WASHINGTON (AP) -The Federal Reserve says the unfolding recovery will probably be gradual, as modest growth keeps the nation's unemployment rate elevated over the next several years.
Most Fed policymakers say it could take "five or six years" for the economy and the labor market to get back on a path of full health.
5 or 6 years?
That's like telling a woman ur dating that you plan to marry her - in 5 or 6 years.
Troubled finance group Hanover is accusing Hell Pizza of positioning a mobile billboard mocking Mark Hotchin outside his six-year-old daughter's school.
Hell put the face of Mr Hotchin, Hanover's co-founder, on a billboard next to the word Greed, the name of one of its pizzas. This week it drove the billboard around Auckland and parked it outside the $30 million home that Mr Hotchin is having built.
Members noted the possibility that some negative side effects might result from the maintenance of very low short-term interest rates for an extended period, including the possibility that such a policy stance could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets or an unanchoring of inflation expectations. While members currently saw the likelihood of such effects as relatively low, they would remain alert to these risks.
Most Fed policymakers say it could take "five or six years" for the economy and the labor market to get back on a path of full health.
5 or 6 years?
That's like telling a woman ur dating that you plan to marry her - in 5 or 6 years.
That's optimistic compared to Mish; count your blessings
....the '29 crash and subsequent unemployment rate didn't drop down to a "mere" 10% until 1941 - when we finally entered WWII. I wonder how much longer it would have taken to get UE down to less than 10% had the War NOT arrived?
Posted Nov 24, 2009 09:00am EST by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Banking
Related: skf, xlf, bac, c, wfc, axp, WU
Not happy with your bank? The feeling is likely mutual.
Don't be surprised if your bank soon decides they don't want your business anymore, says Rochdale Securities bank analyst Dick Bove.
Why?
Bank regulators and Congress are looking at ways at making the system more safe and sound in order to avoid another meltdown. What on the surface seems like a wise and prudent decision, however may have unintended consequences, most notably higher fees for bounced checks, credit card balances and the like.
Apparently, with fed funds so low, they no longer need us. Makes you wonder if we really need them-
The Federal Reserve says the unfolding recovery will probably be gradual, as modest growth keeps the nation's unemployment rate elevated over the next several years.
During the early 30s we began to see massive double digit GDP growth. It seems to me hard to make the argument now that this was due to government spending because if that were the case we should be seeing strong growth now.
It's important to ask the question:
Why did we see explosive growth 4 years after the onset of the Great Depression but only expect "modest growth" for the next several years even though this downturn started in 2007?
Why did we see explosive growth 4 years after the onset of the Great Depression but only expect "modest growth" for the next several years even though this downturn started in 2007?
Anyone want a job busting the heads of those student radicals at UC? We'll take the lowest bidder. Don't worry, if you shoot a student we can't afford to try and imprison you anyway. (Although a disgruntled deputy may shoot you). In fact, why doesn't everyone just start using their firearms, free market style?
Still they are projecting unemployment above 7% in 2012.
Talk about being math impaired. Run the numbers. -IF- we start generating 440,000 new jobs every month from now until 2012 we'll barely get to 7%. Every month of no jobs creation adds 20,000 to that necessity. Two more months of 250k losses and we start the new year with a need for 100,000 more per month on top of that 440,000.
We cannot get back to 7% unemployment by 2012 and the Fed knows it but doesn't want to "scare" anyone.
The duration of a 30 year mortgage at a 5% rate is roughly 11 (not years, duration has no unit!). Holding the payment steady, a 1% move in mortgage rate implies an 11% move in the size of the mortgage. Even at 10% mortgage rate, the number holds reasonably true.
So a 100k mortgage at 5% will require the same payment as an 89k mortgage at 6%.
I pointed out the other day that unemployment tax increases are now really hitting businesses.
So money that could otherwise go to new hires must instead be sent to the state for redistribution to the unemployed.
This is not encouraging new job creation - in fact it could result in a further increase in job loss.
Run the numbers. -IF- we start generating 440,000 new jobs every month from now until 2012 we'll barely get to 7%.
Or you could convince people to retire, or immigrate to another country, or they could become discouraged and leave the labor force. Or you could simply adjust the birth death model.
dawg, we can't expect the FOMC to be able to do math, can we?
We never should have shown them how to use VisiCalc.
"...unanchoring of inflation expectations. While members currently saw the likelihood of such effects as relatively low, they would remain alert to these risks. "
Here is a Fed Governor watching for the first signs of inflation.
The Fed's objectives are more like aspirational goals. And darnit, people like me and Lloyd and Jamie and Larry and Barrack and all our friends. So let's keep telling people what they want to hear instead of the truth.
Industry experts are skeptical of his [Apostopoulos'] ability to turn a profit at the site, let alone generate revenue to cover property taxes and maintenance. Only a handful of entertainers, such as U2 or the Rolling Stones, could fill such a large venue, and it could prove difficult to entice a professional sports startup or major artists to an aging facility in the suburbs with the new Ford Field in downtown Detroit.
Well, the Rolling Stones have sold out so much they can't sell out any more, and U2 doesn't seem so interested in turning a profit for the stadium owner: that's part of why they're popular. If you have a lot of slaves, they aren't going to pay much for tickets to the circus.
Far, far, far too much capacity as a result of 30 years worth of bubble policy. We just don't have the use for this much.
Debt saturation has been reached - when banks are parking ever larger sums with the Fed instead of lending.
Remember the scene from Monty Python where the fat man eats and eats. Eats and eats. For a while he periodically vomits to make some room. He eats more. And then he literally explodes. Blood and guts and undigested food everywhere.
This is correct, except I think TPTB know it too. In our Monty Python skit we're trying to postpone the vomiting event to sometime (anytime) in the future, just not right now. So, we're probably stuff that guy with antacid tablets.
Far, far, far too much capacity as a result of 30 years worth of bubble policy. We just don't have the use for this much
What we really need is for a developed, law-abiding economy to implode and send us a stream of refugees who have assets and will fill vacant housing. Extra points if they speak english already. Japan? UK? Ireland?
Far, far, far too much capacity as a result of 30 years worth of bubble policy. We just don't have the use for this much.
Unfortunately, a lot of that "capacity" isn't worth it's asking price, and as time goes on, it'll be worth less. That goes both for capital equipment and housing-
In our Monty Python skit we're trying to postpone the vomiting event to sometime (anytime) in the future, just not right now.
Often, vomiting is the best thing todo when you're feeling sick - as a natural defense against ingested toxins. Our collective economic body is so larded up right now on depreciating dollars and toxic assets, that even the threat of a lifestyle change: more veggies and exercise would lead to immediate panic and cardiac arrest.
Oh give Little Timmy a break already. He just is parroting his profs who fed this crap to him in expensive private school all the way through the Ivy Leagues. Greenspan over-intellectualized it all including cooking govt reporting numbers to meet an end rather than to serve the public. Timmy just isn't as verbose and doesn't have the same ability in using arcane/obtuse language sets of the Gods to confuse the followers. Greenspan took the Codex with him. We went from an agrarian country to indebted serfs in record time thanks to Harvard Business School elites and their practitioners shored up by hoards of MBAs who believe cooking books is for accounting, mark to market, not meal preparation.
Supermarkets are getting savvy to shoplifters, I saw a non-mechanical orange-colored nightstand cowboy with a bar code on it in the veggie aisle, the other day.
You'll always get a bonus if what you innovate turns out to have real value. You will have to suffer through deadbeats and their kids getting unearned vaccinations and processed cheese.
Why did we see explosive growth 4 years after the onset of the Great Depression but only expect "modest growth" for the next several years even though this downturn started in 2007?
ac,
That's the cost of preserving the value of faux wealth/fraudulently issued bank credit.
America -- the land of the free, the brave, the credit card millionaires. The land of instant gratification. The land of rob tomorrow to live high on the hog today. The land of gladly paying for today's Cheeseburger next Tuesday -- or at least promising you will. The land of .... wait for it ... mendacity. This is a cultural problem, folks.
Mixed martial arts is having a special fight Saturday evening. Angry Saver versus Ben Bernanke.
