Bears In Hibernation

Inquiring minds are looking at a chart of Investors Intelligence courtesy of Bernie Schaeffer.
Bearish sentiment is the lowest in two years and I am also told at lows seen only 3 times in the last 25 years.

From yesterday; I'll bet this is a leading indicator of an upcoming "top". After all, you can't have a top until everybody's in

Cinco-X wrote:

From yesterday; I'll bet this is a leading indicator of an upcoming "top". After all, you can't have a top until everybody's in

My DEC 107 SPY puts may yet live.......

w10949 wrote:

My DEC 107 SPY puts may yet live.......

They will - for at least the next 11 trading days...

w10949 wrote:

My DEC 107 SPY puts may yet live.......

I weep for your puts.

Boy it's a good thing Oblame doesn't want the Chamber of Commerce to join the historic jobs summit. They would just muck up the whole photo op thing.

The consumer is only 70% of the economy, so jobs and retail sales don't matter.

Mike:

Left a long reply the other night on the Scarlata Hempstead garbage mess you cited.

I looked at the Comptroller's audit. The Scarlatas are not union members; they are management. Busting unions will not bust patronage. In fact, a stronger sanitation union might have raised hell about the Scarlatas publicly long before the recession caused taxpayers to pay heed.

Spiegel really laid into Obama's West Point speech. Nice to hear how our would-be collaborators are feeling about our future furtive forays.
+++++++++++++++++

Never before has a speech by President Barack Obama felt as false as his Tuesday address announcing America's new strategy for Afghanistan. It seemed like a campaign speech combined with Bush rhetoric -- and left both dreamers and realists feeling distraught.

One can hardly blame the West Point leadership. The academy commanders did their best to ensure that Commander-in-Chief Barack Obama's speech would be well-received.

Just minutes before the president took the stage inside Eisenhower Hall, the gathered cadets were asked to respond "enthusiastically" to the speech. But it didn't help: The soldiers' reception was cool.

Opinion: Searching in Vain for the Obama Magic - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

The America of 1998 had a crime rate 6 times that of 1933 America...

Rape and domestic abuse were less reported then. Police were more corrupt.

Early retail reports suggest sluggish November
Early retail reports suggest sluggish November; holiday uptick didn't offset rest of month

Uh-oh-

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

The America of 1998 had a crime rate 6 times that of 1933 America...

Not really. A combination of factors make it look that way. Some is that there is more crime and that's expected for a richer, more urban nation.

volker the viking wrote:

I wonder of one of those here smarter than volker (and that takes in quite a lot) construct a graph showing the weekly rate of improvement, with an estimated number of weeks it would take to get jobs lost back, job growth based on the assumption of a level suited to create a positive GDP please?

A few weeks back, Mish suggested that it could take 10 years for employment to return to normal. Multiply the number of years by 52 to get weeks-

"Although falling, the level is still high suggesting continuing job losses."

Suggesting? Doesn't the number say there ARE many new job losses?

Cinco-X wrote:

10 years for employment to return to normal

well I wouldn't disagree with the smartest blogger on the intertubes

And I am thinking that I am thinking ten might be optimistic

and I think it makes for, whoops would make for an interesting perspective in a chart

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Remember when we peed in our pants over much ado about LTCM?

When you consider that LTCM was effectively the tremor signaling the current crisis, we should've been more concerned than we were.

I can't believe they haven't fixed that typo yet.

Someone please email them.

josap wrote:

How long does it take to blow through savings, 401k and loans from family?

Don't blow through the 401k to pat for your mortgage. Once you're done, they can still repossess your house, but they cannot take away the money in your 401k. It's protected.

Cinco-X wrote:

we should've been more concerned than we were

we should be more concerned than we are

there IFIFY

and you are correct

Cinco-X wrote:

and that charts were included.

sounds like him, back in a sec

After Dobbs announced his resignation on air on Wednesday November 11, CNN suffered a 25% decline among all viewers in Dobbs' 7pm time slot, and a 26% decline among adults 25-54.

