Meredith Whitney Expects Double-Dip Recession, FDIC dumps "Cease & Desist"
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CalculatedRisk on Mon, 11/16/2009 - 12:52pm (243 comments)
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Yeah, but wasn't she also shorting C at $1?
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Isn't "consent order" sort of an oxymoron?
Do the recipients actually consent to "Consent orders"?
Nemo wrote:
In all fairness, who wasn't?
Nemo wrote:
You mean like "Strong Dollar" ?
The flocks grows.
HALT! This is the police. If if it is convenient and no trouble we are sorta asking in a nice way that you stop. Well not so much stop but promise that you'll stop for the most part some time in the future.
If she were areal patriot she would never mention anything about a double dip. What if people start examining the emperor's new clothes?
I'm strongly tempted to agree with her.
Keyword counts reversed over the past few months with "recession" headed back up and "green shoots" fading out quickly at end of summer.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=permanent_midnight
Rob Dawg wrote:
Robin Williams - I think - did a bit about this during one of his stand up routines. It was about British Bobbies and their lack of firearms. Stop! Or I'll say Stop! again.
YouTube - Robin Williams - Live at The Met - Guns, God, and Fish
Meredith: The US consumer was going through the biggest credit contraction ever—even bigger than that during the Great Depression. "That credit contraction is accelerating," she said. "There's nowhere to hide at this point."
Amen!
Yes, they sign them and "consent". It is just a name change - the orders are still the same. They will soften some of the language too.
best wishes
noob goldberg wrote:
Terry wrote:
Not even in China? Does that mean my Higher Ed.
might pop within my lifetime?
She didn't say buy gold.
They will soften some of the language too.
Dear Mr. Banker,
You know that shell corporation you set up and then loaned money so it could buy all of your non-performing assets? Could you maybe be a little more circumspect? Not asking you to stop; just suggesting you try to be a little more discreet.
K tnx bye.
The worst is yet to come: Unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses
CR,
I don't mean to call you out but really, what part of next leg down or double dip doesn't look certain? We are having trouble pretending second derivative trends are holding.
World Out of Balance
I don't have access to the full article, is there any mention why the change to 'softer wording' and why now? Is this so the poor dumb public gets a PG rated bank failure, sugar coated and not too upsetting with a guaranteed good ending to the story..... just l like with Old Yeller?
Cinco-X wrote:
If they're already unemployed, why would they need to hunker down? How many more jobs can they lose?
Cinco-X wrote:
This is the sort of thing that Phil Gramm was talking about! This is creating or perpetuating a mental recession. If we truly believe in the spirit of jobs and credit, all of these worries would just go away. Is that so difficult to understand?
Terry wrote:
That appears to be the case with Total Revolving Credit (REVOLNS) examined on a Year Over Year basis:
energyecon: Year Over Year Change in Total Revolving Credit Outstanding
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Well, the natural extension of treating banks and other corporations as full legal 'people' is that now we have to be concerned about their feelings, too.
Cinco-X wrote:
Double secret unemployment Dean Wormer?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
TPTB felt like the harsher wording was bad for their self-esteem, and that this might affect their otherwise sterling performance which is coupled to their out-sized bonuses.
The banks aren't lending. Excess reserves piling up at the financials. End of august $765B ----> november 4th $1.059T.
FRB: H.3 Release--Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions--December 3, 2009
noob goldberg wrote:
I thought Roubini's wording was peculiar, but perhaps it's related to his not being a native English speaker-
noob goldberg wrote:
None, but they are hoping to be earning what they used to earn in the near term.
I remember Meredith's huge buy call on Goldman that marked the end of the July dip. She's made a few "stocks are kinda pricey" remarks recently, but calling for a double dip is a pretty big step.
Black-Eyed Dog wrote:
Wrong blog, Mr. Dog.......
black dog wrote:
Pushing on a string is the same as fudge packing in this case.
energyecon wrote:
Is this inflationary?
Cinco-X wrote:
Every blog is the right blog for magical thinking. Hopefully it's clear that this is snarky.
If your tire has a hole you have two choices- (a) keep pumping air in to compensate for that which is leaking out - current economic policy or (b) take the time to fix the hole even if that means that in the interim more air leaks out. Then having fixed the hole pump like hell. How smart do you have to be to believe that (b) is a better choice? The current economic policy is predicated on the premise that despite the fact that the air has come out of the tire it is fundamentally sound. The obvious question if it is fundamentally sound why did the air come out seems to have been missed.
Roubini makes the the same mistake in his analysis. Despite stating that 1/4 of jobs can be outsourced, that construction finance and manufacturing jobs are not coming back his proposal - spend more money on construction jobs. Not a word about the 1/4 of jobs that can be outsourced, not a suggestion on ensuring that US manufacturers are competing on a level playing field.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Gross-
I think its rather disingenuous myself. Whose gonna have the kahunas to actually come out and call a pig a pig, that the equity market climb was based on bad data, massaged numbers, kool aid sucking kids who can't put the video game down; and UE this time is something more than a 'lagging indicator'. This time it is different.
