broward (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 12/29/2009 - 12:10 pm
The US runs on lies, who the best liar is and who is friends with what liars.
I've seen it explode over the past fifteen years. It's in corporations, gov't, everywhere.
It's all about gladhanding and lying, which is why we have a lot of fake financials and loan defaults, etc, etc.
Basically, yes. We're already a third-world country, in effect.

In my Galileo's daughter book, the daughters seem to be ok as far as
clothes and shelter were concerned (lengths of silk being shared were mentioned)
but the letter-writing daughter keeps complaining of not enough food. Until at the
end when someone left the convent a farm as a legacy.

The daughter mentions this over and over again, somewhat to my bewilderment,
since he seems to have sent her money when she wanted to buy into a better
convent room. Then in reading the Great Wave, there were a lot of years with
not much food grown.

She died at only 33 or 34. And SHE PULLED OUT HER OWN TEETH, including
a specifically mentioned rotten molar. I suspect she has severe, multiple
nutritional deficiencies, which were probably so common as to be unremarkable.

Maybe she would have had to share any food with her numerous sisters that dad sent and it would have been
prohibitvely expensive to feed them all.

And Boston is the best, only 15% down.

Daughter lives in Winthrop, anybody know about that area
specifically.

Amazing what a couple trillion of government intervention will buy...

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

In the end, to fit into any society, a person needs (no exceptions NEEDS) self-delusion (the ability to live more than one parallel "perfect moral" life) or duplicity. I think it might be easier to develop self-delusion than duplicity.

I have recently started to appreciate how much religion can help in this regard.

My daughter tore down her shack and is in the final throes
of rebuilding. House has a view of the bay from the 3rd
floor. NIMBY neighbors tried to block her building, for no
particular reason. She's living in it while doing a lot herself
and finishing up the contractor work. Wrong time to do
it I suppose (shack was paid off), but she is an architect and
didn't want to live in a shack forever. (It really was a shack
and couldn't even be heated sufficiently; 450 sq feet)

She still has her job!!

Has anyone read John Perkins book Hood Winked?

Whoever says the Fed doesn't know how to fly didn't look at this chart... HERE.

"Pull up, pull up - we're gonna crash!!!"

VRROoooooommm!!!

"Nice flying Ben!!!"

There aren't any normal people Pavel..

You know that.

Most people haven't any interesting thoughts about matters philosophical. I
know; I've asked.

Everything's looking great, and ING just sent me this:

Warm up your home with savings this holiday season with Easy Orange. With a 5-year fixed rate loan at 3.750% (3.764% APR) and free bi-weekly payments, you'll save thousands in interest and own your home sooner.

Why would you not own a home right now?

Oh, glod, that is just asking for a computer nightmare.

But they probably couldn't sell the loan.

cryptogon.com » National Irish Bank Moves to Cashless Banking (Not The Onion)

Rob Dawg wrote:

What the heck good is economic analysis?

Better yet what IS good economic analysis - hint its what the eats.

shill wrote:

cryptogon.com » National Irish Bank Moves to Cashless Banking (Not The Onion)

Cashless banking sounds like bankless banking.

JimPortlandOR wrote:
Cashless banking sounds like bankless banking.
Hush that mouth! We need banks to intercede with Fed for us on our behalf.

You even point out directly contrary beliefs and all you get is confusion,
when you don't get tears. I once made a Jehovah's witness cry, because she
was saying the world was going to end in such a short time that her kids
didn't have to go to college (this was in '73 about), and I said I was more for
black people than she was, since without the degree they couldn't be drs
or lawyers or whatever.

Her 2 core beliefs--black people should progress-- and the religion sez the
end is nigh and one should act on that belief--college not necessary--came into
direct and violent conflict, which she couldn't and didn't resolve. Just cried.

I liked her; didn't want her to cry. She needed her fairy tales to survive, mentally.

I wish I could believe in fairies, it would be very soothing, but I just can't.

This means that either I just can't absorb anything transcendental OR I just
can't force myself to belief stuff that my mind insists is illogical nonsense.

