CPI less shelter, eh? Why would a consumer want to eat?

Either housing prices and rents are still too high, or personal disposable income is still too low.

It really doesn't matter which, as long as the relationship rationalizes.

excellent synopsis

why I come here

that and the jickjack comments

Of course, eventual unemployment figures may throw a monkeywrench into these calculations. Unless they begin accepting something other than cash as payment.

Notice the price-to-rent ratio is currently almost as high as during the late '80s housing bubble.

That pretty much tells me everything I need to know.
goes back to hibernation

Why is the price to income ratio set to 1:1 in 1987, and not simply (median price)/(median income)?

Banks don't "fail", they are placed into receivership. There is no objective determination; apparently whenever the bank failure czar Sheila decides it's time, she shuts 'em down. The Bankruptcy Court doesn't close corporations, but the FDIC closes banks. I wouldn't attach any statistical meaning to the number of "failed" or "problem" banks.

Where can I find out how many homes in my neighborhood are currently owned / rented by the gov'ment?

Does the price-to-rent ratio include the tax benefits of mortgage interest?

Note to kcoop/CRommertariat: In the new hoocoobluetwo template, why is there no way to click a link to CR's post from within a comment thread or am I missing its new placement?

The only reason Price-to-rent looks reasonable is because of the artificially low interest rates. Allow rates to bounce from 4.5% back up to around 6% (or more), and prices will need to drop by at least 17%.

It costs a pretty penny to be living la vida So Cal, as a renter. Figure on it costing you a minimum of $20k a year, if you are one of the many single adults (17% nationwide in 1970, vs. 27% today) eking out a living...

Yes. And there will be a long term shift upward in rates eventually.

CalculatedRisk wrote:

23% of buyers in October were cash buyers

Which is a pretty fascinating stat to me. Lots of cash sitting around waiting for something.

Which cup has the fuzzy logic under it?

I'm psyched. Houses are getting affordable AND they still have so far to drop. Awesome lather rinse repeat.

otishertz wrote:

I'm psyched. Houses are getting affordable AND they still have so far to drop. Awesome lather rinse repeat.

They're essentially free in Detroit; what are you waiting for?

NoVAwatcher wrote:

Allow rates to bounce from 4.5% back up to around 6% (or more), and prices will need to drop by at least 17%.

Recognizing all the variables that are involved, does anyone have a shorthand formula they use for this? Relationship between interest rate and principle price?

Mine vanishes under the comment count top right when I zoom my screen.

Cinco-X wrote:

They're essentially free in Detroit

I don't care the wisdom of looking in the mouths of gift horses, they are certainly not free, they come with a hidden iceberg of liabilities.

Speed wrote:

Baffling.

The USA real form of savings for the last 55 yrs.

Massive Deflation sighting in the US

Jesse's Café Américain: Massive Deflation Sighting in the US As Noted in the Asia Times

I would say the probability is 85%.

Speed wrote:

Baffling. Unless it's HELOC scraps from 2007.

If there were adequate baffles we wouldn't have all this liquidity sloshing everywhere.

So the US consumer spent more consuming resources last Q. Is that good, bad, or ugly?

These macro numbers are stupid.

Speed wrote:

Baffling. Unless it's HELOC scraps from 2007.

A few days ago, people were discussing the numbers of people that had huge amounts of available equity in houses. (A house bought in SoCa for 75k and now worth 500k, for example). The US is still a very rich country for the top 10% of the population.

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

Lots of cash sitting around waiting for something.

...something other than the equities market

ot-my bad if repost...

Auto sector headed for repeat failures: Fitch
| Reuters

repeat failures=govt viagra for the rest of their existence....

With about $125 billion in government support already doled out for the auto industry, more aid may be extended given the prospect for weak sales, Fitch said. General Motors GM.UL and Chrysler, which were both restructured with government capital, will not be in a position to access the equity markets in 2010, Fitch said.

"A number of suppliers have emerged from bankruptcy with untested business models and capital structures, which have and may result in double-dip bankruptcies," Fitch said. "The manufacturers could also fall into the same pattern."

Moreover, a double-dip recession or spike in gas prices could halt any market improvement, the agency said.

