For there borrowers, modifications that lower the interest or extend the term, just delay the inevitable - and really makes the borrowers into renters.
Thats when the next extremity is taken..not just an ARM but a LEG DOWN too. ugh.
For there borrowers, modifications that lower the interest or extend the term, just delay the inevitable - and really makes the borrowers into renters.
For those who were paying attention, this may seem like old news. Here is the man CR [over two years ago. ][]
Although many of the homeowners in the 2009 to 2011 reset periods will refinance (if they can), this shows that the problems in housing will linger for several years. What is especially concerning is all these Option ARM resets in 2010 and 2011. Most of these homeowners are selecting the minimum payments (negatively amortizing) and many homeowners will be upside down when the ARM resets
(CBS/AP) Unilever PLC's U.S. subsidiary says it has recalled all canned Slim-Fast drinks because of the possibility of bacterial contamination that could cause diarrhea, nausea and vomiting.
Unilever PLC's U.S. subsidiary says it has recalled all canned Slim-Fast drinks because of the possibility of bacterial contamination that could cause diarrhea, nausea and vomiting
I know people in the food industry and briefly worked there. The FDA and the SEC share similar views on regulation and oversight.
(AP) A judge has threatened to sentence a Tucson man to 25 days in prison for leaving jugs of water in the desert for illegal immigrants.
A federal jury in June convicted Walt Staton of littering in the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge.
In August, a judge ordered Staton to pick up trash for 300 hours and also sentenced him to a year of unsupervised probation and banned him from the refuge for a year. Man Faces Jail for Giving Immigrants Water - CBS News
Looking at the chart, could that big hunk of blue have anything to do with the cost of housing and MHI in California? Did anyone actually think these loans would perform? Come on, this is like first yr econ stuff though it still cheeses me off when I see it
As to the drop out of 22% of Chase's mortgage mods, take a look through the listings on a service like Foreclosure.com and you'll see a sea of houses that gone back to the lender but instead of being processed, they are flagged "in redemption period with lender". I'm seeing this as the borrower just kicking the can down the road a few months. Again "hoodoodanode"
Every time some lame-ass "journalist" or industry shill brings up principal forgiveness I get this sick feeling in my stomach. They just have no idea what will happen if anybody actually opens up that can of worms.
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- At least 103 people died and 131 others were hospitalized following a blaze caused by a fireworks display at a nightclub in a Russian city of Perm.
Looking at the chart, could that big hunk of blue have anything to do with the cost of housing and MHI in California? Did anyone actually think these loans would perform? Come on, this is like first yr econ stuff.
Negative equity is a key driver of weak performance — as well as a more predictive measure of default than unemployment — particularly among Option ARMs.
WTF?
Hard to pay the mortgage if you have no job; negative equity or not.
Florida Highway Patrol wrapped up their investigation Tuesday and hit Woods with a careless driving ticket that will set golf's highest paid golfer back a whopping $164.*
The FHP accounting department will issue a big phat FAIL for this episode.
One night of investigations...3 patrol cars=Cost in manpower, fuel and equipment.= $1145
One day of sending two patrol cars to TW's house to ask what happened and rejected= $450
Day two 2nd attempt , two patrol cars --rejected. = $450
Day three , Same reject- $450
Four days cost for the taxpayers =your's for only $2495
HomeGnome - WTF? Hard to pay the mortgage if you have no job; negative equity or not.
I saw that too, but I think the calling of "free" homesteading for a year+ has a strong allure. While un-employed may have savings, etc that they can draw on.
Those O/As were massively profitable for near a decade for everyone involved. The word was innovative. Heck, those innovative 20% down 30 yr fixed turned out alright despite the obvious danger compared to the 50% 7yr balloon loans of their time. Those 50% 7yr balloons were innovative compared to cash transactions in their time. I just took 70 years of financial innovation to discover the limits.
"We see the first dribble in the so called jobs program so misguidedly directed at GovJobs. That's hardly surprising coming from a senior staff with almost no private sector experience."
I am struck by all the "free marketers" who make that comment without realizing its inherent contradiction. On one hand they criticize government intervention as distorting the free market. If the government focuses on creating government jobs that is criticized because they are not private sector jobs. They will then argue that the government should cut taxes- institute the equivalent of a C4C for employers by giving them a tax credit for hiring new employees. Never mind that they criticized the C4C for creating additional demand at very high cost. Doesn't the logic of C4C not apply to new employees.
Bottom line the government has no effective mechanism to create jobs in the private sector- other than preserving the basic infrastructure and the rule of law. (all those who claim that a 7% cut in employee costs by suspending the payroll tax will generate huge hiring have clearly not run a business- in this climate employers are not worried about the 7% they are concerned about the other 93%) If the government wants to create jobs as a matter of social policy ( bad idea to have lots of unemployed people hanging around) or even economic stimulus- the best thing they can do from a free market perspective is to do it through short term government jobs leaving the free market undistorted.
For there borrowers, modifications that lower the interest or extend the term, just delay the inevitable - and really makes the borrowers into renters.
What we've done to ourselves this decade, is take life-long renters who had no business buying homes, doing just that.
When you hand over the keys to the front door of a house, to somebody that put down no money down and is essentially a glorified renter, the only thing that's different, is in their minds. a good portion of the hoi ploy mistakenly thinks they 'own' the house, perish the thought process.
A gambler asks for bailout.
Unfortunately, he has not lost nearly enough to qualify.
Had he blown $127 Billion instead of measly $127 Million, Geithner and Bernanke would have gladly cut him a check on the taxpayer behalf
The Gambler Who Blew $127 Million - WSJ.com LAS VEGAS -- During a year-long gambling binge at the Caesars Palace and Rio casinos in 2007, Terrance Watanabe managed to lose nearly $127 million.
The run is believed to be one of the biggest losing streaks by an individual in Las Vegas history. It devoured much of Mr. Watanabe's personal fortune, he says, which he built up over more than two decades running his family's party-favor import business in Omaha, Neb. It also benefited the two casinos' parent company, Harrah's Entertainment Inc., which derived about 5.6% of its Las Vegas gambling revenue from Mr. Watanabe that year.
Today, Mr. Watanabe and Harrah's are fighting over another issue: whether the casino company bears some of the responsibility for his losses.
In a civil suit filed in Clark County District Court last month, Mr. Watanabe, 52 years old, says casino staff routinely plied him with liquor and pain medication as part of a systematic plan to keep him gambling.
They just have no idea what will happen if anybody actually opens up that can of worms.
True. Yet for cases where even minimal fraud was involved, I do support forced principal reductions. Buyer be aware does not apply in RRE cases, imho, where the seller establishment is too savvy and powerful for the average home buyer, who are often desperate, emotionally and socially, to get into home ownership. Lets get real here, how many of the ARM customers do understand what the deal really is, except that the early payments are doable? Unfortunately the court systems are overloaded. Anyway my 2cents.
Let's see here:
First and last months rent plus security deposit with a good credit history
OR
125% financing with cash back at closing with NO CREDIT CHECK
In a civil suit filed in Clark County District Court last month, Mr. Watanabe, 52 years old, says casino staff routinely plied him with liquor and pain medication as part of a systematic plan to keep him gambling
---Another responsible member of society.
Poor victim.
At work right now for the next 10 hours, then I'm off to the homebrew store to pick up an all grain batch. Still not sure what I'll be making on Sunday. Great way to save some change.
Right now got a mead and an English red brewing in primary.
Rob, I just see these as a huge clusterf*ck, always have but then I'm not exactly the trusting type finance and outcomes.
'I just took 70 years of financial innovation to discover the limits."
Please tell me you were standing there like Rodin's Balzac when you said that. seriously superlative >; )
and back to the Pacman image, we need some cheeries and bombs on that chart labeled Chase, BOA, WFC, etc
In a civil suit filed in Clark County District Court last month, Mr. Watanabe, 52 years old, says casino staff routinely plied him with liquor and pain medication as part of a systematic plan to keep him gambling.
A Chinese business incubator/marketing center is set to open Dec. 14 in Atlantic Station.
Chinamex, a Beijing-based, government-sanctioned, business development company, will help Chinese companies expand in Georgia, the United States and Latin America. It runs similar operations in Dubai and Amsterdam.
Three dozen small and medium-size Chinese companies — diamond cutters, silk producers, precision drill makers, canned food exporters — will have representatives at the Midtown complex.
The China Hubei Enterprises Marketing Center will also set up shop alongside Chinamex.
Real nice.
I'm going to have to dig into the ApocalypseStash and get a couple of bottles of my orange blossom mead out for Xmas.
Maybe a couple of bottles of Imperial Stout too (11% ABV)!
California, the state that never saw a tax or regulation it didn't like has made a mockery of itself with spending discipline. I'm sure they will find some way to tax this option ARM problem to bolster their idiocy.
I just took 70 years of financial innovation to discover the limits.
I think the most important question that goes answered is " did the financial innovation cause the economic crisis or did it merely postpone it"
What would the economic trajectory have looked like through the 90's and 2000's if we hadn't had all this financial innovation. I think a good case can be made that aggregate economic activity would have been significantly lower. Remove MEW and its associated multiplier and what would economic activity have looked like. Would the aggregate Federal deficit have been higher or lower than it currently is. My guess is that at where we currently our even with the big declines we are still higher than where we would have been in an alternative scenario (which is why I believe we still have further to do on the downside).
A second question that I think we have to ask is whether the de-regulated financial environment was necessary for financial innovation. I think the evidence for this unambiguous- no we didn't - three very important financial innovation swaps, junk bonds and mortgage securities were all developed in a more regulated environment.
Sorry I missed the BFF festivities but my husband whisked me off to my birthday party last night. Had a great time and even managed to not give myself a hangover. Getting ready for the Gators/Bama game today. My bank was told nicely to merge or die yesterday by OTS. I knew it was coming. Looks like they might be one of the first to go down in 2010.
Actually, if the PITI was almost even with rental parity, I might have given it some thought. But no way was I going to bite on a PITI that even neg adjusted was over 50% of my gross. I guess you have to live here to understand this sort of madness.
Negative equity is a key driver of weak performance — as well as a more predictive measure of default than unemployment — particularly among Option ARMs.
Unemployment is less of a problem for these houses than speculation was. Most of these loans were written to people who were basically speculating. Now that their speculative investment isn't going to pay off, they are bailing right and left. It's just a business decision, you know
I think a good case can be made that aggregate economic activity would have been significantly lower. Remove MEW and its associated multiplier and what would economic activity have looked like. Would the aggregate Federal deficit have been higher or lower than it currently is. My guess is that at where we currently our even with the big declines we are still higher than where we would have been in an alternative scenario (which is why I believe we still have further to do on the downside).
With the economy not appearing exceedingly healthy
- We would not have had the second Iraq war
- We would not have had Bush 2 tax cuts and probably we would have had a more balanced budget
- We would have to deal with health care issue sooner
- We would have better allocated productive resources (both talent and capital)
At the same time, the amount of consumer goods would have been lower (fewer and smaller cars, TVs, homes)
Globalization and globalism will be under some serious pressure in not too distant future.
India has more children today under 15 than the entire US population!
India to add 220 million to workforce by 2030: RBI
Every time some lame-ass "journalist" or industry shill brings up principal forgiveness I get this sick feeling in my stomach. They just have no idea what will happen if anybody actually opens up that can of worms.
A second question that I think we have to ask is whether the de-regulated financial environment was necessary for financial innovation. I think the evidence for this unambiguous- no we didn't - three very important financial innovation swaps, junk bonds and mortgage securities were all developed in a more regulated environment.
Excellent. The entirety of our millions of pages of financial regulation can be distilled into answering two questions. Has risk been diminished or merely disaggregated? Has the risk been properly assigned and revealed?
I met him a few years back and a relative worked for him before he sold his business - he was always a bit out there - never could tell if it was booze, drugs, or just a personality disorder - maybe all three
I remember the shame of the neighborhood was 3 doors down from us. They had declared bankruptcy, and the neighborhood was aghast that such a thing could happen in this day and age, 1968.
Flash-forward to today, and a good portion of the commercials on tv, tell you how you can evade your debts in some fashion or another by declaring bankruptcy...
Looking at the chart, could that big hunk of blue have anything to do with the cost of housing and MHI in California? Did anyone actually think these loans would perform?
They thought the mortgages would perform by selling or refinancing to a bigger fool. In case it all came crashing down, the portfolio was mostly securitized.
Back in the day, these loans had a really short expected life, and the lenders were usually right.
Reread, I said I did NOT have one. I paced myself and even turned down shots my boss offered me. I drink White Russians so shots seemed unnecessary. The B complex is great though. I drink Glaceau Vitamin Water the "Revive" Fruit Punch flavored one. It has all the B's and a load of Potassium in it. The stuff is a miracle hangover cure. I recommend it to all my customers lol...
snip/
According to the newspaper, the mayor's first posting read, "Ok, so, this is total crap, we sit the kids down to watch 'The Charlie Brown Christmas Special' and our muslim president is there, what a load.....try to convince me that wasn't done on purpose. Ask the man if he believes that Jesus Christ is the Son of God and he will give you a 10 minute disertation (sic) about it....w...hen the answer should simply be 'yes'...."
In another posting Wiseman attacked the President, his supporters and Muslims, by saying "...you obama people need to move to a muslim country...oh wait, that's America....pitiful."
---Bwahahahahahahahaha!
Mayor Russell Wiseman you're a blockhead.
True. Yet for cases where even minimal fraud was involved, I do support forced principal reductions. Buyer be aware does not apply in RRE cases, imho, where the seller establishment is too savvy and powerful for the average home buyer, who are often desperate, emotionally and socially, to get into home ownership. Lets get real here, how many of the ARM customers do understand what the deal really is, except that the early payments are doable? Unfortunately the court systems are overloaded. Anyway my 2cents.
Yeah, I get that and agree on the outright fraud. The problem thought will be how do you prove the fraud? Once somebody does one principal reduction the line will stretch around the globe of people wanting one, which will set off a whole new game of fraud and the race will be on. Once J6P down the street gets a reduction, that resets the comps in the neighborhood lower and suddenly all his neighbors want one, too. When you put in a "hardship" exemption, it becomes suddenly amazing how many people have "hardship."
Once they start with principal forgiveness, it won't stop until every homeowner with a mortgage gets one.
I recommend a very hot shower, lots of water, and a large dose of Vit B complex >; )
Lots of Vit C as well. I survived a Georgian banquet that way. Brandy in water tumblers - many of them. The water is important to re-hydrate. You will have to get up many times during the night, but it's worth it. There was hangover the next morning.
I missed the loan mod thread but I notice the banks are trying to say people are not submitting the required documents...Hmmmm I've submitted mine over and over and over...They are in CYA mode because they are simply NOT doing the mods. They've had my documents for months. They've lost them, found them, lost them....In short they are full of shit.
