "fans" didn't and don't care all that much about steroids as long as the team wins. I guess that goes for beating the evil-doers too.
outsider- I gamed chase on a similar offer. The payments you make go to lowest entry rate balance, any other balance just goes higher as interest rings up...I paid balance down to $100.00 via online banking, next day while bank still thought I had a large balance at higher rate, I used the .99% check for 9 months to ante up leverage to 10-1, my little carry trade....
felt like a banker.....they havent sent me one since....the 3% is not an issue
NPR talked about some college stress test that goes back
to 1938ish. Present students are 4 xs as stressed as per the
test. Excess debt anyone?
Starcraft 2 is just setting the stage for Starcraft Universe or whatever they end up calling it. Of course at the speed they release, we'll be well into the next boom/bust cycle by the time it comes out. Not that I blame them for concentrating on quality over speed. It's served them well so far.
lawyerliz wrote:
Just teasin'; I've been married 23 years and have a couple of kids.
lawyerliz wrote:
The sex robot could have as big of an impact on society as telephones did. If a robot could take the place of a rape victim, especially in war zones, that would be a very big thing.
True, but somebody is buying those things.
Was walking last night in the San Jose Cupertino border area. Ran into a Realtor picking up his signs. He is busy and things are moving. House prices probably 800k -1.2
sm_landlord wrote:
So where is that oil going to go if not a refinery? Production hasn't been pulled back
End demand is not likely to jump if prices must go up so refiners can break even, in fact it would likely decline by some amount making for even less end demand for oil.
Hey, what an idea!!! Bomb sexually repressed middle eastern areas
with sex dolls!! With packets of Viagra packed in the belly buttons!!
The bombees might even be grateful!
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Unfortunately, rape is an act of violence and not a means of sexual satisfaction. As such, without the ability to terrorize the victim, these robots wouldn't service the needs of the rapist.
lawyerliz wrote:
You've obviously never done PR for tech products before...
lawyerliz wrote:
Somebody buys blow up dolls too, but all the one's I've seen have been used as gags.
lawyerliz wrote:
I would think that a good sex robot would keep most of the introverted guys happy; which is at least 25% of the population. Sex is mostly a fantasy activity for males, so a robot that fulfilled the fantasy would be perfectly acceptable.
In fact, I think a good business plan would be rent-a-robot stores (say Block Bustier). Most guys fantasized about a new female every few hours, so this should be quite profitable.
They can be programmed to shreek, no, no, and have
bruises appear on this skin!!
(shreak? shreik? shriek? Ah, yes shriek, i before e)
Look at the price on those things. Not in gag gift territory.
Nope. Enlighten me.
Sad thread.
On the subject of sex robots...
Why do people play 'sports' on Wii?
Why not just go bowling, or skiing, or whatever it is that they give you a completely fake experience doing, that bears no relation to the real thing?
lawyerliz wrote:
Your obsession with these is starting to border on disturbing. In a way it reminds me of my Grandmother reading the "Bodice Ripper" novelettes. I had no idea what they were about until a young woman explained to me that they were essentially about rapes. Kind'a freaked me out-
Just because you see it at a trade show, read about it in a magazine, see it advertised, see it on the teevee, etc. doesn't mean that a single unit has been sold. If it looks like a dumb and expensive idea, it may very well be just that and no more.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
That is the key point, EHP - small_ll, the thing is oil is an intermediate input the world doesn't need a single barrel of it - the product yield, on the other hand, is rather useful...so the ultimate fate of oil demand is a function of refinery throughput.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
High gas prices.
nova wrote:
It's probably my fault for being first.
All I heard is bad stuff today. Give me a break.
My squatter has to pay 3k into the registry of the court
or get thown out the following week.
One client's son is getting teachers at Miami-Dade that he can't
understand the accents of. Can't switch to a different teacher because
they've cut so many classes because they have to cut expenses.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
FWIW, they're often used in physical therapy for older folks, folks who could become seriously injured even on the bunny slope. They do help these folks build muscle and fine motor control.
