Just days after a dismal distillate inventory report, oil is back to 79/bbl. Gold is at 1140, 10 yr yields 3.33. Everything, everything rallied today. Except, of course, the dollar.
This is chaos.
Blogs now control the news stream.
Bureaucrats all over see an opening to make a name for themselves.
Housing vacancies march from one all-time high to the next despite substantial efforts to say the least.
End demand has not materialized.
Global trade is still at Great Depression levels of collapse.
There is no unity on resolving any aspect of this multi-faceted problem.
No relief in sight, whether that be a recovery or climactic bottom.
Please don't take this as dramatics. I think it's a level headed assessment and there is still lots of normal out there, but in aggregate we have slipped past the balance. Every attempt to assert control is met with a consequently more powerful response, and every inaction is met with a more numerous response.
I'm a big fan of Barofsky as I'm a fan of equitable treatment by the state in its representation of society, but he's also someone that isn't playing ball with the administration. Unavoidably presents the administration with a problem to leadership.
The really great thing to keep in mind is that many, if not most, of the counterparties had hedged their exposure to AIG. So they got paid twice! And, reported record profits and executive bonuses.
What do you expect? The M.I.C. has had an unlimited budget for a while now "national security top secret" it is only fitting that wall street would get jealous and go for the same thing. After all who do you think the Military answers to? Now everything is a national security matter. Which means of course, the U.S. is broke.
About 10 years ago i'm x-skiing with a couple of friends, and we've been out for a few hours and are a bit famished, and he brought lunch-3 cans of ham, devilish man.
Why is this bad? It saved us from the abyss and put us on the path to recovery.
Once the old world was run by the aristocracy who knew no country. It was bloodlines and titles. Then came WWI and the world changed. Money knows no borders and its servants are the new aristocracy.
(Deviled ham): yes, cat-digested directly into the cans. Have you checked the salt content? A year's supply of sodium per can. It does taste pretty good, but I'm sure bull balls are tasty if prepared properly. That doesn't mean I'd eat them.
Liz, just don't read the label, or contemplate how that deviling takes place.
Every time the government says they are going to save me money, I think about when my wife comes home from the mall and shows me all the money she saved me. The check book still goes down. I can't afford to save any more!
".. many, if not most, of the counterparties had hedged their exposure to AIG. So they got paid twice!"
We really don't know this for sure, do we? However, this is a great question to ask Bernanke and/or Geithner. And if reporters can't get the information, then Congress should get the answer. If these guys got paid twice, then they owe us, taxpayers some money...
a) They aren't going to volunteer the info
b) Huge trading profits showed up out of nowhere in the midst of one of the worst financial crises in a century
c) Congress ain't going to do @#$, and neither is the "press"
You aren't far off the mark. There are quite a few places I know that treat rent-a-ttorneys just like someone may treat getting a court reporter. Basically give them a small office or cubicle. Call them in when you need to summarize documents, respond to discovery requests, or keep around in case the main attorney (or sub-main attorney) are out on vacation for court appearances and emergency fires. The attorneys filling in these roles are usually stay-at-home moms who are looking for a little extra cash but don't want to actively build a book a business. Start them at a fair rate and give them 25-33% of whatever is collected towards what they billed. All 1099s. No benefits.
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The days of a class of associates being moved in lockstep or even given a firm, guaranteed salary may be going the way of the dodo if you can find the qualified labor for 5-10 hours/month doing things that aren't that hard to assign or oversee.
I thought so too, but then I watched some of the older men at the church make sausage for an "Oktoberfest" church fundraiser.
If you start with good, fresh meat, add garden fresh herbs and seasonings, and keep things clean, it's interesting to watch and very good. They had an antique sausage stuffer to make them with and it takes some skill to fill the stuffing to the right thickness and twist the casing at the right time to make the links come out even.
You aren't far off the mark. There are quite a few places I know that treat rent-a-ttorneys just like someone may treat getting a court reporter. Basically give them a small office or cubicle. Call them in when you need to summarize documents, respond to discovery requests, or keep around in case the main attorney (or sub-main attorney) are out on vacation for court appearances and emergency fires. The attorneys filling in these roles are usually stay-at-home moms who are looking for a little extra cash but don't want to actively build a book a business. Start them at a fair rate and give them 25-33% of whatever is collected towards what they billed. All 1099s. No benefits.
I've seen sweltering basements full of attorneys we call "Temp JD's" sitting packed in arm to arm in front of computers where they review documents for 14, 18 hours at a stretch, generally something like 8000 documents per day. They earn something like $30 an hour, no benefits.
MLM, maybe you're right, but the House and 1/3 of the Senate is up for re election next year, and uncovering this taxpayer fraud, if it occurred and, if this what it is - would be very helpful in getting reelected. Don't underestimate what politicians will do to get reelected!
you can find the qualified labor for 5-10 hours/month
There are plenty of lawyers in India. The pool of Indian lawyers that are familiar with the U.S. legal system is growing (as opposed to the British system still in use in India.)
I thought so too, but then I watched some of the older men at the church make sausage for an "Oktoberfest" church fundraiser.
I meant in a factory. I've made Italian sausage with pork I've watched being ground, and it not too bad. However, in a factory, with rats scampering along the rafters pooping in the hoppers,..........
I've seen sweltering basements full of attorneys we call "Temp JD's" sitting packed in arm to arm in front of computers where they review documents for 14, 18 hours at a stretch, generally something like 8000 documents per day. They earn something like $30 an hour, no benefits.
Those jobs will die off as the dinosaurs (clients and firms) die off. Also, the firms I've seen aren't set up for slave mills like the bigger, more prestigious places. I'm talking about firms that are willing to be quasi-humane to the help, but there is no assumption that there will be even 20 hrs/month of billable work for them. Think boutique firms or firms with staff less than 10 people full time. A hybrid between the small town horse trader and the bill mill that is nothing but leeching fees off of clients with too much money and not enough brain mass.
However, in a factory, with rats scampering along the rafters pooping in the hoppers,..........
There are actually Dept of Ag and FDA rules that specify what proportion of insect and rodent parts are legal in foods. It's the rat teeth that will make your dentist smile.
But if you love it enough, it doesn't matter. I'm sure somebody loves Vienna sausages that much -- somebody who's not me. Nor deviled ham, nor head cheese, Spam, canned beef, etc. etc. Linguica sausage, that's another matter.
There are plenty of lawyers in India. The pool of Indian lawyers that are familiar with the U.S. legal system is growing (as opposed to the British system still in use in India.)
Forgive me if we choose to keep it within the actual jurisdiction as the lawyers practicing. Indians in India don't help you navigate the court house. Besides it may be a luxury, but as long as we can afford it, we don't mind losing profits to employ the hometown folks.
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Edit: It may be a luxury, but hopefully these firms will die before joining the band wagon for global arbitrage. It isn't like the US doesn't have a glut of lawyers of its own, and these lawyers are licensed to practice along with personal connections to people in the court system.
Forgive me if we choose to keep it within the actual jurisdiction as the lawyers practicing. Indians in India don't help you navigate the court house. Besides it may be a luxury, but as long as we can afford it, we don't mind losing profits to employ the hometown folks.
The lefty economist Dean Baker likes to snark that if we started off-shoring legal services in a big way, a fair number of people would jump ship from the globalization camp. Why shouldn't an Indian do the legal routine stuff, if an Indian can do the routine stress-testing on an American-designed product?
I'm waiting for the Thais to buy up a couple of derelict cruise ships cheap, convert them to hospitals and moor them 50 miles off the U.S. coast offering cut-rate (and good-quality) surgical operations. Why fly to Thailand to save money when you can be there in two hours on a launch?
Why shouldn't an Indian do the legal routine stuff, if an Indian can do the routine stress-testing on an American-designed product?
My Un-PC response: Our clients hate dealing with Indian tech support, and unhappy clients are collection problems. Boutique firms (more than the Big Boy of Vault fame) know that playing that wage arbitrage game in boutique practices would be like leaping over dimes to pick up pennies in front of massive steamrollers. aka Multi-million dollar AR accounts mean squat when you can't collect a dime of it.
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Edit: Again the Law has too much "humanity" in it to be so mercilessly squeezed by the globalization camp. Racial biases, bad reputations, and unfriendly court clerks are all a part of the game, and if you don't like your treatment or your ruling, you still have to get through the system so you can make it to the next round and appeal it. Then, you have to have a client willing to foot the bill or have a case that will make new law. All of these things make the whole "Send law work to (wherever)" completely stupid if you look beyond simply drafting discovery responses or review boxes of documents.
I'm waiting for the Thais to buy up a couple of derelict cruise ships cheap, convert them to hospitals
when our empire is fully broke, they could lease our aircraft carriers to fly you aboard. With a big Mission Accomplished sign on the bridge, and the MD's all wearing flight suits crotch-stuffed with excess body parts.
My Un-PC response: Our clients hate dealing with Indian tech support, and unhappy clients are collection problems. Boutique firms (more than the Big Boy of Vault fame) know that playing that wage arbitrage game in boutique practices would be like leaping over dimes to pick up pennies in front of massive steamrollers. aka Multi-million dollar AR accounts mean squat when you can't collect a dime of it.
Well, that's a response that takes into account a concern with quality and client satisfaction. That's not the spirit in which the hoi polloi experiences globalization. So I stand corrected; but I'd still expect to see $99 wills available from the Indian subcontinent for J6P given half a chance.
I used to be a tech writer; never thought the profession would be outsourced to the Third World because the English writing skills wouldn't be good enough. Well, I was right; they weren't; but it happened anyway. Companies like HP just hired a few extra editors to try to whip the crap into shape. Usually, they failed.
it has become increasingly difficult to distinguish the truly insane from the slighty wacky. I would be even harder if someone was actually truly to speak the truth with reason.