I've submitted mine over and over and over...They are in CYA mode because they are simply NOT doing the mods. They've had my documents for months. They've lost them, found them, lost them....In short they are full of shit.
The principle you are describing is; "Not liking the answer is not the same as not having the answer."
The DWR (Department of Water Resources) has announced that preliminary allocations of water are 5%, for 2010.
You can see what a mess California is in financially, but the real disaster is looming underfoot.
Nothing to do with needing to pass a $11b water bond no does it? BTW, and this is very important. In the interests of full disclosure; "I have no political or financial interests in either this bond, or any of the projects proposed and derive no income from any aspect of California water issues." [Your turn.]
The first punch Sunday-Monday is wickedly cold (snow down to 1,000 feet) and maybe 1/2 an inch or so, storm #2 rolls in on Wednesday-Thursday, but it's the pineapple-express flavor flav, and it rains heavily up to 7,000 feet.
It's a preliminary estimate, which tends to be on the low side. Last year, they announced 15%, and the allocations ended up being 40%, so using the same scale, one would expect 20% this year, no?
Vemonters are hungry for snow BTW, no accumulate yet and the record breaker date for late accumulating is now in sight. We've had snizzles. The ski people are doing some mighty hand-wringing as last week was too freaking warm for No.VT.
It's the worst kind of storm, because it will snow in the recently burned 250,000 acres above the City of Angles, and then when the pineapple-express shows up, all that snow melts off...
oh crap, landslide time. This has been a strange year weather related all around. We maybe a continent away but strange stuff happening here too, El Nino perhaps. Edit to add: I saw a Monarch butterfly caterpillar last week...too strange.
Certainly true, but I had the sense that a higher principle than my short curlies were involved.
When I went through my bank credit training (during the dark ages) the first lesson they taught us was "lend to a thief and you are going to get stolen from" and the first principle of contract law is as I said - "when they have you by the short and curly there is no higher principle at work".
really sad about that fire... Newcombs Ranch burned down...Mill creek ranger station torched.
All the places I remember from hiking the Pacific Crest Trail this summer in that section are fired. I hope it does'nt get that bad with erosion issues.
A monetary economist from Mars could only scratch his pointy head at our 21st century monetary arrangements. What is a dollar? he might ask. No response. The Martian can't find out because the earthlings don't know. The value of a dollar is undefined. Its relationship to other currencies is similarly contingent. Some exchange rates float, others sink, still others are lashed to the dollar (whatever it is). Discouraged, the visitor zooms home.
Neither would the ghosts of earthly finance know what to make of things if they returned for a briefing from wherever they were spending eternity. Someone would have to tell Alexander Hamilton that his system of coins is defunct, as is, incidentally, the federal sinking fund he devised to retire the public debt (it went out of business in 1960). He might have to hear it more than once to understand, but Congress no longer "coins" money and regulates the value thereof. Rather, it delegates the work to Mr. Bernanke, who, a noted student of the Great Depression, believes that the cure for borrowing too much money is printing more money.
Truth to be told, I didn't know exactly what a OA loan was till 2006.
I was brought up in 'if you can't put 10% down and amortize the principal over no more than 30 years YOU CAN NOT AFFORD IT' world. Where I got my education was when I first started looking at beach houses on the outer banks of NC. On five house I asked for all rental income and expenses for prior 3 years. Roughly, expenses ran 10% on a 700K house (assuming 100% loan amortized 30 years) with income 30 -35K. Notwithstanding tax advantages, I was looking at least a 35K negative cashflow on a house that I could use only deep offseason. But the listing RE agent for each property would use OA and IO as 'best cashflow' financing to make the numbers more palatable (not one showed financing using amortization). I told the agent this was crazy and would wait until the houses fell 50%. She gently explained to me that she had worked the market for 20 years and assured me that prices DON'T GO DOWN. I said 'we'll see about that'.
It really drove home the point that OA's increased prices. If two people of equal means are bidding on a house and one is willing to go the OA route and the other only a more traditional route, the OA bidder will win every time.
Prices have since corrected to point that by next year I should be able to pick up a house (foreclosure, of course) at 50% off of 2006 pricing.
,rad Dawgma,
It's a preliminary estimate, which tends to be on the low side. Last year, they announced 15%, and the allocations ended up being 40%, so using the same scale, one would expect 20% this year, no?
Yup but not until after the vote right? For the record: "I have no political or financial interests in either this bond, or any of the projects proposed and derive no income from any aspect of California water issues." [Your turn.]
El Nino is strengthening and this looks like a normal ± year at worst despite the silly 5% projection. If they push too hard on Federal delivery numbers they could find themselves in a wheeling war where the customers refuse anything more than the 5% forcing a cash crisis and leaving them no place to dump the water without looking foolish. It won't get to that but nobody believes the 5% either.
With the economy not appearing exceedingly healthy
- We would not have had the second Iraq war
- We would not have had Bush 2 tax cuts and probably we would have had a more balanced budget
- We would have to deal with health care issue sooner
- We would have better allocated productive resources (both talent and capital)
At the same time, the amount of consumer goods would have been lower (fewer and smaller cars, TVs, homes)
Mr M.
I don't disagree with any of your conclusion BTW. The comport entirely with my belief that the financial crisis was the consequence not the cause of economic problems. I consequently find all this happy talk about the economy completely misplaced because it fails to acknowledge the rot that existed before the financial crisis. I kind find one thing that we have done in the last 15 months that reverses the trajectory prior to the economic crisis.
My point is a much bigger one - if we just limit ourselves to vilifying bankers ( however much they deserve it) we don't deal with the cause only the symptom.
If two people of equal means are bidding on a house and one is willing to go the OA route and the other only a more traditional route, the OA bidder will win every time.
I don't think your mind can wrap itself around the water war that's coming, I hope you aren't one of the 25 million people in the state that depend on water from somewhere else, far far away.
That chart is amazing, I didn't think it possible for Cali to take up more than 50% of Option ARMs. I wonder if it would be possible to ban rentals of SFH to lower the equilibrium levels.
I don't think your mind can wrap itself around the water war that's coming, I hope you aren't one of the 25 million people in the state that depend on water from somewhere else, far far away.
I'm more concerned about how much you stand to gain from starting that war Mr. Hearst.
In the interests of full disclosure; "I have no political or financial interests in either this bond, or any of the projects proposed and derive no income from any aspect of California water issues." [Your turn.]
JD: Thats been on its way for sometime now. Its also a problem in the SE US and increasingly so. Idiots had BOOM growth in populations and did nothing to increase water infrastructure. The past 5 years were horrific, even going back in the '90s when I was living there, water restrictions just a matter of when, not if, every summer. GA was underwater this year as it appears to be a feast or famine state.
Very true... wait until all these borrowers have to pay even 1 or 2 percent more for their major loans such as mortgages... and an additional 5% on the credit card balances... We may have seen the worst of the institutional crisis, but certainly not for the individual investor.
There's an awesome place called Willettt Hot Springs, just off the Sespe River, a 10 mile walk to a 105 degree tub, from Piedra Blanca trailhead, and the Day Fire took out wide swaths of brush and trees (must have been hot, we saw leftover stumps of 4 inch wide trees) and the trail used to be a dirt road where you could drive to the hot springs until the early 1970's, and there must have been 300 vintage beer cans and bottles along the trail, that were formerly hidden in the bush...
China’s decision makers met in Beijing Dec. 5 at the Central Economic Work Conference to set policies for 2010, Xinhua reported. They aim to deal with the effects of the global financial crisis and cement the foundation for China’s economic recovery. Analysts with the government think tank Development Research Center of the State Council said dealing with further fallout from the international financial crisis remains a major task for China in the year ahead."
Dr. Stock: This is an article going back to October of this year:
Of course Citi isn't alone and this was partially in response to the legislation aimed at preventing just this sort of behavior. The real mind blower is how much the US taxpayer owns of these and other such fine outstanding companies who still are for all practical purposes, insolvent.
People are outraged lately with Citi (C), because the bank is jacking up credit card rates and cutting of customers without notice. We asked them for comment and here's what VP of Public Affairs Samuel Wang had to say:
“Citi has decided to close a limited number of Oil partner co-branded MasterCard accounts. Citi continuously evaluates how to best meet the needs of its retailer partners and, in consultation with our partners, we periodically make adjustments to the products we offer consumers.”
That's not too helpful, and it doesn't address thethousands of people who have had their interest rates
jacked up to 29.99%.
The first punch Sunday-Monday is wickedly cold (snow down to 1,000 feet) and maybe 1/2 an inch or so
Houston just got a dose of that yesterday...heavy snow at times but didn't stick, then cold enough to ice up a bit overnight (and I call heavy snow with 12 years in Alaska - it was wild to see)
"Negative equity is a key driver of weak performance — as well as a more predictive measure of default than unemployment — particularly among Option ARMs."
And what's the best predictor of negative equity when the loan is originally underwritten? Down payment amount, of course. And how have the PTB responded to all this? By lowering down payment requirements to way less than 20% for vast numbers of new buyers.
There is no evidence that the PTB are trying to cure the underlying problem with housing finance.
Here's more dismal performance from another pretender Pres. in succession from JFK who is afraid to buck the MIC.
IMHO Obama has blown his best chance to be a truly great President
by Lepanto on Fri Dec 04, 2009 at 12:34:07 PM PST Daily Kos: State of the Nation
He had the chance of remolding our foreign policy so that it doesn't automatically have a knee-jerk recourse to violence, to further war-waging, so as to solve all problems. Instead he opted for escalation, for more war, for more of the same. And now he's trapped into a cicle of escalation after escalation, always promising light at the end of the tunnel, always chasing an illusory Victory in an unwinnable war.
So much for Hope and Change.
Yep, he's blown it.
Sad.
We're shocked by a naked nipple, but not by naked aggression.
He blew that when he appointed his cabinet:
by obiterdictum on Fri Dec 04, 2009 at 01:29:51 PM PST Daily Kos: State of the Nation
Rahm to run his White House, the boys from Goldman Sachs to finish looting the economy, the boys from Monsanto to oversee food safety and agriculture. He blew it when he made a secret deal with the pharmaceutical companies and took single-payer off the table. He blew it when he retained Cheney's generals and policies to drive us into yet another endless war - a war that will only benefit Blackwater, Halliburton, and whoever makes the drones that are killing civilians (and inspiring another generation of terrorists) in Pakistan.
He blew it whenever it was that he agreed to do whatever he had to do, make whatever deals he had to make, tell whatever lies would work, follow whatever directives he receives from the Wall Street/military/corporate establishment that will only protect him from assassination so long as he is useful.
So he will make artfully disingenuous speeches and follow orders: no matter how savage or repugnant, no matter how unwise, no matter how unconstitutional, no matter how utterly devoid of the lessons of logic, math, history, and common sense.
We don't need a third party. We need a second party.
politics - such an utter waste of time. As if it mattered which party holds office. It's the people who pay for the political office who run things not the officeholders - wake the freak up !!!
It's the worst kind of storm, because it will snow in the recently burned 250,000 acres above the City of Angles, and then when the pineapple-express shows up, all that snow melts off...
Standard Cal. weather pattern. I remember driving thru Big Sur years back....you couldn't see the burn, it was waay up in the hills, but you sure could see the houses rolled down the creek.....
He had the chance of remolding our foreign policy so that it doesn't automatically have a knee-jerk recourse to violence, to further war-waging, so as to solve all problems.
I have to disagree here. I think his response to the situation in Afghanistan was measured and rational. That's not to say that I know whether or not the war is 'winnable'. Nor do I like the idea of many US units pinned down for some years on that front. Still, the idea of unconditional withdrawal is a non-starter. That would initiate a rolling disaster.
That fire reminds me of the Station nightclub fire which killed over 100 people:
It seems that my intuition was wrong on that fire in Perm, at least according to reports. But when I read that the minister of emergency situations, Shoigu, was on his way to Perm, it set off my own personal alarms. But reports say that the investigation is being carried out by local police authorities.
Real Clear Politics takes the average of various polls. O first fell below 50% approval 10 days ago. Yesterdays average sitting at 49.3% approval - O's lowest (so far).
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I don't think your mind can wrap itself around the water war that's coming
All the best range wars in the West were over water...
Whiskey's fer drinkin' and all that. Besides I bet you don't have an undisclosed interest in the the fight. The "water war" is going to be much like the finance wars we are fighting now. The people supposed to represent us and protect the public are now part of the problem.
Our local news did a segment on how the loan mod process is hurting people - used one example of the overwhelmed servicer telling the homeowner to miss a payment or 2 to qualify. That didn't work out so well. Etc. Looks like you are not alone on that road.
Besides I bet you don't have an undisclosed interest in the the fight.
FD: No financial interests there, though I do have relatives living in state, from the OC to Placerville and points in between...their interests are all solely as residents and taxpayers.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Besides I bet you don't have an undisclosed interest in the the fight.
FD: No financial interests there, though I do have relatives living in state, from the OC to Placerville and points in between...their interests are all solely as residents and taxpayers.
That makes two of us so far, and only two of us if you get my drift. Speaking of the left coast and on topic I see all those O/As as being long dated options with an initial period of no time decay. When those hit recast I don't see hardly any of them remaining in the performing category. Some will expire worthless and those will be lucky ones.
There's an awesome place called Willettt Hot Springs, just off the Sespe River, a 10 mile walk to a 105 degree tub, from Piedra Blanca trailhead
My younger years were in Ojai, and I backpacked the area frequently.
Southern California is not even remotely survivable, with water being only one of the issues.
It is the machete mostpih action that has me freighted for friends and family.
We are going to send 30,000 more people (read: 90,000 more, 2 Xe's or Haliburtons for every g.i.) into a meatgrinder for seemingly no purpose whatsoever, as we are leaving in 2011.
Sadly, our only industry that isn't flat on it's face, is the military industrial complex, our last bastion of profit.
A year? A year is nothing. You have to get to 2 1/2 years
free living before I get impressed.
My pal the appraiser hasn't paid in 2 years 3 months. He
didn't hire me. All he did was hide from the process server. He
doesn't plan to modify; he'd have to get a 100k cramdown, and
ignore the 2nd (which is being ignored anyway) for it to make
any financial sense.
@ Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 12/5/2009 - 10:38 am
the military industrial complex, our last bastion of profit.
the MIC is last bastion for keeping US $ reserves of countries at a high enough level and for them to continue to buy our T notes & bonds. Otherwise it's no longer drip, drip, drip but a tsunami to biggest banana republic in the world !
We are going to send 30,000 more people (read: 90,000 more, 2 Xe's or Haliburtons for every g.i.) into a meatgrinder for seemingly no purpose whatsoever, as we are leaving in 2011.
