So this might impact other countries (like Europe) more than the U.S.
I think this is especially likely if the dollar continues to weaken vs. the euro. Then the EU quite literally finds itself between a rock [dollar] & a hard place [yuan].
Sometimes in our lives we all have pain
We all have sorrow
But if we are wise
We know that there's always tomorrow
Lean on me, when you're not strong
And I'll be your friend
I'll help you carry on
For it won't be long
'Til I'm gonna need
Somebody to lean on
Please swallow your pride
If I have things you need to borrow
For no one can fill those of your needs
That you don't let show
Lean on me, when you're not strong
And I'll be your friend
I'll help you carry on
For it won't be long
'Til I'm gonna need
Somebody to lean on
If there is a load you have to bear
That you can't carry
I'm right up the road
I'll share your load
If you just call me
So just call on me brother, when you need a hand
We all need somebody to lean on
I just might have a problem that you'd understand
We all need somebody to lean on
Lean on me when you're not strong
And I'll be your friend
I'll help you carry on
For it won't be long
Till I'm gonna need
Somebody to lean on
And China is well-known for doing what other people tell her to do.
Can do whatever it wants - sort of. It can keep the RMB right where it is... as long as it continues to buy dollar [and probably euro] denominated assets with its surpluses... hope they like all that nice agency MBS, treasuries & gilts... yum!
the fed's toxic garbage is actually quite safe - the sole issue is the dollar-denominated nature, which renders any and all assets in that category pure trash
more than that, they have to bleed their reserves as they eat the negative carry between domestic interest rates and US Treasuries
that is the main reason why they were raising the stamp (stock transaction) tax, and hiking bank reserve requirements so much during the commodity boom right before the crash
I wouldn't be surprised if their famed reserves were all gone by the time this is done
China can revalue anywhere it wants -- we are still screwed. Someone pulled up the per capita GDP for China today at around $3k. If they revalue by a factor of 2, they'll be at $6k and continue to kick our ass. The real problem is that as a country we are borrowing money to buy crap that we can't afford.
If anyone amongst the PTB really gave a damn, they would put a 5 year plan in place to force the current account to balance. Exporters would receive a tradeable credit for each dollar exported, and importers would be required to supply one of those credits for each dollar's worth of goods they imported (Buffet's idea originally).
But that will never happen. Instead we'll all be fighting over cans of dog food in another 5 years. WASS.
The Administration believes in a strong dollar. They also believe all other currencies should be even stronger.
Lolol.
The Administration believes in strong dollar talk.
They also believe no bank should be too big to fail.
They also believe it takes talent for AIG to lose $180 billion. It really isn't much these days.
I wouldn't be surprised if their famed reserves were all gone by the time this is done
Possible - especially if they continue to manipulate without the resultant increase in US import demand... in other words BORROW to buy UST & MBS... then buy the dollar denominated instruments in an effort to drive yuan lower & create export demand... as opposed to running a cash surplus like now them 'investing' that [and maintaining weak RMB as a result].
Exporters would receive a tradeable credit for each dollar exported, and importers would be required to supply one of those credits for each dollar's worth of goods they imported
I am the north bay (ca). My particular area has been very resistant to downward pricing, having only dropped about 20% or so. Inventory for the last year was holding steady at about 135 units. Over the past 3 weeks inventory has dropped to 105. I'm sure this is due on part to the tax credit, but is also an indication that this market just won't let up. The wife and I were sidelined from a property we were putting an offer in on. Selling agent, working for the bank, already had 6 all cash offers for a 2 bedroom on 1 acre without a foundation. My guess is the place will go for around 450k. Wife and I estimated the property to be worth 300k given what you'd have to put into it to match it's comps.
The market here is just nuts. Looks like another year renting as we dream of our doomstead. If the market lcally doesn't drop soon, devaluation of the dollar will become too strong of an updraft on overleveraged prices...thus forestallng any significant revaluation of housing costs relative to incomes...
Very frustrating for this gen Xer with kids. My kids will be grown by the time we get a home at this rate.
the fed's toxic garbage is actually quite safe - the sole issue is the dollar-denominated nature, which renders any and all assets in that category pure trash
the Treasury has not issued the sequel to carter bonds yet, but the FDIC does guarantee debt in foreign currencies
but the real risk to the US in terms of financial stability is not debt becoming more expensive to repay (the Fed and Treasury are quite clear on the position that anything is better than deflation), but that transactions / dead-money go around the USD instead of through it. That would raise funding costs. Also, in terms of global financial market investment share the anecdote is for a US corp 2/3rds of funding is from equity/fixed income markets, 1/3rd from bank loans. In Europe and Japan those percentages are switched. Not a big deal to me, more R&D investment and less M&A. The other shift to watch for is increasing domestic prices on the basis of the US is no longer a huge and fast growing demand market. Used to be every company that was anycompany had to have a US presence, which led to cut throat competition for market share. Compare the prices of autos between countries for example. Suzuki America shutdown completely last year, German+Japanese luxury/SUV production has re-routed supply as exports to the middle east.
I make a gesture in your general direction,...what does that tell you? What does it mean?
Edit: Does it matter if I did it with my hand, foot, head, or arm?
This would devastate Bretton Woods II. America will never pay nor can they afford things that they make themselves... at least not without unwinding 30 years of economic policy
This would devastate Bretton Woods II. America will never pay nor can they afford things that they make themselves... at least not without unwinding 30 years of economic policy
We still make a lot of stuff here (movies, crappy PC OS's and software, and decent internetworking equipment), and supply a reasonable amount of commodities to the rest of the world too. We just import too much plastic crap in return. Either we get it balanced in a reasonable timeframe, or we blow up.
the treasury will not issue 'carter bonds' - they would rather 'go Weimar' at this point.
I agree with all of your points, especially the concept that these things can easily jump currencies. I was just objecting to the insinuation that the chinese/Pimco hoarding of CCC- Fed crap will necessarily end badly. It won't, in terms of default, but it may, in terms of the way that endlessly expanding balance sheet leads to a rotten dollar.
the FDIC does guarantee debt in foreign currencies
FDIC obligations are backed by the Full Faith and Credit of the US only to the extent of its borrowing authority. In the event of implosion they aren't going to let Sheila pay Pierre before Joe the plumber gets back every penny.
HollywoodHack
sorry, just ended up using your post as a departure point, didn't disagree at all. US can always produce USD legal tender on demand
even if the electricity is shut off, they can just start designating rocks for TimmyG's unsold NY home as new legal tender
You can go to any stock quote on Yahoo, click on historical prices, set a date range, then download it as an Excel spreadsheet. I wrote my own graphing function using JFreeChart and simply imported the CSV data in.
don't believe for a moment that euroland is any better shape than we are.
Except that they have a little bit of a trade surplus and their populace has saved a little bit more, over the years than USA. Also, they have a decent amount of public services to support the down and out, lower crime rates, healthier population, better primary education/health care and leadership, in general.
Senator Schumer said Indymac was in bad shape.
The Bear Stearns managers said the fund was just fine.
One was correct.
Good for Paterson. The fact is NY competes with CA to sell bonds, and both may not survive. Why should come clean about NY and lose investors to ponzi States?