I used to be a tech writer; never thought the profession would be outsourced to the Third World because the English writing skills wouldn't be good enough.
Most Americans can't read English ( to the level required for technical manuals) they just look at the pictures.
If I had a buck for every time the world has ended on the Web, in paperback books, in the movies...
It's obvious that many people would be delighted at the end of the world, if only for the spectacle. But they may also be very angry about the lives they lead.
USDA: Number of Americans going hungry increases - Yahoo! News
From the article:
"The first task is to restore job growth, which will help relieve the economic pressures that make it difficult for parents to put a square meal on the table each day," Obama said in a statement.
No, the first task is to restore lost wealth to bankers with no strings attached, then to expand the war in Afghanistan, then to overhaul the entire health care system, then to set up a cap and trade system to save us from global warming. Then, after all that, start worrying about job growth.
Well, that's a response that takes into account a concern with quality and client satisfaction. That's not the spirit in which the hoi polloi experiences globalization. So I stand corrected; but I'd still expect to see $99 wills available from the Indian subcontinent for J6P given half a chance.
Ha! When it comes down to whether you pay your soon-to-be ex-wife 5k/month in alimony or 2k/month in alimony, rest assured 'quality' and 'client satisfaction' are the most important. Also "paper money" in these environments can easily turn into "real" money or no money. Again, jumping dimes for pennies in front of on-coming steamrollers. Discovery is mostly just grind work in Family Law () because more times than not, the spouses know what is going on and know where the skeletons are. Even if they don't know where every penny is, they aren't going to find out over the course of discovery for the most part.
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Again, I'm talking more boutique firms using part-time labor, not big firms or firms that practice black letter law. Asok in India won't know the name and phone number of the lady in Juvenile Court who will be able to help you collect back child support or the guy in the court house that can help get you on a court's docket at the last minute. These kinds of lawyers are more like faux lobbyists than lawyers. It is about access and connections.
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Finally I can tell you how many business executives have been going through a divorce and wanted their legal work outsourced to (wherever). Absolutely -ZERO-. Matter of fact, they tend to be the best clients and pay on time for everything. They even rarely question a bill as long as the case goes their way.
Come on pavel, tell us what you really think. You have lived through 'world endings', I am sure your perspective would all give us pause and a reason for contemplation.
I settled in to listen. "Bob Johnson. Your wife is alive and waiting for you in Cincinnati Hope and Pride Camp 3. Tonya Jackson. If you hear this please contact your local Missing Persons office." This went on for almost 10 minutes. Then came the Help Wanted ads. "Machinists are wanted at all Camps. Don't hesitate! You will qualify for automatic level 1 benefits! Toledo Camp Victory needs Pharmacists and Nurses. Don't hesitate! You will qualify for automatic level 2 benefits!" I was going to have to find out where these camps were. We would want to stay at least 30 miles from them.
Seems like GS claimed that because they had hedged their risk with AIG, they shouldn't have to suffer counter party risk (like other investors?). Do I understand this correctly? Wow.
I'm waiting for the Thais to buy up a couple of derelict cruise ships cheap, convert them to hospitals and moor them 50 miles off the U.S. coast offering cut-rate (and good-quality) surgical operations. Why fly to Thailand to save money when you can be there in two hours on a launch? --Bob Dobbs
I've always wondered why no one has done this yet!
Again, I'm talking more boutique firms using part-time labor, not big firms or firms that practice black letter law
Big firms that do Intellectual Property work don't even allow their "contract attorneys" to do doc review, let alone outsource it. To easy to screw up and you actually need to know a thing or two about what you are reviewing.
One more reason an engineering degree is the best undergrad degree.
Private equity(leveraged buyout firms) have gutted America and the worse is yet to come. 4 out of the last 8 treasury secretaries have their roots in PE.
""Well," says the Treasury secretary, "PE firms own companies that employ about 7.5 million Americans. Half of those companies, with 3.75 million workers, will collapse between 2012 and 2015. Assuming that those businesses file for bankruptcy and fire only 50 percent of their workers, that leaves 1.875 million out of jobs."
...
"All of this activity continues despite the likely collapse of half of the 3,188 American companies that PE firms bought from 2000 to 2008."
this is the regulator we are being told to trust to keep us away from future bubbles
If you expect any regulator, however wise or well intentioned, to keep us away from future bubbles, you are truly befuddled. No angel can foil the weight of human folly that crushes economies from time to time. RBS, ING, HRE, UBS and the Icelandic banks all fell prey to the bubble; none regulated by any U.S. authority. The fault lies not in the stars, but in ourselves...
What we do is scan documents into PDF format and OCR them. India does that just fine. I was talking to another IT guy and he said when they put their latest out to bid he was getting 90% cheaper bids based on per page in the US then a year ago.
All of this activity continues despite the likely collapse of half of the 3,188 American companies that PE firms bought from 2000 to 2008."
I heard the piece today. It was good. Even if 1/4 of the firms go BK, it won't be pretty. There are CLDs done on the loans, just like the RE mortgage mess.
he was getting 90% cheaper bids based on per page in the US then a year ago
If your clients prefer that their lawyers not know what is in the documents (often the case with certain kinds of clients), then this should work out just fine.
Big firms that do Intellectual Property work don't even allow their "contract attorneys" to do doc review, let alone outsource it. To easy to screw up and you actually need to know a thing or two about what you are reviewing.
IP / Patent work is its own kind of specialized/boutique law. In that kind of firm, any kind of contractor reviewing those kinds of documents would be beyond stupid. It would be leaping dimes for the hopes of pennies in front of a steam-roller coming at you at 200 MPH.
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Also re: 99 USD wills drafted in India, there is absolutely no need. Many states like Texas allow places to sell court-accepted documents as easy as selling stationary. As long as it is in the approved format, you can just fill in the blanks and run with it. (Wherever) won't help you there. For the people that need some kind of legal transaction with no real assets or liabilities involved, there are already places set up either through pro bono services or forms-by-mail that allow you to handle those kinds of transactions.
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In Family Law (), the problems come up with splitting assets--and increasingly liabilities. Nothing can really be outsourced there until both parties agree on the split, and it is that Devil-In-The-Details that prevents you from enjoying the wage arbitrage thang. In sum, doc reviews can be outsourced. Litigation or Specialty practices not so much.
If your clients prefer that their lawyers not know what is in the documents (often the case with certain kinds of clients), then this should work out just fine.
What we do is scan documents into PDF format and OCR them. India does that just fine. I was talking to another IT guy and he said when they put their latest out to bid he was getting 90% cheaper bids based on per page in the US then a year ago.
We're a small shop, and we already do it (Scan documents into PDF or OCR them into .DOC files). No hard especially when dealing with publicly available documents.
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As for the 90% cheaper bids from within the US, I'm not surprised. I think the field of Law is the quintessential example of going 250 MPH and coming to a complete stop (aka hitting the wall) in 0.2 seconds. Big Law and Mid-Sized Firms have been hurting for years as the clients have been squeezing them for years. Fall '08 was only the event that made the problems more apparent to the public at large. In the current environment, these firms have to have their parts handling something or have to admit the larger legal community that their ship is in disarray. And Law is a massive confidence game...
Used to raise my own hogs and do the whole deal back in the 70's
Made the pure stuff. Clean, pure, nothing better. You're talking corporate.
But mostly a veggie now.
No disrespect, but you're saying what LOTS of SW engineers (many in top-flight R&D labs) I know said in the mid-90's. Today, the last decent remaining jobs in the US for SW Engineers require a security clearance.
In all fairness, there are a few sales / biz dev / client facing roles. But, the H1B and L1s are providing the tech support (in similar conditions to the lawyers in basement) to the empty suits that glad hand the client.
Matter of time before they come for lawyers too...
I'd still expect to see $99 wills available from the Indian subcontinent for J6P given half a chance.
Suze Orman has a very nice online Will&Trust kit for J6P for much cheaper. Take THAT, outsourcing!
In a more serious note, much of the work you don't see is already being shipped out... but being kept out-of-site for morale and PR reasons. Big firms are using the recession to cover their *sses a the only reason they're downsizing -- ain't so.
In all fairness, there are a few sales / biz dev / client facing roles.
Possibly, but the point was "boutique" firms. If you are unfamiliar with the concept, let me tell you that every lawyer is in "biz dev / client facing" roles in these kinds of environments. The "lawyer" part is actually 33-50% of the work when it comes to these kinds of places.
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Edit: While I appreciate when biz execs want to outsource their divorce proceedings--when it will affect them personally--then I'll buy into it. Follow the money.
No disrespect, but you're saying what LOTS of SW engineers (many in top-flight R&D labs) I know said in the mid-90's. Today, the last decent remaining jobs in the US for SW Engineers require a security clearance.
I disagree with you there. There are more software jobs in the USA now than there were in 2000.
"Outsourcing" is a very difficult thing to get right. You need really, really good project management or it will be a disaster.
I worked for a company that did it well, except they didn't call it outsourcing. They considered those employees part of the team with regular communication, management that was located and involved with both locations, etc. I've worked for a company that did it poorly. In the short term, you couldn't tell much was going wrong. But in the long term it just didn't work out and the remaining US and European developers spent a lot of time cleaning up basic mistakes.
That's not fair - Timmy got a very good deal for his clients. He just didn't fully disclose which side he was negotiating for, so we had to figure it out afterward.
*> I was talking to another IT guy and he said when they put their latest out to bid he was getting 90% cheaper bids based on per page in the US then a year ago. **
*
You mean that the bids from US are 90% cheaper than the bids from US last year
or
bids this year from India are 90% cheaper than the bids from US last year
Kinko's (FedEx Office) charged 99 cents per page for a project we archived last year. I had no idea and ate some of the cost due to my lack of DD. If we got quotes for 0.005/page, I would've done it all in a heart beat!
