Everyone is talking about V, U, W or L shaped economic path. But did it occur to anyone that it could be lightening shaped
\
*\/\
****\
***** \
Best Black Swan wishes.

They need a massive jobs program but, as I've said here before, I don't think it's politically do-able.

Why wasn't the the last stimulus package - the one with the inefficient housing tax credit and the "gift" to homebuilders - why wasn't that focused on jobs?

Well CR, it obviously worked! A new, mostly unsold condo building in LA, a former Corus owned property, is raising prices saying "the market has firmed".

Curbed LA: Bucking All Trends, Koreatown's Solair Raises Its Prices

Wow, talk about timing!

• A transportation bill that could cost up to $500 billion

Might as well accelerate the currency crisis.

• A tax credit for businesses that create jobs

Just like C4C, it'll mostly go to jobs that would've already been created.

• Assistance to state governments ...

Black hole.

• Low-interest loans for small businesses

Woooo, more debt! Gotta love it!!!

• Another extension of unemployment benefits ...

Might as well extend them indefinitely if you want to keep the peace.

• An extension of health-insurance subsidies for the jobless

See prior answer.

• A transaction tax on over-the-counter trades in unregulated "dark markets"

Isn't OTC and "dark markets" oxymoronic?

Why wasn't the the last stimulus package - the one with the inefficient housing tax credit and the "gift" to homebuilders - why wasn't that focused on jobs?

That one's easy.

Congress knows who butters its bread, and it ain't Joe Sixpack.

They better do something. You got people grazing acorns and poaching deer. You got a real hungry people rate. A lot of those people are kids.

By Amy Goldstein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, November 17, 2009

The nation's economic crisis has catapulted the number of Americans who lack enough food to the highest level since the government has been keeping track, according to a new federal report, which shows that nearly 50 million people -- including almost one child in four -- struggled last year to get enough to eat.

Hunger a growing problem in America, USDA reports - washingtonpost.com

$500 billion. High speed rail from SD to Seattle?

cool link Basel Too. thanks.

they have it figured to the penny!

sneering nihilist wrote:

debt 12 trillion

It took just under 8 months to go from 11 trillion to 12 trillion.

I'll take the under on 8 months to 13 trillion!

What about equipment tax credit for business! Accelerated business CRE depreciation! Reduced Business taxation! Reduce the cost of doing business in the US.

Ahhh. More debt, more command economy. Wow, four words to hit all three of Krugman's banishment points. A record?

When did our leaders forget that government employment positions are the ultimate anti-jobs?

poic wrote:

They had a big brochure showing how the area was going to be revitalized and mentioned a new high speed train station slated to replace the bus terminal near Fremont and Market.

This is why Michael Hudson's proposal for higher capital gains taxes on house sales make sense. The house itself creates no value, it is the land which is of value and the land gets its value from the improvements which the government makes around it.

methinks they'll have to raise the debt ceiling this week, unless the Administration uses the $200B remaining from TARP to free up some space.

"I'll take the under on 8 months to 13 trillion! "

No problem there. Compound interest works both ways.

Why not? They are lapping it up at 3.3% for 10 years, we should issue as much as possible.

Will high speed train hobos carry iPhones?

ghostfaceinvestah wrote:

wanna bet any new stimulus has some kind of incentive for Americans to go further into debt? maybe C4C III, or an even longer extension of the home buying tax credits?

It's not even a contest. Obviously, hundreds of billions more, maybe trillions, will continue to be poured into keeping asset prices high, especially homes. At this point, maintaining high home prices is as much an integral part of our political fabric as preserving our national security.

josap,

This would also cause job destruction to airlines and airplane, auto manufacturing, road services. Progress or trade?

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

but I think there is still a chance to buy a (1,2) year intermission
1-2 years?!? $10K here we come!

Coming to theaters soon... "Porkulus 2 - the quest for pork" This time no pet project will be left behind..
~splat

Why not build 600 nuclear power plants?

sneering nihilist wrote:

mach 15 at, like, 90,000 feet... yee haw!

