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First?
Well, house prices would have returned much closer to historical averages for the bottom of a major RE cycle had govt intervention not been stepped up to stem the tide. Why would they stop creating new programs to pour money into RE now? Which Congressman is going to let himself be identified as the one who let home prices drop?
I thought the highest correlation was with either the 7 year or a synthetic equivalent 8 year Treasury. Methinks using 10y is either an expedient or agenda driven choice. Regardless, I am puzzled that record historically large differences between prime rates and mortgage rates is considered insufficiently large.
Well then it's a good thing that house prices will decline only a few percent more, or this might turn into a real problem.
I also note: The pockets of noise on the correlation chart are odd. If it were just at the high end, it might be sensible. But the pocket around 7.5 is a bit strange. Any obvious explanation for that?
The incentive of congress to line their own wallets with silver trumps all else
I'm reminded of that picture of the mammoth in the tarpits. There were serious problems ahead for him, too. Like home prices, tarpits are "sticky".
unless incomes go up in the meanwhile - that 1/2% is worth about 5.5% on home prices. It seems to me that the big risk here is that things don't turn up in the next six months. I imagine that there are a lot of people who have refrained from walking away because they hear so many stories that things are about to turn up - the bottom has been made - stock prices are going up home prices are sure to follow. When all those hopes fade away with the second dip do they finally throw the towel in ? If that is how things play out seems to me that the second time down could be whole lot worse than the first.
I have commented here that the most valuable asset that America has is the optimism of its people. However, unlike others (including some on this board) I don't think that it is a given that the American people will remain hopeful under any all conditions. IMO nothing destroys hope more quickly than a series of false dawns. Would have been much better to have over shot to the downside and have it be a real dawn coming out rather than the series of false dawns we are setting ourselves up for.
The Fed cannot and will not stop buying MBS. That would accelerate the housing crash to NASCAR like speed. They will announce an extension to "save" the market in Q1 2010. They have no choice. Not that it will work in the end.
Completely OT. I have just learned that we (wife and I) may be unexpectetdly hosting Thanksgiving dinner for 14. Father/mother in law who usually host are not feeling well. Foolishly, we volunteered. Now I love to cook and am pretty good at it. Roast turkey, no problem (HT Alton Brown), Garlic Mashed potatoes OK. Scratch made cranberry sauce - can do. But gravy sends my stress level into the red zone. I have done it many times, most successfully. But the stress of screwing up the gravy is, well, overwhelming ("remember the Thanksgiving when the gravy was like Elmer's glue?"). That doesn't count cleaning the house (we have 3 Cats). Can anyone talk me down. Maybe roast mortgage pig instead. Hmmmm.
I have to disagree with the assessment of 30-50bps relative to the 10yr.
That was based on the historical norms for the market. After the biggest residential real estate bust (arguably) in U.S. history, are we really to believe that the historical spread to treasuries will just reappear in the near term? No way.
The ultimate end buyers of MBS will require higher than normal yield (lower price) because of the recency effect from the MBS disaster of the past few years. Yes, that is behavioral finance, but that is also reality.
I will honestly say I do not know what the spread to treasuries will be, but I would be shocked if it is 30-50bps. My guess would be somewhere between 75-100bps, if not more. In the long run, yes, the MBS market will revert to its previous trend, but the overshoot from recency bias is not accounted for in the short term regression based prediction in this post, CR.
Buy the gravy. There has to be a high quality local maker of good gravy. Even for $60 or so, it's better than stress. Then you can relax.
JP wrote:
I think it is the tight co relation around 8% -9% that is oddity. I can understand the tight corelation at lower interest rates because that coincides with the period of maximum securitization and "sophistication" in financial markets. But it has been quite a while since 10 year rates were above 8%.
Alone that isn't all that "scary".
Alone is the key word. Will the long-term part of the yield curve stay low or will it go up?
UC raising the tuition, MTA raising the fares, import prices going up. How soon before the organized labor starts demanding higher wages, setting off the inflationary race?
Stagflation, here we come!
weird - edited to change from 30-35 bps to 30-50 bps and it reposted my message instead with the changes
edit - and now it is fixed
patientrenter wrote:
Beat me to it. Take some of the drippings and strain them first, then thicken with sifted flour then when no one is looking throw in a jar of store bought. Voila. It also gives you a pre-labeled jar to put the leftover in the fridge.
the 30 year mortgage vs 10 year treasury graph looks exactly like an inverse of my end of the world risk matrix.
I'm falling into that camp too. Anything, no matter how irresponsible, will be done to keep house prices from correcting.
< brokenrecord > Here in LA, prices are down, but nowhere near any type of price/income rationality. Houses that sold for 250-450k in 2000, are now priced at 800-1.2 million+. Admittedly, at the peak they were all over a million, but the ratio is still 6-8x income in "nicer" areas with HH incomes in around $150, 000. Anything that can be FHA financed sells pretty quick, and the general feeling is that the bottom is in. Still seeing lots of properties selling with multiple offers. Insane. Nothing fundamentally supports these prices other than relatively "easy" govt backed loans. It would be nice (for me as a buyer) if these went away. I'm starting to feel like, absent a black swan, it won't. Hell, Barney wants to raise the limit to over 800K
</ brokenrecord >
Oh well, sure is different here
"then throw in a jar of store bought." Terrific idea. Any brand recommendations? You sound experienced at this subterfuge. Maybe add enough red wine and no one will notice (remember) the difference.
nikola tesla wrote:
I do think the Federal Reserve will extend MBS buying by three month at the next FOMC meeting. They will probably add another $100 billion for giggles. Now that more people are realizing that the housing market is ready for another dip in prices; the political pressure ("audit the FED") will overcome their desire to return to "normalize" things.
montas ankle, maybe. We will see in April.
One piece of good news is the Ten Year yield didn't rise sharply when the Fed stopped buying. I didn't think it would make much difference - although I read a few end of the world commentaries on other sites.
A 50bps move will probably be enough to slow refis way down
best wishes
The one that doesn't want his name attached to the dollar crash?
nikola tesla wrote:
No, make it cream, whip in slowly it and even if there are lumps, clumps or poor consistency all will be forgiven.
CR,
Your careful analysis misses the obvious. The Fed just came in an artificially purchased a Trillion dollars "worth" of this crap in one year, and rates really never broke below 5%. Withdrawal of this flood of subsidy and mortgages will trade like Drexel's worst junk.
Normally lenders want a spread to account for risk. But w/o the Fed subsidy, there is no risk at all; there is a certain plunge in home prices, and skying foreclosures. 8-9%, minimum, instantly. Just look at the jumbo mortgage market before it was re-subsidized.
I wish the Fed would stop its Keep Housing Unaffordable Plan.
nikola tesla wrote:
My contribution to the gravy discussion: gravy is easy to make from scratch and fine to do in advance. I would deglaze the roasting pan with a little Madeira and add that to the premade/bought gravy.
Probably good with mortgage pig, too.
Gravy is easy as pie, no need to cheat.