Black-Eyed Dog wrote:
Mine too, Herr Dog-
Sony CEO sees no electronics rebound
Total video game sales down despite record sales for the top titles
Black-Eyed Dog wrote:
This is a concern even during 'good' times, when highly-paid professionals lose their positions and wait around for 6-12 months waiting for a similar-paying position to pop up. Overcoming pride seems to often be the last hurdle before re-entering the job force, from what I've seen.
It appears Roubini might be saying that--in this case--simply overcoming pride might not be enough...
black dog wrote:
I think that statement should be edited to read " the banks have moved from gifting money to lending money". The problem not a lot of borrowers around who can pay the interest never mind the principal.
The FDIC Vans will now carry a logo of "Sheila's Pizza's."
noob goldberg wrote:
Or....he might be saying that if you're out of work today, don't expect a new job to pop up soon, since the workforce is still contracting.
ooh..EHP, thats one market I've followed in previous recessions to as a twisted little game I play in my head on conditions. It says volumes to me about the state of the economy. It tells me those part time jobs kids use to buy their games with aren't around or taken by those trying to feed kids themselves.
noob goldberg wrote:
Hunker down in this context means to gradually get into grass eating so the tummy doesn't get into ejection mode all at once.
Cinco-X wrote:
Sorry, I'm challenged. Maybe I should become an economist.
Black-Eyed Dog wrote:
You should assume that I'm snarking unless I'm not...........
noob goldberg wrote:
I don't know if I would characterize it as over coming pride as much as giving up hope. We Americans are an optimistic lot- it has stood us well for quite a while. Giving up hope is hard to do. Only difference this time- in the past we hoped that through hard work we could make it,. now we hope our stocks and homes go up in value so that we can borrow against them and spend the money we don't have.
Cinco-X wrote:
I think I've got it now.
crazyv wrote:
Is this because we've become soft through pampering, or because we collectively know at some level that there is so little hard work that we can do?
Perhaps the FDIC should be issuing "cyst and decease" orders...
I think Whitney needs to get out and walk around Wall Street more often. Double Dip? Recession? Really!
Rob, isn't it all a matter of degrees? If we see 0.5% growth in 2010 - that will be considered a recovery (assuming it is somewhat spread out over the year) - but -0.5% will be considered a recession. I don't think we will see a "V" (that seems clear), and I also don't think we will see a depression. Something in between seems likely.
We have to remember that the passage of time is slowly healing the wounds. Sure - there is plenty of extend and "hope", and that means the problems will be with us for some time. But each year the population grows, and there is innovation, the excess housing inventory will be worked down - and on and on.
I think a sluggish / choppy recovery is the most likely scenario, and a continuation of the recession is also possible. This isn't an exact science!
best wishes
Time may slowly heal some of the flesh wounds, given enough medication, but time is also helping the internal disease regain a foothold, so the next outburst wont be so easily contained to the young and poor. Bring on the inter-generational warfare. It's a good thing the younger generations havent looked at the employment to population ratios by 5 year age groups.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Let me continue the nautical-themed metaphors: Right after the credit crunch sucked all the water away from the beach, we were hit with tsunami of liquidity, on top of which we're all currently floating. We may argue about how big the waves are going to be after the tsunami retreats, but hardly anyone is predicting that this volume of liquidity is going to be permanent. All we know is that we're currently floating and we've acquired an ugly infestation of
...
GDD9000 wrote:
Maybe if we turned it into some sort of Facebook game....
Dead money. Dead electrons. Meaningless.
I'm pretty sure the young folks have noticed that the old folks got all the jobs and the young folks ain't.
I didn't need a computer to notice that back in 1979-81.
Sorry to go OT but I found out a little more about the conditions in the Ukraine for those interested. Got links if anyone wants them. 1 in 3 are infected. The WHO issued calming words early today but martial law is now in its early stages, as are quarantines. The WHO statements were before this latest news. Doctors are dying. Patients that get the virus die relatively quickly, its hemorrhagic. Baxter admitted to sending out vaccine for H1N1 with live H5N1 (bird flu) to some regions in eastern Europe. There is some confusion about whether or not it was administered. This appears much more virulent. Its early to say but strains are currently being evaluated in London against CaH1N1. Some speculate it is a mutation, some say its something different. Another says its combination of H1N1, H5N1 and a bad form pneumonia. No one really knows yet except that this isn't H1N1 as it exists in the pandemic form currently.
Wow just finished reading this:
Federal Reserve proposes limits on gift cards
And now come here, and read this...we need a ministry of truth....by the way, why would gift card regulation fall under the purview of the Federal Reserve?
GMAC CEO Alvaro De Molina resigns: WSJ - MarketWatch
Just what they need. The second mass die off of Ukrainians in the past 75 years.
i watched elizabeth warren on the pbs show "now"
Elizabeth Warren on the Economy . NOW on PBS
congresses cop on the bailout beat
she is an inveterate truth teller and an american hero
what she has to say is nothing short of stunning
near the end she proclaims nothing less than we are in a fight with the lobbyists right now for control of our country
and all middle class americans need to get on the phone to their elected representatives cuase the banksters
are swarming all over DC
then i went and read merideth whitneys comments
its a total horror show
ive almost reached the point where i cant bear to watch the slo mo train wreck anymore
i wake up 2, 3 time every night
i have children you are young adults...early 20s
and their future is being ripped out from underneath them
and i know others are suffering or will suffer much worse
its beyond awful
what is fair?
seems appropriate to repost this on this day.
