MMMI alert!

From Karl D:
Paul/Grayson Amendment Passes In Committee

Barney Frank:

“It’s going to be seen as weakening the independence of monetary policy with consequent negative implications,” Frank told reporters after the vote. “People are going to be worried about the impact on the dollar, on the interest rate.

outsider
what no pint of blood,boy you had an easy bank

1. Oregon mortgage delinquencies set new records in third quarter: Nearly one in 10 Oregonians were at least 30 days past due on their mortgage in the third quarter, according to a report issued today by the Mortgage Bankers Association. About 9.4 percent of the state's 631,000 mortgages were either delinquent or in foreclosure. That's nearly 2 percentage points higher than the peak troubles seen in the 1980s recession. The delinquency rate show an especially high jump between the second and third quarters, rising from 5.87 percent to 6.57 percent in non-seasonally adjusted figures. I'll have more on this in tomorrow's edition of The Oregonian. Jay Brinkmann, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, pushed back his forecast for the peak of foreclosure filings. Last quarter, he said late 2010. Now, he says maybe 2011. (Calculated Risk) Here's a spreadsheet showing Oregon's delinquency and foreclosure rate by quarter dating to 1979.

Top 5: Oregon mortgage delinquencies set new records in third quarter | Front Porch - OregonLive.com

---CR gets a mention!

I'll clue you in to the whole bullion-numismatic angle...

Evangelicals have been like sales putty in the hands of boiler-room coin dealers, because anybody with a rigid group-think angle is easy pickings on the phone, as far as separating them from their money.

The angle of the dangle has always been to switch them from low profit bullion, to numismatic coins, instead. The evangs were more susceptible than most, as gold & silver are mentioned in the bible, and hopefully a good many of them bought old collectible coins that will plummet in value along with every other collectible, but a lot of them are sitting on precious metals they bought in the past decade/s and doing better than anybody else in the country financially (aside from assorted Unabankers) right now.

That's the reason the boiler-room coin dealers are on drudge, rush, sean and all the righty-tighty-gawdalmighty news sources, the sales vein was and continues to be quite wide there.

The evangs are the Americans that aspire to be Indian (think Mumbai, not Manhattan) and if the shit hits the fan and the dollar is woefully debauched, much like they did politically in electing King George II to not one, but 2 reigns, they will hold the financial reins, as they are the only cohesive group with real money in our country.

Scary.

JD: Now I need to make a change in clothes.

There's a new CONservative eCONomic theory that the the Fed has been testing over the past 15 years. It's called "flood down" eCONomics.

It works like this. The fed FLOODS Wall St. with money and then hopes that the money trickles down in an efficient manner on the rest of the eCONomy. Results from the first 14 years were dreadful so the the Fed is increasing the FLOOD of money to Wall St.

Yep, Wall St. really "earns" those bonuses.

Angry Saver wrote:

that keeps me bearish on house prices.

IOW, it's just you.

Definitely another leg down, and IMHO a rather large one at that.

I know it sounds odd given all the cheerleading by "experts" on CNBC, but there's something about high unemployment, declining aggregate income, excessive household debt and 19 million vacant homes that keeps me bearish on house prices.

You've got to get with the times, Angry Saver. Reality was so yesterday. We're on to alternative dimensions of fantastical proportions now.

:delusionspeak:

Cinco-X wrote:

“It’s going to be seen as weakening the independence of monetary policy with consequent negative implications,” Frank told reporters after the vote. “People are going to be worried about the impact on the dollar, on the interest rate.

Independent monetary policy has done a bang-up job so far. We should give them a bit more rope, in my opinion.

oooh...glad you are here energycon: I be stupid and need an education. Nat Gas supplies via the report linked here yesterday show record storage, decreased demand. OK so today it is reflected in getting ~2% haircut. BUT on volume trades there is this: US NAT GAS FD LP 8.96 0.22 14952439 in the green. So what gives with that?

JD - There are a lot of gold bugs on this site, and I wouldn't consider a one of them to be evangs.

I think you're over-stereotyping here.

Good 2nd , kids.

Clowns
Never
Been
Correct

Breaking news. The Angry Saver is no longer bearish. He's now ursine. That still means I'm bearish though.

Not a mixed metaphor, rather, it's a mix of narrative mode.

when liberals start talking about a Democratic administration in those terms the Democrats better start worrying. Barney Frank can continue to be a stooge for the Banking industry because he gets re-elected in such overwhelming numbers. If the Republicans were smart they would support a liberal independent candidate to oppose him. I think even Frank would find that there are people who are might angry about his positions. The good thing about Dodd being in a tough re- election race is that expect the Senate bill to be much more populist.

Outsider wrote:

I think you're over-stereotyping here.