Take the drippings, strain them. In your pot, take some butter, melt it down, and use it to dissolve some flour. You dissolve the flour in melted butter to avoid lumps. Add the drippings and a can of swanson's chicken broth. Simmer for a long while to cook the flour. Salt and pepper to taste.
I read a few end of the world commentaries
egads...Yahoo? wash your hands!
It is but if you don't make it all the time, its easy to lose touch. It took me years to get it right and I learned to cook from scratch as a young kid...for some reason, I could make bread, even souffles but gravy...it just took awhile.
Not to bring up the stress level of nikola. Remember, the more you stress about it the more you ward off the evil gremlins out to destroy your meal.
This page has gravy recipe but also a "gravy troubleshooting" table. Keep it handy.
How to Make Great Gravy - - FabulousFoods.com
What is really different today then before peak housing prices? FHA is still technically a no money down, below reality based mortgage interest and the government buy now sucker treats ends. If the proper 20% down and a least 7% mortgage rate existed then the prices would continue to fall in line with incomes that are just starting to fall. The ride to reality is not over.
nikola tesla wrote:
It isn't so much subterfuge as time management. Gravy is too time, utensil, bowl and counterspace intensive. And exactly when those are in most demand. I use Heinz because they have good coupons and low salt. Wine? If you can get a good price surprise them with a fruity Pinot Noir like Rex-Goliath.
Dang it all, now I'm hungry. Have a great evening everyone.
Sorry for steering this thread OT. Yes I can and will make the gravy and then enjoy several bourbons.
The Fed is in a box. They ARE the mortgage lending market. They can't pull out. Is that enough to hold up the equity markets? I can't help but think that the mother of all shorting opportunities is coming. But when?
easy gravy receipe:
drain turkey drippings into large frying pan. Set heat to medium.
in a separate bowl, mix about a half cup flour with enough water to make it smooth
have a large glass of water ready at the stove
pour flour paste into drippings, stirring with wisk. as flour thickens, add water from glass slowly, a little at a time, stirring all the while.Keep heat from dropping too much.
keep adding water incrementally and stirring until gravy no longer thickens. It's a judgement call at this point. Usually when stirring no longer reveals the bottom of the pan you are very close. Add liquid smoke (if desired) and salt to taste. Sometimes adding canned mushrooms is nice. Maybe a hint of garlic powder, too.
reduce heat and stir occasionally until ready to serve.
+1000
The entire housing bubble was based on wasting other peoples' money. If we rely on people risking their own money, it goes all the way back.
I do agree that Congress will insist on doing the stupidest, worst thing possible. As if we needed proof, the health care bill shows the complete disconnect with reality.
Our system now is like the man grasping the bare electrical wire, unable to release it because the muscles in his hands are clenching due to the current. We spiral in now until the metaphorical man's heart stops.
I would go buy some more glod now, but as you know, for me, that is not possible.
If you want real gravy, hook with an FHA loan.
I bet you guys didn't think those two threads could be joined together.
Why can we have a nationalized mortgage market but not a national bank?
The Fed intervention in Treasury market was 300 billion, compared to the GSE MBS at 1.25 trillion. A much bigger slug of thin air money. I am not sure who is going to take up the slack in the MBS market next year. Does someone have a spare trillion they want to give to Fannie, Freddie, and Ginnie?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Because that would be socialist.
By the way, if you think the Fed cannot possibly stop buying all the new paper, on what planet would you have to live to think that the Fed was going to unwind the paper they have already bought?
ROTFL
try lots of onions instead of flour to thicken it!!
its for the gravy problem
)
nikola tesla wrote:
The market will decline over the next few weeks but it is a fake, since the Fed announcement (see above) will put some zing into the reflation trade.
The big move will come around Obama's state of the union address when he stuns Congress with demands for austerity (other than his pet proposals, of course.) A lot of his former socialist supporters will be very angry at him.
For anyone local to So. Cal. I just posted the San Fernando Valley October 2009 sales report:
Effective Demand: San Fernando Valley home sales report - October 2009
Plantagenet, we will know in April - assuming no extension.
I doubt we will see anything like a 300 bps jump, but it will definitely be closely watched!
best wishes
Congress is challenging the Fed's independence. The Fed is planning to quit buying MBS and possibly raise rates at their discretion. The already fragile housing market/economy is being held hostage to a game of chicken between the Fed and Congress. Should be a hell of a crash since neither can swerve. Who holds the power going forward is at stake and how much damage these opponents are willing to inflict will define the future of our country. Interesting times don't get more interesting than this.
Ego and pride among powerful men. Always ends well.
Externalized Costs wrote:
If Congress is playing Chicken with the Fed, I think I know the outcome: imagine Barney Frank in feathers.
I gotta agree. If a 600 point drop in the dow causes congress to write a check for $700B, then imagine what a 2 hour halt in the dow would cause.
The dichotomy of supporting higher house prices isn't difficult to understand in retrospect.
You can either have an asset loss in a large # of consumers, which would reduce their spending (lower prices)
Or a future loss of income in a small number of current home purchasers (higher prices).
Easy choice if you're trying to maintain the status quo.
Fed will keep doing what it's always done.
Try to strike a balance between inflation losses and deflation losses.
Look back over the past two years.
I though that the Fed was buying MBSs 2 months in advance. So will they buy through May as those loans will be applied for and locked earlier?
If it is thought that the Fed won't extend the purchases won't rates start going up in Feb or March when loans are applied for with a closing date of April & May?
Like this one?
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- On April 20, President Obama challenged his Cabinet to cut $0.0001 trillion in spending over the next 90 days.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/07/21/obama.spending.promise/index.html
OT:
My family and I made homemade pizzas one year for thanksgiving.
Everyone got to put their toppings of choice on one half of a pizza; then we all shared.
We were all together in the kitchen and had a great time.
Mrs. Gnome and I went out to buy a sportcoat today.
The mall was crowded; but absolutely none of the clothing was in any sort of order as far as sizes.
Inventory didn't seem any lower than the last time I was in the mall (prolly 2 years now).
Gawd, I hate the f*cking mall!
I now return you to your regularly scheduled
!
It all depends on the exchange rate between the USD and the Amero.
Until the NAU is finalized, and the Amero is rolled out, the Fed just has to keep the beast alive.
It's odd, really, that people do not account for the new currency.
Plantagenet wrote:
Similar. Remove one of the zeros to the right of the decimal point. I said he would disappoint his socialist supported; I didn't say he would become a conservative.
"on what planet would you have to live to think that the Fed was going to unwind the paper they have already bought." Exactly. They can't unwind it. Who will buy. Not Hu. That's why they're in a box. They can't stop buying and they can't unload it. Rock meet hard place. So what happens?
So what happens?
---The grinding.
It will be similar in one way (quoting the same article):
The deadline came -- and went -- without a report from the White House on whether or not that promise was fulfilled.
On the Verge of Self Mutilation wrote:
The real problem is that money can just float all over the place doing whatever it wants.
If I were King, I'd institute a money subclassing system since we have the CPUs to do it.
