Damn, I was thinking 2012 for coastal sanity, now I'm thinking 2013-2014.
Have to give it to the flippers, though -- at least they're working to set market prices! More than the Fed is helping to do... I pray for 7% mortgages to clear up this mess...
Anyone rational making bets should bet against collection.
Anyone rational making bets should bet against collection getting much. But whether they try to create a new class of indentured debt slaves is the bet -- and I bet they try.
I'm confused. How can the flipper sell these houses so quickly, when we hear about bank listed properties sitting forever with no bids. Is it that the bank first asks for 100% of owed, doesn't get it then immediately sells for 50% of owed on the courthouse steps? Is it only WaMu properties that are being sold this way? It seems like the sort of thing for a reporter to dig into. Somehow the examples listed here don't jive with what we've been hearing about bank-listed properties.
But whether they try to create a new class of indentured debt slaves is the bet -- and I bet they try.
There is always someone trying to make money from someone else. That's just the background radiation. If the amounts are small in the aggregate, then it's not economically relevant.
If actual collections on deficiencies start to become significant then I'll be very surprised and interested. The political pressure to not collect in large amounts is enormous. I assure you that laws would be changed if the collection rates started to become significant.
By the way, mortgage loans in Germany and lots of other countries that have systems we regard as relatively socialist are full recourse - and they actually collect. But then they have a cultural bias that favors strict loan repayment. Argentina doesn't, nor does the US any more. Every country chooses its own economic system, reflecting the proclivities and relative ambitions of its citizens. The future then determines the economic winners and the losers.
Every country chooses its own economic system, reflecting the proclivities and relative ambitions of its citizens.
We've always been a nation that was founded specifically on "a new start" strategy more so than the freedom of religion angle. Since banks are much more in control of our federal government now, I see a return to recourse collection as practiced by most banks outside the US. Once the massively pooled blood is cleaned up, the only blood left is what's still on the floor.
"I'm confused. How can the flipper sell these houses so quickly,"
It's called expertise. Guy knows his business and his market. Probably has a crew of hand picked go getters who know their shite as well. The only way you could do better would be through gov't beuracracy.
Did anyone notice that from the bathtub with the spectacular view you can look down on the next-door neighbor's hot tub? I'm not sure I'd want to pay that much money for that part of the view.
Jonathan (profile) wrote on Sat, 12/26/2009 - 8:10 pm
And on the theme of what BSR posted in Pigged thread,
Selling all appliances
Awesome. Any cash offer. That has to suck.
That's all fine but the washing machine will never work installed at that angle.
They need a level or something.
CR,
Just as a follow up, these data are from an earlier version of Dr. Zandi's analysis (which was based on an early House version). This has the information all the way to end of 2010. Table 1 on Page 8 of The Economic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of Jan 21, 2009. But obviously the numbers of the final stimulus package are going to be slightly different from these. This report also does not have Dr. Zandi's projected contribution of the stimulus to the GDP growth.
Q2 2009 over Q1 2009 : $ 89 B (=89 -
Q3 2009 over Q2 2009 : $ 29B (=118-89)
Q4 2009 over Q3 2009 : $ 17B (=135-118)
Q1 2010 over Q4 2009 : $ 7B (=142-135)
Q2 2010 over Q1 2010 : $ -10B (=132-142)
Q3 2010 over Q2 2010 : $ -16B (=116-132)
Q4 2010 over Q3 2010 : $ -22B (=94-116)
So the Annualized growth rate contributions from the stimulus should be :
Q2 2009: 2.50%
Q3 2009: 0.81%
Q4 2009: 0.47%
Q1 2010: 0.19%
Q2 2010: -0.28%
Q3 2010: -0.44%
Q4 2010: -0.61%
So except for Q2 2009, the contribution of the Stimulus to the GDP growth is < 1%.
Ofcourse, Dr. Zandi's analysis would have included the multiplier effect of each of the components of the stimulus as in Table 2, Page 9.
It seems like the sort of thing for a reporter to dig into. Somehow the examples listed here don't jive with what we've been hearing about bank-listed properties.
Bank employees' performances are no longer assessed on their expertise at good lending, and at good loss mitigation when things go poorly. So the bank employees in charge of the home loans don't know a lot about the properties, and don't really much care what the actual losses are. Do you think there is a senior manager at JPM checking to ensure that they get at least 90% of the retail value of their most valuable properties? Obviously not. It is quite possible this loan was re-sold to another investor, so JPM doesn't care what the losses are in any case.
The US home loan system is screwed up really badly. No one cares about making bad loans. No one cares about mitigating losses. It's like a bad cross between the Soviet Union, where no one was held accountable for economic losses (unless they were in a critical sector) and normal private industry, where managers can be paid millions because they are accountable.
They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No-one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of money,
Buying there-under, next to the sea!
Everyone loves the king of the sea,
Ever so kind and gentle is he,
Tricks he will do when clients appear,
And how they laugh when he's near!
They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No-one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of mone-e-e-e-e,
Selling there-under, next the sea!
Yeah, I keep remembering all the comments Tanta made about the loss of real talent at banks as they looked to drive down the costs of underwriting and originating. I guess it shouldn't be surprising that the loss mitigation department is just as lacking for talent now. But it still seems crazy that the bank could be so far off on the current value of a property. Plus, what about all this nonsense about banks needing to pay bonuses to retain talent. Can't the pay czar hold up a story like this and tell Chase they have no talent!
Potential buyers can find out what the flipper paid, estimate the cost of any work done by the flipper and make a starting bid that gives the flipper a reasonable but not outrageous return on the investment. Of course, "trying for $1 million profit" means "looking for knifecatcher with money to burn".
If actual collections on deficiencies start to become significant then I'll be very surprised and interested. The political pressure to not collect in large amounts is enormous. I assure you that laws would be changed if the collection rates started to become significant.
By the way, mortgage loans in Germany and lots of other countries that have systems we regard as relatively socialist are full recourse - and they actually collect. But then they have a cultural bias that favors strict loan repayment. Argentina doesn't, nor does the US any more. Every country chooses its own economic system, reflecting the proclivities and relative ambitions of its citizens. The future then determines the economic winners and the losers. "
It depends on the state what the legal theory is re: recourse. Florida for example is a recourse state, California is not. However most lenders ask themselves if there is any blood left in the turnip that was the borrower, and say not enough to bother, given the political heat a serious pursuit of recourse would result in. (Think string up the bankers...) The only way to get out of the recourse judgement is of course to go bankrupt. Note that if you did a cash out re-fi Ca at least the cash out is recourse. (Its only purchase money that is non-recourse). Also for those who took cash out, when you default uncle will want income tax on the cash out. (The law exempts just purchase money from the tax on the 1099-C). IMHO using the house as an ATM is just plain stupid, the only reason to borrow more is for improvements which can add to the value.
"Potential buyers can find out what the flipper paid, estimate the cost of any work done by the flipper and make a starting bid that gives the flipper a reasonable but not outrageous return on the investment."
Works great if you're the only customer. The snag is, that this guy already knows what the buyers are looking for, how many there are, and has a good idea of what they'll pay. He's likely doing nothing more than cleaning these places.
Can't the pay czar hold up a story like this and tell Chase they have no talent!
Ken Feinberg could, but I suspect that he is a fox in the henhouse, despite all the noise. For example, no one at a company should receive a bonus for a year when the company lost more shareholders' money than it earned, yet Feinberg is approving such bonuses. Total bonuses at banks and other financial firms are expected to be near peak levels, even though we all know they are losing taxpayers' money every day, and are held up only by continued massive support from the Fed and Treasury = the tapxayer.
Feinberg and Geithner and Bernanke and Summers and Dodd and Frank are all on the same page on what they want done, and bank reform as we think of it is not on their agenda.
It depends on the state what the legal theory is re: recourse. Florida for example is a recourse state, California is not. However most lenders ask themselves if there is any blood left in the turnip that was the borrower, and say not enough to bother, given the political heat a serious pursuit of recourse would result in. (Think string up the bankers...) The only way to get out of the recourse judgement is of course to go bankrupt. Note that if you did a cash out re-fi Ca at least the cash out is recourse. (Its only purchase money that is non-recourse). Also for those who took cash out, when you default uncle will want income tax on the cash out. (The law exempts just purchase money from the tax on the 1099-C). IMHO using the house as an ATM is just plain stupid, the only reason to borrow more is for improvements which can add to the value.
This one just never dies, does it?
