From the pigged thread:

Remember when Cheney said deficits don't matter and Krugman blew a gasket. The dipshits at the NYT don't, but I do. Once again, we see that economics is just ideology wrapped in scientific sounding jargon. Hayek called this crap "scientism".

All charts looking good, right? At least on a YoY basis.....

Nuke wrote:

From the pigged thread:
Remember when Cheney said deficits don't matter and Krugman blew a gasket. The dipshits at the NYT don't, but I do. Once again, we see that economics is just ideology wrapped in scientific sounding jargon. Hayek called this crap "scientism".

Menacing Krugman

Jan and Feb will set new record low sales. Horrid sales numbers. We've pulled a TON of demand forward.
And if you think CNBC/NAR is going to spin this month good, wait till next month!

Dont be so hard on Krugman! he had to become what he is otherwise he wouldnt be there !! Laughing out loud

Cinco-X wrote:

All charts looking good, right? At least on a YoY basis.....

They are: Oceans rising faster than expected as climate change exceeds grimmest models | Raw Story
But this is probably leftist propaganda to deny my divine right to prosperity, and promote socialism!
Science is Satan.

Some high-level decision-maker at Standard & Poor's has decided that the public should no longer be allowed easy access to this crucial number: the Price/Earnings ratio of the S&P 500.

That number went above 140 on September 30, 2009 -- the highest ever recorded. It had continued upward all year.

I went to the old page late last week. The page has been totally redesigned. The P/E ratio was missing.

If the gov't would just start buying all the houses and raffling them off, think how much sales would improve.

adornosghost wrote:

All charts looking good, right? At least on a YoY basis.....

They are:http://rawstory.com/2009/11/global-warming-sped-kyoto-scientists/

I was talking about the charts in:
Existing Home Sales Graphs

There is nothing wrong with your mindset. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image, make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next year hopefully, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your mindset. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to... The Outer Limits of the Housing Bubble

Of course, with the Feral Reserve buying all the mortgages anyway, maybe they already are...Dollar market thinks so.

Krugman's credibility is based on the fact the the left dominates university econ departments right now. If the right ever became ascendant in the universities, dolts like Ben Stein would be getting Nobel prizes.

Poor satan.. after all he did he gets the blame Sad

I'm scared....I need Conjure to hold me Dooooooooooooooom!!!

when i clicked on graph to enlarge,it wanted to know if i wanted to run,save,or cancel, is this a new feature?

What do you expect Krugman to say he has tasted the roast beef.

A glance at the existing sales chart shows recent data bucking the trend, seasonally and boom times.

I've received about 63x the recommended lifetime dose of Ben Steinery, with no ill effects so far, knock on wood.

"Feral Reserve" snort...Leave it to CMD to screw up my keyboard this early in the day...

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

What do you expect Krugman to say he has tasted the roast beef.

Is that what they're calling it these days?
Wink

Cinco-X wrote:

I was talking about the charts in:
Calculated Risk: Existing Home Sales Graphs

I know, it was left over from the last thread, and I was just making things seamless---

kristina did you look in the Future?? Feral Reserve for a Society going feral?? Smile
Freudian Keyboard??

gabyjan wrote:

it wanted to know if i wanted to run,save,or cancel, is this a new feature?

I keep looking for the Start New Game button. Wouldn't it be nice if we could just replay the economy and try different policies, like a video game, or the Sims?

cinco-x
but i like roast beef,like pot roast better
so is pot roast okay?

Evidence that the Mars-Venus thingy is still holds true

** Chiesi wore short skirts and low-cut tops, according to people who saw her over the years. One ploy was to go barhopping with a group, and then peel someone off to talk to on the dance floor, says a person who attended conferences with her.

A blond, blue-eyed former teenage beauty queen, Chiesi used her sexuality to build sources at male-dominated tech companies, says Deborah Stapleton, president of Stapleton Communications Inc., an investor relations company in Palo Alto, California.

“It amazes me that grown, wealthy, successful, hardworking men fell for that,” Stapleton says. Chiesi was proud of her network, too. “She bragged about her contacts in public,” Stapleton says**

really? what's so amazing?

I think that this is the key concept:
especially considering sales were artificially boosted by the tax credit

Meanwhile WS ignores it.
I'm waiting for the day when somebody will say "The king is naked"....then WS will drop 10%.

I deal with feral cats and the imagery of herding cats just popped into my head...Might be the Currently Smoking Cannibis

"It's still the debt, stupid." P. 1, top right:
PAYBACK TIME; Federal Government Faces Balloon in Debt Payments - NY Times

With the national debt now topping $12 trillion, the White House estimates that the government’s tab for servicing the debt will exceed $700 billion a year in 2019, up from $202 billion this year, even if annual budget deficits shrink drastically. Other forecasters say the figure could be much higher.

In concrete terms, an additional $500 billion a year in interest expense would total more than the combined federal budgets this year for education, energy, homeland security and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Every time I think CR is overestimating the foolishness of the masses, I am proven wrong.

U.S. existing-home sales rise 10.1% to 6.1 million - MarketWatch

Dow Breaks Losing Streak - WSJ.com

adornosghost wrote:

They are: Oceans rising faster than expected as climate change exceeds grimmest models | Raw Story
But this is probably leftist propaganda to deny my divine right to prosperity, and promote socialism!
Science is Satan.

Check your e-mail-

"so is pot roast okay? "

Only if you are served it at the White House!

Yoringe wrote:

kristina did you look in the Future?? Feral Reserve for a Society going feral??
Freudian Keyboard??

When I was in college, someone was trying to sell their "World processing software". It sounded like a Douglas Adams skit to me (Hitchikers Guide to the Galaxy).

some OT point to ponder.
As the USSR was going bust they didnt have 2 Wars going on....

gabyjan wrote:

cinco-x
but i like roast beef,like pot roast better
so is pot roast okay?

I like to keep an open mind about these things-

"so is pot roast okay? "

In CA for the moment. Course ex-hippie now Attorney General Jerry Brown's going after the Medical Marijuana guys for a bribe and shake down...erm...to stop them exploiting the needed pot heads...erm, ill who need pot..or something.

Cinco-X wrote:

Check your e-mail

OK, but then I get all those facebook messages

Bill Gross in today's NY Times:

Payback Time
Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government

“What a good country or a good squirrel should be doing is stashing away nuts for the winter. The United States is not only not saving nuts, it’s eating the ones left over from the last winter.”

Bill doesn't understand that the squirrel is on the platter for Thanksgiving.

Yoringe wrote:

As the USSR was going bust they didnt have 2 Wars going on....

But they did have Socialism-

Would the FDIC's sale of the Corus condo portfolio be included in new ore existing home sales?

They were winding down their intensities in 10 cities Afghanistan tour, just before the fall came, not unlike what we are doing now.

The United States will not be the only government competing to refinance huge debt. Japan, Germany, Britain and other industrialized countries have even higher government debt loads, measured as a share of their gross domestic product, and they too borrowed heavily to combat the financial crisis and economic downturn.

Nuke wrote:

If the right ever became ascendant in the universities, dolts like Ben Stein would be getting Nobel prizes.

Just wait until Ben and Tim get theirs for saving the economy!

Cinco-X wrote:

But they did have Socialism-

But they didn't have AIG et al. ...

Kind of evens out.

Writes Robert G. Hill:

Watching the Dallas Cowboys game on TV, I saw at the bottom of the screen and heard announcement, “We salute our men and women in uniform who are watching this game in 177 countries.”!!!

It wasn't just the Soviets. All empires fall for economic reasons.

I heard a little brown shoots anecdote over the weekend. Seems a local private education company has fired about half its tech support (which is a lot of people). The unlucky former employees fell in two categories: (1) those who had the least technical background who had been hired when IT people were scarce, and (2) those with more than four years of seniority who were being paid too much. They are being replaced by $10 an hour temp-to-hires.

The company is not in downsizing mode, so I guess they just figure if people are willing to work for $10 an hour and no benefits, why pay more?

Source was two employees who were not fired. I wasn't able to find any confirmation on line.

pictures from that Nytimes article....scary....

