Honestly, the home inventory data is rigged since banks are keeping houses off of the market.
Hell, even Cramer acknowledged it the other day even though he used that - with caveat that the USG is condoning it - as rationale for dismissing shadow inventory.
Right, but the new home inventory is probably solid, where is the reason to keep it off the market? Surely the new home developers are desperate to flow any cash they can.
This post by CR shows pretty well, what has become the new normal.
Vastly reduced activity, vastly reduced inventory to balance it.
That's until we get jobs and household formation back.
Would these new home sales for October be influenced by the tax credit? I thought since people had to move in before December 1st, new homes would need to be under contract a while earlier. Or did I misunderstand?
Negative household formation aka consolidation means anything more additive than bulldozing existing stock results in a widening supply gap.
I can only imagine the reaction of the Chinese and other holders of USD when a program to demolish existing housing stock is proposed.
"Well, Hu, we're going to use this debt to purchase an asset that we're going to immediately destroy. I assume the implications for economic growth are obvious, so I won't bother explaining them".
how much are sales up due to cash4huts,anyway to find out? if a new home is one that never has been lived in and the fed has/is buying mbs any possibility thats both pushing and pulling on the market.
just curious.
i think we should pause for a moment and give thanks for all the positive news, especially the record 2009 wall street bonuses, without which there would be nothing to trickle down.
I really wish someone collected stats on the number of homes destroyed, bulldozed, replaced with other types of structures, etc. I've looked before, but no success. Anybody here seen a good estimate?
The number of structures might be falling. If more than ~400,000 homes are being taken down each year, that would be the case.
I don't know that there's any real reason to believe that new home sales will always be a leading indicator, but to think that new home sales will lead us out of this or any other recession is goofy.
Some of the big builders started homes last summer as "spec homes" because of the tax credit.....I do believe that this number increased because of the tax credit.
"Well, Hu, we're going to use this debt to purchase an asset that we're going to immediately destroy. I assume the implications for economic growth are obvious, so I won't bother explaining them
Maybe if we buy him dinner and call him Michelle.
Seriously, the perverse incentive economic policies are so inexplicably uniformly counterproductive that rational analysis is a fools errand.
Obviously thin pre-holiday trading but, my sense is that people see the dollar continuing to slide. Why trade into USD assets so you can lose a couple days or weeks of value when you unwind the trade and come out of it?
An interesting observation from my neck of the woods. Ran to the local grocery store last night to pick up some last minute ingredients I forgot to buy last trip for T-day. This is a normal tradition for me, as an absent minded philosopher and I was dreading the usual last minute crowd. The store was empty. Manager had clerks on standby but not clocked in. There were aisles with carts of Thanksgiving items waiting for shelf space. It was a very weird experience. Manager actually checked me out and we started talking. Said in the 7 years he had worked there, this was the absolute lowest volume of T-day sales. He was convinced everyone went to Wallyworld, and he wasn't looking forward to the markdown on his over abundance of holiday fare. Very worried about the future of his store in general as well. Said the demographics had changed for his customer base. Used to have a nice balance but now most of his customers were over 50. Very few families. Only green shoots there were in the produce isle.
Yes, I know people are saying that, but my understanding was that to get the credit, you need to be IN the house by December 1st, and new home sales are counted when the contract is signed, and new homes take a while to complete, ergo, someone signing a contract for a new home in October would generally expect to miss the credit (not knowing at the time it would be extended.)
Vonbek, quite crowded here in Dallas yesterday evening. Moderately crowded as we got there, looked like a zoo right as we left. Glad we didn't get there 45 min later.
Niponese might be thinking about a second strike soon, if Ben & Timmay keep up their downward pressure on the dollah. Take a look at the Yen... KILLED!
Closing would have to occur by Dec.1 under original terms...October getting dicey, but the story I got from a couple different directions was 4-6 weeks to close...
I will find out in a few hours. Got saddled with hosting T Day when mom busted her ankle on Saturday. Thinking about buying a dozen roast chickens from Boston Market and some sides and calling it good.
We joke about bulldozing, but for old homes with steel pipe, leaded paint, asbestos tile, poor insulation, and a meth lab in it, it's a fine use of time and money to take that down to the ground. Taking down half a million total piece of *&^% homes a year for a few years sounds like a fine idea to me. There are a number of them where owners can't be found, or where they would ask "How soon can the bulldozers show up? I want to watch"
MIL is the provider this year while we host, she is picking it all up from Honey Baked Hams (dunno if they have that back East, we do here on Third Coast) - not cheap but quality has always been good
What store? I was at an Albertsons. We're a little bit outside of Fort Worth, lost on the outskirts of suburbia. Definitely seeing an up trend in Wall Mart. Parking lot is packed 24/7. Local Kroger is moderately full. But other grocery stores are empty.
the story I got from a couple different directions was 4-6 weeks to close...
I heard similar numbers. Personally, we have a 10 day close. Could have done a 5 or 6 day close if not for Thanksgiving. Sellers in financial trouble and cash buyers can make for a really fast close. The title company did one of them in 3 days recently.
Seriously, the perverse incentive economic policies are so inexplicably uniformly counterproductive that rational analysis is a fools errand.
If it was a private firm, we'd call any such proposal what it is: insane.
How would we respond if Bob the factory owner walked into the bank and sat down with his banker and said, "Joe, I've got a problem. 30% of what I sell is bought by my employees, and since demand is down my warehouse is full of inventory. Since I have full inventory, I can't make any more, which means my employees can't work, which means they can't buy their 30%. So what I propose is that you float me a $10 million line of credit to cover my expenses to suppliers and I'll go back and light my warehouse on fire. That way my guys will have work to do and will start buying my stuff again".
Here in Philly they regularly knock down houses. The only trouble is, it usually takes fifteen years to get around to it.
Detroit has freelancers doing that. Maybe you can get some venture capital money. It would be a great pitch. There is plenty of idle equipment and manpower.
Well if it was Central Market, of course it was full. Unfortunately my budget doesn't let me shop at the Fort Worth one very often. Love that store, just spend way to much money there.
This was the question I had. He didn't really explain. My guess is he offered people extra hours if it got crowded, and these people showed up to work if they could. But they weren't on the clock, just standing around the help desk drinking coffee and talking.
Grocery store anecdote: My wife on her last two shopping trips has saved over 30% ($30+ off of $90 ish) from listed prices. We keep an accordian file of coupons and have biased to buying stuff when it's cheaper.
Still buying pretty much our usual moderate diet. Kroger is our local grocery of choice, but there is a new HEB locally, so that may be concentrating some minds...
some investor guy, here, we have blocks of row houses. (I refuse to call them "homes" since they're empty.) You can't knock them down with heavy equipment without risking taking down half the block. It's handwork, brick by brick.
(Unless you're the Police - then you can burn down an entire block with impunity.)
As for the VC angle, I already have a job I don't have.
The existing and new home numbers would make more sense if we had a "destroyed home" number-- the ones that are lost to fire, demolition, natural disaster, etc. each year. I'd bet real money that number has been going up as unoccupied homes in foreclosure start to deteriorate. In other words, how far below "replacement level" are we in the total housing stock?
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers fell in November for a second straight month as job losses threaten to limit spending heading into the holiday shopping season.
The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment decreased to 67.4 from 70.6 in October. The measure was higher than the preliminary reading of 66 reported on Nov. 13.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, may be uneven through early 2010 with a jobless rate that is projected to stay above 10 percent through the middle of next year. Such caution will limit households’ contribution to growth, encouraging Federal Reserve policy makers to keep interest rates near zero to foster the recovery.
“The labor market will bottom out only in the second quarter of next year,” Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report. “The consumer is a long way from being a major contributor to the recovery. This recovery is going to be slower than normal.”
The existing and new home numbers would make more sense if we had a "destroyed home" number-- the ones that are lost to fire, demolition, natural disaster, etc. each year. I'd bet real money that number has been going up as unoccupied homes in foreclosure start to deteriorate. In other words, how far below "replacement level" are we in the total housing stock?
I'll bet the loss numbers are still very small. Houses that have deteriorated probably have not been written off. And the only bulldozing I have seen is tearing down old wrecks to build a new McMansion on the property.
I also never thought I'd have to tell my two year old to stop licking the bugs off the bumper of my car.
You do have video posted to youtube of that don't you? At a minimum you need to keep that to completely humiliate them at some later stage in life - it will be a good character building process for them.
i went to the store monday and the traffic was like it was friday,wondered where all those cars were coming from,seemed like lot of people were doing their shopping on monday but i was too busy trying to find stuff on my list.
my store is walmart my mom and pop.
havent been out since,so i do not know what the sitution is in mid week ,probably is total mess.
In the first Great Depression food rotted in the fields as people went hungry in the cities and truckers were idle lacking suppliers or customers at both ends.
In the second Great Depression houses rotted in the fields as people went homeless in the cities and realtors were idle lacking supply or customers at both ends.
In the second Great Depression houses rotted in the fields as people went homeless in the cities and realtors were idle lacking supply or customers at both ends.
Detroit has freelancers doing that. Maybe you can get some venture capital money. It would be a great pitch. There is plenty of idle equipment and manpower.
