Compare the size in population of the ten highest UE states with ten lowest in population. We just need to empty the highest states of people and things will be just fine.
Jobless recovery becomes recovery-less mountain of lies and debt.
Somebody give me a tranquilizer....I just can't stand the almost tantric level of anxiety.
This slow motion trainwreck is stretching out longer than I'd thought.
OT: Pandemic Flu. This will solve the unemployment problem. Quoted from Recombinomics | Elegant Evolution today, and happening right now in Norway... (Remember, D225G. That's the killer. It's undiagnosable in the nose swabs. So, watch the way people are dying and their age range. And note it's moving west, now in Poland, north into Norway, and east into Eastern Ukraine. It will soon enough be at a social gathering near you and me. Best news so far, Tamiflu works. This is one nasty bug that deserves wide berth and close watching)
D225G in Fatal H1N1 Cases in Norway?
Recombinomics Commentary 14:05
November 20, 2009
Laboratory tests from 70 patients are examined, of which eight patients have died. Total is the mutation found in five of the patients. Two of them are dead, while the other three have been hospitalized with serious illness in intensive care units.
The new mutated virus thrives further down the respiratory system than the original. It shuts down the lungs of patients, which means more severe disease than the original virus, which first affects the throat and upper respiratory tract.
Since the new virus in the lungs and is only detected in patients who have been admitted to hospital, experts expect that it is less contagious than has affected most who are infected so far.
Both the vaccine and Tamiflu as a treatment will work also for this variant of the virus, "says director Geir Stene-Larsen at the NIPH.
Niman: The above translation suggests that D225G has been found in the lungs of dead and dying patients in Norway
Who are the power brokers in this fascist state?
I recollect that there was an interview on Charlie Rose - person unknown - who referred to our nation as a "corporate republic".
"JAMES GALBRAITH: It is a corporate republic.
BILL MOYERS: Which means that the purpose of government is to divert funds from the public sector to the private sector?
JAMES GALBRAITH: I think it's very clear. They also turned over the regulatory apparatus to the regulated industries. They turned over the henhouse to the foxes in every single case. And that is the source of the decline in, the abandonment of environmental responsibility, the source of the collapse of consumer protection, and the source of the collapse of the financial system, all trace back to a common root, which is the failure to maintain a public sector that works in the public interest, that provides discipline and standards, a framework within which the private sector can operate and compete. That's been abandoned."
all trace back to a common root, which is the failure to maintain a public sector that works in the public interest, that provides discipline and standards, a framework within which the private sector can operate and compete. That's been abandoned.
Spell that R E P U B L I C A N? The night watchmen with the mantra, "Drill, Drill, Drill."
Table E. States with statistically significant employment changes from
October 2008 to October 2009, seasonally adjusted
I looked really, really hard at Table E and I couldn't find any green shoots, nor any "saved or created jobs."
All of the numbers have a "-" sign in front - what's up with that?
anyone know if UE actually rose .4%, or if it was just (mostly) more people moving from 'given up' to 'looking'? cause I can see the move happening as people realized they will need money for christmas (or they knew theres seasonal hirings and they have a chance at a job)
anybody working main street could have told you this was happening.
Unfortunately, the media and their guests are all clueless high flyers and only see main street from behind tinted windows on their way to the country club.
Perhaps you folks know something. There aren't any unemployed MBAs or business majors I'd be competing against for an entry level supply chain management position at a Fortune 500, are there? Something tells me I won't get a call back, but heh, I have to do something to get my 2 apps out a week.
How does one vote for a Mish world, leave it up to private capitalists to work it all out? The Bush Administration just did that, Depty Secty of Agriculture...ex head of the Cattlemen's Assn, Chris Cox at the SEC never saw a governmental program he liked. It was a Ronald Reagan dream for 8 years. The country is bankrupt and dead.
All Mass delegation voted against the Audit the FED bill, including Senator Wannabe Capuano. This state is so crooked it makes Gotti look like an angel.
Capuano is a shill beyond a shill a vote for this guy is another leg down in Massachusetts that is for dam sure.
all trace back to a common root, which is the failure to maintain a public sector that works in the public interest, that provides discipline and standards, a framework within which the private sector can operate and compete. That's been abandoned."
but but but we elected a Democratic President and Congress- must be better right?
This resonates....a friend in CO had real issues with a regulated company (insurance) and the state Consumer Advocate told my friend to speak to an assocaition that collectively is a lobby group for insurance companies - friggen wierd if you ask me.
There aren't any unemployed MBAs or business majors I'd be competing against for an entry level supply chain management position at a Fortune 500, are there?
Nah, you should be good. They're all working at Wendy's.
What are the people of Mass going to do about it? Are they going to hurl harsh words in the direction of their representatives, eh? I think we have seen how effective harsh words are.
What are the people of Mass going to do about it? Are they going to hurl harsh words in the direction of their representatives, eh? I think we have seen how effective harsh words are.
Interesting... our society/government tried to force/incentivize us into becoming a nation of gamblers, and succeeded brilliantly. We were even dumb enough to gamble on shelter. So, unemployment just becomes a newer type of gambling! Why are folks upset? I thought we loved risk, and nothing is more risky and fun than knowing whether or not you will have a job tomorrow, or be able to get a new one, except perhaps Russian roulette. Go gambler nation!!
Slumdog wrote:
[failure to maintain a public sector that works in the public interest, that provides discipline and standards, a framework within which the private sector can operate and compete. That's been abandoned.]
Spell that R E P U B L I C A N?
Since 1945:
Reps have had both houses and the white house for 4 years.
Dems 19.
Since 1945:
Reps have controlled the congress for 12 years.
Dems 43.
"Jobless recovery becomes recovery-less mountain of lies and debt."
Yeah I was thinking the same thing after reading the economists' forecasts for house prices in the last post, A Few House Price Forecasts
If they all think housing has another leg down coming, and we know that much/most of the earnings from the FIRE sector are related to housing prices, how can anyone be expecting a sustained recovery??
Even the 's chief economist is calling for more deterioration.
anyone know if UE actually rose .4%, or if it was just (mostly) more people moving from 'given up' to 'looking'? cause I can see the move happening as people realized they will need money for christmas (or they knew theres seasonal hirings and they have a chance at a job)
actually the number of people in the work force was barely changed - although I suppose that does support part of your contention since in previous months the number had been declining. However, the jump in unemployment was entirely due to fewer people having jobs. In fact that survey had the job losses in October over a million compared with the payroll report of just 190,000 (190,000 has now become "just')
only in the real economy, squid are on track for a record breaking earnings and bonus year. Problem is, squid are greedy and have an exclusive squid nation, only squid can participate. If you don't have the genes of a squid...you lose. Too bad most of us have vertebrae and a frontal lobe.
slumdog
you're back, sorry country aint bankrupt (close to it maybe) and certainly not dead and isnt going to be.takes a long time for the country to die,ie roman empire, british empire, napoleonic empire(maybe that was a little bit faster). as for the rest of your comment bush is gone)he left us a lot) but it is this regime that counts
Sorry, I'm still thinking about nat.gas and the historic supply demonstrated yesterday. To me this says industry isn't working in a major way despite the rosy numbers coming out of gov on mfg gains. Then again, I could be all wet. If however my logic is correct, it also points to an erosion in employment in that sector.
"So here’s the real tragedy of the botched bailout: Government officials,* perhaps influenced by spending too much time with bankers, *forgot that if you want to govern effectively you have retain the trust of the people. And by treating the financial industry — which got us into this mess in the first place — with kid gloves, they have squandered that trust." PK, NYT
It is a little confusing right now. Oil is high, as is gas, but nat gas is low. Oil and gasoline aren't in particularly high demand. Of course, someone will argue this is due to dollar devaluation, but then nat gas should be through the roof.
I don't know about the rest of the country but in Vermont we have actually had above average temperatures - If that is true across much of the NE then that could account for the softness in gas demand.
I think he's finally getting it. Now we just have to rid him of the idea that an additional stimulus package is in the best interest of the American economy.
The damage done during the Monkey's Admin (TM on the Monkey) was nearly total. Religious Right had its day, and if Armageddon came sooner, it would be just that much closer to Rapture. There's not a person here who did not watch the "nightwatchman" political philosophy bubble up. No civil service worker ever challenges leadership. They thrive on anticipating what their political bosses want (I do biz w/one of the Federal sub entities and the moment Obama was seen as front runner, the philosophy I was told was the more appropriate changed.) The Madoff scandal is a reasonable example. The Atlanta HLBank purchase of Countrywide billions of worthless debt when TanMan was in charge was another.
It's not unexpected. If the leadership is in favor of small government, the outcome is a cessation of proactive protective supervision or review. The Nightwatchman concept is straight from the Republican think tanks. It's not my concept; it's the consequence of the application of theirs. The Corporate Republic ruled. The citizens of the world got screwed.
To say the fault lies in the current admin is crazy talk. The legacy left by Bush was bankruptcy. Any effort to save the state, the Bernanke approach, is now in full swing. The alternative is individual and nation state default. Game reset. What do you think those in power should do? Hand over the Navy and AirForce to the creditors and say, "Duh, we're broke"?
All Mass delegation voted against the Audit the FED bill, including Senator Wannabe Capuano. This state is so crooked it makes Gotti look like an angel.
Capuano is a shill beyond a shill a vote for this guy is another leg down in Massachusetts that is for dam sure.
Have you noticed that the Italian Mafia never made any headway here in MA, unlike RI and NY. I think you may have stumbled on the reason why-
What are the people of Mass going to do about it? Are they going to hurl harsh words in the direction of their representatives, eh? I think we have seen how effective harsh words are.
They'll (actually we'll) keep on electing these clowns. If you'll recall, Gary Studds continued to be sent back to Congress long after his affair with a male page became known-
How does one vote for a Mish world, leave it up to private capitalists to work it all out? The Bush Administration just did that, Depty Secty of Agriculture...ex head of the Cattlemen's Assn, Chris Cox at the SEC never saw a governmental program he liked. It was a Ronald Reagan dream for 8 years. The country is bankrupt and dead.
In the world Mish speaks of, GS would have gone bankrupt in 2008, CitiG would no longer exist, WaMu shareholders would have been wiped out along with Countrywide, Bear, AIG, Deutsche Bank, UBS, SocGen, and RBS.
If the connected players are protected from the consequences of bad decision-making or poor planning, and are then "bailed out" to the tune of trillions of dollars, you do not have "unregulated free market capitalism." That is NOT CAPITALISM.
Rage all you want, but Ayn Rand and the capitalists are not to blame for our current situation, and neither is Reagan, whose "de-regulated world" bears very little resemblance to the naked aggression and thievery we have been subjected to - the authoritarian, top-down Mafia that has seized control like to QUOTE Rand and her ilk, but you need to start watching what they DO, not what they SAY.
I mean, if the Tolkien fan next door runs over your mailbox, it wouldn't be fair to blame his actions on the author, right? Or to presume that the author was somehow pro-vandalism because one of his readers damaged your property. So just because the powers-that-be professed allegieance to free-market capitalism does not establish that free-market capitalism itself is to blame for our situation.
Or another example, the game of Yahtzee does not "suck" because your big brother cheated by using loaded dice! It just turns out that what you were engaged in was not a game of Yahtzee ... it was cheating, plain and simple.
ate TG - I think the rate at which a society deteriotes has accellerated over time
Ottoman centuries
Roman Empire decades
England years
US ?