He was getting bids to scan a couple hundred banker boxes of documents and OCR them.
The electricity to run the computer that does the OCR would cost a significant fraction of a penny per page. Not to mention the human work to correct the OCR errors. Pretty darn cheap pricing there. Like almost subsidized cheap.
Why all the snark and distress? Some regrettable accounting mistakes were made but oversight caught them and now it is but a simple matter to return the money to the taxpayers. You all are acting like this was wrong or criminal or cannot be corrected.
nova,
I'm curious, what sort of guarantees do you get that every single document is scanned, that 100% of the originals are returned in their proper order, etc? I'd say that this applies to both US and Indian-based scanning.
Does anyone know with what kind of equipment they are doing the scanning?
I've used standard photocopiers connected to a computer by ethernet to scan a stack of double sided pages before
puts it right into PDF where Acrobat Pro can OCR them
I'd imagine if there was steady demand for it, one could have automated factory lines that even take the papers in and out of the banker box -- but why not locate that facility in the US where you have lower shipping costs? Unless there are a lot of damaged pages or staples or bindings to raise labor costs
or that they don't make two copies and send you only one.
That was a BIG issue for a certain medical equipment company I know of. They outsourced some document handling to China and a few months later exact replicas of their products (from China) started hitting the market.
The boxes are numbered. Inside the boxes are usually folders. They are numbered. All pages are Bate stamped. The scanned material is delivered on the media with each folder equaling a box. Inside that folder are the paper folders as subfolders. Each one contains a PDF that should equal the paper pages.
For us. The discovery going to be used in trial against the client is known. They usually get that delievered to their cell. Then the attorney and investigator will go over that. The remaining docs usually get a keyword pass.
Can something go missing? It is possible, but if it is, It woon't be something that is being used against the client.
The words 'metric ton' in matters of #79, used to be bywords that telemarketers used often, to sell much ado about nothing in many a boiler-room in LI & OC and all points in-between, in the 1980's & 1990's.
they love their rice, so cute
all of them want to grow up to be the big boy who gets to open and close the boxes, but there are so many of them and so few box level jobs
... I wonder how much is doing whatever it takes to survive, and how much of the lure is high growth where people are willing to give up a lot in order to 'get in on the ground floor'
the biggest problem Asia faces in the next year or two is the same realization that dotcommers had about their option grants post-crash
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG’s Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino complex in Las Vegas, already the most expensive debacle in the city for a single lender, is now two years behind schedule, $2 billion over budget and under water -- literally.
Deutsche Bank, the resort’s owner since it foreclosed on developer Ian Bruce Eichner last year, requires 24-hour pumps and containment walls after workers hit an aquifer below the Nevada desert floor. It’s another challenge for a project whose delays and redesigns have sparked lawsuits from condominium buyers and sales agents amid record declines in Las Vegas’s gambling revenue, home prices and hotel-room bookings.
Nova, I wish I had thought of that! They don't know what I look like - although they probably know my name. But it would have been great to get some signed Mortgage Pig gear.
One day a Mortgage Pig shirt signed by Geithner, Summers, and Bernanke might warrant a place in the Smithsonian. Depending on how this Great Recession thing turns out.
Deutsche Bank, the resort’s owner since it foreclosed on developer Ian Bruce Eichner last year, requires 24-hour pumps and containment walls after workers hit an aquifer below the Nevada desert floor.
These guys definitely need to get a clue. Water in Vegas? Market those condo's as coming with water rights. Idiots - they deserve to get soaked on this deal.
The US Army has no
strategic reserve and must wait for as many as 34 months for an aircraft to be delivered, even
while we are waging a war in two geographic areas.112 The industries that support these aircraft
have seen a consistent decline in trained personnel for more than 25 years, yet, according to the
Aerospace Industries Association, they imported nearly $2.7B in parts and engines to support the
military, a risk in and of itself. The Army has no reserve pool of aircraft to provide to pilots
while the aircraft they were flying are in depot being reset. If the Army sustains losses similar to
those in Korea or Vietnam, with significant losses massed in a short period of time, there are no
aircraft to quickly replace those lost. If that occurs, the Army’s primary warfighter, the
infantryman, will be without the close air support and transportation he needs to engage and win
the Global War on Terror or any other conflict this country enters into.
Bernanke Says ‘Not Obvious’ Asset Prices Misaligned (Update2)
Bloomberg
And this is the regulator we are being told to trust to keep us away from future bubbles?
You should see the Bernanke video on Mish's blog--a hilarious compilation of BB statements from 2005-2007 all proven to be wrong.
If that occurs, the Army’s primary warfighter, the infantryman, will be without the close air support and transportation he needs to engage and win the Global War on Terror or any other conflict this country enters into.
THAT is .
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As Einstein quipped, whatever weapons are used in WWIII, the next war will use sticks and stones. Definitely doesn't look like close air support will be possible. (Or is this another fear article to motivate the use of even more contractors in front line operations?)
why don't you take the time to look at the goddamned cover sheet.
It was GD'd snark. I have read it, and I agree with it.
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I apologize for not having some indication of "Snark" in my comment, and the question he raises is valid. The DoD allowed its resource bases to be gutted just like other stakeholders in the process to gut this country, and now even they are having hoocoodanode moments.
I've always wondered why no one has done this yet!
B/C they can't even keep cruise ships clean enough to eat/drink from safely, let alone perform surgery.
Lose 1,000+ tourists from random cities around the world and not have them enter multiple cities around the world repeatedly day after day, and a lot of those problems go away. The cleanliness issue would likely be better on a ship as you would not have an ER full of uninsured with the flu showing up all day and night.
mp: However one feels on our prospects on Afghanistan, it is certain that two countries that want to see us tie up the majority of our combat forces there for a long period of time are Iran and China. We could possibly "win" in Afghanistan, and lose the geopolitical war if we're not careful with one of our few remaining "competitive advantages".
As an aside, loved the story on NPR today about American soldiers protecting a Chinese mining concession in the Afghan hills -- after they outbid an American firm. If that doesn't set off warning bells in our heads about how we're spending the last money of psuedoEmpire...
OT: local meetup in Portland, Oregon tomorrow (Tuesday) night.
6:30pm at The Lucky Lab brewpub, 915 SE Hawthorne Blvd.
We have six RSVPs so far but walk ins are welcome. I'll make a little place holder with a "CR" on it and let the staff know who I am also.
A pair of Skyraiders took out a Mig in Vietnam, I've always that should have been war gamed a few times.
I've long thought we need to build a cheap and easy fighter and bomber, and then get pilots in glider school as backup. The P-38 lightning was sort of an A-10 of it's day and then some.
Cheap simple and can be built in mass if needed, and pilots in training ready to go.
GS and others knew cash was unavailable (i.e. AIGs assets were regulated and protected) in the event of a default. Paulson et al arranged for the ultimate bagholder. High tech robbery.
I've long thought we need to build a cheap and easy fighter and bomber, and then get pilots in glider school as backup. The P-38 lightning was sort of an A-10 of it's day and then some.
The federal government couldn't do something that efficient and effective if they tried. DoD included.
...the United States could lose the next mid-to high-intensity conflict due to its inability to repair and manufacture these complex aircraft, given the current state of the aviation industry.
the united states could lose the next mid-to-high intensity war because she's lost the will to fight... the stomach for war. hell, we're on the verge of losing the low-intensity war in afghanistan right now.
I've long thought we need to build a cheap and easy fighter and bomber, and then get pilots in glider school as backup. The P-38 lightning was sort of an A-10 of it's day and then some.
Cap'n you are new here so you wouldn't know but here:
Rob Dawg (homepage) wrote on Fri, 11/7/2008 - 10:54 am
Dryfly,
I've got an idea. Let's you and me reopen the A-4 Skyhawk line in one of these soon to be abandoned GM facilities. I'm talking about using 90% of the last production plans. The exceptions being avionics, hydraulics and adding 'effin steering on the gdmn nose wheel.
They won't pose a threat to the US and the export opportunities are awesome. Think of all the secondary and tertiary machine shops you can keep open with idea.
The Future will probably look back to our googling of Globalization as one of the deftest acts in human history. The concept that you could outsource manufacturing to increase wealth while not worrying about strategically weakening yourself is beyond stupid.
.
The British didn't setup shop in German in the 1920s (or the 1900s) and then be amazed that their technology was used against them either in a military sense or an economic one.
The US government on Monday charged the main food supplier to troops in Iraq – the recipient of more than $8.5bn (€5.7bn, £5.1bn) in contracts – with systematically overcharging for burgers, chicken and crustaceans, among other products.
....
But Department of Justice lawyers say they have found overbilling of more than $62m related to one part of one count against the company, based on the incomplete data available.
They allege that the company inflated the cost to US taxpayers by such behaviour as failing to disclose discounts from vendors, reducing the size of hamburger packages so as to increase the number of units and failing to ensure a reasonable price for lobster
I did not know that lobsters are included in Meals Ready To Eat.
I've long thought we need to build a cheap and easy fighter and bomber, and then get pilots in glider school as backup. The P-38 lightning was sort of an A-10 of it's day and then some.
The federal government couldn't do something that efficient and effective if they tried. DoD included.
