Stop bullshitten.

GDP means general depressionary prospects, right?

CalculatedRisk wrote:

I still think a depression is very unlikely

my fingers took over my mind: I intended to say general deflationary prospects, but whatever. The GDP measures are flakey, not very representative, and probably manipulated.

I think their is a very real prospect of double-digit employment in a majority of the states all through 2010.

Holiday spending results will be an interesting barometer, although I wonder if those numbers can be trusted anymore.

I understand one of the things the IMF tells countries in distress or seeking to grow is that they must have reliable, beliveable economic statistics. I sense, but have no evidence, that that portion of the US public that follows gov't economic reports (and trade associations) are no longer trusted because rosey outlook (the sister of rosey scenario) is need for confidence, which has become a goal in itself that is probably manipulated.

REBear wrote:

OK. When is the recession?

I think that depends on the church attended. Usually after the final blessing, with choir singing and organ playing something churchy and optimistic. Think: A Mighty Fortress is our....

So bottom line is more money to assist cooked numbers to create a head fake to fool the public for votes.

So... will this next downturn be defined as a new recession or the continuation of the current recession ?
~splat

CalculatedRisk wrote:

I expect another stimulus package aimed at jobs in the next few months - double digit unemployment is just too much for politicians (it runs counter to their key objective - getting re-elected!)

I doubt any Republican Senator will support a Obama initiative making a new stimulus unlikely. Gridlock will be the most used term in DC.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

So bottom line is more money to assist cooked numbers to create a head fake to fool the public for votes.

Stimulus v2.00 just dump another few hundred billion into govt. schemes !
~splat

CR acknowledging downside risk for 2010. becoming a little less bullish are we?

has mp posted an analysis of the zero hedge fixed income numbers yet?

CalculatedRisk wrote:

Ha! I receive emails all the time asking why I'm so bearish!

There's gotta be a large, hairy and with pointed teeth joke in there somewhere
~splat

We are all right till we are wrong. I would love to be wrong but I think this thing is going to be long and brutal.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.

I'm not sure there are any safe havens in 2010. If the dollar has another major bull run due to sovereign debt concerns, all ships will sink. Bernanke has given us the rising interest rate tell, so bonds are likely to sink.

I stand by my call, short term bullish, long term bearish. Free money works, it really does. In the long term, it doesn't solve our problems; too much debt and an unsustainable welfare state. Greece and CA are the canaries in the coalmine. But that doesn't mean 2010 won't see a continued equity rally.

REBear wrote:

Mel wrote:

doubt any Republican Senator will support a Obama initiative making a new stimulus unlikely.

I do expect extension of the UE benefits thru 2010 if UE rate stays ~10%; don't you?

CR,
I looked at the article by Dr. Zandi of Moody's. Link - The Impact of the Recovery Act on Economic Growth
The GDP Growth Rate is defined as the increase of GDP Quarter over Quarter, adjusted seasonally and presented in an annualized format. If that is the case, based on Table 2 on Page 3, the Q-over-Q contributions of the stimulation in the 1st 3 quarters of 2009 are as follows - (To calculate the Growth Rate, I have used $14.4 T in 2008 from wikipedia)
Q1 2009 over Q4 2008 : $ 9.8B
Q2 2009 over Q1 2009 : $ 75.7 B (=85.5 - 9.8)
Q3 2009 over Q2 2009 : $ -4.9B (=80.6-85.5)

So the Annualized growth rate contributions from the stimulus should be :
Q1 2009: 0.27%
Q2 2009: 2.12%
Q3 2009: -0.14%

It looks like Dr. Zandi has just used the nominal stimulus numbers and used them to calculate the growth instead of using the differential of Q-Q changes in the stimulus to measure the GDP growth.

I don't have ready numbers for the other quarters but I will dig up and see. This seems to be too basic an error. Does this make sense?

Read all about:

A Master of Disaster

"
Of all the architects of last year's financial crash, John Dugan remains the most obscure, despite his stature as one of the most influential. While regulatory errors have made Larry Summers, Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan household names, most people have never heard either of Dugan or his agency, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. But as the chief regulator for the largest US banks, Dugan and his staff are one of the most powerful engines of economic policy in the world.
"

"The time has come for change," Dugan wrote in the Green Book. "Laws must be adapted to permit banks to reclaim the profit opportunities they have lost to changing markets. Where banking organizations have natural expertise in other lines of business, they should be allowed to provide it.... Adapting to market innovation is critical."

