There is no amount of bad news that the slime in the real estate bussiness cannot try to turn into a positive event.

How do you know if a realitor is lying?

That's what I mean about realitors.
Down 6% from peak in a market that will see over 50% price declines.
To me that is not a good time to buy.

bippin got it:-]

A 6% decline in the median price since the peak - I wonder how far it will go ...

Prices are declining and are very likely to continue to do so for a while. Some people are surprised that in such a situation realtors would suggest buying. But realtors always suggest buying.

I think people here expect too much of realtors. Very few of them are economists or analysts – they are sales people. It comes naturally for them to look for the positive spin.

Of course, those who have been around longer should recognize the cycle (or at least that there is a cycle). However, most people consistently fail to recognize such patterns around them. Especially when the full pattern takes a decade to complete one cycle, and one must study multiple cycles to understand them properly. Studying asset pricing cycles is not a common pastime.

I do not expect realtors to give good cycle timing advice. They are simply not qualified to do so.

Whether buying stocks, bonds or real estate – I never trade on the basis of a broker’s advice.

I'm surprised it took this long to show up - anecdotally I was hearing stories from family members selling in San Diego county(including my parents) about no bids/slow selling since summer '04.

Guess it just takes a long time for these things to show up in the numbers.