Hey, I'll sign up, I'm a pretty solid sailplane pilot!
edit: Absolutely the highest form of flight. Strapped tight to wings, eventually your senses widen to include the very air currents themselves. There's a six million dollar man book that described something like that, but more from a cyber / virtual reality slant.
lobsters were once seen as rodents of the ocean, and only fit to be served to prisoners
stocks used to require a dividend superior to comparable bond yields, to compensate for the increased risk position in the capital structure
plus ça change
...and failing to ensure a reasonable price for lobster
This happens all the time. The price of wholesale lobster crashed and FedGov expects all of that and then some to filter down to the bottom line. The world doesn't work that way. Purely theoretical example: Lobster at $5/lb and delivered to the troops for $20/lb. Then lobster goes bulk for $2.50/lb and the idiot bean counter at GAO thinks the delivered price should be $10/lb. Not.
I started taking glider lessons, and after a few hours realized sailing was much cheaper. After sailing I while I got the bug for my own boat, thought twice of it and bought a pair of kayaks. Couldn't be happier with the decisions, but sailplanes are an absolute joy.
Rob Dawg,
Most new ideas are old if you look at them closely, quite the memory you have there.
energyecon
thanks for looking into Aleklett's work, on the one hand the projections aren't outrageous but on the other he has committed a lot of time and effort to show reserves were overstated and is a prominent contributor on the ASPO website. So the risk of crazy is out there, but given he has worked for Norway I think he's just a sane man in an insane world. But I'm interested in what the sensitivities/uncertainties are in his forecast, and whether they are likely to be better or worse for the forecast. I do get the feeling we'll just transition to a more expensive/polluting/energy intensive fuel like oil from coal. Even the oil sands in Alberta will need some nuclear plants to replace cheap natural gas, and those will take time to setup.
California still looking for tricks to solve their budget problems.
"Further west, Genest said he researched ways for California to declare bankruptcy, but could not find an option. He also considered having the state revert to territorial status, to give the financial mess to the federal government." California, Michigan in dire straits - UPI.com
and
"As of July 2009, California's budget shortfall was 49.3% of its general funds. States have considered drastic options to fill such gaps.
"I looked as hard as I could at how states could declare bankruptcy," said Michael Genest, director of the California Department of Finance who is stepping down at the end of the year."status."
Of course, he's missing the major option favored by private industry. Hire lobbyists and come up with some special non bankruptcy status were the Federal government gets stuck with the bill, guarantees, or both.
I'm sure that the State can find a few hundred million to get something passed at the Federal level.
The most interesting aspect of his latest paper for me is the methedology for the depletion rate analysis, that is what I am working on getting a reservoir engineer to review...also to his cred is pointing out the implications for GHG emissions.
On the sensitivities, my WAG is that most of the risks are to the downside for rate, as the reference scenario seems a bit like best case in that it requires that the capital, capability, incentive structure and access all come together around OPEC, Mexico, Brazil, and Russia resources...
That looks like a sweet airframe - ideal dwell time I would imagine - what kind of manufacturing capacity would it take to begin production given we can get our Canadian friends to provide the powerplant (where does General Dynamics produce the gatling gun)
By the time construction started in 1986, the design had evolved to the current configuration: a single Pratt and Whitney Canada JT15D-5 turbofan engine (same as in the Beechjet / T-1A Jayhawk), and a GAU-12/U 25mm gatling gun.
TJ, I'm starting to think that the FED's ZIRP is a game of chicken with China. One that is not going to end well. If that is the case, then all of the things that we harp on are known, or even expected, by the FED but relegated to the status of acceptable collateral damage. How's that for ?
That looks like a sweet airframe - ideal dwell time I would imagine - what kind of manufacturing capacity would it take to begin production given we can get our Canadian friends to provide the powerplant
What about armor?
Aside: CaptainMorgan, I'd love to learn sailing. It is on my todo list for ASAP. Seems like there are likely to be a lot of cheap boats around soon. i.e. aiming at $20k for a nice 30 footer. If shit really hits the fan, sailing off somewhere is the nearest I have to a plan.
That was a BIG issue for a certain medical equipment company I know of. They outsourced some document handling to China and a few months later exact replicas of their products (from China) started hitting the market.
Lots of Caps in this paper by an academic researcher with tons of awards and credentials who sees the U.S. is in a pickle...
The U.S. Ponzi Scheme Pyramid of Cards
and U.S. Economic Overstretch
'...the U.S. only has two assets left to rely on...(the) dollar and its military political assets.'
'...the dollar pillar is threatening to crumble.'
'(The U.S.) most probably can NOT extricate itself by resorting to Keynesian pump priming.'
-Andre Gunder Frank Andre Gunder Frank: U.S. Economic Overstretch
Really? This is the first I have heard of it.
Should I be outraged? Please, somebody tell me what to think.
Umm, that was the point!
Wasn't that the idea?
Isn't this the sort of situation that bankruptcy was designed to take of?
Who amongst us hasn't wasted a few billion here or there?
Yeah, I know all this info has been leaked, but the report was just released.
best to all
There was a time when this kind of thing got me really angry. Now that Bernanke and CNBC have enlightened me, I see it as the green shoot it is.
Should anyone here want some sober analysis of the Ukrainian flu situation, this looks to be a reputable source:
Ukraine And The Internet Rumor Mill
Warning! No
just lots of incompetence and confusion.
Speaking of green shoots, here is a particularly verdant one:
USDA: Number of Americans going hungry increases - Yahoo! News
Scandalous! It was almost like the counterparties owned the Fed.
Was the AIG bailout Bush or Obama or both?
When the hoi ploy gets hold of this polloi, or should I say highfalutin perp polloi, there's gonna be hell to pay...
Just days after a dismal distillate inventory report, oil is back to 79/bbl. Gold is at 1140, 10 yr yields 3.33. Everything, everything rallied today. Except, of course, the dollar.
Here is the report:
http://cr4re.com/AIGreport.pdf
Re: previous thread.
The hub and I LIKE deviled ham.
When is the dollar going to rally?
The dollar did get a Bernanke bump. For all of 10 minutes.
[Preacher accent] Can I get a Hoocoodanode from the faithful?
No, don't say, you mean kinda like a funnel? Hoocoodanode
Where else was the money supposed to go?
Hades hath no place for deviled ham in this household.
Have you ever eaten any?
Was the AIG bailout Bush or Obama or both?
if i recall correctly, Bush gave the initial terms, and then Obama refinanced it.
Does that article have a list of the counterparties?
You might like it if you made your own.
"Where else was the money supposed to go? "
Well, some of it was supposed to go to politicians from these grateful counterparties.
This is chaos.
Blogs now control the news stream.
Bureaucrats all over see an opening to make a name for themselves.
Housing vacancies march from one all-time high to the next despite substantial efforts to say the least.
End demand has not materialized.
Global trade is still at Great Depression levels of collapse.
There is no unity on resolving any aspect of this multi-faceted problem.
No relief in sight, whether that be a recovery or climactic bottom.
Please don't take this as dramatics. I think it's a level headed assessment and there is still lots of normal out there, but in aggregate we have slipped past the balance. Every attempt to assert control is met with a consequently more powerful response, and every inaction is met with a more numerous response.
I'm a big fan of Barofsky as I'm a fan of equitable treatment by the state in its representation of society, but he's also someone that isn't playing ball with the administration. Unavoidably presents the administration with a problem to leadership.
And where else?
The really great thing to keep in mind is that many, if not most, of the counterparties had hedged their exposure to AIG. So they got paid twice! And, reported record profits and executive bonuses.
Wow. It took them this long to figure this out?
Paid twice??? Hard to believe, given the natural tendency of
people to try to weasel out of things.
Yancey Ward wrote:
It took them this long to figure nobody was paying much attention anymore. And, they were right.
Turbo Tax Timmay strikes again!
What do you expect? The M.I.C. has had an unlimited budget for a while now "national security top secret" it is only fitting that wall street would get jealous and go for the same thing. After all who do you think the Military answers to? Now everything is a national security matter. Which means of course, the U.S. is broke.
I know you're probably all Bernanke'd out, but I just saw this on Bloomberg:
Bernanke Says ‘Not Obvious’ Asset Prices Misaligned (Update2)
Bernanke Says ‘Not Obvious’ Asset Prices Misaligned (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Bubble? What bubble? Bubbles are invisible to me. My name is Bubbles Bernanke.
About 10 years ago i'm x-skiing with a couple of friends, and we've been out for a few hours and are a bit famished, and he brought lunch-3 cans of ham, devilish man.
The foul taste still lingers in my mind...
Why is this bad? It saved us from the abyss and put us on the path to recovery.
Once the old world was run by the aristocracy who knew no country. It was bloodlines and titles. Then came WWI and the world changed. Money knows no borders and its servants are the new aristocracy.
The default will not be televized!
Yes. See table 2 for counterparties.
best wishes
Again dangerous visions?
Thanks, CR.
Baron Blankfein and his jester Timmay.
Juvie, we will just have to agree to disagree.
These TARP watchdogs are like Chijuajuas (sp?). oh well, we reap what we sow! They will take care of us... supposedly...
Nobody expects the extreme worst.... its just too unbelievable... but for some reason my bones feel it coming....
There is a nice section on Goldman too (although I think all that has been leaked before).
best to all
What is the "extreme worst" you feel coming?
,rad liz,
Do you ever feel afraid eating it in public, being in the Gideon Belt and all?
Gosh, all I want is a billion.
I promise I will spend every cent and stimulate
the hell outta Miami and Merritt Island.
lawyerliz wrote:
I think our government actually has a natural tendency to try to weasel into things.
A terrible war.
Ummmmm, noooooo.
Usually I eat deviled ham sandwiches in the privacy of
my kitchen or dining room.
And it tastes good in the middle of an omelette.
lawyerliz wrote:
(Deviled ham): yes, cat-digested directly into the cans. Have you checked the salt content? A year's supply of sodium per can. It does taste pretty good, but I'm sure bull balls are tasty if prepared properly. That doesn't mean I'd eat them.
Liz, just don't read the label, or contemplate how that deviling takes place.
