Don't forget the hedonic component - really fun jobs count twice.

If the economy adds about 2 million payroll jobs next year, we'd expect the unemployment rate to still be at about 10% at the end of the year.

Or about 20% if we're talking U6 which is the REAL unemployment rate

well, okay!

This also suggests the economy needs to be adding about 0.13 percent of payroll employment per month to keep the unemployment rate from rising. That is about 170 thousand net jobs per month - this accounts for both population growth and an expected increase in the employment-population ratio.

Yup. Adding twice that, roughly 350k per month and we'll be back to 7% (the new full) unemployment by 2013. That ain't gonna cut it.

,czar CR:

I can relate to the 3rd graph, but those other 2 very milky-way Rorshach ink-blot looking things, are more difficult...

I see a butterfly in the 1st one, and an anaconda in the 2nd one.

Gold: Another bigger move day. This time 40+ points. This is the largest price move day in over a year, and the second within 2 weeks.

As Sinclair has observed, the price movement will become violent.
Having reached 1200, the target I posted at Mish, before migrating here, it's appropriate for profit taking. The newbies and weak hands will be educated for a while. Then, The Great Doubling.

Meanwhile, it smarts to see profits lost like that. At least there's strengthening of the market after this bloodletting.

Who's up for a ?

Does anyone think there is the remotes chance of adding 2 million jobs next year? I will be shocked if we add half that many. 10% plus for a long time.

Slumdog wrote:

At least there's strengthening of the market after this bloodletting.

big time

get the dumb money out of the way and BOOYAH!

black dog wrote:

I read a while back one million hires for census takers. Is that right?

sumpin like dat

I expect that AmTrust will be the only bank taken down today. I figure that until January FDIC won't take over any banks that don't have a surprise negative event like BK or being cut off by the FHA.

"The bottom line is the decline in the unemployment rate this month was noise"

Ya'll busted out retirement account money for the stock market plume right? Goldman Sucks has a bunch of hot potatoes to unload...and tis the bonus season....make sure your bankster gets his.

The question is, when will the Fed/Treasury throttle back the money pump accelerator that buys up GSE debt and funnels limitless dollars to FHA ? That has been a force feeding of cash into the economy that hardly anyone is paying enough attention to.

OT but what's going on with gold? Beginning of the dollar short squeeze?

Slumdog wrote:

Gold: Another bigger move day. This time 40+ points. This is the largest price move day in over a year, and the second within 2 weeks.
As Sinclair has observed, the price movement will become violent.
Having reached 1200, the target I posted at Mish, before migrating here, it's appropriate for profit taking. The newbies and weak hands will be educated for a while. Then, The Great Doubling.
Meanwhile, it smarts to see profits lost like that. At least there's strengthening of the market after this bloodletting.

Times like this I wish i could post like Denniger:

Yawn!!!!!

I can't speak for others but this line is supremely boring. You had shorts at $1118 and shorts at $1200.

A man with no watch never knows the time. Man with two is never sure.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

But he is also guaranteed to be right four times a day. Twice as often as the man with one.

Only if the watches are stopped. (And not on all days.)

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

But he is also guaranteed to be right four times a day. Twice as often as the man with one.

Edit:
What JP said:
Comment by JP from thread 'If the Economy lost Jobs, why did the Unemployment Rate decline?'

US$ up 2 yen on the day? Cwaaazy!

If small business is credit frozen, hiring will be frozen...unless a business operates on a cash only basis...which is not typical...credit contraction is job contraction...another part of the policy formula of financial/currency crises...

some of us are feeling like Custer at Little Big Horn

But I think a sluggish recovery means sluggish job growth - and that means the unemployment rate will probably continue to increase.

Or, you could have unemployment increasing in some places, and decreasing in others. Even now there's a huge disparity among the states. I can easily imagine the West Coast getting much worse.

your Gaudia Ray right....i'm nnot the first one to have guessed this?

km4 wrote:

How, what, where ?

Y2K was pretty good for hiring and spending, but the Unix year 2038 is a long way off...

Gold bugs shaking a bit today? A nice little curveball by the Feds there to hammer gold.

