It's times like this that millions are grateful they took all that dead money sitting in house equity and invested it in high yielding granite counter tops.
This seems to go against the TransUnion report this morning that showed serious delinquencies falling. the key difference is the TU report was about 90+ day delinquent accounts (1.10% in 3Q down from 1.17% in 2Q, and 1.09% a year ago). More people missing short term, ie 30 days past due, fewer blowing off CC bills altogether.
Perhaps "this Xmas" ends the "pretend"; for the bull and the bears. If it's down 10% it'll be tough for the MSM hopium smokers to keep up the chant of green shoots. If the sales come in flat or even down 1% (?) the bears are probably wrong and the country muddles through on the perpetual debt supplied by Hu.
mail from two CC companies last week; Citi jacked my rate to 22.9%, Chase encouraged me to use their checks and take a vacation. nice of them to give me an opt out though.
Write-offs may peak at 12 percent to 13 percent in 2010
Yeah, but that's because the CC companies will have finally slowed down lending to people that can't pay it back. It would be interesting to see the total $$ figure charged on cards vs time.
This seems to go against the TransUnion report this morning that showed serious delinquencies falling. the key difference is the TU report was about 90+ day delinquent accounts (1.10% in 3Q down from 1.17% in 2Q, and 1.09% a year ago). More people missing short term, ie 30 days past due, fewer blowing off CC bills altogether.
Also, Moodys was one month (October vs. September), and TU was Q3 vs. Q2.
I skimmed the Black Friday pre-releases,...I don't think they'll bring in higher traffic numbers or sales.
I've seen lots of featured ads for flat screen TVs, but I'd still consider those a big ticket item compared to the $25 DVD player you end up being trampled for at Wal-Mart. And, the DTV conversion earlier this year probably pulled forward a lot of demand for new TVs.
Sales tax revenue has continued to remain well off all year. Having said that it would not surprise me for your prediction to be true for (some of) the major chains - but at the expense of the small guy who gets blown out.
Does anyone default without having maxed out the limit?
Prior to the bankruptcy reform, you bet they maxed out the cards prior to BK. After the reform, more debtors are forced to file a Ch 13, so they usually have to pay something on the CC debt unless they are out of work and can file the Ch7.
Sales tax revenue has continued to remain well off all year.
I have been struggling with the fact that sales tax collections are down more than sales. I have no idea if this relates to more retailers not remitting the sales tax to the states, or if more buyers are shopping on line and not paying sales tax. Some other factor?
Some small retailers have a choice, make payroll or pay sales tax. They are thinking they can make up the tax with holiday sales. Not going to happen. When the doors close and the past employees file taxes is when they learn that none of the Fed tax, FICA etc was paid either.
(Seriously OT) What to know what kind of would bring true fear and capitulation to my family law tainted heart? This scenario.
Rom Houben was misdiagnosed as being in a vegetative state after a car crash left him totally paralysed. For the whole time, he was trapped in his own body with no way of letting friends and family know he could hear every word they were saying. The 46-year-old, who can now tap out computerised messages and read books on a device above his hospital bed, has revealed: "I screamed, but there was nothing to hear.
'Some Parallels Between Currency and banking Crisis'
'Indeed, the government assets backing the exchange rate and bank deposits can ultimately be the same assets.
Once the asset backing is gone, or the government chooses to halt its further depletion, price-fixing schemes collapse.'
Hadn't thought about that. When a higher percent of income goes to nontaxed food, less is spent on taxable items. It could be a simple as that in some states.
yep. sales tax collection is a huge problem for the states right now, simply because too many merchants are commingling funds for operations. a tax preparer i know has been bombarded with nasty letters from the state, telling her to remind all clients of the deadline. wouldn't surprise me if states start to move towards prepay, though that would be the end of a lot of merchants.
Brick & mortar rigis. It was a 1-2 combo punch that did them in, online competition and the great unravelling of business, in the early 21st century. Strangely enough, the online retailers mostly went out of business as well also, until there was just one store to buy things from, the G.U.M. in the central city.
energyecon, re: last thread, JPM's pulse index
I did mention that it is composed of the biggest online retailers. Which is worth something in itself.
One theme we have seen is the new success is just surviving, while others are being squeezed out. If the larger retailers are holding steady within a shrinking market, that means the brunt is being felt by the smaller businesses.
Another aspect could be the shifting of retail sales from physical taxed sales to online tax-free sales
What it means to me is that those anticipating a gangbusters retail season after 2 years of savings-ennui, are demonstrably wrong.
On the positive side of YoY flat sales is the warm-fuzzy target for this year in my opinion.
transunion strong point is Texas market...I wouldn't read to much into what they say outside of texas market.....most people who use credit reports are not big fans of TU
I did mention that it is composed of the biggest online retailers. Which is worth something in itself.
Could that introduce modeling error? Where increases due to survivor bias are attributed to sales growth? Thus, the aggregate is in distinct decline while the sampled sub-set show increases...
Waking up with a cougar in Vegas and a marriage certificate?
pshaw. That wouldn't even make me blink. I can work my way around a Vegas-style "Uh no" quite easily. Besides she may be the one to wake up, see me, and bring true fear to her heart. Especially if she has money and she signed the prenupt I drafted...
it is amazing that the government is typically the low man on the creditor totem pole.
Not a tax lawyer, but I am sure some states pin the business owers personally for not remitting the sales taxes. Of course, that is the case for payroll withholdings, too.
as long as we're trying to fence in the answer, what about small retailers who are collecting sales tax but failing to pay it to the taxing authority on time because they dipped into that to meet payroll or an order for inventory?
It's a big gap though, is it a thousand little things like failure to collect sales taxes or is it a smaller number of big impacts like internet/food sales tax exemptions, or data with poor accuracy?
what about small retailers who are collecting sales tax but failing to pay it to the taxing authority on time because they dipped into that to meet payroll or an order for inventory?
They would be complete idiots is my first thought, but it depends on the setup and the state. I would imagine inter-mingling state taxes with private funds willingly would be like messing with an escrow account. It works until it doesn't, and when it doesn't, the buck is going to stop on the owner's head.
I was out where Jesus lost his sandals, on Hwy 58 in the high desert of the Mojave, when I passed a gas station with a sign that has those changeable letters-like the numbers on the sign that gives the different prices for gasoline, and it proclaimed:
what about small retailers who are collecting sales tax
Let's not forget that small retailers are not tax collectors; they are paying the tax and passing the cost on to the consumer. I believe there's a legal point that needs to be finessed there.
If'n I was a small retailer that was on the verge of not making it like all of em' are, i'd consider using the 10% loan from the state in the guise of tax collections not passed on, if push>met<shove.
yagij
There are reports of borrowing from taxes owed, just like some state governments are doing for their own obligations. It remains to be seen how deep and broad these practices are. It is a logical response to a sudden drop in sales, with promises of Valhalla just one more month away. It now rests on ponzi. In response to the question what lies beneath that ponzi: it is ponzis all the way down
anyone care to speculate how much is failure to pay taxes+fees on time, and how much is never intending to pay them at all?
If I were a contractor who had struggled with black market competition during the boom years, I probably would gleefully not pay any requested taxes during the lean times. Nothing to lose at this point, other than the ability to put food on the table for now. Without moving to the black market, there might not be a job at all
"Meredith Whitney came out this week and said that since the stock market highs last year, there has been $1.5 trillion of available credit removed from the consumers, and she went on to say that another $1.2 trillion more will evaporate. This has, and will, continue to hamper consumer spending"
In the Wall*Street version, it doesn't matter how the dice roll, you just have the Fed loan you 10x the amount of money outstanding on the table, and end up owning everything.
In the regular version when one player wins all the assets, everybody is usually tired and goes to bed. The winner always had to put the game away, in our household.
The consequences for failing to remit sales taxes or payroll withholding taxes are usually quite severe. It will mostly be done by people who are very ignorant or very desperate. Fortunately we have a large supply of both in America.
wouldn't surprise me if states start to move towards prepay,
I have heard, though I can't confirm, that the State of California has done some preliminary work with CC companies towards having the sales tax portion of a CC sale sent directly to the state, not to the merchant's account, once the transaction clears.
All it would take is inputting the sales number and tax number separately. Certainly the technology is there to do it now.