When a recession lasts this long the U-3 becomes at best misleading. Talk to me when we get two quarters of increasing EMRatio. It's just plain silly to have more people unemployed every month and see the ticks down in U-3 as anything other than data artifacts.

I guess retailers are cutting prices to help the inventory contribution to GDP
/snark off

Dec. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retailers extended discounts on computers, toys and clothes beyond Christmas to lure consumers who held out for lower prices and have gift cards to redeem.
...
The Washington-based National Retail Federation was holding to its forecast for a 1 percent drop in holiday sales, Ellen Davis, a spokeswoman, said Dec. 20. The International Council of Shopping Centers reiterated on Dec. 22 its forecast for a 2 percent increase in sales at stores open at least a year in December, after reporting that the storm slowed growth to 0.4 percent year over year in the week ended Dec. 19.
...
Sales fell 13 percent to $6.9 billion on the last Saturday before Christmas from the previous year, according to Chicago- based researcher ShopperTrak RCT Corp. A year ago, that was the second-biggest shopping day after Black Friday, the day after U.S. Thanksgiving.
“Shoppers have been savvier than ever when it comes to price and promotion this holiday season,” Retail Eye’s Walters and Shah wrote. “Promotions have still been needed to get shoppers in.”

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

25 million Americans lost their livelihood this year, some managed to find new employment, but many didn't.

JD - that does look like a very high number. Non-farm payroll shows losses of about 7 Mil jobs, probably 8 Mil after the upcoming revisions - but not 25 Mil!. Or you were referring not to job losses?

Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission: "It is hard to say where you should begin"

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The chief executive officers of JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Morgan Stanley will headline the inaugural hearing of a congressional panel investigating Wall Street’s financial crisis.
...
“It hard to say where you should begin,” said commission Vice President Bill Thomas, who also spoke on the phone interview. The January hearing “was appropriate to set the tone and direction,” Thomas said.
Banking industry testimony will be followed by analysis from academics and others over the course of the two-day hearing, Thomas said.
...
“We’ll be calling private- and public-sector folks who over the course of the last two years have been involved in the center of this crisis,” Angelides said of future hearings.

Some people who filed for unemployment found jobs after 1-2 weeks. I know a few.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

460,000+ initial unemployment claims a week, week in, week out, without fail.

You always have initial unemployment claims, in recessions and expansions, so it does not really tell you much without further analysis.
Non-farm payroll changes is a better measure, IMO.
Another option would be to look at the employment figures from the Household survey instead of the Establishment survey.
Here are the results, non-seasonally adjusted to keep it clean:
Nov-2007 - 147,118K
Nov-2008 - 144,609K
Nov-2009 - 139,132K
As I said, the number is 7-8 Mil

"As I said, the number is 7-8 Mil "

......and where are the 1099 workers you've reported?

.....gimme a break.......

Sorry, can't buy into the idea that 2/3rds of those that seek initial unemployment claims, find work reasonably soon.

Black Star Ranch wrote:

and the old guys that fall under discouraged?

I was not talking about the unemployment rate, so "discouraged" has nothing to do with it

The statement was: "Almost 25 million Americans lost their livelihood this year"

......the reported job losses and unemployment figures are just the ice above water. Unreported have been the US workers not covered by any figures, the self-employed - the 1099 workers. Most of whom, are now not doing what they did to "put food on the table" when this fiasco started - their "livelihood". How many of the typical 50-60 year olds who don't stand another chance of working again, appear? I never agree with JD, but THIS time, he's pretty much on the money. But then I'm just a gardener - show me where I'm wrong.

So, by using unemployment data to extrapolate job losses, there are 3 million jobs lost per year, even in the best of years?

Black Star Ranch wrote:

Most of whom, are now not doing what they did to "put food on the table" when this fiasco started - their "livelihood".