Sounds like a federal bailout plan. Give cities or states 20K for every vacant house listing under 5K. 5K to buy the property, the rest to knock it down to create vast new unincorporated (disincorporated?) areas and siphon off some piles of cash to kick public pension problems down the road...
We must keep two year olds apart, my almost two year old doesn't need anymore ideas. He turned the water hose on in the back yard a few days ago while I was answering the phone. In less than a minute he created mud and managed to distribute it all over himself. Never had this problem with my eldest. He is a clean freak, hell he takes forever to eat his dinner so he doesn't drop any crumbs...but the youngest is more in the vein of Pigpen. Wonderful war of order vs chaos in my household right now with me trying to keep the balance.
On the surface, many of the reports today have some characteristics. However, I always remember, lurking behind the walls is our national debt, like termites silently eating away at the 2 x 4's. The soft, easy to chew wood that is our financial foundation
And those essential elements of personality are there from day 1, I am convinced...the ability to express them and how they are manifested will be influenced by environment and upbringing, but the major element of the essential "who" comes that way from the womb...
Looks like the drop in trucking matches a 'surprise' drop in durables.
New orders m/m -0.6% vs prior 1.0% and expected 0.5%
Ex transport m/m -1.3% vs prior 0.9%
Year / year showing a reduced cliff diving over 2008, but still well down. As I posted last night, isn't this an important factor in the sales tax declines?
And the only bulldozing I have seen is tearing down old wrecks to build a new McMansion on the property. - SL
You know, all the time I've been involved in construction, a certain percentage of the work is demolition. That goes for everyone else I know, too. And the price of a "demo" load at the landfill has been rising pretty steadily for years. In the past, there was a lot of remodeling demo, and some replacement/infill on existing lots. As well as lots of urban renewal in the cities. But the "new demo" work should be in areas with high foreclosures, areas like Florida with lots of mold and mildew. I wonder if HUD keeps those numbers. Or maybe BIA?
Can we get $3.oo+ national avg on gasoline going into Xmas, to really get the consumer into the spending mood ? Maybe, if Thanksgiving miles driven gets goosed enough.
the only bulldozing I have seen is tearing down old wrecks to build a new McMansion on the property.
Even in this case, there genuinely is a new home built, but there is a smaller one being taken down. The square footage goes up, but the number of housing units doesn't.
Have a dangerously unstable and unsustainable economy based on getting suckers to sell worthless asset claims to each other and raking transaction fees off the top? Turn in your broken clunker economy, and we'll destroy the inefficient FIRE engine so it can't be used again. You can exchange it for a shiny new command-and-control financial system, a libertarian utopia or even try an experimental decentralized electronic-cash model.
Citi Calls for More Mortgage-Principal Forgiveness - WSJ.com As the main problem of the mortgage industry changes from house-price depreciation to unemployment, the mortgage market needs more programs "where there is principal reduction for borrowers with negative equity" in their home, "as opposed to just a loan restructure," Mr. Das said.
"The solution" of the mortgage crisis "has to move into the next gear," he said. The government's Home Affordability Mortgage Program, or HAMP, has "not quite addressed the issue of unemployment."
Uhh. nothing prevents C from performing principal reductions on loans that it owns.
** Why am I thinking about this historical episode?**
I think he is talking about Timmy resisting the Wall street reform. You think?
*> November 25, 2009, 8:58 am
Ramsay MacDonald
Ramsay MacDonald was Britain’s first Labour Prime Minister. After a brief first stint in the first half of the 1920s, he led a more solid coalition to power in 1929. One might have expected big changes in a country that was, at that time, still deeply class-ridden and marked by huge inequality.
But MacDonald wasn’t able to get very far with his legislative agenda, thanks in part to obstructionism in the House of Lords. Worse, his key economic officials — in particular, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the equivalent of the US Treasury secretary — were wedded to economic orthodoxy, leaving them unwilling and unable to cope with the coming of the Great Depression.
The result was both economic and political failure. Real change didn’t come until after World War II.
** Why am I thinking about this historical episode?** I’ll leave that as an exercise for readers.
Have a dangerously unstable and unsustainable economy based on getting suckers to sell worthless asset claims to each other and raking transaction fees off the top?
I do have more fun and enjoyment now when I listen to the dribble on CNBC. I have the mindset that they are cheerleaders for the , helping to inflate and pump the market to the average schmoe. Keeping this in mind and framing my viewing as such, it makes CNBC more entertaining and often very funny!
ooh, that leads into Marc Faber's latest which was just nasty. He is of course a notorious bear but his vision led him down the path of a war to divert us from an imploded economy. When he was asked with whom...he said an enemy will be materialized. jeebus. I fear he maybe right as debt forgiveness of nations doesn't come easily particularly when we are talking former superpowers with super-duper-extra-delux high debt. Yup its my latest
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/25/2009 - 11:14 am
I think you're on to something. Better be careful though, with ideas like that you might get recruited.
Thanks, but I lack the pedigree and experience; more importantly, I can't grow a beard to save my life.
One, today's october numbers were achieved with ~ peak fiscal stimulus impact (and the threat of house credit expiring). As the stimulus wanes next year let us see how well these numbers hold up - especially after a lot of small businesses fold following xmas.
Two, as a retailer let me say that traffic does not equal sales. Are people spending as much? Purchasing only discounted items? Only the retailer can tell you how much is in the register and margins achieved. Sales tax revenue continues to remain well off so I'm not buying into any real resurgence of spending.
Last tuesday..something changed...I don't know what but the whole dollar down, market up thing just stopped doing what we all expected it to do. Conversely the dollar up market down didn't work the next day.
I have an inkling that the Fed is pushing and pulling on swap lines in a massive way but, of course, there is no way to confirm it.
US Census Bureau publishes preliminary estimates... A necessary part of the process of issuing these early data involves the issuance of subsequent revisions....
The "Range" shows the largest decrease (or smallest increase if no months revised down) and largest increase (or smallest decrease if no months revised up) over the 12 months. The "Average" is the arithmetic mean of all 12 months. Ideally, this would be zero if the positive and negative revisions equaled each other. The "Absolute Average" is the arithmetic mean of the absolute value of the revision. This indicates the average size of revision without regard to sign.
"WASHINGTON -- A lot more Americans are feeling stressed out by debt this holiday season, raising the glum likelihood that they'll behave like Scrooge rather than Santa.
Fully 93 percent say they'll spend less or about the same as last year, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. Half of all those polled say they're suffering at least some debt-related stress, and 22 percent say they're feeling it greatly or quite a bit. That second figure is up from 17 percent just last spring, despite all the talk about economic recovery.
Most people -- 80 percent -- say they'll use mostly cash to pay for their holiday shopping."
Except of course that it would make their various capital ratios go poof. What they really mean is they want the Govt to pay for principal reductions.
Which means they want future generations of taxpayers to pay for them. Unless of couse we can find some sucker willing to buy Treasuries prior to repudiating the debt. Hu knows - maybe we will end up on the right side of that trade.
If GE is looking to sell its broadcasting units and that Comcast thing doesn't work out, how about selling CNBC to Viacom, who could make it a subsidiary of Comedy Central?
Cramer and Jon Stewart could be on each others' shows regularly.
Drow is good, I was thinking more classical...like Pan.
edit: Resistance, are you playing DragonAge? Birthday present to myself, and I am pleasantly surprised. Didn't think I could run it yet, in the midst of upgrading, but it actually runs pretty good on my slightly out of date computer.
It seems to me the inventory of homes on the market is lower than it seems, in a way. At the low end of foreclosures, you've got trashed out disgusting places that no one wants to buy because they are uninhabitable, and need too much money to make them habitable. At the other end, you've got owners in denial about the value of their homes, pricing them far beyond any possibility of getting a sale. So the inventory of viable, habitable, realistically priced homes is a subset of what's actually out there.
And there's likely a "dribble" of foreclosed, nasty homes coming on the market for years to come, driving up the apparent inventory, but not necessarily turning over, and getting worse and worse, meaning less habitable, over time. At some point, that stuff gets so bad, it has to be bulldozed.
On Dec. 18, Kaine will present a budget to the General Assembly's Joint Money Committee. The budget he is crafting includes revised spending for the remainder of fiscal 2010, which ends June 30, in addition to spending proposals for fiscal 2011 and fiscal 2012.
Last week, revised revenue forecasts presented to lawmakers indicated up to an additional $300 million shortfall in the $77 billion budget for fiscal 2010.
Lawmakers also were told last week that revenue could fall roughly $619 million in the next two-year budget cycle, while spending needs could increase another $2.9 billion, primarily because of increased costs of the Medicaid health-insurance program that serves poor and disabled Virginians.
Kaine, who has cut more than $6 billion from the budget since March 2007, said yesterday that no function of government will be spared, including Medicaid, public education and higher education.
"You're going to see adjustments to virtually everything in state government in this budget," Kaine said. " . . . People are going to see an awful lot in this budget they don't like."
