So.. if unemployment won't peak until 2011, doesn't 10.2% seem a little low, or are we going to start playing silly games with the numbers. eg.
1. If you in a household with a working adult, you're not unemployed you're a DEPENDENT
2. If you're unemployed for more than 3 months, you're part of the core unemployed so shouldn't be included in the figures
3. If you're unemployed for less than a month you're 'transitory employed' so shouldn't be counted.
4. If you're under 21 then you're not unemployed, you're still your parents responsibility
We could go on an on until you get the rate down to only 5%.
All BB did was cop out and shift the blame of unsustainable govt. debt to the costs of SS & Medicare entitlements...and not having to address the central bank's role in banking instability, the Great Bubble, and chronic rising unemployment...
Here is a jobs idea: restore the balance of trade. You export to the USA $10 billion worth of widgets, we get to export to you $10 billion worth of gidgets. Of course that would mean we would have to stop importing $300 billion or so worth of crap from China while we export something closer to $40 billion.
Or we could just keep bleeding wealth to a totalitarian paranoid regime.
"What the administration doesn't have is men who don't say 'yes' to everything."
Well sort of. My understanding is that they say "yes" to everything they hear from Goldman Sachs, "yes" to 90% of what they hear from other bankers, "yes" to 80% of what they hear from Olympia Snowe and Joe Lieberman. To everyone else they say "Thank you very much for your participation. We'll be sure to get back to you if we have any questions."
Only when they are backed by the US economy would I count Tbills into the equation. As it stands the productive value of the US economy as a whole has been collapsing. Maybe I am missing a nefarious scheme or two, and in fact our economy is more vibrant then I give it credit.
Well.. one way to improve trade is to re-balance the playing field.
China lacks OSHA, 900% import tariff until their rules match ours
China lacks CARB, 800% import tariff until their rules match ours
China lacks mandatory maternity benefits 700% import tariff until their rules match ours
Keep loading on the tarifs to make up for the complete lack of ENFORCED regulation and suddenly domestic producers can compete. Part of the lower costs are the 19th century employment and environmental standards of our competitors.
I guess this makes me an evil protectionist.
~splat
Love that idea, we could create a new industry hand crafted, lovingly cared for debt instruments that show the artistry that only American debtors can create. Each Tbill passionately infused with the tears of debtors!
My god I think we have come up with a new industry that might save America. Don't run from debt! Turn it into designer investments! Maybe we could get some celebrities like Tiger Woods to throw his name on the stuff!
If you anger a narcissist, expect narcissistic anger in return...you will pay...dearly...better to walk on eggshells around N's...and pretend you like them...
Folks, I've seen this coming for a very long time. I've seen it in my profitability. Where were you then?
Business has got to share with labor. I've said it here many times. Jimmy Goldsmith said it in that 1994 interview.
This thing can work, but the entire regulatory mechanism requires overhaul and people need to wake up and stop believing in all of the sacred cows that have been sold to them.
Okay, I have to tell a true story from 1978. As a repair trainee I was paired with Dave, a 25-y-o white guy with an Afro driving a VW Bug. We visit a customer and as we're riding the elevator down, he takes out the emergency phone, cuts the line and puts it in his pocket. We walk to his car, get in and he tosses onto a huge pile of similar phones in his back seat.
I asked him, "What's going on? What are you doing?"
And he says without a thought, "That's my way of getting back at the world".
I was in denial until about 2002 or so. Since then I've engaged in one helluva self-education in economics, politics, psychology, etc. The truth is ugly, and the future is uglier. I've known we'll hit the wall for 5+ years now, but I have yet to figure out what's beyond that wall.
"This thing can work, but the entire regulatory mechanism requires overhaul and people need to wake up and stop believing in all of the sacred cows that have been sold to them."
Yep, like believing bought and paid for idiots, who's only life skill is winning rigged popularity contests every few years is going to "overhaul the regulatory apparatus" in a way that benefits other than those who paid for their legislative seat. That would be a very HUGE sacred cow for people to stop believing in. There are a whole host of others...
splat, the 10.2% may very well be the peak for U3 (which counts people recieving benefits). Count the people whose benefits expired and/or can only find a part-time job (U6 unemployment) and the number is 17.5% and rising.
The real question is when will U6 peak. And that is NOT the question CR or Goldman Sachs is answering.
Count the people whose benefits expired and/or can only find a part-time job (U6 unemployment) and the number is 17.5% and rising.
Indeed, I know friend and family who's spouses aren't working but can get by for now on one income. I would class these folks as the under-employed and the number to continue to rise. Some have returned to education which also helps 'hide' the real statistics. But what we're facing is large scale unemployment where there simply are not the jobs available. The new economic reality the jobless economy.
~splat
well... i still have a copy of 'the tao of physics' ... to be honest i am not sure i ever read more than a few pages of it and not sure why i have it... but that's the story with half my library........... some day (maybe)
Ah, the tales of Goodgulf, Frito, Spam, Moxie and Pepsi...I got a weeks detention for falling out of my chair laughing reading that in Algebra class...memories.
I think the snark is a form of gallows humor. Kinda like the 8th of the 7 stages of acceptance. I have noticed an increase in snark among people I interact with lately. 6 months ago it was anger. Now, it's something darker, more cyncial.
Or threatening to write one to his next opponent and pledging to raise money for whoever that might be.
I did a lot of that in the last six months, some of it very direct and personal. Not clear if it did any good but I am getting fewer fundraising calls.
Trade protectionism is bad. But unbalanced trade is worse.
What do you think would happen if a genie showed up one day and promised to give your country anything it wanted for free on an ongoing basis? Does the picture you imagine look familiar? And what would happen if one day many years later the genie changed its mind? We're going to find out.
strange, just watched a crappy hand held shot trailer of Iron Man 2...
guess they had a better copy out there on YouTube but Paramount pulled
it for copyright. on a trailer shown in theatres? why the hell would you do
that? I'd love to have a chat with the guy in distribution about that choice...
...
from what I saw the Robert Downey 'Tony Stark'is acting more like Pacino in
Scarface, esp, in the US Congress scene...
....
oh yeah... UE, gimme a moment
It's a MAD thing. You have to start early in the cycle and threaten a lot. If you get to the point where you are actually giving your money to the opponent at the end of the cycle then you have basically lost.
Still not clear if it works, at least not at the low four figure contribution level where I am.
Still not clear if it works, at least not at the low four figure contribution level where I am.
It doesn't. Obama had to raise $1 billion for his campaign, as did his opponent McCain. That figure doubles every election cycle, so in 2012 each candidate will need a $2 billion war chest.
To raise $2 billion over 4 years, Obama and his Republican opponent each need to raise $1.2 million per day EVERY DAY (weekends and holidays included). Who has that kinda scratch in one place concentrated? Hint: It's not the middle class.
I don't have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It's a depression. Everybody's out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel's worth; banks are going bust; shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter; punks are running wild in the street, and there's nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there's no end to it.
We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat. And we sit watching our TVs while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that's the way it's supposed to be!
We all know things are bad -- worse than bad -- they're crazy.
It's like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don't go out any more. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we're living in is getting smaller, and all we say is, "Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials, and I won't say anything. Just leave us alone."
Well, I'm not going to leave you alone.
I want you to get mad!
I don't want you to protest. I don't want you to riot. I don't want you to write to your Congressman, because I wouldn't know what to tell you to write. I don't know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street.
All I know is that first, you've got to get mad.
You've gotta say, "I'm a human being, goddammit! My life has value!"
So, I want you to get up now. I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window, open it, and stick your head out and yell,
I'm pretty sure most folks here aren't in denial. I know people in denial, and they don't watch Fed Chair confirmation hearings.
Some people know what's going on, and they're pissed. The Left vs Right arguments tend to take a back seat when you start talking economy - that's one nice thing about all this.
I called over 15 senators yesterday to register my tally as 'no'. Even better than facetime with the rep, get some facetime with the staffer for the finance/banking/business aspects. That's where inroads get made.
If we ever get true campaign finance reform (100% public funding with bans on soft money), things may change. When that day comes, I will believe that a difference can be made.
I will end with George Carlin, who sums up my feelings. I am this jaded and only in my early 30s. Scary, huh?
For $1,000, you can buy facetime with any Congressman in that august body.
Not just face time - for somewhere between $1K and $2K most of the ones in competitive districts will personally call you and ask you how it's going, starting about a year ahead of the next election.
But they don't particularly like it when you say something negative, and it's not clear whether the things I have to say are sufficiently similar to the things they are hearing from other people.
When a nation has no jobs...or fewer jobs every month...it's all over but the shouting...long process involved in destroying a nation...it's been done before over and over with pretty much the same formula being implemented now as has worked or been an accident in the past...
EHP
Network was written by the great Paddy Chayefsky. he was such a perfectionist that he didn't allow one word to be changed in his scripts. I'm sure even Syd Lumet had to abide by that rule, yes, he had that kind of leverage. Plus, any actor who dared to go off book (improv) well, they'd soon be sent to the Paddy Gulag.
If we ever get true campaign finance reform (100% public funding with bans on soft money), things may change. When that day comes, I will believe that a difference can be made.
That day will never come unless YOU do something about it.
YOU and thousands of other YOUs.
Right now, there are millions of pissed off people in this country, who are only now beginning to realize that they've been sold a bill of goods.
"Particularly competitive" describes about 10% of the House of Reps races.
It's a little more than 10%, but it doesn't have to be your home district. $1,000 to the next district over gets you basically the same treatment. And it's the competitive districts that get all the attention from the party leadership because that's where majorities come from, so once you've got that person's attention you have a chance of getting somewhere.
merchants of fear
I hope you are talking about the original Cape Fear and not Scorsese's crappy remake...
that ending was way too over the top.
here's a vid I shot of Nora Ephron talking about Paddy Chayefsky and her use of Improv in movie making : YouTube - Nora Ephron: Importance of Being Funny and Directing Comedy on Film
And it's the competitive districts that get all the attention from the party leadership because that's where majorities come from, so once you've got that person's attention you have a chance of getting somewhere.
Now, WE are getting somewhere.
That's a damned good idea and a hell of a lot better than snarking and whining.
Why doesn't someone here do a Conjure-style thinkpiece on that and figure out who we need to cough help?
Aww, I have to pay and don't get a vote? Can I bring the shitstorm somewhere else instead?
Will have to consider carefully the opp cost, compared with other select investments, like... SHIPS! There are clearly not enough ships being built, on the water, and those millions of containers are stacking up ready to go everywhere but no sealift.
