Summarizing CR and Mish, less new job losses, a bunch of slack capacity, and no one hiring other than seasonal retail, education and health care. Persistent 10% unemployment (17% U-6) .
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
HG -- The squid has eaten the squirrel, repeat, the has eaten the
I wanted to post that!
Damn these fat fingers and slow reflexes.
Consider yourself lucky because now I blame RiF for the loss of keyboard.
My octomom (not that kind, she's in her mid 80's) volunteers at her local library, and when you get right down to it, there aren't many places for people to hang out, I mean whadda you do during the day, if you don't have work?
She says back in the 90's-early 00's, it used to be full of young Asians studying like the dickens, but it's a more cosmopolitan crowd now, and chock-a-block full quite often~
There can be quite a wait to get to one of these here ball & chains, @ her library.
Wonder how much of the employment "spike" being caused by retailers hiring less full time staff and relying more on hiring part time temporary staff for the holidays? Back unemployed in January?
While the final estimate of Q3 Productivity was lower than initially thought, a productivity growth rate over 8.00% is still an extremely efficient labor force.
With that in mind, if productivity remains at these high levels and demand (output) does not increase , businesses will have less incentive to hire new labor. Given the uncertain economic outlook, we should expect to continue to see employers offering temporary job opportunities as seasonal influences warrant. From a positive perspective, the upward revision to unit labor costs and still extremely efficient read on productivity, while a function of less output, does support the notion that the pace of layoffs will continue to slow.Furthermore, a more productive work force and still falling unit labor costs implies greater corporate profitablity. Perhaps the surge in productivity will lead to larger dividend payments to shareholders OR increased business investment spending....either way, consumer demand growth is a necessity if the overall economy is to stabilize and maintain a consistent growth rate.
It is snowing in Texas, Georgia, and southern states the earliest ever. I may either buy some today or a snow blower. In my neck of the woods nobody has got either.
Maybe Yellowknife will have a Mediterranean climate in 50 years?
Here in Ottawa I had frost this morning, but we've got no snow on the ground. Flurries twice in October and November but gone within 24 hours. It was an absolutely wonderful November compared to previous years.
I have a feeling this is more El Nino than climate change-related.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 11:44 am
The difference is your neighbor asks to borrow your snowblower. You government doesn't ask and just takes your glod.
As an added bonus, its market price isn't 40% determined by speculators who have no snowblower.
Firstly, whether the number is 11,000 or 111,000 is really back ground noise in a labor of force of 138 million. Secondly, I don't think it is at all surprising to see the job losses subside. I think there were a lot of folks who did some layoffs just to survive early in the year. The third quarter GDP was positive so the the decline in business probably plateaued for a while making additional layoffs unnecessary.
It would have been truly scary if after all that the government has thrown at it we didn't see some plateauing in the layoffs.
Wow, the Dow just jumped off a cliff. I see glod and sliver are struggling too
perhaps it is the realization that higher interest rates could take a big bite. For a while we have been operating on the Goldilocks theory- Economy is strong enough to keep corporate profits high enough but weak enough to keep the Fed on hold for years.
Wow, the Dow just jumped off a cliff. I see glod and sliver are struggling too
The Canadian dollar moved half a cent in less than half an hour. Crazy.
We used to measure daily moves in tenths of a cent. I don't know about main street, but it's going to seriously stress JIT inventory and manufacturing systems that basically treat the US/Canada border like it was little more than a state border.
All the active managers saw 10,500, counted the trading days until the end of the year and did the math. Take the profits now and dress up the portfolio at lower prices in two weeks.
Rob what is your take on the Sun? Been watching this for awhile now, and lots of people are scratching their heads and are beginning to admit we are in uncharted territory. Livingston/Penn being discussed seriously more now too. I know in September everyone was saying reboot by November...now I am sensing some fear in the air. Also what is your take on the sunspot counts? The debate on what is a spot vs. pore has been interesting to say the least...
I was going over the Canadian dollar chart after I posted, and it's got some 5 minute moves that would have taken three or four days only two years ago.
We need some baffles for all this liquidity sloshing around.
Huge jump in business and professional services category - wonder if that was caused by the law firms deferring the start dates of their new first year associates. The bar exams are usually in late July, and most newbies started in August or September, even though the bar exam results do not come out in some states until October/November. I had heard that many firms pushed off the start dates by several months to save some coin.
crazyv (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 11:51 am
Doofus wrote:
Wow, the Dow just jumped off a cliff. I see glod and sliver are struggling too
perhaps it is the realization that higher interest rates could take a big bite. For a while we have been operating on the Goldilocks theory- Economy is strong enough to keep corporate profits high enough but weak enough to keep the Fed on hold for years.
I'll stick with the theory that there are more sellers than buyers.
NORTH CHARLESTON, SC (WIS) - Authorities say an inmate from minimum-security Coastal Pre-Release Center in North Charleston escaped custody while en route to his work assignment Friday morning at about 9 a.m.
The S.C. Department of Corrections is looking for escaped inmate 36-year-old Michael Jones.
SCDC officials say Jones was last seen at the Burger King restaurant near the intersection of Dorchester Road and Paramount Drive in North Charleston.
He was being transported to the Genesis Hair Studio on Johns Island, when the studio's owner stopped at the restaurant and Jones left the owner's custody.
So glad I dumped those 112 calls shortly after the open.......you just knew the "news" today would be reacted to in this way....at least for a an hour or so.
Vonbeck777,
We pretty much know the Sun [variability] is far more important to climate than the current models acknowledge. In a way we got lucky with several long period cycles aligning to accentuate the effects. Cycle 24 sure is a long time coming and NASA is looking progressively foolish with their revisions. Starting up soon? Statistically likely. I'm just glad that between the sun and climategate that we are moving forward in a rational manner.
Edit: Sunspot counts. We have too much damn resolution now. We've probably had a dozen pimples that wouldn't have been counted in the past. Still we look to be at the same level of activity as 1912-13 so it isn't like we are off the charts. Yet.
He was being transported to the Genesis Hair Studio on Johns Island, when the studio's owner stopped at the restaurant and Jones left the owner's custody.
A convict as a hair stylist? That's not really the image I'd want if I was inside the slammer.
Energyecon has been doing such a good job EMRATIO and other employment data he hasn't had a chance to comment on the nat gas supply increase. In December! Truly remarkable. Tiny yes but positive.
If job cuts are deeper than before, does this suggest that they aren't coming back ever? (I've thought this for other reasons previously)
Construction? How many construction workers do we need considering the glut of residential and commercial real estate? Unless it is allocated in the wrong part of the country, I see little need.
We could make big arguments for nuclear and natural gas power plant construction to replace aging coal plants, but the latter is already in the works.
Real estate agents? locally, many have turned to showing and managing rental houses, since otherwise the work is cut up into too small of a slice of the pie.
Instead of all the gold talk, why don't we have some discussions of technical analysis and trading? It seems we have many with much to teach, and many with much to learn. It might be useful and interesting even for longer term buy and holders, and better than the silly banter.
I probably got put on ignore for that comment, but so be it.
Thanks. We are definitely living in interesting times. Did you catch the story about whale songs changing this morning? Seems they are getting deeper, having to recalibrate all the equipment to track them.
The dilemma with selling, for believers in barbarous in the flesh, is what would one do with the proceeds?
Owning paper pyrite is a whole different kettle of fish, in comparison. It's connected at the hip with everything else in our rickety-tickety system, 100%.
What are the Plan B's, to easily reinvest the proceeds?
Real Estate looks like it could be worth 33 cents on the dollar of current valuations, a few years from now
All currencies are worth their basal value, when you get right down to it.
Going the dryfly/mp route, buying custom machinery is outside the bounds of mere mortals.
This better-than-expected employment report should help mute the outrage against Wall Street bonuses.
Lucky timing.
It also helps with the spending season, or softening legislation that could make Federal Reserve accountable.
The whole thing about 'too much debt' was overblown because with jobs we can pay off any debt.
EDIT: I'm honestly shocked they didn't outsource janitorial duties to Chinese prisoners for half the price.
My grandfather was a medic in the Wehrmacht in WWII, and was captured. He was really worried when he was captured, but figured things weren't going to be so bad when he discovered they had a guy serving the POWs ice water on the train.
Amen. On a slightly non related but connected note, my father said the other day that when the mastery of power point became the most important skill young officers in the military needed to advance....it was all over.
Since we have such a large prison population we will soon get the idea that they are a burden on society and have to start billing them for their time. They will have to work off their time in a slave labor kind of situation where they will be making money for the owners of the prison. As in Two Years Before The Mast there will never be any release from prison because you will always owe more than you work off. Slowly a majority of society will be siphoned off into this profitable enterprise. Get on now to ease the pain.
don't look at me. I tried to do some analysis on how the proposed FHA changes would affect affordability but nahhhh folks were off and running someplace else
The whole thing about 'too much debt' was overblown because with jobs we can pay off any debt.
Yeah, debt levels are not a problem. Just ask the tens of millions of families than are coming to grips with insolvency. Better ignore the record foreclosure stats while you're at it.
A foreclosure mill atty just told me that the number of foreclosures in South Fla had dipped
slightly, but he thought that was due to O's programs and would go back up shortly.
“Today’s report makes it seem that the trough in employment will be around this month,” Robert Hall, who heads the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, said in an interview. “The trough in output was probably some time in the summer.
...
Hall said he couldn’t rule out a further decline that would complicate any dating.
“Both of these guesses presume that there won’t be any new adverse shock,” Hall said. “There are some horror-story scenarios that could stand in the way, so I don’t see the point of forecasting.
Unless it is allocated in the wrong part of the country,
I think it is not just in the wrong part of the country but also the wrong type of housing. I think the glut of housing has to be looked at a much more granular level e.g. the glut in LV will ultimately end up being bulldozed. The demographic changes will mean that the there will be a surplus of McMansions for the foreseeable future as the boomers look to down size into more age appropriate housing. I think we will end up with a shortage of smaller unit size housing as both the millennials and the down sizing boomers compete for the same housing stock that isn't what builders were constructing for the last 15-20 years. BTW if I am right about this kind of transition the problems of the high end prime mortgage market are just beginning.
A foreclosure mill atty just told me that the number of foreclosures in South Fla had dipped slightly, but he thought that was due to O's programs and would go back up shortly.
It makes me sad as well. I can't get over how stupid this whole situation is, and regardless of the morality...just how Tiger chucked his brain out the window... there clearly is a need for discretionary behavior 101 classes for the rich and famous. Hmm...there's an idea.
The only hands-on one I can invest in, is pretty much water.
If I buy stocks in companies that make and do everything else, i'd be in the same league as 99% of the country, and why would I go do a thing like that?
One of the demands in noob's inbox this morning was an email from a cattle farmer who was complaining about the inequality between the following Canadian regulation and practices in the USA.
