Taiwan was mostly the only China exporting to us, in the early 1980's...

Whole different situation now~

CR, what about interest rates? Do those correlate?
Also, was there nearly as much government intervention in the last two housing declines? Or did things 'naturally' decline?

10% "inflation" cures all problems. The trick will be to hide it. Ideally, "they" want 3% (like usual) plus that extra/magical/new hidden amount that doesn't show-up in "the stats" until "the future" when it will "spontaneously appear".

As sad as it is to admit, I'm happy that I work in a FIRE sector. The current belief that high asset prices will generate a strong economy (instead of vice versa) benefits me greatly.

Portland investment firm buys KOIN Center | Oregon Business News - OregonLive.com

Calpers defaults on a building loan and Chinese money buys it up as a short sale (Note the link is misleading as the firm is more Chinese then from Portland). Calpers loses about $38 million in two years.

Wouldn't it be easier if we just sold China California in a short sale and call it even.

This also suggests that real house prices are probably 10% or more too high on a national basis. - CR

It's the 'national basis' thing that doesn't make sense to me. Some areas are getting better, some as staying the same or getting worse. Some areas seem to have sunk a new level in the pit of hell. Does that mean we need more stimpack money on a 'national basis?' I hope not. And other than national policy, averaging out the country is like averaging out Europe. You get some numbers, but they don't reflect what's really going on. The big issue, IMO is the stress and conflict among the states as some get better and some don't. There may be resistance to bailout of any particular state at the expense of the others.

Seems to me that graph shows unemployment possibly peaked which would show home prices probably just slightly overvalued. Draw a line on house prices without the noise and it's rising steadily. That gives the perception that prices are close to stabilization.

JP wrote:

I am a dumb guy: I still do not understand why folks are expecting real house prices to stay above the 90s trough.

Govt intervention. Baby boomers spent almost all their wages, but expect to get retirements and health benefits later in life. And there are lots of boomers, and they perfected in 1960's and 1970's how to agitate politically for what you want.

Housing appreciation in excess of wages since the 1970's is the boomer ticket to retire.

What if some stocks were as illiquid as homes are now...

How would you price them?

JP wrote:

I still do not understand why folks are expecting real house prices to stay above the 90s trough.

By "folks", do you mean the banks (and TPTB) or real Mericans?

If banks: they need housing prices to stay high because otherwise they are flat broke.
If real Mericans: they need housing prices to stay high because otherwise they are flat broke.

So, everybody is hoping Ben and Tim's plan works. Otherwise, Hu knows what will happen.

fudge_hend wrote:

Portland investment firm buys KOIN Center | Oregon Business News - OregonLive.com

The tower boasts 411,000 square feet of office and retail space and one of downtown's most recognizable buildings. It is home to First American Title Insurance, lucy activewear, Willis of Oregon, ECONorthwest and KOIN-TV.

With tenants like that, what could possibly go wrong?

Luuuceee -- you got some 'splainin' to do . . .

HarryWanger wrote:

That gives the perception that prices are close to stabilization.

Assuming that boomers converting housing to income (aka retirement funding) can sell their houses to the below 30 year-old suckers; even tho there's been 30 years of falling real wages.

patientrenter wrote:

Govt intervention. etc

Key word in my post: "Real". Gov't intervention can occur in all sorts of ways, but since that money needs to come from somewhere, I would expect inflation to outstrip any house price gains.

Actually NaRm, I mean anyone who talks about real prices. I believe that excludes "real Mericans."

scone wrote:

The Repubs could use this as a wedge better than the Dems, IMO.

But, it would have to be the "don't bailout CaLi, NV, AZ, FL, NY, & NJ" platform. There's lot's of votes in these states. All of them need a bailout.

JP wrote:

I believe that excludes "real Mericans."

Oh, real prices! Bah, who needs real anything anymore.

Karl Case (of Case-Shiller), who was famously optimistic about RRE prices bouncing back, has seen nothing but massive gains from RRE in his personal life. It's no wonder he thinks it's a can't-lose investment, and can't understand when the worm has turned.