MLM wrote:
Silicone dolls are quite popular in Japan, where they are known as "Dutch Wives" ('dattchi waifu'). Their name originates from the term, possibly English, for the thick rattan or bamboo bolster, used to aid
Sex doll - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
energyecon wrote:
So you are saying that reduced refinery capacity does not give the refiners any additional pricing power?
$$$
Bowling is actually pretty realistic.
For a funny aside, google : "Dennis Miller rant barcalounger"
sm_landlord wrote:
Isn't that in the hands of the speculators?
My mom can't throw a real bowling ball at 86 anymore.
At her age swinging an arm and running a few steps is excercise.
We laughed and had a good time. No it's not "real" bowling, but it's
real Wii-ing.
from: Euro Watch
He also writes how Spain will follow Greece...Interesting post.
And more bad news on unemployment again today, since even if Spain provides only quarterly data on the unemployment rate, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat give a monthly, seasonally corrected number, which stood at 19.4 per cent in November, the second highest rate in the whole EU bloc behind Latvia. And youth unemployment is far worse, with Spain now facing the real prospect of having a "lost generation", since unemployment among people aged from 16 to 24 is now 43.8 percent, the highest in Europe, and more than double the overall rate. The increase in unemployment among young people has been especially traumatic, with the rate jumping from 17.5 percent three years ago to the current level. And here again Spain stands out even among other European countries with problematic economies. In Greece, for example, the youth unemployment rate is 25 percent, while Ireland’s is 28.4 percent and Italy’s is 26.9 percent.
Federal Reserve Seeks to Protect U.S. Bailout Secrets (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve asked a U.S. appeals court to block a ruling that for the first time would force the central bank to reveal secret identities of financial firms that might have collapsed without the largest government bailout in U.S. history.
Bernanke - must go
Geither - must go
Summers - must go
but Rahm Emmanuel is protecting them
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Yeah, but Japan might as well be a different planet. I say that after having been abused by some of their toilets the last time I was there.
energyecon
natch, just feeling socratic post-lunch
we are far from a stable equilibrium in just about anything where the market is global
How much does a Wii bowling ball weigh in at?
nova wrote:
Anybody know which of our 'U' numbers the european rate equivalent too?
sm_landlord wrote:
If I may say so, he's saying that the pricing power is more likely to come at the expense of the oil companies than it is the consumer
It's about final demand
km4 wrote:
Surely this is a national security concern. We can't have trrrrssss finding out information like this.
????? No, don't tell me.
MLM wrote:
That's the most misogynistic comment I've read, ever.
Ok, your mom gets a pass.
Could always strap some weights around the wrist if you want it to be even more realistic.
Uncle Ar wrote:
I think there's a doll for this too.
Uncle Ar wrote:
Not anywhere close. My 9-year old consistently gets in the 180's on Wii and struggles to get a 50 with a ball that has actual weight to it.
Over 24m Chinese men face lonely future
The controler is what you move and it doesn't weigh
much, and yes with some stuff you can add a weight.
And I don't know how realistic it is because I was ok at it.
sm_landlord wrote:
Where did I say anything about pricing power? The comment in the thread that I responded to was EHP addressing the potential impact on oil demand, and ultimately oil prices.
Pricing power for refiners will be a contest between the increase input costs, production costs and consumer demand. Prices have been going up steadily, but refiners are closing because their margins...the technical term is "suck." So the high cost production is going away, and until the regulatory story shakes out over carbon, there will be precious little new investment in expanding refining capacity at existing facilities.
Just from my very limited experience with Wii, it looked like a carpel-tunnel doctor's wet dream.
Spain is looking at possible 25% UE this year on a 50 million pop.
Uncle Ar wrote:
Tried the Wii bowling for the first time over the holidays, the 100 pin game was a hoot!
tg wrote:
That why God invented homosexuality.
MLM wrote:
The Anime set?
Over 24m Chinese men face lonely future
That why God invented homosexuality.
And Thailand, the Phillipines, and West VA
The physical therapists love it (from a financial standpoint) - for real. Many wii injuries they get to deal with.