Thanks, Gabyjan: seems that without your 0.45 savings it would be about where my local brand is currently (no such luck with saving any)...national brands are more expensive, Unleaded gas...2.70ish. fluctuates almost up to 2.80 one week ago or so. But its on taxation. I like to do this from time to time for a on the street view of whats going on where in the nation since we are so far removed geographically.
I just got back from checking out a foreclosure in a relatively nice part of town here in Columbia, South Carolina.
What a s*ithole!
Rotting fascia board, missing shingles, missing switch covers (who takes these?), etc.
Do the bums or kids have to piss in every single one?
And what is up with all these ripped up porno mags?
Bob, before the extension, people had to close before Dec 1st. And it was too late to buy most new homes in Oct (unless it was finished inventory). I'd guess these numbers weren't impacted by the tax credit - most of that is going to existing home sales.
I just got back from checking out a foreclosure in a relatively nice part of town here in Columbia, South Carolina.
What a s*ithole!
Rotting fascia board, missing shingles, missing switch covers (who takes these?), etc.
Do the bums or kids have to piss in every single one?
And what is up with all these ripped up porno mags?
Now back to your regularly scheduled !
Are you talking about a foreclosure or what to me sounds like an earily accurate description of our economy
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/25/2009 - 11:32 am
edit: Resistance, are you playing DragonAge? Birthday present to myself, and I am pleasantly surprised. Didn't think I could run it yet, in the midst of upgrading, but it actually runs pretty good on my slightly out of date computer.
No, I may have to check it out though. I'm not that much of a gamer anymore (and was never hardcore at it) but do appreciate the aesthetics of design and a good storyline.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Bond insurers were mixed during morning action Wednesday after Financial Guaranty Insurance Company, a leading company in the industry, was ordered by regulators to suspend all claim payments.
FGIC said the New York Insurance Department told it to immediately suspend paying any and all claims after the bond insurer reported a statutory policyholder deficit of more than $865 million for the third quarter. Bond insurers mixed; FGIC suspends claim payments - MarketWatch
This has a very good story. Closest to Torment I have played. Gameplay is great, story is better. Wasn't expecting it to be honest. Didn't think they could make games like this anymore. Alignment is subtle. Conversation choices and moral decisions... wife and I are having a lot of fun with it after we get the kidos to bed. I am not much of a gamer anymore either, but decided to give this one a try and was glad I did.
thanks for that, I was wondering about it and tempted, so maybe thats my diversion over the holidays. Does it take hours of figuring out the controls and is it a fps type? PC game? Nevermind, I'll get on the site and see.
We haven't got very far yet, but the succubus defending her ensorcellment of a templar...as providing a service and meeting the needs of the needy was great. could take lessons. It was great.
No, mouse driven with clickable toolbars. Very easy to play. It is a pc game. Don't let the blood theme throw you off, it isn't there for gore alone, central to plot. Nice little button in the settings to turn persistent gore off too. Don't need my games to be quite that realistic.
Very similar in gameplay feel to Baulder's Gate. Story feel is Torment though.
Thank you Vonbeck, I like games but haven't been much of one in recent years. So for those of us who have lives that can't mean 50/hrs per week figuring out spell casting, hacks, etc. its refreshing to find one that accommodates with a good story line.
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Connecticut plans to join Ohio in suing credit-rating companies for “negligent, reckless and incompetent work” in grading debt purchased by state pension funds, according to Attorney General Richard Blumenthal.
Sufficiently advanced malice may be indistinguishable from incompetence.
HA! That's probably an absolute truth! It sure fits large corporation's management style. As any organization gets larger the management has to become closer to "the average" and the only way to compensate is by hiding the incompetence (averageness) with "advanced" management techniques.
Gold's new high is probably a direct response to the institutional traders and commercials who were short, now covering on the last day of December's Gold Future. So, what we're witnessing is a short squeeze.
I will short it shortly, again, in my trading account, again for small money. This is the squeeze of all squeezes.
Gold's new high is probably a direct response to the institutional traders and commercials who were short, now covering on the last day of December's Gold Future.
It's been interesting to watch on this site, where it's priced for delivery in Canadian dollars. I'd see a huge spike in the USD price, like $15/oz or so, but then I'd wander over to Scotia Mocatta and see that it only influenced delivery prices by a few dollars. The appreciation in the Canadian currency really made its presence known the past few days.
Think about how a squeeze operates. The shorts are trapped. It's the final day. When will they step up for their cup of Hemlock? I'm thinking in the last 45 minutes of the trading day. If this puppy gets to 1194 today, that's my sell stop entry point. One more squeeze for the gipper, please. Or if not, at the close. Again, 1/3 of my trading position. I know this is a strong, young bull market. At some point, there's money on the short side to be made. What I'm doing is offsetting permanent long positions, so the loss is foregoing profit. Sinclair thinks this is nuts to do. I have this hair...
At the current rate of economic genius, Obama should be able to deliver on his pledge to cut carbon emissions by 17% by 2011. Economic collapse will certainly take care of those pesky emissions.
Isn't it frightening as a holder of US fiat valued assets to watch such stupendous losses occur?
Many have lost 3% of their store of value in the past 90 days. At that rate, they're eating a 12% loss per year. That's a nice tithing to the government to help things out, ain't it?
In fact, it's a destruction of buying power. The punishment is being handed out. All USD-marked holders are getting shafted, but they can't believe there can be any other reserve "currency". How about protecting one's store of value? Oh, caring about self is some type of slippery slope down the moral turpitude rathole? No worries! The rathole is jammed solid with banksters, greedy RE (homebuyers) gamblers, and the multitudes who benefited and supported that behavior. Rathole is filled. To thine own self be true.
noob, don't get me started on the JSF. We probably don't know the codes, sad truth. Biggest surprise for contractors around the world....JSF getting approved and built. Was supposed to be just another hole to pour money into without any practical results.
Hey, since we're going to spend a few billion to buy a bunch of JSF fighter jets off of you guys, would you mind sharing the maintenance codes with us?
We don't share macho military secret decoder ring codes with socialists counties that don't love freedom and democracy as much as we do.
(However, I'm sure they'll be posted on the gaming hacker sites by the time the planes are delivered)
Did anyone see this on reuters?
'BOSTON (Reuters) - Jerry Jordan, one of the top-performing U.S. growth fund managers over the past three years, says he's sold all his holdings of Apple (AAPL.O) and Google (GOOG.O) because their stock prices had gotten too expensive.'
Many have lost 3% of their store of value in the past 90 days. At that rate, they're eating a 12% loss per year. That's a nice tithing to the government to help things out, ain't it?
There's one more good bounce left in old glory, and I'm pretty sure someone willing to short the market in USD will make a double killing. Take those profits and plow them into when it's valued at $800, and wait for whatever comes next.
In the case of the fighter-jet program, the intruders were able to copy and siphon off several terabytes of data related to design and electronics systems, officials say, potentially making it easier to defend against the craft.
The nerve of those Brits, though, expecting to have full control over their own fighters.
The best part is we get to turn off the services, selectively, if you don't subscribe to the "Glod Service Maintenance" plan every year. Good luck trying to put down the landing gear in 2012.
In the case of the fighter-jet program, the intruders were able to copy and siphon off several terabytes of data related to design and electronics systems, officials say, potentially making it easier to defend against the craft.
Okay, I can understand someone sneaking a USB stick into building, or even hacking in and grabbing a gig or two of data before alarm bells started going off, but several terabytes? Good lord that's some serious incompetence in the IT department.
You mean Canada's JSF purchase? I'm not certain, but it probably has to do with the fact that our current tiny fleet of CF-18's is aging rapidly, to the point we can't even keep up with our NATO commitments.
Okay, I can understand someone sneaking a USB stick into building, or even hacking in and grabbing a gig or two of data before alarm bells started going off, but several terabytes? Good lord that's some serious incompetence in the IT department.
Or a portable disk. (It's really not that much bigger than a USB when put into a briefcase.)
Well, not the final hurdle. The squid still has until 12/31 to sell tax-exempt revenue bonds for this atrocity.
Welcome to Amerika. Forcibly taking private property to build the most expensive sports arena in history for the worst team in professional sports.
"If construction begins in the coming weeks as expected, Atlantic Yards will stand out in a city where 530 construction projects are stalled, sitting lifeless and without adequate financing in virtually every neighborhood.
Atlantic Yards would transform a busy intersection of two thoroughfares dominated by a railroad cut where Long Island Rail Road trains are cleaned between rush periods. The billion-dollar arena would be the most expensive in the country and home to Brooklyn’s first major sports team since the Dodgers left after the 1957 baseball season. Plans also call for 16 high-rise towers on nearby blocks, mostly residential buildings with as many as 6,430 apartments."
Nets: 0-13.
I used to cheer for the Nets. But like a lot of other New Yorkers, now I'm cheering against Ratner, the Nets and the squid. Great way to build a fan base.
Since anything except the topic is being discussed...
The EIA nat gas weekly inventory is out with a tiny uptick. This is the third week of November however so that is unseasonable in the extreme. And in the ever rational markets this news does what? Yup, moonshot. Up 30¢ over $5. Insane. I am so glad I have gone to all sidelines in meatspace because the virtual trading I've done this year would have been disastrous.