YouTube - Bernanke: Why are we still listening to this guy?
These cards are issued by banks.
thanks CR, and you don't even have to make this stuff up.
Links appreciated.
Thanks...I just got up from a nap with my youngest, so I am still groggy... these days I pause when any power of the FED is discussed.
Fair? There is no freaking fair. It is what it is. EHP
albrt wrote:
True, but half the kids don't really want to work, and the other half automatically assume they can step into the shoes of a 50 year-old and make the same salary.
I'm exaggerating, of course, but I don't see much anger brewing. Yet.
re flu: go here--
Recombinomics In The News
click Nov 9 update
Somebody best be spreading the news.
and thanks to whomever posted the link
time to stock up on beer
Black-Eyed Dog wrote:
I think there is no question that he have become soft- although this is something that every generation has said of the one that follows it. and is probably true because life has improved. However, right about now I think we are softer not because of some intrinsic flaw in our character but because we (collectively) haven't been asked to do something beyond ourselves. After 9/11 there was a great increase in the people who wanted to go beyond themselves- the long lines of people wanting to donate blood is an example- instead of a call "to arms" we were asked to demonstrate how patriotic we were by going to the mall.
However, at some level I also think people know that the old hope of working hard and making it was no longer working. There were only two choices- accept that the steady upward progression of American standard of living had peaked or buy into the garbage of ever increasing stock values and home prices as the way to maintain the standard of living. The former was too unpleasant so people deluded themselves into believing the latter.
I am not sure that Roubini understands the full implications of what he is saying. This will be a profoundly different country if people give up that hope. I question whether it could even remain a country as we know it. I think this is the real black swan. I question the economic policies not because I want to flip cheap assets as Boward suggested but because I believe that a series of false dawns will damage/destroy hope more effectively than a steep and quick sell off. As a country I think we are better of having a steep decline and five years of growth even if that leaves us lower than a modest decline lasting years.
Nice to know Baxter has immunity isn't it...
http://www.businessinsider.com/bubonic-plague-20-could-spread-across-europe-2009-11
(the title is misleading)
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2390104/recent_rash_of_outbreaks_in_the_ukraine.html?cat=5
wtf: consent order?!?!
That's just incredibly tortured language.
Vonbek777 wrote:
was that you that posted the link?
What about the stories, many and widespread, of some light airplanes spraying the day before the initial outbreak?
crazyv wrote:
This is America. We don't give up hope. "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities." Churchill
Well, this is encouraging:
Money Starts to Trickle North as Mexicans Help Out Relatives - NY Times
"Unemployment has hit migrant communities in the United States so hard that a startling new phenomenon has been detected: instead of receiving remittances from relatives in the richest country on earth, some down-and-out Mexican families are scraping together what they can to support their unemployed loved ones in the United States."
Nice. Really nice work guys
This new strain in the Ukraine is believed to be linked with Baxter Labs, International. Baxter labs admitted recently that earlier this year that they did indeed accidentally send out tainted vaccine from Austria to labs in the Czech Republic, Slovania and Germany. Fortunately, a subcontractor in the Czech Republic decided to test the new shipment on ferrets upon arrival. The scientists inclination turned out to be correct as the ferrets died immediately after receiving the vaccine. "All the ferrets had to be liquidated and the company had to be closed." said the authority's spokesman Joseph Dubin. This deadly combination could have become an incubator for a new disease to spread on a worldwide level. The companies director of global bioscience communications admitted in an e-mail that the H5N1 strain was indeed live.
Meanwhile, the country of Ukraine is at the beginning stages of Martial Law. Schools are closing for the upcoming weeks, the borders are being blocked off around quarantined areas and protesters face criminal prosecution for speaking out against the mass inoculation campaign. Hospitals are waiting to hear back from the sequence studies done on the virus samples presently being performed by Mill labs in London, England. The studies being done are being performed to replicate conditions under which the virus mutates, as well as to check temperatures at which it is most active. Ukranian residents are becoming more anxious as the results of the changes in the DNA sequences of the specimens of H5N1 remain forthcoming, while more people are hospitalized daily.
Yeah, I broke more furniture when reading that. Baxter is also the wonderful pharmaceutical that supplied contaminated Heparin to hospitals that resulted in deaths (preventable). Heparin is used a lot in hospitals.
Conjure asks, "Innovation for whom?"
"We're back to The Wealth of Nations again."
Nice that Ukraine is in a Depression, still hasn't got the IMF money, and has a crappy roadnet plus crappy basic infrastructure.
I posted some info several days ago...but stopped since most was
, not that the 
didn't sound more plausible than the official story. You have reports of people dying within 24hrs of onset, lungs just melted...this isn't the swine flu... I will repeat my concern that this is very similar to the initial reports coming out of Mexico that were then silenced. Strange to me that these random mutations are happening in politically key regions of the world. One region that needed stability, and one region that a major world power wishes destabilized. I don't sense God's hand at work in this...but that is just 
me.
No, but she did say the sideline money is buying hard assets and gold.
And she did say the sideline money "is usually the smart money."