Would that be carrying money into or out of the country?

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

Why not build 600 nuclear power plants?

Makes too much sense.

It will take decades to unwind the public fear of Nuke power before that can happen. Americans are slow learners on some subjects. That is why we are in this mess.

Pork for foodies like me:

Eliminate all existing agricultural subsidies and double and divert them to production of unusual and tasty local varieties of produce and victuals.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

Thais why we are in this mess.

Be reasonable. You can't blame it ALL on the Thais. A lot of it, sure.

You know, I wish some of you folks would take these discussions a little more seriously.

Unemployment is headed towards 11% and, when you've got so many long-term unemployed, that's when people start blowing their brains out.

In short, there's a lot of suffering going on out there, and there's going to be even more.

Tax, Spend, Waste,Tax, Spend,Waste, Tax, Spend, Waste keep repeating!
Send more jobs to India and China faster.
Keep shoveling money to AIX, GMAC, Fannie, Freddie, Citi, GM etc.
The US is doomed, what the hell is in the water in Washington, DC?
When will a middle class tax revolt begin??

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

Where's the $100B for energy independence?

The does not abide. AFAICT they have heavy bets on elevated energy prices. But it isn't just the squid. Think about the phrase. Independence. This concept is antithetical to the current power elites' plans. A solar rooftop means they can't turn off you air conditioner during high use periods. You didn't think the smart grid was about better cheaper did you?

Well, it took 45 days to go from 11.9 to 12.0. The statutory limit is $12.104 trillion, but being this close reminds me of when I count on float in hopes my checking account balance stays positive.

More than a couple of good ideas:
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com:80/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0911/document/us1109.pdf

mp wrote:

You know, I wish some of you folks would take these discussions a little more seriously.

I think the beneficiaries of the $787bn and other spending/giveaway programs need to seriously consider what they have accepted. Free money might cost them more than they ever imagined in the end

mp wrote:

You know, I wish some of you folks would take these discussions a little more seriously.
Unemployment is headed towards 11% and, when you've got so many long-term unemployed, that's when people start blowing their brains out.
In short, there's a lot of suffering going on out there, and there's going to be even more.

look, mp, i think we understand. however, we aren't going to fix the problem with more government-induced debt binges that hand out funny money for "jobs". it just isn't going to happen.

wake me when the talk turns to "shrink-to-fit" government, abolishment of the IRS, abolishment of the Fed. i'll start to believe, then.

CalculatedRisk:

You asked why the last stimulus wasn't focused on jobs. I can answer your question with one of your charts.

Pull out the chart that shows the job losses compared to other recessions.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SvQmqFmXogI/AAAAAAAAGvE/YQrQHOu9KBU/s1600-h/EmploymentRecessionsOct.jpg

Now roll back in time.. back when the $787B package was written and passed. You'll see that unemployment was tracking to the 1990 and 2001 recession during this time period.

Now you have an opportunity give out $787B in pork and just wait for the jobs to come back like they did in 2001 and 1990. Then take credit for the stimulus working. A WIN-WIN for the incumbents (I have no doubt that Republicans would have done the same thing).

MP,

I agree but this is the mother of all stupid that has occurred. I also wonder why the hell people are not crazy mad with the government past and present.

"mp (profile) wrote on Tue, 11/17/2009 - 6:11 pm
reply ignore user
You know, I wish some of you folks would take these discussions a little more seriously."

Three people at my company commited suicide during the layoff period at the height of the crash last year, including one in my department.

I know I use my joking as a emotional valve for what I see happening around me.

mp wrote:

Unemployment is headed towards 11%...

UE is headed to 13.5% It always has and we won't get capitulation and thus resolution until then. The cost of trying to avoid 11% is exactly why we'll go to 13.5%. It just amazes me that at every turn we've managed to chose the least optimal response. Willful incompetence is too kind.

We shouldn't subsidize the failed industries of the past; we should focus Federal dollars on the growth industries that will create jobs in the future.