For instance, you could make
1 Generic Amero = 1.4 Home-Purchase Ameros.
1 Generic Amero = .85 Food-Purchase Ameros.
Etc, etc.
Then you could dial rates up or down to trap money in home mortgages or release it.
Like a bunch of interconnected hot air balloons.
nikola tesla wrote:
They don't need to unwind it. This is MBS; it unwinds itself. If thing go good they get a little bit of principal each month. If things don't go good, they get all the principal back when the GSE buys out the loan. And if we live long enough; people will actually sell their home and move into another one: again the principal get passed though to the Fed's balance sheet.
Is it possible to get lost using a mind map?
Rajesh wrote:
Ain't none of us gonna live that long.
That's actually a very interesting proposition, broward.
You left out a case: When the loans turn delinquent, the security is on the Fed's balance sheet for more than what they'll collect.
Of course, since mark-to-market has been banished, maybe that balance sheet just carries the fantasy into the next century.
On the Verge of Self Mutilation wrote:
Scary, isn't it?
It's the antithesis of Yogi's one-world currency but it's built almost the same way.
I should be working for D.C.
JP wrote:
This is GSE guaranteed paper: when the loan turns delinquent, the GSE buys the mortgage out of the pool at par and the losses go on the GSE balance sheet.
The Fed intervention in Treasury market was 300 billion, compared to the GSE MBS at 1.25 trillion. A much bigger slug of thin air money.</>
I think what matters is the proportion of the Fed intervention. How much of the GSE MBS market is the Fed buying up as a percentage of the total GSE MBS market.
If you look at the section "Market size and liquidity" in Mortgage-backed security, the issued MBS in 2005 were ~ 1 Trillion. Not sure what that number currently is. So, the Fed has been buying $1.25Trillion in 1.5 years or basically some 75% of the market.
Now, what are those statistics for the total US Treasury market in 2009?
So if you lend me $10,000,000 to buy an old tennis shoe, we just have to securitize the loan. Its an OTSBS; it unwinds itself!
More Sat. smiles (from downunder): "100 dancers led by one of Australia's most famous drag queens surprised bathers on Bondi Beach (on Sat Nov 14th 2009) with a medley of hot jams. It starts with “Love Shack” and only gets better from there…"
Say Cheese! Flash Mob On Bondi Beach
Your Disco Needs You!
50 bps may be overstated. If you are comparing the anticipated 5.33% rate with the Freddie weekly average of 4.83% + .7 points you need to figure the .7 points is worth 20-30 bps in rate. I'd argue that rates are overstated by 25 bps based on your methodology.
JBR, noticed a lot of LA area residents commenting on the artificially propped up prices in your area. As we all know, Bernanke bought an awful lot of these bad loan properties from the banks, and so many of these and those still increasing at the banks are just sitting there vacant or squattered. The question then becomes what he will do with this mal-investment. My guess is that he secretly packages large groups of them and sells the majority of them for pennies on the dollar with financing to the global sovereign wealth funds that the central bankers created and let them deal with it, with the understanding that it is to be as a long term holding in an attempt to maintain some semblence of price stability. That's why it is so important that we audit the fed.
another gravy tip: use cold red/white wine and cornflour, mix it and wisk in the boiled drippings slowly till required thickness. it binds instantly ( no long cooking to get rid of flour taste) and it cuts out the fat from the flour method!!
Aha. So the GSEs make good until the next bailout situation. At least that's some level of transparency.
"they get all the principal back when the GSEs buy out the loan." And who is funding the GSEs It is still substitution of public debt for (exhausted) private debt. How does this end?
I cant comment on trends in the 10 year Ts.
But sure seeing a dip in the 2 year - last time this low (negative) was December last year. An encore of asset allocation maybe?
Here is the state of the GSEs. Like they are going to buy anything ....
Fannie Mae Posts 3Q Loss; Asks Treasury for More Money
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/11062009_fannie_mae_posts_big_3q_loss_asks_treasury_for_more_money.asp
Mortgage_Jeff, fine. 25 bps, 35 bps. But not 100 or 200 bps. I just don't see this alone as a show stopped (the other housing related issues are much more serious).
All: I'm interested to see how many news organization get taken on Monday morning by the existing home sales report. It is going to be a big number - like 5.8 million SAAR - but so what? What matters for the economy is the level of new home sales and housing starts.
best to all
Yoringe - nice recipe trick...but its not classic French...I prefer to melt butter, mix in flour and heat slowly and then add the "meaty" flavor you wish.
Barley, yeah - this is very different from last year. Some banks are locking in trading profits and parking it in short term treasuries ... or something like that ... but not a panic.
best wishes
Let me guess, ..., exhausted public debt?
housing starts?
What have permits been doing?
Okay my est. is 4.6 M SAAP, we wil see
As usual, I came to the comments page to argue a point, and by the time I had read to the bottom I had been enlightened enough to change my mind.
There were large expiring Cash Management Bills last week. Temporary phenomenon, parking in short term Ts, plus end of year window dressing in progress.
Me too. I mean, now I'll never use cold wine and corn flour, no matter how much sense it makes from the chemistry of gravy.
Does anybody know how many homes get destroyed each year? Seems to me that with 110 million homes that should be in the order of 1million or more (1%)
Dems clinched 60 votes. It looks like health care is a done deal. Now, this will cost about 1 trillion. The costs, we are told, will be offset by cutting $500 billion from Medicare, and large tax increases. The tax increases I can believe, but the Medicare cuts? No way. So we have another unfunded program eating into the budget. Plus the FHA bailout, Afghan buildup, and continued revenue erosion.
I'll be the first to admit, I am shocked the FedGov could borrow 1.4 trillion at these rates. Maybe NakedCapitalism, Cheney, Bush, and Krugman are right, and deficits don't matter. Or maybe we finally find the tipping point.
The problem is not just with mortgage rates. The current fiscal deficit is not sustainable without the FED monetizing debt, because there's not enough savings flowing from foreign and domestic savers to finance it. The FED, by buying close substitutes of Gov debt, makes it all possible. If the FED does not monetize, rates would go through the roof (not just mortgage rates, but also Gov debt).
It's doubtful the FED will stop for long.
Just saw Scrooge.
If they had dialed down the special fx it would have been twice as
good.
Got a cat toy with feathers made in the USA. We can still make
cat toys.
Yea.
ll - no toy pony?
Incognitus is correct. The did not borrow at these rates. They monetized a great deal of it. There are many monetization mechanisms that people aren't noticing (where did the $500 Billion in foreign CB swaps go?)
Nuke wrote:
they only got the 60 votes to start debate. They still have to get 60 votes for cloture. Will be interesting to see if they actually make people filibuster. Perhaps keep the Senate in session over Xmas and New year. That will be interesting TV to watch Republicans reading the phone book while people lose jobs.
Dickens had a problem with spending money.
I understand he & his wife spent 'way to much of it.
No but the hub was tempted by a Sheltie puppy. Now, if
only someone would take care of it for him. I rather think
the catz would beat it up.
