Case Shiller Home Price Graphs

OT:
Felix Salmon » Blog Archive » The role of the database in the financial crisis | Blogs |
The development of a good relational database design relies on the sort of cooperative effort that only exists in a handful of companies. That’s because extracting all the information from the involved parties is a daunting task. The rule of thumb is that it can represent upwards of 85% of the effort involved in re-engineering a corporation’s data assets, while the actual code to accomplish the job accounts for less than one-fifth of the work

I can second this. Comprehensive Databases of CDS/MBS components were non existent. In extension any pricing model (e.g. Copulas) are useless as they dont have the representative inputs. Garbage in Garbage out.

1 in 4 mortgages 'underwater'
Report shows 10.7 million borrowers are stuck with mortgages whose property values are less than what the they owe.

Underwater mortgages: 1 in 4 in negative equity - Nov. 24, 2009

sbarrkum wrote:

Felix Salmon » Blog Archive » The role of the database in the financial crisis | Blogs |

Linky for above. and Nemo ?
Reuters.com

Nice work CR, Kudoes.

I've uncorked some Doom Pérignon, if anybody would care to imbibe (holds out tray of looking glasses...)

Siamese fighting fish, fascinating creatures. Brave but of the whole stupid. Yes they're stupid. Except for the occasional one such as we have here who lets the other two fight. While he waits. Waits until the survivor is so exhausted that he cannot defend himself, and then like SPECTRE... he strikes!

The BEST Bond film. Just watched it a couple of nights ago.

I'd like to see a line on the cumulative declines from peak by city chart that shows the country as a whole. This would help clearly identify the bubble areas. For instance, at -7.7%, I'd guess that Denver is no worse off than the country as a whole, and might actually be better off.

Cinco-X wrote:

I'd guess that Denver is no worse off than the country as a whole

Maybe, maybe not. More markets are flat or slightly up than are down. The magnitude of the move in the already listed bubble states skews the problem and sucks all the air out of the room.

Will it spread? I dunno, maybe, maybe not.

Elmo! out of the gate fast. Today's numbers not greenshooty enough?

profit taking

Thr u go folks.....522 troubled banks Smile

This is getting to be funny...

My target is 1800 banks to bankrupt....

When I wrote that report troubled banks were 100 and some on this forum had evinced their complete disbelief at my number.....Folks now we are moving at an accelrated speed. Smile

1800 banks to fail

profit taking

You are being too rational. Down today because of the butterfly that flapped its wings in the Caymans.

As long as their forowonkay is going up in value, the hoi ploy is a docile creature.

As someone who lives in Dallas, has recently been shopping for a home in Dallas, and is a total stickler for data, I don't believe the Dallas numbers. Unless CS has a different database than what is available to realtors or the Assessor, the optional disclosure here is causing real problems. For example, see More Dallas home sales prices kept secret |
News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News
| Latest News

In addition to the spin in that article, in my humble opinion, realtors and others in real estate have big incentives not to show actual sales prices for units which would destroy the comps. Still prices are descending at the high end. I have an accepted offer for about 1/3 off of peak on a mid level condo. Same story for single family homes over about $500k.

I predict Obama will preside over 15% Unemployment. 21st Century Hoover.

bearly wrote:

I predict Obama will preside over 15% Unemployment. 21st Century Hoover.

He already does, according to the U6.

OT
Economy Is Forcing Young Adults Back Home in Big Numbers, Survey Finds - NY Times

I see what CR means by household formation; when grown kids move back home or postpone marriage, its household contraction I suppose!

November 24, 2009
Economy Is Forcing Young Adults Back Home in Big Numbers, Survey Finds
By SAM ROBERTS

For more young adults, there is no place like home for the holidays, and for the rest of the year, too. Ten percent of adults younger than 35 told the Pew Research Center that they had moved back in with their parents because of the recession.

They also blamed the economy for other lifestyle decisions. Twelve percent had gotten a roommate to share expenses. Fifteen percent said they had postponed getting married, and 14 percent said they had delayed having a baby.

In the Pew study, 13 percent of parents with grown children said one of their adult sons or daughters had moved back home in the past year. According to Pew, of all grown children who lived with their parents, 2 in 10 were full-time students, one-quarter were unemployed and about one-third said they had lived on their own before returning home.

According to the census, 56 percent of men 18 to 24 years old and 48 percent of women were either still under the same roof as their parents or had moved back home.

A smaller share of 16-to-24-year-olds — 46 percent — is currently employed than at any time since the government began collecting that data in 1948.

Meanwhile, the portion of adults 18 to 29 who lived alone declined to 7.3 percent in 2009 from 7.9 percent in 2007, according to the Current Population Survey. A decline that big was recorded only twice before over three decades, in the early 1980s and the early 1990s during or after recessions.