Barley- Unless by Roman you mean Byzantium the Roman's preceded the Ottamans and they and the Romans took centuries to decline, the British although they had a vast overseas empire they never reached the kind dominance that the Roman's had. In fact considering that they had to be bailed out by the US twice one can argue whether in fact they were dominant at all. So I think if we are looking at the decline of the US empire my guess is that a significant fraction of a century is still the time table.
Yeah crazyv, I'd agree with you there (I hail from VT too-rain sucks this time of year). But industry is the largest user of natgas if I got my stats right (and its way possible I didn't). This means heavy industry like steel production and other energy intensive operations. Its something to research further. I'm pressed for time today, so....thats for another day.
PS: I checked my weather data, plowable snow didn't occur until the first of Dec. last year. I always get anxious for snow pack to start developing, I hate snow drought years.
California still proves a trend setter. If Caslifornia is experiencing series record unemployment you can expect other States to follow suit.
In a statistical observation look at MA-CT-RI. 9%-9%-13%. This is a contigious sociopoliticoeconomic region. Tells you about the flexibility in reporting not actual conditions. Use care comparing numbers across borders.
Rage all you want, but Ayn Rand and the capitalists are not to blame for our current situation, and neither is Reagan, whose "de-regulated world" bears very little resemblance to the naked aggression and thievery we have been subjected to - the authoritarian, top-down Mafia that has seized control like to QUOTE Rand and her ilk, but you need to start watching what they DO, not what they SAY.
You're kidding, right? Absolute greed at the expense of everyone else is the logical conclusion to this worldview. I'm so glad I got through my Ayn Rand phase (and left it) in college.
In the world Mish speaks of, GS would have gone bankrupt in 2008, CitiG would no longer exist, WaMu shareholders would have been wiped out along with Countrywide, Bear, AIG, Deutsche Bank, UBS, SocGen, and RBS.
These events occurring is still a necessary precondition to entering a sustainable recovery. Lacking this, moral hazard will continue to rot the entire economic apparatus.
A fresh coat of paint on a sunny spring day doesn't make a nice house any more attractive when it has an uncontrolled termite problem.
nanoo
what i meant was beating them with wet noodle does about of much good as telling how we feel about what they are allowing to happen.
i want to recall everyone that got into this scheme,put a placade on their forehead that they did not represent us and were not wanted anyone, any money over their salary would be confiscatedand blah blah
"we love the free market when it is working and mark to market is of course the best method when we are making boat loads of money, when markets are going up government should try and stop that - that would be socialism. But when we start losing money and prices are falling mark to market is terrible and the government should lend us money and stop us from selling in order to avoid further declines in prices not to do so will cause socialism because it will require the government to take over banks"
In a statistical observation look at MA-CT-RI. 9%-9%-13%. This is a contigious sociopoliticoeconomic region. Tells you about the flexibility in reporting not actual conditions. Use care comparing numbers across borders.
RI is a unique case. There is a lot of business like plating there that doesn't exist elsewhere in the US, and which has lately been moving to China where environmental regulations are far more relaxed or even non-existent. MA's numbers can also be skewed. A lot of folks from MA moved to NH, but have continued to work in MA while simultaneously skewing NH's voting more liberal. When they're laid off, they'll typically file in MA where the benefits are more generous, making MA numbers look worse and NH numbers look better. I'd suspect that this is the only reason that NH lagged the rest of the country in going into recession.
Your point is, however, well taken-
I don't have the statistics but within the industry category do they break out utilities who use nat gas for electricity generation. Also I would think that industry use would be fairly stable month on month so the consumer demand from weather probably has more impact on the month to month variation.
No; he's right, and you must be joking. The govt in this country, both state and federal has grown much faster than the rest of the country, and what they've been with this extra governmental capacity has been subverting the free market system. What did you think they were doing with all of that debt? Creating private sector jobs?
I think the data provided by CR, although CR is more optimistic than most of us doomsayers, points to exacerbation of the RRE market delinquencies and defaults as UE continues to erode. What will be the icing on that cake are the coming CRE losses hidden on balance sheets, some of which is already on FDIC balance sheet but not yet realized as the bill won't be due until next year. The whole joke of unemployment not being a threat to recovery and a lagging indicator is moot this time as this recession is centered upon core economic lynchpins, formerly safe and a shelter literally for sober and sane adults before the frenzy began. Its not going to end nice and wrapped up in a pretty package with a pretty bow everyone once to have.
The solution, then, is to shrink the pool of money.
I think so. The amount of speculative "capital" (inflation) that has been hoarded by a minority rather than equitably distributed is doing more harm than good. It's definitely not being put to productive use. Rather, it is bidding up the price of paper assets and being used to strip mine companies of pensions and other benefits all of which get dumped on the government. By preserving the value of fraudulent credit, Bernanke is not increasing employment or living standards. He is making people pay more for houses, energy, food, etc. Not good.
I think the vast majority would be far better served if we let the debt bubble deflate back to 2003 levels, if not further back.
These events occurring is still a necessary precondition to entering a sustainable recovery. Lacking this, moral hazard will continue to rot the entire economic apparatus.
A fresh coat of paint on a sunny spring day doesn't make a nice house any more attractive when it has an uncontrolled termite problem.
I would have gone with mold; breathing the air will make you sick-
Reps have had both houses and the white house for 4 years.
Dems 19.
All it tells me is that the Republicans are more efficient with their time to screw J6P. Democrats need more time to make up for their productivity problems. How are you reading it?
"In response to criticism that Goldman should share more of its wealth with investors, company spokesman Lucas van Praag says shareholders "have historically been more focused on the absolute return on equity and on book value per share growth" than per-share earnings."
noob, 3 torches, I too anticipated the BK of all those noob listed. I looked forward then to the redistribution of wealth consequential to those failures, especially the purging of the long seated top players, Rockefellers, and especially the Mellons. I had so hoped for that as I'm from the other side of the tracks.
What happened after that fact that they were all illiquid is what books will be written about. The plutocracy, to protect their stores of wealth, to save themselves, manipulated the political structure. All the rest has been shadow puppetry.
While I was gung ho low priced PM's prior to that, it was in anticipation of the liquidation of the illiquidity, the emantization of the eschaton moment, when I knew in 05 the PM's would rise to unbelievable prices due to the same ole panic and fear that repeats in we humans.
Thanks crazyv...that is helpful and you probably are right. I'm ready for snow, bring it already! So your handle is crazy-vermonter...didn't pick up on that before. There are quite a few of us.
You're kidding, right? Absolute greed at the expense of everyone else is the logical conclusion to this worldview.
I am really, really, not going to have the Ayn Rand debate in these threads again. So for the last time:
The FIRE economy is the very antithesis of the productive-capacity economy Rand idolized.
Banksters like the kind we currently have in charge were viewed as parasites and leeches, indeed, as vampire squid in Rand's world.
In a naked capitalist, greed-rules, everyone looks out for his own welfare with no .gov backstops, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS TOO BIG TO FAIL.
THE TOO BIG TO FAIL DOCTRINE IS NOT RANDIAN ... IT IS DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED TO RANDIAN PHILOSOPHY.
Rand was never in favor of bailouts, destruction of the property of others, or the naked theft of your tax dollars to prop up a handful of national banks and insurance companies. This is exactly the kind of government backed extortion that her main characters, thin and cardboard though they may be, railed against and warned about.
You don't have to like Rand or her philosophy (nor am I really required to defend it), but authentic literary criticism and valid economic debate requires you to understand it and avoid mischaracterization - and based on some of your stated opinions, it appears that Rand may actually be an ally, not an enemy.
In other words: Readin' Atlas Shrugged (and Mish, for that matter) - yer doin' it rong.
(What's a cyclically adjusted PE ratio? It's a measure that smooths out the effect of the business cycle on corporate profit margins, thus providing a more stable view of where stocks are trading relative to long-term corporate earnings power. If you use a single-year PE ratio at an extreme of the cycle, you'll get a misleading view of the market's value. At cycle lows, like now, stocks look artificially expensive. At cycle peaks, like 2007, they look artificially cheap. The cyclically adjusted PE smooths that all out.)
Am I the only one who wants to take my only vacation of the year and try to attend the shareholders' meeting (even buy 1 share just so I can get in) and sit there with a facehugger on? Maybe some faux squid on my neck and yell "Ack! Its got a juggular!" as I fall down with alka seltzer foaming out of my mouth just for the cathartic affect?
OK, doomstead improvement day but I'll return later for BFF. Thanks everyone for the always interesting, thought provoking, great conversation. CR rocks.
I just placed a call to Rep. Lynch's (MA) office to voice my displeasure with his vote against the Audit the Fed bill. The kid that answered the phone had no idea what I was talking about so my guess is call volume is light.
I think the vast majority would be far better served if we let the debt bubble deflate back to 2003 levels, if not further back.
I do not disagree, and fundamentally this is necessary. But good god would it ever be a spectacular show if all that leverage needed to unwind, and politicians are loathe to sit on their hands while it happens.
I was talking with an investment group during the past couple of days. It hit me, after their third question about capital structures and 'leveragability', that institutional investors are completely incapable of conceiving a business plan that does not involve cranking it up with high levels of leverage. Their entire world-view revolves around the idea that directly-invested capital, on it own, is an irresponsible action unless accompanied with large amounts of leverage.
We really need to purge the world of this concept. It's quite damaging.
Good thing Obama is going to hold a jobs summit. Will he be as successful in twisting the arms of the large employers as he was in getting banks to make small business loans?
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The IntercontinentalExchange is probing trades in U.S. dollar index futures that briefly showed a massive 9% jump on Friday morning.
The lead contract surged as high as 82.18, up from a 75.38 close on Thursday. Such a move was improbable given that in spot markets, the dollar's moves against major currencies such as the euro were limited to about 1%. ICE investigating spike in dollar index futures - MarketWatch
If this is the worst recession since 1931, we should see similar long-term valuations. Which, looking at 1921, 1932, and 1981, would put it around 5-7. We haven't even gotten close yet.
And that means an awful lot of leverage to get rid of before we do.
3 torches, the concept of Rand must include somewhere that capitalism leads to a balance of greed, that there is no concentration of wealth. When it happens, those who have it rarely voluntarily let go. Bill Gates is a rarity. Mellon is more typical, Rockefeller Family w/ $28Billion is more typical. The patriarch is long dead. The power rules. Weirdly, it's like tribalism in Africa. If you're related, you're in on the goodies.
When this opportunity came about to cut out their golden hearts, I was so, so for it, and then TARP passed, supported then by literally all the press, except people commenting in the blogs, Mish, here, the usual suspects. That's when I saw the true nature of money power, unvarnished.
TARP was "it" for me. For me, there was BT and AT (before and after TARP). Now it's shadow theater. Gold thinks so. The USD will lose much of its buying power. The game has been decided.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/20/2009 - 11:05 am
The solution, then, is to shrink the pool of money.
You got it. That's what would happen if we didn't have to monkey around so that some monkeys are benefited at the expense of other monkeys. The funny thing is that it will happen anyway, just in less direct and more fundamentally irrational ways.
The IntercontinentalExchange is probing trades in U.S. dollar index futures that briefly showed a massive 9% jump on Friday morning. The lead contract surged as high as 82.18, up from a 75.38 close on Thursday. Such a move was improbable...
