from and related

Foot Locker to close 117 stores, cut 120 jobs - Yahoo! News

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

We're gonna need a grappling hook.

And yodeling lessons!

Chart #1 is crazy indeed! You know things are shattered when we are getting into 2nd standard deviations from the "norm". At lunch I need to see how CNBC is spinning this jobs report. Should be amusing.

yeah, something smells doesn't it?

According to the BLS, there are a record 6.13 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job).

Can we now please put the final nail into the coffin of BLS-measured unemployment (and U-3 in particular) being any sort of meaningful indicator of anything whatsoever as far as this recession goes?

That's, like, one job per store.

Don't laugh. Based on the few times I've been in and by there over the past few years, that's probably about half their retail workforce.

blue bars? If only on this one chart?

I should get back to football. This economic stuff is just too depressing.

The ostrich approach.

sportsfan wrote:

I should get back to football. This economic stuff is just too depressing.

The ostrich approach.

What do you do if you're a Bills fan?

some cre chart porn..my bad if repost....

Now See The Real State Of The Commercial Real Estate Industry 

Hey, we're better than Canada.
Look, they only lost 2,600 jobs.

Whiskey wrote:

What do you do if you're a Bills fan?

Punt ???

Whiskey wrote:
What do you do if you're a Bills fan?

Let Norwood try to make the field goal?

Rob Dawg wrote:

We are not making enough in wages to pay down consumer debt.

This is the primary thesis of Steve Keen, that the level of debt is what is driving the crisis, and that we have many years of pain ahead.

"My expectation is that, some time during 2010, the disconnect between the financial markets’ euphoric expectations and the hard reality of a deleveraging private sector will bring the optimism of both “born again Keynesian” neoclassical economists and the markets to an end."

Steve Keen's Debtwatch 

We'd been dating for a year, and Houston was killing the Bills in a playoff game, and I was watching it at home, and called her @ half-time, to commiserate with her, and she said let's go grab a bite, why don't you come over?

By the time I got to her place, Reich's marshall Frank was pulling out a miracle...

And that got us to the Superbowl, where we lost again.

MS:

Did you happen to see the Burj Dubai inauguration fireworks?

Dubai unveils world's tallest building with a nod to huge bailout by rival Abu Dhabi |
Art and design |
The Guardian

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

And that got us to the Superbowl, where we lost again.

4 times to the NFC East. Those were the salad days for me. How bout them Cowboys!

BY all means, take your money out of a money center bank that will still be here in 5 years and keep it in your mattress for 5 years while you try and find a small bank or credit union that will still be around in 2 years.

That'll show em

And as for startups, I'm going into the hawaiian rum business. They're practically giving molasses away(ca. $100/tn), can contract out production on the islands at first until the biz gets legs, ship in bulk to the mainland because deadheading is dirt cheap. Have trademark, distro, label & bottle designed, can have molds maunfactured in S. Korea for 1/10th the cost of US. In the meanwhile I scavenge for failed microbrewing & distilling equipment that I can arbitrage.

Hopefully bottle gives off illusion of top shelf, set price point for early adopters as mid-tier so they are willing to give placement and have fat margins.

Fannie Mae relaxes Florida condo standards - Yahoo! Finance

lawyerliz wrote:

All those sales meant lots of high end lawyer employment. What
are they doing now?

Posting comments on CalculatedRiskBlog.

Ever meet a happy-go-lucky lawyer?

Foot Locker to close 117 stores, cut 120 jobs - Yahoo! News
xxx
That's 120 mgt jobs, plus the jobs at 3% of their stores, which would be around 1000 people, the low-end dirty-collar being tossed under the bus. They're dead meat unemployable. Maybe they should learn Chinese.

Slumdog wrote:

They're dead meat unemployable

Until they graduate high school, then college. Then only half of them are unemployable.

Fannie Mae relaxes Florida condo standards - Yahoo! Finance

It's like they always say: There's no problem with supply and demand that more low-cost speculation can't solve.

, indeed.

That was an entertaining tale about Birkenfeld on 60 Minutes, check it out.

CBS.com - Official Site of CBS

Whistleblower goes to jail, perpetraitor of the crime remains on the job

Outsider wrote:

Foot Locker stores never struck me as capable of being profitable to begin with.

Nike sneaker retails $120(?), costs $10(being generous) to manufacture. Half of the rest goes to Nike, half goes to Footlocker. If the nut is cheap enough....

Roubini on unemployment this AM (CNBC)

But the road of a million miles starts with a single step. According to Roubini, we won't be at normal until 2015.

Whatever the new normal is.

Robots, offshoring, lower staffing ratios, less spending because less/stagnant wates, and more ills.