This note is to serve as a reminder to all livestock producers that the feeding of any form of poultry manure (including poultry litter) to livestock remains illegal in Canada.
You'll note there is no similar restriction in the United States of America, and this cattle producer was wondering if Canadian chicken-shit was somehow inferior to American chicken-shit to justify this discrepancy.
I think we are getting to the point in many markets where insurance and property taxes are equal to the mortgage payment. Here in Vermont they are talking about a 20% plus increase in school tax portion of property taxes. I don't how many people who are just making it now are going to be able to make those payments?
Liz, we now have many that fail to bring things around while they are in 30 to 90 days and then go to the courthouse. Once there they either sell to a speculator or go back to the lender.
If they go to a speculator, the lender has to agree to a price so low that it allows the speculator to hold the property for 90 days which can be a cash flow issue depending on who is buying. Why the hold for 90? Because the only things selling are being financed by FHA.
If they go back to the lender, they almost also go immediately into a "in the redemption phase" status. I have now see some of those in that holding phase for over 8 months.
OK: All "technical analysis" is self-fulfilling momentum (bullshit). Your turn.
I've done some computer modeling in my time, and there is a saying "no models are accurate, but some are useful"
Self fulfilling or not, there are people that buy when there are things like high pole warnings on P&F charts, and then act surprised when it turns against them quickly.
There are all sorts of comments about people buying gold in the past few days, yet if you pull up a chart the price is quite elevated relative to the moving averages. I don't know peoples rational for buying, but trying to minimize risk by not buying at overpriced times makes some sense.
Sure, you can sit and wait and watch the price go up and up, but you can do a decent bit of risk management (relative to price) without much effort.
It's kind of a moot point for me, the last gold and gold shares I sold was in 2008 or so when it hit 1000, and I bought that in 2001, so that says something about my investing style. However, that didn't prevent the possibility of me being wrong back then and the trade going against me, and the smarter you are about an entry the less damage done if you are wrong.
My point was to steer the discussion to a more useful topic than silly banter is all.
Columbia, SC (WLTX) - Columbia police say a bank was robbed in Columbia's Vista district Friday morning.
The robbery took place shortly before 11 a.m. at the RBC Bank at 701 Gervais Street.
Officers say the suspect presented a note to a teller and implied he had a weapon, then demanded money.
Police say the man left on a bicycle. He was dressed in a dark fleece vest over a white sweatshirt. He also had on gloves and large dark sunglasses, and was wearing a surgical cap.
He last seen heading down Gervais Street toward the bridge.
---Yep. He made his getaway on a bike.
Here's to all the cops patrolling on the information superhighway.
:middlefingericon:
What Lurks on the Books of Banks
Their profits have rebounded, but shaky home-equity and credit-card debt—for starters—could change that
At first glance, banks seem to be recovering nicely from the financial crisis. But investors cheered by optimistic earnings reports could soon face a painful surprise.
Many banks appear to be postponing inevitable losses on home-equity loans and commercial mortgages. Others face new trouble in consumer banking, especially credit cards. "Banks know they've got big holes on their balance sheets," says Paul Miller, an analyst for FBR Capital Markets.
.....
The full extent of the problem hasn't shown up yet on the books of some banks. Lenders generally don't write down questionable home-equity loans until after a borrower has stopped making payments. So far, just 2.94% of home-equity loans have defaulted, vs. 5.96% of traditional mortgages, according to real estate data company First American CoreLogic. Industry analysts predict the percentage of home-equity defaults will rise significantly.
What the country is bereaved about with Tiger, is he was one of our last certifiable heroes, now tarnished in a different fashion than the people we once held in high esteem on Wall*Street, but tarnished nonetheless...
this cattle producer was wondering if Canadian chicken-shit was somehow inferior to American chicken-shit
Thank you, Noob, for this entry that should serve as the daily best for both my 'Why I Sometimes Despise My Government' and 'Why I'm a Vegetarian' lists - a twofer.
You are keeping notes right...you will have to write a book...A Swift like look at US/Canadian relations from your vantage point. Pure gold there.
This one actually caught me off guard, because it was buried in an vitriolic rhetoric-filled email that I almost dismissed out of hand, until I got to that part. And then I still almost dismissed it because I didn't believe him, due to the fact that the rest of his email was terribly misinformed.
I still don't know the extent of this feeding practice (that's todays work, if time permits), but it makes for good rhetoric in a committee meeting or with media.
And generally I don't get to deal with Can/US relations, and what I do deal with would make for much less interesting subject material, unfortunately. Stuff like that I'd save for a lecture in front of a class of University students
Same here, but I have more patience than many people combined.
Patience is an investing skill that is lacking in many people, whether they are willing to admit it or not.
One of the things that has made me a successful investor is having a firm and sober grasp of what my strengths and weaknesses are. I think that is a highly underrated thing.
Atlanta, GA (WXIA) -- An Atlanta woman is among a growing number of holiday shoppers who claim they were double charged while shopping at Toys "R" Us on Black Friday.
From New York to Florida, bargain hunters up and down the east coast say they've spotted a double charges on their credit card bills from the nation's largest toy retailer.
Well how about a fictional account of mad Canadian ranchers who fed up when unfair US competition and ineffective Canadian government, invade Wisconsin with hit and run cheese tactics, putting US dairy production in jeopardy.
What the country is bereaved about with Tiger, is he was one of our last certifiable heroes,
The great thing about humans, tho, is their brains excel at making up bullshit stories with heroes. The key thing for the nobility is to seed the peasants brains with faux heroes. The peasant's brains will do the rest.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 12:39 pm
What the country is bereaved about with Tiger, is he was one of our last certifiable heroes, now tarnished in a different fashion than the people we once held in high esteem on Wall*Street, but tarnished nonetheless...
Trashing bull market heroes is a quintessential feature of bear markets. Again, some Prechter 101 level stuff here.
I think it is not just in the wrong part of the country but also the wrong type of housing.
Good point.
There are lots of empty condos in FL for the retiring boomers, nothing price won't fix.
Lots of young single men and women bought small condos and will end up married and having kids. So in theory for every downsizing boomer, there is potentially two condos (I bet the numbers don't work out that nice in the real world though) and one house. Will the younger crowd want the boomers house? They don't seem to.
Rob Dawg and I had a discussion about McMansions becoming the next Victorians, he thinks no, I think maybe and he made some very good points about probably only if it's all family. It's easier to gut the inside and remodel than do a complete teardown, but the cost difference isn't always that great.
Thank you, Noob, for this entry that should serve as the daily best for both my 'Why I Sometimes Despise My Government' and 'Why I'm a Vegetarian' lists - a twofer.
Well, I can't deal with the former, but for the latter point I have yet to discern the extent of the practice. Just because it's legal, doesn't mean that it's widespread.
However, if CBOT is showing live cattle at only $0.80/lb and you can get poultry litter for almost free, I'd be surprised if there aren't a few farmers 'enhancing nitrogen supply' to their herd. The economics are pretty much insurmountable for livestock guys right now.
As an aside, those who do eat meat may wish to consider a deep-freeze and buying half a cow or pig. Barring some monetary event, you'll never see protein (beef, pork, poultry) prices this low again in your lifetime.
I see where Tiger is allegedly offering his wife $5 million not to leave him and altering the prenup to give her $55 million more. Holy cow! A new is born?
*Nothing in the e-mails undermines the scientific case that global warming is real — or that human activities are almost certainly the cause. That case is supported by multiple, robust lines of evidence, including several that are completely independent of the climate reconstructions debated in the e-mails.
First, Earth's cryosphere is changing as one would expect in a warming climate. These changes include glacier retreat, thinning and areal reduction of Arctic sea ice, reductions in permafrost and accelerated loss of mass from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Second, the global sea level is rising. The rise is caused in part by water pouring in from melting glaciers and ice sheets, but also by thermal expansion as the oceans warm. Third, decades of biological data on blooming dates and the like suggest that spring is arriving earlier each year.
Denialists often maintain that these changes are just a symptom of natural climate variability. But when climate modellers test this assertion by running their simulations with greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide held fixed, the results bear little resemblance to the observed warming. The strong implication is that increased greenhouse-gas emissions have played an important part in recent warming, meaning that curbing the world's voracious appetite for carbon is essential ...*
Tiger's a golf-savant, with freakish abilities in the ultimate See Me-Dig Me individual professional sporting event, a Taylor-Made hero for the age, no?
Funny thing about "economists" this morning... My spouse, who thinks my economy obsession is just more proof that I'm a doofus male (like any more proof is really needed), says to me this morning: "When did economics become a science? I thought it was considered philosophy? Why does anybody care what economists think?" I didn't know.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- State water officials said Thursday it could cost $10.6 billion to send water to Southern California through a proposed project of tunnels under the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.
The Department of Water Resources presented the cost estimate to a group of state and federal agencies studying ideas to safeguard water deliveries from the delta.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 12:45 pm
The key thing for the nobility is to seed the peasants brains with faux heroes. The peasant's brains will do the rest.
TW is not a faux hero, he is a genuine golf prodigy. People just get stupid to the point of assuming he walks on water and doesn't defecate, and eventually correction comes along.
The problem is that the generational size is not the same. Both Boomers and Millennials are huge cohorts. The generation that would absorb the housing released by the boomers is tiny compared to both. Thus they will not generate sufficient demand for the higher sized housing nor release enough of the lower sized housing.
Add to this the added carrying cost of housing - taxes and insurance - additional space becomes very expensive. Thus I think it is more than likely that there will simultaneously be a glut and a shortage of housing.
Well how about a fictional account of mad Canadian ranchers who fed up when unfair US competition and ineffective Canadian government, invade Wisconsin with hit and run cheese tactics, putting US dairy production in jeopardy.
I actually did a google search, before I realized you were suggesting such a story be written
You've already got me hooked, but I'm no nova, so the storyline will end up somewhat flatter...
Thank you for your input Pavel, but I was specifically asking Rob what he thought about the sunspot/pore debate going on with sun watchers. Many so called spots are being counted because of better technology but this causes problems when comparing the counts to historical data. We are going through a definition debate so to speak. Some believe NASA has been revising sunspot counts like the government does with unemployment date... But yes always dangerous to throw out the baby with the bathwater assuming there was a baby there in the first place.
*Cycle 24 sure is a long time coming and NASA is looking progressively foolish with their revisions. *
Not so fast:
Climatologists under pressure : Article : Nature
Pavel, I take it you haven't seen the reaction to that editorial? Here's but one. Do you really wnt to stick up for the side of a political debate that calls their opponents denialists?
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Officials at two bank-run dark pools -- the anonymous stock-trading venues that face sweeping rule changes -- expect U.S. regulators to modify a proposal that would make it immediately clear where trading takes place.
The Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs Group Inc officials told Markets Media's Global Markets Summit that two of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's three proposals to shed more light on dark pools would likely be adopted next year.
