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Geez. Where's their Christmas spirit?
I demand interest on my USDs loaned to the USG! Real interest!
/elderly saver
And here I thought they were going to raise the FFR to 5%.
Well, so far, they've displayed a real interest in shoveling them to the TBTF banks, in exchange for MBS valued at between "below par" and "worthless".
Does that count?
@ghostface: What does the highlighted line mean to you? Will they really buy more than the currently allotted $1.25 trillion? Or will they slow to a trickle and let the rates ramp up market clearing levels?
To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.</>
Spare change, Mister?
Thread music...
Brother can you spare a dime?
When will Mastercard adopt this low rate for my credit card account?
Nothing but the best for those guys.
Note the Fed recognized that housing is not as strong. Last month they noted: "Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months", now they are saying "some signs of improvement".
The Fed is also making it clear they intend to stick to their deadlines.
best to all
FOMC:
They aren't Federal.
They certainly aren't open.
Market? Don't make me laugh.
The anticipated expiration dates for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30, 2010, for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31, 2010, for loans backed by all other types of collateral.
I either don't see that really happening, or I see another sharp fall in prices + higher interest.
Ben - Asset Manager with $ 2.5TRILLION of shit, under management.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
"as of yet"
The Fed is also making it clear they intend to stick to their deadlines.
Just like millions intended to pay their Option ARMs! No freaking chance they're going to stop buying MBS.
Never give chemotherapy to a cancer patient.
When they get nauseous they'll simply go out and find a doctor that will give them pain killers instead.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Agree on your first point but I'm not clear on your second. Isn't this language unchanged from last meeting? They still seem to be hedging their bets by linking future purchases to the "evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets." If anything, their acknowledgment that housing has weakened a bit would seem to slightly increase the chance they won't halt MBS purchases, in the absence of any other change to the wording.
As soon as the Fed puts its foot on the firehose, choking off the liquidity pump, it's going to have to take marks on its own book, just like C.
Are they still saying they're going to stop buying MBS in February? PLEASE.
Brother can you spare a dime?
ANCIENT MUSIC
I saw the end of what was once
A silver building to the sun,
Standing yet but derelict,
The upper storeys were undone
Lumbered beams and dirty stairwells,
Dust and wreckage at the top,
Livid light, abandoned rooms
All the finishings corrupt
Through the observation windows
Crumpled buildings and the streets,
Haunted flowing apparitions,
Memories that stung as sleet
I remember how they straddled,
Braced the I-beams, rivets hot,
Ships and bridges in the distance,
Who would think that steel could rot?
Generation isolated,
Island in the sea of time,
Can you hear the ancient music?
Brother can you spare a dime
Pavel
December 14, 2009
Edgar Poe, I think the Fed will meet their deadlines. Q4 GDP is going to be solid, and unless the economy falls off a cliff in Q1, the Fed will try to stop the MBS purchases on time.
It will be interesting
best wishes
Anecdotal:
A DC cabdriver in a phone conversation, overheard a few hours ago:
It's been dead out here. This is the best day I've had in eight days.
I wish I had a job that required me only to change a couple words in a 1 page document every 6 weeks... and the ability to print money.
Yalt, they added that last paragraph making it clear all the deadlines for various facilities. I take that is emphasizing the deadlines.
best wishes
The A-BCPMMMFLL, the CPFL, the PDCF, The TSLF are all to end February 1st! EGADS
Then the Agency purchases are to be completed Q110~! Holy mother of yikes!
We can't survive with out this support!
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I disagree. If they intended to stick to their orderly exit they wouldn't feel the need to say anything. IndyMac with more zeros.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
You think they will feel pressure wrt employment [or rather UE]? I agree GDP will be fine - headline number anyway. Job growth not so much.
bearly wrote:
HA! Good one...
Standing Pat.......the shock I tell you.
The Fed is the MBS market (along with the rest of it).....they will never stop...ever....they can't.
Ciao
MS
So will they put the acronymists back to work, with overtime?
Yup it sure is......
December 16 , 2009
Colorado State University - 10
Portland Schools - 7
WongDoody - Around 6
Hoffman Estates Police Officers - 4
Ottawa-area Hospitals Facing Major Budget Cuts Which Could Mean Job Cuts
Hennepin County Medical Center - up to 200
Florida State Jobs Shrink as Recession Continues
City of Reno - More Budget Cuts = Possible Layoffs
December 15 , 2009
Pinconning Area Schools - 4
Utica Community Schools - Approve 43 Layoffs
Mariemont Council - 3
City Grand Rapids - 22 Firefighters
Update: Port Huron Area School District - 8
The Battle Creek Public Schools - Possibly 40 Layoffs
Philippine National Construction Corporation ( International ) - 1,000
Update: ArcelorMittal ( International ) - 10,000
San Diego - 200 Layoffs
Update: Minneapolis Officers - 41 At End of Year
"it's going to have to take marks on its own book, just like C. "
Unless I'm mistaken by law the FED is not allowed to take a loss on it's holdings. They won't be the one taking the losses, someone else will. A lot of someone elses.