We prolly should acknowledge that we have 5-7% of people who want to work that will never make it in this decade. What should they do? What should WE do?

My choice, if it is as necessary as it seems, is socially paid jobs that could be done but are not well staffed (park rangers, park maintenance, assistants for the old and ill, day care, etc. We may have to choose between social instability and higher overall taxes (particularly at the upper income scales).

The only way you get a jubilee nowadays is complete and utter debauchment of your currency. Then you can hit the reset button.

Did Sebastian show up last thread to explain how this was just another garden variety recession, and that folks who held otherwise were just ignoring the data?

Wouldn't that lead from being a slave to the lender, to being a slave to a different political system?

Push.The.Button.Now. (reset, not nuclear )

Two things:
Don't worry too much about banks being hurt by default on student loan debts -- they are almost NEVER dischargeable in BK. In fact if the ex-student defaults, he/she just makes it really, really worse. Autos can be repossessed (at some expense), but CC?? Completely different issue -- very dangerous for banks.
Talked to a friend over the holiday. He runs the equipment leasing branch of a major multinational empire. Says the shipping container industry has not built a single unit that he knows of since November, 2008. That's right, not one unit in the last 13-14 months. And the empties continue to pile up.

lawyerliz wrote:

Hula gurls on label?

Nope, a stylized yucca that only grows on top of one of the island's volcanoes in a bottle that looks like a piece of obsidian. That way some of the dumber folks may think it's a tequila. All this savoring of flavors is for the birds, especially in rum. You either mix it with coke or you mix it with some sort of fruit mix.

energyecon wrote:

Did Sebastian show up last thread to explain how this was just another garden variety recession, and that folks who held otherwise were just ignoring the data?

He just said; "Number 17" but he didn't tell it very well. No one laughed.

Piece of obsidian, cool.

I think you would do better with a girl.

Their disinformation angle from the maim stream media about how any other financial instruments other than the dollar, might be hazardous to your wealth, or be the cause of the biggest war since World War 2*, along with the toady paid-off Keynesian economissed types babbling on about something they know very little about, bravely waving their credentials, which seemed bona fide enough, once upon a time.

• They actually said that on 60 Minutes

The trouble with the diffusion index chart is that it 'implies' that there is a past precedent (the rising and falling 'humps') that has some correlation to the recessions. But as we know, correlation does not...
There would seem to be no reason that the index could not go the other direction at any time.
Is there any mechanism of diffusion that you know of that causes an economic movement upward or downward?

Don't worry too much about banks being hurt by default on student loan debts -- they are almost NEVER dischargeable in BK.

There's about $550B worth of total student loan debt outstanding. This compares to $900B of credit-card debt, $1T of other nonrevolving loan debt, and, oh yeah, $14T+ worth of mortgage debt.

Every student loan ever written could pay off at 105% of par, and it would still all amount to putting a half-pint of blood in a patient whose EKG just went flat.

Well, at least I know EHP saw my call of -80k last night at 5:24pm on the employment report in the FDIC comments. This was from a state by state jobs forecast for December. I also do an industry by industry forecast as a benchmark. That doesnt look too pretty either. If you look at those trends, just like CR was saying about the diffusion index, there is no way you can say we are in an employment recovery, or really even close to one. Remember that when we finally got jobs turning around in the last recession, it was after nearly a year of bouncing along the bottom. And this time, we are gaining a lot of jobs (or saving, or not losing) through the massive stimulus we've had, especially the money sent to the states to avoid dealing with budgets. Well, guess what? Either were going to send even more money to them again, or we're going to lose those jobs. And that is but one sector.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Ever meet a happy-go-lucky lawyer?

Although I don't think you have ever met me, I don't actively practice anymore, JD.

crazyv wrote:

This data also suggests that the establishment survey undercounts on the way up and over counts on the way down

If you look at the BED survey to compare to the initial establishment nuimbers, the undercounting has increased from the start of the recession to today. They went from being almost spot on to 200k short (exB-D for both) per month in the most recent BED survey. This suggests that the B-D revision next month is gonna be a doozy of a number, something close to 800k at a minimum.

A small story about a job...

I went to the government website and saw a position for a landscape architect. This was a year and a half ago. Filled out the fields and dutifully updated information when prompted. I recieved an email saying that I was in the running for a particular postion at a national forest. Time passed, still no further information. I called the office where the postion would be. The job was cancelled. Reason?

The position was cancelled because the Forest Service could not hire the position fast enough to get this particular project going; a project with PG&E and the energy department. One and half years in total. They could not hire someone that would help with the project that included, as we all know the lightning speed of the energy department and the insanely fast PG&E.

Result: A person that had a job already was hired as a consultant.

