Fed's Lacker: Fed Can't be "paralyzed by patches of lingering weakness"
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 11/17/2009 - 8:08am (172 comments)
![Syndicate content](/misc/feed.png "Comments for \"Fed's Lacker: Fed Can't be "paralyzed by patches of lingering weakness"\""){kind=small}
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 2 members and 133 guests online.
Currently online
Recent Recommendations
Well, yeah, but empirical evidence suggests Lacker's personal inflation target is negative 2%.
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
P.S. Lacker's rotation on the FOMC ends in January, unfortunately. But then so does Yellen's, so maybe it's a wash (or a Warsh?)
Lacker, Yellen, is there a requirement for a Funny name to be on the Fed's board of Gov.
"patches of lingering weakness"
Is that what we're calling the G8 these days...
Lacker
The name alone speaks volume..
Can we Email this to Lacker
State Budgets Spiraling out of Control
State Budgets Spiraling out of Control -- Seeking Alpha
This economy unfortunately took a cliff-dive into the rocks, and we are all paralyzed with fear, a nation of consumerpalegics.
is the dollar in a patch of lingering weakness?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Consumerpalegics. Absolutely gobsmackingly brilliant.
*pigged from previous thread as I was typing....
Pretty simple really, we can't afford the level of change necessary to salvage this way of life or transition to a sustainable future. Nor do we have the empathy/common identity to pull together as a people and sacrifice together to fix the problems. Who would lead us?
Externalized Costs:
Yeah that sums it up pretty well. But won't it be at least somewhat satisfying to see the looks on the faces of powerful world figures when all the posturing doesn't just magically work anymore. I'm young still, and as a result I'm probably not as worried as I should be. I'm sure, however, that there will be some things about our modern nuclear lifestyles that we won't miss so much. This brings to mind a story from my family...
When my sister was toddler...she became attached to a certain pacifier. Many struggles and some sleepless nights followed.
Finally my dad got fed up...he took the pacifier, put it on a cutting board hacked it up and threw it in the trash in front of her very eyes.
An unexpected result...no crying, no fussing...just accepted it and moved on....
It's amazing what people can do when thrust into a new situation....and bridges have been burned.
S LACKER
SLACKER
yeah...i get it!
Wow, I sure am glad these guys aren't responsible for currency stability or we'd be in real trouble.
Comrade Janošik wrote:
This is why we did our darnedest to give our kids pacifiers. If they suck their thumb, your option is quite a bit messier. And they'll probably take the kids away.
I know one family that took the pacifiers and hung them in the tree out front, so that the 'birdies could bring them to other children who need them'. It had the same results you described.
EDIT: And to your point, I couldn't agree more. We've had an entire generation or two grow up under the umbrella of a large omniscient government, who is called upon to 'make our lives better'.
I think the younger generation might be the first in many years who begin moving away from that opinion. At least I hope so; the other alternative is complete government control, and the thought of that makes my palms sweaty.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Consumerpalegia. Definitely the word of the day.
yes expectations matter, but claiming you're going to commit suicide by holding your breath to the end through shear will power...
that's just going to make me laugh and you red in the face
credibility does not just come from what the intent of the Federal Reserve is, but the magnitude of the change it wants to impose on the environment
And its counterpart, Consumerpelagia, as in underwater?
Gold musings. USD recovers by over 1% and gold trades flat, after dropping 3/4%. Gold is way strong. I'm miffed. No profit yet. Next drop of 6 pts if possible today will see me gone from a 1/4 of the trade position. This Swiss Staircase Sinclair's fellow poster pointed out is annoyingly strong.
I take this to mean they will raise rates to defend the dollar in spite of lingering weakness. Catchy phrase anyways.
Isn't it amazing to read Buiter's rant against the barbarous, he comes off as either a complete nutter, or somebody that's in too deep, as it's really difficult to pick the absolute top of a market, or conversely the bottom, but there he was deep in the heart of the matter, working for the BOE, when the deal went down and they sold 1/2 of their holdings. (who bought it?)
The only problem being, we herald the trader that sells at the top of market, but throw over-ripe fruit at the clown that sells at the bottom...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
EHP, have you watched the documentary "Secrecy"? It delves into the world of national security, and it give pretty much equal weight to both strong advocates for maintaining strict national secrecy rules and those who think that the world would be better served with broader access to information. It was really well done, in my opinion, and I'd recommend it if you're bored some rainy afternoon.
Only tangentially related to your post, but when we're talking about restricted access to information because of the public interest (i.e. TARP recipients and fed meeting notes), it immediately popped into my mind.
nanoo, "no significant changes" . We all know it's in the sequence. What's causing the hemorrhagic response? It's going to be a SNP. One change is not significant per WHO. And who believes WHO is ever on the leading edge? Gimme a break.