Hey, jobs is easy.
You get people to sell stuff, to other people.
Then they get sales commissions, nice slice off the middle with a cut to the nice man who recruited you, and a percentage for the of course.
Then all you have to do is keep the churn high!
Churn, churn, churn.
Increases the "V" - you're done, and the bonuses keep coming.
Sorry, mp, this locomotive is headed full-speed for the end of the line and the elected representatives up in the cab CAN'T stop it. Not for love or money.
Once upon a time I studied the French Revolution. What struck me profoundly about it was that an awful lot of intelligent, politically-active people saw it coming. They saw it just as clearly as the commentariat here sees what's coming in the US.
And they were actually more successful in their efforts to avoid the outcome than we are (or can be) today.
Yeah, well, it may interest you to know that China's state--REPEAT, STATE--construction company has received almost $2 billion in US infrastructure contracts.
So, that means the CHINESE GOVERNMENT is now building infrastructure in the US.
I think people on this site know exactly what they need to do to get their Congressman's attention. But they rather come to the site to snark and pontificate, rather than taking an afternoon off to talk to their Congressman for a simple reason.
It is not personal.
It is not personal because whatever the government is doing, it is not coming out of their pocket this instance and it is shared by 300 million other people.
People have no problem getting on the phone and call their bank the minute they received a letter telling them that their interest rates are going up, because it is personal.
But when the government gives $700billion to the banks, it is not personal because the government is not telling anyone to pony up $200,000 to the bank. It is coming out of some treasury in the sky and will be paid for in the future by the taxpayers.
Some people, like you, can see how the situation will become personal and will do something about it right away. For most, it is easier to procrastinate and to wait for it to become personal. But once it does become personal for most people, it is usually too late.
For most, it is easier to procrastinate and to wait for it to become personal. But once it does become personal for most people, it is usually too late.
Well, yChigo, you're probably right.
But, everyone here needs to realize that it's going to get REALLY PERSONAL and REALLY SOON.
"The Chinese government wants locally made components to account for 80 percent of Chinese-made vessels by 2015, as part of a wider drive to surpass South Korea as the world’s biggest shipbuilding nation."
From that article Counterpointer linked...same strategy that Japan and S Korea used previously to gain dominance. The question is, how much in campaign funds for incumbents is coming from Chinese sources?
Well, Korea got the industry away from Japan, only now to be overtaken by China. The average South Korean has a much higher standard of living today than 20 years ago. Now ROK has gained a good chunk of integrated circuits and consumer electronics and cars, and they have one of the most advanced internet/telcom infrastructure in the world.
Forces in history can build to a point of momentum where they can't be stopped. You want to know how to stop what's happening? Go back to 1980 and re-elect Carter, or better still to 1968 and nominate Gene McCarthy instead of Humphrey.
Do you think the Industrial Revolution could have been stopped circa 1775? How about the rise of the scientific method? The Catholic Church did its best in the latter case and it had more power than any single nation has ever had.
What we here need to do is survive what's coming. Survive the collapse, then survive the coming fascism that tries to hold the collapsing pieces together, and the second collapse that follows it, and then start re-building with a new national ethos.
And that ethos had better have a deep rational foundation, deeper even than the foundation that supported this republic of ours. Because obviously even the Constitution, which to me is one of the greatest written works of all time, could not stand in the way of human greed and deceit.
Times by Max Hastings:
IT is hard to be optimistic about the outcome of President Obama’s troop “surge” in Afghanistan. The additional forces sound large in headlines, but shrink small in the mountains. The commitment is intended as an earnest indication of America’s will. But neither the number of troops nor the timeline that mandates a drawdown in less than two years is likely to impress the Taliban, who think in decades, or for that matter the Afghan people.
Most decision-makers on both sides of the Atlantic now privately believe we are in the business of managing failure, and that is how the surge looks. The president allowed himself to be convinced that a refusal to reinforce NATO’s mission in Afghanistan would fatally weaken the resolve of Pakistan in resisting Islamic militancy. Meanwhile at home, refusal to meet the American generals’ demands threatened to brand him as the man who lost the Afghan war.
<<<<<<< Obama said the Taliban unlike the Viet Cong are not a broad based popular insurgency in his speech. True. But who would you rather have in power Karzai or Diem?
I think people on this site know exactly what they need to do to get their Congressman's attention. But they rather come to the site to snark and pontificate, rather than taking an afternoon off to talk to their Congressman for a simple reason.
Meh, I lost all hope after the TARP vote. And I spent $$$ on that.
About the rational basis for a new ethos: it needs to emerge out of the understanding of the relationship between Somethingness and Nothingness. You can't get any deeper than that. If you can ground your ethos, your principles, your political and economic theory, that deeply, they become irrefutable.
Metaphysics and science and everything else merge into a single discipline that has been called Unireality. Which explains my handle.
unirealist:
I beg to differ. Gene McCarthy would have lost to Nixon. The only thing that made the Nixon/Humphrey battle close was the 3rd party challenge by THAT southern governor. Had Perot not stepped in in '92 Bush would have been re-elected.
I wouldn't call it so much as fascism as I would a neo-feudalism.
Very likely true. The nascent revolution got crushed by a backlash counter-revolution, (just as my university sociology professor predicted!), hence Nixon and Reagan.
Still, it's nice to dream that we could have elected a statesman at the time. IMO, that was the turning point for the republic.
not sure I agree with unirealist notion that an awful lot of intelligent, politically-active people saw it coming",
really? do you think in Madame de Stael's salons this was train roaring down the tracks was dominating the conversation. Not only did she know about every important intellectual in Europe but her father was also Necker. ..read Jacques Barzun on the subject for starters...
mp wrote: I'm sorry, but I fail to understand the fatalistic attitude of many here. [...] If half of you here started blogs addressing these issues, and started linking with one another, you really could raise hell. [...] I just don't understand it.
What are you really asking them to do? I've been reading CR's comments section for a little over a year and a half and I haven't seen you articulate any clear-cut actionable set of principles or guidelines of any sort. The "I'm reporting on what Conjure Bag says..." shtick doesn't qualify BTW.
A very small, select number of bloggers have made it into the big time in term of eyeballs. The rest are utterly unread, save by close friends. Links are of limited use in this matter - they don't generate anywhere near the crossover audience you think they do.
If you're arguing for people to pool their money and buy the politics they want then, yeah you have a point. The internet and blogging link networks might be very helpful in supporting such an effort..... but it won't come from a group of guys who share their wet dreams about contrarian funds all night long. If you want to excite people to take political action, go to the political blogs.
With all due respect, it's not hard to understand: no one wants to get fired for not being a real Merican. You're probably established enough in your IRL community that people make allowances.
Things are going to have to get worse before they can get better.
mp wrote:
I'm sorry, but I fail to understand the fatalistic attitude of many here.
You folks have got access to the greatest goddamned bully pulpit ever invented, the internet.
If half of you here started blogs addressing these issues, and started linking with one another, you really could raise hell.
they don't generate anywhere near the crossover audience you think they do.
The "revolutionary" Internet is concentrated back into Establishment hands now.
And that's how most people want it.
You're watching a slow-motion replay of a diluted Germany circa 1932.
If you're not part of the Plan, you get destroyed economically.
The network of conspiracies and slander in place is far greater than you realize.
I see now why Citi didn't make the list of TBTF banks. They're not one. No more than the Agencies. As a GSE, they should go into the GSE fail bucket by volume and tenor.
Just leaving Tokyo this evening after an absolutely beautiful day. The highways were pristine, the topiary was manicured along the highway to within an inch of its life, and the underemployment was absolutely devistating in its scope.
I worry this is what we have to look forward to, with more potholes and less foliage.
Nah. Just butchered the delivery. I was refering to the "manicuredness" rather than the quantity. I literally saw six guys doing landscaping in one of the parks today. Five were intently monitoring the situation, one had a weed whacker. scary.
Guess everyone has heard Sen Bunning goring Bernanke in the hearing today? ZH and clusterstock are carrying it. Nice closer at about 10min - "your Fed has become the creature from Jekyll Island".
And this supports one of the points earlier, some of the best access points are the fin/banking advisors, liaison staff and speechwriters for the reps in question. Even if not everyone in the room had read Griffin, and only heard the allusion to a dimly-remembered horror movie, it still got a variety of laughs (recognition, nerves, trepidation, for audacity etc) and was memorable in itself.
Yerp futes are home to today. The opens are looking jaggy.
C
/doh, and an hour later he sees the hundreds of comments on this very hearing on CR. Hit F5 on diligence next time...
She's got three kids out of work but still can't see that the problem is lack of work
broward,
There really isn't enough work to go around. We already produce plenty. It's a matter of distribution.
How much oil do we needlessly burn in order to support unnecessary jobs that are not only useless but counterproductive? People need to re-discover free time. A used paper back on the couch or a walk in the park are worth more than a trip to the mall.
When they educated financial engineers to run the economy's locomotive?
This is why I cannot get on the Warren for Treasury bandwagon - she is and always has been an academic tucked away at places like Harvard Law. Not in favor or alumni of getting the job, but not her either.
A very small, select number of bloggers have made it into the big time in term of eyeballs. The rest are utterly unread, save by close friends. Links are of limited use in this matter - they don't generate anywhere near the crossover audience you think they do.
Great post! You are a bit harsh, BTW. I know what you mean though about those who create blogs and then drop self serving links back and eventually these avatars drop off, fade away, whatever. And you might be wrong about why nothing or not much is parlayed.
A blog, for success, must have content, characters, and coolness, slathered liberally with tolerance--a gentle hand upon the tiller as it were. Here you and I find all.
I don't blog. I sell advertising. Been to a lotta, lotta blogs. No content beyond 'let me tell you why my cat is special', or 'I am midst this grand undecipherable crisis', or whatever. Fuck me, it's life. No more and no less than each of us must endure.
Besides, it's far more simple to just bitch out loud instead of doing all the heavy lifting of research beyond wiki.
There's finite bandwidth and it's largely spoken for.
Very hard to dislodge existing patterns and then for what?
Most people, even now, don't want bad news, much less a prophet of suffering and pain.
Most people, even now, don't want bad news, much less a prophet of suffering and pain.
this whole e-commerce marketing assumption rings bogus to me, I never bought in, except as it exists as opportunity to generate business locally from local participants plus the occasional lightning strike from an outsider passing through
Are we losing audience here? Is this what the chatter is about?