I would agree with the statement that 25 million Americans have been affected by this crisis, but "lost their livelihood" feels too much over the board.
It is a very deep and long recession, but a depression it is not. Moreover, compared to most places in the world even this recession feels like a hiccup after a nice, if excessive, dinner.

From muni bond land, NY and PR piling the offers on, bid side "thin", says bloomie. Wonder if the Illinois budget team is having a relaxing vaction?

N.Y., Puerto Rico Push Muni Bond Sales Above Average This Week - Bloomberg.com

And anyone notice that now no less than 3 PR banks are in the Unofficial Problem Banks List top ten by asset size? From a quick scan, the most recent PCA deadline expires Jan 10. Give it a couple of weeks to arrange the papers, make some calls, and the FDIC team could be getting midwinter in the Caribbean.

C

CR "running out". Of numbers? OMG. First the blue chart paint, now numbers?

This really is serious.

C

SNAFU wrote:

No--If Obama said it was a sunny day, Republicans would run to buy umbrellas--FOXNEWS would show it raining somewhere in America. Lieberman will hold out for something outlandish.

Smile You may be right, although this last extension had good support all around. 10% is the magic number, so the O gang will try very hard to spin that number down to single digits asap, definitely before 11,2010.

Republicans are going to spend all of next year touting their negativism--it would be hard for them to reverse directions. Since a terrible economy is seen as good for the party out of power, they will smugly filibuster. Nelson and Lieberman will hold out again--and be joined by at least Bayh.

Counterpointer wrote:

CR "running out". Of numbers? OMG. First the blue chart paint, now numbers?
This really is serious.

I'm getting concerned that maybe the blue paint was used as aus jus at the last White House roast beef soirée.

I don't think this is a "depression" yet. It's about 1934. Now is the "nut". Watch the numbers of small businesses going belly-up. You also won't see this in MSM, it won't be reported by the FedGov until 2020, but you'll notice within your town.

An example.....Bobcat Corp., long a US company, was sold to South Korea in about 2005. With assurances of "long live the King", 4-years later they are closing down their Bismarck, SD plant - 500 or so 50-year olds will be out of work - with no more chance of employment. They will receive sep pay - will not be "officially unemployed " for a while.

Ever take a look at other "on the ground" sources? CLOSED OUR RESTAURANT,SELLING ALL ........,WANT TO SELL ALL FOR ONE MONEY OR TRADE FOR CAR OR TRUCK (to leave town)....Craigslist Adv.

All I'm saying is, I tend to think the "bad numbers and facts" will be understated - as is normal from any governmental entity or shill trying to promote confidence. 2010 and changes in inventory? ....... Current to zero and turn out the lights for many.

Whew! Sorry, it's my inner sociolinguist, ever hiding out back with the reptile brain hatching plots. And hollering at the first sign of a floating referent.

Back to it then.

C

Nuke wrote:

Black Star:

If it is gonna be a depression, we are only at 1930 or so. You know, after the first round of stimulus, when things really started looking up.

In 1930 we were big time exporters and most Americans lived in rural areas--could more easily get food. Now we're in hock and urbanized--our pols are dysfunctional and Wall Street is part of the problem, not part of any solution. Last year we talked about mad max scenarios--hungry people don't go down without a fight. I'm trying to talk my wife into moving to OZ--I'm scared.

GDP = Godzilla's Dung Pile 

"Yukio Hatoyama, the new Japanese Prime Minister, has stunned a nation already mired in huge public debt by unveiling the country’s biggest ever postwar budget: a 92.3 trillion yen (£630 billion) spending spree aimed at “saving people’s lives”.

"Of foremost concern, analysts for Nomura said, is that Japanese tax revenues are expected to fall to Y37.40 trillion this year, the lowest that they have been since 1984. It was, analysts said, a watershed moment — the first time that new debt issuance has exceeded tax revenues since the Second World War."

"The budget plan will contain Y53.4 trillion in policy spending; 51 per cent of that will go to social security programmes. This is the first time that social security has received more than half of policy spending, reflecting the new Government’s focus on jump-starting consumption rather than the big public works projects carried out by former administrations."

...and they have critical elections next summer.

MrM......Understood..........Give it time.....we'll talk in another year.