Employment Report: 11K Jobs Lost, 10% Unemployment Rate
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 5:44am (71 comments)
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NFP dropped just 11K - all forecasts be damned
Wow, that job summit surely was effective!
The increase in employment numbers was roughly offset by the increase of labor force dropouts
Optically, however, the unemployment rate is still double digit
Good news for Christmas.
Hmmm found this article over on Kos this morning. Apparently not too many are buying the "recovery" meme. It appears people are starting to really understand the depth of this "recession"...This won't end well.
Daily Kos: State of the Nation
What I found interesting was the comments under the article. Many are feeling terrified and are one step away from homeless themselves....scary.
"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from
-219,000 to -139,000, and the change for October was revised from -190,000 to
-111,000."
also,
Birth/Death model added 30k.
Fake Jobs
pretty strong number across the board- hours worked up, overtime up even hourly earnings were up albeit only 1c/hour.
Where are the unemployment numbers (percentage) gotten from that allow a jobs loss (any number from 11k-100k) yet the percentage gets better? Is our population or workforce shrinking?
No more excuses for the lazy hippies to sit around on the couch. Time to end the extended unemployment checks. Get back to work America!
/snark
How does the BLS determine whether someone drops out or is again actively looking for a job? Is it a total WAG or what?
Things must be looking up: Google's stopped placing the local bankruptcy attorneys' ad at the bottom of these pages.
Yup all is well
Daily Job Cuts - Layoff News , Job Layoffs 2009 , Bankruptcy, Store closings and other Business Economy News
apparatchica N-N,
One of neighbors I feel quite certain, would give mp a run for his money, in terms of machine-shop, etc. He's very skilled & industrious and his wife really knows how to garden, and grow fruit trees.
Those are all skills I knew nothing about, see how things mesh?
Sunnyside,
Workforce did shrink. Also, the headline number, -11k, is taken from the establishment survey, and the unemployment rate is taken from the household survey.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
One step away from non-payment.
They're only homeless if they're evicted.
tncubsfan wrote:
They ask people - it is a survey
Nigel Tufnel: The numbers all go to eleven thousand. Look, right across the board, eleven, eleven, eleven and...
With regards to birth/death adjustments:
Q: How long has CES been using the birth/death factors and is the history of birth/death available?
A: Implementation of the birth/death factors was associated with the implementation of a new probability-based sample design and estimator. The new methodology was phased in gradually under the following schedule: Beginning in June 2000 (with March 1999 Benchmark), Wholesale Trade on an SIC-basis was under the new methodology; in June 2001 (with the March 2000 Benchmark), Mining, Construction, and Manufacturing, on an SIC-basis, were added; in June 2002 (with the March 2001 Benchmark), all of Total Private with the exception of Services were under the new methodology; with the conversion to NAICS in June 2003 (with the March 2002 Benchmark), all of the Total Private industries were produced under the new methodology.
Historical Birth/Death factors are available at www.bls.gov/ces/cesbdhst.htm.
It seems like most of the data are from a minor recession and a major bubble. How well can they work now?
CES Birth/Death Model Frequently Asked Questions
CR,
a request. Please put the Birth/Death number in the posts on unemployment. Thanks.
W-T-F: B/D only adds back 30k, so the real number of job losses was ONLY 41k.
Again W-T-F
We've had foreclosure moratoria, but no eviction moratorium. I'm not noticing landlords giving extra slack for non-payment.
Yalt wrote:
Wait a few more months.
RATM wrote:
hey, dat's whad da man said he be bringing
If I didn't know y'all were hard core pessimists, I'd suspect from your comments that you were short.
FANTASY NUMBERS!..........."Warning: Any resemblance to realty is entirely coincidental and is not meant to be construed as meaning anything worth a fiddler's damn."
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Just go shopping. You'll feel better.
Good luck on the self-sufficiency thing. It took several hundred million people to design, build and set up the satellites and towers and cables and cheap laptop factories so that we could engage in this discussion. They are entitled to some of the fat of the land.
The construction worker who built the hospital and now can't afford treatment looks superfluous.
Yup, and I have skills not a lot of people have, as does my husband. It will work with those around us who have skills we don't. Protection from those who want what we have and they have will be the first order of business likely..and..we'll do pretty dang well (I hope) because ALL of us have those skills with the necessary equipment.