Would be interesting to notebook how participation tracks with economy, is there an inverse relationship, etc
Most folk glaze over when you speak truth to them. They are on auto. Some will shake out of their depression and stumble over this or many other sites. Then later they nod off again.
this whole e-commerce marketing assumption rings bogus to me
Some of the numbers are real.
I've done projects that had high, provable ROI but usually at the expense of existing labor (and sometimes competitors).
A lot of of it is empire-building within large companies now, though.
It's often hard to quantify except as a measure of internal satisfaction.
Or, they will go some political blog and wade in the cesspool to argue their points of self-interest to prop up a pov on hot button issues which increasingly is becoming irrelevant.
I'd love to see some hard statistics on internet traffic, MSM news and information sources on the internet versus blogs.
It cost time and money to participate on the internet. What I think may happen is more people connecting dots after their emotions are drained from becoming unemployed. What will they choose to keep, cable, internet, phone as their finances deteriorate??
The one which serves multi-functional purposes may not win in value-added category. We'll see. I've been around for freaking ever since the days of the BBS and Prodigy. I'm alarmed and increasingly concerned that billionaires are going to limit information flows based on ability to pay. I'm old school, the internet and its functions were free as it serves the purpose of freedoms of thought, news serving a public utility that isn't a concern of corporate controls or interest.
Here, I find intriguing analysis, thought experiments, etc. Here I seek answers to the conundrum we all are either facing now or will face in the not too distant future.
I am a realist however, I don't have the funds or intellectual capital to sell my pov to a politician or popular blog creation. I know I'm a nobody with no power. I think that conclusion that we are all powerless in this Brave New World is increasingly being realized by people who believed the government was acting in their interest, is selected by voters and will listen to their constituents. The people of the USA don't know their place in the world....yet.
I think I have an idea for how to take blogging to the next level.
Are you being funny?
The real crash was 2001.
What's followed was the Feds attempt to prevent reversal of the long-term interest rate cycle.
Offshore labor dropped costs, which increased demand but at the price of faster market saturation.
Nobody wants to talk about that.
Many companies are gate-keepering by charlatans with a motive of self-preservation, and they filter out objective viewpoints and ideological threats. Libertarians and technology geeks both have heavy ego-investment in ideology. They can not be objective.
All held together by trashing social fabric and the monetary system.
There's a lack of ethical integrity in many areas now.
Most folk glaze over when you speak truth to them.
....That's the look some even get during 2-hours of church once a week.
The Newest Norm: "Our Blueprint For A Greener Future"...........Offset for 45,000 miles...........$8 UgaStoves........Uses 2/3rds the charcoal of a open pit fire...............Yep........this Cap & Trade sure will help the economy & environment.....no game-playing here!
There's a lack of ethical integrity in many areas now.
I suggest that unfortunately, we have not avoided debt-deflation, this is the fight now to hide this reality. Indeed, for the large broker/dealer/bankers that is exactly what is happening through complex means of a secretive federal reserve and treasury and not just in the USA. Its also happening on Main street. People are 'squatting' in homes without paying mortgages, taxes or insurance while banks are loathed to foreclose as this would further deteriorate their balance sheets. I think what we have is classic deflation in CRE, RRE and in other segments of the economy (worldwide). There is stagflation in energy, food, health care, and consumer non-discretionary save housing which is in deflation including for renters.
Its clear if one looks at history that neither economic paradigm is correct and why new thought is required. What is different now as opposed to the 18th, 19th, and even the 20th century are the sheer numbers of people and historic global inter-dependencies not only in finance but of basic resources. Few today in this world can live independently, farming is industrialized so even though there might have been economic Armageddon in the past centuries, individuals were able for the most part to subsist, communities were solid and supportive, basic living could be supported. There was suffering but not on the scale we will see today. Now teeming cities of people who are disconnected by generations of how to survive elsewhere or with few resources, exist worldwide. Political chaos and civil unrest will the the result of further stress. This part isn't rocket science, history is replete with examples. We forget we are animals and connected to nature. It is predictable what happens when animals become too stressed, even animals that are not normally violent towards each other, become that way.
Politically and in models of economies and business, a top-heavy system exists that feeds off more and more underneath economically and socially. It is out of balance and increasingly so. This is eroding foundations which eventually will mean structural failure socially, economically and politically.
Self-sustaining homeostasis is a cornerstone of understanding in systems of nature, human physiology and those vastly more complex systems. Homeostasis means healthy systems which work in synergies. Homeostasis means mechanisms work in concert for sustained equilibriums that support life and its systems. What we have now is an invasive virus which is destructive. I really believe part of the problem is in core beliefs of what progress/innovation is. Ever increasing returns, ever increasing inflation, more complex market systems which hold no value and do not discover value. Systems which are self-rewarding but produce nothing in real productivity for those whose very life force is drained in the process. The protective functions of markets are stripped away in this economic paradigm.
We have AIDS in economics and like AIDS opportunistic infections that infect whole systems occur with ease as the gatekeepers fall away. Eventually, it is those infections which kill the host when homeostasis becomes impossible from major organ/system failures, homeostasis can't be maintained. This infection in economics extends into once shielded areas which existed for real progress and public good. Science, Medicine, Energy, Journalism, Education; nothing has been spared and why this isn't progress, it is destruction of our most valuable resources in human intellect and in human motivations/rewards which are productive rather than destructive. That progress isn't measured in dollars, market equities or gold. We are currently in a modern day Dark Age.
,rad mp implored us to get involved in the matters political earlier in this thread, but i'd say do just the opposite, as in get them out of your lives as much as is humanly possible.
Sooner than later, the public will turn up the heat on our elected officials, who have no answers to what's going on, and they'll mostly be gone.
The time to get involved is after the smoke clears, and the old guard is no more...
the problem is in core beliefs of what progress/innovation is. Ever increasing returns, ever increasing inflation, more complex market systems which hold no value and do not discover value.
Agree with this.
Increasing complexity == increasing risk but shrinking value.
Eventually hits a break-point, which I think was the global trade collapse of last year.
Almost none of the participants understand the risk.
History and impetus says the Feds will print until the cost gets higher than the return.
They will avoid a major failure via printing as long as possible.
....don't mind me volker..........I woke up on the wrong side of the cat-box......
Nanooo..........good definition. Many get the problem, AND, many also are rectifying it in their own way. I and my family dropped out. We are as close to self-sufficiency as possible. JD is the same only with a BIG budget. My family decided that to "fix" the problems was not possible. The corruption is widespread. Let it break and then rebuild - it will be easier. By then the looter-rats will be dead or have disappeared, and the economy will be at a standstill. Perfectly acceptable next step for us.
I'm entitled to my opines too, your opinion is welcome but I will let it stand. It may well be nothing but garbage but I'll own it and eat it and you can discard it and others can do the same.
The corruption is widespread. Let it break and then rebuild - it will be easier. By then the looter-rats will be dead or have disappeared, and the economy will be at a standstill. Perfectly acceptable next step for us.
The corruption looks very similar to what you find in developing countries. Here the lobbying is basically legalized corruption. It might take another 30-50 years for the economy to get to the point where people might be ready for a change. Can we wait that long?
The time to get involved is after the smoke clears, and the old guard is no more...
What if takes 2 generations for the smoke to clear?
I don't have anything better to offer though.... other than to stay starve the system of its fuel by being anti-consumptive.
Truth be said, it's been a lot of fun and quite the learning experience attempting to make oneself self-sufficient, in times of grave uncertainty such as the situation now before us.
I've learned a lot about myself and my surroundings...
do we have a choice? It's easier to use the system to "wear the bastards down"..........starve them outta their holes.........get out of debt, don't become subject to withholding, use cash only, and get lean and mean - like volker.
U3 is dependent upon available debt issuance to fund the unemployment benefits, while U6 is dependent upon statistical collection methods. I am watching for when tax receipts bottom and U6 peaks. I wish we could find median individual tax receipts, but state and federal releases of tax receipt data don't show that.
If we are truly undergoing a structural shift as I suspect rather than just another cyclical phase, then I don't think you are going to see U6 peak until well into the next presidential term, say 2015. Even then, I would expect to see definitional changes take place (like Japan's increasing shift to part-time casual workers away from their traditional industrial model of lifetime employees, yet still declaring all is well with employment) before actual recovery in household balance sheets.
Don't watch the employment numbers, I say; watch the purchasing power parity of median households. A lot of frenetic activity (employment) can mask declining real wealth.
Wang Xiaoyi, deputy head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said China maintained a consistent allocation of its foreign exchange reserves across different currencies, Reuters reported Dec. 4. Wang stated that the weakening of the U.S. dollar will be a long-term trend but China doesn’t see big fluctuations in the near term. He added that China is not making any big adjustment in its management of foreign exchange reserves, and all operations are in line with existing “forex” management goals."
Me too, but for those still stuck in debt, in large cities, like in the last great depression, they will suffer most. Its a huge challenge to become self-sufficient, in fact, I'm not sure without a large family one can actually subsist entirely independently now. It is subsistence living. No man is an island as the trite saying goes. That still doesn't mean ignoring the things one can do. First on that order is removal of debt, ownership of as much as possible and then preparing for what will be challenges. It scare the hell out of me, I know that the world operates on credit literally. If that freezes, then the fallout will be profound.
What chance was there for a Good German in 1944, to change things around 180 degrees in terms of leadership, after 11 years of things only continually getting worse?
The only act that gets a Congressman's attention involves writing them a large check.
Not the only act. The other acts are imminent (in seconds) threats of bodily harm (rather illegal), and any act that involves permanently decoupling wealth-generating activities from the tax collection and/or your commented-upon pay-to-play process. The latter is still surprisingly accessible to the majority of the population.
The key that opens your mind to the possibilities of self-sufficiency, is getting out of our big cities, which are almost the antithesis of being self-sufficient, sadly.
Badger, if people would create enough of a shitstorm, up-and-coming politicians would tap into it.
You can start by calling your Congressman and telling him you're going to vote with your money.
I'd go further. Attend committee meetings and legislative debates. Watch and learn how the mechanisms of government work. Combine that with the economic knowledge that's gained here and elsewhere. And then find a non-profit lobbying group you can use as a personal vehicle to get into that sphere and participate. It's really not that hard to get hear once you have a vehicle; an intelligent and informed voice is rarer than you'd think.
At the very least, society could really use a group of bullshit detectors who know enough about what's going on to see through the charade and let their family, friends, and circle of influence to become a trusted voice. Then it simply becomes a matter of having people listen to that voice.