Ford Motor Co (F.N), the only automaker not to receive a government bailout, has improved its liquidity and addressed refinancing risk, Fitch said. Its access to bank loans, unsecured debt and the equity markets for now give it a competitive advantage over Chrysler and GM, Fitch said.

"Ford is best positioned from a production and product standpoint to further strengthen its balance sheet," while GM and Chrysler are still restructuring and face a more difficult road toward independently access capital, Fitch said.

volker the viking wrote:

I don't care the wisdom of looking in the mouths of gift horses, they are certainly not free, they come with a hidden iceberg of liabilities.

C'mon Volker! You know I was joking

energyecon wrote:

I would like to see that plot...

Me too.

longer beard

So the US consumer spent more consuming resources last Q. Is that good, bad, or ugly?

Bankruptcies on the rise again

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

CalculatedRisk wrote:
23% of buyers in October were cash buyers
Which is a pretty fascinating stat to me. Lots of cash sitting around waiting for something.

23% of purchases are being made at the table without recorded financing. You can bet 80% of those are either encumbered or flipped in short order.

As others have noted, there are repair issues with cheap houses. I imagine the bigger issue though is that the highest low end rent is likely somewhere around $500/month, and you can't get the places up to code and make money at that rent. For owner occupied, it would probably work.

Then raise the rate and lower the principle

Cinco's principles have been lowered enough already. Send him to the principal's office.

amazing what you stumble over with a quickie wiki

Angry Saver wrote:

I believe that low long term rates are here for years.

That is a bubble that can not go on for too much longer. I expect to see a 1979/80 type pop in inflation and interest rates. I really don't think China and Japan are going to keep buying that debt forever... particularly in the face of QE.

Detroit's money was spent on the Silverdome, benefiting private owners.

Detroit forgot that when you sell city property at a huge loss, the tax write-off doesn't help much.

We need a Cash 4 Ponzi scheme.

As market surges, many can’t afford to hop back in - The Boston Globe
The people who are most hurt in the recession are the people who are least able to benefit from a rising stock market. Meanwhile, people who have the financial means can take advantage of a fundamental principle of investing: buy when stocks are low and sell when they are high.

Doh, I meant $500 per 100k

House prices relative to incomes in the northeast and mid-atlantic need to adjust down at least 20% to come back into line, which certainly meshes with CR's assertion that most of the remaining adjustment will occur in the higher priced bubble areas.

make that:

4.5% = $500 per 100k

With the country’s ratio of gross debt to GDP hovering above 170 per cent, Japan’s debt position is already viewed by some as the most fragile of all leading economies. A glut of new debt — possibly pushing that ratio to nearly 200 per cent — is likely to play into fears in some quarters of the market that Japan is rumbling towards fiscal implosion.

Japan flirts with disaster as debt deepens - Times Online

Blackhalo wrote:

That is a bubble that can not go on for too much longer. I expect to see a 1979/80 type pop in inflation and interest rates. I really don't think China and Japan are going to keep buying that debt forever... particularly in the face of QE.

How long have rates been low in Nippon; in all likelihood, an increase in rates would crash our economy if we don't get our spending under control. What's the likelihood of that?

That is a bubble that can not go on for too much longer. I expect to see a 1979/80 type pop in inflation and interest rates.

Blackhalo,

The cost of preserving over-valued asset prices is low rates (and low growth if we're lucky).

Just thoughts.

Cinco-X wrote:

How long have rates been low in Nippon-

They have a higher savings rate to support it. Their public buys their debt. We depend on the generosity of strangers...

Blackhalo wrote:

How long have rates been low in Nippon-

The have a higher savings rate to support it. Their public buys their debt. We depend on the generosity of strangers...

We don't need a public. The Fed does it for us.....

I expect to see a 1979/80 type pop in inflation and interest rates.

You cannot charge an interest rate higher than the borrower can afford to pay.

Well, you can charge it, but you won't receive it.

draft=epic failure=seeds of revolution will begin to grow

It can be a cruel twist of fortune: The people who are most hurt in the recession are the people who are least able to benefit from a rising stock market. Meanwhile, people who have the financial means can take advantage of a fundamental principle of investing: buy when stocks are low and sell when they are high.

Even worse, by mispricing corporate debt and equities to the upside you create a situation where businesses don't actually have to invest or be productive to make money. They simply have to issue paper into the market.