FDIC obligations are backed by the Full Faith and Credit of the US only to the extent of its borrowing authority. In the event of implosion they aren't going to let Sheila pay Pierre before Joe the plumber gets back every penny.
.
The FDIC receives no Congressional appropriations – it is funded by premiums that banks and thrift institutions pay for deposit insurance coverage and from earnings on investments in U.S. Treasury securities. (Last Updated 9/29/2009) YouTube - FDICchannel Channel << Sheila's in the red, ba doom doom tsish
The demographics are no better. Social services become a drag when the demographics work against you. They've had to on board immigrants, which in europe has created an indentured underclass. Let's see what happens to their supposedly low crime rates as the depression really sets in. Nevermind their dependence on mother russia for oil and ng.
Alexander Hamilton was this nation’s first Treasury Secretary, and a defender of the central bank, high taxes, protectionist tariffs, and public debt. Each of these, according to Hamilton, would bring with them untold blessings to the American people if instituted. It was Alexander Hamilton who sought to establish the first central bank. It was Hamilton who instituted the very first “bailouts.” It was Hamilton who unapologetically doled out favors and taxpayer funds to his personal friends and business associates. It was Hamilton’s belief in the “implied powers” of the Constitution that gave us the Judicial Review, the “living” Constitution, and justices legislating from the Supreme Court bench. It was Hamilton who espoused deficit spending by the federal government. Anytime you hear a politician talking about all of the wonderful things that the federal government can do for the “public good,” chances are you are listening to a Hamiltonian.
too funny, but turbo Timmy and bubble Ben swear by a strong dollar... now if we can only find someone to do something
hmmm, can't think of anyone off hand
I just thought I would try out this 'sleep' thing that is so popular
Da Vinci, Edison, and Dali were purported to need little sleep. Although with Dali there is some doubt since he claim to be able to take a nap balancing a spoon, and would awake refreshed by the time the spoon hit the floor. Sleep Habits of Famous People
euroland is in better shape in every way except in terms of the absorption of immigrants.
they have confronted a number of serious problems which we've either ignored or utterly botched in terms of demographics, the threat of productivity to labor, etc.
i'm sure germany is having serious buyers' remorse in terms of the euro. domination of the continent is indeed a poisoned chalice, now and then.
here's China's response to the Yuan talk China should keep yuan stable: commerce ministry
| Reuters
I am surprised that it took them so long to respond to what they should have known was coming given their decisions on pollution at APEC and Copenhagen, if not their call for higher interest rates
I was talking to someone the other day about precious metal portability, I hadn't checked rhodium prices for the past couple of years but check out how the Bubble Crash just knocked the hell out of rhodium. Very interesting in light of performance of the other PMs. That's about 90% crash.
So let's say I wanted to plot the performance of a $10,000 investment (ignoring the minuscule price change from my input) in a weighted basket of metals against CPI, the S&P, and UST's. How much is involved to get a reasonable graph?
I need the known gross amount of each metal in circulation year to year, and the price change; the market cap of the paper assets; adjustment for tax and transaction costs...
How hard is it to get the program to crunch the weighting and pricing over time?
Gosh, man, I'm not really sure. The calculations themselves sound fairly easy, you could probably do it with a spreadsheet. I think the hard part will be getting all the data into a common format.
But if you had data about the price and market size of 100 benchmarks, it isn't that hard to price each one against an average basket of all others, no?
I would be shocked if no one has a cheap tool that handle it.
You should be able to import the data into a series of consecutive cells and just add calculations to generate what you want. I haven't done anything like that 15-20 years, though. it's pretty easy. You just specify Cell A1 + Cell A2 + Cell A3, etc / 100, etc. You can learn the basics in a day or two.
When you think of the tiny Earthly supply of some heavy metals and their awesome capacity to provide cheap energy and cause genocide, it's hard not to believe in some intelligent design. But of course, if uranium were as plentiful as aluminum, we'd have evolved a tolerance.
Solar, wind, wave, bio-diesel (algae); DNA computing, gutta percha (natural rubber fills root canals better than gold). Metal is shiny, but often replaceable. Every rider in the Tour de France has given up titanium for carbon.
Gold's historical value wasn't much about utility.
Oh no?
Was the Ark of the covenant a radio transmitter?
During the exodus moses and the Israelites needed a form of communication to Yahweh
reasons am saying it was a radio transmitter are (A)"Their i will meet you, and impact(talk) to you from above the cover between the two cherubs that are on top of the ark"instructions to Moses.
1:in the scriptures it state how moses was given specific instructions on how to build the ark.The box itself was made of acacia wood with gold plating, the cover to the box(most important piece) was made of solid gold, with two cherubs on each end facing one anther, which was one piece.(gold is the best conductor of electricity)the cherubs (statues of angles i guess)were to act as antennae .
Actually, rhodium sounds pretty useful and quite cheap.
The thing about these useful precious metals, though, is that they pretty much function forever. "They're not making any less of them". They retain intrinsic value but demand might be easily saturated by existing supply. But in the name of a diversified portfolio basket, all that glitters is welcome.
after last night the Duke could use a newer stronger back !
if EHP is on do you or anyone know how much of China is electrified?
here in Kampuchea it's 20% of course all focused on the cities and towns...
The industrial metals (catalysts) Rh, Pd & Pt are likely to crash (farther) with the world economy in the near future. I think they might be good long term stores of value then. Other rare earths would be good bets then too. As always, hold the metal.
How would you bury metal, next to a large piece of metal to avoid detection?
[I could never hoard an industrial metal that would otherwise lower the cost of some of the marvelous catalytic applications listed in the Wiki)
This was only completely predictable. The West wanted an open China because they thought they could crack the banking system. Now that this is unlikely, the game is heading for a nasty resolution.
1 Currency
not in province I visited... if you have money you buy a generator, one existed in the village I stayed in
like owning a Rolls Royce
.....
“these global imbalance improvements are mostly illusory — the transitory side effect of the greatest trade collapse the world has ever seen.”...
hmm, I'm having problems visualizing that... guess I'll read all the above comments to get a clue...
...
speaking of collapses definitely put the wild back in Wild Turkey, also discovered why danseurs retire at 45
because they can't lift ballerinas anymore...
still, you gotta love a country where of a bottle of Beefeater Gin cost $ 6.50.
...
good news, the Duke returns to Con Dao for a wedding on Dec 31st, now I'm working on a cunning plan
to push the Duchess's new husband off of shark teeth's cliff (cue the Grand Guginol laugh track) , that pretender
to my dukedom deserves no less a fate... duke
yogi, we're not talking about palates of copper ingots in the garage. A safe deposit box would be fine. It's not a monetary item, so even if the sky fell and you had an FDR style gold seizure it would be overlooked. Hell, most people don't even know what it is.
Seeking a stronger Chinese currency as the dollar weakens “is not conducive to a global economic recovery and is not fair,” ministry [of Commerce] spokesman Yao Jian said at a press briefing in Beijing today. “It’s necessary for us to provide a stable and predictable environment in terms of macro-economic and exchange rate policies.”
Chinese leadership statements about how US dollar devaluation and calls for yuan appreciation are unfair, are utter garbage. These statements are for domestic consumption. If the yuan appreciates, Chinese exports will be crushed. If China stops buying Treasuries, the current account surplus drives inflation in China to the sky.