Banks are not pursuing recourse on home loans. Total recourse collections are minuscule, a rounding error. It's a legal theory that is irrelevant in practice.
For once and for all, can anyone who has seen real data showing significant collections of recourse loans please post here? If not, then I vote for moving on. Sigh.
Edit: Oh, and I have yet to hear of the IRS actually collecting taxes on a home loan forgiveness. Again, it appears to be all theory, with very little actually collected. Data to the contrary, please post!
"Some analysts predict an impending foreclosure crisis in commercial real estate, one that would take down major banks with it.....Bank of America filed a $59.7 million lawsuit in District Court against Village Square Shopping Center.......That fallout has yet to be felt, though notices of default on commercial properties have doubled in the last year, according to monthly reports from Nevada Title Co.....The situation has been called a “time bomb” waiting to explode, the next shoe to drop."
.....talked with an old boy who buys contents of LV storage units. More volume and more junk. The past owners have sold off the "high-end" stuff before letting the storage unit junk go as well. Many more foreign competitors also - stuff is now shipped off-shore.
For once and for all, just because recourse has historically not been of practical import doesn't mean it will continue that way.
It is easier than ever before to track assets hidden around the world. Things are different this time. Parking violations that have been ignored for decades suddenly rack up tickets when the municipality is facing default.
BSR, CRE loan losses will be at a high rate, and some banks will get crushed. But CRE loans are only 1/4 of RRE loans, so the total damage to the economy will be less than for RRE. You probably already know this, but I am just posting to add some perspective.
This is just frustrating for me. I've been renting in San Diego since 2003. I waited out the bubble, thought things were going my way, then we got this government/bank intervention and collusion. Last year would have been a better year to buy. I'm looking in the 180k-220k range. Last year that market was a buyer's market with some descent properties. This year that market hardly exists. The first time homebuyer tax credit and FHA lending to anything with a pulse has easily had a 50k boost in asking prices over a year ago. What would have been a 200k property last year is a 260-270k property now. Seems like gravity has been suspended. Almost the entire low end is flipped properties. I just don't quite have the cash to buy a place outright at the courthouse so I'm left looking at properties flippers are making 60-80k off from the non discriminating buyer and lender. Seems like my timeframe to buy keeps getting further away. Inventory absolutely sucks and flippers are making a killing. It is not a rumor. San Diego is completely insane.
Mr Bernanke is pleased to hear things are going according to plan. He thanks you for your report, and for his current use of your savings. Now get back to the salt mines of responsibility to labor for the benefit and profit of the irresponsible.
All my savings has been sitting in a no yield checking account for some time now. There is no good place to put it and I've been thinking I might be using half of it for a down payment. I've seriously toyed with taking it all out and keeping cash at home...just to spite the bank.
As you are renting, decide you are lucky and can move. Find someplace with less expensive real estate, that you like, and move there. Buy something in your new home city.
I've seriously toyed with taking it all out and keeping cash at home...just to spite the bank.
I hate the idea of giving these guys my money so they can use it to price responsible people like you out of the housing market. But I don't want to lose a large amount of my money in a theft or fire, so I am stuck with leaving it in banks and money markets. The system is being highly abusive right now to more responsible people, but things might get better. Use what has happened to learn valuable lessons and perspectives about the future. Who knows, maybe in 30 years what you've seen now will enable you to see what will really happen then better than the head of the Fed, and you can use it to make some money for yourself!
not_going_to_post,
Why would you put ALL your savings in a "no yield" checking account. Why don't you shop around for banks that give you some decent yield - maybe 2%. I know it is still low but it is better than 0%. If enough people in our country do this, it also puts pressure on your 0% yield bank to raise their rates.
Unfortunately moving is not really an option. Split custody thing and another 6+ years until kid is 18. I can't leave San Diego county without court permission/custody revision. I'd love to move to a lower cost portion of the country.
I wish I had known that instead of sitting here moaning about the state of the economy, I could've been out there flipping hundreds of homes this year at 101% sale to listing price, 10 days average on market.
What are we belly aching about again? I'm starting to lose my focus here.
I tried a 2% "online only" account. Has not been a good experience, can't wait to close it. In short, dodgy web interface, dodgy customer support. Not worth it, for me.
Because I went liquid, don't like money market accounts and really thought I was going to buy. ALL of my savings isn't as much as most here I would presume. I guess maybe I'd get .5% on a saving account, but why even bother?
I'd love to move to a lower cost portion of the country.
If you can take a long term perspective, then RRE is still vulnerable to price decreases. All that's holding it up now is truly massive govt intervention and subsidies. Baby boomers will start retiring in numbers in 2012. And the Chinese will not want to get paid in depreciating dollars forever, so they will eventually reduce their trade surplus with us. When that happens, we will have a downturn in US asset prices. Over the next 10 years, RRE is vulnerable.
To buy RE now would mean you don't care if you would lose your down payment to further drops in RE value if more shocks or deflationary forces hit the economy. Also, if employment is guaranteed to be stable that would help.
If someone suggests buying now tell them if you could use their money especially for the down payment that would be convincing enough to take the chance buying RE now in an instable economy..
not_going_to_post,
You can do better than 0.5% on some of these online savings accounts.
Why should you bother - only if sufficient people move their funds away from these 0% yield bank accounts into higher yield savings accounts, will these TBTF banks start serving customers - raising their deposit rates.
Seriously, look at the Total deposits at Wells Fargo - $439B from the FDIC website. This is ~ 35% of their total balance sheet. Even if a 1/4 of those deposits are pulled out to other smaller banks, I am sure you will start seeing a big reaction (positive to us) from these TBTF banks.
I tried a 2% "online only" account. Has not been a good experience, can't wait to close it. In short, dodgy web interface, dodgy customer support. Not worth it, for me.
photon,
Maybe you should post about them at some review sites.
hey,patientrenter, I saw where a few days back, you asked me if I had heard anything, with regard to "financial services reform". I was referring to Barney Frank's hearings, held hast summer, early fall. I would be highly surprised (and pissed) if they just dropped the issue. They're probably doing all the smoke-filled back room stuff, now, and it'll have to be worked on by the House and Senate, but I'm willing to bet the final product will have some teeth, contrary to your seeming expectation. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time.
For a second or two, I thought maybe I should have bought it, or one like it. Then I realized I might need to amortize that $1.6 mill investment over 20 years, until the cliff collapses. Oh, wait, if I mortgage it to the hilt, it doesn't matter! I still haven't fully adapted to the US home market.
I'm willing to bet the final product will have some teeth, contrary to your seeming expectation
I hope I am wrong, barfly.
Here's a story that indicates where I come from on all these truly 'inside' guys, from both parties. I don't know if the writer has an agenda that makes the facts or spin less than fully trustworthy, but the first page rings true with me, and I know a bit about Mr Frank's FIRE connections and loyalties.
photon,
I found this site to be pretty useful - Bank Deals - Best Rates and Deals . It carries reviews for each of the listed accounts. I don't know if you will like the web interface
Yes, God will certainly take care of it. Like the view from one tub to another. Down the cliff they all go with a good rain. It must say something about the human psyche that people are willing to spend huge amounts of money just to have a good view of nature.....in the city.
Perhaps the money on the sidelines should consider going long steel, Shanghai and HK heavy industry equities, cement, Australia-China shipping, light industrial fabrication...
The best thing the doomers can do now is give up on trying to blow a whistle and just face the fact that this economic decline has been coming for years now...loss of manufacturing, outsourcing, stagnant wages, credit bubbles, etc. All of the reasons this decline is happening have been repeated over and over again.
So now...what will the admin and fed/gov do?...just deny it's getting worse...that won't change. They are preparing behind the scenes for the fallout of failed policies in the so-called public interest.
A lot of exec orders and renewal of orders just to make sure there is protection for property rights and a new structure is developing to keep the economy functioning.
The blame game is a waste of time really because it will all be water under the bridge and a new challenge is coming to adapt to an economy drained of it's ability to function without government control.
All of the financial/currency crisis econ research means nothing to what's happening in preventing it or taking a course that won't be more authoritarian. All that stuff predicting what would or could happen was ignored in favor of doing what was described as the reason a crisis would occur.
mof,
I agree with you that the interest rates are moot in the face of the USD devaluation. The point here is not just interest rates but moving the deposit base away from the banks. No changes are going to happen unless the banks become irrelevant. The only way we can do that is to remove their very reason for existence - kill their deposit base.