- NY Times

Long post, but lots to think about regarding Venezuelan political stability, which matters as it is the 3rd largest import source of crude (Canada, Mexico, Venezuela in August 2009 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Survey: Chavez support dropping
By Chris Kraul
November 23, 2009

EL CONSEJO, Venezuela - -- Power outages now interrupt production at Henrique Vollmer's rum distillery several times a week, cutting output, damaging equipment and jeopardizing the jobs of his 375 workers.

President Hugo Chavez has blamed low rainfall for not providing enough water to adequately power Venezuela's hydroelectric plants. But Vollmer said the problem has deeper roots.

"The blackouts have gotten more frequent over the last couple of years," said Vollmer, whose family-owned Santa Teresa distillery 50 miles southwest of Caracas is the nation's second-largest rum producer. "It's not just us -- glass, paper and oil companies are suffering too."

Power outages in this sugar-growing region these days last from a few minutes to four hours and are just one symptom of deteriorating conditions in this oil-rich but politically unsettled country. Others are regular outages of running water, even in Caracas hospitals. So are double-digit inflation, rising crime and a sinking economy.

Owing partly to the decline in public services, public confidence in Chavez is flagging, according to a new public opinion survey released last week by pollster Alfredo Keller. Only 35 percent of those polled said they would vote for Chavez-aligned candidates in September's legislative elections, compared with 46 percent saying they favor opposition candidates.

The number of respondents highlighting public services as the biggest problems they face grew to 19 percent this month from 5 percent in August, Keller said. On a more ominous note, two-thirds of 1,200 respondents to his poll believe that a popular uprising against Chavez is a possibility in this deeply polarized nation, Keller said.

"The public thinks the government isn't doing its job," Keller said, adding that rampant crime is the biggest public preoccupation. Caracas police reported 40 murders over one recent 36-hour period.

The controversy over public services swirls as new figures show Venezuela's economy is dropping deeper into recession, even as other countries in Latin America are emerging from the global crisis, said Francisco Monaldi, an economist at IESA, a Caracas graduate school and think tank.

Venezuela's central bank reported that Venezuela's total output of goods and services declined 4.5 percent over the quarter ended Sept. 30 when compared with the gross national product of the previous three months. Unemployment also is rising.

"The worsening trend is clear and contrasts with most of the region. The figure of economic decline was worse than anyone expected," Monaldi said, adding that he believes Chavez can reverse the trend with a "large increase in public spending"that many expect in advance of next year's legislative elections.

Chavez responded to the economic news by saying that the measurement being used is an old capitalist method and that new forms should be used to measure economies in socialist transition. Chavez took office in February 1999.
Survey: Chavez support dropping -- chicagotribune.com

High 5s at the Treasury and the independent Federal Reserve! Job WELL DONE!!

im confused. wasnt there also a chart recently showing a low in mortgage applications, originations or somesuch?
is there really that much mattress cash out there buying up houses?

Nuke wrote:

Remember when Cheney said deficits don't matter and Krugman blew a gasket.

Krugman said deficits matter during good times--not at all times. Context is important--Cheney was talking up a useless war during a bubble era.

And China does have a Border with Afghanistan i think?? So may the Wars help you to stay solvent?? Would be kind of perverse....

creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:

pictures from that Nytimes article....scary....

It'd be even scarier if they weren't lying about those projected deficits between now and 2020-

I'm still not willing to concede that we've seen the high in months supply. I see demand exhaustion coming. I see local evidence of flipper supply building and in my very local neighborhood "moving on with life" capitulation. I'm also seeing the investment side beginning to worry about cash flow going forward and that is likely to slow their purchases.

There are literally millions of houses that need to change hands right now and pretending that because they aren't on the MLS that they don't exist only means they are someplace bleeding one or more peoples' balance sheets. We still need a change in attitude. For decades even nigh on half a century time has been the friend of impaired assets. That is not the case now.

A friend is married to a Filipina, and has spent a number of stints in Manila, where he says it's commonplace to have power outages like what are happening in Venezuela right now, but then again, the Philippines doesn't have any oil reserves...

Nuke wrote:

If the right ever became ascendant in the universities, dolts like Ben Stein would be getting Nobel prizes.

Ain't gonna happen. Stein is a monetarist neocon. The Chicago school has been discredited by this recession so the only school left standing on the Right is the Austrian school and there is no way in Hell that Academia will ever embrace Mises, Hayek, et al. They can't handle the truth.

JimPortlandOR (
Bill Gross in today's NY Times:

Payback Time
Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government

“What a good country or a good squirrel should be doing is stashing away nuts for the winter. The United States is not only not saving nuts, it’s eating the ones left over from the last winter.”

Bill doesn't understand that the squirrel is on the platter for Thanksgiving.

I agree, but shouldn't we have been saving our 'acorns' back in 2004-2006. Hard to save them in January, when they are buried in slush. Squirrel! In Vino Veritas

Mel wrote:

Krugman said deficits matter during good times--not at all times. Context is important

LOL! What about scale ? Does that not matter either?

bearly wrote:

Krugman said deficits matter during good times--not at all times. Context is important

LOL! What about scale ? Does that not matter either?

Trade deficits are way more important than budget deficits--and on that, everyone was negligent.

Whats there with the Names.. a financial Dude called Bill.. a former paranoid VP called Dick( his puppet called Bush).. is this high grade mocking???

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

GOLD @ 1200 by week's end?

Gold has been on a parabolic trajectory since July. Can it go on like that for ever?

Rant

How is it that a site like counterpunch can raise 68G's and Kcoop can't get more than 5 tiles donated!

Christopher Ketcham: The Dumbest Newspapers at the Center of the World

The relevence is whether this is status quo, or a deterioration of recent conditions experienced under the current regime which promised change - only, it was supposed to be for the better - and this in the context of the constellation of multiple deteriorating conditions which are all of recent origin (under current regime)...

After waking up this morning and hearing all the "good" economic news my wife went into "Angry Saver" mode.  Damn that was scary!! 

Now I know what it's like to live with Angry Saver. Lol

I was half expecting her to do Cramers infamous "They know nothing" meltdown. 

dude says the squirrels are gonna starve, but how does that effect us?

Hussman:

"The past decade has been largely the experience of watching tanks rolling over a hilltop to attack the villagers celebrating below. Repeatedly, one could observe these huge objects rolling over the horizon, with an ominous knowledge that things would not work out well. But repeatedly, nobody cared as long as it looked like there might be a little punch left in the bowl. As a result, long-term investors in the S&P 500 have achieved negative total returns over a full decade....

From my perspective, we are again at the point where we should be alert for tanks."

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

dude says the squirrels are gonna starve, but how does that effect us

We end up eating scrawny squirrels-

Ha: Chavez losing popularity because his energy policy isn't socialist enough!

Jefferson's casual call for regular revolution knows no ideology. China certainly seems ripe for a communist uprising.

The tile idea is pretty cool, but it takes a while for us low tech types to figure out how to work something like that. I don't have pictures of my own in a web format and somebody already posted the guys with chainsaws.

On the bright side, gas is pushing 2.90 a gallon in my area. With any luck, and a little QE, we'll get 3.00 for Christmas.

....I have it from a reputable source that AGW has NOTHING to do with the sea-level rise..........it has to do specifically with a GIANT PILE OF TRASH in the Pacific...........twice the size of Texas and 100' deep............mostly consisting of plastic garbage.........so forget about it.........there's nothing that can be done about it anyway.........get Asia and Europe to clean up their act on THEIR side of the Pond first, then lets talk - I'm tired of being the World Mommy for the rest of the whiners, accusers, and thieves, anyway - I quit!
.
- NY Times
.
Time to milk, anyway...... Black Star Ranch

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

What do you expect Krugman to say he has tasted the roast beef.

Obama Thanks Hollywood With Coveted Invites To First White House State Dinner
Looks like a lot of folk in the cultural elite will get to "taste the roast beef"

"..I have it from a reputable source that AGW has NOTHING to do with the sea-level rise"

Glenn Beck?

It looks like (first chart) that since May about 160,000 more homes have been sold than last year.

Someone remind me...how many 1st time homebuyer claims have been filed?

Gotta be that global cooling thingy.

Yahoo!:

Black Star Ranch wrote:

Rubbish in the Pacific - The New York Times > Science > Slide Show > Slide 1 of 12
.