The Habsburgs turned into have-nots almost overnight, in the scheme of how long the Holy Roman Empire lasted...
Nemo wrote:
Faux News 8-Ball says: "No"
War between what countries?
Every time the government says they are going to save me money, I think about when my wife comes home from the mall and shows me all the money she saved me. The check book still goes down. I can't afford to save any more!
Liz, don't listen to them. Chase it with Vienna sausages too!
".. many, if not most, of the counterparties had hedged their exposure to AIG. So they got paid twice!"
We really don't know this for sure, do we? However, this is a great question to ask Bernanke and/or Geithner. And if reporters can't get the information, then Congress should get the answer. If these guys got paid twice, then they owe us, taxpayers some money...
I haven't eaten any deviled ham for months.
nova wrote:
nova, that sounds a lot like an administration talking point. Are you jumping the snark?
And Vienna sausages are loathesome.
well, you can't unring a bell so let's just try to be forward looking and think robust thoughts.
If any of that stuff included mtges being foreclosured
the opportunity exists for 3 payments.
lawyerliz wrote:
Any sausage is loathsome if you've seen it made-
tj,
No. Hopefully not.
You can't go fishing without taking the Vienna's. It's a rule.
lawyerliz wrote:
Just slather on a catsup and bbq sauce blanket and close your eyes. And think of England.
alibi-partisan?
traderwalt wrote:
I guarantee you that:
a) They aren't going to volunteer the info
b) Huge trading profits showed up out of nowhere in the midst of one of the worst financial crises in a century
c) Congress ain't going to do @#$, and neither is the "press"
@EHP re: Rent-A-Ttorneys
You aren't far off the mark. There are quite a few places I know that treat rent-a-ttorneys just like someone may treat getting a court reporter. Basically give them a small office or cubicle. Call them in when you need to summarize documents, respond to discovery requests, or keep around in case the main attorney (or sub-main attorney) are out on vacation for court appearances and emergency fires. The attorneys filling in these roles are usually stay-at-home moms who are looking for a little extra cash but don't want to actively build a book a business. Start them at a fair rate and give them 25-33% of whatever is collected towards what they billed. All 1099s. No benefits.
.
The days of a class of associates being moved in lockstep or even given a firm, guaranteed salary may be going the way of the dodo if you can find the qualified labor for 5-10 hours/month doing things that aren't that hard to assign or oversee.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
+1 "Close your eyes and think of England"!
Quite a typo on Table 4 (p. 25) that says AIG has $205 Trillion in outstanding exposure. At least the heading says "(dollars in millions)".
nova wrote:
For bait?
I prefer my ham to be on wry.
nova wrote:
There is no recovery; at this point, there isn't even a road to it.
Cinco-X wrote:
I thought so too, but then I watched some of the older men at the church make sausage for an "Oktoberfest" church fundraiser.
If you start with good, fresh meat, add garden fresh herbs and seasonings, and keep things clean, it's interesting to watch and very good. They had an antique sausage stuffer to make them with and it takes some skill to fill the stuffing to the right thickness and twist the casing at the right time to make the links come out even.
You aren't far off the mark. There are quite a few places I know that treat rent-a-ttorneys just like someone may treat getting a court reporter. Basically give them a small office or cubicle. Call them in when you need to summarize documents, respond to discovery requests, or keep around in case the main attorney (or sub-main attorney) are out on vacation for court appearances and emergency fires. The attorneys filling in these roles are usually stay-at-home moms who are looking for a little extra cash but don't want to actively build a book a business. Start them at a fair rate and give them 25-33% of whatever is collected towards what they billed. All 1099s. No benefits.
I've seen sweltering basements full of attorneys we call "Temp JD's" sitting packed in arm to arm in front of computers where they review documents for 14, 18 hours at a stretch, generally something like 8000 documents per day. They earn something like $30 an hour, no benefits.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Infrastructure! WPA our way to prosperity. Or a supertrain route.
picosec wrote:
If that's "exposure", I don't think it's a typo. Feeling a bit queasy?
MLM, maybe you're right, but the House and 1/3 of the Senate is up for re election next year, and uncovering this taxpayer fraud, if it occurred and, if this what it is - would be very helpful in getting reelected. Don't underestimate what politicians will do to get reelected!
yagij wrote:
There are plenty of lawyers in India. The pool of Indian lawyers that are familiar with the U.S. legal system is growing (as opposed to the British system still in use in India.)
The text referencing Table 4 makes it clear that the units should be (mere) Billions.
mhdoc wrote:
I meant in a factory. I've made Italian sausage with pork I've watched being ground, and it not too bad. However, in a factory, with rats scampering along the rafters pooping in the hoppers,..........
tj,
No. I know that most days. Somedays I believe in a bumpy, rutted road to recovery
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
Those jobs will die off as the dinosaurs (clients and firms) die off. Also, the firms I've seen aren't set up for slave mills like the bigger, more prestigious places. I'm talking about firms that are willing to be quasi-humane to the help, but there is no assumption that there will be even 20 hrs/month of billable work for them. Think boutique firms or firms with staff less than 10 people full time. A hybrid between the small town horse trader and the bill mill that is nothing but leeching fees off of clients with too much money and not enough brain mass.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
Non-oil energy infrastructure in particular. Cheap, available energy has always been a key to prosperity.
I don't have the balls to read the Lessons Learned (p. 30) section. Probably something that a junior high econ club would come up with.
Cinco-X wrote:
There are actually Dept of Ag and FDA rules that specify what proportion of insect and rodent parts are legal in foods. It's the rat teeth that will make your dentist smile.
There is a Congressional election coming up in a year. What kind of goodies will Congress come out with? Another tax refund check?
Cinco-X wrote:
But if you love it enough, it doesn't matter. I'm sure somebody loves Vienna sausages that much -- somebody who's not me. Nor deviled ham, nor head cheese, Spam, canned beef, etc. etc. Linguica sausage, that's another matter.
Rajesh wrote:
Forgive me if we choose to keep it within the actual jurisdiction as the lawyers practicing. Indians in India don't help you navigate the court house. Besides it may be a luxury, but as long as we can afford it, we don't mind losing profits to employ the hometown folks.
.
Edit: It may be a luxury, but hopefully these firms will die before joining the band wagon for global arbitrage. It isn't like the US doesn't have a glut of lawyers of its own, and these lawyers are licensed to practice along with personal connections to people in the court system.
On the bright side,How many of us expected to live long enough to see our Great Gandchildren's tax dollars at work?
Uh, I like Spam and eggs. Or fried baloney too. Somehow I think this must Euro hour or something.
picosec wrote:
Is there any chance this paper uses the European format where the comma is the decimal point, and so on?
Bob Dobbs wrote:
NOTHING IS WASTED from a pig - tails, anal sphincters, ears, lips, tendons, lymph nodes, et. al.
I stopped at the quickie-mart in Tehachapi, and I thought I had a chance as the proprietor was from the right sub-continent, but it was all in Jain.
yagij wrote:
The lefty economist Dean Baker likes to snark that if we started off-shoring legal services in a big way, a fair number of people would jump ship from the globalization camp. Why shouldn't an Indian do the legal routine stuff, if an Indian can do the routine stress-testing on an American-designed product?
I'm waiting for the Thais to buy up a couple of derelict cruise ships cheap, convert them to hospitals and moor them 50 miles off the U.S. coast offering cut-rate (and good-quality) surgical operations. Why fly to Thailand to save money when you can be there in two hours on a launch?
JimPortlandOR wrote:
Yeah, well, my mom had a mean streak and she told me what was in the sausage I loved so much at an early age. I didn't care. I still don't.
nova wrote:
Nothing against liking it; I liked it as a kid. Just don't like feeling like hell after eating it. Your mileage may vary.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
My Un-PC response: Our clients hate dealing with Indian tech support, and unhappy clients are collection problems. Boutique firms (more than the Big Boy of Vault fame) know that playing that wage arbitrage game in boutique practices would be like leaping over dimes to pick up pennies in front of massive steamrollers. aka Multi-million dollar AR accounts mean squat when you can't collect a dime of it.
.
Edit: Again the Law has too much "humanity" in it to be so mercilessly squeezed by the globalization camp. Racial biases, bad reputations, and unfriendly court clerks are all a part of the game, and if you don't like your treatment or your ruling, you still have to get through the system so you can make it to the next round and appeal it. Then, you have to have a client willing to foot the bill or have a case that will make new law. All of these things make the whole "Send law work to (wherever)" completely stupid if you look beyond simply drafting discovery responses or review boxes of documents.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
when our empire is fully broke, they could lease our aircraft carriers to fly you aboard. With a big Mission Accomplished sign on the bridge, and the MD's all wearing flight suits crotch-stuffed with excess body parts.
Let's outsource our politicians to India. Now that will get attention in Congress.
Just got to the end of the TARP report.
How long has the US had an "Assistant Secretary for Financial Security?"
... and does he speciallize in barn doors?
"Should anyone here want some sober analysis of the Ukrainian flu situation, this looks to be a reputable source:"
Thanks, MLM. Sometimes I think the Web is a public menace, because of all the mis- and dis-information on it.
picosec wrote:
We have a barn door czar? Really, I never would have imagined...
yagij wrote:
Well, that's a response that takes into account a concern with quality and client satisfaction. That's not the spirit in which the hoi polloi experiences globalization. So I stand corrected; but I'd still expect to see $99 wills available from the Indian subcontinent for J6P given half a chance.
I used to be a tech writer; never thought the profession would be outsourced to the Third World because the English writing skills wouldn't be good enough. Well, I was right; they weren't; but it happened anyway. Companies like HP just hired a few extra editors to try to whip the crap into shape. Usually, they failed.
BB used the term QA(quantitative assistance) today in place of QE; wonder what that was all about?