Are the American made cat toys innovative?
Do we at least rock at making cat toys?
Cat toys, mercenary forces, and erection pills.
The future looks bright.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
So what? Man, why you be such a hater
It could well spark a significant............bah! dey qwynne do what dey want, we'll find out about 4PM EST Mon.
Hey, why doesn't the Fed raise rates by .01% a day/week/month?
I fail to see how house prices could go down to half if interest rates
are doubled. I mean, I have a file (which may never close, even
tho the buyer has 20% down, where the purchase price is 61k.
In an ok neighborhood, not a slum. I mean, the thing would have
to go down to 30k. 1970s prices. Come on.
$30K is a car payment that easily amortize over 5 years! What a starter home.
It was feathers with a sparkly tied to the end of a
stick. What do you want? maybe the Chinese have
killed all their birds with pollution, so we can compete.
I bought an Olds 440 in the 70's for $600. But the starter failed in 2 weeks. Carried a hammer with me for quite a while.
crazyv wrote:
Just out of curioustiy, where did the 1% number come from?
I would think lots of destroyed houses become new houses built on the same lot, or perhaps houses become apartment complex by the same method. Houses rarely become extra yards, or gardens, but sometimes parking lots in mixed zoning areas.
I know what the math sez, but I don't believe it.
Elsewhere, maybe.
The daughter still has a job, and is living in her new
house, which is unfinished on the inside. Her Siamese
couldn't figure how to go up and down stairs at first..
A 50k loan at 5% over 30 years is 250 bucks a month.
What are they friggin' worried about?
Lurking Larry wrote:
When I come here, I read the article, read the comments, and by then can't remember what the original point was, but I've learned several things in the process and chased a few odd paths. This is probably why my comments are so random.
lawyerliz wrote:
Word!
what are they worried about?
first, the demand is less and even less is granted
this is where we start
i can see the cat toy label in my mind...
Proudly made in the U.S.A (by an illegal immigrant or by a robot that was made in china)
$250 a month is still a lot of cat toys.
We gotta consider future earning power.
sneering nihilist wrote:
Cripes! Illegal immigrants were one of the few exports Southern California had left. Now the Chinese are stealing that too?
Just fed the cats. Turned their nose up at customary cat food. Wanted
Must remember to turn on screen saver,
Meow.
Do we have an indication of the change in risk premium for some other country's MBS? Somewhere else with fixed rates?
It seems to me that you could make 250 per month panhandling.
But what do I know? And there is taxes and insurance, but the
taxes will be hardly anything.
rob dawg -- nah, but their robots are stealing jobs from illegal immigrants right here in The USA!
A century 21 ad. My dream home is just a few clicks away, it seems.
RD:
Not to be outdone by CA, NYS finds itself teetering on the fiscal precipice. The governor has called the legislature back to Albany for a special session to close the deficit (estimated at a mere 3.2 billion). So far, no progress. On NPR yesterday they mentioned that the legislature's solution to a multi-billion dollar gap is taxing cigarettes sold on Indian land. Incredible. The only thing keeping NYS afloat at this point in TARP money.
Illegals still buy toilet paper here. Ummm, is the toilet
paper made here?
JP wrote:
Maybe the Fed booked them with a haircut at purchase, just like they do at the window.
Fla added a huge tax on ciggies. They anticipated usage would
drop--a good thing--and it did, but they still got more money.
When the loans turn delinquent. . . . where do my anecdotes
writ large into actual data factor into this?
"It looks like health care is a done deal. "
overview of the process:
Health Care for America NOW - Steps To Win
They anticipated usage would drop
...our official metrics show cigarette purchases have all but dried up completely, but everyone is still smoking. Strangest thing!
I just read the thread comments backwards, a la "Memento." Very enlightening. CR buried Paul, evidently.
I start at the end, comment and then work upward.
Otherwise, I'd never get a chance to blather.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
Seems to me that the average life of a house has to be less than 100 years-
You are correct that few destroyed homes become vacant lots but when they are rebuilt they are counted in the statistics as new home construction I assume. I think it is an important number in the context of the overhang of housing and the current glut. Much of the discussion has focused just on where the new buyers are going to come from. But not enough attention has been spent IMO on the reduction in the housing stock. According to Census there 128 million homes in the US if I am right on my 1% number and housing starts are at 500,000 then the total housing inventory is declining at 800,000/year.
Seems to me that some point when there has been enough of a decline in the total housing stock prices will have to reflect the cost of new construction. Once the cost of land has gone to zero then housing has to find a bottom at the cost of replacement.
Cats happy now. Promised them
for tomorrow. Canned for now.
Tesla could order the meal at a local grocery store.
Just make a fabulous dessert the day before, and have
lots of sparkly
What percentage of the total mortgage market are the agencies now?
Practically all of it? I knew the percentage was high - 80%+ - even last year.
Nuke wrote:
Not to be outdone by CA, NYS finds itself teetering on the fiscal precipice. The governor has called the legislature back to Albany for a special session to close the deficit (estimated at a mere 3.2 billion). So far, no progress. On NPR yesterday they mentioned that the legislature's solution to a multi-billion dollar gap is taxing cigarettes sold on Indian land. Incredible. The only thing keeping NYS afloat at this point in TARP money.
Nuke - why do we expect the legislators to be manage the public finances better than they manage their individual finances. We are at a point in our culture where nobody thinks that they have to sacrifice anything and everything can be had by borrowing more money. Its so much easier to complain about taxes and talk about all the fraud and waste in government. While there undoubtedly is fraud and waste - the reality is that it is inevitable even if we could all agree on what waste was. I think we need to look at ourselves and ask "have I not wasted, have I not been defrauded". Once we get to that point then we can stop talking about taxes being too high and start asking what am I prepared to do without in exchange for lower taxes. In my town I suggested that side walks on both sides of very quiet residential streets was unnecessary and the city instead of replacing some of those could use the money to improve other sidewalks and roads rather than increasing taxes. Did the idea get traction- absolutely not- we are Americans we should not have to give up anything but neither do we need to pay for it.
The house I grew up in was built in the 1890s. It's still there, not
in good shape, but not in destructo shape either.
The house my mom just sold was built around the same time.
In good shape. I would say it has at least another 50 years in it
and maybe lots more.
Lots of no-sidewalk streets in Fla. So maybe we are only 4th or 5th
worse off?
Liz - I'm a lawyer too but keep it under your hat. Don't want my credibility to suffer.
lawyerliz wrote:
Ended up not too far off there ourselves - MIL insisted on being the provider this year - and doing so without cooking since she is 81 and it will be for 12 or so...already put the order in at Honey Baked Ham
All I have to do is open the wine and take out the trash (MIL lives with us now, so we will host the extended family) - oh yeah, and eat!
LL- I think you are falling into the survivor bias. If a house has an average life of 100 years there will be some that won't survive the year and there will be others that will last 100's of years to make the average come out 100. Now if all the houses built in 1890 were still around that would be one thing.