LOL! Rover was in the first picture!

poic wrote:

"..I have it from a reputable source that AGW has NOTHING to do with the sea-level rise"
Glenn Beck?

Actually, Glenn got it from Sarah P. And she got it from the moose she shot, in its dying breath.

What makes you assume the US isn't responsible for more than its share of the garbage in the gyres? Is it the immense political clout of the tree-huggers everyone ridicules?

definitely green shoots for Main Street. not so much for BigLaw.

Law.com - Survey Finds Revenue, Profits Down at Law Firms
New York law firms experienced a 9 percent drop in revenue through the third quarter, according to a new survey.... Industrywide, gross revenue fell 6.9 percent and net income fell 6.1 percent, Wachovia said. "What that tells you is there is going to be a lot more riding on the fourth quarter," said Jeff Grossman, national managing director at Wachovia, which is part of Wells Fargo.

Thanks, energy. I am shocked that Venezuela is such a large supplier to the US still. I guess Senor Chavez speaks out of both sides of his mouth. I shouldn't be surprised that regular media rarely to never mention that in spite of Chavez's bluster he doesn't mind selling oil to the US.

According to that EIA data, in Aug 09 the Persian Gulf countries only supplied 13% of the US's total oil imports. And OPEC as a whole only supplied about one third of the total. What the ???? US policy should be a lot more focused on Mexico and not the Persian Gulf.


Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/23/2009 - 11:42 am

We end up eating scrawny squirrels-

Survival of the fittest... as it was with Vampire Squid from Hell to us, so it shall be with us to Squirrel!.

From Friday:
Foreclosures will keep rising through 2010, report says

Mortgage Bankers Assn. says delinquencies and home repossessions have hit a new high. Blaming job losses for most of the pain, it sees a continued surge in foreclosures through all of next year.
One in seven U.S. home loans was past due or in foreclosure as of Sept. 30, putting that quarterly delinquency measure at its highest level since 1972, when the Mortgage Bankers Assn. began reporting it. At the beginning of this year, 1 in 10 loans was past due or in foreclosure.

"Thanks, energy. I am shocked that Venezuela is such a large supplier to the US still. I guess Senor Chavez speaks out of both sides of his mouth. I shouldn't be surprised that regular media rarely to never mention that in spite of Chavez's bluster he doesn't mind selling oil to the US."

and you don't it humorous that we buy oil from our arch enemy?

Mel, deficits don't matter when you are the one benefiting from the bestowing of the debt. By glod, it so Orwellian! The dollar carry trade is still working and gold is loving it. With all the money creation on both sides, this is turning into a game of chicken between the wall street hedge funds and china. Maybe we should call it THE DOLLAR KERRY TRADE in honor of John Kerry who voted for NAFTA, GATT, the WTO and permanent Most Favored status for China.

Doesn't oil from hades give off a sulphur-like smell?

I don't think Kerry was alone voting that way--and, almost all the nay votes were Democrats.

poic wrote:

"Thanks, energy. I am shocked that Venezuela is such a large supplier to the US still. I guess Senor Chavez speaks out of both sides of his mouth. I shouldn't be surprised that regular media rarely to never mention that in spite of Chavez's bluster he doesn't mind selling oil to the US."
and you don't it humorous that we buy oil from our arch enemy?

It's about the same as from Mexico, and a lot less than from Canada. I'm surprised that we import oil from Belgium-

When did we extend most favored status to the Unabankers?

Mel, not many! But all right already, nuff said about the politicians and their lobbyists

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

When did we extend most favored status to the Unabankers?

We didn't. They extended most favored status to us in 1913.

On my submarine, we had a saying: "Dilution is the solution to pollution." It's a big Pacific and garbage might kill Vampire Squid from Hell

"Maybe we should call it THE DOLLAR KERRY TRADE in honor of XXX who voted for NAFTA, GATT, the WTO and permanent Most Favored status for China"

please insert favorite name for XXX that fits your own slanted view.

Recommended choices if you are Republican are Bill Clinton and John Kerry
if you are Democrat George W Bush

please note that logic is not required.

poic wrote:

and you don't it humorous that we buy oil from our arch enemy?

And what about Iran? Iran gains $5bn by shifting from US dollar

Hugo is going to make us bow toward Venezuela, and kiss a picture of his azz before we fill the F150.

I think there was a strong consensus on this board to leave Global warming for after hours and week ends

t r orwell wrote:

Mel, not many! But all right already, nuff said about the politicians and their lobbyists

You brought up Kerry--trying to put the blame on the side that didn't vote lock step for those bills. Want to drop the subject when you get called? Kinda cowardly--kinda Bushian.

Hudson Institute Economic Report
PeeDeeEff; be Warned!

Housing construction declined unexpectedly in October. Total starts decreased 10.6%
and permits declined 4.0%. Single-family starts decreased 6.8%, while multi-family
(buildings with five units or more) starts declined 33.3% to a rate of 48,000. Building
permits for single-family homes declined 0.2%, and permits for multi-family structures
with five or more units decreased 18.3%.
In addition, foreclosures and delinquencies are at record highs (combined percentage of
loans on foreclosures and delinquencies was 14.4% in the third quarter of 2009) and as
unemployment rises, rates are expected to go even higher. Generally the last thing
people give up is their home, after cutting back on other spending and exhausting
savings, which is why foreclosure rates are a lagging indicator.
Exhibit 2: retail sales.
Consumers still lack the confidence to go out shopping. Excluding the volatile auto
sector, retail sales increased in October by a mere 0.2%. Although total retail sales rose
1.4%, they were aided by rising purchases at motor vehicles and part dealers (7.4%) due
to the cash for clunkers program. Small increases in sales were seen at clothing and
clothing accessories stores (0.4%), health and personal care stores (0.5%), food services
and drinking places (1.2%), general merchandise stores (0.9%), and nonstore retailers
(1.0%).
Fortunately core inflation, excluding food and energy, remains low. The core consumer
price index rose 0.2% in October, and the CPI for all items increased 0.3% in October,
following a 0.2% increase in September. Over the past year, it has fallen by 0.2%. The
energy index increased by 1.5% and the food index by 1.0%. The core producer price
index decreased by 0.6%, in contrast to an increase in the PPI for finished goods of 0.3%
in October, following a 0.6% decrease in September. The PPI has shown a decline of
1.9% over the past year. Both energy and food prices increased 1.6%.
For more information, contact Senior Fellow Diana Furchtgott-Roth, 202.974.6450

adornosghost wrote:

And what about Iran? Iran gains $5 bn by shifting from US dollar

If this is true, there should be a fantastic opportunity for arbitrage. Get out there and make some money!

poic wrote:

and you don't it humorous that we buy oil from our arch enemy?

Oil is largely fungible. If Chavez sells it to anybody, it still determines the price we pay. Boycott Citco if you want to. That's owned by Venezuela.

Top 3 contributor to global warming- Coal!

To produce Electricity

So, those ranting on this forum are hypocrits

i can live with that

less shipping costs to buy from Venezuela. However, since oil is a fungible commodity (broadly speaking) it doesn't matter where the supply disruption comes from so to think that the US can only focus on Mexico and Venezuela and think that a disruption in the ME will have no impact on it - I don't think works.

Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:

Top 3 contributor to global warming- Coal!
To produce Electricity
So, those ranting on this forum are hypocrits

Please explain your rationale-


Cinco-X (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/23/2009 - 12:05 pm

Hudson Institute Economic Report
"Consumers still lack the confidence to go out shopping."

No, they lack the money.

We're already at $3.00 per gallon in the Redmond, Wa area!

Don't know where we will be at Christmat time though. I only drive about 400 miles per month.

Glad that Obama is here though, I might be sent to Gitmo for being Un-American if Cheney were still in charge.

Mel, frankly I am not partial to either side, plenty of blame to go around. Peace my friend! Btw, did you use to run a diner in Phoenix? OT, where's our good friend Slumdog? Ha,ha,ha,ha

Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:

Top 3 contributor to global warming- Coal!

I thought it was water vapor - Global Warming: A closer look at the numbers

speed racer wrote:

We're already at $3.00 per gallon in the Redmond, Wa area!

given the value of the dollar, imagine how cheap oil must really be right now. Evil

It looks like (first chart) that since May about 160,000 more homes have been sold than last year.

