"Room demand in 2009 will be down 6.0 percent (revised from -5.5 percent) before turning positive in 2010 at +1.6 percent (revised from +1.3 percent)."
This year demand projections were too rosy... So what next year will be better than expected
But fret not! RevPAR will rebound 5.5 percent in 2011.
I know this, because Smith Travel Research told us so, and they ... have a crystal ball, or a guy on staff from the cast of "Flash Forward", or something.
Apparently, they're using the new math ... where enormous existing oversupply, plus additional supply coming on line between now and then, plus tapped-out consumers, plus business cutbacks equals , baby!
RD- I think reits just have to many pension funds embedded with big stakes...targeted as critical by feds who sloshed the money to the mm's to keep propped....because it doesnt make sense...although they nicked me for lots of dollars via srs....
Got pigged. I figure ill post the other comment then add my 1/2 cents worth to the topic here.
Good afternoon all. Just got here and catching up. Wanted to say to Vonbek thanks for that interesting post about id, ego, superego.
Also small anecdote
A guest came in where I work and we started yakking. Turns out they were going from florida to ny state to stay with relatives and look for work. He had been unemployed for a year (construction) had taken some under the table side work with a friend and wound up injured very badly in a fall, no workers comp no more unemplyoyment etc. and now that he had finally recovered enough to get work (according to him he looked shaky to me) they were going to try to rent the house in fla and go north since the job market is so bad. I recommended they get some legal advice and look into not paying the mortgage and staying rent free until the sherriff comes, I explained about the possible backlog and how many years it could take and he looked at me and he grimaced with pain and said they were trying very hard to avoid losing the house. He doesnt get it yet, and he is beating his head into jello trying to go by the rules, without realizing the squids of the world have changed the rules.
Oh and on a really great note I am mobile again after
8months with no car.
My manager wanted to close off 12 rooms for the winter. We are dead dead dead on the weekends. I pointed out to him that during the weekdays we are usually at 80 percent to sold out and I asked if it is worth it to shut down rooms on weekends and have someone running around during the week flipping breakers on and dusting and such then shutting it all down again and he said no. So we will re-evaluate that after 2 weeks.
However - those savings are more than eaten up by increases in airfare. I'm pricing tickets I need to go from SAN to JFK in Dec. It's currently running over $800 for COACH. I used to get under $300. At this point I may spring for first class since paying $800 for a middle seat would blow chunks.
Don't know. I think he is too busy treading to worry about being a patriot, or a solid citizen. This man and his family are hanging on only by jamming their fingernails into the ladderrung and it is very close to collapsing. He knows it too, I could see in his eyes he knows it and is fighting as best he can with the abilities he has tokeep it from happening. I dont think it will work.
Not talking about the plastic coffin paranoid that went on in the circles this spring...but speaking of a ten year supply of coffins...I have been told off record by a highly reliable source that FEMA has quite the supply of emergency coffins ready. Not sure it is a 10year supply...but nevertheless it was an interesting conversation. Lessons learned from Katrina and fear for the worst with respect to avian/swine flu.
I recommended they get some legal advice and look into not paying the mortgage and staying rent free until the sherriff comes, I explained about the possible backlog and how many years it could take and he looked at me and he grimaced with pain and said they were trying very hard to avoid losing the house. He doesnt get it yet, and he is beating his head into jello trying to go by the rules, without realizing the squids of the world have changed the rules.
The blood funnel doesn't work without blood donors.
Thinking about EHP's (and RD before him) take on real negative value on houses. I agree, yet think there must be some caveat about the potential to be unlocked. An improved lot will still be worth something in the future, so that the investment would be long range. I can well see a place that is a negative (say a few thousand,) being worth ten of thousands (of course in real terms not nominal) in the future. Say, twenty years.
Oh and Palin Palin Palin. ( Need to get my quota in.)
The blood funnel doesn't work without blood donors.
Question. If the blood donors stop, either through volition or the fact that they died off and only left fossils and stories, the squid dies, right? Or will it just be the ultimate living-dead predator and go dormant until a new species of blood donor evolves?
Semi-nice house in my neighborhood (Owned by a neighbor, not sure how many properties he has) was up for rent for about 3-4 months...finally a decent looking family moved in (one kid). I checked into it, the asking price was 1300/mo.
After two months it is now vacant again, and craigslist has it listed as 1150/mo. negotiable...
The first tangible sign of rents coming down in my area I've seen.
A man sees a family eating grass in the park, so he has his chauffeur stop.
"This is awful, I hate to see you unfortunate people in this condition. Please come over to my house immediately."
---"How kind of you, sir. Will you give us a meal?"
"No, but the grass on my lawn is so much longer."
Thinking about EHP's (and RD before him) take on real negative value on houses. I agree, yet think there must be some caveat about the potential to be unlocked. An improved lot will still be worth something in the future, so that the investment would be long range.
Amazing how all the I predicted years ago has gone mainstream. I disagree here however. Unless a physical asset has a reasonable chance at generating (or enabling like autos) cash flow it really won't have any value because it will have costs but won't have any buyers.
A few years ago I wanted to load up some local laborers and go to Buffalo, NY to purchase and strip those $20,000 houses of their architectural elements for resale in SoCal. Now those houses cost $4000 but i can't find my workers and there is no demand for the product.
Thanks sdtfs. Just some ideas that I have had bouncing round my head for ten years or so. Don't think too hard, you might turn into an absent minded philosopher.
architectural elements for resale in SoCal. Now those houses cost $4000 but i can't find my workers and there is no demand for the product.
Cheap storage and deep pockets would make that a break even in,...well, I'd guess fifteen years. It would be very long term, like stashing the Packard in a barn.
Edit: BTW I knew a guy who said his dad did thin film work in physics and made a lot of money. His dad was buying a new Porsche every year and bagging it up in argon. Can't remember his name,...
See what happens when you have a Web based addiction?
Had I been on the web I would have remembered what time it was and left earlier. The problem was not being late, the problem was remembering that I have to take a ferry to this airport, which took an extra 20 minutes I wasn't planning on.
Try being told that yes, that was supposed to be your plane, but these other passengers are taking it to Seattle,...you'll have to wait for the replacement from Phoenix to arrive,...and the flight crew will be coming in from DC.
You see, what we need to do is get the deadbeats to work making more private jets, because that's what's in demand by people who have money to spend. Each jet needs a crew, so that means many more jobs per mile than the jumbos.
The people who can buy jets all "deserve" them, according to Lobbyist Ben Dover.
Try being told that yes, that was supposed to be your plane, but these other passengers are taking it to Seattle,...you'll have to wait for the replacement from Phoenix to arrive,...and the flight crew will be coming in from DC.
That's actually worked in my favour before, when I got to sneak on a direct flight that was running 4 hours late due to mechanical difficulties, which saved me 2 hours on a layover. But it would have sucked if I was supposed to take the direct 4 hours earlier...
$10B drop @ $70K per employee annually = 143K jobs.
This morning's weekly was > 500K.
Am I missing something, or is mish trying to fill vertical inches.
The good news is the supply of new hotels is slowing sharply. The bad news is that means less construction employment - and also negatively impacts hotel occupancy.
Am I reading this right? They are shocked that Hotel Construction Workers are going to be staying in less hotel rooms if there is less hotel construction?
Never said that but then I doubt you get it or even play in the game. You seam to want to destroy all even those who worked hard and won. Same difference with those who piss their life away don't deserve a free ride. Bitterness is not the answer.
Trust me. Your divorce lawyers--yes, plural--thank you for your continued patronage.
I'm still on my first. But on our wedding day we were down by the beach getting our pictures taken. An older gentlemen ambled by and yelled "Congratulations, I'm a divorce lawyer, take my card". On our wedding day.
"market lower on profit taking" they know that by speaking to every single person who sold. This kind of crap drives me crazy. What if it is new shorts and new longs at lower prices.
Marrying a "trophy wife" is a complete bonehead idea in which only men would think of as a good idea.
Rich men buy fancy homes, private jets, exotic sports cars, and pretty trophy wives because--apparently--at a certain point in your life a man just really wants to pay a lot of money for maintenance.
The good news is the supply of new hotels is slowing sharply.
The latest batch of Phoenix hotels have come on line, the Aloft chain is advertising on the radio to drum up biz. Gonna be a scary winter, they'll be lucky to make it to spring training.
But on our wedding day we were down by the beach getting our pictures taken. An older gentlemen ambled by and yelled "Congratulations, I'm a divorce lawyer, take my card". On our wedding day.
Welcome to the Marriage Casino. The House will always "win" even if you have a good stay and good luck in regards to your particular hand. We always think like the older gent you saw, but most of us try to keep our slime off of you so you can enjoy the day. However, we know the odds, and we know human history. The foundation of the marriage and of the people involved is--on average--very flimsy in America.
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BTW, conflicting out good, reputable divorce attorneys from ever being used against you is a great idea.
Marrying a "trophy wife" is a complete bonehead idea in which only men would think of as a good idea.
I should lump all divorce lawyers together, as I'm sure there are some great ones. But if a lawyer feels the need to advertise his business on someone's wedding day, it's time for him to pull back and realize that he's a shell of a human being and would be better off becoming a plumber.
a man just really wants to pay a lot of money for maintenance.
Which is why during downturns and recessions, those men turn to having affairs with other married women. Simpler on the parties involved and both parties have skin in the game so it usually works out well--relatively speaking...
*
I'm willing to donate my 15 room-nights to a homeless person.
An acquaintance who worked for state parks (OR) told me that she used to organized campground vouchers for homeless people during the winter (used to be the off season, lots of vacancies in state park campgrounds). Not the greatest place to be during the winter storms, but there are toilets & hot showers and a few yurts w/heaters. Seems as though some of those empty hotel rooms could be used to help people get off the streets during the winter.
Never said that but then I doubt you get it or even play in the game.
I think the problem comes down - not to specific trophies, wives or airplanes - but how concentrated the wealth of the society should be. I also have no idea what the "spread" should be, or how to re-spread it.
Seems to me that most people don't want a hand-out (or a hand-up) they just want a job that provides a decent living and enough health coverage so they don't get wiped-out by illness. Any society that can't supply that much, isn't worth having around.
Hope J6P doesn't read this, the real cat will be out of the bag.
"If full employment is 4 percent, people are wondering how we're going to get from 10 (percent) to 4. Well, try getting from 17 to 4. We may not get back to full employment for a decade," Mahn says.
Peter Maurin was an interesting man. He wrote simply, stayed on point, and distributed them as leaflets to the poor. During GD1 he was a "troublemaker."
Must be hubby and I as well.
Our room mate lost her job a couple of weeks ago. We told her that under no circumstances would she and her son be homeless or hungry. I can't imagine doing otherwise.
This is an advantage of living in Asian countries where women have fewer rights. I'm now beginning to pick up on this.
..."advantage" is an odd choice of words, but it all depends on your PoV. Yes, heavily male dominated countries place women at a significant disadvantage, but Americans believed in women's suffrage and still do. Try not to go native on your own kind or at least be honest when you do.
I don't think most people want wealth. I think most people want purpose. Now the media tries to sell wealth as a panacea, and I suppose wealth can help one find purpose, but for most I think it just adds to the confusion. Purpose cuts through all levels of society. The problem is when, just like in animal populations, you have too many individuals to fill the quotas. Add to this the machinations of a modern technology society, and less and less have purpose. Deep down people want to feel important whether it be shoveling horse manure or sitting at an executive desk. The true test of the coming age is divorcing people's self esteem from what they do. The current new age everyone is special was an attempt at this, but it doesn't work. We don't live in paradise, and no, not everyone is special. This is why to some degree religion fails too. People don't want a get out of hell escape card based on grace (imho). People like to wrestle God, like Jacob. As pack or herd animals we have to maintain that fine line between healthy competition and purpose filled lives. Going back to what I talked about earlier though, our current age doesn't provide the stories to understand the nature of this problem however.