,rads y apparatchicas,
Have I come back from a float down the Rubicon, to the "V For Vendetta" Blog, or is this still the Calculated Risk Blog?
sounds like "12 monkey's" scary
all encouraged to listen, longish radio show with doctor who was there, recovering from the flu himself, and has very specific info on the what's up with swine flu
illuminating
Recombinomics In The News
click Nov 9 update
mp,
Which is what she is probably telling her paying customers.
Volker: I didn't see anything about that in the news today. I did see the what you posted about that before. I'm waiting for the sequencing. I've been following this closely since last year. I'll keep my ear to the ground.
BTW, the book which I've mentioned before "The Coming Plague" non-fiction and written in the mid-late '90s. It is approachable for non-medical people and will scare the holy poll out of everyone. It won a Pulitzer IIRC.
That sounds scary.
Definite Squid potential
Alvaro De Molina bofa,gmac
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
surprised?
Listen to the doctor and what he says about the release of sequencing. Might piss you off a bit more, if so then I'm sorry. Facts are facts, and the researchers need the data and WHO refuses.
"If they're already unemployed, why would they need to hunker down? How many more jobs can they lose?"
I think that means 'take anything you can get', maybe three minimum wage jobs.
It sound like something out of Stephen King's "The Stand".
Henri Niman is quite good about spreading the news by himself (about Recombinomics):
Silicon Investor posts about H5N1 (SARS) in 2004 in just 10 days:
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/2c4f503b9c.png
I don't want to downplay what is happening in the Ukraine but I'm always worried as soon as Henri Niman's firm is involved.
,rads y apparatchicas,
Anything happen aside the from the barbarous breaking out setting new records, and CR never mentioning anything in regards to it?
"all encouraged to listen, longish radio show with doctor who was there, recovering from the flu himself, and has very specific info on the what's up with swine flu"
Did he say this was a mutated organism,even possibly?
Anymore,
is more true than not.
Well, I am sure a vacine will be made available if it goes worldwide. I have been impressed by the H1N1 roll out.
My wife said that when the reports of animals dying started showing up. Speaking of which, can't remember where I read it this morning, but someone found several dead birds with lungs that looked 'popped' and full of blood. Experts were 'puzzled'.... see if I can find it...
I will believe this is a different kind of beast when the CDC announces it.
Henh, henh, that is a really good area, especially for retirement.
But they totally, totally overbuilt the area. It looks like mini Manhattan.
But it is within walking distance of the Big, and I do mean big, Dadeland
Mall, Metrorail, a short distance to a good hospital, lots of restaurants, big
bookstores, everything.
but after 25 years of good, gradual building, the builders and
banks went berzerk. (sp?)
I'm sure they were intending to make a profit, so 33 cents on the
dollar for just costs, well, there you go.
Vonbek777 wrote:
found along the flyway?
Ah... yes here it:
Mystery of the dying budgies
edit...no, died at a birdshow...don't remember reading that this morning...curiouser and curiouser...
Budgies, That was actually kind of funny in a Brit sort of way.
unless the President has information no one else does, he can't know that. There is some talk that the election maybe postponed due to the flu which is supposed to take place in Jan. I sense there is some "don't waste any crisis" political motivations but then again, he could have info that just hasn't been released publicly yet. The Californian flu is H1N1 and why you see it referred to as CAH1N1 sometimes as this is the sequence being used for vaccine, etc
Vonbeck-find that. I need to see it. edit: thankies.
I'm going to hold my powder dry before getting too worried just yet. That being said, this is only phase II of the pandemic. Pandemics come in waves and we've got another to go. Thus far as pandemics go, this one has been mild in proportion to other pandemics. Its still awful, causing more deaths than in normal flu seasons and targets people who are otherwise healthy and the young. We've not had a flu pandemic like this since the late 50s/early 60s so its scary.
Rutgers Law, representin'.
vonbek:
or was it bats?
Holy haemorrhage Batman! Wind turbines burst bat lungs : Not Exactly Rocket Science
Anybody ever hear of Cassandra.
This time we have at least 3.
oh yeah!
http://ui28.gamespot.com/411/sc4cassandra_2.jpg
Twas a nice roadtrip, here's some misc views from my windshield"
Bumper sticker on a pickup truck on Hwy 99: "Dairying is NOT a crime"
Billboard on Hwy 99: Picture of a beautiful baby girl captioned: "I have fingerprints 7 months before i'm born" (Yes Virginia, I am in California's Bible Belt)
Sign on Hwy 99: Free 4 pound bag of oranges with gas fill-up
A decent amount of the billboards going past downtown Pavlovegas are for lawyerdom, including one operation that called itself "Half-Price Lawyers".
including one operation that called itself "Half-Price Lawyers".
followed by half-ass appeals?
Good one Volker... so anyone know who is knocking off the microbiologists...I remember back in 04-05 there was some speculation that it was the US killing off germies with ties to terrorists, but in light of what is happening now....I am really scratching my head.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
well I have good news and bad news, remember there were two counts? well one of them is gone
hey, cheer up, it was half price fer crissakes!
it seems like it should be the employed people that should hunker down for more job losses
granted it won't get better for the unemployed (and I see everyone else made similar points)
No, I am not cutting my fees.
I don't care what the billboards say.
time to go home and teach my daughter how to play Metalica....
Is Shelia Bair one?