Had an interesting conversation with a recently retired public employee the other night. She's living "conservatively" out of uncertainty whether CalPERS will go bust. She doesn't know me well enough for personal disclosure, so the fact that she brought it up tells me that public awareness of our economic reality has done a 180 in the past year. People used to scoff at me when I'd tell them news I'd gotten here. Now they listen and nod in agreement. People here (So CA) aren't talking
yet, but I expect they will in '10.
I won't tell a soul, Tesla!! Though you were double e or something
like that.
Plantagenet wrote:
In addition, some powerful people argue that that Treasuries are among the latest and the most dangerous of asset bubbles
FT.com / Europe - Germany warns US on market bubbles
Germany’s new finance minister has echoed Chinese warnings about the growing threat of fresh global asset price bubbles, fuelled by low US interest rates and a weak dollar.
Wolfgang Schäuble’s comments highlight official concern in Europe that the risk of further financial market turbulence has been exacerbated by the exceptional steps taken by central banks and governments to combat the crisis.
Last weekend, Liu Mingkang, China’s banking regulator, criticised the US Federal Reserve for fuelling the “dollar carry-trade”, in which investors borrow dollars at ultra-low interest rates and invest in higher-yielding assets abroad.
Speaking at a banking conference in Frankfurt on Friday, Mr Schäuble said it would be “naive” to assume the next asset price bubble would take the same guise as the last.
He said: “More likely today is a scenario in which excess liquidity globally creates a new [sort of] asset market bubble.”
He added: “That low interest rate currencies such as the US dollar are increasingly being used as a basis for currency carry trades should give pause for thought. If there was a sudden reversal in this business, markets would be threatened with enormous turbulence, including in foreign exchange markets.”
It's threatening to rain and I'm tired of waiting. Off to get the car washed. That'll do it.
Feckless Ness- people need to believe and they were willing to believe the President and relentless barrage on TV about the economy getting better. However, if that turns out not to be the case that is when things turn ugly. From a pure risk management perspective policy should have been directed towards ensuring that there was no double dip. The only way to have done that was to allow the first deep to be deeper and perhaps through where it needed to be so that the recovery would start and continue.
Virtually ALL the houses in my old neighborhood are still
there. I suspect that even after great abuse, they will outlast
the cheap suburban stuff built within the last 40.
Also, nearly all the houses in Highlandtown, Balto, are very old.
lawyerliz wrote:
What is the problem with no sidewalks?
crazyv:
I concur. I think the fact that consumer confidence is dropping again, as well as the Leading Economic Indicators, leads me to believe a lot of folks are starting to question the recovery meme.
lawyerliz wrote:
That would make it hard to find clothes.
What scares me, Meredith, is oversupply.
Yeah, O could have blamed Bushie for 6-9 months of great
pain.
People do tend to believe their own lies after a while.
No problem with no sidewalks that I've found. They should
be constructed on heavy car traffic streets and urban areas.
Crazyv's fellow citizens needed the sidewalks!
Sidewalks are huge expense with very little return in suburban areas.
Nuke wrote:
I deal with a lot of good investment people. Nobody is expecting a big runup in real estate or stocks from here. A few are expecting flat for several years. Others trying to figure out where to put their money on hold.
lawyerliz wrote:
To sleep on?
I just thought of something morbid...
Health Care passes allowing millions access to health care, but Peak Oil renders the point moot, as they won't be able to get to the doctor.
Thank goodness PO is BS!
some investor guy wrote:
makes it hard to walk without getting run over. However I have not figured out why on a quiet street you need them on both sides- what is it too hard or dangerous to cross the street? To me the sidewalk issue is a prime example of how dysfunctional we have become. The city is not spending enough money to replace them within their expected life. The obvious conclusion either pay more taxes or reduce the foot print. But not only do not reduce the foot print but we have petitions for new side walks- many people who sign them no doubt complain about taxes. We just expect the tooth fairy to pay for things/
All the persons who wander into my office
are skeptical. Clients, ups and mail guys, trinket
sellers etc, etc.
Elvis wrote:
The places I like tend to have little illumination at night, and no sidewalks.
some investor guy wrote:
Were they doing that two years ago? Because unless they were shorting, that is not impressive now.
Ummm, it's moot, mute is when you can't or
don't speak.
Vampyre?
Werewolf?
Finally, something good might be coming out of the WTO (with a rather ironic twist to boot):
Britain's bank bail-out may have broken rules, says WTO
Under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, the Government may have been guilty of financial protectionism when it rescued Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group. If challenged and found guilty, the UK could face trade sanctions or having to overhaul the semi-nationalised banking system significantly.
The news is a major blow for Gordon Brown, coming only weeks after he was forced to break up RBS and Lloyds to conform with a European Commission ruling.
Pascal Lamy, director general of the WTO, told The Sunday Telegraph that under its rules it was entitled to scrutinise whether the bail-outs of major banks during the crisis represented a form of protectionism. He said the WTO was likely to examine whether the countries that bailed out their banks stipulated that in return they should lend more to domestic customers in the future.
...
Should this be raised as an issue by other WTO members and the UK is found to have broken the international trade code, then countries may be entitled to raise tariffs on UK trade, or Britain could be forced to overhaul the plans. The warning would also apply to the US and European countries that have taken similar steps.
I can't wait to see China and Brazil to start lecturing the UK and the US on the dangers of government protectionism and interventions in free markets.
"thought you you were a double e or something." No, just an admirer of people with amazing intellects.
Access for handicap people is too burdensome an expense. I know that sounds insensitive, but it is true. There needs to be some better type of economic benefit balance.
ok...another syntax "gazillionaire maker' idea....as soon as i figure out how to get these computers to write what i'm thinking, properly
I've only ever seen a handicapped lady in the handicapped
bathroom once.
But they are great for moms with small children.
The amount of work being done on sidewalks where I live is preposterous. Must be all federal money. Like spending $20M for $100 of use benefit.
Why not have communites with crushed gravel pathways like the national mall-done well would be beautiful
MrM wrote:
Is TARP illegal? Will China raise tariffs on the goods it buys from the U.S. Stay tuned (or not.)
Are we subject to WTO rules?
Give the money back!!
"Cool, man. These sidewalks are great for skateboarding."
"Yea, man. It's like they did it for the skateboarders, since nobody else really uses them."
Only when the federal government starts a bulldozing program will I believe they have finally figured out the problem. When you don't know the problem, it is almost impossible to figure out the solution.
:
This country has real problems, and all the Ny Post can focus on is their fromt row seats to the victoria secret fashion show....sheeezus
To repeat, on my walk down Biscayne Blvd, all the towers had
planned for shops on the first floor. There was a CVS and a restaurant
and nothing else for the 4 blocks I walked. And I think the restaurant was
in a somewhat older building. Not even
a smooth concrete floor inside.
OT: Middle-class trade war. Wife dragged me to a cookware store today to buy cake pans (for my birthday cake, so can't complain). We don't like to buy Chinese-made goods and that's a problem even in a medium-high-end store like this, no matter what famous brand name is stamped on the bottom. But this time there were piles of US-made bakeware from several small manufacturers -- mostly "to the trade" vendors, but selling here at retail to the public. The clerk told us that customers were increasingly refusing to buy Chinese made pots and pans.