This was only completely predictable. The West wanted an open China because they thought they could crack the banking system. Now that this is unlikely, the game is heading for a nasty resolution.
Now we're getting to the point. Hank Paulson made loads of trips to China to try and pry it open for GS. He failed because they saw him coming. By keeping the GS moles out, the PBOC has retained it's sovereignty. I have a feeling that Wall Street figured it could roll (infiltrate) these guys like they were some tiny 3rd world country. Now they're stuck.
"low dollar interest rates pose a particular problem for China. Its dollar purchases had been, and may still be, running at levels so high as to make it impossible to sterilize the purchases. The net effect is that they wind up importing our loose money policy to the degree that they cannot fully sterilize the dollar purchases they make to suppress the value of their currency. Some recent reports (admittedly anecdotal) suggest inflation in China is running at 15%, which is the upper limits of what the population will tolerate. So the Fed’s policy is of even more immediate interest to China."
I don't doubt that Chinese top policy makers have personal dollar holdings that influence their actions. Ben and Timmy aren't robots, and the IMF aren't doing "god's work" either.
But let's be frank: using currency revaluation to correct a trade imbalance is fraud on its face.
"Did I agree to work 40 hours a week? Just make the hour 50 minutes and we have a deal."
(红日) in Beijing this is slang for an anus, literally meaning "red sun", references the Flag of Japan
....
imagine if we had such terms in the USA that you could use publicly... call a Mexican a Beaner and see what happens... rice rocket - a western term for young 'working girl'
If China stops buying Treasuries, the current account surplus drives inflation in China to the sky.
Can they not spend dollars to import oil, metal, beans, while transitioning to a more stable trade currency? How are they better off with a devalued dollar than with inflation? They may be stuck holding the 2 trillion bag but it doesn't mean they shouldn't call a fraud a fraud.
Actually, perhaps they have been rolled. They've got two trillion IOU's they can't cash in without blowing up the system. We can stop buying their stuff but they can't stop buying our federal debt without blowout inflation.
DannyHSDad
your handle tells me your way past your bedtime... don't they do bed checks in your house?
"honey, I'll be write there... a few more minutes dear and I'll have cured cancer"
*The U.S. trade deficit has been closely correlated to Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW, aka "Home ATM"), *
CR, you got it wrong, its not MEW, its foreign financing that drives the trade deficit. Last few years, foreign financing went into MEW, now it goes into Treasuries.
When the banker shaves the edge of the coin, the farmer uses a slightly smaller basket.
Remember Newman's poker hand in the Sting? China just pegs and lets the dollar make the first move. No, I see this as the IMF losing even more credibility among fair-minded observers.
China can revalue anywhere it wants -- we are still screwed. Someone pulled up the per capita GDP for China today at around $3k. If they revalue by a factor of 2, they'll be at $6k and continue to kick our ass. The real problem is that as a country we are borrowing money to buy crap that we can't afford.
Actually, no, with 6k/capita they are not very much competitive anymore on the foreign markets. Margins are already razor tight on Chinese exports goods.
One final thought, then it's No one should spend one thin dime investing in Japanese multinationals like Hitachi. You'd be as well off setting a stack of cash on fire.
The main reason for this new equity issuance is that the Japanese government is near the limit on its issuance of debt at ultra low rates. And therefore can't issue bonds and pump the proceeds into domestic equity. They need to use future debt to pay interest on existing debt, and to pay for government spending.
Well certainly IMF and World Bank are a joke at this point. And it's definitely high stakes poker. My thing is just that when Chinese authorities are making these statements that are laughable, somebody somewhere needs to put into print "That's a load of horse manurre". Now it's
But it was in reaction to an absurd statement from the IMF.
"Let us devalue the already weak dollar, so when we pay back the debt, it won't go as far".
--" OK, then let us devalue the yuan"
--"Stop copying me"
--"Stop cheating"
--"The IMF even says cut it out"
--" I will if you will"
Vietnam is at about 1,900 per capita. banks will convert the Dong at 18,600 and the black market (Chinese gold shops)
is paying over 20,000 - that's 25% leap since 2005.
interesting info
Gabor
Hey, Li, that damned stochastic oscillator looks jammed on June settings. Huh? Well I don't know, see if it's stuck or something. Wha? No, I didn't get the memo on fundamentals. Mentals, yep, heard about Chanos, but not the other kind. Well just see what you can do.
Evidently, in San Francisco up until the 20th C you could be slipped a mickey and wake up an impressed merchant marine. If you were lucky they'd drop you on Shanghai where you might snag a return trip.
So you're saying the IMF sent Shanghai off on a ponzi, or the Chinese saying ; or the Japanese "growth" of something, most likely debt?
Worker output per hour rose at a 9.5 percent annual rate for [Q3], the fastest in six years, according to Labor Department figures released Nov. 5 in Washington.
...
Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, earned $404 million, or 64 cents a share, in the third quarter, far surpassing the analysts’ forecast of 5 cents a share.
The Peoria, Illinois-based company, which saw sales fall 44 percent to $7.3 billion in the period, has slashed inventories and production and cut about 37,400 full-time and temporary workers since December 2008. Its stock closed at $58.78 on Nov. 13, up 165 percent since the March 2 low of $22.17.
The Fed’s promise to keep interest rates very low is also helping to buttress stock prices.
...
“The Fed doesn’t raise rates while the unemployment rate is rising,” says Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.
"Let us devalue the already weak dollar, so when we pay back the debt, it won't go as far".
--" OK, then let us devalue the yuan"
--"Stop copying me"
--"Stop cheating"
--"The IMF even says cut it out"
--"I will if you will"
LOL Yogi, you gave me a good laugh (much needed) Lest we forget another large holder of USTs and GSEs is Japan in dollar denominations. The world is awash with dollars. By the second half of next year I don't think any of it is going to matter much, seriously as CRE losses begins to hit balance sheets in earnest, including the FDIC.
It really surprised me that the very large sale of gold by the IMF was bought in its entirety by India to help the Rupee. Russia is also selling a lot of physical gold which I expect China will buy as they are hoarding metals of all types. Russia and China are getting cozy, very cozy and cutting some sweet deals with each other for ng and oil lines.
Eventually, chaos in the FX markets will mean all hands on deck. I can't see how this will stabilize without a lot of pain for everyone.
Imagine how much CAT they could "earn" if they cut all the jobs and sales.
This one very sick and twisted way that supply-side economics has evolved to mean something other than what it really is. Real productivity and contribution to the GDP is smoke and mirrors and dependent on schemes, tricks and slight of accounting hands., Wonder how long the disconnection can continue? But oh, I forgot, whats good for stock market is good for everyone. right? lol, good work yogi.
So the lean and mean work force is producing profit faster than ever, but with no wage gains to show given the reserve army of the unemployed, not to mention UAW leverage busted in BK, and State revenues dissolving.
Just one question, Lords Blankfein, Dimon and Co.: with ALL the productivity gain from cutting jobs going to profits,
-----how is Joe Pitchfork going to pay you back what he owes you?
he's just going to work harder and produce more stuff that nobody can afford to buy.
Check out word counts. "Recession" is moving to trend reversal and appears to be mired in a permanent elevated state while "green shoots" faded out quickly by the end of summer.