I tried to force myself to believe in Catholicism; didn't work. Painful.

Sorry Pavel.

Off to lunch.

why-it-may-pay-to-convert-to-a-roth-ira: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance

Income limit for Roth IRA conversions happens to change next year.

Research Recap » Blog Archive » “Bad Bank” Model May be Best Exit from Financial Crisis for Many Banks

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

duplicity is a sign of maturity in people and these mature people rule the earth

bullshit

token bull wrote:

Shadow inventory is huge.

There are still many issues facing the housing market. While the existing home market has improved considerably, the new home market remains challenged. Inventories in the existing home market, while improved, remain elevated and the always present threat of shadow inventory continues to loom. As such, it is more than likely that prices have a bit further to fall which should help continue supply/demand rebalancing and help fix the ongoing issues in the housing market. — Dan Greenhaus, Miller Tabak

Economists React: ‘Prices Have Further to Fall’ - Real Time Economics - WSJ

"Another thing: wait until the option arms recast. I've got colleagues that are planning to sell in 2011 because they will be foreclosed on otherwise. Shadow inventory is huge."

I don't think OA recasts will be a big deal, nearly half are already delinquent.

But shadow inventory is huge, just based on the (growing) size of the delinquency inventory. Historically, half of delinquencies are cured. In the current situation much fewer than half will cure, but even taking that 50% number, the amount of homes that should be on the market but are not is easily a year of supply.

what is interesting is house prices are better than the stress tests, but unemployment is worse.

i think that is no coincidence.

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

i think that is no coincidence.

Well, if they had subsidized labor they way they have house prices... If only TBTF had loaded up on employment CDS futures instead...

the higher rates go, the more taxes will have to increase eventually to pay for the interest on the debt.

compound interest is a bitch when you are a debtor.

either that or your dollars will be diluted.

neither is a positive outcome.

too bad the debt wasn't adding value, but it is not.

ac wrote:

Marketwatch: Treasury sells 5-year notes at highest yield since July

"Indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 44% of the sale, compared to a recent average of 48.2%."

That does not make sense to me. There were more buyers, but they paid a higher price?

Blackhalo wrote:

That does not make sense to me. There were more buyers, but they paid a higher price?

"We have one who can see..."

Blackhalo wrote:

That does not make sense to me. There were more buyers, but they paid a higher price?

Higher Yield => Lower Price

Makes perfect sense... less CB buy means more private money but only at a lower buy in price & higher yield.

shill wrote:

Good read.

Particularly to me:

"The fact that the Treasury can't actually identify the one of the largest buyer of its debt can't help but raise a few eyebrows.
Can you imagine a private company that couldn't identify its largest customer? Can you imagine a government who couldn't identify its largest creditor? Oh wait...It's beyond suspicious.
Are these phantom creditors hedge funds? Probably not.

It makes a person wonder if the Fed and/or Treasury hasn't been involved in either some shady accounting tricks, or hidden monetization of debt. Even if the these are legitimate investors, is it realistic to expect a savings-poor America will increasingly buy these Treasury bonds that yield almost no interest?"

dryfly wrote:

Higher Yield => Lower Price

Ah, thanks! I tend to get yield and price mixed up. So, a remarkably successful bond sale then. Banks cleaning up for EOY accounting?

ac wrote:

Makes perfect sense... less CB buy means more private money but only at a lower buy in price & higher yield.

Sounds right to me.

That's how you avoid auction failures - let the yields go. It is actually good news in a perverse pain-feels-good sort of a way... less CB intervention, more private money back in the game... even if rates go higher. Prolly the most 'optimistic' thing I've read in months. Scratch 'prolly' - it IS.

Rob Dawg wrote:

In 2012 everyone who was 50 or older in 2004 will be looking to sell at least one of their houses.

That seems a little overstated. I was 58 in 2004 and have no interest in selling in 2012. I'll be here until I can't climb stairs anymore. Of course, I only have one house.