The third proposal, requiring all dark pools to identify themselves in real time when they report trading, would dissuade investors from using the venues, the officials said late on Thursday.
Rob, show me that sea level is not rising, the arctic ice cap is not shrinking and thinning, and I will reassess my position. What people call one another is not relevant to the facts.
I herd it on the bovine, that stocks of said quatroped are dropping like crazy here on the left-coast.
Meat can only go up in price, as the ranchers are losing money right now, as it is...
It's a North American problem, but Canadian pork and beef farmers are worse of than their American counterparts because we had a head-start. However, you're catching up quickly, and your dairy farmers are in an equivalent financial position to Canadian pork farmers. It's pretty ugly for anyone with ungulates in their barn.
That pretty much sums up exactly what is happeing in my area. FTHBers want a 3/2 1500 sqft place for under $170k. What we keep getting are either Mc Mansions or tiny WW2 boxes priced at 200 $/sqft. As you can expect, these don't sell for cr@p.
" And he said the young man was doing just what college students are supposed to do -- questioning conventional wisdom.
But he says the student's suggestion is not one he's going to follow."
That pretty much sums up this administration and the agent of change.
The problem is that the generational size is not the same. ... Thus I think it is more than likely that there will simultaneously be a glut and a shortage of housing.
I think you are right and interesting points, but sometimes solutions come in unexpected ways, just like the problems.
I know several older than boomers who are true snowbirds, own (outright) a house in FL and a house in the north, and spend 6 months out of the year at each. Most of those are financially well off but if something happened and push came to shove, they could sell one if needed. Enough of that going on and it makes the situation worse, and I bet most people aren't was well off as they are.
I suspect that many boomers already own their downsize house or retirement home, based on anecdotal accounts.
Does the data back that up or disprove it? I don't remember seeing data on that.
He last seen heading down Gervais Street toward the bridge.
---Yep. He made his getaway on a bike.
we had a guy with a gun last summer walk into the local real estate office of Coldwell Banker and passed a note to the receptionist to fill a bag with money. after the staff spent 10 minutes explaining it was not a bank he ran down the street to a B of A where he was promptly arrested.
show me that sea level is not rising, the arctic ice cap is not shrinking and thinning, and I will reassess my position.
Is it possible for people to acknowledge that those things are happening without believing that they are due to human actions i.e. part of the natural process. If so would it not be consistent to argue that reducing Co2 would have not effect on the warming?
I think the problem is that there many who are unwilling to even acknowledge that things are changing or has been posted here that "the climate changes all the time"
IMO if the change is caused by human action we are not going to be able to do anything about it- it is just outside the scope of the human cognitive capacity to deal with it. The Indians and Chinese are not going to accept that they have to accept a permanently lower standard of living when compared with the United States and the rest of the developed world. And there is no way that the developed world will accept a lower standard of living. Given that I think we should be preparing ourselves to deal with the inevitable climate change - that at least gets us out of having to argue what the cause is and start dealing with the consequences.
I have been on no fewer than six different field expeditions to the Maldives. We worked in the lagoon, we drilled in the sea, we drilled in lakes, we looked at the shore morphology — many different environments. We have always found the same thing: a total stability for the last 30 years, preceded by a 20cm drop in sea level in the 1970s.
We have presented a detailed documentation of the sea level changes in the Maldives over the past 4,000 years. The record of the last 500 years may be of special interest to the situation of your islanders. It shows:
> The people of the Maldives had no problems surviving the 17th century, which was 50cm higher than now. Nor the last century, where it rose by 20cm. This bodes well for their prospects of surviving the next change.
"Rob, show me that... the arctic ice cap is not shrinking and thinning," IJIS Web Site
Hi LL, I'm not in the new house yet. The DH is, and he's coming back next week to help drive us to NH. Schrodinger the cat is too old to get on a plane, they say, so she'll be in the back, in a big dog-size carrier, with a cat box and everything. We would have flown her, but you need a certificate of health to do that, and she's just too old. She's going blind in one eye, for example, and that makes her look terrible. She still likes her salmon, though.
i'm a denialist. i think we used to be called skeptics. some of us used to be called "scientists". now, it's just denialists and the high priests of climatology... they're commonly called climatologists.
The ice caps haven’t been melting as the alarmists and the models predicted they should. The Antarctic, containing nearly 90 per cent of all the ice in the world, has actually been cooling over the past 30 years, not warming. The polar bears are not drowning – there are four times more of them now than there were 40 years ago. In recent decades, the number of hurricanes and droughts have gone markedly down, not up.
Speaking of ice, this passage slips over the question: Is the Arctic ice cap thinning and shrinking or is it not.? Why does the article do that? Why not just show us that the ice cap is not thinning and shrinking? If it did, I would give it a lot more serous attention than I feel inclined to do.
I will give it this credit: The consequences of climate change may very well be as catastrophic as the article says. Ignoring climate change will not prevent the consequences. But never fear, skeptics, the chances are that not enough can or will be done to prevent these consequences.
Perhaps the IPCC, under pressure from the Saudis and other energy producers, are being much more optimistic than the situation warrants. Yes, the IPCC may turn out to be basically in the corner of the skeptics.
This summer, there were no pesky Meat-Bees here. They are always a constant bother, especially when you are eating outside. In years past, bunches at a time would show up and linger over your food.
Where'd they go?
What little beasties have gone missing in your neighborhood?
Hey, Juvie, on NPR they had a thing about analyzing Brittish sea captain's logs, like
Captain Cook, as to weather and currents. Lots more records going back hundreds
of years very well kept.
The sunspots are working well enough so that the hub's ham radio contests are
not boring for him.
The hub has given up on anybody doing anything on global warming until actual
disaster is in the air.
And yes sports ability doesn't mean hero any more than legal ability,
or science ability or mathematical ability. All those experts can be pieces of crap
personally.
show me that sea level IS rising and the arctic ice cap IS shrinking and thinning..........what can be done since China and India won't go along with protocols? Nothing that makes a difference.
....and I don't know what "cows" you've been talking to, but MINE won't eat chicken-shit hay.............besides........that goes in the garden....even the cows know THAT!
Tiger was packaged well, and truth be said, I don't follow golf aside from knowing who the best players are, and in all these years, I never heard one thing about Tiger, the guy away from the golf course, that is.
The graph doesn't seem to show that the cap is not shrinking, unless you want to calculate shrinkage one year at a time, instead of decade to decade. Nor does the graph show the kind of ice under discussion. Nor does it tell us anything about the effect of thinning ice and shrinking summer ice on planetary albedo.
Track the lines on the graph again, using the color code.
Haven't seen any comments on the Average Work Week going from 33.0 to 33.2 hours. News too positive to make the cut?
Several economists, CR included, have suggested that this will be the first step toward an employment recovery. While I personally don't see where long-term jobs will be coming from, the foreclosure moratorium even in the face of not paying the mortgage has saved a lot of jobs short-term.
show me that sea level IS rising and the arctic ice cap IS shrinking and thinning..........what can be done since China and India won't go along with protocols? Nothing that makes a difference.
Exactly. That's why all this is pointless. If we can't agree on free money is bad, why worry about something as complex as global warming. We should prioritize the most pressing problems, mine are:
Is free money bad?
Has the lack of enforcement of speeding laws caused the downfall of morals in Merica?
it is not - the discount rate in most peoples minds for the future is just too high for them to take any action today. There was a theory some years ago that there is no other intelligent life in the universe not because there never was but because the technology of an intelligent species will exceed their ability to deal with it. At the time it was postulated that they destroyed themselves with devastating weapons but it could just as easily have been something like climate change which exceeded the ability to adapt.
"The hub has given up on anybody doing anything on global warming until actual disaster is in the air. "
I think we're going to have bigger fish to fry than climate change. But I suppose the ManBearPig! movement has gone evangelical. Not saying that we're not damaging the planet...just that the proposed solutions might be worse than the disease.
All I know is that as more and more time goes by I think we are Schrodinger's cat. God is running the experiment and good ole mother earth is answering the question of whether we're alive or not.
Dubai World was built to serve up the ultimate in luxury and decadence: Indoor ski slopes in one of the hottest places in the world. Architecture straight out of a sci-fi novel on three artificial archipelagos built into the sea. Refrigerated beach sand. Floating tennis courts. The world's largest shopping mall, featuring luxury goods, and entertainment. The world's tallest building. Hotels featuring independently rotating floors, or underwater views, or rooms with eight attendants each. And so on, ad nauseam.
Suffice it to say there's a reason why after Never Land, Dubai was the one place in the world that Michael Jackson wanted to call home.
Lacking a significant endowment of oil, Dubai sought to be the financial hub and the Las Vegas of the Middle East. Its revenue is almost entirely derived from high-rent tourism and servicing the enormous flow of petroleum capital generated by its neighbors.
But the gleaming glitter hides a dark underbelly. Those fantasy buildings were constructed on the back of slave labor from places like Ethiopia, Bangladesh, and the Philippines. While Western ex-pats live the high life drinking Moët on the beach and being waited on hand and foot, laborers do backbreaking work in the desert heat, making $5 a day... their passports confiscated, their liberty denied. Subsisting on meager rations and insufficiently desalinated water, they're forced to live in stinking, cramped, unventilated concrete ghettos an hour's bus ride away, conveniently out of sight of the rich patrons.
Convoys of trucks haul sewage out of Dubai every night because the sewer system cannot handle the load. Much of the excess gets dumped illegally into the sea, leading to unsafe, contaminated waters at the very beaches of its ultra-luxury hotels.
Pav,
that's what you asked for. Evidence of "not thinning. Look to the center low point. 2006 was "normal" and then 2007 was an outlier that's been repairing for the last 2 years almost back to normal. The 2007 event has been generally acknowledged to be a wind driven phenomena. For longer periods there was the 1946 Navy expedition through the northwest passage, and earlier. And for other ice coverage google the debacle when "scientists" announced they had discovered a Greenland peninsula was in fact an island exposed because of global warming. That was all the rage until a map from the early 1950s showed it an island too. Arctic ice is trending down and Antarctic is trending up. Precession seems a culprit, nobody knows but ice while low is still within historical bounds.
Like our currency we have devalued the term Hero. He is a great golf player - not sure what makes him a hero or even a role model other than on a golf course or some other sporting venture. We described those who died at WTC as heroes. Other than the firemen who charged into a burning building a deserve the accolade what exactly did the rest do- they went to work like 138,000,000 million others.
Not saying that we're not damaging the planet...just that the proposed solutions might be worse than the disease.
As the guy who jumped off a tall building said to the man on the fiftieth floor: So far so good.
Yes, the real question here concerns whether or not this species of ours is adaptive. Solutions may or may not be terribly disruptive. It depends on how they would be applied. But maybe the real question is whether or not these solutions would be effective.