Tax Credits for Lobbyists who hire former Congressman (and their family members): creating jobs that count (to Congressman)

MLM wrote:

I wrote a relatively large check to a bankruptcy attorney for a relative today.

OUCH!!! My sympathies.

No matter how well we here prepare ourselves, there's likely lots of extended family that has not. Scary.

we should focus Federal dollars on the growth industries that will create jobs in the future.

The problem is.. most of the growth industries seem to be in China
~splat

we are totally effed
yep

barfly wrote:

perhaps you aren't old enough to remember that it was instituted, in the first place,to keep school children from being hit in the dark on their way to school -

why do you want to ban trick or treating?
gimme a break, I walked to school and all I hear about on the internet is school buses and SUV pickup
strap some reflectors and bike lights on them, if they are old enough to walk themselves but not smart enough to avoid getting run over by walking on the road

DST has no leg to stand on. Especially since it is known to increase car accidents at the time of switchover

Loved traveling by TGV in France and Switzerland; Just lay out train tracks adjacent to interstate, between metros. I will take the train for distances <= 500m, always!

nova wrote:

EHP,
No kids huh?

no. he obviously doesn't like the sun. OH, riiighht. BC. sorry about that, man.

"gimme a break, I walked to school and all I hear about on the internet is school buses and SUV pickup"

I walked both ways uphill, barefoot, in the snow. Then went home and got beaten before heading off to my night gig in the coal mines.

YouTube - Monty Python - Four Yorkshiremen

The ship is sinking. Congress is working to cover their butts. That is all this has ever really been about. Looting + plausible deniability.

Do you really think that adding a bunch more UNPRODUCTIVE jobs will help anything?

do we get to count the jobs at the new GM plants in China? That is our money, right?

UE is headed to 13.5%

Personally, I think it may go much higher than that, but what's the hurry?

Oxtail wrote:

Let's look at the bright side. By the time we get our first $2 trillion deficit, it's be in (even more)worthless future dollars!

Amen. By the time this is over, the sales taxes collected in Jersey in one year will pay off all the debt created before the year 2000.

What kind of job program can be created that will pay people to sit at a desk and make at least 25k a year?

Are we betting our future on Jersey's success now? doom, doomer, doomiest.

I MUST SAY... given the outpouring of gallows humor here today it's obvious that a fair measure of the commentariat now realizes how truly dire the situation has become.

All these years I've been hoping that someone would stand up with some solid data and prove otherwise. Sigh.

How long can it be before the really come out?

nova wrote:

What kind of job program can be created that will pay people to sit at a desk and make at least 25k a year?

OMG yes! Cash_4_Blogging! FTW!!!!!!

nova wrote:

What kind of job program can be created that will pay people to sit at a desk and make at least 25k a year?

Payroll, HR, lots of desk jobs will be needed to suport labor staff.

RD,

Most of them blog at work for free now. So would they get double the wages?

"nova wrote:
What kind of job program can be created that will pay people to sit at a desk and make at least 25k a year?
OMG yes! Cash_4_Blogging! FTW!!!!!!"

NARM already does that. We need a how to guide from him.

Maybe factory jobs. Building solar panels. Building anything. Not robotic even if it works. Slow paced line. That type of work program.

"Members of this caucus feel ... that a jobless recovery is just simply unacceptable to us."

I agree. And while we're at it, let's put a ban on flying pigs, dancing Leprechauns, and virgin mermaids.

Patientrenter, I take it you don't have children, but if you did, how would you like it if they were standing outside at the bus stop an hour before daybreak?

Hell. Germany because of their aging workforce is going to allow naps. Keep them busy. Give them a reason to feel good about what they do despite how much bs it might be. Else it will be ugly and costly.

barfly wrote:

you're drunk -

No, but that's the best idea on the blog tonight.

"barfly (profile) wrote on Tue, 11/17/2009 - 6:37 pm
reply ignore user
Patientrenter, I take it you don't have children, but if you did, how would you like it if they were standing outside at the bus stop an hour before daybreak?"