The foundation of the marriage and of the people involved is--on average--very flimsy in America.
Dammit yagij, get writing on your book. As an engineer, there is a great deal to be gained by failure analysis. You are in a terrific position to put the failed products under the microscope.
Yeah, I know: Client confidentiality blah blah blah. I think that excuse is lame.
Our room mate lost her job a couple of weeks ago. We told her that under no circumstances would she and her son be homeless or hungry. I can't imagine doing otherwise.
* Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles is rising with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at record lows.
* “The Fed is trying to reflate the U.S. economy,” Gross wrote in his December investment outlook posted on the Newport Beach, California-based company’s Web site today. “The process of reflation involves lowering short-term rates to such a painful level that investors are forced or enticed to term out their short-term cash into higher-risk bonds or stocks.” (i.e. in other words, destroy savers and push them into risky assets)
* “Raise interest rates with 15 million jobless and 25 million part-time working Americans?” wrote Gross, co-founder and co-chief investment officer of Pimco. “All because gold is above $1,100? You must be joking or smoking -- something.” (bingo - they are boxed into a corner; gold is meaningless to Joe 6pack... the real worry will be if Ben prints enough to push oil over $100; then it begins to get interesting)
* The “heavy lifting” will likely be done first by other central banks such as those in Australia and Norway that have already begun to increase interest rates, Gross wrote.
The government doesn’t make people go into debt, of course. It just nudges them in that direction. Individuals are able to write off all their mortgage interest, up to a million dollars, and companies can write off all the interest on their debt, but not things like dividend payments. This gives the system what economists call a “debt bias.” It encourages people to make smaller down payments and to borrow more money than they otherwise would, and to tie up more of their wealth in housing than in other investments.
US Personal median income is about $35K, median household income is about $50K.
Salary isn't the only cost for employees, though, so I'm assuming he's making some back-of-the-envelope adjustment.
That's right. But even if you said it only cost $35K per employee, you still only save half a month worth of jobs.
The message should be: The problem is a helluva lot bigger than small biz loans dropping by $10B. I don't know if I understand that post by mish, it seems more distracting than anything.
Alas my nonconformist ways extend to grammar, but I will try to do a better job with breaking it up. I am a stream of conscious writer, my hands type while I think...a form of mental dictation. In the haste of the moment, I forget the little niceties of proper form. My apologies.
the real worry will be if Ben prints enough to push oil over $100; then it begins to get interesting
Yep, that gets J6Ps attention. Gas and food prices are many people's main concern. Someone here said a few weeks ago "Daddy, I'm hungry" is a very powerful motivator.
No, Lobbyist, you've got the wrong guy. A more progressive tax rate would hurt me individually. I have no debt, and have current loans out to several friends, at no interest. I've been an independent contractor since I quit my underpaying government union law job in State Court.
I see a doctor about every 4 years, usually for a sports injury. I don't want a free ride, and I'm all for supply and demand setting prices for sales of houses. The only free ride I've gotten is other Americans went to war on my behalf, nominally. Sure, they signed up, but I still owe them.
I'm sick of the garbage I read about government doing nothing. My union never ONCE demanded job security or so much as filed a grievance on behalf of a member fired for alleged laziness or incompetence. We WANTED a reputation for quality.
Dammit yagij, get writing on your book. As an engineer, there is a great deal to be gained by failure analysis. You are in a terrific position to put the failed products under the microscope.
You flatter me, but sadly, it is much simpler than you make it: e.g.
.
1. Man marries attractive/shallow/petty woman.
2. Woman marries wealthy/narcissistic/playboy.
3. Husband is tried of wife spending his money and contributing nothing.
4. Wife is tired of husband who works too much or treats her poorly.
5. Affairs play out, and couple goes into the court, and it all unfolds.
6. Ultimately, the dirt is aired, and the lawyers and judge say, "Hoocoodanode you two weren't equally yoked?!"
7. Couple is separated.
8. Rinse & repeat as necessary.
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You also have variations like "You gave me 3 STDs this year. I'm done with you, and our 20+ year marriage." or "It is either the drugs or me! (Spouse is shown the door)." or a personal favorite "Even after 3 months of being married to him, I knew I had married Hitler."
Edited for typos.
As valued in the next World Reserve Fiat Currency. Currency is just trust. If somebody trustworthy come along, creates a good story in the minds of masses, gold could crash. Everything in modern life is trust. Society itself is a trust bubble.
Well feeding time is almost over for the bears. Time for Elmo to take a nap. Kermit bout to check in? Anyone remember the Sheepdog/Wile E. Coyote cartoons...what was the sheepdogs name....can't remember for the life of me...but anyway...Bulls and Bears...
Ah, Fall - the crisp scent of doom is in the air and Gold trumps equities again today...
Yes NRA and from the looks of the Tonnages of Gold that has or is being bought up by other nations of the world that " Trust " in the paper is waning .....rapidly.
I don't think most people want wealth. I think most people want purpose.
It all depends on how you define purpose- and that might be a big part of the problem. I think most people want to eat and be housed and give their kids a shot at a better future. I think that is very purposeful but I don't think it is what our culture understands as purpose. I think most people want to be able to go to work, be told what to do, do it and get paid and come home to the purpose of their lives. I think lots of people have been made very unhappy by the idea that "you should enjoy and participate in what you do- be pro active and all that other stuff"
It comes down to it is not what people want but what they do. They way want a job but did they do the right thing with that income to protect their family and grow their wealth and safety net? I don't care what every body else does, I care what I do. I help people with respect, I don't enable people to stay failures. I see a win,win in almost every thing. Did the Banksters rob these people? Yep but at the same time most went running into debt chasing the Bling.
The lawmakers also capped limits on the permissible leverage assumed by banks. Large systemically significant financial institutions can't over-leverage themselves and have a debt to equity ratio greater than 15 to 1, according to a provision approved by the committee.
“The process of reflation involves lowering short-term rates to such a painful level that investors are forced or enticed to term out their short-term cash into higher-risk bonds or stocks.” (i.e. in other words, destroy savers and push them into risky assets)"
You seam to want to destroy all even those who worked hard and won.
Bullshit. I have never complained about a pro athlete's salary or bonus, but I have complained when stadiums are funded by local taxpayers for the benefit of private owners. Dick Fuld supposedly worked hard, but he lost. Hundreds of billions of dollars. Yet he still has hundreds of millions. Working hard to win at a ponzi game should be punished, not rewarded.
First rule of our American Idiocracy: Never admit your faults.
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It is only the rarest of the rare cases where one spouse was truly wronged. Usually it plays out as a ping-pong match of faults/mistakes that end up being the proverbial snowball at the top of the mountain rolling downhill 'til it unleashes destruction on the masses below. Start a feedback loop and series of escalations, and you end up in an office crying because your wife is now officially lesbian and running off with your daughter's youth soccer couch--or your husband is refusing to take his lithium because his religion's prophet appeared to him in a dream and told him that he was on the path of righteousness.
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Family Law was the original Springer show, but it was for private audiences only.
the ancient Hindu caste system (before it became the abomination that it is) was based on the premise that there were four types of people- those for whom knowledge was paramount, those for whom honor and valor were paramount, those for whom money was paramount and those that just wanted to be left alone , didn't want to think and wanted to be told what to do and were happy doing it some with pride others who didn't give a ****. I think it is our modern sense of egalitarianism that prevents us from accepting that half the population will be definition be below average.
Indeed. Paramours too. Unfortunately, you learn so much about their personal lives that you would have a hard time being too aroused with them around unless you are willing to be a bone-headed male or willing to risk a board complaint.
Go back and read what I said "Worked hard and won" The people who have caused this problem did not work hard but cheated. Top and bottom. Any one who played should get what they deserve. Won't happen in this government nor ones of the past or probably in the future. Welcome to reality.
Gold - checc
guns - check
pinto beans - check
And I have jello.
Really official looking "camouflage passport" from a fictional country?
Blank US travel papers?
"C" sticker for gas purchases?
Hardcopy medical textbooks?
In front of my building at work half the retail spaces are empty. Yet the city is tearing up the road to put in gas lit lamps. That will bring back the French resturaunt I am sure.
Funny you should mention that. Been picking up some from used book stores (really interesting 18century book on midwifery) along with translations of roman civil engineering.
In front of my building at work half the retail spaces are empty. Yet the city is tearing up the road to put in gas lit lamps. That will bring back the French resturaunt I am sure.
It was probably the business assessment district for those lights that pushed the restaurant to close in the first place. It's too early but when the time comes urban planners will get the recognition they deserve for their heavy hand in this mess.
a) They all have trade surpluses, according to the last monthly data
b) They all saw the value of their FX reserve holdings rise by at least 1.5% in the last monthly reserve data
c) In the last month, they have all announced either the contemplation or imposition of capital controls or punitive taxes/restrictions on foreign access to domestic asset markets.
... “Within a modern monetary economy, as a matter of national accounting, the sovereign government deficit (surplus) equals the non-government surplus (deficit)…In aggregate, there can be no net savings of financial assets of the non-government sector without cumulative government deficit spending. The sovereign government via net spending (deficits) is the only entity that can provide the non-government sector with financial assets (net savings) and thereby simultaneously accommodate any net desire to save and hence eliminate unemployment.” ...
Well, Edward Harrison explains the macro economic concept and accounting behind it very nicely:
... Unless the increasing current account deficit switches direction violently, this can only mean that reducing the government’s deficit reduces the private sector’s surplus. Net-net, the government’s decreased deficit spending will decrease savings in the private sector. And no deleveraging can occur if savings in the private sector are reduced. ...*
I now would like to see this debunked (which I don't think is possible) or the national dialog should really change dramatically. IMO we need to focus on increasing consumer savings and reducing private sector debt (not currently attempted) in order to recreate a dynamic economy, hopefully with a concurrent reduction in the CAD. However, one accounting entry has to go up in order to make that possible if this SIMPLE formula is correct. If this isn't widely understood soon we are facing a much more severe deflationary spiral for all the wrong reasons.
Actually RD, I think it was the homeless who used one side of the resturaunt to fornicate with transvestites, urinate, and take really liquid dumps.
You just made me recall a photo blog I read a year or two back written by a couple that was moving into a neighborhood in hopes of helping its gentrification. Sadly, it involved a drug dealer and fornication at 2:00p in plain sight of the bloggers--across the street in fact.
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I had almost forgotten about it until now...
Nope, sorry to piss you off but if the last two months hold together then I had a good year. I did not play the same game as most. My 401K made money every year for over a decade, rentals did good and savings did good. Every one who owes me money has paid up. That is what happens when you do win, win deals. So that doesn't play.
It was probably the business assessment district for those lights that pushed the restaurant to close in the first place
Actually RD, I think it was the homeless who used one side of the resturaunt to fornicate with transvestites, urinate, and take really liquid dumps.
Yet another tragedy that is much the blame of urban planners. The demand for unowned spaces makes for a sense of nospace where lawlessness can thrive.
Really official looking "camouflage passport" from a fictional country?
Blank US travel papers?
"C" sticker for gas purchases?
Hardcopy medical textbooks?
Who worked hard, Warren Buffett? He probably got bailed out more than anyone. Did he win? He said he just made an all-in bet, so it's too early to tell. He's lived well in the meantime. I would like much of my winnings to be given to the homeless and hungry--especially those willing and able to contribute work. I can't efficiently distribute it myself, and I trust the government more than an assortment of private charities. I fear fascism and single-party communism about equally.
The article mentioned about 10 CB's. We're both just speculating right now. I don't see the US and Britain buying, so we may not have hit the highs yet. If you go by population, China and India CB's are understocked in glod.
but when the time comes urban planners will get the recognition they deserve for their heavy hand in this mess.
I think you are being too unkind on urban planners. The main tenet of urban planning has been ignored by most cities and towns i.e. multi-use neighborhoods. The current system of having segregated residential and commercial neighborhoods is an incredible waste of resources. The infrastructure is under utilized and it requires far more investment in transit infrastructure than is necessary.