The media is crucial to keeping the public opinion and interest looking in the direction of scapegoats now that the damage to the economy has been done and can't or won't be undone.
barfly,
TBTF with their enablers Greenspan and Bernanke have been waging "war" on the savers and the "responsible" people. We have been only complaining that they are not doing what is right. We have not put in any effort to make them do what is right. How can we vote with our feet? and I don't mean the ballot box. Financially, how can we force them?
There is actually a market force at work in the economic decline because of failed business and lending models...consumers aren't spending as much and are delaying large purchases in many cases from not wanting to borrow and/or spend but also because many consumers now can't borrow and spend because of unemployment or job worry.
The consumer has been downsized from credit destruction and failed lending programs.
This is an ongoing destruction process and it's not creative just destructive.
"In 2004, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) revealed that a member state had violated its Safeguards Agreement by carrying out covert uranium conversion and enrichment activities and plutonium experiments for more than two decades. The nature of some of those enrichment activities, moreover, raised legitimate suspicions of interest in a nuclear weapons program.
The state was found to have lied to the IAEA even when the authority began investigating these suspicious activities, with the country concerned claiming that its laser enrichment research did not involve any use of nuclear material.
If that sounds like a description of Iran’s troubled relationship with the IAEA up to 2004, that’s because it bears striking resemblance to it. In fact, it is a description of the deception of the IAEA by the government of South Korea."
I found this over at Asia Times. Double standards for US allies versus "enemies"...not too surprising really.
Well, bankers were able to exploit Greenspan's Randian idealism, and Bernanke's ivory tower lack of street smarts. I don't think "bumbler" and "enabler" are mutually exclusive.
barfly,
TBTF with their enablers Greenspan and Bernanke have been waging "war" on the savers and the "responsible" people. We have been only complaining that they are not doing what is right. We have not put in any effort to make them do what is right. How can we vote with our feet? and I don't mean the ballot box. Financially, how can we force them?
Stop spending money you don't have to spend. Especially, stop borrowing money to make stupid consumer expenses. Pay down your debts and tell your banks and lenders to get f*cked. If you are really under water on real estate, consider your legal options and get out from under the debt in the smartest way you can.
"Financially, how can we force them? "
Stop using Feral Reserve Notes. Good luck with that one.
I was thinking we could cause a little worry if we all just asked for two hundred and forty two dollars in cash. After a few weeks they would literally run out of currency. It's hard to tell but there's maybe $300b "available" for domestic circulation. A thousand bucks apiece. I'll do my part 5 times over next time a CD rolls over and they offer 0.6%.
In 2010, interest rates will rise, but not by as much as you think.
Stocks and bonds will be flat to down. Emerging markets and other really risky sectors of the stock market will be down the most.
The U.S. dollar and ALL OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES will be down. Because all major currencies will be down at the same time, none will seem to be as weak as they are relative to the rest. This will be the first leg in a massive, orchestrated multi-year global currency devaluation.
Oil will be flat to a bit up, hitting a high of about $100 but probably not ending as high.
Gold and silver will be up...more than you think. Gold to $1,500 at some point in 2010. Silver to $25 at some point. Patient gold/silver investors who can ride out the volatility will do well. It's a good year to be timing gold/silver purchases.
Yeah...it's a waste of time ( mean to say then) if anyone thinks institutions like the IMF, for example, would listen or 'learn' how failed models of excessive deregulation crushed national economies and would care about it... Iceland is being blackmailed
What needs to happen is that cash management functions for individuals need to be separated from investment intermediation. Checking accounts and small balance savings accounts need to be offered by some sort of commercial enterprise that invests the deposits only in Treasury bills. Allowing Walmart to operate as a bank in this manner is a good example. This would be a low margin business that would be supported by the existing retail infrastructure.
Individuals seeking greater returns would have to go to investment companies, without government backstops, that would invest in specific sectors. This would mean that mortgage lending would cease to have any connection to transactional checking and savings accounts. Mortgage lenders wouldn't be able to "cross-sell" other financial products like insurance.
Wellll, I suppose China has seen a bit....I mean if you look at things under Mao anyway...and they didn't just atomize power into the hands of party officials cum mobsters...well at least not as bad as Russia.
But, outside of making IMF "benficiaries" remove restrictions on the importation of goods made by companies the providers of the "financial assistance" money laundered into...What deregulation? Or is rejiggering the regulation to be considered the same?
"What needs to happen is that cash management functions for individuals need to be separated from investment intermediation. Checking accounts and small balance savings accounts need to be offered by some sort of commercial enterprise that invests the deposits only in Treasury bills. Allowing Walmart to operate as a bank in this manner is a good example. This would be a low margin business that would be supported by the existing retail infrastructure."
Lots of allowing and forcing, and shooting and banging heads in there, but aside from a wasting a lot of energy. it does little.
Here's a thought, if you'll bear with me for a moment, but what if, and for the sake of argument, let us posit that the complexity of the world around us is based on a fractal, we had money that, by its very nature, limited the nefarious activities of the intermediaries? You know, such that, it would be in the best interest of those intermediaries to not do what they have done?
I know, it's a fantasy to believe that something as vastly complex as money could be reduced to such self regulating units. I mean, have you ever seen the regulatory code governing electrons...
rich said:
Stop spending money you don't have to spend. Especially, stop borrowing money to make stupid consumer expenses. Pay down your debts and tell your banks and lenders to get f*cked. If you are really under water on real estate, consider your legal options and get out from under the debt in the smartest way you can.
Heard Charles Payne on talk radio advocating much the same for the coming year. Mentioned several times that many people are going to be facing hard decisions including walking away...which he seemed to be advocating.
Dawg: I'm in. Let's set a day for cash withdrawal. I suggest not using a standard $ number as it draws suspicion. How about January 2: post-hangover day.
Dawg: I'm in. Let's set a day for cash withdrawal. I suggest not using a standard $ number as it draws suspicion. How about January 2: post-hangover day.
Good idea. BTW the $242 was from the movie "It's A Wonderful Life" when there was a run on the Bailey Building & Loan.
The bubble has a built in destruction of credit bomb...
Bank liquidity isn't the only threat to commercial real estate...because of the 40% (or so) decline in real estate values since 2007, loans will not qualify for refinancing due to 'post-bubble' banking standards. Ya'll know dat!
(There is no resolution possible for the bubble/bust failed values time bomb.) Lack of Bank Liquidity Threatens Commercial Real Estate Market
The swine flu scare media distraction to the time bombed economy has fizzled...MJ and Tiger media blitzkreigs have fizzled...now we are going to be blasted with Terror Scare stories...
We need more laws, more restrictions on freedoms, more paranoia of Arabic peoples, more analysis, more links to terror groups established, fear of flying, fear of crowds, etc. hey the economy is getting upchucked once more with this final nail of agoraphobia coming from gov/fed/media apparatus...hide, hide your money...be afraid!
Savers need to organize into blocks to utilize their leverage.
A Dutch bank failed recently when 15% of depositors withdrew funds. All it took was one analyst on TV saying the bank was shady.
If a few million US depositors formed a unit that coordinated all savings into whatever FDIC insured bank gave the highest rate, the .1% monopoly spreads would be busted, and banks would have to compete or face a run.
With interest rates going up...that will be another nail in consumer borrowing in addition to consumer insolvency. The economy is rigged with so many credit and declining demolitions, the discussion of any hope for resolution without Bust is fictional
I need to get back to being scared of terror. Focus. On our real problems. Everyone hates the U.S.
Indeed he will. And then there will be a great little sand point right out front. Y'all can stockpile canned goods and antibiotics or whatever. Me? I'm stockpiling a 5'11" fish.
"I need to get back to being scared of terror. Focus. On our real problems. Everyone hates the U.S. "
Apart from the guys you bomb regularly, Americans are not generally hated abroad Actually, it is the Brits with their "these natives do not know anything and let's all piss on this stupid statue"-attitude and piggish drunken behavior which are more hated. Not to mention the bad teeth and very modern ac/dc / iron maiden fashion back from the 1985
You just cannot go with five Brits (from working class) for a beer or two without two of them fighting, one puking his guts out and the rest two singing badly some football club song. Aaarrgggh.
2.7 Million? The only people that can afford a place like that are people making millions flipping houses. I used to not like real estate agents because they would leech 10% off of something that sells itself but these house flippers, They are worse.
Legalize marijuana and instead of that, you have giggling people with the munchies, riots after soccer events turn into sing ins with everyone in the right key significantly cutting down on noise pollution, domestic violence afterward takes a nose dive too; the drive home might be slower but it would be a lot safer.