In his own words, in 2009: "We had a 1930s centre-entrance colonial nearby, where we lived from 1976 until I traded up in 1991. I bought it for $56,000 and sold it for $230,000. I bought this one for $392,000 and maybe it’s worth something like $1m now."

FT.com / House & Home - ‘A house is part of your being’

Baby boomers in this situation (and they are running most of our institutions now) simply cannot understand that it is impossible in the long run for RRE prices to beat growth in nominal household incomes. This guy Case is a highly educated economist, but this faith in RRE's ability to defy gravity forever is embedded in the psyche of the Greatest Generation and the earlier Baby Boomers, because it has worked for them for their entire homeowning lifetimes. And many of them are depending on it for their retirements, because they didn't save very much.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

it seemed like all the money in the world at the time, my how time flies...

That hidden/magical inflation again. It's like "the force". I'm starting to feel it (I think).

And how many homeowners CAN'T sell because of devaluation, 2nd's, and maybe even several equity lines used (some for home improvement possibly)... Can't sell for what's owed, can't re-fi, can't mod; 'can't' is the New Normal.
Unemployment closes the re-fi/mod options. Walking away will remain the last best option if the short sale option doesn't work or is not even tried.

California needs $30 Billion from the Feds.

The usual solution to a bankrupt municipality or county is to dissolve it legally and give the land area to adjacent regions. The problem with California is, the adjacent states are small and relatively poor. You could cut Cali into 2 or more smaller states, especially since NoCal hates SoCal anyway, and give bits of the north to the People's Republic of Cascadia. But I'm not sure anyone really wants the Central Valley.

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

But, it would have to be the "don't bailout CaLi, NV, AZ, FL, NY, & NJ" platform.

I've gotta agree with NaRm here. There are enough big fish in that list to make blocking all forms of bailouts at the national level seem like a naive prayer at best. Just like the Senator from the midwest who got 100% reimbursements for his critical vote in the health care reform debacle of 2009, I cannot see how politicos in D.C. don't smack their chops at the thought of their kinsmen begging and groveling for Federal bailout money so they can keep their job.
.
Fun times.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

California needs $30 Billion from the Feds.

They need almost twice that, $43.5b ± a few billion. The asking for $30b is in hopes of $20b overt, $6-8b ongoing covert/indirect, a balanced flow of funds and backstopping of new debt.

Won't happen. The Bond vigilantes are saddled up and ready to ride roughshod over any Golden Bear Chits.

Yeah...let's blame it all on the babyboomers and the Roaring 20's boomers and the boomers before that, etc.

Hu's deal: Formosa for mo credit.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Bring them into PBGC as the ransom for a California rescue and cradle to grave socialism is within sight.

With a pension cap of $60K. Done!

Dawg,
We are witnessing the 'long march through the existing institutions'...

patientrenter wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:
Won't happen. The Bond vigilantes are saddled up and ready to ride roughshod over any Golden Bear Chits
So the chits will get a Fed guarantee. C'mon, Dawg, it's past wake-up time there on the West Coast.

That's what I said; "...and backstopping of new debt."

The role model you would want if you were a latter-day Emperor Norton, would be Rough and Ready, Ca.

It seceded from the Union in 1850 for about 3 months.

yagij,
Thought the 60's was Peace and Love (and hippie merchandising) until Altamont?

merchants of fear wrote:

Thought the 60's was Peace and Love (and hippie merchandising) until Altamont?

Detroit burned. Kent State had a few deaths. Dogs & Hoses were set loose in the South. Vet protests in political centers.
.
Maybe for white middle class youngsters was it about Peace & Love, but when you look at the entirety of the social fabric, it was more violent and had more upheaval than anything I've witnessed in the past 15-20 years (Rodney King aside)

merchants of fear wrote:

Dawg,
We are witnessing the 'long march through the existing institutions'...

I loved the new contract the Simi Police officers just accepted. Screw the newbies. Split retirement and health care benefits.

government intervention slows.

always the jokester

The 'long march' is speeding up.

poic wrote:

Revolt, Sit Out and Demonstrate

I can see it now: Gen-Xer's sitting outside the Fannie Mae building to protest against FNM's continued efforts to keep home prices too high, and Barney Frank ordering the Capitol Police to smash through them so his appointees can keep handing out more loans. Ah, the irony! But, of course, that could never happen, because the boomers own the rebel mantle, and are always right.

merchants of fear wrote:

Guaranteed this is coming back.