Perhaps. Though, in contemporary times at least, one doesn't usually see the middle-aged overrepresented at protests and street demonstrations.

Attendance at speeches, rallies and at the polling stations would suffice.

Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote 8:24 am

"BY all means, take your money out of a money center bank that will still be here in 5 years and keep it in your mattress for 5 years while you try and find a small bank or credit union that will still be around in 2 years."

yeah youre right we should just let the puppet masters have their way with us

ps...i gotta feeling very few if any depositors will loose money in their credit unions..ncua

so why not kick the bankstas in the ass?

lawyerliz wrote:

I think you would do better with a girl.

Sailor Jerry already did it but frankly, I'm not selling it towards your demo. No offense intended.

"Metaobservation. We are not making enough in wages to pay down consumer debt."

As soon as it looks like a real recovery, oil will move up, sucking out what everybody thought would be increasing capacity for debt repayment.

Outsider wrote:
I can't get this idea out of my head today. Not socialism, just a one-time event. Reset. Push The Button. Whatever.
History should have taught us that equal distribution sucks, some meaningful amount of inequality is necessary, but past a certain point it ends up de facto monopoly or at least oligopoly, unstable and a grossly unfair playing field.

Jungle is just a little bit overgrown garden, nothing to worry about.

(PC Police pulls over blogger...)

Hi, the reason I stopped you was, we longer call them jungles. They are now called rain-forests.

I'm going to let you off with a warning this time~

Don't understand. I thought boys would like a
girl. What are you aiming for?

wally wrote:

"Metaobservation. We are not making enough in wages to pay down consumer debt."
As soon as it looks like a real recovery, oil will move up, sucking out what everybody thought would be increasing capacity for debt repayment.

As soon as it looks like a real recovery soon, all commodities will move up, sucking out what everybody thought would be increasing capacity for debt repayment.

There. I fixed that for ya.

mock turtle wrote:

i gotta feeling very few if any depositors will loose money in their credit unions..ncua
so why not kick the bankstas in the ass?

are not deposits in Credit Unions insured ? So unless we are talking about more than $250,000 why do I really care about finding either a bank or credit union that is going to be around in 2 -5 years?

crazyv wrote:

Why are various statistical measures that should co -relate not doing so.

I buy that the worker bees try to do their best, and also that inflections make data seem contradictory.

But don't underrate what happens to the data as it gets reviewed closer to the top of the pyramid. Science becomes politics and high finance.

I can't get the idea of oil tankers off the US coast, waiting, just waiting
for prices to go up so they can swoop in.

Bankers and and oil guys and all making
capitalism look extremely loathesome.

What market? Do we have markets in anything any more?

What's the difference between a market and a casino? In a casino there is a 'house', and the house always wins.

CoTD has a chart showing the wonderful job-creation record of the decade just ended:

Chart of the Day - Lowest decade job growth on record

So in addition to real wages falling, there wasn't any job growth either.
Way to go, Brownie.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

What's the difference between a market and a casino? In a casino there is a 'house', and the house always wins.

This inspires an idea: Move Wall Street to Las Vegas, take over the debt-ridden buildings and use all those flashy lights to tell the investment story of the day. GS Casino, JPM Casino, etc.

lawyerliz wrote:
Bankers and Vampire Squid from Hell and oil guys and all making
capitalism look extremely loathesome.
That's because it isn't anything remotely like free-market capitalism. It's a financial oligarchy.

When and where wasn't it?

sm_landlord wrote:

So in addition to real wages falling, there wasn't any job growth either.

remind me which party was in charge? Think that there is co-relation between being distracted by irrelevant things like guns, gays , god, patriotism and Clinton's BJ?. IMO people are getting exactly what they deserve.

CUs will be the last institutions standing.

We're in one, and it is very good to be there. It's conservatively run and they've always treated us well. But the membership is limited. I don't know how it is in larger CUs.

Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich

my friend, the reason for moving the money out from under the bankstas has nothing to do with sound investment advice

it is just one of the few lawful and peaceeful ways the average person can stick their finger in the eye of the bankstas and possibly have a small but measurable impact on the government sanctioned financial fraud which continues to rule the land

George Carlin,"Think how dumb the average person is and remember that half the people are dumber than that."

Yeah, but can you chart that ?

So, Pavel, a meta-question for you - were a demagogue to arise, from where would s/he expect to draw the broadest base of support? You seem to imply from the tail-end baby-boomers, while I would plump for the children of same (tweens, teens, and 20s).

I don't know, Mook. My crystal ball doesn't have that kind of resolution. I think it would depend on the seriousness, length and intensity of the crisis. There are regional and cultural factors as well.