Our friends at Goldman just swept some money off the table due to some poorly-written contract language mentioning DXY, combined with a push of the Magic Manipulation Button that created the price spike so they could execute. The probe will find nothing 'illegal'.
TARP was "it" for me. For me, there was BT and AT (before and after TARP). Now it's shadow theater. Gold thinks so. The USD will lose much of its buying power. The game has been decided.
I am generally very bearish during this recession/depresssion. One thing I've been following lately is the Baltic Dry Index, which is up about 103% in the last 6 weeks, including 14 consecutive up days. This doesn't mesh with what I see and hear in most every other arena. What gives? Is this a or a quick, short term run-up? Any thoughts?
3 torches, thx for that. We see things differently, as I will always be an on my knees bleeding heart, wailing with those who are suffering.. But when it comes to this plutocracy, corporate republic, I saw the raw power that arose out of fear, fear which was whipped up and stoked by those with the most to lose. In essence, at that moment, I quit.
I'm always defensive and this time, I'm watching as an outsider. This is not my country. I have no political power except my vote. But I do have the power to live well and extract a good living. That's what I'm up to now, besides acting towards those who are in need, apolitically.
Nor did they have pension funds with billions of dollars and a need to get 8% return either.
GD1 was the end of the financialization of the British capitalist regime--you should look there, not to '30s US, for too much idle money chasing unsustainable returns.
Stox lost about 90% of their value top-to-bottom in GD1, but they didn't have fancy computers back then, with which to manipulate things...
Nor did they have pension funds with billions of dollars and a need to get 8% return either.
The thing about fancy risk management systems and high-speed real-time computer automation is that they're very similar to having a 2 wheel drive vs a 4WD truck. They're helpful in normal market conditions, but when it gets really muddy it just gets you in that much deeper before you're completely screwed.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/20/2009 - 11:21 am
Their entire world-view revolves around the idea that directly-invested capital, on it own, is an irresponsible action unless accompanied with large amounts of leverage.
We really need to purge the world of this concept. It's quite damaging.
It's popular because it's easy. Creating value, innovation, and useful, unique products is hard, as is living like a rock-star on razor-thin transaction margins of a boring old-school bank or financial firm. Leverage is the sausage machine and risk is the part no one wants to see, they just want the finished product.
Stox lost about 90% of their value top-to-bottom in GD1, but they didn't have fancy computers back then, with which to manipulate things
I doubt there was $60+TT derivatives market without any capital, just credit entries in a ledger somewhere. This round of deleveraging is much worse and on top of an economy that is fundamentaly and structurally much less vibrant.
It's popular because it's easy. Creating value, innovation, and useful, unique products is hard, as is living like a rock-star on razor-thin transaction margins of a boring old-school bank or financial firm. Leverage is the sausage machine and risk is the part no one wants to see, they just want the finished product.
Well, luckily this has an easy solution: just sour the milk. If leverage become both expensive and volatile, this problem will solve itself.
Equally impressive is the rebound which blew through 1.5 dollars/euro, before settling back to normal. Stops blown away on both sides -- no auto stabilizers left in place -- betcha all the traders are sweating bullets knowing things could get out-of-hand in either direction now!
And that means an awful lot of leverage to get rid of before we do.
Noob,
We are in basic agreement on that point. I was merely pointing out that the blog you referenced was using a "cyclically adjusted" pe - without saying so.
GD1 was the end of the financialization of the British capitalist regime--you should look there, not to '30s US, for too much idle money chasing unsustainable returns.
Just curious. I don't really know. Do you think the "British capitalist regime" is where we are now?
I remember reading that it did not work out so well for them. This is prior WWII. They were still bleeding from WWI, at least government funding was. They were an exporter still of finished goods so I see where that had problems. Are you talking about the money sucked out of the colonies?
Noob,
We are in basic agreement on that point. I was merely pointing out that the blog you referenced was using a "cyclically adjusted" pe - without saying so.
You were responding to shill. But I take your point, and it's important. Plus it's good to see that Henry is at least staying consistent--on that point--and not simply revising his expectations everytime the market rallies to make stocks appear to always be a good value.
First of all the Democratic party of the 1950's had more in common with the Republican party of today than the current Democratic party. For a long time the Blue dog Democrats were a big chunk of the Democratic party who chose to stay Democrats for the seniority and to be part of the majority. So I think the comparisons just based on party label is wrong.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/20/2009 - 11:46 am
Well, luckily this has an easy solution: just sour the milk. If leverage become both expensive and volatile, this problem will solve itself.
Why do you think we are pouring trillions into the coffers of banksters with which they play the ponies, rake the profits and skate on the losses? Credit and house appreciation has fostered a very profitable illusion about risk and two generations that basically have only known boom times. They are trying to hold up the universal Con game; the boiler-shops disguised as banks are just a means to an end.
Just curious. I don't really know. Do you think the "British capitalist regime" is where we are now?
The moment China can call up Obama/Palin and say "You invade Iran and we'll destroy the greenback" is the moment that the USA will lose their empire status and become second.
Much like what happened when the USA took over that position from Britain.
I like that term Peak Oil, Peak Gold and now Peak Stupidity.
The problem is Chrysler is basically dead, it's been dead for a while, bad management and poor products a wicked combination. It's recovery 'plan' with Fiat is laughably silly. The whole sham is just to keep a few union bods employed until it eventually stops breathing.
However do I expect this administration will pump a few billion more into it to keep the corpse going until after the mid-terms. I have the sneaking suspicion that Fiat will simply funnel a lot of money away from Chrysler into projects that will ultimately benefit them when the eventual shutdown occurs.
~splat
homeGnome well he did do that,didnt he?
edit for ps
or one of the oil produceing countryies could have made the call or anyone of our numberous creditors.?
Credit and house appreciation has fostered a very profitable illusion about risk and two generations that basically have only known boom times.
Agreed. And there won't be a third generation. For the first 6 years of his marriage my grandfather did not have a savings account: every penny of his meagre earnings went to supporting his family. My father didn't start saving for retirement until he was in his 40's. I was able to make enough money while attending university to cover my costs and begin saving for a home and retirement. I have a feeling my son will not have any use for a savings account for the first few years of adulthood.
The commodities acquisitions by China were obvious during the entirety of the Monkey's Administration. Again, the Nightwatchman managerial theory of gov't was controlling. China needs food security. They bought it all around the world. My significant other is a senior in the US food growing biz, so I was sensitive to the news. When they made deals w/Argentina for wheat, huge deals, the flag went up. Our politics is so idiot savant, and so inappropriate for this time, the youth of capitalistic China. We missed the chance to buy China. Now, we're into a different game, and we've lost a lot of our economic chips, and are watching our markets shift away from us, plus the brain concentration shift, too. So, gotta luv the anti-dollar.
Listened to Poe's Haunted last night, first time in a while. Like that album, and found the lyrics to Terrible Thought eerily apt in describing the current walk away phenomenon. Thought I would share:
To the extent that TV reflects the popular culture I think two episodes on "the Practicce" (ABC) are IMO really telling.
One episode involved a dwarf couple (or whatever is the PC term) deciding that they wanted to test their embryo to make sure that it too would be a dwarf because the wanted a child that was "just like them". The second was about delivering a baby six weeks early so the father who was terminally ill would get to "hold the baby" .
I can think of no better example of "this is all about me" than these being credibly presented in Prime Time on ABC. Against this back drop is it any surprise that we have instituted a series of economic policies that can best be described as "this is all about me".
Is it even LEGAL for ICE to just cancel trades it considers "improbable"?
For precision, it was the movement in the market that was improbable, not any trade.
Anyone who tried to cancel a nice profitable Goldman trade better be awfully sure they're on solid legal ground, and not mind having their career mysteriously careen to a standstill.
edit: looks like I was wrong, ICE has canceled the trades in DXY during the spike. Wonder what effect that has on derivatives set to trigger on DXY... guess the lawyers will have to sort it all out.
Just curious. I don't really know. Do you think the "British capitalist regime" is where we are now?
I think it's the closest parallel. Expected ROIs were greater than could typically be obtained from non-financial business ventures; profits from other industries were being invested in banking and insurance (I'm mostly familiar with the latter) instead of being reinvested back into manufacturing etc., much as we've seen in the last couple of decades from the likes of GE and GM (and countless others). I don't know enough about the rest of the UK experience to know if they were seeing activity similar to our asset bubbles, but the problems at Lloyds at the beginning of GD1 seem to me to be parallel to the IB collapses now--in essence a mass Ponzi scheme gone bad, one that had become necessary because there was no longer any place else for centuries of accumulated profits to go (at least without a complete restructuring of the world economy, which GD1 and WW2 provided).
IMO, what just happened in the USD is well within the range of normal. Look at the trading ranges for the past month... tiny. The "confidence" that the floor and ceiling are known, the overwhelming positioning against the USD. They're sweet spots for savvy traders. Bulling the market is totally normal for the big players. Once the stops run, the price movement today is 100% typical of that type of move. I've studied chart patterns til the cows came home. This is normal trading behavior. Just because so many got wiped out so quickly means nothing. Congrats to the players who saw it and started it going. I'd like to see where they exited.
That got me to looking at year over year changes in consumption...industry is down a bit, but very similar to other times in recent years (since 2002 due to data series limitations)...total natural gas consumption as well, though for August we saw a year over year increase in total gas consumption - the reason we're stuffed to the gills is that production continued to increase into the teeth of declining prices and consumption...
The movie that best defines the "boom" times to me is "Confessions of a Shopholic." That is going to be a classic.
There was a commercial on television--Winners, I think--that had a woman walking out of the store discussing all of the deals she got on clothes, with the tag "With all the money I saved, it's like I MADE money today".
The thought that there might be people who confused decreasing discretionary spending with actually making money made my wife seethe. It became a bit of a running joke between the two of us, whenever we caught ourselves or someone else going on and on about the savings they realized by spending less at the store.
A London-based official at ICE said that the exchange is cancelling trades on dollar index futures above 76.50, after a spike in the contact that saw it jump to 82.18. The official said they are still investigating the cause for the move. Recent trades showed the contract up 0.7% to 75.89.
Thanks. I am going to reread "The Dark Valley: A Panorama of the 1930s." I am beginning to think that much of what is happening today is just the final act in the play that began with Act 1: 1912, Europe
A London-based official at ICE said that the exchange is cancelling trades on dollar index futures above 76.50, after a spike in the contact that saw it jump to 82.18. The official said they are still investigating the cause for the move.
Wow, to cancel the trades before the investigation as to the cause is even done is impressive -- someone must've gotten really burned.
DC Rogers, we sure see the world differently. My own work was in the area of chart patterns, without volume, without stochastics, with nuthing but the relationship of price movements as patterns. I chose the very large market, the djia and the s&p, and I looked at extreme movements, percentage of move as compared to the prior position, studying everything, focusing on moves of greater than 1 1/2%.
I concluded, there's no need for a reason; the chart patterns show higher probability outcomes, individually, and compared to prior moves within different time frames.
Running the stops occurs all the time. There are moves of 2% in each direction in a day. Predicting the climate for them to occur is relatively easy as these tight trading ranges invite these huge hiccups.
You have identified a reason. I believe the reason is unpredictable, but the chart setup has probable consequences. It is happening now in the S&P, too. This won't just mildly roll over. It holds a reasonable probability that it will snap and drop like a trap door. But I'm not doing this for a living. I'm playing hooky from school, aka work. Outta here.