Sadly, our only industry that isn't flat on it's face, is the military industrial complex, our last bastion of profit. "
JD, I'm not a war lover. I just don't think there is a choice here. Nor do I believe that if we simply pick up and go we won't have to fight again either there, or elsewhere.
Easy for me to say, right? I'm much too old to have to put myself at physical risk now. I know it. And I know there will be personal tragedy. It's hateful and sorrowful, but I don't think there's a way around it.
And what's the best predictor of negative equity when the loan is originally underwritten? Down payment amount, of course. And how have the PTB responded to all this? By lowering down payment requirements to way less than 20% for vast numbers of new buyers.
Follow the logic here....it's ok if home values plummet, as long as the buyers put in 20%, because then it's their money that goes up in smoke, not the banks.
As So Cal unravels from the 1-2 punch of lack of water and money, i'll be glimpsing the show-not unlike Pliny the Elder did, watching Vesuvius do it's thing, from a fair distance.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
There's an awesome place called Willettt Hot Springs, just off the Sespe River, a 10 mile walk to a 105 degree tub, from Piedra Blanca trailhead
My younger years were in Ojai, and I backpacked the area frequently.
Southern California is not even remotely survivable, with water being only one of the issues.
GPS: N 34 35.680, W 118 59.870
Anyway, I get confused over the SoCal is unsustainable meme. Repetition is not evidence. In what way is SoCal more unsustainable than any other metroplex? I imagine places like Portland or Omaha would do much better in a general collapse but that's a size issue. If the electric grid were to go down right now in December I'd rather be here than anywhere in BosWash.
I have to disagree here. I think his response to the situation in Afghanistan was measured and rational. That's not to say that I know whether or not the war is 'winnable'. Nor do I like the idea of many US units pinned down for some years on that front. Still, the idea of unconditional withdrawal is a non-starter. That would initiate a rolling disaster.
Oh, Pavel....sigh. It's really not much different from the "let 'em go BK" vs. "extend & pretend". Both stink to high heaven.
As So Cal unravels from the 1-2 punch of lack of water and money, i'll be glimpsing the show-not unlike Pliny the Elder did, watching Vesuvius do it's thing, from a fair distance.
He died in the eruption. Much like Vesuvius the safe distance is a lot further than nearly everyone imagines.
We just got in a 3 DVD series "The Complete Story World War 1" narrated by Robert Ryan, 3 hours or so of vintage WW1 film. Much of it i've never seen before, and the Austrian-Italian front was the worst of many worlds, heavy casualties @ high altitude, clips showed dozens of men dragging up ever larger cannons up a steep snow-slopes, a never-ending war as they all are.
Austrians & Italians get along alright nowadays?
It's been 34 years since we left Vietnam, disgraced. But, I could fly there tomorrow if I wanted to.
Follow the logic here....it's ok if home values plummet, as long as the buyers put in 20%, because then it's their money that goes up in smoke, not the banks.
justaskin, prices are still way too high. Requiring 20% downpayments would force them to reset very quickly. After that point, prices would be equally likely to go down or up. If prices go up, who gets to keep most of the gains? That same person should get to keep most of the losses if prices go down instead. If they aren't ready for that bargain, then they are not ready to buy the asset. There are plenty of rentals.
If the electric grid were to go down right now in December I'd rather be here than anywhere in BosWash.
Dawg- SoCal was Eden without the snakes in the 1950's and even part of the 60s. I grew up there surfing, living on the beach fro practically nothing, etc- I think you get the picture.
However, with an intact ecosystem, the LA basin can support about 100,000 people, without huge inputs of food and water, that are coming under increasing pressure from resource and infrastructure constrains, and the system is fragile, and based on a climate period anomaly.
The Ethic hostility in LA is above average, and as jobs, food, water become scarce, people who have grown up on computer games will just take what they can. Things will go down hill from there.
The only question, is how this will unravel.
Dawg- SoCal was Eden without the snakes in the 1950's and even part of the 60s. I grew up there surfing, living on the beach fro practically nothing, etc- I think you get the picture
Overpopulation. The big global problem that we cannot even acknowledge in polite company.
Overpopulation. The big global problem that we cannot even acknowledge in polite company.
Of course we can, we are overpopulated by at least 6 billion humans who are here because we won the energy lottery when we discovered fossil fuels.
The last time we lived on a truly solar economy was 1700, and the planet had 1 billion people, with oceans full of fish, and several continents to plunder.
Oh, Pavel....sigh. It's really not much different from the "let 'em go BK" vs. "extend & pretend". Both stink to high heaven.
Justaskin, if you think withdrawing cold would work better, please explain how,
Some years ago a retired Special Forces colonel with a distinguished combat record said to me: I think anyone who starts a war ought to be put on trial.
He wasn't a war lover either.
I don't think we started this one. We had correct relations with the Taliban before 9 - 11. But they gave sanctuary to people who attacked us. Those people still very much in the region. What are we supposed to do? If we leave what guarantee is there that they'll leave us alone?
The banks always have the option, if they don't like the ones presented to them, of foreclosing and following that path. I have zero sympathy for them.
Gold: The amazing series of upside gaps got filled yesterday. For traders, many newbies and confidents just got baptized on the meaning of leverage.. buh bye.
The price will descend further, though I dunnot like it as I added at 1179 to LT position. Big buying oppty is coming up.
More gap retracement work to do on the downside. And then at 1045 if we're lucky to see it, diving head to toe into gold for the ride to The Great Doubling. That should be when others are fleeing because they'll be convinced the rise is over. Ask the MSM and many here. Yes, for you, the rise that never benefited you will be ending... probably after the USD is a pile of rungs lower than where it's at.
It's just so damn uncomfortable to see the profits vanish; must be like owning property bought in 04 and 05, only this loss is temporary and those RE albatross jewelry wearers had beeter embrace the US Govt and FedRes or else they'll be wearing another few bracelets tossed around their necks. They couldn't add, and still can't. 2+2=4.
Rahm Emmanuel is smart; so I'm giving the WHouse a seat at my pensational table. But the game can't restart unless everyone thinks it's really over, imo.
And as to wiseacre replies, screw off; do it your way; best to y'a. Tell the world what you do, not what is incomprehensible to you.
Y'a see, in my older age, I'll hang at the surf, when it's warm, and party without concern for a thing. Oh, wait, I do that now. Not. It was such a bore; only my dog was happy. Oh yes, the bitch was very happy playing around and doing nothing.
No it was rational behavior and still is. Many people made a great deal of money.
It was rational behavior by the employees of the banks - they were just responding to the financial incentives that were presented to them. As long as you don't change the environment that they operate under you will continue to get the same results. Case in point what is the average tenure of an employee at major bank today compare that with what it was 35 years ago? If you are only going to be around for a 4-5 years why not role the dice today. If there is a 1/6 chance of your blowing up there is a good chance that you will spend you tenure just being a winner- which means that you get a higher offer on your next move.
I would add the current system also gives rise to a perverse survivor bias. The trader who doesn't blow up in the first year gets higher limits. The longer he avoids a blow up the higher his limits. So when he finally blows up (as all traders will at some point in their careers) they will do it with the highest limits they have had.
Only 40% two months behind? That's not too worrying. I am confident that almost all those people can get current at some point without any losses having to be taken by anyone. [/sarcasm]
I have to disagree here. I think his response to the situation in Afghanistan was measured and rational.
Okay, fine. So what's wrong with giving the American people a reasonable estimate of the range of probable costs to continue waging the war in Afghanistan, from here to conclusion?
Along with this estimated range, you could tack on: "It is very highly probable that all war costs will be financed with borrowed money, and this estimate does not include interest costs of new debt."
What's wrong with telling Americans that it's very likely tax increases will have to be considered to pay the costs?
Puts the whole argument in a different light, no?
Obama was supposed to be the new transparent truth-teller President.
lawyerliz wrote:
The depth and breadth of stupidity of the banks is still breathe-taking.
No it was rational behavior and still is. Many people made a great deal of money.
Exactly what I said above:
Those O/As were massively profitable for near a decade for everyone involved. The word was innovative. Heck, those innovative 20% down 30 yr fixed turned out alright despite the obvious danger compared to the 50% 7yr balloon loans of their time. Those 50% 7yr balloons were innovative compared to cash transactions in their time. It just took 70 years of financial innovation to discover the limits.
We need to compensate these transactions on ultimate performance not mere execution.
Hank Paulson hands a two page 'tarp' bill to Congress and threatens disaster, and he gets all he wants, and more, with Geithner continuing that 'you need cash now!' method for the banks and the Street.
But when it comes to Main Street, things 'have to work slowly?' .....The issue is that Congress and this White House are totally indifferent to the plight of the American worker and small business owner.
Until we clean out Congress, and I must say, put someone who respects the American people into the White House, we will see more of what we're getting now, and it's totally unacceptable.
don't look at me, I got rid my physical silver and a little gold on Thursday. I'm still happy.
But then I'm still happy I didn't buy a house from 02 to now and sold my AAPL in late July >; )
Has anyone seen the unemployment numbers adjusted by the huge under-the-table employment game now in full sway?
At the bank yesterday in line, the young man, around 22 or so, was regaling a high school friend about their classmates and himself. At least 2 are full time employed in the cash game while receiving unemployment. As he said, "Sweet. It's all good."
The UI game is broken. There's a pretty active community of non taxpayers generating hand to mouth incomes.
Overpopulation. The big global problem that we cannot even acknowledge in polite company.
Ain't that the truth. As California's budget problems worsen, they are going to have to start cutting back on services to the low-income population. There are riots in our future.
Okay, fine. So what's wrong with giving the American people a reasonable estimate of the range of probable costs to continue waging the war in Afghanistan, from here to conclusion?
I saw a man crying to himself on Metro last night as I was coming home.
Today I died. Yes, it hurt. I thought I had the bleeding under control. I didn’t. Standing there, wedged against the door because of the crowd, I lost it again. Not noticeably I think. Not that it matters. They were strangers. Hell, they all had jobs probably. I no longer did. If anyone did look, all they saw was a white guy in a suit massaging his face and forehead. The blood welling in my eyes, running down my face, covered and then wiped away by my hands.
“It’s over. It’s over. It’s over” was running through my head in a continuous loop. Not “over” as in the job was over. This was “over” as in end of game over. I had run the numbers enough times, listened to enough stories to know. The bitter and most painful part was my age. I had come back from bad times before. I knew what had to be done. I also knew at 56 I was not going to get the chance.
Just as well, because deep down inside I knew I didn’t have it anymore. The drive, the passion, the energy, it just wasn’t there. I was good at what I did. So were a lot of the people who were a lot younger and cheaper. It was over. No way was our ship going to make it to far shore. Without my job to drive it, well, we were going down. The fear, the sense of failure, the knowledge that the pain had only started, especially, and this is what hurt the most, the knowledge that this was it, that for all of my life, this was going to be the high water mark. That ripped through me like German steel.
Overpopulation. The big global problem that we cannot even acknowledge in polite company.
Mother will solve it for us...or we get another global intramural scrimmage going...but it ain't going to be pretty. Put these two papers together and it just looks fugly unless we can open up the bottle one way or another:
Sat down to lunch yesterday with a reservoir engineer (20+ years experience) who said he thought the technical work was solid and generally agreed with the conclusions regarding the IEA oil production forecast: http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/PeakOilAge.pdf
At civilization’s core there is a single constant factor, λ = 9.7 ± 0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 dollar, that ties the global economy to simple physical principles. Viewed from this perspective, civilization evolves in a spontaneous feedback loop maintained only by energy consumption and incorporation of environmental matter.
don't look at me, I got rid my physical silver and a little gold on Thursday. I'm still happy.
But then I'm still happy I didn't buy a house from 02 to now and sold my AAPL in late July >; )
From my blog a month ago:
Feb '06 median Ventura County home: $680k Price of gold: $560/oz. Median home price in gold: 1214 ounces.
Oct '09 median Ventura county home: $419k Price of gold: $1000 Median home price in gold: 419 ounces.
Value today [Nov 09] of the gold you bought in 2006 after selling your house: $1,214,000.
Don't talk to me bout AAPL. I was waiting for an entre below $85. My fault for timing the bottom.
I think the younger was watching from a ship and the elder
went ashore.
Is the plural of Pliny Plinies?
I don't think you can stand back from this disaster unless you get
off the planet entirely.
A prospective new foreclosure defendee. For some reason I was
suspicious. I did a little computer check on the public records.
The client wasn't the original borrower. Juan bought from Shakey
hand and signed the mortgage. El cliento nuevo got a quit claim deed
dated the same day as the mtg, but not filed until several months
later. The title company, who supposedly represented the lender
prepared the quit claim deed.
Sigh. No one will care about this situation.
And values have gone down for the sneaky and the not-so-sneaky.
At civilization’s core there is a single constant factor, λ = 9.7 ± 0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 dollar, that ties the global economy to simple physical principles. Viewed from this perspective, civilization evolves in a spontaneous feedback loop maintained only by energy consumption and incorporation of environmental matter.
What about the extremely complex inter-relationships of human economies, cultures and the biosphere plus the physical properties of the planet?
HomeGnome, they weren't given sanctuary in Saudi Arabia. Their headquarters weren't in Saudi Arabia.
Correct on the facts, as always, Pavel. But look at what is going on: Saudis send the money to Pakistan, a nuclear power we cannot apply force to. There, under the nuclear umbrella, the money is used to nurture and support a flow of new jihadists from the local areas, from Afghanistan, and from around the world.
I don't think you can stand back from this disaster unless you get
off the planet entirely.
Liz, not so fast. This is a meteor swarm. People falling down dead others next to them untouched. Think "Lathe of Heaven" not "The Liberation of Earth." We are going to get through this. Strangely all we a fighting over now is whether 10% take a 80% hit or 80% take a 20% hit.
Iran urged Switzerland not to enforce a ban on the building of new mosque minarets and warned of “consequences” if Bern did not comply, IRNA reported Dec. 5. The ban was backed by more than 57% of voters in a Nov. 29 referendum. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki reportedly said the vote went against Switzerland’s claims that it advocates democracy and human rights.
My point was that for years there has been no human being at
a bank who was anything but punished for making a decision to
lose less money rather than more money. From top to bottom.
It is, of course, in the interest of the shareholders to lose less
money rather than more, but it costs money to hire enough
sensible people who know what they are doing and decide
rationally. Devoting money to a money losing department, in
order to lose less, even a lot less, is something they are unable
to wrap their minds around.
I'd hate to have to live up to that, Patientrenter. : )
Saudis send the money to Pakistan, a nuclear power we cannot apply force to. There, under the nuclear umbrella, the money is used to nurture and support a flow of new jihadists from the local areas, from Afghanistan, and from around the world.
Yes, I agree, it's a very complex and difficult situation.
What about the extremely complex inter-relationships of human economies, cultures and the biosphere plus the physical properties of the planet?