Someone remind me...how many 1st time homebuyer claims have been filed?

I'll answer my own question. A TIGTA report said that as of July 17, 2009, 1.1 million FTHB credit claims had been filed. (Includes the 2008 "loan" version.)

Doesn't include any claims filed after July 17 or those who will claim on their 2009 returns.

Even of only 20% of these claims were actually induced by the FTHB credit, that's 220,000 sales either pulled forward (or created out of nothing by purchasers who won't own for long).

crazyv wrote:

I think there was a strong consensus on this board to leave Global warming for after hours and week ends

I agree, if that was the case. Economics is based on superstition, climate science is not. This is a site dealing with economics.
Dollar? Saudi Arabia, South Korea, China, Venezuela, Sudan and Russia have taken steps to replace the US dollar in their foreign exchange reserves, as well.

Step right up and buy your over priced over valued ball and chain.... Ticking time bomb

Terry wrote:

Top 3 contributor to global warming- Coal!
I thought it was water vapor - Global Warming: A closer look at the numbers

and here i am all this time thinking it was the sun.

picosec wrote:

It looks like (first chart) that since May about 160,000 more homes have been sold than last year.

Someone remind me...how many 1st time homebuyer claims have been filed?

Heard about the little boy who was asked in class how much is 2+2. Boy was silent, teacher got mad and said I know you know the answer I have seen you do it in your fathers shop. To which the boy replied - but teacher you haven't told me whether you are buying or selling. So picosec are you bearish or bullish- or do you want the facts in which case you must be insane Smile

Those so concerned with global warming should be doing all they can to reduce their own footprint, per se.

there message would hold more weight if they walked to a street corner holding a sign

My only question is when do the unqualified no skin in the game ($8K credit and FHA 3.5% downpayment, c'mon) people the government tricked into buying this year start to show up meaningfully as NOD's?

Spring?

New FHA rules could help condo market — for now

http://orlando.bizjournals.com/orlando/stories/2009/11/23/story2.html?b=1258952400^2470031

ahhh, the beauty of statistics

you notice i never mentioned the order, or the other two!

I do reduce my carbon footprint.

I can't speak for assholes who believe they have a god-given right to burn whatever they want.

he doesn't mind selling oil to the US.

Chavez was giving away heating oil to low income people in the US, among other acts For 3 challengers, party's not over - The Boston Globe see the 7th paragraph--that's not the only donation Chavez made. I think it was more that the Bushies didn't want to buy from Chavez. Instead they started to develop a closer relationship with the very corrupt Nigerian gov't, as Nigeria seems to have quite a bit of oil and apparently there have been some finds off of the coast. Can't remember where I saw the article, but I read something about the US military graciously "offering" assistance to Nigeria, in quelling civil disorder. Don't want anything to get in the way of oil extraction.

Cinco-X wrote:

If this is true, there should be a fantastic opportunity for arbitrage. Get out there and make some money!

I actually have been doing alright with oil futures as a bet against the dollar. Actually, a little better than "Alright".

generally , those who burn all they want do so thru trade... they (generally) don't steal it?

Speaking of cowardly and the northeast area of our country, Roman Catholic Bishop Tobin's attack on Patrick Kennedy and revocation of his communion rights is so hypocritical, especially so soon after his father Ted's death and after all the cases of pedophilia under Cardinal Law's jurisdiction in the Boston area.

Bullard say's the last two recoveries were jobless. So just because we aren't seeing job growth doesn't mean there is no recovery, it means joblessrecoverie's are a new trend.
Jim Bullard Is Not a Dove St. Louis Fed President Talks Bubbles Recovery and Fed Audit: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

We trade dollars for oil, burn it, then print more dollars.

I suppose it wasn't "stealing" until Madoff confessed.

Speaking of cowardly and the northeast area of our country

I think if the IRS were to enforce the "tax-exempt or political, but not both" laws, bishops would quickly STFU.

Wouldn't it be nice if we could just replay the economy and try different policies, like a video game, or the Sims?

A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.

Take a name asswipe wrote:

So just because we aren't seeing job growth doesn't mean there is no recovery, it means jobless recoverie's are a new trend.

It's so much easier to extrapolate from past experience to predict the future, instead of actually figuring out what's going on.

And if you ignore all those times in which that type of lazy analysis was completely wrong--for example, most of 2008 and 2009--it actually is fairly accurate.

I actually think that no religious organization should have tax exempt status. If they have activities that meet a secular purpose- sheltering the home less, feeding the hungry those activities should be tax exempt. BTW I oppose tax deduction for charitable giving. I think it will make charities more efficient by causing donors to be more vigilant. Plus why should tax payer funds be directed by a donor- which essentially what it is.

noob - The past is usually a valid predictor of behavior in the long term, slightly less so in midrange. It's (IMHO) suicidal as a predictor of short-term trends.

Reminds me of the Star Trek Voyager episode where a time traveling scientist is trying to saving his planet's empire by running history altering computations from a time bubble ship. He can never get it right and restore the empire. Doesn't realize that he is the one factor he hasn't calculated.

A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.

Let's play "Global Economic Meltdown."
HOW ABOUT A NICE GAME OF CHESS?

Later. Right now let's play "Global Economic Meltdown."
VERY WELL.

rosethorn,

One would think - IIRC, the latest stat I saw for PEMEX was a year over year production decline of just over 7% on a country wide basis (the single largest field in Mexico, Cantarell, is the 38% decline story)

Chess? When the Vampire Squid from Hell is both the Black king and the White king, what difference does it make who wins, except to the respective team of pieces and pawns?

Yeah, there are a few strange ones in there - Korea, wtf?

Ah... there are some product imports in their as well, there is a little tab at the top of the page to select just crude:
U.S. Crude Oil Imports

Agree almost 100% (I might retain a small deduction in the interest of individual allocation of tax funds, under strictly limited circumstances), and I've said so.

OT...Mish is on a roll...
Mish thread - 'The Global Warming Religion'
Letters to Mish - 'Many were from religious zealots of global warming and as you surmise they were unprintable.'
Other propaganda crusades...Vietnam...'The Domino Theory' was a religion.'
WMDs...Bush religious beliefs...the military machine promoted the war...
Al Gore's crusade...propaganda trumps science...

I actually think that no religious organization should have tax exempt status

I agree with that.

But I'll settle for enforcing existing laws until new ones are passed.

Nuke wrote:

Hayek called this crap "scientism".

Sounds like a great idea for a tile...

"I think there was a strong consensus on this board to leave Global warming for after hours and week ends "

or pigged threads ~

What's happening is just an updated game of Monopoly...with super-sized leverage...

barfly -
Was there a vote on OT rules or is the 'consensus' from the consensus makers like it 'works' in the real world? Smile

I have been puzzling over the propaganda wars being fought in the here and now lately...not to don my Tinfoil Hat, but I honestly believe at some level there has been a conspiracy based on the simple fact that too many people=too few resources for a technologically advanced society without some kind of energy advance. The resulting war of ideas from going stone age to support population through draconian measures to the new Utopian dreams of a 200 million max human population is unfolding now. I think we are witnessing firsthand what happens when governments become irrelevant and ideas move people beyond duty to country to a particular action or calling. I've said it before, but this is a transitional time for mankind. I don't think there will be any solid ground to stand upon for some time. We are being pulled one way and another. I fear many will be ripped apart in this tug a war.

merchants of fear wrote:

What's happening is just an updated game of Monopoly...with super-sized leverage...

That's not true. Following the real rules when someone lands on a property they can either buy it from the bank or it goes up for auction immediately. Just like the real world used to work banks disposed of property ASAP at the highest price. That's why the board game has lasted longer than our banking system.

gruntled wrote:

Gold has been on a parabolic trajectory since July. Can it go on like that for ever?

No ... that's the point.

Was there a Conjure communique over the weekend? Or is it still coming shortly?

"...given the value of the dollar, imagine how cheap oil must really be right now."

using JD's equation, one oz. of the barbarous = (roughly)390 gallons of gas

While I'd like to think no news is good news, I'm curious to hear whether anyone's having issues this morning with the new theme.

