Seasonal Retail Hiring, Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 6:26am (195 comments)
in
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NFP was a surprise--B/D numbers?
So basically the better numbers this month is only a small bump in retail hiring for the Holidays...Hoocodanode?
I think thats a bingo Kristina. Thanks for the link in the previous thread regarding fear and the unemployed.
What happens with elevated unemployment and the final $-leg-down leading to the inevitable inflationary debt-monster?
note: entirely rhetorical. same thing as what happens to a sleeping zebra guarded by a pride of lions...
This really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008.
With the retail sales this year being as bad as they were in 2008, would the retail hiring do any better?
I think what we may be seeing is the middle peak of the W in the rear view mirror. Result of C for C, homebuyer tax credit, stimulus spending. This was reflected in the GDP number. The employment number lagged and is now showing up. Indications are that things went south again in November. Retail sales, for example, and ISM. If so, the middle peak may be over. Not much of a peak. We'll see in a month or two if we are entering the downward slope of the right half of the W.
No further analysis needed, it's Obama party time rock n roll the love boat is set to cruise...I'm watching CNBC.
With modern processing it shouldn't be too hard for a "private sector" for-profit- or commie open-source- researcher to shadow the official numbers.
But who cares? 10% or 10.5%-- meaningless in the aggregate without details of hourly wages, productivity, benefits, job security, safety, and most importantly: who gets to decide and consume what gets produced.
MrM wrote:
A month or two ago, when holiday retail workforce expansion plans were being finalized, retail sales were expected to improve. The bad November might impact December employment though.
everything's all green
My brain is a big fuzzball this morning, but did you say Goldman predicted 100,000 jobs lost in November and there were only 10,000? Maybe I have that wrong.
If that's the case, combined with their recent call on gold going up and now it's down, their call track record is not looking too healthy.
I want to hear from Meredith.
Yalt - you beat me to it. The retail hiring reflected greenshoots expectations. November numbers suggest this was a mistake.
I still say its a "J" as RRE and CRE continue to decline, evidence too in hotel industry and other service industries which are probably reflective of demand destruction. I don't know but the santa-clause of spending today and pay tomorrow may be coming to an abrupt close if retail sales are flat from last year.
In theory, close to 90% of the people in our country are still working, but it's the 6 degrees of separation, and the speed of information transfer that's got people thinking that the numbers are well and truly cooked.
We human beans respond to monumental numbers, the number 10 in this instance.
It was very important that Dow Jonestown got over 10k, as it is as equally important that the unemployment number get under 10.
OT
Nice one Linus. I take it no one will pay attention to any of your bullshit any longer? [Except Bloomberg, and sell-side].
What I haven't figure out is: if the extra hiring was in retail, why did average hourly wages tick up? Retail's not exactly known for outstanding pay.
I need
advice:
Bought UGL 2x gold etf about 4-5 weeks ago. Up about 30% in that time frame. Today has me thinking of running for the exits! Long term I feel bullish but I'm thinking of short term profits. Thoughts?
Yalt wrote:
Wall Street BONUS SEASON!
Where are they ?
Civilian labor force - 98.000 ( - 1.1 M since 05/09 )
Not in labor force + 291.000 ( + 2.5 M since 05/09)
Kristina<
HAPPY 29th BIRTHDAY!
Don't forget JD, that 10% is not counting the underemployed, self-employed, given up, etc. Unless I'm wrong about that. Like I said, my brain is running on 386 this morning (as opposed to pentium, if my humor is also failing).
I'd say UE (un- or under-) is actually closer to 20%. Still, that's 80%+ who still have jobs.
I'd treat paper pyrite like any other stock, and take my winnings and not get greedy, while the getting out is good.
melinand wrote:
internet message boards.
yalt
nope i think they are playing their games,not at message boards.
What percentage of that 80% work for government? State, local, federal? My state is the largest employer in the state.