More pressure on home prices in 2010.
‘60-day delinquency rates have risen over 250% in the 12 months following previous recasts for prime and Alt-A loans,’ said Slump.
FITCH: Check Out The "Payment Shock" ALT-A Mortgage-Holders Are About To Feel
Yes, Slump.
These people should be buying in Canada...in the great white north real estate only goes up
Where the men are men and the sheep are nervous (heard from a sheep farmer in WVa.)
Maybe this will result in them valuing women more??
Nah. Maybe women will get to pick a couple of husbands?
Gosh, people, think outside the box.
broward wrote:
Then try this one.
Many years ago I worked for a medical ultrasound company, during the time that Japanese manufacturers first began to market here in the U.S. I was at a trade show when someone I worked with pulled me off to watch a TV loop being shown at one of the Japanese booths. The company was introducing a new anal ultrasound probe, which was attached to a little seat. To insert it, the patient would "wiggle" down onto the probe. The smiling face of the model in the film was absolutely hilarious, and there was a crowd of gaijin standing there watching the film loop and laughing uproariously. The Japanese folks in the booth couldn't understand what was so funny.
The product never took off in the States, though other Japanese manufacturers had great success in the field in general.
Edit: I'm happy to report that I found no Japanese toilets with anal probes in them, but I did get sprayed first in the face, and then in the ass (once I learned to stay seated after pushing one of the many buttons on the toilet control panel) by one.
Charles Kiting wrote:
More likely that's what he invented masturbation for-
Both of them are sins, SINS doncha know?
MLM wrote:
I imagine not, especially if someone was sitting on it.
For a glimpse into things Japanese, stick "Tampopo" in your netflix que.
I promise you it's like nothing you have ever seen, a Spaghetti Eastern.
lawyerliz wrote:
Which is why God invented sex robots.
MLM wrote:
I'm not touching this one.
broward wrote:
"What the hell's going on? Why didn't it flush? Uh oh, what's that little contraption folding out there?"
lawyerliz wrote:
I'm having a hard time reading what you said-
energyecon wrote:
You didn't - I did at the beginning of that thread.
Agreed. Thanks for the response.
The Romans used sponges. I guess they had sponge cleaning slaves.
Apparently they looked down on barbarians who used leaves!
Cinco-X wrote:
LOL +1
lawyerliz wrote:
That leaves a wholesome, Christian vocation, like war. Either that, or the men start upping their game, working out more, dressing better..
CR, help, we need a
Now THAT is pornographic.
Mail order brides. Get a bleach blond from W. VA for 5k. Trailer not included.
Uncle Ar wrote:
We know what you folks from Arkansas do with pigs.........
YouTube - Squeal Like A Pig (Deliverance)
Whiskey wrote:
Not sure Christian. Male. The most enjoyable 4 F's of male life: Food, Fear, Fighting, and sex. This pig covered 3 of the 4.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Only gay men, alas do that.
Chinese women with 2 hunky spouses!
nova wrote:
Remind s me of that joke....
Answers - $5.
Correct Answers - $50.
Who is from Arkansas? I've only spent 2 days there my entire life (and didn't see a single pig).
Wouldn't it be a hoot, if desperate to leave the country American women become as commonplace, as Russian women became after the fall of communism?
From "3 Reasons This Bubble Will Continue to Grow"
“...The Herd” Still Hugs the Sidelines
Since the rally began, there have been very few true believers. Like generals who tend to fight the last war, investors fail to adjust to what the market gives them.
This time around has been no different. Since the rally began, most investors failed to take what the market gave them and passed up on the 2009 rally. As we noted a few weeks ago, the hottest investment of 2009 was bonds.
According to TrimTabs, a firm which tracks where investors are putting money to work or taking it off the table, most investors jumped headlong into bond and hybrid funds (funds that invest in both stocks and bonds) last year. The “conservative” funds attracted $592 billion in capital last year.
Meanwhile, for only the third time in the past 15 years, investors pulled more money out of stock funds than they put in. TrimTabs found that investors pulled out $14 billion last year. The only other times that happened recently was in 2008 and 2002 (Note: two of the best times to buy).