Edgar Poe wrote:
Boy will that be interesting! Watch mortgage rates spike and a serious home price deflation...
Can the bankers make enough lending at higher interest rates on new mortgages to make up for the losses in strategic defaults? So, the toxic crap sitting in the TALF - as long as it's there, do the banks have to re-value it (as it slowly decays into a puddle of goo), or can they just pretend and use the swapped t-bills to continue to meet regulatory capitalization requirements?
If that's the case, the Fed can hold that junk for years and let the banks slowly claw their way back, only taking the losses (swapping tbills back for the junk) as they are able to...anyone want to guess if that's how we'll be playing extend and pretend?
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Understood, CR. I'm still skeptical about the halting of MBS purchases but the deadlines for the facilities are just as important if not more so, and you're right that they were pretty firm on that point.
RATM wrote:
I don't think I'd want to do what it takes to get it. Smoking that much
dick tends to make one's hair fall out...
The Fed is the MBS market (along with the rest of it).....they will never stop...ever....they can't.
Ciao
MS
They will stop, but it won't be by choice.
Rob Dawg wrote:
But you don't deny that they are a committee, right?
your cartoonist buddy needs to draw a FED Cow with it's udder's being sucked on by the Big Fin's with expriation dates on the udders.
Then the BIg Fin's will be BUg eyed staring at the date! should get the point across!
Comrade Scott wrote:
CRs calculation was that the purchases were changing the spread by 30-50 bp. If that's right (or even in the ballpark) then the Fed and its minions don't believe a huge spike will happen.
And if it's not right...
Edit: "Calculation" is the wrong word. Substitute "graphical observation".
"@ghostface: What does the highlighted line mean to you? "
The Fed will be buying MBS well into 2011, don't let their fancy words fool you.
Comrade Scott wrote:
Works for me. Who said you can't make toxic waste disappear? In 10 or 15 years it'll all just be a vague memory.
YouTube - The Dark Bailout
bond market is saying "bullpucky" to Ben and boys
McCain is endorsing Volker as next Fed chairman.
One can dream.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Target-Date "Lifestyle" Retirement Funds Take Huge Risks In Junk Bonds
Does anybody else think this might be a problem?
Improving? Nyet.
Taking a break from a precipitous fall? Sure I'll buy that.
Taking the snark off, you can't be projecting 10%+ UE for the next year to two years and claim the job situation is improving. We can't even claim the deterioration is ending.
MS, I think they are signaling hard that they intend to meet these deadlines. I understand the argument that if they stop that mortgage rates will increase - and that will have a negative impact on housing and the economy. Sure ... but they think the economy will be self sustaining next year.
best wishes
JP wrote:
I agree: that's not much of a spread, but then others assert the the "Fed is the entire MBS market" (see MS above for the most recent, but ISTR that a couple of other bond traders have made the same assertion). Bond Girl, you out there?
"The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets"
Doesn't sound like sticking to their deadlines to me, sounds like wiggle room language.
Fed operator does not carry change.
Blackhalo wrote:
haha, i'll take your word for it.
They will stop, but it won't be by choice.
A Sybilline prophecy if there ever was one.
April 1, 2010 - the stock market's first day without a new supply of federally supplied crack. Going clean won't be pretty.
One way to tell if the lenders think the Fed will stop buying MBSs, rates will go up starting at the end of rJan, as you can now get 60 day rate locks. Or they will no longer offer rate locks longer than 30 days by the end of Feb and shorten the time line going forward.
Bond market speaks. heheh sorry Benny boy.
Yay for Merkley
I'd like to think my strongly worded emails re Bernanke made a difference.
"No Change": citigroup gets huge new 38 billion bailout wiping out all of taxpayer's "profits": Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
ZIRP: Thelma and Louise had their foot to the floor too. They weren't able to jump the canyon.
Comrade Scott. the Fed IS the entire market - but that is simply because they are willing to pay a (edit) higher price than everyone else. There is a market for MBS without the Fed - and as you noted my guess is in that 30 to 50 bps range.
It is just a matter of price.
best wishes
josap wrote:
Is that a derivative?
In 10 or 15 years it'll all just be a vague memory.
