ouch! that last thread made me a pigged oreo

News doesn't matter. Markets go up.

I just made biscuits and gravy....Now I want to go back to bed...I've been fighting this stupid cold for a week as well....Blah...

Yes, I'm reading while heating up leftovers for the holiday guests.

OT: last thread, farmer's markets in my county in Texas all take food stamps!

BSR if you are out there, the raw milk search continues but I have contact with a milk coop now, will let you know if I ever get connected

energyecon wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:
A major homebuilder will "reorganize" "volluntarily."
And, ala Morgan Stanley, it won't be a "bankruptcy" or "default" event...

Exactly. If it weren't thus then all kinds of CDS and derviatives would be looking to collect. At this point the great coverup has switched to denying anyone who called the markets correctly any form of pay out.

picking up on a theme from the previous thread-

My comments regarding the banking system were directed at our political process. Our political discourse is nothing more than slogans- it is either "free market" or "socialist", "government is bad" and once you get down to sloganeering nuance is lost. Worse still we have been conditioned like Pavlov's dog to start snarling and attacking at the sound of those words. All though more prevalent on the right it is also found on the left.

In that context what my contact was telling me was that a government take over of the banks as many here (including myself believed) would have been attacked as the "socialist state" by most of the Republican party and some conservative Democrats. If you accept the premise that doing nothing was not an option then the only politically viable policy was giving large amounts of money to the banksters. It is a testament to our times that policy makers rather be called crony capitalists, bank stooges than be called a socialist.

This is exactly the same kind of discourse that allows the Chinese to take advantage of the United States. Those who would suggest a different trade policy will be attacked as "protectionists" , "anti-free market" etc.

dryfly wrote:

I don't think so - I heard of too many plants doing OT last couple of weeks.

The tell will be to see if the inventory and supply chain "fills up" or whether the product was passed through to consumption. The primary manufacturers are hair trigger ready to slam on the breaks at the first sign of slowing demand.

Edit: "breaks" is not a typo.

OT - Retailers Shift Focus to Post-Holiday Deals to Lure Buyers

W/out digging through all the comments - anyone have input on how the pre-holiday sales figures netted out? I know the numbers don't really matter until all the post-holiday sales & gift cards trickle in but wondering what the spin was out there? Note this article says the drop pre-holiday was down 1%... about what I'd heard was expected. Retailers had pretty much downsized employment for that expectation. Now its the backside of the storm. Any news?

Rob Dawg wrote:

primary manufacturers are hair trigger ready to slam on the breaks at the first sign of slowing demand

Yup - and they have better data faster all the time. When I was young they didn't even really know how bad the inventory was until after they did the physical counts once a year... frequently a BIG surprise ... they knew when they ran out of stuff [couldn't ship] but had no idea how much they had if they had any at all. That has mostly changed - I say 'mostly' because I some times hear stories of their suppliers over building & might carry 2-3 years of inventory - some of which the OEs will be required to take under blanket contracts. Another example of shadow inventory.

the numbers are no doubt ready, embargoed until when they wish to release

GS , et alia need a few hours to place their bets

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission is starting to sound like a political circus that will whitewash away any meaningful facts when it finally publishes its report, more than a year from now. It's technically part of the executive branch, which means it falls under the sway of the Obama White House and the Administration's pledge to use technology for transparency, like never before in American politics. So, where's the technology and transparency?

The FCIC still doesn't have a functioning Website, even though it has an operating budget of $8 million, plus ability to borrow without cost any executive branch employee. The FCIC has powers to gather information through judicially enforceable subpoenas and testimony taken under oath.

The FCIC is charged by statute with examining "the causes of the collapse of each major financial institution that failed (including institutions that were acquired to prevent their failure) or was likely to have failed if not for the receipt of exceptional Government assistance from the Secretary of the Treasury." There's at least a dozen such institutions, and perhaps as many as 30-40 useful witnesses from each.

Why can't the FCIC take testimony under oath, from hundreds of such witnesses, away from the glare of cameras and circus political posturing, and then post that verbatim testimony on line ASAP, so all Americans can read and interpret it?