Liz, I am a man of course, but that was one of my nick names in college, given to me by a Prof who told me that the gift of the oracle is usually reserved for those who tilt with windmills. When you think outside the box, those inside rarely listen, even when you have a track record of being correct.
Dead people don't need to spend money on energy.
Oh, yes, Nanoo.
Nobody at all believed Cassandra, which is not the case with
our 3.
steelhead wrote:
Not just limited to bank issued gift cards, but also closed loop (merchant) cards - the Fed has jurisdiction as the CARD Act gave it to them to draft regs.
I don't see anything wrong with the regs I read, gift card-wise.
hmmm...
sees that as an optimistic plan?
lawyerliz wrote:
A few issues - but the Fed deferred on the toughest issue - the transitional rules as to the 50+ million cards already in circulation when the rules become effective in August, as well as the 30-40 million that will be in distributor and merchant inventory at that time.
I didn't have a problem with what I read either...but then again...I distrust the FED so much now, I don't want their little grubby paws on even more authority. I mean you know there is a secret line in there somewhere granting GS a 5% transaction fee for ensuring transparency
I think this is more baffle and confuse stuff. A lot of people got pissed off after holding Sharper Image cards and then losing out when they closed their doors, maybe others too. IDK. Why are they messing around with stuff like this when someone is running off with all the gold in Ft. Knox?
haven't they had more than enough time to sequence the virus and release it? that is perhaps the single most disturbing element here for me...
i don't think that the Fed can properly handle its consumer protection duties while part of a public/private organization.
but that's just me.
lawyerliz wrote:
Don't think of it as cutting fees. Think of it as a discount for timely (within three years) payment.
Panic, panic, everywhere...can't release anything that might cause panic.
1 in 3 Ukrainians sick?
Yes and if you really want to have some fun, read the WHO and CDC updates and press briefings. I really had to laugh at one a week or two ago when reporters were angered about GS and Cit employees getting vaccine ahead of hospitals. The two step done there was hilarious.
energyecon wrote:
yes, constantly updated and it all seems to center around #225 in the sequence
they have to be pressured to release because they are discounting the change as insignificant while seasoned expert researchers go without because they consider them unimportant
c/mon man, unimportant? people's lungs turn to mush and it's unimportant
I forgot, Baxter's involved.
Vonbek777 wrote:
I'm not paniced. Wait a sec, feel kinda woozy, AAAAAEEEEIIIIIIAAAAHHHHH!!!!!!!!!
Ukraine Flu Outbreak: Virus Is a Mixture of H1N1 and Parainfluenza, Causes Cardiopulmonary Failure
Interview with Dr. Victor Bachinsky
Ukraine Flu Outbreak: Virus Is a Mixture of H1N1 and Parainfluenza, Causes Cardiopulmonary Failure
Wow, that was chiper....ok all you weak links of the herd, time to do your part, and take yourself out for the team.
wonder why these types of events don't have during bubbles....
CalculatedRisk wrote:
(Note: This response isn't directed at CR ) I think the Orwellian wordsmiths are butchering the economic lexicon to win via technicalities and split hairs. When you say "recovery", I think the common person thinks of 1982 forward or 1993 forward. It wasn't a recovery like we saw in the 50s or 60s, but it did automatically translate in the minds of J6P that jobs will becoming more available and wages would return to moving in an upwards manner. Energy costs would be lower, and there were options that provided rooms of growth (however deceitful at the time like securitization or the .com
).
== Robo Hamsters? I argue that we need some new words where "paper recovery" (paperecov) is more academically honest whereas "J6P recovery" would equal what "recovery" used to mean.
.
Now "recovery" is translated into government reports or paper markets and does not mean those things. Hence, we find ourselves getting riled up over a recovery call which is technically true, but we are also seeing homes going unoccupied or unsold. We see that even the manipulated U3 number is moving upwards, and no one sees any real "recovery". Even if you look at your 201k or 301k, you don't really feel the recovery because budgets at work are frozen if not moving backwards if you are in any field that pays taxes on fixed assets (e.g. Not the government). You see people actively trying to decide if the generic brand is a good deal vs. what items are for sale. You also see strip malls going empty or people jostling around the mall with no bags in their hands. We have people storming the big boxes for robotic hamsters for crying out loud!
.
Real hamsters aren't that expensive to buy or maintain, and yet people think buying robo-hammy is a good way to keep their children from realizing the fact that Mom and Dad aren't able to keep up that lovely image that each generation is better off than its preceding one?
energyecon wrote:
The Ukrainian health care system's in total disarray (and has been since the fall of the S.U.). As of mid-September they weren't even able to perform a simple test to determine the presence of H1N1, never mind doing a sequencing.
The WHO and Baxter have been on the ground for awhile now though...and they do have the people and skills.
lawyerliz wrote:
In the affected areas it's possible--it's consistent with my s.o.'s family and immediate friends, which admittedly is too small a sample.
No disrespect Yalt, the sequencing is being done in London.
Financial intercourse age of consent order?
WHO does the sequencing
and the Ukraine's health system is just the way ours (USA) will become once they do the central planning of protocols and procedures for all illnesses which, if you read the interview, is how it's done
which is why the demand for pathologists will go up
I nominate November 26th to be Currently Smoking Cannabis day, see if we can't smoke him out. Ceremonies will be limited to watching videos on youtube and laughing
From the Ukraine link:
Pneumonic plague has a very different morphology. We have, for example, 60 thousand people who became sick and 23 have died. With pulmonary plague, we would now have a mortality rate of 59 thousand...