Yep but at the same time most went running into debt chasing the Bling
No argument there. But lots of people didn't too, and many of them will be getting screwed too. In the end, it's all about the standard of living provided by the available jobs. And competing with the 3rd world for jobs, and 30 years of out-sourcing, isn't going to allow the teaming-masses of average people here live very well.
The "world is flat" people should have been smart enough to figure this out.
The article mentioned about 10 CB's. We're both just speculating right now. I don't see the US and Britain buying, so we may not have hit the highs yet. If you go by population, China and India CB's are understocked in glod.
Why would we ( The US ) buy Gold? we supposedly have 8000 tonnes?
But how much of that is real and not Tungsten filled.
Speaking of bulldozing houses....anyone hear if Ted Turner is still buying up all the land he can get his hands on in plain states. I know all the farmers were in a frenzy that crazy Ted was going to own whole states and kick everyone out and repopulate the prairie with buffalo. Now that is a nice dream.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Really official looking "camouflage passport" from a fictional country?
Blank US travel papers?
"C" sticker for gas purchases?
Hardcopy medical textbooks?
Well, now I am missing a few things.
Now don't laugh but: condoms. And by condoms I mean lots of condoms. Plain latex, not lubricated or spermicided or ribbed or... just plain and thousands of them. First, they don't take up much space. the kind described properly stored last forever. They have lots of other uses in and around the bankerdome. When it comes time to trade... trust me them little gold foil trinkets will trade for real gold. [In the same vein latex gloves, unpowdered and some heavy duty nitrile gloves as well. Consider an antique reuseable hypodermic set as well.
one of the big problems with this line of reasoning while it might work in aggregate - is the equivalent of putting your feet in the ice box and head in the oven and declaring you have an average temperature. Sure private savings go up - but they are not evenly distributed and the process of doing that increases the savings in a small number of people leaving an even larger number in debt.
If we are going to get a new economic model we first have to start with new measurements that tell us what is happening at the base of the pyramid not just the aggregate of the pyramid.
“Beijing, in the 1990s, ordered factories to churn out goods in periods of low demand, and there are indications that officials are resorting to this tactic now. While optimistic analysts point to astounding car sales–up 70.5% in July, 94.7% in August and 83.6% in September–there are reports that central government officials have ordered state enterprises to buy fleets of vehicles and that these businesses are storing them in parking lots across the country. These stories are as yet unconfirmed, but they are consistent with statistics showing that gasoline sales have been flat this year–up only 6.4% in August, for instance, and sliding since then from all indications. So here’s another question: At a time when economic activity is supposedly rising at a quick pace, how can large increases in passenger vehicle sales not be accompanied by corresponding surges in fuel usage? (emhasis added)
The answer is that Beijing’s statisticians have gone back to their old tactic of making up figures to support the Politburo’s predictions. The Chinese economy is probably growing due to state-led investment, but it cannot be doing so at the rates claimed. Wen Jiabao’s stimulus plan is, above all, grossly inefficient. For all the money he is pouring into the economy, the country is getting a small return in economic output. That’s why Premier Wen, despite the high growth numbers he’s been reporting, consistently refuses to end his stimulus program. If his numbers were real, he would be worried about overheating. But he’s apparently not.”
Can't stand the fact that old Warren had a advantage. The fear of Paris Hilton is so damming to keep you under thumb. Trust the government the ones we paid to be watch dog over this mess? The one who has corruption all over the place. How much money do you have in your freezer? Did I tell you I started pumping gas for a living? You know got paid one of those not able to live on wages? It wasn't hard it was hard work. Americans generally avoid that and the ones who do and learn to be smarter can go quite far climbing the ladder.
The problem is determining who is REALLY working hard and honestly BEFORE the onset of reality (like the one now). Don't forget, only two years ago the banksters were being worshipped as gods (the honest and hard workin bidness leaders of the greatest country that ever existed) and then (suddenly) it was discovered to be all on borrowed money (which two years ago was also a sign of "goodness"). That's the problem with morals, they change.
I think you are being too unkind on urban planners. The main tenet of urban planning has been ignored by most cities and towns i.e. multi-use neighborhoods.
The problem is that urban planners are the problem. Their meddling even in the mixed-use revival has resulted in uniformly subpar results. Top down doesn't work for cities or economies.
3) The world’s central banks are now seeking to protect themselves from a falling dollar by buying gold. After years of selling gold, ironically, the central banks are now buying gold. In today’s WSJ we see the headline, “Central Banks Join A New Gold Rush.” Russell Comment — This is indeed ironic. In swapping their own paper for gold, many central banks are admitting that gold is superior to the very paper they are creating out of thin air.
Got to disagree here. Find one family, nieghbor, student and help that person/family. It doesn't have to be cash, a box of food toward the end of the month, books, pay for an after school tutor, gift card to the thrift store. Pick an angel off the stupid tree at the mall and do someting lasting if possible, not just a toy.
The main tenet of urban planning has been ignored by most cities and towns i.e. multi-use neighborhoods. The current system of having segregated residential and commercial neighborhoods is an incredible waste of resources.
Santa Monica has been trying this. The results are:
1. Noisy dirty residential due to location in commercial areas
2. Unsuitable commercial facilities to support residential use (no markets, no gas stations, mostly fashion outlets)
3. Horrific traffic congestion and grossly inadequate parking for both residential and commercial users.
conversion of private spaces to public spaces attracting tragedy of the commons types of exploiters from homeless to criminals to unregulated business.
The infrastructure is under utilized and it requires far more investment in transit infrastructure than is necessary.
But it still comes down to supply and demand - there is more supply of multi-use neighborhoods than demand. Some people want multi-use neighborhoods, some don't. Groupthink is the urban planning mistake - urban planning today overemphasizes multi-use neighborhoods; urban planning 40 years ago overemphasized segregated-use neighborhoods.
conversion of private spaces to public spaces attracting tragedy of the commons types of exploiters from homeless to criminals to unregulated business.
Some of the safest, cleanest, nicest places I've been in the SE US have had some of the most egregious, erroneous, and blatant abuses of due process and other basic legal rights as well. Apparently, it does keep the locals and the riff-raff in line.
"central government officials have ordered state enterprises to buy fleets of vehicles and that these businesses are storing them in parking lots across the country."
Americans print new dollars nobody wants and Chinese produce stuff nobody wants. This looks real good.
I'd say the 2009 Main Darwin Award aka "Which nation is really trying to fuck things up even more" goes to BOTH of them!
I know all the farmers were in a frenzy that crazy Ted was going to own whole states and kick everyone out and repopulate the prairie with buffalo.
Basically already did it in Montana; has so much bison meat that he had to start his own restaurant chain to get rid of it all. That joint is the bee's knees, Joe Bob says check it out.
It doesn't. We know a few CB's are low on gold. The larger hodlers US, Germany, Italy, Britain... what are their CB's doing with gold? Buying, selling or standing pat? We know Britain sold low...
But, the only alternative to top down is developers purchasing city politicians and doing whatever they feel like, urban planning was the liberal attempt to "fix" the smart amoral scumbag developers (in this case) from having the top-down upper hand. Of course, it didn't work, but that's not the urban-planners fault.
It doesn't. We know a few CB's are low on gold. The larger hodlers US, Germany, Italy, Britain... what are their CB's doing with gold? Buying, selling or standing pat? We know Britain sold low...
I thought London was real low due to the Chinese saying they wanted what they had stored there? and come to find out a lot of it was fake.
Lobbyist, what you're missing is that if insiders get away with massive cheating, the marginally employed and sometime homeless don't have a fair chance, because wealth is limited. Same if one group prints dollars and the other works for them. Saddam Hussein worked hard and "won", until our government intervened. Maybe his own people would have intervened at some point, we'll never know.
It was once widely believed that any interest on a loan was immoral, but then people realized the lender/saver should be compensated for the risk. Certain arbitrary rates were still banned as usury, under the notion that they couldn't ever be "fair". States like New York can still have usury limits, but they can't stop South Dakota from free-riding the loan-shark business with FDIC-insured cash.
Ahh, the good old days of living in the 90403. "My Father's Office." Mmmmmm.
anyway on topic: No one has mentioned the municipal impact of lower RevPAR; hotel txes. NJ has some in the 21% range, NYC 17%+ surcharges, 12-15% is very common. This is going to leave a big budget hole in the cities.
There's no other alternative. The people that purchase the politicians win OR the bureaucracy formed to slow down the smart amoral scumbags wins. That's the only two choice ya got.
There's no other alternative. The people that purchase the politicians win OR the bureaucracy formed to slow down the smart amoral scumbags wins. That's the only two choice ya got.
Well there's always the rule of law rather than the rules of men. I bet if that were ever tried it would work pretty good for a while at least.
It is the fault of urban planners. They pretend to an expertise they are not in possession of. Sound familiar?
perhaps some of you who decry all this top down planning might want to do live in a number of third world countries where there is a very small hand of government. Afghanistan might be good place to start along with Somalia. I think you will find you wish completely fulfilled- virtually no government to speak of. I find that most of those who complain about government are the biggest free loaders of all. The South west would be all but uninhabitable but for the Federal governments investment in water,
I do get it. All of this was to be overseen and not let get out of control by our government. Soon it may be us against our government but there are some at the top that are not cheaters just like all poor are not good folks either. The power shift was given away when the people went for the bling. They now cry foul. Just like any one who wants government health care is giving away their freedom for free. All very simple and unemotional but emotion sells easier in the US.
Gambling as an industry is growing: global revenues increased by 24% in the four years from 2004, totalling some $358 billion in 2008. Revenues from online betting are a small share of the total, at $20.2 billion, but are increasing fast. However the recession has hit the industry in the past year or so. Casino revenues in Nevada, for example, fell by 8.9% in September compared with a year ago.
You make them sound like space aliens. Do "they" exist, then? If "they" don't, they the ONLY choice you have is the smart amoral scumbags purchasing the politicians and doing whatever they like.
the only alternative to top down is developers purchasing city politicians and doing whatever they feel like
LOL! Urban planners can get bought off just as easily an any other politician. My ex is a civil engineer, says it happens every day on the job. She has to review every blueprint, mostly to make sure of water and safety clearances, says the planners and the developers are two peas in a pod - both sides blame each other for the mistakes she finds, but she knows they were made in agreement.
We already have measurements that discuss the distribution of the Wealth, wages. Gini coefficient is a good measure.
It is just that from a policy point of view we do not want to look at those measurements.
Additionally, it is as if our society has been convinced either due to historical reasons or propaganda that the American spirit is all about "attaining" the dream of getting rich. The moment the distribution of GDP or wealth or wages comes into play, we immediately throw socialist or communist around.
The last line:"He got a huge cheer when he told them he was increasing military pay. "That's what you call an applause line," he said, before boarding his jet and taking off at 4:11 p.m."
perhaps some of you who decry all this top down planning might want to do live in a number of third world countries where there is a very small hand of government.
You confuse civil engineering for urban planning. The two aren't the same, more often they are at odds.
Urban planners can get bought off just as easily an any other politician.
Of course, the smart amoral scumbags ALWAYS win. All you can do is try to avoid them. But, at least some cities might have honest planning departments. There at least SOME chances. Otherwise, the smart amoral scumbags WILL purchase the politicians. That's a given.
Lets see, Sweet sixteen rings a bell and I remember a place called Snug Harbor. There was a theater on Montana that was never busy on a Sunday. Worked at the gas station at Wilshire and 26th. Close to the Ball, Across from the Horn. My first business was at 17 and SM Blvd. Memories.
POP. I remember it being seedy and loving it. My cousin, who was blonde, blue eyed, and a surfer took me everywhere. I was the geeky cuz from the sticks. Jeebus, CA had a golden glow to me. My Uncle had a place at Redondo Beach and a 57? T-bird. All those girls with straight hair....
Well, then your ONLY choice is smart amoral scumbag developers doing whenever they like after purchasing politicians. That doesn't work all that well either.