Millions of Mericans are taking prescription mood-altering drugs now, and the Pharma industry loves it.

Although I never quite knew what Soma was, actually, in Brave New World, it sounds like a Pfizer product.

JimPortlandOR wrote:

Although I never quite knew what Soma was, actually, in Brave New World, it sounds like a Pfizer product.

Wash it down with a Moke.

Check out you tube for a Cracker video called "Turn On, Tune in, Drop Out, With Me". Great new social commentry including lines about granite, Corian, big brother, etc.

yagij wrote:

it takes ingredients, time, and a slow-cooking heat.

don't forget that you have to continually stir the pot as well.

"Sit and wait."

Sit and wait sounds kind of like apathy imo. Which is what's happening right now. Politicians don't listen to apathy, but they do listen to noisy demonstrations, they do listen to mortgage walk-away en-masse, they do listen to disruptions. There's a lot they listen to but apathy isn't one of them.

CaptainMorgan wrote:

Go plug that into an inflation calculator, not as impressive as it seems, but not too shabby either.

And yet the obvious unsustainability of it, the pent-up need to revert to the mean, is glossed over by Case, Bernanke, Summers.... I am afraid that there is a little bit of that famous self-interested "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!"

"Make Loan, Not War "

How about "Where's my free pony?" or "Hu's your Daddy?"

It's too bad "Bonus Marches" is already taken.

Interesting inverse correlation vis a vis unemployment, but I wonder if you'd see as much or more from the mid-90s forward with a similar overlay of the NASDAQ Composite or QQQQs?

The computer is the new 'opium of the masses'.

Well, off to see the hottie barristas at the coffee shop. Unfortunately one of them called me "Sir" yesterday. What a let-down.

Credit as 'opium of the masses' is expiring.

Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid - Yahoo! News

""People's lives are at stake. We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would allow to prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people,"

>

There is always hoocodanode to blame.

Good point peAk 'bout the 'doctored' numbers.

This also suggests that real house prices are probably 10% or more too high on a national basis.

I think it is fair to say the home ATM will remain broken in 2010. In the salad years during the middle of the decade it was kicking out $600- 800 billion/year of MEW which flowed through the economy fueling job growth. The best chart I saw all year was Maudlin's of real GDP with MEW and ex-MEW for this decade. Without MEW GDP was negative for two years and only once grew over 1% (2006). With Stimpack on the fade what is going to be the catalyst for next years 5% real GDP the markets have already priced in??

We could always act like the BBs did in the 60s. Revolt, Sit Out, Hate, and Demonstrate. It would be fitting to make 'em eat their own dog food just as they did it to their elders.

What percentage of the baby boomers actually participated in the demonstrations you're referring to?

My guess is that if the draft is reinstated, whatever generations believe they're subject to the draft, will resist in some way, even if it's only to twitter madly & frequently on the issue (which will be soooo effective). And if they don't their parents might march or do whatever they can to stop the military from taking their precious offspring away Some would, anyway.

Here's a look at today's version of "employment" for some:

Having a job, or more, is far from enough - The Boston Globe

Note that the comments to the article reflect some of the POVs expressed here.

Post Federalized California landscape:
PC Pacifica California SF pennisula and environs. (PC as in Politcally Correct)
MC Centro California Central Valley, mountains. (America's Vegatable Drawer.)
AC Alta California Northern counties. (Big High Country.)
CC Costa California Ventura to Monterey - Tehachapis/Coastal Range.
CA Crap Angeles California LA, Orange, Riverside, Antelope Valley, San Berdoo.
IC Imperial California San Diego, Imperial and environs.

That's six from one. 10 new Senators and about 14 new Representatives stolen from other States under the current Electoral formula.

Really? Where has this happened?

During the Depression, lots of towns and cities went bankrupt. At least, that's how my history professors taught it. (But now that you mention it, I can't recall a really big, famous city going under.) That's how Chapter 9 got started, a bankruptcy law specifically for municipalities.

