im curious to see how the market reacts to this,green or red?

ytl
are you saying that they bit off more than they can chew?

Ya but yesterday the Builders said...........................................

Terry, I can't quite see that, either. It doesn't look like a trend. Just noise at present.

homedad43
how to do that when big daddy is saying "here take biggers bites and do it faster,so you can get more and more on your plate"?

“I don’t see anything in the report that suggests there’s any real inflation flare-up,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “The Fed is comfortably on hold.”

Economists forecast the consumer price index would rise 0.2 percent, according to the median of 78 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a decline of 0.2 percent to a rise of 0.5 percent.

Lets see 0.2% increase in the core rate is about 2.5% annualized inflation- this at time of major wage decreases and unemployment at 10.2%. Under those circumstances should it not be much lower? Is this not a case of the dog that didn't bark?

The core index was forecast to rise 0.1 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey.

im curious to see how the market reacts to this,green or red?

I'll take "run stops on both sides" for $2,000 please, Alex...

DeLong Says Odds of Another Great Depression Reach 5%; I Assess Odds of Various Scenarios

Economist Brad DeLong, Department of Economics, U.C. Berkeley, is getting increasingly pessimistic. DeLong says: Chance of Great Depression Now 5%...

From Mish:

• The US is in the midst of the steepest decline in home price on record.
  • Short-term treasury yields went negative and are still close to zero.
  • Long-term treasury yields hit record lows.
  • Foreclosures hit record highs.
  • The stock market had the biggest collapse since the Great Depression.
  • U-6 unemployment is a whopping 16.8% and still rising.
  • The PPI (producer price index) had the biggest drop in 59 years.
  • The CPI is at -1.3% is declining at the fastest pace since 1950 according to government calculations. The real CPI by my calculations is -6.2% (See What's the Real CPI? for details).

"Many banks are facing possible multi-notch downgrades to their hybrid bonds following a change in the methodology used by Moody’s Investors Services."

FT.com / Capital Markets - Banks face hit from bond downgrades

are you saying that they bit off more than they can chew?

they have bitten off more than they can chew, but it's not all that I'm saying. I think part of the problem is that they're doing conflicting things.
For example: they want to encourage increased housing prices while at the same time encouraging increased housing production. They need to EITHER strive for elevated housing prices OR increased housing production, but not both.

I know that the real reason behind this is that they want to "repair" (what a joke) the bank's balance sheets, but even then it becomes clear that many of the actions are contradictory.

What will they report on next? This morning, the sun was spotted rising over the horizon.

If it's Obama....... he'll promise to have it rise in the West.

Next year.

When it's a priority.

Unless it's no longer campaign season.

Which is Worse:

Well, we'll see how much pull the homebuyer tax credit has left in it, now that it's been extended. With seasonal adjustment, the single family starts numbers could very easily rise.

It's a wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww shaped recovery

The Very Best Short Summary of Adam Smith's Life and Work, by Gavin Kennedy:

A ‘society of strangers’ is a commercial society which Smith identifies in the Wealth of Nations as one where 'everyman is a merchant'. A commercial society's coherence - its social bonds - do not depend on love and affection. You can coexist socially with those to whom you are emotionally indifferent. As Smith famously said:

it is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. We address ourselves not to their humanity but to their self-love and never talk to them of our own necessities but of their advantages. Nobody but a beggar chuses to depend chiefly upon the benevolence of his fellow-citizens

Nothing in this means that Smith is denying the virtuousness of benevolence. When Smith came to write the Wealth of Nations he made it clear that the ‘wealth’ lay in the well-being of the people. This covered not only their material prosperity but also their moral welfare. Accordingly he thought to be in poverty is to be in a miserable condition and commerce is to be praised for improving human life.

An interesting read...........

Imagine how long the Great Depression would have lasted if the people of the time had all bought about the most expensive thing on the planet, with a scintilla of thought about how to pay for it?