(BTW, once hoocoobluetwo's stable, I'm going to remove hoocooblue)

OK barfly...on topic...the Keynesian religion is driving a fake recovery with the outcome coming in devaluation, deflation, credit destruction, chronic unemployment...all in the name of economic religion of failed overspending/printing policies...


noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/23/2009 - 12:42 pm

Most people can use the past to predict the future behaviour of their car, but as soon as the engine starts knocking and blue smoke starts billowing, that knowledge is useless.

At that point, what's needed is a mechanic who will diagnose the problem and repair the problem.

Yes. It's a state-change effectively. Arguably being the 'mechanic' is exactly what TPTB are trying to do to 'fix' the economy. Viewing it as some sort of mad machine with dials and buttons one can tweak and reorient. But perversely, this attempt may itself be the root of an even bigger problem if the economy is not, in fact, a deterministic machine. Wink

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

But perversely, this attempt may itself be the root of an even bigger problem if the economy is not, in fact, a deterministic machine.

Indeed. And there's little evidence to support the hypothesis that it is.

dawg,
So rename the new game Derivatives/Securitization 'Monopoly'...deregulated version...

kcoop wrote:

While I'd like to think no news is good news

I have windows XP, Firefox 3.0.15. The bottom art of the status box ("The browser is checking . . ") is clipped, and I can't see the bottom of the scroll bar on the right hand side.

I sure liked you better as 1cs...

All the advancements in deep well,horizontal driling, seismolgy,refining, shipping....who should be compensated for that? should we just give it away? these miraculous technologies

Gold has been on a trajectory since the end of 2001...

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

noob - Really? Uh oh.

Well, it might be somewhat deterministic. It's as deterministic as mass human psychology, I suppose. Which is less deterministic than cars or even weather, but slightly more deterministic than individual psychology.

But with fancy spreadsheets and economic 'dashboards', I'm sure they feel like engineers at Ferrari.

At that point, what's needed is a mechanic who will diagnose the problem and repair the problem.

Dude, you ran out of oil and the engine is about to seize, that clicking sound is the CV joints, and the transmission bands are slipping. Pop the hood, unscrew the radiator cap, drive a new car under it, re-place the cap.

Eric, that version should be using Legacy and Mobile by default. I'm only supporting 3.5+ for this.

energyecon wrote:

Yeah, there are a few strange ones in there - Korea, wtf?

Just a guess - would these imports include transit/refining countries as well?


noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/23/2009 - 12:56 pm

Well, it might be. It's as deterministic as mass human psychology, I suppose. Which is less deterministic than cars or even weather, but slightly more deterministic than individual psychology.

But with fancy spreadsheets and economic 'dashboards', I'm sure they feel like an engineer at Ferrari.
From my ivory tower (or skyscraper or private jet), all those silly human beings down below just look like little moving dots on a chart.

merchants of fear wrote:

dawg,
So rename the new game Derivatives/Securitization 'Monopoly'...deregulated version...

Think of all the money we can save in production costs by not having any rules to print up.

Cinco-X wrote:

Support for Health Care Plan Falls to New Low

If all these mean free-loading useless old farts had to pay their own way - instead of living off of socialist medicare - it wouldn't be low.

Eric, that version should be using Legacy and Mobile by default. I'm only supporting 3.5+ for this.

Heh.... okie dokie, I'll se if my plugins still work with 3.5 and upgrade.............

merchants of fear, granted the jury is still out about the causes of global warming and that we are still in discovery mode with preventative measures proceeding rather quickly, but isn't Shedlock a little OT? How are the bearish trades on municipal and high yield bonds, bearish the stock market, bullish on treasury bonds, and neutral on gold working out for him? He's about do for a hot streak after a year of being wrong, isn't he? You betcha!

Vonbek777 - '...puzzling over the propaganda wars being fought in the here and now lately...'
This Crash has to be legitimized in the hearts and minds of the public...and there must be damage control and a cooling down the mark for the victims and losers of the bubble/bust deflation cycle...

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

From my ivory tower (or skyscraper or private jet), all those silly human beings down below just look like little moving dots on a chart.

Yes, they almost behave....rationally.

We should really model their behaviour. We could leverage the work of other scientists and model the movement of those dots with formuli from other rational disciplines, like hydraulic flow calculations, for example. And then we could use that information to predict behaviour!

It'll be perfect.

Then when the SHTF, a new version...Mad Max Monoploy will be released with no rules included in the 'game'...

poic wrote:

please note that logic is not required.

As long as both sides has 35% of their dumbass true-believers, the nobility is safe. The peasants are their own worst enemies.

If all these mean free-loading useless old farts had to pay their own way - instead of living off of socialist medicare - it wouldn't be low.

That's why they're building the bill with "triggers." The private system will fail and go bankrupt as more and more people cannot afford it. I really see eventual federal intervention as a sure thing...the outcome of which is and will remain uncertain for some time.

Cinco-X wrote:

Please explain your rationale-

The top contributor to global warming is people. But neither the socialists nor the fascists can address that simple truth.

Disclaimer: Thinks gw is real, but doesn't care because I'll be dead before anything bad happens.

NaRm,
Thought 50% or so usually don't even vote...

Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:

How is it that a site like counterpunch can raise 68G's and Kcoop can't get more than 5 tiles donated!

+1

C'mon, belly up to the trough, folks. I'm just waiting for my Zimbabwe $100 trillion dollar bill to arrive in the mail so I can scan it for my next tile... what's YOUR excuse?

gw is real $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ or yen or euros...'taxman' (Beatles)

Was there a Conjure communique over the weekend? Or is it still coming shortly?

Conjure's communique is in the works.

I've seen parts of it and it's worth the wait.

PAYBACK TIME; Federal Government Faces Balloon in Debt Payments - NY Times
The United States government is financing its more than trillion-dollar-a-year borrowing with i.o.u.’s on terms that seem too good to be true.But that happy situation, aided by ultralow interest rates, may not last much longer.

Gee what will Timmy 'water boy' Getihner for Vampire Squid from Hell do Big smile

With cap & trade you can just pay to pollute...not really environmentalism...

Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:

Those so concerned with global warming should be doing all they can to reduce their own footprint, per se.

Yes. If the GW pessimists would stop having kids there wouldn't be a problem. It's the same with the economic bears. Optimism will solve all problems. When the earth's population is 900 billion people and office cubicles are 2x2x10 boxes the optimists will STILL be exclaiming how life "just can't get any better".

So rename the new game Derivatives/Securitization 'Monopoly'...deregulated version...

I think the title you're looking for is Calvinball.

It'll be a lot easier to fit on the box cover, too.

mp wrote:

[Was there a Conjure communique over the weekend? Or is it still coming shortly?]
Conjure's communique is in the works.
I've seen parts of it and it's worth the wait.

Can't we feed him an investment banker or two to speed the process?

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

I can't speak for assholes who believe they have a god-given right to burn whatever they want.

And you never will. Duplicity and self-delusion are part of life. You can't argue with people that create BS in the brains and generate happiness from it. Optimism is all that matters.

Mook wrote:

Calvinball.

Now there's a worthy tile image if ever there was one.

Can't we feed him an investment banker or two to speed the process?

There's your time, my time, everybody else's time and Conjure's Time.

merchants of fear wrote:

Other propaganda crusades...Vietnam...'The Domino Theory' was a religion.'

The nobility on each side managing the story in their peasant dumbasses' brains. That what sycophants are supposed to do.

merchants of fear wrote:

Thought 50% or so usually don't even vote...

But who knows if this would just make things worse (or not). Perhaps all 50% are perfectly happy.

Cinco-X wrote:

Fortunately core inflation, excluding food and energy, remains low

I propose that we NEVER link any inflation stats that have this language....fortunately, the operation was a success. Too bad the patient starved/froze to death!!!!!

See if you could reinstall dueling, then those optimists could meet, I don't know say a nice medieval war hammer up close and personal. It might bring a new perspective to life.

Cinco-X wrote: If this is true, there should be a fantastic opportunity for arbitrage. Get out there and make some money!

then

adornosghost wrote: I actually have been doing alright with oil futures as a bet against the dollar. Actually, a little better than "Alright".