"At the time it was postulated that they destroyed themselves with devastating weapons but it could just as easily have been something like climate change which exceeded the ability to adapt."
I can just see the posters now: "Climate change killed the aliens...Don't let it happen to you!"
I didn't know anyone actually read the Spectator - and now it's cited as a source of - of all things - facts. That is an extreme right wingnut political rag - is it not ?
The dollar is worth only about 90% of what it was, but it took about 100 years. Not good, but not disaster. If we lost 90% overnight, it would probably be disaster.
I've wondered if TPTB are convinced peak oil is real, due to all of the hydrogen nonsense. Hydrogen only makes sense if you are out of oil, or have massive amounts of excess base load electricity.
"What if dinosaurs had access to the internet?" After that asteroid hit the earth they would be debating whether the data showing a problem was real or ginned up in some conspiracy by dinasaur climatologist.
The problem lies in the imputation of those events purely to human activity. Notice that they refer to the researchers' models as a counterargument to idea that this could just be natural variation. But those models are one of the primary things that took a credibility hit after the recent leak. I might add that I don't put a lot of trust in computer models in the best of times; when evidence surfaces of deliberate data manipulation, there's even less reason to trust them.
I don’t know why we don’t use climate change as a barrier to entry for goods manufactured in China or elsewhere which is ’ing our manufacturing base due to not only cheap labor, but complete lack of environmental regulations. We could easily impost an import carbon tax on goods imported based upon the amount of carbon emissions from manufacturing and transporting the goods to market. I don’t really care about global warming (I agree with NaRM). But why not use it as a backhanded trade protectionism. Even if you don't agree with global warming I think everyone can agree the amount of toxic crap being dumped by 3rd world countries into the enviromment is not a good thing. Mercury in fish, pollution across the Pacific. etc...
Which is why this entire topic is ideological. It's the Political Type 2's vs the 1's. Another variation of the nature/nurture debate, with different announcers, color commentators and statics.
*Arctic ice is trending down and Antarctic is trending up. *
Rob, the evidence for the former is empirical. We're speaking of summer ice, and not over the past few years but over decades, aren't we,or shouldn't we?
If one approaches the issue in terms of a charge that everyone who disagrees with your position is a knave and a fool, the argument becomes a useless packet of noise.
Go to the people who maintain that the ice cap is thinning and shrinking, assess their data and conclusions, and then rebut on the basis of scientific judgment.
Challenge them and try to get answers. Weigh the answers.
When I see reports of ship passages along the northern Russian, Siberian coasts, between Japan and Norway, the reports impress me.
nikola,
I think a superior analogy is the asteroid hitting the earth while the dinosaurs are worried about whether T-Rex overpopulation has caused the tides to shift.
Yeah, the tides are shifting. But I doubt an Ocean Use Tax would have helped things much.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will be rebalanced after the close of U.S. exchanges today to account for Bank of America Corp.’s sale of 1.286 billion shares.
stock's been trading like a disaster all day...
A little help from S&P to get a bid under your billion share offer....priceless!
Even if you don't agree with global warming I think everyone can agree the amount of toxic crap being dumped by 3rd world countries into the enviromment is not a good thing
Oddly enough, however, the GW deniers would NOT have been in the "pollution is bad" camp, only 40 years ago. "Pollution is bad" was another liberal conspiracy, ya know. To sap our vital fluid so the godless commies could overrun us.
Edit: Pavil, bet you didn't know that. You godless commie were part of the environmental movement. You guys started that entire thing to help you win the cold war. Ask one of the old-fart PT 1's about THAT conspiracy.
I thought Americans needed to spend more time in the gym.
Umemplo
OMG, they've kidnapped CR!
unimplosion
LoserBeachBum wrote:
Why waste it on the engine.
"Just say N2O".
HG -- The squid has eaten the squirrel, repeat, the
has eaten the 
Summarizing CR and Mish, less new job losses, a bunch of slack capacity, and no one hiring other than seasonal retail, education and health care. Persistent 10% unemployment (17% U-6) .
In a tragic letter bombing, Unemplo was blown up by an i.e.d.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I wanted to post that!
Damn these fat fingers and slow reflexes.
The Pig has been heavily drinking! Well, listening all that doom talk every day...
This better-than-expected employment report should help mute the outrage against Wall Street bonuses.
Lucky timing.
on the
bars.
I think in most countries, even Louisiana, stadiums and gyms are to be avoided unless you bought a ticket to a scheduled circus.
Welcome to the new jobless economy !
~splat
nemo
could this be the reason that boa is trying to get out from beneath the tarp? bonuses!!!!!!!!????
I thought the
headline was going to be about CRE. I love those videos.
Did Louisiana secede? They jumped the line on Texas?
OMG! Thia IS bad! Mortgage Pig got laid off halfway through the headline!
noob goldberg wrote:
Consider yourself lucky because now I blame RiF for the loss of keyboard.
GS partners can re-holster their guns for the time being...
Good glod.
Good yenn.
Good Euro.
Good
Jeebus, when is the last time
dropped so much so quickly? Off 3.6% as I type.
My octomom (not that kind, she's in her mid 80's) volunteers at her local library, and when you get right down to it, there aren't many places for people to hang out, I mean whadda you do during the day, if you don't have work?
She says back in the 90's-early 00's, it used to be full of young Asians studying like the dickens, but it's a more cosmopolitan crowd now, and chock-a-block full quite often~
There can be quite a wait to get to one of these here ball & chains, @ her library.
I'm gonna celebrate these numbers by biking over to Starbucks to see the hotties and blow a bit of cash on a double espresso.
I'll make sure to conspicuously carry my Iphone so that nobody thinks I'm out of work.
kcoop
really need a boa(snake) icon for boa(bankofamerica)
thank you
short squeeze?
a friendly hug or two from the PTB
It is times like these that I recall my favorite handle here. Margin Call of Cthulu.
About a week ago.
That KOS piece Kristina linked sounds like it was written by someone in my area. Here is a companion piece looking at it from the view point of local business
2010 area forecast: ‘Doom and gloom’ - Sacramento Business Journal:
Wonder how much of the employment "spike" being caused by retailers hiring less full time staff and relying more on hiring part time temporary staff for the holidays? Back unemployed in January?
While the final estimate of Q3 Productivity was lower than initially thought, a productivity growth rate over 8.00% is still an extremely efficient labor force.
With that in mind, if productivity remains at these high levels and demand (output) does not increase , businesses will have less incentive to hire new labor. Given the uncertain economic outlook, we should expect to continue to see employers offering temporary job opportunities as seasonal influences warrant. From a positive perspective, the upward revision to unit labor costs and still extremely efficient read on productivity, while a function of less output, does support the notion that the pace of layoffs will continue to slow.Furthermore, a more productive work force and still falling unit labor costs implies greater corporate profitablity. Perhaps the surge in productivity will lead to larger dividend payments to shareholders OR increased business investment spending....either way, consumer demand growth is a necessity if the overall economy is to stabilize and maintain a consistent growth rate.
Jobless Claims Improve. Labor Force Productivity Implications on Future Hiring
Really? Oh. Carry on then
timmay the forehead awakens from a nightmare, realizing that he ignored the alarm again. he jumps on the phone and speed dials Lord Blankfiend:
"Dad, can I borrow your 28 ga Over Under Purdy. I've got an
to stalk today."
,rad Bosch,
I'm relieved i'm not you but I wouldn't rule out the same milkman being our dad.
i think the nyse is starting to get the message on what the rising dollar means for equities prices.
It is snowing in Texas, Georgia, and southern states the earliest ever. I may either buy some
today or a snow blower. In my neck of the woods nobody has got either.
The difference is your neighbor asks to borrow your snowblower. You government doesn't ask and just takes your glod.
It'll be interesting to see how climate change works out...
Maybe Yellowknife will have a Mediterranean climate in 50 years?
Transports think the recession is over. Weird. Pricing in much cheaper oil perhaps?
But it is easier to hide
Got|Rustoleum?
,rad Dawgma,
Wouldn't the easiest to take, be ETF's?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Here in Ottawa I had frost this morning, but we've got no snow on the ground. Flurries twice in October and November but gone within 24 hours. It was an absolutely wonderful November compared to previous years.
I have a feeling this is more El Nino than climate change-related.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Or vice versa if Sol doesn't reawaken soon.
i can assure you that you don't need a snowblower in TX.
I hear if you plate it to look like tungsten, no problemo ed
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 11:44 am
The difference is your neighbor asks to borrow your snowblower. You government doesn't ask and just takes your glod.
As an added bonus, its market price isn't 40% determined by speculators who have no snowblower.
down goes frazier?
Did the pig hand out Prozac to the commentariat?
Firstly, whether the number is 11,000 or 111,000 is really back ground noise in a labor of force of 138 million. Secondly, I don't think it is at all surprising to see the job losses subside. I think there were a lot of folks who did some layoffs just to survive early in the year. The third quarter GDP was positive so the the decline in business probably plateaued for a while making additional layoffs unnecessary.
It would have been truly scary if after all that the government has thrown at it we didn't see some plateauing in the layoffs.
Rob Dawg wrote:
They prefer extortion
These violent short-term
/currency moves must be good for Main Street...
1 currency now.
Wow, the Dow just jumped off a cliff. I see glod and sliver are struggling too
Dow is doing a swan dive all of a sudden. What's up?
long squeeze?
Hu knows? Maybe our markets will start trading on fundamentals rather than hopium and liquidity.
Almost everything is over-priced. Except cost of living. Either assets are over-valued or CPI is under-valued. I think the former is true.
You open up the garage door to get your snowblower and discover nothing but aluminum shovels with certificates of authenticity.
Black Friday started out innocently enough, a Decembris to dismember.
Doofus wrote:
perhaps it is the realization that higher interest rates could take a big bite. For a while we have been operating on the Goldilocks theory- Economy is strong enough to keep corporate profits high enough but weak enough to keep the Fed on hold for years.
Doofus wrote:
The Canadian dollar moved half a cent in less than half an hour. Crazy.
We used to measure daily moves in tenths of a cent. I don't know about main street, but it's going to seriously stress JIT inventory and manufacturing systems that basically treat the US/Canada border like it was little more than a state border.
nikola tesla wrote:
dollar
noob-
http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif
$ short squeeze
Ridiculous.....
Ciao
MS
Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the King's horses, And all the King's men
Couldn't put Humpty together again!
All the active managers saw 10,500, counted the trading days until the end of the year and did the math. Take the profits now and dress up the portfolio at lower prices in two weeks.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Rob what is your take on the Sun? Been watching this for awhile now, and lots of people are scratching their heads and are beginning to admit we are in uncharted territory. Livingston/Penn being discussed seriously more now too. I know in September everyone was saying reboot by November...now I am sensing some fear in the air. Also what is your take on the sunspot counts? The debate on what is a spot vs. pore has been interesting to say the least...