I think the percentage bet is that by Christmas, there will be major sentiment reversal.
Perhaps a little after Christmas.
I put up the previous recession graph for comparison purposes.
They both have the double top pattern but this current recession is close to showing a reversal that didn't happen in 2001.
Many borrowers are being charged more than double on some loans relative to what banks pay for funds. A five-year auto- loan rate was 4.49 percentage points higher on Nov. 13 than the rate on a similar-maturity certificate of deposit that a bank can sell to raise cash, according to Bankrate.com data. That is up from an average of 2.05 percentage points in the five years through 2007. Spreads between so-called jumbo 30-year mortgages and 10-year Treasuries averaged 2.49 percentage points, up from 1.58 percentage points in the same period.
How "innovative". The bank goes to a backroom window to get cash at .25%. Or it threatens a big panic so that the FDIC/Treasury rushes in to guarantee money market cd's., creating the impression that they'll do it again if need be, and bringing down rates.
Now they can lend out cash at double spreads, presumably to borrowers the more prudent lenders turned down, or just some sucker who doesn't understand that a compounded difference of 2% for 5 years or 1% for 30 is worth googling every bank rate in the world. The defaults will just be swept into a bad bank or toxic derivative or if they blow up there's still TBTF, even bigger.
Double spreads... That will create jobs. Thanks, Ben.
"The U.S. trade deficit has been closely correlated to Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW, aka "Home ATM"), and I doubt MEW is coming back soon, so I'm not sure we will see a huge increase in the deficit this time"
The current account deficit is always equal to the net borrowing of the nation, not only households. The U.S. government borrowing is and will probably continue to be the driver of the current account deficit this time.
The article's interesting and perhaps correct in its forecast. But China may not be cooking the statistics in quite the fashion described. Brad S pointed out back in his CFR days that those 'sales' figures have always been what we would report as production or manufacturing statistics. Goods which have entered the distribution network, i.e., wholesale, export, inventory, have always been reported as sales. Not a problem a few years ago when they essentially were or soon would be just that.
Now, of course, it would be excessively interesting to see them broken out in the same form and meaning we use.
Good morning gabyjan. I found hard evidence that I'm not nuts regarding inflation in the bottom line at the grocery store this year in inflation. I guess no one is going to be happy until every penny we have is gone, but then what? We've become China as employers slash benefits, hours and wages; not the other way around enabling Chinas massive population to live more comfortable existences. In the huge population centers there are those who have benefited but like the US, its a tiny percent of their overall population.
Rising commodity prices means that people on assistance are doubly challenged. People who are fortunate enough to bear the price have less to spend elsewhere.
I took the time to watch Food Inc. on youtube yesterday. I highly recommend it to all. Don't be eating lunch when you watch it.
"Just one question, Lords Blankfein, Dimon and Co.: with ALL the productivity gain from cutting jobs going to profits.'
"Adapt Asian laws, sons and daughters are responsible for the debts of the father." Slavery, company towns, and debtor's prisons without slavery, company towns, and debtor's prisons.
Problem is that China's oil consumption isn't really flat. Oct09 is 10% up compared to Oct08.
YTD Chinese refinery output is up big time 1mbpd to 8 mbpd, it usually takes 3 years for China to jump 1mbpd. (However there was a drop last year end, so net demand growth is lower.)
So I would not dismiss those numbers entirely.
nan00
morning to you, yeah grocery shopping is getting harder and harder and taking longer and longer if you check prices etc etc.
sure the greedies want every penny in the country,always have and always will. just their nature and when after they got all ours the start going after "theirs" and that will be more interesting. we'll get by
the key words being "get by" got to decide what your get by is. best luck to all of us,just us not the "they or them" but you got to admit this sure is interesting times.
about chinese gas comsumption. maybe chinese drive like i do,go to town once a week,get $5.gas on town day and thats it. dont drive car down the block ,around the corner, or to the mailbox.
Even if China appreciates RMB, jobs won't come back to this country. Jobs will only go to other countries, like Vietnam, India, Mexico.... but never back to the State.
My second point: If RMB appreciates, the trade deficit will only go up, NOT down. We should thank for China because they make so much cheap stuff for our daily consumptions. Without them, we turn to buy the same stuff manufactured in other countries but at higher prices.
China and many developing countries like India are not so keen in buying our treasuries. They are more interested in tangible assets like gold, copper and technology. I believe it will eventually push the rate up.
trash 1024
you know you are right about mostly everything you say, the jobs will eventually get back here to the states.
dont forget that there are a lot of american companies in china making cheap stuff for us and in other countries too, i dont know much about the last bit but i would think that they will still be buying our higher education unless thats under technology.
edit for insert "but" after comma in 1st sentence. thank you
China is hoarding fuel, metals, etc. Even Paulson took them to task about not reporting their reserve capacity. The runup in oil in '08 was in part because of China amassing and storing it prior to the olympics. No one knows what their capacity, reserves are. They have cut a deal with Russia for direct oil lines. They are also building coal fired plants for electricity production at a stunning rate.
China's stimulus for economic expansion over the last 2 years is double of the next highest. One difference in their stimulus efforts is theirs was direct to produce jobs and expand/improve infrastructure. However, I see tid-bits about on the net that life in China isn't good as consumers worldwide, not just in the US, are retiring debt if they can or BK, credit is tight worldwide and of course using a home like an ATM or flipping houses isn't possible in the US now to fuel consumption.
So, who knows how this is going to turn out. I'm resigned to the fact our government isn't ours anymore. Its bought and paid for and now indebted by astronomical amounts, beholding to the nations who lend to us. For all the talk of efficiencies of markets and workers, the inefficiencies of rewarding TBTF institutions with lavish gifts via the taxpayer is a luxury we can't afford.
My worries return to Mr. and Ms. American worker. My thoughts are with the tens of millions of people who are the collateral damage and remain unseen and unheard.
Hey,
GM had its best Q in years! Lost only $1.15BB. I guess washing away $75 billion in promises via fast-track BK does wonders for your balance sheet. Hope the managers get big bonuses so they'll stay. Next Q's target: lose under a billion! If the workers could just get a little more productive...
So, who knows how this is going to turn out. I'm resigned to the fact our government isn't ours anymore.
This does fascinate me.....why are people so irritated by the government while simultaneously realizing that said government is controlled by so many interests more powerful that the voters?
krugman is a funny guy, but I don't like that kind of funny. He was talking about the increased savings rate in this country, and lo and behold, the trade deficit report comes in last week showing that it was exploding up again. That's sum dum kind of savings! Ha, ha, ha, ha. Now he wants to spend 300 billion. Since you can't tax the upper 1% because paying taxes is for the little people, but the little people no longer have any money, where, pray tell, will this 300 billion come from? We need bigger, better, more efficient, and more productive printing presses, I mean, didn't we just post an increased productivity of 9.5% for the last 2 quarters. Ha,ha,ha,ha. I see the headlines this morning read: "Obama Strong Words for China". Watch the trade deficit to get the real answer my friends. Better yet, tell Bernanke to print up 6 trillion dollars, give it to our creditors, tell them to go spend it, or STFU!