The one thing I am fearful of is organized anarchy like the Russian Revolution.
and BSR: when people broadly start to question numbers from 'authorities' then what?
No, it'll just get worse as landlords get more desperate for cash flow.
The only thing I can see happening is some sort of emergency aid to renters who can't make their rent.
broward wrote:
I see it here have one lager now and a couple empties. The heating and Christmas bills usually have an effect after new years, so this is setting up early here.
Sunnyside wrote:
Its the number of people who are actively looking for a job in the prior four weeks.
Also the unemployment rate is calculated from a different survey (house hold survey) that showed a gain of 226,000 jobs.
Wow!
went cliff-diving! Dollar stronger.
tncubsfan wrote:
It asks the respondent whether they have been looking for a job.
,rd shill wrote:
The baseball card bubble was really fascinating, in that it involved all ages. Usually financial bubbles are either kid oriented or adult oriented, but seldom both.
A friend had a baseball card store in the late 1980's, and i'd occasionally hang out and watch the bubble in progress. 8 year old boys would stream in, buy a sealed pack of this, that or whatever, rifle through it looking for that card that was worth $XXX in the Becket sportscard magazine. A mini-Wall*Street for the under 10 set.
Atypically, quite often the kids after opening a sealed pack would leave the 'commons' cards on the counter, as they were only interested in hitting the lottery.
Eric wrote:
get yourself something frilly, get in touch with your feminine side
hey, DI Ermey did.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
their lies will grow larger and sedulously more unbelievable
crazyv (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 12/4/2009 - 10:00 am tncubsfan wrote:
How does the BLS determine whether someone drops out or is again actively looking for a job? Is it a total WAG or what?
It asks the respondent whether they have been looking for a job.
volker the viking wrote:
And post pictures!
Yalt wrote:
1962
curious wrote:
I think we need to be fair to the labor department. They came up with a model based on the data they had. Overtime the model will pick up this downturn and in all probability it will in the future show a smaller B/D then is actually occurring. However, what is the BLS alternative. " our model was based on a minor recession and major bubble so since this time things are different we will just make up an adjustment". Once you go down that road they can pretty much make up whatever number they want.
It seems to me that they only thing they can do is lay out their model, make it clear how the numbers are development and then allow the users of the data to make whatever adjustment they want. I like you believe that in a credit induced recession there are no new small businesses being created or at least less than the past correlations and that there is a greater death of business. My gut feel is that far from adding jobs B/D should be subtracting jobs. However, I don't know that for sure and neither does the BLS and they won't until they get additional data like payroll taxes etc at some point in the future. That is part of their annual bench mark revision which they have already indicated will be in the region of 800,000.
Dollar catching a bid, moving up strongly. Gold selling off. Treasuries selling off (ylds up). Equity futures up.
Something not right.
Does anybody really believe these numbers? Blatent lying IMHO.
tncubsfan wrote:
surveys 60,000 people
BLS Handbook of Methods: Ch. 1: Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey
deanfv wrote:
.....yeah - even the retarded realize this is BS.
NGBROI wrote:
Only 11K?
Stuff is gettin' better.
NGBROI wrote:
Like that's new and different.
Oblame did it! that job summit really worked, it's like magic jobs created out of thin air.
Investors taking contradictory path with gold
| Reuters
How is that move in gold proportionally to the rest of the year? I don't follow it closely as I watch other stuff. Are people heading for the exit?
and digalert: you mean like the job creation from the 'stimulus'?
I just knew Obama would fix this mess. He did it through sheer force of will. He only waited this long to increase the dramatic tension. Get ready for the BIG VEEEE! Put on your
socks and get ready to ruuuumble!
I don't think they lie about the numbers. They are what they are - one months worth of data. I still see tough sledding ahead. It's a lot harder to rebuild balance sheets than it is to ruin them. I know from experience.
I'm sorry, I don't believe the number. Every other indicator points to continued heavy losses (ISM, ADP, weekly claims, etc). The administration has a jobs summit and viola, only 11K jobs lost. I've worked in government long enough to know BS when I see it.
,czar CR,
That 2nd graph is especially scary, when you consider that we essentially had no competition from communism in terms of making goods or offering services, from the 1948 downturn to the 1990 malaise.