As I said, this is a medium-high-end store; the working class are probably buying cheap Chinese at Walmart, they got no choice for the price they can afford. But I find it interesting that the elite of this save-the-whales/recycle everything/alternative energy/eat local organic food college town is also embracing dont'-buy-Chinese.
Do you have somrthing against loungerie models?
"When you don't know the problem, it is almost impossible to figure out the solution."
It's usually the other way around - we know all the solutions but have no idea what the problem is. That's why no matter how clever we are nothing essential ever changes.
Rally
doesn't understand the importance of the female
chest.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
We don't want to know what the problem is because we would then realize that there is no solution.
In a neighboring town the stimulus money is being used to make sidewalks wheelchair accessible. Curb cuts, and all that.
"Access for handicap people is too burdensome an expense. I know that sounds insensitive, but it is true. There needs to be some better type of economic benefit balance."
You're all right, Jack?
Nobody serves that market. In 2006, I was told by multiple lenders that under 100K was an automatic 2% rate adjustment. Nobody writes small mortgages.
Since a lot of the problem is tied to the necessity of producing
certain feelings in the alpha male brain of superiority etc, wouldn't it
be cheaper and easier to have let's say, a machine they could plug
into to replicate those feelings?
"We don't want to know what the problem is because we would then realize that there is no solution."
Could be.
So it is better to but them on SSA than to give them access to jobs?
I don't think that is true any more. Course in S. Fla, nobody wants
to loan money to anybody for anything. I exaggerate, but only a tad.
I need some
"As I said, this is a medium-high-end store; the working class are probably buying cheap Chinese at Walmart, they got no choice for the price they can afford. But I find it interesting that the elite of this save-the-whales/recycle everything/alternative energy/eat local organic food college town is also embracing dont'-buy-Chinese."
A young relative of ours works at a Walmart in a small city in south central Pennsylvania. People are spending less, often as little as possible, even at Walmart. Businesses in the area are closing up. The town was once a flourishing railroad hub and the location of the main Pennsylvania RR repair shops.
OTOH, I just read a travel book about Ireland. At one tourist center Celtic jewelry was for sale, made in China.
crazyv wrote:
petitions should have pay/go...
pavel:
Is this town Altoona?
The FHA was created to promote affordable housing yet they are currently trying to prop up the housing market. WTF?? Last time I checked, lower priced homes were more affordable than higher priced homes.
I can't believe anybody here is seriously debating the necessity of sidewalks. Is this a joke? The purpose of them is to clearly delineate where cars are not supposed to be. To say they mean the difference between a safe neighborhood walking experience and an unsafe one should be obvious.
lawyerliz wrote:
You say that like it is a BAD thing...
barfly wrote:
What's this walking you speak of? I thought the "why are they on both sides of the street" made much sense though.
" pavel:
Is this town Altoona? "
Nuke, it is.
Have you never heard of comparative advantage or are you too stupid to understand it?
and all along i thought that's what curbs were for!
What's "scary" is waking up from the state of denial about the solvency of the US and its major banks, mainly the Fed.
Sorry I missed the dead Fed thread. "Independence" is for the people. For government and its agencies, we don't want independence, we want checks and balances. The Fed's balance sheet is unchecked. The Judiciary needs some independence, because it is passive and has no enforcement arm.
The Fed is not passive and it is supposed to enforce regulation. Therefore, it should not be independent or controlled by private bankers.
barfly wrote:
Neither can I. I do agree there is a link between sidewalks and real estate/ economy, but that link is rather tenuous.
Then again, sidewalks not much more OT than krill or climate change
pavel:
If Wal-Mart started layoffs or cutting hours, then I would be concerned. Has your relative mentioned any of this happening?
.....well, I did my part - I called Senator Ensign's office and requested that he invoke parliamentary rules and force the Senate clerk to read the Senate healthcare bill before the full Senate begins formal debate on the legislation. (Senate Rule XIV, paragraph 2, states that every bill and joint resolution "shall receive three readings prior to its passage. Upon demand of a senator, these readings shall be on three different legislative days").
......He didn't demand a reading of the bill, so I will recontact Keegan Strauss (the Ensign aid I previously talked with) and advise him that I will walk the precincts seeking his defeat in his next election. This old boy is pissed!
Bearded genius: have you never heard of consumer leverage through boycott or are you too stupid?
In 1890, it probably had neither plumbing or electric.
I remodeled a house built in 1959, it seriously needed new wiring despite no real damage, and the plumbing was a little suspect in spots. The roof had one or two layers of shingles over the original, but was in good shape.
Nothing ruins a house faster than a leaky roof, and empty houses don't have leaks spotted and fixed quickly.
I had a neighbor have really bad fire, and ended up taking the house to the studs to remodel, the roof joists and roof had to be completely removed and replaced. I would not be surprised to see it standing with mine in another 50 years, but to say either of our houses "lasted" that long is similar to saying a car with 500,000 miles "lasted" that long. We simply don't build houses in the US to stand the test of time, without repeated repair and replacement. Steel roofing has some pretty impressive warranties on them.
"pavel:
If Wal-Mart started layoffs or cutting hours, then I would be concerned. Has your relative mentioned any of this happening? "
Nuke, no, he hasn't, to my knowledge.
lawyerliz wrote:
Since a lot of the problem is tied to the necessity of producing
certain feelings in the alpha male brain of superiority etc, wouldn't it
be cheaper and easier to have let's say, a machine they could plug
into to replicate those feelings?
Definitely. To be fair, can we have another that hits the so-called nesting instinct?
Push another button, bye-bye jealousy... greed... lust... envy? What's left of society without those?
Another for a hit of dopamine, one to flood us with oxytocin. Hell let's get rid of evolutionary drives altogether and replace them with artificial stimulants we can sell to people
In a sense we've already done that to some extent. A Brave New World!
lawyerliz wrote:
I would lend up to 50% of the appraised value of most homes (with clear title) in FL, using my appraiser to be safe.
Three years ago I vacationed in France - Normandy and Paris. Our hosts in Normandy (combination tour guide and B&B) lived in a house (stone) built 500 years ago. There was an addition 200 years ago and another 100 years ago. Very comfortable house. It amazed me how differently the Europeans view their housing stock than do we. Here, a 100 year old house is viewed as a reclamation project or a historical relic. There, its a perfectly fine house. My house is 75 years old. It has 12 inch joists between floors, as I recently discovered trying to rout an internet cable from one floor to another. I needed a drill bit that looked like a unicorn. I can't help but think that our views on what is acceptable housing are going to change drastically.
"In a sense we've already done that to some extent. A Brave New World!"
They're working on it. You don't even need a prescription to buy a TV set.
pavel - It is hard to place blame though. This is what we as a society are willing to pay money for.
That doesn't answer my question...or maybe it does.
listening to the R's defending the insurance companies is a hoot.