And if a network of trusted voices could band together...why, we'd almost call that a political movement.
I doing it through a Neighborhood Watch, you can get grant money for it and everything.
even rural places? Its interesting, up here people mostly keep to themselves but you should see the stockpiles of wood for those outside furnaces that run the whole house.
My husband and I are old 'security freaks'. It took extreme discipline to not buy into the kool-aid of the McMansion with all the trimmings so we could be debt free...and it took a long time of exercising that discipline, good fortune and timing. I almost lost it during the dotcom bubble. Now we are attempting to be as self-sufficient as possible like many people are, here and throughout rural places up here.
the heavy lifting comes with 'get to know your neighbors'
This is the key to self-sufficiency. Nobody is really an island unto themselves, and if you are lucky and happen to have great neighbors, you've almost won the battle right there.
We have an excellent dynamic here, as our neighbors are all very good @ a myriad of abilities, which tend to not overlap.
Before buying a doomstead, do a little research on your prospective neighbors. I don't mean it in a Mrs. Kravitz way, but check them out on the internet, it's so easy to do.
Lots of good comments overnight.
Why can't we both take action now (as ineffectual as it might be) AND rebuild after the collapse?
Clearly the Elephants and Asses care about nothing other than getting elected.
Calls against/for TARP were supposedly running 90 - 10 but it passed anyway.
That should tell you something.
The Reds and the Blues are out to F#ck you and the faster you accept that; the better off you'll be, IMO.
Wall St. produces nothing of value so all those mega bonuses are just squids sucking the life blood out of our economy.
They are looters and pirates and have done more harm to America than anyone.
The foundations of our economy are build upon edifices of sand and the late great prophet Jimi Hendrix told us that Castles made of sand crumble into the sea eventually.
The collapse has already occured; there is no stopping it. The best one can hope to do is survive the coming chaos and attendant fascism as TPTB attempt to maintain their post WW II, oil dominate culture. And you know what? Their day is over; it is our time.
So no matter how low you are; grab those bootstraps and give those F#ckers HELL!
Very true. One has to be careful about those relationships though in my experience and how close/involved they are in your personal business. This is where I fall down as privacy is high on my list in quality of life. I have nothing to hide, its just a neuroses.
Why can't we both take action now (as ineffectual as it might be) AND rebuild after the collapse?
We have a major decision to make regarding our country's infrastructure. It's ancient and decaying rapidly. Our roads are a mess, but do we rebuild them only thinking of an old delivery system, whose days might be numbered?
One of neighbors I feel quite certain, would give mp a run for his money, in terms of machine-shop, etc. He's very skilled & industrious and his wife really knows how to garden, and grow fruit trees.
Those are all skills I knew nothing about, see how things mesh?
nanoo
internet! and phone cause its dsl.only got cable cause it gave me 10 dollar discount of cable internet. got rid of cable internet told sil if he wanted cable then put it his name. he did.but the internet to me is a need ill even go on with dial-up.
agree about americans not knowing their place in the world, ooh and its going to hurt when they find out.it will be interesting to see which country comes out on top and becomes the new king of the world. imo
Yeah but employment is a lagging indicator.
Nemo wrote:
Like rigor mortis.
Nemo wrote:
So the market tanking in the last 30min of trading... is leading the jobs report?
Hey everybody, did you hear the news? Barack Obama is open to any and all good ideas about how to save jobs.
Not exactly a confidence builder. Kind of sounds like the adminstration doesn't currently have any ideas.
albrt wrote:
I'm still pissed he said something to the effect of "Universities have to do a better job of training the workforce".
EDIT: Baby crying,
patientrenter wrote:
In fact, even if his policies eventually create higher inflation, he will consider himself to have been successful.
You live under the illusion that somehow this is somehow all pretty benign. I hope you're preparing for worse than you expect.
albrt wrote:
Tariffs, 32-hour workweek.
Plenty of ideas, plenty of empirical evidence and analysis.
What the administration doesn't have is men who don't say "yes" to everything.
The Untold Story - Emergency Unemployment Compensation Claims Surge By 265k In One Week | zero hedge
Gah... I was just about the say that
So.. if unemployment won't peak until 2011, doesn't 10.2% seem a little low, or are we going to start playing silly games with the numbers. eg.
1. If you in a household with a working adult, you're not unemployed you're a DEPENDENT
2. If you're unemployed for more than 3 months, you're part of the core unemployed so shouldn't be included in the figures
3. If you're unemployed for less than a month you're 'transitory employed' so shouldn't be counted.
4. If you're under 21 then you're not unemployed, you're still your parents responsibility
We could go on an on until you get the rate down to only 5%.
~splat
All BB did was cop out and shift the blame of unsustainable govt. debt to the costs of SS & Medicare entitlements...and not having to address the central bank's role in banking instability, the Great Bubble, and chronic rising unemployment...
broward wrote:
Particularly at the top... Plenty of yes for the
Here is a jobs idea: restore the balance of trade. You export to the USA $10 billion worth of widgets, we get to export to you $10 billion worth of gidgets. Of course that would mean we would have to stop importing $300 billion or so worth of crap from China while we export something closer to $40 billion.
Or we could just keep bleeding wealth to a totalitarian paranoid regime.
When did universities get into the "training" business?
All hail the
Trainwreck wrote:
There are some of us here old enough to remember when communism was bad, before they started making cheap shit for Walmart.
~splat
"What the administration doesn't have is men who don't say 'yes' to everything."
Well sort of. My understanding is that they say "yes" to everything they hear from Goldman Sachs, "yes" to 90% of what they hear from other bankers, "yes" to 80% of what they hear from Olympia Snowe and Joe Lieberman. To everyone else they say "Thank you very much for your participation. We'll be sure to get back to you if we have any questions."
All I'm coming up with is employing people to make stuff,...and that doesn't pay squat.
Trainwreck wrote:
Do T-Bills count?
That vaguely reminds me of the Alien facesucker.... Lets hope nothing explodes out of Uncle Sam's stomach when we get together for Christmas dinner!
N tendencies...narcissism can be abusive, grandiose, guiltless, shameless...
Blackhalo wrote:
Great idea.
We need to stop mass-printing and digital transfers.
Each bond & bill should be hand-crafted in America by a skilled artisan.
A disorder that is untreatable...
Only when they are backed by the US economy would I count Tbills into the equation. As it stands the productive value of the US economy as a whole has been collapsing. Maybe I am missing a nefarious scheme or two, and in fact our economy is more vibrant then I give it credit.
mp wrote:
When they educated financial engineers to run the economy's locomotive?
It can do, if it's done correctly.
Well.. one way to improve trade is to re-balance the playing field.
China lacks OSHA, 900% import tariff until their rules match ours
China lacks CARB, 800% import tariff until their rules match ours
China lacks mandatory maternity benefits 700% import tariff until their rules match ours
Keep loading on the tarifs to make up for the complete lack of ENFORCED regulation and suddenly domestic producers can compete. Part of the lower costs are the 19th century employment and environmental standards of our competitors.
I guess this makes me an evil protectionist.
~splat
There's a big difference between education and training.
Just saying.
Love that idea, we could create a new industry hand crafted, lovingly cared for debt instruments that show the artistry that only American debtors can create. Each Tbill passionately infused with the tears of debtors!
the longest losing streak since the 1930s
The pool of have-nots is growing.
Trainwreck wrote:
and it would (for awhile) support $$$ value because each one would be unique and imbued with hand labor!
Trainwreck wrote:
Hey, how about a hand-crafted MBS? Think of all the work each one of those would require.
Well if China was Al Capone you would be Elliot Ness with those restrictions. Ok, maybe just the cop that Sean Connery played in the Untouchables.
I'll go on the record right now for 185k jobs lost. Just sayin
something's brewing; China is taking back its panda from the National Zoo...
oh thanks.. it didn't end too well for him
~splat
You folks are going to snark yourselves right into inaction, which is exactly what TPTB want you to do.
Many debt instruments are already infused with the tears of debtors...
My god I think we have come up with a new industry that might save America. Don't run from debt! Turn it into designer investments! Maybe we could get some celebrities like Tiger Woods to throw his name on the stuff!
Night
If you anger a narcissist, expect narcissistic anger in return...you will pay...dearly...better to walk on eggshells around N's...and pretend you like them...
Our present culture encourages and rewards narcissistic tendencies, even in otherwise 'normal' people.
mp wrote:
"You say you want a revolution..."
mp wrote:
TPTB should fear the coming of the day when the snark stops.
"You folks are going to snark yourselves right into inaction"
Tell that to Swift or Payne...really now....
I stick it to the man every day in a million small, petty, pointless and utterly ineffectual ways..
~splat
Oh boy! The OTBs gone TU!
NYC’s Off-Track-Betting Seeks Bankruptcy Protection (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
mp wrote:
Ouch, you hit a nerve here.
Folks, I've seen this coming for a very long time. I've seen it in my profitability. Where were you then?
Business has got to share with labor. I've said it here many times. Jimmy Goldsmith said it in that 1994 interview.
This thing can work, but the entire regulatory mechanism requires overhaul and people need to wake up and stop believing in all of the sacred cows that have been sold to them.
You folks are in DENIAL.
Thanks for that TJ
"The Untold Story"
splat wrote:
Okay, I have to tell a true story from 1978. As a repair trainee I was paired with Dave, a 25-y-o white guy with an Afro driving a VW Bug. We visit a customer and as we're riding the elevator down, he takes out the emergency phone, cuts the line and puts it in his pocket. We walk to his car, get in and he tosses onto a huge pile of similar phones in his back seat.
I asked him, "What's going on? What are you doing?"
And he says without a thought, "That's my way of getting back at the world".
mp wrote:
No, I think some of us just understanding what it feels like to have been alive during the fall of the Western Roman empire around 500AD (ish).
~splat
mp wrote:
I was in denial until about 2002 or so. Since then I've engaged in one helluva self-education in economics, politics, psychology, etc. The truth is ugly, and the future is uglier. I've known we'll hit the wall for 5+ years now, but I have yet to figure out what's beyond that wall.
"This thing can work, but the entire regulatory mechanism requires overhaul and people need to wake up and stop believing in all of the sacred cows that have been sold to them."
Yep, like believing bought and paid for idiots, who's only life skill is winning rigged popularity contests every few years is going to "overhaul the regulatory apparatus" in a way that benefits other than those who paid for their legislative seat. That would be a very HUGE sacred cow for people to stop believing in. There are a whole host of others...