Pimp my Portfolio (TM)?
I love volatility. I get a warm fuzzy feeling when people richer and more well connected than me get to make tons of cash
MS wrote:
I was going over the Canadian dollar chart after I posted, and it's got some 5 minute moves that would have taken three or four days only two years ago.
We need some baffles for all this liquidity sloshing around.
noob goldberg wrote:
Well, I'll happily admit to being completely baffled.
Having no opposable thumb and forefinger, how does the
squeeze off a few shots at suspected passerby, if so threatened?
If somebody yelled "hey Obamas outside" would that not empty the gym?
Currency volatility good for pigman.
Bad for serf-ant.
Huge jump in business and professional services category - wonder if that was caused by the law firms deferring the start dates of their new first year associates. The bar exams are usually in late July, and most newbies started in August or September, even though the bar exam results do not come out in some states until October/November. I had heard that many firms pushed off the start dates by several months to save some coin.
Rob Dawg wrote:
crazyv (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 11:51 am
Doofus wrote:
Wow, the Dow just jumped off a cliff. I see glod and sliver are struggling too
perhaps it is the realization that higher interest rates could take a big bite. For a while we have been operating on the Goldilocks theory- Economy is strong enough to keep corporate profits high enough but weak enough to keep the Fed on hold for years.
I'll stick with the theory that there are more sellers than buyers.
Rumors are abound that FOX News is reporting a Jaimee/Elin/Palin threesome video.
The markets just can't absorb it that quick.
Glod's in his heaven, all's right with the world.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Looks like the PPT got the ship turned around in time.
Dow is doing a swan dive all of a sudden. What's up?
Obama is talking about jobs
noob, you were right.
It is like you own them.
NORTH CHARLESTON, SC (WIS) - Authorities say an inmate from minimum-security Coastal Pre-Release Center in North Charleston escaped custody while en route to his work assignment Friday morning at about 9 a.m.
The S.C. Department of Corrections is looking for escaped inmate 36-year-old Michael Jones.
SCDC officials say Jones was last seen at the Burger King restaurant near the intersection of Dorchester Road and Paramount Drive in North Charleston.
He was being transported to the Genesis Hair Studio on Johns Island, when the studio's owner stopped at the restaurant and Jones left the owner's custody.
Escaped inmate apprehended - WIS News 10 - Columbia, South Carolina |
So glad I dumped those 112 calls shortly after the open.......you just knew the "news" today would be reacted to in this way....at least for a an hour or so.
Ciao
MS
I bought a 'limited edition' candy bar last week, and once I devoured it, I could see the scarcity.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Jobs Contract 23rd Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Drop to 10.0%
MaryAnn wrote:
Lots of money in private prisons, just do the research on shadow owners.
....how so, MaryAnn?.........Whatcha got? We have a CCA prison being built here now - all sorts of lying, under-table deals, and BS to get approved.
(from last thread)
JD<
Looking forward to spending your golden years on the cheap parking the camper at national forest campgrounds? Might be time to redo your budget.
The U.S. Forest Service wants to eliminate its long-standing half-off discount for seniors and the disabled at federal campgrounds run by private companies. Concessionaires now operate most of the agency's developed campsites.
U.S. Forest Service seeks end of half-off discount for seniors | Oregon Environmental News - — OregonLive.com
Vonbeck777,
We pretty much know the Sun [variability] is far more important to climate than the current models acknowledge. In a way we got lucky with several long period cycles aligning to accentuate the effects. Cycle 24 sure is a long time coming and NASA is looking progressively foolish with their revisions. Starting up soon? Statistically likely. I'm just glad that between the sun and climategate that we are moving forward in a rational manner.
Edit: Sunspot counts. We have too much damn resolution now. We've probably had a dozen pimples that wouldn't have been counted in the past. Still we look to be at the same level of activity as 1912-13 so it isn't like we are off the charts. Yet.
If there were no fires, the fire insurance companies would make a nice windfall collecting premiums and not paying any claims.
Then they'd implode.
They'd have to set some fires to stimulate recovery.
Did Mr. Mortgage Pig lose his job to Mr. Moo Shu?
Enquiring rinds want to know.
HomeGnome wrote:
A convict as a hair stylist? That's not really the image I'd want if I was inside the slammer.
Next thing you know, the all-you-can-eat buffets will be outlawed...
Another chart of the lovely news on jobs:
Chart of the Day - Job losses are over triple the average trough
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
unemplo-sion
++tgt {big for me}
If your not buying
at this price folks your @#$%&!.
noob,
He's probably their "free" janitor.
shill wrote:
I'm @#$%&!
HomeGnome wrote:
Obviously you get what you pay for.
EDIT: I'm honestly shocked they didn't outsource janitorial duties to Chinese prisoners for half the price.
shill wrote
Someone's selling shillings, eh?
what was slumdog's latest proclamation? Gold to $2000?
can we get a synthesis, so when he comes back bloviating....were all on the same page.
Energyecon has been doing such a good job EMRATIO and other employment data he hasn't had a chance to comment on the nat gas supply increase. In December! Truly remarkable. Tiny yes but positive.
If job cuts are deeper than before, does this suggest that they aren't coming back ever? (I've thought this for other reasons previously)
Construction? How many construction workers do we need considering the glut of residential and commercial real estate? Unless it is allocated in the wrong part of the country, I see little need.
We could make big arguments for nuclear and natural gas power plant construction to replace aging coal plants, but the latter is already in the works.
Real estate agents? locally, many have turned to showing and managing rental houses, since otherwise the work is cut up into too small of a slice of the pie.
Instead of all the gold talk, why don't we have some discussions of technical analysis and trading? It seems we have many with much to teach, and many with much to learn. It might be useful and interesting even for longer term buy and holders, and better than the silly banter.
I probably got put on ignore for that comment, but so be it.
Thanks. We are definitely living in interesting times. Did you catch the story about whale songs changing this morning? Seems they are getting deeper, having to recalibrate all the equipment to track them.
looking at CRs graph a couple threads down
"job losses post wwII recessions"
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SxkQs-QWNLI/AAAAAAAAG8E/kJoRJrtQiBQ/s1600-h/EmploymentPercentJobLossesNov.jpg
it seems to be a pattern that
1 the last 4 recessions, each recession heralds a deeper and longer period of job losses
2 the recession recovers at higher and higher bases numbers of unemployed
3 and most important
...the curves are symmetrical going in as compared to coming out and so we can guess
that if the pattern is continued
job losses will remain below the x axis for another 24 months
CaptainMorgan wrote:
OK: All "technical analysis" is self-fulfilling momentum (bullshit).
Your turn.
---I don't put anyone on ignore.
FYI.
The dilemma with selling, for believers in barbarous in the flesh, is what would one do with the proceeds?
Owning paper pyrite is a whole different kettle of fish, in comparison. It's connected at the hip with everything else in our rickety-tickety system, 100%.
What are the Plan B's, to easily reinvest the proceeds?
Real Estate looks like it could be worth 33 cents on the dollar of current valuations, a few years from now
All currencies are worth their basal value, when you get right down to it.
Going the dryfly/mp route, buying custom machinery is outside the bounds of mere mortals.
What else?
the REAL unemployment rate in U.S. fell to 17.2 percent in Nov from 17.5 percent in October
now that's what I'm talking about for REAL hope and change
Nemo wrote:
It also helps with the spending season, or softening legislation that could make Federal Reserve accountable.
The whole thing about 'too much debt' was overblown because with jobs we can pay off any debt.
I think slumdog was gonna short at 1200.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Of course you mean technical analysis OR trading. Some are bookies and some are paid to play. Both manipulate the outcome.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Subsidize learning.
You could do what Tiger is doing....
Have a few fling's... pay off the mistress w/barbarous!
Too Precious
My grandfather was a medic in the Wehrmacht in WWII, and was captured. He was really worried when he was captured, but figured things weren't going to be so bad when he discovered they had a guy serving the POWs ice water on the train.
Amen. On a slightly non related but connected note, my father said the other day that when the mastery of power point became the most important skill young officers in the military needed to advance....it was all over.
HomeGnome wrote:
Since we have such a large prison population we will soon get the idea that they are a burden on society and have to start billing them for their time. They will have to work off their time in a slave labor kind of situation where they will be making money for the owners of the prison. As in Two Years Before The Mast there will never be any release from prison because you will always owe more than you work off. Slowly a majority of society will be siphoned off into this profitable enterprise. Get on
now to ease the pain.
close
he was talking, hey im goin short tonight when gold was closer 1100
don't look at me. I tried to do some analysis on how the proposed FHA changes would affect affordability but nahhhh folks were off and running someplace else
wrong author
The whole thing about 'too much debt' was overblown because with jobs we can pay off any debt.
Yeah, debt levels are not a problem. Just ask the tens of millions of families than are coming to grips with insolvency. Better ignore the record foreclosure stats while you're at it.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Staples infrastructure. Grain elevators, railroads, protected utilities like grid and water.
Cobra's Market View
Shanky's Technical Analysis and Market Commentary
Technical Analysis | Chart Addict
Technical Analysis -- Seeking Alpha
Technical Analysis Morning Trader: swing trading, stock picks, scans and ideas for day trading and swing trading using technical analysis.
There's not a lot more I can say.
I'm not paying the
for the education they are supplying me...
A foreclosure mill atty just told me that the number of foreclosures in South Fla had dipped
slightly, but he thought that was due to O's programs and would go back up shortly.
And the Tiger Woods thing just makes me sad.
I really don't want to hear about it.
NBER’s Hall Says Recession May Be Over, Month Unclear (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
"Just because I don't see the point of something doesn't mean I won't keep doing it..." ---Genius Hall
lawyerliz
re tiger woods, thats one of the prices of fame,sorry but if they had been mr &mrs average america
no one would have cared.
the word out on the street according to zero hedge and reinforced with a sell (part of your gold) signal from jesse's cafe
was based on alleged comments from the japanese
that they were going to be significant sellers of us treasuries
this would force interest rates up allegedly as liquidation would force sale at below par value
i have said before....anyone who is "all in" on gold or any PM is behaving foolishly
long term if by some miracle
the fed and the us gov can bring the dollar back from the land of the dead
then gold will suffer
CaptainMorgan wrote:
I think it is not just in the wrong part of the country but also the wrong type of housing. I think the glut of housing has to be looked at a much more granular level e.g. the glut in LV will ultimately end up being bulldozed. The demographic changes will mean that the there will be a surplus of McMansions for the foreseeable future as the boomers look to down size into more age appropriate housing. I think we will end up with a shortage of smaller unit size housing as both the millennials and the down sizing boomers compete for the same housing stock that isn't what builders were constructing for the last 15-20 years. BTW if I am right about this kind of transition the problems of the high end prime mortgage market are just beginning.
U.S. housing market meltdown not over yet: Zandi
| Reuters
Msn sez the jobs report was "steller".