I wonder if a "brain scanner machine" can see Yes's and No's? If so, wouldn't it be great to start selling "kits" to prevent you (and your loved ones) from being trapped in a "vegetative state" inside your own skull? I'm thinking, for only $29.99 a month (for 6 months), we could "create" something that would allow you (or your loved one) to train their brain to generate Yes & No signals which could be picked up by a "brain scanner machine". You'd never need to worry about being trapped in a "vegetative state" again.
This offer is not available in any stores. Operator are standing by. The first 20 callers receive a free copy of "The Illustrative guide to do-it-yourself brain surgery".
Josap, I am afraid you are right. Afraid because failing to make the employer matching and doing withholding properly is often criminal with an average federal prison sentence of 17 months. Many small retailers don't understand why payroll witholding and employer matching is taken so seriously -- it is THE primary point of collection for federal taxes.
What happens in a game of monopoly when one player wins all the assets?
It never get's that far. The players start arguing and accusing each other of cheating. Eventually, the guy playing the bank win anyway because he's slowly taking money out of the tiller while the others are arguing.
The other players throw away what little money they had left and play another game, while the monopolist is left holding worthless scraps of paper.
The game ends, play is no longer possible, because no one has assets to contribute to the play except the winner. The more closely we approach that outcome the more critical the situation. In real life the winners may be a select group, or the state. But according to the rules of the game in any mass society so far this outcome is possible.
My mom and grandmom has a metal card that was good for the big
5 department stores in Baltimore. It had to be paid the following
month. I'm pretty sure they had this in the 40s.
You imprinted the slip by smashing it down in this machine with a handle.
Where do I send a thank you letter for GE? Is it the White House, or some e-mail list? I wouldn't think it appropriate to send it to Immelt considering GE the company isn't paying the $700k towards rink refurbishment in exchange for advertising/space rental CBC News - British Columbia - Vancouver's Robson Square skating rink reopens
In real life the winners may be a select group, or the state.
No economic system has a pleasant reset button. Only the"flip the monopoly board up in the air and pull out the six-shooters" ending (usually after the camera shows close-ups of the players eyes, real quick. Need good music too).
Northeastern ends football after 74 seasons - College Football - Rivals.com
I expect there will be a few more stories like this.
Ahh one of the many institutions of higher education that ultimately suggested i pursue academic excellence elsewhere.
Reading the article is an exercise in reading twixt the lines. Ultimately it was about money. $4m per year. That's probably as much as they spend on white glazed bricks.
IMO, an early indicator of the higher ed bubble popping.
Well if enough small retailers don't send on the taxes,
will it turn out like uncollectible mortgages? Not that I
am saying that anybody should do this.
My hub prosecuted a gas station owner who didn't send on the taxes.
"Can't the "winner" loan the other players assets with a lien on their future earnings?"
Yes. But will future earnings suffice to pay off the loan? That depends on variables, such as technological and scientific innovation, educational opportunity, social stability, expansion of markets, demographic increase, developments in exploitation of resources, administrative efficiency, et. al. A mass society is not a simple machine.
Saw a show last night about a mob guy from NYC who ended up in Miami. Made a fortune by opening a series of gasoline wholesalers who didn't pay their gas taxes. Said he just did one after another and went out of business. At one point was skimming 8 or 9 million dollars a week in taxes he didn't pay on to the state. Got the Key to the City from the Mayor of Miami before they finally caught up to him after about a decade of the scam. RICO conviction I think.
Well if enough small retailers don't send on the taxes,
will it turn out like uncollectible mortgages?
Sometimes; in this area I've heard of restaurant owner in particular being late on paying meal taxes, and getting large portions of the tax due written down. Same characters seem to do it over and over, and the dept. of rev. seems to be glad to collect whatever they can. Probably a payoff going on, but that part doesn't get into the news.
"Can't the "winner" loan the other players assets with a lien on their future earnings?"
Yes. But will future earnings suffice to pay off the loan? That depends on variables, such as technological and scientific innovation, educational opportunity, social stability, expansion of markets, demographic increase, developments in exploitation of resources, administrative efficiency, et. al. A mass society is not a simple machine
I was trying to relate things to our present situation; looks like you did a better job than I-
But will future earnings suffice to pay off the loan?
It would require jobs too. The non-winners would need jobs to pay the interest payments to the final winner. Unless we can find somebody to lends us some money. Hu would do that...
Monopoly allows mortgages, but when I was a kid, house rule
was we didn't do that. In the game, if you had to pay a mortgage,
you were a loser already.
We used to call it monotony, but it's still around!!
Unless the winner can create a story for the losers. It would have to be REALLY good story, believable to the losers. About how the winner is really winning for everybody. Na... that could NEVER work, could it?
Son, I know we put your older brother through college, but times have changed. We can't get another loan on the house, mom's hours at work have been cut and the credit card payment doubled. So you will either have to work to pay for your education or get a loan on your own.
Kid: Well, there aren't many jobs. How much would I have to borrow?
Dad: About $160,000.00 total.
Son: But, but - I could by the REO across the street for that!!!! I'm just going to get a job at the fast food place and use the FTHB credit to buy the house.
Dad: Good plan son. This spring when the house payments increase your mom and I will need a place to move into.
Unless the winner can create a story for the losers. It would have to be REALLY good story, believable to the losers. About how the winner is really winning for everybody. Na... that could NEVER work, could it?
"Hey guys,, guys calm down. I don't have to win. We'll take turns winning. I'll win for a bit and then Barry can win for a while. The Banker will make sure it is all on the up and up." "Gee, Georgie, that sounds swell."
In the 70s I played monopoly with some communists from
somewhere in the Soviet Union. Probably Lithuanian diplomats,
since it was at a Lithuanian's friend's house.
They were eager to play this capitalist game, since it was forbidden
at home.
They were truly appalled at our cut-throatedness. I think they
thought it was rude.
That was called a charge card. Originally, stores knew their customers; the better customers would have an account and they could put purchases on their account and pay it at their convenience. When the number of customers grew larger and they didn't know them all by name, they invented the charge card, which allowed them to track the account number of the customer; they could then send regular statements. Charge cards were still the stores extending credit. You had to establish credit with each store (though often stores would work together to simply the experience for the customers.) The stores don't get paid for their merchandise until the customer writes the check.
With the credit card, a bank extends the credit to the consumer, the store gets paid for their good very quickly by the bank. The bank takes the risk of late payments or defaults and usually charges a transaction fee to the store.
Today's latest installment of Crush your Creditors(tm)
Got Chase on the phone and tried to get a discounted payoff, no dice, instead, they extended and pretended and cut my monthly payment on the closed account to 2% per year on a 5 year payout! W00T!!!
Can you say cheaper interest and much longer terms?
Plus no taxable event. Plus my monthly is now 36% of what it was before the phone call!!!
In Florida Chase is suing people like crazy. People
who didn't make a settlement with them.
Florida and CaLi seem like different worlds. We've got high unemployment YOU'VE got high unemployment. Our housing prices go up, yours go down. We have loans, you don't. Thing are still nice and relaxed out here. Oh sure, a few students occupying buildings, but you could see they were happy and smiling (upper-class "outrage").
Reading the article is an exercise in reading twixt the lines. Ultimately it was about money. $4m per year. That's probably as much as they spend on white glazed bricks.
IMO, an early indicator of the higher ed bubble popping.
My take was quite the opposite. It is pretending to kill something that will cause large donations to "save".
have heard, though I can't confirm, that the State of California has done some preliminary work with CC companies towards having the sales tax portion of a CC sale sent directly to the state, not to the merchant's account, once the transaction clears.
The IRS wants the CC companies to report merchant card sales so they can make sure the merchants are paying all the federal taxes that are owed.
Client who went to a hearing for his mom, said that they were suing
left and right, even people who only owed $300.00.
I wonder if some out of luck lawyer hasn't "bought up" delinquent accounts and is suing to get whatever he can. I can't see how Chase could pay a in-house lawyer to do that and expect to come out ahead.
I am lawyer in Texas. I represent a lot of federally insured financial institutions these days in collections suits. Background is partner in biglaw doing corporate securities/corporate finance deals up to half a billion in transaction value, some securitizations, but not many. Can't believe lawyers or law firms would take such suits.