Here's the quickie on it: What Happens When City Hall Goes Bankrupt? : NPR

azurite wrote:

What percentage of the baby boomers actually participated in the demonstrations you're referring to?

Hardly anyone in my family (that I know of) enjoyed BB Love Child fun in the 60s, but the grandparents have enjoyed financial support from the gov't and their children in ways I will probably never enjoy (and neither will my parents)

azurite,
The demonstrations in the 60's drew a lot of curious onlookers or bystanders just like the G-20 events and everyone in the way of the 'Riot Police' gets beat up, arrested, or tear gassed whether they are demonstrating or not. The name 'Riot Police' means that the police usually start the riots.

"heehee. In college I grew a 'stache to avoid being carded. When the 'sirs' started I, er, shaved 5 years off my life. "

No mustache and still getting the Sir from Cutie #2. Sigh...

I compared my state's (NC) historical unemployment rate with California's, along with their respective housing prices (via Case-Shiller data).

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Historically it looks as though both California's unemployment rate peaks and its housing market starts to "recover" a year or more after my state's (NC looks as though moves pretty close to the national average).

Sebastian

NaRm,
The 60's wasn't what it was cut out to be...just more reasons for centralized power grabs and laws...build up of the police apparatus, etc.

poic wrote:

One wife is enough thank you very much.

Makes you wonder why polygamists actively seek their lifestyle, eh?

azurite wrote:

What percentage of the baby boomers actually participated in the demonstrations you're referring to?

The 60's were also, mostly, a media created myth. The demonstrators were mostly young extroverted liberals. Large swaths of the young population (the REAL majority) resented "the hippies" that were involved with overthrowing Merica.

NOTaREALmerican wrote:
That hidden/magical inflation again. It's like "the force". I'm starting to feel it (I think).
Oh, you have felt the stirrings in The Farce, too. You're becoming psycho.

Probably half of the 'protest' demonstrators in tea parties or 60's demonstrations are hired by special interests with agendas or are government workers.

Seb, the link shows just a list of states at bls.gov-- that can't be what you meant. Unless it's a joke?

Seb,

I think the biggest beef people have that are actually aware is that the boomer generation is spending the FUTURE wealth of subsequent generations. Big difference then envy over not having EARNED wealth. It's the stolen/phantom ponzi wealth that should be protested.

poic wrote:
Most of the time that just turns out to be a touch of gas for me.
Shouldn't the FIRE economy be called the Air economy?

don't feed the troll...chop his head off , let it land on the pitchfork

When I was a kid playing pinball, something in the high 3-figures (850) would get you a replay, and if you can find a pinball machine today, it's probably closer to 30 million for a replay.

patientrenter wrote:

The draft was the youth revolt of the 1960's and 1970's

Yes and no. Try watching this sometime and then explain the motives of the middle class cadres who went beserk if you can. No draft in West Germeny, right?

The notion that the older generation had the ability to stop the politicians from stealing money from the social security fund - is naive. Who held the power to stop the Republicans from passing Medicare Part D benefits without funding them.

If you want to protest something - protest the theft of democracy - and a lotta good that will do ya. donchano

Sebastian wrote:

Historically it looks as though both California's unemployment rate peaks and its housing market starts to "recover" a year or more after my state's (NC looks as though moves pretty close to the national average).

Historically the Wright model B never missed a recession call either. You are falling into the same trap again. Repeat after me: "this time is unlike any other previous time ever." All past correlates do not even associate this time.

"Repeat after me: "this time is unlike any other previous time ever." All past correlates do not even associate this time. "

Actually this time is EXACTLY like any other credit-bust induced recession. It is not like any business cycle recession and using historical models based on business cycle recessions will lead to faulty conclusions.

Barney Frank commenting on a protest by the Gay community in DC earlier this year (I can't remember what for) said that protests are a waste of time, completely. I believe him. Since when have protests accomplished much of anything...since the 60s/70s? Politicians don't need to listen, they have near life-terms in office as their political clout is financed by and for special interest. To run a campaign on a state or federal level costs gigantic bucks for advertising, etc. to even get notice. So by the time one declares their candidacy, they've already been 'bought' so to speak.