Somewhere, I forget where, I read new college graduates are taking 'jobs' as 'interns' to either get experience under their belt or just as a survival mechanism until they can find living wage work. This is something I think that has been going on before the latest recession; but, I wonder if they are counted as employed or not and what the ratio is in these jobs verses full-paying full-time work. I can't remember for sure but aren't those coming out of college over 100K each year looking for work?

Housing growth provided a lot of jobs too in big bubble states especially...those jobs won't come back until there is healthy demand (with available credit) again to clear up the huge housing supply...again no credit...no demand...less jobs...the credit/jobs link...also bubble price fixing the supply kills demand...it's a policy formula for disaster for economic disaster...or economic disaster economics...

512 1024 2048?

Has the Federal Reserve figured out the link between available business credit and increasing unemployment problems?

If you haven't read it, this is a good paper by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff- posted by Krugman:

Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

The current recession is following historical patterns for a severe financial crisis. Trouble is, if this is a double-dip recession, then we're at new highs and ANOTHER financial crisis will send us down another 50% from HERE, and another 7% unemployment from HERE.

A double-dip recession could see S&P @ 550 and "official" unemployment. @ 17%.

The FBI agent inside the Galleon case
| Reuters
$12.9bn SAC capital hedge fund, FBI might have some new sources from the Galleon case to close the firm down

Rising real yields are now the enemy of recovery. Go figure.

Tiger - I would bet your golf balls have taken quite a few hits this week.

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

$12.9bn SAC capital hedge fund, FBI might have some new sources from the Galleon case to close the firm down

Ohhhh, the intrigue grows. I get dibs on Cohen's ugly monstrosity of a house!

I want to turn it into a museum highlighting poisonous Wall Street excess. So we may never forget.

Also because it has a skating rink.

JP wrote:

Cue the chorus: "Glod will strike you down!"

There is no glod, only assets and fiat. Choose your deity.

That said, I am declaring an AGW, barbarous, and Tiger personal moratorium. Carry on if you wish.

Meh. You have to remember, Professor Krugman's agenda is to get more stimpack out there. So he's talking the doom even more than real doomers. Strange bedfellows.

Rob Dawg wrote:

That said, I am declaring an AGW, barbarous, and Tiger personal moratorium. Carry on if you wish.

I will see your moratoria, and raise you one timepiece moratorium. My small contribution to cutting down on the noise.

Warning - I've reversed my position - dumped the bullish etf and doubled up on the bearish etf.

If history tells me anything, is poised to spike to $2000.

My fellow Gold bulls I offered you this GEM this morning about CGR @ $1.26.....I hope you bought if not it is still on the cheap......this stock is going up up up.....BREAKING!

Claude Resources Hits More High-Grade Gold at Seabee

Claude Resources Hits More High-Grade Gold at Seabee

( Previous posting )

Mannwich wrote:

Gold bugs shaking a bit today?

Nope. If you can't stand a bit of volatility, get out of the gas plant.

"Paper gold is not Glod, bearly. "

It was two days ago when gold was going up. Apparently when gold shows that it can do what everything other does when everyone runs for the exits it isn't the same.

Go figure.

BTW Where's rich?

Bubblisimo Gerkinov (profile) wrote on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 3:33 pm replyIgnore userWarning - I've reversed my position - dumped the bullish etf and doubled up on the bearish etf.

If history tells me anything, is poised to spike to $2000.

• Thanks for the update marking the end of the correction down. I will use this as an indicator for me to go long again in UGL

burnside wrote:

Nope. If you can't stand a bit of volatility, get out of the gas plant.

If you're going to trade gold, get used to this stuff. If you're hedging with gold, stand pat -- and hopefully you're not a johnny-come-lately.

Economic and monetary policy is a choice of the administrators' and political apparatus...and the outcome is a known based on past economic history...

This UE chart is way more meaningful:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SxkYp1iC0BI/AAAAAAAAKqI/vscYYIukI_M/s1600-h/seasonalunseasonal.PNG

If you're going to trade gold, get used to this stuff. If you're hedging with gold, stand pat -- and hopefully you're not a johnny-come-lately.