"Target’s (TGT) CFO Doug Scovanner said on a conference call this morning, reviewing the company’s Q3 report earlier, that some analysts on Wall Street are “somewhat more optimistic across most of our industry than we believe is warranted in light of the harsh realities of the current environment.” Translation: the average estimate of analysts of $1.12 in EPS for the current quarter “lies within a range of potential outcome,” said Scovanner, “But many things have to fall into place” to meet that estimate. The company said this morning it’s expecting a drop in same-store sales in the quarter, even though Scovanner said on the call it’s possible comp-store sales could actually rise.
This unenthusiastic picture is pushing the shares down $1.98, or 4%, at $48.31."
TGT: What Are Analysts Thinking? - Stocks To Watch Today - Barrons.com
currently $47.95 on higher volume within the hour than has been seen on some recent full days
as for on topic:
Oh glorious Fed, we await with abated breath for the point where you make everything flowers and rainbows again.
Please, pretty please with a cherry on top, don't make us wait any longer. The suspense is killing us.
Kind of like calling Katrina a "lingering patch of dampness."
(I like it; it has a devil-may-care touch of insouciance, sort of an Andy Griffith "twinkle in the eye" kind of understatement.)
Lacker: "If we keep our flood remission methods in place too long, we run the risk of turning New Orleans into a desert waste-land!"
Me: "Doin' a heckava job, Lackie!"
noob goldberg
haven't seen it yet, but will keep it in mind
Higher Education Bubble Update: Universities Turn to Consultants to Trim Budgets - NY Times
The Fed lending cheap money (welfare) to crony banks has nothing to do with the unemployment rate.
It's a sham.
Where's my Industrial Production pig?
If Mish is anywhere close on UE, we won't need to worry about higher interest rates for another decade or so based on the above-
Slumdog wrote:
Slumdog, if you're posting a new topic that is not a reply to another, use the "add new comment" link at the bottom of the page. If you're replying to another comment, click "reply" in the comment you're referencing.
Otherwise it's incredibly confusing to figure out which topic arc you're referencing. For example, nanoo hasn't posted in this thread yet, and you replied to otishertz's comment, so now we have no idea what you're talking about.
looking at the fed funds rate versus employment rate graph CR posted makes it clear
if history is any guide the FF rate will remain very low for quite awhile ...but
but ...history might not be as instructive in our present case
we live in the land of zero or even neg interest rates
(for those at the top of the interest rate food chain that is)
and besides the FF rate is only the overnight rate...thats for weenies
now that the feds learned how to push on a string
dum luk wrote:
Oh, the conference call, that's what happened. I was confused because the Q3 numbers were released a good hour before the stock began to get hammered.
Funny Gold looks like it's holding it's own against the buck....what are you talking about Slum?
gold price
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Goldman warns of near-term downside risk in WTI
eh, better late than never but you're just a follower GS, it's kind of creepy
In 1937 the Fed waited three years to withdraw the stimulus they had provided, and got another recession. Now, its a lot more complicated today, but my feeling is that they will not act to withdraw stimulus until forced to do so by circumstances; ie. collapsing dollar, no buyers for Treasury securities, trade war, etc.
Lacker in 1871: "Spraying too much water on that fire could lead to Chicago streets flooding!"
3torches: "Heckava job, Lackie!"
This is kind of fun!
N.B. emphasis added:
Reuters
[Dillard's] reported a net profit of $8 million, or 11 cents a share, in the third quarter that ended Oct. 31, from a $56 million loss, or 76 cents a share, a year earlier. The 2009 quarter included an income tax benefit of 14 cents per share.
Dillard's reported sales fell 9.9 percent to $1.36 billion in the third quarter. It said gross margins had risen 4.2 percent during the quarter.
Inventory was reduced 22 percent compared with a year earlier.
So GS thinks the commodity price is going to crash. Or is it a ploy by GS to lure in shorts?
otishertz wrote:
I took that bet. Banks need the easy money to remain "solvent". I think it unlikely that Ben is going to risk it in the near term.
Oh look, I found a picture of Lackie in action:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_SqhhJb_P3Kk/SGSTsOBUi0I/AAAAAAAABHw/KzIr_c0x7Fk/s400/that+should+do+the+trick.jpg
Since the topic was the utility index,... I saw a full-length documentary film on the Inupiak Eskimo of Shishmaref, north of Nome. These recent Americans have inhabited the island year-round for about 4000 years, hunting whales and caribou with bone tools and no formal currency let alone a bank.