The EIA nat gas weekly inventory is out with a tiny uptick. [...] Yup, moonshot. Up 30¢ over $5.
I was going to ask about this when I saw natgas up to 4.85 this morning. The last I had looked (I've been busy elsewhere over the past week) it was around 4.25, so I was wondering if a larger than normal drawdown had happened in the last report. And to think supply has gone up!
So this is just a serious squeeze? Or reflective of excess liquidity? Or something else? Who knows...
EDIT: we covered new home sales for a while earlier in the thread. Once we get over 100 posts it becomes open season on thread topics, it appears.
I see where Dobbs is doing an about-face on his career of Latino-bashing, trying to set himself up for some sort of political run. Politics in action. Watta dope.
How does it feel New Yorkers, to know that the financial nucleus for your great city was a sham?
Ask that question once the reality of massive budget deficits are confronted and the state begins layoff's and funding cuts. Until then as long as that sham produces bonuses of which a decent chunk goes right to Albany its whistling past the graveyard around here.
"In the next few days, the developer is also hoping that the rating agencies will give his bonds an investment-grade rating and a lower interest rate. On Tuesday, a state-sponsored local development corporation authorized the sale of a combination of tax-exempt and taxable bonds.
“We anticipate having the ratings necessary to successfully market this transaction and fund the project by Tuesday,” said Greg Carey, a managing director of Goldman Sachs."
The unmitigated gall...anyone who buys these bonds is making a serious mistake.
JD - I wonder if this is news to them. I never believed in the economic miracle after I got an education, and had my doubts long before that. Finance floats an entire layer of privileged society on top of a sustainable base it gradually destroys, so eventually it is the lone island in an ocean of waste.
I went over to the sargent, said, "Sargeant, you got a lot a damn gall to
ask me if I've rehabilitated myself, I mean, I mean, I mean that just, I'm
sittin' here on the bench, I mean I'm sittin here on the Group W bench
'cause you want to know if I'm moral enough join the army, burn women,
kids, houses and villages after bein' a litterbug." He looked at me and
said, "Kid, we don't like your kind, and we're gonna send you fingerprints
off to Washington." LYRICS - Alice's Restaurant
well now no way i can be first,right
Honestly, the home inventory data is rigged since banks are keeping houses off of the market.
Hell, even Cramer acknowledged it the other day even though he used that - with caveat that the USG is condoning it - as rationale for dismissing shadow inventory.
Right, but the new home inventory is probably solid, where is the reason to keep it off the market? Surely the new home developers are desperate to flow any cash they can.
This post by CR shows pretty well, what has become the new normal.
Vastly reduced activity, vastly reduced inventory to balance it.
That's until we get jobs and household formation back.
homedad43 wrote:
Well, not necessarily new home inventory data. But certainly it's impossible to know exactly how big the total existing housing overhang is...
EDIT: beaten by Jonathan.
Strange country. Those skeptics that refused to aknowledge recession are the first to "believe" in recovery.
Negative household formation aka consolidation means anything more additive than bulldozing existing stock results in a widening supply gap.
Jonathan (profile) wrote on Wed, 11/25/2009 - 10:22 am
That's until we get jobs and household formation back.
's are standing by.
Yes. But... HAHAHAHA! I'm not holding my breath. Our
With the dollar hitting 52-week lows and all the "good" economic reports today, I would have expected a much greener day in the markets.
CR,
Would these new home sales for October be influenced by the tax credit? I thought since people had to move in before December 1st, new homes would need to be under contract a while earlier. Or did I misunderstand?
Rob Dawg wrote:
I can only imagine the reaction of the Chinese and other holders of USD when a program to demolish existing housing stock is proposed.
"Well, Hu, we're going to use this debt to purchase an asset that we're going to immediately destroy. I assume the implications for economic growth are obvious, so I won't bother explaining them".
New home sales
Weekly Unemployment Claims
Consumer Sentiment Index
Durable Goods Orders
All is well!!
Oxtail wrote:
Good economic reports may bring the bogeyman of 'Fed tightening' and 'increasing interest rates'.
Bob_in_MA wrote:
Sales of New Homes in U.S. Rise to Highest Since 2008 (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
It appears home sales graph lines are subject to gravity. Really, really strong gravity.
how much are sales up due to cash4huts,anyway to find out? if a new home is one that never has been lived in and the fed has/is buying mbs any possibility thats both pushing and pulling on the market.
just curious.
Who knows what evil lurks on the books of banks?
The Shadow Inventory do!
It's only natural that there will be less rise if DXY just keeps going down.
tncubsfan wrote: All is well!!
http://www.economy.com/dismal/map/default.asp
oxtail
give them time, they just woke up havent had their starbucks etc etc
i think we should pause for a moment and give thanks for all the positive news, especially the record 2009 wall street bonuses, without which there would be nothing to trickle down.
I agree with tncubsfan.
It's just that the falling $ and rise in gold prices are giving me this ominous sense of foreboding
.
Let's see some congruity somewhere please.
I really wish someone collected stats on the number of homes destroyed, bulldozed, replaced with other types of structures, etc. I've looked before, but no success. Anybody here seen a good estimate?
The number of structures might be falling. If more than ~400,000 homes are being taken down each year, that would be the case.
Oxtail wrote:
Check the early candidates for the exit, aka "Selling on Strength"
Money Flows: Selling on Strength - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
When it trickles down my face, will they tell me it's raining?
I was being facetious
I foresee
However, I'm still waiting for my
Must be the "Cash for Clunker Houses Program."
I don't know that there's any real reason to believe that new home sales will always be a leading indicator, but to think that new home sales will lead us out of this or any other recession is goofy.
Some of the big builders started homes last summer as "spec homes" because of the tax credit.....I do believe that this number increased because of the tax credit.
Jonathan wrote:
They should graze cattle or raise crops on their larger plots of vacant land while they wait for the market to turn.
noob goldberg wrote:
Maybe if we buy him dinner and call him Michelle.
Seriously, the perverse incentive economic policies are so inexplicably uniformly counterproductive that rational analysis is a fools errand.
Obviously thin pre-holiday trading but, my sense is that people see the dollar continuing to slide. Why trade into USD assets so you can lose a couple days or weeks of value when you unwind the trade and come out of it?
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Count on it
An interesting observation from my neck of the woods. Ran to the local grocery store last night to pick up some last minute ingredients I forgot to buy last trip for T-day. This is a normal tradition for me, as an absent minded philosopher and I was dreading the usual last minute crowd. The store was empty. Manager had clerks on standby but not clocked in. There were aisles with carts of Thanksgiving items waiting for shelf space. It was a very weird experience. Manager actually checked me out and we started talking. Said in the 7 years he had worked there, this was the absolute lowest volume of T-day sales. He was convinced everyone went to Wallyworld, and he wasn't looking forward to the markdown on his over abundance of holiday fare. Very worried about the future of his store in general as well. Said the demographics had changed for his customer base. Used to have a nice balance but now most of his customers were over 50. Very few families. Only green shoots there were in the produce isle.
tg,
Yes, I know people are saying that, but my understanding was that to get the credit, you need to be IN the house by December 1st, and new home sales are counted when the contract is signed, and new homes take a while to complete, ergo, someone signing a contract for a new home in October would generally expect to miss the credit (not knowing at the time it would be extended.)
Hu ordered take-out?
I was being facetious
Yeah, I know, but they are
reports on surface level.
BTW, I just got a phone call, and the caller ID said "Big Brother". When I picked up, there was no one there.
Which one of you guys was it?
Vonbek, quite crowded here in Dallas yesterday evening. Moderately crowded as we got there, looked like a zoo right as we left. Glad we didn't get there 45 min later.
Bob_in_MA wrote:
Thanks
Niponese might be thinking about a second strike soon, if Ben & Timmay keep up their downward pressure on the dollah. Take a look at the Yen... KILLED!
With the dollar hitting 52-week lows and all the "good" economic reports today, I would have expected a much greener day in the markets.
Exactly what I was thinking.
Maybe the market senses the government cheese that they were counting on into 2011 might actually be taken off the table sooner.
Closing would have to occur by Dec.1 under original terms...October getting dicey, but the story I got from a couple different directions was 4-6 weeks to close...
tncubsfan
and that is just how tptb want it.
you might being facetious,but others are going to read it all
I will find out in a few hours. Got saddled with hosting T Day when mom busted her ankle on Saturday. Thinking about buying a dozen roast chickens from Boston Market and some sides and calling it good.
We joke about bulldozing, but for old homes with steel pipe, leaded paint, asbestos tile, poor insulation, and a meth lab in it, it's a fine use of time and money to take that down to the ground. Taking down half a million total piece of *&^% homes a year for a few years sounds like a fine idea to me. There are a number of them where owners can't be found, or where they would ask "How soon can the bulldozers show up? I want to watch"
Most of your local grocers have a deal on entire meals for Thanksgivings, check them out.
MIL is the provider this year while we host, she is picking it all up from Honey Baked Hams (dunno if they have that back East, we do here on Third Coast) - not cheap but quality has always been good
Did Timmay ever get his John Hancock on our currency, as SecTres?