Maybe the answer has something to do with the fact that the FCIC still doesn't even have a functioning Website, where we can learn what staffers they have hired, whom they will interview, what documents or testimony they will make available to the public in the interim, etc.?

Tell me about technology and transparency, Obama, you liar.

You're covering up your cozy ties with Wall Street as fast as you can, and the American people know it.

"Ratio of Existing to New Home Sales at Record High"

Climbing back down the property ladder.

Speaking of long slow declines...

Rupert Cornwell: The car park: a celebration of its place in history -
Rupert Cornwell, Commentators - The Independent

Even sadder is the tale of the former Michigan Theater. Once it was the biggest, glitziest movie house in Detroit, built in French renaissance style with columns and inlaid ceilings. Now the half-derelict building is a parking garage, perhaps the most beautiful, and certainly the saddest in the country. This monument to decay stands on the site of the tiny workshop where back in 1896 a young engineer at the Edison Illuminating Company built his first car, whose successors would fill parking garages throughout the land. His name was Henry Ford.

We'll see more of this kind of abomination, as tax revenues decline, and the money to support truth and beauty dries up.

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

"When something becomes sufficiently complex, it is indistinguishable from magic. (Who said that, or words to that effect?)

Arthur C. Clarke

edit: though he was talking about a sufficiently advanced technology, IIRC

edit edit: viz the third law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke's_three_laws

If you like that parking garage so much why don't you buy it?

beat me to it energy.

"gift cards"

I thought they were booked as sales when the card sold?

though he was talking about a sufficiently advanced technology, IIRC

Given the state of current [fill in the blank] graduates, one might posit that we have reached such a sufficiently advanced technology.

Rob Dawg wrote:

At this point the great coverup has switched to denying anyone who called the markets correctly any form of pay out.

There's a conspiracy theory for you.

Comrade Misean is Dope wrote:

I thought they were booked as sales when the card sold?

Booked upon redemption. Which is dumb.
What happens to the sales data on cards never used?

We've discussed turning Detroit back to farmland.

It turns out that someone is actually trying to do it. Some interesting considerations come up:
Investors see farms as way to grow Detroit -- latimes.com

Good morning all, I'm having my and needed a little reality check.
So far the doom and gloom still seems to be far on the horizon, and it looks like the first quarter will slowly chug along and of course the markets will be goosed even further into insane levels.
Other wise I need to figure out what I want to do for the next couple of days. Kind of strange I'm working throughout the holidays with a nice break in between.

josap wrote:

Comrade Misean is Dope wrote:

I thought they were booked as sales when the card sold?

Booked upon redemption. Which is dumb.
What happens to the sales data on cards never used?

Ya its the weirdness of double entry accounting.

Cash in, card liability created

Then

Card redeemed [liability extinguished], product taken [inventory reduced]

Nets out to

Cash in - inventory reduced... but happens over two separate transactions spaced out in both time & distance. It only makes sense if 'accounting' makes sense. Not claiming it does - just sayin'...

Edit: unredeemed cards go straight to bottom line after expiration period [there usually is one].

I prefer to see the ones with head, hands, AND feet restrained used.

Anonymous Bosch - Drink Beer? Eat Does the FDIC Order Anchovies??

I'll be making some hard cider, and either a mead or brew up some beer.
Clean the apartment, that will eat up one day. One day of doing nothing and watching Football. I just may end up going to the beach, it's been so long I have forgotten what it looks like.

Rob Dawg wrote 8:44 am (previous thread)

Dateline Jan 22nd, 2012 - In Washington D.C. today President Dawg announced the formation of "Bank of The United States" as successor to the failing Federal Reserve system.