The Associated Press summed it up best this week when it reported, “After being key players in bull runs of the past, small-time investors have not only stopped buying, they're selling.”
One of the clearest signs of a bubble is when everyone is piling in. During the heights of bubbles you’ll see news stories of teenaged “trading wizards” and you’ll get tips from people who have never invested and shouldn’t be investing. That still hasn’t happened yet. But if history is any indication, it will...."
3 Reasons This Bubble Will Continue to Grow
Sebastian
FT.com / Commodities - Miners shun China in iron ore price talks
Remind s me of that joke....
Is that the Pope and the Rabbi joke?
In what order?
Uncle Ar wrote:
Oops! I thought the Ar was for Arkansas.
Slashdot Technology Story | CES Vendors Kicked Out of Hotels For Showcasing Wares in Room
Adelson's Las Vegas hotels were extorting companies with rooms booked in order to scratch together enough dollars to make the next debt payment
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
More hardball... interesting.
I thought it was in regards to the grey-mare...
Sebastian wrote:
YouTube - Buyer Beware!
whoops
I guess my meaning was UncleAr.
How to win friends. Geesh.
Interesting economics-related post that I was redirected to today.
The Futurist: The Misandry Bubble
" large numbers of middle-class men who were upstanding citizens, who were subjected to divorce against their will, had their children taken from them, pay alimony masked as child support that is so high that many of them have to live out of their cars or with their relatives, and after job loss from economic conditions, are imprisoned simply for running out of money. If 10-30% of American men are under conditions where 70% or more of their income is taken from them under threat of prison, these men have no incentive to start new businesses or invent new technologies or processes"
I dig.
Sebastian wrote:
Yup. I think this guy is right. Good link. From last year it seems: stocks and dollars are inverse.
If 10-30% of American men are under conditions where 70% or more of their income is taken from them under threat of prison, these men have no incentive to start new businesses or invent new technologies or processes"
Next time they will use match.com won't they.
Kids are expensive.
My father never gave my mom a dime for well over 10 years.
She didn't want him around, which was a good idea, I decided
when I met him.
Divorce is ugly. With kids, it's way uglier.
I thought match.com was most popular with those stuck with real estate.
lawyerliz wrote:
IIRC, there's a fairly strict policy set by the convention. Exhibition space is expensive and is one of the big revenue producers, and showcasing in hotels pulls attendees off the convention floor and hurts business. I think CES is particularly strict.
nova wrote:
Doubt it.
I'm pretty much done.
I like my Seattle gf but I put almost no effort out otherwise now.
In retrospect, I see that I need to earn almost nothing if I'm not pursuing women. No kids to pay for, no house, don't need a fancy car, etc, etc.
CR chart on Glenn Beck?
But how can they kick them out of paid for hotel rooms?
Clearly I don't understand how this works.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Doing what?
lawyerliz wrote:
If the hotel is affiliated with the convention, they just do it- If it's a non-affiliated hotel, it probably isn't a big deal...
Government employment and private employment chart from a few days ago.
Cinco-X wrote:
And the unions. Typically as an exhibitor, you have to hire union guys (at incredible prices) to unload your truck, move your stuff in and out of the hall, and reload your truck. In a demo suite, you just tip the porters to help you haul it in and out.
So it's prolly in the hotel room contract.
Cinco-X wrote:
Of course, if it's a non-affiliated hotel, it will be hard for the little company to get anybody to come over and look at their stuff.
"3 Reasons This Bubble Will Continue to Grow"
Or maybe after living through 2 stock market bubbles in 10 years investors are getting tired of the game, and are willing to avoid the third bubble.
Glenn Beck Shows His Audience The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever
:eyeroll:
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Nahhhhh.....
MLM wrote:
True; the affiliated hotels will have buses to and from the convention center, etc. I guess that's sorta the point...
I thought that was just good business
Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said Bank of America Corp. failed to disclose “extraordinary losses” by Merrill Lynch & Co. in the weeks before investors voted on the takeover of Merrill Lynch in 2008.