I wouldn't consider the commentariat to be an appropriate cross-section of society. On the whole, JD may be correct that dealers are targeting evangelicals, and that wouldn't be apparent on this site. If anything, we've got a negative confirmation, in that gold dealers aren't targeting members of the commentariat, who are--for the most part--not evangelicals.

But in all honesty, I have no idea.

9 handles on DJI and S&P going into the weekend?

I only speak from my experience of being on the inside looking out, for decades..

An observation of the clientele~

HomeGnome wrote:

The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." ... "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

Sounds suspiciously like Rumsfeld.....or Cheney......or.....

When you are part of the ruling pundit class, your opinion is worshiped from on high.

HomeGnome wrote:

Do you have any info on the soy bean rust in LA?

No, but I'm aware they have a close eye on it in southern parts.

Many were wiped out in the 23 days of rain during October. Lots of guys are looking grim on a line from North Texas to Jackson, Mississippi from flooding.

SNAFU wrote:

T&O spent their wad on the wrong horse. They could have spent half of that TARP money on direct job creation. Now it is too late.

and that's pretty much the jist of Krugman's article today.

energyecon wrote:

the reality-based community

got a link for that?

Hoocoodanode?

Outsider wrote:

it appears that the main gold lubbers are TEOTWAWKI types - and they cover a whole bunch of philosophies/theologies.

If 50% are bunker-building TEOTWAWKI-types, who are often fiercely independent, and 50% are evangelicals, which set will have the necessary group-think to develop a cohesive and unified voice to government, backed by money?

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

I nearly threw my shoe at the tv, when King George II started talking

Was that you in Iraq?

HomeGnome wrote:

State and local governments will have to raise taxes and cut spending in the current and next two fiscal years to cover shortfalls totaling $469 billion, according to an Economic Policy Institute report.

feeds into the idea that the Fed is struggling to outrun the wealth destruction

that is 1/2 a trillion dollars in two years, fiscal years, but a tight fit for a system with little wiggle room left

a cohesive and unified voice to government, backed by money?

Aint. Gonna. Happen.

Unless that voice is Chinese, I don't think you have to worry about it.

But what do I know. I'm weird.

Budget shortfalls pose a direct threat to millions of U.S. jobs, many in the private sector, as state and local governments lay off workers and cut spending on contracts and other business services, a think tank said on Thursday.

I wonder if the "think" tank has ever CONsidered how we can always find money for wars, bank bailouts, banker bonuses and the like, but not for jobs, education, health care, etc.

Outsider wrote:

Aint. Gonna. Happen.

Indeed, I have no idea what's going to happen. I'm just riffing.

I've got an interview this afternoon. There is a 1/4 chance that my new employer will be the Government of the United States of America.

Okay, JD, I don't share that particular phobia, I have enough others to tend to.

But in the end I don't think you have to worry about it anyway, because I foresee the gold bubble popping. I know that's an unpopular view, but even if it's possible to probable, you won't have to worry about goldlubbers grabbing the reins.

Only time will tell to see how this plays out.

Weekly wrap: Forecasting revenue is a lot like predicting the weather these days

JD: I got exactly what you meant and I know it wasn't directed at those of here. Why it bothers me is because if that plays out, we'll be back in the second century again meaning, a new dark age.

I had a neighbor a few years ago.
Crazy Christian.
Would (and did) claim that "God didn't make N*****s!"

It must be South Carolina....

I believe yesterdays price action left an island top from wednesday- could be interesting. ALthough I agree that the mutual fund frat boys will do everything possible to keep the market up until year end.

volker the viking wrote:

feeds into the idea that the Fed is struggling to outrun the wealth destruction
that is 1/2 a trillion dollars in two years, fiscal years, but a tight fit for a system with little wiggle room left

I think you're right on here Volcker; I recently posted M1 and M2 numbers, and there's been almost no increase in reported M2, despite all of the debt creation. What gives? I'd say monetary inflation is not really occurring, despite the Fed's best attempts, and what price rises we've seen (aside from gold) are really the effect of speculation and inflationary expectations. Gold is more of a panic flight to safety.

"house prices and credit quality ... to weigh on the US financial system"

Funny. The original causality was the reverse. The financial system accepted poor credit quality and drove up housing prices.

"That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

It is the rule in war, if our forces are ten
to the enemy's one, to surround him; if five to one,
to attack him; if twice as numerous, to divide our army
into two.

If equally matched, we can offer battle;
if slightly inferior in numbers, we can avoid the enemy;
if quite unequal in every way, we can flee from him.

Hence, though an obstinate fight may be made
by a small force, in the end it must be captured
by the larger force.