They're pretty evenly based. I give Angry Saver better odds if the fight stays on the feet. Bernanke is known to be dirty on the ropes and is especially dangerous on the ground with his ground and pound style.
Also Summers us the referee so another plus for Bernanke.
He says the food situation in Detroit is particularly depressing because the surrounding areas are chock full with some of the best eats around: Michigan grows some of the most varied crops in the nation, everything from apples and cantaloupes to peaches and watermelon.Windsor, just across the bridge, is the hydroponics capital of Canada.
Why did we see explosive growth 4 years after the onset of the Great Depression but only expect "modest growth" for the next several years even though this downturn started in 2007?
I have for months been wondering the same thing and this blog entry makes the most the most sense to me.
Not a contradiction per se, but the GDP growth of that period did not result in a commensurate reduction in unemployment. It was WWII that created full employment.
It took a demand event as substantial as WWII in order to absorb the enormous industrial capacity fed by the 1920's equity bubble. US GDP bottomed out in 1933, but total GDP did not surpass 1929 levels until 1941. The growth rates of the era were strong relative to the bottom from which they had come, but the absolute amount of GDP was still low compared to what it had been prior to the crash.
I would surmise that because the 1920's equity bubble had created so much overcapacity that there was little need during the 1930's to add to it. That excess capacity was necessarily accompanied by a lack of investment, which led to continued low employment, which slowed the growth of consumption. Additional consumption during the 1930's was still below that of 1929 levels, so it was easily absorbed by preexisting capacity; accordingly, employment and investment did not need to be increased to fulfill increasing demand.
Consequently, the economic growth of that period didn't create enough jobs to eliminate excess unemployment. The government programs of the 1930's weren't substantial enough to absorb the excess industrial capacity, either, so investment stagnated along with everything else.
The government programs of the 1930's may have made things more bearable, but they weren't large enough to break the overcapacity logjam. The lead up to WWII was significant enough to change that.
The military spending of 1941 was the beginning of the end. WWII was such an enormous undertaking that it easily absorbed all of that capacity, and generated enough new demand that employment could be created. But that was a unique event. Wars are usually bad for economies; WWII was an exception, and then only for a few nations, such as the US.
Cant have the populace believe that some people hate the feds....better to say he was looped and took out insurance to prosper off his own hanging in the middle of nowhere, naked with FED scrawled on his chest....
so he climbed that tree naked and tied the branch while his nads rubbed against bark....yeah right....
In fact on the Michigan agriculture thing, I thought that the short growing season is what lead to the northern parts of this nation to move to cottage industries like light and heavy manufacturing while the southern parts remained largely agrarian until mechanized farming drove the former field hands in search of other jobs to provide for themselves and their families. Maybe I got that all wrong.
Why do the mounties value the medicinal @ just Cdn $260 per plant up over in the Gulag Hockeypelago, whilst the law enforcement types here value them @ $2500 per plant?
Windsor, just across the bridge, is the hydroponics capital of Canada.
I assume you've never traveled across the river from Detroit to Windsor. Let me assure you hydroponics is hardly the attraction to the fair city of Windsor. Windsor is known only for the Windsor Ballet. It's quite something to behold.
Why did we see explosive growth 4 years after the onset of the Great Depression but only expect "modest growth" for the next several years even though this downturn started in 2007?
I have for months been wondering the same thing and this blog entry makes the most the most sense to me.
This is the best explanation for our American Lost Decade I've ever seen (HT ZH):
As Koo frames them, the key features of a balance sheet recession are the following:
* A balance sheet recession emerges after the bursting of a nationwide asset price bubble that leaves a large number of private-sector balance sheets with more liabilities than assets.
* In order to repair their balance sheets, private sector moves away from profit maximization to debt minimization.
* With the private sector de-leveraging, even at zero interest rates, newly generated savings and debt repayments enter the banking system but cannot leave the system due to the lack of borrowers.
* The sum of savings and debt repayments end up becoming the leakage to the income stream.
* The deflationary gap created by the above leakage will continue to push the economy toward a contractionary equilibrium until the private sector is too impoverished to save any money (=depression).
* In this type of recession, the economy will not enter self-sustaining growth until private sector balance sheets are repaired.
I was born and grew up in Georgia. I know peaches. I picked 'em in the orchards as a young teen. My wife was born and grew up in Michigan. She came south about 25 years ago. She still complains about the crappy produce she grew up with, and she did from when she first got here -- before stuff was shipped in from South America. So, sorry Michigan -- go back to building Chyslers and Camaros or what not.
I'm calling bullshit on the Michigan is for Produce thing. Sorry folks, that dog don't hunt.
Jeez. They grow stuff in Alaska. Lots of stuff grows in less than 2 months. Michigan is like Canada. They even have wine-grapes growing in Canada. It's not JUST Detroit on a frozen tundra.
I knew a guy who owned a Porsche. About 10 years ago he went for dinner at a friends in the Santa Cruz mountains. One of the dinner guests was a police man who patrols for speeders on that section of the mountain.
Upon seeing that my friend was driving a Porsche he mentioned that he would be staying for a while and that the only other guy patrolling that section of road was off that night. Just like Bernanke he did recommend my friend take care driving home (wink, wink, nudge, nudge)
Bearly, I grew up in Windsor. I don't remember any redeeming feature of that town. Too small for any big city features. Too large for any small town qualities. Wheee, what a blast of blah memories.
Jeez. They grow stuff in Alaska. Lots of stuff grows in less than 2 months.
Finland has amazing vegetation and flowers, lots of daylight and winter kills almost all the bugs. Shocking when you first see it as your mind does not expect it.
Oh Hackman: I was raised in the south. The peaches today don't even resemble what I remember. Big, so juicy/flavorful they were really messy with juice running down your arm. Now all those get shipped to Japan. You likely get some but the rest of us don't. I would kill for a really good peach.
The 2008 GAO report revealed that 60-80% of our fruits and vegetables are now imported. Apple farmers in Washington State either have to adopt industrialized methods or lose their orchards, some long standing, generations owned/operated and productive orchards are even razed. Its sick.
Heard about an unfortunate fellow from down under that crossed the border into the frozen tundra of the Gulag Hockeypelago without his ice skates, and within minutes his shoes were stuck solid to the ground, which is where they found him, come the spring thaw in late August...
Not saying they'll save anything. Just that ag doesn't have to be huge corporate ag. Local producers of ag products can be very productive. Michigan peaches were sold in farmer's markets in Evanston Ill in the 70's. I used to buy them. They were good, but only lasted a few weeks (if I recall).
Crashing CRE News Flash: Major resort development gets taken back by Wells:
-- No wonder they have been advertising so heavily these past few months.
Wells Fargo Takes Over Deed to Sea Island’s Frederica Community
By Peter Waldman and Laurence Viele Davidson
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Wells Fargo & Co. took the deed to Sea Island Co.’s 3,000-acre Frederica community in Georgia, adding to the list of developments caught in the commercial property crunch.
Under the accord, disclosed by Wells Fargo yesterday, Sea Island transferred the deed on Nov. 19 to the residential and golf complex at the north end of St. Simons Island, 320 miles southeast of Atlanta. The community has a 400-acre lake, a Tom Fazio-designed golf course favored by St. Simons resident Davis Love III, river frontage and 600 home sites.
"The agency's new enforcement approach was showcased in Los Angeles last month when American Apparel fired 1,800 immigrant employees — more than a quarter of its workforce — after an immigration audit.
And a janitorial company in Minnesota quietly fired 1,200 workers around the same time after an investigation found they were working there illegally."
This is what worries me now. Massive debt forgiveness of nations is difficult and what we face now. Can anyone provide me with any evidence that it happens outside of massive wars?
The peaches today don't even resemble what I remember
Yolo County CaLi has good peaches, just as you described. It has to be right from the farm tho. Store produce has to be picked for shipping and storage. But, if you go to some farmers markets in peach growing areas the peaches can be fantastic. Depends of the farmer too. So are good, some aren't.
Nothing wrong with some "excess" capacity if prices come down to where the marginal consumer can enjoy the excess, with a little help from his friends on occasion. Oh yeah, profits suffer. Bankers go without bonuses. The horror, the horror.
Very interesting observation. My belief is that you don't forgive to help the person being forgiven, you do it for yourself. I don't think many people, or any nations, really understand that.
