Existing Home Sales increase sharply in October
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 11/23/2009 - 7:11am (90 comments)
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Great! We're back to bubble levels.
Why not be first?
New home sales should be interesting... especially when you overlay it against builder confidence.
Once again the NAR is slow to release the data online ... I'll have more soon.
This is obviously not good news ... but it will be fun to watch some people get fooled.
best to all
If we give this bubble enough hot air, we can take homes to 20x annual earnings.
"Existing home sales for October hit an annualized rate of 6.10 million units, which is well above the rate of 5.70 million that had been widely forecast. Month-over-month, existing home sales spiked 10.1% -- they were expected to climb 2.3% month-over-month. Revisions to the September's data translate to an annualized rate of 5.54 million units and a monthly increase of 8.8%."
Briefing.com: Existing Home Sales Spike
So, is this demand being pulled forward by the tax credit? Will this be clunkers redux in the coming months? CR had this nailed, so why isn't he tapped as an expert for the MSM?
Any thoughts on how big the 'rain shadow' will be on the other side? Anyone? This should be one interesting whipsaw...
New thread, but CR already anticipated this news and discounted it.
Meanwhile, how is this supposed to be an improvement:
Jamie Dimon seen as good fit for Treasury - NYPOST.com
CR had this nailed, so why isn't he tapped as an expert for the MSM?
---Integrity?
last time homebuyers a plenty....
7.0 months inventory. Who to believe, the NAR or my lying eyes? I've got to think this is either a blatant manipulation or a mathematical effect of distress transfers that technically spend 1 day on market.
Of course sales increased, everyone was trying to close before the november deadline of tax break.....just like cash 4 clunkers.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I nominate CNBC for the one who will be most fooled. It's all trickle-down from there.
nuke
he isnt tapped because he tells it like He sees it,not as tptb want everyone to see it.
It's a Pointer Sisters recovery.
YouTube -
Interesting, checking the non-seasonally adjusted data, we are having August Sales in October. The seasonally adjustment means that we have an extra one-million sales however.
The condo sales are very interesting, no change in non-seasonally adjusted data (only an increase of 1,000) but a gain of 13.2% taking account of the seasonal adjustment.
When I saw that Dimon story, a little Yeats came to mind:
"The best have no conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate intensity"
What was that chart again, the one that showed the incredible pileup between delinquency, NOD, foreclosure and REO?
I was just talking with a guy yesterday who is a home inspector and a contractor. He said he has seen an upturn in uninformed purchases of pieces of junk with real problems. Assuming this is due to the tax credit, we might be seeing yet another unintended set of consequences. We might be seeing people get into homes where it's the repair and/or upkeep that pushes homeowners over the edge, and results in their homes going back to the bank. I'm sure the lenders will be happy to have an even larger portion of their portfolios in bad condition.
Picking up on the theme of the link that I posted yesterday - is it time to start thinking about "regional " real estate markets again? It seems to me that the over building in Florida, Nevada and California are not all the same. Nevada stands out in as much based on other comments they had a virtuous cycle that has turned vicious- more building brought in workers who demand housing which led to more building. The could have a bust in housing for a very long time since they might even end up net outflow of population. Florida on the other hand may fare better- as the demographics drive people there and into condos/town houses.
Ben & Timmay, "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED ?"
Shadow inventory? What shadow inventory? It's
!
Just when you thought you've seen enough of financial gangster capitalism....
As support for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wanes on Capitol Hill amid frustration with the Obama administration's handling of the economy, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is emerging as a potential replacement.
Jamie Dimon seen as good fit for Treasury - NYPOST.com
JP Morgan has also benefited every step of the bailout/extortion way is inescapable, while the reality of Jamie Dimon’s relationship with Obama usually flies under the radar. As does the fact that where Obama, Dimon and Paulson are concerned, all roads lead to Chicago.
looking more and more like
soon !
I'm sure the lenders will be happy to have an even larger portion of their portfolios in bad condition.
They'll just mark them at par.
Didn't Dimon discourage people who wanted to talk to him about being treasury secretary last year?