Mook wrote:

Now, instead, what's going to result in the years to come will be cramdowns that are (a) larger; (b) not limited to first mortgages; and (c) not limited to Chap. 13.

If they also get (d) fully paid for by the federal government, it'll have been a worthy victory.

Outsider wrote:

Rob, if you don't like the reset idea, what's your solution for your metaobservation?
Might as well start honing your political platform issues.

The reset idea won't work. Doesn't matter whether I like it or not. My neighbor is LTV 130% , I'm 30% and our common neighbor is 0%. Mortgage debt erasure is neither logistically nor socially possible. IMO it isn't desirable either. I suggest that 12 fully amortizing payments earn the mortgage payer a tax credit equal to the last two principal payments (per amort sched). Gets people paying again, rewards prudence and saves the banks. I don't care about saving the banks but as a freebie I'll take it.

I'll be calling this the Party Party. I wanted to be the Apathy Party and pick up all the non-votes but the Elections Division said the ruling parties gat all those by default.

it is just one of the few lawful and peaceeful ways the average person can stick their finger in the eye of the bankstas and possibly have a small but measurable impact on the government sanctioned financial fraud which continues to rule the land

mock -

Here's another way:

Video - Breaking News Videos from CNN.com

"Man Sparks Credit Card Revolt"

poic wrote:

I bet we close green today. It's gonna be wack a bear day today.

I was surprised we weren't green right out of the chute. Crazyv's analysis was correct; this was a very bullish report.

comrade alexie mikhailovich said,

"If you have a best of breed local bank(like Hudson City) nearby, by all means go for it; but be careful what you wish for. FDIC and NCUA may guarantee to $250k, but I wouldn't count on it being readily available if the doom machine rolls through your town."

comrade!

when the airliner looses all power and begins to nose down into the deck

it wont matter whether or not you are seated in tourist class, business , or luxury first class

the plane is going down

if you really want protection from the crash

pack a parachute

( preferably a golden parachute... )

no really...cash... coin... food... seeds .. things of value to trade

lawyerliz wrote:

Have you shot any big game in Africa?

Played rugby which Roosevelt threatened to ban and thus spurred the bastard child of American footbal. Why do you think it is called a touchdown when you don't have to touch it down? Ans: in the true sport you do.

Here's a hoocoodanode on employment:

Employers unexpectedly cut jobs in December - Yahoo! Finance

Unexpected by whom?

I liked the rugby scenes in Invictas, tho I didn't understand
what was going on.

They have edible oatmeal.

Very important. I'm serious.

But reset, according to Michael Hudson, was common in the ancient societies. It must have worked.

Granted, he did state that the creditors in those societies were primarily the govt., whereas now creditors are fellow citizens - does make it more painful.

I'm sure you checked out this link I posted several times. Since I know you value my posts.

Video Michael Hudson, British Economist 

Ha.

To see this in person, sends a chill up your spine...

YouTube - All Black's Haka (Good quality) 

Rob Dawg wrote:

He just said; "Number 17" but he didn't tell it very well. No one laughed.

Had to go back and wade through last thread comments...

"Think how dumb the average person is and remember that half the people are dumber than that."

Some people are so smart the make themselves sick.

The ancient Greek word for that illness was hubris.

Uncle Ar wrote:

Dawg, what about renters?

Renters are God's people. They'll benefit from the rapture. Think about it. With a housing surplus and huge reduction in costs of ownership they'll be able to pick from the lowest cost basis landlords with the best repayment histories. Rents will fall, the best landlords will benefit and the specuvestors will wash out without harming the prudent.

" The Government household survey show 680,000 jobs were lost in December.

I have 2 brother inlaws who just fell off the payroll ( both in the construction field ), one has been trying for weeks to get another extension, and the other is in the same boat. I just got off of the phone with one of them as we hang out and what not, he just told me and I quote " I just called the un-employment office again, and the guy literately told me we cannot help you " No BS. I am sure there are many more like him.

And of course his next question to me was " can I borrow some money "...."

Again, tinder.

I'm glad he did it literately.

At least the guy understood what he was saying.

The distribution of SHLD continues apace, this is like the third time IIRC that it has been at or near the top of the list for selling on strength...
Money Flows: Selling on Strength - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

Alas, there is no normal.

There is merely stuff that goes on for a long time.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Again, tinder.

Would that be tinder for the redistribution of concentrated wealth happening peacefully or through a bloody revolution, using the options that ResistanceIsFeudal proposed above?

Admittedly just a rhetorical question.

Whiskey wrote:

What do you do if you're a Bills fan?

bloviate about the coaching....

Dawg, paying homedebtors already get their handout in the form of tax breaks.

Be my guest.