What store? I was at an Albertsons. We're a little bit outside of Fort Worth, lost on the outskirts of suburbia. Definitely seeing an up trend in Wall Mart. Parking lot is packed 24/7. Local Kroger is moderately full. But other grocery stores are empty.
energyecon wrote:
I heard similar numbers. Personally, we have a 10 day close. Could have done a 5 or 6 day close if not for Thanksgiving. Sellers in financial trouble and cash buyers can make for a really fast close. The title company did one of them in 3 days recently.
Here in Philly they regularly knock down houses. The only trouble is, it usually takes fifteen years to get around to it.
Two years ago two empty houses next door were rehabbed. They were leftover derelicts...
from the S&L bust.
I wonder if he'll just sign it "Turbo Timmay"
Vonbek777 wrote:
Dallas Central Market, plenty of people, as usual.
Vonbek777 wrote:
How does that work?
Are these people physically at the store?
CR.
Is there a way to put house prices against gold in a graph?
Thanks
,rade kristina
thats good
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Food good beer good football good mmmmmmmmm
+1 LOL!
Rob Dawg wrote:
If it was a private firm, we'd call any such proposal what it is: insane.
How would we respond if Bob the factory owner walked into the bank and sat down with his banker and said, "Joe, I've got a problem. 30% of what I sell is bought by my employees, and since demand is down my warehouse is full of inventory. Since I have full inventory, I can't make any more, which means my employees can't work, which means they can't buy their 30%. So what I propose is that you float me a $10 million line of credit to cover my expenses to suppliers and I'll go back and light my warehouse on fire. That way my guys will have work to do and will start buying my stuff again".
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Detroit has freelancers doing that. Maybe you can get some venture capital money. It would be a great pitch. There is plenty of idle equipment and manpower.
Outsider wrote:
I expected to see a bigger pop in the miner stocks after glod gapped up again overnight.
Here is the FED series on Real Disposable Personal Income, in a continuous downtrend since May of this year:
St. Louis Fed: Series: DSPIC96, Real Disposable Personal Income
Date 2009-05 2009-06 2009-07 2009-08 2009-09
Value 10125.6 9961.9 9951.1 9929.9 9918.0
(NB: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)
Well if it was Central Market, of course it was full. Unfortunately my budget doesn't let me shop at the Fort Worth one very often. Love that store, just spend way to much money there.
I almost choked on that one as well. It appears the CR crowd is on a roll today.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
There's nothing wrong with knocking down derelict homes for public safety reasons. But it should never be partyof an economic recovery plan.
You probably never thought those words would have to be typed...
This was the question I had. He didn't really explain. My guess is he offered people extra hours if it got crowded, and these people showed up to work if they could. But they weren't on the clock, just standing around the help desk drinking coffee and talking.
Grocery store anecdote: My wife on her last two shopping trips has saved over 30% ($30+ off of $90 ish) from listed prices. We keep an accordian file of coupons and have biased to buying stuff when it's cheaper.
Still buying pretty much our usual moderate diet. Kroger is our local grocery of choice, but there is a new HEB locally, so that may be concentrating some minds...
some investor guy, here, we have blocks of row houses. (I refuse to call them "homes" since they're empty.) You can't knock them down with heavy equipment without risking taking down half the block. It's handwork, brick by brick.
(Unless you're the Police - then you can burn down an entire block with impunity.)
As for the VC angle, I already have a job I don't have.
Vonbek777 wrote:
That makes sense ... doesn't sound nearly as Dickensian as I first envisioned.
The existing and new home numbers would make more sense if we had a "destroyed home" number-- the ones that are lost to fire, demolition, natural disaster, etc. each year. I'd bet real money that number has been going up as unoccupied homes in foreclosure start to deteriorate. In other words, how far below "replacement level" are we in the total housing stock?
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I also never thought I'd have to tell my two year old to stop licking the bugs off the bumper of my car.
I sure hope housing policy isn't being drafted by two-year-olds.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Ah yes, the Frank Rizzo Urban Renewal program.
noob goldberg wrote:
LMAO! Funny how kids expand your range of the possible...hang in there, the endless poop jokes are coming if you aren't there yet...
noob goldberg wrote:
Many years ago one of my biology professors pointed out that "Insects are the most neglected source of protein in the world."
I love all the schizophrenic economic reporting:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSAk5m0.P6U4&pos=5
scone wrote:
I'll bet the loss numbers are still very small. Houses that have deteriorated probably have not been written off. And the only bulldozing I have seen is tearing down old wrecks to build a new McMansion on the property.
noob goldberg wrote:
You do have video posted to youtube of that don't you? At a minimum you need to keep that to completely humiliate them at some later stage in life - it will be a good character building process for them.
i went to the store monday and the traffic was like it was friday,wondered where all those cars were coming from,seemed like lot of people were doing their shopping on monday but i was too busy trying to find stuff on my list.
my store is walmart my mom and pop.
havent been out since,so i do not know what the sitution is in mid week ,probably is total mess.
energyecon wrote:
Not there yet. But I'm really, really looking forward to it.
In the first Great Depression food rotted in the fields as people went hungry in the cities and truckers were idle lacking suppliers or customers at both ends.
In the second Great Depression houses rotted in the fields as people went homeless in the cities and realtors were idle lacking supply or customers at both ends.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Thank goodness we're recovering, though.
Got meetings for a while, L8R all.
some investor guy wrote:
Sounds like a federal bailout plan. Give cities or states 20K for every vacant house listing under 5K. 5K to buy the property, the rest to knock it down to create vast new unincorporated (disincorporated?) areas and siphon off some piles of cash to kick public pension problems down the road...
Anything expected out of the Fed today?
I could use a good chuckle at Ben Bernmoney's expense.
energyecon wrote:
Why did Piglet look in the toilet?
We must keep two year olds apart, my almost two year old doesn't need anymore ideas. He turned the water hose on in the back yard a few days ago while I was answering the phone. In less than a minute he created mud and managed to distribute it all over himself. Never had this problem with my eldest. He is a clean freak, hell he takes forever to eat his dinner so he doesn't drop any crumbs...but the youngest is more in the vein of Pigpen. Wonderful war of order vs chaos in my household right now with me trying to keep the balance.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
I'm already laughing and we haven't got to the punchline yet - OK, why?
A surprising amount of
in the LATimes business section today:
Hope for a strong economic rebound is fading -- latimes.com
September's weak gain in home prices could be ominous -- latimes.com
Fed sees high jobless rate for years to come -- latimes.com
Americans gloomy on economy heading into holidays -- latimes.com
Earnings rise in U.S. banking industry, but bad assets could push them back down -- latimes.com
noob goldberg wrote:
Bugs go good with squirrel.
On the surface, many of the reports today have some
characteristics. However, I always remember, lurking behind the walls is our national debt, like termites silently eating away at the 2 x 4's. The soft, easy to chew wood that is our financial foundation 
okay why did piglet look in the toilet?
And those essential elements of personality are there from day 1, I am convinced...the ability to express them and how they are manifested will be influenced by environment and upbringing, but the major element of the essential "who" comes that way from the womb...
Has anyone mentioned the durables yet?
Looks like the drop in trucking matches a 'surprise' drop in durables.
New orders m/m -0.6% vs prior 1.0% and expected 0.5%
Ex transport m/m -1.3% vs prior 0.9%
Year / year showing a reduced cliff diving over 2008, but still well down. As I posted last night, isn't this an important factor in the sales tax declines?
He wanted to see Pooh.
I'm here all week folks, make sure to tip my mother and try the milk and cookies.
And the only bulldozing I have seen is tearing down old wrecks to build a new McMansion on the property. - SL
You know, all the time I've been involved in construction, a certain percentage of the work is demolition. That goes for everyone else I know, too. And the price of a "demo" load at the landfill has been rising pretty steadily for years. In the past, there was a lot of remodeling demo, and some replacement/infill on existing lots. As well as lots of urban renewal in the cities. But the "new demo" work should be in areas with high foreclosures, areas like Florida with lots of mold and mildew. I wonder if HUD keeps those numbers. Or maybe BIA?
Can we get $3.oo+ national avg on gasoline going into Xmas, to really get the consumer into the spending mood ? Maybe, if Thanksgiving miles driven gets goosed enough.
We're far beyond that, tncubsfan.
The termites are eating their way through the sheetrock
on the third floor.
(No lie, we made an offer on such a house a long time ago.) They swarmed just in the nick of time for us to bail on that disaster.
noob goldberg wrote:
My two year old Lab does that kind of thing. We're ok with it.
noob goldberg wrote:
Rule for kids to remember: Blowing snot bubbles out your nose doesn't garner the attention you expect but it will go into the prom date portfolio.
sm_landlord wrote:
Even in this case, there genuinely is a new home built, but there is a smaller one being taken down. The square footage goes up, but the number of housing units doesn't.
Damn......25-40% re-default rates at Citi............and I bet it's the same everywhere......
Citi Mortgage Reveals What Treasury Won't - CNBC
Jonathan wrote:
"Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.4 percent." From here (PDF). If you dig deep enough, a green shoot can be found. Why arntcha tryin harder?