But you can cut through that Gordian knot of complexity, and get an almost perfect solution, by simply assuming that human beings will always reproduce to the point where it hurts. They cannot seem, as a whole, to stay well within the limits of what is supportable. I'd guess that 500 million would be an enormously more supportable global human population, but we're over 10 times that number now.
What about the extremely complex inter-relationships of human economies, cultures and the biosphere plus the physical properties of the planet?
I think that is the +/- 0.3 mW, pavel
Seriously though, if those factors result in a decrease in energy consumption, there would be a corresponding decrease in the global GDP as measured in constant 1990 dollars. That isn't the big takeaway for me, it is the impact on civilization, which is at its most basic comprised of people and stuff...and has had an expanding interface extracting and consuming material resources growing at an exponential rate in a finite container.
I have read on here that there was a global disaster (volcano?) about
70k years ago, which killed all but a very few. I guess the only ones
who survived were the ones who bred like rabbits. Most animals reproduce
until they reach peak capacity. It would be nice to think we could do better,
but we don't.
We just had the Vesuvius exhibit here at LA County Museum of Art. Pliny the Elder's body was found intact and unharmed at an (apparently) safe vantage point. He's presumed to have died of a heart attack, though other causes are possible. Pliny the Younger is the one who survived and documented the event.
I bought in March but only enough that I could afford to lose. By June, I was thinking "better sell 'cause this is stupid". I stayed until late July and then full stopped out of everything. As Popeye used to say, you gotta take the profits sometime and I did biting my fingernails the entire time.
I did learn that I don't have the nerves to be a trader. Between that March to July run and shorting HB back in the day, I must have had a PB over 150/110 for the duration.
The little gold and ton of silver were my version of digging under the cushions, it was all casting grain and wire. Still 102 oz of silver was nice to get rid of.
If they do, there should be no problem, as long as their solution can meet our solution in important ways. I think, preeminently, no sanctuary for Al-Qaeda. And then, no overthrow of the present political system in Pakistan. No violent overthrow of the government in Kabul.
A "terrorist" could possibly be anywhere or anyone.
The origins of al-Qaeda as a network inspiring terrorism around the world and training operatives can be traced to the Soviet war in Afghanistan.[29] The United States viewed the conflict in Afghanistan, with the Afghan Marxists and allied Soviet troops on one side and the native Afghan mujahideen on the other, as a blatant case of Soviet expansionism and aggression. The U.S. channelled funds through Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency to the native Afghan mujahedeen fighting the Soviet occupation in a CIA program called Operation Cyclone.[30][31] Al-Qaeda - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Is your belief that we must control every other nation on the planet in order to deny "terrorists" (because 20 years ago they were our "freedom fighters") sanctuary?
Is your belief that we must control every other nation on the planet in order to deny "terrorists" (because 20 years ago they were our "freedom fighters") sanctuary?
Obviously not, HG, even if it were possible, which it is not.
I'd guess that 500 million would be an enormously more supportable global human population, but we're over 10 times that number now.
Numerous population biologists would say that is optistimitic, but some are right with this number.
What is quite clear, there will not be 7 billion humans on the planet in the near future.
How that unwinds is what will be interesting.
The Taliban were much more effective at curtailing poppy production than the US.
Fancy, that.
Yes, that was good. In other ways they were not so good. But it was the training camps that were the main beef. IIRC we told them that if they closed the camps and handed over OBL and others they would be left alone. They did not.
Meanwhile, every day, every hour, more opium grows in the background.
Actually, the planet is flooded with heroin, and the market is falling.
A case of the capitalism over producing again, and a market correction is happening right now.
And poor Burma gets cut out of the picture.
No American national interest is served by the war in Afghanistan. As the former UK Ambassador Craig Murray disclosed, the purpose of the war is to protect Unocal’s interest in the Trans-Afghanistan pipeline. The cost of the war is many times greater than Unocal’s investment in the pipeline. The obvious solution is to buy out Unocal and give the pipeline to the Afghans as partial compensation for the destruction we have inflicted on that country and its population, and bring the troops home.
Whose rationanality- yours (as a tax payer) the shareholders (which shareholders), the employee, senior managment.
There is not one single action that is rational for all those players. Until we understand that every reform will fail. Once we accept that people weren't stupid and they were in fact acting rationally in their best interests than we can work towards a solution that will protect tax payers. When I first started in Banking- CEO made a lot of money in salary but had very small bonuses. The web of regulation meant that they could not be accused of being timid. Their interest was to make sure that their very cushy jobs (six weeks vacation) and pensions were protected. This lined up their interests and those of the tax payer perfectly and the shareholders who looked on the stock as "widows and orphans" play. Banking was described as 5-8-3 - take at 5% lend at 8% and be on the golf course at 3.
*The obvious solution is to buy out Unocal and give the pipeline to the Afghans *
Which Afghans.
Is it really true that the Taliban's problem is that it has been cut out of pipeline profits? Then it should be a simple matter to cut them in, in return for ending its relationship with AQ, etc.
Would it have been worth telling the Sheiks to stick their oil up their asses?
how much greater would it have been if the President has declared in his first state of the Union message that it was the goal of the United States to reduce its imports of oil to zero in 10 years. Yes part of the solution would have required more drilling in the United States- but I think reasonable people would have concluded that even with all the drilling we would not be able to meet that goal without alternative energy sources- nuclear solar, wind geo-thermal etc .
I think you may have misunderstood my point or I didn't articulate well enough.
"WE" need that in order to run the massive deficit.
What if we were paying out double digits on treasuries?
How would things be different?
In fairness to Malthus, he - like Keynes - has suffered from those who attached themselves to him after he could no longer respond. Most if not all of them ride his conclusions without knowing or even wishing to know his premises.
What if we were paying out double digits on treasuries?
How would things be different?
Our problems right now are fed by global imbalances - a never-ending asset price bubble driven by people selling us lots more stuff than we sell them, and in return they buy our paper; a hollowing out of our own industries in favor of financial services (which is mostly just more paper-shuffling) etc.
Cutting oil imports sharply would lower the trade imbalance, lower the flow of free money for asset price bubbles, and lower the flow of money to support religious zealots.
My daughter and I went to a used record store today. I found an album that I am going to frame.
It is a recording of the Lonesome Valley Singers playing Country and Western War Songs. Recorded in 1965
A1 Hello Vietnam
A2 Jungle War
A3 Tell the Folks I Miss Em'
A4 I'm Just a Lonesome Soldier
A5 It's All Worth Fighting For
B1 Don't Worry, Just Pray
B2 It's Got to Be Done
B3 What We're Fighting For
B4 Why Doesn't Someone Write to Me
B5 GoodBye Curly Head
The cover has an M-14, a bandolier, etc.
Why frame it? As a reminder that the more things change the more we do the same stupid crap. In 1965 the discontent was just starting to grow.
In fairness to Malthus, he - like Keynes - has suffered from those who attached themselves to him after he could no longer respond.
This sounds right. And those who would like a much smaller global population are not all saying that we will starve if we don't get to that much smaller population. Personally, I'd like a much smaller population so that the margin between the numbers we have and the maximum numbers we can support is enormous - a huge cushion of plenitude. Why? For the same reason I like my indoor temperature in winter a lot higher than the minimum necessary for my survival.
Nova<
Do you have a turntable?
My good friend does and it is always a pleasure to go over and sip three fingers of whiskey over ice while playing some 33 1/3rds.
I just get frustrated by the class attitude here....THEY deserve to be renters.....
Read my name, and make a guess about whether I am referring to THEM or US. And who gets to own a home versus rent is not a stand-alone moral question. Our access to luxuries in life is mostly determined by our contribution to others. And, for the most part, we use earned money to measure and store that contribution. Other systems are possible, but we have seen some bad examples of alternatives in the 20th century.
I think you may have misunderstood my point or I didn't articulate well enough.
"WE" need that in order to run the massive deficit.
I argued that point years ago. With oil priced in $US our government needed oil to be high as a way for other countries (not just OPEC) to keep their reserves of $US high.
And when Saddam started to take something other than $US for oil? Game over for him.
The US went from the USD backed by gold to backed by oil.
I don't think we started this one. We had correct relations with the Taliban before 9 - 11. But they gave sanctuary to people who attacked us. Those people still very much in the region. What are we supposed to do? If we leave what guarantee is there that they'll leave us alone?
Absolutely none...and if you think the current policy will work, maybe you can explain how? Cold turkey seems to work best in quitting heroin.....
We (not that I feel like I had a part in it) botched it, and now it's Pakistan, not Afghanistan, where the action is.....
I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by madness, starving hysterical naked,
dragging themselves through the negro streets at dawn looking for an angry fix;
I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by madness, starving hysterical naked,
dragging themselves through the negro streets at dawn looking for an angry fix;
The best poem of latter half of the 20th century-- Howl, and a great opening.
It is, of course, in the interest of the shareholders to lose less
money rather than more, but it costs money to hire enough
sensible people who know what they are doing and decide
rationally. Devoting money to a money losing department, in
order to lose less, even a lot less, is something they are unable
to wrap their minds around.
First you must admit to a loss. Sounds a little 12 stepish for those still in denial.
Hey, I were that youngster. The babes were indeed topless. The beach was on the roof (next door,) complete with pool. And the lids were only one 'cause the other one was already gone.
America I've given you all and now I'm nothing.
America two dollars and twenty-seven cents January 17, 1956.
I can't stand my own mind.
America when will we end the human war?
Go fuck yourself with your atom bomb
sdtfs wrote:
So was Newton. But I'm still stuck on this planet.
Nice one......RD?
I'm torn between a good Douglas Adams or Douglas Hofstadtler quote and settled on Douglas McCarthur:
"It is part of the general pattern of misguided policy that our country is now geared to an arms economy which was bred in an artificially induced psychosis of war hysteria and nurtured upon an incessant propaganda of fear."
I think the single most important thing we have to do is prevent the top 10 executives in a bank from earning bonuses other than very long dated stock i.e stuff that doesn't vest for at least 10 years. I really don't care whether they earn large salaries (within reason) in fact the larger their base pay and pension the more likely they are to be risk averse.
The second change is that have to stop the dis-intermediation of the banking system. We have demonstrated that in a serious crisis we will not let money markets break the buck. So lets formalize it and make them subject to FDIC oversight, pay an insurance fee. Additionally we should require that any ABS that is purchased by a regulated entity or one subject to ERISA must have a portion of its underlying assets on the books of a bank and be required to keep a minimum equity tranche in the ABS equal to what a bank is required to maintain.
Lastly, I would let bank holding companies set up completely deregulated subsidiaries that would conduct all their trading activities and non traditional banking activities along with a very strong fire wall between the commercial bank and this unregulated subsidiary. Ideally they would be an express law that would prohibit any kind of government aid to these unregulated entities so the market is quite clear that will be no bailout if they get into trouble.
I think these three things would have avoided most of the problem that we have seen. It would effectively break the Fed liquidity stream from the shadow banking system.
Tell the truth, Gnomester. You were that Woodstock concessionaire!
It showed up in 1969, but I can't remember if it was post or pre Woodstock. The Brotherhood brought it in from Belgium, 55 million hits.
To put this in perspective, Owsley made 5 1/2 in his whole career.
It's that time of month, Moody's is definitely on their.
i'll chime in with the obligatory "hoodoodanode"
Thats when the next extremity is taken..not just an ARM but a LEG DOWN too. ugh.
Nice catch JD... I was going to say something about that last line and paying your editorial staff but you beat me to it >; )
---It's almost as if it was planned that way.
and really makes the borrowers into renters
many borrowers are choosing a different option, not making any payment at all.
which turns the borrowers into renters into...Squatters...Freeloaders...?
[The Option ARM] sector shows “dismal” performance, with more than 40% of borrowers 60 or more days past due on payments.
I wouldn't have gone with "dismal" for the adjective, because it really boxes you in. What happens when we get to 50%, or 60%, or 70%?
You guys have GOT to learn to leave yourself a little bit of room before you get to "catastrophic".
For those who were paying attention, this may seem like old news. Here is the man CR [over two years ago. ][]
(CBS/AP) Unilever PLC's U.S. subsidiary says it has recalled all canned Slim-Fast drinks because of the possibility of bacterial contamination that could cause diarrhea, nausea and vomiting.
---That's one way to lose weight.
Does this mean I need to short adjectives?
UFC 86
Mixed financial arts, from the octogone
Dismal Science vs. Dismal Performance
$44.95 pay-per-view
CR - should be "their" not "there"
HomeGnome wrote:
I know people in the food industry and briefly worked there. The FDA and the SEC share similar views on regulation and oversight.
(AP) A judge has threatened to sentence a Tucson man to 25 days in prison for leaving jugs of water in the desert for illegal immigrants.
A federal jury in June convicted Walt Staton of littering in the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge.
In August, a judge ordered Staton to pick up trash for 300 hours and also sentenced him to a year of unsupervised probation and banned him from the refuge for a year.
Man Faces Jail for Giving Immigrants Water - CBS News
---Headline Fail.
Actually on topic-
Looking at the chart, could that big hunk of blue have anything to do with the cost of housing and MHI in California? Did anyone actually think these loans would perform? Come on, this is like first yr econ stuff though it still cheeses me off when I see it
As to the drop out of 22% of Chase's mortgage mods, take a look through the listings on a service like Foreclosure.com and you'll see a sea of houses that gone back to the lender but instead of being processed, they are flagged "in redemption period with lender". I'm seeing this as the borrower just kicking the can down the road a few months. Again "hoodoodanode"
Every time some lame-ass "journalist" or industry shill brings up principal forgiveness I get this sick feeling in my stomach. They just have no idea what will happen if anybody actually opens up that can of worms.
Syrup of ipecac is a lot cheaper and projectile vomiting is so fun to watch.
Segueing to golf.
What if the PGA allowed only the 19 best players on the tour, 5 Mulligans per 18 holes?
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- At least 103 people died and 131 others were hospitalized following a blaze caused by a fireworks display at a nightclub in a Russian city of Perm.
---In response, Russia invades New Zealand.
Didn't Paulson, Bernanke, Geithner, Summers already do that?
Dismal performance in bets isn't your fault.
Ask your doctor if the white pill is the one for you?
Lieagra
Looking at the chart, could that big hunk of blue have anything to do with the cost of housing and MHI in California? Did anyone actually think these loans would perform? Come on, this is like first yr econ stuff.
Still cheeses me off when I see it
Is that a nice stilton or a havarti per chance?
WTF?
Hard to pay the mortgage if you have no job; negative equity or not.
damn you replied and now I can't edit it out LOL So it becomes a psuedo double post.
Home, if it was stilton, at least I could get something out of it nom nom nom >; )
See that blue wave on the right hand side of that chart?
That's the Golden State of denial, about to wash over people like a financial tsunami...