The Eskimo had no writing but taught the Arctic explorers how to avoid scurvy with seal liver (Vitamin A)and told any zoologist that bothered to ask that bowhead whales can live 150 years without waiting for proof from Harvard. They had sunglasses with no glass and waterproof parkas with no zipper. They still don't have clunkers or a road on Shishmaref, but they've traded surplus fur or art for snowmachines and rifles. They measure the price of oil against pounds of chicken versus caribou. Everyone works, no one has a job. No one starves.
Their knowledge of climate change is purely "anecdotal". The grandparents say winter used to be more than a month longer. They lose 10 to 15 feet of coastline each year because storms in the Chukchi Sea have gotten stronger and more frequent. They would prefer to be left pretty much alone, but they see their island being liquidated at an accelerating pace.
Lacker in 1984: "Too many food shipments could lead to child-hood obesity in Ethiopia!"
CR commentariat, all together now: "HECKAVA JOB, LACKIE!!"
(Great picture of Lackie in action, Noob!)
The greenback is strong like bull today, and the barbarous just laughs at it now...
Although I am more bearish in my GDP forecast than many others, I don't believe that should necessarily translate into unemployment peaking in the mid-teens. See this graph:
http://raphaelkahan.blogspot.com/2009/11/unemployment-might-be-peaking-sooner.html
10 States with Underemployment Rates of 20+ Percent. Manufacturing Sector Employs Same Number of Workers that we did in 1940.
10 States with Underemployment Rates of 20+ Percent. Manufacturing Sector Employs Same Number of Workers that we did in 1940.
Right we will just skip the teens and go strait to the Ty's
Lacker can talk all he wants but there will be no action to tighten as it won't be seen as stock market friendly. Maybe coincidence but within a few days of the below comment the stock market left the launch pad.
"What I'm looking at is not the day-to-day gyrations of the stock market, but the long-term ability for the United States and the entire world economy to regain its footing. And, you know, the stock market is sort of like a tracking poll in politics. It bobs up and down day to day, and if you spend all your time worrying about that, then you're probably going to get the long-term strategy wrong."
Remarks by President Obama and Prime Minister Brown after Meeting | The White House
Chongqing crackdown
There's more money to be lost by the government on RE in that city than Madoff
With RRE still a mess, CRE still a mess, the market very sensitive to a rate hike, unemployment increasing - I don't see how they could raise interest rates for several years.
JD wisely noted at 925
"...the only problem being, we herald the trader that sells at the top of market, but throw over-ripe fruit at the clown that sells at the bottom..."
reminds of a famous quote by j p morgan that goes something like
"i made most of my money by selling too soon"
(ie only a fool tries to pick the absolute top)
i think there is a corollary in there that speaks to buying at the bottom
thus explaining why buffet bought railroads last week!?
For those interested, the weekly (Nov 15) USDA crop progress update for states comprising virtually all production of various commodities:
Corn harvest progress: 54%, vs average year of 89%
Soybean harvest progress: 89%, vs average years of 96%
Sunflower: 59%, vs average of 86%
Peanuts: 78% vs average of 92%
Winter Wheat planted: 90%, vs planting of 95% by this time normally
Cotton, sorghum, and sugarbeets are all where they should be right now.
Crop quality:
Corn: 23% Fair, 48% Good, 19% excellent
Winter Wheat: 30% Fair, 52% Good, 12% excellent
Cotton: 31% Fair, 32% Good, 8% excellent (29% poor or worse)
In Lacker we trust
I hope they recycle all the wasted paper.
In my opinion they won't raise rates....though they like to pretend like they can/will.
It almost seems like a winning strategy, but not raising the rates will have consequences on its own.
Letting the funny money run into every possible nook and cranny is destroying the very meaning of all underlying assets.
"There is no doubt that we must be aware of the danger of aborting a weak, uneven recovery if we tighten too soon. But if we hope to keep inflation in check, we cannot be paralyzed by patches of lingering weakness, which could persist well into the recovery."
translation:
We're going to screw up this situation just like we have screwed up every situation since the inception of the Federal Reserve.
Wiki
Some ideas need to be harpooned directly into the skull to be accepted.
those harpoons would make for some great ebay items
Moby Dick Cheney is still alive?
"i made most of my money by selling too soon"
I think this was by Bernard Baruch.
You know, it is possible to use an old harpoon.
////In my opinion they won't raise rates....though they like to pretend like they can/will. //////
The really interesting part will be when no one believes what the Fed is saying. That may be the time when they do start raising the rate a tiny bit. Can they raise it 1/8th?
josap wrote:
they can do whatever they want, they're super legal
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Well, NOT dead. As in undead.
So the Fed could raise by 0.10 once every few months and see what happens. They could then lower it by tiny amounts if needed. A toe in the water is better than doing a cannon ball to test the temp.