The hoi ploy of way back when, hardly participated in the stock market, and aside from a localized bubble in Fla., that was it for housing enthusiasts.

My shelves are full, the ones in the basement that is.

Xinco, get with the program. All news is good news and that is an order.

Brown Attacks Bankers Bonuses

Here's my favorite headline of the day from my side of the pond. I've never actually watched a country commit collective suicide before.

It's not that limiting bankers bonuses is good or bad.... there are lots of arguments either way. It's that the UK has nothing left to export. Christiano Ronaldo, Xabi Alonso, and Beckham were the last things they had of value, and they're now gone. This is like watching all the kamikaze pilots sail into the ocean short of the aircraft carrier, but simultaneously.

I assume the shaded areas on the charts will be extending.

volker, I suspect the recovery - if you may call it that - will be excessively dull. Though every uptick will be accompanied by great trumpetings. MSM might look into moderating their optimism a little, lest they wear it out.

Shine on you Jamie Dimon wrote:

Quick antecdote - my coffee was ~8% more expensive this morning and the price of the Sox tickets I split with some friends also went up about 8%.

one more - went to buy some tile. Was told by the store that there is a price increase next month on some of the tiles we were considering. I think the weaker dollar is starting to have some impact. Plus there is less interest earned on the dollars accumulated exporting to the United States.

*Fast Retailing Co., the operator of Uniqlo stores, started the battle in March with pairs at $11. *
.

Street market in HK price: three pairs for HKD100 (13 bucks).

This is for about 8 oz per yard denim, but still . . .

My wife is telling me womans clothes an accessories have gone up by over 20% in the last year.

Oh, thanks for all the kind words on the last thread. I had to run my kid to school earlier than I thought.

As the coppers can literally print money like nobody can, broke cities have no other choice than to go draconian on people's rights in search of revenue, sadly.

A chiaroscuro effect.

Anak wrote:

Street market in HK price: three pairs for HKD100 (13 bucks).

This is for about 8 oz per yard denim, but still . . .

No wonder a traveling Taiwanese tailor can sell you 5 tailored suits for $200.
For the longest time in Canada there were no cheap blue jeans. Then they finally cracked the $50 barrier. But according to some retailer websites they're back above it again? I was hoping they would be into the $30s by now

a soccer player?........LOL.......nope. I don't get out much......my next guess would have been some kind of shirt or dress designer......

$12.105 is the debt ceiling

so if you say that they bit off more than they can chew and their left hand doesnt know what the right hand is doing and they are running in 500 directions at once, would that be about it?

it's a start!

unfortunately, I would also add that many of the actors are corrupt and/or ignorant.

we might get somewhere if they were competent and knowledgeable and honest, while at the same time biting off more than they can chew, running around in all directions, and not knowing what the right/left hands are doing.

but when you add in that corruption, ignorance, stupidity, and incompetence... sheesh.
that might be about it!

The Japanese have been nuts about jeans for a long time now.

I remembering reading that the ne plus ultra of Levi's, was a new-never worn 1932 pair, worth $100k, in Nippon.

An Impossible Task

I don't think the Chamber of Commerce could possibly hire a "respected economist" because any economist working for this group would lose whatever respect they might have:

For those of you who are unaware of the actual meaning of the term "begging the question", see the above link for a perfect example. And in the Economist too!? Hu'da thunk it-

Those Starbucks price cuts are deceiving, mostly on small sized drinks while the large size had a price increase. You know us 'Mericans want the biggest size available. BTW - egg nog is 4.99/gal this year....before adding "holiday cheer"...ouch!

Total housing starts were at 529 thousand (SAAR) in October, down 10.6% from the revised September rate, and up from the all time record low in April of 479 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959). - CR

The monthly SAAR data is noisy and misleading. Consider. We've had 381K starts year to date (10.9% less than the same period last year). If we take the Nov & Dec data from 2008 and reduce it by 10.9%, we can project 2009 annual starts of 432K.

Starts of 432K would be 9.8% lower than the claimed 479K all time low for starts.