I am in the Stand pat Isle, been there for 10 years, yes I can hold my breath a long time.......

Obama
They thought he was FDR but he is the second coming of Ronnie Raygun.
Dont say he didn't warn you. See SC debate with Shrillary.

Next year
More Free Trade deals. See Columbia and South Korea.
Big cuts in SS and Medicare
Big tax cuts for the vampire squid.

No change from Bush but probably worse.
Even Bush was not stupid enough to escalate in Afghanistan.
Big win for the MIC

"It was two days ago when gold was going up."

Well, no it wasn't poic. Speculative trade in paper is just that. bearly said gold being sold hand over fist. If it is, show me the physical stores disgorging...like BOE in 2000...

Yup all is well, never mind that guy behind the black curtain....look over here.

December 4 , 2009

Update: Jefferson County - 18 Sheriffs

Josam Co - 8

Avid Technology Inc - 120

Telus ( International ) - 125

Bank of Bermuda - Warns of Layoffs

Toyota Formula One facility in Cologne, Germany - 500 to 600

Update: University of Georgia - More Jobs Cuts May be Needed

Berkshire Hills Regional School District - 9

Lincoln Foodservice Products Inc - 190

Corus ( International ) - 1,700

Saugerties school district - 36 Possible Layoffs

Calhoun County - 5

ZymoGenetics - 52

MiddleBrook Pharmaceuticals - 145

Pfizer ( Pearl River Facility ) - 200

Abbott Laboratories - 80 Temp. Layoffs

Upper Deck Co. LLC - 33

The Motion Picture Home - 13

Energy Conversion Devices - 400

Daily Job Cuts - Layoff News , Job Layoffs 2009 , Bankruptcy, Store closings and other Business Economy News

After a decent interval that hopefully the American Taxpayers will forget the bailout.
GM will move to Shanghai.
Their research center has already moved there.

fy,
Sounds like a recipe for disaster...

merchants of fear wrote:

fy,
Sounds like a recipe for disaster...

All the better to apply the Shock Doctrine to the US

Rob Dawg wrote:

That said, I am declaring an AGW, barbarous, and Tiger personal moratorium. Carry on if you wish.

You can have my poop comments when you pry them from my warm, filthy hands.

merchants of fear (profile) wrote on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 2:49 pm

Shock and awe...
TARP did that for me.

Yep the uncle milton plan for Amerika. I don't go to the official unemployement line until Dec 31. Then on to the public funds until they run out.

merchants of fear wrote:

If small business is credit frozen

small business credit isn't frozen. i speak knowledgeably on this subject.

rockyr
then they do they say small business credit is frozen?

Comrade Misean is Dope wrote:

Speculative trade in paper is just that

Also, how can you short physical gold ? All the talk about physical reminds me of a discussion I had with an old timer that told me, unless you have stock certificates, you don't "really" own any shares.

gabyjan wrote:

then they do they say small business credit is frozen?

i don't know. i think there are a lot of business owners out there with creditworthiness issues who are getting hammered.

"unless you have stock certificates, you don't "really" own any shares. "

You don't. "I'm sorry Mr. bearly, but our computer shows you have no shares of xyz in your brokerage account. We're sorry."

RockyR wrote:

merchants of fear wrote:
If small business is credit frozen
small business credit isn't frozen. i speak knowledgeably on this subject.

Cool. Enlighten please. Obama took several questions on this subject just this morning and apparently he isn't in the same loop as you. NYTimes:
Bank credit outstanding peaked in October 2008 at $7.3 trillion and is now down to $6.72 trillion. Still, Mr. Shepherdson says he thinks that banking-sector loan and lease assets have to fall by an additional $2 trillion. That could take another two years.

“We are in unknown territory here,” he said. “Since the peak in October ’08, bank credit has dropped by 8 percent. That is enormous and it is accelerating. The peak-to-trough drop in the early ’90s was just 1.3 percent and that was enough to scare the pants off the Fed.”

If he truly is getting a whiff of approaching doom, he would want to be able to say he called it. Hedging his bets? = nt

I think it's political. Krugman's a strong Dem, and wants lower unemployment to hold the Dem advance. His essays make that clear, to me at least. Don't forget the midterms next year.