That's a new export which we would excel at and be in high demand. Of course this would cause chaos in Mexico as cartels lose their clout as a whole market sector undergoes a paradigm shift, criminal enterprises in the US that don't pay taxes, all of a sudden get legit and pay taxes; a high tariff on imported weed wouldn't be a bad idea either. Boomers and others take a chill pill instead of going to tea party revolts. lol. Bill didn't inhale but a generation who did get the picture.
I've been flipping diamonds, true story. I learned about how to tell good ones from crap and have been buying them from Ebay, distressed sellers, estate sales, etc. and reselling. Avg. profit isn't 100K but it is 150%.
I've noted that bling is going for bargain basement prices (despite the pop in glod). I've been tempted to do the same but Ima big chicken (and lazy too). I figure if I've thought of it, millions of others have too. But great story therealxchick57. Raises the temptation factor.
It seems our esteemed Senator Harry Reid proposed a bill to tax indoor tanning salons, hopefully raising $2.7-billion over 10-years.
“Long-term exposure to natural or artificial sources of ultraviolet rays increases the risk of developing skin cancer,” Jim Manley, a spokesman for the Nevada Democrat, said in an e- mail. “Women who use tanning beds more than once a month are 55 percent more likely to develop malignant melanoma, the most fatal form of skin cancer.”
Is it the income revenue, the "we're your Mommy and taking care of you" angle, or is it the FedGov dictating lifestyles? I also noticed they pulled out the "hormone card" in the woman reference.........maybe it's all four.........If/When Reid gets voted out of office, I'm sure he'll return to Searchlight and remind his wife to stay out of the desert sun more due to the higher chance of skin cancer. Do you notice his son Rory,(who is running for NV governor) doesn't even use his last name while "electioneering"? We definitely DO need another lawyer politician though.
....I want a politician who has worked longer than he/she has gone to school. Also, one who has worked in private enterprise longer than in various governmental jobs.
If I ran the circus, the circus will have apparatchiks, money-jugglers and clowns from 1033 faraway towns. At first, Mr. Sneelock will sell balloons and pink lemonade (all 500 billion of it). By the end, he does the greatest circus feat of all time, diving four thousand, six hundred, and ninety-two feet into a fish bowl. Don't ask me how he'll manage. That's his job. Not mine.
I know a bit about Mr Frank's FIRE connections and loyalties
As a former constituent of Frank's, the most critical point is that a majority of his middle class and upper middle class constituents are exposed to six figure losses should their homes be priced correctly and fairly, as if proper underwriting were being done, and normal interest rates being applied. He must have hundreds of calls each week demanding housing prices stay up, no matter the cost.
"Sales fell 13 percent to $6.9 billion on the last Saturday before Christmas from the previous year, according to Chicago- based researcher ShopperTrak RCT Corp. A year ago, that was the second-biggest shopping day after Black Friday, the day after U.S. Thanksgiving."
WOW 13% and last year was horrific too. I read Best Buys lower expectations because people were only buying highly discounted items..iow...not making much of a profit and basically just inventory reduction.
I don't know about anyone else but in my neck of the woods...the worst of the recession in housing has been relatively sheltered thus far in property values (resort area with short supply in affordable housing). That being said, lots on the market, few buyers and CRE for sale signs are multiplying like tribbles around here. In 01/02...and beyond there were bidding wars over housing in the mid-range (affordable). Now homes in that range are just sitting unoccupied. We don't have many box stores. Linens and Things and the Circuit City storefronts are still sitting empty. A long time and quite popular local-only restaurant biz busted 2 years ago...large (relatively) for this area establishments are still sitting empty too.
Yes, it appears to me that a 13% reduction is significant...unless you are speaking of incomes to states, long term unemployment compensation increases, or other esoteric falderal....
He meant they added the Marshalls yesterday so he come on the teevee and say... "...we added air marshalls to international flights coming into this country."
It's interesting you should arrive at this conclusion, JD. When TSA ramped up, I predicted the day would come when all passengers would surrender all positions at check-in, and be issued white Tyvec jumpsuits before being allowed to fly.
not_going_to_post:
"... The first time homebuyer tax credit and FHA lending to anything with a pulse has easily had a 50k boost in asking prices over a year ago. What would have been a 200k property last year is a 260-270k property now. Seems like gravity has been suspended. Almost the entire low end is flipped properties. ..."
Same story here in The OC. The government programs (FHA loans, first time buyers credit, ...) are enriching the flippers. Court sales are cash only so there is little competition. The properties are flipped in weeks to FHA buyers who are buying with essentially nothing down, so prices are excessive. In the end this is a transfer of Federal money to the flippers. The real kicker is that a majority of the flippers are former subprime brokers.
I guess it shouldn't be surprising that the loss mitigation department is just as lacking for talent now. But it still seems crazy that the bank could be so far off on the current value of a property. Plus, what about all this nonsense about banks needing to pay bonuses to retain talent. Can't the pay czar hold up a story like this and tell Chase they have no talent!
On the upside there was fraud overstating values of homes for profit. On the downside, I wouldn't be surprised at fraud understating values. It seems all you need is someone with money or credit, and conspirators who are either appraisers, loan servicers, or both. Give it 18-24 months before we start to get the news stories and convictions. The bank sells in bulk without the market seeing any prices. That could be a bank favorite. If you sell a big portfolio, does that avoid messing with the comps (because the prices of individual homes isn't known?
So we learned nothing. Great.
One flip a day keeps debt collectors aways
.....what is he doing in my house?
Black Star Ranch wrote:
It would be nice for a week long vacation rental, but live there? I would not get anything done, your milking will go begging!
Black Star Ranch wrote:
He iz eatin' allz u r profitz.
That first step off the balcony is a biggie.
Damn, I was thinking 2012 for coastal sanity, now I'm thinking 2013-2014.
Have to give it to the flippers, though -- at least they're working to set market prices! More than the Fed is helping to do... I pray for 7% mortgages to clear up this mess...
......milking?.......LOL......the first time I had to climb up one or two set of stairs would wipe out this old COPD stroker......
patientrenter from a previous thread:
Anyone rational making bets should bet against collection getting much. But whether they try to create a new class of indentured debt slaves is the bet -- and I bet they try.
DCRogers wrote:
And I bet there is an increase in BK if they try to collect.
I'm confused. How can the flipper sell these houses so quickly, when we hear about bank listed properties sitting forever with no bids. Is it that the bank first asks for 100% of owed, doesn't get it then immediately sells for 50% of owed on the courthouse steps? Is it only WaMu properties that are being sold this way? It seems like the sort of thing for a reporter to dig into. Somehow the examples listed here don't jive with what we've been hearing about bank-listed properties.
just seconds from the sand
DCRogers wrote:
There is always someone trying to make money from someone else. That's just the background radiation. If the amounts are small in the aggregate, then it's not economically relevant.
If actual collections on deficiencies start to become significant then I'll be very surprised and interested. The political pressure to not collect in large amounts is enormous. I assure you that laws would be changed if the collection rates started to become significant.
By the way, mortgage loans in Germany and lots of other countries that have systems we regard as relatively socialist are full recourse - and they actually collect. But then they have a cultural bias that favors strict loan repayment. Argentina doesn't, nor does the US any more. Every country chooses its own economic system, reflecting the proclivities and relative ambitions of its citizens. The future then determines the economic winners and the losers.
patientrenter wrote:
We've always been a nation that was founded specifically on "a new start" strategy more so than the freedom of religion angle. Since banks are much more in control of our federal government now, I see a return to recourse collection as practiced by most banks outside the US. Once the massively pooled blood is cleaned up, the only blood left is what's still on the floor.
"I'm confused. How can the flipper sell these houses so quickly,"
It's called expertise. Guy knows his business and his market. Probably has a crew of hand picked go getters who know their shite as well. The only way you could do better would be through gov't beuracracy.
Greg Mankiw's Blog: Crises and Government
sorry for the intrusion, lookin for an old red hat
Did anyone notice that from the bathtub with the spectacular view you can look down on the next-door neighbor's hot tub? I'm not sure I'd want to pay that much money for that part of the view.
......I would imagine it depends on if the neighbor has a trophy wife........just sayin'....
And on the theme of what BSR posted in
thread,
Selling all appliances
Awesome. Any cash offer. That has to suck.
Jonathan (profile) wrote on Sat, 12/26/2009 - 8:10 pm
And on the theme of what BSR posted in Pigged thread,
Selling all appliances
Awesome. Any cash offer. That has to suck.