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Yes, how does the rack break? Is it tight? Or do we just get a few balls off of the corner?
Am I gonna have to dust off my copy of "Steal This Book" and start posting chapters for you newbies?
mp wrote:
With regard to what?
splat, the 10.2% may very well be the peak for U3 (which counts people recieving benefits). Count the people whose benefits expired and/or can only find a part-time job (U6 unemployment) and the number is 17.5% and rising.
The real question is when will U6 peak. And that is NOT the question CR or Goldman Sachs is answering.
Well, you have begin by accepting the fact that not all trade protectionism is BAD.
You have to accept the fact that not all "free" trade is GOOD.
You have to accept there is a MONSTROUS level of cronyism in government. Third-world-level cronyism.
You have to accept that unionism is not BAD PER SE.
You have to accept that NOT ALL businessmen are crooked.
And you have to accept that Republicans and Democrats alike are COMPLICIT.
Then what?
I thought the U-3 number came from the household survey?
Can someone verify?
do you still have a copy ... really
mp wrote:
BINGO !
BINGO !
Understatement
Agreed
It seems to run the bigger the business the less capable the overall leadership is.
How do you tell them apart again ?
~splat
You're denying that you DO something about it.
mp wrote:
Right on all counts.
4thstreet wrote:
Careful Dawg, he's probably thinking about stealing it...
GDD9000 wrote:
Put me down for 99.9K
Edit: Also a 'three' for BFF. Just a quick drop in before
...
I agree with all of those things.
That doesn't put me in a position to acquire and operate a bunker with a machine shop.
I am working on getting in good with the railroad.
Let me know if you know of any other depression resistant organizations that need a lawyer.
I'm in for 300k lost but the Birth-Death model adds in 225k, so the headline number is -75k.
Dow up 500 points.
Bank on it.
If you're pissed, and you should be--I've been pissed for over thirty years--get on the phone tomorrow morning and start talking to people.
Tell your wife, your children, your damned mayor, Congressman, local newspaper.
Tell them you're pissed.
And tell them the way you're going to vote is with your feet and your money.
In denial about how Big the
is and how old it is...
Badger boy wrote:
Indeed, I know friend and family who's spouses aren't working but can get by for now on one income. I would class these folks as the under-employed and the number to continue to rise. Some have returned to education which also helps 'hide' the real statistics. But what we're facing is large scale unemployment where there simply are not the jobs available. The new economic reality the jobless economy.
~splat
no no... going back that far to revisit and rethink all those years hurts my head........ what year was that anyway
4thstreet wrote:
Someplace along with my copy of "Bored of The Rings" and "The Tao of Physics" and a Marks Handbook 4th ed. Weird library man.
Where's AllenM... this is right up his alley:
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Arizona Maxes Out Line Of Credit In Two Weeks Flat
merchants of fear: the
has been with us since Babylon, and probably earlier.
The globalized
dot fedgov wants people to work cheap or for next to nothing...
Amazon says 1971.
" Well, you have begin by accepting the fact that not all trade protectionism is BAD."
Of course it is. Using force to stop to people from engaging in trade is always bad.
"You have to accept the fact that not all "free" trade is GOOD."
Only if you accept as fact that some robbery is good...I don't, so I don't. Now if you mean MORALLY, well shove it. Your morals are yours; keep them.
"You have to accept there is a MONSTROUS level of cronyism in government. Third-world-level cronyism."
And so the solution is to have these morons use force to do GOOD, like restricting that "BAD" free trade etc...Uh huh...
"You have to accept that unionism is not BAD PER SE."
You mean without the use of force that gov't imposes....sure ok...but that sounds suspiciously like free trade in labor...
"You have to accept that NOT ALL businessmen are crooked."
Any one who claims that is a liar...or they wouldn't eat...
"And you have to accept that Republicans and Democrats alike are COMPLICIT."
Duh?
What ever the # is tomorrow, upward revision to come.
well... i still have a copy of 'the tao of physics' ... to be honest i am not sure i ever read more than a few pages of it and not sure why i have it... but that's the story with half my library........... some day (maybe)
The
will take til all is Third World...the Third World Order...
"Bored of The Rings"
Ah, the tales of Goodgulf, Frito, Spam, Moxie and Pepsi...I got a weeks detention for falling out of my chair laughing reading that in Algebra class...memories.
Nytol.
Exactly what can we do about it?
I think the snark is a form of gallows humor. Kinda like the 8th of the 7 stages of acceptance. I have noticed an increase in snark among people I interact with lately. 6 months ago it was anger. Now, it's something darker, more cyncial.
Comrade Misean is Dope wrote:
Theory time is over, boy.
We're in Reality now.
So, Misean, you think it a good idea to have army helicopter parts made in China?
What can we do about it?
Get rid of the monetary middlemen...first.
The only act that gets a Congressman's attention involves writing them a large check. Anything else is a waste of time.
People are realizing it. If my sample of politically active people I know is anywhere near accurate, I predict record low turnouts in 2010.
I'm Mad as Hell
⁖
Or threatening to write one to his next opponent and pledging to raise money for whoever that might be.
Comrade Misean is Dope wrote:
The Ballhog from Villanova
Thank you very much for your participation. We'll be sure to get back to you if we have any questions.
Can't vote out central bankers...however...
Legolam and sawing the sheep's leg shorter on one side.
It's a dilemma and a puzzle...
I did a lot of that in the last six months, some of it very direct and personal. Not clear if it did any good but I am getting fewer fundraising calls.
And a mystery...
You can start by calling your Congressman and telling him you're going to vote with your money.
Tell him you're fed up with engaging in "free" trade with currency manipulators.
Tell him you're fed up with being forced to compete with child labor.
And how will the opponent be any different?
mp, I apologize for pressing here, but after seeing the hope in change" become "bait and switch" I think the next generation is done believing.
EHP: thanks for the link... I think the 'madness' level is rising.
Trade protectionism is bad. But unbalanced trade is worse.
What do you think would happen if a genie showed up one day and promised to give your country anything it wanted for free on an ongoing basis? Does the picture you imagine look familiar? And what would happen if one day many years later the genie changed its mind? We're going to find out.
Badger, if people would create enough of a shitstorm, up-and-coming politicians would tap into it.
And very quickly.
strange, just watched a crappy hand held shot trailer of Iron Man 2...
guess they had a better copy out there on YouTube but Paramount pulled
it for copyright. on a trailer shown in theatres? why the hell would you do
that? I'd love to have a chat with the guy in distribution about that choice...
...
from what I saw the Robert Downey 'Tony Stark'is acting more like Pacino in
Scarface, esp, in the US Congress scene...
....
oh yeah... UE, gimme a moment
hmmm. i was still living in berkeley.... now i live in fairbanks........ as far away as i could get i suppose.
This just sounds like that you don't want rules and people should be able to do whatever the hell they want.
I'm pretty sure that ship sailed with Rousseau, even nascent man knew that wasn't possible.
It's a MAD thing. You have to start early in the cycle and threaten a lot. If you get to the point where you are actually giving your money to the opponent at the end of the cycle then you have basically lost.
Still not clear if it works, at least not at the low four figure contribution level where I am.
The wheel that squeaks the loudest gets the grease.
It's a law of nature.
Still not clear if it works, at least not at the low four figure contribution level where I am.
It doesn't. Obama had to raise $1 billion for his campaign, as did his opponent McCain. That figure doubles every election cycle, so in 2012 each candidate will need a $2 billion war chest.
To raise $2 billion over 4 years, Obama and his Republican opponent each need to raise $1.2 million per day EVERY DAY (weekends and holidays included). Who has that kinda scratch in one place concentrated? Hint: It's not the middle class.
Who are the Fed's current investors?
I don't have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It's a depression. Everybody's out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel's worth; banks are going bust; shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter; punks are running wild in the street, and there's nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there's no end to it.
We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat. And we sit watching our TVs while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that's the way it's supposed to be!
We all know things are bad -- worse than bad -- they're crazy.
It's like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don't go out any more. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we're living in is getting smaller, and all we say is, "Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials, and I won't say anything. Just leave us alone."
Well, I'm not going to leave you alone.
I want you to get mad!
I don't want you to protest. I don't want you to riot. I don't want you to write to your Congressman, because I wouldn't know what to tell you to write. I don't know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street.
All I know is that first, you've got to get mad.
You've gotta say, "I'm a human being, goddammit! My life has value!"
So, I want you to get up now. I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window, open it, and stick your head out and yell,
"I'm as mad as hell,
and I'm not going to take this anymore!!"
⁖
Find some friends.
Let me tell you something. For $1,000, you can buy facetime with any Congressman in that august body.
Go as a group and give him the happy message.
If that happens a few times, he'll get the message.
it's the Krakken!!!
We're in a movie?
old
vid mash-up with Orson Welles but his character type of Harry Lime
must populate Goldman all throughout the building (remember that Lime was
selling adulterated penicillin in The Third Man)
YouTube - Goldman Sachs Orientation Film Uses Orson Welles scene in 'The Third Man' to Rationalize Excess
How are central banks linked?
I'm pretty sure most folks here aren't in denial. I know people in denial, and they don't watch Fed Chair confirmation hearings.
Some people know what's going on, and they're pissed. The Left vs Right arguments tend to take a back seat when you start talking economy - that's one nice thing about all this.
all of the chairmen are incestuously inbred brothers/fathers
Well, if you know some, tell 'em to get off their sorry couch-worn asses and start doing something about it.
Start rattling the establishment's cage.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
One of my top 5 movies of all time. It was almost a prediction of the modern infotainment media.
~splat
Concur with Speed.
I called over 15 senators yesterday to register my tally as 'no'. Even better than facetime with the rep, get some facetime with the staffer for the finance/banking/business aspects. That's where inroads get made.
mp,
If we ever get true campaign finance reform (100% public funding with bans on soft money), things may change. When that day comes, I will believe that a difference can be made.
I will end with George Carlin, who sums up my feelings. I am this jaded and only in my early 30s. Scary, huh?
YouTube - George Carlin ~ Owners of the country
Not just face time - for somewhere between $1K and $2K most of the ones in competitive districts will personally call you and ask you how it's going, starting about a year ahead of the next election.
But they don't particularly like it when you say something negative, and it's not clear whether the things I have to say are sufficiently similar to the things they are hearing from other people.
When a nation has no jobs...or fewer jobs every month...it's all over but the shouting...long process involved in destroying a nation...it's been done before over and over with pretty much the same formula being implemented now as has worked or been an accident in the past...