Fixed that for you.
It makes me sad as well. I can't get over how stupid this whole situation is, and regardless of the morality...just how Tiger chucked his brain out the window... there clearly is a need for discretionary behavior 101 classes for the rich and famous. Hmm...there's an idea.
,rad Dawgma,
The only hands-on one I can invest in, is pretty much water.
If I buy stocks in companies that make and do everything else, i'd be in the same league as 99% of the country, and why would I go do a thing like that?
One of the demands in noob's inbox this morning was an email from a cattle farmer who was complaining about the inequality between the following Canadian regulation and practices in the USA.
Regulatory Guidance: Feeding of Poultry Manure to Cattle Prohibited
You'll note there is no similar restriction in the United States of America, and this cattle producer was wondering if Canadian chicken-shit was somehow inferior to American chicken-shit to justify this discrepancy.
And if the dollar is worthless, then gold's dollar price is irrelevant.
"the story about whale songs changing." Have you heard the Rolling Stones lately. Wait til Super Bowl halftime.
They could call it The Micheal Jackson Memorial Finishing School.
The dilemma with selling, for believers in barbarous in the flesh, is what would one do with the proceeds?
Why not keep buying & selling it on the dips? Seems volatile enough.
You are keeping notes right...you will have to write a book...A Swift like look at US/Canadian relations from your vantage point. Pure gold there.
Market green again. What would Tiger do. Plunge in? Over and over?
I think we are getting to the point in many markets where insurance and property taxes are equal to the mortgage payment. Here in Vermont they are talking about a 20% plus increase in school tax portion of property taxes. I don't how many people who are just making it now are going to be able to make those payments?
Liz, we now have many that fail to bring things around while they are in 30 to 90 days and then go to the courthouse. Once there they either sell to a speculator or go back to the lender.
If they go to a speculator, the lender has to agree to a price so low that it allows the speculator to hold the property for 90 days which can be a cash flow issue depending on who is buying. Why the hold for 90? Because the only things selling are being financed by FHA.
If they go back to the lender, they almost also go immediately into a "in the redemption phase" status. I have now see some of those in that holding phase for over 8 months.
I'm a decade trader, patience is my game.
IIRC, wasn't there a piece written a couple of weeks back predicting a possibly positive unemployment number due to a statistical quirk?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
There isn't a grain coop near you?
Vonbek777 wrote:
Brain? What males use their brain when the dick is talking?
nikola tesla wrote:
He'd tap out of this hole before the greens fees ate him alive.
Remember, how I said 'easily' invest?
A grain co-op doesn't strike me as easy, no?
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
I've done some computer modeling in my time, and there is a saying "no models are accurate, but some are useful"
Self fulfilling or not, there are people that buy when there are things like high pole warnings on P&F charts, and then act surprised when it turns against them quickly.
There are all sorts of comments about people buying gold in the past few days, yet if you pull up a chart the price is quite elevated relative to the moving averages. I don't know peoples rational for buying, but trying to minimize risk by not buying at overpriced times makes some sense.
Sure, you can sit and wait and watch the price go up and up, but you can do a decent bit of risk management (relative to price) without much effort.
It's kind of a moot point for me, the last gold and gold shares I sold was in 2008 or so when it hit 1000, and I bought that in 2001, so that says something about my investing style. However, that didn't prevent the possibility of me being wrong back then and the trade going against me, and the smarter you are about an entry the less damage done if you are wrong.
My point was to steer the discussion to a more useful topic than silly banter is all.
Ah, you lose money the old fashioned way.
It's a lot more exciting to lose it on dip volatility.
Columbia, SC (WLTX) - Columbia police say a bank was robbed in Columbia's Vista district Friday morning.
The robbery took place shortly before 11 a.m. at the RBC Bank at 701 Gervais Street.
Officers say the suspect presented a note to a teller and implied he had a weapon, then demanded money.
Police say the man left on a bicycle. He was dressed in a dark fleece vest over a white sweatshirt. He also had on gloves and large dark sunglasses, and was wearing a surgical cap.
He last seen heading down Gervais Street toward the bridge.
---Yep. He made his getaway on a bike.
Here's to all the cops patrolling on the information superhighway.
:middlefingericon:
A few...a very, very few.... mostly absent minded philosophers I would wager. Point taken.
What Lurks on the Books of Banks
Their profits have rebounded, but shaky home-equity and credit-card debt—for starters—could change that
U.S. unemployment rate falls, job losses improve - KansasCity.com
What the country is bereaved about with Tiger, is he was one of our last certifiable heroes, now tarnished in a different fashion than the people we once held in high esteem on Wall*Street, but tarnished nonetheless...
All you glod worshipers should note that a 3.67% intraday drop does not constitute a correction. It's just a warning.
noob goldberg wrote:
Thank you, Noob, for this entry that should serve as the daily best for both my 'Why I Sometimes Despise My Government' and 'Why I'm a Vegetarian' lists - a twofer.
Vonbek777 wrote:
This one actually caught me off guard, because it was buried in an vitriolic rhetoric-filled email that I almost dismissed out of hand, until I got to that part. And then I still almost dismissed it because I didn't believe him, due to the fact that the rest of his email was terribly misinformed.
I still don't know the extent of this feeding practice (that's todays work, if time permits), but it makes for good rhetoric in a committee meeting or with media.
And generally I don't get to deal with Can/US relations, and what I do deal with would make for much less interesting subject material, unfortunately. Stuff like that I'd save for a lecture in front of a class of University students
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
This is a two way street. His bodily fluids are precious. Women are attracted to him like
to
. He doesn't stand a chance.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Same here, but I have more patience than many people combined.
Patience is an investing skill that is lacking in many people, whether they are willing to admit it or not.
One of the things that has made me a successful investor is having a firm and sober grasp of what my strengths and weaknesses are. I think that is a highly underrated thing.
Turned out to be tungsten.
So hard to find the real thing. It's hard to know the difference till you scratch beneath the surface.
Wow, there are so many levels to these discussions.
Atlanta, GA (WXIA) -- An Atlanta woman is among a growing number of holiday shoppers who claim they were double charged while shopping at Toys "R" Us on Black Friday.
From New York to Florida, bargain hunters up and down the east coast say they've spotted a double charges on their credit card bills from the nation's largest toy retailer.
---That's one way to increase "sales".
I heard he came in 114th, in the Tour De France, and lost his sponsor...
rb<
You don't think the farm hands squat out in the fields when harvesting?
i saw someone the other day call Krugman a "former economist"
Does that means he's just another shill today
I'm very happy for the peeps who got a job. But I'm not backing out of GOLDX just yet. Next year is going to be vvveeewwwwyy interestin'.
I think we should call them econologists since their hypotheses cannot be tested by experiment.
Go easy on PK, he's still got his mettle.
Well how about a fictional account of mad Canadian ranchers who fed up when unfair US competition and ineffective Canadian government, invade Wisconsin with hit and run cheese tactics, putting US dairy production in jeopardy.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
The great thing about humans, tho, is their brains excel at making up bullshit stories with heroes. The key thing for the nobility is to seed the peasants brains with faux heroes. The peasant's brains will do the rest.
Krugman's new acronym is TRBEFKAE
The Roast Beef Eater Formerly Known As Economist
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 12:39 pm
What the country is bereaved about with Tiger, is he was one of our last certifiable heroes, now tarnished in a different fashion than the people we once held in high esteem on Wall*Street, but tarnished nonetheless...
Trashing bull market heroes is a quintessential feature of bear markets. Again, some Prechter 101 level stuff here.
cinco-x
thanks for the link,even read the comments, like how boa will not tell how much price has declined./snark
who started feeding chickenshit to cows? nobel prize
crazyv wrote:
Good point.
There are lots of empty condos in FL for the retiring boomers, nothing price won't fix.
Lots of young single men and women bought small condos and will end up married and having kids. So in theory for every downsizing boomer, there is potentially two condos (I bet the numbers don't work out that nice in the real world though) and one house. Will the younger crowd want the boomers house? They don't seem to.
Rob Dawg and I had a discussion about McMansions becoming the next Victorians, he thinks no, I think maybe and he made some very good points about probably only if it's all family. It's easier to gut the inside and remodel than do a complete teardown, but the cost difference isn't always that great.
*Cycle 24 sure is a long time coming and NASA is looking progressively foolish with their revisions. *
Not so fast:
Climatologists under pressure : Article : Nature
rb wrote:
Well, I can't deal with the former, but for the latter point I have yet to discern the extent of the practice. Just because it's legal, doesn't mean that it's widespread.
However, if CBOT is showing live cattle at only $0.80/lb and you can get poultry litter for almost free, I'd be surprised if there aren't a few farmers 'enhancing nitrogen supply' to their herd. The economics are pretty much insurmountable for livestock guys right now.
As an aside, those who do eat meat may wish to consider a deep-freeze and buying half a cow or pig. Barring some monetary event, you'll never see protein (beef, pork, poultry) prices this low again in your lifetime.
I see where Tiger is allegedly offering his wife $5 million not to leave him and altering the prenup to give her $55 million more. Holy cow! A new
is born?
*Nothing in the e-mails undermines the scientific case that global warming is real — or that human activities are almost certainly the cause. That case is supported by multiple, robust lines of evidence, including several that are completely independent of the climate reconstructions debated in the e-mails.
First, Earth's cryosphere is changing as one would expect in a warming climate. These changes include glacier retreat, thinning and areal reduction of Arctic sea ice, reductions in permafrost and accelerated loss of mass from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Second, the global sea level is rising. The rise is caused in part by water pouring in from melting glaciers and ice sheets, but also by thermal expansion as the oceans warm. Third, decades of biological data on blooming dates and the like suggest that spring is arriving earlier each year.
Denialists often maintain that these changes are just a symptom of natural climate variability. But when climate modellers test this assertion by running their simulations with greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide held fixed, the results bear little resemblance to the observed warming. The strong implication is that increased greenhouse-gas emissions have played an important part in recent warming, meaning that curbing the world's voracious appetite for carbon is essential ...*
Nature 462, 545 (3 December 2009)
Tiger's a golf-savant, with freakish abilities in the ultimate See Me-Dig Me individual professional sporting event, a Taylor-Made hero for the age, no?
poic wrote:
Funny thing about "economists" this morning... My spouse, who thinks my economy obsession is just more proof that I'm a doofus male (like any more proof is really needed), says to me this morning: "When did economics become a science? I thought it was considered philosophy? Why does anybody care what economists think?" I didn't know.
1 currency now -yogi wrote 10:28 am
"And if the dollar is worthless, then gold's dollar price is irrelevant."
how about instead of being worthless...the dollar is worth less
Since we're off in the weeds with TigerTalk.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- State water officials said Thursday it could cost $10.6 billion to send water to Southern California through a proposed project of tunnels under the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.