Well, you can sneer at "money printing" all you want, but if we're over 10 percent U3 next year (it'll probably be above 11) and have millions of people who've been without jobs with a couple of years, things are going to start to get interesting. Keep it up much longer and the American Renewal Party (socialists) and the Freedom for All Party (Fascists with armbands) will be neck and neck for the presidency.
Massive debt forgiveness of nations is difficult and what we face now. Can anyone provide me with any evidence that it happens outside of massive wars?
We "lent" a lot of South American countries money which I think we "forgave" in the late seventies or early eighties to keep our banks afloat.
Every day is worse than the last one. Total disaster.
I think the full measure of his failure is that at first, he was everywhere. And now, in the public mind, he's faded into the background. Just another suit in a town full of suits. Promising more than he can do, and with less influence than one or two of the guys he was told to appoint to work for him.
hey bob, have things settled down at UC-SC? for some reason, it seemed that the UC administrators thought that they could ram 30% tuition increases without causing a nationwide stink.
Might as well saddle the nation with another unfunded entitlement, the most massive one ever!
There's no choice anymore. Besides, if the Banksters are getting 100+ B$ / year in bonuses we can fund socialist health-care for roughly the same cost per year. What difference does it make at this point. Everything is fake.
Promising more than he can do, and with less influence than one or two of the guys he was told to appoint to work for him.
Obama is good at winning rigged popularity contests. Just one more smart, amoral scumbag scheming to get re-elected. If you can't beat the man, be the man. Why would he really change the systems that have rewarded him so greatly?
Oh thats right, I do remember that. But it pales in comparison now and to whom we owe is utterly astounding, basically its the world, but Japan, China are the largest holders (I think).
Yes Hackman, better known as the creature in dark financial pools. Bad word play for the Creature of the Black Lagoon.
On 31 December, the UK will make a payment of about $83m (£45.5m) to the US and so discharge the last of its loans from World War II from its transatlantic ally.
It is hard from a modern viewpoint to appreciate the astronomical costs and economic damage caused by this conflict. In 1945, Britain badly needed money to pay for reconstruction and also to import food for a nation worn down after years of rationing.
"In a nutshell, everything we got from America in World War II was free," says economic historian Professor Mark Harrison, of Warwick University.
"The loan was really to help Britain through the consequences of post-war adjustment, rather than the war itself. This position was different from World War I, where money was lent for the war effort itself." ......
And while the UK dutifully pays off its World War II debts, those from World War I remain resolutely unpaid. And are by no means trifling. In 1934, Britain owed the US $4.4bn of World War I debt (about £866m at 1934 exchange rates). Adjusted by the Retail Price Index, a typical measure of inflation, £866m would equate to £40bn now, and if adjusted by the growth of GDP, to about £225bn.
Sadly, the most assertive and aggressive have been the banksters and not the politicians.
Interesting. It makes sense that the banksters would be the most assertive and aggressive as that's where the loot is. Regardless of what we think of politicians they aren't the wealthiest people of the society. They are just agents (whores) of the real power people.
hey bob, have things settled down at UC-SC? for some reason, it seemed that the UC administrators thought that they could ram 30% tuition increases without causing a nationwide stink.
Kid @UCLA) reports calm on the surface but discontent pervasive. One of the biggest complaints is that the MSM so completely abrogated their responsibility to report the events.
Reading the article it does make a great deal of sense. This however this comment at the end of the article is definitely prescient.
But the facts of the 1930s appear to be pretty clear – monetized increased federal government spending does result in increased real economic activity in the short run.
The economic data are likely to be abysmal through the first half of this year. The popular media will reinforce the gloom of the data. The same pundits who did not see this downturn coming will not see the recovery coming either. My advice to you is to keep your eye on the index of Leading Economic Indicators. If history is any guide, the LEI will signal a recovery well ahead of the pundits.
Giving this information check out the current conference board indicators. Is it just me or is there an appearance of some flattening of the curve recently? Will be interesting to see if it leads to the top end of a curve leading to that "W" experience.
One reason the spouse and I go to NZ every winter (here). NZ is like a repeat fruit season. There's a fruit area on the south island near a town named Cromwell that is the "fruit capital" of the country (and has good Pinot). It's too cold to grow CaLi or Georgia style peaches, but still - fresh peaches in the winter is worth the airfare.
Oh, I'm not familiar with that but that might be an interesting read, I'll perhaps go on a search for it later.
I get "Amish peaches" where I live now. Its just not right. But if we keep this up I'll go into a LONG WHINE over foods I miss badly. That's what I get for marrying a Yankee.
One of the biggest complaints is that the MSM so completely abrogated their responsibility to report the events.
Well, the youngsters are our only hope. Maybe they'll be the end of MSM. But, just to keep them honest: GET A JOB YOU HIPPIES, I DIDN'T GET FREE TUITION WHEN I WAS YOUR AGE, I PAYED FOR IT. AND GET A HAIRCUT!
"Leading Index – Underscores U.S. Economy Will Continue to Grow "
It's interesting, however, the 4 of 6 LEI that showed improvement were these: stock prices, interest rate spread, jobless claims, real money supply. Shouldn't these be treated like the CPI (excluding the things that we don't want to think about) measurement?
So Obama has promised to "finish the job" In Afghanistan. What job is that exactly? Spending our last dime to deny the terrorist a safe haven when we can't even secure Ft. Hood Texas?
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 11/24/2009 - 3:30 pm
Kid @UCLA) reports calm on the surface but discontent pervasive. One of the biggest complaints is that the MSM so completely abrogated their responsibility to report the events.
As if the MSM had any ethical responsibility or conscience beyond that prescribed by their handlers on behalf of their owners... we're lucky it even got coverage, and soon enough it will slip into the memory hole to make room for celebrity life event updates and exaggerated conclusions drawn from the latest findings from human sexuality studies and related behavioral research.
Apologies if this was posted previously. Looks like Buffet is going to feast on Capmark...and I gotta wonder if he might regret that one.
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Capmark Financial Group Inc., the bankrupt lender to office and apartment builders, agreed to sell its loan-servicing unit to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Leucadia National Corp., a lawyer for Capmark said.
The partnership between Berkshire and Leucadia, called Berkadia, won an auction for the servicing unit, beating out an affiliate of PNC Financial Services Group Inc., attorney Michael Kessler told the judge overseeing Capmark’s bankruptcy case during a hearing today in Wilmington, Delaware.
slip into the memory hole to make room for celebrity life event updates and exaggerated conclusions drawn the latest findings from human sexuality studies and related behavioral research.
human sexuality studies and related behavioral research
Which, in all honesty, is what really matters. The people worried about "the Fed", and "deficits", and "the future" are all insane. The person that dies with the most orgasms wins.
According to Chadwick Prater Homes' voluntary petition, it has assets of between $0 and $50,000, and liabilities of between $1 million and $10 million.
Thanks gabyjan: I saw atrocious numbers out of Atlanta recently at the Atlanta Fed site and I'm still upset over that stinking move by the FDIC not to release the results of the public auction of property on their books. Any chatter about that down there?
Spreadin' freedom buddy. Can't have enough freedom spread, now can we?
Oh, THAT kind of freedom. I think I saw a John Deer freedom spreader once in Visalia. I went to take a closer look and I stepped in some freedom . Then I had to throw my shoes away.
Weren't these developed as effective leading indicators of growth after an inventory recession? It is quite a leap to ascribe the same predictive powers in a balance sheet recession...
Yes and also of note October (0.4) was less than September. One month does not make a trend but the next release on Dec 17th might tell us a lot more. If it's less than 0.4 then watch out below.
Hack,
I'm just hearing stresses all over. Residential has been propped up, CRE is ready to implode. Rumors of companies that are debt laden from LBOs which were packaged as CLOs getting ready to file chap 7/11. We haven't addressed the debt overhang at the consumer level. Hearing an uptick of mass layoffs. Equity markets in the stratosphere, gold rocketing, with a complete disconnect from the bond markets.
All of the upticks in the graphs we're seeing is artificial. We're in a bubble of hope, and it's built on a foundation of lies. When it pops we're going to see despair on a mass scale. Lives ruined. Boomers realizing that retirement is a complete hoax, predicated on a ponzi scheme paying out indefinitely.