I'd like to see a line on the cumulative declines from peak by city chart that shows the country as a whole.

Ask, and you shall receive ...

http://www.ihsglobalinsight.com/gcpath/2Q2009ValuationReportjd4.pdf
(In case you couldn't tell from the extension - this is a PDF.)

The "splash page" link is http://www.ihsglobalinsight.com/housingvaluation.

And, while it's tough to extrapolate "percent off peak" from the limited data set they provide in this report, yes, it appears Denver is holding up significantly better than the mean.

This just got added to my list of worrisome trends are not your friends list:

From here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/175029-what-will-the-q3-fdic-quarterly-banking-profile-report

People's United Financial to Acquire Financial Federal Corp

People’s United (PBCT) will pay $738 million for Financial Federal, which is not an FDIC-insured financial institution. Perhaps this is a new trend, where community and regional banks buy financial companies such as credit unions to dilute bad assets and place the purchased deposits under the guarantee of the FDIC. I have not seen a statement from the FDIC on this transaction.

Mike_ wrote:

You are being too rational. Down today because of the butterfly that flapped its wings in the Caymans.

Not according to CNBC.

(I've seen the light!)

The double-dip in home prices won't be pretty. Either will the triple dip.

Baltic Dry Index is also taking profit today.

Off the wire this morning:
FDIC Deposit fund had negative $8.2B balance in Q3
That's broke. Bankrupt. Kaput. Gone. Poof. Dead. Rotting. A corpse.
Yes, yes, I know, Treasury has their back. But let's not forget - The FDIC does not have a legal "full faith and credit" guarantee from the US Federal Government and Treasury.

Cinco--not arguing, but they have 38b in set asides so relax, all is well

besides, they're jacking up the assessments

40K troops and pleas for more patience.

Pathetic.

volker the viking (profile) wrote on Tue, 11/24/2009 - 6:17 pm
Deadly flu spreads across Ukraine | zero hedge

It's just a simple D225G mutation, the same as in Norway.

gaby--I'll eat a bug if it happens Dec 1.

SNAFU wrote:

A smaller share of 16-to-24-year-olds — 46 percent — is currently employed than at any time since the government began collecting that data in 1948.

That cannot end well.

The bad news for issuers and users of bank-issued credit cards have also impacted retailer issued cards: CreditCards.com survey: Retail credit cards boost rates, cut rewards

The military-industrial-complex is our bright spot, financially.

If we don't perpetuate war, their profits are going to plunge, earnings & such.

to call an observable evolution a 'simple...mutation' is to say that you aren't paying attention

gabyjan wrote:

Afghan troops announcement likely Dec. 1 - washingtonpost.com

A surtax on the wealthy to fight a pointless war in the wilderness. This should end well.

energyecon wrote:

That cannot end well

Sure it can. Fine time to have kids.

Wait is today Friday Grade ????

energyecon wrote:

That cannot end well.

Only if the Internet is shut off.

probably get pushed forward/back cause hes got that job thingie, did the extendobenefits etc ever get passed or is the senatecritters still studing on it? just curious.

sbarrkum wrote:

sbarrkum wrote:

Felix Salmon » Blog Archive » The role of the database in the financial crisis | Blogs |

Linky for above. and Nemo ?
Felix Salmon » Blog Archive » The role of the database in the financial crisis | Blogs |

Amen!

Of all the millions of dollars being spent worldwide on Basel II, it is estimated that 85% of the cost is for data assets!

Obama to do list:
Dec send 40k more troops to the Stan.
Jan sell stealth fighters to the Middle-East.
Feb accept Nobel Peace Prize.

More evidence that the banks are selling everything that is not nailed down in their quest to raise capital: "The Bank of Montreal said on Tuesday that it has agreed to buy Citigroup's Diners Club North American franchise"

noob goldberg wrote:

Only if the Internet is shut off.

Haha! Excellent point, noob - digital soma, baby - waittasec...

Honest... I ran out of gas. I, I had a flat tire. I didn't have enough money for cab fare. My tux didn't come back from the cleaners. An old friend came in from out of town. Someone stole my car. There was an earthquake. A terrible flood. Locusts. IT WASN'T MY FAULT, I SWEAR TO GOD.

,rad Dawgma,

Would it be fair to have a one-word-fits-all descriptor for our series of misadventures militarily overseas, far, far away?

'Stanistan'

Armageddon will not not be reported in the MSM but it will be blogged in real time.