-How up to date can this site be if it's still on daylight savings time? Methinks Lacker also sees more daylight than is forecast.
A point to consider may be that...will raising rates by .10 make the Fed seem unsure, indecisive, or just plain clueless.
josap wrote:
What do you think the effect of that would be on the rollover of our national debt?
Mauritius buys 2 tons of gold from IMF
Mauritius Buys IMF Gold, Follows India as Metal Soars (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
Just read a good part of the Sigtarp Barofsky paper.
Up to the point where the counterparties were listed, which
. All except the squid being Plaintiffs
include my friends Deutchebank, B of A, HSBC (and of
course, the
in various foreclosure cases, as Trustee for yadda yadaa
yadah, asset Number abc1232.
The article was very well written for such a subject and
I recommend it.
And 70% of the trash were CDOs back by ResidentalMBS.
So my argument that some of these dodos actually got
paid off (at par) on Mtges they are foreclosing may actually
hold water.
Any thoughts.
I even think I detected some snark, but am not sure--it would
have to be well hidden.
Par value as listed by the counter parties DIFFERED from AIG's
par, and it was not at all clear whether either one had a rational
basis for the par, nor were there apparently any mechanisms
to reconcile par, at least none were mentioned by the paper. And
is is before you take into account all the credit events of last
year.
And a consultant firm said you had to do it wholesale, because
all the credit events were different, and it would essentially take
too much time and effort to figure it all out.
On the other hand, it seems that there is hope the FEDGov will
be repaid. Supposedly,
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
So if I want to live to be 200, all I have to do is float in the water and exist on a diet of plankton?
Maybe those japanese 'research' whaling vessels should actually start doing real research and figure out how those distant relatives of ours are regenerating their DNA so much more effectively than we are. Besides the fact they spend most of their lives cushioned from radiation by 10-100 feet of H2O, of course.
josap wrote:
I consider that the least likely scenario. I foresee the Fed resisting raising rates to the benefit of the zombie banks, until some outside event or inflation fears, make them and at that point .1 is not going to cut it.
Rare Whales Can Live to Nearly 200, Eye Tissue Reveals
Comrade Janošik (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 11/17/2009 - 10:09 am
A point to consider may be that...will raising rates by .10 make the Fed seem unsure, indecisive, or just plain clueless.
Representing a change from the status quo in which ways?
Cinco-X wrote:
I see your point. There would be allot of confusion and tresuries rates would increase. Not the best solution from that point of view.
OT (from MW): U.S. starts Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force
Does this mean they're going to start enforcing fraud in the markets?
NervousRex wrote:
well yes excactly, still, just another feather in their hat...
gruntled wrote:
Riiiiight
They'll be going after the big guys-
gruntled wrote:
It's not fair if only a few companies are doing it. The best way to ensure fully functional markets is to level the playing field and mandate fraud for everyone.
lawyerliz wrote:
A lot of banks have been paid at par for mortgages. Remember the $x00 billion guarantees BofA and Citigroup got? or the takeovers of Bear, Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, WaMu, IndyMac, etc?
Which oddly enough may delay the foreclosure of those homes, because they can always sell them last for the biggest % loss and expect full repayment. Also gives a good impression to or helps out the Federal Reserve and FDIC with their short term funding
noob goldberg
So if I want to live to be 200, all I have to do is float in the water and exist on a diet of plankton?
Just watch out for the shriveled up monkeys on the floats.
They have pointed sticks, and they are real a$$holes.
The carry trade unwind, if the feds were to tighten, will only get more spectacular the longer they wait.
NervousRex wrote:
They're also idiots. I'd be living below the surface of the water to hide from DNA-destroying radiation, and they jump in hollow shiny tubes and fly up to the sun to get closer to it. Silly shrivelled monkeys...
re rates:
someone tell us what effect a 2% increase in rates would do to:
USG debt service
credit card debt service
mortgage rates
I would posit it to be the equivalent an inexperienced driver tapping the brakes when skidding on ice. Few possible good outcomes.
Aaaah.
It's nice to be paid 2ce!!
and then get a pat on the head to.
Perhaps poor Gretchen could look into this?
Or, Krugman. Paulsy are you out there?
for anyone that didn't see it, FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Goldman warns of near-term downside risk in WTI
GS has a chart with their estimates of oil in floating storage
Lacker is out to lunch if he thinks he'll need to raise rates anytime soon
noob goldberg wrote:
With mark to make-believe, who would NOT be playing? That is an awful big window to fraud to get in.
dude, you have never lived in rural Alaska, this much is clear...