The Copenhagen Conference has failed, according to its president, who has just resigned. So in 10 or 15 years there are likely to be other worries.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
But it only applies to securities purchases--i.e., the treasury/agency/MBS POMOs. They didn't leave themselves the same wiggle room where the various alphabet-soup lending programs are concerned.
Liquiditus interruptus?
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I do not think so. This Fed, with its institutional blindness towards asset bubbles, is once again taking bubble growth for real economic growth.
As an early indicator of what happens when supports get taken away, look no further than C.
AC-
It may slow down to a trickle but it will never stop....they have to support themselves..gotta have some perceived value when the time comes to have those losses flow through to us.
CR-
It's neatly summed up by ghost above. I think sometimes you get lost in perception vs. reality but we all do at times. They can't be seen as being on one side of the fence so of course they put out language that supports it's prior goals. They also say they are not monetizing debt but yet we still have the primary dealers exchanging T-Notes for straight cash.......
On a side note......looking at SPY options (expiry. Friday) on the call side and I still see about 30% of fluff in them...strike at 111...two days before they melt away....ridiculous.
Ciao
MS
Sure ... but they think the economy will be self sustaining next year.
When has the economy been self-sustaining since the 1960s?
MBS support and the extended housing tax credit both expiring at about the same time - that's a fairly big gamble on a self-sustaining housing recovery this spring. Good luck with that.
dryfly, energyecon and SNAFU - my replies to your posts/questions are in the pigged thread.
Bedtime for me.
FOMC In English 12/16 - The Market Ticker
Karl's take on the FOMC minutes; humorous .GIF at the end, as well as some insights in the middle-
AC-
It may slow down to a trickle but it will never stop....they have to support themselves..gotta have some perceived value when the time comes to have those losses flow through to us.
If they cause the sovereign debt market to meltdown there will be no "them" to support.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent
Oh, Thank Goodness!
I was so afraid Citicards would be forced to raise my 29.99% rate.
(Just kidding. Being a valued customer of 20 years with a great credit score who has always paid on time and never been late on any bill in my entire life, my rate is only 19.99%. Currently.)
Cinco-X wrote:
We discussed this at the last Trilateral luncheon. As long as they don't try to use "commission" we and La Cosa Nostra are fine with whatever they call themselves. As usual JFK and Elvis got into a fight over who got to ride in the front seat of the black helicopter.
Seriously, they have got to work double time between now and March cementing a perception of recovery. They cannot risk their power being diluted by Congress and the only way to do that is by appearance of success.
ac-
it already did...it just hasn't been allowed to have any meaningful consequence...yet.
Ciao
MS
Tomorrow, tomorrow Things will be better. Goodwill announced today they will be opening the 21,000 square foot building that was going to house Office Depot.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Naaa. Won't be that short. But, there's no need to worry about it. The people that are pessimistic about this problem will "decide" to have less children, this will lower the population pressure. Conversely, the people who are optimistic about the future will have more kids, this will increase the proportion of optimists to pessimists. As the oceans rise, the optimists will see opportunity and be happy (the pessimists will be hunkering down in non-reproductive doom). Eventually, the world will consist of wildly optimistic people cheerfully migrating away from the rising tides (which lift all boats).
If I'm right about this we might see some selling off in those securities being supported by the alphabet soup--ABS, commercial paper, non-agency MBS. There's some hint of that the last 15 minutes or so (look at CMO and VNO, or some of the insurers who are holding this stuff) but it's not exactly dramatic--they're still mostly up on the day even if they're down since the announcement.
Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:
No, when you get a loan acceptance from a lender you can lock in the interest rate at that days mark. Not doing so means the rate could go up (or down) and be something different on the day you close escrow. Most lenders will let you lock the interest rate while in escrow for a stated time frame. If you think rates are going up, you lock.
If it is a variable rate card, it's only a matter of time before it goes up.
I don't know if this is a "trade-able" idea or not, but here's a thought: If it's widely expected that mortgage rates are going to bump up by at least 35bp (more?) when the Federal Government's "artificial" support goes away, wouldn't that have the effect of bringing more buyers into the market to lock-in mortgages at the still-low rates? Especially since it's expected to occur near the sweet-spot of the 2010 home-buying season?
Sebastian
4:15:15:13!
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I would also say it's a matter of due diligence....
ac wrote:
Well, self-sustaining with the usual amount of deficit spending, of course. Spent on "appropriate" items that help "build Merican greatness".
And would you blame them?
If I were a mortgage lender, I'd give serious thought to taking the month of March off - or at least refusing to offer rate locks at all. Exposing one's entire loan pipeline to a completely unknown level of interest-rate risk in the immediate future seems to me to be the classic case of "nickels in front of steamrollers".