You know, if unemployment goes down, that means that companies are hiring. As the economy shows us the consumer segment is down, does this not mean ADDED cost and LESS profits for companies? Why then should the market go up on this news - NOTHING else changed around it, and it was prepared for worse - so added cost should be a bad thing.
tncubsfan:
Jesse's Café Américain: Gold Chart Weekly Updated - Taking Some Profits
"Where are they/" The Island of Unwanted toys and Displaced Workers. Didn't you watch Rudolph the other night?
Yay!
Looks like we may have kicked off the next wave of the bubble.
I
The employment numbers are perfectly consistent with the continuing claims and initial claims numbers from recent months. A week ago I ran a couple of regressions and posted the following forecasts for the November employment numbers: unemployment = 10%, change in payroll employment = -10,795. Not bad! I think this is tremendously good news for the economy and a sign that the recovery is going to be stronger than people think. More analysis at my blog. Creative Destruction
Current Employment Statistics
Highlights
November 2009
http://stats.bls.gov/web/ceshighlights.pdf
Nanoo - Yup, lucky them.
New career aspirations: When I grow up, I want a govt. job.
Stay long, this is the eye of the storm passing over........nothing more, do some research we have a lot of upside coming. Besides that, what makes one think the dollar is strong?
It's toilet paper.....and while your selling Our Chinese Maters are buying, on the dip.
This is inflationary news. So gold goes down. please!
Good god, sell your gold. The bubble's going to burst, it's only a question of when.
Obama is my hero. Has a jobs summit and the next day he sees results. who could ask for anything more?
You don't think the gold market is being manipulated; do you?
nikola tesla wrote:
Didn't David Rosenberg put out a report last summer about this? How we would see various indicators peak out and then turn back down. Yesterday's ISM number made me think that he might be spot on. Anyone recall that report and have a link to it? TIA
Pakistan Taliban Takes Responsibility for Deadly Mosque Attack - Bloomberg.com
A lazy government worker, contributing nothing. No loss.
In November, payroll employment losses in construction, manufacturing, and information
were offset by job gains in professional and business services and health care.
http://stats.bls.gov/web/ceshighlights.pdf
PAGE 5
Hey America,
What do we do with all of the people in prisons (we're #1 worldwide) when we can no longer afford to keep them in the manner in which they've come accustomed to, because we can't afford it anymore...
Wish both the convicts & assorted prison apparatchiks into the cornfield?
Are Pakistani police unionized?
If so, they lost a dues paying member.
"retailers hired 321.3 thousand workers in November (NSA), an increase from the 233.7 thousand last year"
Good to see Amerika is adding or creating such valuable jobs. Most of them pay less than UE and definitely don't last as long.
• Employment in temporary help services rose by 52,000 in November. Since reaching a
recent employment low in July, the industry has added 117,000 jobs.
• Since 1990, peaks and troughs in temporary help services employment have preceded
those of total nonfarm employment on 3 occasions—temporary help services reached a
high point in 2000, 10 months before total nonfarm; hit a low point in 2003, 4 months
before total nonfarm; and reached another high point in 2006, 12 months prior to total
nonfarm.
http://stats.bls.gov/web/ceshighlights.pdf
Page 9
While I am at it maybe I will buy 2 more houses also....what do you think?
November's stronger than expected retail hiring may result in weaker than expected December retail hiring. Especially if the initial weak holiday sales numbers continue.
Regardless of how weak or strong seasonal retail hiring is, I'm still wondering where the long term sustainable job growth is going to come from. I seriously doubt we will see a pick up in residential or non-residential starts any time soon.
Where will the jobs come from? Health care(?) - yeah, foreigners are going to lend us money for OUR health care. I don't see it.
shill wrote:
We have had a lot of deflation over the past coupla years. What has happened to gold prices ?