Some pregnant version of Maria just told me to buy
and building materials ... a sign the top is on the horizon?
WHOA, as pessimistic as I am, that number stuns me.
Has anyone correlated Inventory with the Suicide Index? Is there a LastCase/Chiller index?
I propose C4E -- Cash 4 Economies....
Have a dangerously unstable and unsustainable economy based on getting suckers to sell worthless asset claims to each other and raking transaction fees off the top? Turn in your broken clunker economy, and we'll destroy the inefficient FIRE engine so it can't be used again. You can exchange it for a shiny new command-and-control financial system, a libertarian utopia or even try an experimental decentralized electronic-cash model.
The talking heads are telling me to ignore the unemployment rate because consumer confidence is rising among the remaining employed
You guys are right, CNBC is funnier than The Onion.
Citi Calls for More Mortgage-Principal Forgiveness - WSJ.com
As the main problem of the mortgage industry changes from house-price depreciation to unemployment, the mortgage market needs more programs "where there is principal reduction for borrowers with negative equity" in their home, "as opposed to just a loan restructure," Mr. Das said.
"The solution" of the mortgage crisis "has to move into the next gear," he said. The government's Home Affordability Mortgage Program, or HAMP, has "not quite addressed the issue of unemployment."
Uhh. nothing prevents C from performing principal reductions on loans that it owns.
Economics and Politics - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
** Why am I thinking about this historical episode?**
I think he is talking about Timmy resisting the Wall street reform. You think?
*> November 25, 2009, 8:58 am
*
so PK is no friend of The Brow?
Ioocoodanode...
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Bubblisimo Gerkinov (profile) wrote on Wed, 11/25/2009 - 11:09 am
The talking heads are telling me to ignore the unemployment rate because consumer confidence is rising among the remaining employed
The remaining employed are growing increasingly confident of at least one thing: they may be next!
I think you're on to something. Better be careful though, with ideas like that you might get recruited.
Yeah, it is
nonsense!
I do have more fun and enjoyment now when I listen to the dribble on CNBC. I have the mindset that they are cheerleaders for the
, helping to inflate and pump the market to the average schmoe. Keeping this in mind and framing my viewing as such, it makes CNBC more entertaining and often very funny! 
ooh, that leads into Marc Faber's latest which was just nasty. He is of course a notorious bear but his vision led him down the path of a war to divert us from an imploded economy. When he was asked with whom...he said an enemy will be materialized. jeebus. I fear he maybe right as debt forgiveness of nations doesn't come easily particularly when we are talking former superpowers with super-duper-extra-delux high debt. Yup its my latest
Here's some stuff by the Commerce Department on housing starts versus "scrappage" of homes. Their term, not mine:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/98xx/doc9885/11-17-HousingStarts.pdf
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/25/2009 - 11:14 am
I think you're on to something. Better be careful though, with ideas like that you might get recruited.
Thanks, but I lack the pedigree and experience; more importantly, I can't grow a beard to save my life.
Faber has a certain way about him, Euroasian chuckling as the Roaming Empire is crumbling...
Thanks, but I lack the pedigree and experience; more importantly, I can't grow a beard to save my life.
Could you muster a Bolton shaving brush?
A couple of things.
One, today's october numbers were achieved with ~ peak fiscal stimulus impact (and the threat of house credit expiring). As the stimulus wanes next year let us see how well these numbers hold up - especially after a lot of small businesses fold following xmas.
Two, as a retailer let me say that traffic does not equal sales. Are people spending as much? Purchasing only discounted items? Only the retailer can tell you how much is in the register and margins achieved. Sales tax revenue continues to remain well off so I'm not buying into any real resurgence of spending.
didnt any of these people get the insurance that pays payments if you are out of work,etc etc
used to be pushing it, so.........?
The government's Home Affordability Mortgage Program, or HAMP, has "not quite addressed the issue of unemployment."
however the:
Home Easier Money Program or HEMP is doing great!
Oxtail-
Last tuesday..something changed...I don't know what but the whole dollar down, market up thing just stopped doing what we all expected it to do. Conversely the dollar up market down didn't work the next day.
I have an inkling that the Fed is pushing and pulling on swap lines in a massive way but, of course, there is no way to confirm it.
Ciao
MS
basel too
who is the brow? think i know but ....
good question gabyjan:...QUACK said the DUCK.
US Census Bureau publishes preliminary estimates... A necessary part of the process of issuing these early data involves the issuance of subsequent revisions....
The "Range" shows the largest decrease (or smallest increase if no months revised down) and largest increase (or smallest decrease if no months revised up) over the 12 months. The "Average" is the arithmetic mean of all 12 months. Ideally, this would be zero if the positive and negative revisions equaled each other. The "Absolute Average" is the arithmetic mean of the absolute value of the revision. This indicates the average size of revision without regard to sign.
source:
New Residential Sales - Analysis of Revisions
Percent changes between estimates - May 2008 - April 2009
http://www.census.gov/const/www/revisionanalysis_sales.pdf
That the barbarous went up largely upon the dollar falling, and then held as the dollar was propped up again, was a telltale sign...
Basel Too wrote:
Except of course that it would make their various capital ratios go poof. What they really mean is they want the Govt to pay for principal reductions.
scone
thanks for link
some investor guy wrote:
OT sorry but I want an update from Gabyjan: Price of a gal of milk, price of a gal of gas. Thanks.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_iPXpgDYx1ws/SXdvBQwiZ1I/AAAAAAAAA44/WJRv2gjI5XY/s400/Timothy+Geithner.jpg
Anonymous Bosch (profile) wrote on Wed, 11/25/2009 - 11:19 am
Thanks, but I lack the pedigree and experience; more importantly, I can't grow a beard to save my life.
Could you muster a Bolton shaving brush?
Muster, yes. Master, no. Mustard, good on the roast beef.
"WASHINGTON -- A lot more Americans are feeling stressed out by debt this holiday season, raising the glum likelihood that they'll behave like Scrooge rather than Santa.
Fully 93 percent say they'll spend less or about the same as last year, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. Half of all those polled say they're suffering at least some debt-related stress, and 22 percent say they're feeling it greatly or quite a bit. That second figure is up from 17 percent just last spring, despite all the talk about economic recovery.
Most people -- 80 percent -- say they'll use mostly cash to pay for their holiday shopping."
Debt worries will crimp holiday buying, poll says | Richmond Times-Dispatch
some investor guy wrote:
Which means they want future generations of taxpayers to pay for them. Unless of couse we can find some sucker willing to buy Treasuries prior to repudiating the debt. Hu knows - maybe we will end up on the right side of that trade.
scone,
thanks for the link
Caption: "And this is the dividend the American taxpayers can expect from the hugely successful TARP program."
If GE is looking to sell its broadcasting units and that Comcast thing doesn't work out, how about selling CNBC to Viacom, who could make it a subsidiary of Comedy Central?
Cramer and Jon Stewart could be on each others' shows regularly.
Oh My God! He's an elf!
OK, maybe not an elf. What are the evil ones called again?
We are already in multiple wars, especially the "war on Terror".
Anonymous -- Drow. Add one letter and we have another key word.
nanoo
milk 3.27 saved .45
gas here now today
2.43.9 at 2 out 3 stations i get gas from
edited for update all stations selling @$2.43.9
Rob Dawg wrote:
I was thinking something along the lines of "Then he grabbed me by my collar and I soiled my Brooks Brothers ..."
Drow is good, I was thinking more classical...like Pan.
edit: Resistance, are you playing DragonAge? Birthday present to myself, and I am pleasantly surprised. Didn't think I could run it yet, in the midst of upgrading, but it actually runs pretty good on my slightly out of date computer.
some investor guy wrote:
The last time Cramer was on Jon Stewart should be preserved in film institutes vaults as classics to never be lost.
black dog wrote:
And I'd bet the other 20% are like me and aggressively use credit cards but never carry a balance.
Should get a nice 100 point move today as the market steps up gradually.
You're welcome!
It seems to me the inventory of homes on the market is lower than it seems, in a way. At the low end of foreclosures, you've got trashed out disgusting places that no one wants to buy because they are uninhabitable, and need too much money to make them habitable. At the other end, you've got owners in denial about the value of their homes, pricing them far beyond any possibility of getting a sale. So the inventory of viable, habitable, realistically priced homes is a subset of what's actually out there.
And there's likely a "dribble" of foreclosed, nasty homes coming on the market for years to come, driving up the apparent inventory, but not necessarily turning over, and getting worse and worse, meaning less habitable, over time. At some point, that stuff gets so bad, it has to be bulldozed.
More 'good' news out of virginia.
On Dec. 18, Kaine will present a budget to the General Assembly's Joint Money Committee. The budget he is crafting includes revised spending for the remainder of fiscal 2010, which ends June 30, in addition to spending proposals for fiscal 2011 and fiscal 2012.
Last week, revised revenue forecasts presented to lawmakers indicated up to an additional $300 million shortfall in the $77 billion budget for fiscal 2010.
Lawmakers also were told last week that revenue could fall roughly $619 million in the next two-year budget cycle, while spending needs could increase another $2.9 billion, primarily because of increased costs of the Medicaid health-insurance program that serves poor and disabled Virginians.