Why innovate or hire new employees when you can access wealth through ponzi channels with little or no effort?

Just another example of how inflation and a financial system that is deliberately disconnected from the real economy destroy industry and productivity.

Cinco-X wrote:

Here's a start:
Future value - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I'm not really looking at FV. I was thinking 'what's the relationship between interest rate and monthly payment if amortization and principle are fixed?' I was more curious what the shape of that curve might be.

Detroit is insane, they are worried about the back taxes, but yet the delay means they aren't getting the current taxes either.

Cut your losses and call the back taxes a wash and move forward.

I've actually thought if a large investor might have a decent shot in Detroit IF they could get a deal from the bank for every property in a neighborhood or zip code, and simultaneously get a deal for the taxes as well. Not gonna happen.

Selling a house for $500 is just stupid, might as well give it away and avoid the carrying costs and paperwork.

Cinco-X wrote:

How long have rates been low in Nippon-

The Nipponese may be closer to the end of their public debt rope that they may like. Export markets are slowing down for them just like in China, and they are "enjoying" a stronger currency while they are at it!

noob goldberg wrote:

I was thinking 'what's the relationship between interest rate and monthly payment if amortization and principle are fixed?'

Mortgage Formulas

another quickie wiki

President Palin and VP Beck will finish the job in Afghanistan.
You betcha'

Turbo wrote:

Japan does show that almost unlimited money printing and massive budget deficits do not automatically lead to inflation.

And they have a graying population that is earning less and not as many people are filling in the ranks behind them. They have been a on the global market to their benefit since the 80s, and now the host is weak so they will be left with fewer opportunities to suck in the blood. See their rising UE rate.

volker the viking wrote:

I could go on.

Sacrifices human beings at the whim of the oligarchs for no obvious purpose, and without an official declaration of war from Congress.

volker says draft solves unemployment- cclt says pass the bong....what cause-fighting for more poppy fields....the youth you speak of are the direct result of shit for parents....

again pass the bong

(AP) The official uniforms for NBA players could soon be made in Asia.

Sports apparel maker Adidas plans to end its contract with American suppliers and move production to a factory in Thailand. The move could cost about 100 jobs at a factory in upstate New York that makes more than half the uniforms worn in the NBA, as well as jerseys for players in the WNBA.

New York Sen. Chuck Schumer says the move would destroy over a century of history for the marquee American sport. He is calling on Adidas to reverse its decision and to keep making the uniforms in the USA. Adidas has an 11-year merchandising deal to be the NBA's official uniform and apparel provider.

---I have no witty comment.

JP wrote:

Mortgage Formulas

I was told there would be no math.

Thanks, I'll start tinkering with those.

I don't understand why add 40,000 troops only to pull them out along with all the other forces within a year of Obama's inauguration?

Selling a house for $500 is just stupid, might as well give it away and avoid the carrying costs and paperwork.

You can't avoid the paperwork by giving it away. Tens of thousands of buildings were abandoned in New York City, where real estate only goes up, in the last cycle. But record-keeping is much better in the digital age. Judgments are enforceable for 20 years, if not renewed. You can run; getting harder to hide.

You were told wrong. (the first formula is exactly what you are asking for, btw.)

HomeGnome wrote:

---I have no witty comment.

Hu is keeping Kobe's jersey game-ready?

Blackhalo wrote:

If you can get >10% on a 30year treasury, Why would you loan to some poor schmuck to buy a house?

Why would you want to loan at 4.5% for 30 years if you're borrowing short term to do so?

JP wrote:

You were told wrong. (the first formula is exactly what you are asking for, btw.)

Yes, I see that now. The google-fu was weak, especially when I really didn't know what I was looking for

shill wrote:

Ambac Chief Financial Officer Sean Leonard resigns

And now, JPMorgan wants their turn at Treasury:

Jamie Dimon seen as good fit for Treasury - NYPOST.com

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

You can't avoid the paperwork by giving it away.

Understand that, but IMHO selling them one by one in an auction for $500 week after week is worse financially than giving them all away in one sitting.

The auctions pretty much prove the price isn't the issue, it's the lack of demand. If $500 is too high, the next step is free, so might as well encourage people to take more than one to clear the inventory.