So no particular catalyst. Just the expectation that reality cannot be suspended much longer.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 11/24/2009 - 3:47 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
human sexuality studies and related behavioral research
Which, in all honesty, is what really matters. The people worried about "the Fed", and "deficits", and "the future" are all insane. The person that dies with the most orgasms wins.
You can get those from buying certain brands of laundry detergent instead of others and by using certain hair care products, I hear. All those smiling beautiful women on my teevee can't just be faking it.
According to Chadwick Prater Homes' voluntary petition, it has assets of between $0 and $50,000, and liabilities of between $1 million and $10 million.
Now that's how to do it! Ranks right up there with that bankrupt gold trader mentioned a few weeks ago whose "hoard" consisted of yellow-painted blocks.
SANDY SPRINGS, GA (USA TODAY)- Some of the most elegant addresses in all of Atlanta are found in this wealthy enclave. Sprawling mansions that occupy 2- to 10-acre lots are home to some of the city's most prominent residents.
They were shocked last month when a massive Halloween party exploded in their midst. More than 1,000 people jammed the streets around the brick-and-rock mansion, paying $20 apiece for admission and riding shuttle buses from the parking lot of a nearby Publix grocery, police say. Real Estate Bust Opens Doors For Parties At Vacant Houses | wltx.com
Oh WOW, I wonder why this article isn't started with a D'OH! Borrow from fedgov at 0% and get your
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Profits at U.S. companies climbed in the third quarter by the most in five years, reflecting a rebound in bank earnings.
Corporate profits were up 11 percent from the prior three months to $1.36 trillion, the biggest gain since the first quarter of 2004, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. Domestically, earnings at financial institutions surged by $97 billion, or 36 percent, while those at other companies climbed by $12.9 billion, or 2 percent.
Firms from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Morgan Stanley boosted results last quarter through trading as financial markets continued to improve following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last year. Other companies prospered by cutting costs as sales began to improve, indicating they will not be quick to boost payrolls in coming months.
“The weakness in the non-financials tells you how limited this recovery is at this point,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania. Businesses are going to be very cautious in increasing the cost side and the biggest part of the cost side is labor. They aren’t going to rush out and hire.
I agree. Meanwhile, I continue to be out of the market and the better half is looking at me and wondering what the hell I'm doing.
Last week, I told that we'd still be 20% below where we cashed out and frankly, I'm not smart enough to call the next peak. So we're just hanging out and watching the fun.
I also believe that the Fed and the treasury have actively stepped into the breach to prop up the equity markets. Their thinking is that they're not truly printing money....just replacing dollars that would otherwise be destroyed to prevent deflation.
That said, they're ignoring the real problem: we have to many claims on future production, and not enough production. They're working feverishly to prop up the claims to production, and allocating jobs away from production into asset speculation. Hence the pie they need to divide is still shrinking.
At this point we either have a greater depression or a currency collapse. Pick your poison.
Got it. I think of it as a tower being built. As the floors go up the foundation sinks and cracks and Uncle Sugar excavates and rigs and pours more concrete and makes some patches. Then Uncle Sugar (or his handlers aka money center banks, military industrial compex, etc.) puts another floor (layer of debt) on top. Ultimately, it is a leaning tower of Pisa -- right up until it falls over. Our foundation, a capitalistic republican democracy, is beginning to show stress cracks and may be insufficient to support the weight of the debt and the promises of something for nothing or the promise of more for less or whatever the promise is. Facts are stubborn. Especially math facts.
It would be nice if the people at the Fed would have read an article by Chris Giles in today's "Financial Times." The article uses IMF and OECD historical data to show that in 90+ % of post-war financial/economic crises, the output level of a country afterward never reached its pre-crisis levels. The GDP growth RATE may recover in time, but actual OUTPUT never reaches pre-crisis levels. That means that a whole bunch of laid-off workers never obtain jobs again. They become permanently jobless. An underclass.
Is this time different? If not, then there is no reason to wax optimistic about GDP "growth" returning to "normal," when it is starting from a lower base and will not provide employment for many of those currently laid off—ever.
Giles' conclusion: the aftermath of our current financial/economic bloodbath likely will be "akin to war's" aftermath.
" Why did we see explosive growth 4 years after the onset of the Great Depression ...
I have for months been wondering the same thing and this blog entry makes the most the most sense to me."
we didn't. we devalued by about 70% in January '33. We "grew about that much - less, actually - for the remainder of the 30s from that nadir. not rocket science, and certainly not growth. just a parlor trick which shouldn't confuse a bright 9 year old.
We need vigorous economic growth to ensure that unemployment goes down. That is the only way real estate prices will recover and bank balance sheets will improve.
"Elevated" is such a positive word.
This just in...
WASHINGTON (AP) -The Federal Reserve says the unfolding recovery will probably be gradual, as modest growth keeps the nation's unemployment rate elevated over the next several years.
Most Fed policymakers say it could take "five or six years" for the economy and the labor market to get back on a path of full health.
5 or 6 years?
That's like telling a woman ur dating that you plan to marry her - in 5 or 6 years.
OT (sort of): New Zealand: Hell Pizza hath no fury like a financier scorned
Hell Pizza hath no fury like a financier scorned | Stuff.co.nz
Troubled finance group Hanover is accusing Hell Pizza of positioning a mobile billboard mocking Mark Hotchin outside his six-year-old daughter's school.
Hell put the face of Mr Hotchin, Hanover's co-founder, on a billboard next to the word Greed, the name of one of its pizzas. This week it drove the billboard around Auckland and parked it outside the $30 million home that Mr Hotchin is having built.
Magic 8 Ball, what is the future:
uncertainty surrounding these forecasts was still viewed as quite elevated.
The minutes are pretty positive considering the statement. Still they are projecting unemployment above 7% in 2012.
I think they've become too optimistic.
best wishes
Nemo wrote:
I'm bullish on job loss!
"could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets"
They're keeping an eye on it so it doesn't happen.
[weird double posts]
shill wrote:
That's optimistic compared to Mish; count your blessings
....the '29 crash and subsequent unemployment rate didn't drop down to a "mere" 10% until 1941 - when we finally entered WWII. I wonder how much longer it would have taken to get UE down to less than 10% had the War NOT arrived?
energyecon wrote:
Imagine having access to an unlimited sum of money at 0%. And even if you make a bad bet with it, uncle sugar will be there to bail you out...
Banks to Give Customers the Boot, Analyst Dick Bove Says
Apparently, with fed funds so low, they no longer need us. Makes you wonder if we really need them-
The Federal Reserve says the unfolding recovery will probably be gradual, as modest growth keeps the nation's unemployment rate elevated over the next several years.
During the early 30s we began to see massive double digit GDP growth. It seems to me hard to make the argument now that this was due to government spending because if that were the case we should be seeing strong growth now.
It's important to ask the question:
Why did we see explosive growth 4 years after the onset of the Great Depression but only expect "modest growth" for the next several years even though this downturn started in 2007?
excessive risk taking is only observable in hindsight
I'd like to order a medium pizza, with fire & brimstone toppings...
Nemo wrote:
I like "enhanced"; Unemployment expected to remain enhanced,...
Can't we just redefine "unemployment rate" and make it all better? Call if U-0.5 or something. A.K.A. U-Screwed.
What is truly scary, I don't fear high unemployment or underemployment as much as I fear what the govt will do to "fix it"
While members currently saw the likelihood of such effects as relatively low, they would remain alert to these risks.
As soon as hedge fund redemptions are funded, we'll start the clock.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
If I had socialist medicare I'd quit my job tomorrow. That might fix some things.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
Or how they will choose to distribute the fixin'-
ac wrote:
No debt destruction this time round, yet.
Anyone want a job busting the heads of those student radicals at UC? We'll take the lowest bidder. Don't worry, if you shoot a student we can't afford to try and imprison you anyway. (Although a disgruntled deputy may shoot you). In fact, why doesn't everyone just start using their firearms, free market style?
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Talk about being math impaired. Run the numbers. -IF- we start generating 440,000 new jobs every month from now until 2012 we'll barely get to 7%. Every month of no jobs creation adds 20,000 to that necessity. Two more months of 250k losses and we start the new year with a need for 100,000 more per month on top of that 440,000.