Fine, but get some goddamned facetime with SOMEBODY.
That's what makes shit happen.
Forget about "emailing" your Congressman, or writing one more letter. That's bullshit. All that gets "filed."
Call them on the phone or visit their office.
MAKE IT PERSONAL.
EHP
Network was written by the great Paddy Chayefsky. he was such a perfectionist that he didn't allow one word to be changed in his scripts. I'm sure even Syd Lumet had to abide by that rule, yes, he had that kind of leverage. Plus, any actor who dared to go off book (improv) well, they'd soon be sent to the Paddy Gulag.
Due to gerrymandering, "Particularly competitive" describes about 10% of the House of Reps races.
How bout Cape Fear? Good one about how a family is almost destroyed...by a man representing what the system did to him...
ugh.
That day will never come unless YOU do something about it.
YOU and thousands of other YOUs.
Right now, there are millions of pissed off people in this country, who are only now beginning to realize that they've been sold a bill of goods.
TAP INTO IT.
Globalized MIC military Industrial complex...
It's a little more than 10%, but it doesn't have to be your home district. $1,000 to the next district over gets you basically the same treatment. And it's the competitive districts that get all the attention from the party leadership because that's where majorities come from, so once you've got that person's attention you have a chance of getting somewhere.
merchants of fear
I hope you are talking about the original Cape Fear and not Scorsese's crappy remake...
that ending was way too over the top.
here's a vid I shot of Nora Ephron talking about Paddy Chayefsky and her use of Improv in movie making :
YouTube - Nora Ephron: Importance of Being Funny and Directing Comedy on Film
Now, WE are getting somewhere.
That's a damned good idea and a hell of a lot better than snarking and whining.
Why doesn't someone here do a Conjure-style thinkpiece on that and figure out who we need to cough help?
There are 140 visitors and 79 users online, that's 219 people.
219 people times $100 is $21,900.
Get the idea?
You CAN start a shitstorm.
The tower of Babel all over again:
Correlation Between the World's Tallest Buildings and Economic Downturns « Alpha Dinar- talking GCC finance
Unless I am mistaken I don't think that 180 guests number is accurate in any way. KCopp explained this awhile back.
Aww, I have to pay and don't get a vote? Can I bring the shitstorm somewhere else instead?
Will have to consider carefully the opp cost, compared with other select investments, like... SHIPS! There are clearly not enough ships being built, on the water, and those millions of containers are stacking up ready to go everywhere but no sealift.
China Shipbuilding Plans to Raise Up to $2.15 Billion (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
(Wha? No never heard of dry ships. Trade is everywhere and forever. The WTO says so.)
C
Well, sorry I missed that, but it's got to begin somewhere.
Otherwise, everyone might just as well sit down and wait for their pink slip.
Hey, jobs is easy.
of course.
You get people to sell stuff, to other people.
Then they get sales commissions, nice slice off the middle with a cut to the nice man who recruited you, and a percentage for the
Then all you have to do is keep the churn high!
Churn, churn, churn.
Increases the "V" - you're done, and the bonuses keep coming.
Sorry, mp, this locomotive is headed full-speed for the end of the line and the elected representatives up in the cab CAN'T stop it. Not for love or money.
Once upon a time I studied the French Revolution. What struck me profoundly about it was that an awful lot of intelligent, politically-active people saw it coming. They saw it just as clearly as the commentariat here sees what's coming in the US.
And they were actually more successful in their efforts to avoid the outcome than we are (or can be) today.
It happened anyway. And it was godawful.
Yeah, well, it may interest you to know that China's state--REPEAT, STATE--construction company has received almost $2 billion in US infrastructure contracts.
So, that means the CHINESE GOVERNMENT is now building infrastructure in the US.
Call them on the phone or visit their office.
MAKE IT PERSONAL.
That's the problem.
I think people on this site know exactly what they need to do to get their Congressman's attention. But they rather come to the site to snark and pontificate, rather than taking an afternoon off to talk to their Congressman for a simple reason.
It is not personal.
It is not personal because whatever the government is doing, it is not coming out of their pocket this instance and it is shared by 300 million other people.
People have no problem getting on the phone and call their bank the minute they received a letter telling them that their interest rates are going up, because it is personal.
But when the government gives $700billion to the banks, it is not personal because the government is not telling anyone to pony up $200,000 to the bank. It is coming out of some treasury in the sky and will be paid for in the future by the taxpayers.
Some people, like you, can see how the situation will become personal and will do something about it right away. For most, it is easier to procrastinate and to wait for it to become personal. But once it does become personal for most people, it is usually too late.
my vote for best quote of the night...
'I stick it to the man every day in a million small, petty, pointless and utterly ineffectual ways..
~splat'
That move in the Asian markets post lunch break makes me wonder how "bad" the job numbers are.
Well, yChigo, you're probably right.
But, everyone here needs to realize that it's going to get REALLY PERSONAL and REALLY SOON.
"The Chinese government wants locally made components to account for 80 percent of Chinese-made vessels by 2015, as part of a wider drive to surpass South Korea as the world’s biggest shipbuilding nation."
From that article Counterpointer linked...same strategy that Japan and S Korea used previously to gain dominance. The question is, how much in campaign funds for incumbents is coming from Chinese sources?
Question more short-term, rosethorn, is how did that work out for Korea?!
C
Why don't YOU look into that and come up with a think piece?
They want to be more than just the world's shipbuilder.
They want a blue water navy.
A big one.
Well, Korea got the industry away from Japan, only now to be overtaken by China. The average South Korean has a much higher standard of living today than 20 years ago. Now ROK has gained a good chunk of integrated circuits and consumer electronics and cars, and they have one of the most advanced internet/telcom infrastructure in the world.
Forces in history can build to a point of momentum where they can't be stopped. You want to know how to stop what's happening? Go back to 1980 and re-elect Carter, or better still to 1968 and nominate Gene McCarthy instead of Humphrey.
Do you think the Industrial Revolution could have been stopped circa 1775? How about the rise of the scientific method? The Catholic Church did its best in the latter case and it had more power than any single nation has ever had.
What we here need to do is survive what's coming. Survive the collapse, then survive the coming fascism that tries to hold the collapsing pieces together, and the second collapse that follows it, and then start re-building with a new national ethos.
And that ethos had better have a deep rational foundation, deeper even than the foundation that supported this republic of ours. Because obviously even the Constitution, which to me is one of the greatest written works of all time, could not stand in the way of human greed and deceit.
I think I will. Thanks for the suggestion.
Times by Max Hastings:
IT is hard to be optimistic about the outcome of President Obama’s troop “surge” in Afghanistan. The additional forces sound large in headlines, but shrink small in the mountains. The commitment is intended as an earnest indication of America’s will. But neither the number of troops nor the timeline that mandates a drawdown in less than two years is likely to impress the Taliban, who think in decades, or for that matter the Afghan people.
Most decision-makers on both sides of the Atlantic now privately believe we are in the business of managing failure, and that is how the surge looks. The president allowed himself to be convinced that a refusal to reinforce NATO’s mission in Afghanistan would fatally weaken the resolve of Pakistan in resisting Islamic militancy. Meanwhile at home, refusal to meet the American generals’ demands threatened to brand him as the man who lost the Afghan war.
<<<<<<<
Obama said the Taliban unlike the Viet Cong are not a broad based popular insurgency in his speech. True. But who would you rather have in power Karzai or Diem?
Don't forget to identify the front companies, at least those you can find.
unirealist wrote:
Any recommended reading for those of us who didn't get more than the reader's digest version?
OK, Duke. This is your last warning!
EEngineer, "Citizens", by Simon Schama, is wonderful and accessible and can be bought used pretty cheap.
Did you see the Charlie Rose interview with Jimmy Goldsmith?
That's a very good start.
homedad43 wrote:
Good point there. Why waste time with a figurehead. Instead, address a decisionmaker...
ychigo wrote:
Meh, I lost all hope after the TARP vote. And I spent $$$ on that.
I'm sorry, but I fail to understand the fatalistic attitude of many here.
You folks have got access to the greatest goddamned bully pulpit ever invented, the internet.
If half of you here started blogs addressing these issues, and started linking with one another, you really could raise hell.
I just don't understand it.
About the rational basis for a new ethos: it needs to emerge out of the understanding of the relationship between Somethingness and Nothingness. You can't get any deeper than that. If you can ground your ethos, your principles, your political and economic theory, that deeply, they become irrefutable.
Metaphysics and science and everything else merge into a single discipline that has been called Unireality. Which explains my handle.
unirealist:
I beg to differ. Gene McCarthy would have lost to Nixon. The only thing that made the Nixon/Humphrey battle close was the 3rd party challenge by THAT southern governor. Had Perot not stepped in in '92 Bush would have been re-elected.
I wouldn't call it so much as fascism as I would a neo-feudalism.
Gene McCarthy would have lost to Nixon
Very likely true. The nascent revolution got crushed by a backlash counter-revolution, (just as my university sociology professor predicted!), hence Nixon and Reagan.
Still, it's nice to dream that we could have elected a statesman at the time. IMO, that was the turning point for the republic.
I'm old and I'm tired tonight.
delete
not sure I agree with unirealist notion that an awful lot of intelligent, politically-active people saw it coming",
really? do you think in Madame de Stael's salons this was train roaring down the tracks was dominating the conversation. Not only did she know about every important intellectual in Europe but her father was also Necker. ..read Jacques Barzun on the subject for starters...
mp wrote:
I'm sorry, but I fail to understand the fatalistic attitude of many here. [...] If half of you here started blogs addressing these issues, and started linking with one another, you really could raise hell. [...] I just don't understand it.
What are you really asking them to do? I've been reading CR's comments section for a little over a year and a half and I haven't seen you articulate any clear-cut actionable set of principles or guidelines of any sort. The "I'm reporting on what Conjure Bag says..." shtick doesn't qualify BTW.
A very small, select number of bloggers have made it into the big time in term of eyeballs. The rest are utterly unread, save by close friends. Links are of limited use in this matter - they don't generate anywhere near the crossover audience you think they do.
If you're arguing for people to pool their money and buy the politics they want then, yeah you have a point. The internet and blogging link networks might be very helpful in supporting such an effort..... but it won't come from a group of guys who share their wet dreams about contrarian funds all night long. If you want to excite people to take political action, go to the political blogs.
With all due respect, it's not hard to understand: no one wants to get fired for not being a real Merican. You're probably established enough in your IRL community that people make allowances.