I think we should panic, it's the only sensible thing to do.
Another Pavlovegas billboard: Rooms @ the Primm (stateline) $15
It's also the way it was done back when their health system was functional.
Could you pick a different day? That's my birthday, and I'll have to deal with quite a few other things..
Yalt wrote:
yep!
and the dumb bastards in congress think it best that we too should have such a dipshit cumbersome system
lawyerliz wrote:
On a more serious note, what are the rumors among your bar saying? Any rumors of underworked gray backs or increasing use of flat fee representation in areas that used to be hourly?
Count Formaldehyde sounds like he's going on a deep doom pattern downfield, as of late.
but this isn't Pneumonic plague according to the pathologist. I question if this pathologist is able to identify exactly what is causing the hemorrhagic conditions but he can rule out things like pneumonic plague based on tissue sampling and organ conditions. We really need the viral sequencing to determine if this is a mutation of H1N1 or something else or a combination and so far the only one who said anything has been the Ukrainian president.
I did read that correctly? I get foggy this time of day. Hemorrhagic lung damage is very disconcerting as its a feature seen in really, really virulent disease. I also wonder if they continue to send samples because this could be a moving target so to speak if this is a mutation event.
sdtfs
No good reason for the day, other than a better than average chance of the markets providing laughs.
Lahde's resignation letter was Oct 17 and CSC didn't hang around too long after that which led to the mythology fwiw
Maybe the Ukraine is a test area for martial law...Ukranians have survived starvation though...they will survive this with some depopulation however...
A mutation event will definitely get people's minds off the crash event...
Stuff like what's happening in the Ukraine is a good reason to have a year's* worth of food on hand, when shit happens.
Starvation has a long memory...
That "dipshit cumbersome system" worked fine until it was subjected to market forces in a collapsed economy. And it has very little to do with what's gone wrong, although it's a convenient whipping boy for both sides in their election run-up. My friend's father wasn't diagnosed because they simply didn't have the resources to do the job. It had nothing to do with any centrally-imposed protocols.
Wall Street's closed on turkey day!
merchants of fear wrote:
Not Mutant Zombie Banks!
"WHO does the sequencing
and the Ukraine's health system is just the way ours (USA) will become once they do the central planning of protocols and procedures for all illnesses which, if you read the interview, is how it's done"
So you're saying that Canada and the UK are exactly like the Ukraine?
My father is currently a doctor in the UK and formerly out of Hungary with a sister still practicing medicine in Hungary (another command control health system). In no shape or form are they similar based on facts on the ground.
Can I sell you a tin foil hat to go along with the garbage above?
This sentence was also quite illuminating:
... Antibiotics definitely should not be taken. Antibiotics are the reason we have such a high mortality and infection rate in this country, because people go to the pharmacy, describe their symptoms to the pharmacist and ask for drugs. They buy antibiotics, take them, this lowers their immune system and as a result they become sick. If prescriptions were required to buy these medications, like in other countries, this would not have happened. It is the ability to buy antibiotics over the counter without a prescription which has done so much harm to the State. ...
yagij wrote:
In my informal list of promising business opportunities list there is maple syrup, LED light production, Mexican call centers, and hiring the young/desperate surplus army of lawyers where they are provided with the basics (lexis nexis sub, computer, desk, billing software) with the business coming from billboards/radio and offering flat-fee contracts to corporations. Would work it on a sliding scale of choice between salary and commission. Could take on part-timers. Could franchise it, maybe apply for a business-method patent or two. Maybe spend x% of profits on lobbying congress to discharge student loan debt if they work for said company for 3 years
Has anyone seen Mish's latest posts on unemployment? In his best case scenario we're at > 10% unemployment until 2014.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bernanke's Outlook For Recovery and What It Means For Jobs
Nah, the citizens of McUSA could live off the fat of the land for 2.
My grandmother made me crazy about keeping good supplies in the household, teaching me how to stretch meals, stuff like that. You know, SURVIVAL skills.
The virus isn't a problem. It will kill far more Chinese, both in real numbers and proportionately, than Americans, giving us a win for reversed outsourcing.
Hmmm, no mention of principal forgiveness.
FAIL
Citi Steps Up Loss Mitigation Efforts in Florida : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
loss mitigation = losing paperwork for as long as possible, then after 500 days delinquent they'll paint the lawn green before selling it if the FHA hasn't refinanced it by then
thanks everyone, time to play with the cute doggie now.
eric89074 wrote:
For those that want to play around with their own assumptions, download his spreadsheet and play with your own numbers. I personally believe that it will turn out to be worse... but I repeat myself.
Soon to be replaced with "Pretty please, Stop Doing That" requests.
poic wrote:
"Command control" in no way describes the Ukrainian system on the ground. It's a useful myth for the rulers as it allows them to pretend that they have some control over the system, but the actual delivery of health care there is a libertarian paradise: totally unregulated market medicine, with services provided by unscrupulous sharks to anyone with an appropriate bribe, and the size of the bribe determining the level of service.