Also, last year moved my business accounts to chase and immediately got a hundred grand line of credit. I think I have put maybe 5 and on it once or twice. Honestly, I don't even think they ran a credit report. Credit analysis was non-existent in my case, but I suppose they were pretty well cash collateralized as they could offset my deposit accounts.
In CaLi? I don't see it. There are still restaurants opening in the college town I live in. Somebody is STILL doing restaurant loans. One opened 3 weeks ago. Converted two story house in the downtown area. Place is huge (and packed).
Spunkmeyer wrote on Thu, 11/5/2009 - 10:03 pm Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote: | How does it work if the kids and grand kids live at home with the Boomers? I guess they take turns not paying the mortgage.
this was many years ago. He has a JD and a PHD both (he was threatening to
go for a med degree, but I put my foot down). He worked for Janet Reno, who is
both honest and fearsomely intelligent. He got to hate judges and what he did
and went back to science.
My little stint on the wagon didn't last long. Mrs. Angry said I was a boring dinner date. Anyway, I've always preferred BYO restaurants - you get to drink exactly what you want without paying an arm and a leg. Ever since the financial crisis hit last fall, all my BYO joints have been packed.
My first credit was at the drug / sundry store in town.
They put your name on an 3 X 5 card. Wrote down what you bought and what you owned.
Subtracted what you paid. No interest, no docs. Same for the feed store.
No Chase, either a separate firm who is at the Chase number, no
kidding, or in house lawyers. Really. When I was helping a lady whose
SS they garnished, (a no-no), I called a lot before straightening it out.
Bottom line was Wa-Mu employee couldn't read the new computer
screens at chase.
The disconnect between reported retail sales numbers and retail sales taxes collected is purely due to survivorship bias.
Only those stores that are still in business report their sales, so their sales are up due to more customers per store. HOWEVER, total sales are still down. Everyone's still paying their taxes because it's practically a felony not to.
This one is going to hurt: "Freddie Mac could be exposed to more than $1 billion in potential losses from the failure of Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp. and Colonial Bank, the company disclosed Monday in a securities filing."
Client who went to a hearing for his mom, said that they were suing
left and right, even people who only owed $300.00.
Don't mess with Chase!! Maybe that's the point
Chase gets my vote for the Ebenezer Scrooge Award this year. But they may luck out:
Cinderella story. Outta nowhere. A former greenskeeper, now, about to become the Masters champion. It looks like a mirac... It's in the hole! It's in the hole! It's in the hole!
anyone care to speculate how much is failure to pay taxes+fees on time, and how much is never intending to pay them at all?
I had a friend in CA that had to do a personal bankruptcy years ago because of a business failure. He hadn't kept up the payments to the state's Employment Development Dept for state withholding. Five years after the BK had been discharged the EDD was still after him, with liens, garnishing wages, threatening letters, endless phone calls, etc.
Moral of story: always pay the taxing authorities BEFORE ANYONE ELSE. They are relentless blood sucking vampire squid that never die.
Get dinner, Liz. I just cooked and ate a heaping plate of fresh broccoli, parsnip, sundried tomato, carrot, garlic, beet, pesto sauce, and parmesan cheese. Washed down with a nice California Shiraz. Mostly locally grown. Excellent.
It's easy to grin / When your ship comes in / And you've got the stock market beat. / But the man worthwhile, / Is the man who can smile, / When his shorts are too tight in the seat.
Here's a weird thought. I think it would be vastly more fair and less damaging if the fed/treasury re-flated the eCONomy by paying huge bonuses to census workers rather than bankers.
Hiring could be done via a lottery process. Plus, since the census is every ten years, it would be a regularly scheduled economic reflation/boost. It's a new twist to my faith based luck system concept. It sure beats basing an eCONomy on financial fraud. If nothing else the credit system wouldn't be so polluted with bad debt.
Quite frankly, just about any system is preferable to our current system.
From what I gather the 8k tax credit may go down as the most abused tax credit ever. I don't think rental properties qualify but from what I hear you can buy a house on behalf of your, yet unborn, child and get the tax credit.
I haven't checked closely, but the $6,500.00 is for any buyer.
You just have to explain how you are going to rent out your current house to cover the mortgage or whatever to make the double payments.
No, I don't mean buying rental property, I mean, you've already owned the
rental property for years, and it really is rental and you intend for real to live
in the house you are buying.
Do you get the 8k credit if you own rental property
You can claim the 8k credit with any housing purchase, however, if you do not live in the house for at least three years, you have to pay the 8k back to the government. Some of the people buying houses with the credit will discover they can't quite afford the house; get foreclosed on and then have the government come back to them looking for the money it advanced to them (which really went straight to the mortgage lender.)
Basel Too wrote:
the new monopoly games have debit cards instead of cash
Gotta train the new up-and-coming consumer
Way past time for a monopoly game reality update: mortgages, MBS, CDOs, CDSs, et. al. Why learn/practice obsolete processes? Learn the ins and outs of strategic default, jingle mail, residence without payment, etc.
No, she has the money, isn't going to the mtg lender.
Short sale anecdote anyway.
She made an offer of 122k. Appraised at 107k; she was perfectly
willing to keep paying 122, but couldn't get financing. FHA of course.
eventually, after weeks of to-ing and fro-ing between the short selling
bank and the relentless appraisal, who wouldn't go up even tho it had
appraised a few months ago for much more, the deal is done.
Sales price 109; borrowing 11k less etc, etc.
Only problem is, the buyer is now in the hospital with
pneumonia!!!
The tortoise lays on its back, its belly baking in the hot sun, beating its legs trying to turn itself over, but it can't. Not without your help. But you're not helping.
What do you mean, I'm not helping?
Why is that, Leon?
They're just questions, Leon. In answer to your query, they're written down for me. It's a test, designed to provoke an emotional response... Shall we continue?
Client who went to a hearing for his mom, said that they were suing
left and right, even people who only owed $300.00.
Don't mess with Chase!! Maybe that's the point.
Is that in small claims court? If they try that stuff in California, they're going to get a whole lot more than they bargained for. I'm sure there are more than a few people who can think of ways of making that backfire.
Calling it an "audit" may be glorification. It can be as simple as request for documentation by mail.
They key with the IRS is to never draw attention to yourself. Unless they owe me big -- which I try to avoid -- I also always file an extension, because nearly all random audits occur on taxes filed on or before March 15th.
They're just questions, Leon. In answer to your query, they're written down for me. It's a test, designed to provoke an emotional response... Shall we continue?
As I recall, there was a violent response to the line of questioning.
Hmm... I don't have anything to explain of hide. Do you?
No, but the IRS is the one institution in America where you're guilty until proven innocent, and they run their own courts. You don't want their attention any more than you want Homeland Security's.
Another BIG firm (HP) makes more than anticipated earnings NOT from increased sales, but from trimming operating costs. It seems most of the BIG COMPANIES profits this third quarter are from decreasing costs - while sales are still falling.......anyone else notice that?
Bearded Spock wrote:
Yeah. I'm sure she's great, except for that whole burning children alive thing.
+10
I like them well done, myself. Fundamentalists are special too.
Best of all: fundamentalist folks, prepared pulled-pork style. On a hard roll.
Lawyerliz writes: this was many years ago. He has a JD and a PHD both (he was threatening to
go for a med degree, but I put my foot down). He worked for Janet Reno, who is
both honest and fearsomely intelligent. He got to hate judges and what he did
and went back to science.
"A lot of good news is already priced in. For the dollar to meaningfully break below these levels, we'll probably have to see something that adds significantly to the already upbeat outlook for the global economy," said Omer Esiner, senior market analyst at Travelex Global Business Payments in Washington.
Since when has good news for the economy meant the dollar must go lower? This situation we're in is so surreal.
I've seen horrors... horrors that you've seen. But you have no right to call me a murderer. You have a right to kill me. You have a right to do that... but you have no right to judge me. It's impossible for words to describe what is necessary to those who do not know what horror means. Horror. Horror has a face... and you must make a friend of horror. Horror and moral terror are your friends. If they are not then they are enemies to be feared. They are truly enemies.