Here are a few charts to ponder:
charles hugh smith-Stating the Obvious: Why the Stock Market Should Crash
Bizarre yet somewhat OT news today: Silverdome sale price disappoints | detnews.com | The Detroit News
" Nearly 35 years after taxpayers spent $55.7 million building the Pontiac Silverdome and a year after a $20 million sale fell through, city officials have sold the arena once called the most desirable property in Oakland County.
The price: $583,000."
Used NFL stadiums on sale...pennies on the dollar.
lawyerliz
actually just realized I mixed up technically getting paid twice with technically getting free money on demand.
but there are lots of mortgages that have been bought below par and redeemed above purchase price one way or another
volker the viking wrote:
That's the killer. Rates go up, housing, MBS, CMBS and TBTF banks go down.
Is it still in use?
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 11/17/2009 - 12:17 pm
They're also idiots. I'd be living below the surface of the water to hide from DNA-destroying radiation, and they jump in hollow shiny tubes and fly up to the sun to get closer to it. Silly shrivelled monkeys...
Blame the E.D. of the old alpha male monkeys who make the decisions to send them there (and to wars)...
Would love to see that in terms of supply of storage as well...how close to the rafters are we getting?
Apparently not..." the property that was home to the Detroit Lions was sold at auction to an unnamed Canadian company that plans to bring a soccer league to the stadium. "
volker the viking wrote:
LOL; You probably didn't mean it this way, but....
2% on top of 29.9%- big deal
1. disaster- 50% increase to debt service costs in budget. Nothing left for much else.....
2.
3. renewed housing price cliff diving
Blackhalo: and yet the experts are suggesting we can 'handle' a 2% rise in rates.
BBC came out with a report on the TV news this morning (can't find the link) that inflation is 1.5% there in the UK.
volker the viking wrote:
Steer into the skid volker, into the skid!
I didn't read through it, Liz, but I was disgusted at the ending, as I commented earlier:
Comment by 1 currency now -yogi from thread 'Merle Hazard: Give me that Old Time Recession'
I don't need Barofsky to tell me that public funds "should" be accounted for publicly. It's right there in Article I.
Freudian slip of this morning's BofA hearing:
"As it relates to the the taxpayers of this company... uh... this country..." -BofA board member
Would California be considered one of them "weak patches"?
energyecon wrote:
With FWD, don't you actually accelerate into the skid?
Well, I hope the 2009-2010 El Nino doesn't mess up with snow for the Olympics...and does mess up with the snow I normally get in the Northeast.
I'd love a good El Nino winter in Ottawa for a change. Less snow, warmer temperatures. Please, oh pretty please...
digalert wrote:
no, it's a solid sheet of black ice, as are Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Massachusetts, New York, Florida.
Someone tell us what percentage of the US economy these states represent.
Raise away, Herr Lacker.
BBC came out with a report on the TV news this morning (can't find the link)
BBC NEWS | Business | UK inflation rate starts to rise
RATM (profile) wrote on Tue, 11/17/2009 - 12:23 pm
Freudian slip of this morning's BofA hearing:
"As it relates to the the taxpayers of this company... uh... this country..." -BofA board member
RATM - Damn, the secret is out but it's barely a secret anymore, sort of like Victoria. In earlier days of the conspiracy, he'd be accidentally falling out the window of a high rise penthouse within days.
shill wrote:
I wonder if this was due to increased prices for energy? The gas bill took directly away from discretionary purchases, added to imports, etc.
Ummm, EHP, when banks get reimbursed by mortgage insurance,
that has nothing to do with the foreclosed borrower, I don't think.
But, as I understand it, AIG was on the hook to its counterparties,
one way or the other for RMBS, and the CDOs/RMBS were bought
and paid for by the US government.
So Juan Gonzalez mortgage that was looking shaky was bought,
in whole or in part, indirectly by the US govenment. The people
who were to get those income streams were paid off, right?
Didn't the US govt get title to 80% of something?
Now I am confusing myself.
Uncle Ar wrote:
Wow. I'm not smart enough to have come up with that...but at least I got it!
I think we need to all donate money to kcoop to be held in trust. Then next year we can buy the Silverdome from the Candians and use it for Doomfest 2010! I figure if we can come up with a $1000 we will have enough left over for a couple party platters.
And you should read the first part.
Sounds to me like Barofsky is pushing
in a verry very sharp sword in the back of
Geithner and Bernacke et all, in the politeist
possible way.
Dum luk-
Oh yeah sure. Use that newfangled Google thing against me.
shill wrote:
Also, looks like somebody borrowed a CR graph w/o acknowledgment-
lawyerliz wrote:
Between secrecy and deliberate obfuscation, it's amazing the government permits us to function as a society at all.
lawyerliz wrote:
Et tu, Barofskae?