The SEC, in a letter dated Dec. 31 and released publicly today, asked a Manhattan federal judge’s permission to file a new complaint in its lawsuit that already claims Bank of America misled shareholders over bonuses paid by Merrill Lynch. Based on information discovered since it sued in August, the SEC claims that by the time of the Dec. 5, 2008, vote, Bank of America was aware of $4.5 billion in losses at Merrill in October and billions more in November.
Well somebody gave CR a hat tip, I wonder if Glenn Beck did. Not
going to watch Beck to find out.
MLM wrote:
For that, you hire girls to run around passing out cards with your off-site location. And you serve drinks, provide lots of comfortable seating, foot massages, etc.
JP wrote:
Yet another "celebrity" using CR's stuff.
I hope not! Last thing we need is his audience hanging out here. That's what TF is for.
Off to eat some din din. Crappy chinese probably.
My father was in the stock business for almost 50 years, and he didn't condone thievery and probably turned in dozens of people to the SEC, back when it had teeth. They were quite quick to get rid of bad apples in the biz, way back when...
What the hell has happened to this country?
JBR wrote:
Maybe we need some new blood to break up the echo chamber.
according to the comments
- they asked the hotel if there was anything that said they couldn't exhibit, hotel said there was nothing in writing, but they had to pay $10k to stay
- exhibiting in rooms has happened at conventions since those conventions began
basically it sounds like a management minded penny-pinching crackdown
Very true.
JP wrote:
Here's another scary chart, in terms of implications for the future:
CHART OF THE DAY: How The Government Payroll Replaced Goods-Producing Jobs
lawyerliz wrote:
You can do better, LL. Isn't your neighborhood civilized?
nova wrote:
Bah, less than a 6th of an Enron Unit. Not even worth bothering the courts over.
I knew CR was just a front for Glenn Beck.
The sex robot looks exactly like Chrissy Hynde.
It's cold and I feel grouchy and uninspired.
sm_landlord wrote:
32-hour workweek. Force private industry to distribute the real work across more people, and now you don't need the government make-work jobs, ergo you can cut taxes.
broward wrote:
A lot of people here are very devoted to the echo chamber. But I agree with you. We have a narrow range of views in the commentariat here.
lawyerliz wrote:
Don't get too grouchy, you can be replaced by a Chrissy Hynde robot now.
patientrenter wrote:
Sebastian is trying to help us make some short term speculative loot, but we are resisting him at every turn.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
You're over the line, bucko.
patientrenter wrote:
I'll play devil's advocate for the next week. Any suggestions?
Ok Broward, I'm still here. Just how am I supposed to do that?
I have 2 helpers, usually one an intern type. Are you asking me to cut hours and
pay of my 2, and then hire a third to doesn't know anything and drive myself crazy
training? Everybody unhappy. When I have a rush or to work late--not much of
that lately--I need a trained person to stay and do their stuff.
It seems to me that financial reform is actually in the best interest of the industry. The rest of the world is already so pissed off that they are talking about ways to replace the dollar.
Bernanke, Geitner, Summers and others who spent long careers on Wall Street or serving Wall Street interests can not deliver that change.
One would think that the "political calculus" reflected in millions of unemployed Americans beginning to question "How did this happen" and "Who is in charge of fixing it", would prompt Obama to rethink his Wall Street economic team.
I see Obama's "base" as the millions of people who sent in small campaign donations. The hopes of these millions have been shafted.
dr munch wrote:
Better than Patti Smith
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Convince me the banks are solvent.
You really think so hunh?
You really think that anybody can replicate my conversation?
Even I can't do that!
sm_landlord wrote:
From my distant trade show past, I recall that if you were not upstairs from the convention floor, then all the drinks and foot massages you could afford (which wouldn't be too many or you would have a booth instead) wouldn't do much good.
I think the hookers and coke idea might work better though....
I think the spectrum of views here is covered. So areas kind of heavy with like thinking posters and others light but that is what makes a good discussion. CR is the best.
patientrenter wrote:
Ahem....not me
Yeah, evilHenry, go for it..