We cannot get back to 7% unemployment by 2012 and the Fed knows it but doesn't want to "scare" anyone.
No debt destruction this time round, yet.
That's what's scary.
If the debt destruction is necessary for recovery then that portends a final outcome possibly worse than the Great Depression.
Yes.
10% UE is the new normal.
Get used to it.
Cinco-X wrote:
How could it be worse than it's distributed now?
Watch out
In reply to the mortgage math in the last thread.
The duration of a 30 year mortgage at a 5% rate is roughly 11 (not years, duration has no unit!). Holding the payment steady, a 1% move in mortgage rate implies an 11% move in the size of the mortgage. Even at 10% mortgage rate, the number holds reasonably true.
So a 100k mortgage at 5% will require the same payment as an 89k mortgage at 6%.
That's a rule of thumb with some math behind it.
HomeGnome wrote:
Which is why they'll need public health care and perpetual ue payments.
Rob Dawg wrote:
11% is still above 7%, right? So what's the problem?!
dawg, we can't expect the FOMC to be able to do math, can we?
Screw the UE stats, EMRATIO is going submariner until 2014:
energyecon: EMRATIO - Continued negative acceleration Year Over Year
Labor insecurity is good for the economy, right?
Can't we just redefine "unemployment rate" and make it all better? Call if U-0.5 or something. A.K.A. U-Screwed.
We're working smarter, not harder. How about the "Smart Employment Rate"?
Sorry if already posted:
Blacks hit hard by economy's punch - washingtonpost.com
"34.5 percent of young African American men are unemployed"
I pointed out the other day that unemployment tax increases are now really hitting businesses.
So money that could otherwise go to new hires must instead be sent to the state for redistribution to the unemployed.
This is not encouraging new job creation - in fact it could result in a further increase in job loss.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Or you could convince people to retire, or immigrate to another country, or they could become discouraged and leave the labor force. Or you could simply adjust the birth death model.
Deluded Servitude wrote:
It seems to be good for the stock market-
I bet the Fed has a sign on the front door that reads ' Shhh, Geniuses at Work"
some investor guy wrote:
Works for me! Please please please please pass the socialists health-care program.
some investor guy wrote:
Now we're gettin' somewhere
How about a jobs plan where everyone making over a million a year has to hire a domestic servant with health benefits?
Yes, complete snark.
ot-I'm just not buying this...
Police: Ky. census worked staged death as homicide - Yahoo! News
$% the fed....sometimes the devil dresses up in white too..
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
We never should have shown them how to use VisiCalc.
Here is a Fed Governor watching for the first signs of inflation.
"10% UE is the new normal."
Which is why they'll need public health care and perpetual ue payments.
Yep, they're going to be permanent but only temporarily until the time we can no longer pay for them.
The Fed's objectives are more like aspirational goals. And darnit, people like me and Lloyd and Jamie and Larry and Barrack and all our friends. So let's keep telling people what they want to hear instead of the truth.
you have to admit now that timmay the forehead is at treas the average iq level of the Fed must have plunged
Nearly all participants were disingenuous jackasses.
Well, the Rolling Stones have sold out so much they can't sell out any more, and U2 doesn't seem so interested in turning a profit for the stadium owner: that's part of why they're popular. If you have a lot of slaves, they aren't going to pay much for tickets to the circus.
What becomes of the redundant sheriffs in Sacramento, made so because they made too much money?
Some things the Fed should consider:
The video is here: Monty Python: Meaning of Life, Fat Man Eating and Exploding
We're now in the vomit on our friends stage.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
They get lower paying jobs as contracted security.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
You need to practice your "suspension of disbelief". Otherwise, you'll never be able to enjoy action movies-
I got mixed up when you wrote 'aging facility' and Rolling Stones, same-same, no?
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Why? Was the word "FED" written like it was done in a mirror?
you have to admit now that timmay the forehead is at treas the average iq level of the Fed must have plunged
Little Timmy reminds me of Ryan Howard from The Office.
FWIW, Calculated Risk made it onto:
RealClearMarkets: Market-Related News, Analysis & Commentary
today-
MrBeach wrote:
This is correct, except I think TPTB know it too. In our Monty Python skit we're trying to postpone the vomiting event to sometime (anytime) in the future, just not right now. So, we're probably stuff that guy with antacid tablets.
So the ex-sheriffs become rent-a-cops, with the potential to get their old jobs back, at a lot less money?
MrBeach wrote:
What we really need is for a developed, law-abiding economy to implode and send us a stream of refugees who have assets and will fill vacant housing. Extra points if they speak english already. Japan? UK? Ireland?
50% snark.
ac wrote:
Forty-hour workweek.
MrBeach wrote:
Unfortunately, a lot of that "capacity" isn't worth it's asking price, and as time goes on, it'll be worth less. That goes both for capital equipment and housing-
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Often, vomiting is the best thing todo when you're feeling sick - as a natural defense against ingested toxins. Our collective economic body is so larded up right now on depreciating dollars and toxic assets, that even the threat of a lifestyle change: more veggies and exercise would lead to immediate panic and cardiac arrest.
FEDRUM! FEDRUM!
All housing is worth less over time, c.p.
broward wrote:
Hmmm. Another possibility... Socialist health care and a 30 hour week. (plus perpetual ue benefits).
maybe creative reuse of the Silverdome could involve making it the worlds largest growhouse
energyecon wrote:
Yup. Out come the Fed minutes, and down goes Bucky.
Oh give Little Timmy a break already. He just is parroting his profs who fed this crap to him in expensive private school all the way through the Ivy Leagues. Greenspan over-intellectualized it all including cooking govt reporting numbers to meet an end rather than to serve the public. Timmy just isn't as verbose and doesn't have the same ability in using arcane/obtuse language sets of the Gods to confuse the followers. Greenspan took the Codex with him. We went from an agrarian country to indebted serfs in record time thanks to Harvard Business School elites and their practitioners shored up by hoards of MBAs who believe cooking books is for accounting, mark to market, not meal preparation.
Supermarkets are getting savvy to shoplifters, I saw a non-mechanical orange-colored nightstand cowboy with a bar code on it in the veggie aisle, the other day.
You'll always get a bonus if what you innovate turns out to have real value. You will have to suffer through deadbeats and their kids getting unearned vaccinations and processed cheese.
Ben ♥ Kermit
Why did we see explosive growth 4 years after the onset of the Great Depression but only expect "modest growth" for the next several years even though this downturn started in 2007?
ac,
That's the cost of preserving the value of faux wealth/fraudulently issued bank credit.
1 in 4 Borrowers Underwater
1 in 15 Banks Near Failure
1 in 6 Unemployed or Underemployed
FDIC Bankrupt
States Near Default
America -- the land of the free, the brave, the credit card millionaires. The land of instant gratification. The land of rob tomorrow to live high on the hog today. The land of gladly paying for today's Cheeseburger next Tuesday -- or at least promising you will. The land of .... wait for it ... mendacity. This is a cultural problem, folks.
2x
I look at it this way: I am only 48 hours from cracking open the first enhanced eggnog of the season. Life can still be good. Joy!
"If the debt destruction is necessary for recovery then that portends a final outcome possibly worse than the Great Depression."
Bingo bongo...give that man a c-gar.
I did not know Michigan was an agricultural mecca. I thought the growing season was too short.
Mixed martial arts is having a special fight Saturday evening. Angry Saver versus Ben Bernanke.
They're pretty evenly based. I give Angry Saver better odds if the fight stays on the feet. Bernanke is known to be dirty on the ropes and is especially dangerous on the ground with his ground and pound style.
Also Summers us the referee so another plus for Bernanke.
Should see
any second now-
uh oh
Hunger hits Detroit - Aug. 6, 2009 [Otis's
link]
We need Federal Credit Cards and a $5000/mo stimulus per family.
And healthcare.
We might as well party naked till the cops come.
The E pills wear off in four hours.
Are these the same fortune tellers that Oblame has been using? cause their track record isn't so hot.
Imagine the millions of bushels of Tomatoes one can grow in the indoor Silverdome year round!