This is why the economy remains so unstable. Sound loans are not being made because the money is being sucked up by wacky loans guaranteed by the government. This is going beyond crowding out the private sector, it is suffocating of the private sector, while Congressmen, like Frank, buying off a few more votes.
Greenwood County, S.C. (WLTX) -- A Greenwood County man who suffered a knee injury last spring sat in a recliner for eight months. He didn't budge; not even to go to the bathroom. Now he's dead and his wife said he refused treatment in an effort to go to Heaven.
Greenwood deputies say 33-year-old Danny Webb weighed about 800 pounds when they found him Wednesday. Rescue crews say he was stuck in the chair and they had to use a saw to take the recliner apart.
Deputies say Webb had sores on his body and a "very bad odor." He died shortly after they freed him from the chair.
Webb's wife, Ada, says he didn't want help because he was ready to go to heaven and see Jesus.
Just one look at the NASDAQ and you can see a clear broadening top coming off the peak. I haven't heard many commentators saying much about this, if anything at all. Better put on your seat belts people.
It became a bit of a running joke between the two of us, whenever we caught ourselves or someone else going on and on about the savings they realized by spending less at the store.
Think of how much the FHA borrowers have saved by buying property at 30% off...
Webb's wife, Ada, was overheard saying "I am so glad Jeebus took him. I think 200lbs of what they pulled out of that chair was from all the dumps he took. Thank glod he quit wanting to have sexual intercourse." When she realized she was being recorded by WTFJ TV 66 she screamed "So what! I deserve love too!" The deputies then pried her out of her recliner so she could go to the refrigerator for more beer.
Ron Paul is the man.....we need this guy in the Oval office!.,...wake up America and shut the TV off.
Personally, I think some of his assessments are spot-on and others are batshiat insane. He's the Republican's version of Dennis Kucinich... necessary for Democracy, but only tolerable in small doses.
Ron Paul has his good points on the economy, but he hangs with some pretty unsavory crowds. He's regularly ridiculed on right wing blogs for his Stormfront and truther fans.
Paul/Schiff ticket....Dont even get me started with Palin, she is being bread as one of them....made for TV presidents do not work, your witnessing that as we speak.
How much blame is there for the fact he was out of work and had to subsist on cheap high calorie junk food? And who goes near enough to feed that person? What do you do? Toss him Twinkies from the next room?
Another great quote from the end of another Poe song 'Control'...dialog between Father and Daughter:
Father: there has to be more to life than this, because in our
confrontation with a cold cold universe, there is something comical
to the idea that we can really impose our will on humanity-- power corrupts!
Daughter :
This is scaring me
Father and daughter 2:
Daughter : ...I live at the end of a 5 and 1/2 minute hallway
Father:
And at the end of it all lies of course the final
phenomenon of deterioration entropy, which is a predictable
disintegrations which the creative life ceases: everything has to fall apart.
Daughter:
Why are you always so serious?!
My take on God has always been, like the Devil, he is in the details. I stopped looking for a Zeus figure. Gave up on the Mitrhas/Odin/Zoraster trinity...and started looking at the world, as it is. Guess it is the Cherokee in me, but nature is my church for better or worse.
can you reference that with any specific "homophobic" statements or votes? I'd imagine that he finds sodomy laws ridiculous and has said so and is to the left of 99% of Texas Republicans on the issue.
In some ways the comedy value is priceless. On one hand, we had dullards extraordinaire running the show in theory, during the Section 8 Years, and now we have the ubermensa running around like so many chickens with their heads cut off...
RD: No, at worst you void the warranty [EULA] on your Snow Leopard OS.
There, I fixed it for you.
Which is of course, illegal, and steals income from the company that produced the code which was sold to you (or did you rip off the store too?) under the condition that you run it on their machines.
a better grasp of the dollar, feds and monetary policy.
Paul may be the best of this generation, but I'm still partial to Andrew Jackson on the all-time list, a guy who knew that omelettes were made out of eggs.
he's riding R Pauls wings...in fact I wouldn't doubt if they have a pact...Paul here's all the wingnut talk and says my dear good boy Grayson maybe you should take the torch and I'll feed you the monetary facts to spew.....go get em tiger....
RD: No, at worst you void the warranty [EULA] on your Snow Leopard OS.
There, I fixed it for you.
Which is of course, illegal, and steals income from the company that produced the code which was sold to you (or did you rip off the store too?) under the condition that you run it on their machines.
But apparently you're above all that.
Take all the cheap personal shots you want. Does nothing to advance the argument and only serves to erode your ability to advance a cogent point. Violating the EULA merely means the other side (Apple) isn't obligated to hold up their end. Retail netbook. Retail Snow Leopard. No more illegal than using the disc as a beer coaster, another thing it was not intended to do.
Personally, I think some of his assessments are spot-on and others are batshiat insane. He's the Republican's version of Dennis Kucinich... necessary for Democracy, but only tolerable in small doses.
I think that is spot on - but the impression I get is that he at least walks the walk- e.g. didn't take any kind of financial aid from the government to put his kids through college.
Series high in CA. BULLISH for $1MM house price increases!
Must. . .beat. . .Michigan!!
South Carolina is 5th!
We are always under achievers here!
Ugly ugly ugly.
so UE didn't increase in 21 states!
turning that frown upside down.
CR,
Do we have state-by-state U6 numbers?
USA! USA! USA!
I feel better and reassured now.
Looks like the unemployed should all head to Nebraska or the Dakotas.
The hoi unenempolloied get payments to fill the void, but once the checks stop aren't they pretty much destroyed if future work is not deployed?
Small wonder West Virginians say it's not too bad. They've seen far worse.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
playa JD busts a rhyme!
I'm sticking with my prediction that CA unemployment peaks between 14 and 15%, and it won't be below 9% until 2012.
The cure for this continued high unemployment is more bank bailouts and FIRE executive bonuses. You heard it here.
Well you know what they say, It's always darkest before it's completely black.
georgias was 10.2%
The cure for high unemployment is protectionism--we still have consumers, not enough homemade "stuff."
"Looks like the unemployed should all head to Nebraska or the Dakotas."
Pay is great since the new minimum wage!
Our DoomDome is nearly complete, and we'll soon be able to spy on our neighbors, the next galaxy over.
some investor guy wrote:
Optimist.
Compare the size in population of the ten highest UE states with ten lowest in population. We just need to empty the highest states of people and things will be just fine.
tj and the bear
tried to google u6 ga didnt work got weird stuff cant find right question to ask
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Only if they want telemarketing jobs
Jobless recovery becomes recovery-less mountain of lies and debt.
Somebody give me a tranquilizer....I just can't stand the almost tantric level of anxiety.
This slow motion trainwreck is stretching out longer than I'd thought.
OT: Pandemic Flu. This will solve the unemployment problem. Quoted from Recombinomics | Elegant Evolution today, and happening right now in Norway... (Remember, D225G. That's the killer. It's undiagnosable in the nose swabs. So, watch the way people are dying and their age range. And note it's moving west, now in Poland, north into Norway, and east into Eastern Ukraine. It will soon enough be at a social gathering near you and me. Best news so far, Tamiflu works. This is one nasty bug that deserves wide berth and close watching)
D225G in Fatal H1N1 Cases in Norway?
Recombinomics Commentary 14:05
November 20, 2009
Laboratory tests from 70 patients are examined, of which eight patients have died. Total is the mutation found in five of the patients. Two of them are dead, while the other three have been hospitalized with serious illness in intensive care units.
The new mutated virus thrives further down the respiratory system than the original. It shuts down the lungs of patients, which means more severe disease than the original virus, which first affects the throat and upper respiratory tract.
Since the new virus in the lungs and is only detected in patients who have been admitted to hospital, experts expect that it is less contagious than has affected most who are infected so far.
Both the vaccine and Tamiflu as a treatment will work also for this variant of the virus, "says director Geir Stene-Larsen at the NIPH.
Niman: The above translation suggests that D225G has been found in the lungs of dead and dying patients in Norway
Just think 12=18 months ago, many said this situation was impossible.
Contained my tutty!
some investor guy - you got my vote on you nums
this might be interesting from atl fed
EconSouth, Vol. 11, No. 1, REIN
scroll down to ue
OT,
In previous thread -
homedad43 wrote:
"JAMES GALBRAITH: It is a corporate republic.
BILL MOYERS: Which means that the purpose of government is to divert funds from the public sector to the private sector?
JAMES GALBRAITH: I think it's very clear. They also turned over the regulatory apparatus to the regulated industries. They turned over the henhouse to the foxes in every single case. And that is the source of the decline in, the abandonment of environmental responsibility, the source of the collapse of consumer protection, and the source of the collapse of the financial system, all trace back to a common root, which is the failure to maintain a public sector that works in the public interest, that provides discipline and standards, a framework within which the private sector can operate and compete. That's been abandoned."
Bill Moyers Journal . Transcripts | PBS
jd
i hate to tell but they are coming,seems like they bought some mbs and dont think they are happy
Due to lack of interest, the WH has chosen to sweep Q4 '09 reports under the rug. Cheer leader tryouts for 2010 will be held on the south lawn.
anyone know what year the gov started using "jobless recover"?
dum luk wrote:
Spell that R E P U B L I C A N? The night watchmen with the mantra, "Drill, Drill, Drill."
I looked really, really hard at Table E and I couldn't find any green shoots, nor any "saved or created jobs."
All of the numbers have a "-" sign in front - what's up with that?
anyone know if UE actually rose .4%, or if it was just (mostly) more people moving from 'given up' to 'looking'? cause I can see the move happening as people realized they will need money for christmas (or they knew theres seasonal hirings and they have a chance at a job)
anybody working main street could have told you this was happening.
Unfortunately, the media and their guests are all clueless high flyers and only see main street from behind tinted windows on their way to the country club.
1978 (don't know but thats my guess)
Perhaps you folks know something. There aren't any unemployed MBAs or business majors I'd be competing against for an entry level supply chain management position at a Fortune 500, are there? Something tells me I won't get a call back, but heh, I have to do something to get my 2 apps out a week.
gabyjan - interesting chart from the Fed...so, current conditions are almost three times as bad as '91 and 2001
threetorches wrote:
They were all in non-existent congressional districts-
How does one vote for a Mish world, leave it up to private capitalists to work it all out? The Bush Administration just did that, Depty Secty of Agriculture...ex head of the Cattlemen's Assn, Chris Cox at the SEC never saw a governmental program he liked. It was a Ronald Reagan dream for 8 years. The country is bankrupt and dead.
All Mass delegation voted against the Audit the FED bill, including Senator Wannabe Capuano. This state is so crooked it makes Gotti look like an angel.
Capuano is a shill beyond a shill a vote for this guy is another leg down in Massachusetts that is for dam sure.
dum luk wrote:
but but but we elected a Democratic President and Congress- must be better right?
the source of the collapse of consumer protection
This resonates....a friend in CO had real issues with a regulated company (insurance) and the state Consumer Advocate told my friend to speak to an assocaition that collectively is a lobby group for insurance companies - friggen wierd if you ask me.
badger wrote:
Nah, you should be good. They're all working at Wendy's.
Jobless recovery - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
What are the people of Mass going to do about it? Are they going to hurl harsh words in the direction of their representatives, eh? I think we have seen how effective harsh words are.
When does Obama declare "Mission Accomplished" ??
$15TT DEBT & 15% UE ?