For clarity, folks, an "arbitrage" is when you find a market dislocation such that you can purchase both ends of the trade and collect some profit closing them -- so there's no actual risk. This is quite different from a well-placed "bet" on one-side of a trade.

Keep Calm and Carry On.

so does conjure get a guest link or is this another link within a thread?

NaRm,
Hey...just think pretty soon 50% or so of Americans may not even have addresses (or jobs)...don't ya just love our economic elite policies?

man, your depressin me...who pissed in your punch bowl....let me know...I'll ask MP to send conjure over for reprimands

Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:

man, your depressin me...who pissed in your punch bowl....let me know...I'll ask MP to send conjure over for reprimands

I think yogi's been going through a rough patch. He was pretty short-tempered this weekend, too.

Bearded Spock wrote:

Oil is largely fungible

Untrue. In particular the heavier crudes, often with higher sulfur content, require very specific refinery characteristics to be able to handle that crude.

Just remember...It Can't Happen Here...and everything will be alright!

Vonbek777 wrote:

See if you could reinstall dueling...

I'd make a kick-ass second.

merchants of fear wrote:

Derivatives/Securitization 'Monopoly'...deregulated version...

Not successful as a board game -- the person who played the banker always won.

DCRogers wrote:

what's YOUR excuse?

I'm dithering over what picture to subject everyone to,...

Gavshire Hathaway wrote:

Was there a Conjure communique over the weekend? Or is it still coming shortly?

mp said "it's in the pipe.".

DC...hey...that game must be rigged...no fun...

with apologies to roberta flack

Strumming my pain with red fingers
Singing my life with his cheap building materials
Killing me softly with thier drywall
Killing me softly with drywall
Telling my whole life with his toxic chemicals
Killing me softly, with drywall

I heard they hang nicely, I heard they were cheap all the while
And so I came to hang them, now listen to my child
And where was the EPA, to test this young drywall, it just burned my eyes

My family was all flushed with fever, embarrassed by the doubting crowd
I felt we would better, but now I scream out loud
I prayed that he would live long, but the toxins just carry on

they priced it as if he knew me, and smiled at my dark despair
and then they looked right through me because I was dead, I wasn't there
And they just kept on singing, singing americans like are toxic cheap stuff
so lets just foul up the air in the cheap houses of disrepair....

killing me softly with drywall

Feds find association between drywall, corrosion - Yahoo! News

t r orwell wrote:

He's about do for a hot streak after a year of being wrong, isn't he?

I like reading Mish, but he let's his Libertarian righteousness cloud his judgment (I think). Libertarians are no better than Socialists, Fascists, or Fundamentalists. Their "ism" only works if they pretend average people don't exist and pretend that the smart amoral scumbags are controllable.

can't resist

Oil is largely fungible

If so , then there would'nt need to be 'pig's in the pipe'

so does conjure get a guest link or is this another link within a thread?

When Conjure releases the document to me, I will deposit it on a free download site.

What I get from watching too much Have Gun Will Travel growing up. Wink

merchants of fear wrote:

don't ya just love our economic elite policies?

I personally don't, but until a majority of people stop voting Republicrat - because of non-issues like global-warming and fornicating-harlots - the ONLY real issue that matters, who (Hu) has the loot, will NEVER be addressed.

ee<

Was it you who said that the Valero Delaware refinery that is shutting down refined high sulfur oil?

Wouldn't it be interesting if new houses had to have a window sticker like new cars stating percentage of materials US or Country of origin of imported materials and the imported labor to assemble? If it's good for cars, it's good for houses.

creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:

Telling my whole life with his toxic chemicals

In the fabulous 50's we didn't worry about toxic chemicals in dry wall. We drank toxic chemicals. And we liked it too. Damn liberal pansies worried about toxic chemicals!

I like that idea....plus it will open up more govt jobs Big smile

If it's good for cars, it's good for houses.

It's good for US Army helicopters too, but it won't happen.

We drank toxic chemicals

---This explains some things...

I know I was one lucky kid. How did I survive my childhood...mercury on the playground...chemicals in my food...I swallowed my fluoride treatment once in school when we were stationed in Germany... amazing anyone is alive at all.

Did you like the asbestosis NaRm?

V777,
Mercury in your mouth as fillings...

mp wrote:

When Conjure releases the document to me, I will deposit it on a free download site.

For some reason, I thought Conjure was your alter ego. Conjure is someone else?

merchants of fear wrote:

Did you like the asbestosis NaRm?

We ate asbestosis for breakfast! It's these environnmental wacho's that have ruined this great and glorious nation with their hunt for toxic chemicals and global warming. A little bit of Asbestosis and Toxic Chemicals never hurt anybody.

Who (Hu) has the loot will never be addressed...' - NaRm
Word.

mp wrote:

When Conjure releases the document to me, I will deposit it on a free download site

Q: Is conjure a ladies man ? I need some tips on personal grroming, from an expert.

merchants of fear wrote:

Mercury in your mouth as fillings...

More liberal nonsense. You think a little bit of Mercury ever hurt anybody? We used to drink Mercury! Straight!

Wonder how much impact this will have on home sales, foreclosures and REO sales: Chinese Drywall Linked to Metal Corrosion, U.S. Says (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

Remember the lead tube toothpaste came in? Can I sue the Cali School system for teaching me to clean brake and clutch dust off with compressed air and no filter mask? Asbestos and other dangerous chemicals?

Yeah NaRm...if people were really worried about global pollution (and indoor pollution) and Gore's message...then why are some of the global warmers still smoking?

Actually they do. My husbands grandmother just died from mesothelioma, a cancer caused by asbestos.

cant we just bury this money black hole known as GM

GM wants gov'ts to help pay $4.9 bn restructuring - Yahoo! News

europeans will embrace this like chasity bono embraced being a woman

HomeGnome wrote:

Was it you who said that the Valero Delaware refinery that is shutting down refined high sulfur oil?

One of the articles commented about this, and the fact that the spread between the incoming crude had declined making it less profitable.

IMHO, I think this might be a good long term play for somebody to buy up.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

Remember the lead tube toothpaste came in? Can I sue the Cali School system for teaching me to clean brake and clutch dust off with compressed air and no filter mask?

Arrrgh. You just triggered my hypochondria! I have nightmares about blowing asbestos dust out of brake drums.

I hate to bring up the dreaded topic... but why does everyone who's a skeptic on man-made global warming always bring up Al Gore as if he invented the science (or assumes that the theory magically popped up sometime in the early 90s.) There have been plenty of false and phony research works made in the name of evolution over the past 100+ years. Does that mean evolution was a crack science?

Given that Mish and Denniger are great financial reads, I really wish they'd keep their topics focused on finance.

sm_landlord,

SMCC and SAMOHI. About the only health problem I don't have.

Hmmm...don't recall that but then again what is the first thing to go as we begin to get older...can't quite recall...

Here is bit on that:

Various EPA legislations have driven the refineries to more complex process configurations with billions of new investment. With high international crude prices the refiners counted on the discount of heavy sour crude to recover their investment in hydro-processing and coker units, However, the worldwide slowdown in crude demand let OPEC eliminate the discount for heavy sour crude, letting the US refineries holding the bag. Of course, the independent marketing companies like Sunoco, Valero and Tesoro were hit the hardest, And DOE just stood by and did nothing. No support for coke gasification and or coal liquefaction. The winner is of course Thomas O'Malley, having sold Tosco to Phillips and Premcor to Valero and built up Petroplus in Europe with relatively low complexity, making money with sweet crude. Export to the US of cheap gasoline from the EU and MIddle East puts all US independent refineries in a bind.

Sunoco and Valero Shut Refineries - GLG News

The highlighted bit is an add to make clear the often dramatic compositional differences in varous barrels of crude oil, and the refinery complexity needed to turn them into useable products as oil is just an intermediate input. IIRC, the Delaware refinery was losing something like $1 million USD per day for Valero (who also looked for a buyer, but could find none).

Agreed...the strict Libertarian 'solution' is the formula for much of what has happened via deregulation and non-regulation and enforcement..
Mish's basic beliefs ironically has provided a means to an end of sorts for the clusterf$$k mess...

I'm loving me some ZH Dooooooooooooooom!!! 