From the goings on today, the focker has no clue what 17%+ underemployment/unemployment does to a country's morale.
krrrrraaaazzzzzzzy KARL is at it again, today. but, for some reason, he doesn't seem so crazy this time.
We used India to process discovery for review. 3 bids and they were the lowest. Put it on a couple pallets and shipped it there and back.
RockyR wrote:
it has become increasingly difficult to distinguish the truly insane from the slighty wacky. I would be even harder if someone was actually truly to speak the truth with reason.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Most Americans can't read English ( to the level required for technical manuals) they just look at the pictures.
If I had a buck for every time the world has ended on the Web, in paperback books, in the movies...
It's obvious that many people would be delighted at the end of the world, if only for the spectacle. But they may also be very angry about the lives they lead.
CR - did you see Mark Hanson's blog post on the slow moving train wreck in mid to high end housing? The Slow-Moving Trainwreck In Mid-To-High End Housing
past tense
the war will be between the us and america
the way these people are wouldnt suprise me. but ill say really snarky snark
So, I go camping for a few days. Get back and not much has changed.
Some things getting a bit worse, most people not wanting to see reality.
Dow up - Dollar down.
Gold still looking good.
More people hungry, just in time for the holidays.
Angry Saver wrote:
From the article:
"The first task is to restore job growth, which will help relieve the economic pressures that make it difficult for parents to put a square meal on the table each day," Obama said in a statement.
No, the first task is to restore lost wealth to bankers with no strings attached, then to expand the war in Afghanistan, then to overhaul the entire health care system, then to set up a cap and trade system to save us from global warming. Then, after all that, start worrying about job growth.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
My observation is that there are a lot of people who are angry about the lives they think other people are living.
Mr Slippery wrote:
What day of the month is Soylent Green distribution?
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Ha! When it comes down to whether you pay your soon-to-be ex-wife 5k/month in alimony or 2k/month in alimony, rest assured 'quality' and 'client satisfaction' are the most important. Also "paper money" in these environments can easily turn into "real" money or no money. Again, jumping dimes for pennies in front of on-coming steamrollers. Discovery is mostly just grind work in Family Law (
) because more times than not, the spouses know what is going on and know where the skeletons are. Even if they don't know where every penny is, they aren't going to find out over the course of discovery for the most part.
.
Again, I'm talking more boutique firms using part-time labor, not big firms or firms that practice black letter law. Asok in India won't know the name and phone number of the lady in Juvenile Court who will be able to help you collect back child support or the guy in the court house that can help get you on a court's docket at the last minute. These kinds of lawyers are more like faux lobbyists than lawyers. It is about access and connections.
.
Finally I can tell you how many business executives have been going through a divorce and wanted their legal work outsourced to (wherever). Absolutely -ZERO-. Matter of fact, they tend to be the best clients and pay on time for everything. They even rarely question a bill as long as the case goes their way.
Come on pavel, tell us what you really think. You have lived through 'world endings', I am sure your perspective would all give us pause and a reason for contemplation.
Did someone say "End of the world?"
From my ongoing serial novel...
I settled in to listen. "Bob Johnson. Your wife is alive and waiting for you in Cincinnati Hope and Pride Camp 3. Tonya Jackson. If you hear this please contact your local Missing Persons office." This went on for almost 10 minutes. Then came the Help Wanted ads. "Machinists are wanted at all Camps. Don't hesitate! You will qualify for automatic level 1 benefits! Toledo Camp Victory needs Pharmacists and Nurses. Don't hesitate! You will qualify for automatic level 2 benefits!" I was going to have to find out where these camps were. We would want to stay at least 30 miles from them.
more? American Apocalypse
Bernanke Says ‘Not Obvious’ Asset Prices Misaligned (Update2)
And this is the regulator we are being told to trust to keep us away from future bubbles?
Here's the NY times article on the bailout.
Audit Faults New York Fed in A.I.G. Bailout - NY Times
Seems like GS claimed that because they had hedged their risk with AIG, they shouldn't have to suffer counter party risk (like other investors?). Do I understand this correctly? Wow.
ZH is citing a Barclay's report that FAS 166 and 167 will put a half trillion of assets back on the bank's books - and we wonder why banks are holding funds, cutting credit lines and otherwise not lending . . . . Quantifying The Cost Of FAS 166 And FAS 167: At Least $450 Billion Of Onboarded "Assets" With Citi #1 At $154 Billion | zero hedge
I'm waiting for the Thais to buy up a couple of derelict cruise ships cheap, convert them to hospitals and moor them 50 miles off the U.S. coast offering cut-rate (and good-quality) surgical operations. Why fly to Thailand to save money when you can be there in two hours on a launch? --Bob Dobbs
I've always wondered why no one has done this yet!
Big firms that do Intellectual Property work don't even allow their "contract attorneys" to do doc review, let alone outsource it. To easy to screw up and you actually need to know a thing or two about what you are reviewing.
One more reason an engineering degree is the best undergrad degree.
so, pavel. no currency crisis in the making?
Private equity(leveraged buyout firms) have gutted America and the worse is yet to come. 4 out of the last 8 treasury secretaries have their roots in PE.
""Well," says the Treasury secretary, "PE firms own companies that employ about 7.5 million Americans. Half of those companies, with 3.75 million workers, will collapse between 2012 and 2015. Assuming that those businesses file for bankruptcy and fire only 50 percent of their workers, that leaves 1.875 million out of jobs."
...
"All of this activity continues despite the likely collapse of half of the 3,188 American companies that PE firms bought from 2000 to 2008."
Joshua Kosman, Predicting The Next Credit Crisis : NPR
patientrenter wrote:
If you expect any regulator, however wise or well intentioned, to keep us away from future bubbles, you are truly befuddled. No angel can foil the weight of human folly that crushes economies from time to time. RBS, ING, HRE, UBS and the Icelandic banks all fell prey to the bubble; none regulated by any U.S. authority. The fault lies not in the stars, but in ourselves...
How do you make deviled ham?
What we do is scan documents into PDF format and OCR them. India does that just fine. I was talking to another IT guy and he said when they put their latest out to bid he was getting 90% cheaper bids based on per page in the US then a year ago.
Per the Ukraine flu comments on the earlier thread:
Checked with past US Sturgeon General friend who thinks the original comments
probably bogus but will update if more comes out.
Thinks this link better serves
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/14/world/europe/14flu.html?_r=1&percent2362;=&hpw=&percent2360;br=&pagewanted=print
Externalized Costs wrote:
I heard the piece today. It was good. Even if 1/4 of the firms go BK, it won't be pretty. There are CLDs done on the loans, just like the RE mortgage mess.
nova wrote:
If your clients prefer that their lawyers not know what is in the documents (often the case with certain kinds of clients), then this should work out just fine.
Chicago Dude wrote:
IP / Patent work is its own kind of specialized/boutique law. In that kind of firm, any kind of contractor reviewing those kinds of documents would be beyond stupid. It would be leaping dimes for the hopes of pennies in front of a steam-roller coming at you at 200 MPH.
), the problems come up with splitting assets--and increasingly liabilities. Nothing can really be outsourced there until both parties agree on the split, and it is that Devil-In-The-Details that prevents you from enjoying the wage arbitrage thang. In sum, doc reviews can be outsourced. Litigation or Specialty practices not so much.
.
Also re: 99 USD wills drafted in India, there is absolutely no need. Many states like Texas allow places to sell court-accepted documents as easy as selling stationary. As long as it is in the approved format, you can just fill in the blanks and run with it. (Wherever) won't help you there. For the people that need some kind of legal transaction with no real assets or liabilities involved, there are already places set up either through pro bono services or forms-by-mail that allow you to handle those kinds of transactions.
.
In Family Law (
grillfalcon wrote:
I knew caviar was important, but I never knew it was that important.
RecipeSource: Deviled Ham (spread for bread)
Tom Stone wrote:
Now that's seeing the glass half full. I feel better already!
If your clients prefer that their lawyers not know what is in the documents (often the case with certain kinds of clients), then this should work out just fine.
Our clients are usually incarcerated.
One Former Fed with a sense of humor.
nova wrote:
We're a small shop, and we already do it (Scan documents into PDF or OCR them into .DOC files). No hard especially when dealing with publicly available documents.
.
As for the 90% cheaper bids from within the US, I'm not surprised. I think the field of Law is the quintessential example of going 250 MPH and coming to a complete stop (aka hitting the wall) in 0.2 seconds. Big Law and Mid-Sized Firms have been hurting for years as the clients have been squeezing them for years. Fall '08 was only the event that made the problems more apparent to the public at large. In the current environment, these firms have to have their parts handling something or have to admit the larger legal community that their ship is in disarray. And Law is a massive confidence game...
picosec,
Glad to see you read Barofsky's report. Unfortunately you missed 100 scintillating comments in the meantime.
B/C they can't even keep cruise ships clean enough to eat/drink from safely, let alone perform surgery.
Used to raise my own hogs and do the whole deal back in the 70's
Made the pure stuff. Clean, pure, nothing better. You're talking corporate.
But mostly a veggie now.
nova wrote:
Are they keeping the '10s version of O.J. out of the slam
or are they keeping the Bubba and Tyrones out of the slam 
?
No disrespect, but you're saying what LOTS of SW engineers (many in top-flight R&D labs) I know said in the mid-90's. Today, the last decent remaining jobs in the US for SW Engineers require a security clearance.
In all fairness, there are a few sales / biz dev / client facing roles. But, the H1B and L1s are providing the tech support (in similar conditions to the lawyers in basement) to the empty suits that glad hand the client.
Matter of time before they come for lawyers too...
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Suze Orman has a very nice online Will&Trust kit for J6P for much cheaper. Take THAT, outsourcing!