yes indeed..."get on the BUS", as i wrote long ago... (bank of the united States) we... (rob dawg, mp? and i and others, have advocated placing failed banks into receivership right away and stop the mark to model fantasy that retards moving beyond the financial crisis

as many know here i was (was!) actively involved in grass roots politics on behalf of the dems during the last election cycle

over and over at local level, community based policy forums, i wrote and spoke, in favor of bottom up rescue of the system, a "bank of the united states" in replacement of the fed reserv, and an "appollo" energy- transportation program

all my ideas were, apparently rebuffed as obama and company decided to bed with the bankstas

i dream that he will come to his senses and turn on his masters, for in many (not all) other ways i like obama ,but the opportunity may have passed

the bankstas have damaged our country worse than the terrorists could have ever hoped for

i will vote for paul or kucinich or any sane candidate who pledges to demolish the federal reserve

mock turtle wrote:

i will vote for paul or kucinich or any sane candidate who pledges to demolish the federal reserve

"You will obey me while I lead you
And eat the garbage that I feed you
Until the day that we don't need you
Don't go for help...no one will heed you
Your mind is totally controlled
It has been stuffed into my mold
And you will do as you are told
Until the rights to you are sold"

--Frank Zappa: I'm the Slime

Something to keep in mind at the next election.

sm_landlord

please dont mis-interpret my hope for delusion

i realize that in many places the system is ugly, rotten and maggot infested

but without hope for a better future i could not rise each day and go forth

there are good people thru-out trying mightily to do good and wheni can find them

ill put my shoulder to the stone

sometimes (often) i am wrong. but since i have children, i have to try

"Mr Everitt said New Zealand Government intelligence agencies had assessed the threat to aviation since the incident and concluded it was low.

"This is totally a US-driven requirement, not a New Zealand Government requirement," he said of the checks."

It appears that the NZ government is more rational and smarter than their US counterpart.

there are good people thru-out trying mightily to do good and wheni can find them

I met some at church just today. Treasure them, they are worth much more than gold at any price.

dryfly wrote:

Cash in, card liability created

Usually (and correctly) it is not card liability, but deferred revenue, which is contra-asset. (bookkeeping impact is the same as liability, of course)

unredeemed cards go straight to bottom line after expiration period [there usually is one].

Some companies take into account the expected breakage, when booking the deferred revenue, which goes to the bottom line right away

"This ratio (new vs. existing home sales) has increased again to a new all time high"

These are the markets you get when they are being manipulated. The criminals can't control all the factors and there are always unintended consequences. Look for insiders to be selling and suckers to be holding, all markets revert to the mean. That is, new home sales are going to explode or exisiting home sales are going to collapse, or both. Either way, it is going to be ugly for our Country because people who work are going to pay the tab.

Benny and the Talibanks wrote:

That is, new home sales are going to explode or exisiting home sales are going to collapse,

neither of those two has to happen. New sales can remain low as the cost of new construction is greater than the cost of buying an existing home. Homes continue to come on the market - banks release them, more aggressively foreclose and low cost financing continues to allow renters to become homeowners. Just because the ration is high doesn't mean it has to come lower and it could have been that during the boom years new homes sales were much higher than they should have been.

sm_landlord

thanks for the re

i hear ya...just wanted to be sure you knew i wasnt polyanna

hey...your FZ pull is right on target....thanks

China has decided to continue to passively let the Fed determine the currency supply. We should be flattered.

Schumer is an ass.

heres a blast from the past

mock turtle wrote on Sat, **1/17/2009 **- 11:03 am

*

Bank of the United States

BUS

quit messin around and

get on the BUS

Rob Dawg...when you are elected prez please consider my application (or mp would be a good choice too) for treasury secretary

i believe we three are in agreement

the thought of the us treasury ie the taxpayer remitting interest to the federal reserve on us debt makes me very cranky

btw RD if its ok with you... if after the inauguration.... i like to have hanke-panky-bernanke, timmay, greedspend ,rubin ,summers, barney eff..phill and wendy... and a list of others... clapped in irons and put in the brigg

I'd like to be put in charge of the FDA when you guys get in office

for everyone!

If i may, running the SEC would be a job I would like. And wall street would not like very well.

noob goldberg wrote:

I'd run the USDA for President Dawg, but only because I like all of you so much.

You'll catch holy hell from the mega-agbusinesses when you implement my hormone and nitrogen runoff policies.