I don't know what he'll write BUT I"M SURE IT WILL look just about LIKE THIS!!!!1!!!!!!

Indirect bidders buy 61%???Got to be a typo there. You have to be kidding.

They would do better forgiving the back taxes and recruiting individual homesteaders with independent trades than with a corporate monoculture development encompassing large swaths of land.

shill wrote:

ndirect bidders buy 61%???Got to be a typo there. You have to be kidding.

share with us shill, the definition of indirect bidders

otishertz wrote:

with a corporate monoculture development encompassing large swaths of land.

But this is Detroit we are talking about here. Where can you get some good kick-backs and corruption if you gave away housing to homesteaders in spite of the corporate interest?!

pavel.chichikov wrote:

There's only one practical way, IMHO, of solving Afghanistan, and that is by successful co-optation.

I got it! We transplant the UE Detroit folk with the UE Afghani folk! That way, we can bring Democracy to Afghanistan while aiding in rebuilding Detroit!

means prolonging the risk of being a dog/cat food muncher.

Avoiding?

How is it that no one ever calls BS when the Fed claims that financial "innovation" benefits the productive economy? A simple review of the data shows that the productive economy has been and continues to be decimated by finance (senseless debt creation).

The silence is deafening.

At best financial innovation can make interaction between agents of the real economy more efficient. I.E. good financial innovation will lubricate the gears of wealth creation (admittedly there hasn't been much of that recently).

But when the financial innovation itself is somehow responsible for creating the wealth, you know you're dealing with a load of bullsh*t.

HSBC to Retail Gold Buyers: "Get Your Gold the Hell Out of Here"

This is a fascinating report from WSJ's Carolyn Cui, which is probably the best proof yet that institutional buyers are moving into gold:

Fleets of armored trucks piled with gold bars and coins have been streaming out of midtown Manhattan in one unexpected consequence of the gold craze.

Amid gold's rise -- it has gained 32% this year and reached a record on Monday -- investors have been loading up on bullion and coins. One big problem now is where to store it. The solution from HSBC, owner of one of the biggest vaults in the U.S.: somewhere else.

HSBC has told retail clients to remove their small holdings from its fortress beneath its tower on New York City's Fifth Avenue. The bank has decided retail customers aren't profitable enough and is demanding those clients remove their gold to make room for more lucrative institutional customers...

The movement of gold from HSBC has created a stir not only among the bank's clients, but also among owners of warehouses and vaults around the country.

"I have never seen any relocation like this," says Jonathan Potts, managing director of FideliTrade, the parent company of the Delaware Depository Service Co., which has two warehouses in Wilmington. FideliTrade's two vaults have been filling up at an unprecedented pace, in part because it is taking in metal that has been ejected by HSBC...

Dealing with the fallout from HSBC's decision has become a full-time job for David Norris, executive vice president of GoldStar Trust Co., a Canyon, Texas-based retirement-account trustee, which organizes metal storage for its clients.

Mr. Norris says HSBC told GoldStar in July to immediately cease sending coins for storage. GoldStar, which had sent clients' holdings to HSBC for at least 15 years, is now figuring out how to get the coins out of the HSBC vault and down to the Delaware facility. "I can jump up and down and scream all day long about how much I don't like it. But it's their business decision," Mr. Norris says...

HSBC is telling clients to either move their metal, or prepare for it to be delivered to their doorsteps. In a July letter, seen by The Wall Street Journal, HSBC said the precious metal "will be returned to the address of record... at your expense," unless instructed otherwise...

Vault and warehouse owners say retail customers tend to be more expensive in part because of their diverse holdings. They usually buy American Eagle or Canadian Maple Leaf coins, and bars of various weights and sizes, all of which need to be categorized and stored separately. In contrast, institutions typically buy standardized bars of 100 or 400 ounces, making them easier to store. Institutions also tend to hold the metal for long periods...

Typically, a vault is protected with a 27-inch thick steel reinforced wall, surrounded with a "man-trap" -- a series of doors, each of which opens only after the previous door is locked, Mr. Coleman says.

"I got it! We transplant the UE Detroit folk with the UE Afghani folk! That way, we can bring Democracy to Afghanistan while aiding in rebuilding Detroit!"