Jayzeus H, people living in the Gulag Hockeypelago up over, will do just about anything to escape the frozen tundra, truly desperate measures, indeed~
It's a new angle though, as indoor soccer is nearly as big of a failure as Detroit, so there might be some synchronicity, somehow?
Did I just hear Timmay accuse his accusers of 'lack of experience'.
What a douche.
Or we could have a goal of $5000 and buy the Detroit Lions too.
lawyerliz
not mortgage insurance, the FDIC or Federal Reserve saying "if you get repaid less than par value, come see me and I'll make up the difference" -- essentially the FDIC/FRB owns the downside and the bank owns the upside, and given the known downsides this can be simplified as scalable free money depending on how much the bank loses
you are correct about the govt buying the CDOs -- edit: well no, the case involved swaps on CDOs. they paid off bets against the CDOs.
correct, Juan Gonzalez's mortgage could be owned by the US government via AIG, Federal Reserve (Maiden Lane I, II, and III, agency MBS, agency debt for which their is no capital so effectively more agency MBS), the FDIC (via 'loss sharing' agreements, assets waiting to be sold, FDIC insured debt for which there is no tangible equity to back it up so effectively some more MBS debt), the FHA, the FHLB, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Probably a 60% chance that US government owns the loss on any mortgage in America.
Government isn't taking title. They are 'insuring' known losses, which is just an optically/phonetically sensitive way to describe a handout
Winning Bid for Silverdome was: $586,000 (CNN Money)
Cost $55.7 Million in 1975 to build, on 127 acres.
Canada investor bought.
May use for storage it bootlegging comes back, during our latest depression.
Sure looks like green shoots are sprouting when stadiums go for the price of a home.
Yes, they're inexperienced in extreme cronyism and have no idea how to funnel billions of $ to their friends under the very nose of taxpayer.
Tim is a Jedi master of such schemes.
~splat
splat - funny
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Universal healthcare, government intrusion into the marketplace, soccer...
You yanks really are trying to become Europe.
US Wants China to Buy into Its Small Banks
US Wants China to Buy into Its Small Banks - CNBC
Now I understand the nature of the Bow
Haha, these bozos. They misheard. They thought it was Fi-douchery duty...
Total hydrocarbons at sea, indeed!
Did the counterparties just keep the money, and
pay off the recipients of the income stream or did
they continue to pay using the proceeds of the money
they got from the government?
When they take a loss, will they stop paying the income
stream, and keep the difference? Cause they took a loss
on Joe Schmoe's mtg?
Say they got 100% on the dollar for Suzi Sobern's mtg?
Just to make it simple (!). Suzie's mtg is actually paid
off, but Suzie doesn't know that so she keeps on paying
until she doesn't. Does Suzie owe the taxpayers or
AIG maybe? If the CDOs that Deutche bank is trustee
for was paid off? Maybe the taxpayer or AIG could
sue, but I don't understand why DeutcheBank can collect
again.
I mean actual money was paid (to the extend money
means anything), so this doesn't seem to be an assignment.
I guess my question is just very practical: where are
Suzie's mtg payments going and why?
HP Loancraft's kid is a fledgling soccer team owner, but aren't they all?
Patches of lingering weakness = quicksand.
I'm with Krugman on this one. They're all set to replay the mistakes of GD1 and pull back too soon.
Jonathan wrote:
The appeal to age/experience/education is usually invoked when one reaches a point where they can't rationally explain their position.
It's definitely a douche tool, as it's usually only flouted by idiots masquerading as intelligent people. If you're so wise/experienced/educated, Timmy, you should be able to explain your position to me quite easily. Wow me with your smarts, not your haughty ignorance.
The Vikings abandoned Greenland to the Eskimo. Hunting whales with stone tools was too much effort for the manly farmers.
When the European exploding harpoon came along the bowhead whale almost became extinct before biologists could learn something from their eyes.
They're all set to replay the mistakes of GD1 and pull back too soon.
We'll have to lay in a supply of camel-hair long coats and wan fedoras.
So does my argument hold water or not?
Or, can I confuse a court sufficently to avoid foreclosure
forever, not usually my style.
The article sez the CDOs were "bought". To me that doesn't
mean hedged against.
I'm with Krugman on this one. They're all set to replay the mistakes of GD1 and pull back too soon.
It's possible, as it isn't exactly inconceivable that they have no idea what life is like for your average Joe/Jane.
All right!!!
Jonathan (profile) wrote on Tue, 11/17/2009 - 9:42 am Haha, these bozos. They misheard. They thought it was Fi-douchery duty...
watch it now...name calling will get you no where...
Next thing you know, Timmay will be dissing Lassie. Nothing surprises me anymore.