CalculatedRisk wrote:
That's like me estimating that my net worth is below $244,776,000,000,000,000.00
True but useless.
Why did we see explosive growth 4 years after the onset of the Great Depression but only expect "modest growth" for the next several years even though this downturn started in 2007?
I have for months been wondering the same thing and this blog entry makes the most the most sense to me.
Not a contradiction per se, but the GDP growth of that period did not result in a commensurate reduction in unemployment. It was WWII that created full employment.
It took a demand event as substantial as WWII in order to absorb the enormous industrial capacity fed by the 1920's equity bubble. US GDP bottomed out in 1933, but total GDP did not surpass 1929 levels until 1941. The growth rates of the era were strong relative to the bottom from which they had come, but the absolute amount of GDP was still low compared to what it had been prior to the crash.
I would surmise that because the 1920's equity bubble had created so much overcapacity that there was little need during the 1930's to add to it. That excess capacity was necessarily accompanied by a lack of investment, which led to continued low employment, which slowed the growth of consumption. Additional consumption during the 1930's was still below that of 1929 levels, so it was easily absorbed by preexisting capacity; accordingly, employment and investment did not need to be increased to fulfill increasing demand.
Consequently, the economic growth of that period didn't create enough jobs to eliminate excess unemployment. The government programs of the 1930's weren't substantial enough to absorb the excess industrial capacity, either, so investment stagnated along with everything else.
The government programs of the 1930's may have made things more bearable, but they weren't large enough to break the overcapacity logjam. The lead up to WWII was significant enough to change that.
The military spending of 1941 was the beginning of the end. WWII was such an enormous undertaking that it easily absorbed all of that capacity, and generated enough new demand that employment could be created. But that was a unique event. Wars are usually bad for economies; WWII was an exception, and then only for a few nations, such as the US.
http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/02/did_world_war_ii_end_the_great.php
Cant have the populace believe that some people hate the feds....better to say he was looped and took out insurance to prosper off his own hanging in the middle of nowhere, naked with FED scrawled on his chest....
so he climbed that tree naked and tied the branch while his nads rubbed against bark....yeah right....
Hackman wrote:
They even have peaches: Index page
Good ones too.
In fact on the Michigan agriculture thing, I thought that the short growing season is what lead to the northern parts of this nation to move to cottage industries like light and heavy manufacturing while the southern parts remained largely agrarian until mechanized farming drove the former field hands in search of other jobs to provide for themselves and their families. Maybe I got that all wrong.
Why do the mounties value the medicinal @ just Cdn $260 per plant up over in the Gulag Hockeypelago, whilst the law enforcement types here value them @ $2500 per plant?
I'm calling bullshit on the Michigan is for Produce thing. Sorry folks, that dog don't hunt.
Exchange rate. Dollar tanking
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
I assume you've never traveled across the river from Detroit to Windsor. Let me assure you hydroponics is hardly the attraction to the fair city of Windsor. Windsor is known only for the Windsor Ballet. It's quite something to behold.
dreamer wrote:
Here's another option:
AngloAustria: Why you've never heard of the 1921 Depression
The American Conservative -- The Harding Way
This is the best explanation for our American Lost Decade I've ever seen (HT ZH):
As Koo frames them, the key features of a balance sheet recession are the following:
* A balance sheet recession emerges after the bursting of a nationwide asset price bubble that leaves a large number of private-sector balance sheets with more liabilities than assets.
* In order to repair their balance sheets, private sector moves away from profit maximization to debt minimization.
* With the private sector de-leveraging, even at zero interest rates, newly generated savings and debt repayments enter the banking system but cannot leave the system due to the lack of borrowers.
* The sum of savings and debt repayments end up becoming the leakage to the income stream.
* The deflationary gap created by the above leakage will continue to push the economy toward a contractionary equilibrium until the private sector is too impoverished to save any money (=depression).
* In this type of recession, the economy will not enter self-sustaining growth until private sector balance sheets are repaired.
The full story
I was born and grew up in Georgia. I know peaches. I picked 'em in the orchards as a young teen. My wife was born and grew up in Michigan. She came south about 25 years ago. She still complains about the crappy produce she grew up with, and she did from when she first got here -- before stuff was shipped in from South America. So, sorry Michigan -- go back to building Chyslers and Camaros or what not.
Hackman wrote:
Wisconsin is big in ag., but a lot of it is dairy.
Hackman wrote:
Jeez. They grow stuff in Alaska. Lots of stuff grows in less than 2 months. Michigan is like Canada. They even have wine-grapes growing in Canada. It's not JUST Detroit on a frozen tundra.
GM May Shut Saab as Koenigsegg Ends Acquisition Talks (Correct) - Bloomberg.com
Once a good brand, sucked into the GM black hole and vaporized.
Re the fed and the market.
I knew a guy who owned a Porsche. About 10 years ago he went for dinner at a friends in the Santa Cruz mountains. One of the dinner guests was a police man who patrols for speeders on that section of the mountain.
Upon seeing that my friend was driving a Porsche he mentioned that he would be staying for a while and that the only other guy patrolling that section of road was off that night. Just like Bernanke he did recommend my friend take care driving home (wink, wink, nudge, nudge)
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
It's not even Detroit on a frozen tundra anymore.
There. Fixed that for ya.
Uh huh, yeah. That AgriBusiness boom in Alaska and Michigan and other points way up North is gonna save the day. Keep waiting for that.
I didn't write it. It's from a link, in quotation marks. OtisHertz posted the link; I can't vouch for CNN.money....
I have for months been wondering the same thing and this blog entry makes the most the most sense to me.
Or you could consider the actual facts: "The Great Depression – Just the Facts, Ma’am"
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com:80/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0902/document/ec020909.pdf
Excellent link, thanks BS
Rob Dawg wrote:
Who knows... Perhaps orchards are Detroit's only future.
Bearly, I grew up in Windsor. I don't remember any redeeming feature of that town. Too small for any big city features. Too large for any small town qualities. Wheee, what a blast of blah memories.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Finland has amazing vegetation and flowers, lots of daylight and winter kills almost all the bugs. Shocking when you first see it as your mind does not expect it.
Thanks for the link that's why I asked the question.
Oh Hackman: I was raised in the south. The peaches today don't even resemble what I remember. Big, so juicy/flavorful they were really messy with juice running down your arm. Now all those get shipped to Japan. You likely get some but the rest of us don't. I would kill for a really good peach.
The 2008 GAO report revealed that 60-80% of our fruits and vegetables are now imported. Apple farmers in Washington State either have to adopt industrialized methods or lose their orchards, some long standing, generations owned/operated and productive orchards are even razed. Its sick.
poic wrote:
It's not Detroit?
Heard about an unfortunate fellow from down under that crossed the border into the frozen tundra of the Gulag Hockeypelago without his ice skates, and within minutes his shoes were stuck solid to the ground, which is where they found him, come the spring thaw in late August...
Hackman wrote:
Not saying they'll save anything. Just that ag doesn't have to be huge corporate ag. Local producers of ag products can be very productive. Michigan peaches were sold in farmer's markets in Evanston Ill in the 70's. I used to buy them. They were good, but only lasted a few weeks (if I recall).
Next time you are in the supermarket, take a look at where all the canned and bottled fruit comes from, nowadays...
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Armed guards negate any transportation/distribution efficiencies gleaned from being local.
WWII "bulldozed" a lot extra capacity in Japan and Europe. We'd have no problem in the US with UE if we did the same to China and Europe today.
Horrible survivorship bias at work. WWII involved rationing and massive socialized labor-- not just the WPA, also the Army.
poic wrote:
So, were you employed in some fashion by the Windsor Ballet ? A ballet dancer perhaps ?
Would it be so bad if the greenback was to achieve parody with the Mexican Peso?
I don't buy any fruits or veggies from overseas outside of Pineapples from Hawaii...easy to do without...it my carbon footprint reduction....
Summer is for fruit, winter is for canned fruit....
Crashing CRE News Flash: Major resort development gets taken back by Wells:
-- No wonder they have been advertising so heavily these past few months.