Stellar, I could have been a contenda, I coulda been a somebody.
barley
no barley how can they be when we are in A recovery?
that is a snide remark aimed at the fed and us gov.
I doubt it, massholes like their slavery in tact.
Interesting... our society/government tried to force/incentivize us into becoming a nation of gamblers, and succeeded brilliantly. We were even dumb enough to gamble on shelter. So, unemployment just becomes a newer type of gambling! Why are folks upset? I thought we loved risk, and nothing is more risky and fun than knowing whether or not you will have a job tomorrow, or be able to get a new one, except perhaps Russian roulette. Go gambler nation!!
Slumdog wrote:
[failure to maintain a public sector that works in the public interest, that provides discipline and standards, a framework within which the private sector can operate and compete. That's been abandoned.]
Since 1945:
Reps have had both houses and the white house for 4 years.
Dems 19.
Since 1945:
Reps have controlled the congress for 12 years.
Dems 43.
Plenty of blame to go around.
"Jobless recovery becomes recovery-less mountain of lies and debt."
Yeah I was thinking the same thing after reading the economists' forecasts for house prices in the last post, A Few House Price Forecasts
If they all think housing has another leg down coming, and we know that much/most of the earnings from the FIRE sector are related to housing prices, how can anyone be expecting a sustained recovery??
Even the
's chief economist is calling for more deterioration.
1+1=2, no?
crazyv wrote:
Nope. Bi-partisan Ownership Class. I used to have
but now I'm a true believer in the fact that both parties are thoroughly rotten at the top.
dafox wrote:
actually the number of people in the work force was barely changed - although I suppose that does support part of your contention since in previous months the number had been declining. However, the jump in unemployment was entirely due to fewer people having jobs. In fact that survey had the job losses in October over a million compared with the payroll report of just 190,000 (190,000 has now become "just')
only in the real economy, squid are on track for a record breaking earnings and bonus year. Problem is, squid are greedy and have an exclusive squid nation, only squid can participate. If you don't have the genes of a squid...you lose. Too bad most of us have vertebrae and a frontal lobe.
Two wings attached to the same bird of prey (the Eagle, of course)
perhaps I should have put a snark tag on?
slumdog
you're back, sorry country aint bankrupt (close to it maybe) and certainly not dead and isnt going to be.takes a long time for the country to die,ie roman empire, british empire, napoleonic empire(maybe that was a little bit faster). as for the rest of your comment bush is gone)he left us a lot) but it is this regime that counts
"takes a long time for the country to die,ie ..."
3rd "Roman" Empire?
nanoo
might as well beat them with wet noodles
Whoops: Stocks Now 20%+ Overvalued
Stocks Are Overvalued
Sorry, I'm still thinking about nat.gas and the historic supply demonstrated yesterday. To me this says industry isn't working in a major way despite the rosy numbers coming out of gov on mfg gains. Then again, I could be all wet. If however my logic is correct, it also points to an erosion in employment in that sector.
"So here’s the real tragedy of the botched bailout: Government officials,* perhaps influenced by spending too much time with bankers, *forgot that if you want to govern effectively you have retain the trust of the people. And by treating the financial industry — which got us into this mess in the first place — with kid gloves, they have squandered that trust." PK, NYT
Govt.
of the
by the
for the
K'man is being polite!
gabyjan: I have vivid dreams about what I would like to do with my particular expertise that doesn't include wet noodles.
Nate TG - I think the rate at which a society deteriotes has accellerated over time
Ottoman centuries
Roman Empire decades
England years
US ?
Overlay that unemployment chart with this one for property taxes
New Yorkers Pay Highest Property Taxes - Developments - WSJ
and throw in delinquencies by state and you'd have quite the Picasso.
It is a little confusing right now. Oil is high, as is gas, but nat gas is low. Oil and gasoline aren't in particularly high demand. Of course, someone will argue this is due to dollar devaluation, but then nat gas should be through the roof.
I don't know about the rest of the country but in Vermont we have actually had above average temperatures - If that is true across much of the NE then that could account for the softness in gas demand.
Would love to hear the thoughts of any real estate/bankruptcy attorneys on the legal issues raised in this article: Commercial Real Estate Will Collapse - Forbes.com
SNAFU wrote:
I think he's finally getting it. Now we just have to rid him of the idea that an additional stimulus package is in the best interest of the American economy.
The damage done during the Monkey's Admin (TM on the Monkey) was nearly total. Religious Right had its day, and if Armageddon came sooner, it would be just that much closer to Rapture. There's not a person here who did not watch the "nightwatchman" political philosophy bubble up. No civil service worker ever challenges leadership. They thrive on anticipating what their political bosses want (I do biz w/one of the Federal sub entities and the moment Obama was seen as front runner, the philosophy I was told was the more appropriate changed.) The Madoff scandal is a reasonable example. The Atlanta HLBank purchase of Countrywide billions of worthless debt when TanMan was in charge was another.
It's not unexpected. If the leadership is in favor of small government, the outcome is a cessation of proactive protective supervision or review. The Nightwatchman concept is straight from the Republican think tanks. It's not my concept; it's the consequence of the application of theirs. The Corporate Republic ruled. The citizens of the world got screwed.
To say the fault lies in the current admin is crazy talk. The legacy left by Bush was bankruptcy. Any effort to save the state, the Bernanke approach, is now in full swing. The alternative is individual and nation state default. Game reset. What do you think those in power should do? Hand over the Navy and AirForce to the creditors and say, "Duh, we're broke"?
shill wrote:
Have you noticed that the Italian Mafia never made any headway here in MA, unlike RI and NY. I think you may have stumbled on the reason why-
Byzantine_Ruins wrote:
The solution, of course, is to fire the logisticians. Then we can do whatever we want.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
They'll (actually we'll) keep on electing these clowns. If you'll recall, Gary Studds continued to be sent back to Congress long after his affair with a male page became known-
Slumdog wrote:
In the world Mish speaks of, GS would have gone bankrupt in 2008, CitiG would no longer exist, WaMu shareholders would have been wiped out along with Countrywide, Bear, AIG, Deutsche Bank, UBS, SocGen, and RBS.
If the connected players are protected from the consequences of bad decision-making or poor planning, and are then "bailed out" to the tune of trillions of dollars, you do not have "unregulated free market capitalism." That is NOT CAPITALISM.
Rage all you want, but Ayn Rand and the capitalists are not to blame for our current situation, and neither is Reagan, whose "de-regulated world" bears very little resemblance to the naked aggression and thievery we have been subjected to - the authoritarian, top-down Mafia that has seized control like to QUOTE Rand and her ilk, but you need to start watching what they DO, not what they SAY.
I mean, if the Tolkien fan next door runs over your mailbox, it wouldn't be fair to blame his actions on the author, right? Or to presume that the author was somehow pro-vandalism because one of his readers damaged your property. So just because the powers-that-be professed allegieance to free-market capitalism does not establish that free-market capitalism itself is to blame for our situation.
Or another example, the game of Yahtzee does not "suck" because your big brother cheated by using loaded dice! It just turns out that what you were engaged in was not a game of Yahtzee ... it was cheating, plain and simple.
Per KD's site
Rep. Alan Grayson Passes Bill to Audit the Fed
YouTube - Rep. Alan Grayson Passes Bill to Audit the Fed
Barley wrote:
Barley- Unless by Roman you mean Byzantium the Roman's preceded the Ottamans and they and the Romans took centuries to decline, the British although they had a vast overseas empire they never reached the kind dominance that the Roman's had. In fact considering that they had to be bailed out by the US twice one can argue whether in fact they were dominant at all. So I think if we are looking at the decline of the US empire my guess is that a significant fraction of a century is still the time table.
Yeah crazyv, I'd agree with you there (I hail from VT too-rain sucks this time of year). But industry is the largest user of natgas if I got my stats right (and its way possible I didn't). This means heavy industry like steel production and other energy intensive operations. Its something to research further. I'm pressed for time today, so....thats for another day.
PS: I checked my weather data, plowable snow didn't occur until the first of Dec. last year. I always get anxious for snow pack to start developing, I hate snow drought years.
Slumdog wrote:
jubilee
noob goldberg (profile) wrote on Fri, 11/20/2009 - 10:56 am
The solution, of course, is to fire the logisticians. Then we can do whatever we want.
Never underestimate the power of money to reinforce magical thinking even in the brightest of minds.
noob goldberg wrote:
Napoleon tried that one winter
OT-
Is today an OpEx Friday? I can never tell-
California still proves a trend setter. If Caslifornia is experiencing series record unemployment you can expect other States to follow suit.
In a statistical observation look at MA-CT-RI. 9%-9%-13%. This is a contigious sociopoliticoeconomic region. Tells you about the flexibility in reporting not actual conditions. Use care comparing numbers across borders.
threetorches wrote:
You're kidding, right? Absolute greed at the expense of everyone else is the logical conclusion to this worldview. I'm so glad I got through my Ayn Rand phase (and left it) in college.
"and throw in delinquencies by state and you'd have quite the Picasso"
and throw in delinquencies by state, municipalites and you'd have Bacon
fixed it for ya Mike
Francis Bacon (painter) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
And this comes to mind:
http://elitechoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/francis-bacon.jpg
threetorches wrote:
These events occurring is still a necessary precondition to entering a sustainable recovery. Lacking this, moral hazard will continue to rot the entire economic apparatus.
A fresh coat of paint on a sunny spring day doesn't make a nice house any more attractive when it has an uncontrolled termite problem.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Cashlessfornia?
nanoo
what i meant was beating them with wet noodle does about of much good as telling how we feel about what they are allowing to happen.
i want to recall everyone that got into this scheme,put a placade on their forehead that they did not represent us and were not wanted anyone, any money over their salary would be confiscatedand blah blah
Rand is useful for coming to terms with the edge conditions of socialist thinking and what it results in when applied to the "real" world.
Cashlessfornia
+2
Second that Spunkmeyer.
UPDATE 4-One in 7 U.S. mortgages foreclosing or delinquent
UPDATE 4-One in 7 U.S. mortgages foreclosing or delinquent
| Reuters
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
The solution, then, is to shrink the pool of money.
UPDATE 4-One in 7 U.S. mortgages foreclosing or delinquent
Yup we have termites!
volker the viking wrote:
Fat fingered Hackintosh netbook typing on my part but you "Cashlessfornia" classic. VtV FTW! +1
The whole thread of that article sounds like
"we love the free market when it is working and mark to market is of course the best method when we are making boat loads of money, when markets are going up government should try and stop that - that would be socialism. But when we start losing money and prices are falling mark to market is terrible and the government should lend us money and stop us from selling in order to avoid further declines in prices not to do so will cause socialism because it will require the government to take over banks"
Rob Dawg wrote:
RI is a unique case. There is a lot of business like plating there that doesn't exist elsewhere in the US, and which has lately been moving to China where environmental regulations are far more relaxed or even non-existent. MA's numbers can also be skewed. A lot of folks from MA moved to NH, but have continued to work in MA while simultaneously skewing NH's voting more liberal. When they're laid off, they'll typically file in MA where the benefits are more generous, making MA numbers look worse and NH numbers look better. I'd suspect that this is the only reason that NH lagged the rest of the country in going into recession.
Your point is, however, well taken-
Rob Dawg wrote:
Was that you in DXY this morning too?