Things are going to have to get worse before they can get better.
mp wrote:
You folks have got access to the greatest goddamned bully pulpit ever invented, the internet.
If half of you here started blogs addressing these issues, and started linking with one another, you really could raise hell.
I just don't understand it.
I've been calling Schumer and rep. Maloney dozens of times since TARP. Chuck's office rarely picks up.
Fluffy the Obese Persian Cat wrote:
The "revolutionary" Internet is concentrated back into Establishment hands now.
And that's how most people want it.
You're watching a slow-motion replay of a diluted Germany circa 1932.
If you're not part of the Plan, you get destroyed economically.
The network of conspiracies and slander in place is far greater than you realize.
I see now why Citi didn't make the list of TBTF banks. They're not one. No more than the Agencies. As a GSE, they should go into the GSE fail bucket by volume and tenor.
Citigroup Said to Need Treasury Sale for TARP Payment (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
C
Just leaving Tokyo this evening after an absolutely beautiful day. The highways were pristine, the topiary was manicured along the highway to within an inch of its life, and the underemployment was absolutely devistating in its scope.
I worry this is what we have to look forward to, with more potholes and less foliage.
Because...? The foliage will have been eaten? Turned into baricades?
I seem to recall it was about this time last year that people started posting about shortages of stand-alone wood-burners for home heating.
It's almost nostalgic to think of early presentation phase of the illness.
YouTube - Jimi Hendrix Manic Depression
C
Nah. Just butchered the delivery. I was refering to the "manicuredness" rather than the quantity. I literally saw six guys doing landscaping in one of the parks today. Five were intently monitoring the situation, one had a weed whacker. scary.
On a happier note, retail sales in November were a dog's breakfast!
[US Retail Sales Miss in November][]
[US Retail Sales Miss in November]: U.S. retail sales miss view on weak holiday start
| Reuters
Guess everyone has heard Sen Bunning goring Bernanke in the hearing today? ZH and clusterstock are carrying it. Nice closer at about 10min - "your Fed has become the creature from Jekyll Island".
And this supports one of the points earlier, some of the best access points are the fin/banking advisors, liaison staff and speechwriters for the reps in question. Even if not everyone in the room had read Griffin, and only heard the allusion to a dimly-remembered horror movie, it still got a variety of laughs (recognition, nerves, trepidation, for audacity etc) and was memorable in itself.
Yerp futes are home to
today. The opens are looking jaggy.
C
/doh, and an hour later he sees the hundreds of comments on this very hearing on CR. Hit F5 on diligence next time...
Shoeless wrote:
My mom is like so many people here, always pointing out "the waste" to me.
And over and over, I ask her, "What else do you want them to do?"
She's got three kids out of work but still can't see that the problem is lack of work.
She's got three kids out of work but still can't see that the problem is lack of work
broward,
There really isn't enough work to go around. We already produce plenty. It's a matter of distribution.
How much oil do we needlessly burn in order to support unnecessary jobs that are not only useless but counterproductive? People need to re-discover free time. A used paper back on the couch or a walk in the park are worth more than a trip to the mall.
Angry Saver wrote:
I know that and you know that.
How do we convince the others?!
broward wrote:
arrange to have a hooker show up with a PPS and scented oils
noob goldberg wrote:
Stimulus to build homes, condos and office towers and warehouses? That should put a bunch of people back to work
/snark
sdtfs wrote:
This is why I cannot get on the Warren for Treasury bandwagon - she is and always has been an academic tucked away at places like Harvard Law. Not in favor or alumni of
getting the job, but not her either.
Fluffy the Obese Persian Cat wrote:
Great post! You are a bit harsh, BTW. I know what you mean though about those who create blogs and then drop self serving links back and eventually these avatars drop off, fade away, whatever. And you might be wrong about why nothing or not much is parlayed.
A blog, for success, must have content, characters, and coolness, slathered liberally with tolerance--a gentle hand upon the tiller as it were. Here you and I find all.
I don't blog. I sell advertising. Been to a lotta, lotta blogs. No content beyond 'let me tell you why my cat is special', or 'I am midst this grand undecipherable crisis', or whatever. Fuck me, it's life. No more and no less than each of us must endure.
Besides, it's far more simple to just bitch out loud instead of doing all the heavy lifting of research beyond wiki.
Terry wrote:
I like my idea better.
volker the viking wrote:
It's not just a matter of simple.
There's finite bandwidth and it's largely spoken for.
Very hard to dislodge existing patterns and then for what?
Most people, even now, don't want bad news, much less a prophet of suffering and pain.
broward wrote:
this whole e-commerce marketing assumption rings bogus to me, I never bought in, except as it exists as opportunity to generate business locally from local participants plus the occasional lightning strike from an outsider passing through
Are we losing audience here? Is this what the chatter is about?
Would be interesting to notebook how participation tracks with economy, is there an inverse relationship, etc
Most folk glaze over when you speak truth to them. They are on auto. Some will shake out of their depression and stumble over this or many other sites. Then later they nod off again.
volker the viking wrote:
Some of the numbers are real.
I've done projects that had high, provable ROI but usually at the expense of existing labor (and sometimes competitors).
A lot of of it is empire-building within large companies now, though.
It's often hard to quantify except as a measure of internal satisfaction.
broward wrote:
sure the megastore can make it work
I think I have an idea for how to take blogging to the next level.
,rads y apparatchicas,
Another potential Fail-Safe-Friday today?
Or, they will go some political blog and wade in the cesspool to argue their points of self-interest to prop up a pov on hot button issues which increasingly is becoming irrelevant.
I'd love to see some hard statistics on internet traffic, MSM news and information sources on the internet versus blogs.
It cost time and money to participate on the internet. What I think may happen is more people connecting dots after their emotions are drained from becoming unemployed. What will they choose to keep, cable, internet, phone as their finances deteriorate??
The one which serves multi-functional purposes may not win in value-added category. We'll see. I've been around for freaking ever since the days of the BBS and Prodigy. I'm alarmed and increasingly concerned that billionaires are going to limit information flows based on ability to pay. I'm old school, the internet and its functions were free as it serves the purpose of freedoms of thought, news serving a public utility that isn't a concern of corporate controls or interest.
Here, I find intriguing analysis, thought experiments, etc. Here I seek answers to the conundrum we all are either facing now or will face in the not too distant future.
I am a realist however, I don't have the funds or intellectual capital to sell my pov to a politician or popular blog creation. I know I'm a nobody with no power. I think that conclusion that we are all powerless in this Brave New World is increasingly being realized by people who believed the government was acting in their interest, is selected by voters and will listen to their constituents. The people of the USA don't know their place in the world....yet.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I have constructed a model, it's available here:
Derivation Of Potential Due To Electric Dipole | TutorVista.com
sort of a George Costanza Strategy for explaining everything about everything, as in the universe is made up solely of potential
volker the viking wrote:
Are you being funny?
The real crash was 2001.
What's followed was the Feds attempt to prevent reversal of the long-term interest rate cycle.
Offshore labor dropped costs, which increased demand but at the price of faster market saturation.
Nobody wants to talk about that.
Many companies are gate-keepering by charlatans with a motive of self-preservation, and they filter out objective viewpoints and ideological threats. Libertarians and technology geeks both have heavy ego-investment in ideology. They can not be objective.
All held together by trashing social fabric and the monetary system.
There's a lack of ethical integrity in many areas now.
apparatchica vtv,
'Potential' is a French word, and loosely translated, it means you haven't done a damn thing, yet.
OMG..that it!
George Costanza = Deep Thought (chess computer) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Who knew?
broward wrote:
not at all
I think I have an idea for how to take blogging to the next level.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
well, don't we learn a bit when we goggle a google
....That's the look some even get during 2-hours of church once a week.
The Newest Norm: "Our Blueprint For A Greener Future"...........Offset for 45,000 miles...........$8 UgaStoves........Uses 2/3rds the charcoal of a open pit fire...............Yep........this Cap & Trade sure will help the economy & environment.....no game-playing here!
Edit: Oh........Adv by BMW............... Carbon Capitalists Warming to Climate Market Using Derivatives - Bloomberg.com
Hey BSR! wazzup?
and WTF are you going on about?
broward wrote:
I suggest that unfortunately, we have not avoided debt-deflation, this is the fight now to hide this reality. Indeed, for the large broker/dealer/bankers that is exactly what is happening through complex means of a secretive federal reserve and treasury and not just in the USA. Its also happening on Main street. People are 'squatting' in homes without paying mortgages, taxes or insurance while banks are loathed to foreclose as this would further deteriorate their balance sheets. I think what we have is classic deflation in CRE, RRE and in other segments of the economy (worldwide). There is stagflation in energy, food, health care, and consumer non-discretionary save housing which is in deflation including for renters.
Its clear if one looks at history that neither economic paradigm is correct and why new thought is required. What is different now as opposed to the 18th, 19th, and even the 20th century are the sheer numbers of people and historic global inter-dependencies not only in finance but of basic resources. Few today in this world can live independently, farming is industrialized so even though there might have been economic Armageddon in the past centuries, individuals were able for the most part to subsist, communities were solid and supportive, basic living could be supported. There was suffering but not on the scale we will see today. Now teeming cities of people who are disconnected by generations of how to survive elsewhere or with few resources, exist worldwide. Political chaos and civil unrest will the the result of further stress. This part isn't rocket science, history is replete with examples. We forget we are animals and connected to nature. It is predictable what happens when animals become too stressed, even animals that are not normally violent towards each other, become that way.
Politically and in models of economies and business, a top-heavy system exists that feeds off more and more underneath economically and socially. It is out of balance and increasingly so. This is eroding foundations which eventually will mean structural failure socially, economically and politically.
Self-sustaining homeostasis is a cornerstone of understanding in systems of nature, human physiology and those vastly more complex systems. Homeostasis means healthy systems which work in synergies. Homeostasis means mechanisms work in concert for sustained equilibriums that support life and its systems. What we have now is an invasive virus which is destructive. I really believe part of the problem is in core beliefs of what progress/innovation is. Ever increasing returns, ever increasing inflation, more complex market systems which hold no value and do not discover value. Systems which are self-rewarding but produce nothing in real productivity for those whose very life force is drained in the process. The protective functions of markets are stripped away in this economic paradigm.