There was a theater on Montana that was never busy on a Sunday. Worked at the gas station at Wilshire and 26th.
That's the Aero Theater. It has been restored and shows movies occasionally. They cannot operate it as a commercial theater because there is no place for patrons to park. So they show old movies when the other businesses are closed and there is some parking available.
All of the gas stations are gone. The last one that went now has an empty Blockbuster sitting on the property.
I'm late to this thread and apologies if others have responded similarly.
Vonbeck: Again you provide illuminating thoughts and some meat to chew on. Thank you. My experience/perspective in working with people on the front lines in my career is that of living life, aging and then death is absent of much of that dignity as you elude to. Part of the sickness in our society is that win/lose; someone must win at the expense of someone else or there are no spoils and no victory. Religion failed to keep up with the modern world in a modern way which addresses our challenges in every day life.
Our frenetic and quickly changing world leaves many behind, some are comforted by religion, that is something I would never be in favor or limiting unless it interferes with my ability to live my life with dignity. (I have issues, big ones, with organized religion but that another discussion) Many people I think (more and more now) realize they are expendable cogs in a wheel easily replaced, no matter how vigilant/hard working or even adaptive they are. Fear of job loss gives employers avenues to diminish that person more. As we see too often, that stress can bring about tragic results. Stress in the human is necessary to produce, too much stress is counter productive and leads to illnesses, poor work, poor family life, physical and mental strife. A highly mobile society provides little incentive for establishing connections in a community.
Some civilizations and communities allow for a place for everyone. No, not everyone is special, but each has a purpose which allows them dignity. All people, everywhere, want and need the same things in life to thrive. We each have something to offer, even those who are mentally different or physically unable to perform at par with others. Allowing each person to contribute as productive people and members of community is positive, enriching and again provides a dignity even for elders who today are horrifically marginalized in our society. People are whole and complex creatures which require nurturing on more than one level from childhood, through rearing families, to involvement and interests which allows outlets to provide personal growth and then on to their later stages in life which is rich in experience to be shared.
This is off the cuff but will provide me some wonderful food for thought later this evening.
Got to disagree here. Find one family, nieghbor, student and help that person/family.
A noble goal, but not practical for me. For one thing, I don't have a spare bedroom, so it would mean making out a check to their landlord, who might be making extra profit. There are several hundred thousand homeless people in my city. Some are crazy, violent, or diseased, and need to be approached by professionals.
I do volunteer work and support hand-picked charities, but I also want to be taxed to pay for social workers. It's not all goodwill: if they are starving and cold they will attack my family in the street and give us cholera, pneumonia, or flu.
so how are you going to develop those- I guess in the absence of qualified urban planners just pick people out of a hat?
Santa Monica solved this by making zoning moot. Now, if you need a permit to build something, you have to apply for an individual Conditional Use Permit. The usual price is you have to pay for improvements to adjacent city property. If you want to modify rain gutters, you need to install a cesspool for the rain gutters to drain in to. Who knew that rain was a pollutant?
Make for lots of work for planners, because that have to approve every single permit that gets issued, whether it's allowed by the vestigial zoning or not.
The comment is directed at all those who decry government and think that government is the enemy.
You aren't reading what is being written. Urban planning as practiced in the US is a tragedy with decades of failure as its legacy. Cabrini Greens anyone?
My last visit was in 2002 but didn't have lots of time to tour all around. It was amazing to me how some little hole in the wall places where still there and most of it disappeared with things like super markets with three levels including parking! My old shop was still there pretty much in original form but was a closed down Isuzu dealer. I could not afford to swing the $150K to buy the property! Pocket change now. Great place and time.
My blog entry yesterday was not about you qua entrepeneur; I just thought that if you were going to get into the business of publishing earnings estimates for technology companies — exactly the business you were banned from by the SEC — then it might be worth mentioning the ban as you did so.
In fact, the blog entry wasn’t really about you at all, as you might have surmised from the picture at the top and the lead paragraph, which were all about Michael Whitney. Maybe you could answer my questions where Bloomberg’s Judith Czelusniak didn’t: do you think it was OK for Bloomberg to hire Whitney and not disclose his past? If not, would it have been OK for Bloomberg to hire Whitney if they had disclosed his past?
how do you get to civil engineering from my comment? The comment is directed at all those who decry government and think that government is the enemy.
Which commenter is decrying government in total? Civil engineers are part of government, so are urban planners. Point out the comment that implies both are the enemy.
That's right. But even if you said it only cost $35K per employee, you still only save half a month worth of jobs.
The message should be: The problem is a helluva lot bigger than small biz loans dropping by $10B. I don't know if I understand that post by mish, it seems more distracting than anything.
This assumes that someone would borrow money for no other purpose but to pay salaries, which is not the case, at least for businesses that intend to stay in business. The idea is something more like this:
borrow $500k based on a business plan
rent building and hire people
purchase capital equipment
make and sell product
receivables turn out to be enough to pay salaries, insurance, rent, etc., and still have enough to pay down debt
With this model, the opportunity cost is much greater than the reduced $10billion might otherwise imply, but i guess this is hard for a Socialist to understand. BTW, nothing personal meant by that;
People who badmouth government jobs probably never tried to serve the public or couldn't hack it. They expect others to organize their society, protect them and the borders, teach their kids, inspect their food and medicine, run the criminal justice system, come up with perfect zoning and planning,... for shitty wages, all while they get a free ride.
I do volunteer work and support hand-picked charities, but I also want to be taxed to pay for social workers. It's not all goodwill: if they are starving and cold they will attack my family in the street and give us cholera, pneumonia, or flu.
You are doing your part, probably more than your part.
Everyone has a different motivator, you want to feel that your family is save - there is no better reason in the world to do what you have chosen to do.
Civil engineers have long been responsible for setting uniform standards. I don't know what expertise is involved in urban planning. A decade after the ribbon cutting, their projects tend to speak for themselves.
Ultimately, the dirt is aired, and the lawyers and judge say, "Hoocoodanode you two weren't equally yoked?!"
Unfortunately, the punishment is rarely meted out evenly, i.e., if you're the dude you're screwed, no matter what. Almost always, though I am aware of a few exceptions.
If they attract a Thai restaurant then both the puppy and rat problem will disappear.
+1
My wife is from Thailand (she's ethnically Chinese), and the Thai don't eat dog (or rat as far as I know). The Vietnamese (and most likely the Cambodians) do, along with the people that live in China. During the Vietnam War, some Vietnamese refugees came to live near one of the US bases in Thailand and went into business making meatballs. Pretty soon, folks started noticing that the neighborhood dogs were disappearing, and it didn't take long to figure out where they were going. BTW, the GIs called those meat ball monkeyballs, for example, one might say I had a bowl of monkeyball soup at the market today-
Not exactly the Hotel California.
Looking to go lower than last year.
And yet no hospitality bankruptcies or CRE lending bank defaults or even REIT stock drops.
Red roof inn you never come out the way you went in
"Room demand in 2009 will be down 6.0 percent (revised from -5.5 percent) before turning positive in 2010 at +1.6 percent (revised from +1.3 percent)."
This year demand projections were too rosy... So what next year will be better than expected
Soon that won't be necessary.
Introduce a proposal to allow a one time tax deduction for paying down principal on credit cards.
no! the banks need this interest income! so do the retired
next-
MS
we are going to close flat today......
Ciao
MS
As in 00000.0,
or 10426?
Yeah, 99% completed, surrounded by cyclone fence topped with razor wire and not considered available rooms.
And of course there won't be any condotel or condo repartmenting going on. No that would be adding too much to the denominator.
Investing Fads and Themes by Year, 1996 to Present The Reformed Broker
Nemo wrote:
Hotel News: The Hotel California has announced that guests may now leave. However, they will be required to wear a tracking device.
But fret not! RevPAR will rebound 5.5 percent in 2011.
I know this, because Smith Travel Research told us so, and they ... have a crystal ball, or a guy on staff from the cast of "Flash Forward", or something.
Apparently, they're using the new math ... where enormous existing oversupply, plus additional supply coming on line between now and then, plus tapped-out consumers, plus business cutbacks equals
, baby!
Bespoke Investment Group: Gold Closing in on 20% Above 200-Day Moving Average
RD- I think reits just have to many pension funds embedded with big stakes...targeted as critical by feds who sloshed the money to the mm's to keep propped....because it doesnt make sense...although they nicked me for lots of dollars via srs....
Very interesting when you look at the holiday times.
Down, down and probable down more this year.
Great News: If You Didn't Panic, Your 401(K) Is Now Above Water
Got pigged. I figure ill post the other comment then add my 1/2 cents worth to the topic here.
Good afternoon all. Just got here and catching up. Wanted to say to Vonbek thanks for that interesting post about id, ego, superego.
Also small anecdote
A guest came in where I work and we started yakking. Turns out they were going from florida to ny state to stay with relatives and look for work. He had been unemployed for a year (construction) had taken some under the table side work with a friend and wound up injured very badly in a fall, no workers comp no more unemplyoyment etc. and now that he had finally recovered enough to get work (according to him he looked shaky to me) they were going to try to rent the house in fla and go north since the job market is so bad. I recommended they get some legal advice and look into not paying the mortgage and staying rent free until the sherriff comes, I explained about the possible backlog and how many years it could take and he looked at me and he grimaced with pain and said they were trying very hard to avoid losing the house. He doesnt get it yet, and he is beating his head into jello trying to go by the rules, without realizing the squids of the world have changed the rules.
Oh and on a really great note I am mobile again after
8months with no car.
My manager wanted to close off 12 rooms for the winter. We are dead dead dead on the weekends. I pointed out to him that during the weekdays we are usually at 80 percent to sold out and I asked if it is worth it to shut down rooms on weekends and have someone running around during the week flipping breakers on and dusting and such then shutting it all down again and he said no. So we will re-evaluate that after 2 weeks.
Nemo wrote:
Stayed at Hotel Califorina, just out side of Piza, Italy. This year.
This does explain some of the rates I've been getting
~splat
What if coffin makers produced 10 years worth of supply, and people stopped dying?
rsj wrote:
Sad. I'm sure he's still a patriot tho.
Giuliani is said to have decided not to run for governor
....FWIW.
rsj wrote:
I also know allot of people in the same position. The
is counting on people like that.
I've booked some VERY low rates lately.
However - those savings are more than eaten up by increases in airfare. I'm pricing tickets I need to go from SAN to JFK in Dec. It's currently running over $800 for COACH. I used to get under $300. At this point I may spring for first class since paying $800 for a middle seat would blow chunks.
Don't know. I think he is too busy treading to worry about being a patriot, or a solid citizen. This man and his family are hanging on only by jamming their fingernails into the ladderrung and it is very close to collapsing. He knows it too, I could see in his eyes he knows it and is fighting as best he can with the abilities he has tokeep it from happening. I dont think it will work.
Not talking about the plastic coffin paranoid that went on in the
circles this spring...but speaking of a ten year supply of coffins...I have been told off record by a highly reliable source that FEMA has quite the supply of emergency coffins ready. Not sure it is a 10year supply...but nevertheless it was an interesting conversation. Lessons learned from Katrina and fear for the worst with respect to avian/swine flu.
rsj wrote:
The blood funnel doesn't work without blood donors.
ucgal wrote:
check JetBlue
Thinking about EHP's (and RD before him) take on real negative value on houses. I agree, yet think there must be some caveat about the potential to be unlocked. An improved lot will still be worth something in the future, so that the investment would be long range. I can well see a place that is a negative (say a few thousand,) being worth ten of thousands (of course in real terms not nominal) in the future. Say, twenty years.
Oh and Palin Palin Palin. ( Need to get my quota in.)
INO Futures and Commodities - Indexes - S&P 500 INDEX Dec 2009 (CME:SP.Z09) Price Chart and Quote
MS, are you looking at the same chart ?
If ever a sense of misguided optimism about the future of the U.S. hotel industry starts to creep up on you, just remember these figures:
4,800,000 available hotel rooms, which equals
1,755,000,000 available hotel room-nights each year in America.