Once again, if things are so rosy, then why is the Fed looking to extend their printing activities?
threepaweddog wrote:
If you extrapolate the line from '95 to '05 out past 2020, you'd see we're well below where we ought to be
/snark
bmpeterson wrote:
I think it was angry saver who posted some interesting data on on seasonally adjusted home sales. His point was that we were told that April was the "low point" when new homes sold at SA 479,000. However, looking at actual sales NSA through October and adjusting for Nov/Dec results in actual sales for the year of 432,000. I think what his analysis shows is that between all the programs tax credits defaults etc- seasonal adjustments for data are complete BS. Perhaps a more appropriate way to look at the data would be on a trailing 12 month basis.
km4 wrote:
The deca-million dollar plus tax break he'd receive in a tax-free divestiture probably has nothing to do with it.
km4 wrote:
Impossible. GS execs have a lock on all Treasury positions.
But maybe I ought to buy Dec 2010 calls on JPM, as a hedge against my GS position.
"lots of foreclosures", meet "1st time buyers credit", meet "early credit deadline", meet "lots of sales", meet "This Is Great News"!
...........OK, Now..........who can we use to say something positive about the GDP decline tomorrow? ............
Rob Dawg wrote:
All NAR press releases should be required to say "inventory," in quotes, for the purpose of truthiness.
OT, burnside, fun video. Took me back to a Vegas showroom 25 years ago
gabyjan wrote:
JPM has $81 trillion of notional derivative exposure. How does he see it?
Rather than # units, I would rather see $$$ or units broken down by price. Say <$200k, 200-500, 500+
When selecting a Dimon to replace a lost one in your setting, always look for the 5 C's
1) Cut
2) Carrots
3) Consideration
4) Clinton
5) Cahoots
FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Could sovereign debt be the new subprime?
I'll say it again: Boston Metro $400K+ sucks. I've seen a huge drop in activity since mid-Sept.
Just restocking the foreclosure shelf for the next drop!
token bull wrote:
Translation please-
JPMorgan Chase is just a less competent
. Dimon is just as evil as TG, but dumber.
Yup just like Hank Paulson
Maybe Obama is trying to give us a head fake on the
gabyjan wrote:
Denninger gets on occasionally, but I think it's because they like using him to make bloggers in general look like kooks-
Saying that somebody would make a fine SecTres, whilst there is no void to fill, is like preparing funeral notices for somebody not dead yet.
energyecon wrote:
It's that not only demand has been pulled forward, but that supply is likely to increase sharply as banks unload their constipated pipelines, that may make this the first clear double-dip we'll see in the numbers.
Lucky existing home-sales isn't correlated to anything.
ratm
i am confused i was referring to cr,jmpc wasnt mentioned.
Yes, this doesn't make sense, year to date we have 4.272 sales, meaning an average of 427,000 per month, which is lower than any of the seasonalized monthly sales figures. It must be that we are getting extra sales in the months that are usually low so that a sale is worth more than one.
my bad
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
He's dead Jim. [Wasn't it always obvious Timmay was wearing the "red shirt?"]
My theory, for what its worth, is that Timmay will be jettisoned just prior to the 2010 elections.
Are units sold at auction and then flipped counted as one or two sales?
I think Timmay might have pulled the ripcord, but the ejection-seat has malfunctioned, and the credit-lines on his golden parachute are tangled up, as the altimeter spins wildly downward...
and sales for the previous 12 months is 4.89 compared with the low point on SA annual rate in January of 4.49
The Dimon for Treasury trial balloon is IMO an "F-U" to people calling for decent leadership at Treasury. If you've got a problem with Geithner $#$%ing the country over, they'll get somebody even worse.
My theory, for what its worth, is that Timmay will be jettisoned just prior to the 2010 elections.
N. F. W.
That would be a gross admission of guilt. Not something you do right before an election.
How much good news are we going to cram into this short week in order to raise the ghost of Christmas Consumer Past?
good question anybody have the answer?
ratm
no problem
There has been a significant drop of activity (signed offers, signed P&Ss, closings) since around the 3rd week in September. October was a tough month compared with the summer and last October. November looks similarly weak, but I admit the possibility that we'll have an unseasonably successful November because of the tax credit hoopla.
Still, things are not moving quickly without serious price concessions. We are nowhere near bubble-like activity here in Boston metro $400K+
Mistake, that would given 5.126 million annualized. To hit this level we will need to average 425,000 in Nov. and Dec. That would be quite impressive.