Proposed. The top 19 banks are solvent.
lawyerliz wrote:
I think he meant it more as a generic "policy" thing. As in France, which has a 32 hour week. The policy of 32 hour weeks is supposed to cause more people to be hired. Not sure if this works across the board, but for big companies that enforce the number of hours work they'd either produce less or hire more.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
I wish crispy would come back. I think his viewpoint in general is missing.
patientrenter wrote:
On the other hand, we've been right a lot.
Edit: Except for CSC's thing about cannibalism. That might have been a little over the top (I hope).
lawyerliz wrote:
I found a great cafe attached to a good restaurant in my neighborhood. Everything comes from local coop farms, and they sell prepared dishes from the restaurant in the cafe. I get 'home'-baked choc chip cookies for $1 each, and entire meals with short ribs or shrimp or chicken, along with expertly cooked delicious and healthy sides and sauces, all for $10 or $ 9 per complete dish. Local people, but Syrian influence, so it's a little different.
And it's well below freezing here. C'mon, you must have something as good in your neck of the woods.
Well, once more adios.
adios as well, it's dinnertime.
If Beck really knew anything, the "Unemployed over 26 Weeks" one, is the scary chart...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
You continually slay me JD. OK, this time for real, the food is there...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
He's playing to his base. Nothing wrong with that. I would think that Faux News would have an interest in keeping the badness of the economy in front of their viewers.
JP wrote:
They don't need to be solvent, they just need positive cash flow. The Fed will back all the TBTF with money printing on demand if there is a run to test solvency. There is precedent in history and presently in other similar banking systems. Loan demand is down so the banks don't need as much money, Yield curve can’t drive profits if banks won’t lend | Analysis & Opinion | Reuters . So if nothing changes between solvency and insolvency, you can call them solvent. After all, the prices on assets and the selected capital ratios are and have long been arbitrary with a lot of leeway.
The reduced borrowing will ultimately lower debt servicing charges and provide a snapback rally powered by improved cash flow and available borrowing capacity once the recovery takes off to meet the Blue Chip and Macroeconomic advisors GDP forecasts for 4%+ GDP growth in 2010 based on the late October/early November inputs like trade, commodity prices, inflation, yields, etc..
lawyerliz wrote:
No, you have to cut your own pay.
That's the problem.
Nobody wants to share or even thinks about it.
So they're going to be forced to share the hard way.
Right about everything but the big crash. What happened to that? The Big Crash here is like my BIL Always talking about how he is going to quit drinking and show up on time but....
Yeah, thank goodness he's on tv, because on the internet nobody gives a damn when you burst into tears, uncontrollably.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Sure. All of the problems in the last two years are either minor or temporary. We're getting too worked up about them, and no fundamental change is needed.
Try that on for size! Oh, and to increase the opposition, just add that we need to increase our emphasis on the economic efficiency of all of our public policies.
Well, off to the health-club.
Go long Zombies!
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Not a chance. At the very least, Michael the Anarchist and Lucifer the Misogynist are gone, and I don't see any true-red commies here, either. No racists, either, at least not that will admit it. Heck, not even anybody in favor of a military takeover like in South America.
sarah palin is supposed to go to work for fox.
heres the link
FOXNews.com - Palin to Join Fox News as Contributor
gabyjan wrote:
BBC News - Sarah Palin signs on as a commentator with Fox News
lawyerliz wrote:
No, no, no. You want your competitors to do that. Then you take their customers because you provide better service.
broward wrote:
We used to have dot communist but he disappeared long ago. Wistful sigh.
And Jas...I believe he is gone anyway...There goes the Indian perspective...
Bill O'Riley will mentor Sarah Palin as she will be on with him first, Tuesday Night.
I'm a Democratic Socialist but not a true red commie...
patientrenter wrote:
This opinion got Ben Bernanke re-appointed as the head of the Federal Reserve which is a collective vote of confidence on behalf of everyone in the world given the USD's function as a reserve currency. For now the prices in financial markets prove him right. Therefore there is no credible opposition to what Bernanke says, because the results to date can reduce the opposition's foundation to one of jealousy. If you're so smart, why aren't you the head of the Federal Reserve?