Because my wages were confiscated by the government with the guarantee that those wages would be applied towards common societal goals and needs guided by the Constitution and representative of the citizens of the States. Some of us foolish voters and taxpayers are still coming to terms with the fact we are not a free society or nation anymore; that we are powerless to change it. So, we are irritated, upset and angry with government and those who bought our government. We are still free to do that, at least for now.
I found that documentary, Food Inc., interesting as muzzles were put on farmers working for big AG and even a segment of the documentary was 'banned' from youtube. No reason given.
excellent work gabyjan! Caribbean banking centers are #4? hummm thats interesting. I imagine the Netherlands are the biggest buyers there but that is surely a strange designation.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
The Administration believes in a strong dollar. They also believe all other currencies should be even stronger
Yes, contrary to the evidence before us, it's actually a race to the top.
It's a race to the top. With a scenic detour to the bottom. For several hundred years or so.
Well, not every large private sector public company vehicle maker can be a gem like Caterpillar, whose stock is up 165% since March and earned a whopping 64 cents/share.
What they did was cut yoy sales by 44% so they could cut 37,000 jobs and keep the productive survivors from asking for a raise. Innovation, competition, private profits, hurray.
Elizabeth Warren in an interview on PBS's "Now" show yesterday said that with this bailout of the banks and wall street, moral hazard was just squared. I would like to say it another way. Debt now has no meaning. Look at all the people walking away from all kinds of debt in the US. Ask the credit card companies. We even have strategic defaults NOW. The whole system is being gamed not only by the make believe creditors, but also the debtors
Unfortunately my model currency can not ever be used as toilet paper. But you will be less likely to get the runs watching your stored wealth devalue overnight.
Sound to me like its time for CAT to put some 8 year olds to work and pay them with a bunk bed and soup at the end of a 12 hour shift to innovate some more for that 'competitive edge' in the global marketplace.
Elizabeth Warren in an interview on PBS's "Now" show yesterday said that with this bailout of the banks and wall street, moral hazard was just squared. I would like to say it another way. Debt now has no meaning.
Yeah, they don't want to be in the position the Isle of Man found themselves in within the Icelandic banks where they are short on cash. Kind of similar to what Asian banks did after the 1990s crash there.
t r orwell
no ones paying their debts, now i know where the million jobs are going to come from,debt collection agencies.
we all going to be debt collectors!!!!!!!
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Capital Corp. plans to sell five-year Islamic bonds in dollars in its first Shariah compliant debt offer, according to two bankers involved in the transaction.
The unit of General Electric Co., the world’s biggest provider of energy equipment and services, hired Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC, and the Bahrain-based Liquidity Management Centre BSC to manage the sale, according to bankers who declined to be identified because the transaction isn’t complete yet.
The Islamic bonds, or sukuk, will be sold through GE Capital Sukuk Ltd. and the issue will be of a benchmark size, which usually means $500 million or more, the bankers said.
Ah yes, another downward revision for September retail sales! A pretty large revision at that; -2.3% versus prior GUESS of -1.5% Yet another report trying to pump the theory when none is there!
......when Mom & Pop didn't have to sit down in front of the local banker asking for a loan anymore, things started slipping in the wrong direction real fast. Take the embarrassment out of borrowing money and turn it into a successful business model.......welcome to its effect - 2010.
And China is well-known for doing what other people tell her to do.
The United States of America does not need a stronger currency?
So this might impact other countries (like Europe) more than the U.S.
Agreed. The financial crisis is not abating, not for us.
yogi,
The Administration believes in a strong dollar. They also believe all other currencies should be even stronger.
hard to think of a less relevant source of any opinion whatsoever than the world bank/IMF bozos in the post-wolfowitz era
CR Sez...
I think this is especially likely if the dollar continues to weaken vs. the euro. Then the EU quite literally finds itself between a rock [dollar] & a hard place [yuan].
YouTube - Bill Withers 'Lean on Me'
Strauss-Kahn is speaking more for the French than he is speaking for the US at the moment
ECB is pulling their hair out
Nemo wrote:
Can do whatever it wants - sort of. It can keep the RMB right where it is... as long as it continues to buy dollar [and probably euro] denominated assets with its surpluses... hope they like all that nice agency MBS, treasuries & gilts... yum!
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Absolutely - EU is now ground zero for wage rate arbitrage... now the US is pretty well 'mined out'.
the fed's toxic garbage is actually quite safe - the sole issue is the dollar-denominated nature, which renders any and all assets in that category pure trash
ZH has been hyperventilating over this... sort of.
don't believe for a moment that euroland is any better shape than we are.
more than that, they have to bleed their reserves as they eat the negative carry between domestic interest rates and US Treasuries
that is the main reason why they were raising the stamp (stock transaction) tax, and hiking bank reserve requirements so much during the commodity boom right before the crash
I wouldn't be surprised if their famed reserves were all gone by the time this is done
RockyR wrote:
I am much more handsome and strong like an ox, I would never think such a thing
China can revalue anywhere it wants -- we are still screwed. Someone pulled up the per capita GDP for China today at around $3k. If they revalue by a factor of 2, they'll be at $6k and continue to kick our ass. The real problem is that as a country we are borrowing money to buy crap that we can't afford.
If anyone amongst the PTB really gave a damn, they would put a 5 year plan in place to force the current account to balance. Exporters would receive a tradeable credit for each dollar exported, and importers would be required to supply one of those credits for each dollar's worth of goods they imported (Buffet's idea originally).
But that will never happen. Instead we'll all be fighting over cans of dog food in another 5 years. WASS.
germany is in much better shape than us. france, a bit better off. the rest, meh.
Lolol.
The Administration believes in strong dollar talk.
They also believe no bank should be too big to fail.
They also believe it takes talent for AIG to lose $180 billion. It really isn't much these days.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Possible - especially if they continue to manipulate without the resultant increase in US import demand... in other words BORROW to buy UST & MBS... then buy the dollar denominated instruments in an effort to drive yuan lower & create export demand... as opposed to running a cash surplus like now them 'investing' that [and maintaining weak RMB as a result].
Anything is possible.
Does the IMF chief know how to bow?
MLM wrote:
"Trade & Cap"???
This currency nonsense is a drag on the world's productive economy.
One currency, now!
Local housing market update:
I am the north bay (ca). My particular area has been very resistant to downward pricing, having only dropped about 20% or so. Inventory for the last year was holding steady at about 135 units. Over the past 3 weeks inventory has dropped to 105. I'm sure this is due on part to the tax credit, but is also an indication that this market just won't let up. The wife and I were sidelined from a property we were putting an offer in on. Selling agent, working for the bank, already had 6 all cash offers for a 2 bedroom on 1 acre without a foundation. My guess is the place will go for around 450k. Wife and I estimated the property to be worth 300k given what you'd have to put into it to match it's comps.
The market here is just nuts. Looks like another year renting as we dream of our doomstead. If the market lcally doesn't drop soon, devaluation of the dollar will become too strong of an updraft on overleveraged prices...thus forestallng any significant revaluation of housing costs relative to incomes...
Very frustrating for this gen Xer with kids. My kids will be grown by the time we get a home at this rate.