It's a whole different kettle of fish, nowadays.
It seems to me that many are behaving in exactly the manner they decry. If a data point is presented that doesn't comport with their views it must be - Bull Shit, fantasy, made up , manipulated. The suggestion that there is some major conspiracy to massage these numbers is the fantasy. In a government that leaks like sieve keeping such a conspiracy quite really requires a stretch of imagination.
Obama speaks and out of thin air, Jobs are created........he truly is Glorious.
/snark/
Gold was dropping prior to the BLS numbers:
Gold tumbles 4% as dollar surges on jobs data - MarketWatch
It seems to me that many are behaving in exactly the manner they decry. If a data point is presented that doesn't comport with their views it must be - Bull Shit, fantasy, made up , manipulated. The suggestion that there is some major conspiracy to massage these numbers is the fantasy. In a government that leaks like sieve keeping such a conspiracy quite really requires a stretch of imagination.
I agree after all it's the government they would not lie...........
thanks for the links dum luk, answers some of my questions.
crazyv:
Every other survey is private sector or impossible to fudge. One survey is model based and generated by an entity with an agenda. Sorry, I call it like I see it. Hoover used to screw with stats during the depression. The military did it all the time in Vietnam.
nuke
dont worry it will be revised,as usual.just gov bs like you said.
Nuke wrote:
Let me point out the absurdity of this discussion. There are about 138,000,000 non farm jobs. 0.1% of that number is 138,000. Thus if the report is 99.9% accurate it could still be off by 138,000. So it is entirely possible that even with that margin of error that the real number is minus 276,000 . It is the foolishness that looks at this number as an absolute that is at fault.
crazyv,
Yeah, I appreciate that they have a difficult job. My complaint is the limited window that they use for the adjustment.
I don't have time to read their methods discussion, but you can find it here.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/05/art4full.pdf
The second component is an ARIMA time series model designed to estimate the residual net birth/death employment not accounted for by the imputation. The historical time series used to create and test the ARIMA model was derived from the UI universe micro level database, and reflects the actual residual net of births and deaths over the past five years.
Do the past five years correlate well with what is happening now? Probably not.
Interesting - Marketwatch changed that article from when I read it: here is what I intended to link:
Gold for December delivery fell to an intraday low of $1,200.60 an ounce in electronic trading on Globex.
It was down $13, or 1%, to $1,204.40 an ounce in European morning trade.
But the contract is still trading higher for the week, well above last Friday's closing level of $1,174.20.
Gold fell, "as profit-taking emerged," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, in a note to clients.
The metal is "testing support at $1,200, which has so far held strong," Moore said. "A positive reaction could see gold challenge the $1,250 level, but a negative reaction could see a quick correction given the scale of long exposure in the market."
I think the powers that be are attempting squelch the idea of the hoi ploy even giving a few seconds of thought, in terms of investing in the barbarous. Practically nobody owns any here in the U.S. of A., and like it or not, the relic still means a lot, as it represents the last honest money standing.
The 60 Minutes hit-piece practically screamed that if you buy gold, you are in cahoots with what's going on in the Congo, please spare me the tears...
curious wrote:
If done properly, an auto-regressive model should be able to correct for this.
curious wrote:
Curious- that is a valid complaint- but the model is what the model is and they need to report what their model shows. Its up to us as users of the data to make the adjustments to the model. I would have a greater problem if BLS kept changing the model.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
It's like watching paint dry. Rob Dawg and I have been saying it is due for a correction. Go ahead and sell. It'll help get some more into inventory. If it's paper--get out now.
If you're holding, well--I'm not letting go.
Quick back-of-the-envelope calculation says the raw number is +/- 75k, which would make the monthly change about +/- 100k. That's just the uncertainty due to the sample size and ignores any errors due to sampling methodology.
We're arguing about noise.
Angry Saver wrote:
Word.
Yalt wrote:
Yahoo News:-
Major indexes rise 1.5% on background noise.....Nightstands put on standby for deployment at 2%
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
paging Alice.....
this is just like the DJA today on the jobs report.....
no offense, NN, i read your posts, but words MEAN things
I can't say I'm really surprised by these numbers... http://raphaelkahan.blogspot.com/2009/11/unemployment-might-be-peaking-sooner.html
These numbers are complete bullshit.