Rob Dawg wrote:
Do you think anytime after March will be too late to affect the mid-terms? Just curious?
How many mortgages are actually moved on a quarter to half point? I'm sure the answer is more than zero, but it can't have that much of an impact. My impression was that the floor was put in to basically guarentee profits for the banks in new underwriting.
Congrats for the Time cover...
YouTube - Elton John - Bennie and the Jets (Live in Edinburgh, 1976)
Or it might have the effect of encouraging sellers to get their properties on the market now, while there's still financing available and they have a chance to get a deal done, instead of waiting for next summer's sweet spot.
Isn't it the wholesaler that offers the interest lock and the retailer just passes it on?
"If it's widely expected that mortgage rates are going to bump up by at least 35bp (more?) when the Federal Government's "artificial" support goes away, wouldn't that have the effect of bringing more buyers into the market to lock-in mortgages at the still-low rates?"
No. Look at the response of the MBA refi index to the latest dip in rates, pitiful. Those who can refi have, we would need street rates below 4.5% to see any meaningful refi activity.
Looks like
might be losing his legs.
Swim!!!
I'm not sure I'd wait until March. The Fed's also announced, and so far has implemented, a gradual slowdown in purchases leading up to the cutoff. So far that's been masked by a drop in overall activity so that their market share has increased even though their volume is down, but it's risky to assume that will continue.
""If it's widely expected that mortgage rates are going to bump up by at least 35bp (more?) when the Federal Government's "artificial" support goes away, wouldn't that have the effect of bringing more buyers into the market to lock-in mortgages at the still-low rates?"
I really believe that the market would have priced that already....after-all we're talking about a relatively small scale of time. If it was going to move that much in one quarter...we would have seen signs of it already.
Ciao
MS
Seb's not asking about refis, he's talking about purchase activity.
HG
4:20 yet?
I think the Fed sticks to the announced deadlines.
All I heard was "Blah, blah, blah, 0%, blah, blah, blah, just like Japan, blah, blah, lost decade."
On an unrelated note, I've spent a lot of time below the pig lately.
RATM wrote:
It's not that easy. You also need an acronym generator.
Angry Saver wrote:
I agree - not because they have balls, but because they are fools. They foolishly believe in the recovery (bubble) they have recreated.
GS, C, WFC are going to kick themselves when they see how much money the Fed makes on those MBS. It's gonna be great!
Sebastian wrote:
You mean pulling in additional people that will decide to "buy now (then)" before rates rise permanently? I guess it could happen. But, it seems like they've pulled so many people forward with the 8k rebate, tho, that a potential increase in rates (which TPTB will try to spin away, anyway) will probably not be noticed by the teaming-masses.
shill<
Not for me.
I have a honey do list that has to be taken care of...
Plus I'm still trying to finish off the last of this Bass keg.
:vaporizer:
Sebastian wrote:
LOL. Seriously, it sounds like you just arrived here, tranported from some other era. Maybe the '60s, Beaver ? Sheesh.
Dead Shtick wrote:
Ask Volker about that!
Mmm I too have one of those, but lately I have been much to busy...
ghostfaceinvestah said: "No. Look at the response of the MBA refi index to the latest dip in rates, pitiful. Those who can refi have, we would need street rates below 4.5% to see any meaningful refi activity."
Not being afraid of "missing out" when rates are low and there's no immediate prospect for them to go higher at a weak time of the year for home sales isn't the same as being afraid of "missing out" when the threat of higher rates is imminent during an active time for home sales.
Sebastian
Angry Saver wrote:
No. Wall St won't let them. Wall St will engineer a panic, and the Fed will crumble like a Graham cracker.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
...unless they're beaten over the head with it. I'm guessing the NAR already has a "FED TO STOP SUPPORTING THE MORTGAGE MARKET IN APRIL; BUY NOW WHILE RATES ARE LOW!" ad in the pipeline.
Deep down I think they (fed) know it's game over....but they will never admit it. Doing so would basically render them wrong for the last 40 years. I would dearly love to be optimistic about the current bubble (because that is all it is) I think the disconnect in crafting Fed Polices is that they think that blowing bubble's perpetually is actually going to continue to work-but that also depends on the perspective you have too.
Ciao
MS
MrBeach wrote:
The final episode might be coming. Tune in (I know, dated) to see if Ben saves the world - or will he kick-the-can into the next season.
MS wrote:
Would you mind elaborating? The Dec 111's are offered @ $.87 w/stock at 111.43. Are you suggesting they should be trading at $.60 or @ $.20 over parity with another 2 days to go?
I've had this nagging feeling lately that I need to scrub my Eyes with Comet and Brillo pads.
Must be reading to many sebastian posts.