Is that what they are calling it now?
Werner - He is in Munich awaiting trial.
Then there was that one person who kept mailing me jpgs of him and his GF. I would have had to wear a uniform....
broward wrote:
I have no objection to most military takeovers in South America, as long as they don't happen while I am on vacation there. Does that count?
Was that
nova? I forgot about him...
They are all here just maybe not admitted but the tone is. Red man in a blue dress and a blue man in a red dress. Purple people the whole bunch.
CK, nope, thats what I said.
I could go for an intelligent fly in the ointment, pleading their case that all is well in matters of a financial nature, but then they wouldn't be very smart, would they?
nova wrote:
Just was sitting here working on my version of mp's planning exercise. I guess a Japan-style outcome is possible, but it seems pretty low probability to me. On the other hand, even with some kind of currency devaluation or hyperinflation, we won't necessarily be forced to eat squirrels and run around in camo. That would require taking the current f-up we're seeing and moving it to a whole new level.
CK, I can not say. That would not be right. Plus the State Trooper uniform was expensive...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Exactly.
And you hear the same argument when you're unemployed.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
But, but.... LoL! It's so hard not to rise to the bait.
One thing I will say, though, in defense of your defense of the status quo ante, is that although I believe that we need to make major fundamental changes, they will be merely movements of 5-15% of our economy. We can accommodate that kind of change over 5-20 years without that much difficulty - as long as we work with the coming changes, not fight them forever.
broward wrote:
The current system is inefficient which means there is much room to increase productivity further thereby enriching everyone
[ I think we should all try and shift personas and see if we can't create a twilight zone feel ]
MLM
You going to put it out in PDF for us?
patientrenter wrote:
The economy is at all times in a state of perfect equilibrium.
Except for a brief time lasting from August 2008 to March 2009, then it was a once in a lifetime panic based on incorrect expectations.
patientrenter wrote:
Read that Bill Moyers interview and let me know what you think the odds are. I'd say not good.
Off to dinner (not even smart enough to get
)
I like to compare communism to capitalism, as I straddled both worlds and know them better than most.
I doubt there were very many people awaiting their Iron Curtain call, with a sense of entitlement, our birthright if you will.
When communism fell apart, people had been used to standing in line for 30 minutes, because a store got some new cans of turnips. Any other political system was welcomed, and that's why there was no violence (save Romania) when the whole shooting works went down.
It will be just the opposite here, mark my words.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
It's not driven by inefficiency, or even the perception of inefficiency.
It's driven by herd instinct and first mover advantage, and toss in a bit of sabotage and slander.
That's the big mistake that the Libertarians make. Efficiency is a relative measure.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
This is almost scary. I used to get all worked up about stupid economic inefficiencies that made us all poorer. Then I realized that just increased the individual economic value of people like me.
Doesn't that give us schizophrenics an unfair advantage?
nova wrote:
Hmm. I'll think about that.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Enough! We want our old (rational) EHP back.
If I were to purchase an assault rifle, I would get a Kalashnikov instead of an AR-15. Guess that makes me unAmerican.
Trivial. Proof by contradiction. Assume the banks are insolvent. If that were the case, this bearded guy named Ben in DC has something called a printing press and a fleet of choppers to drop money from the sky to cover the bad loans the banks have made. Thus, the banks cannot be insolvent.
QED
Alternative proof by contradiction (sketch): Assume banks are insolvent. Insolvent banks cannot hand out bonuses. The occupant of the White House and Congress will not let bankers go without bonuses, since they would not receive campaign contributions. Without campaign contributions, patriotic Mericans will not see the ads needed to want to re-elect them. Thus, banks cannot be insolvent. QED.
Surplus males = resource wars?