Wells Fargo Takes Over Deed to Sea Island’s Frederica Community
By Peter Waldman and Laurence Viele Davidson
Wells Fargo Takes Over Deed to Sea Island’s Frederica Community - Bloomberg.com
Local News | Illegal workers quietly let go | Seattle Times Newspaper
"The agency's new enforcement approach was showcased in Los Angeles last month when American Apparel fired 1,800 immigrant employees — more than a quarter of its workforce — after an immigration audit.
And a janitorial company in Minnesota quietly fired 1,200 workers around the same time after an investigation found they were working there illegally."
This is what worries me now. Massive debt forgiveness of nations is difficult and what we face now. Can anyone provide me with any evidence that it happens outside of massive wars?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Yolo County CaLi has good peaches, just as you described. It has to be right from the farm tho. Store produce has to be picked for shipping and storage. But, if you go to some farmers markets in peach growing areas the peaches can be fantastic. Depends of the farmer too. So are good, some aren't.
Nothing wrong with some "excess" capacity if prices come down to where the marginal consumer can enjoy the excess, with a little help from his friends on occasion. Oh yeah, profits suffer. Bankers go without bonuses. The horror, the horror.
N-N,
Very interesting observation. My belief is that you don't forgive to help the person being forgiven, you do it for yourself. I don't think many people, or any nations, really understand that.
Orwells Fargo taking over a very John Law-sounding enterprise, named Sea Island Co.?
2x+ good~
Isn't St. Simon's where Henry Paulson went after the 'regime change'?
Well, you can sneer at "money printing" all you want, but if we're over 10 percent U3 next year (it'll probably be above 11) and have millions of people who've been without jobs with a couple of years, things are going to start to get interesting. Keep it up much longer and the American Renewal Party (socialists) and the Freedom for All Party (Fascists with armbands) will be neck and neck for the presidency.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Not a lot of those any more,...are you sure they're from Hawaii?
Obama has been a complete failure thus far:
increasing troop levels
rewarding criminal bank execs
wasting taxpayer money
losing jobs
exploding the deficit
higher taxes
Why stop here? Might as well saddle the nation with another unfunded entitlement, the most massive one ever!
So.... Where are the clawbacks?
Every day is worse than the last one. Total disaster.
IIRC correctly, and my history is atrocious, the USA did not get payment for WWII debt from other nations and I do believe that includes the UK.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
We "lent" a lot of South American countries money which I think we "forgave" in the late seventies or early eighties to keep our banks afloat.
N-N,
So Paulson is The Creature at St. Simon's (which is just North of Jekyl Island where I spend my summers as a youth).
bearly wrote:
I think the full measure of his failure is that at first, he was everywhere. And now, in the public mind, he's faded into the background. Just another suit in a town full of suits. Promising more than he can do, and with less influence than one or two of the guys he was told to appoint to work for him.
hey bob, have things settled down at UC-SC? for some reason, it seemed that the UC administrators thought that they could ram 30% tuition increases without causing a nationwide stink.
bearly wrote:
There's no choice anymore. Besides, if the Banksters are getting 100+ B$ / year in bonuses we can fund socialist health-care for roughly the same cost per year. What difference does it make at this point. Everything is fake.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Obama is good at winning rigged popularity contests. Just one more smart, amoral scumbag scheming to get re-elected. If you can't beat the man, be the man. Why would he really change the systems that have rewarded him so greatly?
Oh thats right, I do remember that. But it pales in comparison now and to whom we owe is utterly astounding, basically its the world, but Japan, China are the largest holders (I think).
Yes Hackman, better known as the creature in dark financial pools. Bad word play for the Creature of the Black Lagoon.
Establishing dominance and control of a group requires demonstrating abilities to create and destroy.
Aggression is a necessary requirement for asserting and maintaining control.
Sadly, the most assertive and aggressive have been the banksters and not the politicians.
On 31 December, the UK will make a payment of about $83m (£45.5m) to the US and so discharge the last of its loans from World War II from its transatlantic ally.
It is hard from a modern viewpoint to appreciate the astronomical costs and economic damage caused by this conflict. In 1945, Britain badly needed money to pay for reconstruction and also to import food for a nation worn down after years of rationing.
"In a nutshell, everything we got from America in World War II was free," says economic historian Professor Mark Harrison, of Warwick University.
"The loan was really to help Britain through the consequences of post-war adjustment, rather than the war itself. This position was different from World War I, where money was lent for the war effort itself." ......
And while the UK dutifully pays off its World War II debts, those from World War I remain resolutely unpaid. And are by no means trifling. In 1934, Britain owed the US $4.4bn of World War I debt (about £866m at 1934 exchange rates). Adjusted by the Retail Price Index, a typical measure of inflation, £866m would equate to £40bn now, and if adjusted by the growth of GDP, to about £225bn.
World War II Forums - View Single Post - England paying America
Bob Dobbs wrote:
+1,000. And I voted for that suit.
N-N,
Isn't there a book called The Creature of Jekyl Island about the formation of the Fed? I think I've seen it mentioned.
yep..California gets them...the secret is letting them ripen until golden all around..delish....
non american is right- Yolo county has some great peaches...plums, nectarines and sweet white corn....
Summer in California is a fruit lovers dream....some parts of san francisco tends to be a year round thingy though...
MrBeach wrote:
Interesting. It makes sense that the banksters would be the most assertive and aggressive as that's where the loot is. Regardless of what we think of politicians they aren't the wealthiest people of the society. They are just agents (whores) of the real power people.
Basel Too wrote:
Kid @UCLA) reports calm on the surface but discontent pervasive. One of the biggest complaints is that the MSM so completely abrogated their responsibility to report the events.
dum luk wrote:
That oughtta help. What, maybe 5 seconds worth on the US Debt Clock ?
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com:80/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0902/document/ec020909.pdf
Reading the article it does make a great deal of sense. This however this comment at the end of the article is definitely prescient.
But the facts of the 1930s appear to be pretty clear – monetized increased federal government spending does result in increased real economic activity in the short run.
The economic data are likely to be abysmal through the first half of this year. The popular media will reinforce the gloom of the data. The same pundits who did not see this downturn coming will not see the recovery coming either. My advice to you is to keep your eye on the index of Leading Economic Indicators. If history is any guide, the LEI will signal a recovery well ahead of the pundits.
Giving this information check out the current conference board indicators. Is it just me or is there an appearance of some flattening of the curve recently? Will be interesting to see if it leads to the top end of a curve leading to that "W" experience.
http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/USLEIpr_1109.pdf
just finished watching csi miami it was about dead peasants insurance. or dead employees insurance
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
One reason the spouse and I go to NZ every winter (here). NZ is like a repeat fruit season. There's a fruit area on the south island near a town named Cromwell that is the "fruit capital" of the country (and has good Pinot). It's too cold to grow CaLi or Georgia style peaches, but still - fresh peaches in the winter is worth the airfare.
Oh, I'm not familiar with that but that might be an interesting read, I'll perhaps go on a search for it later.
I get "Amish peaches" where I live now. Its just not right. But if we keep this up I'll go into a LONG WHINE over foods I miss badly. That's what I get for marrying a Yankee.
United States public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Rob Dawg wrote:
Well, the youngsters are our only hope. Maybe they'll be the end of MSM. But, just to keep them honest: GET A JOB YOU HIPPIES, I DIDN'T GET FREE TUITION WHEN I WAS YOUR AGE, I PAYED FOR IT. AND GET A HAIRCUT!
"Leading Index – Underscores U.S. Economy Will Continue to Grow "
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com:80/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0911/document/dd111909.pdf
Daily Global Commentary Index
sdtfs wrote:
No good deed goes unpunished-
dum luk wrote:
It's interesting, however, the 4 of 6 LEI that showed improvement were these: stock prices, interest rate spread, jobless claims, real money supply. Shouldn't these be treated like the CPI (excluding the things that we don't want to think about) measurement?
So Obama has promised to "finish the job" In Afghanistan. What job is that exactly? Spending our last dime to deny the terrorist a safe haven when we can't even secure Ft. Hood Texas?
Mission accomplished, Sir.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 11/24/2009 - 3:30 pm
Kid @UCLA) reports calm on the surface but discontent pervasive. One of the biggest complaints is that the MSM so completely abrogated their responsibility to report the events.