MaryAnn wrote:

Would like for China to sue GS for FRAUD

That would be like China suing US govt., won't it?

well, been wearing my DOW 10.5K hat a few days

good times

That's how you avoid auction failures - let the yields go. It is actually good news in a perverse pain-feels-good sort of a way... less CB intervention, more private money back in the game... even if rates go higher. Prolly the most 'optimistic' thing I've read in months. Scratch 'prolly' - it IS.

Well things get interesting if the bond market is currently underestimating the amount of money out there (and overpricing bonds) or overestimating the Feds ability or intent to suppress yields.

In other words, what if our economy can't withstand a return to rational or sustainable expectations for yields in the credit markets?

MaryAnn wrote:

Would like for China to sue GS for FRAUD

...and then Lord Bankfine decides to visit China?

[on Dave's return to the ship, after HAL has killed the rest of the crew]

HAL: Look Dave, I can see you're really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress test, and think things over.

"Would be like China suing US govt," Yes......Yes, thats the point. GS/USGovernment/Federal Reserve all funded by the peasants.

high yeilds will discourage law makers from auditing the fed?

The Automatic Earth: December 27 2009: Eyes wide open and pedal to the metal

Out of the $2.22 trillion in expected 2010 issuance, $200 billion will be absorbed by the Fed while QE continues through March. Then the US is on its own: $2.06 trillion will have to find non-Fed originating demand. To sum up: $200 billion in 2009; $2.1 trillion in 2010.

... the stunning result is that net issuance in 2009 was only $200 billion.

Seem like allot of loot to refi.

REBear wrote:

high yeilds will discourage law makers from auditing the fed?

I think fear will keep them from doing it. Pulling back the curtain is scary for children. Especially when the boogieman start making the scary noises. oooooooooooo OOOOOOOOOOOOOO...

regarding the need to sell in 2012...I think that might be when we start to get the first wave of the boomer's starting to retire and thus needing to sell that larger home.

Ciao
MS

oooooooo nice chart here via Ezra Klein at WaPo on the contribution of various policies/activities on fiscal deficit.

Out-years hint: look at the effect of Bush Tax Cuts on deficit up to 2019.

MS wrote:

we start to get the first wave of the boomer's starting to retire and thus needing to sell that larger home.

It would seem to me that the smarter of the lot, would be doing that sooner, rather than later, in an effort to recover what little home equity may remain, before interest rates crush house prices, when the Fed stops buying MBS/Treasuries.

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

I think fear will keep them from doing it. Pulling back the curtain is scary for children. Especially when the boogieman start making the scary noises. oooooooooooo OOOOOOOOOOOOOO...

I had a friend who studied 'political economy' in the late 70s... did a stint at LSE and also Oxford. He used to say the US did have a system with balance of powers [checks and balances]... but not congress vs. executive... it was Federal Reserve [and banking industry] vs. Joint Chiefs [and MIC]. Congress and the executive branch were in effect 'the curtain' you mention. I always thought [then] he was FOS. Watching congress manage both the 9-11 Gitmo thing and also Alan & Ben at the Fed makes me realize he was three decades ahead of me.

ac wrote:

The winner of that bracket would then go on to fight the Muslims for control of the entire World.

Wow! Sounds exciting. Maybe we should get cable or merchandise rights on this. I'm betting on the Robot.

Housing prices are fixed! Yeah! Time to fix the jobs situtation.

I'm thinking a $40 minimum wage coupled with $200K a year government jobs for anyone unable to get a job in the private sector should do the trick.

If we are going to print/spend our way out, LETS DO IT RIGHT!

"There were three key economic stress test parameters: house prices, GDP and unemployment. "

To me, the House Price measure is deceptive for the reason that the beginning of the test - the initial date- is so far behind the curve compared to the other two measures. The start point on the chart is Dec. 2008, and prices are already down 28% from peak by that date. The chart shows house prices 'beating' the estimates, but if the chart went back two years earlier the current apparent good news would not seem like such a big deal... especially in a country that had never seen a full year decline since the GD.

timmay is thrashing on his couch in his office, soaked in sweat, as he takes his afternoon nap. his teddy has fallen on the floor . . .

his dream is about interest rates getting out of control:
Loan Type Today Last Week
30 Year Fixed 5.37% 5.11%

he dreams that he is speed dialing Lord Blankfiend:
"Dad, this sucker is going down".