So, what happens after yesterday's congressional hearings? Does Bernanke, Paulson, Greenspan, GS, etc get audited, then indicted for fraud or does Sen Bunning get nominated for an Academy Award? And what do we make of today's action? Is it nothing more than the peepholes doing glod's work having a very bad temper showing their wrath and fury? And is gold down around 50 with the dollar up strongly a day after the Bernanke drama just coincidence? Me thinks Bunning is a drama queen.

Comrade Misean is Dope wrote:

Mr. bearly, but our computer shows you have no shares of xyz

Kind of funny, but that very thing happened to me once when I came back from vacation. Well, not exactly. I had a short profitable position and when on vacation it got closed out by my brokerage since they ran out of borrowed shares. Long position vanishing - mmmm doubt it. Too many records.

RockyR wrote:

. i think there are a lot of business owners out there with creditworthiness issues who are getting hammered.

I dont think-I know. A couple of my Business credit cards decided tell me there was no more food in the pantry. If I had relied on only one Bus. credit I would be toast.

A couple days ago someone on here was going on about how there's no difference between real gold and paper gold. I won't name names, but it begins with an "r", has "ic" in the middle and ends with "h".

That being said I will go on the record as saying I wish I had listened a couple of years ago and had loaded up on gold, paper or real.

Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:

across the board

Not in Toronto. This -4.8% move in gold has taken Barrick's stock down 10%. Apparently this is the market rewarding the termination of their hedge book.

I think a big problem with lending right now is that banks aren't passing along the lower interest rates.
Not because they are directly greedy, but because they have enormous backlogs of writedowns to declare. They will delay as long as possible, some even will shrink their loan loss reserves to declare a profit while shuttling delinquencies around their books to make independent analysis extremely difficult.
When they issue a loan (assuming SBA guarantees are not an option because of the huge paperwork), 2 things come to mind
- they go from a 100% risk-weighted asset, to only having a lesser amount recorded as capital (don't know the amount without searching some accounting site for it, but let's say 60%).
- small business loans are illiquid. They are non-standard. The money was probably invested in capital and cannot simply be called in. Most big banks still rely on short term funding, and one way to improve their liquidity is to cut back elsewhere -- well not cut back, but charge a higher spread for lending long.
- the banks with honest books out there either do not have the reserves to pick up the slack, don't have the footprint where the demand is, or there aren't enough of them to provide a competitive marketplace where the spreads are driven down
also they may not be staffed, or organized on a corporate level to manage small business loans. Fortune 500 or Mortgages they can handle 4x the current volume, but not small business loans.
Granted, I think most of problem has to do with the deflationary spiral. Those who want to borrow, are very likely not able to afford it at any reasonable price. Those who are credit worthy don't see the opportunity to expand, and probably would pay down their debt even if their borrowing rates were lowered.

In 1996, the Tickle Me Elmo for child.

In 2009, the Step On Me Elmo for child trader.

Tiger Woods wrote:

Hey, what can I say. I'm only a man. A man who doesn't like to hit my golfball too often on a given day.

Did Kurt Vonnegut say something (like): "Why are American males so obsessed with golF (edit!) and blow-jobs?"?

a note on Japan selling US treasuries:

U.S. Treasuries’ Biggest Overseas Buyer May Sell: Chart of Day - Bloomberg.com

By David Wilson

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Speculation that the Japanese government plans to sell $100 billion of U.S. Treasury debt to pay for domestic spending may impede the Obama administration’s borrowing plans.

Japan has been this year’s biggest buyer of Treasuries, which means it has done more to help finance the widening U.S. budget deficit than any other country. Its holdings have risen by $125.5 billion, according to data compiled by the Treasury. The comparable figure for China, which surpassed Japan last year as the largest international investor in the securities, is $71.5 billion -- 43 percent lower.

Japan will inform the U.S. about the possible $100 billion sale, according to a Market News International report yesterday that cited “rumors” from unnamed sources.

“There’s absolutely no such proposal right now,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano told reporters today in Tokyo. “That kind of talk often surfaces at this season.”