Bottom line, housing is still in the crapper and so is the eCONomy.

ok, it's a personal favorite to keep track of:

"Target (TGT) was cut to “Neutral” by Goldman Sachs (GS) after the discount retailer yesterday missed Q3 sales estimates by half a billion dollars. Target shares are down 87 cents this morning, roughly 1.8%, at $47.90, after shedding 3% yesterday."
Morning Retail Movers: BJ’s Falls, Target Slips (Again), Pery Ellis Shines - Stocks To Watch Today - Barrons.com

angry saver - good analysis.

Obama: Too much debt could fuel double-dip recession

All of this talk about a double dip is meant to take our minds off the fact we're really in a depression-
Clever!

when the broken windows start punctuating the scene?

.....no prob. JD. They'll be changed out for plywood

ytl
im adding ignorupts in place of "they" in last post. will that get it?
only thing is we will have to teach everyone what "ignorupts" means

gabyjan wrote:

im curious to see how the market reacts to this,green or red?

Don't you realize, a smaller increase in supply can only mean higher prices for existing homes. Since the number is better than January, it must mean that demand is stabilizing.

Green shoots FTW!

But seriously, the only thing you need to look at these days to determine green or red is $USD. Dollar down = green. Dollar up = red. Until it stops.

does that even matter? they'll just raise it anyway.

at shill: my apologies again for offending.

@ YTL all good old thread and we move on m8, my sincere apology also....I think I too will leave medical opinions off of the board from here on in.

Finally, some good news about housing.

If builders get "income" from tax breaks, it causes less damage than building homes in saturated markets. I just wish the incentives to take down vacant homes in poor condition would get moving.

Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:

But seriously, the only thing you need to look at these days to determine green or red is $USD. Dollar down = green. Dollar up = red. Until it stops.

The monotony of that trade is amazing- makes one wonder whether most of the trading is being driven by black box algorithms? If so is it possible that hopium of the masses buying stocks is actually making the dollar weaker than it should be?

some investor guy wrote:

If builders get "income" from tax breaks, it causes less damage than building homes in saturated markets. I just wish the incentives to take down vacant homes in poor condition would get moving.

That might be the only good outcome of the proposed "cap and trade" bill-

Builders will say anything... they are getting a tax rebate of EPIC proportions. All good (for them).

Let's take the bottoms up approach to a new level. It's time for the government to give 1st time buyers a down payment of 20% towards the purchase price to stimulate them almost like an electric prod would do, movin, movin, movin. And for the trickle downers, let's give the home builders another billion or two each to do what they do best.. We are the champions at building houses. Nobody does it better. That's who we are for glods sake. Maybe even write some songs about this for Prechter to interpret for us.

gaby:
I like it, although it needs 2 r's.
ignorrupts.

the only other alternative of corrupt/ignorant would be corrants, which looks too much like currants. and I like currants. (and currents too).

thus, ingorrupts it is. you've created a part of English!

once you add in "ingorrupts" then I think you've encapsulated my argument quite well. unfortunately, with how fast things are changing I may have to add other adjectives and invectives!

Seriously people, if Uniqlo ever evolves to expand overseas beyond just token flagship stores, there will be american clothing retailers strewn in the streets. Their fashion and style is awesome compared to the dumpy shit our retailers are pumping out there.

some investor guy wrote:

My wife is telling me womans clothes an accessories have gone up by over 20% in the last year.

Where on earth is she shopping? Maybe actual furs from formerly live animals?
My wife is finding all kinds of things which are less expensive. Clothes, purses, shoes

Doesn't nova live in the DC area? No depr/rec-ession there-

Don't be a wuss-

Shine on you Jamie Dimon (profile) wrote on Wed, 11/18/2009 - 7:24 am
BTW - egg nog is 4.99/gal this year....before adding "holiday cheer"...ouch!

I think this justifies leaving eggnog off the list of flex-fuels.

Noggoline, indeed!

Don't be too hard on yourself, you're all you've got.