NateTG wrote:

TARP isn't futile. It's a bonus program, not a jobs program.

Starting to look like more of an extortion payoff-

Breaking:

DHS declares private ownership of gold and silver to be illegal.
Penalty for ownership is 20 year mandatory minimum.

---sorry no link.

Outsider wrote:

TJ - I was thinking of you during this discussion.

You gotta realize what context I use "TEOTWAWKI" in, though -- basically the end of the easy money economic expansion that has characterized the late 20th century. That's over, and it's taking the dollar down with it.

For the majority of Americans life will never be the same.

volker the viking wrote:

State and local governments will have to raise taxes and cut spending in the current and next two fiscal years to cover shortfalls totaling $469 billion, according to an Economic Policy Institute report.
feeds into the idea that the Fed is struggling to outrun the wealth destruction
that is 1/2 a trillion dollars in two years, fiscal years, but a tight fit for a system with little wiggle room left

What a mixture of assumptions. When state and local governments cut budgets, it doesn't get reduce the GDP or the money supply dollar for dollar. It might or might not increase wealth.

If you cut a stupid, wasteful, and counterproductive activity, it will actually help the economy. Certain forms of government regulation come to mind. If you cut something which was actually very beneficial (e.g., vaccines and fire protection), it could be very bad for the economy and wealth.

i have a friend that works for legal enforcement at a state dept of revenue. the big problem right now is getting merchants to pay the sales tax that's already been collected because so many of the small businesses are using the money for regular operating expenses.

Cinco-X wrote:

Gold is more of a panic flight to safety.

We haven't reached the panic stage yet. You'll know when it happens.

gabyjan wrote:

and with 2009 years of history behind human civilization(sp)

The Chinese have at least a thousand more that that, and if you consider Ur to be the earliest civilization, it's more like 6000 years-

But during a time of record revenue losses for states, the monthly estimates are crucial to sizing up a budget gap

dum luk,

Imo, the real (productive) economy is getting worse. Declining tax receipts and exploding state deficits are proof.

The financial eCONomy has improved due to Fed and Government actions.

Cinco-X wrote:

Gold is more of a panic flight to safety.

We haven't reached the panic stage yet. You'll know it when that happens.

My experience in Philadelphia suggests that at least some "non-bubble" areas still have a ways to go.

Don't get me wrong, the Philadelphia area had a bubble - house prices grew much faster than incomes for some time - but it wasn't anywhere near a Florida or California. For some reason, house prices have held up much better than I expected. Starter townhomes in the far suburbs can still go for over $300k.

For some reason we haven't had the same drop in prices as the rest of the country. There hasn't been quite the foreclosure problem, and I suspect that since employment has held up all right (relatively speaking) people have been able to hold out and "wait for the market to recover." The tax credit has certainly kept a floor under prices as well. Sooner or later prices will fall into line with incomes, and I expect a pretty big drop.

noob<
Good luck today; ya hoser!

Outsider wrote:

but it appears that the main gold lubbers are TEOTWAWKI types

http://www.nonsenseuponstilts.com/dhost/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/NotThisShitAgain.jpg

The inflating dollar is a home bouyancy device.

Ron Paul, Alan Grayson Audit The Fed Bill Approved In House Finance Committee

In an unprecedented defeat for the Federal Reserve, an amendment to audit the multi-trillion dollar institution was approved by the House Finance Committee with an overwhelming and bipartisan 43-26 vote on Thursday afternoon despite harried last-minute lobbying from top Fed officials and the surprise opposition of Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who had previously been a supporter.

deanfv
let me ask you this, if this was a money market could you say that it "broke the buck"?

n an unprecedented defeat for the Federal Reserve, an amendment to audit the multi-trillion dollar institution was approved by the House Finance Committee with an overwhelming and bipartisan 43-26 vote on Thursday afternoon despite harried last-minute lobbying from top Fed officials and the surprise opposition of Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who had previously been a supporter.

Barney Frank is a no good @#$%&! sucking mother @#$%&! trader to our country!

WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP VOTING IN @#$%&! HATS!!!!

some investor guy wrote:

volker the viking wrote:
State and local governments will have to raise taxes and cut spending in the current and next two fiscal years to cover shortfalls totaling $469 billion, according to an Economic Policy Institute report.
feeds into the idea that the Fed is struggling to outrun the wealth destruction
that is 1/2 a trillion dollars in two years, fiscal years, but a tight fit for a system with little wiggle room left

And this nugget from Tennessee:
Budget cuts could lead to the early release of 3,300 Tennessee prisoners | TriCities

Little told Bredesen in order to cut $53 million from his budget, the Department of Correction would have to set 3,300 inmates free earlier than expected.