As if the MSM had any ethical responsibility or conscience beyond that prescribed by their handlers on behalf of their owners... we're lucky it even got coverage, and soon enough it will slip into the memory hole to make room for celebrity life event updates and exaggerated conclusions drawn from the latest findings from human sexuality studies and related behavioral research.
Apologies if this was posted previously. Looks like Buffet is going to feast on Capmark...and I gotta wonder if he might regret that one.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601208&sid=apixw3JEu6c4
Of course this is just the servicing unit. Wonder what happens to the other part of Capmark, like the lending part?
Chadwick Prater Homes files Chapter 11
Chadwick Prater Homes files Chapter 11 - Nashville Business Journal:
Bearded Spock wrote:
Spreadin' freedom buddy. Can't have enough freedom spread, now can we?
RIF:
Is that the long form of fornicating harlots?
more about sea islands ga
Wells Fargo takes over Frederica at Sea Island - Atlanta Business Chronicle:
nanoo
i think finland paid us
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Which, in all honesty, is what really matters. The people worried about "the Fed", and "deficits", and "the future" are all insane. The person that dies with the most orgasms wins.
Lol
Thanks gabyjan: I saw atrocious numbers out of Atlanta recently at the Atlanta Fed site and I'm still upset over that stinking move by the FDIC not to release the results of the public auction of property on their books. Any chatter about that down there?
The next downleg will be VICIOUS.
GavHath,
I have read your comments for years now and respect them. First, are you serious? Second, if so, give us details and a little analysis.
Gavshire Hathaway wrote:
Of course, that will be going from DOW 25,000 down to current levels.
The next downleg will be VICIOUS.
....and just how many failed head and shoulders patterns have you counted ?
GM Brand Sales Update:
Somebody just got the US taxpayer to pay more than the government bargained for
GM's Saab sale collapses as buyer backs out
| Reuters
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Oh, THAT kind of freedom. I think I saw a John Deer freedom spreader once in Visalia. I went to take a closer look and I stepped in some freedom . Then I had to throw my shoes away.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Is Fiat and Chrysler still happening?
Bearded Spock wrote:
Priceless my man. Priceless.
nanoo
i think i am only one chattering down here
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
PAGING ELVIS TO NODE 8448; PAGING ELVIS TO NODE 8448
AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGALE THE COMMENTARIAT WITH EXAMPLES OF YOUR VIRILITY HAS ARISEN
Weren't these developed as effective leading indicators of growth after an inventory recession? It is quite a leap to ascribe the same predictive powers in a balance sheet recession...
ehp-
Auto sector headed for repeat failures: Fitch
| Reuters
auto meet airlines...
If Fiat sells bonds to raise money for a the Chrysler acquisition, are the bonds considered Fiat money?
Yes and also of note October (0.4) was less than September. One month does not make a trend but the next release on Dec 17th might tell us a lot more. If it's less than 0.4 then watch out below.
Bearded Spock wrote:
Another instant classic. Rule by Fiat. Transport by Fiat. Money by Fiat.
When mimes are arrested; are they told they have the right to remain silent?
Hack,
I'm just hearing stresses all over. Residential has been propped up, CRE is ready to implode. Rumors of companies that are debt laden from LBOs which were packaged as CLOs getting ready to file chap 7/11. We haven't addressed the debt overhang at the consumer level. Hearing an uptick of mass layoffs. Equity markets in the stratosphere, gold rocketing, with a complete disconnect from the bond markets.
All of the upticks in the graphs we're seeing is artificial. We're in a bubble of hope, and it's built on a foundation of lies. When it pops we're going to see despair on a mass scale. Lives ruined. Boomers realizing that retirement is a complete hoax, predicated on a ponzi scheme paying out indefinitely.
So no particular catalyst. Just the expectation that reality cannot be suspended much longer.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 11/24/2009 - 3:47 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
human sexuality studies and related behavioral research
Which, in all honesty, is what really matters. The people worried about "the Fed", and "deficits", and "the future" are all insane. The person that dies with the most orgasms wins.
You can get those from buying certain brands of laundry detergent instead of others and by using certain hair care products, I hear. All those smiling beautiful women on my teevee can't just be faking it.
In Texas, you get a Judge to sign a Fiat to set a hearing date. Fiat. Nice word. Sometimes I ask myself, got Fiat? Sadly, the answer is usually no.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Interesting phrase: ... will grapple with "boom and bust cycles without the boom," Fitch said.
shill wrote:
Now that's how to do it! Ranks right up there with that bankrupt gold trader mentioned a few weeks ago whose "hoard" consisted of yellow-painted blocks.
SANDY SPRINGS, GA (USA TODAY)- Some of the most elegant addresses in all of Atlanta are found in this wealthy enclave. Sprawling mansions that occupy 2- to 10-acre lots are home to some of the city's most prominent residents.
They were shocked last month when a massive Halloween party exploded in their midst. More than 1,000 people jammed the streets around the brick-and-rock mansion, paying $20 apiece for admission and riding shuttle buses from the parking lot of a nearby Publix grocery, police say.
Real Estate Bust Opens Doors For Parties At Vacant Houses | wltx.com
Kellogg's Lays Off Employees
Kellogg's Lays Off Employees | Georgia Public Broadcasting
war is never good for the economy. NEVER NEVER NEVER..... Can't anyone get that through their skull.
Throwing a brick through a window is never, ever additive...
you want people to stop buying chinese products...show them this....
Amazing Pictures, Pollution in China | ChinaHush
Oh WOW, I wonder why this article isn't started with a D'OH! Borrow from fedgov at 0% and get your
I agree. Meanwhile, I continue to be out of the market and the better half is looking at me and wondering what the hell I'm doing.
Last week, I told that we'd still be 20% below where we cashed out and frankly, I'm not smart enough to call the next peak. So we're just hanging out and watching the fun.
I also believe that the Fed and the treasury have actively stepped into the breach to prop up the equity markets. Their thinking is that they're not truly printing money....just replacing dollars that would otherwise be destroyed to prevent deflation.
That said, they're ignoring the real problem: we have to many claims on future production, and not enough production. They're working feverishly to prop up the claims to production, and allocating jobs away from production into asset speculation. Hence the pie they need to divide is still shrinking.
At this point we either have a greater depression or a currency collapse. Pick your poison.
Damn you bacon. Damn you to heck.
GH,
GH,
Got it. I think of it as a tower being built. As the floors go up the foundation sinks and cracks and Uncle Sugar excavates and rigs and pours more concrete and makes some patches. Then Uncle Sugar (or his handlers aka money center banks, military industrial compex, etc.) puts another floor (layer of debt) on top. Ultimately, it is a leaning tower of Pisa -- right up until it falls over. Our foundation, a capitalistic republican democracy, is beginning to show stress cracks and may be insufficient to support the weight of the debt and the promises of something for nothing or the promise of more for less or whatever the promise is. Facts are stubborn. Especially math facts.
Earlier I made nasty comments about the President. I voted for him. I am bitterly disappointed in him. I suspect there are many like me.
At this point, I have equal disdain for both parties.
It would be nice if the people at the Fed would have read an article by Chris Giles in today's "Financial Times." The article uses IMF and OECD historical data to show that in 90+ % of post-war financial/economic crises, the output level of a country afterward never reached its pre-crisis levels. The GDP growth RATE may recover in time, but actual OUTPUT never reaches pre-crisis levels. That means that a whole bunch of laid-off workers never obtain jobs again. They become permanently jobless. An underclass.
Is this time different? If not, then there is no reason to wax optimistic about GDP "growth" returning to "normal," when it is starting from a lower base and will not provide employment for many of those currently laid off—ever.
Giles' conclusion: the aftermath of our current financial/economic bloodbath likely will be "akin to war's" aftermath.
" Why did we see explosive growth 4 years after the onset of the Great Depression ...
I have for months been wondering the same thing and this blog entry makes the most the most sense to me."
we didn't. we devalued by about 70% in January '33. We "grew about that much - less, actually - for the remainder of the 30s from that nadir. not rocket science, and certainly not growth. just a parlor trick which shouldn't confuse a bright 9 year old.
We need vigorous economic growth to ensure that unemployment goes down. That is the only way real estate prices will recover and bank balance sheets will improve.
-- link deleted by kcoop