Have you heard so far of a better plan?

I don't think most native Detroiters would like living in Herat or Kabul so very much.

Jansen:

" FAZ story warning that the two regional banks that hold a majority stake in West LB indicate they are prepared to let the bank become insolvent. This may be an attempt to force capital injections by the German government. At least 6 bln euros may be needed by the end of the month...note that concerns over Chinese banks for new capital helped fuel the largest sell-off of the Shanghai Composite since the end of August. China’s five largest banks submitted to the government preliminary plans to raise capital. While US and European banks need to raise new capital to replace the capital lost, Chinese banks lent a record CNY4.7 trillion (roughly the size of TARP) and need to rebuild its capital to hit the capital ratio targets."

What's that?? Chinese banks are short of capital?!? How can that be?

Merging our 19 century theocracy with their 5 century one?

In th 5th Century they were not Islamic. Try the 12th century.

As for us, our 19th century Protestant culture is mostly long gone. Look around.

*I don't think Afghanis would like living in Detroit so very much. *

I'm not so sure. If the US consular office in Kabul were handing out visas, there might be a sizable crowd outside.

To quote the immortal Kurt Vonnegut: I didn't write it, but I wish I had.

Wait. It is too much trouble for them to profitably store huge amounts of G*LD? This is a preparatory move for something other than anticipated big orders. One way to limit liability to the smaller account holders is to get them to leave without problems. I mean, HSBC lends gold. They fractionally reserve gold. Why would they not want gold? Why not just expand operations?

yagij wrote:

Second Comment: I don't think Afghanis would like living in Detroit so very much.

FYI- Largest concentrations of Chaldeans are in Detroit and San Diego. Yeah, I know that's old Persia, but just illustrative of where Middle Easterners can live.

rosethorn - I was watching this yesterday - Shanghai SE B Shares - for foreigns, crashed 7%:

Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance

The moving avgs and stochastics say something like lok *ut belw.

You may buy a vowel.

C

"The relentless circularity of your statements is frigging insane."

Circular reasoning is how most of us think, unless there's some emergency.

Jim A. wrote:

And even though they've already seen significant declines, IMHO they're likely to Detroit-ize with housing prices dropping below the cost of construction.

Time did an article about Detroit, and even had a fancy chart showing peak population (sometime in the 60's IIRC) but to take it to the next level, showed several other cities on the chart. The only ones I remember were San Diego and Dallas, and both are well past peak population. I think Dallas peaked in the 80's (oil boom perhaps?) but the overall chart made me wonder if all large cities were doomed to become donuts and the suburbs better off than the main city. By better off, I mean beyond housing.

Pretty sure the online version of the article does not show the chart.

I'd like to buy a clue: What does it mean that the direct bidders have dropped in half
1. The total offering is doubled
2. Only half of the usual bidders think they know what the notes are worth.

OT: California is inching toward default

Dan Walters: "This will be one of the bloodiest skirmishes the Capitol has ever seen – with the only option being that the most populous state in the nation default on its debts."

By Feb, we're going to see some fireworks.

My point is that interest rates matter to homebuyer/seller, but less so for the renter. How much contributed capital will matter in higher interest rate scenarios than lower interest rate scenarios. In higher interest rate scenarios, you much have better credit quality than in lower....bottom line, interest rates matter when comparing what you where comparing....

Can't we just inflate the debt away (or into a manageable sum), prop up RE with the new money, and then split the dollar like a stock with a new currency?

Dollar 2.0? 1:2 USD/D20

Then the guy who made 80k makes $160k.
His 1200 SFR in the burbs holds at $400k and saves the banks (and us).

And we can keep the game going?

Or should we just launch WW3, blame our collapse on that, and use creative destruction to reduce the population size, rule the remaining in a police state, and rewrite the world order?

I'd rather inflate.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Circular reasoning is how most of us think, unless there's some emergency.

No wonder we're in an emergency...

Speed wrote:

By Feb, we're going to see some fireworks.

Nah. If I get excited for it, it won't happen so I'm going to be all reverse-psychology on CA so it does blow up.
.
"It's okay, CA. You can make it work again. I know you can."

He is calling on Adidas to reverse its decision and to keep making the uniforms in the USA.