“Frankly, we’re at the point now where there isn’t anything else to give other than beds,” Little said. “If it wasn’t for the budget, we wouldn’t be talking about any sort of early releases.“

When Little (Dept. of Correction Director) presented his budget to the governor Monday, he told Bredesen “non-violent” offenders (burglars, robbers, and drug dealers) who are nearing the end of their sentences would be in line to be released.

,rad Gnome,

When the bad guys figure out the evangs have the only dough worth having, it'll get interesting, no?

shill<
Wake N Bake.

Only on Saturdays oh and 4:00 pm Fridays ADB hahaha!

Kinda like the pope riding around in a bullet proof vehicle?

Sam Kinison's riff on that is still LOL funny, 20 years later.

"A Truly Extraordinary Slump": Reports of Robust Recovery Premature, James Galbraith Says

Posted Nov 19, 2009 01:51pm EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession
Related: XLF, XHB, ^dji, ^GSPC, DHI, TOL, PHM

...University of Texas professor James Galbraith was never a believer in the V-shaped recovery and says it's going to take a very long time for the U.S. to recover from a "truly extraordinary slump."

What the optimists are missing is the impact the housing bust is having on both American's ability to borrow and banks willingness to lend. The resulting credit contraction will prevent this recovery from following the path of those following prior post-war recessions, he says.

snips

In sum, Galbraith still says we need a second stimulus package, as we'll discuss in more detail in a forthcoming segment.

... and the surprise opposition of Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who had previously been a supporter.

That's only a surprise to those who didn't know he expected Watt's gutted version to be the only one making it out of his committee.

dude,

that was so totally in snark...that attitude/statement was the bane of my existence for about four years...never got one of the t-shirts, but always wanted one that read "member of the reality based community"

Repeat after me:
Debt is NOT stimulus.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Galbraith still says we need a second stimulus package

ARGH!!!! More Keynesian claptrap!

I still think "fluffing" is a better name for these packages-

Roubini Is Still A Bear, His 10 Reasons For A U-Shaped Recovery

been noticing a significant LSP presence writing tickets in teams

seat belt, speeding, busted tail light, out dated registration, no insurance, DUI,

oh, yeah, Bobby Jindal will not be havin' no truck wid no budgetary shorfall

and there be lots of TX and MS and AR license plates to pick on.

once pulled over, they be findin' sumpin to write you up on

,rad TJ,

I wish Martin had numismatic immunity and we could spring him from his miserable existence, the man who knew too much-apparently, judging from how much time he's done in the slammer for much ado about nothing.

The time sequences of his aren't for me, as I deal from the bottom of the deck historically, as does he. He's brilliant in his ability to make you understand the flow of money vis a vis the Roman Empire and other epochs.

The scratchy quality of his dispatches from the Eastern Front is hard on the eyes, but warms the mind.

Cinco -

Misread your point as Ur = China. Ack. Coffee almost ready.

Unemployment Rate Increases in 29 States in October 

shill
because of all he has done for them

Sort of our own Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn?

josap
hate to say it but there wont be much need of child care centers with a jobless recovery

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Not until it translates into wages it isn't.

winner winner chicken dinner

noob goldberg wrote:

I've got an interview this afternoon. There is a 1/4 chance that my new employer will be the Government of the United States of America.

Which lobbyist will you be working for?

nova wrote:

What the optimists are missing is the impact the housing bust is having on both American's ability to borrow and banks willingness to lend.

Another economist who just doesn 't get it. Essentialy what he is saying is that "our problem is that we no longer have a bubble economy" . Classic case of confusing a symptom for a cause. Its all about incomes- force the Chinese to revalue, make imports meet the same environmental and labor standards !!!

"The logistician draws the line that the tactician dares not cross."

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

A few weeks ago in Tijuana-adjacent, a guy tried to sell a $50 1 oz CML for face value, and the surf-polloi were going, "like no dude, stop trying to rip me off, dude".

Some things are all a matter of perspective.

Do you buy the "extra" speakers that are "high end" and worth $1,000 for $100 also? *

Give money to the guy at the gas station whose cell phone is dead, forget his wallet, and mother is in the hospital and he just wants some money for gas to go see her? **

People can become a little skeptical depending on environment.
I don't carry around a scale or a Fisch with me, and bet I couldn't tell the difference between gold and gold plated tungsten in my bare hands. Do the same on Ebay and I bet there would be more takers.

Ironically, I think people are very skeptical about bargains in housing, and while I don't think we are at a bottom nationwide, would not be surprised to see in retrospect areas that have already bottomed. There is much turmoil and migration in people and jobs, and for every couple of dozen losers their might be a winner or two.

• monthly occurrence at old area of employment
  ** weekly occurrence at same