Your environment may have other ideas.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Conservatives bust trusts and expose corruption and start National Parks.

yabut, what have you done for us lately?

BFF Poll for Fri. January 8th 2010 | Hoocoodanode?

I want the conservatives who are fiscally conservative
and help (force) most everybody else to be that way too.

So where are they?

mock turtle

ive been canoeing on rivers in the puget sound basin for many years

You don't know how to Eskimo Roll in a canoe?

Would that be tinder for the redistribution of concentrated wealth happening peacefully or through a bloody revolution, using the options that ResistanceIsFeudal proposed above?

*Admittedly just a rhetorical question. *

I do not see the US as a country in which 'bloody revolution' will happen. The last one here happened three centuries ago. It's a different era.

I merely spoke, hypothetically, of demagoguery. A mass movement centered around vast promises, morale-boosting rallies and intoxicating slogans, along with an easily grasped summary of resentments. Scapegoats would be indispensable.

dum luk wrote:

energyecon wrote:
The distribution of SHLD continues apace, this is like the third time IIRC that it has been at or near the top of the list for selling on strength...
Money Flows: Selling on Strength - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
Useful, IMHO:
Retail: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly -- Seeking Alpha

Looks like that 13.1% short interest is getting some pressure in an...erm...sensitive location

In a just world, sometime in the future we will see Slumdog painted, just like Shirley Eaton......

SNAFU wrote:

Any articles out there that analyzes why and how?

sometimes we just over think things. What was the most remarkable event of the late 90's early 00's. Fiber optic cables particularly the network established by Global Crossing and copied by so many others. From a communications cost perspective there was no difference between an employee in Bangalore India or one across the river from Manhattan in Jersey city. Add to that you had in places like India economies that hadn't grown much so there were vast pools of qualified talent that could be exploited with the communications revolution. Throw in the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs to China and there is your answer.

I would feel more optimistic about the future (given that growth rates in India have absorbed a lot of the surplus talent) but for the fact that the population there embraces education (not because they want prayer in the schools or teaching creationism) but because they see it as a way forward. So there is a large privae industry in education ( no arguments about vouchers) catering to providing the education necessary for the new economy. So while our education system goes down (while we fight the same tired battles Teachers unions on one side the right wing on the other) both India and China are stepping up their education efforts.

Ironically the one thing that could help jobs and incomes is a big increase in the global price of oil or failing that a carbon tax that is levied on imports.

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:
Conservatives bust trusts and expose corruption and start National Parks.
yabut, what have you done for us lately?

Knowing that you can lead a horse to water for the last century we have allowed you to learn the lessons that cannot be taught so that this young nation never forgets the evils of socialism, liberalism, fundamentalism, oligarchy, bureaucracy, et al. Come back to the true party wayward children, you shall be welcome.

Strangely the formation of the EPA is a seminal event in history yet rarely gets mentioned. You need only ask why and observe the perverted results to understand the reasons for the true conservative long view.

Re: ""We're going to have to work harder to create more jobs," U.S. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis ....

Unemployment remains the Achilles heel of the economic recovery, which started in the third quarter of 2009 following the worst recession in 70 years. Creating jobs is critical to sustaining the economic recovery when government stimulus fades.

For the whole of 2009, the economy shed 4.2 million jobs, according to the Labor Department's survey of employers."

In this post-Dot-Com Bubble, Mom and Pop stores are dead and commercial retail business will never look the same again in our ifetimes, this is a generational shift **that is entirely off the radar (eceptt'n for me) and furthermore, the only employment increase that will increase in this Obama economy, will be **worker retraining jobs at community colleges, where unemployed people will look for ways to rebuild their shattered lives; those jobs at colleges which will help government statistics will be** jobs that pay about $300 per month**. Hence and in closing, America is screwed and the double dip recession is already here -- and obviously it will not be recognized for a loooong time (officially)!!!

lawyerliz wrote:

We could all learn that Maori rugby dance, and line up in
front of gov't buildings and have at it.

The ultimate reach around!

Our dance would be called the 'Hock-a'

people calling for Timmay's resignation (Clusterstock among others)) fail to realize who we get to replace him. Dimon, Summers, Dodd etc. Same story, different day....

Ciao
MS

lawyerliz wrote:

Gnomester, gnomester, sis boom bah, Vote on bank poll, rah, rah, rah.

Is that a Maori chant?

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Strangely the formation of the EPA is a seminal event in history yet rarely gets mentioned. You need only ask why and observe the perverted results to understand the reasons for the true conservative long view.
I've had a chance to observe what happens in a richly endowed country that has no EPA. That country is dying, in more ways than one.

Praise be that archetypical liberal Nixon.