Okay,Rob. "This time is unlike any other previous time ever." But when things do eventually recover, it'll happen in my state and on a nationwide basis at least a year before it takes hold on California.

Happy?

Sebastian

I'm not in charge of hats and I'm awful sorry to re-post. I was sort of following through on my previous crap which was somewhat related to the topic of loans that are linked to crap...

I should have been given a red hat to wear as a badge of dis-honor and it is almost impossible to get a news post on the blog here as a hat tip; I think you have to call CR on a special phone line and then get set up to be the first poster, then your given a salute, handshake and then, I think you can put your hand into the grab-bag; not sure though, as policy sometimes is unclear??

poic wrote:

"Repeat after me: "this time is unlike any other previous time ever." All past correlates do not even associate this time. "
Actually this time is EXACTLY like any other credit-bust induced recession. It is not like any business cycle recession and using historical models based on business cycle recessions will lead to faulty conclusions.

Thank you for the clarification. Yes. It will be interesting however to see if the business cycle recession we are about to enter looks like past recessions or whether the credit collapse event is so recent and far reaching that even the business cycle stops behaving predictably.

Dawg, just trying to pre-empt the "so you're saying this time is special" reply.

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

that protests are a waste of time, completely

well, let's get our history out in the daylight.

Is there any doubt that the massive, multi-city, multi-day street marches led to a change in the US gov't policy on Vietnam? LBJ not running for a second term because of his war record? Nixon promising to end the war? It did take a long time before Kissinger allowed a peace accord to be signed and the US departed ingloriously, but the protests DID change the policy..

Oh i wasn't upset, just wondering how come the little red hat thingy wasn't working...

I was asking for an example Jim, since that period of time in our history. I'd be happy actually to hear of one. I think protests should be paid attention to but it appears to me that in the past 30 years or so, not so much as during the 60/70s.

CK,

I was interested in red hats as well, but they are a signal to others that the story has already been posted, thus, since you were apparently the first to post, you would not be given a hat; I'm the one who should have been given the hat, but it seems the hat police are not at work filtering this stuff. I'm nonetheless happy your not upset, and thus, I hope your day remains positive!

Economists have identified some similiarties between the Great Recession credit bubble/bust and the Great Depression credit/bubble bust but the financialization products are more complex and numerous as are the suckers to fleece...

Which economists are you referring to - link please.

What happens to the nation if California, Florida, Nevada, Michigan, et.al., don't recover for a decade or two and the other states gradually begin to see them as 'failed states' holding the rest of the Union back?

I think you missed a point, azurite. The draft was the youth revolt of the 1960's and 1970's - the baby boomer issue.

My point was that the baby boomer generation, like so many generations, was not just all one thing. Not everyone behaved the same way or had the same experience. My grandparents had dramatically different experiences in life: on one side, my highly educated grandfather could not get a job in his field because: (1) he was Jewish; (2) the Austrian economy after WWI. He eventually built up a business, which he effectively lost after Anschluss and he, his wife &child fled to the US--a cousin sponsored them. He was able to get a job immediately because of his excellent education, he worked until he was 72, invested wisely, was always a renter. My other grandfather had a 6th grade education, widowed mother whose 2nd husband was an abusive alcoholic, lived in northeastern TX. Worked on a RR most of his life, a stroke in his 60's apparently rendered him uncontrollable & he finished his life in an "asylum."

Same generation, two very different experiences.

The US is a big places & despite some standardization via TV, chains, et al it was & is still very possible to have very different life experiences here. That is MY point, which those who categorize an entire generation seem to have missed.

I hadn't realized that the civil rights movement was not "really" an issue for any of the baby boomer generation and here I thought it really mattered to those who participated, including a few people I knew.

Given the growth in income inequality in the US over the past 15 years or more, how would it be possible for an entire large generation to experience the benefits which you claim?

Sorry,

Merchant of fear wrote:

Economists have identified some similiarties between the Great Recession credit bubble/bust and the Great Depression credit/bubble bust but the financialization products are more complex and numerous as are the suckers to fleece...