Gold is the ultimate beanie baby.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Will Be Jailed For Food: To Poorest Americans Incarceration Is An All-Inclusive Welfare Getaway Opportunity - By Yasha Levine - The eXiled
cweise -- nice job with the projections and you could be right. I still think this is the tempoary peak in the W or, as Mish would have it, the wwwwws over an extended period. We'll see.
We have had a lot of deflation over the past coupla years. What has happened to gold prices ?
Gold is the ultimate beanie baby.
And the dollar is the ultimate tissue....white cloud extra soft.
Who is more likely to wrestle the attacker strapped with bombs- a scab with no security or someone with his family protected?
,rad bearly,
To get compared to something one can procure for 50 cents (if they are deft of hand, and have a good clear line on the prize) out of the claw machine @ Denny's, is a bit harsh.
But it works for you...
Wasn't there a study done that showed 80% (or more) of US currency tainted with cocaine residue?
Ironic, I think.
For the die hard
crowd, a little snippet from Naked Capitalism.
"Despite its following among a lot of financial blog readers, the gold standard has a bad name for a good reason. Inflation is MORE VOLATILE with a gold standard than under our current regime (check the stats here before you start ranting, the evidence is overwhelming) and with a gold standard, you can and do get deflation. That means formal monetization is less likely than its fans want to believe. But informal monetization, as a store of value in times of uncertainty, is another matter. People also used to use diamonds for this purpose, but now that they can be manufactured, they are less useful."
JD<
Somehow you don't strike me as the Denny's type.
Denny's menu is for functional illiterates, as everything has a photo...
enough said.
Part of the U6 crowd.
daveinsv wrote:
Link, if anyone has it handy?
Whiskey wrote:
If I was an entrepreneur, I'd find a way to open my own private prison, give the inmates their three squares a day, and in return demand they work tirelessly in my fields or factories.
It would almost be like I owned them...
noob goldberg wrote:
They could be indebted serfants.
noob goldberg wrote:
Or cubicle farm in Redmond.
Poached quail eggs and kobe steak for breakfast again then, sir?
Kristina, thanks for the link earlier.
What's really scary is that I could have written that column myself.
Isn't that market already saturated, and how do you play to compete when people can outsource to Chinese prison labor?
U.S. recovery appears firmer as unemployment drops
| Reuters
noob,
Do a little research about US Prison Industries; you might be surprised and start to think the War on Drugs is a complete joke.
Angola? Parchment Farm?
In my favorite book on the Great Depression, "Ten Lost Years", one of the stories was of a guy that worked on the Winnipeg PD, and just as it got cold every fall, for a few years in the mid 1930's, this guy would throw a brick through the plate-glass window of he police department, and turn himself in, and get thrown in jail for the winter.
The cop said they got wise to him after a few years, and nabbed him on a cold day, as he was just about to do his crime so he could spend some time, somewhere.
When you've spent the last 2 years throwing 8 million people under the bus it is inevitable that you discover you really do need telephone sanitizers. You also discover that people retire and you've inadvertently held on to some of the "wrong" people who will need to be replaced. So what do you? Why you hire back 4% of those on a temporary basis.
And a special wishes on this the 14th anniversary of her 29th birthday to Kristina.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Serfs repaying their private debt to me work around back in Building C.
Guests of the government repaying their debts to society are in Buildings A and B.
I am not surprised by the downward revisions to job loss #s over the past couple of months. This month's stunning improvement is a shock to me and should get revised away.
I will be stunned if the trend continues & there are job gains in the first part of next year. I know of quite a few companies planning cuts after Jan1. Might change if Obama slams a quick tax cut or incentive program in. We'll see.
The market might not like this number once it has a chance to digest it.
By that I mean I think the market has already priced in another fiscal stimulus plan and interest rates held down till 2011. If these numbers hold (I think we'll see another round of layoffs after the first of the year due to a lack of final demand) then those assumptions have to be rethought. No way a large scale stimulus passes when things are 'good' and getting better.
Again the Chinese Masters are just sitting back....and laughing.