The Treasury is selling $74 billion of notes and bonds next week, along with $61 billion in three- and six-month bills, to help finance the deficit

splat wrote:

Allowing local governments to continue spending like a drunken sailor

Krugman calls for more drunken sailors.

I thought of it as the CA plan

For some reason I thought the Japanese govt ran huge deficits. Is there a sane reason that they are buying US Treasuries in the first place?

RE: Krugman, the former economist, calls for more drunken sailors

Easy Job creation programs.

Higher Tariffs.
End H1-B visas and all similar job programs.
Shorter work week i.e. 32 hours.

There was a rumor flying about yesterday that the BOJ was going to sell Treasuries which I was sorta skeptical about. This just clarifies that it was a rumor. I don't know if they are buying NOW...Hu knows Hu is buying treasuries? The Fed Reserve was buying long bonds, I don't know if they still are or not.

scone wrote:

A roast beef tattoo has gotta look remarkably like a pile of poop.

[noob pokes head in the thread]

"Did someone call me?"

A roast beef tattoo has gotta look remarkably like a pile of poop.

With a pink center

NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 3:19 pm

Krugman calls for more drunken sailors.
All hope now lies in the prospect of a "Drunken sailor recovery"

What say ye?

Waterfall or geiser in the last 30 minutes?

I say a dribble.

Sooner or later, everything comes down to Broward's leather pants.

In France, "Rosbif" is an implied insult against the English, a tit-for-tat for the English calling them "Frogs".

fy wrote:

End H1-B visas and all similar job programs.

H1B abuse is rampant, the way around this is to increase the educational qualification of the applicants, start with a phd level of education.

It should be about specialist skills, not getting as many cut price employees at 25% of US salary with the ability to get around employee protection laws.
~splat

yes, sticking a shoebox in your garage is really, really expensive. and gold's yield is SO much lower than short-term treasury paper...

NateTG wrote:

For some reason I thought the Japanese govt ran huge deficits. Is there a sane reason that they are buying US Treasuries in the first place?

the dollars are accumulated by the Central bank which purchases them from exporters and capital investors. Its balance sheet is effectively long dollars and short yen The dollars that it has have to be invested somewhere in a non yen denominated investment. The government runs a deficit in yen and therefore has to issue yen bonds.

I'm reversing my call, Geiser into the close. Booyahh

Kermit and Elmo have been alternating since the middle of November. Kind of flattish overall. Bloomberg TV had a floor trader on the other day who said that everybody wanted to keep things quiet through the end of year period, so as to consolidate gains and look good going into 2010. So they can keep their jobs. So right now, everybody has a massive incentive to go along with the gag, and lie their heads off.

HollywoodHack wrote:

yes, sticking a shoebox in your garage is really, really expensive

Sure! Put it right next to the much less heavy stock certificate pile. I will say however, there is a potential tax advantage to physical, if you can sell it for more than you paid and can do the sales in small enough transactions.

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

I think a big problem with lending right now is that banks aren't passing along the lower interest rates.

Except for the Fed, interest rates are a matter of credit supply/demand.

NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 3:31 pm

But, but, but... Isn't competition good? Especially labor competition? We've got to keep the labor costs DOWN so that prosperity can bloom.
Right, we all work with knowledge here But what if they can work with knowledge somewhere cheaper? Drucker must not have considered that.

The only prosperity to be found here is for the rentiers and capitalist-owner class.

Speed wrote:

isn't as accurate as it would be if this were a typical crisis,

It is a typical crisis when it comes to spinning the good news but when it comes to getting government handouts it is the end of the world and unprecedented.. I would be more comfortable if in fact they were that venal because it would suggest at least an understanding of the problem. But I believe that these morons actually do believe that this a typical downturn outside of the financial industry which is going through extraordinary times. Hence, the belief that if we can just fix the financial problem we will have a conventional down turn on our hands and problem solved.

km4 wrote:

Aetna push to drop 600K+ as it seeks to raise revenue to meet profit goals.