Six room-nights a year for every man, woman, and child in these United States.
15 room-nights, per year, per American household.
I don't think further editorializing is even necessary.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Start a war.
The blood funnel doesn't work without blood donors.
Question. If the blood donors stop, either through volition or the fact that they died off and only left fossils and stories, the squid dies, right? Or will it just be the ultimate living-dead predator and go dormant until a new species of blood donor evolves?
Mook wrote:
2 months PAID vacation for everyone! Problem solved. (And people wonder why I get paid the big bucks...)
Semi-nice house in my neighborhood (Owned by a neighbor, not sure how many properties he has) was up for rent for about 3-4 months...finally a decent looking family moved in (one kid). I checked into it, the asking price was 1300/mo.
After two months it is now vacant again, and craigslist has it listed as 1150/mo. negotiable...
The first tangible sign of rents coming down in my area I've seen.
Either scenario works. It's not a predictable outcome.
Is that 2 months paid vacation with or without mandatory martial law from piggy flu?
A joke from GD1 (told to me by a WWII vet):
A man sees a family eating grass in the park, so he has his chauffeur stop.
"This is awful, I hate to see you unfortunate people in this condition. Please come over to my house immediately."
---"How kind of you, sir. Will you give us a meal?"
"No, but the grass on my lawn is so much longer."
sdtfs wrote:
Amazing how all the
I predicted years ago has gone mainstream. I disagree here however. Unless a physical asset has a reasonable chance at generating (or enabling like autos) cash flow it really won't have any value because it will have costs but won't have any buyers.
A few years ago I wanted to load up some local laborers and go to Buffalo, NY to purchase and strip those $20,000 houses of their architectural elements for resale in SoCal. Now those houses cost $4000 but i can't find my workers and there is no demand for the product.
Vonbeck- Interesting ideas from the last thread, I'll have to reread them when there's time to think.
Most of my vacation time is spent in a tent.
However, the cost of camping equipment and supplies is getting insane.
Josap wrote:
Unfortunately, they're $839 as of this morning for the dates I need.
Trust me - I've checked.
Thanks sdtfs. Just some ideas that I have had bouncing round my head for ten years or so. Don't think too hard, you might turn into an absent minded philosopher.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Cheap storage and deep pockets would make that a break even in,...well, I'd guess fifteen years. It would be very long term, like stashing the Packard in a barn.
Edit: BTW I knew a guy who said his dad did thin film work in physics and made a lot of money. His dad was buying a new Porsche every year and bagging it up in argon. Can't remember his name,...
I know how to fix RevPar. Knock a hole in every other wall. That will combine rooms and decrease the "Par". We can double RevPar overnight.
That should be enough for Blackstone to flip Hilton back on the public.
If you're heading into NYC, Newark is often cheaper than JFK (and probably more convenient, too). You might even try ISP, out on Long Island.
And if you're not using this site to fare search, you should be: ITA Software
It's the back end that all the major travel engines use, with a simple web UI that's ad-free, more flexible, and much quicker than anything else.
It's saved me countless hours of frustration (and lots of $$$, too!).
There are few things more frustrating in life than standing at at departure gate, with the plane in sight, and being told that the flight is 'closed'.
What do you mean it's closed? I can see it, it's 50 steps away! I'll run, I promise!
noob goldberg wrote:
See what happens when you have a Web based addiction?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Had I been on the web I would have remembered what time it was and left earlier. The problem was not being late, the problem was remembering that I have to take a ferry to this airport, which took an extra 20 minutes I wasn't planning on.
Try being told that yes, that was supposed to be your plane, but these other passengers are taking it to Seattle,...you'll have to wait for the replacement from Phoenix to arrive,...and the flight crew will be coming in from DC.
You see, what we need to do is get the deadbeats to work making more private jets, because that's what's in demand by people who have money to spend. Each jet needs a crew, so that means many more jobs per mile than the jumbos.
The people who can buy jets all "deserve" them, according to Lobbyist Ben Dover.
sdtfs wrote:
That's actually worked in my favour before, when I got to sneak on a direct flight that was running 4 hours late due to mechanical difficulties, which saved me 2 hours on a layover. But it would have sucked if I was supposed to take the direct 4 hours earlier...
Freefall In Small Business Loans
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
I feel the same way about trophy wives.
$10B drop @ $70K per employee annually = 143K jobs.
This morning's weekly was > 500K.
Am I missing something, or is mish trying to fill vertical inches.
noob goldberg wrote:
Trust me. Your divorce lawyers--yes, plural--thank you for your continued patronage.
noob goldberg wrote:
"They" never said what the trophy was for.
Am I reading this right? They are shocked that Hotel Construction Workers are going to be staying in less hotel rooms if there is less hotel construction?
JP wrote:
Isn't avg income somewhere in th $40,000. range?
Yogi,
Never said that but then I doubt you get it or even play in the game. You seam to want to destroy all even those who worked hard and won. Same difference with those who piss their life away don't deserve a free ride. Bitterness is not the answer.
yagij wrote:
I'm still on my first. But on our wedding day we were down by the beach getting our pictures taken. An older gentlemen ambled by and yelled "Congratulations, I'm a divorce lawyer, take my card". On our wedding day.
Even in Canada, they're slime.
"market lower on profit taking" they know that by speaking to every single person who sold. This kind of crap drives me crazy. What if it is new shorts and new longs at lower prices.
you need to look at the thru hiker model. check sites like postholer.com trailjournals.com
it was a real eyeopener to see the innovations , at very low cost.
JP wrote:
Marrying a "trophy wife" is a complete bonehead idea in which only men would think of as a good idea.
dum luk
thanks for the many interesting links
Marrying a "trophy wife" is a complete bonehead idea in which only men would think of as a good idea.
"Think" is not happening there.
yagij wrote:
Rich men buy fancy homes, private jets, exotic sports cars, and pretty trophy wives because--apparently--at a certain point in your life a man just really wants to pay a lot of money for maintenance.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
A place to hide your glod and silver
Mock Turtle,
Thanks for the many interesting thoughts.
Okay, new plane is here, l8r all.
The 'Real' Jobless Rate: 17.5% Of Workers Are Unemployed - Yahoo! Finance
- CNBC just reporting this? Why? We've known this for months!
The latest batch of Phoenix hotels have come on line, the Aloft chain is advertising on the radio to drum up biz. Gonna be a scary winter, they'll be lucky to make it to spring training.
The article I posted showed CNBC in the yahoo headline. Just wanted to clarify this.
noob goldberg wrote:
Welcome to the Marriage Casino. The House will always "win" even if you have a good stay and good luck in regards to your particular hand. We always think like the older gent you saw, but most of us try to keep our slime off of you so you can enjoy the day. However, we know the odds, and we know human history. The foundation of the marriage and of the people involved is--on average--very flimsy in America.
.
BTW, conflicting out good, reputable divorce attorneys from ever being used against you is a great idea.
yagij wrote:
I should lump all divorce lawyers together, as I'm sure there are some great ones. But if a lawyer feels the need to advertise his business on someone's wedding day, it's time for him to pull back and realize that he's a shell of a human being and would be better off becoming a plumber.
Okay, being paged.
noob goldberg wrote:
Which is why during downturns and recessions, those men turn to having affairs with other married women. Simpler on the parties involved and both parties have skin in the game so it usually works out well--relatively speaking...
*
*
I'm willing to donate my 15 room-nights to a homeless person.
An acquaintance who worked for state parks (OR) told me that she used to organized campground vouchers for homeless people during the winter (used to be the off season, lots of vacancies in state park campgrounds). Not the greatest place to be during the winter storms, but there are toilets & hot showers and a few yurts w/heaters. Seems as though some of those empty hotel rooms could be used to help people get off the streets during the winter.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
I think the problem comes down - not to specific trophies, wives or airplanes - but how concentrated the wealth of the society should be. I also have no idea what the "spread" should be, or how to re-spread it.
Seems to me that most people don't want a hand-out (or a hand-up) they just want a job that provides a decent living and enough health coverage so they don't get wiped-out by illness. Any society that can't supply that much, isn't worth having around.
Hope J6P doesn't read this, the real cat will be out of the bag.
"If full employment is 4 percent, people are wondering how we're going to get from 10 (percent) to 4. Well, try getting from 17 to 4. We may not get back to full employment for a decade," Mahn says.
The 'Real' Jobless Rate: 17.5% of Workers are Unemployed - CNBC
josap wrote:
$40k wages = $70k including overhead.....roughly
josap wrote:
But a company will pay substantially more than that per employee (ie, "loaded" salary) even tho the employee never sees the money.
josap wrote:
There isn't any demographic problem that Death can't fix.
tncubsfan wrote:
They're just figuring it out?
*
*
Nope, just a good gambler, playing the odds.
Calculated Risk's Bill McBride Named The ULTIMATE Business Game Changer
Arianna Huffington: HuffPost Game Changers: Your Picks for the Ultimate 10
Congratulations and thanks for your blog!
Handy Google-powered index of CR's RevPAR posts...
hotel revpar off site:calculatedriskblog.com - Google Search
Sorted by date descending.
From Peter Maurin. Written during GD1. Yes, He was a Socialist/Commie/Catholic
Municipal Lodgings
1. People who are in need
are not invited
to spend the night
in homes of the rich.
in the homes of the rich
but they are not
for those who need them.
for those who need them
because those who need them
are no longer considered
as the Ambassadors of God.
is no longer considered
as a personal duty.
are sent to the city
where hospitality is given
at the taxpayer's expense
Shadowstats has U6 at 22%.
Can we call the goose cooked now?
Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series
yagij wrote:
This is an advantage of living in Asian countries where women have fewer rights. I'm now beginning to pick up on this.
Peter Maurin was an interesting man. He wrote simply, stayed on point, and distributed them as leaflets to the poor. During GD1 he was a "troublemaker."
nova wrote:
Same... as.. it... ever was.
This is not my beautiful house.
yagij wrote:
Four potential clients! Woohoo!
jk
nova wrote:
Must be hubby and I as well.
Our room mate lost her job a couple of weeks ago. We told her that under no circumstances would she and her son be homeless or hungry. I can't imagine doing otherwise.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
..."advantage" is an odd choice of words, but it all depends on your PoV. Yes, heavily male dominated countries place women at a significant disadvantage, but Americans believed in women's suffrage and still do. Try not to go native on your own kind or at least be honest when you do.
I don't think most people want wealth. I think most people want purpose. Now the media tries to sell wealth as a panacea, and I suppose wealth can help one find purpose, but for most I think it just adds to the confusion. Purpose cuts through all levels of society. The problem is when, just like in animal populations, you have too many individuals to fill the quotas. Add to this the machinations of a modern technology society, and less and less have purpose. Deep down people want to feel important whether it be shoveling horse manure or sitting at an executive desk. The true test of the coming age is divorcing people's self esteem from what they do. The current new age everyone is special was an attempt at this, but it doesn't work. We don't live in paradise, and no, not everyone is special. This is why to some degree religion fails too. People don't want a get out of hell escape card based on grace (imho). People like to wrestle God, like Jacob. As pack or herd animals we have to maintain that fine line between healthy competition and purpose filled lives. Going back to what I talked about earlier though, our current age doesn't provide the stories to understand the nature of this problem however.
Dammit yagij, get writing on your book. As an engineer, there is a great deal to be gained by failure analysis. You are in a terrific position to put the failed products under the microscope.
Yeah, I know: Client confidentiality blah blah blah. I think that excuse is lame.
US Personal median income is about $35K, median household income is about $50K.
Salary isn't the only cost for employees, though, so I'm assuming he's making some back-of-the-envelope adjustment.
yagij wrote:
I'm not sure why you added the "trophy" qualifier.
josap,
May the good karma machine rain ponies down upon you and your household.
broward wrote:
Estate planning is historically the reason to get a wife. If you have no estate, you have no need to make plans, but if you do have an estate...
broward wrote:
HA!! Too funny.
yagij wrote:
I went native about 6 months ago. I think I'll start inventing fire again soon.