Only a Lizori chant and a poor one at that.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

I merely spoke, hypothetically, of demagoguery. A mass movement centered around vast promises, morale-boosting rallies and intoxicating slogans, along with an easily grasped summary of resentments. Scapegoats would be indispensable.

Yes, I understood your comments, but I happen to think demagoguery has a long standing tradition in the U.S. There's nothing hypothetical about it. It will again be our future in this country.

(balance of comment redacted)

Hoenig? Never happen...at least from the standpoint of implementing his latest "fed must raise rates" mantra.

Ciao
MS

That's the same line of thinking that kept King George II ensconced in power, as who could stomach his replacement?

Bottom line: after all the bailout programs, housing initiatives, rescue efforts, stimulus schemes, bank takeovers, wars, unemployment benefit extensions, and numerous other promises, the biggest financial deception of the decade is what the U.S. government is doing to the dollar. Nothing else even comes close.

This reckless activity has spooked our foreign creditors, weakened our global standing, diluted our currency, is punishing savers and retirees, and ultimately sets us up for a level of inflation this country has never seen before.

Yet, what is the guardian of our economy and money telling us now?

"Will the Federal Reserve's actions to combat the crisis lead to higher inflation down the road? The answer is no; the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping inflation low and will be able to do so. In the near term, elevated unemployment and stable inflation expectations should keep inflation subdued, and indeed, inflation could move lower from here." (Ben Bernanke, December 7, 2009).

This is pure rubbish. If inflation could be controlled by just thinking stable inflation thoughts, then Ben should be able to grow a full head of hair by just thinking scalp follicle thoughts. This is so ridiculous, it's insulting.

Government actions make a mockery of their words; what they say and what they do are diametrically opposed. It's clear that inflation is not a question of if, but when.

Doc Holiday wrote:
WE are living in a generational shift phenomena; there is no economist alive that has a model or understands the ramifications of what's going on (trust me):
And way too many who think they do, which only tends to support your observation

Isn't Ben a member of the heir club for men?

Since it seems I'm too addicted to get any werk done,
I think I will tear myself away, and go to lunch with the
momster.

..............................

GDD9000
Good call on the 80k

Rob Dawg
The idea of the US Treasury chipping in 12 months of mortgage payments goes against your credo, you know? The only way that would be productive is if it accelerated a default on US debt, and thus returned debt:income to a region of stability. In which case there are many superior ways than mortgage payments for the money to be spent. If you just wanted to reward people who didn't borrow and get in trouble, then distribute a $x,000 debit card to anyone who didn't default recently. That would benefit renters and unmortgaged owners who were even more responsible than those with mortgages, furthermore it would not encourage people in proportion to how big their mortgage is.

MS wrote:

I speak from the standpoint that no ONE man is in charge....it's the system that needs to be replaced...good luck with that.

Completely agree. The constitution did not address the smart amoral scumbags winning. It took them 200 years to win. Now what?

I must be losing my mind. I could have sworn that natgas was way above the 5 year average for a while, but now I check the chart and it's only skirting the upper boundary. When did that happen?

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report 

Doc Holiday wrote:

Mom & Pop will go back ino their homes and look for ways to sell shit on line (or themselves); however, they will be taxed,...

Good luck to Mom and Pop trying to figure sales tax for umpteen jurisdictions.

Also expect new "Business and Professions" taxes to catch people who aren't working for BigCorps.

The walmarts of the world will use scale to destroy Mom & Pops and only essential services will be left standing within 2 years. There is no way for Mom & Pop to justify paying a lease in a building where the profit margin will be near zero -- Mom & Pop will go back ino their homes and look for ways to sell shit on line (or themselves); however, they will be taxed

Except that as soon as it is mandated, there will be an incredible business opportunity to provide sales tax look-up services to the small mom and pop. And the infrastructural needs to do so are, frankly, minimal so it doesn't have to cost much of anything. A penny or two per look-up.

It is really hard to crush the little guy on the internet if the little guy understands how the internet works.

Spot on JD

I missed GDD9000's call on 80k last night, but I saw his reference to High School Musical this morning:

YouTube - We're All in This Together

I'm guessing that doesn't count for much.

This is a repeat of an earlier post:

This link gives you all the ETF's broken down by Market Segment, Market Style, Industry Sector, Specialties, all of the Short ETF's and all of the Internationals.

http://www.morpheustrading.com/roundup.html

Today's community service obligation has now been satisfied. Proceed at your own risk.

poic

Son of Social Security Is coming.

Of course they will buy US Treasuries

"Timmay was not involved in AIG coverup" - WhiteHouse

thank you both (EHP & Oxtail) - the picture is not a pretty one, especially when you look at it state by state. The industry by industry look I did afterwards wasnt a whole lot more encouraging.

Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:

"Timmay was not involved in AIG coverup" - WhiteHouse

Where's the Notorious AIG when you need him? He'd clear this up in a jiffy.

I'm glad somebody caught that one..hahaha.

@Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 1/8/2010 - 11:04 am
"Timmay was not involved in AIG coverup" - WhiteHouse

And Obama does not have his head up ______

We Didn't Lose 85,000 Jobs, We Lost 1 Million

Doc Holiday posted: "...Hence and in closing, America is screwed and the double dip recession is already here -- and obviously it will not be recognized for a loooong time (officially)!!! "

And yet industrial production hit its low for the cycle in April, 2009 and has never made another new low since. The ISM indices show that the economy is expanding. GDP shows that the economy is expanding. The 4-week average of new unemployment claims continues to fall from its peak.

This fixation with only the most extreme (bearish) charts and data, to the exclusion of any other data that doesn't "fit", is only going to lead to incorrect conclusions about what's happening/going to happen with the economy. It's a mirror-image of exactly the same mistake that I made during the recession (in denying that there was a recession).

Sebastian

Sebastian wrote:

And yet industrial production hit its low for the cycle in April, 2009 and has never made another new low since.

Hmmm. I thought utilization hit a low in April not production. Am I wrong? Neverthe less you assume the cycle is over.

Your prediction for the possibility of a double dip? 10-20%?

Sebastian,

You never made it to the ranks of being an ex-expert, and haven't seemed to catch onto to the economy's drift, but now you know what you're doing.

I see the little hand has gone past the big 10, so I'm more than an hour late for what passes for work in my life. I like to think of it as my own personal version of 'extend and pretend.' I extend effort and pretend to earn something.

Have a good day, folks, and enjoy your BFF.

looks like Bloomie doesn't read CR:

Census Jobs May Jump-Start U.S. Employment Rebound in 2010 - Bloomberg.com

What's the total # of workers and duration on that supposed to be - (census)?

Sebastian wrote:

It's a mirror-image of exactly the same mistake that I made during the recession (in denying that there was a recession).

I'm beginning to see your point of view and why there's a disconnect with this site's bears.

Your are looking primarily at "the right now" (the transition from recession to recovery). You point out (correctly, I think) that the recession as is "technically" over. I think, however, the reason the bears can't "understand" you is "they" think nothing has been "fixed" and, therefore, in the bear's "near future" there can be no "sustained" recovery. This means you and "the bears" are discussing two DIFFERENT topics at the same time. You say: the recession is over (an event). The bears say: the conditions which caused the recession still exist so a recovery long-term isn't possible.

Seems to me, unless both side explicitly qualify the length of time they are talking about you'll be continuously talking past each other.

dum luk wrote:

This link gives you all the ETF's broken down by Market Segment, Market Style, Industry Sector, Specialties, all of the Short ETF's and all of the Internationals.

http://www.morpheustrading.com/roundup.html 

Very Nice, Thanks!

Sebastian wrote:

This fixation with only the most extreme (bearish) charts and data, to the exclusion of any other data that doesn't "fit", is only going to lead to incorrect conclusions about what's happening/going to happen with the economy.

Economic data and stock market speculation is pointless and I think Bush helped prove that with the Ownership Society. Obama can twist it the other way as well (now), but if you do take a sample of the middle ground, the economy is not going to bounce back and the stock market is not going to go up another 70% this year. To assume that there is symmetry or a mirror image this time will be a mistake! If you disagree, please provide an example of how the trillions lost in the last few years will be re-gained (anytime soon).

The data I proved above indicating that the administration is looking at moving all 401k plans and IRAs into a model to fund the government deficit is another STRONG point indicating that we are in a garden variety recession.

/snark

talk about an inability to see the forest (world-wide credit bust) for the trees (business recession)

sheesh

The Big Picture » Blog Archive » Unemployment Exhaustion Rate = 53.78%, a New High
wow look at the incline of that curve !

I liked it when Seb was trying to shore up the economy singled-handedly, by buying a bunch of consumer crap, being a card-carrying member of the consumeratti, joy joy.

Sebastian wrote:

Rob Dawg said: "I thought utilization hit a low in April not production. Am I wrong?"
You mean to tell me that you're giving me a hard time because you don't know what the facts are?
You just lost a lot of points with me.

I was politely giving you a chance to clarify whether you meant industrial utilization versus gross industrial production before I commented. My deepest apologies for suggesting your comment might possibly have more than one interpretation. I shan't hesitate before attacking in the future seeing as asking for discourse earns me lost points. BTW, thanks for that. I imagine I get three CR points for every lost Seb point . I also know I lose one of the CR points for saying as much.

km4 wrote:

The Big Picture » Blog Archive » Unemployment Exhaustion Rate = 53.78%, a New High
wow look at the incline of that curve !