Seems like more of a giant blue PACMAN to me.
Chomp!
Nope it is without a doubt Limburger that's been sitting out for awhile during a hot Atlanta summer.
And if you combine the two?
Soylent bleu?
The FHP accounting department will issue a big phat FAIL for this episode.
One night of investigations...3 patrol cars=Cost in manpower, fuel and equipment.= $1145
One day of sending two patrol cars to TW's house to ask what happened and rejected= $450
Day two 2nd attempt , two patrol cars --rejected. = $450
Day three , Same reject- $450
Four days cost for the taxpayers =your's for only $2495
you have to love goverment
HomeGnome - WTF? Hard to pay the mortgage if you have no job; negative equity or not.
I saw that too, but I think the calling of "free" homesteading for a year+ has a strong allure. While un-employed may have savings, etc that they can draw on.
Those O/As were massively profitable for near a decade for everyone involved. The word was innovative. Heck, those innovative 20% down 30 yr fixed turned out alright despite the obvious danger compared to the 50% 7yr balloon loans of their time. Those 50% 7yr balloons were innovative compared to cash transactions in their time. I just took 70 years of financial innovation to discover the limits.
rob Dawg wrote:
"We see the first dribble in the so called jobs program so misguidedly directed at GovJobs. That's hardly surprising coming from a senior staff with almost no private sector experience."
I am struck by all the "free marketers" who make that comment without realizing its inherent contradiction. On one hand they criticize government intervention as distorting the free market. If the government focuses on creating government jobs that is criticized because they are not private sector jobs. They will then argue that the government should cut taxes- institute the equivalent of a C4C for employers by giving them a tax credit for hiring new employees. Never mind that they criticized the C4C for creating additional demand at very high cost. Doesn't the logic of C4C not apply to new employees.
Bottom line the government has no effective mechanism to create jobs in the private sector- other than preserving the basic infrastructure and the rule of law. (all those who claim that a 7% cut in employee costs by suspending the payroll tax will generate huge hiring have clearly not run a business- in this climate employers are not worried about the 7% they are concerned about the other 93%) If the government wants to create jobs as a matter of social policy ( bad idea to have lots of unemployed people hanging around) or even economic stimulus- the best thing they can do from a free market perspective is to do it through short term government jobs leaving the free market undistorted.
Hey Kahuna, what's brewing?
,czar CR wrote:
What we've done to ourselves this decade, is take life-long renters who had no business buying homes, doing just that.
When you hand over the keys to the front door of a house, to somebody that put down no money down and is essentially a glorified renter, the only thing that's different, is in their minds. a good portion of the hoi ploy mistakenly thinks they 'own' the house, perish the thought process.
A gambler asks for bailout.
Unfortunately, he has not lost nearly enough to qualify.
Had he blown $127 Billion instead of measly $127 Million, Geithner and Bernanke would have gladly cut him a check on the taxpayer behalf
The Gambler Who Blew $127 Million - WSJ.com
LAS VEGAS -- During a year-long gambling binge at the Caesars Palace and Rio casinos in 2007, Terrance Watanabe managed to lose nearly $127 million.
The run is believed to be one of the biggest losing streaks by an individual in Las Vegas history. It devoured much of Mr. Watanabe's personal fortune, he says, which he built up over more than two decades running his family's party-favor import business in Omaha, Neb. It also benefited the two casinos' parent company, Harrah's Entertainment Inc., which derived about 5.6% of its Las Vegas gambling revenue from Mr. Watanabe that year.
Today, Mr. Watanabe and Harrah's are fighting over another issue: whether the casino company bears some of the responsibility for his losses.
In a civil suit filed in Clark County District Court last month, Mr. Watanabe, 52 years old, says casino staff routinely plied him with liquor and pain medication as part of a systematic plan to keep him gambling.
But who is going to get to the investigation quicker?
Union cops or scabs?
Art Eclectic wrote:
True. Yet for cases where even minimal fraud was involved, I do support forced principal reductions. Buyer be aware does not apply in RRE cases, imho, where the seller establishment is too savvy and powerful for the average home buyer, who are often desperate, emotionally and socially, to get into home ownership. Lets get real here, how many of the ARM customers do understand what the deal really is, except that the early payments are doable? Unfortunately the court systems are overloaded. Anyway my 2cents.
Let's see here:
First and last months rent plus security deposit with a good credit history
OR
125% financing with cash back at closing with NO CREDIT CHECK
---Another responsible member of society.
Poor victim.
At work right now for the next 10 hours, then I'm off to the homebrew store to pick up an all grain batch. Still not sure what I'll be making on Sunday. Great way to save some change.
Right now got a mead and an English red brewing in primary.
I'm wondering if any of the legal folks can answer a question: Under what legal principle does "forced principle reduction" occur?
I know it's an emotionally charged question, and I'm not interested in that aspect; I'm genuinely curious about the principles of contract law.
Rob, I just see these as a huge clusterf*ck, always have but then I'm not exactly the trusting type finance and outcomes.
'I just took 70 years of financial innovation to discover the limits."
Please tell me you were standing there like Rodin's Balzac when you said that. seriously superlative >; )
and back to the Pacman image, we need some cheeries and bombs on that chart labeled Chase, BOA, WFC, etc
The Carry Trade?
Yes, I love undistorted free-markets.
Chinese business incubator to open in Atlantic Station | ajc.com
Wage deflation and job losses are so kewl. snark/
So many ARMS to reset, to big to fail.
Kahuna<
Real nice.
I'm going to have to dig into the ApocalypseStash and get a couple of bottles of my orange blossom mead out for Xmas.
Maybe a couple of bottles of Imperial Stout too (11% ABV)!
Force Majeure.
I think the FHP commanding officer should have left the details of the crash to the 'rag mags'
they seem to be pretty darn good at digging in the dirt for profit!
wakka wakka wakka
CHOMP!
California, the state that never saw a tax or regulation it didn't like has made a mockery of itself with spending discipline. I'm sure they will find some way to tax this option ARM problem to bolster their idiocy.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I think the most important question that goes answered is " did the financial innovation cause the economic crisis or did it merely postpone it"
What would the economic trajectory have looked like through the 90's and 2000's if we hadn't had all this financial innovation. I think a good case can be made that aggregate economic activity would have been significantly lower. Remove MEW and its associated multiplier and what would economic activity have looked like. Would the aggregate Federal deficit have been higher or lower than it currently is. My guess is that at where we currently our even with the big declines we are still higher than where we would have been in an alternative scenario (which is why I believe we still have further to do on the downside).
A second question that I think we have to ask is whether the de-regulated financial environment was necessary for financial innovation. I think the evidence for this unambiguous- no we didn't - three very important financial innovation swaps, junk bonds and mortgage securities were all developed in a more regulated environment.
Sorry I missed the BFF festivities but my husband whisked me off to my birthday party last night. Had a great time and even managed to not give myself a hangover. Getting ready for the Gators/Bama game today. My bank was told nicely to merge or die yesterday by OTS. I knew it was coming. Looks like they might be one of the first to go down in 2010.
Feds to Peoples: Find a buyer // Read the OTS document, bank statement | panama, city, florida - News - The News Herald
Actually, if the PITI was almost even with rental parity, I might have given it some thought. But no way was I going to bite on a PITI that even neg adjusted was over 50% of my gross. I guess you have to live here to understand this sort of madness.
JP wrote:
when I have you by the short curly any contract can be renegotiated ?
Seeing the best & brightest financially in a ad hoc Federal Witness Protection Program is par for the course, no?
apparatchica crazyv,
I love it when you talk about kinky sects...
HomeGnome wrote:
Unemployment is less of a problem for these houses than speculation was. Most of these loans were written to people who were basically speculating. Now that their speculative investment isn't going to pay off, they are bailing right and left. It's just a business decision, you know
kristina<
Glad you had a good one.
crazyv wrote:
With the economy not appearing exceedingly healthy
- We would not have had the second Iraq war
- We would not have had Bush 2 tax cuts and probably we would have had a more balanced budget
- We would have to deal with health care issue sooner
- We would have better allocated productive resources (both talent and capital)
At the same time, the amount of consumer goods would have been lower (fewer and smaller cars, TVs, homes)
OT
Globalization and globalism will be under some serious pressure in not too distant future.
India has more children today under 15 than the entire US population!
India to add 220 million to workforce by 2030: RBI
India to add 220 million to workforce by 2030: RBI- Jobs-News By Industry-News-The Economic Times
"and really makes the borrowers into renters"
They were renters to start with - they nominally held title to the home, but they never had any skin in the game.
Art Eclectic wrote:
Sounds like what BK does with other assets.
crazyv wrote:
Excellent. The entirety of our millions of pages of financial regulation can be distilled into answering two questions. Has risk been diminished or merely disaggregated? Has the risk been properly assigned and revealed?
cheers K!
A bartender with a hangover? I love it. I recommend a very hot shower, lots of water, and a large dose of Vit B complex >; )
MrM wrote:
I met him a few years back and a relative worked for him before he sold his business - he was always a bit out there - never could tell if it was booze, drugs, or just a personality disorder - maybe all three
Tom Stone wrote:
Thanks Tom.
I remember the shame of the neighborhood was 3 doors down from us. They had declared bankruptcy, and the neighborhood was aghast that such a thing could happen in this day and age, 1968.
Flash-forward to today, and a good portion of the commercials on tv, tell you how you can evade your debts in some fashion or another by declaring bankruptcy...
crazyv wrote:
Certainly true, but I had the sense that a higher principle than my short curlies were involved.
Deflationary Jane wrote:
They thought the mortgages would perform by selling or refinancing to a bigger fool. In case it all came crashing down, the portfolio was mostly securitized.
Back in the day, these loans had a really short expected life, and the lenders were usually right.
Reread, I said I did NOT have one. I paced myself and even turned down shots my boss offered me. I drink White Russians so shots seemed unnecessary. The B complex is great though. I drink Glaceau Vitamin Water the "Revive" Fruit Punch flavored one. It has all the B's and a load of Potassium in it. The stuff is a miracle hangover cure. I recommend it to all my customers lol...
Mayor: Obama Purposely Blocked "Peanuts" - CBS News
snip/
According to the newspaper, the mayor's first posting read, "Ok, so, this is total crap, we sit the kids down to watch 'The Charlie Brown Christmas Special' and our muslim president is there, what a load.....try to convince me that wasn't done on purpose. Ask the man if he believes that Jesus Christ is the Son of God and he will give you a 10 minute disertation (sic) about it....w...hen the answer should simply be 'yes'...."
In another posting Wiseman attacked the President, his supporters and Muslims, by saying "...you obama people need to move to a muslim country...oh wait, that's America....pitiful."
---Bwahahahahahahahaha!
Mayor Russell Wiseman you're a blockhead.
SNAFU wrote:
Yeah, I get that and agree on the outright fraud. The problem thought will be how do you prove the fraud? Once somebody does one principal reduction the line will stretch around the globe of people wanting one, which will set off a whole new game of fraud and the race will be on. Once J6P down the street gets a reduction, that resets the comps in the neighborhood lower and suddenly all his neighbors want one, too. When you put in a "hardship" exemption, it becomes suddenly amazing how many people have "hardship."
Once they start with principal forgiveness, it won't stop until every homeowner with a mortgage gets one.
A statement of the obvious, but it's at least on point:
Why Loan Mods Fail | The Big Picture
I recommend a very hot shower, lots of water, and a large dose of Vit B complex >; )
Lots of Vit C as well. I survived a Georgian banquet that way. Brandy in water tumblers - many of them. The water is important to re-hydrate. You will have to get up many times during the night, but it's worth it. There was hangover the next morning.
edit: no hangover.
JP wrote:
Bankruptcy is one of them.
I missed the loan mod thread but I notice the banks are trying to say people are not submitting the required documents...Hmmmm I've submitted mine over and over and over...They are in CYA mode because they are simply NOT doing the mods. They've had my documents for months. They've lost them, found them, lost them....In short they are full of shit.
Looking at that big blue slice belonging to California all I can think about is "government cheese."
We are in u r cheez wheel eating u r tax dollars.
dum luk wrote:
Filled in some gaps in my understanding of how it is done.
Sounds like a cadaver in a busy ED.
Found 3 weeks later outside radiology.
The DWR (Department of Water Resources) has announced that preliminary allocations of water are 5%, for 2010.
You can see what a mess California is in financially, but the real disaster is looming underfoot.
A double-header of doom
Comrade Kristina wrote:
The principle you are describing is; "Not liking the answer is not the same as not having the answer."
I sit corrected >; )
Then I still suggest all the above, just add sex >; )
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Nothing to do with needing to pass a $11b water bond no does it? BTW, and this is very important. In the interests of full disclosure; "I have no political or financial interests in either this bond, or any of the projects proposed and derive no income from any aspect of California water issues." [Your turn.]
Crazy storm coming California's way...
The first punch Sunday-Monday is wickedly cold (snow down to 1,000 feet) and maybe 1/2 an inch or so, storm #2 rolls in on Wednesday-Thursday, but it's the pineapple-express flavor flav, and it rains heavily up to 7,000 feet.
JD; Watch the temps at around 750-800mb..could be ice storm material for the later system.
,rad Dawgma,
It's a preliminary estimate, which tends to be on the low side. Last year, they announced 15%, and the allocations ended up being 40%, so using the same scale, one would expect 20% this year, no?
a simple formula for the morning after: y
ou're entitled to sleep in until the hour is ≥ the number of drinks you had. use military time where appropriate.
Interesting post on Naked Cap about an IB in Texas pissed off about a teacher in a pvt HS dissing IB's. The guy is trying to get the teacher and the school admin fired. So much for academic freedon.
“Barclays banker Hugh McGee wants son’s teacher fired for ’sleazeball’ comment” « naked capitalism
So now I understand this
FEMA lets Natomas residents renew preferred-rate policies - Sacramento Business, Housing Market News | Sacramento Bee
Vemonters are hungry for snow BTW, no accumulate yet and the record breaker date for late accumulating is now in sight. We've had snizzles. The ski people are doing some mighty hand-wringing as last week was too freaking warm for No.VT.
apparatchica N-N,
It's the worst kind of storm, because it will snow in the recently burned 250,000 acres above the City of Angles, and then when the pineapple-express shows up, all that snow melts off...
oh crap, landslide time.
This has been a strange year weather related all around. We maybe a continent away but strange stuff happening here too, El Nino perhaps. Edit to add: I saw a Monarch butterfly caterpillar last week...too strange.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Or as the Dude refers to his favorite beverage, Caucasians.
JP wrote:
When I went through my bank credit training (during the dark ages) the first lesson they taught us was "lend to a thief and you are going to get stolen from" and the first principle of contract law is as I said - "when they have you by the short and curly there is no higher principle at work".
really sad about that fire... Newcombs Ranch burned down...Mill creek ranger station torched.