We have AIDS in economics and like AIDS opportunistic infections that infect whole systems occur with ease as the gatekeepers fall away. Eventually, it is those infections which kill the host when homeostasis becomes impossible from major organ/system failures, homeostasis can't be maintained. This infection in economics extends into once shielded areas which existed for real progress and public good. Science, Medicine, Energy, Journalism, Education; nothing has been spared and why this isn't progress, it is destruction of our most valuable resources in human intellect and in human motivations/rewards which are productive rather than destructive. That progress isn't measured in dollars, market equities or gold. We are currently in a modern day Dark Age.
,rad mp implored us to get involved in the matters political earlier in this thread, but i'd say do just the opposite, as in get them out of your lives as much as is humanly possible.
Sooner than later, the public will turn up the heat on our elected officials, who have no answers to what's going on, and they'll mostly be gone.
The time to get involved is after the smoke clears, and the old guard is no more...
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
what follows this intro are two screens of vacuous, undirected, meta discourse rhetoric.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
they'll be right there waiting for your dumb ass to make a play
Yours is a plan constructed by bankers.
Methinks he's been drinking some 80 proof fermented moo juice, perhaps?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
To do so would validate it.
I suggest the edit button--you know, select all/delete.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Agree with this.
Increasing complexity == increasing risk but shrinking value.
Eventually hits a break-point, which I think was the global trade collapse of last year.
Almost none of the participants understand the risk.
History and impetus says the Feds will print until the cost gets higher than the return.
They will avoid a major failure via printing as long as possible.
apparatchica vtv,
Quite frankly, I have no interest in politics, i'm much more interested in wilderness, as it never lies to me.
....don't mind me volker..........I woke up on the wrong side of the cat-box......
Nanooo..........good definition. Many get the problem, AND, many also are rectifying it in their own way. I and my family dropped out. We are as close to self-sufficiency as possible. JD is the same only with a BIG budget. My family decided that to "fix" the problems was not possible. The corruption is widespread. Let it break and then rebuild - it will be easier. By then the looter-rats will be dead or have disappeared, and the economy will be at a standstill. Perfectly acceptable next step for us.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
spot on!
I'm entitled to my opines too, your opinion is welcome but I will let it stand. It may well be nothing but garbage but I'll own it and eat it and you can discard it and others can do the same.
The corruption is widespread. Let it break and then rebuild - it will be easier. By then the looter-rats will be dead or have disappeared, and the economy will be at a standstill. Perfectly acceptable next step for us.
The corruption looks very similar to what you find in developing countries. Here the lobbying is basically legalized corruption. It might take another 30-50 years for the economy to get to the point where people might be ready for a change. Can we wait that long?
The time to get involved is after the smoke clears, and the old guard is no more...
What if takes 2 generations for the smoke to clear?
I don't have anything better to offer though.... other than to stay starve the system of its fuel by being anti-consumptive.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
and it always lies before
BOOYAH!
Truth be said, it's been a lot of fun and quite the learning experience attempting to make oneself self-sufficient, in times of grave uncertainty such as the situation now before us.
I've learned a lot about myself and my surroundings...
Can we wait that long? ...........
do we have a choice? It's easier to use the system to "wear the bastards down"..........starve them outta their holes.........get out of debt, don't become subject to withholding, use cash only, and get lean and mean - like volker.
well good on ya Juvie!
no shit, but c'mon man, you might have said the same after just leaving rehab
Badger boy wrote:
U3 is dependent upon available debt issuance to fund the unemployment benefits, while U6 is dependent upon statistical collection methods. I am watching for when tax receipts bottom and U6 peaks. I wish we could find median individual tax receipts, but state and federal releases of tax receipt data don't show that.
If we are truly undergoing a structural shift as I suspect rather than just another cyclical phase, then I don't think you are going to see U6 peak until well into the next presidential term, say 2015. Even then, I would expect to see definitional changes take place (like Japan's increasing shift to part-time casual workers away from their traditional industrial model of lifetime employees, yet still declaring all is well with employment) before actual recovery in household balance sheets.
Don't watch the employment numbers, I say; watch the purchasing power parity of median households. A lot of frenetic activity (employment) can mask declining real wealth.
"December 4, 2009
Wang Xiaoyi, deputy head of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said China maintained a consistent allocation of its foreign exchange reserves across different currencies, Reuters reported Dec. 4. Wang stated that the weakening of the U.S. dollar will be a long-term trend but China doesn’t see big fluctuations in the near term. He added that China is not making any big adjustment in its management of foreign exchange reserves, and all operations are in line with existing “forex” management goals."
Black Star Ranch wrote:
GRRRRRRR! BOOYAH!
Rehab is for quitters, not my style.
"rehab"...........I'd have to agree - not my style either. This might be a first, JD.....me agreeing with you....
.....which means they're holding a high pair waiting for the flop.........LOL
Me too, but for those still stuck in debt, in large cities, like in the last great depression, they will suffer most. Its a huge challenge to become self-sufficient, in fact, I'm not sure without a large family one can actually subsist entirely independently now. It is subsistence living. No man is an island as the trite saying goes. That still doesn't mean ignoring the things one can do. First on that order is removal of debt, ownership of as much as possible and then preparing for what will be challenges. It scare the hell out of me, I know that the world operates on credit literally. If that freezes, then the fallout will be profound.
At the risk of Godwinning...
What chance was there for a Good German in 1944, to change things around 180 degrees in terms of leadership, after 11 years of things only continually getting worse?
Nanoo............yes, you can. All by yourself if need be. Even old ignorant cranky people can - just ask volker...or JD......
OK, I'm asking. I resemble that statement and add to that physical limitations. I'll win the cranky contest...bank on that one.
Kentucky's Bunning blocks reappointment of Bernanke | McClatchy
Black Star Ranch wrote:
remember buying ammo and stocking up on food is okay
the heavy lifting comes with 'get to know your neighbors'
few can achieve sainthood in self sufficiency, like BSR or JD, it's gonna take a network
I doing it through a Neighborhood Watch, you can get grant money for it and everything.
Badger boy wrote:
Not the only act. The other acts are imminent (in seconds) threats of bodily harm (rather illegal), and any act that involves permanently decoupling wealth-generating activities from the tax collection and/or your commented-upon pay-to-play process. The latter is still surprisingly accessible to the majority of the population.
The key that opens your mind to the possibilities of self-sufficiency, is getting out of our big cities, which are almost the antithesis of being self-sufficient, sadly.
Nice one, volker.
mp wrote:
I'd go further. Attend committee meetings and legislative debates. Watch and learn how the mechanisms of government work. Combine that with the economic knowledge that's gained here and elsewhere. And then find a non-profit lobbying group you can use as a personal vehicle to get into that sphere and participate. It's really not that hard to get hear once you have a vehicle; an intelligent and informed voice is rarer than you'd think.
At the very least, society could really use a group of bullshit detectors who know enough about what's going on to see through the charade and let their family, friends, and circle of influence to become a trusted voice. Then it simply becomes a matter of having people listen to that voice.
And if a network of trusted voices could band together...why, we'd almost call that a political movement.
nemo
employment might be a lagging indicator
but unemployment is a gagging indicator
volker the viking wrote:
My husband and I are old 'security freaks'. It took extreme discipline to not buy into the kool-aid of the McMansion with all the trimmings so we could be debt free...and it took a long time of exercising that discipline, good fortune and timing. I almost lost it during the dotcom bubble. Now we are attempting to be as self-sufficient as possible like many people are, here and throughout rural places up here.
BOHICA!
Skyin' 'em
-11k, 10.0%
MOONSHOT!!
Unemployment has peaked for this cycle; the recovery has taken firm hold; the Fed can now take steps to remove excess liquidity.
Now get out there and shop!
apparatchica vtv wrote:
This is the key to self-sufficiency. Nobody is really an island unto themselves, and if you are lucky and happen to have great neighbors, you've almost won the battle right there.
We have an excellent dynamic here, as our neighbors are all very good @ a myriad of abilities, which tend to not overlap.
Before buying a doomstead, do a little research on your prospective neighbors. I don't mean it in a Mrs. Kravitz way, but check them out on the internet, it's so easy to do.
BULLSHIT...........(re -11K)
B/D model added 30k.
Fake Jobs
release
Employment Situation Summary
Lots of good comments overnight.
Why can't we both take action now (as ineffectual as it might be) AND rebuild after the collapse?
Clearly the Elephants and Asses care about nothing other than getting elected.
Calls against/for TARP were supposedly running 90 - 10 but it passed anyway.
That should tell you something.
The Reds and the Blues are out to F#ck you and the faster you accept that; the better off you'll be, IMO.
Wall St. produces nothing of value so all those mega bonuses are just squids sucking the life blood out of our economy.
They are looters and pirates and have done more harm to America than anyone.
The foundations of our economy are build upon edifices of sand and the late great prophet Jimi Hendrix told us that Castles made of sand crumble into the sea eventually.
The collapse has already occured; there is no stopping it. The best one can hope to do is survive the coming chaos and attendant fascism as TPTB attempt to maintain their post WW II, oil dominate culture. And you know what? Their day is over; it is our time.
So no matter how low you are; grab those bootstraps and give those F#ckers HELL!
and happy BFF.
Very true. One has to be careful about those relationships though in my experience and how close/involved they are in your personal business. This is where I fall down as privacy is high on my list in quality of life. I have nothing to hide, its just a neuroses.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Why do you hate America so much?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
well I sure do
well, um, I meant nothing illegal
Anyone else smell some bacon?
,rad Gnome wrote:
We have a major decision to make regarding our country's infrastructure. It's ancient and decaying rapidly. Our roads are a mess, but do we rebuild them only thinking of an old delivery system, whose days might be numbered?
Eric wrote:
yes everybody it's bullshit
look back at the HUGE revisions they've been doing
does anybody really think this is within a nuclear detonation of the truth?
volker the viking wrote:
It's obviously much better than the numbers.
Get out there and shop.
thats just it isn't it. We know its lies, more and more people are realizing the lies...once confidence is lost it is difficult to regain. Then what?
apparatchica N-N,
One of neighbors I feel quite certain, would give mp a run for his money, in terms of machine-shop, etc. He's very skilled & industrious and his wife really knows how to garden, and grow fruit trees.
Those are all skills I knew nothing about, see how things mesh?
nanoo
internet! and phone cause its dsl.only got cable cause it gave me 10 dollar discount of cable internet. got rid of cable internet told sil if he wanted cable then put it his name. he did.but the internet to me is a need ill even go on with dial-up.
agree about americans not knowing their place in the world, ooh and its going to hurt when they find out.it will be interesting to see which country comes out on top and becomes the new king of the world. imo
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
You need to spoof their caller id into thinking your from a media outlet.