Kaine, who has cut more than $6 billion from the budget since March 2007, said yesterday that no function of government will be spared, including Medicaid, public education and higher education.
"You're going to see adjustments to virtually everything in state government in this budget," Kaine said. " . . . People are going to see an awful lot in this budget they don't like."
Kaine doesn't say no to possibility of a tax increase | Richmond Times-Dispatch
Cramer and Jon Stewart could be on each others' shows regularly.
I could be tempted to watch that if Stewart played Rocky and Cramer played a heavy bag.
Thanks, Gabyjan: seems that without your 0.45 savings it would be about where my local brand is currently (no such luck with saving any)...national brands are more expensive, Unleaded gas...2.70ish. fluctuates almost up to 2.80 one week ago or so. But its on taxation. I like to do this from time to time for a on the street view of whats going on where in the nation since we are so far removed geographically.
Hairy Feet on the Street Report:
I just got back from checking out a foreclosure in a relatively nice part of town here in Columbia, South Carolina.
What a s*ithole!
Rotting fascia board, missing shingles, missing switch covers (who takes these?), etc.
Do the bums or kids have to piss in every single one?
And what is up with all these ripped up porno mags?
Now back to your regularly scheduled
!
ab
trolls?
no not trolls,goblins as in bankers of harry potter
Someone just bought a couple of tolas
.
Ah man, not the trolls!
RUN!!!
homegnome, where in Cola was it?
That would sell big in a PPV market.
Lake Murray/ Irmo area, Basel.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
As opposed to Stewart's Rocky to Cramer's Bullwinkle?
RE: Cramer
Is anyone really proud of the fact that they get investment advice from the guy on the TeeeeeVeeeee?
I don't think so.
Bob, before the extension, people had to close before Dec 1st. And it was too late to buy most new homes in Oct (unless it was finished inventory). I'd guess these numbers weren't impacted by the tax credit - most of that is going to existing home sales.
best wishes
Stewart's Rocky to Cramer's Horror Show?
Hairy Feet on the Street Report:
I just got back from checking out a foreclosure in a relatively nice part of town here in Columbia, South Carolina.
What a s*ithole!
Rotting fascia board, missing shingles, missing switch covers (who takes these?), etc.
Do the bums or kids have to piss in every single one?
And what is up with all these ripped up porno mags?
Now back to your regularly scheduled !
Are you talking about a foreclosure or what to me sounds like an earily accurate description of our economy
As opposed to Stewart's Rocky to Cramer's Bullwinkle?
SACRILEGE! You leave R&B alone!
That goes for Mr.Peabody and his pet boy Sherman too!
HomeGnome wrote:
It's either him or Trapper John.
It there a commonly used historic stock (say s&p) price to sales (instead of earning) chart?
I would rather see a triple feature UFC match:
Greenspan vs. Bernanke
Cheney vs. Biden
Bush vs. Obama
Anything goes and the winner gets to go on to the next level against an angry mob.
maybe the sales are from "bulk" buyers
Is anyone really proud of the fact that they get investment advice from the guy on the TeeeeeVeeeee?
He's quite popular in banking circles in Georgia.
ab
i like fractured fairy tales too
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/25/2009 - 11:32 am
edit: Resistance, are you playing DragonAge? Birthday present to myself, and I am pleasantly surprised. Didn't think I could run it yet, in the midst of upgrading, but it actually runs pretty good on my slightly out of date computer.
No, I may have to check it out though. I'm not that much of a gamer anymore (and was never hardcore at it) but do appreciate the aesthetics of design and a good storyline.
I am certain that he is.
double post
ab
so thats where they been getting advice from should have asked a fifth grader
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Sorry ... I crossed a line.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Bond insurers were mixed during morning action Wednesday after Financial Guaranty Insurance Company, a leading company in the industry, was ordered by regulators to suspend all claim payments.
FGIC said the New York Insurance Department told it to immediately suspend paying any and all claims after the bond insurer reported a statutory policyholder deficit of more than $865 million for the third quarter.
Bond insurers mixed; FGIC suspends claim payments - MarketWatch
Glod - $1185!!
This has a very good story. Closest to Torment I have played. Gameplay is great, story is better. Wasn't expecting it to be honest. Didn't think they could make games like this anymore. Alignment is subtle. Conversation choices and moral decisions... wife and I are having a lot of fun with it after we get the kidos to bed. I am not much of a gamer anymore either, but decided to give this one a try and was glad I did.
We forgave debts owed by a few South American nations in the '70s.
Time for Hu to repay favors, as a good global neighbor, so we can just move forward ??
ab long term memory is no problem, its the short term stuff,whatever, oh what is that word i want oh well maybe i think of it in a couple of years
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/25/2009 - 11:47 am
Alignment is subtle. Conversation choices and moral decisions...
Moral decisions? How quaint. j/k... Sounds worth looking at.
homeGnome
,
all the way
thanks for that, I was wondering about it and tempted, so maybe thats my diversion over the holidays. Does it take hours of figuring out the controls and is it a fps type? PC game? Nevermind, I'll get on the site and see.
We haven't got very far yet, but the succubus defending her ensorcellment of a templar...as providing a service and meeting the needs of the needy was great.
could take lessons. It was great.
as far as a Gov't plan to knock down derelect housing, I read in the ARRA plan somewhere that $6B had been allocated for just that purpose.
nanoo
you re welcome.
forgot to add we pay 3% on food and 7% on non food
No, mouse driven with clickable toolbars. Very easy to play. It is a pc game. Don't let the blood theme throw you off, it isn't there for gore alone, central to plot. Nice little button in the settings to turn persistent gore off too. Don't need my games to be quite that realistic.
Very similar in gameplay feel to Baulder's Gate. Story feel is Torment though.
Ever wonder if the "Chinese Drywall" problem was done on purpose?
Thank you Vonbeck, I like games but haven't been much of one in recent years. So for those of us who have lives that can't mean 50/hrs per week figuring out spell casting, hacks, etc. its refreshing to find one that accommodates with a good story line.
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Connecticut plans to join Ohio in suing credit-rating companies for “negligent, reckless and incompetent work” in grading debt purchased by state pension funds, according to Attorney General Richard Blumenthal.
Morningstar Offers Company Credit Ratings on Web Site (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
HomeGnome wrote:
When you walk into a house, what 'test' does one perform to see if Chin. Dry is installed?
No very commonly used apparently: http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000%5C037f.pdf
Bye, got to get back to moving stuff. So far, the POD system has worked out very well, and much cheaper than the alternatives.
"Sufficiently advanced malice may be indistinguishable from incompetence."
Apologies to Arthur C Clarke.
Chinese Drywall is a symptom of Cowboy Capitalism run rampant. Holding my breath for some executions.
l8ters y'all going to watch my episodes
JimPortlandOR wrote:
The texturing is in Chinese instead of brail.
I'm out too, stuff to do, thanks everyone.
Jonathan wrote:
I am so stealing that.
Oooof! Not holding my breath for executions.
Ramentime. Then a thorough eyelid inspection.
TTYL.
Obama to Offer Firm Pledge on Emissions Cuts in Copenhagen
By JOHN M. BRODER and JEFF ZELENY 58 minutes ago
President Obama will offer to reduce greenhouse gas emissions “in the range of 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020,” the White House said.
Buffett's Little Choo Choo Who Could...
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I'm contemplating Latinos applying Chinese characters in the texturing mud.... It doesn't process.
Jonathan wrote:
HA! That's probably an absolute truth! It sure fits large corporation's management style. As any organization gets larger the management has to become closer to "the average" and the only way to compensate is by hiding the incompetence (averageness) with "advanced" management techniques.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Yep ... would be perfect on a coffee cup.
Citi Mortgage Reveals What Treasury Won't - CNBC
Hey CR did you see this
Stupidity Street
I saw with open eyes
Singing birds sweet
Sold in the shops
For the people to eat,
Sold in the shops of
Stupidity Street.
I saw in vision
The worm in the wheat,
And in the shops nothing
For people to eat;
Nothing for sale in
Stupidity Street.
-- Ralph Hodgson
Gold's new high is probably a direct response to the institutional traders and commercials who were short, now covering on the last day of December's Gold Future. So, what we're witnessing is a short squeeze.
I will short it shortly, again, in my trading account, again for small money. This is the squeeze of all squeezes.
U.S. Bank to sell 3 Texas banks - Minneapolis / St. Paul Business Journal:
Everyone wanted a piece of em
Slumdog wrote:
Is this a Latino, Chinese, or brail short squeeze?
Slumdog wrote:
It's been interesting to watch on this site, where it's priced for delivery in Canadian dollars. I'd see a huge spike in the USD price, like $15/oz or so, but then I'd wander over to Scotia Mocatta and see that it only influenced delivery prices by a few dollars. The appreciation in the Canadian currency really made its presence known the past few days.
Maybe, but of the dollar.
is just along for the ride...
Slumdog wrote:
As Sponge Bob would say: "Good luck with that."