.
So he thinks just maybe Adidas will voluntarily forego increased profits from lower labor costs overseas out of some sense of loyalty to D.C.? He is dumber than I thought, which is really, really hard to do, so kudos to him for that.

the problem that we have with inflating is that Wall Street is skimming too much of the liquidity for itself, leaving a few crumbs for the rest of America.

CaptainMorgan wrote:

By better off, I mean beyond housing.

Imo, American cities exist primary for the benefit of the businesses in the city (with the business insiders - the local nobility - generally owning the politicians). Anything else that happens in the city is generally ancillary (accidental, even). European cities are generally livable because the city attempts to also (to some extent) accommodate its citizens too. So, the donut effect happens here as a result of the citing becoming a disposable item of businesses that own it. All you've go to do is look at the decisions made to physically knockdown cities to make room for freeways in the 50 & 60's (and even today). The neighborhoods that bore the brunt of the destructive impact were expendable to the great good of "society".

Squid roe seem to be perfectly positioned financially & politically. Heads they win, tails you lose.

Deluded Servitude wrote:

I'd rather inflate.

Sounds good. Let's just keep the secret from you know Hu until the plan is hatch tho.

Speed wrote:

GS put the bond sale together in 2008, then promptly shorted it.

No one will make a movie about this period in the future because the lead villain is simply too evil to be believable.

I can imagine my grandkids rolling their eyes at me and accusing me of using excessive hyperbole when discussing the no matter how close to the facts my story lies.

Everyone, including me is begging for some inflation. Methinks the crowd will win.

What this country really needs is a good $10 gallon of milk?

So what happened at 9:57 EST in the equity markets? Looks like vol went dark for 34 minutes.

C

Moldy oldie:

" is angering politicians and public-finance officials in New Jersey, Wisconsin, California and Florida by recommending that investors purchase credit-default swaps to bet against 11 states’ debt."
(Bloom, 2008)

WWD?

No one will make a movie about this period in the future because the lead villain is simply too evil to be believable.

The story was written long ago. Animal Farm, 1984, etc.

gee, ya think

No one needs higher milk prices. People in the know are begging for inflation. It is seen as the only solution to right size the capsized house prices and corresponding capital ratios..It would work too easily with robot tellers governing the outflows to switch the digits overnight.

Withdrawing all your cash beforehand is a dumb strategy anyway. The wise thing to do is convert the cash into something tangible.

More dogpile on

I hate to get sucked into the vampire squid line of thinking about Goldman, but the only explanation i can think of for why AIG got rescued and the monolines did not is because Goldman had significant exposure to AIG and did not have exposure to the monolines.
(Yves)

CR-
Since 23% of recent home sales are for cash, some will be by investors and some from "move-down" buyers that are downsizing.

Perhaps at or near your fingertips...there are stats on "absentee buyers," those that have their tax bill sent to a different address than that of the home purchased. Are these available for CASH BUYERS ONLY to separate out the two types of cash buyers?

Shift happens, and quite often the unthought of consequences of it, are like ticking time bombs set to go off in the future

"Building a police state around the upper crust shouldn't be our default solution.

That already exists. "

Apparently some of us have never experienced a real police state. In such a state, the populace is either crushed by terror or driven mad by chicken shit.

Before the economy went bust, California voters authorized multibillion-dollar charges on the state's infrastructure credit card.

They approved generational investments in roads, schools and levees, as well as hospitals and stem-cell research. At the time, fiscal experts projected that California at most would have to spend roughly 6 percent of its annual budget on payments.

But after an economic collapse, estimates now show that debt service could consume as much as 10 percent of the annual general fund budget by 2014-15 – an "unprecedented" ratio, according to the Legislative Analyst's Office.

404 - Not Found - sacbee.com

shill
if i sent my address would they bring me some gold? dont want those big bulky bars, want lots of shiny bracelets with shiny little charms,and necklaces with lots of charms too.

For Dawg:

Plundering California: How Public-Sector Unions Brought The State To Its Knees  

CaptainMorgan wrote:

only ones I remember were San Diego and Dallas, and both are well past peak population.