In a more serious note, much of the work you don't see is already being shipped out... but being kept out-of-site for morale and PR reasons. Big firms are using the recession to cover their *sses a the only reason they're downsizing -- ain't so.
It comes down to the biggest negotiation in history for U.S. taxpayers, with hundreds of billions on the table.
And who do we get as our chief negotiator?
Timmy.
It doesn't get more black comedy.
yagij,
We get the White boys too. They usually have all the paper.
that bout sums it up. Wretched.
Badger boy wrote:
Possibly, but the point was "boutique" firms. If you are unfamiliar with the concept, let me tell you that every lawyer is in "biz dev / client facing" roles in these kinds of environments. The "lawyer" part is actually 33-50% of the work when it comes to these kinds of places.
when biz execs want to outsource their divorce proceedings--when it will affect them personally--then I'll buy into it. Follow the money.
.
Edit: While I appreciate
nova wrote:
Maybe it is different up in No. VA, but from where I'm from, "Bubba" is white.
rich wrote:
That's what you get when you pay a civil service salary: the best of those that will accept inferior wages in return for job security.
yagij,
I work in DC. Bubba is not allowed.
Edit. I missed the Bubba and only saw Tyrone. Sorry.
I don't think anybody linked this from today's NY Times. So I will.
From Treasury, an Invitation to Financial Bloggers - NY Times
20 bloggers invited to have cookies with Timmy, including CR. Only 8 showed up.
Mighty expensive cookies. Congratulations to CR for skipping. Sitting with Timmy, I would have tossed my cookies.
who do we get as our chief negotiator?
That's what you get when you pay a civil service salary: the best of those that will accept inferior wages in return for job security.
The negotiator was great, definitely worth the money.
Just why did you think he was negotiating for your benefit???.
I disagree with you there. There are more software jobs in the USA now than there were in 2000.
"Outsourcing" is a very difficult thing to get right. You need really, really good project management or it will be a disaster.
I worked for a company that did it well, except they didn't call it outsourcing. They considered those employees part of the team with regular communication, management that was located and involved with both locations, etc. I've worked for a company that did it poorly. In the short term, you couldn't tell much was going wrong. But in the long term it just didn't work out and the remaining US and European developers spent a lot of time cleaning up basic mistakes.
look at this,and sorry if it has already been posted
Fed's Fisher: GDP Growth In Third Quarter Likely Lower Than Reported
20 bloggers invited to have cookies with Timmy, including CR. Only 8 showed up.
Mighty expensive cookies. Congratulations to CR for skipping. Sitting with Timmy, I would have tossed my cookies.
I could have gone for CR and brought a bunch of Mortgage Pig t-shirts for Mr. Tim to sign. Instant collectors items.
rich wrote:
That's not fair - Timmy got a very good deal for his clients. He just didn't fully disclose which side he was negotiating for, so we had to figure it out afterward.
Nova
I am confused:
*> I was talking to another IT guy and he said when they put their latest out to bid he was getting 90% cheaper bids based on per page in the US then a year ago. **
*
You mean that the bids from US are 90% cheaper than the bids from US last year
or
bids this year from India are 90% cheaper than the bids from US last year
Thanks!
20 bloggers invited to have cookies with Timmy, including CR. Only 8 showed up.
Those who showed up published their reports a while ago.
Here is a good summary with relevant links
Interfluidity :: Sympathy for the Treasury
SNAFU,
He was getting bids to scan a couple hundred banker boxes of documents and OCR them. This is approx pricing.
1 year ago. 1 to 2 cents per page
Now. Some shops were willing to do it for a fraction of a penny per page. Others just laughed when he told him that they needed to beat that.
This was US prices
Years ago it was almost 90 cents a page in the US
nova wrote:
Kinko's (FedEx Office) charged 99 cents per page for a project we archived last year. I had no idea and ate some of the cost due to my lack of DD. If we got quotes for 0.005/page, I would've done it all in a heart beat!
CR +100 for not attending Timmy's lil round-up.
Damn!
Even for India, that is slave labor. Will not be surprised, if they are using school children to do the scanning!
nova wrote:
The electricity to run the computer that does the OCR would cost a significant fraction of a penny per page. Not to mention the human work to correct the OCR errors. Pretty darn cheap pricing there. Like almost subsidized cheap.
sm_landlord wrote:
Got
?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Think. about. that.
yagij,
Much cheaper now. The real low bids usually don't disclose that it's going to India I found.
sm_landlord
OCR, when done with documents scanned from paper printed on a laserjet and 1st gen. usually does not need a human eye check
Why all the snark and distress? Some regrettable accounting mistakes were made but oversight caught them and now it is but a simple matter to return the money to the taxpayers. You all are acting like this was wrong or criminal or cannot be corrected.
You all are acting like this was wrong or criminal or cannot be corrected.
What needs to be corrected?
That GS got 100 cents on a dollar of exposure to AIG, and not 110 cents?
Now, that would be unreasonable, would it not?
Nitey nite.
I'd like to see an Indian lawyer try to defend
a foreclosure from afar.
Hahahahahahaha.
Don't eat too much deviled ham!
MrM wrote:
I'd be extraordinarialy surprised if GS only got 100¢ on the dollar.
energyecon wrote:
Don't have to, ee -- we're of the same mind on that score.
nova,
I'm curious, what sort of guarantees do you get that every single document is scanned, that 100% of the originals are returned in their proper order, etc? I'd say that this applies to both US and Indian-based scanning.
There's just a few cranes toiling overhead in Pavlovegas nowadays... the end of an era, surely.
Tiny Mauritius Tells US To Shove Its Dollar, Buys 2 Metric Tons Of Gold From IMF At $1,115 An Ounce | zero hedge
As good a sign as any that gold is about to go to $900 an ounce.
yah, the other kids should ponder...ah well
Does anyone know with what kind of equipment they are doing the scanning?
I've used standard photocopiers connected to a computer by ethernet to scan a stack of double sided pages before
puts it right into PDF where Acrobat Pro can OCR them
I'd imagine if there was steady demand for it, one could have automated factory lines that even take the papers in and out of the banker box -- but why not locate that facility in the US where you have lower shipping costs? Unless there are a lot of damaged pages or staples or bindings to raise labor costs
or that they don't make two copies and send you only one.
That was a BIG issue for a certain medical equipment company I know of. They outsourced some document handling to China and a few months later exact replicas of their products (from China) started hitting the market.
its mourning in america
Chicago Dude,
The boxes are numbered. Inside the boxes are usually folders. They are numbered. All pages are Bate stamped. The scanned material is delivered on the media with each folder equaling a box. Inside that folder are the paper folders as subfolders. Each one contains a PDF that should equal the paper pages.
For us. The discovery going to be used in trial against the client is known. They usually get that delievered to their cell. Then the attorney and investigator will go over that. The remaining docs usually get a keyword pass.
Can something go missing? It is possible, but if it is, It woon't be something that is being used against the client.
Badger boy wrote:
+1 Nelson HA HA!
energyecon wrote:
Nat gaz spikz and itz de end uv da wurld?
As good a sign as any that gold is about to go to $900 an ounce.
... or to $1,500 an ounce
Use kids to pull those staples and feed the scanner. Pirate the power. Hell, steal the scanners.
"Good job little one. Here is your bowl of rice."
The words 'metric ton' in matters of #79, used to be bywords that telemarketers used often, to sell much ado about nothing in many a boiler-room in LI & OC and all points in-between, in the 1980's & 1990's.
makkanagee doesn't become you, Dawg...
palladium doubles in price last twelve months
jhttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livepalladium.html
please scroll down to 1 year graph
they love their rice, so cute
all of them want to grow up to be the big boy who gets to open and close the boxes, but there are so many of them and so few box level jobs
... I wonder how much is doing whatever it takes to survive, and how much of the lure is high growth where people are willing to give up a lot in order to 'get in on the ground floor'
the biggest problem Asia faces in the next year or two is the same realization that dotcommers had about their option grants post-crash
energyecon, one for you: When Giants Fall: Reminder of an Earlier Debate
nova, one for you: When Giants Fall: Kafkaesqe South of the Border
energyecon wrote:
The Land of Middle Energy is left for you younger races.
ha ha
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG’s Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino complex in Las Vegas, already the most expensive debacle in the city for a single lender, is now two years behind schedule, $2 billion over budget and under water -- literally.
Deutsche Bank, the resort’s owner since it foreclosed on developer Ian Bruce Eichner last year, requires 24-hour pumps and containment walls after workers hit an aquifer below the Nevada desert floor. It’s another challenge for a project whose delays and redesigns have sparked lawsuits from condominium buyers and sales agents amid record declines in Las Vegas’s gambling revenue, home prices and hotel-room bookings.
Nova, I wish I had thought of that! They don't know what I look like - although they probably know my name. But it would have been great to get some signed Mortgage Pig gear.
best to all
CalculatedRisk wrote:
It's not too late. Ask for some to be signed and then auctioned off for Tanta's charities.
One day a Mortgage Pig shirt signed by Geithner, Summers, and Bernanke might warrant a place in the Smithsonian. Depending on how this Great Recession thing turns out.
nova wrote:
These guys definitely need to get a clue. Water in Vegas? Market those condo's as coming with water rights. Idiots - they deserve to get soaked on this deal.
You all ought to have seen the white walls of (D)over @ Hoover Dam yesterday...
About 160 feet of picket-fence-white, sans H20 on both sides.
Las Vegas will be the first newly built city to fail, no doubt in my mind~
silver almost doubles in the last year
Kitco Silver
scroll down for 1 year graph lower left
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA493705&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf
patientrenter wrote:
You should see the Bernanke video on Mish's blog--a hilarious compilation of BB statements from 2005-2007 all proven to be wrong.
the price of lead
fitted to the end
of a cylinder of brass containing a nitrate
has nearly doubled in the last year
see chart
Ammunition Price Increases: Bad and Getting Worse :: Guns Holsters and Gear
mp wrote:
THAT is
.