No, no by considering that graph you are obviously focusing only on the most extremely bearish data, ignoring the and the smoke being blown up your...backside

Rob Dawg wrote:

Ahh but is does reduce outstanding debt and in a fashion that doesn't rely on default.

No, it is the US Treasury -- for whatever reason -- contributing 2 months of principal to someone's mortgage. Where do you think a tax credit comes from? It just transfers the debt from the mortgagee to the Federal government.
For those with negative equity, it won't come close to changing their choice so no multiplier effect. As for what people do with the extra income, they're most likely to save it, so no multiplier effect again.
The people who should be concerned about ensuring loan repayment are the creditors. That's why you consider collateral, debt servicing, income stability, and other risks before the loan so that you have the wiggle room to maintain profits later. Why would you impose a greater burden on work income -- where the government derives its own revenue -- just to subsidize capital income at a time like this? Why should creditors be ranked ahead of the US Federal government?
You're missing a crucial point here, even if everyone repays all their outstanding loans it would severely depress the domestic economy and it would take decades to do, and it would only work if there were other countries able and willing to run big trade deficits to keep the domestic economy from doing the deflationary spiral.
How about this, apply your logic on the mortgages to the state debts. Let's say California got your gospel, and decided to cut spending 30%, and hike taxation 30%. What would happen?
Besides the unemployment checks, one of the major things keeping the economy stable is the money saved on mortgage payments by those agents acting in an economically efficient manner. Having them pay their mortgages instead will not make the situation any better

Re: "This fixation with only the most extreme (bearish) charts and data, to the exclusion of any other data that doesn't "fit", is only going to lead to incorrect conclusions about what's happening/going to happen with the economy. It's a mirror-image of exactly the same mistake that I made during the recession (in denying that there was a recession)."

One more thing .... that is the very same thinking, about mirrors and symmetry that got every quant, analyst and economist in trouble ,,, as well as most investors around the globe, including hedge funds (obviously)! If you look for a pattern in all this, you will be disappointed! The generational shift we are in, is not on the map and the problems and solutions are also off the map, so don't go back to 1981 or 2001 to look for the future .... gotta go!

dum luk wrote:

I concur with your assessment as the existence of a group fixation here.

This isn't the blogs of yore. It isn't fixation or echo chamber, it is a general acceptance range that is retested all the time. It has even been wrong. The Stress Test C-S baseline and extreme case numbers being an obvious example. And please don't include the fun of BFFs or doom wallowing for anything other than socialization.

or I need another hit of YouTube - Quicksilver Messenger Service - Fresh Air

I'm only here to observe the schadenfraud and report back to my superiors, on Saturn.

No JD, mayhaps Jupiter, but not Saturn.

Sebastian wrote:

Meanwhile, other healthier companies will lead us out of recession and into recovery.

Graveyard, meet Whistler.

sued over bonuses
Al Jazeera English - Americas - Goldman Sachs sued over bonuses
New organization aljazeera.net

noob goldberg wrote:

and will not react in the same way as it has in the past.

At least that's what I'm hoping for anyway. Personally, I'm not seeing much difference. I'm betting on a long decline, so a decline should result in behavioral changes. If I don't see any, then I'm wrong.

Sebastian wrote:

For example, the investment banks that got us into this have seen their influence greatly diminished and may take years to "come back" (if they ever do?).

I have seen no evidence of this. I personally think it will be an inevitable outcome, but at the current time their influence appears to be enhanced when contrasted to prior years.

"For example, the investment banks that got us into this have seen their influence greatly diminished and may take years to "come back" (if they ever do?)"

Step AWAY from the bong, slowly. Put the reefer on the ground, and slowly put your hands up.

How on GODS earth can you make the above statement? I truly can't fathom how anyone who reads CR could in all seriousness make the above statement.

You seriously have to be joking, but I didn't see a snark tag ?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Sebastian wrote:

For example, the investment banks that got us into this have seen their influence greatly diminished

Really? I honestly can't think of a time when the societal dominance of large investment banks (JPM and GS in particular) was more clear.

Sebastian wrote:

Also the "survivorship bias" that dryfly and I have alluded to. For example, the investment banks that got us into this have seen their influence greatly diminished and may take years to "come back" (if they ever do?). Meanwhile, other healthier companies will lead us out of recession and into recovery.

OMG. Words fail. We have 19 TBTFs that you would call healthy and some of us would call perpetual millstones around our necks. To lead us out of rescession we need... I don't know what we need but I do know it is not financialization.