Which economists are you referring to - link please.

"Then your beef is with CR, who started it with his blog relating house prices and the unemployment rate."

No at all. Look at house prices and unemployment during the 30s and the correlation holds.

But your attempt to correlate relationships between states without looking at the 30s, the last credit-induced recession is flawed.

Again, why are you only looking at business cycle recessions when we are in a credit-bust induced recession dropped on top of a business cycle recession?

And to be clear I didn't say that your attempt to compare state-by-state was rubbish. What I said was your conclusions will be flawed if you only look at business cycle recessions.

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

Politicians don't need to listen, they have near life-terms in office as their political clout is financed by and for special interest.

That's exactly correct, nanoo-nanoo. But politicians have to translate all that money they get into votes. If it becomes clear to them that a lot of votes will be determined over issues that they aren't getting money on, they will pay attention. So activism and collective action still can have an impact.

I think Mr Frank was getting tired of gay rights activists making large amounts of noise when they have long since made their point, and are a known quantity. If you already know 8% of the population will vote based on Issue X, then reminding people of that 8% noisily and forever loses its marginal impact. But right now there is ZERO recognition of a voter bloc opposed to high home prices and other asset prices, and no recognition that this is an issue of intergenerational fairness and economic efficiency. So there is an opportunity.

Doc Holiday wrote:

...it is almost impossible to get a news post on the blog here as a hat tip; I think you have to call CR on a special phone line and then get set up to be the first poster, then your given a salute, handshake and then, I think you can put your hand into the grab-bag; not sure though, as policy sometimes is unclear??

Over on the secret board submissions are reviewed by the central commentariat and vetted for topicality and submitter. Those from "outside" are rarely entertained. Or so I've heard.

In truth CR has always been receptive and responsive. We owe him a great deal and let him get a little rest from time to time.

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

it appears to me that in the past 30 years or so, not so much as during the 60/70s.

It is true that the media tends to ignore mass protests now, making them less effective. But, recall the massive protests before Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld invasion of Iraq. If BCR had not been outright lying to the public about intelligence on WMD, perhaps that preemptive invasion based on lies could be been stopped. But once again, the media ignored the facts, parroted the lies, and we got the war that BCR wanted even before 9/11.

I don't think it will happen, but Vietnam/Iraq-scale protests of the bankster holdup of the public would lead to change in the principals, if not all of the policy. The problem is that finance is too complicated to be widely understood (and therefore protested). A targeted rage-fest at banksters might work however.

dum luk,
Are you serious? I think the commentariet here is generally sick of me posting nunerous links to economic papers and theories looking at currency crises, financial crises, deflationary cycles, contagion, systemic risk, structural imbalances, RE bust in the late 20's and 30's, etc.
Just posted some work by Irving Fisher yesterday. I saved all of it though and can start posting everything all over again.

Wow, I start to understand the ire at Sebastian. Thank you, patientrenter, for pointing out the Obvious. Seb, i've got to make you my token argument against the concept that free markets reward the competent and punish the inept.

I think the commentariet here is generally sick of me posting nunerous links to economic papers and theories looking at currency crises, financial crises, deflationary cycles, contagion, systemic risk, structural imbalances, RE bust in the late 20's and 30's, etc.

Not sick at all.

optimism is one thing.
blind insane optimism that ignores rational arguments/facts/figures is entirely another.

same thing on the doomster side.

Doc Holiday wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:
We owe him a great deal
Yah -- he is our leader, all praise; Heather be thy name!

ROTFL! Obscure movie quote of the day.

What happens to the nation if California, Florida, Nevada, Michigan, et.al., don't recover for a decade or two and the other states gradually begin to see them as 'failed states' holding the rest of the Union back?

Bonus material: YouTube - Heather

? YouTube - Twas The Night Before Christmas

that there are factors that make it different from other states

like fresh arugula in February.

Farm states will survive the best as the need to eat never ends, low populations. Economies here never really boom or bust.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

Farm states will survive the best as the need to eat never ends, low populations. Economies here never really boom or bust.

It does seem that boom/bust requires sun-shine and suckers.