Cinco-X wrote:
No opinion yet. March might find Congress looking to look tough and that was my point.
If mortgage rates continue to gap as so many here expect we might see a new mechanism develop for private placement mortgages. Seniors selling their homes on terms with some form of insurance protection.
Purchases have a very limited response to mortgage rates.
Ironically the thing I think will drive more existing homes sales is more supply - of REOs. People love getting a bargain, so once the REO inventory picks up, sales will pick up.
"...unless they're beaten over the head with it. I'm guessing the NAR already has a "FED TO STOP SUPPORTING THE MORTGAGE MARKET IN APRIL; BUY NOW WHILE RATES ARE LOW!" ad in the pipeline."
They've been saying something like that for the last 6 months.
NAR should just have a permanent campaign "Now is the time to buy, sell, rent, repo, flip, foreclose, stay, not stay"
That way they cover all their bases and are never wrong.
Mook wrote:
There have been times when you could not lock a rate, usually a lender will charge for the lock to get a few extra bucks. Lenders also figure origination points as a way to make up for rate hikes. If points are now at 1, they may rise to 2 or 3.
I see this slightly difference then others here. It looks like two bullies playing chiken from here.
I see this as admin giving the banks the finger by saying dump your inventory now while you have a chance to unload it. This means either selling into the FTHB and MSB purchase backstops which has bumped up prices or try selling next year after all the gov sponsorship ends. What the banks do is the real question.
mike-
some of it has come out since I posted that......I certainly don't think they should be trading at much of a premium in any case....5 may be 10 % tops.
Ciao
MS
FOMC Statement: No Change
Yes it is called 'nuclear winter' and therefore takes lots of time to change.
bearly wrote:
We're getting closer and closer to the end game. Dollar? Bond market? Stock market? Gold? The Fed can't keep them all under control forever without deep structural economic change.
Sebastian wrote:
Only if "more buyers" means "people that would have bought soon anyway". As usual, a known event simply pulls forward (or pushes back) the buying cycle in time.
Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:
He might be right... A bubble is just optimism. Optimism is contagious. If the peasants just relax a bit, who knows what fantasy could get started. That's a doomers biggest fear.
In response to my: ""If it's widely expected that mortgage rates are going to bump up by at least 35bp (more?) when the Federal Government's "artificial" support goes away, wouldn't that have the effect of bringing more buyers into the market to lock-in mortgages at the still-low rates?"
MS said: "I really believe that the market would have priced that already....after-all we're talking about a relatively small scale of time. If it was going to move that much in one quarter...we would have seen signs of it already."
So that means that the expected crash in mortgage-related securities when the government's support goes away is also priced-in already.
This is good news.
Sebastian
CalculatedRisk wrote:
This is why they should stop buying, at least long enough to sort out how much or a market there is and at what price.
I would expect them too need to start buying again shortly after that.
badger wrote:
yes. retailers aren't who I think of as lenders. Retailers are sales people.
MS wrote:
Nahh. They'll always argue that enough wasn't done. Krugman has been shouting this for a while.
Cinco-X wrote:
Nah, there's lots of sovereign debt in fine shape right now.
Hey RD I see Oxnard is rated the top CA city for business. (#62 in the nation)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/list-of-marketwatchs-best-cities-for-business-09-2009-12-16?dist=bigcharts
Seb-
Ah....no. It's never going away...sort of the point.
Ciao
MS
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
The official street lingo is "spange" (at least in the SF/Portland corridor)
There's a forward market in MBS (actually that is the main market, secondary trading has no direct bearing on setting mortgage rates today), so it is pretty easy to set lock rates based on the market.
Big unknown is what will be the market reaction. My guess is it will be fairly stable until it really sinks in that the Fed won't buy anymore MBS, at which point it will explode, and the Fed will step back in.
Quick economics quiz:
Which is the better purchase?
A. $200k home with a $160k mortgage fixed 5%
B. $150k home with a $110k mortgage fixed 9%
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Do you have an opinion about what "it will explode" looks like? Sudden (and unexpected! of course) rise in rates? or something else?
I'll go with B.
Trick question. The answer is to keep renting.
"So that means that the expected crash in mortgage-related securities when the government's support goes away is also priced-in already."
That happens in 30 seconds when the market realizes the FED support is actually stopping. Very different from how end-consumers react.
The one on the North Shore of Oahu?
b
Sometimes this board scares me: I typed that Hanukkah post last thread before reading the ones asking who likes bacon...
Wall St will engineer a panic, and the Fed will crumble like a Graham cracker.
I think that's how they got to Obama:
"Do what we ask or we'll pull the financial kill switch and the unwashed masses will blame the carnage on you because they believe everything Cramer tells them! RAHAHAHAHA!"