That's all fine but the washing machine will never work installed at that angle.
They need a level or something.
"......I would imagine it depends on if the neighbor has a trophy wife"
Or if the neighbor is a hawt cougar with a casual disregard for the gender of her playthings...In fact, I prefer my fantasy....
Gross’s Total Return Fund Now Biggest in Mutual-Fund History - Bloomberg.com
People just seem to keep dumping money into bond funds. I wonder if this means anything.
OT.
CR,
of Jan 21, 2009. But obviously the numbers of the final stimulus package are going to be slightly different from these. This report also does not have Dr. Zandi's projected contribution of the stimulus to the GDP growth.
Just as a follow up, these data are from an earlier version of Dr. Zandi's analysis (which was based on an early House version). This has the information all the way to end of 2010. Table 1 on Page 8 of The Economic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
Q2 2009 over Q1 2009 : $ 89 B (=89 -
Q3 2009 over Q2 2009 : $ 29B (=118-89)
Q4 2009 over Q3 2009 : $ 17B (=135-118)
Q1 2010 over Q4 2009 : $ 7B (=142-135)
Q2 2010 over Q1 2010 : $ -10B (=132-142)
Q3 2010 over Q2 2010 : $ -16B (=116-132)
Q4 2010 over Q3 2010 : $ -22B (=94-116)
So the Annualized growth rate contributions from the stimulus should be :
Q2 2009: 2.50%
Q3 2009: 0.81%
Q4 2009: 0.47%
Q1 2010: 0.19%
Q2 2010: -0.28%
Q3 2010: -0.44%
Q4 2010: -0.61%
So except for Q2 2009, the contribution of the Stimulus to the GDP growth is < 1%.
Ofcourse, Dr. Zandi's analysis would have included the multiplier effect of each of the components of the stimulus as in Table 2, Page 9.
curious wrote:
Bank employees' performances are no longer assessed on their expertise at good lending, and at good loss mitigation when things go poorly. So the bank employees in charge of the home loans don't know a lot about the properties, and don't really much care what the actual losses are. Do you think there is a senior manager at JPM checking to ensure that they get at least 90% of the retail value of their most valuable properties? Obviously not. It is quite possible this loan was re-sold to another investor, so JPM doesn't care what the losses are in any case.
The US home loan system is screwed up really badly. No one cares about making bad loans. No one cares about mitigating losses. It's like a bad cross between the Soviet Union, where no one was held accountable for economic losses (unless they were in a critical sector) and normal private industry, where managers can be paid millions because they are accountable.
Housing seems to be really kinda hitting the skids, right
:not snark:
They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No-one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of money,
Buying there-under, next to the sea!
Everyone loves the king of the sea,
Ever so kind and gentle is he,
Tricks he will do when clients appear,
And how they laugh when he's near!
They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No-one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of mone-e-e-e-e,
Selling there-under, next the sea!
Bespoke Premium - Welcome!
seems to be bullish on housing prospects, worth a look if you're into that sorta thing.
*edit grammar check
Yeah, I keep remembering all the comments Tanta made about the loss of real talent at banks as they looked to drive down the costs of underwriting and originating. I guess it shouldn't be surprising that the loss mitigation department is just as lacking for talent now. But it still seems crazy that the bank could be so far off on the current value of a property. Plus, what about all this nonsense about banks needing to pay bonuses to retain talent. Can't the pay czar hold up a story like this and tell Chase they have no talent!
Potential buyers can find out what the flipper paid, estimate the cost of any work done by the flipper and make a starting bid that gives the flipper a reasonable but not outrageous return on the investment. Of course, "trying for $1 million profit" means "looking for knifecatcher with money to burn".
patientrenter wrote:
By the way, mortgage loans in Germany and lots of other countries that have systems we regard as relatively socialist are full recourse - and they actually collect. But then they have a cultural bias that favors strict loan repayment. Argentina doesn't, nor does the US any more. Every country chooses its own economic system, reflecting the proclivities and relative ambitions of its citizens. The future then determines the economic winners and the losers. "
It depends on the state what the legal theory is re: recourse. Florida for example is a recourse state, California is not. However most lenders ask themselves if there is any blood left in the turnip that was the borrower, and say not enough to bother, given the political heat a serious pursuit of recourse would result in. (Think string up the bankers...) The only way to get out of the recourse judgement is of course to go bankrupt. Note that if you did a cash out re-fi Ca at least the cash out is recourse. (Its only purchase money that is non-recourse). Also for those who took cash out, when you default uncle will want income tax on the cash out. (The law exempts just purchase money from the tax on the 1099-C). IMHO using the house as an ATM is just plain stupid, the only reason to borrow more is for improvements which can add to the value.
Oil, Dollar, Housing, SPY, FXY.
outperform US Bonds, Corporate Bonds, and, and, and Junk Bonds.
Muni's get a pass.
Gold is flat in 2010.
"Potential buyers can find out what the flipper paid, estimate the cost of any work done by the flipper and make a starting bid that gives the flipper a reasonable but not outrageous return on the investment."
Works great if you're the only customer. The snag is, that this guy already knows what the buyers are looking for, how many there are, and has a good idea of what they'll pay. He's likely doing nothing more than cleaning these places.
¥
2010
curious wrote:
Ken Feinberg could, but I suspect that he is a fox in the henhouse, despite all the noise. For example, no one at a company should receive a bonus for a year when the company lost more shareholders' money than it earned, yet Feinberg is approving such bonuses. Total bonuses at banks and other financial firms are expected to be near peak levels, even though we all know they are losing taxpayers' money every day, and are held up only by continued massive support from the Fed and Treasury = the tapxayer.
Feinberg and Geithner and Bernanke and Summers and Dodd and Frank are all on the same page on what they want done, and bank reform as we think of it is not on their agenda.
"Can't the pay czar hold up a story like this and tell Chase they have no talent! "
No talent! These guys have soaked the entire country for trillions, and are continuing to do so.
ldmeier wrote:
This one just never dies, does it?
Banks are not pursuing recourse on home loans. Total recourse collections are minuscule, a rounding error. It's a legal theory that is irrelevant in practice.
For once and for all, can anyone who has seen real data showing significant collections of recourse loans please post here? If not, then I vote for moving on. Sigh.
Edit: Oh, and I have yet to hear of the IRS actually collecting taxes on a home loan forgiveness. Again, it appears to be all theory, with very little actually collected. Data to the contrary, please post!
US investors find a fondness for dividends on utilities.
do not pass go, do not collect 200 dollars.
I own both utilities, roll the bones x10
the bulk of forgiveness WRT home losses are in year two of a three year deal.
well past halfway.
Nevada commercial is in its death throes........
Commercial real estate collapse claims Village Square - Breaking News - ReviewJournal.com
.....talked with an old boy who buys contents of LV storage units. More volume and more junk. The past owners have sold off the "high-end" stuff before letting the storage unit junk go as well. Many more foreign competitors also - stuff is now shipped off-shore.
......time to milk......despues.......
I thought mp was posting something tonight.
i gotta cook fajitas.
For once and for all, just because recourse has historically not been of practical import doesn't mean it will continue that way.
It is easier than ever before to track assets hidden around the world. Things are different this time. Parking violations that have been ignored for decades suddenly rack up tickets when the municipality is facing default.
BSR, CRE loan losses will be at a high rate, and some banks will get crushed. But CRE loans are only 1/4 of RRE loans, so the total damage to the economy will be less than for RRE. You probably already know this, but I am just posting to add some perspective.
Cassandra Does Tokyo: 10 Surprises for 2010
just wanted to get this one in tonight for energy econ
-DISENFRANCHISED NATIVE AMERICAN NATURAL GAS ROYALTY ReCIPIENT.
hedged in lettuce, strawberries, and hazelnuts.
That nutella seems to be all the rage. Always liked Frangelico on my crepe.
Sounds like he can just cruise and "kick back" for a while.
This is just frustrating for me. I've been renting in San Diego since 2003. I waited out the bubble, thought things were going my way, then we got this government/bank intervention and collusion. Last year would have been a better year to buy. I'm looking in the 180k-220k range. Last year that market was a buyer's market with some descent properties. This year that market hardly exists. The first time homebuyer tax credit and FHA lending to anything with a pulse has easily had a 50k boost in asking prices over a year ago. What would have been a 200k property last year is a 260-270k property now. Seems like gravity has been suspended. Almost the entire low end is flipped properties. I just don't quite have the cash to buy a place outright at the courthouse so I'm left looking at properties flippers are making 60-80k off from the non discriminating buyer and lender. Seems like my timeframe to buy keeps getting further away. Inventory absolutely sucks and flippers are making a killing. It is not a rumor. San Diego is completely insane.