Must be some other city. Dallas is still growing, both the City and the County. Dallas (city) QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau

You might be remembering Baltimore, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, or Cleveland, Top 50 Cities in the U.S. by
Population and Rank — Infoplease.com

noob goldberg wrote:

I was thinking 'what's the relationship between interest rate and monthly payment if amortization and principle are fixed?' I was more curious what the shape of that curve might be.

I think you mainly need to rearrange the equation to get your answer. I'll try and remember to fiddle with it over the holiday weekend-

Agreed. We have a snoopy/nosey/clumsy state at the moment, but no one is disappearing in the middle of the night or going from living body to a few remaining appendages.

Without right of correspondence. After all, corpses don't send post cards.

,rad pavel,

Shift has sucked you and I and everybody else into this hangout on the edge of know where, because we are horrified/tantalized by the prospects...

yagij wrote:

The Nipponese may be closer to the end of their public debt rope that they may like. Export markets are slowing down for them just like in China, and they are "enjoying" a stronger currency while they are at it!

Understood; my point is not to deny to eventual outcome, but rather to point out that the statement "That is a bubble that can not go on for too much longer" might be incorrect, depending on how one defines "too much longer", of course-

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

That already exists.

The issue becomes whether the control mechanisms are...explicit rather than internalized, no?

volker the viking wrote:

another quickie wiki

As I pointed out in:
Comment by Cinco-X from thread 'House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent, and Price-to-Income'

....sorry.........I got lost in the Detroit - past and present pic tour..........I think if I were to vote for/against, I'd be in favor of graffiti artists losing a finger everytime they're caught spray-painting something. No courts, no jury, just have the cops or passersby whack off a finger or two - on their non-artistic hand FIRST, of course.

There was a scene in "The Simpsons" where Bart walks by an auction and places the winning bid. When the auctioneer points at him and say "Sold!" he chuckles and leaves the room. Then the auctioneer says, "The winner is now Mr. X, with the second-highest bid". Mr X. chuckles and leaves the room...

Rent-A-Sheriffs replacing the real thing?

Sacramento is playing with fire...

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Sacramento is playing with fire...

Any more dangerous than rent-a-prison?

pavel.chichikov wrote:

or driven mad by chicken shit.

There is an old joke about which part ruled the body. The head said it is I. I decide what we do and where we go. The stomach said It is I digest the food that sustains us all. Every part weighed in with their reasons' Finally the asshole said it is I and everypart laughed at him. So he stopped working for five days then every part agreed he was in charge. As citizens we need to be the asshole.

Democrats push $150B stock tax on Wall Street - TheHill.com

.
Pelosi was quoted in the article as saying something like this would need to be "coordinated with other countries."

WTF?!

Blackhalo wrote:

Any more dangerous than rent-a-prison?

Or rent-a-cop, which is considered normal now.

When politicos usurp power from law enforcement, you start a range war neither can afford to fight...

Grafitti is like seaweed. Rake it away. It comes right back. A new tag appears for every homeless night.

FOMC Minutes: "Unemployment expected to remain elevated for s

some investor guy wrote:

Must be some other city. Dallas is still growing, both the City and the County.

Based on the growth in the 90's I am probably wrong. I looked on Time again, no charts online either.

any college student can guard a prison

I've seen the corrections exam. It comes straight from the 3rd grade.

OT (sort of): New Zealand: Hell Pizza hath no fury like a financier scorned

Hell Pizza hath no fury like a financier scorned | Stuff.co.nz

Troubled finance group Hanover is accusing Hell Pizza of positioning a mobile billboard mocking Mark Hotchin outside his six-year-old daughter's school.

Hell put the face of Mr Hotchin, Hanover's co-founder, on a billboard next to the word Greed, the name of one of its pizzas. This week it drove the billboard around Auckland and parked it outside the $30 million home that Mr Hotchin is having built.

another google
144a market

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

It's unbelievable NOW to a majority of the peasantry because believing it would destroy one of the fundamental mythologies of Merica.

I don't know what happened to my hoocoodanode connection, but I was cut off there for an hour or so.

Had I been here, I would have responded by saying that whenever I've discussed the current situation with someone, and gotten them to realize the sorry state of affairs, the look of dismay was palpable. And after attempting to think through the implications of that state of affairs, they worked as feverishly as possible to fix those blinders back to their head. No one likes what they see when the curtain is pulled back.