Doom #1: China runs Trade Deficits in '10
Doom #2: Japan will be unable to keep up its public deficit expenditures.
Doom #3: The Market has to openly admit that the fiscal/monetary "leaders" aren't in control any longer.

Edit:

A devaluation in the renminbi relative to the dollar will likely short-circuit all the millions of FX algos that expect a perpetual peg if not outright Chinese currency appreciation. This solidifies our view that the US Dollar is poised to become the next iteration of the Volkswagen short squeeze in the near- to medium-turn.

gruntled wrote:

Gold has been on a parabolic trajectory since July. Can it go on like that for ever?

The front page of marketwatch.com has about ten stories on gold and a "special report." This is a more reliable sign of a top than any other.

They jumped a shuttle off world.
Killed the crew and passengers.
We found the shuttle drifting off the coast two weeks ago so we know they are around.

snip/
I need the old Blade Runner.
I need your magic.

---I can think of a few skin jobs that need airing out.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

My husbands grandmother just died from mesothelioma, a cancer caused by asbestos.

Bah, more liberal propaganda. Would the honest hardworkin' bidness leaders of Merica, leaders who pay taxes, bidness leaders that made this great and glorious nation what it is today, would these honest and god-fearing leaders of the greatest country in the entire universe have allowed your grandmother to die of asbestos cancer? NONSENSE. More pansy liberalism designed to destroy the people's faith in free-enterprise, democracy, freedom, eagles, and flags. And you know why? It's to take more of your hard-earned tax money, that's why, AND GIVE IT TO THOSE WELFARE QUEENS, that what this is all about. HA! Toxic chemicals. Nonsense, I tell ya.

Survivor's Bias isn't just for mutual funds, anymore.

We never seem to hear from any of the kids that fell out of the back of a pickup truck, or hit their heads falling off a bike, or fell out of trees, or got shot by a friend hunting, or fed a grizzly a chicken-salad sandwich, or went under down at the old swimmin' hole AND DIED AS A RESULT.

We only seem to hear from the old-timers that got lucky! And they always report that "they survived just fine, so what's the problem?"

The problem, grand-dad, is that not all members of your cohort survived! In fact, child-hood mortality used to be shockingly high.
But no one ever remembers the lost boys.

samsin,
Global Warming and the solutions will be a Finance/Econ issue, don't cha know?

CaptainMorgan wrote:

IMHO, I think this might be a good long term play for somebody to buy up.

Get your venture capital on, my friend - Valero has been looking to sell Delaware but no takers - 'course, as our friend Jim the Realtor says, there isn't anything price can't fix!

2010's will be really interesting decade, like 1910's and 1940's were! Well, something to tell your children or grandchildren or your dog in year 2039. They might be even interested in listening all five minutes!

2010: Big economic hoocoodanode cliff diving.
2011: False recovery
2012: End of World
2013: UK collapse
2014: USA collapse
2015: China collapse
2016: Sarah Palin becomes the President of Southern New USA.
2017: UN sends black helicopters and evil troops to contain Palinists
2018: UN sends even more troops to contain Palinists.
2019: UN nukes Palinists and Britney Spears makes comeback!

Bob Dobbs wrote:

This is a more reliable sign of a top than any other.

Not true. When your family members want to chastise you for your "small" gold position or your grocery bagger (modern day "shoe shiner") thinks you need more PM in your portfolio, it is time to bail out of your non-currency risk hedge. Dooooooooooooooom!!!

Vonbek777 wrote:

I know I was one lucky kid. How did I survive my childhood...mercury on the playground...chemicals in my food...I swallowed my fluoride treatment once in school when we were stationed in Germany... amazing anyone is alive at all.

There is a concept called toxic load.- the underlying premise is that the body is able to handle a certain amount of toxins with no ill effect. However, once you go past that point (each person has a different level) that is when the problems begin.

It is quite fashionable to make the comment that you have (and I have been known to make it) but what the statement ignores is that the environmental toxic load has increased tremendously since we were children. Just consider one element- how much less processed food did you eat as a child. Was the beef and poultry to say nothing of the milk loaded with antibiotics or growth hormones. Mercury as a case in point accumulates in fat. I believe one of the primary sources of environmental mercury is from the burning of coal for electricity. In 50's we were only 30 years removed from the massive electrification of the county.As mercury is ingested by successive predators those levels build up. So over the years the consumption of mercury from fish has gone up because there is more mercury in the fish than there was 50 years ago In the US there are five new chemicals introduced every day- none of them have been proven safe since in the US the burden of proof is on people to prove that they are not safe (unlike Europe).

"Not true. When your family members want to chastise you for your "small" gold position or your grocery bagger (modern day "shoe shiner") thinks you need more PM in your portfolio, it is time to bail out of your non-currency risk hedge.:

I've heard that as the "cab driver" argument. But if's only going to work if the big speculators hold their gold long enough; I guess I don't know what they're thinking these days and don't want to presume. But it's for hedgers to be alert, that's sure.

crazyv,
And all radiation has a degree of risk because it accumulates in the body...regardless of what you are told when you get X-rays...or that depeted uranium is 'safe'...

This weekend I happened to be reading about Sir Thomas More (made a Saint in recent times).

Here are a couple of his responses to Martin Luther:

For I am ashamed even of this necessity, that while I clean out the fellow's shit-filled mouth I see my own fingers covered with shit.
...

But if he proceeds to play the buffoon in the manner in which he has begun, and to rave madly, if he proceeds to rage with calumny, to mouth trifling nonsense, to act like a raging madman, to make sport with buffoonery, and to carry nothing in his mouth but bilge-water, sewers, privies, filth and dung, then let others do what they will; we will take timely counsel, whether we wish to deal with the fellow thus ranting according to his virtue and to paint with his colors, or to leave this mad friarlet and privy-minded rascal with his ragings and ravings, with his filth and dung, shitting and beshitted.[5]
[Wiki]

You don't mince words when the stakes are high. I don't believe in sainthood but either way, if you don't get into the muck with them the shithead wingnuts will win.

samsin wrote:

Does that mean evolution was a crack science?

Most humans need to worship authority - this is where political structure comes from. The human brain is BS-Story creation device. In order to worship the authority figures of your brains political-type (see glossary), your brain needs to filter and modify reality to fit the existing BS stories that match the political-type. One common way to do this is to focus (create stories about) enemy political-type authority figures (Gore). The brain's primary purpose in life is to create BS-stories to keep itself happy (self-delusion).

Bob Dobbs wrote:

But it's for hedgers to be alert, that's sure.

FD: Most of my PM is more of a hedge against a weakening USD mid->long term, not a trading position. Trade GLD and SLV if I want to play the numbers, but keep my physical close just in case. Dooooooooooooooom!!!

energyecon wrote:

there isn't anything price can't fix!

I should have added, for the right price.

Usually when a company wants to sell something, it's a crap asset or a prized asset. Nobody wants the former, and they always want way too much for the latter.

Both types of assets could be sold for the right price.

merchants of fear (profile) wrote:
Agreed...the strict Libertarian 'solution' is the formula for much of what has happened via deregulation and non-regulation and enforcement..
Mish's basic beliefs ironically has provided a means to an end of sorts for the clusterf$$k mess...

Actually, Mish's thesis requires that reckless gamblers pay the price OUT OF THEIR OWN POCKET, not with tax dollars.
Bailouts are not the libertarian position!
A libertarian would say gamble your firm's capital all you want, but when you go bankrupt don't come crying to me.

Whatever it is that we have seen the last few years is most definitely not Mish's "formula for what has happened."

energyecon wrote:

Export to the US of cheap gasoline from the EU and MIddle East puts all US independent refineries in a bind.

Now that is something I do worry about- it is a lot easier to disrupt a single refinery than it is an oil field.

Palin is a dartboard diversion the media and other partisan punditry has created...she's just more of the same (Project for a New American Century) really...

yagij wrote:

FD: Most of my PM is more of a hedge against a weakening USD mid->long term, not a trading position. Trade GLD and SLV if I want to play the numbers, but keep my physical close just in case.

I would cash it at the right price and go to realistically-priced real estate in a good area. But that doesn't exist in these here parts, even now.

threetorches,
True Mish is against the 'bailouts' that his basic philosophy brought about...it's a contradiction of sorts...