Fra Angelico...
:weeps: in the cell......
seriously, I am leaving....you cantt all be my friends.
Wait a minute. Is this guy Carlton Sheets?
not_going_to_post wrote:
Mr Bernanke is pleased to hear things are going according to plan. He thanks you for your report, and for his current use of your savings. Now get back to the salt mines of responsibility to labor for the benefit and profit of the irresponsible.
All my savings has been sitting in a no yield checking account for some time now. There is no good place to put it and I've been thinking I might be using half of it for a down payment. I've seriously toyed with taking it all out and keeping cash at home...just to spite the bank.
not_going_to_post wrote:
As you are renting, decide you are lucky and can move. Find someplace with less expensive real estate, that you like, and move there. Buy something in your new home city.
not_going_to_post wrote:
I hate the idea of giving these guys my money so they can use it to price responsible people like you out of the housing market. But I don't want to lose a large amount of my money in a theft or fire, so I am stuck with leaving it in banks and money markets. The system is being highly abusive right now to more responsible people, but things might get better. Use what has happened to learn valuable lessons and perspectives about the future. Who knows, maybe in 30 years what you've seen now will enable you to see what will really happen then better than the head of the Fed, and you can use it to make some money for yourself!
not_going_to_post,
Why would you put ALL your savings in a "no yield" checking account. Why don't you shop around for banks that give you some decent yield - maybe 2%. I know it is still low but it is better than 0%. If enough people in our country do this, it also puts pressure on your 0% yield bank to raise their rates.
Unfortunately moving is not really an option. Split custody thing and another 6+ years until kid is 18. I can't leave San Diego county without court permission/custody revision. I'd love to move to a lower cost portion of the country.
I wish I had known that instead of sitting here moaning about the state of the economy, I could've been out there flipping hundreds of homes this year at 101% sale to listing price, 10 days average on market.
What are we belly aching about again? I'm starting to lose my focus here.
I tried a 2% "online only" account. Has not been a good experience, can't wait to close it. In short, dodgy web interface, dodgy customer support. Not worth it, for me.
Because I went liquid, don't like money market accounts and really thought I was going to buy. ALL of my savings isn't as much as most here I would presume. I guess maybe I'd get .5% on a saving account, but why even bother?
not_going_to_post wrote:
If you can take a long term perspective, then RRE is still vulnerable to price decreases. All that's holding it up now is truly massive govt intervention and subsidies. Baby boomers will start retiring in numbers in 2012. And the Chinese will not want to get paid in depreciating dollars forever, so they will eventually reduce their trade surplus with us. When that happens, we will have a downturn in US asset prices. Over the next 10 years, RRE is vulnerable.
To buy RE now would mean you don't care if you would lose your down payment to further drops in RE value if more shocks or deflationary forces hit the economy. Also, if employment is guaranteed to be stable that would help.
If someone suggests buying now tell them if you could use their money especially for the down payment that would be convincing enough to take the chance buying RE now in an instable economy..
correction - unstable as in risky as hell.
It costs money to operate a bank, even with FDIC welfare. We could have a public option, like the Postal Service, which operates at a loss.
I'm certain we'd be better off nationally with such a public system in the long run.
Flippers will get stuck again in mid-stream in the next leg down.
Public systems can be corrupted too.
" Last year that market was a buyer's market with some descent properties. This year that market hardly exists."
So you waited, thinking prices would drop further, but they didn't. Damn flippers beat you to it.
Just wait'll the interest rates go up. Then you're really gonna get a good deal!
Of course.
not_going_to_post,
You can do better than 0.5% on some of these online savings accounts.
Why should you bother - only if sufficient people move their funds away from these 0% yield bank accounts into higher yield savings accounts, will these TBTF banks start serving customers - raising their deposit rates.
Seriously, look at the Total deposits at Wells Fargo - $439B from the FDIC website. This is ~ 35% of their total balance sheet. Even if a 1/4 of those deposits are pulled out to other smaller banks, I am sure you will start seeing a big reaction (positive to us) from these TBTF banks.
barfly quoted:
Oh, how they can descend...
Freudian slip. Good eye.
I tried a 2% "online only" account. Has not been a good experience, can't wait to close it. In short, dodgy web interface, dodgy customer support. Not worth it, for me.
photon,
Maybe you should post about them at some review sites.
hey bANK,
Yes, just in the last two weeks I read something about Chevron receiving shale gas lease(s?) in Poland...
edit: added a link
US Firm Chevron Gets Gas Exploration License In Poland - WSJ.com
The house in that Jim The Realtor video is terrible, just terrible.
And it sits on a cliff.
God will take care of it.
If the dollar gets back to devaluing 0.50% a day or whatever the rate of devaluation returns to, I wouldn't worry about a bank account interest rate.
Didn't know there were bank review sites. Now you tell me.
Fascinating.
hey,patientrenter, I saw where a few days back, you asked me if I had heard anything, with regard to "financial services reform". I was referring to Barney Frank's hearings, held hast summer, early fall. I would be highly surprised (and pissed) if they just dropped the issue. They're probably doing all the smoke-filled back room stuff, now, and it'll have to be worked on by the House and Senate, but I'm willing to bet the final product will have some teeth, contrary to your seeming expectation. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time.
mp wrote:
For a second or two, I thought maybe I should have bought it, or one like it. Then I realized I might need to amortize that $1.6 mill investment over 20 years, until the cliff collapses. Oh, wait, if I mortgage it to the hilt, it doesn't matter! I still haven't fully adapted to the US home market.
I recall President Obama saying in March or so, "I want bank reform legislation on my desk [presumably to sign or veto] by the end of the year."
barfly wrote:
I hope I am wrong, barfly.
Here's a story that indicates where I come from on all these truly 'inside' guys, from both parties. I don't know if the writer has an agenda that makes the facts or spin less than fully trustworthy, but the first page rings true with me, and I know a bit about Mr Frank's FIRE connections and loyalties.
How Wall Street Bought Barney Frank | Corporate Accountability and WorkPlace | AlterNet
They can't pass a bank reform package. They don't have enough money to give away to the banks, so they have to keep doing it under the table.
It's not like insurance reform where they can pass a law now and pretend they are going to spend the money in 2014.
photon,
. It carries reviews for each of the listed accounts. I don't know if you will like the web interface
I found this site to be pretty useful - Bank Deals - Best Rates and Deals
Yes, God will certainly take care of it. Like the view from one tub to another. Down the cliff they all go with a good rain. It must say something about the human psyche that people are willing to spend huge amounts of money just to have a good view of nature.....in the city.
I don't believe they want a bank reform package with teeth. It will have to be clawed, as all major reform has been.
Perhaps the money on the sidelines should consider going long steel, Shanghai and HK heavy industry equities, cement, Australia-China shipping, light industrial fabrication...
China unveils 'world's fastest train link' - Yahoo! News
That's - I believe the the technical term is - an asston of track and rolling stock.
C
The best thing the doomers can do now is give up on trying to blow a whistle and just face the fact that this economic decline has been coming for years now...loss of manufacturing, outsourcing, stagnant wages, credit bubbles, etc. All of the reasons this decline is happening have been repeated over and over again.
So now...what will the admin and fed/gov do?...just deny it's getting worse...that won't change. They are preparing behind the scenes for the fallout of failed policies in the so-called public interest.
A lot of exec orders and renewal of orders just to make sure there is protection for property rights and a new structure is developing to keep the economy functioning.
The blame game is a waste of time really because it will all be water under the bridge and a new challenge is coming to adapt to an economy drained of it's ability to function without government control.
All of the financial/currency crisis econ research means nothing to what's happening in preventing it or taking a course that won't be more authoritarian. All that stuff predicting what would or could happen was ignored in favor of doing what was described as the reason a crisis would occur.
mof,
banks. No changes are going to happen unless the
banks become irrelevant. The only way we can do that is to remove their very reason for existence - kill their deposit base.
I agree with you that the interest rates are moot in the face of the USD devaluation. The point here is not just interest rates but moving the deposit base away from the
Oh, but trans-pacific shipping, eastbound, not so much...
Trans-Pacific Spot Rates Stabilize | Journal of Commerce
Part of a continuing series - Cartels We Know and Love In Spite of the Beatings.
C
"The only way we can do that is to remove their very reason for existence -"
a little subversion in the air. I like it.