Let's ask him if he sold his house.

Sebastian

I sold my house (or the part that I owned) back in 2006! I recall that Tanta seemed somewhat displeased that I was being opportunistic, or at least that was my impression. I remember a distinct tone of disapproval for some reason, but sometimes I imagine stuff like that.

ac wrote:

a war between the Robots and Mormons for control of America

What about China and Hindus?

Sebastian wrote:

Let's ask him if he sold his house.

Oddly enough, I've always looked at my house price relative to what I COULD purchase IF I sold it. So, I don't care if housing prices go to 0, as long as they all go to 0. The banks would probably care tho. For me, it's way too much of a hassle to move just for possible gain.

What about China and Hindus?

Well China's going to be manufacturing the Robots that are fighting the Mormons in America so I kind of think of them as one in the same. Not sure about the Hindus.

Sebastian wrote:

Let's ask him if he sold his house.

IIRC - he looked into selling his home [houses were for sale all over his area - he posted pictures of a forest of for sale signs]... said his neighbor listed for an outrageous asking price - CR said that if that sold he'd contemplate doing the same. It didn't sell - or nowhere near the ask price. He realized it was already too late to exit at the previous silly bubble prices by then. My recollection that was late 2006 or so. Possibly even earlier.

Lotta water over the dam since then. Lotta folks got wet too.

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

The banks would probably care tho.

You need a 'deafening understatement' warning before writing something like that.

dryfly wrote:

He used to say the US did have a system with balance of powers [checks and balances]... but not congress vs. executive... it was Federal Reserve [and banking industry] vs. Joint Chiefs [and MIC].

Last night we were talking about precision machining in the context of military tech; I mentioned my father had worked on n-sub refits, Pavel answered that he had a relative who'd worked on the Apollo LEM; and I remembered (but did not answer) that one of my uncles manufactured (literally, he ran the line) the explosive bolts that connected the ascent and descent stage. And then of course I grew up in an entire town that supported maintenance of military technology (Vallejo/Mare Island). Just made me realize again how wide the reach of the MIC was through our economy. Still is, I guess, though with many fewer bases and contractors (though larger) out here on the west coast now it's harder to notice.

They share the same deity, sort of.

lawyerliz wrote:

And is never seen again. Fiendish

I donno. I have a feeling that Lord Blankenfiend would fit right into the Chinese Central Committee.

Cap'n Ahablankfein isn't taken a leave of absence from his position as cruise-director for Moby , is he?

dryfly said: "IIRC - he looked into selling his home [houses were for sale all over his area - he posted pictures of a forest of for sale signs]... said his neighbor listed for an outrageous asking price - CR said that if that sold he'd contemplate doing the same. It didn't sell - or nowhere near the ask price. He realized it was already too late to exit at the previous silly bubble prices by then. My recollection that was late 2006 or so. Possibly even earlier.

Lotta water over the dam since then. Lotta folks got wet too."

Just to be clear (in case it wasn't), I was absolutely not trying to embarrass CR, just refuting Blackhalo's point that "smart people were selling their homes." If anyone here could claim "smartness" about the state and nature of the housing market, it would be CR, and if he didn't sell a couple of years ago and isn't contemplating it now...

Full disclosure, I never sold my house, either, and a good thing, too: I'd be paying more than I could have sold it for 2-3 years ago.

Sebastian

Where are you, you poor thing?

Florida is heeerrrrrrre.

I really wanted to sell in '05, but it was because of the 2 years of the 4 hurricanes,
not because of any housing perspicacity. We didn't.

IMHO, excellent:

C-SPAN Video Player - Dean Baker & Peter Morici