C-SPAN2 Live Stream - C-SPAN
nikola tesla wrote:
Most of my family lives in Europe. Although several family members have bought older homes (200 years +), they have all put in extensive renovation efforts. Getting an old house to look really good and function really well usually takes major effort and money. The East Coast city I live in now has a lot of old housing stock in "nice" areas. I wanted to live in one of the older homes, but couldn't find any that were up to snuff. Not everyone makes the necessary investment to bring older homes up to modern standards of comfort and efficiency.
LL,
Here is your idea in action; but you won't like it.
BACK TO BUSINESS; Wall St. Finds Profits Again, Now by Reducing Mortgages - NY Times
"pavel - It is hard to place blame though. This is what we as a society are willing to pay money for."
RIF, it's just we being us. Modern post-industrial society is so inimical to basic human needs (other than food, clothing and shelter) that the urge to escape is inescapable.
I've been tempted myself over the past period of time to get cable TV (we have not watched TV for years) and my wife would not object. But I never go through with it.
nikola tesla wrote:
American houses are more productive than European ones... said EHP snarkily in reference to the economic term of productivity
Bearded Spock wrote:
A related question - where would be today economies of the USA, China, Japan or South Korea, if at some point in their history governments of those countries did not discard Ricardo's recommendation to stick to their relative competitive advantages (which was agriculture and resources at the time) and did not engage in mercantilism?
Tells you something about limits of economic models, doesn't it?
I see a lot of my favorite brains here tonight, so I'd like your opinions, please. Is it possible Wachovia is trying to push me into a loan mod? My payment due date is the 15th of every month with a 30 grace period. This month I started receiving calls on the 20th asking for payment. We were waiting on a commission and kindly told them we would pay online before the grace period was up. Each rep referred us to a loan mod number. We have never been 30 days late on any bill in over 10 years. Our loan is not Freddy or Fanny. We were called every day often twice. Each time we assured them we would pay online on the 15th (last day of grace period) Every rep told us that was fine and we would not be reported 30 days late, but we would be charged a late fee. Fine. We paid online as promised on the last day of the grace period. Today I received a letter of Intent to Default dated the 16th stating we were 2 mo. behind. They wont credit the online payment becuse the 15th was a Sunday and calling the Nov. payment delinquent ONE DAY after the due date. I'vee been on the phone for hours with different Reps and they won't do anything but refer me to the loan mod dept. The house is 6-10% underwater so I guess they really want to push this loan off their books. I don't want a mod, I just want credit for paying within the allowed time with no lates on my credit.
why were you abusing the grace period?
where would be today economies of the USA, China, Japan or South Korea, if at some point in their history governments of those countries did not discard Ricardo's recommendation to stick to their relative competitive advantages
Wheat, rice,fish and kimchi?
There are plenty of buyers, just not at the prices the sellers want.
There are plenty of lenders, but they don't want the terms that borrowers want.
Sidewalks are fine, as long as those who don't want to pay for them aren't forced to.
Mercantilism does indeed help build domestic industries...at the expense of other domestic industries.
Example: sugar import tariffs dive up the price of sugar. it's great for growers, but it sucks for Hershey, Krispy Kreme, etc. and at the expense of sugar consumers.
favoritism is great if you are the favorite. otherwise it sucks.
NEW POLL: How far will mortgage rates rise when the Fed ends MBS purchases?
Personally I'm torn between the last two options, so even I haven't voted in my own poll.
Youshouldaknowed wrote:
There has been talk that Wells Fargo (Wachovia's new owner) is pushing to get as many of the Option ARMS modified to fixed before they start exploding. These were the mortgages that sank Wachovia.
OK, wiseguy. Anything can confer "comparative advantage" especially in the short run. Slave wages, dangerous working conditions, hidden defects in the product not recoverable through subsequent tort action...
Consumer boycott of a lower-priced product confers "comparative advantage". What's your point?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
You want us to predict rates in 2012 or 2013? Get a grip.
I didn't have the money before the 14th. Why is using the terms the company provides abuse?
Rajesh wrote:
Did you check the poll? The last option says "the Fed won't stop".
Bearded Spock wrote:
That's why you have to pick your poison carefully, and put a lot of thought into choosing what you want to develop and nurture - sugar-cane growing farms or industries that pay decent wages (high tech, advanced machinery, bio tech, etc)
i'm sorry- i reread your comments- this was the 1st time you paid on the grace period end date?
This illustrates the American idiocracy. "Let others pay for public roads, infrastructure...I'll pay for what I want."
Of course he assumes the non-payer would never take a free-ride on a public sidewalk, but he said "pay", not "use". That's a tell.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
The Fed will stop -- once housing prices stop dropping. I'm hoping that will happen in 2012 but 2013 is also possible. I know I'm a hopeless optimist.
Nuke wrote:
The Japanese haven't found it yet.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Or maybe they have: JAL to propose 40 pct cut to pension payouts-media
| Reuters
No it doesn't. You don't seem to understand the concept of opportunity costs. I'm not knocking a voluntary boycott, but when you are helping people you don't know at the expense of other people you don't know, you could be depriving the very people you are trying to help of better opportunities.
Slaves don't get wages. Even China has at will employment so people who work where they work do so because they believe it's the best opportunity they have. Your boycott makes these poor foreign people even worse off. A crappy job is better than no job and that's the other option for them. Maybe you don't give a shit about them, but spare me the sanctimony if that's the case. I was being charitable calling you stupid.
I have a trade deficit with my grocer, but we are still both better off because we trade. I don't have time to grow my own food because I'm doing something more productive.
Countries are no different than people that way.
barfly wrote:
I think those things are called curbs. Of course, if there are no curbs, grass makes the same impression.
We have had the loan for five years and we have cut it close a couple of times. we do a lot of buiness with the State of Ca. and they can be awfully slow to pay sometimes. Still ,we were called EVERY DAY. We actually picked up everytime to reassure them we would pay them. Once a Rep told use to set up a check by phone for up to ten days AFTER the grace period and there would be no late reported. We didn't fall for that. If we had I think they would have forced us into a loan mod program.
Anything can confer "comparative advantage" especially in the short run. Slave wages, dangerous working conditions, hidden defects in the product not recoverable through subsequent tort action...
Or a war in which your competitor's economic base is destroyed or degraded, his assets seized and his markets appropriated.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
........you'll be sorry if you do, pavel. It's total garbage and a waste of time - we canceled our DirecTV and later DishNet - and haven't regretted it since. Saving $840. a year hasn't been bad either.. But then I do miss out on all the apparently funny movie and TV memes from the TV zealots here.
MrM wrote:
If you would like, we can debate their desirability. I don't even view necessity as a debate, at least not on lightly traveled streets. I lived in a nice part of LA, and now live in a nice part of Dallas. No sidewalks in either place. In crappy, dense parts of LA, always there were sidewalks.