"The only way we can do that is to remove their very reason for existence -"
Providing enough financial rope for politicians to hang themselves?
The media is crucial to keeping the public opinion and interest looking in the direction of scapegoats now that the damage to the economy has been done and can't or won't be undone.
barfly,
TBTF with their enablers Greenspan and Bernanke have been waging "war" on the savers and the "responsible" people. We have been only complaining that they are not doing what is right. We have not put in any effort to make them do what is right. How can we vote with our feet? and I don't mean the ballot box. Financially, how can we force them?
"Financially, how can we force them? "
financially, like you said. Vote with your dollars. It's all you can do.
"have been waging "war""
Pffflll. They've been fleecing the public since 1913. They've goten a bit...voracious...of late though.
"Financially, how can we force them? "
Stop using Feral Reserve Notes. Good luck with that one.
There is actually a market force at work in the economic decline because of failed business and lending models...consumers aren't spending as much and are delaying large purchases in many cases from not wanting to borrow and/or spend but also because many consumers now can't borrow and spend because of unemployment or job worry.
The consumer has been downsized from credit destruction and failed lending programs.
This is an ongoing destruction process and it's not creative just destructive.
South Korea covert nuclear activity- worse than Iran « Wasatch Economics
"In 2004, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) revealed that a member state had violated its Safeguards Agreement by carrying out covert uranium conversion and enrichment activities and plutonium experiments for more than two decades. The nature of some of those enrichment activities, moreover, raised legitimate suspicions of interest in a nuclear weapons program.
The state was found to have lied to the IAEA even when the authority began investigating these suspicious activities, with the country concerned claiming that its laser enrichment research did not involve any use of nuclear material.
If that sounds like a description of Iran’s troubled relationship with the IAEA up to 2004, that’s because it bears striking resemblance to it. In fact, it is a description of the deception of the IAEA by the government of South Korea."
I found this over at Asia Times. Double standards for US allies versus "enemies"...not too surprising really.
"TBTF with their enablers Greenspan and Bernanke have been waging "war" on the savers and the "responsible" people. "
I thought they were "bumblers" who didn't know what they were doing. Which is it?
'Dozens of countries have defaulted on their debts in recent decades...'
Web of Debt - EU/IMF REVOLT: GREECE, ICELAND, LATVIA MAY LEAD THE WAY
Well, bankers were able to exploit Greenspan's Randian idealism, and Bernanke's ivory tower lack of street smarts. I don't think "bumbler" and "enabler" are mutually exclusive.
Stop spending money you don't have to spend. Especially, stop borrowing money to make stupid consumer expenses. Pay down your debts and tell your banks and lenders to get f*cked. If you are really under water on real estate, consider your legal options and get out from under the debt in the smartest way you can.
Well, if the blame game is a waste of time, I'll keep wasting away. I'm more interested in truth and learning than growth of GDP anyway.
Comrade Misean is Dope wrote:
I was thinking we could cause a little worry if we all just asked for two hundred and forty two dollars in cash. After a few weeks they would literally run out of currency. It's hard to tell but there's maybe $300b "available" for domestic circulation. A thousand bucks apiece. I'll do my part 5 times over next time a CD rolls over and they offer 0.6%.
In 2010, interest rates will rise, but not by as much as you think.
Stocks and bonds will be flat to down. Emerging markets and other really risky sectors of the stock market will be down the most.
The U.S. dollar and ALL OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES will be down. Because all major currencies will be down at the same time, none will seem to be as weak as they are relative to the rest. This will be the first leg in a massive, orchestrated multi-year global currency devaluation.
Oil will be flat to a bit up, hitting a high of about $100 but probably not ending as high.
Gold and silver will be up...more than you think. Gold to $1,500 at some point in 2010. Silver to $25 at some point. Patient gold/silver investors who can ride out the volatility will do well. It's a good year to be timing gold/silver purchases.
Yeah...it's a waste of time ( mean to say then) if anyone thinks institutions like the IMF, for example, would listen or 'learn' how failed models of excessive deregulation crushed national economies and would care about it...
Iceland is being blackmailed
Counterpointer wrote:
metric asston, they are slightly larger...
"I was thinking we could cause a little worry if we all just asked for two hundred and forty two dollars in cash."
Well, that fear kicked off the crack up boom in tech stocks.
Still, I thought the answer was 42...
What needs to happen is that cash management functions for individuals need to be separated from investment intermediation. Checking accounts and small balance savings accounts need to be offered by some sort of commercial enterprise that invests the deposits only in Treasury bills. Allowing Walmart to operate as a bank in this manner is a good example. This would be a low margin business that would be supported by the existing retail infrastructure.
Individuals seeking greater returns would have to go to investment companies, without government backstops, that would invest in specific sectors. This would mean that mortgage lending would cease to have any connection to transactional checking and savings accounts. Mortgage lenders wouldn't be able to "cross-sell" other financial products like insurance.
"failed models of excessive deregulation"
They've been tried? Where?
Wellll, I suppose China has seen a bit....I mean if you look at things under Mao anyway...and they didn't just atomize power into the hands of party officials cum mobsters...well at least not as bad as Russia.
But, outside of making IMF "benficiaries" remove restrictions on the importation of goods made by companies the providers of the "financial assistance" money laundered into...What deregulation? Or is rejiggering the regulation to be considered the same?
Gawd, I know that, but I was writing for a largely Merican audience...
C
"What needs to happen is that cash management functions for individuals need to be separated from investment intermediation. Checking accounts and small balance savings accounts need to be offered by some sort of commercial enterprise that invests the deposits only in Treasury bills. Allowing Walmart to operate as a bank in this manner is a good example. This would be a low margin business that would be supported by the existing retail infrastructure."
Lots of allowing and forcing, and shooting and banging heads in there, but aside from a wasting a lot of energy. it does little.
Here's a thought, if you'll bear with me for a moment, but what if, and for the sake of argument, let us posit that the complexity of the world around us is based on a fractal, we had money that, by its very nature, limited the nefarious activities of the intermediaries? You know, such that, it would be in the best interest of those intermediaries to not do what they have done?
I know, it's a fantasy to believe that something as vastly complex as money could be reduced to such self regulating units. I mean, have you ever seen the regulatory code governing electrons...
rich said:
Stop spending money you don't have to spend. Especially, stop borrowing money to make stupid consumer expenses. Pay down your debts and tell your banks and lenders to get f*cked. If you are really under water on real estate, consider your legal options and get out from under the debt in the smartest way you can.
Heard Charles Payne on talk radio advocating much the same for the coming year. Mentioned several times that many people are going to be facing hard decisions including walking away...which he seemed to be advocating.
Rosethorn: interesting story on S. Korea.
Dawg: I'm in. Let's set a day for cash withdrawal. I suggest not using a standard $ number as it draws suspicion. How about January 2: post-hangover day.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Good idea. BTW the $242 was from the movie "It's A Wonderful Life" when there was a run on the Bailey Building & Loan.
The bubble has a built in destruction of credit bomb...
Bank liquidity isn't the only threat to commercial real estate...because of the 40% (or so) decline in real estate values since 2007, loans will not qualify for refinancing due to 'post-bubble' banking standards. Ya'll know dat!
(There is no resolution possible for the bubble/bust failed values time bomb.)
Lack of Bank Liquidity Threatens Commercial Real Estate Market
that must be like 40000 inflation adjusted
The swine flu scare media distraction to the time bombed economy has fizzled...MJ and Tiger media blitzkreigs have fizzled...now we are going to be blasted with Terror Scare stories...
We need more laws, more restrictions on freedoms, more paranoia of Arabic peoples, more analysis, more links to terror groups established, fear of flying, fear of crowds, etc. hey the economy is getting upchucked once more with this final nail of agoraphobia coming from gov/fed/media apparatus...hide, hide your money...be afraid!
"BTW the $242 was from the movie "It's A Wonderful Life""
A movie I can happily say I have never seen. Good pull though.
Nytol.
Savers need to organize into blocks to utilize their leverage.
A Dutch bank failed recently when 15% of depositors withdrew funds. All it took was one analyst on TV saying the bank was shady.
If a few million US depositors formed a unit that coordinated all savings into whatever FDIC insured bank gave the highest rate, the .1% monopoly spreads would be busted, and banks would have to compete or face a run.
With interest rates going up...that will be another nail in consumer borrowing in addition to consumer insolvency. The economy is rigged with so many credit and declining demolitions, the discussion of any hope for resolution without Bust is fictional
I need to get back to being scared of terror. Focus. On our real problems. Everyone hates the U.S.