Meanwhile - surprise, surprise - CNN's competition in the 7pm slot at FOX News, The FOX Report with Shephard Smith, scored its highest rated month of the year in November with more than 2.1 million total viewers and just over 500,000 viewers in the A25-54 demo.

CNN: Missing Dobbs - Real Clear Politics – TIME.com

nope, can't find shit

volker feeling really bad, low self esteem

have issues

Andorra has a negative unemployment rate by employing 100% of its population as well as citizens of neighboring countries:

List of countries by unemployment rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

volker the viking wrote:

nope, can't find shit
volker feeling really bad, low self esteem
have issues

There, there......
Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020 - It Looks Grim

Cinco-X wrote:

Early retail reports suggest sluggish November

I think there was a holiday this year (Thanksgiving) which isn't usually in November. That impacted the numbers.

Nuke commented about the rise in proportional "public sector" union employment in NY. I responded specifically to that. I'm all for State consolidation of bureaucratic operations. The Republicans will never agree to it with a Democratic Governor, a split Senate, and a Democratic Assembly.

Cinco-X wrote:

Don't blow through the 401k to pat for your mortgage

Agreed. However not sure most people understand that, or are too proud to not go through all funds before defaulting on a moral obligation or explaining to the kids you are losing thier home.

Rob Dawg wrote:

industries that had been being squeezed by unnecessary regulation.

Going all conspiracy, RD?
Let's go back to burning rivers and try for Bhopal here, shall we
(I have no good answers to how we allocate pollution, FWIW)

2016, that is a damn long time.
Normal will need to adjust long before then.

josap wrote:

2016, that is a damn long time.
Normal will need to adjust long before then.
Click here to refresh

keep going, there's another chart much further down

it's a very long post

and you're right, what does it matter--2016 v 2020?

I can't get my Yahoo e-mail, finance, or anything to refresh. Anyone else having this problem? Thanks.

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

Nuke commented about the rise in proportional "public sector" union employment in NY.

Well there is that too. I'm not sure at what level it breaks down but when median public sector wages exceed those in the private sector without considering the generally better benefits found in the public sector at some point it becomes unsustainable. When the ratio of public to private increases to 1 in 5 or 1 in 4 it almost certainly breaks down.

noob goldberg wrote:

It tastes terrible...

sorry, don't do shit jokes

like I said the other day, we're headed from grim to grimmer

Juvvie D
nope, I was standing right there in 2008 and knew said bartender had conversations with Shepard about lack of and where he might score some... of course the bartender
was carrying and there is a special place you can smoke secretly in Nevada Smith NYC
...
I just don't like hypocrites...

volker the viking wrote:

like I said the other day, we're headed from grim to grimmer

Fair enough, I edited it to remove the low-brow reference

Been gone for a little while. Where's Dirk? Did he hear from Santa yet? Been waiting for his Christmas perDijkions. Ha,ha,ha,ha, And where's my two friends Mel and slumdog? Love to dine with Mel and enjoy putting in the stops for slumdog. Ha,ha,ha,ha

Rob Dawg wrote:

That would be the infrequent Northwest Passage as the Northeast Passage is routinely navigable. If it didn't happen in 2007 it sure won't be happening for some time. Could have happened in 1946 but there was no need.

Unless its guaranteed to be open, no one is even going to bother. Who cares if it's open for a few weeks? It'll take you a week to get up there, and if it closes suddenly for some reason, like the ice flow shifts, the boat owners' out thousands of bucks and a few weeks of travel. Even if it's opening, we're a long ways away from a commercially viable and operational route, in my opinion.

Duke of Con Dao wrote:

I just don't like hypocrites...

Must be lonely out there-

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Thu, 12/3/2009 - 4:47 pm

Bring out your debt.

Excuse me is that catchphrase not (c) copyright US FED ?