China urged to avoid open markets when buying gold | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
Small businesses I think will likely the story. Like you said, we'll see. Too many stories from people here who talk to local merchants who have done all they can to stay in business and don't see the light at the end of the tunnel.
HomeGnome wrote:
Oh, I know I'm woefully uninformed in that area. But I'm not certain I wish to swallow that red pill yet. However, I refuse to take the blue pill.
Is there any way I can take a purple pill and become only mildly informed? I'm not a complete cynical bastard yet, and I have a feeling knowing about the workings of that industry might push me over the edge.
EDIT: I watched the movie 'Secrecy', which I highly recommend, and it made me pretty depressed for a few days. And it was actually a very balanced exposition on the topic, staying away from all the
subjects.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 10:02 am
If I was an entrepreneur, I'd find a way to open my own private prison, give the inmates their three squares a day, and in return demand they work tirelessly in my fields or factories.
Better yet, since you were privatized, you could find ways to cut costs by lowering their living conditions to the point where you have a barely functional gulag. Less costs means more $$$ for you!!
edit: and hiring the cheapest thugs you can find
shill wrote:
ah Shill- still trying to find logic in market action
If employment goes up that means there are more people with income to spend on my companies products which means my company will make more money therefore I should buy stock. If employment goes down my company has shed workers and is therefore more profitable therefore I should buy stock.
resistanceisfeudal
why hire the thugs just pick them out of the prison population and give "treats for good work"
shill wrote:
Yeah, that seems like an unbiased news source.
U-6 non-seasonally adjusted increased from 16.3% to 16.4%, while the seasaonally adjusted number decreased from 17.5% to 17.2%...EMRATIO flat...so was the U-3 decline all about reducing the labor force participants?
Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Oh, I don't even pay the thugs. I simply hold gladiatorial skirmishes every Friday night and task the winners to be the guards. They get extra benefits (food, hookers, etc), along with an implicit, but never written, promise of a big bag full of cash when they leave.
EDIT: [Shakes tiny fist at gabyjan]
Entrepreneurs? Ha!
You start the prison business. Then ship all the inmates to China. Put them to work making uniforms and license plates. Re-import those and have a win-win-win business model.
Angry Saver wrote:
of course- didn't you see that the Senate just passed an amendment requiring insurance companies to cover routine mammograms even though a blue ribbon panel said the benefits didn't justify the costs. Oh yes that is the way we are going to control costs and get health insurance premiums down.
"This suggests retailers are a little more optimistic than last year."
Yep and a trip to the mall, or a look at the numbers from Black Friday shows just how misplaced that optimism was. Isn't it Stock Broker bonus season, and aren't the TARP eaters looking to raise crapital...
Also, the mean and median duration of employment continues to ramp up on both an adjusted and unadjusted basis:
Duration of Unemployment
This website is like a financial Rosetta Stone, as it's all historical information, right from the pages of the Morris County Daily Record...
Historic prices survey, Morris County New Jersey
Anything happen in 1933?, class
Outsider wrote:
uh huh
you want fries widdat?
I was reading the comments from last night’s thread and was not surprised by how strongly people believe we can change the world by working within the system. Just get out there and make some calls, get some face time with the politicians, mobilize the masses. I am also completely certain that it would be a waste of time.
If anything, all that will do is clear some underbrush and rocks for the beasts that are coming. The model and system is broken. The philosophy, the worldview, the entire consumer driven version of exploitation capitalism we have lived by is dysfunctional. Right now, somewhere, someone is thinking about the next wave. Perhaps more than one person. When they articulate it, and distribute it, the next era will begin. Only a new idea will change where we are.
Whether it will be cloaked in the trappings of a religion or as political movement; it will require change. The best we can hope for is that two new and competing belief systems are not born in our lifetimes. One will be challenging enough. Two will be a nightmare.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 10:14 am
Oh, I don't even pay the thugs. I simply hold gladiatorial skirmishes every Friday night and task the winners to be the guards. They get extra benefits (food, hookers, etc), along with an implicit, but never written, promise of a big bag full of cash when they leave.