.
As Einstein quipped, whatever weapons are used in WWIII, the next war will use sticks and stones. Definitely doesn't look like close air support will be possible. (Or is this another fear article to motivate the use of even more contractors in front line operations?)
Well, why don't you take the time to look at the goddamned cover sheet.
hahaha! the price of globalization indeed.
it's sad to watch the empire shrivel up.
mp wrote:
It was GD'd snark. I have read it, and I agree with it.
.
I apologize for not having some indication of "Snark" in my comment, and the question he raises is valid. The DoD allowed its resource bases to be gutted just like other stakeholders in the process to gut this country, and now even they are having hoocoodanode moments.
Uncle Ar wrote:
B/C they can't even keep cruise ships clean enough to eat/drink from safely, let alone perform surgery.
Lose 1,000+ tourists from random cities around the world and not have them enter multiple cities around the world repeatedly day after day, and a lot of those problems go away. The cleanliness issue would likely be better on a ship as you would not have an ER full of uninsured with the flu showing up all day and night.
mp: However one feels on our prospects on Afghanistan, it is certain that two countries that want to see us tie up the majority of our combat forces there for a long period of time are Iran and China. We could possibly "win" in Afghanistan, and lose the geopolitical war if we're not careful with one of our few remaining "competitive advantages".
As an aside, loved the story on NPR today about American soldiers protecting a Chinese mining concession in the Afghan hills -- after they outbid an American firm. If that doesn't set off warning bells in our heads about how we're spending the last money of psuedoEmpire...
OT: local meetup in Portland, Oregon tomorrow (Tuesday) night.
6:30pm at The Lucky Lab brewpub, 915 SE Hawthorne Blvd.
We have six RSVPs so far but walk ins are welcome. I'll make a little place holder with a "CR" on it and let the staff know who I am also.
Old Million Dollar Wound: Injury deemed bad enough for a g.i. to be sent back home
New Million Dollar Wound: Amount deemed necessary to send a g.i. to the 'Stan & back.
A pair of Skyraiders took out a Mig in Vietnam, I've always that should have been war gamed a few times.
I've long thought we need to build a cheap and easy fighter and bomber, and then get pilots in glider school as backup. The P-38 lightning was sort of an A-10 of it's day and then some.
Cheap simple and can be built in mass if needed, and pilots in training ready to go.
GS and others knew cash was unavailable (i.e. AIGs assets were regulated and protected) in the event of a default. Paulson et al arranged for the ultimate bagholder. High tech robbery.
mp, thank you for posting that edit: report.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
The federal government couldn't do something that efficient and effective if they tried. DoD included.
Sarah Palinesque use of 'also'!
Haven't seen or heard much of HP Loancraft, since he made his getaway.
EEngineer
looking forward to the north west contingent of CR/hoocoodanode
mustering in portland tomorrow
thanks EEngineer for putting it together
others...(see upthread for details)
mock turtle wrote:
Any SE contingent that can make this happen?
The bottom line, as Grigsby states it:
mp,
the united states could lose the next mid-to-high intensity war because she's lost the will to fight... the stomach for war. hell, we're on the verge of losing the low-intensity war in afghanistan right now.
MUST READ: Waiting for the Train-wreck
PrudentBear
Too much good stuff to quote -- this article very closely approximates my overall feelings about where we're going.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
Cap'n you are new here so you wouldn't know but here:
The Future will probably look back to our googling of Globalization as one of the deftest acts in human history. The concept that you could outsource manufacturing to increase wealth while not worrying about strategically weakening yourself is beyond stupid.
.
The British didn't setup shop in German in the 1920s (or the 1900s) and then be amazed that their technology was used against them either in a military sense or an economic one.
Thanks tj for the link.
mp, see the Bloomberg story on the Chinese carrier killer missile
You want more outrage?
US military supplier accused of prices fraud
The US government on Monday charged the main food supplier to troops in Iraq – the recipient of more than $8.5bn (€5.7bn, £5.1bn) in contracts – with systematically overcharging for burgers, chicken and crustaceans, among other products.
....
But Department of Justice lawyers say they have found overbilling of more than $62m related to one part of one count against the company, based on the incomplete data available.
They allege that the company inflated the cost to US taxpayers by such behaviour as failing to disclose discounts from vendors, reducing the size of hamburger packages so as to increase the number of units and failing to ensure a reasonable price for lobster
I did not know that lobsters are included in Meals Ready To Eat.
yagij wrote:
Hey, maybe the British can do better!
YouTube - Bird & Fortune The Admirals Interview
The fog of war is good for business...
really quiet here, tonight. eerie.
Hey, I'll sign up, I'm a pretty solid sailplane pilot!
edit: Absolutely the highest form of flight. Strapped tight to wings, eventually your senses widen to include the very air currents themselves. There's a six million dollar man book that described something like that, but more from a cyber / virtual reality slant.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
The Aleklett et. al. paper from your link - I have a geoscientist I work with looking at it - lining up a reservoir engineer to review it as well:
http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/PeakOilAge.pdf
lobsters were once seen as rodents of the ocean, and only fit to be served to prisoners
stocks used to require a dividend superior to comparable bond yields, to compensate for the increased risk position in the capital structure
plus ça change
Rob Dawg wrote:
That is one helluva an idea!
Bring back the Warthog! ( a guy can dream)
MrM reported:
This happens all the time. The price of wholesale lobster crashed and FedGov expects all of that and then some to filter down to the bottom line. The world doesn't work that way. Purely theoretical example: Lobster at $5/lb and delivered to the troops for $20/lb. Then lobster goes bulk for $2.50/lb and the idiot bean counter at GAO thinks the delivered price should be $10/lb. Not.
Jonathan wrote:
I started taking glider lessons, and after a few hours realized sailing was much cheaper. After sailing I while I got the bug for my own boat, thought twice of it and bought a pair of kayaks. Couldn't be happier with the decisions, but sailplanes are an absolute joy.
Rob Dawg,
Most new ideas are old if you look at them closely, quite the memory you have there.
Jonathan wrote:
YouTube - Pink Floyd - Learning to Fly
energyecon wrote:
Better: Scaled Composites: The Ares
[I lofted the airframe]
energyecon
thanks for looking into Aleklett's work, on the one hand the projections aren't outrageous but on the other he has committed a lot of time and effort to show reserves were overstated and is a prominent contributor on the ASPO website. So the risk of crazy is out there, but given he has worked for Norway I think he's just a sane man in an insane world. But I'm interested in what the sensitivities/uncertainties are in his forecast, and whether they are likely to be better or worse for the forecast. I do get the feeling we'll just transition to a more expensive/polluting/energy intensive fuel like oil from coal. Even the oil sands in Alberta will need some nuclear plants to replace cheap natural gas, and those will take time to setup.
Any thoughts on the PrudentBear article I linked above (and not just on the gold aspects)?
California still looking for tricks to solve their budget problems.
"Further west, Genest said he researched ways for California to declare bankruptcy, but could not find an option. He also considered having the state revert to territorial status, to give the financial mess to the federal government." California, Michigan in dire straits - UPI.com
and
"As of July 2009, California's budget shortfall was 49.3% of its general funds. States have considered drastic options to fill such gaps.
"I looked as hard as I could at how states could declare bankruptcy," said Michael Genest, director of the California Department of Finance who is stepping down at the end of the year."status."
Of course, he's missing the major option favored by private industry. Hire lobbyists and come up with some special non bankruptcy status were the Federal government gets stuck with the bill, guarantees, or both.
I'm sure that the State can find a few hundred million to get something passed at the Federal level.
EHP,
The most interesting aspect of his latest paper for me is the methedology for the depletion rate analysis, that is what I am working on getting a reservoir engineer to review...also to his cred is pointing out the implications for GHG emissions.
On the sensitivities, my WAG is that most of the risks are to the downside for rate, as the reference scenario seems a bit like best case in that it requires that the capital, capability, incentive structure and access all come together around OPEC, Mexico, Brazil, and Russia resources...
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Reading it right now.
.
+1 PrudentBear
That looks like a sweet airframe - ideal dwell time I would imagine - what kind of manufacturing capacity would it take to begin production given we can get our Canadian friends to provide the powerplant (where does General Dynamics produce the gatling gun)
TJ, I'm starting to think that the FED's ZIRP is a game of chicken with China. One that is not going to end well. If that is the case, then all of the things that we harp on are known, or even expected, by the FED but relegated to the status of acceptable collateral damage. How's that for
?
What about armor?
Aside: CaptainMorgan, I'd love to learn sailing. It is on my todo list for ASAP. Seems like there are likely to be a lot of cheap boats around soon. i.e. aiming at $20k for a nice 30 footer. If shit really hits the fan, sailing off somewhere is the nearest I have to a plan.
arachnoid.com atomvoyages.com good inspiration.
Badger boy wrote:
Illicit: The Dark Trade (2008) (TV)
Pretty darn good show on black market trade and how impossible it currently is to fight.
Intellectual property appears to be on the way out.
Lots of Caps in this paper by an academic researcher with tons of awards and credentials who sees the U.S. is in a pickle...
The U.S. Ponzi Scheme Pyramid of Cards
and U.S. Economic Overstretch
'...the U.S. only has two assets left to rely on...(the) dollar and its military political assets.'
'...the dollar pillar is threatening to crumble.'
'(The U.S.) most probably can NOT extricate itself by resorting to Keynesian pump priming.'
-Andre Gunder Frank
Andre Gunder Frank: U.S. Economic Overstretch