Woman Who Sank Galleon Was Beauty-Queen-Turned-Analyst Insider - Bloomberg.com
secret to $$$:
run whores to C-level execs, get paid with insider information, sell insider information to those willing to steal from other participants in the market
how they have resisted using RICO on Wall St with the high concentration of whores and cocaine, I'll never understand
I've seen horrors... horrors that you've seen. But you have no right to call me a murderer. You have a right to kill me. You have a right to do that... but you have no right to judge me. It's impossible for words to describe what is necessary to those who do not know what horror means. Horror. Horror has a face... and you must make a friend of horror. Horror and moral terror are your friends. If they are not then they are enemies to be feared. They are truly enemies.
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/23/2009 - 6:13 pm reply
That is quite the conundrum...
1.Sales on the internet not being taxed
2.Crappy data - either sampling error (survivor bias attributed to sales growth) or 'leaning on the scale'
3.Food sales as percentage of total sales increasing and reducing tax take
4.???
Got Chase on the phone and tried to get a discounted payoff, no dice, instead, they extended and pretended and cut my monthly payment on the closed account to 2% per year on a 5 year payout! W00T!!!
Been following your saga. Enlighten, please....are you not still employed? What, if anything, changed other than the collapse in your house value? n
Not trying to pick a fight, just in the same boat as many, hiked to usurious rates by -insert Co. here- and wondering best way to fight back. Do you still have a fall-back CC, or are you cash only now?
I wonder if some out of luck lawyer hasn't "bought up" delinquent accounts and is suing to get whatever he can. I can't see how Chase could pay a in-house lawyer to do that and expect to come out ahead.
The cases are almost all the same, so you get your forms set and crank them out. Also, lots and lots of cardholders default (on the suit), so the credit card company automatically wins. Once you've got the default judgment, garnishing a checking account or wages is not a big deal.
People are just saving up for Christmas.
...
Oh, wait
Does not bode well for Christmas retailers, I fear.
Bad news for the real economy translates into bigger bonuses on Wall St. Let the quantitative (dis)easing CONtinue.
Party on Lloyd. Party on Jamie.
Isn't that when cards like Chase started raising minimum payments to levels that no one could afford?
Edit: Or was that when Citicards jacked some of their rates to 29.99%?
Nemo wrote:
Lay-away: Xmas purchasing plan of the 1980s.
Lay-away: Daily necessities purchasing plan of the 2010s.
.
Phogress anyone?
BTW, tons of data tomorrow ...
1) House Prices (Case-Shiller)
2) FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile
3) GDP revision
4) Consumer confidence (for those who follow it)
5) FOMC minutes (always fun reading).
And I'm sure there will be more.
I don't agree with others here that masses of Americans are going to blow out their credit cards this Xmas.
It doesn't jive with what I'm seeing and feeling. I think shopping is going to be dismal and people will watch their money a lot more carefully.
Even the idiots who charge into the stores on Black Friday will spend a lot less. They are there mainly for show anyways.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Mmm... data... nom nom nom nom nom!
Does anyone default without having maxed out the limit? I'd be willing to bet that those 10.4% of loans represent at least 20% of dollar volume.
It will be a fascinating social experiment this holiday season to see how many people engage in ruthless charging.
It's times like this that millions are grateful they took all that dead money sitting in house equity and invested it in high yielding granite counter tops.
How's this compare with the credit card delinquency rates of the 1930's?
Yeah, but that means that "Good News: Credit Card Delinquencies Are Falling".
And positive quarters at HP, et al have nothing to do with laying off huge swaths of their workforce.
good for another 125 points on the DOW
CR wrote:
That makes credit card defaults a lagging indicator! Nothing to see here, move along.
...and invested it in high yielding radioactive granite counter tops.
Just to make sure you get ALL the value you're entitled to.
This seems to go against the TransUnion report this morning that showed serious delinquencies falling. the key difference is the TU report was about 90+ day delinquent accounts (1.10% in 3Q down from 1.17% in 2Q, and 1.09% a year ago). More people missing short term, ie 30 days past due, fewer blowing off CC bills altogether.
Angry Saver, thanks for the laugh! You mean those granite counter tops don't yield 8%?
best wishes
Looks like a jogless recovery, people are so out of shape, they have a hard time making it from the front door to the car without getting winded.
Question which is the more significant rate for CC defaults: U-3 or U-6
. . . or whether they're about the same or if it even can be measured?
everybody wants a countertop that keeps the food warm
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Is this the last "big week" of data that will have a substantial effect on the overall holiday shopping season?
So will unemployment. Hey, are they just using the same numbers?
rich wrote:
Perhaps "this Xmas" ends the "pretend"; for the bull and the bears. If it's down 10% it'll be tough for the MSM hopium smokers to keep up the chant of green shoots. If the sales come in flat or even down 1% (?) the bears are probably wrong and the country muddles through on the perpetual debt supplied by Hu.
Maybe THIS Christmas IS the final battle.
Spunkmeyer wrote:
Pretty much, except for those that receive layoff notices...
I wonder when we'll fall below equilibrium - where each dollar of new debt REDUCES gdp - most likely through currency depreciation.
About as well as airports today compare to the airports of the 1880's. CC's were not invented until the 50's and really didnt take off until the 60's
mail from two CC companies last week; Citi jacked my rate to 22.9%, Chase encouraged me to use their checks and take a vacation. nice of them to give me an opt out though.
I skimmed the Black Friday pre-releases,...I don't think they'll bring in higher traffic numbers or sales.
MrBeach wrote:
I don't think that is possible since GDP is measured in dollars.
sdtfs wrote:
Yeah, but that's because the CC companies will have finally slowed down lending to people that can't pay it back. It would be interesting to see the total $$ figure charged on cards vs time.
Dirk van Dijk wrote:
I bet they lost allot less luggage then too!
Dirk van Dijk wrote:
Also, Moodys was one month (October vs. September), and TU was Q3 vs. Q2.
Sergeant Hulka: When I tell you move, you'll move fast. When I tell you to jump, you're gonna say, "How high?"
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
We all look like Mrs. Obama now.
Dirk van Dijk wrote:
So you don't believe the figures at Nazca are an airport? You really think they're there for space ships?
sdtfs wrote:
I've seen lots of featured ads for flat screen TVs, but I'd still consider those a big ticket item compared to the $25 DVD player you end up being trampled for at Wal-Mart. And, the DTV conversion earlier this year probably pulled forward a lot of demand for new TVs.
@ rich
+1
@ Not Real
Sales tax revenue has continued to remain well off all year. Having said that it would not surprise me for your prediction to be true for (some of) the major chains - but at the expense of the small guy who gets blown out.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
More like the Final Countdown! (YouTube)
Rob Dawg wrote:
+1 "Make sex to me"
Citizen AllenM writes:
"Guess I have been here too long. I imagine I am now a "long time resident"
We're all mad here.
yagij wrote:
G.O.B. approves of your link.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
But, not the mad cow kinda mad... Another kind.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
The mad Cramer kinda mad?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Prior to the bankruptcy reform, you bet they maxed out the cards prior to BK. After the reform, more debtors are forced to file a Ch 13, so they usually have to pay something on the CC debt unless they are out of work and can file the Ch7.
black dog wrote:
I have been struggling with the fact that sales tax collections are down more than sales. I have no idea if this relates to more retailers not remitting the sales tax to the states, or if more buyers are shopping on line and not paying sales tax. Some other factor?
my parents are aiming for the 40 1080p LCDs for $500 at costco. quite a difference from the $6K that my uncle dropped for one about 5 years ago...
Some small retailers have a choice, make payroll or pay sales tax. They are thinking they can make up the tax with holiday sales. Not going to happen. When the doors close and the past employees file taxes is when they learn that none of the Fed tax, FICA etc was paid either.
This will not be pretty.
Didn't we lose a shopper, last Black Friday?
Terry wrote:
Not according to Comscore in 3Q2009...
Terry wrote:
Many states do not tax "food". This has been the one area of sales growth that has made Walmart look good compared to other retailers.
Yes, someone got trampled to death at a Wallmart.
(Seriously OT) What to know what kind of
would bring true fear and capitulation to my family law tainted heart? This scenario.
energyecon wrote:
Agreed - can you think of any reasons for the big difference between the drop in sales tax collections vs the smaller drop in sales? Crappy data?