We would all catch hell, from all sides.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

I'd like to be put in charge of the FDA when you guys get in office

Wait for all the whining at my closing the revolving door.

Rob Dawg wrote:

You'll catch holy hell from the mega-agbusinesses when you implement my hormone and nitrogen runoff policies.

Meh, BgH is a useless drug anyway, and deserves to be banned. Mandate direct-injection nitrogen (and liquid manure) application techniques and most of the run-off would be contained (except for those damned golf courses).

I'd probably catch the greatest grief when I implemented the National Grain Reserve program.

EDIT: Oh, and I'd be happy to work very closely with whomever you put in charge of the newly de-neutered Commodity Futures Trading Commission to close all those damned OTC loopholes and make those markets useful again.

mp wrote:

EQUALLY TRAGIC, is some information concerning Chinese metrology that I've come to learn over the last couple of days.

Metrology, mp? I don't follow...

Are you talking about how they collect and aggregate statistics, which would affect their determination of an appropriate yuan exchange to the greenback?

EDIT: I'll check back for your response later, mp...domestic duties are calling

mp wrote:

To say that this situation won't end well is an TRAGIC UNDERSTATEMENT.

mp,could you explain for me? Why so bad?

mp wrote:

MEASURING EQUIPMENT.

THE ABILITY TO MAKE ACCURATE AND REPEATABLE MEASUREMENTS.

Ahh, gotcha. Thanks.

noob goldberg wrote:

the newly created "Department of Industrial Manufacturing"

?

What would he preside over?

I am insanely jealous of your KitchenAid. My ex boyfriend had one but he kept it when we split up. I have a Sunbeam that Mom bought but it doesn't hold a candle to the KitchenAid....They are awesome.

mp wrote:

China's announcement that it will not allow the yuan to appreciate is a TRAGIC DEVELOPMENT.

this assumes china will actually do what it says. how is their track record on this front?

CR likes to talk about how innovation is going to move the economy forward, but that isn't going to happen.

The pathology is now in place to ensure that any innovation that does take place will occur in China.

It is being strangled here in the US.

...the newly created "Department of Industrial Manufacturing"

Would that make him the D-I-M-wit?

mp wrote:

The pathology is now in place to ensure that any innovation that does take place will occur in China.

i really, really, really like your use of the word "pathology". i don't think there is a better term to describe what is happening in the US. it's a disease.

this assumes china will actually do what it says.

Oh, they won't allow it to appreciate because their mercantilist policies are working too well.

We're going to ride this train right off the bridge.

And China will be the pre-eminent global power when it's over.

They know that.

You mean China will be put in power by the current rulers of the World. The ownership will remain the same, they'll just have new front men.

China will become the pre-eminent power because they will force us to default.

They know that.

They want it to happen.

mp wrote:

EQUALLY TRAGIC, is some information concerning Chinese metrology that I've come to learn over the last couple of days.

mp,

If that is Chinese meterology I would be keen to see any links you have to share... TIA

edit: ah, got the reference to measurement

China will become the pre-eminent power because they will force us to default.

Is China still considered a 3rd world country?

If so, things are changing really quickly.

Remember Alvin Toffler with Future Shock? They showed that movie when I was in high school, more than once.

mp wrote:

And China will be the pre-eminent global power when it's over.

A ten year timeline would fit with that and the Chinese program to fast track the development of a blue water navy - without the ability to project airpower, they are a regional military superpower, not global...

without the ability to project airpower, they are a regional military superpower, not global...

They're planning a carrier fleet. We know that.

mp, does Chinese metrology mean that they are shortsheeting our bed?

I am concerned how much knowledge on the Internet is disappearing behind firewalls or pay portals or outright going away. Then there's the misleading for any number of reasons.

mp - I think what you're saying is that the Chinese are improving the quality of their machining cuts/specs so that they can compete just as well as US-manufactured machinery. More cheaply, too.

They are nearly surpassing us now in metrology.

It is very nearly game, set, match.

They will be able to build better than we can.

What did every new dynasty do on taking power and completing initial pacification?
1. Reconcile the archives.
2. Re-mandate weights and measures.