I did that from 14 onwards for a long time in sub zero weather. You get used to it.

+100 nova.

I put forth a couple of suggestions. EI and homesteading.

Now it's time for me to stop cheating tomorrow and get to bed. I have to shape the Hall at 5AM; not that's it's likely to get me a job. Typical morning 50>60 men - 2-3 jobs.

I've had 6 days work since Labor Day.

(Oh, and, many of my Brothers are in their 50s and 60s and just as fit as ever. No smart-assed remarks, please.)
We Build America!

It will take decades to unwind the public fear of Nuke power before that can happen.

.
And it would take minutes for the oil exporters to realize what side of their bread is now buttered. With the attendant adjustments to their portfolios...

EHP - Reid has told the Senate to be back the week after Thanksgiving

They've got a lot of clusterf**ks to get done before the end of the year. A sort of how much can you FUBAR in one go.
~splat

well, i don't see where the jobs are going to come from in NY state. about the only place is via government subsidy. And you know the way we are able to afford government jobs in NY? Taxes on bonuses. My neighbor works for a government social service agency. When I expressed my disgust at the squid, she somewhat apologetically said that she didn't mind the bonuses because without them she would be out of work. Nice trick they are playing there. Let us have our bonuses or NY dies.

everything else I see is suffering in upstate. So I may just buy a farm and stop worrying. We still have water here (sorry west coast).

Hundreds Converge on Goldman Sachs DC Headquarters

WHOA... you know they're ALL going on the re-education list.
~splat

12th percentile:

What part of NYS? I live in Saratoga county. 1 in 8 New Yorkers is a unionized government employee. Unfortunately, I think the gig is up. We are quickly approaching CA's level is fiscal disfuction.

Gavshire Hathaway said

"...and I'm certain that the banks (and other leeches on the productive economy) will game the programs to ensure that as much money as possible fails to reach its desired result."

Yep. Probably for every billion spent a 1000 UE will get a job

An extension of health-insurance subsidies for the jobless

gotta throw that health care crap in there, how long have we had this health insurance crisis, we must maintain a healthy unemployment pool...

Anonymous B , Don't work in the rain? What the hell kind of Ironworker are you?

No kidding. I commented on this earlier in the day. Please check my post out at World Political Economy.

A Structural pussy- I get it -

An oldie but a goodie...

In The Know: Should The Government Stop Dumping Money Into A Giant Hole? | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

nuke

I'm in Albany, but have lived in some rural areas around state and have possible designs of moving back. Doesn't really matter where you go in the state, they are all screwed.

I agree, we are right behind Cali and this state is broke. And Cali can't top us when it comes to idiot politicians. We were the ones voted "most dysfunctional". For good reason.

seeing any life due to the planned chip fab up your way? Your condo market is rather overbuilt, isn't it?

For those who have no clue, all Ironworkers are required to wear safety harnesses in all weather in any conditions that might result in a fall greater than six feet. In most cases this requires double hook-off.

poic wrote:

they could Borrow it!
Calling Mr Hu?

I hear Mr Bubbles Bernanke is easier to get a hold of, and is very... flexible.

12th percentile:

We have 3 large luxury condo projects coming on line in Saratoga Springs, with more in the planning stages. As for the fab, all our eggs are being placed in that basket. Lots of new CRE being put up around it in anticipation. However, I think AMD will go BK before that white elephant ever goes into production.

"Bendover Ben is so flexible he can blow smoke up his own ass."

That's what his disertation was about.

Even the optimistic Keynesians are getting worried...

Chance of Great Depression Now 5%... - J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with a Prehensile Tail

"Financial Firms May Pay $200 Billion to Unwind Firms (Update1)"

Financial Firms May Pay $200 Billion to Unwind Firms (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

A one-time $200 billion payment in return for the right to borrow and lend imprudently on a vast scale, and to get bailed out when the inevitable happens. What a deal. Barney Frank knows how to sell out the taxpayers to the bankers.