The Department of Water Resources presented the cost estimate to a group of state and federal agencies studying ideas to safeguard water deliveries from the delta.
Two tunnels, about 150 feet underground, are being considered as an alternative to building a proposed canal around the fragile estuary. A third tunnel would serve as an intake tunnel, completing the 43-mile path under the delta.
Calif. eyes $10.6 billion cost for water tunnel - Sacramento News - Local and Breaking Sacramento News | Sacramento Bee
---I'm guessing it will ultimately cost 18.9 Billion.
nikola tesla wrote:
Ahhh. love is in the air.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 12:45 pm
The key thing for the nobility is to seed the peasants brains with faux heroes. The peasant's brains will do the rest.
TW is not a faux hero, he is a genuine golf prodigy. People just get stupid to the point of assuming he walks on water and doesn't defecate, and eventually correction comes along.
Captain Morgan-
The problem is that the generational size is not the same. Both Boomers and Millennials are huge cohorts. The generation that would absorb the housing released by the boomers is tiny compared to both. Thus they will not generate sufficient demand for the higher sized housing nor release enough of the lower sized housing.
Add to this the added carrying cost of housing - taxes and insurance - additional space becomes very expensive. Thus I think it is more than likely that there will simultaneously be a glut and a shortage of housing.
Vonbek777 wrote:
I actually did a google search, before I realized you were suggesting such a story be written
You've already got me hooked, but I'm no nova, so the storyline will end up somewhat flatter...
HomeGnome wrote:
Is that in Euro's or newly minted Bernanke bucks. If its the later you need to move the decimal to the right 2 places.
speaking of sunspots
SpaceWeather.com: Sunspot Plotter
Thank you for your input Pavel, but I was specifically asking Rob what he thought about the sunspot/pore debate going on with sun watchers. Many so called spots are being counted because of better technology but this causes problems when comparing the counts to historical data. We are going through a definition debate so to speak. Some believe NASA has been revising sunspot counts like the government does with unemployment date...
But yes always dangerous to throw out the baby with the bathwater assuming there was a baby there in the first place.
http://209.197.93.201/TrillionDollarBill-Bernanke-small.jpg
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Pavel, I take it you haven't seen the reaction to that editorial? Here's but one. Do you really wnt to stick up for the side of a political debate that calls their opponents denialists?
,rad noob,
I herd it on the bovine, that stocks of said quatroped are dropping like crazy here on the left-coast.
Meat can only go up in price, as the ranchers are losing money right now, as it is...
HITLER! HITLER!
Soooooooooooooweeeeeeeeeee!
pavel.chichikov wrote:
You don't deny global warming - or the effect of free money on the economy - because of science. It's all ideology.
If global warming is caused by humans then EITHER: Liberals are right -OR- the denier's deity doesn't really love Merica as much as the person thinks.
Neither of these stories can be reconciled by the deniers bullshit machine (human brain = bullshit machine), so an alternate story is created.
Note: this is true for all "unprovable" controversial topics.
Sorry California, Your credit card was declined... Perhaps you have another we can try?
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Officials at two bank-run dark pools -- the anonymous stock-trading venues that face sweeping rule changes -- expect U.S. regulators to modify a proposal that would make it immediately clear where trading takes place.
The Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs Group Inc officials told Markets Media's Global Markets Summit that two of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's three proposals to shed more light on dark pools would likely be adopted next year.
The third proposal, requiring all dark pools to identify themselves in real time when they report trading, would dissuade investors from using the venues, the officials said late on Thursday.
Bank-run dark pools see change to one SEC proposal
| Reuters
Economists are like mimes. They never say anything useful.
Do mimes have the right to remain silent?
Rob, show me that sea level is not rising, the arctic ice cap is not shrinking and thinning, and I will reassess my position. What people call one another is not relevant to the facts.
Olympic Torch Relay heads to Vancouver - The Big Picture - Boston.com
56 ethnicities of China
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
It's a North American problem, but Canadian pork and beef farmers are worse of than their American counterparts because we had a head-start. However, you're catching up quickly, and your dairy farmers are in an equivalent financial position to Canadian pork farmers. It's pretty ugly for anyone with ungulates in their barn.
A mime is a horrible thing to waste.
That pretty much sums up exactly what is happeing in my area. FTHBers want a 3/2 1500 sqft place for under $170k. What we keep getting are either Mc Mansions or tiny WW2 boxes priced at 200 $/sqft. As you can expect, these don't sell for cr@p.
"pavel.chichikov wrote:
Denialists "
I didn't write that.
" And he said the young man was doing just what college students are supposed to do -- questioning conventional wisdom.
But he says the student's suggestion is not one he's going to follow."
That pretty much sums up this administration and the agent of change.
- NY Times
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Potent word with obvious implications
The real climate change catastrophe - Telegraph
crazyv wrote:
Thank goodness we all grow out of that and into a life of lemming-like conformation.
[sticks it to the man by putting his feet on his desk]
But fear not, you can extract a doom from the perkiest jobs report:
THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST » » WHY THE GOOD JOBS REPORT COULD BE BAD NEWS FOR 2010
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I would claim that "golf prodigy" and "hero" should never be used in the same book. But, sports and hero are part of the male reality.
noob<
I thought you stuck it to the man by having two Molson's at lunchtime on BFFs.
crazyv wrote:
I think you are right and interesting points, but sometimes solutions come in unexpected ways, just like the problems.
I know several older than boomers who are true snowbirds, own (outright) a house in FL and a house in the north, and spend 6 months out of the year at each. Most of those are financially well off but if something happened and push came to shove, they could sell one if needed. Enough of that going on and it makes the situation worse, and I bet most people aren't was well off as they are.
I suspect that many boomers already own their downsize house or retirement home, based on anecdotal accounts.
Does the data back that up or disprove it? I don't remember seeing data on that.
---and my CowBank was nearly full of chickenshit.
Damn.
,rad pavel,
The irony of ironies being, that just a few hundred years ago, one could only see the weather as far as their eyesight would allow them.
We have reliable historical data by the reams, with powerful computer models showing us what's coming, along with everything else you mentioned.
Why some people choose to chain themselves to the past way of thinking, is beyond me...
It's akin to somebody clinging to a Wright Model B airplane in 2009 as the way to get around, why?
Hey Scone, hows the new house?
How's the cat?
Where's Sebastian?
"When did it become a science?" Neoclassical economics is neither a science nor philosophy. It is a religion.
Yahoo Confirms: Holiday Blowout Cancelled - Yahoo - Gawker
Too bad....looks like a fun time
nikola tesla wrote:
hahaha! good 1.
HomeGnome wrote:
---Yep. He made his getaway on a bike.
we had a guy with a gun last summer walk into the local real estate office of Coldwell Banker and passed a note to the receptionist to fill a bag with money. after the staff spent 10 minutes explaining it was not a bank he ran down the street to a B of A where he was promptly arrested.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Is it possible for people to acknowledge that those things are happening without believing that they are due to human actions i.e. part of the natural process. If so would it not be consistent to argue that reducing Co2 would have not effect on the warming?
I think the problem is that there many who are unwilling to even acknowledge that things are changing or has been posted here that "the climate changes all the time"
IMO if the change is caused by human action we are not going to be able to do anything about it- it is just outside the scope of the human cognitive capacity to deal with it. The Indians and Chinese are not going to accept that they have to accept a permanently lower standard of living when compared with the United States and the rest of the developed world. And there is no way that the developed world will accept a lower standard of living. Given that I think we should be preparing ourselves to deal with the inevitable climate change - that at least gets us out of having to argue what the cause is and start dealing with the consequences.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
> The people of the Maldives had no problems surviving the 17th century, which was 50cm higher than now. Nor the last century, where it rose by 20cm. This bodes well for their prospects of surviving the next change.
"Rob, show me that... the arctic ice cap is not shrinking and thinning,"
IJIS Web Site
Anything else I can do to help?
breaking
Obama likely to back idea to use TARP funds to create jobs - washingtonpost.com
Hi LL, I'm not in the new house yet. The DH is, and he's coming back next week to help drive us to NH. Schrodinger the cat is too old to get on a plane, they say, so she'll be in the back, in a big dog-size carrier, with a cat box and everything. We would have flown her, but you need a certificate of health to do that, and she's just too old. She's going blind in one eye, for example, and that makes her look terrible. She still likes her salmon, though.
Dollars Pins Color-Bar to Red
i dunno, ask Ipodious
Oh god. Climate change debate. Time to clean the litter box.
i'm a denialist. i think we used to be called skeptics. some of us used to be called "scientists". now, it's just denialists and the high priests of climatology... they're commonly called climatologists.
i think tom cruise is into climatology now.
one better
Some stadium somewhere, tryin to get out.
tg wrote:
Does anyone remember this book:
Amazon.com: The Greening (9780962664625): Larry Abraham, Franklin Sanders: Books
Written in 1993, it laid out the whole plan.
How can you be sure that data isn't fake, Rob?
The ice caps haven’t been melting as the alarmists and the models predicted they should. The Antarctic, containing nearly 90 per cent of all the ice in the world, has actually been cooling over the past 30 years, not warming. The polar bears are not drowning – there are four times more of them now than there were 40 years ago. In recent decades, the number of hurricanes and droughts have gone markedly down, not up.
Speaking of ice, this passage slips over the question: Is the Arctic ice cap thinning and shrinking or is it not.? Why does the article do that? Why not just show us that the ice cap is not thinning and shrinking? If it did, I would give it a lot more serous attention than I feel inclined to do.
I will give it this credit: The consequences of climate change may very well be as catastrophic as the article says. Ignoring climate change will not prevent the consequences. But never fear, skeptics, the chances are that not enough can or will be done to prevent these consequences.
Perhaps the IPCC, under pressure from the Saudis and other energy producers, are being much more optimistic than the situation warrants. Yes, the IPCC may turn out to be basically in the corner of the skeptics.
Climate-change isn't just weather-related...
This summer, there were no pesky Meat-Bees here. They are always a constant bother, especially when you are eating outside. In years past, bunches at a time would show up and linger over your food.
Where'd they go?
What little beasties have gone missing in your neighborhood?
Hey, Juvie, on NPR they had a thing about analyzing Brittish sea captain's logs, like
Captain Cook, as to weather and currents. Lots more records going back hundreds
of years very well kept.
The sunspots are working well enough so that the hub's ham radio contests are
not boring for him.
The hub has given up on anybody doing anything on global warming until actual
disaster is in the air.
And yes sports ability doesn't mean hero any more than legal ability,
or science ability or mathematical ability. All those experts can be pieces of crap
personally.
RockyR wrote:
It's easier be a realist. The climate is changing, I'll be dead before anything bad happens. So much easier my way.
nikola tesla wrote:
Well, let's let them get it all out of their system in this thread so it doesn't muddy the next one.