My bid for virus movies would be "V for Vendetta".
Oh, and the Greater Depression is still on schedule.
I respect the opinion of Meredith Whitney, and then she says...
*"I don't know what's going on in the market right now because it makes no sense to me," *
me too
What's going to happen to the price of gold?
Same thing that's been happening for the past 9 years; it'll go up and down, but trend steadily higher.
We had a grand old time, 11 of us on the Colorado River (mostly Hashers) and hanging out with coeds from UCSB, attired in their birthday suits in the approx 107 degree hot spring @ in the slot canyon...
on-on
As to the hunkering down comment, I assumed the author was talking about expenditures--apparently there was an article in the Wall Street Journal a few days ago about people getting severance payments and continuing a 100K a year lifestyle, maxing out credit cards, etc.
TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/16/2009 - 7:00 pm
My bid for virus movies would be "V for Vendetta".
Oh, and the Greater Depression is still on schedule.
There is a new movie coming out in Jan/Feb 2010 about a virus (or vaccine to a virus) that turns the entire population into vampires that must drink the blood of the uninfected minority to stop from mutating into "monsters". The premise is that the whole vampire society has farmed the uninfected to the point of exhaustion.
Daybreakers:
DAYBREAKERS - In Theaters January 8
DXY is on a linear downward trajectory and has fallen $5 in the last five months. If BB keeps the rates at 0% till the end of 2010 or longer, as he is promising to do, we might find DXY down to ~60 by the end of next year. It seems to me they (whoever they are) would have to intervene in some fashion to prevent that. No interest rate hikes, given the employment numbers. So what else can they do? Would the rest of the World put up with a continued, even if orderly, drop in dollar of that (or larger) magnitude?
CR said, "We have to remember that the passage of time is slowly healing the wounds. Sure - there is plenty of extend and "hope", and that means the problems will be with us for some time. But each year the population grows, and there is innovation, the excess housing inventory will be worked down - and on and on."
Did the passage of time heal the wounds from the S&L crisis, LTCM or the Dot-Com bust?
Or did the "fixes" to those crises further incentivize bad behavior and recklessness, thus causing more damage to the economy? Seems to me the wounds are festering, not healing. However, TPTB are making sure that the damage payments are made by certain segments of the population (namely those who are not politically connected).
Are things getting a little rough in Russia?
Russian cannibal who ate mother has sentence reduced 'because he was hungry'
A Russian cannibal who killed and ate parts of his own mother has had his prison sentence reduced by nine months after a court accepted he resorted to cannibalism out of hunger rather than preference.
Russian cannibal who ate mother has sentence reduced 'because he was hungry' - Telegraph
Three held in Russian 'cannibal case'
Russian police have arrested three homeless people suspected of eating a 25-year-old man they had butchered and selling other bits of the corpse to a local kebab house.
Three held in Russian 'cannibal case' - The Irish Times - Sat, Nov 14, 2009
There is no way the health system in Ukraine is comparable to any system in a developed country. Nor do I believe that the CDC or W.H.O. would ever withhold information if there were any serious development in the pandemic. It would make no sense in any way: ethical, moral, medical or in terms of public health and safety. No health professional would ever take responsibility for withholding such vital information.
Pulp novels aside.
Nothing to do with piggy flu, but in terms of movies I am eagerly awaiting the release of Solomon Kane here in the States. Big fan of Conan, but Kane was my favorite Howard creation. Hope the movie is at least fun, since I doubt anyone could bring Howard's characters to the screen faithfully because of the political correctness of this age.
How about putting 3 months worth of food away?
If you don't eat it-need it, give it to a food bank later.
Did doctors of the Third Rich take the Hippocratic oath? Just wondering...
I say Hush Puppies. I dont know why this seems to fit.
Anyways nice to see regulatory reform. How progressive.
May I suggest simply rotating your stock.
I keep a year's worth of food on hand.
Another Pavlovegas billboard: "Your pets are your children too" (images of cats & dogs) "Don't abandon them"
What's a Hasher?
Sadly, the abandonment of children is already at hand.
Its a drinker with a running problem.
,rad mp,
Sorry, can't commit to canned food 24/7/365, it's a no fly zone-for now.
To be fair, when I was doing closings they were always "losing
paperwork" even when said paperwork consisted of e-mails,
which my mtg brokers buddies had proof they had sent. Incompetent
from first to last.
This isn't the army. Use freezers.
moch - I watched the Warren segment too. It should be piped into every school, business, government office for comp. viewing! But that wont happen.
mp wrote:
Also various forms of dry goods/dehydrated and oh yeah, a garden...
poic wrote:
don't be a hater
"Sorry, can't commit to canned food 24/7/365
This isn't the army. Use freezers. "
If the situation gets so bad that you need food for a year, it's very doubtful you are going to have electricity.
Half of a side of grass-fed goodness from across the river is in our freezer...
Generators.
Got a chuckle out of this:
'Penguin tourists' trapped in Antarctic ice
JD, I thought you mentioned a while back you have a year's supply of canned goods?
mp wrote:
you people I swear
where you gonna get gas
mp wrote:
Fuel.
You can probably get by running the generators a couple of hours per day to keep the freezers cool, as long as you do not open them. Depends on the climate, I guess. Keeping the fuel fresh is another challenge.