Terry wrote:

More evidence that the banks are selling everything that is not nailed down in their quest to raise capital: "The Bank of Montreal said on Tuesday that it has agreed to buy Citigroup's Diners Club North American franchise"

OK. I'll bite. If one bank is selling its assets to another bank, how is capital being raised? Doesn't this net to zero (or a little less due to fees and frictional costs)?

rob dawg
i thought it said
fed accept nobel peace prize
made me wonder,it did

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Would it be fair to have a one-word-fits-all descriptor for our series of misadventures militarily overseas, far, far away?

Dinnaunnerstan?

Rob Dawg wrote:

Feb accept Nobel Peace Prize.

Useless trivia: Prize is awarded on Dec 10, Alfred's day of passing.

Terry wrote:

More evidence that the banks are selling everything that is not nailed down in their quest to raise capital: "The Bank of Montreal said on Tuesday that it has agreed to buy Citigroup's Diners Club North American franchise"

Canadian banks haven't yet realized that they are going to need to boost their reserves also. They're viewing this temporary change in fortunes as an expansion opportunity, a move they'll most likely end up regretting.

Situation Update No. 48
On 23.11.2009 at 03:47 GMT+2

According to analysis of genetic testing done by the World Health Organization, the Ukraine flu virus is an H1N1 mutation that is similar to the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic. The two flu virus outbreaks both have changes in the receptor binding domain D225G, and similar symptoms, which include bleeding in the lungs. Current estimates of the deaths attributed to the Ukraine flu outbreak is as many as 400, and increasing daily.

Spanish flu pandemic

In 1918, the Spanish flu pandemic killed between 20 million and 40 million people. The pandemic took place during the end of World War I, but ten times as many Americans died from the Spanish Flu as died in the war - nearly 700,000. The most severely struck regions were in areas of high humidity. Some speculation existed that the Spanish flu was an early attempt at a biological weapon due to the extremely high death rate, and symptoms that included bleeding in the lungs.

H1N1 Mutation in the Ukraine

The H1N1 mutation in the Ukraine also includes the symptoms of bleeding in the lungs, and has been described as an infection that completely destroys the lungs. The receptor binding proteins present in the Spanish flu and in swine flu mutations that result in bleeding lungs and death are the same. A virus attaches to charged molecules on cells. Some attach to proteins and others to lipids, but the type of molecule differs between viruses.

The virus samples analyzed by the World Health Organization from the Ukraine flu showed a different receptor binding pattern than the original swine flu virus, but the same as the receptor binding pattern as the 1918 Spanish flu.

It seems as of late that every Monday the world is doing great and we are on the way to recovery, only to have our world torn apart come Tuesday morning. These numbers today are truly sobering, but to the Wall Street crowd they are 100 percent overlooked. I pity the poor souls caught in this market when the bottom falls out. It will make the fall of Lehman, the corresponding tanking of the markets look like a minor correction, compared to what is coming.

some investor guy wrote:

OK. I'll bite. If one bank is selling its assets to another bank, how is capital being raised? Doesn't this net to zero (or a little less due to fees and frictional costs)?

In this case, BOM does not have the capital problems of Citi. Many of the transactions are being done with PE investors. This one happened to be a foreign bank.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Would it be fair to have a one-word-fits-all descriptor for our series of misadventures militarily overseas, far, far away?

That word is "overreach." The same as it is for every empire in sunset. That we found ourselves the only accidental and/or reluctant empire appears to have made no difference.

volker the viking wrote:

Cinco--not arguing, but they have 38b in set asides so relax, all is well besides, they're jacking up the assessments

I presume this is regarding the FDIC; I was just passing along KD's rantings. It's always fun, and sometimes informative-

energyecon wrote:

A smaller share of 16-to-24-year-olds — 46 percent — is currently employed

Nice. 16-24 year olds can't even afford free lunch.

Another prediction: ALL of Obama's initiatives FAIL beginning now.

Public health significance of virus mutation detected in Norway
Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 briefing note 17
20 NOVEMBER 2009 | GENEVA -- The Norwegian Institute of Public Health has informed WHO of a mutation detected in three H1N1 viruses. The viruses were isolated from the first two fatal cases of pandemic influenza in the country and one patient with severe illness.

Norwegian scientists have analysed samples from more than 70 patients with clinical illness and no further instances of this mutation have been detected. This finding suggests that the mutation is not widespread in the country.

Related links

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009

The virus with this mutation remains sensitive to the antiviral drugs, oseltamivir and zanamivir, and studies show that currently available pandemic vaccines confer protection.

Worldwide, laboratory monitoring of influenza viruses has detected a similar mutation in viruses from several other countries, with the earliest detection occurring in April. In addition to Norway, the mutation has been observed in Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, Ukraine, and the US.

Although information on all these cases is incomplete, several viruses showing the same mutation were detected in fatal cases, and the mutation has also been detected in some mild cases. Worldwide, viruses from numerous fatal cases have not shown the mutation. The public health significance of this finding is thus unclear.