Anyone that has worked on building control systems knows that all systems can exhibit chaotic behavior as you add gain, power and reduce friction. Minor signals have tendencies to get magnified.
The Fed has now increased gain (leverage) in the system with ZIRP and trash-for-cash at the discount window. It has added power by printing and buying trillions in securities.
The dynamic system that they are cavalierly manipulating in real time is going to get chaotically out of balance again.
While they scratch their heads and ponder, the system will oscillate and flip in completely unexpected way.
Increasing friction (cost of transactions) and decreasing leverage are the solution to control. Sad, that Bernanke et al were never forced to build real engineered systems before.
Without my calculator, I have no clue.
ac wrote:
That would work on me too. What does O, or me, know about this stuff. It's VERY complex and only VERY smart people can figure it out. You can see it watching the senate hearings. The Senators are all old scumbags (they couldn't be there if they weren't) but they know the financial scum are their equals, this throws them off.
(The same game we play in IT).
C none of the above
I think the Fed sticks to the announced deadlines.
Any guesses to Hu would make them keep their promise?
Since this spring I've had this vision of Hu in a ref's uniform with a whistle in his mouth watching the shot clock wind down.
Rob Dawg wrote:
C. The one with best "English sounding" housing subdivision name.
(What's the answer, can't you see we're all busy here!? You think it's easy watching servers do server things all day?)
That would work on me too. What does O, or me, know about this stuff. It's VERY complex and only VERY smart people can figure it out. You can see it watching the senate hearings. The Senators are all old scumbags (they couldn't be there if they weren't) but they know the financial scum are their equals, this throws them off.
(The same game we play in IT).
That's the genius of it. Hence "the silent coup" I suppose.
"Any guesses to Hu would make them keep their promise?"
Well they only got a 200b increase in the debt ceiling versus the 1.8T they were initially asking for. Hu knows what's going on behind the scenes?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Okay now the follow up question. Which is easier to sell?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Our IT spends his whole day on Facebook. However, I'm sure we don't have the special doohickies your server has.
I think it's safe to say that most people here (with a few exceptions) know more about what really goes on in the system then most. It takes all of 5 minutes,10 if you can't read fast, to blow a hole in almost all "official" data releases. It seems that people are infatuated with plastic vaginal artwork more than actually understanding and figuring out what the number's truly mean to them.
Ciao
MS
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Oh, gosh no. Ours are VERY complex and take VERY smart people to run them.
Btw, you THINK he's on face book, but he's really doing research on a performance problem.
MS wrote:
You mean inflatable?
B, because property taxes can be a biatch
Sebastian wrote:
Late 90s, I was doing some research on the builder stocks. As you know, they're highly rate-sensitive. What 30 years of historical data showed was that you got that bump after the first rate hike.
I don't know how much you want to trust history in our present circumstances.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Yes, I've noticed some performance problems on Facebook myself lately.
bollinger bands on spx are tighter right now than last 2 years, last time this tight in aug. 08.. big move coming some way in the near future...
It's highly unlikely that the MBS market has already priced in the Fed finishing it's buying program. That would require that a market actually exists, which is no longer the case - investment banks, hedge funds, investment funds have all basically gutted their mortgage trading operations. When (if) the Fed pulls back, there is no market infrastructure to resume trading, so I'd expect an overshoot of statistical normalization. Add that to the fact that there will now be a higher yielding product, with essentially the same implicit federal backing, competing with the monster treasury auctions, and I think you're looking at more like a rapid 75-100 bps backup in mortgages. That should be enough to give pause to the "housing recovery."
re: TARP repayment
Banks:
Government:
re: Fed’s MBS purchases
Assuming there is nothing to worry about in the world, like something that might hike the USD in January, or at any level of government below national, or when auto sales going sideways is confirmed, or when mystics will accept there is no inventory led recovery, or if the market hasn’t priced in the terrible January data... well the Fed isn’t stupid. At worst they will slow down purchases before March and see what actually happens. They will have no problem extending purchases through Oct 2009 if they both care about new mortgage issuance and are concerned about whatever raise they estimate from a real world experiment.
credit-
Just thinking that (not the technical aspect of it though) seeing that the market can't just tread here.....gotta move it one way or the other or the rental equity crowd is going to bail soon.
Ciao
MS
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Yeah this is freaking me out, but it sure looks like an expanding wedge, doesn't it?
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:
I think THAT is the most fascinating question. How much "stuff" is responding to old models (beliefs) of performance. Nothing has changed in the day-to-day workings of my Zombie; in terms of who we lend money to, and why. The scoring limits are higher but the culture - and programming - is EXACTLY the same. Large groups of people waiting for things to return to "normal".