Thanks. And another interesting stat would be # units sold as primary residence. If one wanted to distort these numbers into something that would point to some type of recovery for J6P, that would be a good indicator. It would also exclude purchases with the intent to flip.
Rob Dawg wrote:
LOL - what a self-ID for old timer nerd - whoohoo! These are my people!
Carry Trade my Wayward Son
Who's going to get the scoop on the first report of house-swapping solely to score rebates? Some condos and even McMansions look alike in the days of public home-builders...
Ok, the existing-home sales surged 10.1%, but the home prices fell 7,1% !
The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $173,100 in October, down 7.1 percent from October 2008. Distressed properties, which accounted for 30 percent of sales in October, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they usually sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.
reminds me of a cratering stock...like wcom, bsc, jpm
the more the price falls , the greater the volume
giorgiob75 wrote:
If old mortgages were written off/paid off, and the new ones were written for a smaller amount, doesn't that imply a reduction in the money supply. Is there enough information to calculate this reduction, or will we have to wait for further releases from the NAR?
energyecon wrote:
"Scotty! What_did_you_do with the tribillions?"
"I gave tham a very good home Captain."
"WHERE!?!"
"I gave them to the Chicomms sir. Just before they decoupled their Yuan I transported the whole kit'n'kaboddle onto their balance sheet where they'll be no tribillions at all."
Mike's question reminds me of a couple of unresolved questions.
A few days ago, someone posted an anecdote about a foreclosure auction. Reserve price was slightly above the outstanding loan balance. No bids, so the bank "bought" it.
I'm assuming this is recorded as an existing home sale. But am I correct? But also, when does this house find its way into NAR numbers? In the real world, are we seeing inflated sales figures, or suppressed NAR inventory figures, or even both?
Anybody long Tungsten, surreptitiously?
Incorrigible, Dawg - yer just incorrigible
I gave them to the Chicomms sir.
LMFAO.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
I bet it happens, but not widespread. People are too emotional and attached to their homes.
I'm guessing more scams of somebody else doing the "buying" to qualify.
FTW!
Mike_ wrote:
If sold to a third party (not the lender) it's counted as two sales.
I sure hope straw buyers and fraud aren't back, like a bad flashback to 2006.
Bearded Spock wrote:
I always liked you better with the beard.
"The best diplomat that I know is a fully-loaded [phaser] bank." -- Lt. Cdr. Montgomery Scott ("A Taste of Armageddon")
Cinco,
I don't think you'll have to wait for federal budget deficits to cause problems with investor confidence. There are plenty of other possible sources: unemployment, falling real estate prices (again/still), currency movements, and defaults of other countries. Funny thing is, many of those causes traditionally make people want to move to Treasuries.
Total OT moment - one of the reasons I am a HCN user (hey, I could quit, I just don't want to) - there are any number of issues we will be in sharp disagreement on, but a cheesy extended Star Trek TOS metaphor from the Dawg shows us all for what we are...boooyah!
What if the Wolfram Pyrites pulled a fast one, and replaced every last 400 oz bar in the vaults in NYC & Fort Knox?
You never steal little in this sort of a con, you steal big.
All this talk of red shirts and Trek...
Expendability
Change Ricky to Timmy.
some investor guy wrote:
All that was just an excerpt from Krugman's article; I don't deny the validity of your claims, and in fact, they make some real sense. I hereby nominate you for the Nobel Prize
If a dog can get a credit card, why not a mortgage?
Cinco-X wrote:
His nobel-winning self continues,
"It’s hard to see why anything similar should happen now..."
That kind of analysis is why he gets the big bucks.
Come on! Where is this stupid Forrest! All i see is boring Trees.....
Remember when Cheney said deficits don't matter and Krugman blew a gasket. The dipshits at the NYT don't, but I do. Once again, we see that economics is just ideology wrapped in scientific sounding jargon. Hayek called this crap "scientism".
I was thinking that same thing. It appears JPM is interested in doing "Gods Work" as well...
If a dog can get a credit card, why not a mortgage?
Any dog that can write legibly enough to fill out a credit card form has potential for major earnings power in Hollywood.