'Price-fixing schemes'
http://www.springerlink.com/content/t03576548640k684/fulltext.pdf?page=1
'Some Parallels Between Currency and banking Crisis'
'Indeed, the government assets backing the exchange rate and bank deposits can ultimately be the same assets.
Once the asset backing is gone, or the government chooses to halt its further depletion, price-fixing schemes collapse.'
...Price-fixing schemes collapse.
Rajesh wrote:
Hadn't thought about that. When a higher percent of income goes to nontaxed food, less is spent on taxable items. It could be a simple as that in some states.
yagij wrote:
Waking up with a cougar in Vegas and a marriage certificate?
Basel Too wrote:
Wow. Was there a bubble in TVs or something? I'd find it hard to justify > $600 on a TV.
We have friends that bought a 5k TV a few years ago, then it broke, and they got the 5k back in vouchers... SCORE!
Actually, under $400 is my threshold for consumer electronics. We may be just about there with 32"+ LCD TVs.
yep. sales tax collection is a huge problem for the states right now, simply because too many merchants are commingling funds for operations. a tax preparer i know has been bombarded with nasty letters from the state, telling her to remind all clients of the deadline. wouldn't surprise me if states start to move towards prepay, though that would be the end of a lot of merchants.
AP-GfK Poll: Debt turning shoppers into Scrooges - Yahoo! News
Brick & mortar rigis. It was a 1-2 combo punch that did them in, online competition and the great unravelling of business, in the early 21st century. Strangely enough, the online retailers mostly went out of business as well also, until there was just one store to buy things from, the G.U.M. in the central city.
energyecon, re: last thread, JPM's pulse index
I did mention that it is composed of the biggest online retailers. Which is worth something in itself.
One theme we have seen is the new success is just surviving, while others are being squeezed out. If the larger retailers are holding steady within a shrinking market, that means the brunt is being felt by the smaller businesses.
Another aspect could be the shifting of retail sales from physical taxed sales to online tax-free sales
What it means to me is that those anticipating a gangbusters retail season after 2 years of savings-ennui, are demonstrably wrong.
On the positive side of YoY flat sales is the warm-fuzzy target for this year in my opinion.
That is quite the conundrum...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
HA! Too funny. REAL Mericans in G.U.M. The sales people would still be perky tho, right?
delinquent sales tax collection.
Shouldn't the percentage of delinquencies rise anyway as they cancel cards that aren't being used?
Dirk van Dijk wrote:
see:
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Could that introduce modeling error? Where increases due to survivor bias are attributed to sales growth? Thus, the aggregate is in distinct decline while the sampled sub-set show increases...
That is quite the conundrum...
energyecon wrote:
pshaw. That wouldn't even make me blink. I can work my way around a Vegas-style "Uh no" quite easily. Besides she may be the one to wake up, see me, and bring true fear to her heart. Especially if she has money and she signed the prenupt I drafted...
energyecon wrote:
Restaurant traffic certainly supports this factor.
it is amazing that the government is typically the low man on the creditor totem pole.
L8TR - got to head home and walk the dogs.
Basel Too wrote:
Why? It isn't their money.
Basel Too wrote:
Not a tax lawyer, but I am sure some states pin the business owers personally for not remitting the sales taxes. Of course, that is the case for payroll withholdings, too.
You don't want me to collect the taxes, If I was you.
energyecon wrote:
as long as we're trying to fence in the answer, what about small retailers who are collecting sales tax but failing to pay it to the taxing authority on time because they dipped into that to meet payroll or an order for inventory?
It's a big gap though, is it a thousand little things like failure to collect sales taxes or is it a smaller number of big impacts like internet/food sales tax exemptions, or data with poor accuracy?
Basel Too wrote:
Ooooh, the number of retailers that would hit those numbers exactly would be amazing. Talk about unintended consequences.
Oddjob Alert
Was it Goldfinger or Bond who ended up with Pussy Galore?
JP wrote:
Master Card & Visa share prices should pretty much reflect that.
"wouldn't surprise me if states start to move towards prepay,"
Non-starter. Not death and taxes, but death by taxes.
gack, credit to josap and Basel Too for bringing up sales tax collection before I arrived, sorry about interfering with the timeline
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
They would be complete idiots is my first thought, but it depends on the setup and the state. I would imagine inter-mingling state taxes with private funds willingly would be like messing with an escrow account. It works until it doesn't, and when it doesn't, the buck is going to stop on the owner's head.
*Was it Goldfinger or Bond *
Two ridiculous characters out of Fleming's gaudy imagination.
I was out where Jesus lost his sandals, on Hwy 58 in the high desert of the Mojave, when I passed a gas station with a sign that has those changeable letters-like the numbers on the sign that gives the different prices for gasoline, and it proclaimed:
"Try Are Costa Ricon Coffee"
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Let's not forget that small retailers are not tax collectors; they are paying the tax and passing the cost on to the consumer. I believe there's a legal point that needs to be finessed there.
"Try Are Costa Ricon Coffee"
Well, they tried.
---ROFLMAO, Juvenal!
If'n I was a small retailer that was on the verge of not making it like all of em' are, i'd consider using the 10% loan from the state in the guise of tax collections not passed on, if push>met<shove.
yagij
There are reports of borrowing from taxes owed, just like some state governments are doing for their own obligations. It remains to be seen how deep and broad these practices are. It is a logical response to a sudden drop in sales, with promises of Valhalla just one more month away. It now rests on ponzi. In response to the question what lies beneath that ponzi: it is ponzis all the way down
What happens in a game of monopoly when one player wins all the assets?
4:15:15:13!
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Where I'm from, the other players kill him.
What happens where you're from?
What do these numbers mean, Gnomester?
energyecon wrote:
Actually, josap mentioned it first on this thread, though Basel had a bit more detail.
I think what they were both saying or intending was "remittance" not "collection."
josap (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/23/2009 - 4:06 pm
What happens in a game of monopoly when one player wins all the assets?
The other players throw away what little money they had left and play another game, while the monopolist is left holding worthless scraps of paper.
They win of course!!
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Lots of small retailers are already past push and shove.
January will see more vacant space.
anyone care to speculate how much is failure to pay taxes+fees on time, and how much is never intending to pay them at all?
If I were a contractor who had struggled with black market competition during the boom years, I probably would gleefully not pay any requested taxes during the lean times. Nothing to lose at this point, other than the ability to put food on the table for now. Without moving to the black market, there might not be a job at all
"Meredith Whitney came out this week and said that since the stock market highs last year, there has been $1.5 trillion of available credit removed from the consumers, and she went on to say that another $1.2 trillion more will evaporate. This has, and will, continue to hamper consumer spending"
The Mean Old Investor
Liz<
Did you finally get your tub installed?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
You don't "win" the assets, you earn them. Chance: [Bank Error in their favor. Pay $14T]
Where I'm from, the other players kill him.
You're from where?
hahahahahahahahahahah
Even in the best of times small retailers chipped away on the taxes. Uh, it's not the most difficult thing to figure out how to do it.
In the Wall*Street version, it doesn't matter how the dice roll, you just have the Fed loan you 10x the amount of money outstanding on the table, and end up owning everything.
In the regular version when one player wins all the assets, everybody is usually tired and goes to bed. The winner always had to put the game away, in our household.
EHP-
The consequences for failing to remit sales taxes or payroll withholding taxes are usually quite severe. It will mostly be done by people who are very ignorant or very desperate. Fortunately we have a large supply of both in America.
Northeastern ends football after 74 seasons - College Football - Rivals.com
I expect there will be a few more stories like this.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Did I say that out loud? What I meant was that never happened - we didn't have the patience to play that long.
Basel Too wrote:
I have heard, though I can't confirm, that the State of California has done some preliminary work with CC companies towards having the sales tax portion of a CC sale sent directly to the state, not to the merchant's account, once the transaction clears.