Just an observation.

C

Rob Dawg wrote:

how much knowledge on the Internet is disappearing behind firewalls or pay portals or outright going.away

Probably inevitable. There's a fairly clear trend towards differentiating Internet &protocols for censorship,i.e.competitive advantage and once a localized filtering system is in place, it's not much more work. I thought about doing a presentation at Defcon 2009 but let it go.

mp wrote:

They're planning a carrier fleet. We know that.

Yes, US military puts that capability around 2015, though they might get something simpler (more like LPD) by 2012 from a link I threw out earlier today...

In manufacturing, it's all about metrology.

It's about accuracy.

If you can't measure it, you can't cut it.

In the high accuracy arena, the Chinese are about to blow us out of the water.

It will be OVER. They will be building superior products at lower cost.

GAME, SET, MATCH.

mp wrote:

It will be OVER. They will be building superior products at lower cost.

Libertarians finally get their wish, a world of selfish ignorant people who have so little shared context or common interest that nothing meaningful can be accomplished anymore. Awesome.

Pretty soon, we'll be counterfeiting Chinese equipmment, instead of vice-versa.

And that is sad.

Hopefully we can find another niche.

Go long crayons. Ours are still superior - they don't contain lead.

Long live Crayola!

Outsider wrote:

And that is sad.

no, more likely not in our lifetime

mock turtle wrote:

Dateline Jan 22nd, 2012 - In Washington D.C. today President Dawg announced the formation of "Bank of The United States" as successor to the failing Federal Reserve system."

The first and second banks were killed by politicians Jefferson.Madison and Jackson. They were even more corruptable than the current fed, with Nicholas Biddle of the second bank hating Andrew Jackson with a purple passion, publishing literature for Henry Clay, leading Jackson who was a great hater, to hate Biddle worse. When Jackson withdrew government deposits from the second BUS, Biddle started a recession, to punish Jackson.

That's one consolation - if China gets Paulson et al. along with our manufacturing, I wouldn't be so totally bummed about it. Good luck to them.

(My bet is - they won't find the Chinese so chummy)

It's important to remember that PROTECTIONISM will be rejected at this point. It isn't a solution.

American manufacturers are now CO-MINGLED with China. Tariffs would simply destroy the large US corporations doing business there.

Ultimately, the only solution is to figuratively BURN IT DOWN.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

The Squid is already in China

Not as big as here, CK. And it won't be as good a profit source for them until they have people inside the Chinese govt running policy like Summers, Frank, Geithner, Bernanke, Dodd, Emanuel etc. do for them here.

Outsider wrote:

what do you propose we start building our new economy with?

with the historical first choice of failed empires - bombs and guns!

Outsider wrote:

what do you propose we start building our new economy with?

Derivatives, of course!

mp wrote:

A new commitment to PEOPLE. A recognition that an economy can survive through its own INTERNAL DEMAND by balancing manufacturing capacity against jobs.

That is why I buy from mom & pop shops when ever possible. It may not be much, but shopping at the little specialty bird shop rather than BigBox pet stores works for my community. They also have better quaility and choices.

Harder to find things MADE here.

Rob Dawg wrote:

At this point the great coverup has switched to denying anyone who called the markets correctly any form of pay out.

If such tactics are successful, won't CDS stop being bought/written?

Can we move from a Potter society back to a Bailey society?

The United States must do this, or it's going to end up a poor version of Cuba.

And, you'd better hope it happens soon, before everything is totally cored-out and the knowledge is gone.

Have you looked at capacity utilization lately?

Yes, it's up, but total capacity is FALLING so , sure, the utlization figures look good.

There's a numerator AND and denominator, you know.

mp et al. FWIW I am seeing an increasing awareness of these problems in the general population. Left and Right seem to be awakening to the fact that they have been screwed. It is the one tiny ray of hope I see in all of this. Should the American people somehow decide to unite on an issue, nothing will stop them. They seem to be uniting behind the idea that perhaps our government and their corporate overseers are not looking out for We the People. It's a start. I am seeing rumblings of Progressives and Teabaggers uniting behind this cause. I'm not sure if I"m heartened or terrified by the prospect.

noob goldberg wrote:

discussions with Measurement Canada... and the word metrology never came up.