Good point! Allowing prisoners to compete with each other to become authorities over one another will really improve the quality of the applicant pool.
crazyv wrote:
The Canadian government has also started instituting 'blue ribbon panels'.
Which I think is kind of appropriate, seeing as that's what we stick onto winning pigs at the county fair.
I saw a guy try and throw a rock through a courthouse window one very cold morning just to go to jail. That was only a few years ago.
Yalt wrote:
anecdotal: brother lives in Lexington, KY area (Winchester)
he says the unemployed are burgeoning there
he says they mostly are found walking around Wallie World shootin the shit with each other
he has a way of expressing himself
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Well, it worked for the
.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
what was the comparison between 1869 and 1909. My guess pretty flat.I think the problem is what happened in 1913
bearly wrote:
Look ... i have a confession to make.
I doubled up on my
etf yesterday, so it was inevitable that it was time for the bubble to burst (I have a knack for this sort of thing).
In future I promise to post all such wildly speculative trades here for the commentariat consumption.
Between me and Cramer, you'll have no excuses for not making money.
OT: but wasn't this a
blog? Where did the in-depth discussion about fiat go to?
Edit: Aha, Bubblisimo Gerkinov has reminded me that I hit ignore on most of the gold bugs. Sorry, carry on.
Angry Saver wrote:
That's an interesting question. If you consider that wealth generating countries spend increasingly more heavily on health care, because it's essentially a luxury above and beyond food & shelter, you would expect Amerika would see declining health care spending, as we have declining wealth.
JP wrote:
The
discussion 
just popped.
Yeah, that seems like an unbiased news source.
I had the same initial reaction, but if you check, Shill's link is a Reuter's article which is expressly linked in his source.
articulated perfectly and gets to the meat of my scary dreams.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
You're joking re: comparisons to 1869, right ?
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 10:16 am
The philosophy, the worldview, the entire consumer driven version of exploitation capitalism we have lived by is dysfunctional.
Exactly. And always has been. Slavery disguised as freedom is still slavery, and a slave-owner disguised as a capitalist is still a slave-owner.
nova: isn't "exploitation capitalism" redundant?
I agree. I've thought about the same. Somehow those ethics classes for the MBAs just isn't working.
Nanoo,
I believe it. I am sure of it. I don't want it. But it is coming.
Yeah, where are all the real time comments as glod smashes through $1200 like there were the last time it smashed through $1200? $40 down, $240 to go.
nova wrote:
start with the absence of money
RiF,
But they ran it so far, and so hard, that they have ended up in a blind alley. It could not have gone anywhere else. That is the nature of this beast. We just get to be around for the endgame.
,rad nova,
I agree 100%, doing something now is like trying to buddy up to the politburo in the late 1980's, where will it get you in our heretofore undesignated brave new world, one which none of us bright-eyes can even imagine looks like, really.
nova wrote:
which will happen on line
nova wrote:
That's just on the domestic side. I caught myself wondering where China is going to source it's raw materials in the future. North America would be too difficult a target, as would Russia. How many resource-rich countries with a minimal military are there in that region?
Then I went for a walk and thought about birds, because some thoughts are too depressing.
EDIT: oh, I've requested your book for Christmas, nova, but we'll see how getting it shipped to Canada works. In any event, if I don't get it for Christmas I'll buy it myself
Rob Dawg wrote:
Woo hoo. It won't drop $240 more without another Lehman. I don't think it drops below $1000 for at least 10 years, assuming a very positive outcome.
We have to start talking now about how
is not like any other asset class... and in the long run it always rises...
,rad bearly,
It's not too late to wake up out of financial hibernation, and smell the coffee...