HollywoodHack wrote:
the Treasury has not issued the sequel to carter bonds yet, but the FDIC does guarantee debt in foreign currencies
but the real risk to the US in terms of financial stability is not debt becoming more expensive to repay (the Fed and Treasury are quite clear on the position that anything is better than deflation), but that transactions / dead-money go around the USD instead of through it. That would raise funding costs. Also, in terms of global financial market investment share the anecdote is for a US corp 2/3rds of funding is from equity/fixed income markets, 1/3rd from bank loans. In Europe and Japan those percentages are switched. Not a big deal to me, more R&D investment and less M&A. The other shift to watch for is increasing domestic prices on the basis of the US is no longer a huge and fast growing demand market. Used to be every company that was anycompany had to have a US presence, which led to cut throat competition for market share. Compare the prices of autos between countries for example. Suzuki America shutdown completely last year, German+Japanese luxury/SUV production has re-routed supply as exports to the middle east.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Yep. Or, a cap on unsustainable trade...
REBear wrote:
I make a gesture in your general direction,...what does that tell you? What does it mean?
Edit: Does it matter if I did it with my hand, foot, head, or arm?
Sorry if I chased you away EHP.
good night
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
oui, oui, henri.
Which reminds me: broward did you remember that site/program that enables easy plotting/weighting of x in yz/2, etc.?
Do US IMF members owe allegiance to the Constitution?
This would devastate Bretton Woods II. America will never pay nor can they afford things that they make themselves... at least not without unwinding 30 years of economic policy
sdtfs wrote:
A gesture that tries to soften the truth makes me believe you are scared.
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
We still make a lot of stuff here (movies, crappy PC OS's and software, and decent internetworking equipment), and supply a reasonable amount of commodities to the rest of the world too. We just import too much plastic crap in return. Either we get it balanced in a reasonable timeframe, or we blow up.
CR, did you attend this meeting with the treasury?
the treasury will not issue 'carter bonds' - they would rather 'go Weimar' at this point.
I agree with all of your points, especially the concept that these things can easily jump currencies. I was just objecting to the insinuation that the chinese/Pimco hoarding of CCC- Fed crap will necessarily end badly. It won't, in terms of default, but it may, in terms of the way that endlessly expanding balance sheet leads to a rotten dollar.
New York governor sees risk of California bond default | Money & Company | Los Angeles Times
This kinda made me chuckle in more ways than one. Hey Gov. fix NY and let the BHO worry about CA falling out of the Dem. party's lap
FDIC obligations are backed by the Full Faith and Credit of the US only to the extent of its borrowing authority. In the event of implosion they aren't going to let Sheila pay Pierre before Joe the plumber gets back every penny.
Governor Paterson mentioned CA because he wants the public to take his warnings about NYS going broke before Christmas seriously.
Someone has to tell Arnold he has no clothes. Even a blind man can see it.
HollywoodHack wrote:
I think Italy is a pretty good comparison for the U.S. in many ways.
Gold 1,129.00 12.30 1.10
WTF? This is going to get interesting.
On balance, I'd rather be a country that exports food vs. one that exports plastic crap. But hey, that's just me.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
In the kingdom of illusions, only the blind man can perceive.
HollywoodHack
sorry, just ended up using your post as a departure point, didn't disagree at all. US can always produce USD legal tender on demand
even if the electricity is shut off, they can just start designating rocks for TimmyG's unsold NY home as new legal tender
Why's that, bh?
sdtfs wrote:
you didn't chase me away that I'm aware of, I just thought I would try out this 'sleep' thing that is so popular
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
I didn't use Yahoo but I used the same process to create my wordcount vs stock price / pm price charts like tihs one for palladium.
http://www.realmeme.com/Main/miner/investment/palladiumDejanews.png
You can go to any stock quote on Yahoo, click on historical prices, set a date range, then download it as an Excel spreadsheet. I wrote my own graphing function using JFreeChart and simply imported the CSV data in.
RockyR wrote:
Except that they have a little bit of a trade surplus and their populace has saved a little bit more, over the years than USA. Also, they have a decent amount of public services to support the down and out, lower crime rates, healthier population, better primary education/health care and leadership, in general.
Senator Schumer said Indymac was in bad shape.
The Bear Stearns managers said the fund was just fine.
One was correct.
Good for Paterson. The fact is NY competes with CA to sell bonds, and both may not survive. Why should come clean about NY and lose investors to ponzi States?
The global credit pandemic hit the weak and vulnerable first it is now working on government institutions. the final stage IMO
RockyR wrote:
Because a "bubble" or flight to physical gold, destroys debt and has some very interesting secondary impacts.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
.
Thanks, bh, I'll try to tinker with it, although I never learned excel.
The demographics are no better. Social services become a drag when the demographics work against you. They've had to on board immigrants, which in europe has created an indentured underclass. Let's see what happens to their supposedly low crime rates as the depression really sets in. Nevermind their dependence on mother russia for oil and ng.
Sounds to me like they have familiar problems.
You don' t need excel, I just imported them as CSV.
Do you know any programming?
It took me a couple of days to write the import and display using JFreeChart.
Alexander Hamilton was this nation’s first Treasury Secretary, and a defender of the central bank, high taxes, protectionist tariffs, and public debt. Each of these, according to Hamilton, would bring with them untold blessings to the American people if instituted. It was Alexander Hamilton who sought to establish the first central bank. It was Hamilton who instituted the very first “bailouts.” It was Hamilton who unapologetically doled out favors and taxpayer funds to his personal friends and business associates. It was Hamilton’s belief in the “implied powers” of the Constitution that gave us the Judicial Review, the “living” Constitution, and justices legislating from the Supreme Court bench. It was Hamilton who espoused deficit spending by the federal government. Anytime you hear a politician talking about all of the wonderful things that the federal government can do for the “public good,” chances are you are listening to a Hamiltonian.
Ehp have you been following my FDIC
?
They have an emergency line of credit with Treasury for $100BB and can apply for up to $500BB. They insure or guarantee several TT already, maybe ten.
too funny, but turbo Timmy and bubble Ben swear by a strong dollar... now if we can only find someone to do something
hmmm, can't think of anyone off hand
Just reading about this the past week. Will you challenge Timmay to a duel?
• GM posts loss, vows to repay U.S. early
| Reuters
• Remember when I said corp Japan was in trouble? here is the update on the Hitachi share issue, Hitachi to raise $4.6 billion to boost capital; stock falls
| Reuters
• Remember earlier tonight when I suggested Japan's GDP was leaked? Japan's trade minister careless for leaking GDP: PM
| Reuters
• if anyone wants some leisurely reading, Asia times has its 3rd part of its retrospective on China out, Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong
News and Business. I make no promises as to the profoundness or neutrality
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Da Vinci, Edison, and Dali were purported to need little sleep. Although with Dali there is some doubt since he claim to be able to take a nap balancing a spoon, and would awake refreshed by the time the spoon hit the floor.
Sleep Habits of Famous People
bh my programming is minimal. (Once tried to learn COBOL, didn't). My math skills are good.
I don't want to reinvent the algorithm, although my nickname was briefly al qworezmi.
yogi
I thought it was safe to use sarcasm over such matters here
euroland is in better shape in every way except in terms of the absorption of immigrants.
they have confronted a number of serious problems which we've either ignored or utterly botched in terms of demographics, the threat of productivity to labor, etc.
i'm sure germany is having serious buyers' remorse in terms of the euro. domination of the continent is indeed a poisoned chalice, now and then.