Afghanistan: only the first move in the grand chess game for control of Central Asian resources :: www.uruknet.info :: informazione dal medio oriente :: information from middle east :: [vs-1] :: informazione dal medio oriente :: information from middle east :: [vs-4]
rosethorn wrote:
No, it just makes you a more desirable target at 400 yards.
as long as the mix of production doesn't change, it's only a question of who gets what share of it
rosethorn,
If anyone says anything - just say you use only USA made ammo in it. It woll be okay then
tg wrote:
oh great, I'm reduced to the status of mustard on sale for 60% off
How green is my [chilly] valley?
Wind farms produced 'practically no electricity' during Britain's cold snap - Telegraph
broward wrote:
Mmm...
& divorce...
.
The pendulum is a swingin', and if you want to know where it will swing in regards to marriage/divorce, just look to History for some themed rhymes.
Badger boy wrote:
And that's about it. No consequences.
That's why I am very suspicious of the new proposals to charge banks for systemic risk, to "pay for the next bailout". It's a way to make TBTF permanent. Right now, there is a constituency opposed to TBTF. Why not buy them off with the illusion that a blank govt check for making bad bank loans can be covered by some insurance premium from the banks? The pols get an extra revenue source to spend for votes, and the banks get cover for TBTF. For a fee of $50 billion a year (taken from their customers as extra charges and) passed to their buddies in Congress, banks get to milk our economy forever.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Grey poupon never goes on sale
patientrenter wrote:
Yep, and we both know who will be paying those fees to the banks so they can pass it out to congress.
patientrenter
right before new years, Rodgin Cohen the chairman of Cromwell was on a BBerg surveillance interview/podcast. It gave a good overview of what was going to happen. Basically it will entrench the big banks, by regulating/taxing/charging 'shadow banking' out of existence (except the well like GMAC, GE Capital, etc). Then the small banks will get stuck between the lack of lending opportunities, and the higher deposit-weighted FDIC fees necessary to re-capitalize the DIF
Afghanistan: only the first move in the grand chess game for control of Central Asian resources
Russia has the inside lines both spatially and in intelligence. She already has important influence in other Central Asian states. She is not going to go away. Her only long-term rival might be Turkey.
Tinfoil Alert:
Domestic Espionage Alert: Spy Drone Discovered | NEWS JUNKIE POST
True. There's actually quite a few US brands of 7.62 X 39. Problem solved.
Canadians vow mass-mooning of US spy-blimp - Boing Boing
Afghanistan: only the first move in the grand chess game for control of Central Asian resources
Almost none. Bullets did fly for a short while in Moscow.
I remember watching the end in Romania on TV. People were literally dancing with rage.
C'mon, now. We have at least 2 Canadians (I'm looking at you, Noob and EHP).
That was meant to be a comment on no violence when Communism collapsed.
Pretty soon, a proper doomstead will need radar to detect enemy drones.
I wonder if you could adapt an inexpensive marine unit for spotting aircraft?
Which is why the US policy should be to develop strong ties with Russia. Russia is a paragon of civil liberties and the rule of law compared to Saudi Arabia.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
We must have been on different planets.
I watched the Russian White House get shelled by tanks.
Which is why the US policy should be to develop strong ties with Russia.
There is a fundamental collision of interests at this point.
broward wrote:
Eh, just obligatory ritual shelling...
I watched the Russian White House get shelled by tanks.
I did allude to that in my comment.
Well argued. A counterargument:
They don't need to be solvent
Yes they do. For common shareholders to be happy, they need to be convinced that there is equity in the business (ignoring greater fool models). If the shareholders believe the equity to be significantly less than zero, they will sell. Stocks going to zero causes confidence problems, which causes a run.
Now, a counterargument to my counterargument is FNM/FRE. Clearly a pair of stocks that should be at zero, yet they continue to defy gravity.
sm_landlord wrote:
what temp does tinfoil burn at?
Consider that Congress costs $2 billion per year in campaign contributions ($4 billion per 2 year election cycle spent by both parties) and the White House $500 million ($2 billion for both candidates every 4 years).
$2.5 Billion per year and you can buy 2/3 of the US government. That controls who gets selected to the other 1/3 (Courts).
That is one heck of a deal.
tg wrote:
2500 C, with the right mix...