It's like watching a rubberband stretch, wait and wait and wait...
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Amazing what a low vol environment will do to a vol based indicator!
...
At least we know the date, so we can buy something nice to wear to the Apocalypse.
wouldn't the rental equalty folks already be leaving the market since higher rates = lower prices = better for all cash deals?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Lol. Around here they name tracts after things they destroy or were never there. Generator Land:
Subdivision Name Generator
Besides, you think you've got it bad? I've had to press the damn button twice already and the markets aren't even closed. That and I had to use a manual extractor after the cork broke off at morning break.
The answer is interesting because you can make the case for either. Or as has been pointed out it may be a trick question. The point being that the absolute market response to even CRs very low estimate of 35-75bps will be a drop in house prices. That will kill any recovery and explains the Feds newfound obsession with the housing sector.
agree with all that EHP - it is impressive how well the Bankers have finessed a graceful exit for themselves individually - for much of the dirty 19, those options backdated to '02 lows are nicely in the money. heckuva job!
CalculatedRisk wrote:
If they stop buying MBS for two months and then pick up buying them again a month later, they will have stuck to their deadlines.
Turbo wrote:
If a 100 bps change kills the housing market, there is no market.
I have no idea which way it will bust but as you note, when it does the volume will be supercharged......
Yeah, how long will it be before the S & P cutting sovereign credit ratings in Europe starts to hit the bond market?
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda said: "Late 90s, I was doing some research on the builder stocks. As you know, they're highly rate-sensitive. What 30 years of historical data showed was that you got that bump after the first rate hike.
I don't know how much you want to trust history in our present circumstances."
Nice contribution.
Okay, I can get with that, the idea that people would have to actually see rates go the way they're "afraid" they will before they act.
As to our present circumstances, I have no illusions that there will be a massive wave of buying, but at least there ought to be some buying support.
Sebastian
Lehman Bankruptcy Judge Approves $50 Million Bonuses (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Lose billions, make millions: the capitalist genius. (Best way to make a small fortune...)
Start pecking...
go bernie go
U.S. Senator Vows to Block Bernanke’s Second Term as Fed Chief - Bloomberg.com
Watching the dollar strengthen.
Why? When the Fed just came out and basically did nothing?
Is the threat of winding down some printing enough to add to rarity value to the nightcrawler?
Rumor has it that Bernanke is considering withdrawing. Prolly a political threat.
Jonathan wrote:
Blame me
WestSac_grrl wrote:
Bernie's just a socialist that hates the honest hardworking bidness leaders of Merica, leaders that repay their loans - unlike those unemployed LOSERS - bidness leaders that made this great and glorious country what it is today.
Commercial real estate news update from New Zealand:
Office vacancy rate set to soar | Stuff.co.nz
*Wellington's commercial office market is set for a severe shock with empty floors predicted to double and rents to drop up to 20 per cent over two years, a new report says.
An additional 21,400 square metres of vacant office space came on to the market in the six months to June, taking the vacancy rate to 8.8 per cent.
That was forecast to rise as high as 18 per cent by March 2012, Darroch consulting and research manager Ian Mitchell said.
Mr Pinson said there was widespread reluctance to drop base rents as it affected landlords' capacity to borrow, so sweeteners such as "rent free" periods were being thrown in to entice tenants.
However, it was inevitable base rents would drop, although it was impossible to know by how much.
The report estimated the extra supply would drive rents down by 15 to 20 per cent. Mr Mitchell said upgrades were needed to retain and attract tenants.
"The challenge will be whether they can access the capital to upgrade that space."
An extra 90,000 square metres of new office space will hit the Wellington market over the next two years...*
Jonathan wrote:
??
euro is flat, dbc and gold are up.
Speed wrote:
He just wants people to try and say aloud: Fed Chairman Larry Summers.
Michael Hudson: The Problem with Paul Samuelson
A reaming of Samuelson and his minions....
WestSac_grrl wrote:
My sentiments also for this Independent senator from Vermont!
2010 inflation investment tip:
short ¢99 stores
If volume surges as the market escalates, the pro's will then bail as they will have finally induced retail investors to jump aboard.
Sanders may not be able to pull it off unless there is some Tiger Dropping, Just saying.
National Inflation Association
Sanders really comes across as something of a populist-pandering chowderhead - where is the senatorial equivalent of Ron Paul, who is right for the right reasons, and speaks English as a first language?
shill wrote:
Better living with hyper-inflation.
HollywoodHack wrote:
Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
I would consider shorting them anyway. They are overly dependent on cheap imports. There ain't a whole lot of domestic sourcing there.