"patches of lingering weakness" or telltale signs of pattern baldness, followed by a desperate attempt to fight nature and delay the inevitable?
nova wrote:
As awful as the Lions are, there are plenty of cities and bidders for an NFL franchise. I'll wager that Detroit will not be able to outbid them when their contract is up at Ford Field. Who will Detrioters root for then? Chicago? Green Bay?
Comrade Janošik (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 11/17/2009 - 1:48 pm replyIgnore userI'm with Krugman on this one. They're all set to replay the mistakes of GD1 and pull back too soon.
It's possible, as it isn't exactly inconceivable that they have no idea what life is like for your average Joe/Jane.
"I do not think that wrd means what you think it means"
YouTube - Princess Bride - Inconceivable Mashup
noob,
Yeah, they don't have a defensible position.
Between the at-par bailouts, the giant guarantees and the changing of tax law by fiat...
They'd have to explain what the consequences of not taking these actions would have been.
And you have to believe that not taking asset write-downs was the long game.
Paper fills the Fed. If the assets backing that paper fall, the Fed and by implication the USG is toast.
It may yet be anyway.
Speed wrote:
Where Krugman and most commentators who state this about GD1 are wrong is that there is no such thing as 'too soon'. Japan should have been enough to teach us this. We can wait 10 years to remove the government stimulus, and it'll still cause a market crash of epic proportions, certainly an even bigger one than if we pulled it off right now. The longer we wait, the more entrenched the government becomes as a foundational element in the function of the economy, along with the associated moral hazard.
And that's a cancer that will consume us all.
Well, if I am still confused and EHP is editing himself,
who knows more about economics then I ever would,
what we have here is a Gordian knot.
Will I slice thru with my Motion to Dismiss sword? as
a bewildered judge watches? Plaintiff does have to prove
its case.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote 10:17 am
for anyone that didn't see it, FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Goldman warns of near-term downside risk in WTI
EHP this negative rant is not directed at you but at gs)
im sorry but every time i hear goldman announces a trend
i cant help but ask myself
what are their ulterior motives
guessing they have already pre positioned themselves
to profit from the rest of the herd receiving this information
thus the origin of the slogan ,"buy on the rumor , sell on the news "(or the inverse)
goldman lies esp about WTI (as if there was that much west texas intermediate left to make a market anyway) ok that was snark
all bullshit, all goldman all the time
there will be blood
Jonathan wrote:
I don't see how an entity that can literally print money fails, short of a currency collapse.
Comrade Janošik wrote:
If they read at all they know. The real question is do they care? My guess is no.
1 out of 7 families don't have enough food.
un-under employment numbers are at 17% +
BK way up.
forclosures continue to increase.
Yes, they know. But Joe & Jane aren't banks, so they don't care.
Blackhalo wrote:
The Los Angeles team, naturally. What's it's name?
It's only printing dead electrons.
Will check in much, much later.
But surely somebody out there knows who gets
those income streams? In a general sort of
way of course.
ABlackhalo said,
as awful as the Lions are, there are plenty of cities and bidders for an NFL franchise. I'll wager that Detroit will not be able to outbid them when their contract is up at Ford Field
Okay. Then one of the Masters of Glod here will have to pony up an extra 5k or so. Who cares what team the remaining 3,401 residents of Detroit root for? Between them, they probably buy 3 NFL Official Jerseys a year.
Liz, the counterparties got paid for "insurance" on derivative securities tied to the mortgages. I've said all along that these were arguably sham transactions designed to leverage banks' capital, since GS should have known that AIG could never pay in a meltdown.
Not sure whether a judge will buy that Deutschebank's winning a side bet via bailout precludes foreclosure...
I was listening to maim-stream-media hopium on my a.m. dial driving across the desert yesterday, and they were playing up GM giving back money, as the heralding of the return of Motor City, somewhat.
It's a house of mirrors nowadays, trying to decipher their dances with debt.
Jonathan wrote:
I've fought indefensible policy positions before; to win that battle requires the use of strong rhetoric and appeals to emotion. Basically, every dirty debating trick in the book. It's not rigorous, but it's sometimes necessary to advance a particular position that is necessary but doesn't have the best public optics. In those arguments, I'm the lobbyist fighting on behalf of my constituents, and as long as my position is at least considered by policy developers I've been successful, no matter what rhetorical technique is used.
So this is why I'm so concerned that Timmy has resorted to those tactics already. Using rhetoric and appeals to authority instead of providing details indicates that Timmy is not willing to release his true agenda and reasons for pushing these policies.
And as a central government figure, that should be of concern to everyone.
nova wrote:
That depends. What are the gang colors in Detroit? Probably more Oakland jerseys sold...