I think it means Yamaha is closing its NA operations

12th Percentile wrote:

I'm in Albany

Do you work at SUNY?

perhaps mp has sources better than google...

That would be a good guess.

RD - I must commend you on your well expressed reasoning on why you were incensed at Obama bowing to the Japanese emperor (or any royalty, for that matter). I shared your displeasure. Our democracy was founded upon our jamming a finger in the King's eye. On this point, I salute you, sir.

Yamaha has 6 plants? in the US. Two in Georgia. They also have 0 job openings.

No, I am wrong. Not pull out. Maybe consolidate? That was just a guess on my part.

The sport bike segment priced itself into oblivion without 19 year olds with easy credit. The credit bubble masked the underlying problems. The blvd cruiser segment was a flash in the pan and has cratered. HOG is teetering.

Yamaha builds boats...hmmm...not good...makes the props here too....hmmm...not good...generators? Imported?

Builds Jet-Skis and ATV's here I think....hmm...not good.

I wonder who did Yamaha financing here. Did they have a YMAC?

no. self employed.

@TJ-
Field report-The Charlestowne Mall in St. Charles, Illiniois was basically empty. Two years ago people had to wait for a seat in the food court. Today four seats occupied. At least a third of storefronts empty and any open store had more sales associates than customers. RIP U.S. consumer.

EDIT: Illinois

mp wrote:

Good pianos.

Pretty much everything they build is good quality, at least in my experience and reading.

I went to school there in the late 80's early 90's. Has the city gotten any better or is it still pretty depressed?

mp, Yamaha is already dropping in the futures. You are a market mover.

mp wrote:

I said they're shuttering their press relations operation.

that by itself is sort of a yawn, imo.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

What about equipment tax credit for business!

just what we need more capacity. How about just extend unemployment benefits, provide the health subsidy , increase food stamps and then remove all the other crap - take the correction and let the free market go back to work.

that by itself is sort of a yawn, imo.

Too late. They are going down now.

talk about jumping the shark-

Tim Geithner announces a task force to combat financial fraud. That he could stand there and say with a straight face after the inspector General's report suggest that we are really dealing with not only a tax evader but a psychopath .

pyscopath? linky

mp,

This may be of interest to you.

TAPS Surplus- Varous Sizes

@Mike

Thanks for the info, but their asking price is too high.

To all who believe in high speed rail cure all

A ticket cross-country in Japan a country the size of CA and OR costs 200-300 dollars. One way. It is cheaper to fly across the US

The Chunnel is under constant threat of bankruptcy.

If you believe is high speed rail you also believe that Obama saved 1 million jobs

barfly wrote:

the IRS, SEC, FBI, DOJ, and any other Gov't agency you can think of is going into high gear. Book it.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE... MAKE IT SO! It's one thing to have such criminal actiivty going on -- in the open! -- but quite another for the authorities to sit on their hands the entire time.

Why wasn't the the last stimulus package . . . focused on jobs?

How many "better late than nevers" did you get in the first 200+ comments?

That is how we got in this mess. Live for today.

Nice link thanks

I was forced to do time in OC at the beginning of the month. The big mall (south coast) was kinda dead when I was there but the discount and teir 2 storefronts nearby seemed to be doing ok, not swimming but still treading water.

ps. why do the open air malls down there remind me of some twisted version of Disneyland for Adults with credit cards? I kept looking for a tram car.

Timmay is simply in too deep, his body english says much as of late...

How many people caught the Elizabeth Warren interview on NOW (PBS) last week? It's worth listening to her slam the FIRE cronies.

Cash for Caulkers?

TJ and The Bear wrote:

mp, dryfly, and other mfg gurus...

China corners rare earths market

That's like saying they cornered dirt - there is way more than enough ore in the western US to compete... if only we could teach some of the relitters to drive a big Cat [like the gals in 'North Country']. Mines are there knowledge is there - will is lacking. Mining is 'work'.