The mutations appear to occur sporadically and spontaneously. To date, no links between the small number of patients infected with the mutated virus have been found and the mutation does not appear to spread.

The significance of the mutation is being assessed by scientists in the WHO network of influenza laboratories. Changes in viruses at the genetic level need to be constantly monitored. However, the significance of these changes is difficult to assess. Many mutations do not alter any important features of the virus or the illness it causes. For this reason, WHO also uses clinical and epidemiological data when making risk assessments.

Although further investigation is under way, no evidence currently suggests that these mutations are leading to an unusual increase in the number of H1N1 infections or a greater number of severe or fatal cases.

Laboratories in the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network closely monitor influenza viruses worldwide and will remain vigilant for any further changes in the virus that may have public health significance.
WHO | Public health significance of virus mutation detected in Norway

shill
thats okay it will probably be all Green Shoots by market close

Mistake-istan

bearly wrote:

Another prediction: ALL of Obama's initiatives FAIL beginning now.

Amazing how mainstream that sounds today. A year ago it was met with derision despite hindsight showing clearly that the FAIL was baked in even then.

We had the best army money could buy, and our troops looked so impressive in their uniforms, especially so to all of our adversaries, none of which had identifying labels on their person.

You would have thought we would have learned our lesson in Vietnam, about fighting an unidentified foe, but apparently not so.

I'm sure you are all aware that the CDC gene sequenced the 1918 virus in 2005.
Tinfoil Hat

The US doesn't stand a chance waging a 4th generation war.

The folks over at PMI don't think this is a bottom. I received a quote on a 5% down loan for $400K and the PMI was in the mid $500 range per month.

volker the viking wrote:

Deadly flu spreads across Ukraine | zero hedge

You linked THAT without a serious Tinfoil Hat warning!
Wink

shill wrote:

It will make the fall of Lehman, the corresponding tanking of the markets look like a minor correction, compared to what is coming.

I don't know what makes me sadder: the frightening unwind of the speculative leveraged market, or the fact that CR is going to be inundated with thousands of panicked newbies and we'll lose our ability to have these pleasant exchanges.

Nice little gem from the European CDC latest update (under 'Other News' on page 2):

Four patients at Duke University Medical Center in Durham, N.C., who developed influenza in October, were found to have oseltamivir resistant Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)v. The cluster was detected when the patients did not respond to oseltamivir treatment. Three of the four patients have died.

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/Documents/091124_Influenza_AH1N1_Situation_Report_0900hrs.pdf

Mistake-istan

Can someone explain to me why this is a "necessary" war? Saying it over and over does NOT make it so.

I was thinking Canada might be Obama's 57th state.

It isn't just the arms division of the military-industrial-complex that is profiting from war, it's also the distribution channels, and there's a lot of money riding on that...

Angry Saver wrote:

Can someone explain to me why this is a "necessary" war? Saying it over and over does NOT make it so.

Pakistan - nukes - India - nukes - zelots get control of Pakistan nukes - BOOM!!!

homeGnome
what if our debtors would forgive payments if we stayed there to"protect and whats important(oil poppy)
edited for Tinfoil Hat

Mspeed wrote:

I received a quote on a 5% down loan for $400K and the PMI was in the mid $500 range per month

Funny. I have a $400k property (I'm sellin') in escrow, $0 DOWN. VA (YOU!) are pickin' up $500/mo the insurance.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

I was thinking Canada might be Obama's 57th state.

He'd have to fight the queen for us.

Which would make for a fantastic pay-per-view Friday night.

The FDIC fund that insures bank deposits is $8.2 billion in the hole. The FDIC had to set aside $21.7 billion for expected losses on future bank failures as the total number of "problem" banks rose to 552 from 416.

Pakistan - nukes - India - nukes - zelots get control of Pakistan nukes - BOOM!!!

I don't buy it. Antagonizing people and meddling in Afghanistan will not un-ring the nuclear bells in India and Pakistan.

Just got a call from a Jamacain women who said I won 2.5 million from some contest I did not enter and there would be two people to escort me to my bank to deposit it for a 895 handling fee. I got pissed and hung up but I should have called the police

shill wrote:

Pay Extra Close Attention to the Dollar -- Seeking Alpha

I love seeing the USD/JPY cross getting whipsawed every day. We tend to have an 89 handle when the Nipponese are awake and tend to have an 88 handle when the Americans are awake. Competitive devaluing at its finest? Puzzled

volker the viking (profile) wrote on Tue, 11/24/2009 - 6:17 pm
Deadly flu spreads across Ukraine | zero hedge

I'm really starting question whether or not ZH has good information. This article on flu in Ukraine is terrible.

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