Anyways, you're correct about the disadvantages your're implying. The girls in California are usually hotter.
The bad new for hotel rooms is they cost money.
vonbeck,
A suggestion? Please break your posts up with parragraphs. My old eyes need more whitespace so I can read it.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Sweet. What nationality do you claim as your own now?
josap wrote:
Why do you hate capitalism? /snark
and kudos to you.
Latest Bill Gross PIMCO letter just out
Fund My Mutual Fund: PIMCO's Bill Gross December 2009 Letter : Risk of Bubbles Rises with Low Rates
* Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles is rising with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at record lows.
* “The Fed is trying to reflate the U.S. economy,” Gross wrote in his December investment outlook posted on the Newport Beach, California-based company’s Web site today. “The process of reflation involves lowering short-term rates to such a painful level that investors are forced or enticed to term out their short-term cash into higher-risk bonds or stocks.” (i.e. in other words, destroy savers and push them into risky assets)
* “Raise interest rates with 15 million jobless and 25 million part-time working Americans?” wrote Gross, co-founder and co-chief investment officer of Pimco. “All because gold is above $1,100? You must be joking or smoking -- something.” (bingo - they are boxed into a corner; gold is meaningless to Joe 6pack... the real worry will be if Ben prints enough to push oil over $100; then it begins to get interesting)
* The “heavy lifting” will likely be done first by other central banks such as those in Australia and Norway that have already begun to increase interest rates, Gross wrote.
Quite interesting to see
green and the Dollar green with the Market down.....hmm interesting event.
nova wrote:
Wait, is that a good thing?
with the Market down.....hmm interesting event.
The market's not open yet.
The burned hand types jest.
$4.8 trillion - Interest on U.S. debt
Interest due on U.S. debt: Close to $5 trillion - Nov. 19, 2009
My
er Instinct tells me I need more canned goods.
Tc Tic Tic Tic Tic
shill wrote:
I'm sure this group is to blame: Cats for Gold
Nasdaq Capitalization as a % of GDP | The Big Picture
Are we off topic enough yet for this?
How the tax code encourages debt : The New Yorker
Quick shred EVERYTHING at FED and GS HQ
Fed balance sheet can be audited, panel says - MarketWatch
Odysseus wrote:
That's right. But even if you said it only cost $35K per employee, you still only save half a month worth of jobs.
The message should be: The problem is a helluva lot bigger than small biz loans dropping by $10B. I don't know if I understand that post by mish, it seems more distracting than anything.
GLD now rivals many of the world’s central banks, among the biggest holders of bullion. If GLD were a central bank, it would rank fifth - just below France and above China.
World's Largest Gold ETF Turns Five, And How It's Grown - MarketBeat - WSJ
Are we off topic enough yet for this?
And that's before we even touch how credit scores encourage debt.
So why are we surprised at where we are now?
Alas my nonconformist ways extend to grammar, but I will try to do a better job with breaking it up. I am a stream of conscious writer, my hands type while I think...a form of mental dictation. In the haste of the moment, I forget the little niceties of proper form. My apologies.
TraderMark wrote:
Yep, that gets J6Ps attention. Gas and food prices are many people's main concern. Someone here said a few weeks ago "Daddy, I'm hungry" is a very powerful motivator.
Nice article. I was surprised by this: Great Britain, meanwhile, abolished its mortgage tax break in 2000.
I did not know that you could sustain housing without an income tax break. They are responsible for taking down the system! points finger
GLD now rivals many of the world’s central banks, among the biggest holders of bullion.
And when gold crashes, what will happen to the world's central banks?
as long as the ponies poop skittles, we are good.
Obviously your not paying attention hahahah! so sorry for you really
Canada is the same.
Outsider wrote:
They'll sell. CB's usually buy high and sell low. That's what they're set up to do.
vonbek,
No need to apologize. I just want to read them.
Uh huh. Well, we'll revisit that issue at a later point.
Please I am wearing my dunce cap today....explain for the board a Gold crash? what in US dollars? hahah you people kill me, no really hahahah!
No, Lobbyist, you've got the wrong guy. A more progressive tax rate would hurt me individually. I have no debt, and have current loans out to several friends, at no interest. I've been an independent contractor since I quit my underpaying government union law job in State Court.
I see a doctor about every 4 years, usually for a sports injury. I don't want a free ride, and I'm all for supply and demand setting prices for sales of houses. The only free ride I've gotten is other Americans went to war on my behalf, nominally. Sure, they signed up, but I still owe them.
I'm sick of the garbage I read about government doing nothing. My union never ONCE demanded job security or so much as filed a grievance on behalf of a member fired for alleged laziness or incompetence. We WANTED a reputation for quality.
yagij wrote:
Funny I can't shake that American one....since I still have to pay federal taxes even though I'm not using any services.
That reminds me of something a realtor once told me....
I am no psychic. It's just MHO. But we shall see.
JP wrote:
You flatter me, but sadly, it is much simpler than you make it: e.g.
.
1. Man marries attractive/shallow/petty woman.
2. Woman marries wealthy/narcissistic/playboy.
3. Husband is tried of wife spending his money and contributing nothing.
4. Wife is tired of husband who works too much or treats her poorly.
5. Affairs play out, and couple goes into the court, and it all unfolds.
6. Ultimately, the dirt is aired, and the lawyers and judge say, "Hoocoodanode you two weren't equally yoked?!"
7. Couple is separated.
8. Rinse & repeat as necessary.
.
You also have variations like "You gave me 3 STDs this year. I'm done with you, and our 20+ year marriage." or "It is either the drugs or me! (Spouse is shown the door)." or a personal favorite "Even after 3 months of being married to him, I knew I had married Hitler."
Edited for typos.
Reuters.com
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Depending on your state, that doesn't mean anything. Illegal immigrants do that too, but they wouldn't call themselves "american".
shill wrote:
As valued in the next World Reserve Fiat Currency. Currency is just trust. If somebody trustworthy come along, creates a good story in the minds of masses, gold could crash. Everything in modern life is trust. Society itself is a trust bubble.
Well feeding time is almost over for the bears. Time for Elmo to take a nap. Kermit bout to check in? Anyone remember the Sheepdog/Wile E. Coyote cartoons...what was the sheepdogs name....can't remember for the life of me...but anyway...Bulls and Bears...
Ah, Fall - the crisp scent of doom is in the air and Gold trumps equities again today...
Yes NRA and from the looks of the Tonnages of Gold that has or is being bought up by other nations of the world that " Trust " in the paper is waning .....rapidly.
But the novel part of your analysis: They both blew it.
I rarely hear that story from one or the other.
Edit: I also note that what you deem to be commonplace will be a revelation to those less experienced than you.
Vonbek777 wrote:
It all depends on how you define purpose- and that might be a big part of the problem. I think most people want to eat and be housed and give their kids a shot at a better future. I think that is very purposeful but I don't think it is what our culture understands as purpose. I think most people want to be able to go to work, be told what to do, do it and get paid and come home to the purpose of their lives. I think lots of people have been made very unhappy by the idea that "you should enjoy and participate in what you do- be pro active and all that other stuff"
Naah. Gold is like having a multi-million dollar health insurance policy. If it pays off, you're going to be relieved, but still not happy.
Broad restrictions on big banks near approval - MarketWatch
Committee eyes capping bank payout fund at $150 billion
I would rather be able to eat first, non the less a little pocket ( Gold ) change helps.
Thoreau- not something to do with, or to do, but something to be.
NAR,
It comes down to it is not what people want but what they do. They way want a job but did they do the right thing with that income to protect their family and grow their wealth and safety net? I don't care what every body else does, I care what I do. I help people with respect, I don't enable people to stay failures. I see a win,win in almost every thing. Did the Banksters rob these people? Yep but at the same time most went running into debt chasing the Bling.
Vonbek777 wrote:
WeirdSpace: Sam Sheepdog
The lawmakers also capped limits on the permissible leverage assumed by banks. Large systemically significant financial institutions can't over-leverage themselves and have a debt to equity ratio greater than 15 to 1, according to a provision approved by the committee.
Oh, well that will be quite safe. Carry on.
“The process of reflation involves lowering short-term rates to such a painful level that investors are forced or enticed to term out their short-term cash into higher-risk bonds or stocks.” (i.e. in other words, destroy savers and push them into risky assets)"
Caution is a form of resistance.
Lobbyist BD wrote:
Bullshit. I have never complained about a pro athlete's salary or bonus, but I have complained when stadiums are funded by local taxpayers for the benefit of private owners. Dick Fuld supposedly worked hard, but he lost. Hundreds of billions of dollars. Yet he still has hundreds of millions. Working hard to win at a ponzi game should be punished, not rewarded.
JP wrote:
First rule of our American Idiocracy: Never admit your faults.
.
It is only the rarest of the rare cases where one spouse was truly wronged. Usually it plays out as a ping-pong match of faults/mistakes that end up being the proverbial snowball at the top of the mountain rolling downhill 'til it unleashes destruction on the masses below. Start a feedback loop and series of escalations, and you end up in an office crying because your wife is now officially lesbian and running off with your daughter's youth soccer couch--or your husband is refusing to take his lithium because his religion's prophet appeared to him in a dream and told him that he was on the path of righteousness.
.
Family Law was the original Springer show, but it was for private audiences only.
Interesting Pdf from KD
http://www.denninger.net/pdf/cummings.pdf
Naah. Gold is like having a multi-million dollar health insurance policy. If it pays off, you're going to be relieved, but still not happy.
Kind of like guns and pinto beans
Thanks dum luk, one of my favorite cartoon series. Liked Sam better than Road Runner.
the ancient Hindu caste system (before it became the abomination that it is) was based on the premise that there were four types of people- those for whom knowledge was paramount, those for whom honor and valor were paramount, those for whom money was paramount and those that just wanted to be left alone , didn't want to think and wanted to be told what to do and were happy doing it some with pride others who didn't give a ****. I think it is our modern sense of egalitarianism that prevents us from accepting that half the population will be definition be below average.
Family Law was the original Springer show, but it was for private audiences only.
Much better than Criminal Law. Better looking clients too I imagine.
Gold - checc
guns - check
pinto beans - check
And I have jello.
yagij wrote:
I'm not sure what your mean by that one.
Pretty nifty writing yagij!
nova wrote:
Indeed. Paramours too. Unfortunately, you learn so much about their personal lives that you would have a hard time being too aroused with them around unless you are willing to be a bone-headed male or willing to risk a board complaint.
josap,
You are indeed blessed by the glodess of doom
Florida mortgage delinquencies hit 25%
Florida mortgage delinquencies hit 25% - South Florida Business Journal:
josap wrote:
Never forget the Jello!
Charles Kiting wrote:
Which is why it was so odd here, a few days back, to see someone suggesting that CBs buying was setting a floor under the gold market.
josap wrote:
Great! Now you're safe from that Chicken-Heart! Start smearing on the kitchen floor!
YouTube - Bill Cosby- Chicken Heart (1)
Yogi,
Go back and read what I said "Worked hard and won" The people who have caused this problem did not work hard but cheated. Top and bottom. Any one who played should get what they deserve. Won't happen in this government nor ones of the past or probably in the future. Welcome to reality.
crazyv,
Very interesting, thanks for sharing. More research to do.
josap wrote:
Really official looking "camouflage passport" from a fictional country?
Blank US travel papers?
"C" sticker for gas purchases?
Hardcopy medical textbooks?
josap wrote:
And hopefully some vodka or grain alcohol to make nuclear jello shots.
Yalt wrote:
I don't know how many CB's are buying glod right now, I imagine it's less than half.