Insert declining fantasy bubble values
Karl D is really getting worked up about terror and has posted a long rant about it.
You mean, 'Karl D is really getting worked up about [X] and has posted a long rant about it. '
Karl wants to boycott the airlines...needs to go in the Merchants of Fear column.
911 to failed bomb in underwear...we are winning the War on Terror!
Didn't FDR say that the only thing we had to fear was "fear" itself. Sort of the opposite approach to today's government, no?
Indeed he will. And then there will be a great little sand point right out front. Y'all can stockpile canned goods and antibiotics or whatever. Me? I'm stockpiling a 5'11" fish.
"I need to get back to being scared of terror. Focus. On our real problems. Everyone hates the U.S. "
Apart from the guys you bomb regularly, Americans are not generally hated abroad
Actually, it is the Brits with their "these natives do not know anything and let's all piss on this stupid statue"-attitude and piggish drunken behavior which are more hated. Not to mention the bad teeth and very modern ac/dc / iron maiden fashion back from the 1985 
You just cannot go with five Brits (from working class) for a beer or two without two of them fighting, one puking his guts out and the rest two singing badly some football club song. Aaarrgggh.
But but how can you argue against comparative advantage!?
In other merriment, here's Count Vikula getting a kicking in the below the line items:
Citigroup’s Crystal Ball Too Fogged Up to Work: Jonathan Weil - Bloomberg.com
C
Edit: ok, already linked, but this gag should be good for another quarter at least.
mp wrote:
Poe wrote a good story about that house.
2.7 Million? The only people that can afford a place like that are people making millions flipping houses. I used to not like real estate agents because they would leech 10% off of something that sells itself but these house flippers, They are worse.
Legalize marijuana and instead of that, you have giggling people with the munchies, riots after soccer events turn into sing ins with everyone in the right key significantly cutting down on noise pollution, domestic violence afterward takes a nose dive too; the drive home might be slower but it would be a lot safer.
That's a new export which we would excel at and be in high demand.
Of course this would cause chaos in Mexico as cartels lose their clout as a whole market sector undergoes a paradigm shift, criminal enterprises in the US that don't pay taxes, all of a sudden get legit and pay taxes; a high tariff on imported weed wouldn't be a bad idea either. Boomers and others take a chill pill instead of going to tea party revolts. lol. Bill didn't inhale but a generation who did get the picture.
I've been flipping diamonds, true story. I learned about how to tell good ones from crap and have been buying them from Ebay, distressed sellers, estate sales, etc. and reselling. Avg. profit isn't 100K but it is 150%.
I've noted that bling is going for bargain basement prices (despite the pop in glod). I've been tempted to do the same but Ima big chicken (and lazy too). I figure if I've thought of it, millions of others have too. But great story therealxchick57. Raises the temptation factor.
I speak of the pompitous of loan.
It seems our esteemed Senator Harry Reid proposed a bill to tax indoor tanning salons, hopefully raising $2.7-billion over 10-years.
Tanning Salons Say Tax Would Trigger Job Cuts, Store Closings - BusinessWeek
Is it the income revenue, the "we're your Mommy and taking care of you" angle, or is it the FedGov dictating lifestyles? I also noticed they pulled out the "hormone card" in the woman reference.........maybe it's all four.........If/When Reid gets voted out of office, I'm sure he'll return to Searchlight and remind his wife to stay out of the desert sun more due to the higher chance of skin cancer. Do you notice his son Rory,(who is running for NV governor) doesn't even use his last name while "electioneering"? We definitely DO need another lawyer politician though.
....I want a politician who has worked longer than he/she has gone to school. Also, one who has worked in private enterprise longer than in various governmental jobs.
We have our eye on you.
If I ran the circus, the circus will have apparatchiks, money-jugglers and clowns from 1033 faraway towns. At first, Mr. Sneelock will sell balloons and pink lemonade (all 500 billion of it). By the end, he does the greatest circus feat of all time, diving four thousand, six hundred, and ninety-two feet into a fish bowl. Don't ask me how he'll manage. That's his job. Not mine.
JD<
What was your movie suggestion yesterday?
"Fireman's Ball"?
that lost me, JD........morning all
......I never realized it, but CR is tied to his 'puter' more than I'm tied to my cows.........tough life.........
,rad BSR,
Morris McGurk does not lurk in your childhood?
.....Ahhhh......(It took a search) I wasn't ever exposed to Doc Suess while growing up............nor were the kids much that I can recall.
You know, until we kill the lawyers, the revolution
hasn't started. Maybe allow lawyer liz to repent.
As a former constituent of Frank's, the most critical point is that a majority of his middle class and upper middle class constituents are exposed to six figure losses should their homes be priced correctly and fairly, as if proper underwriting were being done, and normal interest rates being applied. He must have hundreds of calls each week demanding housing prices stay up, no matter the cost.
Good morning ,rad Gnome,
Yeah, that's it.
JD<
Thanks.
Hu let the Led out?
YouTube - Led Zeppelin -- Dazed and Confused
.....I want some of what they're smoking............
Retailers Shift Focus to Post-Holiday Deals to Lure Buyers - Bloomberg.com
"Sales fell 13 percent to $6.9 billion on the last Saturday before Christmas from the previous year, according to Chicago- based researcher ShopperTrak RCT Corp. A year ago, that was the second-biggest shopping day after Black Friday, the day after U.S. Thanksgiving."
...Housing up...retail sales,down?
So, only a small amount of properties are being bought @ trustee sales, which means there's a huge overhang of dreck, in Tijuana-adjacent.
And by the way, Cliff-diving comes with the territory, eh?
oy!nk?
Black Star Ranch wrote:
just flashed on two shocking images involving more than one person in each
Can't take a ball & chain into the wilderness...
Obummer's presser on Meet the Pressed said "...we added air marshalls to international flights coming into this country."
okay
where was the air marshall on the flight in question
WOW 13% and last year was horrific too. I read Best Buys lower expectations because people were only buying highly discounted items..iow...not making much of a profit and basically just inventory reduction.
I don't know about anyone else but in my neck of the woods...the worst of the recession in housing has been relatively sheltered thus far in property values (resort area with short supply in affordable housing). That being said, lots on the market, few buyers and CRE for sale signs are multiplying like tribbles around here. In 01/02...and beyond there were bidding wars over housing in the mid-range (affordable). Now homes in that range are just sitting unoccupied. We don't have many box stores. Linens and Things and the Circuit City storefronts are still sitting empty. A long time and quite popular local-only restaurant biz busted 2 years ago...large (relatively) for this area establishments are still sitting empty too.
Jobs~
Think of all the new air marshals flying frequent miles...
@Nanoo:
Yes, it appears to me that a 13% reduction is significant...unless you are speaking of incomes to states, long term unemployment compensation increases, or other esoteric falderal....
I can't see good things ahead for the airline biz.
Maybe they should require that all passengers fly buck naked, with no carryons.
There is no limit to fear-induced paranoia. And it doesn't lead to a good place in personal freedom.
He meant they added the Marshalls yesterday so he come on the teevee and say... "...we added air marshalls to international flights coming into this country."
It's interesting you should arrive at this conclusion, JD. When TSA ramped up, I predicted the day would come when all passengers would surrender all positions at check-in, and be issued white Tyvec jumpsuits before being allowed to fly.
This just makes it harder for many to give up cars for transportation.
not_going_to_post:
"... The first time homebuyer tax credit and FHA lending to anything with a pulse has easily had a 50k boost in asking prices over a year ago. What would have been a 200k property last year is a 260-270k property now. Seems like gravity has been suspended. Almost the entire low end is flipped properties. ..."
Same story here in The OC. The government programs (FHA loans, first time buyers credit, ...) are enriching the flippers. Court sales are cash only so there is little competition. The properties are flipped in weeks to FHA buyers who are buying with essentially nothing down, so prices are excessive. In the end this is a transfer of Federal money to the flippers. The real kicker is that a majority of the flippers are former subprime brokers.
curious wrote:
On the upside there was fraud overstating values of homes for profit. On the downside, I wouldn't be surprised at fraud understating values. It seems all you need is someone with money or credit, and conspirators who are either appraisers, loan servicers, or both. Give it 18-24 months before we start to get the news stories and convictions. The bank sells in bulk without the market seeing any prices. That could be a bank favorite. If you sell a big portfolio, does that avoid messing with the comps (because the prices of individual homes isn't known?