I hate to see all of the people forced to take my nom de blog, perhaps in debtference to me, no?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I don't have the statistics but within the industry category do they break out utilities who use nat gas for electricity generation. Also I would think that industry use would be fairly stable month on month so the consumer demand from weather probably has more impact on the month to month variation.
Cinco-X wrote:
Yep
Spunkmeyer wrote:
No; he's right, and you must be joking. The govt in this country, both state and federal has grown much faster than the rest of the country, and what they've been with this extra governmental capacity has been subverting the free market system. What did you think they were doing with all of that debt? Creating private sector jobs?
I think the data provided by CR, although CR is more optimistic than most of us doomsayers, points to exacerbation of the RRE market delinquencies and defaults as UE continues to erode. What will be the icing on that cake are the coming CRE losses hidden on balance sheets, some of which is already on FDIC balance sheet but not yet realized as the bill won't be due until next year. The whole joke of unemployment not being a threat to recovery and a lagging indicator is moot this time as this recession is centered upon core economic lynchpins, formerly safe and a shelter literally for sober and sane adults before the frenzy began. Its not going to end nice and wrapped up in a pretty package with a pretty bow everyone once to have.
slumdog
please re read what i said about the regrime. thats who has the buck now. not b43, c, b41, or r. we are in o
Barley wrote:
I would have guessed Jackson Pollock-
Cinco-X wrote:
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Yeah, but all of them will write 'Juvenal' because they don't know how to spell, instead of for its historical relevance.
The solution, then, is to shrink the pool of money.
I think so. The amount of speculative "capital" (inflation) that has been hoarded by a minority rather than equitably distributed is doing more harm than good. It's definitely not being put to productive use. Rather, it is bidding up the price of paper assets and being used to strip mine companies of pensions and other benefits all of which get dumped on the government. By preserving the value of fraudulent credit, Bernanke is not increasing employment or living standards. He is making people pay more for houses, energy, food, etc. Not good.
I think the vast majority would be far better served if we let the debt bubble deflate back to 2003 levels, if not further back.
noob goldberg wrote:
I would have gone with mold; breathing the air will make you sick-
Rob Dawg wrote:
All it tells me is that the Republicans are more efficient with their time to screw J6P. Democrats need more time to make up for their productivity problems. How are you reading it?
Quick
note: Some Shareholders Want Goldman to Cut Back on 2009 Bonuses - WSJ.com
"In response to criticism that Goldman should share more of its wealth with investors, company spokesman Lucas van Praag says shareholders "have historically been more focused on the absolute return on equity and on book value per share growth" than per-share earnings."
noob, 3 torches, I too anticipated the BK of all those noob listed. I looked forward then to the redistribution of wealth consequential to those failures, especially the purging of the long seated top players, Rockefellers, and especially the Mellons. I had so hoped for that as I'm from the other side of the tracks.
What happened after that fact that they were all illiquid is what books will be written about. The plutocracy, to protect their stores of wealth, to save themselves, manipulated the political structure. All the rest has been shadow puppetry.
While I was gung ho low priced PM's prior to that, it was in anticipation of the liquidation of the illiquidity, the emantization of the eschaton moment, when I knew in 05 the PM's would rise to unbelievable prices due to the same ole panic and fear that repeats in we humans.
I was spellczeched.
Thanks crazyv...that is helpful and you probably are right. I'm ready for snow, bring it already! So your handle is crazy-vermonter...didn't pick up on that before.
There are quite a few of us.
I am really, really, not going to have the Ayn Rand debate in these threads again. So for the last time:
The FIRE economy is the very antithesis of the productive-capacity economy Rand idolized.
Banksters like the kind we currently have in charge were viewed as parasites and leeches, indeed, as vampire squid in Rand's world.
In a naked capitalist, greed-rules, everyone looks out for his own welfare with no .gov backstops, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS TOO BIG TO FAIL.
THE TOO BIG TO FAIL DOCTRINE IS NOT RANDIAN ... IT IS DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED TO RANDIAN PHILOSOPHY.
Rand was never in favor of bailouts, destruction of the property of others, or the naked theft of your tax dollars to prop up a handful of national banks and insurance companies. This is exactly the kind of government backed extortion that her main characters, thin and cardboard though they may be, railed against and warned about.
You don't have to like Rand or her philosophy (nor am I really required to defend it), but authentic literary criticism and valid economic debate requires you to understand it and avoid mischaracterization - and based on some of your stated opinions, it appears that Rand may actually be an ally, not an enemy.
In other words: Readin' Atlas Shrugged (and Mish, for that matter) - yer doin' it rong.
Cino-X - its also BFF!
Here, hear.
shill wrote:
(What's a cyclically adjusted PE ratio? It's a measure that smooths out the effect of the business cycle on corporate profit margins, thus providing a more stable view of where stocks are trading relative to long-term corporate earnings power. If you use a single-year PE ratio at an extreme of the cycle, you'll get a misleading view of the market's value. At cycle lows, like now, stocks look artificially expensive. At cycle peaks, like 2007, they look artificially cheap. The cyclically adjusted PE smooths that all out.)
Stocks Back To Fair Value!
bearly wrote:
Thanks- I put it in my calendar, since I'm too old to remember it, especially when I only see it once a month-
rosethorn wrote:
Am I the only one who wants to take my only vacation of the year and try to attend the
shareholders' meeting (even buy 1 share just so I can get in) and sit there with a facehugger on? Maybe some faux squid on my neck and yell "Ack! Its got a juggular!" as I fall down with alka seltzer foaming out of my mouth just for the cathartic affect?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Any normal Vermonters out there?
OK, doomstead improvement day but I'll return later for BFF. Thanks everyone for the always interesting, thought provoking, great conversation. CR rocks.
I just placed a call to Rep. Lynch's (MA) office to voice my displeasure with his vote against the Audit the Fed bill. The kid that answered the phone had no idea what I was talking about so my guess is call volume is light.
Barley wrote:
In the event this was meant for me, I've already voted-
Cinco
Pollock would work - I get dizzy seeing his stuff
But Bacon: I get a pure gut wrentching sense of being completely disoriented and often scared:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_8_2FP4s2VHA/Sf33fSra_SI/AAAAAAAAAbM/ViM9x0xakwc/s400/francis+Bacon.jpg
normalcy rates are the same as CA.
threetorches wrote:
I don't and you have zero knowledge of my familiarity with it. We will obviously choose to live in parallel universes.
Angry Saver wrote:
I do not disagree, and fundamentally this is necessary. But good god would it ever be a spectacular show if all that leverage needed to unwind, and politicians are loathe to sit on their hands while it happens.
I was talking with an investment group during the past couple of days. It hit me, after their third question about capital structures and 'leveragability', that institutional investors are completely incapable of conceiving a business plan that does not involve cranking it up with high levels of leverage. Their entire world-view revolves around the idea that directly-invested capital, on it own, is an irresponsible action unless accompanied with large amounts of leverage.
We really need to purge the world of this concept. It's quite damaging.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Say hello to you brother Earl, and your other brother Earl.
Cinco-X wrote:
What's up with MA unemployement bennies? I heard/read that it pays a max of $900/week. Is this true?
I know a few Rands out there, perhaps their parents shrugged off giving them names like Dave & Mark?
stop...or the husband will have my hide for addiction to CR. I'll return and get you later. lol.
Market reminds me of the Garth Brooks song "The Dance." Annoying and on the verge of aggravating. Get on with the plunge if its coming!
Mike in Long Island wrote:
I don't think it's that high, but it has to be at least 70% higher than NH.
Good thing Obama is going to hold a jobs summit. Will he be as successful in twisting the arms of the large employers as he was in getting banks to make small business loans?
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The IntercontinentalExchange is probing trades in U.S. dollar index futures that briefly showed a massive 9% jump on Friday morning.
The lead contract surged as high as 82.18, up from a 75.38 close on Thursday. Such a move was improbable given that in spot markets, the dollar's moves against major currencies such as the euro were limited to about 1%.
ICE investigating spike in dollar index futures - MarketWatch
cool local trends website-Californication indeed...
California Home - Real Estate, Schools, Employment and Demographic Trends
$750 a week is max, I know several on the roll....but it being mAss I could be out of the loop
Barley wrote:
What about Hieronymous Bosch
Google Image Result for http://www.artinthepicture.com/artists/Hieronymus_Bosch/earthly_delights.jpeg
dum luk wrote:
If this is the worst recession since 1931, we should see similar long-term valuations. Which, looking at 1921, 1932, and 1981, would put it around 5-7. We haven't even gotten close yet.
And that means an awful lot of leverage to get rid of before we do.
Stox lost about 90% of their value top-to-bottom in GD1, but they didn't have fancy computers back then, with which to manipulate things...
3 torches, the concept of Rand must include somewhere that capitalism leads to a balance of greed, that there is no concentration of wealth. When it happens, those who have it rarely voluntarily let go. Bill Gates is a rarity. Mellon is more typical, Rockefeller Family w/ $28Billion is more typical. The patriarch is long dead. The power rules. Weirdly, it's like tribalism in Africa. If you're related, you're in on the goodies.
When this opportunity came about to cut out their golden hearts, I was so, so for it, and then TARP passed, supported then by literally all the press, except people commenting in the blogs, Mish, here, the usual suspects. That's when I saw the true nature of money power, unvarnished.
TARP was "it" for me. For me, there was BT and AT (before and after TARP). Now it's shadow theater. Gold thinks so. The USD will lose much of its buying power. The game has been decided.
Stox lost about 90% of their value top-to-bottom in GD1, but they didn't have fancy computers back then, with which to manipulate things...
Nor did they have pension funds with billions of dollars and a need to get 8% return either.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/20/2009 - 11:05 am
The solution, then, is to shrink the pool of money.
You got it. That's what would happen if we didn't have to monkey around so that some monkeys are benefited at the expense of other monkeys. The funny thing is that it will happen anyway, just in less direct and more fundamentally irrational ways.
HomeGnome wrote:
Our friends at Goldman just swept some money off the table due to some poorly-written contract language mentioning DXY, combined with a push of the Magic Manipulation Button that created the price spike so they could execute. The probe will find nothing 'illegal'.
'Improbable' means they just made A LOT of money.
Yes.
I am generally very bearish during this recession/depresssion. One thing I've been following lately is the Baltic Dry Index, which is up about 103% in the last 6 weeks, including 14 consecutive up days. This doesn't mesh with what I see and hear in most every other arena. What gives? Is this a
or a quick, short term run-up? Any thoughts?
3 torches, thx for that. We see things differently, as I will always be an on my knees bleeding heart, wailing with those who are suffering.. But when it comes to this plutocracy, corporate republic, I saw the raw power that arose out of fear, fear which was whipped up and stoked by those with the most to lose. In essence, at that moment, I quit.
I'm always defensive and this time, I'm watching as an outsider. This is not my country. I have no political power except my vote. But I do have the power to live well and extract a good living. That's what I'm up to now, besides acting towards those who are in need, apolitically.
shill wrote:
Didn't you get the MEMO ? It's a rebasing correction, nothing to worry about, just an opportunity to GET IN for the next big leg higher!!!.
I bet everyone still has a favorite ice cream flavor, even if you're lactose intolerant, there's gelato
ice cream is not going to disappear
slumdog, you just contradicted yourself.........sometimes, saying less is more........ I need to get to my chores.......
the amount of stops taken out by that dxy move today must add up into billions...amazing stuff happening everyday now it seems...