In front of my building at work half the retail spaces are empty. Yet the city is tearing up the road to put in gas lit lamps. That will bring back the French resturaunt I am sure.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Funny you should mention that. Been picking up some from used book stores (really interesting 18century book on midwifery) along with translations of roman civil engineering.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Ben getting a little of that, too, eh?
nova wrote:
It was probably the business assessment district for those lights that pushed the restaurant to close in the first place. It's too early but when the time comes urban planners will get the recognition they deserve for their heavy hand in this mess.
Macro Man: A Game
What do these four countries have in common:
Brazil, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan
a) They all have trade surpluses, according to the last monthly data
b) They all saw the value of their FX reserve holdings rise by at least 1.5% in the last monthly reserve data
c) In the last month, they have all announced either the contemplation or imposition of capital controls or punitive taxes/restrictions on foreign access to domestic asset markets.
d) All of the above.
Yagji: I am on the path of righteousness: Write the damn book already, I'm already reading your snippets and liking it.
And fwiw: I'm happily married (nominally) and not looking for advice, but I still find it interesting.
It was probably the business assessment district for those lights that pushed the restaurant to close in the first place
Actually RD, I think it was the homeless who used one side of the resturaunt to fornicate with transvestites, urinate, and take really liquid dumps.
JP wrote:
Sadly, you start thinking everyone is rocking the party lifestyle because it is usually all you hear and sometimes see.
josap,
In that event, this might come in handy as well:
U.S. Army Survival Manual FM 21-76 - EQUIPPED TO SURVIVE (tm)
Do only Krugman and Auerbach get it?
Anybody remember Marshall Auerbach's blog post (he was thoroughly criticized for it here and lots of other places):
Government Spending is the Solution–Not the Problem | The Big Picture
and the key statement:
... “Within a modern monetary economy, as a matter of national accounting, the sovereign government deficit (surplus) equals the non-government surplus (deficit)…In aggregate, there can be no net savings of financial assets of the non-government sector without cumulative government deficit spending. The sovereign government via net spending (deficits) is the only entity that can provide the non-government sector with financial assets (net savings) and thereby simultaneously accommodate any net desire to save and hence eliminate unemployment.” ...
Well, Edward Harrison explains the macro economic concept and accounting behind it very nicely:
Barack Obama: “if we keep on adding to the debt… that could actually lead to a double-dip” - Credit Writedowns
They key statement here is:
I now would like to see this debunked (which I don't think is possible) or the national dialog should really change dramatically. IMO we need to focus on increasing consumer savings and reducing private sector debt (not currently attempted) in order to recreate a dynamic economy, hopefully with a concurrent reduction in the CAD. However, one accounting entry has to go up in order to make that possible if this SIMPLE formula is correct. If this isn't widely understood soon we are facing a much more severe deflationary spiral for all the wrong reasons.
Ya less then half........
They are more likely buying Pinto Beans
Central Banks Changing Gears, Looking to Increase Gold Reserves -- Seeking Alpha
What do these four countries have in common:
Brazil, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan
e. Better food than most of America?
yagij wrote:
LOL. Yep, everyone is doing it.
Anyway, off to the salt mines. L8R
nova wrote:
You just made me recall a photo blog I read a year or two back written by a couple that was moving into a neighborhood in hopes of helping its gentrification. Sadly, it involved a drug dealer and fornication at 2:00p in plain sight of the bloggers--across the street in fact.
.
I had almost forgotten about it until now...
why does it seem like we get a revpar report every couple of days?
Yup
Sin of avarice, Ben.
And so shall the Greedy be punished, too.
Boward,
Nope, sorry to piss you off but if the last two months hold together then I had a good year. I did not play the same game as most. My 401K made money every year for over a decade, rentals did good and savings did good. Every one who owes me money has paid up. That is what happens when you do win, win deals. So that doesn't play.
nova wrote:
Yet another tragedy that is much the blame of urban planners. The demand for unowned spaces makes for a sense of nospace where lawlessness can thrive.
and take this...
The Fed's lender of last resort authority would be limited to $4 trillion under a provision approved by the committee.
Yet another tragedy that is much the blame of urban planners.
Probably the same bunch that encouraged the Chinese to manipulate their currency.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Well, now I am missing a few things.
Who worked hard, Warren Buffett? He probably got bailed out more than anyone. Did he win? He said he just made an all-in bet, so it's too early to tell. He's lived well in the meantime. I would like much of my winnings to be given to the homeless and hungry--especially those willing and able to contribute work. I can't efficiently distribute it myself, and I trust the government more than an assortment of private charities. I fear fascism and single-party communism about equally.
shill wrote:
The article mentioned about 10 CB's. We're both just speculating right now. I don't see the US and Britain buying, so we may not have hit the highs yet. If you go by population, China and India CB's are understocked in glod.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I think you are being too unkind on urban planners. The main tenet of urban planning has been ignored by most cities and towns i.e. multi-use neighborhoods. The current system of having segregated residential and commercial neighborhoods is an incredible waste of resources. The infrastructure is under utilized and it requires far more investment in transit infrastructure than is necessary.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
No argument there. But lots of people didn't too, and many of them will be getting screwed too. In the end, it's all about the standard of living provided by the available jobs. And competing with the 3rd world for jobs, and 30 years of out-sourcing, isn't going to allow the teaming-masses of average people here live very well.
The "world is flat" people should have been smart enough to figure this out.
dum luk
Read that as a kid. Army Brat. Thought about seeing if silent attacts worked on my younger brothers
The Fox Fire books are great too.
Why would we ( The US ) buy Gold? we supposedly have 8000 tonnes?
But how much of that is real and not Tungsten filled.
Speaking of bulldozing houses....anyone hear if Ted Turner is still buying up all the land he can get his hands on in plain states. I know all the farmers were in a frenzy that crazy Ted was going to own whole states and kick everyone out and repopulate the prairie with buffalo. Now that is a nice dream.
josap wrote:
Now don't laugh but: condoms. And by condoms I mean lots of condoms. Plain latex, not lubricated or spermicided or ribbed or... just plain and thousands of them. First, they don't take up much space. the kind described properly stored last forever. They have lots of other uses in and around the bankerdome. When it comes time to trade... trust me them little gold foil trinkets will trade for real gold. [In the same vein latex gloves, unpowdered and some heavy duty nitrile gloves as well. Consider an antique reuseable hypodermic set as well.
Nah, I haven't thought about this at all.
one of the big problems with this line of reasoning while it might work in aggregate - is the equivalent of putting your feet in the ice box and head in the oven and declaring you have an average temperature. Sure private savings go up - but they are not evenly distributed and the process of doing that increases the savings in a small number of people leaving an even larger number in debt.
If we are going to get a new economic model we first have to start with new measurements that tell us what is happening at the base of the pyramid not just the aggregate of the pyramid.
More on China’s Faux GDP Data | The Big Picture
Yogi,
Can't stand the fact that old Warren had a advantage. The fear of Paris Hilton is so damming to keep you under thumb. Trust the government the ones we paid to be watch dog over this mess? The one who has corruption all over the place. How much money do you have in your freezer? Did I tell you I started pumping gas for a living? You know got paid one of those not able to live on wages? It wasn't hard it was hard work. Americans generally avoid that and the ones who do and learn to be smarter can go quite far climbing the ladder.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
The problem is determining who is REALLY working hard and honestly BEFORE the onset of reality (like the one now). Don't forget, only two years ago the banksters were being worshipped as gods (the honest and hard workin bidness leaders of the greatest country that ever existed) and then (suddenly) it was discovered to be all on borrowed money (which two years ago was also a sign of "goodness"). That's the problem with morals, they change.
I you don't get the aggregate right you cannot make the correct decision, it is as simple as that.
crazyv wrote:
The problem is that urban planners are the problem. Their meddling even in the mixed-use revival has resulted in uniformly subpar results. Top down doesn't work for cities or economies.
Hope this helps with the speculation...
THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST » » 6 REASONS RICHARD RUSSELL WANTS TO OWN GOLD
NRA,
Yep and it does not please me to pony up for this mess. This one is flat stupid. My choices are Laugh Cry or get mad. I am kind of doing all three.
RD,
I think the gas lamps will make the horde of rats that come out at sundown look just like cute scampering puppies to the lost euro tourists.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Got to disagree here. Find one family, nieghbor, student and help that person/family. It doesn't have to be cash, a box of food toward the end of the month, books, pay for an after school tutor, gift card to the thrift store. Pick an angel off the stupid tree at the mall and do someting lasting if possible, not just a toy.
nova wrote:
If they attract a Thai restaurant then both the puppy and rat problem will disappear.
crazyv wrote:
Santa Monica has been trying this. The results are:
1. Noisy dirty residential due to location in commercial areas
2. Unsuitable commercial facilities to support residential use (no markets, no gas stations, mostly fashion outlets)
3. Horrific traffic congestion and grossly inadequate parking for both residential and commercial users.
"then (suddenly) it was discovered to be all on borrowed money "
If I could see there was some thing not right back in the 1990's then the folks in charge knew they where playing beyond the parameters of reality.
If they attract a Thai restaurant then both the puppy and rat problem will disappear.
+1
sm_landlord, I'm glad you said it. Now I don't have to.
I'd add that mixed use existed prior to soi disant planners, usually to superior effect.
Wonder if danse macabre is coming back into style yet. I can feel it in the air.
josap,
+10 happens around here a lot.
crazyv wrote:
But it still comes down to supply and demand - there is more supply of multi-use neighborhoods than demand. Some people want multi-use neighborhoods, some don't. Groupthink is the urban planning mistake - urban planning today overemphasizes multi-use neighborhoods; urban planning 40 years ago overemphasized segregated-use neighborhoods.
Eric wrote:
Now it is, but Magic 8-ball say "going down".
Rob Dawg wrote:
Some of the safest, cleanest, nicest places I've been in the SE US have had some of the most egregious, erroneous, and blatant abuses of due process and other basic legal rights as well. Apparently, it does keep the locals and the riff-raff in line.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Said much better than I.
"central government officials have ordered state enterprises to buy fleets of vehicles and that these businesses are storing them in parking lots across the country."
Americans print new dollars nobody wants and Chinese produce stuff nobody wants. This looks real good.
I'd say the 2009 Main Darwin Award aka "Which nation is really trying to fuck things up even more" goes to BOTH of them!
Tomorrow - what drives ?
Bloomberg.com:
Economic Calendar
Bloomberg.com:
Economic Calendar
Vonbek777 wrote:
Basically already did it in Montana; has so much bison meat that he had to start his own restaurant chain to get rid of it all. That joint is the bee's knees, Joe Bob says check it out.
shill wrote:
It doesn't. We know a few CB's are low on gold. The larger hodlers US, Germany, Italy, Britain... what are their CB's doing with gold? Buying, selling or standing pat? We know Britain sold low...
Now it is, but Magic 8-ball say "going down".
Don't like the way the market's moving? Just wait a few minutes.....
Rob Dawg wrote:
But, the only alternative to top down is developers purchasing city politicians and doing whatever they feel like, urban planning was the liberal attempt to "fix" the smart amoral scumbag developers (in this case) from having the top-down upper hand. Of course, it didn't work, but that's not the urban-planners fault.
North of Montana in Santa Monica aint so bad.
Nice walk to Blue Plate or Babalu for lunch. Run at the beach....
Eric wrote:
Heh, you said it - it's like the weather in Hawaii. No wonder HFT seemed like a good idea.
Crazy Ted has screwed up the tax base for a hell of a lot of Ranchers also in Nebraska.
I thought London was real low due to the Chinese saying they wanted what they had stored there? and come to find out a lot of it was fake.
Ted owns allot of New Mexico as well.
MrBeach wrote:
Agree it's nice, as long as you never have to leave - other than Montana for food or a walk to the beach. Just don't try to drive anywhere.
Lobbyist, what you're missing is that if insiders get away with massive cheating, the marginally employed and sometime homeless don't have a fair chance, because wealth is limited. Same if one group prints dollars and the other works for them. Saddam Hussein worked hard and "won", until our government intervened. Maybe his own people would have intervened at some point, we'll never know.