Measuring Worth - Purchasing Power of US Dollar
Noob,
I read that there are more Chinese in Africa now then there were British at the height of British colonialism.
Lots of money in private prisons, just do the research on shadow owners.
Rob Dawg--so, you're in the 950 camp? I can't say that this is an ill conceived notion.
We were due for sure, We'll see soon enough.
I'm hoping they hold silver at 17.50 - 18.00 and above a grand for gold. I hope, I hope, I hope.
nova wrote:
British colonialism was done with very few Brits. Most of the fighting was done by troops from India. At the peak there were about 50,000 Brits in India. I just goes to show that when you provide basic good government and leave people alone most don't give a damn about who is running things.
,czar CR never reports on the RevPAR numbers in last resorts, as vacancies are few and far between.
exactly and why its frightening. Women fear something different than men do in how scenarios may play out.
I transferred money to a hard currency/gold fund. It took 3 days to go through. That was on Monday. Nice timing as usual.
I opened a trading account yesterday so we should be at the market peak.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 10:25 am
But they ran it so far, and so hard, that they have ended up in a blind alley. It could not have gone anywhere else. That is the nature of this beast. We just get to be around for the endgame.
You can't fix a machine that's designed to break, or a system that's designed to collapse.
nova wrote:
In all honesty, the Chinese are better at colonialism. The British subdued the population with force and then designed a new government to run things. A lot of work.
The Chinese simply immigrate and integrate themselves into the social fabric by taking over small retail outlets.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Substitute "houses" and welcome to 2005 friend.
Rob - This time it's different. Houses aren't the shiny metal of kings, and haven''t been around for 5000 years...
The Chinese simply immigrate and integrate themselves into the social fabric by taking over small retail outlets.
This time they are building roads and other infrastructure work too.
,rad Dawgma,
Wish the fear into the cornfield, and you might be right...
well i got out there and called, the fed. sorry i took exception to bb statement that ss was an entitlement. it isnt they took out for it every week that i worked! in other i bought it on layaway.so no entitlement!
now to find out who always has their hands in the ss cookie jar? treasury? who?
,rad Bosch,
Somebody said I was you and vice versa. Any truth to the rumor?
nova wrote:
Added to the list of things that were supposedly impossible to outsource.
so was the U-3 decline all about reducing the labor force participants?
energyecon,
Today's employment report was better than expected, but not a good report by any means. The labor force continued to decline. Unemployment fell but not for the right reason (more jobs). Unemployment fell because more people left the work force. Not exactly good news for an eCONomy that is founded on consumer debt.
volker the viking wrote:
Thanks. It was just a few days ago somebody else added me to the pile of people who have been wrong about glod because I said "I think we'll see $950 before $1250." There's just too much paper trading for there not to be a technical trading correction.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Good thing if you happen to have a 5000 year investment time horizon! For those of us with slightly less patience, we tend to look at more recent charts. From what I can tell there was a recent period where gold dropped in price for an entire generation. Ouch.
Gold at $1200 is like oil at $100/bbl only less "liquid".
Rob Dawg wrote:
well it wasn't me
gonna be a fun ride from here on out
it's beginning to look a lot like the Austrians suggested
I think I'll get a couple of grants and make the best of it.
I thought we agreed to keep the climate and gold topics for nights/ weekends....
What's going on with swine flu?
Almost Creating Jobs! - Forbes.com
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Exactly. Besides, unlike glod, once you've invested in houses you can't use them for anything until you decide to sell.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Only until we have it priced in a currency that isn't being weakened and QE'd to death...
what a great jobs report!
if retail sales really are disappointing - defined as flat to down yoy... and i'm on record for saying that they WON'T be... -, then the uptick in seasonal hiring should really hurt the retailers come Q1.
given some of this information today, what is the best way to go long on the dollar?
or what about this one,
Dubai CDS rise, Nakheel bond prices fall, UAE Insurance, Banking & Investment - Maktoob Business
To the credit of the goldies: They realize that the jobs report is inflationary, so Ben would need to raise rates if it continues.