LoserBeachBum - Aerobatic / Skybolt. Quite cheap actually...

Those do look nice, but it is the upkeep that will kill you.
SS bolt for your house. 50 cents.
SS bolt for your bike. $2
SS bolt for your boat. $10
SS bolt for you plane. $50

azurite wrote:

Given the growth in income inequality in the US over the past 15 years or more, how would it be possible for an entire large generation to experience the benefits which you claim?

Not every individual will experience the same thing, azurite, as you point out. Yet individual variation does not preclude the utility of averages. And averages do differ by group. I never claimed that every member of any generation had the same experience as all the other members. That would be patently ridiculous. Yet the experience of some generations is, in the aggregate, different from others. Consider those who were born in the 1920's. Was their childhood different from those born in the 1980's? Well, maybe nothing terribly useful can be said about any one individual in the one group versus any other individual in the other group, but the two groups, as a whole, obviously have different experiences, as measured by averages.

There was an unprecedented growth in US asset prices in the years since the 1970's, well beyond the growth in incomes. That did trigger some generational differentiation that is quite significant, as measured by aggregates/averages. The winners are mostly those in the Greatest Generation and the early boomers. The losers are mostly to be found amongst the post-boomers and the late boomers.

Farm states will survive the best as the need to eat never ends, low populations. - LBD

When I drove across country a couple of weeks ago, the only farm state that seemed to be doing well was Iowa. The others looked pretty devastated. The states with a diverse economy and enough population to have a decent customer base looked better by comparison. Just sayin.'

OT

Ms Dowd is on fire today!

"
If we can’t catch a Nigerian with a powerful explosive powder in his oddly feminine-looking underpants and a syringe full of acid, a man whose own father had alerted the U.S. Embassy in Nigeria, a traveler whose ticket was paid for in cash and who didn’t check bags, whose visa renewal had been denied by the British, who had studied Arabic in Al Qaeda sanctuary Yemen, whose name was on a counterterrorism watch list, who can we catch?
"

OP-ED COLUMNIST; As the Nation’s Pulse Races, Obama Can’t Seem to Find His - NY Times

St. Louis isn't alone in its suffering, of course. In fact, we've suffered less than the nation as a whole. The metro area has lost 3.7 percent of its jobs since the recession began two years ago, compared with a 5.1 percent job loss nationwide.
We seem to have fallen back into a familiar pattern: We don't grow much in good times, but we weather the slumps relatively well.

Economy here took some big hits in 2009 - STLtoday.com

broward said: "Seb, i've got to make you my token argument against the concept that free markets reward the competent and punish the inept."

I think my points are often misinterpreted, because they are in conflict with the exceptions. In general, in the overall, free markets do reward the competent and punish the inept. However, like our justice system, the guilty sometimes get off, the innocent wind up in jail, and the MSM draw an inordinate amount of attention to those exceptions and make them appear to be the norm.

I would argue that if the free markets didn't reward the competent and punish the inept, there wouldn't be anything to steal.

Sebastian

SNAFU wrote:

who can we catch?

80 yo grandmas in their wheelchairs and portable oxygen! They don't get very far.
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Seriously, who here did not foresee these problems when we got a "Homeland Security" monster dropped on our heads and we federalized under-paid/under-qualified mall cops posing as airport security? sighs

Nanoo Nanoo:We'll all be from CA then and paying taxes for CA while our own states will be stressed similarly.

You should really take a look at what states give in to the federal government vs. what they get back, your point of view may change. There is a website with all kinds of interesting graphs / statistics listing this if I can find it....

Reader Poll on Economic Outlook

yagij wrote:

got a "Homeland Security" monster dropped on our heads and we federalized under-paid/under-qualified mall cops posing as airport security?

Hey, stop insulting my retirement plan.

Sebastian wrote:

I would argue that if the free markets didn't reward the competent and punish the inept, there wouldn't be anything to steal

Markets reward the average and the normal, and punish the outliers.

Sitting in your house with little knowledge and betting on the previous outcome, is a better strategy than understanding the underpinnings of what is happening and trying to time it.

Thanks! Let's see if it worked.