It was once widely believed that any interest on a loan was immoral, but then people realized the lender/saver should be compensated for the risk. Certain arbitrary rates were still banned as usury, under the notion that they couldn't ever be "fair". States like New York can still have usury limits, but they can't stop South Dakota from free-riding the loan-shark business with FDIC-insured cash.
NOTaREALmerican -
It is the fault of urban planners. They pretend to an expertise they are not in possession of. Sound familiar?
You would have loved Montana Ave. back in the 60's.
US Gold - About Gold: World Gold Holdings
Wait until he reintroduces the wind powered prairie schooner as a means for public transportation.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Remember the Sweet 16 malt shop?
Glod I'm old.
I've lived in Santa Monica for a while - worked downtown. Never left SM at all. In fact, I tried not to cross the 405. Ever.
Wait until he reintroduces the wind powered prairie schooner as a means for public transportation.
Then he can get Siouxed
Ahh, the good old days of living in the 90403. "My Father's Office." Mmmmmm.
anyway on topic: No one has mentioned the municipal impact of lower RevPAR; hotel txes. NJ has some in the 21% range, NYC 17%+ surcharges, 12-15% is very common. This is going to leave a big budget hole in the cities.
burnside wrote:
There's no other alternative. The people that purchase the politicians win OR the bureaucracy formed to slow down the smart amoral scumbags wins. That's the only two choice ya got.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
There were less people in the '60's, of course it was better.
How about POP? Pacific Ocean Park?
I set you up for that one. lol
shill wrote:
Perhaps. But the article you linked said Britain sold lots of glod when the price was low.
But read it again. We have no urban planners worthy of the term. They prove this every day, and at great expense.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Well there's always the rule of law rather than the rules of men. I bet if that were ever tried it would work pretty good for a while at least.
burnside wrote:
perhaps some of you who decry all this top down planning might want to do live in a number of third world countries where there is a very small hand of government. Afghanistan might be good place to start along with Somalia. I think you will find you wish completely fulfilled- virtually no government to speak of. I find that most of those who complain about government are the biggest free loaders of all. The South west would be all but uninhabitable but for the Federal governments investment in water,
Rob Dawg wrote:
Haven't we btdt fantasy? No law exists to regulate the smart amoral scumbags from eliminating the laws that they don't like.
I spent a few summers in Santa Monica with my cousin. They had a little tiny house off Wilshire Blvd
Yogi,
I do get it. All of this was to be overseen and not let get out of control by our government. Soon it may be us against our government but there are some at the top that are not cheaters just like all poor are not good folks either. The power shift was given away when the people went for the bling. They now cry foul. Just like any one who wants government health care is giving away their freedom for free. All very simple and unemotional but emotion sells easier in the US.
Gambling as an industry is growing: global revenues increased by 24% in the four years from 2004, totalling some $358 billion in 2008. Revenues from online betting are a small share of the total, at $20.2 billion, but are increasing fast. However the recession has hit the industry in the past year or so. Casino revenues in Nevada, for example, fell by 8.9% in September compared with a year ago.
Gambling revenues: Hitting the jackpot | The Economist
burnside wrote:
You make them sound like space aliens. Do "they" exist, then? If "they" don't, they the ONLY choice you have is the smart amoral scumbags purchasing the politicians and doing whatever they like.
nova wrote:
I have fond childhood memories, but it was pretty run down even back then. AFAIK, They never even tried to rebuild it after it burned down.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
LOL! Urban planners can get bought off just as easily an any other politician. My ex is a civil engineer, says it happens every day on the job. She has to review every blueprint, mostly to make sure of water and safety clearances, says the planners and the developers are two peas in a pod - both sides blame each other for the mistakes she finds, but she knows they were made in agreement.
crazyv:
Let me be clear - I said nothing of abandoning zoning or building standards. No straw men, please?
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
When people don't have health care they'll give away their freedoms. Just like people give away their "freedoms" when trrrrssss are a-threatin'.
Debts payment I suppose....well its been fun as always I have to go make some money so I can buy more Beans.....G-day all. Pleasure as always.
For he record all my holdings broke even today....Our Markets are Glorious.
We already have measurements that discuss the distribution of the Wealth, wages. Gini coefficient is a good measure.
It is just that from a policy point of view we do not want to look at those measurements.
Additionally, it is as if our society has been convinced either due to historical reasons or propaganda that the American spirit is all about "attaining" the dream of getting rich. The moment the distribution of GDP or wealth or wages comes into play, we immediately throw socialist or communist around.
As a military brat, I can't even begin to process this article...
White House aides: No Afghan decision before Thanksgiving
The last line:"He got a huge cheer when he told them he was increasing military pay. "That's what you call an applause line," he said, before boarding his jet and taking off at 4:11 p.m."
crazyv wrote:
You confuse civil engineering for urban planning. The two aren't the same, more often they are at odds.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Not really. They resemble academic economists.
Charles Kiting wrote:
Of course, the smart amoral scumbags ALWAYS win. All you can do is try to avoid them. But, at least some cities might have honest planning departments. There at least SOME chances. Otherwise, the smart amoral scumbags WILL purchase the politicians. That's a given.
Lets see, Sweet sixteen rings a bell and I remember a place called Snug Harbor. There was a theater on Montana that was never busy on a Sunday. Worked at the gas station at Wilshire and 26th. Close to the Ball, Across from the Horn. My first business was at 17 and SM Blvd. Memories.
burnside wrote:
Damn! Another keyboard tango uniform.
burnside wrote:
So, some planning is ok? Just not planning you don't like. That's understandable.
You're welcome, Dawg. Heh.
NaRm - see Kiting, supra.
POP. I remember it being seedy and loving it. My cousin, who was blonde, blue eyed, and a surfer took me everywhere. I was the geeky cuz from the sticks. Jeebus, CA had a golden glow to me. My Uncle had a place at Redondo Beach and a 57? T-bird. All those girls with straight hair....
burnside wrote:
Well, then your ONLY choice is smart amoral scumbag developers doing whenever they like after purchasing politicians. That doesn't work all that well either.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
That's the Aero Theater. It has been restored and shows movies occasionally. They cannot operate it as a commercial theater because there is no place for patrons to park. So they show old movies when the other businesses are closed and there is some parking available.
All of the gas stations are gone. The last one that went now has an empty Blockbuster sitting on the property.
burnside wrote:
so how are you going to develop those- I guess in the absence of qualified urban planners just pick people out of a hat?
I'm late to this thread and apologies if others have responded similarly.
Vonbeck: Again you provide illuminating thoughts and some meat to chew on. Thank you. My experience/perspective in working with people on the front lines in my career is that of living life, aging and then death is absent of much of that dignity as you elude to. Part of the sickness in our society is that win/lose; someone must win at the expense of someone else or there are no spoils and no victory. Religion failed to keep up with the modern world in a modern way which addresses our challenges in every day life.
Our frenetic and quickly changing world leaves many behind, some are comforted by religion, that is something I would never be in favor or limiting unless it interferes with my ability to live my life with dignity. (I have issues, big ones, with organized religion but that another discussion) Many people I think (more and more now) realize they are expendable cogs in a wheel easily replaced, no matter how vigilant/hard working or even adaptive they are. Fear of job loss gives employers avenues to diminish that person more. As we see too often, that stress can bring about tragic results. Stress in the human is necessary to produce, too much stress is counter productive and leads to illnesses, poor work, poor family life, physical and mental strife. A highly mobile society provides little incentive for establishing connections in a community.
Some civilizations and communities allow for a place for everyone. No, not everyone is special, but each has a purpose which allows them dignity. All people, everywhere, want and need the same things in life to thrive. We each have something to offer, even those who are mentally different or physically unable to perform at par with others. Allowing each person to contribute as productive people and members of community is positive, enriching and again provides a dignity even for elders who today are horrifically marginalized in our society. People are whole and complex creatures which require nurturing on more than one level from childhood, through rearing families, to involvement and interests which allows outlets to provide personal growth and then on to their later stages in life which is rich in experience to be shared.
This is off the cuff but will provide me some wonderful food for thought later this evening.
Charles Kiting wrote:
how do you get to civil engineering from my comment? The comment is directed at all those who decry government and think that government is the enemy.
A noble goal, but not practical for me. For one thing, I don't have a spare bedroom, so it would mean making out a check to their landlord, who might be making extra profit. There are several hundred thousand homeless people in my city. Some are crazy, violent, or diseased, and need to be approached by professionals.
I do volunteer work and support hand-picked charities, but I also want to be taxed to pay for social workers. It's not all goodwill: if they are starving and cold they will attack my family in the street and give us cholera, pneumonia, or flu.
sm_landlord wrote:
That reads so Mad Max. Guess the truth can be a scary as fiction.
crazyv wrote:
Santa Monica solved this by making zoning moot. Now, if you need a permit to build something, you have to apply for an individual Conditional Use Permit. The usual price is you have to pay for improvements to adjacent city property. If you want to modify rain gutters, you need to install a cesspool for the rain gutters to drain in to. Who knew that rain was a pollutant?
Make for lots of work for planners, because that have to approve every single permit that gets issued, whether it's allowed by the vestigial zoning or not.
crazyv wrote:
You aren't reading what is being written. Urban planning as practiced in the US is a tragedy with decades of failure as its legacy. Cabrini Greens anyone?
My last visit was in 2002 but didn't have lots of time to tour all around. It was amazing to me how some little hole in the wall places where still there and most of it disappeared with things like super markets with three levels including parking! My old shop was still there pretty much in original form but was a closed down Isuzu dealer. I could not afford to swing the $150K to buy the property! Pocket change now. Great place and time.
Reuters.com
Condoms Dawg Ollivauw your a genius,
where are you going to set up the new foundation anyway?
crazyv wrote:
Which commenter is decrying government in total? Civil engineers are part of government, so are urban planners. Point out the comment that implies both are the enemy.
tg wrote:
At "the opposite end of the galaxy" in sociopolitical terms meaning in plain sight here in Dawgifornia.
Three Laws Safe!
JP wrote:
This assumes that someone would borrow money for no other purpose but to pay salaries, which is not the case, at least for businesses that intend to stay in business. The idea is something more like this:
With this model, the opportunity cost is much greater than the reduced $10billion might otherwise imply, but i guess this is hard for a Socialist to understand. BTW, nothing personal meant by that;
People who badmouth government jobs probably never tried to serve the public or couldn't hack it. They expect others to organize their society, protect them and the borders, teach their kids, inspect their food and medicine, run the criminal justice system, come up with perfect zoning and planning,... for shitty wages, all while they get a free ride.
If you want stereotyping, have some.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
You are doing your part, probably more than your part.
Everyone has a different motivator, you want to feel that your family is save - there is no better reason in the world to do what you have chosen to do.
josap wrote:
Just to be on the safe side, I suggest you keep you mouth closed while you're looking up at the ponies.
crazyv -
Civil engineers have long been responsible for setting uniform standards. I don't know what expertise is involved in urban planning. A decade after the ribbon cutting, their projects tend to speak for themselves.
yagij wrote:
Unfortunately, the punishment is rarely meted out evenly, i.e., if you're the dude you're screwed, no matter what. Almost always, though I am aware of a few exceptions.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Never heard of still, huh?
nova wrote:
My wife is from Thailand (she's ethnically Chinese), and the Thai don't eat dog (or rat as far as I know). The Vietnamese (and most likely the Cambodians) do, along with the people that live in China. During the Vietnam War, some Vietnamese refugees came to live near one of the US bases in Thailand and went into business making meatballs. Pretty soon, folks started noticing that the neighborhood dogs were disappearing, and it didn't take long to figure out where they were going. BTW, the GIs called those meat ball monkeyballs, for example, one might say I had a bowl of monkeyball soup at the market today-
Vonbek777 wrote:
He'll probably wait until he thinks folks are engrossed in the Holidays to do it. Good plan-
jp
thats what i was wondering too might hurt a bit and cause some house damage. cats and dogs are bad enough but ponies.????