All the places I remember from hiking the Pacific Crest Trail this summer in that section are fired. I hope it does'nt get that bad with erosion issues.
James Grant Mourns the Loss of the Gold Standard - WSJ.com
Truth to be told, I didn't know exactly what a OA loan was till 2006.
I was brought up in 'if you can't put 10% down and amortize the principal over no more than 30 years YOU CAN NOT AFFORD IT' world. Where I got my education was when I first started looking at beach houses on the outer banks of NC. On five house I asked for all rental income and expenses for prior 3 years. Roughly, expenses ran 10% on a 700K house (assuming 100% loan amortized 30 years) with income 30 -35K. Notwithstanding tax advantages, I was looking at least a 35K negative cashflow on a house that I could use only deep offseason. But the listing RE agent for each property would use OA and IO as 'best cashflow' financing to make the numbers more palatable (not one showed financing using amortization). I told the agent this was crazy and would wait until the houses fell 50%. She gently explained to me that she had worked the market for 20 years and assured me that prices DON'T GO DOWN. I said 'we'll see about that'.
It really drove home the point that OA's increased prices. If two people of equal means are bidding on a house and one is willing to go the OA route and the other only a more traditional route, the OA bidder will win every time.
Prices have since corrected to point that by next year I should be able to pick up a house (foreclosure, of course) at 50% off of 2006 pricing.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Yup but not until after the vote right? For the record: "I have no political or financial interests in either this bond, or any of the projects proposed and derive no income from any aspect of California water issues." [Your turn.]
El Nino is strengthening and this looks like a normal ± year at worst despite the silly 5% projection. If they push too hard on Federal delivery numbers they could find themselves in a wheeling war where the customers refuse anything more than the 5% forcing a cash crisis and leaving them no place to dump the water without looking foolish. It won't get to that but nobody believes the 5% either.
,rad Rally Monkey,
I've walked up to Mt Waterman perhaps a dozen times, I wonder what it looks like now?
MrM wrote:
Mr M.
I don't disagree with any of your conclusion BTW. The comport entirely with my belief that the financial crisis was the consequence not the cause of economic problems. I consequently find all this happy talk about the economy completely misplaced because it fails to acknowledge the rot that existed before the financial crisis. I kind find one thing that we have done in the last 15 months that reverses the trajectory prior to the economic crisis.
My point is a much bigger one - if we just limit ourselves to vilifying bankers ( however much they deserve it) we don't deal with the cause only the symptom.
black dog wrote:
the option arms race -- it's MAD
,rad Dawgma,
I don't think your mind can wrap itself around the water war that's coming, I hope you aren't one of the 25 million people in the state that depend on water from somewhere else, far far away.
That chart is amazing, I didn't think it possible for Cali to take up more than 50% of Option ARMs. I wonder if it would be possible to ban rentals of SFH to lower the equilibrium levels.
Lots of Tenants Players with crummy serves, in California.
there were many sections of the PCT that have had extensive burns...
Some areas still need a burn.
For the most part though, a few seasons after a fire can be the most stunning, with the wildflowers starting to grow first.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I'm more concerned about how much you stand to gain from starting that war Mr. Hearst.
In the interests of full disclosure; "I have no political or financial interests in either this bond, or any of the projects proposed and derive no income from any aspect of California water issues." [Your turn.]
JD: Thats been on its way for sometime now. Its also a problem in the SE US and increasingly so. Idiots had BOOM growth in populations and did nothing to increase water infrastructure. The past 5 years were horrific, even going back in the '90s when I was living there, water restrictions just a matter of when, not if, every summer. GA was underwater this year as it appears to be a feast or famine state.
Very true... wait until all these borrowers have to pay even 1 or 2 percent more for their major loans such as mortgages... and an additional 5% on the credit card balances... We may have seen the worst of the institutional crisis, but certainly not for the individual investor.
There's an awesome place called Willettt Hot Springs, just off the Sespe River, a 10 mile walk to a 105 degree tub, from Piedra Blanca trailhead, and the Day Fire took out wide swaths of brush and trees (must have been hot, we saw leftover stumps of 4 inch wide trees) and the trail used to be a dirt road where you could drive to the hot springs until the early 1970's, and there must have been 300 vintage beer cans and bottles along the trail, that were formerly hidden in the bush...
Banks Take Losses on Short Sales as Foreclosures Soar (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
" December 5, 2009
China’s decision makers met in Beijing Dec. 5 at the Central Economic Work Conference to set policies for 2010, Xinhua reported. They aim to deal with the effects of the global financial crisis and cement the foundation for China’s economic recovery. Analysts with the government think tank Development Research Center of the State Council said dealing with further fallout from the international financial crisis remains a major task for China in the year ahead."
Dr. Stock: This is an article going back to October of this year:
Of course Citi isn't alone and this was partially in response to the legislation aimed at preventing just this sort of behavior. The real mind blower is how much the US taxpayer owns of these and other such fine outstanding companies who still are for all practical purposes, insolvent.
Why Citibank Is Going Crazy Cutting Customer Credit Cards (C)
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Houston just got a dose of that yesterday...heavy snow at times but didn't stick, then cold enough to ice up a bit overnight (and I call heavy snow with 12 years in Alaska - it was wild to see)
"Negative equity is a key driver of weak performance — as well as a more predictive measure of default than unemployment — particularly among Option ARMs."
And what's the best predictor of negative equity when the loan is originally underwritten? Down payment amount, of course. And how have the PTB responded to all this? By lowering down payment requirements to way less than 20% for vast numbers of new buyers.
There is no evidence that the PTB are trying to cure the underlying problem with housing finance.
oho that is at Kinkaid, which is one of the tonier private schools in Houston...though McGee seems to be doing his zen best to prove the teacher right
Here's more dismal performance from another pretender Pres. in succession from JFK who is afraid to buck the MIC.
IMHO Obama has blown his best chance to be a truly great President
by Lepanto on Fri Dec 04, 2009 at 12:34:07 PM PST
Daily Kos: State of the Nation
He had the chance of remolding our foreign policy so that it doesn't automatically have a knee-jerk recourse to violence, to further war-waging, so as to solve all problems. Instead he opted for escalation, for more war, for more of the same. And now he's trapped into a cicle of escalation after escalation, always promising light at the end of the tunnel, always chasing an illusory Victory in an unwinnable war.
So much for Hope and Change.
Yep, he's blown it.
Sad.
We're shocked by a naked nipple, but not by naked aggression.
He blew that when he appointed his cabinet:
by obiterdictum on Fri Dec 04, 2009 at 01:29:51 PM PST
Daily Kos: State of the Nation
Rahm to run his White House, the boys from Goldman Sachs to finish looting the economy, the boys from Monsanto to oversee food safety and agriculture. He blew it when he made a secret deal with the pharmaceutical companies and took single-payer off the table. He blew it when he retained Cheney's generals and policies to drive us into yet another endless war - a war that will only benefit Blackwater, Halliburton, and whoever makes the drones that are killing civilians (and inspiring another generation of terrorists) in Pakistan.
He blew it whenever it was that he agreed to do whatever he had to do, make whatever deals he had to make, tell whatever lies would work, follow whatever directives he receives from the Wall Street/military/corporate establishment that will only protect him from assassination so long as he is useful.
So he will make artfully disingenuous speeches and follow orders: no matter how savage or repugnant, no matter how unwise, no matter how unconstitutional, no matter how utterly devoid of the lessons of logic, math, history, and common sense.
We don't need a third party. We need a second party.
The Unabankers have excelled at being their own worst enemy lately, gotta give 'em props for that.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
All the best range wars in the West were over water...
Next year, employers likely to see surge in people quitting | McClatchy
politics - such an utter waste of time. As if it mattered which party holds office. It's the people who pay for the political office who run things not the officeholders - wake the freak up !!!
Nice politoon on the same page: http://media.mcclatchydc.com/smedia/2009/12/04/11/12042009Morin.slideshow_main.prod_affiliate.91.jpg
That fire reminds me of the Station nightclub fire which killed over 100 people:
The Station nightclub fire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Standard Cal. weather pattern. I remember driving thru Big Sur years back....you couldn't see the burn, it was waay up in the hills, but you sure could see the houses rolled down the creek.....
Instead of open prairies and bovines, we have overwrought cities and 40 million or so human beans on the range...
He had the chance of remolding our foreign policy so that it doesn't automatically have a knee-jerk recourse to violence, to further war-waging, so as to solve all problems.
I have to disagree here. I think his response to the situation in Afghanistan was measured and rational. That's not to say that I know whether or not the war is 'winnable'. Nor do I like the idea of many US units pinned down for some years on that front. Still, the idea of unconditional withdrawal is a non-starter. That would initiate a rolling disaster.
Is a Loan Modification Just Another Exotic Mortgage? - Developments - WSJ
Mayor Russell Wiseman you're a blockhead.
Wiseman is defending Christmas. Do you see the irony here?
Liesman speaking from the White House.
A US senator (or is it a rep) whose last name is Whitehouse.
Made-off.
This name thing is starting to weird me out.
That fire reminds me of the Station nightclub fire which killed over 100 people:
It seems that my intuition was wrong on that fire in Perm, at least according to reports. But when I read that the minister of emergency situations, Shoigu, was on his way to Perm, it set off my own personal alarms. But reports say that the investigation is being carried out by local police authorities.
The principle of extortion. If you don't do this we will do that to you.
Real Clear Politics takes the average of various polls. O first fell below 50% approval 10 days ago. Yesterdays average sitting at 49.3% approval - O's lowest (so far).
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval
,rad pavel,
Would you rather have the financiers initiate rolling disaster?
Sooner rather than later, we are going to have to face the music and swallow that jagged little pill.
You left out the AZ Congressman named "Flake". He lives up to his name too.
energyecon wrote:
Whiskey's fer drinkin' and all that. Besides I bet you don't have an undisclosed interest in the the fight. The "water war" is going to be much like the finance wars we are fighting now. The people supposed to represent us and protect the public are now part of the problem.
Is a Loan Modification Just Another Exotic Mortgage?
If you have to ask ...
Ha! I was just about to post that link Dawg
"by Lepanto *
Speaking of the irony of names, how about someone with the handle Lepanto writing that we should not engage Islamic forces in Afghanistan.
Don Juan of Austria at Lepanto.
,rad Dawgma,
I have a very vested interest in water, and can't go 3 days without drinking about it.
Happy belated b'day, Kristina.
Our local news did a segment on how the loan mod process is hurting people - used one example of the overwhelmed servicer telling the homeowner to miss a payment or 2 to qualify. That didn't work out so well. Etc. Looks like you are not alone on that road.
",rad pavel,
Would you rather have the financiers initiate rolling disaster?"
No, JD. But do we have to choose between which disasters we must suffer?
Which one is the zero-sum game?
Rob Dawg wrote:
FD: No financial interests there, though I do have relatives living in state, from the OC to Placerville and points in between...their interests are all solely as residents and taxpayers.
Which one is the zero-sum game?
Everyone is in this game together.
Isaiah 9,2 - 7.
Jeff Flake's politics might not be my cup of tea, but he's as straight a shooter that you're gonna get.
Hahahahahahahahahah
energyecon wrote:
That makes two of us so far, and only two of us if you get my drift. Speaking of the left coast and on topic I see all those O/As as being long dated options with an initial period of no time decay. When those hit recast I don't see hardly any of them remaining in the performing category. Some will expire worthless and those will be lucky ones.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
My younger years were in Ojai, and I backpacked the area frequently.
Southern California is not even remotely survivable, with water being only one of the issues.
It is the machete mostpih action that has me freighted for friends and family.
,rad pavel,
We are going to send 30,000 more people (read: 90,000 more, 2 Xe's or Haliburtons for every g.i.) into a meatgrinder for seemingly no purpose whatsoever, as we are leaving in 2011.
Sadly, our only industry that isn't flat on it's face, is the military industrial complex, our last bastion of profit.
A year? A year is nothing. You have to get to 2 1/2 years
free living before I get impressed.
My pal the appraiser hasn't paid in 2 years 3 months. He
didn't hire me. All he did was hide from the process server. He
doesn't plan to modify; he'd have to get a 100k cramdown, and
ignore the 2nd (which is being ignored anyway) for it to make
any financial sense.
the MIC is last bastion for keeping US $ reserves of countries at a high enough level and for them to continue to buy our T notes & bonds. Otherwise it's no longer drip, drip, drip but a tsunami to biggest banana republic in the world !
",rad pavel,
We are going to send 30,000 more people (read: 90,000 more, 2 Xe's or Haliburtons for every g.i.) into a meatgrinder for seemingly no purpose whatsoever, as we are leaving in 2011.
Sadly, our only industry that isn't flat on it's face, is the military industrial complex, our last bastion of profit. "
JD, I'm not a war lover. I just don't think there is a choice here. Nor do I believe that if we simply pick up and go we won't have to fight again either there, or elsewhere.
Easy for me to say, right? I'm much too old to have to put myself at physical risk now. I know it. And I know there will be personal tragedy. It's hateful and sorrowful, but I don't think there's a way around it.
Don't say that to the gold bugs, day traders and equities market, that's like yelling FIRE in a movie-house.
patientrenter wrote:
Follow the logic here....it's ok if home values plummet, as long as the buyers put in 20%, because then it's their money that goes up in smoke, not the banks.
As So Cal unravels from the 1-2 punch of lack of water and money, i'll be glimpsing the show-not unlike Pliny the Elder did, watching Vesuvius do it's thing, from a fair distance.
adornosghost wrote:
GPS: N 34 35.680, W 118 59.870
Anyway, I get confused over the SoCal is unsustainable meme. Repetition is not evidence. In what way is SoCal more unsustainable than any other metroplex? I imagine places like Portland or Omaha would do much better in a general collapse but that's a size issue. If the electric grid were to go down right now in December I'd rather be here than anywhere in BosWash.
...not unlike Pliny the Elder did, watching Vesuvius do it's thing, from a fair distance.
He died in that eruption, no?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Oh, Pavel....sigh. It's really not much different from the "let 'em go BK" vs. "extend & pretend". Both stink to high heaven.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
He died in the eruption. Much like Vesuvius the safe distance is a lot further than nearly everyone imagines.
We just got in a 3 DVD series "The Complete Story World War 1" narrated by Robert Ryan, 3 hours or so of vintage WW1 film. Much of it i've never seen before, and the Austrian-Italian front was the worst of many worlds, heavy casualties @ high altitude, clips showed dozens of men dragging up ever larger cannons up a steep snow-slopes, a never-ending war as they all are.
Austrians & Italians get along alright nowadays?