Not that I've been much better, talking about chicken poop and all.
But, in all fairness, there's not much more to be said about unemplo that hasn't already been said.
I love Scone's catz name!
lawyerliz wrote:
Indeed, but I'd be paralysed with indecision when it came time to open the crate.
lawyerliz wrote:
No other path is possible. We can't even figure out free money causes a problem, how is climate change going to be addressed.
Boy, if you looked at Tiger Woods as a role model for anything beyond hitting a golf ball that's really pathetic.
broward wrote:
First rule of controversial topics. Data that agrees with you is never wrong.
show me that sea level IS rising and the arctic ice cap IS shrinking and thinning..........what can be done since China and India won't go along with protocols? Nothing that makes a difference.
....and I don't know what "cows" you've been talking to, but MINE won't eat chicken-shit hay.............besides........that goes in the garden....even the cows know THAT!
Hey, I didn't even notice that I could have put my DOW 10.5K hat on for a few seconds today
Tiger was packaged well, and truth be said, I don't follow golf aside from knowing who the best players are, and in all these years, I never heard one thing about Tiger, the guy away from the golf course, that is.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I will bet you guys are a riot @ parties.
Rob,
The graph doesn't seem to show that the cap is not shrinking, unless you want to calculate shrinkage one year at a time, instead of decade to decade. Nor does the graph show the kind of ice under discussion. Nor does it tell us anything about the effect of thinning ice and shrinking summer ice on planetary albedo.
Track the lines on the graph again, using the color code.
But thanks for the link.
What about Peak Oil? I think that is a real possibility.
Haven't seen any comments on the Average Work Week going from 33.0 to 33.2 hours. News too positive to make the cut?
Several economists, CR included, have suggested that this will be the first step toward an employment recovery. While I personally don't see where long-term jobs will be coming from, the foreclosure moratorium even in the face of not paying the mortgage has saved a lot of jobs short-term.
show me that sea level IS rising and the arctic ice cap IS shrinking and thinning..........what can be done since China and India won't go along with protocols? Nothing that makes a difference.
I tend to agree with you.
RECLAIM
noaa is using this
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Exactly. That's why all this is pointless. If we can't agree on free money is bad, why worry about something as complex as global warming. We should prioritize the most pressing problems, mine are:
Is free money bad?
Has the lack of enforcement of speeding laws caused the downfall of morals in Merica?
Let's address THESE first.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
it is not - the discount rate in most peoples minds for the future is just too high for them to take any action today. There was a theory some years ago that there is no other intelligent life in the universe not because there never was but because the technology of an intelligent species will exceed their ability to deal with it. At the time it was postulated that they destroyed themselves with devastating weapons but it could just as easily have been something like climate change which exceeded the ability to adapt.
"The hub has given up on anybody doing anything on global warming until actual disaster is in the air. "
I think we're going to have bigger fish to fry than climate change. But I suppose the ManBearPig! movement has gone evangelical. Not saying that we're not damaging the planet...just that the proposed solutions might be worse than the disease.
Climate change happens in earnest next week, our first storm of the year...
(waxes poetically, dreaming of skiing)
"show me the ice cap is shrinking" Sarah Palin can't see it from Alaska anymore. Just Putin in a boat.
lawyerliz
the project is called RECLAIM
link before just posted it.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
There we plans for Arctic shipping lanes in the 1850's too. They were kept secret tho. The Illuminate.
picosec wrote:
didn't read my post minutes after the number- there was nothing weak about this report.
Indeed, but I'd be paralysed with indecision when it came time to open the crate. - ng
apparatchica liz,
It must be lonely being a ham-operator since the internet popped up, no?
Interesting info on weather, i'll check it out...
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Like,If I had a few extra Million under the bed could I bag a babe like Jamiee?
All I know is that as more and more time goes by I think we are Schrodinger's cat. God is running the experiment and good ole mother earth is answering the question of whether we're alive or not.
"Anonymous Bosch (profile) wrote on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 11:07 am
reply ignore user
Where's Sebastian?"
On my bike ride over to Starbucks I passed Sebastian on another bike. He was pretty loaded down with bags stuffed with plane parts.
crazyv wrote:
But would it really be intelligent life then?
Green Chip Review
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Yeah this may even be good for him us homophobe self denialists were wondering.
Pav,
that's what you asked for. Evidence of "not thinning. Look to the center low point. 2006 was "normal" and then 2007 was an outlier that's been repairing for the last 2 years almost back to normal. The 2007 event has been generally acknowledged to be a wind driven phenomena. For longer periods there was the 1946 Navy expedition through the northwest passage, and earlier. And for other ice coverage google the debacle when "scientists" announced they had discovered a Greenland peninsula was in fact an island exposed because of global warming. That was all the rage until a map from the early 1950s showed it an island too. Arctic ice is trending down and Antarctic is trending up. Precession seems a culprit, nobody knows but ice while low is still within historical bounds.
What if dinosaurs had access to the internet?
Tiger turned out to be a Lion Cheetah.
crazyv wrote:
It was indeed a confirmation of the current recovery.
Where's Sebastian?
---He's running from The Blade Runner; Decker.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Like EPet, Etoy and say Enron?
back to Tiger
Like our currency we have devalued the term Hero. He is a great golf player - not sure what makes him a hero or even a role model other than on a golf course or some other sporting venture. We described those who died at WTC as heroes. Other than the firemen who charged into a burning building a deserve the accolade what exactly did the rest do- they went to work like 138,000,000 million others.
Not saying that we're not damaging the planet...just that the proposed solutions might be worse than the disease.
As the guy who jumped off a tall building said to the man on the fiftieth floor: So far so good.
Yes, the real question here concerns whether or not this species of ours is adaptive. Solutions may or may not be terribly disruptive. It depends on how they would be applied. But maybe the real question is whether or not these solutions would be effective.
Well, maybe something will turn up.
"At the time it was postulated that they destroyed themselves with devastating weapons but it could just as easily have been something like climate change which exceeded the ability to adapt."
I can just see the posters now: "Climate change killed the aliens...Don't let it happen to you!"
Unproven science vs. unproven existence. Love it!
I didn't know anyone actually read the Spectator - and now it's cited as a source of - of all things - facts. That is an extreme right wingnut political rag - is it not ?
nova wrote:
Rate of change matters in many situations.
The dollar is worth only about 90% of what it was, but it took about 100 years. Not good, but not disaster. If we lost 90% overnight, it would probably be disaster.
I've wondered if TPTB are convinced peak oil is real, due to all of the hydrogen nonsense. Hydrogen only makes sense if you are out of oil, or have massive amounts of excess base load electricity.
If you're a cop and you happen to get shot; you are an instant hero.
Methinks ,rad Dawgma likes to be on the other side of things, as better to de-bait people.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
The current thinking is that the climate change from about 2,000,000- 3,000,000 is what propelled the evolution of Homo Erectus.
crazyv wrote:
Hero debasement. Fiat Heroes. Hero inflation.
Krugman calls for more heroes.
Gavshire Hathaway wrote:
Now that's funny.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
They spent so much time blogging they neglected to build that asteroid interceptor PASA (Pangea Air & Space Administration) said was so important.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
No, he's a SOLID PT #1.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
There would be a lot more heroes today if governments would just increase their hero stimulus enough and stop worrying about deficits.
I still rue the day, I invested in anvil.com stock.
"What if dinosaurs had access to the internet?" After that asteroid hit the earth they would be debating whether the data showing a problem was real or ginned up in some conspiracy by dinasaur climatologist.
Dawg scores 0.5/ -3.6
The problem lies in the imputation of those events purely to human activity. Notice that they refer to the researchers' models as a counterargument to idea that this could just be natural variation. But those models are one of the primary things that took a credibility hit after the recent leak. I might add that I don't put a lot of trust in computer models in the best of times; when evidence surfaces of deliberate data manipulation, there's even less reason to trust them.
JP wrote:
I'm lovin' me some USD/JPY cross movement. Gotta love it moving up so much in a single day!
I don’t know why we don’t use climate change as a barrier to entry for goods manufactured in China or elsewhere which is
’ing our manufacturing base due to not only cheap labor, but complete lack of environmental regulations. We could easily impost an import carbon tax on goods imported based upon the amount of carbon emissions from manufacturing and transporting the goods to market. I don’t really care about global warming (I agree with NaRM). But why not use it as a backhanded trade protectionism. Even if you don't agree with global warming I think everyone can agree the amount of toxic crap being dumped by 3rd world countries into the enviromment is not a good thing. Mercury in fish, pollution across the Pacific. etc...
Kansas City, Kan., lawyer is a man who could be king — in Nigeria
Kansas City, Kan., lawyer is a man who could be king – in Nigeria - KansasCity.com
2 thoughts
The movie 'Coming to America'
Mel Brooks History of the World Part 1 "It's good to be king"
BFF Poll is still open.
bbartlog wrote:
Which is why this entire topic is ideological. It's the Political Type 2's vs the 1's. Another variation of the nature/nurture debate, with different announcers, color commentators and statics.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Given all this cliff-diving, I'd have expected that to have done quite well. Certainly my ACME stock has been a superstar for me.
yagij wrote:
I've been watching that all day yagij. I'm ready to pounce on a few anytime.
BFF poll?
*Arctic ice is trending down and Antarctic is trending up. *
Rob, the evidence for the former is empirical. We're speaking of summer ice, and not over the past few years but over decades, aren't we,or shouldn't we?
If one approaches the issue in terms of a charge that everyone who disagrees with your position is a knave and a fool, the argument becomes a useless packet of noise.
Go to the people who maintain that the ice cap is thinning and shrinking, assess their data and conclusions, and then rebut on the basis of scientific judgment.
Challenge them and try to get answers. Weigh the answers.
When I see reports of ship passages along the northern Russian, Siberian coasts, between Japan and Norway, the reports impress me.
nikola,
I think a superior analogy is the asteroid hitting the earth while the dinosaurs are worried about whether T-Rex overpopulation has caused the tides to shift.
Yeah, the tides are shifting. But I doubt an Ocean Use Tax would have helped things much.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will be rebalanced after the close of U.S. exchanges today to account for Bank of America Corp.’s sale of 1.286 billion shares.
stock's been trading like a disaster all day...
A little help from S&P to get a bid under your billion share offer....priceless!
BAC buyer;s
fudge_hend wrote:
Oddly enough, however, the GW deniers would NOT have been in the "pollution is bad" camp, only 40 years ago. "Pollution is bad" was another liberal conspiracy, ya know. To sap our vital fluid so the godless commies could overrun us.
Edit: Pavil, bet you didn't know that. You godless commie were part of the environmental movement. You guys started that entire thing to help you win the cold war. Ask one of the old-fart PT 1's about THAT conspiracy.
crazyv wrote:
Thank you! Long and strong in 2030 (or at the real bottom circa 2026 or so)...