The NYSEies, not so much.
given some of this information today, what is the best way to go long on the dollar?
Short the yen. Or gold.
A year ago on the PBS Newshour, there was a story from Zimbabwe, and they had a video of people rooting through a trash dumpster, with a Z$ 10,000,000 banknote on top, a little soiled, but in decent condition. The scavengers just pushed it aside, in their search for something to eat. It meant nothing to them...
It costs about a dime to print either a $100.00 Federal Reserve Note, or a Z $10,000,000 Banknote~
The rest is all added-value.
short the EURO.... DRR (ETF) 2X
Ciao
MS
"As long as lending remains dormant -- and it's been shrinking, according to Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics -- fears of inflation will remain just that: fears.
"If the Fed wasn't buying mortgages with both hands, Mr. Shepherdson estimates, the money supply would be falling 1% a month," wrote Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times last week. Read New York Times story on the feeble recovery.
Hmm, doesn't a falling money supply signify deflation, not inflation?"
Confronting the inflation boogeyman Outside the Box - MarketWatch
Angry Saver wrote:
thank you.
edit: and you too, MS.
Maybe ten cents, no way a metal dime. And they don't actually print very much of the float, as you know.
,rad yogi,
You skin em' both ways, in making seignorage when making the dime.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I was going to raise that, actually, but I didn't want your head to swell too much.
I am curious how rich is making out today.
If this is the start of the dollar spike (and what I expect to be the last good dollar rally), that pushes the timeline forward by a few months compared to my personal expectations.
or UUP (long dollar) recently issued a ton of shares and hasn't been able to get out of it's own way (especially today)...tread lightly on that one....has some issues methinks.
Ciao
MS
Oh yiikes.. The margin clerk is calling the glod holders.
DGZ = gold short
DZZ = gold 2x short
Stock funds suffer more withdrawals Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch
this note is interesting.
Ok, I ran for the exits for now....sold UGL for about a 25% gain in 5 weeks. I was up 30% but I will take it
Now I'm waiting to see where the trend goes in the dollar and commodities.
dum luk wrote:
Eek, I just noticed SRS broke $8.
EDIT: Apparently this happened yesterday. Shows how much I was paying attention.
GM is expanding into India but not the NA unit.
BBC News - New GM-China tie-up to make small cars for India
Beware of hulbert: His use/writing on stats leaves much to be desired.
Observation on gold: The selling commenced at the New York open. Something is unwinding.
Edit: I take that back. It started unwinding @8:35 or so, jobs report. My mistake.
$ just broke above RH..
http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif
Ought to cause some "decisions" to be made 'shortly'.....
Ciao
MS
Good. Now, start losing, Goldfinger. Shall we say ten thousand dollars? No, let's be generous. Let's make it fifteen thousand.
It's pretty fascinating watching the competing forces at work today. Great jobs report pushing the market up while rising dollar trying to pull it down.
When we went off the not-to-be-named standard in 1933, we didn't go off the silver standard at the same time. Aren't all precious metals created equal?
Why didn't we drop the silver-standard until 1964? (and partial silver half dollars 1965-70)
Thanks JP, wasn't familiar with him.
tncubsfan wrote:
In 1998, physical hedgers made up 77% of the derivatives market and index speculators made up 7%. In 2008 that changed to 31% and 41%, respectively.
So any soft commodity fundamental data I could give you would be pretty much useless, as far as I can tell.
Oh, if anyone wants to see a PDF of the Carbon Derivatives presentation I watched yesterday, you can find it here.
Had to root around to find not in the labor force numbers by month, go here (Table A13) check the "Total" box and then the "Retrieve Data" button:
Table A-13. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted
Reveals a increase of 289,000 labor force non-participants from October to November (non-seasonally adjusted), which is a 0.3% increase in the working age population outside the labor force...