Think about how a squeeze operates. The shorts are trapped. It's the final day. When will they step up for their cup of Hemlock? I'm thinking in the last 45 minutes of the trading day. If this puppy gets to 1194 today, that's my sell stop entry point. One more squeeze for the gipper, please. Or if not, at the close. Again, 1/3 of my trading position. I know this is a strong, young bull market. At some point, there's money on the short side to be made. What I'm doing is offsetting permanent long positions, so the loss is foregoing profit. Sinclair thinks this is nuts to do. I have this hair...
Jimmy never loses money in his trading account when he shorts for small change.
Spreads on Dubai Sovereign CDS Leap - WSJ.com
Not exactly green shooty.
Slumdog wrote:
Who is Sinclair?
At the current rate of economic genius, Obama should be able to deliver on his pledge to cut carbon emissions by 17% by 2011. Economic collapse will certainly take care of those pesky emissions.
Hey, since we're going to spend a few billion to buy a bunch of JSF fighter jets off of you guys, would you mind sharing the maintenance codes with us?
Kthxbai.
Isn't it frightening as a holder of US fiat valued assets to watch such stupendous losses occur?
Many have lost 3% of their store of value in the past 90 days. At that rate, they're eating a 12% loss per year. That's a nice tithing to the government to help things out, ain't it?
In fact, it's a destruction of buying power. The punishment is being handed out. All USD-marked holders are getting shafted, but they can't believe there can be any other reserve "currency". How about protecting one's store of value? Oh, caring about self is some type of slippery slope down the moral turpitude rathole? No worries! The rathole is jammed solid with banksters, greedy RE (homebuyers) gamblers, and the multitudes who benefited and supported that behavior. Rathole is filled. To thine own self be true.
Jimmy has the Midas touch in reverse, but it's important that he shares all he knows.
Sinclair is Welcome To Jim Sinclair’s MineSet Jim Sinclair.
noob, don't get me started on the JSF. We probably don't know the codes, sad truth. Biggest surprise for contractors around the world....JSF getting approved and built. Was supposed to be just another hole to pour money into without any practical results.
noob goldberg wrote:
We don't share macho military secret decoder ring codes with socialists counties that don't love freedom and democracy as much as we do.
(However, I'm sure they'll be posted on the gaming hacker sites by the time the planes are delivered)
Did anyone see this on reuters?
'BOSTON (Reuters) - Jerry Jordan, one of the top-performing U.S. growth fund managers over the past three years, says he's sold all his holdings of Apple (AAPL.O) and Google (GOOG.O) because their stock prices had gotten too expensive.'
as usual, I dumped 4 months too early.
Slumdog wrote:
There's one more good bounce left in old glory, and I'm pretty sure someone willing to short the market in USD will make a double killing. Take those profits and plow them into
when it's valued at $800, and wait for whatever comes next.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
The off-gassing turns copper pipes and wiring black.
An i.e.d. might cost $50 and do amazing collateral damage, none of which can by stopped by 10 squadrons of JSF.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
The saddest thing is that we in Canada never expected you to in the first place.
The nerve of those Brits, though, expecting to have full control over their own fighters.
Not even the Brits are getting the JSF codes.
I bet the Chinese have the torrent though...
Computer Spies Breach Fighter-Jet Project - WSJ.com
noob goldberg wrote:
The best part is we get to turn off the services, selectively, if you don't subscribe to the "Glod Service Maintenance" plan every year. Good luck trying to put down the landing gear in 2012.
Gold is at $1185.
How many take profit at $1200.?
Should be interesting to watch.
Bandits @ $12:00 High
Jonathan wrote:
Okay, I can understand someone sneaking a USB stick into building, or even hacking in and grabbing a gig or two of data before alarm bells started going off, but several terabytes? Good lord that's some serious incompetence in the IT department.
4th Generation Warfare
noob goldberg wrote:
Only an authorized US contracted service co. will have those... We have an economy to inflate...
HomeGnome wrote:
5th generation will be a baseball bat with a nail in the end.
maybe they let them siphon off several terabytes of bad data....
noob goldberg wrote:
What was the "reasoning" for the purchase, btw?
Timmy looks like he's coming apart at the seams.
Of course, he can see the road ahead better than we can.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
He sounds like he was having a real bad day.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
You mean Canada's JSF purchase? I'm not certain, but it probably has to do with the fact that our current tiny fleet of CF-18's is aging rapidly, to the point we can't even keep up with our NATO commitments.
Timbabwe is well into overtime, as far as his alloted 15 minutes are concerned...
@noob 1.26pm
Don't know if you are right or not - but those are MY sentiments to a T.
Or a portable disk. (It's really not that much bigger than a USB when put into a briefcase.)
Well, not the final hurdle. The squid still has until 12/31 to sell tax-exempt revenue bonds for this atrocity.
Welcome to Amerika. Forcibly taking private property to build the most expensive sports arena in history for the worst team in professional sports.
"If construction begins in the coming weeks as expected, Atlantic Yards will stand out in a city where 530 construction projects are stalled, sitting lifeless and without adequate financing in virtually every neighborhood.
Atlantic Yards would transform a busy intersection of two thoroughfares dominated by a railroad cut where Long Island Rail Road trains are cleaned between rush periods. The billion-dollar arena would be the most expensive in the country and home to Brooklyn’s first major sports team since the Dodgers left after the 1957 baseball season. Plans also call for 16 high-rise towers on nearby blocks, mostly residential buildings with as many as 6,430 apartments."
Nets: 0-13.
I used to cheer for the Nets. But like a lot of other New Yorkers, now I'm cheering against Ratner, the Nets and the squid. Great way to build a fan base.
Since anything except the topic is being discussed...
The EIA nat gas weekly inventory is out with a tiny uptick. This is the third week of November however so that is unseasonable in the extreme. And in the ever rational markets this news does what? Yup, moonshot. Up 30¢ over $5. Insane. I am so glad I have gone to all sidelines in meatspace because the virtual trading I've done this year would have been disastrous.
Here's one you'll like. Explains why a lot of people won't be shopping too hard this Xmas.
ABOUT NEW YORK; These Rates Would Shock A Loan Shark - NY Times
How does it feel New Yorkers, to know that the financial nucleus for your great city was a sham?
rich wrote:
But, this will SURELY make them a contenda, I'm sure of it. Dude, ya gotta spend money to win. That's how it is now.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
They are metastatic.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I was going to ask about this when I saw natgas up to 4.85 this morning. The last I had looked (I've been busy elsewhere over the past week) it was around 4.25, so I was wondering if a larger than normal drawdown had happened in the last report. And to think supply has gone up!
So this is just a serious squeeze? Or reflective of excess liquidity? Or something else? Who knows...
EDIT: we covered new home sales for a while earlier in the thread. Once we get over 100 posts it becomes open season on thread topics, it appears.
I see where Dobbs is doing an about-face on his career of Latino-bashing, trying to set himself up for some sort of political run. Politics in action. Watta dope.
Dobbs Reaches Out to Latinos, With Politics in Mind - WSJ.com
Didn't his alter-ego Fred C. Dobbs have some troubles with Latinos also?
Excuse me if this has been posted before - map of the counties of the US and a timeline for UE. Kinda cool.
multimediafinal
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Ask that question once the reality of massive budget deficits are confronted and the state begins layoff's and funding cuts. Until then as long as that sham produces bonuses of which a decent chunk goes right to Albany its whistling past the graveyard around here.
More from that story:
"In the next few days, the developer is also hoping that the rating agencies will give his bonds an investment-grade rating and a lower interest rate. On Tuesday, a state-sponsored local development corporation authorized the sale of a combination of tax-exempt and taxable bonds.
“We anticipate having the ratings necessary to successfully market this transaction and fund the project by Tuesday,” said Greg Carey, a managing director of Goldman Sachs."
The unmitigated gall...anyone who buys these bonds is making a serious mistake.
CR sighting again on Business Insider today. I wonder what Blodget's handle is here?
House Prices Are Still Too High
JD - I wonder if this is news to them. I never believed in the economic miracle after I got an education, and had my doubts long before that. Finance floats an entire layer of privileged society on top of a sustainable base it gradually destroys, so eventually it is the lone island in an ocean of waste.
black dog wrote:
I didn't see it before. Nice link.
"Citi Calls for More Mortgage-Principal Forgiveness"
It's been given principle forgiveness, now it wants principal forgiveness. So long as the taxpayers to the forgiving.
I'm king of the thread killers today
Toyota Said to Plan Moving Some Jobs From California (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Nissan left California a few years ago.
in re Henry Blodget:
("KID, HAVE YOU REHABILITATED YOURSELF?")
I went over to the sargent, said, "Sargeant, you got a lot a damn gall to
ask me if I've rehabilitated myself, I mean, I mean, I mean that just, I'm
sittin' here on the bench, I mean I'm sittin here on the Group W bench
'cause you want to know if I'm moral enough join the army, burn women,
kids, houses and villages after bein' a litterbug." He looked at me and
said, "Kid, we don't like your kind, and we're gonna send you fingerprints
off to Washington."
LYRICS - Alice's Restaurant
barfly wrote:
There's more to this story than meets the eye:
US Deports Lou Dobbs
Yalt wrote:
HA!! Too funny.