I used to think amazing was just an aerosmith song
YouTube - Aerosmith - Amazing
nova wrote:
GD1 was the end of the financialization of the British capitalist regime--you should look there, not to '30s US, for too much idle money chasing unsustainable returns.
nova wrote:
The thing about fancy risk management systems and high-speed real-time computer automation is that they're very similar to having a 2 wheel drive vs a 4WD truck. They're helpful in normal market conditions, but when it gets really muddy it just gets you in that much deeper before you're completely screwed.
In essence, at that moment, I quit.
slumdog,
Quiting while you are ahead is not the same as quiting.
HomeGnome wrote:
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/17/saupload_dollar1.png
The Weak Dollar Crowd Is Too Confident -- Seeking Alpha
I always believe in quoting while I'm ahead.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/20/2009 - 11:21 am
Their entire world-view revolves around the idea that directly-invested capital, on it own, is an irresponsible action unless accompanied with large amounts of leverage.
We really need to purge the world of this concept. It's quite damaging.
It's popular because it's easy. Creating value, innovation, and useful, unique products is hard, as is living like a rock-star on razor-thin transaction margins of a boring old-school bank or financial firm. Leverage is the sausage machine and risk is the part no one wants to see, they just want the finished product.
The executive class offshore anything they can lay their hands on.. and we wonder why unemployment is such a problem..
~splat
Unemployment Benefits Comparison by State | File Unemployment
mike in long island this is back in june of 09 but think benefits stay same
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I doubt there was $60+TT derivatives market without any capital, just credit entries in a ledger somewhere. This round of deleveraging is much worse and on top of an economy that is fundamentaly and structurally much less vibrant.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Well, luckily this has an easy solution: just sour the milk. If leverage become both expensive and volatile, this problem will solve itself.
dum luk wrote:
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/17/saupload_dollar1.png
Equally impressive is the rebound which blew through 1.5 dollars/euro, before settling back to normal. Stops blown away on both sides -- no auto stabilizers left in place -- betcha all the traders are sweating bullets knowing things could get out-of-hand in either direction now!
gabyjan wrote:
Thanks gabyjan - my memory isn't totally fried - MA does pay upwards of $900.
noob goldberg wrote:
Noob,
We are in basic agreement on that point. I was merely pointing out that the blog you referenced was using a "cyclically adjusted" pe - without saying so.
Chrysler could lose more than 100 U.S. dealerships - Yahoo! News
So they closed some dealerships that were profitable while keeping afloat dealerships that were not....
note to auto task force....you guys dont know what your doing....peak stupidity is worse than h1n virus....thier is no tamiflu cure.....
"Spell that R E P U B L I C A N?
Since 1945:
Reps have had both houses and the white house for 4 years.
Dems 19.
Since 1945:
Reps have controlled the congress for 12 years.
Dems 43." - RD
just goes to show how much damage can be done in such a short amount of time ~
Yalt,
GD1 was the end of the financialization of the British capitalist regime--you should look there, not to '30s US, for too much idle money chasing unsustainable returns.
Just curious. I don't really know. Do you think the "British capitalist regime" is where we are now?
I remember reading that it did not work out so well for them. This is prior WWII. They were still bleeding from WWI, at least government funding was. They were an exporter still of finished goods so I see where that had problems. Are you talking about the money sucked out of the colonies?
dum luk wrote:
You were responding to shill. But I take your point, and it's important. Plus it's good to see that Henry is at least staying consistent--on that point--and not simply revising his expectations everytime the market rallies to make stocks appear to always be a good value.
It looks like someone has learned his lesson.
yagij wrote:
First of all the Democratic party of the 1950's had more in common with the Republican party of today than the current Democratic party. For a long time the Blue dog Democrats were a big chunk of the Democratic party who chose to stay Democrats for the seniority and to be part of the majority. So I think the comparisons just based on party label is wrong.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/20/2009 - 11:46 am
Well, luckily this has an easy solution: just sour the milk. If leverage become both expensive and volatile, this problem will solve itself.
Why do you think we are pouring trillions into the coffers of banksters with which they play the ponies, rake the profits and skate on the losses? Credit and house appreciation has fostered a very profitable illusion about risk and two generations that basically have only known boom times. They are trying to hold up the universal Con game; the boiler-shops disguised as banks are just a means to an end.
good catch
- yes there are a lot of us though I think we are the sane ones.
what would a john Galt smiley look like?
splat here is a little of the companies that have abandoned us
CNN.com
called exporting america
nova wrote:
The moment China can call up Obama/Palin and say "You invade Iran and we'll destroy the greenback" is the moment that the USA will lose their empire status and become second.
Much like what happened when the USA took over that position from Britain.
Cinco-X wrote:
nope we are all by the rest of country's definition crazy
tncubsfan wrote:
I like that term
Peak Oil, Peak Gold and now Peak Stupidity.
The problem is Chrysler is basically dead, it's been dead for a while, bad management and poor products a wicked combination. It's recovery 'plan' with Fiat is laughably silly. The whole sham is just to keep a few union bods employed until it eventually stops breathing.
However do I expect this administration will pump a few billion more into it to keep the corpse going until after the mid-terms. I have the sneaking suspicion that Fiat will simply funnel a lot of money away from Chrysler into projects that will ultimately benefit them when the eventual shutdown occurs.
~splat
What if China called up the Chimp in 2001 and said go get us oil or we aren't loaning you any more money?
Maybe it is something in the granola?
just goes to show how much damage can be done in such a short amount of time ~
Exactly!
homeGnome
well he did do that,didnt he? 
edit for ps
or one of the oil produceing countryies could have made the call or anyone of our numberous creditors.?
Exactly!
Learn to "reply" properly.
Please.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Agreed. And there won't be a third generation. For the first 6 years of his marriage my grandfather did not have a savings account: every penny of his meagre earnings went to supporting his family. My father didn't start saving for retirement until he was in his 40's. I was able to make enough money while attending university to cover my costs and begin saving for a home and retirement. I have a feeling my son will not have any use for a savings account for the first few years of adulthood.
Terry,
The chart you posted from your link looks like it matches the rail and port traffic increases somewhat.*
The commodities acquisitions by China were obvious during the entirety of the Monkey's Administration. Again, the Nightwatchman managerial theory of gov't was controlling. China needs food security. They bought it all around the world. My significant other is a senior in the US food growing biz, so I was sensitive to the news. When they made deals w/Argentina for wheat, huge deals, the flag went up. Our politics is so idiot savant, and so inappropriate for this time, the youth of capitalistic China. We missed the chance to buy China. Now, we're into a different game, and we've lost a lot of our economic chips, and are watching our markets shift away from us, plus the brain concentration shift, too. So, gotta luv the anti-dollar.
Is it even LEGAL for ICE to just cancel trades it considers "improbable"?
Listened to Poe's Haunted last night, first time in a while. Like that album, and found the lyrics to Terrible Thought eerily apt in describing the current walk away phenomenon. Thought I would share:
Terrible Thought
fyi, you have to hit play in the upper right hand corner.
What we need to do is drill down to unleash the latent synergies in our economic go-forward space...
splat wrote:
To the extent that TV reflects the popular culture I think two episodes on "the Practicce" (ABC) are IMO really telling.
One episode involved a dwarf couple (or whatever is the PC term) deciding that they wanted to test their embryo to make sure that it too would be a dwarf because the wanted a child that was "just like them". The second was about delivering a baby six weeks early so the father who was terminally ill would get to "hold the baby" .
I can think of no better example of "this is all about me" than these being credibly presented in Prime Time on ABC. Against this back drop is it any surprise that we have instituted a series of economic policies that can best be described as "this is all about me".
Is it even LEGAL for ICE to just cancel trades it considers "improbable"?
Sure.
NYSE and NASDAQ can (and have) also done so in the past.
HomeGnome wrote:
We'd be more likely to enhance killer convergence if we strategise high-end functionalities-
HomeGnome wrote:
Yes. I suggest we start drilling in ANWR.
crazyv,
The movie that best defines the "boom" times to me is "Confessions of a Shopholic." That is going to be a classic.
10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression -- Seeking Alpha
HomeGnome wrote:
For precision, it was the movement in the market that was improbable, not any trade.
Anyone who tried to cancel a nice profitable Goldman trade better be awfully sure they're on solid legal ground, and not mind having their career mysteriously careen to a standstill.
edit: looks like I was wrong, ICE has canceled the trades in DXY during the spike. Wonder what effect that has on derivatives set to trigger on DXY... guess the lawyers will have to sort it all out.
nova wrote:
I think it's the closest parallel. Expected ROIs were greater than could typically be obtained from non-financial business ventures; profits from other industries were being invested in banking and insurance (I'm mostly familiar with the latter) instead of being reinvested back into manufacturing etc., much as we've seen in the last couple of decades from the likes of GE and GM (and countless others). I don't know enough about the rest of the UK experience to know if they were seeing activity similar to our asset bubbles, but the problems at Lloyds at the beginning of GD1 seem to me to be parallel to the IB collapses now--in essence a mass Ponzi scheme gone bad, one that had become necessary because there was no longer any place else for centuries of accumulated profits to go (at least without a complete restructuring of the world economy, which GD1 and WW2 provided).
So who spiked the dollar on ICE and why?
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/20/2009 - 12:00 pm
Agreed. And there won't be a third generation.
Thank Glod for that. The Culture of Narcissism may finally have a chance to break the mirror and realize there is a world out there
Vonbek777 wrote:
MySpace Player
Poe - Terrible Thought lyrics
IMO, what just happened in the USD is well within the range of normal. Look at the trading ranges for the past month... tiny. The "confidence" that the floor and ceiling are known, the overwhelming positioning against the USD. They're sweet spots for savvy traders. Bulling the market is totally normal for the big players. Once the stops run, the price movement today is 100% typical of that type of move. I've studied chart patterns til the cows came home. This is normal trading behavior. Just because so many got wiped out so quickly means nothing. Congrats to the players who saw it and started it going. I'd like to see where they exited.
That got me to looking at year over year changes in consumption...industry is down a bit, but very similar to other times in recent years (since 2002 due to data series limitations)...total natural gas consumption as well, though for August we saw a year over year increase in total gas consumption - the reason we're stuffed to the gills is that production continued to increase into the teeth of declining prices and consumption...
Data set
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by End Use
But will they embrace that world and go forth and rebuild...that is the question.
HomeGnome wrote:
I have no idea, I was simply making an educated guess on who. The why is obvious -- to cash in derivatives that needed to trigger.
nova wrote:
There was a commercial on television--Winners, I think--that had a woman walking out of the store discussing all of the deals she got on clothes, with the tag "With all the money I saved, it's like I MADE money today".
The thought that there might be people who confused decreasing discretionary spending with actually making money made my wife seethe. It became a bit of a running joke between the two of us, whenever we caught ourselves or someone else going on and on about the savings they realized by spending less at the store.
homeGnome
i didnt do it i was watching and saw it.if i was on the right site seems interesting,to say the least.
Thanks dum luk, those links are just what I needed.
Yalt wrote:
Fund management: Payback time | The Economist
ICE Cancels Dollar Spike
File under: Very Curious Event
A London-based official at ICE said that the exchange is cancelling trades on dollar index futures above 76.50, after a spike in the contact that saw it jump to 82.18. The official said they are still investigating the cause for the move. Recent trades showed the contract up 0.7% to 75.89.
https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml
Yalt,
Thanks. I am going to reread "The Dark Valley: A Panorama of the 1930s." I am beginning to think that much of what is happening today is just the final act in the play that began with Act 1: 1912, Europe
threetorches wrote:
Thank the gods.