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
sorry, playing a poker tourney online...
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Why am I soft in the middle?
YouTube - Paul Simon - You Can Call Me Al (En Vivo!)
here's China's response to the Yuan talk China should keep yuan stable: commerce ministry
| Reuters
I am surprised that it took them so long to respond to what they should have known was coming given their decisions on pollution at APEC and Copenhagen, if not their call for higher interest rates
That would be John Marshall.
Was going out with Betty when that song came out.
Well, in that case, I believe that Excel will do graph of that CSV file with a little effort.
Yes, you can just import a simple X/Y chart and create a graph in Excel, it took me about a minute to figure it out.
There is some chatter about china revaluing the Yuan.
China revalue peg
fresbee
You can start publishing your own articles at publish at Investing Contrarian
I was talking to someone the other day about precious metal portability, I hadn't checked rhodium prices for the past couple of years but check out how the Bubble Crash just knocked the hell out of rhodium. Very interesting in light of performance of the other PMs. That's about 90% crash.
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/rh1825lnb.gif
So let's say I wanted to plot the performance of a $10,000 investment (ignoring the minuscule price change from my input) in a weighted basket of metals against CPI, the S&P, and UST's. How much is involved to get a reasonable graph?
I need the known gross amount of each metal in circulation year to year, and the price change; the market cap of the paper assets; adjustment for tax and transaction costs...
How hard is it to get the program to crunch the weighting and pricing over time?
Gosh, man, I'm not really sure. The calculations themselves sound fairly easy, you could probably do it with a spreadsheet. I think the hard part will be getting all the data into a common format.
afaik, rhodium bullion doesn't exist. i think the kitco pool was real, however.
Yeah formatting is a maze to me.
What is rhodium good for? Does tantalum trade?
Rhodium - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
just one of three platinum group metals
But if you had data about the price and market size of 100 benchmarks, it isn't that hard to price each one against an average basket of all others, no?
I would be shocked if no one has a cheap tool that handle it.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Looking at that chart and HH's link,...I'd say the manufacture of Pergo flooring.
You should be able to import the data into a series of consecutive cells and just add calculations to generate what you want. I haven't done anything like that 15-20 years, though. it's pretty easy. You just specify Cell A1 + Cell A2 + Cell A3, etc / 100, etc. You can learn the basics in a day or two.
When you think of the tiny Earthly supply of some heavy metals and their awesome capacity to provide cheap energy and cause genocide, it's hard not to believe in some intelligent design. But of course, if uranium were as plentiful as aluminum, we'd have evolved a tolerance.
Solar, wind, wave, bio-diesel (algae); DNA computing, gutta percha (natural rubber fills root canals better than gold). Metal is shiny, but often replaceable. Every rider in the Tour de France has given up titanium for carbon.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Gold's historical value wasn't much about utility.
broward wrote:
Oh no?
Lest you doubt, I got it from the Internet.
Actually, rhodium sounds pretty useful and quite cheap.
The thing about these useful precious metals, though, is that they pretty much function forever. "They're not making any less of them". They retain intrinsic value but demand might be easily saturated by existing supply. But in the name of a diversified portfolio basket, all that glitters is welcome.
after last night the Duke could use a newer stronger back !
if EHP is on do you or anyone know how much of China is electrified?
here in Kampuchea it's 20% of course all focused on the cities and towns...
The industrial metals (catalysts) Rh, Pd & Pt are likely to crash (farther) with the world economy in the near future. I think they might be good long term stores of value then. Other rare earths would be good bets then too. As always, hold the metal.
Hold the metal in a metal safe or underground?
How would you bury metal, next to a large piece of metal to avoid detection?
[I could never hoard an industrial metal that would otherwise lower the cost of some of the marvelous catalytic applications listed in the Wiki)
Duke, I thought the women there were all petite?
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
he was referring to height, not weight.
Do the rural 80% have hand crank radios at least?
This was only completely predictable. The West wanted an open China because they thought they could crack the banking system. Now that this is unlikely, the game is heading for a nasty resolution.
1 Currency
not in province I visited... if you have money you buy a generator, one existed in the village I stayed in
like owning a Rolls Royce
.....
“these global imbalance improvements are mostly illusory — the transitory side effect of the greatest trade collapse the world has ever seen.”...
duke
hmm, I'm having problems visualizing that... guess I'll read all the above comments to get a clue...
...
speaking of collapses definitely put the wild back in Wild Turkey, also discovered why danseurs retire at 45
because they can't lift ballerinas anymore...
still, you gotta love a country where of a bottle of Beefeater Gin cost $ 6.50.
...
good news, the Duke returns to Con Dao for a wedding on Dec 31st, now I'm working on a cunning plan
to push the Duchess's new husband off of shark teeth's cliff (cue the Grand Guginol laugh track) , that pretender
to my dukedom deserves no less a fate...
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
yogi, we're not talking about palates of copper ingots in the garage. A safe deposit box would be fine. It's not a monetary item, so even if the sky fell and you had an FDR style gold seizure it would be overlooked. Hell, most people don't even know what it is.
OK on topic:
China Trade Ministry Says Yuan Gains Call ‘Not Fair’ (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
It really can't be stated any clearer. The US owes China 2 trillion dollars, not yuan. Of course they want to destroy its value.
Chinese leadership statements about how US dollar devaluation and calls for yuan appreciation are unfair, are utter garbage. These statements are for domestic consumption. If the yuan appreciates, Chinese exports will be crushed. If China stops buying Treasuries, the current account surplus drives inflation in China to the sky.
I currency
you mean the US wants to inflate out of it or to make China revalue their currency. to which Hu told Obama (去吃大便)
purple wrote:
Now we're getting to the point. Hank Paulson made loads of trips to China to try and pry it open for GS. He failed because they saw him coming. By keeping the GS moles out, the PBOC has retained it's sovereignty. I have a feeling that Wall Street figured it could roll (infiltrate) these guys like they were some tiny 3rd world country. Now they're stuck.
Naked Capitalism states it well:
"low dollar interest rates pose a particular problem for China. Its dollar purchases had been, and may still be, running at levels so high as to make it impossible to sterilize the purchases. The net effect is that they wind up importing our loose money policy to the degree that they cannot fully sterilize the dollar purchases they make to suppress the value of their currency. Some recent reports (admittedly anecdotal) suggest inflation in China is running at 15%, which is the upper limits of what the population will tolerate. So the Fed’s policy is of even more immediate interest to China."
China Lambastes Dollar “Carry Trade,” Diverting Attention from Its Currency Manipulation « naked capitalism
I don't doubt that Chinese top policy makers have personal dollar holdings that influence their actions. Ben and Timmy aren't robots, and the IMF aren't doing "god's work" either.
But let's be frank: using currency revaluation to correct a trade imbalance is fraud on its face.
"Did I agree to work 40 hours a week? Just make the hour 50 minutes and we have a deal."
EEngineer wrote:
The New World Order was never going to work.
I can't believe they ever thought that Russia or China or India or Brazil or the Arabs would just roll over.
It's an amazing aspect of today that historians will marvel about.