Hoopajoops,"Why not build 600 nuclear power plants?"
Well, why not build 600 wind farms and solar plants, along with grid-connect plant in 4 corners to tie in the Texas grid to the rest of the country, along with high-voltage transmission lines to the main urban centers? The issue of waste is the problem with nuclear--I'd like to see nuclear as a base line, combined with natural gas peak power, supplemented by wind and solar (preferably generating hydrogen or stored in car electric or basement batteries when wind & solar peaks aren't needed). A small-wind generator on the plains costs 20K; growing up in high wind Oklahoma, the long-term economics of that, if off-set by federal subsidies, could be compelling. But we prefer to hitch our wagon to oil subsidies and nuclear. But climate change has converted me to nuclear, but only as a partial substitute for coal baseline; we should be heading as quickly as possible to the solar/wind/renewable.
Instead, China, Germany, Spain, and the Scandinavians are kicking our butt in renewable investment and technology. If this continues, we've lost the race for the next 30 years, although we and the Norwegians will dominate in deep-sea drilling. Is that the horse we want to ride for the next 40 years? I grew up in the oil patch, when Hubbert's idea of an oil pick was roundly derided as nonsense in the '70's; only to discover that he hit the nail on the head and the wildcatters were all wrong. I suspected he might be right and they wrong, but I didn't know for sure. In retrospect, we put all our money after Carter (Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush) on the wrong damn horse.

But that would require we invest stimulus money strategically, as long-term investment. Good luck on thatl.

Sunday, November 15, 2009
"War ALWAYS Causes Recession"

**PhD economist Marc Faber predicts that the U.S. will launch a war to distract people from the bad economy.

China's largest media outlet - Sohu.com - wrote in October 2008 that the Rand corporation, a leading U.S. military advisor, lobbied the Pentagon for a war to be started with a major foreign power in an attempt to stimulate the American economy:

According to French media well-known U.S. think tank RAND Corporation ... has submitted [to the Pentagon] an evaluation report assessing the wage a war to shift the feasibility of the current economic crisis...

Continued deepening of the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis and economic downturn, developed to a certain extent, is likely to trigger a war in order to achieve the purpose of the crisis passed**

I vote the flyover vs coasts---that'd be a fun war

nova wrote:

What kind of job program can be created that will pay people to sit at a desk and make at least 25k a year?

Comrade Misean is Dope wrote:

MORE DMV! WH00T!

Sorry, the average salary is $37K in California. But then, it's different here.

Deflationary Jane wrote:

I was forced to do time in OC at the beginning of the month.

Next time you're in OC hit the OC Marketplace at the fairgrounds. Best retail shopping environment ever.

Orange county Market Place Unique Swap Meet In California -Biggest Market place in Costa Mesa California for Shopping Food, Fun, Market place in Orange County

the daylight savings time and saving the children is an old wives' tale
edit: there is plenty of good comparisons that could support that argument because many countries, and even jurisdictions within US and Canada (namely farming communities) do not follow DST
DST doesn't protect the children, it is just stupid. the best argument for supporting it, depending on your perspective, is that people shop more when it is light outside

*

We still have water here (sorry west coast).

• Maybe so, but if the gas industry gets its way, it won't be drinkable.

Buried Secrets: Gas Drilling’s Environmental Threat - ProPublica

Rob Dawg wrote:

HOG is teetering.

Wouldn't know it to look at their stock price. Not arguing with you -- but if there's a better illustration that prices are being set using the "greater fool" theory, I haven't seen it.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Developing them isn't exactly an overnight task, either.

They are already here - in Nevada & Arizona - were shut down because [drum roll] it was cheaper to buy it from China. Okay then - unmothball them.

5% Of U.S. Taxpayers Account For 60.6% Of All Tax Revenue, 47% Will Pay No Federal Tax In 2009 | zero hedge

hey, at least that would be in a productive endeavor!

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Who owns them? Might be a good future play there.

slow, slow, slow... see the link above regarding the Mountain Pass mine that is being made operational again (by Molycorp, per the astute sportsfan - which is a privately held entity including VC from )