ShortCourage wrote:
Certainly seems so and history tells you repeatedly why and it ain't because of "bad behavior".
It's because our distribution of goods & servces is determined by income and somebody decidied it was a really cool idea to ship all that overseas. Not that hard to figure out, just like the RE bubble wan't hard to figure out. But guys like Mish will cheer lower incomes to the very end as "supply & demand" mandates.
I'm sure mp has an oil well & refinery.
If not a small nuke plant.
I am thinking of marketing bicycle powered microwaves. May be a niche market there...
ll - that was a good one!
Biodiesel. Fuel is polished every 3 months.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Good luck generating a kilowatt with a bicycle.
Ms Whitney's bearish call would only be noteworthy if she worked for GS and had a trading desk army with endless access to capital to short the crap out of the market. Nothingburger.
Del Mar, CA commercial real estate implosion in pictures.
vonbek, that's why I like the Discovery channel.
All the benefits, none of the pain.
We keep a year's worth of mostly canned and bottled goods, eat about 1/4 of it, and donate the rest about this time every year to our local food bank, and then buy another year's worth to replace it.
It's an insurance-gift.
And 100% of it goes to somebody in need, a win-win-win.
Hey, already have that covered in the 'results may vary' clause... Maybe get Lance Armstrong to advertise, I know one of his cousins.
So JD, if you buy one year's worth at a time, what is the ballpark cost? Just curious. Do the checkers look at you funny?
Vonbek777 wrote:
I'm thinking of digging up the plans for a wood burning generator. I'm sure they will sell well.
PastTense wrote:
Hash House Harriers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
But But But mine is more environmental friendly....no fair bringing something that will actually work to the table.
. I read that the ceramic home heating systems are making a comeback in Canada. Simple high heat transfer system developed way back in the 1700s.
"I think a sluggish / choppy recovery is the most likely scenario, and a continuation of the recession is also possible. This isn't an exact science!"
It will get worse. A lot worse!
Smoking the moderation pipe is a losing proposition, big time. Anyone who has been moderate here has had their ears boxed. The collapse of the top, the high end, and CRE, will occur. The USD is in the first 1/3 of a collapse. Gold has risen 40%. And some here are still talking "moderation".
Might, could, maybe... those are words from the "I'll rescue you" peddlers. There's a problem here. The U-Boat is sinking, not from the surface any more.
I'll take the opposite side of this bet, given the track record of the poster. The much worse opposite side, not the flat or up side.
volker the viking wrote:
That's what I was wanting to know-
Whats on second
"Generators"
The kinds of generators you get for a few hundred dollars at Home Depot won't last; you need the heavy-duty multi-thousand dollar industrial ones.
I think survivalists would be much better off patterning themselves on how people lived pre-electrification than think they can maintain a modern-techology lifestyle if the shit hits the fan.
Vonbek777 wrote:
Watt discovered DNA!
"Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/16/2009 - 4:34 pm
reply ignore user
I am thinking of marketing bicycle powered microwaves. May be a niche market there..."
Honey pedal faster. The currency crosses are going batshit tonight. I need to pop some popcorn and login to CR to see what's up.
broward wrote, "It's because our distribution of goods & servces is determined by income and somebody decidied it was a really cool idea to ship all that overseas. .... But guys like Mish will cheer lower incomes to the very end as "supply & demand" mandates."
broward, don't you think that jobs will naturally flow overseas if our incomes are out of whack with the rest of the world? You can either have wage supports, or low unemployment. Take your pick.
I realize it's more complicated than that, with currency intervention in Asia playing a big role... But still, why demonize Mish for an economic fact of life? Our wages need to be competetive with ROW, or else we'll have high unemployment (unless everybody here can work for the government, or the defense industry)...
I only started doing it a few years, and the checker does look at you funny, and ask why you are on trip #7, and you keeping buying mass quantities of pretty much the same stuff...
I suppose it costs around $1500 for 2 people doing it on the cheap (when 26 oz cans of spaghetti sauce (5 different kinds) are just 88 cents...), it's amazing how much grub you can get for almost nothing.
I'm not a survivalist, but a survivor.
And I agree with you concerning generators. That's why we built our own.
,rad mp,
I do like your style...
I feel like the checkers think I'm nuts when I buy 20 cans of Progresso soup when it's $.99 a can. I keep trying to stock up little by little, but it ends up disappearing from my cabinets. I'm a stock-up failure.
edit: That reminds me, a couple months ago smuckers was on sale for .99. Since we're pb&j users around here, I got several jars. The guy in front of me in line said -- is there something about jelly I don't know?
It just gets embarrassing...
I don't think mp has a foundry and a blast furnace set up (yet), but a high end machining capability - check
To repair the diesels.
Appendix J - know it, live it, love it
My favorite is New England Clam Chowder.
With a patty of sweet butter on top.
Specialty Insurers on the Ropes
Buy something you won't like instead, most any potted meat will suffice.
The creme de la creme though, without a doubt, is Underwood deviled ham.
It's seemingly pre-masticated looking when it comes out of the can, and it's about the only canned food i'm aware of, that's gift-wrapped.
Is it a gift, or is it really bad food?
This last weekend was time well spent. We learned a great deal.