All it would take is inputting the sales number and tax number separately. Certainly the technology is there to do it now.
confusing treasure with wealth... at least we now know what they were talking about back then
yagij wrote:
I wonder if a "brain scanner machine" can see Yes's and No's? If so, wouldn't it be great to start selling "kits" to prevent you (and your loved ones) from being trapped in a "vegetative state" inside your own skull? I'm thinking, for only $29.99 a month (for 6 months), we could "create" something that would allow you (or your loved one) to train their brain to generate Yes & No signals which could be picked up by a "brain scanner machine". You'd never need to worry about being trapped in a "vegetative state" again.
This offer is not available in any stores. Operator are standing by. The first 20 callers receive a free copy of "The Illustrative guide to do-it-yourself brain surgery".
josap wrote:
Josap, I am afraid you are right. Afraid because failing to make the employer matching and doing withholding properly is often criminal with an average federal prison sentence of 17 months. Many small retailers don't understand why payroll witholding and employer matching is taken so seriously -- it is THE primary point of collection for federal taxes.
sportsfan wrote:
feels like a VAT, sounds like a VAT, when will we see it if comes out as a VAT?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
It never get's that far. The players start arguing and accusing each other of cheating. Eventually, the guy playing the bank win anyway because he's slowly taking money out of the tiller while the others are arguing.
The other players throw away what little money they had left and play another game, while the monopolist is left holding worthless scraps of paper.
The game ends, play is no longer possible, because no one has assets to contribute to the play except the winner. The more closely we approach that outcome the more critical the situation. In real life the winners may be a select group, or the state. But according to the rules of the game in any mass society so far this outcome is possible.
My mom and grandmom has a metal card that was good for the big
5 department stores in Baltimore. It had to be paid the following
month. I'm pretty sure they had this in the 40s.
You imprinted the slip by smashing it down in this machine with a handle.
I think they still exist. The machines, that is.
Where do I send a thank you letter for GE? Is it the White House, or some e-mail list? I wouldn't think it appropriate to send it to Immelt considering GE the company isn't paying the $700k towards rink refurbishment in exchange for advertising/space rental
CBC News - British Columbia - Vancouver's Robson Square skating rink reopens
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Can't the "winner" loan the other players assets with a lien on their future earnings?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
No economic system has a pleasant reset button. Only the"flip the monopoly board up in the air and pull out the six-shooters" ending (usually after the camera shows close-ups of the players eyes, real quick. Need good music too).
What bunch of poor losers,...didn't you guys ever win one?
sdtfs wrote:
No, the other guys always pulled the six-shooters first. It's THEIR fault.
Oh, yes, and it took my mom a couple of days (of washing in the sink) to brave all
the new knobs and dials. But now she loves it.
why do those particular numbers mean
?
rosethorn wrote:
Ahh one of the many institutions of higher education that ultimately suggested i pursue academic excellence elsewhere.
Reading the article is an exercise in reading twixt the lines. Ultimately it was about money. $4m per year. That's probably as much as they spend on white glazed bricks.
IMO, an early indicator of the higher ed bubble popping.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
my sister did that once when I was winning.
Well if enough small retailers don't send on the taxes,
will it turn out like uncollectible mortgages? Not that I
am saying that anybody should do this.
My hub prosecuted a gas station owner who didn't send on the taxes.
Ultimately it was about money. $4m per year. That's probably as much as they spend on white glazed bricks.
got to love this...
Northeastern president tops Chronicle Of Higher Education's pay list - The Boston Globe
"Can't the "winner" loan the other players assets with a lien on their future earnings?"
Yes. But will future earnings suffice to pay off the loan? That depends on variables, such as technological and scientific innovation, educational opportunity, social stability, expansion of markets, demographic increase, developments in exploitation of resources, administrative efficiency, et. al. A mass society is not a simple machine.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Darn. There's goes some good student loans too. Major in running, with a minor in throwing. Sad....
Lawyerliz,
Saw a show last night about a mob guy from NYC who ended up in Miami. Made a fortune by opening a series of gasoline wholesalers who didn't pay their gas taxes. Said he just did one after another and went out of business. At one point was skimming 8 or 9 million dollars a week in taxes he didn't pay on to the state. Got the Key to the City from the Mayor of Miami before they finally caught up to him after about a decade of the scam. RICO conviction I think.
lawyerliz wrote:
Sometimes; in this area I've heard of restaurant owner in particular being late on paying meal taxes, and getting large portions of the tax due written down. Same characters seem to do it over and over, and the dept. of rev. seems to be glad to collect whatever they can. Probably a payoff going on, but that part doesn't get into the news.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
I was trying to relate things to our present situation; looks like you did a better job than I-
liz, your mom had a charge card, not a credit card.
The first credit card was Diner's Club in I think 1952
pavel.chichikov wrote:
It would require jobs too. The non-winners would need jobs to pay the interest payments to the final winner. Unless we can find somebody to lends us some money. Hu would do that...
"my sister did that once when I was winning. "
I thought that's how all games ended.
Yeah, I remember now; it was called a charge-a-plate.
but you did get credit for a month.
Only zero sum games. Try Calvinball.
Monopoly allows mortgages, but when I was a kid, house rule
was we didn't do that. In the game, if you had to pay a mortgage,
you were a loser already.
We used to call it monotony, but it's still around!!
Liz<
D = 4
O = 15
O = 15
M = 13
Never Again II wrote:
Unless the winner can create a story for the losers. It would have to be REALLY good story, believable to the losers. About how the winner is really winning for everybody. Na... that could NEVER work, could it?
I think the key element there, the sine qua non, is social stability based on free choice, not coercion.
Dad to high school senior.
Son, I know we put your older brother through college, but times have changed. We can't get another loan on the house, mom's hours at work have been cut and the credit card payment doubled. So you will either have to work to pay for your education or get a loan on your own.
Kid: Well, there aren't many jobs. How much would I have to borrow?
Dad: About $160,000.00 total.
Son: But, but - I could by the REO across the street for that!!!! I'm just going to get a job at the fast food place and use the FTHB credit to buy the house.
Dad: Good plan son. This spring when the house payments increase your mom and I will need a place to move into.
I remember the carbon paper credit card machines, http://www1.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/675825/2/istockphoto_675825_credit_card_swipe_device.jpg
now the newer ones don't even use a signature, just the pin number verified by the implanted chip
soon, it will just be done through your cell phone
once that happens, Visa and Mastercard will have to compete
I would think that all happens in the next 20 years
sales tax collections are down more than sales.
...............................
disproportionate decrease in sales of big ticket items
the new monopoly games have debit cards instead of cash
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Or social stability based on BS. I'll go with the BS.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
"Hey guys,, guys calm down. I don't have to win. We'll take turns winning. I'll win for a bit and then Barry can win for a while. The Banker will make sure it is all on the up and up." "Gee, Georgie, that sounds swell."
Basel Too wrote:
Gotta train the new up-and-coming consumer
In the 70s I played monopoly with some communists from
somewhere in the Soviet Union. Probably Lithuanian diplomats,
since it was at a Lithuanian's friend's house.
They were eager to play this capitalist game, since it was forbidden
at home.
They were truly appalled at our cut-throatedness. I think they
thought it was rude.
lawyerliz wrote:
That was called a charge card. Originally, stores knew their customers; the better customers would have an account and they could put purchases on their account and pay it at their convenience. When the number of customers grew larger and they didn't know them all by name, they invented the charge card, which allowed them to track the account number of the customer; they could then send regular statements. Charge cards were still the stores extending credit. You had to establish credit with each store (though often stores would work together to simply the experience for the customers.) The stores don't get paid for their merchandise until the customer writes the check.
With the credit card, a bank extends the credit to the consumer, the store gets paid for their good very quickly by the bank. The bank takes the risk of late payments or defaults and usually charges a transaction fee to the store.
Today's latest installment of Crush your Creditors(tm)
Got Chase on the phone and tried to get a discounted payoff, no dice, instead, they extended and pretended and cut my monthly payment on the closed account to 2% per year on a 5 year payout! W00T!!!
Can you say cheaper interest and much longer terms?
Plus no taxable event. Plus my monthly is now 36% of what it was before the phone call!!!
I love extend and pretend!!!!
The party continues!!!
Crush Your Creditor!!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Now, if everybody did that, we wouldn't have
any ccs, would we? Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Hungry.
Citizen AllenM, I never thought of you as a ruthless consumer.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
The lessons learned from this, and a million stories like it, will make this country strong, and a better place for our children.