What is Conjure's countdown clock at, for OCP buying Old Detroit?
sdtfs wrote:
USC.
Cinco-X wrote:
Here are a few charts to ponder:
charles hugh smith-Stating the Obvious: Why the Stock Market Should Crash
not sure which is the right way to look at this but-
between 1982 and 1993 Nominal GDP expanded by 3.4TN - house hold debt expanded by 2.65TN
Between 1993 and 2007 Nominal GDP expanded 7.4TN - house hold debt expanded 9.6 TN
Looked at a different way between 1982-1993 gdp went up 104% household debt went up 1.67%
between 1992-2007 gdp went up 111% household debt went up 228%
If it takes more than a dollar increase in household debt to generate a dollar increase in GDP or in percentage terms a 228% increase in debt to generate a 111% increase in GDP- where does the growth come from if in fact we have not only hit a ceiling but have short past the sustainable level of household debt.
lawyerliz wrote:
Now I am confusing myself.
If they had nationalized the banks that would be correct. But they didn't they only nationalized the liabilities because they were frightened that if they nationalized the assets they would be accused of "socialism". The wealthy must be laughing every time they see a tea Bagger.
crazyv "If it takes more than a dollar increase in household debt to generate a dollar increase in GDP or in percentage terms a 228% increase in debt to generate a 111% increase in debt - where does the growth come from if in fact we have not only hit a ceiling but have short past the sustainable level of household debt."
taking your numbers at face value, that is a great and simplistic question, reverse it and ask what kind of correction has to be made, as we have an easier time changing the GDP than elimenating household debt???
"
Just been leafing through The Great Reckoning. Amazing stuff for a book that was printed in 1993. Some highlights:
It's not all perfect. In 1993, China had not yet replaced Japan as the country most likely to take over from the USA in terms of demand driver for the world economy. So the book is a tad anachronistic there.
San Antonio would be a logical choice to move the franchise to. I'm pretty sure Texas could support a third NFL team. I think SA even has a stadium already in place.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Can anyone tell me how the bank's utilization of the discount window at the fed is any different than the their previous utilization of the short-term paper market?
lawyerliz
somewhere in the sigtarp document it talks about the NY Fed's valiant negotiations at getting the banks to accept less than full value on the swaps they held with AIG. Since they were swaps, there may or may not have been actual ownership of a CDO. but it's in that part of the document where the banks describe their credit default swap ownership. eg goldman claims the CDS were bought on behalf of clients who owned the corresponding CDOs
I'm not a lawyer, but to answer your question I would file for discovery to see if the mortgage in question was securitized, and find out if the creditor ever owned a credit default swap or other 'insurance' against any fraction of the securitized mortgage. It would be a legitimate question, and would probably take more time/effort than some slacker banker could produce
Nov 17. (Bloomberg) -- Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio denied that he wanted to harvest county prisoners organs and sell them to cover his departments budget shortfall. When reached for comment Sheriff Joe said "We tried, but the livers did not test out well. We still have hopes that the problem of keeping the kidneys cool can be worked out." While considered a ...
nova wrote:
Paging Gil Hamilton...
nova wrote:
If you electrocute people in bathtubs full of ice, it's a win-win. Except for the prisoner of course...
survivor bias
rosethorn wrote:
I sure as heck hope so, but Jerry would never allow it. San Antonio Mountain Lions has a nice ring though.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Don't tease me with the thought of the Higher Ed.
popping! It is evil to get my hopes that high! 
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Actually, they were too invested in the trappings of their cultural mileu, kind of like insisting on living in New York...
Blackhalo wrote:
Bwahahahaha!
The difference this time is the unemployment rate doesn't seem to be flattening. I think the Fed should raise the rate to stop speculation, which is going to create an even worse deflation. The history of the 1930's is subject to interpretation. The world doesn't revolve around the rate of interest charged bankers or the spending of governments. The fact of the matter is that thrifty people have saved money and face the prospects of zero interest or losing their savings in some kind of assinine game like the overvalued stock market or junk bonds. Of course, bankers take care of bankers, screw the people.
Austin might even be better. Jerry wouldn't like it because it would probably force Dallas out of the NFC east, which presents the NFL with 6 high attention games a year. I doubt NY/Wash would or Philly/Wash would ever generate the attention that Dallas playing any of those 3 teams does. The entire thrill would be gone. If Detroit moved to SA/Austin, they would probably be in the NFC west and STL go to the North, except STL might go back to LA. Rumor is Jacksonville is going to LA.
I highly doubt that means anything seeing as Bernanke bent over backwards to keep any institution from going to the window. All collateral given the Fed is marked to market daily and only held for 2 or 3 minutes a day.