It's been 34 years since we left Vietnam, disgraced. But, I could fly there tomorrow if I wanted to.
justaskin wrote:
justaskin, prices are still way too high. Requiring 20% downpayments would force them to reset very quickly. After that point, prices would be equally likely to go down or up. If prices go up, who gets to keep most of the gains? That same person should get to keep most of the losses if prices go down instead. If they aren't ready for that bargain, then they are not ready to buy the asset. There are plenty of rentals.
So, I might have a fatal heart attack in the midst of, shit happens?
,rad Dawgma,
Where does your water come from, when you turn on the faucet?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Dawg- SoCal was Eden without the snakes in the 1950's and even part of the 60s. I grew up there surfing, living on the beach fro practically nothing, etc- I think you get the picture.
However, with an intact ecosystem, the LA basin can support about 100,000 people, without huge inputs of food and water, that are coming under increasing pressure from resource and infrastructure constrains, and the system is fragile, and based on a climate period anomaly.
The Ethic hostility in LA is above average, and as jobs, food, water become scarce, people who have grown up on computer games will just take what they can. Things will go down hill from there.
The only question, is how this will unravel.
Requiring 20% downpayments
Does that come with marble coutertops and wolf ranges?
Ah, hah, what I've been saying--there was no mechanism in place
to allow an employee to decide to lose money.
After 3 years it is begining to dawn? The banks live on Mars time? Or
perhaps Pluto years.
Everyone else knows real estate is 'way down in value, why not
banks? Oh, and short sales are really cramdowns to a 3rd party.
Several foreclosees are planning to buy a new house if they are
ever kicked out of the old one, using a spouse or parent's credit.
The depth and breadth of stupidity of the banks is still breathe-taking.
adornosghost wrote:
Overpopulation. The big global problem that we cannot even acknowledge in polite company.
Daily Kos: Obama touts jobs report, looks ahead in weekly address
Good thread comments - more and more people are getting sick and tired of his rhetoric and
patientrenter wrote:
Of course we can, we are overpopulated by at least 6 billion humans who are here because we won the energy lottery when we discovered fossil fuels.
The last time we lived on a truly solar economy was 1700, and the planet had 1 billion people, with oceans full of fish, and several continents to plunder.
lawyerliz wrote:
No it was rational behavior and still is. Many people made a great deal of money.
Oh, Pavel....sigh. It's really not much different from the "let 'em go BK" vs. "extend & pretend". Both stink to high heaven.
Justaskin, if you think withdrawing cold would work better, please explain how,
Some years ago a retired Special Forces colonel with a distinguished combat record said to me: I think anyone who starts a war ought to be put on trial.
He wasn't a war lover either.
I don't think we started this one. We had correct relations with the Taliban before 9 - 11. But they gave sanctuary to people who attacked us. Those people still very much in the region. What are we supposed to do? If we leave what guarantee is there that they'll leave us alone?
The banks always have the option, if they don't like the ones presented to them, of foreclosing and following that path. I have zero sympathy for them.
I think one of the famous Plinys died and one didn't.
I think the younger survived and described a pryroclastic flow
for the first time.
Gold: The amazing series of upside gaps got filled yesterday. For traders, many newbies and confidents just got baptized on the meaning of leverage.. buh bye.
The price will descend further, though I dunnot like it as I added at 1179 to LT position. Big buying oppty is coming up.
More gap retracement work to do on the downside. And then at 1045 if we're lucky to see it, diving head to toe into gold for the ride to The Great Doubling. That should be when others are fleeing because they'll be convinced the rise is over. Ask the MSM and many here. Yes, for you, the rise that never benefited you will be ending... probably after the USD is a pile of rungs lower than where it's at.
It's just so damn uncomfortable to see the profits vanish; must be like owning property bought in 04 and 05, only this loss is temporary and those RE albatross jewelry wearers had beeter embrace the US Govt and FedRes or else they'll be wearing another few bracelets tossed around their necks. They couldn't add, and still can't. 2+2=4.
Rahm Emmanuel is smart; so I'm giving the WHouse a seat at my pensational table. But the game can't restart unless everyone thinks it's really over, imo.
And as to wiseacre replies, screw off; do it your way; best to y'a. Tell the world what you do, not what is incomprehensible to you.
Y'a see, in my older age, I'll hang at the surf, when it's warm, and party without concern for a thing. Oh, wait, I do that now. Not. It was such a bore; only my dog was happy. Oh yes, the bitch was very happy playing around and doing nothing.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
What could possibly be any guarantee? There is only one "guarantee" and you wouldn't want to do that.
tg wrote:
It was rational behavior by the employees of the banks - they were just responding to the financial incentives that were presented to them. As long as you don't change the environment that they operate under you will continue to get the same results. Case in point what is the average tenure of an employee at major bank today compare that with what it was 35 years ago? If you are only going to be around for a 4-5 years why not role the dice today. If there is a 1/6 chance of your blowing up there is a good chance that you will spend you tenure just being a winner- which means that you get a higher offer on your next move.
I would add the current system also gives rise to a perverse survivor bias. The trader who doesn't blow up in the first year gets higher limits. The longer he avoids a blow up the higher his limits. So when he finally blows up (as all traders will at some point in their careers) they will do it with the highest limits they have had.
Only 40% two months behind? That's not too worrying. I am confident that almost all those people can get current at some point without any losses having to be taken by anyone. [/sarcasm]
pavel<
With all respect due to you sir; most of the hijackers were from Saudi Arabia.
What if they'd been from NY or LA?
Do "we" bomb Chicago?
km4 wrote:
so well put !
Okay, fine. So what's wrong with giving the American people a reasonable estimate of the range of probable costs to continue waging the war in Afghanistan, from here to conclusion?
Along with this estimated range, you could tack on: "It is very highly probable that all war costs will be financed with borrowed money, and this estimate does not include interest costs of new debt."
What's wrong with telling Americans that it's very likely tax increases will have to be considered to pay the costs?
Puts the whole argument in a different light, no?
Obama was supposed to be the new transparent truth-teller President.
tg wrote:
Exactly what I said above:
Those O/As were massively profitable for near a decade for everyone involved. The word was innovative. Heck, those innovative 20% down 30 yr fixed turned out alright despite the obvious danger compared to the 50% 7yr balloon loans of their time. Those 50% 7yr balloons were innovative compared to cash transactions in their time. It just took 70 years of financial innovation to discover the limits.
We need to compensate these transactions on ultimate performance not mere execution.
Hank Paulson hands a two page 'tarp' bill to Congress and threatens disaster, and he gets all he wants, and more, with Geithner continuing that 'you need cash now!' method for the banks and the Street.
But when it comes to Main Street, things 'have to work slowly?' .....The issue is that Congress and this White House are totally indifferent to the plight of the American worker and small business owner.
Until we clean out Congress, and I must say, put someone who respects the American people into the White House, we will see more of what we're getting now, and it's totally unacceptable.
by quantumspin
Yup I agree !
Yes, yes, yes!!!
Agreed, Dawg.
don't look at me, I got rid my physical silver and a little gold on Thursday. I'm still happy.
But then I'm still happy I didn't buy a house from 02 to now and sold my AAPL in late July >; )
You mean Pliny the Younger. Pliny the Elder died in the volcano.
Why do so many people screw up the Plinies? There's only two, one elder and one younger.
Has anyone seen the unemployment numbers adjusted by the huge under-the-table employment game now in full sway?
At the bank yesterday in line, the young man, around 22 or so, was regaling a high school friend about their classmates and himself. At least 2 are full time employed in the cash game while receiving unemployment. As he said, "Sweet. It's all good."
The UI game is broken. There's a pretty active community of non taxpayers generating hand to mouth incomes.
crazyv wrote:
Yes.
What could possibly be any guarantee? There is only one "guarantee" and you wouldn't want to do that.
Correct.
patientrenter wrote:
Ain't that the truth. As California's budget problems worsen, they are going to have to start cutting back on services to the low-income population. There are riots in our future.
Okay, fine. So what's wrong with giving the American people a reasonable estimate of the range of probable costs to continue waging the war in Afghanistan, from here to conclusion?
In my opinion, nothing wrong with it.
I saw a man crying to himself on Metro last night as I was coming home.
Today I died. Yes, it hurt. I thought I had the bleeding under control. I didn’t. Standing there, wedged against the door because of the crowd, I lost it again. Not noticeably I think. Not that it matters. They were strangers. Hell, they all had jobs probably. I no longer did. If anyone did look, all they saw was a white guy in a suit massaging his face and forehead. The blood welling in my eyes, running down my face, covered and then wiped away by my hands.
“It’s over. It’s over. It’s over” was running through my head in a continuous loop. Not “over” as in the job was over. This was “over” as in end of game over. I had run the numbers enough times, listened to enough stories to know. The bitter and most painful part was my age. I had come back from bad times before. I knew what had to be done. I also knew at 56 I was not going to get the chance.
Just as well, because deep down inside I knew I didn’t have it anymore. The drive, the passion, the energy, it just wasn’t there. I was good at what I did. So were a lot of the people who were a lot younger and cheaper. It was over. No way was our ship going to make it to far shore. Without my job to drive it, well, we were going down. The fear, the sense of failure, the knowledge that the pain had only started, especially, and this is what hurt the most, the knowledge that this was it, that for all of my life, this was going to be the high water mark. That ripped through me like German steel.
patientrenter wrote:
Mother will solve it for us...or we get another global intramural scrimmage going...but it ain't going to be pretty. Put these two papers together and it just looks fugly unless we can open up the bottle one way or another:
Sat down to lunch yesterday with a reservoir engineer (20+ years experience) who said he thought the technical work was solid and generally agreed with the conclusions regarding the IEA oil production forecast:
http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/PeakOilAge.pdf
Then there is this paper, which is elegant in its approach to modelling the global economy as a heat engine, with GDP as a function of energy consumption:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/9476j57g1t07vhn2/fulltext.pdf
From Garrett's conclusion:
Deflationary Jane wrote:
From my blog a month ago:
Feb '06 median Ventura County home: $680k Price of gold: $560/oz. Median home price in gold: 1214 ounces.
Oct '09 median Ventura county home: $419k Price of gold: $1000 Median home price in gold: 419 ounces.
Value today [Nov 09] of the gold you bought in 2006 after selling your house: $1,214,000.
Don't talk to me bout AAPL. I was waiting for an entre below $85. My fault for timing the bottom.
crazyv wrote:
Though I can't speak for her, I think lawyerliz's point has been that they weren't and, so far, aren't even doing that.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Yes, and btw you said it much more eloquently.
I think the younger was watching from a ship and the elder
went ashore.
Is the plural of Pliny Plinies?
I don't think you can stand back from this disaster unless you get
off the planet entirely.
A prospective new foreclosure defendee. For some reason I was
suspicious. I did a little computer check on the public records.
The client wasn't the original borrower. Juan bought from Shakey
hand and signed the mortgage. El cliento nuevo got a quit claim deed
dated the same day as the mtg, but not filed until several months
later. The title company, who supposedly represented the lender
prepared the quit claim deed.
Sigh. No one will care about this situation.
And values have gone down for the sneaky and the not-so-sneaky.
I wrote about this before.
Several times.
You can't survive on unemployment and you can't
survive on what you can pick up under the table alone.
What do you expect people to do?
"pavel<
With all respect due to you sir; most of the hijackers were from Saudi Arabia.
What if they'd been from NY or LA?
Do "we" bomb Chicago?"
HomeGnome, they weren't given sanctuary in Saudi Arabia. Their headquarters weren't in Saudi Arabia.
If it were possibly to resolve this problem without fighting, I would be completely in favor of it.
At civilization’s core there is a single constant factor, λ = 9.7 ± 0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 dollar, that ties the global economy to simple physical principles. Viewed from this perspective, civilization evolves in a spontaneous feedback loop maintained only by energy consumption and incorporation of environmental matter.
What about the extremely complex inter-relationships of human economies, cultures and the biosphere plus the physical properties of the planet?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Correct on the facts, as always, Pavel. But look at what is going on: Saudis send the money to Pakistan, a nuclear power we cannot apply force to. There, under the nuclear umbrella, the money is used to nurture and support a flow of new jihadists from the local areas, from Afghanistan, and from around the world.
lawyerliz wrote:
Liz, not so fast. This is a meteor swarm. People falling down dead others next to them untouched. Think "Lathe of Heaven" not "The Liberation of Earth." We are going to get through this. Strangely all we a fighting over now is whether 10% take a 80% hit or 80% take a 20% hit.
Like this:
December 5, 2009
Iran urged Switzerland not to enforce a ban on the building of new mosque minarets and warned of “consequences” if Bern did not comply, IRNA reported Dec. 5. The ban was backed by more than 57% of voters in a Nov. 29 referendum. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki reportedly said the vote went against Switzerland’s claims that it advocates democracy and human rights.
I don't buy the "official story" as you do.
Seems like a pipeline dream to me.
What if they feel exactly the same way?
My point was that for years there has been no human being at
a bank who was anything but punished for making a decision to
lose less money rather than more money. From top to bottom.
It is, of course, in the interest of the shareholders to lose less
money rather than more, but it costs money to hire enough
sensible people who know what they are doing and decide
rationally. Devoting money to a money losing department, in
order to lose less, even a lot less, is something they are unable
to wrap their minds around.
*Correct on the facts, as always, Pavel. *
I'd hate to have to live up to that, Patientrenter. : )
Saudis send the money to Pakistan, a nuclear power we cannot apply force to. There, under the nuclear umbrella, the money is used to nurture and support a flow of new jihadists from the local areas, from Afghanistan, and from around the world.
Yes, I agree, it's a very complex and difficult situation.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
But you can cut through that Gordian knot of complexity, and get an almost perfect solution, by simply assuming that human beings will always reproduce to the point where it hurts. They cannot seem, as a whole, to stay well within the limits of what is supportable. I'd guess that 500 million would be an enormously more supportable global human population, but we're over 10 times that number now.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
I think that is the +/- 0.3 mW, pavel
Seriously though, if those factors result in a decrease in energy consumption, there would be a corresponding decrease in the global GDP as measured in constant 1990 dollars. That isn't the big takeaway for me, it is the impact on civilization, which is at its most basic comprised of people and stuff...and has had an expanding interface extracting and consuming material resources growing at an exponential rate in a finite container.
I have read on here that there was a global disaster (volcano?) about
70k years ago, which killed all but a very few. I guess the only ones
who survived were the ones who bred like rabbits. Most animals reproduce
until they reach peak capacity. It would be nice to think we could do better,
but we don't.
We just had the Vesuvius exhibit here at LA County Museum of Art. Pliny the Elder's body was found intact and unharmed at an (apparently) safe vantage point. He's presumed to have died of a heart attack, though other causes are possible. Pliny the Younger is the one who survived and documented the event.
energyecon wrote:
You have stated the problem.
I bought in March but only enough that I could afford to lose. By June, I was thinking "better sell 'cause this is stupid". I stayed until late July and then full stopped out of everything. As Popeye used to say, you gotta take the profits sometime and I did biting my fingernails the entire time.