HollywoodHack wrote:
A Senator can't BE a Senator and question the mythologies of TPTB. You'd need representative democracy concept (where the citizens are the ones being represented) for that.
Takeaname wrote:
Chart of confidence that there will NOT be a stock market crash in the succeeding six months:
The International Center for Finance at the Yale School of Management
exactly. I almost choked on my frisbe and endive salad nom nom nom
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists
I think J@s proved that bankers were worse than Nazis and we know that Nazis are worse than terrorists, so by transitivity we know that bankers are worse than terrorists.
The products at dollar stores are generally garbage before they leave the shelves. I expect these businesses to fail because shoppers will recognize they need to spend their limited funds on things that have a decent useful life.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
With UE @ < 10%, I doubt the peasants are going to get too comfortable.. and I have seen little action from TPTB, that might help with that. Well, other than that now everyone will be MANDATED to have overpriced health insurance, with any possible cost containment now, gone. I doubt that is a big win for the peasants, but Big Insurance probably has to contain their glee.
No change? What about the change we can believe in? We need all the change we can get, even the spare change.
I think dollar stores will do well as many of their customers have little money. As Jim the Realtor says "price fixes anything". Where it comes from and the quality is second to having nothing at all.
What about the change we can believe in?
Haha... Obama is reading old GWB speeches word for word now re Afghanistan.
What you miss in quoting unemployment is the phenomenal disparity among sub-groups.
Unemployment is more than 20% for the younger groups, and then levels out to ~5% for the age brackets above. I think it's the 60+ age bracket that even registered employment gains during this recession.
The differences between sexes, education, and race should all be overshadowed by the age difference.
edit: also worth noting that a bubble of unemployment borne by the younger age brackets is a global feature of this recession
wifey , who is itching to buy, asks 'When are you going to be ready?'.
My response: Requirement 1-The federal reserve completely out of the mortgage market. She doesn't really understand (nor does she want to), but I figure with that statement, I can hold her off for a few years if need be.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Better living with hyper-inflation.
Better living through deflation (assuming you still have a job and your wages don't go down). Costlier living through inflation, which may or may not be better, depending on how much money you have.
That doesn't soundbite as well.
pavel.chichikov, thanks for the hot tip. I will invest accordingly. Best wishes to you.
You may be right. I think though that the quality of dollar store product is so low that buying the product is equivalent to getting nothing. People will shift to used goods or go without.
B, because when interest rates jack up 4%, that 200k house will be worth 150k. Plus, you will never get to refi at a meaningfully lower rate for A.
R. Millikan, physicist, urges Assoc. of Life Insurance Presidents to develop insurance for unemployment, sickness, and old age, or these functions would be taken away from them by the government.
News from 1930: Monday, December 15, 1930: Dow 163.34 -5.34 (3.2%)
bzzzt! the idea is to get as much house as possible with as little down, for the inevitable walk away
rosethorn wrote:
Fair trade considering you are giving tthem dollars in exchange.
Rob Dawg wrote:
B; you can always refinance later, but can never renegotiate the price-
Rimshot!!
Yep.
Speed wrote:
Holding out for a signing bonus or more pay?
JP wrote:
The wide-flung network of excellent roads promises the building of more oases until all Florida becomes one great oasis, and then it will be an earthly paradise.
Yup, one great oasis full of people and roads. Hoocoodanode?
This just in. Tiger just left the marina in Fl in his yacht to head for the high seas. Sounds good to me, but with one note of caution. LOOKOUT FOR THE PIRATES!
Uncle Ar wrote:
In addition, you might make out like a bandit, during the next RE bubble in 20-30 years, with B. Of course for J6P, the only question is... "What's my monthly nut?"
ac wrote:
It's almost an insult to terrorists to compare them to bankers.
t r orwell wrote:
How many cocktail waitress does the crew consist of?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Hopefully the Bermuda Triangle is on the itinerary.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Anybody old enough to remember Gary Hart and his yacht trouble?!
Is that like Hart to Hart?
you could be barely over 30 and remember that one - of course
SNAFU wrote:
And the resulting "Guess Jeans" ad?
SNAFU wrote:
Wasn't that just a bunch of Monkey Business?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Heh.. I got "Bent Hen Mesa"
SNAFU wrote:
Monkey Business?
And once again, I find myself below the pig. Hey.. "Below the Pig Park" might work for a sub name.
Indeed!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Donna_Rice_and_Gary_Hart.jpg
Seven Looming Financial Bubbles
One more subdivision name.. "Rolling Beaver Greens"
If ending these things is such a great idea... why wait? End them today. How is the world going to be materially different in a few months?
Management by hope and a prayer to