Canadians, bah.

As for a popular uprising, history says it's very unlikely.

Some things can't be fixed.

Jonathan wrote:

A cylinder of aluminum is extruded into a long sheet, then chopped, then 5 milling stages turn it into the main body of the laptop. The internal finish shown in the video is amazing.

It's also really nice to hold a product that feels solid and well made. And does not feel like plastic. Even ABS, the hard plastic they telephones out of, feels cheap by comparison.

mp wrote:

Metrology is an "old-fashioned" word.
I am an "old-fashioned" guy.

Metrology is still the proper 'current' word.

And I wouldn't worry about the Chinese owning that space - the Germans have for at least a half century if not longer [see Zeiss].

YouTube - Frank Zappa - Bobby Brown

Plus the ability to build a working anti-ship ballistic missile...

https://www.usni.org/forthemedia/ChineseKillWeapon.asp 

I was with teen at mall yesterday. Looking for UGG-type boots that don't look trendy, since the teens have the UGGs cornered now. Finally found something suitable at Macy's that was a combo between teen & old lady, and I was in line to buy. Looked again at the box: Made in China.

Put them back. Just couldn't do it.

Outsider wrote:

Finally found something suitable at Macy's that was a combo between teen & old lady, and I was in line to buy. Looked again at the box: Made in China. Put them back. Just couldn't do it.

In certain categories they have total monopoly; try decent pair of running shoes in the 50 - 120$ range. I have not found any.

energyecon wrote:

Key to machining sub propellers that allow them to surface within carrier groups, for example...

The key there were the 5-axis precision CNC machining centers - the Russians got them from Japan and we then slapped a three year moratorium on buying machines from the company that sold them to the Russians - they were locked out of the US market - the largest in the world at the time. I can't remember the company - Hitachi, Toyoda, Mazak, Okuma - one of them. It cost them a lot of market share.

Wouldn't work today - they'd say screw you - buy our machines or don't buy our machines - you are no longer #1 market.

crazyv wrote:

except for the blender - mine was a piece of junk or their micro wave My built in microwave conked out after three years.

KA blenders seem to hold up well - their other appliances not so much. The consumer reviews & ratings sites are full of complaints w/ KA products.

crazyv wrote:

except for the blender - mine was a piece of junk

Yep, ours is awaiting me getting hold of a 7mm thin wrench to change the drive coupling. That's a shady piece of design.

It is not really heavy duty enough to make Margaritas.

SNAFU wrote:

Need I say more? Sufficient capital is/will find where the cheap labor is,

16 years ago at conference in Washington D.C- I told Sen. Dorgan that advocates of free trade in the United States were just racists. Most people thought I had lost my marbles- but I went on to say that the conventional thinking was that the US could keep the high paying jobs while transferring the low paying jobs overseas what makes you think that the India's of this world will be content with just the low paying jobs and that they won't come after the high paying jobs as well? To believe that wasn't going to happen with pure racism. I don't think most people got it but a few did. Unfortunately I have been proven right- and as long we continue to believe in "American exceptionalism" at he expense of a hard look at our competitive situation we are going to get screwed.

snafu, check this out:

ASICS America - About ASICS America

In 1949, Mr. Kihachiro Onitsuka began his athletic footwear company (Onitsuka Co., Ltd.) by manufacturing basketball shoes out of his living room in Kobe, Japan.

Maybe they have an asics China division like they have an asics America division.

Outsider wrote:

snafu, check this out:

ASICS America - About ASICS America

In 1949, Mr. Kihachiro Onitsuka began his athletic footwear company (Onitsuka Co., Ltd.) by manufacturing basketball shoes out of his living room in Kobe, Japan.

Maybe they have an asics China division like they have an asics America division.

I will; the last time I checked in Sprts Basement, it was made in China. Thanks.

Outsider wrote:

Just like everything else. Must be a Japanese company that manufactures in China?

Thanks for checking, I will keep looking.