When do you all reckon the point is reached where hunger overpowers the need to goof off on the internet all day?, for the hoi unempolloied
shill wrote:
Wow, to cancel the trades before the investigation as to the cause is even done is impressive -- someone must've gotten really burned.
JD - Not until you can't get food.
I have met very few fat junkies.
It's going to be soon; my stomach is growling.
Wait, I have a job.
Damn.
DC Rogers, we sure see the world differently. My own work was in the area of chart patterns, without volume, without stochastics, with nuthing but the relationship of price movements as patterns. I chose the very large market, the djia and the s&p, and I looked at extreme movements, percentage of move as compared to the prior position, studying everything, focusing on moves of greater than 1 1/2%.
I concluded, there's no need for a reason; the chart patterns show higher probability outcomes, individually, and compared to prior moves within different time frames.
Running the stops occurs all the time. There are moves of 2% in each direction in a day. Predicting the climate for them to occur is relatively easy as these tight trading ranges invite these huge hiccups.
You have identified a reason. I believe the reason is unpredictable, but the chart setup has probable consequences. It is happening now in the S&P, too. This won't just mildly roll over. It holds a reasonable probability that it will snap and drop like a trap door. But I'm not doing this for a living. I'm playing hooky from school, aka work. Outta here.
With F.H.A. Help, Easy Loans in Expensive Areas
BACK TO BUSINESS; Easy Loans in Expensive Areas - NY Times
This is why the economy remains so unstable. Sound loans are not being made because the money is being sucked up by wacky loans guaranteed by the government. This is going beyond crowding out the private sector, it is suffocating of the private sector, while Congressmen, like Frank, buying off a few more votes.
Totally OT Alert!!!
Greenwood County, S.C. (WLTX) -- A Greenwood County man who suffered a knee injury last spring sat in a recliner for eight months. He didn't budge; not even to go to the bathroom. Now he's dead and his wife said he refused treatment in an effort to go to Heaven.
Greenwood deputies say 33-year-old Danny Webb weighed about 800 pounds when they found him Wednesday. Rescue crews say he was stuck in the chair and they had to use a saw to take the recliner apart.
Deputies say Webb had sores on his body and a "very bad odor." He died shortly after they freed him from the chair.
Webb's wife, Ada, says he didn't want help because he was ready to go to heaven and see Jesus.
---WTF!?!
noob,
Your commercial fits with equity being considered money in the bank.
Hell of a spike in
Just one look at the NASDAQ and you can see a clear broadening top coming off the peak. I haven't heard many commentators saying much about this, if anything at all. Better put on your seat belts people.
noob goldberg wrote:
Think of how much the FHA borrowers have saved by buying property at 30% off...
nova wrote:
What, asset value appreciation isn't really making money? Damn...
Eight months? Guess he was committed to the idea.
800 pound gorilla-human, same-same.
HomeGnome wrote:
---WTF!?!
Ah, yes. Nothing to worry about. You may not understand the reasons, but you can rest assured that God is in control. /snark
Rob Dawg wrote:
?worth the effort?
Blackhalo wrote:
Spending $300K on a home instead of $400K isn't the same as making $100K. It's still spending $300K.
thanks for the info- didn't realize that residential consumer demand was so low.
noob goldberg wrote:
Of Uncle Sam's money...
That brilliant flash of light in the distance will NOT be followed by hot, high winds.
CR says "No worries."
So some people will continue watching the movie. But some will put on the oxygen mask; and some will get into crash position.
Don't matter...We'll all be dead soon.
There is no God, Only Zuel!
justaskin wrote:
Absolutely no doubt. Solid, fast, inexpensive.
HomeGnome wrote:
I don't know which one is/was actually sicker. How could you possibly watch/enable your spouse to do this?
On your way to being nearly half a ton of human, at what point do you decide to really let yourself go?
He must have missed Forrest Gump..
running across country either would have killed him or he might have started some fitness fad and been the next billy blanks
I doubt if Jesus extended his hand being that they guy gave up and ate more food than 100 children in Sudan eat a year....
Oh make no mistake there is a God. And I hope to meet him someday, I have a piece of my absent mind to give him.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
evolution at work
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
When you can't get up to take a shit?
Don't underestimate the faithful.
The writing is on the wall, when you can't fit on the toilet seat.
If a customer wants a trade busted,and the trade price is too far out of line, the Chicago Merc has a policy for busting the trade.
That might not be writing on the wall, vonbek.
Webb's wife, Ada, was overheard saying "I am so glad Jeebus took him. I think 200lbs of what they pulled out of that chair was from all the dumps he took. Thank glod he quit wanting to have sexual intercourse." When she realized she was being recorded by WTFJ TV 66 she screamed "So what! I deserve love too!" The deputies then pried her out of her recliner so she could go to the refrigerator for more beer.
Blackhalo wrote:
It's true, and therefore rational.
[sigh]
Go Ron Paul!
Ron Paul is the man.....we need this guy in the Oval office!.,...wake up America and shut the TV off.
Vonbek777 wrote:
talk about a doughy pant load...... (grin)
shill wrote:
Are you watching him right now? Which channel?
Ron Paul?
Yeah, he will really inspire minorities to turn out and vote.
Driving west on the 15 a couples hours out of Pavlovegas, there is the tattered leftovers of a Ron Paul for prez sign, flapping in the wind....
A missed chance and apt metaphor for what has become of this country.
Expert Stock Market Timing Models used by Money Managers and Investors...
shill wrote:
Personally, I think some of his assessments are spot-on and others are batshiat insane. He's the Republican's version of Dennis Kucinich... necessary for Democracy, but only tolerable in small doses.
Paul / Buchanan 2012!
or would you prefer Palin / Schwartzenegger?
Root hog or die.
Ron Paul has his good points on the economy, but he hangs with some pretty unsavory crowds. He's regularly ridiculed on right wing blogs for his Stormfront and truther fans.
How about a
Paul/Schiff ticket....Dont even get me started with Palin, she is being bread as one of them....made for TV presidents do not work, your witnessing that as we speak.
justaskin: Hackintosh?
Rob Dawg:
Absolutely no doubt. Solid, fast, inexpensive.
Absolutely no doubt. Solid, fast, inexpensive, and illegal.
There, I fixed it for you.
HomeGnome wrote:
How much blame is there for the fact he was out of work and had to subsist on cheap high calorie junk food? And who goes near enough to feed that person? What do you do? Toss him Twinkies from the next room?
Palin/ Beck 2012!
Their campaign bus will be short and yellow.
"and others are batshiat insane."
yes, i didn't appreciate the vote he cast for foreign adventurism six years ago. very disappointing. but that's why i have barbara lee in the vp slot.
Another great quote from the end of another Poe song 'Control'...dialog between Father and Daughter:
Father: there has to be more to life than this, because in our
confrontation with a cold cold universe, there is something comical
to the idea that we can really impose our will on humanity-- power corrupts!
Daughter :
This is scaring me
Father and daughter 2:
Daughter : ...I live at the end of a 5 and 1/2 minute hallway
Father:
And at the end of it all lies of course the final
phenomenon of deterioration entropy, which is a predictable
disintegrations which the creative life ceases: everything has to fall apart.
Daughter:
Why are you always so serious?!
My take on God has always been, like the Devil, he is in the details. I stopped looking for a Zeus figure. Gave up on the Mitrhas/Odin/Zoraster trinity...and started looking at the world, as it is. Guess it is the Cherokee in me, but nature is my church for better or worse.
Ron Paul is the man
Ron Paul is a homophobic wingnut.
Eric wrote:
He's just distancing himself from his younger brother, Ru. Wouldn't you?
and Illegal.
---So was the American Revolution.
Just ask the King.
NervousRex wrote:
No, at worst you void the warranty [EULA] on your Snow Leopard OS.
There, I fixed it for you.
can you reference that with any specific "homophobic" statements or votes? I'd imagine that he finds sodomy laws ridiculous and has said so and is to the left of 99% of Texas Republicans on the issue.
---So was the American Revolution.
Just ask the King.
Nice try.
In some ways the comedy value is priceless. On one hand, we had dullards extraordinaire running the show in theory, during the Section 8 Years, and now we have the ubermensa running around like so many chickens with their heads cut off...
HomeGnome wrote:
+1 LOL!
As oppose to what ? A socialist Moonbat?...thanks I'll go with the Wingnut....you Moonbats have detroyed this country.
Damn hobbit lovers knocked over my mailbox again. Gotta go.
Eric- wingnut.....far from it...realist-definitely...
please provide someone with a better grasp of the dollar, feds and monetary policy......I dare ya....
Most COPS are petty tyrants.
are you, Rex?
You're not a
Homophobic wingnuttery is a tradition in Washington.
Almost all of our Presidents, Senators, and Congressfreaks throughout our history have been homophobic wingnuts.
At least he's not a sexist. Dr. Paul was an OB/GYN who practiced his love on women.
RD: No, at worst you void the warranty [EULA] on your Snow Leopard OS.
There, I fixed it for you.
Which is of course, illegal, and steals income from the company that produced the code which was sold to you (or did you rip off the store too?) under the condition that you run it on their machines.
But apparently you're above all that.
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 11/20/2009 - 10:43 am
* reply
* Ignore user
Most COPS are petty tyrants.
You're not a Pigged are you, Rex?
No HomeGnome,
Retired Software Engineer.
Best.
NR
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Paul may be the best of this generation, but I'm still partial to Andrew Jackson on the all-time list, a guy who knew that omelettes were made out of eggs.
I'd say Obama is more of a Corporate Fascist; like Bush.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Grayson.
Lplease provide someone with a better grasp of the dollar, feds and monetary policy......I dare ya....
A realist proposes things with a chance of passing.
A wingnut proposes things that make for good sound bites.
Kucinich had his act togeather on the economy as well..
Who does HU want to run his empire?
Re: hackintosh netbook
Careful -- Apple has you in the cross-hairs. No OS-X support for you!
Dennis.
http://roissy.files.wordpress.com/2007/04/dennis-kucinich-and-wife.jpg
he's riding R Pauls wings...in fact I wouldn't doubt if they have a pact...Paul here's all the wingnut talk and says my dear good boy Grayson maybe you should take the torch and I'll feed you the monetary facts to spew.....go get em tiger....
Thank you, Lovely Pig, for saving me from yet another thread devolved into politics.
NervousRex wrote:
Take all the cheap personal shots you want. Does nothing to advance the argument and only serves to erode your ability to advance a cogent point. Violating the EULA merely means the other side (Apple) isn't obligated to hold up their end. Retail netbook. Retail Snow Leopard. No more illegal than using the disc as a beer coaster, another thing it was not intended to do.
fiat dollars are a political entity, not an economic one
Eric, I see you couldnt come up with one...He hasnt changed his story to fit someone elses plot... see here... 1988.....now you owe me some puts....
ATS Video: Ron Paul - The American Power Elite: (3)
Spunkmeyer wrote:
I think that is spot on - but the impression I get is that he at least walks the walk- e.g. didn't take any kind of financial aid from the government to put his kids through college.
Nova:
If you haven't read him you might be interested in Giovanni Arrighi ("Long Twentieth Century", "Adam Smith in Beijing").