,rad Duke,

Sometimes I find myself mentally landlocked in Laos on a river, and one of the proprietors of the many bars on the side of the slow paced water, extends a staff about 25 feet long towards my kayak, and reels me in, where I have a shake, and then another...

Bernanke Confirmation Hearing

Cinco-X wrote:

Don't blow through the 401k to pat for your mortgage. Once you're done, they can still repossess your house, but they cannot take away the money in your 401k. It's protected.

I agree, but I know far too many people that during the 2001 or so layoffs that did just that, and in the end many of them had to sell the house anyway, or worse lost it to foreclosure.

So they ended up without the house and no more 401k, and bad credit in some of those cases.

People have emotional attachment to houses. I sometimes think a lot of us here are flat out wired different.

We got some more good news on the intial claims for unemployment insurance front today, with the number nof new claims dropping to 457,000, a decline of 5,000. That brought the four week moving averge down to 481,250, a drop of 14,250. The decline in this weeks inital claims brout the level to its lowest point since September of 2008. It was also the first time this year that the four week moving average fell below the 500,000 mark. As the graph below ( from Blogger: Page not found shows, we have seen a dramatic decline in new claims since they peaked up back in April. Clearly the pace of layoffs has slowed down significantly. However, the problems seems to be more on the other side. It is not people losing jobs, but the inability of people who ared unemployed to find new job. Still, unlike the last two recessions, we have seen no sign of forming a high plateau of intial claims, and that is a very good sign that wwhen job growth does come back that it could be stronger than expected.

The news was not nearly as good on the continuing claims front. Regular state claims for unemployument totaled 5.465 million, up 28,000 from last week. In addition, after 26 weeks those claims run out and people move over to extended claims, which are largely paid for by the Federal governement as part of the stimulus package. There the growth was dramatic this week (actually the regular continuing claims data is from a week ago, and the extended claims is from two weeks ago, but sine it was released today I'm refering to it as this week's data). Extended claims jumped by 323,000 when the two major programs are combined. This brought the level to 4.457 million, up from 4.134 million "last week". Combining regular and extended claims, that means there are now 9.922 million people getting unemployment checks in the country. For those that say the Stimulus package has had no impact, I say tell that to the 4.4 million who would be left with no income at all in the absense of the stimulus package. Tell that to the banks like Bank of America (BAC) that might hold their mortgage, which they would have no hope of being able to continue to pay without the extended claims. Tell that to Wal-Mart (WMT) where they still are able to go to get the neseccities of life. As they spend thei unemployment checks, that money flows back into the economy. If they were not spending those checks at Wal-Mart, it would have to lay off the people stocking the shelves and working the check out counters. Unemployment insurance is refered to by economists as an automatic stabilizer of the economy, and it has been helping, and not just those that are getting the checks.

Tomorrow we find out if the rather steep decline we have seen in initial claims over the last month (indeed the last seven months, but particularly in the last month) has translated into a further decline in the number of jobs lost in the economy overall (it is a net number between job losses and new jobs, while inital claims only looks at job losses). Of particular interest will be the dration of unemployment numbers, whicha are at all time highs by a very large margin. It is long term unemployment that does the most damage to people, not an unscheduled vacation when you know your origional job will come back.

When you first get your pink slip, people will cut back spending a bit, but they will not drop many long term commitments if they think they will get another job soon. People fall back on savings, or if they don't have much in the way of savings, they run up their credit card balances. Eventually though, the card becomes maxed out, and the savings are depleted. Meanwhile their skills start to deteriorate and they become less appealing in the job market. Ususally if someone has been out of work for more than six months, when they do find a job, it is at a substantially lower salary than the job they left. This means that one of the most lasting effects of the great recession will be a further hollowing out of the middle class, as those people who suffered bouts of long term unemployment drop out of it.

While this was a mixed report, I think the initial claims side is more significant than the continuing claims side, and thus I count this report as a positive for the economy and the markets. However, the big news will come tomorrow.