Well, at least they won't have to worry about dieing of cancer now, these losers can just DIE! YOU LOSERS, WHY DON'T YOU ALL GET HIGH PAYING JOBS THAT HAVE HEALTH INSURANCE AND STOP SOILING AMERICA'S GREATNESS WITH YOUR LOSERNESS.

picosec
you had a comment on another thread about the employment news being too happy to talk about. It definitely is positive, but not earth shaking like you would guess from the headline numbers and revisions. I'll even go so far as to say it was very positive, if you don't consider the context this kind of report was needed back in September in order for the economy to stand on its own 2 feet before the cane of government spending growth was pulled away. Let me dirty it up just a little from a basic view.
HH Oct-Nov change (thousands)
Civilian labor force .... -98
Employment ............ 227
Unemployment ..........-325
Not in labor force ...... 291

291k more people of working age/ability not in the labor force. 98k more people have lost their jobs. So if everyone who became unemployed only lost 1 job, then everyone who became employed were hired for 1.48 jobs (assuming the CES an CPS are transferable). I'm curious about the average hours worked though. Manufacturing has been excellent, but this increase came from the service sector. Because it's the preliminary estimate, the BLS wouldn't know what all those people temporary hires are actually clocking. If it was a matter of people getting multiple jobs, then their preliminary hours worked estimate must be too high. If there is continued follow through, especially with temp hires and hours worked -- that will be big. We're still at at point where the momentum is weak and there could be a reversal though.
The real challenge will be stabilizing the labor force. It will be great news when the labor force starts growing, even if U-3 is over 11%

World Cup Draw Is Kind to the U.S.

The US seems to be an 'every other world cup' team. Perhaps they're alternating with France.

in all seriousness, the storage issue is absolutely ridiculous. unless you're talking seriously huge amounts, you'd have a hard time filling a boot with it. it is an issue with silver, but none of the other PMs. and I don't think anyone, as of today, is selling for less than they bought it for, unless they bought it last week...

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

Who made your iPhone? GlobalPost investigates Silicon sweatshops

:eyeroll: They're just noticing cheap electronics now?!

TrimTabs: The Government Is Grossly Miscalculating Employment 

Trimtabs model says 255,000 jobs were lost last month

why does trimtabs hate 'merica

HollywoodHack wrote:

in all seriousness, the storage issue is absolutely ridiculous

Uhhh, it's serious. A friend of mine has quite a pile, ~350oz. He has a safe for it and an arsenal of weapons to protect the safe. He also taught his wife to use firearms, in case. See, he has a kid that knows about it and that kid has drug user friends. You never know...

RATM wrote:

Trimtabs model says 255,000 jobs were lost last month

255,000 lazy LOSERS! Who expect HANDOUTS from the GOVERNMENT! GET A JOB YOU LOSERS, AND DON'T EXPECT TO GET HEALTH CARE FROM ME, I WORK FOR A LIVING. YOUR KIDS CAN DIE TOO! SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST YOU LOSERS!

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

EHP,
Was it you talking about unloading your gold the other day? Did you?

Rob Dawg wrote:

Cool. Enlighten please. Obama took several questions on this subject just this morning and apparently he isn't in the same loop as you. NYTimes:

EDIT: It's possible with credit. I won't say more.

even 350 oz could discretely fit inside a hollowed-out bottom of a couch, speaker, bible, etc etc... sounds like your buddy's issue has to do a bit more with discretion - I'll refrain from the comment on genetics and parenting, because karma's a bitch...

A new doom--according to this, the IT inside banks really sucks, and amounts to another time bomb:

Banks and information technology: Silo but deadly | The Economist

NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 3:43 pm

255,000 lazy LOSERS! Who expect HANDOUTS from the GOVERNMENT! GET A JOB YOU LOSERS, AND DON'T EXPECT TO GET HEALTH CARE FROM ME, I WORK FOR A LIVING. YOUR KIDS CAN DIE TOO! SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST YOU LOSERS!
Said like a true DNA host.

LOL! Timmy hurls more harsh words.