Bearded Spock wrote:
Perhaps you should visit a re-education camp; spend a little time there; meet the people. Just be sure they remember that you are visitor and are allowed to leave.
nikola tesla wrote:
Actually I like your posts, but you call yourself Tesla. I'm sure this could be done without wires. Wardenclyffe Tower - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Broadcast power, baby. Its the next big thing.
OT, but quite illuminating
Iraq report: Secret papers reveal blunders and concealment - Telegraph
Just a few examples
Tony Blair, the former prime minister, misled MPs and the public throughout 2002 when he claimed that Britain’s objective was “disarmament, not regime change” and that there had been no planning for military action. In fact, British military planning for a full invasion and regime change began in February 2002.
The need to conceal this from Parliament and all but “very small numbers” of officials “constrained” the planning process. The result was a “rushed”operation “lacking in coherence and resources” which caused “significant risk” to troops and “critical failure” in the post-war period.
Operations were so under-resourced that some troops went into action with only five bullets each. Others had to deploy to war on civilian airlines, taking their equipment as hand luggage. Some troops had weapons confiscated by airport security.
Commanders reported that the Army’s main radio system “tended to drop out at around noon each day because of the heat”. One described the supply chain as “absolutely appalling”, saying: “I know for a fact that there was one container full of skis in the desert.”
Fortunately, the Europeans had enough common sense and decency not to return Blair back to power. Let him continue writing his memoirs at Yale.
I won't even ask if we'll ever get anything close to that level of scrutiny in the US. I know the answer.
Rajesh,
The poll basically concerns the Fed's actions early next year -- only so much you can throw in a title, you know?
I'm basically with you... if the Fed stops they'll only do so temporarily, and then they'll continue until forced to stop (i.e., currency crisis).
nikola tesla wrote:
I'm going with irrational fad or bubble.
Been there, done that. "Slave wages" is ironic. Careful how you throw "stupid" around, son.
Students at my Alma Mater were part of a large movement to force divestment in South Africa in the '80s. "But you naive liberals, you're just hurting the locals", they snickered. "Fuck you, we can see through your phony Economics, we take your classes, remember?"
We were right. They divested. Change happened. Bob Dobbs is wiser than you.
Bearded Spock wrote:
Spock, these are textbook examples. You still have not answered the question about the success of countries that pursued mercantilism to develop their industries. At the same time, Guatemala still enjoys its comparative advantage in growing bananas.
Countries are different from people in how they think about long-term and how they can command resources.
barfly wrote:
Sidewalks can be as contentious as mix-use, transit, and global-warming. For some political entertainment, someday attend a planning commission meeting where a McMansion filled gated-community is being discussed and - just for fun - go and propose sidewalks be included (bring a helmet).
Sidewalks are a basic sign (in the mythological sense of the word, sign) of ruralness (or not). Ruralness is a form of exclusivity which makes the neighborhood feel even wealthier.
My money of course is on the old queen.
"........you'll be sorry if you do, pavel. It's total garbage and a waste of time - we canceled our DirecTV and later DishNet - and haven't regretted it since. Saving $840. a year hasn't been bad either.. But then I do miss out on all the apparently funny movie and TV memes from the TV zealots here."
Thanks, BSR. You are right.
hopefully 'extend and pretend' will bring about a populist 3rd party to power ( perhaps by 2016? ) since the bought and paid for assclown politicians in Congress ( on both sides of the aisle ) continue to kick the can down the road.
If not then it's going to get fugly....
MrM wrote:
Not sure about that. Look at what the Italians vote for: Berlusconi. He'd fit right in as a REAL Merican.
nikola tesla wrote:
Nothing at all. Are you daring me to post a picture of my wife on the Hoocoodanode tiles?
We know, the US, with the fattest cows in the world, should stick to making butter and let Germany and Japan, with their engineering and manufacturing prowess, make all the guns.
*Tony Blair, the former prime minister, misled MPs and the public throughout 2002 when he claimed that Britain’s objective was “disarmament, not regime change” and that there had been no planning for military action. *
The Sword:
pavelreads.com
But no one is forced to pay. You can always leave the taxing authority.
Ever toss a quart of gasoline on a fire. Big flame for a bit, then a sad unhappy fire. Think now of the various twentieth century baby booms and the oil boom. Notice how each time as the baby boom kids grow up the economy expands people become rich and the easy money flows. Then they enter their sixties and the economy hits the wall.
So yeah, no solution. The US baby boomers period of high productivity is done for. Now they will begin to consume far more than they produce. The economy becomes a sad unhappy fire. People talk of Japans lost decade. But 1989 was how long ago? Does anyone expect Japan's economy to come roaring back?
One top of this, oil is going to get scarce and prone to price shocks.
"house (stone) built 500 years ago."
In 1976 We bought an old house built in 1798. Our family had the house evaluated by the local architectural committee and decided to do a rehab to keep as much as possible of the era of the house while making it livable for a family of 6 in the 1970s. It is still a wonderful home that supports a family and is in top-notch condition. The house, called a four square house, had 8 rooms, 8 fireplaces, and a large working attic to house a loom. We had a garden, a barn to house the animals, and plantings to help with the berries, apples, asparagus, as well as the usual veggies that a family needs. The farm was located on only 5 acres and could be self-sufficient even today.
"Only 5 acres"?
American exceptionalism, I'm afraid.
I don't know about electric, but it certainly always had plumbing.
My mom was born in that house in '23, and altho my family wasn't the
first owners it was clearly designed with a bathroom. It had a claw footed
bathtub they talked of, but not after I was born.
American exceptionalism, I'm afraid.
We are not that! My hub worked for the PO, I held several part-time jobs, we had four children, and we bought that old farm at a very reasonable price, in order to get us a chance to connect with the earth and the history of our community. We are a very low level earner family but we have always allocated our resources to our best advantage.
With the pig the subject dies. Excellent.
The cities will be part of the country; I shall live 30 miles from my office in one direction, under a pine tree; my secretary will live 30 miles away from it too, in the other direction, under another pine tree. We shall both have our own car. We shall use up tires, wear out road surfaces and gears, consume oil and gasoline. All of which will necessitate a great deal of work
... enough for all. - Le Corbusier, The Radiant City (1967)
Sidewalks are evil. They consume vast amounts of land, they isolate properties, they encourage faster traffic, they infringe on the quiet enjoyment of private property even as they take private property. I am of course refering to exurban sidewalks. Urban sidewalks are part of public spaces and not inefficient transportation corridor "enhancements."
Rob Dawg wrote:
HA! Too funny. I guess the future looked different in 67. Less people I suppose. What was it: something like 1.5 million in LA in 1950? Hard to imagine now.
5 acres may not be much by American standards of 40 to the ass, but that's because we stole California from Mexico, despite protest from New England Yanks.
have you tried off the air- the new digital broadcasting is really quite good- get PBS and ABC and that is plenty of TV. Got rid of cable several years ago and other than a few sporting events haven't missed it.
The Fed has been very successful atg keeping mortgage rates low, due to their MBS purchase. Let's hope it will continue that way, because itg will start solving the Gordian knot of the real estate house bust in the US. And that will make banks and the economy stronger.
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