.
Checking the in the labor force, we find that data here (Table A1):
here
we find the labor force shrunk by -96,000 (so that is about a third of the increase in population outside the labor force of 289,000 from above), which is a -0.06% decrease in the labor force
so it seems from the non-seasonally adjusted numbers that there may well have been a bit of an employment "ledge" in November - it seems to me that January will tell the tale for employment...
noob<
Thanks for the link.
Rob Dawg wrote:
rich been back yet Dawg?
noob goldberg wrote:
He dumped some GLD at the $1200 mark.
noob goldberg wrote:
Climategate! Climategate!
the REAL unemployment rate in U.S. fell to 17.2 percent in Nov from 17.5 percent in October ( and compared to 12.6 percent a year ago )
Party time for US stock market which apparently is the only metric that Obamanomics uses to for sentiment analysis
1250 is a fibo level on the inflation adjusted historical chart, so a correction here is expected. On the downside 950 is I believe a fibo level as well that should mark the bottom of this correction.
Executive Order 6102 is an Executive Order signed on April 5, 1933 by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion, and Gold Certificates" by U.S. citizens.
---But this will never happen again because we have a government that seeks to strengthen the U.S. Constitution and the Bill of Rights.
yagij wrote:
It's actually a good summary presentation of derivatives market issues in general, irrespective of the commodity in question. I'd recommend a glance through it.
EDIT: I recognized the snark, but I used the opportunity to put a plug in anyway
home
uh huh
Do you reckon as the last tree was chopped down on Easter Island, the natives were arguing over it's significance?
what's happening with swine flu?
i hear several nations have been completely wiped out. that's why there haven't been any recent reports or panic.
glod is a small professional market, so technical indicators still work. If we had blown thru 1300 without a correction, it would indicate the manic phase had begun.
IMO technicals mean nothing with Gold. It should be much MUCH higher at this point based on fundies but it's not because it (like the rest of the market) is highly manipulated.
but I do see the merit in watching the FIBO #'s as the participants know you are too.
Ciao
MS
thanks for the link noob
Read the Supreme Court on the Constitutional analysis.
Any US gold coins were minted by the US Government, which is by, of, and for the People, not the bankers.
The hoi ploy knows nothing, nothing.
YouTube - Man tries to sell $1100 one ounce gold coin for $50; no takers.
White House Pleased By Unemployment Dip - The Caucus Blog - NYTimes.com
tell these clowns it's really U6 not U3
There's a pretty good movie called Rapa Nui. I couldn't help thinking, hmmm, this seems so familiar.
JD, maybe we're twins by different mothers.
Gold is a technical market because the unwashed masses have not got in yet to the degree they have with the broader stock market.
Look at a chart of the fibo
levels on the historical inflation adjusted price chart. You could trade this markete mechamically off them.
Here's my question...
How much of this gold trade will bottleneck through oil.
A move up on strong volume could get interesting.
USD/JPY is soaring. Almost @90
Someone's taking a bath
We need MORE nitrous oxide to the engine! This Cessna WILL not STALL! yeah yeah, redline, overheating..blah blah...friggin p*ssies, no guts, no glory!
Quantitative easing will succeed. No question about it
And about the Youtube gold coin guy...
How many here are going to trust a gold salesman on the street?
km4
call them and tell them
white house
comments 202-456-1111 you may have to put a 1 in front of the number or not.
Try that stunt in India...
I might be willing to spend $5 for a nice fake though.
The Mortgage Pig wrote:
I think the
quit halfway through that post and accepted a new position.
more like quantitative greasing....of the politicians
Isn't that "Unemhoi poloi" Mr. Mortgage Pig™?
"Unemployment Misrepresented by Government Statistics"
There, finished it!
MaryAnn wrote:
....how so, MaryAnn?.........we have a CCA prison being built here now - all sorts of lying, under-table deals, and BS to get approved.