In Florida Chase is suing people like crazy. People
who didn't make a settlement with them.
That wasn't snark, was it patient?
lawyerliz,
Is Chase suing on Credit Cards in Florida? Is this a summary proceeding? Lawyers are taking credit card suits? Wow!
I'm really hungry.
Should I pay cash or charge din-din???
Tonight the Titans will bring me mo' money!
lawyerliz wrote:
Beauty, and snark, are in the eye of the beholder, LL.
Liz, you were asking above what those numbers meant. It was a simple riddle, but you seem to like riddles.
So I have an old one for you, but you would have had to be in SoCal about 3 years ago to get it:
My bet is that in 3 months, today's market will seem cheap. Just my opinion.
lawyerliz,
Charge it. Then pay before interest accrues. Get the points, miles or whatever.
I think that they are sort of an inhouse law firm.
Client who went to a hearing for his mom, said that they were suing
left and right, even people who only owed $300.00.
Don't mess with Chase!! Maybe that's the point.
lawyerliz wrote:
Florida and CaLi seem like different worlds. We've got high unemployment YOU'VE got high unemployment. Our housing prices go up, yours go down. We have loans, you don't. Thing are still nice and relaxed out here. Oh sure, a few students occupying buildings, but you could see they were happy and smiling (upper-class "outrage").
I don't get it.
lawyerliz wrote:
Just don't pay.
I don't understand Cali.
You tell me.
Rob Dawg wrote:
My take was quite the opposite. It is pretending to kill something that will cause large donations to "save".
thread music:
YouTube - Bobby Darin: Splish Splash (take 1)
What about small business people? Aren't they up the creek?
No fear on the streets?
sportsfan wrote:
The IRS wants the CC companies to report merchant card sales so they can make sure the merchants are paying all the federal taxes that are owed.
josap wrote:
Everybody's sister did that one while we were winning.
lawyerliz wrote:
I wonder if some out of luck lawyer hasn't "bought up" delinquent accounts and is suing to get whatever he can. I can't see how Chase could pay a in-house lawyer to do that and expect to come out ahead.
josap wrote:
What was the classic O/N line for a while back: "Who pays the mortgage? Whoever can pay it this month."
.
(Paraphrased and not nearly as funny)
lawyerliz wrote:
Wait. Your hub works at nasa, and then prosecutes tax scofflaws on the side for fun?
Badass hub you have there.
ll,
I am lawyer in Texas. I represent a lot of federally insured financial institutions these days in collections suits. Background is partner in biglaw doing corporate securities/corporate finance deals up to half a billion in transaction value, some securitizations, but not many. Can't believe lawyers or law firms would take such suits.
Also, last year moved my business accounts to chase and immediately got a hundred grand line of credit. I think I have put maybe 5 and on it once or twice. Honestly, I don't even think they ran a credit report. Credit analysis was non-existent in my case, but I suppose they were pretty well cash collateralized as they could offset my deposit accounts.
I used to eat breakfast at the same Cuban restaurant every day.
I got to feeling like home.
One day I walked out without paying, not even noticing that I hadn't paid.
the next day I went back and they said, uh, you didn't pay yesterday!!
So I paid.
lawyerliz wrote:
In CaLi? I don't see it. There are still restaurants opening in the college town I live in. Somebody is STILL doing restaurant loans. One opened 3 weeks ago. Converted two story house in the downtown area. Place is huge (and packed).
lawyerliz wrote:
13 to 9.
ucla 13, usc 9 - Yahoo! Search Results
I know it's only Monday, but it is That Week.
A bunch of in house lawyers are doing it together with at least 5 paralegals
and a receptionist. I know 'cause I talked to them.
lawyerliz,
Were you going to pay at the Cuban restaurant anyway?
Hackman wrote:
Collection agencies, probably not Chase???
In Texas I don't think you can appear before the bar if you are in-house.
It's in the Glossary:
this was many years ago. He has a JD and a PHD both (he was threatening to
go for a med degree, but I put my foot down). He worked for Janet Reno, who is
both honest and fearsomely intelligent. He got to hate judges and what he did
and went back to science.
yagij wrote:
It was Spunkmeyer, and he said something like: "Maybe the extended family can move in together and take turns not paying the mortgage."
My little stint on the wagon didn't last long. Mrs. Angry said I was a boring dinner date. Anyway, I've always preferred BYO restaurants - you get to drink exactly what you want without paying an arm and a leg. Ever since the financial crisis hit last fall, all my BYO joints have been packed.
More signs of belt tightening.
Terry wrote:
No doubt the IRS wants everybody to report everything they ever do with everyone else.
I doubt the CC companies are anxious to comply since they realize there would be fewer transactions as a result.
My first credit was at the drug / sundry store in town.
They put your name on an 3 X 5 card. Wrote down what you bought and what you owned.
Subtracted what you paid. No interest, no docs. Same for the feed store.
Hackman wrote:
I didn't realize I hadn't paid until I walked in the next day!! Sure I would
have paid, if I had realized.
lawyerliz,
i figured you for that rarest of the rare -- the honest lawyer.
No Chase, either a separate firm who is at the Chase number, no
kidding, or in house lawyers. Really. When I was helping a lady whose
SS they garnished, (a no-no), I called a lot before straightening it out.
Bottom line was Wa-Mu employee couldn't read the new computer
screens at chase.
one of my newfangled competitors used to be all plastic, but in the past year has put in a cash receptacle.
actually same here, so I am not so sure of their in-house-ness.
But they certainly are on the Chase phone line.
Do you think they will let me live in Montana?
??
You're all on the wrong track.
The disconnect between reported retail sales numbers and retail sales taxes collected is purely due to survivorship bias.
Only those stores that are still in business report their sales, so their sales are up due to more customers per store. HOWEVER, total sales are still down. Everyone's still paying their taxes because it's practically a felony not to.
No mystery here, and it's all bad.
This one is going to hurt: "Freddie Mac could be exposed to more than $1 billion in potential losses from the failure of Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp. and Colonial Bank, the company disclosed Monday in a securities filing."
Oxtail wrote:
Hey! Didn't know I had been immortalized in the Glossary. Highlight of my virtual life.
HomeGnome wrote:
You'll be fine. If they start shooting as you cross the border, tho, maybe not...
HomeGnome,
I think you can get a good deal on a Recreational Vehicle right about now.
lawyerliz wrote:
Hunt for Red October .
Congrats!!
Terry wrote:
Just add it to the tab. I don't think Freddie is worried.
Terry wrote:
Hurt? 1 B $? That's only 0.001T dollars. A rounding error now.
Did we establish that Taylor, Bean had more than one bank account??
It seems so long ago.
I am really really hungry.
Client who went to a hearing for his mom, said that they were suing
left and right, even people who only owed $300.00.
Don't mess with Chase!! Maybe that's the point
Chase gets my vote for the Ebenezer Scrooge Award this year. But they may luck out:
(A CHRISTMAS CAROL Cancels December Engagement
Page Not Found (BroadwayWorld.com)
Hackman wrote:
a very good deal - you can get the Home Buyers Credit for a RV.
lawyerliz wrote:
There's no food here.
For the working man everywhere:
Cinderella story. Outta nowhere. A former greenskeeper, now, about to become the Masters champion. It looks like a mirac... It's in the hole! It's in the hole! It's in the hole!
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I had a friend in CA that had to do a personal bankruptcy years ago because of a business failure. He hadn't kept up the payments to the state's Employment Development Dept for state withholding. Five years after the BK had been discharged the EDD was still after him, with liens, garnishing wages, threatening letters, endless phone calls, etc.
Moral of story: always pay the taxing authorities BEFORE ANYONE ELSE. They are relentless blood sucking vampire squid that never die.
It doesn't say why they cancelled.
Liz<
Mrs. Gnome and I just had Gnomemade pizza with ham, red pepper and pepperoncini.
Delicious!
Do you get the 8k credit if you own rental property. I don't think
so, but weird things can happen.
lawyerliz wrote:
Get dinner, Liz. I just cooked and ate a heaping plate of fresh broccoli, parsnip, sundried tomato, carrot, garlic, beet, pesto sauce, and parmesan cheese. Washed down with a nice California Shiraz. Mostly locally grown. Excellent.