Geithner Slams Bonuses, Says Banks Would Have Failed (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:

hey, nobody tell NaRm how to bold his text

NaRm does snark, denninger-style

scone wrote:

A new doom--according to this, the IT inside banks really sucks, and amounts to another time bomb:

Lots of financial companies are still using Cobol, and I've wondered if one day they are going to realize nobody is left to write and fix code anymore. Lot's of old Cobol programmers came out of retirement prior to Y2K, enticed by hefty salaries.

My mom got phone calls out of the blue for job offers to code Cobol then, and she hadn't programmed anything in years and no longer even showed it on her resume. She suspected they went back to college graduate lists to see who graduated "back in the day" and then tracked her down.

Any good programmer can learn and pick up another language, but do you want a guy who just learned the language or a 10-20 year veteran with it to do big changes?

scone wrote:

A new doom--according to this, the IT inside banks really sucks, and amounts to another time bomb:

we're really stretching, here.

HollywoodHack wrote:

even 350 oz could discretely fit inside a...

fire proof safe you should probably already have for important paperwork and other items.

It amazes me the number of people who have mortgage documents, car titles, and other important stuff stuck in a desk drawer.

which taller one are you talking about?

CaptainMorgan wrote:

...and other important stuff stuck in a desk drawer. "

You mean a shoe box under my (stuffed) matress isnt good enough?

that's the funny thing about gold - fire isn't a worry, though getting the plastic off of the shrink-wrapped singles could be a pain, if that's how you roll

(timmay's admin. asst.): Secretary Geithner, Lord Blankfiend is on the phone.

timmay pops a nitroglycerine, reaches for the phone, and collapses in an unconscious heap

@ Nanoo-Nanoo (profile) wrote on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 1:50 pm
LOL! Timmy hurls more harsh words.
Geithner Slams Bonuses, Says All Big Banks Could Have Failed - Bloomberg.com

Then the says go fetch me some more water.... boy

do you want a guy who just learned the language or a 10-20 year veteran with it to do big changes? - CM

I imagine it depends how expensive the veteran is. Especially if it has to be in-house. OTOH, some of that banking shit is in weird old stuff like dBASE II. My God, I wonder if my old stuff is still floating around out there? How embarrassing...

poic wrote:

At 4:30pm I will look back at the market close and let you know whether I held that final trade or reversed it.

Wow, did you go to Slumdog Trading School?

Geithner is trying to channel a true Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz ( unlike Krugman ) and looking like an assclown
Let banks fail, says Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz - Telegraph

I have been out of the biz for a while now, but early 2000-2002 I can attest that IT at local banks and credit unions were atrocious. I did several server upgrades and new networks and I can honestly say I don't know how more banks aren't hacked. Not so much the money at stake, as the personal info of clients. My wife is a programmer, and at the same time I was being a hardware monkey, she did freelance work in college...and yes, cobol is still going strong. Amazing how much a company will pay a programmer to write code but not spend on the hardware to maintain a decent IT infrastructure.

RATM I just looked at finance.yahoo.com and found out that I sold my positions.

poic wrote:

Not to toot my own horn but due to my amazing technical analysis skills I did the following trades today:

amazing. Got short yen @ 90.605 . Its almost time!

Market Update

This is just one reason why I've decided to become my own banker...now if I can just figure out how to pay myself interest on my own deposits....huummmm....

Credit enema,

How does anyone expect to get delivery from GLD ? There is no such thing

I know the answer, but I'm not going to tell you. It is insider information.

Today is a day when all who believe in gold should just be counting their blessings and profits for the year.

Gold and silver might be volatile and range-bound for awhile. But if you set any reasonable target, it will probably be hit at some point. In a market where stocks and bonds are soon to crash and cash is yielding nothing, what difference does it make how long it takes to hit a gold/silver target...whether it's weeks, months or a year?

If you set a reasonable target, you also probably will have chances to buy back cheaper and do it all over again.

Rob Dawg wrote:

One, I am all out. Nothing I say is backed by my money. It's getting harder the longer it takes but until my worldview start showing theoretical results corellated with reality it isn't wise.

Shove over, I'm squeezing into the bucket too. I'm out, and waiting, and wondering. I have the added fun of attempting to hedge my currency risk, seeing as every single time my prognostications start coming to fruition, I'm screwed by forex volatility eating away the potential profit.