CaptainMorgan wrote:

I should have added, for the right price.

100% agreement, Cap'n. Also consider the potential environmental liabilities that could come with a refinery when evaluating that price...

Bob Dobbs wrote:

But that doesn't exist in these here parts, even now.

Hence, me holding onto my PM. I would like to look into productive land away from my major metro area of choice, but then I am looking at property tax issues in the various munis who are seeing revenue/spending problems... Puzzled

Actually, it is even worse than the MSM is reporting:

CARIBBEAN

Valero Aruba 235.0 The refinery that was shut
in June for 2-3 months for
economic reasons is being
closed indefinitely.

EAST COAST

Sunoco Westville, NJ 145.0 Idling all refining Mid-Nov
operations indefinitely due
to poor economics, Co. said
Oct. 6. It will take 4-6
weeks to work through crude
stocks to shut down.

Reformer unit shut in Girard n/a
Point section in early Oct
for economic reasons. Shutdown
to last 1-6 months.

Valero Delaware City 210.0 Plant to be permanently shut due
to poor economics, announced
Nov. 20. Delaware Official said
it would be shut on Nov. 22.

Western Yorktown 64.5 Planned work scheduled 1Q 2010.
Va.

MIDWEST
Frontier Kansas 130.0 Extended FCCU work by several
days will reduce charge
rates to 76,000 bbls/day from
81,500 bbls/day.

Western Bloomfield, 16.8 Co. announced plans Nov. 9
NM to idle plant and shift
production to Gallup plant.

Western Gallup, 20.8 Utilization will be boosted
NM to near full capacity with
Bloomfield shutdown, from
about half, Co. said Nov. 9.

Tesoro Salt Lake City, 58.0 Planned turnaround in 2010;
Utah no timetable disclosed.

Tesoro Mandan, N.D. 58.0 Planned turnaround in 2010;
no timetable disclosed.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
11-20-09 1736ET
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Essentially, a large amount of our crude refining capacity is being shut down due to economics, while we import refined products from the cheapest producers using dirt cheap transport.

Essentially we are returning to deflation, as the reflation attempt fails.

Welcome to Japan, post gulf war.

I feel unstimulated.

Time for more Crush the Creditors (tm) to make me feel better.

Best article on zerohedge today: ZH Dooooooooooooooom!!! 

Get ready for the next black swan, another lousy market "event".

Someday this war's gonna end...

threetorches wrote:

A libertarian would say gamble your firm's capital all you want, but when you go bankrupt don't come crying to me.

A libertarian can't comprehend, however, that many (most) people are amoral scumbags that will use ANY means to gain an advantage; including purchasing politicians to change the rules in their favor. Libertarianism needs a fantasy democratic structure in place - a structure with huge numbers of well-informed voters - in order to keep the smart amoral scumbags from capturing the system. As this political structure is a fantasy, Libertarianism is a fantasy too.

Bob Dobbs wrote:

The front page of marketwatch.com has about ten stories on gold and a "special report." This is a more reliable sign of a top than any other.

Speaking of former bubbles, I watched the COO of Potash Corp get decimated by a group of angry analysts a week ago. A year ago, he was on-stage talking about how full control to set their prices, and farmers would be forced to pay whatever they charged. And last week he basically admitted the company made a huge mistake in attempting to hold up prices and it cost them dearly. And the analysts were after blood.

It was beautiful.

merchants of fear wrote:

And all radiation has a degree of risk because it accumulates in the body...regardless of what you are told when you get X-rays...or that depeted uranium is 'safe'...

I don't know about - would love to have you direct me to a source- but I think it is fair to say that between micro waves, CAT and Xrays we are getting a lot more of it than we were 50 years ago. It is just one more element that adds to the overall toxic load. Actually once one starts thinking about it in those terms - you then start trying to reduce the total- e.g. we only use glass dishes for storing stuff- no more plastic, cast iron pans instead of Teflon, leave the dry cleaning in the garage few days, get rid of a lot of household cleaners and switched to a steamer, got rid synthetic fibers in our bedding etc. None of these things is particularly painful but it does reduce the load without getting paranoid about it.

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

The brain's primary purpose in life is to create BS-stories to keep itself happy

It sure seems that way.
I think a lot of it stems from lack of processing power to model reality well.

energyecon wrote:

Also consider the potential environmental liabilities that could come with a refinery when evaluating that price...

There used to be 3 gas stations on every corner, and then the owners realized how expensive it was to upgrade tanks or replace leaking ones.

They found some suckers to buy them though, and now there are more banks on corners.

merchants of fear wrote:

And all radiation has a degree of risk because it accumulates in the body...

Ha ha ha ha!

Good one!

threetorches wrote:

The problem, grand-dad, is that not all members of your cohort survived! In fact, child-hood mortality used to be shockingly high.

And people wonder why I have no real sense of nostalgia. There were no 'good old days', only different days. The human mind elevates positive memories and represses negative ones.

broward wrote:

I think a lot of it stems from lack of processing power to model reality well.

Optimism compensates for any mistake it makes in processing reality. That's why it's so important to be optimistic. Optimism is the 3% long term "inflation effect" in the brain.

Allen C,
Less energy usage means less global warming for the warmers so that's a good thing to reduce gw or climate change...thus a solution...

merchants of fear wrote:

thus a solution...

If the Chinese really are bring on-line 1 coal fired power-plant every week (as I read someplace) there's no solution other than invading Canada.

noob goldberg wrote:

The human mind elevates positive memories and represses negative ones.

Only in the dumbest of monkeys.
.
If you mean "emotional" memories, then maybe. If you mean "That mushroom made me really sick when I ate it on a dare" memories, then no.

Selling on strength = the sheering of retail investors?

question for you mort Fi guys: does FHA have a restriction on selling the property within 1 to 60 months? In other words, does FHA prevent you from flipping within 1 to 5 years. if so, this doubly confirms CRs 'one and done' theory on home purchases.

merchants of fear wrote:

Less energy usage means less global warming for the warmers so that's a good thing to reduce gw or climate change...thus a solution...

There will be no pre-crisis solution to anthropogenic climate change. For evidence supporting this conclusion, just look to the financial sector: even with incontrovertible evidence showing that the current system is deeply flawed, we're unable to make significant changes long after the need has been shown.

Which goes to show that even if those attempting to mitigate the risk of climate change were acquire absolutely rock-solid evidence of potential effects, we'd still be arguing about how to address it well after the ice all melted and the prairies withered.

OT: A bit of the local flavor.

COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) -- South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford faces 37 charges he broke state laws limiting official use of airplanes and campaign money.

The details were released Monday by the State Ethics Commission. They came five days after the panel charged the governor without offering any specifics

yagij wrote:

If you mean "That mushroom made me really sick when I ate it on a dare" memories, then no.

I don't know.
I've known a couple of guys who kept taking them anyway.

sdtfs,
Cite the research either way on the radiation accumulation issue...
Checking some sites now...www.breastcancerfund.org for example with a 'State of the Evidence' link but there's a ton of links on this debate...

noob goldberg wrote:

Which goes to show that even if those attempting to mitigate the risk of climate change were acquire absolutely rock-solid evidence of potential effects, we'd still be arguing about how to address it well after the ice all melted and the prairies withered.

A wonderful analogy. Sad, but true.

Figured the due dilly mention was pro forma...hoocoodanode that banks were even more toxic than leaking underground storage tanks?! Wink

Merchants,
Sure, then discuss it from a financial perspective. You could look at the costs of shifting from coal/oil to alternative energies - or whether "green energy" will be the panacea environmentalists claim from an economic point of view. And if I had to choose environmental priorities - I'd focus more on the slushpile of plastic swirling about in the Pacific, fishing stocks, water supplies, etc.

Attacking GW from the top down is going to be a losing battle IMO. We're really not great at long-term thinking from a species perspective. Fix the small things and we'll likely find the solution for the big problems down the road.

groovy man
Drunk
Hey, the trees are dancing!

You're supposed to live in it for two years, and you sign that you intend to! But people's lives change and you can't imprison someone if their circumstances change radically. Way back when, they'd look to see if you were "moving up" or "moving down" with the suspicion that you were using the program to invest in RE.

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