HomeGnome wrote:
HomeGnome - feels like we are playing Scene It
Ahoy polloi!
It's easy to grin / When your ship comes in / And you've got the stock market beat. / But the man worthwhile, / Is the man who can smile, / When his shorts are too tight in the seat.
My you deserve to live forever!!
Terry wrote:
But the problem is, it's the movie Alien, and we're trying to find that damned cat.
I've just reviewed the CR posts for the day . . . . No time to read comments.
Accessing here BS free analysis in the midst of this madness is a treasure. Going CR-less for any more than a day, is to be convinced that I am crazy.
Much appreciated again, Calculated Risk!
Here's a weird thought. I think it would be vastly more fair and less damaging if the fed/treasury re-flated the eCONomy by paying huge bonuses to census workers rather than bankers.
Hiring could be done via a lottery process. Plus, since the census is every ten years, it would be a regularly scheduled economic reflation/boost. It's a new twist to my faith based luck system concept. It sure beats basing an eCONomy on financial fraud. If nothing else the credit system wouldn't be so polluted with bad debt.
Quite frankly, just about any system is preferable to our current system.
LL, no it didn't, and the radio report didn't either.
HomeGnome wrote:
Harder to get flights from Montana to Italy, ya know....
From what I gather the 8k tax credit may go down as the most abused tax credit ever. I don't think rental properties qualify but from what I hear you can buy a house on behalf of your, yet unborn, child and get the tax credit.
Weird.
I haven't checked closely, but the $6,500.00 is for any buyer.
You just have to explain how you are going to rent out your current house to cover the mortgage or whatever to make the double payments.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
I believe you owe all blood sucking vampire squids an apology... "They", are far worse.
Ebola might come close.
No, I don't mean buying rental property, I mean, you've already owned the
rental property for years, and it really is rental and you intend for real to live
in the house you are buying.
lawyerliz wrote:
You can claim the 8k credit with any housing purchase, however, if you do not live in the house for at least three years, you have to pay the 8k back to the government. Some of the people buying houses with the credit will discover they can't quite afford the house; get foreclosed on and then have the government come back to them looking for the money it advanced to them (which really went straight to the mortgage lender.)
True, but she's expecting 8k!
Who needs a flight when you have the witness protection program?
YouTube - My Blue Heaven Thanksgiving
Well, monday is health club hottie night, so I'm out-a-here.
josap wrote:
...any dishonest buyer. Fixed it for you.
We have to make sure we don't change our incentive system. Wouldn't pay to reverse course and start rewarding honesty, responsibility etc now.
Cinco-X wrote:
Way past time for a monopoly game reality update: mortgages, MBS, CDOs, CDSs, et. al. Why learn/practice obsolete processes? Learn the ins and outs of strategic default, jingle mail, residence without payment, etc.
I like the fact that using the credit is a red-flag for IRS audits. That'll teach'em.
+1
No, she has the money, isn't going to the mtg lender.
Short sale anecdote anyway.
She made an offer of 122k. Appraised at 107k; she was perfectly
willing to keep paying 122, but couldn't get financing. FHA of course.
eventually, after weeks of to-ing and fro-ing between the short selling
bank and the relentless appraisal, who wouldn't go up even tho it had
appraised a few months ago for much more, the deal is done.
Sales price 109; borrowing 11k less etc, etc.
Only problem is, the buyer is now in the hospital with
pneumonia!!!
Calling it an "audit" may be glorification. It can be as simple as request for documentation by mail.
What you already own has no bearing on the $6,500.00. The rental is part of your P&L or tax liability.
The tortoise lays on its back, its belly baking in the hot sun, beating its legs trying to turn itself over, but it can't. Not without your help. But you're not helping.
What do you mean, I'm not helping?
Why is that, Leon?
They're just questions, Leon. In answer to your query, they're written down for me. It's a test, designed to provoke an emotional response... Shall we continue?
So she doesn't count as a first time home buyer.
That really was my question.
Had temporarily forgot about the 6.5k.
lawyerliz wrote:
Is that in small claims court? If they try that stuff in California, they're going to get a whole lot more than they bargained for. I'm sure there are more than a few people who can think of ways of making that backfire.
Yep it's in small claims court.
Why would it backfire?
Damn, I really have to leave.
Stop sucking me in.
JP wrote:
They key with the IRS is to never draw attention to yourself. Unless they owe me big -- which I try to avoid -- I also always file an extension, because nearly all random audits occur on taxes filed on or before March 15th.
Filing an extension won't bring attention??? Umm, never heard of that.
HomeGnome wrote:
As I recall, there was a violent response to the line of questioning.
What did you have in mind?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Hmm... I don't have anything to explain or hide. Do you?
Time to make some phone calls.
Later taters.
patientrenter wrote:
No, but the IRS is the one institution in America where you're guilty until proven innocent, and they run their own courts. You don't want their attention any more than you want Homeland Security's.
yagij wrote:
I think it was more like "Whose turn is it not to pay the mortgage this month"
lawyerliz wrote:
Beats me. We just seem to have a bunch of joyous litigators here.
IRS=HomelandSecurity=Secret Service
Another BIG firm (HP) makes more than anticipated earnings NOT from increased sales, but from trimming operating costs. It seems most of the BIG COMPANIES profits this third quarter are from decreasing costs - while sales are still falling.......anyone else notice that?
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Don't forget tax savings due to not having profits as high as last year!
Black Star Ranch wrote:
yep I noticed. usually from fewer employees.
while sales are still falling.......anyone else notice that?
Yep. The falling sales stick out like a sore thumb. For the 12 months ending 9/30/09, S&P 500 sales are off a mere 1.46 trillion.
Angry Saver wrote:
What % is that?
lawyerliz wrote:
Yeah. I'm sure she's great, except for that whole burning children alive thing.
Bearded Spock wrote:
Crispy. Add BBQ sauce.
patientrenter wrote:
E. Gonzalez wasn't burned only abducted in a raid with armed men.
patientrenter wrote:
.....when you lose a child, patient, comments like that tend NOT to be funny...
Bearded Spock wrote:
+10
I like them well done, myself. Fundamentalists are special too.
Blackwaterwannabe wrote:
Best of all: fundamentalist folks, prepared pulled-pork style. On a hard roll.
Lawyerliz writes:
this was many years ago. He has a JD and a PHD both (he was threatening to
go for a med degree, but I put my foot down). He worked for Janet Reno, who is
both honest and fearsomely intelligent. He got to hate judges and what he did
and went back to science.
Wait... this story sounds vaguely familiar...
U.S. dollar no longer a one-way bet
| Reuters
Since when has good news for the economy meant the dollar must go lower? This situation we're in is so surreal.
Doh. Old article. Didn't check the date.
I've seen horrors... horrors that you've seen. But you have no right to call me a murderer. You have a right to kill me. You have a right to do that... but you have no right to judge me. It's impossible for words to describe what is necessary to those who do not know what horror means. Horror. Horror has a face... and you must make a friend of horror. Horror and moral terror are your friends. If they are not then they are enemies to be feared. They are truly enemies.
Woman Who Sank Galleon Was Beauty-Queen-Turned-Analyst Insider - Bloomberg.com
secret to $$$:
run whores to C-level execs, get paid with insider information, sell insider information to those willing to steal from other participants in the market
how they have resisted using RICO on Wall St with the high concentration of whores and cocaine, I'll never understand
HomeGnome wrote:
I hope the movie was better than the dialog.
patientrenter wrote:
From Apocalypse Now.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Hel-loooooo!
Comment by energyecon from thread 'Moody’s: Credit Card Delinquencies Rise'
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/23/2009 - 6:13 pm reply
Citizen AllenM wrote:
Been following your saga. Enlighten, please....are you not still employed? What, if anything, changed other than the collapse in your house value? n
Not trying to pick a fight, just in the same boat as many, hiked to usurious rates by -insert Co. here- and wondering best way to fight back. Do you still have a fall-back CC, or are you cash only now?
Cinco-X wrote:
The cases are almost all the same, so you get your forms set and crank them out. Also, lots and lots of cardholders default (on the suit), so the credit card company automatically wins. Once you've got the default judgment, garnishing a checking account or wages is not a big deal.