I did learn that I don't have the nerves to be a trader. Between that March to July run and shorting HB back in the day, I must have had a PB over 150/110 for the duration.
The little gold and ton of silver were my version of digging under the cushions, it was all casting grain and wire. Still 102 oz of silver was nice to get rid of.
What if they feel exactly the same way?
If they do, there should be no problem, as long as their solution can meet our solution in important ways. I think, preeminently, no sanctuary for Al-Qaeda. And then, no overthrow of the present political system in Pakistan. No violent overthrow of the government in Kabul.
Mike, thanks - posted on my wireless - and I have a heard time proofing the post (my only excuse). At least it lets me get outside!
best wishes
...and has had an expanding interface extracting and consuming material resources growing at an exponential rate in a finite container.
And it can't go on that way. I believe that too.
lawyerliz wrote:
Fixed it.
Off to meet the hydrologist, keep those O/A and HAMP horror stories coming CR >; )
pavel<
Fourth generation warfare - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A "terrorist" could possibly be anywhere or anyone.
The origins of al-Qaeda as a network inspiring terrorism around the world and training operatives can be traced to the Soviet war in Afghanistan.[29] The United States viewed the conflict in Afghanistan, with the Afghan Marxists and allied Soviet troops on one side and the native Afghan mujahideen on the other, as a blatant case of Soviet expansionism and aggression. The U.S. channelled funds through Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency to the native Afghan mujahedeen fighting the Soviet occupation in a CIA program called Operation Cyclone.[30][31]
Al-Qaeda - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
---I guess this was a pretty stupid idea.
nanoo
and adverbs
A "terrorist" could possibly be anywhere or anyone.
In many places, anyway, HomeGnome. But they can do a lot more if they have sanctuary in a national state.
Yes, of course, there was blow-back.
Meanwhile, every day, every hour, more opium grows in the background.
Meanwhile, every day, every hour, more opium grows in the background.
Yep.
Is your belief that we must control every other nation on the planet in order to deny "terrorists" (because 20 years ago they were our "freedom fighters") sanctuary?
Big problem for Iran, Russia.
The Taliban were much more effective at curtailing poppy production than the US.
Fancy, that.
Is your belief that we must control every other nation on the planet in order to deny "terrorists" (because 20 years ago they were our "freedom fighters") sanctuary?
Obviously not, HG, even if it were possible, which it is not.
patientrenter wrote:
Numerous population biologists would say that is optistimitic, but some are right with this number.
What is quite clear, there will not be 7 billion humans on the planet in the near future.
How that unwinds is what will be interesting.
The Taliban were much more effective at curtailing poppy production than the US.
Fancy, that.
Yes, that was good. In other ways they were not so good. But it was the training camps that were the main beef. IIRC we told them that if they closed the camps and handed over OBL and others they would be left alone. They did not.
Interesting?
The Four Horsemen will all show up at the same time.
virus is most likely scenario... Most still do not have access to H1N1 vaccine. Imagine if it was much more serious.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Actually, the planet is flooded with heroin, and the market is falling.
A case of the capitalism over producing again, and a market correction is happening right now.
And poor Burma gets cut out of the picture.
So it is kind of like squeezing a balloon then?
Where do we attack next to deny "terrorists" refuge?
Where does it end?
Paul Craig Roberts: The Obama Puppet
No American national interest is served by the war in Afghanistan. As the former UK Ambassador Craig Murray disclosed, the purpose of the war is to protect Unocal’s interest in the Trans-Afghanistan pipeline. The cost of the war is many times greater than Unocal’s investment in the pipeline. The obvious solution is to buy out Unocal and give the pipeline to the Afghans as partial compensation for the destruction we have inflicted on that country and its population, and bring the troops home.
HomeGnome wrote:
For each one of us, the struggle to do better ends when we die. Until then...
lawyerliz wrote:
Whose rationanality- yours (as a tax payer) the shareholders (which shareholders), the employee, senior managment.
There is not one single action that is rational for all those players. Until we understand that every reform will fail. Once we accept that people weren't stupid and they were in fact acting rationally in their best interests than we can work towards a solution that will protect tax payers. When I first started in Banking- CEO made a lot of money in salary but had very small bonuses. The web of regulation meant that they could not be accused of being timid. Their interest was to make sure that their very cushy jobs (six weeks vacation) and pensions were protected. This lined up their interests and those of the tax payer perfectly and the shareholders who looked on the stock as "widows and orphans" play. Banking was described as 5-8-3 - take at 5% lend at 8% and be on the golf course at 3.
So it is kind of like squeezing a balloon then?
Where do we attack next to deny "terrorists" refuge?
Where does it end?
I don't know. Maybe the solution has to come from within Islam.
Mathus was wrong. Get over it. And in an unrelated (?) matter he doesn't seem to be too popular with the bottom 98% of the population.
It's almost as if Malthus was talking about finance instead of population eh?
EE,
you reminded me of this series of videos, which you're probably familiar with, but may be interesting for others.
YouTube - The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See (part 1 of 8)
Essentially, they deal with:
How much energy independence would 2 trillion have brought us?
Would it have been worth telling the Sheiks to stick their oil up their asses?
/rhetorical ?
Or Christianity.
But some of the biggest Pro War folks are "good Christians".
Which is kinda weird to me; considering the message of Christ.
*The obvious solution is to buy out Unocal and give the pipeline to the Afghans *
Which Afghans.
Is it really true that the Taliban's problem is that it has been cut out of pipeline profits? Then it should be a simple matter to cut them in, in return for ending its relationship with AQ, etc.
But some of the biggest Pro War folks are "good Christians".
I for one am not pro-war.
crazyv wrote:
crazyv, as someone who has seen a few things from the inside, what banking reforms do you think would make the most difference (for the good)?
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
how much greater would it have been if the President has declared in his first state of the Union message that it was the goal of the United States to reduce its imports of oil to zero in 10 years. Yes part of the solution would have required more drilling in the United States- but I think reasonable people would have concluded that even with all the drilling we would not be able to meet that goal without alternative energy sources- nuclear solar, wind geo-thermal etc .
I am aware of that pavel.
I have nothing but respect for you even though we disagree.
Then how to you fix the problem of the "petro dollar" recycling into Treasuries?
I am aware of that pavel.
I have nothing but respect for you even though we disagree.
And I for you, HomeGnome.
HomeGnome wrote:
Reducing oil imports would have done that, HomeGnome.
Pavel<
Then let's drop it for now and talk about something good.
Like fresh, organic in-season strawberries picked at the peak of ripeness.
Yum.
HomeGnome wrote:
$35/bbl sounds about right.
[N.B. This is not a flippant comment. Think about it.]
I think you may have misunderstood my point or I didn't articulate well enough.
"WE" need that in order to run the massive deficit.
What if we were paying out double digits on treasuries?
How would things be different?
May your god or goddess bless everyone here. Thank you for you comments on all sides.
May your lights always be green
May you never be stuck in traffic
and your keyboard free from coffee
Devoting money to a money losing department, in
order to lose less, even a lot less, is something they are unable
to wrap their minds around.
Wow, liz, you are channeling tanta.
Rob Dawg wrote:
So was Newton. But I'm still stuck on this planet.
we would not be able to meet that goal without alternative energy sources- nuclear solar, wind geo-thermal etc .
2 million million dollars would find a way to solve that obstacle too. (No matter how much graft and corruption was involved.)
Then let's drop it for now and talk about something good.
Like fresh, organic in-season strawberries picked at the peak of ripeness.
Yum.
Frozen ones just now with lunch. We've tried fresh flown-in strawberries and they're poor out of season.
Rob Dawg wrote:
In fairness to Malthus, he - like Keynes - has suffered from those who attached themselves to him after he could no longer respond. Most if not all of them ride his conclusions without knowing or even wishing to know his premises.
HomeGnome wrote:
Our problems right now are fed by global imbalances - a never-ending asset price bubble driven by people selling us lots more stuff than we sell them, and in return they buy our paper; a hollowing out of our own industries in favor of financial services (which is mostly just more paper-shuffling) etc.
Cutting oil imports sharply would lower the trade imbalance, lower the flow of free money for asset price bubbles, and lower the flow of money to support religious zealots.
Nice Read long but wort it
Digits and Revolution by Gary North
2 million million dollars would find a way to solve that obstacle too.
How about two thousand million?
That's like pre-beer.
My daughter and I went to a used record store today. I found an album that I am going to frame.
It is a recording of the Lonesome Valley Singers playing Country and Western War Songs. Recorded in 1965
A1 Hello Vietnam
A2 Jungle War
A3 Tell the Folks I Miss Em'
A4 I'm Just a Lonesome Soldier
A5 It's All Worth Fighting For
B1 Don't Worry, Just Pray
B2 It's Got to Be Done
B3 What We're Fighting For
B4 Why Doesn't Someone Write to Me
B5 GoodBye Curly Head
The cover has an M-14, a bandolier, etc.
Why frame it? As a reminder that the more things change the more we do the same stupid crap. In 1965 the discontent was just starting to grow.
the cover...
Hello Vietnam: Country & Western War Songs by Lonesome Valley Singers : Reviews and Ratings - Rate Your Music
I am going to take a nap
nova<
Is it possible for a smart ass to do stupid crap?
Sweet Dreams.
patientrenter wrote:
By what metric, and where......
I just get frustrated by the class attitude here....THEY deserve to be renters.....
burnside wrote:
This sounds right. And those who would like a much smaller global population are not all saying that we will starve if we don't get to that much smaller population. Personally, I'd like a much smaller population so that the margin between the numbers we have and the maximum numbers we can support is enormous - a huge cushion of plenitude. Why? For the same reason I like my indoor temperature in winter a lot higher than the minimum necessary for my survival.
two thousand million?
Two billion? I was saying two trillion, pavel.
I've noticed only recently that the closer the grapes we have here approach their raisin state, the sweeter they are. hoocoodanode.
Gnome,
Read the song list. It has the same garbage titles that they used to sell the current mess..
It's got to be done = just shut up and prey
thanks
Rob Dawg wrote:
Sounds just like that Turkey that gets fed everyday, and will assume this will continue forever----
Nova<
Do you have a turntable?
My good friend does and it is always a pleasure to go over and sip three fingers of whiskey over ice while playing some 33 1/3rds.
justaskin wrote:
Read my name, and make a guess about whether I am referring to THEM or US. And who gets to own a home versus rent is not a stand-alone moral question. Our access to luxuries in life is mostly determined by our contribution to others. And, for the most part, we use earned money to measure and store that contribution. Other systems are possible, but we have seen some bad examples of alternatives in the 20th century.
I think you may have misunderstood my point or I didn't articulate well enough.
"WE" need that in order to run the massive deficit.
I argued that point years ago. With oil priced in $US our government needed oil to be high as a way for other countries (not just OPEC) to keep their reserves of $US high.
And when Saddam started to take something other than $US for oil? Game over for him.
The US went from the USD backed by gold to backed by oil.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Absolutely none...and if you think the current policy will work, maybe you can explain how? Cold turkey seems to work best in quitting heroin.....
We (not that I feel like I had a part in it) botched it, and now it's Pakistan, not Afghanistan, where the action is.....
I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by madness, starving hysterical naked,
dragging themselves through the negro streets at dawn looking for an angry fix;
Or some youngster laying on the beach with two topless chicks and a couple of lids...
HomeGnome wrote:
The best poem of latter half of the 20th century-- Howl, and a great opening.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
You don't make peace by going to war.
YouTube - John Lennon - Cold Turkey with lyrics
lawyerliz wrote:
Move back in with their parents. Plenty of room in the Mcmansion.
HomeGnome wrote:
A term not most of the younger generation would know.
lawyerliz wrote:
First you must admit to a loss. Sounds a little 12 stepish for those still in denial.
Thank you for flying Orange Sunshine.
sdtfs wrote:
Nice one......RD?
Hey, I were that youngster. The babes were indeed topless. The beach was on the roof (next door,) complete with pool. And the lids were only one 'cause the other one was already gone.
My Summer of '69 And extended in Chapter Two
America I've given you all and now I'm nothing.
America two dollars and twenty-seven cents January 17, 1956.
I can't stand my own mind.
America when will we end the human war?
Go fuck yourself with your atom bomb
HomeGnome wrote:
Tell the truth, Gnomester. You were that Woodstock concessionaire!
I hadn't even been condensed into worldly matter at that point.
Apparently there are a few, um; heads on the board today.
So I have a gift:
YouTube - Band of Gypsys - Machine Gun 1
justaskin wrote:
I'm torn between a good Douglas Adams or Douglas Hofstadtler quote and settled on Douglas McCarthur:
"It is part of the general pattern of misguided policy that our country is now geared to an arms economy which was bred in an artificially induced psychosis of war hysteria and nurtured upon an incessant propaganda of fear."
HomeGnome wrote:
Kids! All along, I've been conversing on the internet with a bunch of kids
It's alright grandpa.
<---that is a "pinner" for sure.
Let me get your slippers and your medicine.
None that I would have advocated 30 years ago.
I think the single most important thing we have to do is prevent the top 10 executives in a bank from earning bonuses other than very long dated stock i.e stuff that doesn't vest for at least 10 years. I really don't care whether they earn large salaries (within reason) in fact the larger their base pay and pension the more likely they are to be risk averse.
The second change is that have to stop the dis-intermediation of the banking system. We have demonstrated that in a serious crisis we will not let money markets break the buck. So lets formalize it and make them subject to FDIC oversight, pay an insurance fee. Additionally we should require that any ABS that is purchased by a regulated entity or one subject to ERISA must have a portion of its underlying assets on the books of a bank and be required to keep a minimum equity tranche in the ABS equal to what a bank is required to maintain.
Lastly, I would let bank holding companies set up completely deregulated subsidiaries that would conduct all their trading activities and non traditional banking activities along with a very strong fire wall between the commercial bank and this unregulated subsidiary. Ideally they would be an express law that would prohibit any kind of government aid to these unregulated entities so the market is quite clear that will be no bailout if they get into trouble.
I think these three things would have avoided most of the problem that we have seen. It would effectively break the Fed liquidity stream from the shadow banking system.
burnside wrote:
It showed up in 1969, but I can't remember if it was post or pre Woodstock. The Brotherhood brought it in from Belgium, 55 million hits.
To put this in perspective, Owsley made 5 1/2 in his whole career.
I'm not a kid in real life, but I play one on /tv ... the internet.
fal to pa wrote:
thanks
First of you fossils that mentions the Cosmic Muffin and I bogart this doobie.
Peter One
Zero Zero.
Just in case anyone missed Jim Bunning letting Bernanke have it:
YouTube - Bunning Statement Opposing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
AB- not clear are you saying that if we threw enough money at it we would find all the oil we needed domestically?