(红日) in Beijing this is slang for an anus, literally meaning "red sun", references the Flag of Japan
....
imagine if we had such terms in the USA that you could use publicly... call a Mexican a Beaner and see what happens...
rice rocket - a western term for young 'working girl'
Can they not spend dollars to import oil, metal, beans, while transitioning to a more stable trade currency? How are they better off with a devalued dollar than with inflation? They may be stuck holding the 2 trillion bag but it doesn't mean they shouldn't call a fraud a fraud.
Actually, perhaps they have been rolled. They've got two trillion IOU's they can't cash in without blowing up the system. We can stop buying their stuff but they can't stop buying our federal debt without blowout inflation.
DannyHSDad
your handle tells me your way past your bedtime... don't they do bed checks in your house?
"honey, I'll be write there... a few more minutes dear and I'll have cured cancer"
They have to admit that the devalued yuan is a fraud as well.
*The U.S. trade deficit has been closely correlated to Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW, aka "Home ATM"), *
CR, you got it wrong, its not MEW, its foreign financing that drives the trade deficit. Last few years, foreign financing went into MEW, now it goes into Treasuries.
rosethorn wrote:
Do you really think they're going to do what our gov't tells them to do?
When the banker shaves the edge of the coin, the farmer uses a slightly smaller basket.
Remember Newman's poker hand in the Sting? China just pegs and lets the dollar make the first move. No, I see this as the IMF losing even more credibility among fair-minded observers.
Actually, no, with 6k/capita they are not very much competitive anymore on the foreign markets. Margins are already razor tight on Chinese exports goods.
One final thought, then it's
No one should spend one thin dime investing in Japanese multinationals like Hitachi. You'd be as well off setting a stack of cash on fire.
The main reason for this new equity issuance is that the Japanese government is near the limit on its issuance of debt at ultra low rates. And therefore can't issue bonds and pump the proceeds into domestic equity. They need to use future debt to pay interest on existing debt, and to pay for government spending.
Well certainly IMF and World Bank are a joke at this point. And it's definitely high stakes poker. My thing is just that when Chinese authorities are making these statements that are laughable, somebody somewhere needs to put into print "That's a load of horse manurre". Now it's
rosethorn wrote:
Many ways around this.
Convert it to perpetuity at 0.1% interest rate.
But it was in reaction to an absurd statement from the IMF.
"Let us devalue the already weak dollar, so when we pay back the debt, it won't go as far".
--" OK, then let us devalue the yuan"
--"Stop copying me"
--"Stop cheating"
--"The IMF even says cut it out"
--" I will if you will"
Vietnam is at about 1,900 per capita. banks will convert the Dong at 18,600 and the black market (Chinese gold shops)
is paying over 20,000 - that's 25% leap since 2005.
interesting info
Gabor
And thus Shanghai rockets 3% up on the day's developments. Jeebus.
Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
Hey, Li, that damned stochastic oscillator looks jammed on June settings. Huh? Well I don't know, see if it's stuck or something. Wha? No, I didn't get the memo on fundamentals. Mentals, yep, heard about Chanos, but not the other kind. Well just see what you can do.
C
Late entries to get Shanghaied?
Evidently, in San Francisco up until the 20th C you could be slipped a mickey and wake up an impressed merchant marine. If you were lucky they'd drop you on Shanghai where you might snag a return trip.
So you're saying the IMF sent Shanghai off on a ponzi, or the Chinese saying
; or the Japanese "growth" of something, most likely debt?
Prolly impressed to pay the opium den debts they'd nodded out at...
C
Bernanke Lunches on Wall Street as Job Losses Mount (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Sometimes the numbers provide the twisted irony all on their own. Imagine how much CAT they could "earn" if they cut all the jobs and sales.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
LOL Yogi, you gave me a good laugh (much needed) Lest we forget another large holder of USTs and GSEs is Japan in dollar denominations. The world is awash with dollars. By the second half of next year I don't think any of it is going to matter much, seriously as CRE losses begins to hit balance sheets in earnest, including the FDIC.
It really surprised me that the very large sale of gold by the IMF was bought in its entirety by India to help the Rupee. Russia is also selling a lot of physical gold which I expect China will buy as they are hoarding metals of all types. Russia and China are getting cozy, very cozy and cutting some sweet deals with each other for ng and oil lines.
Eventually, chaos in the FX markets will mean all hands on deck. I can't see how this will stabilize without a lot of pain for everyone.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
This one very sick and twisted way that supply-side economics has evolved to mean something other than what it really is. Real productivity and contribution to the GDP is smoke and mirrors and dependent on schemes, tricks and slight of accounting hands., Wonder how long the disconnection can continue? But oh, I forgot, whats good for stock market is good for everyone. right? lol, good work yogi.
So the lean and mean work force is producing profit faster than ever, but with no wage gains to show given the reserve army of the unemployed, not to mention UAW leverage busted in BK, and State revenues dissolving.
Just one question, Lords Blankfein, Dimon and Co.: with ALL the productivity gain from cutting jobs going to profits,
-----how is Joe Pitchfork going to pay you back what he owes you?
he's just going to work harder and produce more stuff that nobody can afford to buy.
Check out word counts. "Recession" is moving to trend reversal and appears to be mired in a permanent elevated state while "green shoots" faded out quickly by the end of summer.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=permanent_midnight
broward - soooo, short manic depression, long Palin? Is there an ETF for that? Like collateralized currency pairs?
C
I don't know.
I think the percentage bet is that by Christmas, there will be major sentiment reversal.
Perhaps a little after Christmas.
I put up the previous recession graph for comparison purposes.
They both have the double top pattern but this current recession is close to showing a reversal that didn't happen in 2001.
blackhalo@2.24a
what secondary impacts? those are the most interesting ones arent they cause few think of them?
How "innovative". The bank goes to a backroom window to get cash at .25%. Or it threatens a big panic so that the FDIC/Treasury rushes in to guarantee money market cd's., creating the impression that they'll do it again if need be, and bringing down rates.
Now they can lend out cash at double spreads, presumably to borrowers the more prudent lenders turned down, or just some sucker who doesn't understand that a compounded difference of 2% for 5 years or 1% for 30 is worth googling every bank rate in the world. The defaults will just be swept into a bad bank or toxic derivative or if they blow up there's still TBTF, even bigger.
Double spreads...
That will create jobs. Thanks, Ben.
Is China headed toward collapse? - Eamon Javers - POLITICO.com
"There is simply too much stuff, too many stores and no buyers"
"The U.S. trade deficit has been closely correlated to Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW, aka "Home ATM"), and I doubt MEW is coming back soon, so I'm not sure we will see a huge increase in the deficit this time"
The current account deficit is always equal to the net borrowing of the nation, not only households. The U.S. government borrowing is and will probably continue to be the driver of the current account deficit this time.
good morning all
The worst is yet to come: Unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses
broward,
The article's interesting and perhaps correct in its forecast. But China may not be cooking the statistics in quite the fashion described. Brad S pointed out back in his CFR days that those 'sales' figures have always been what we would report as production or manufacturing statistics. Goods which have entered the distribution network, i.e., wholesale, export, inventory, have always been reported as sales. Not a problem a few years ago when they essentially were or soon would be just that.
Now, of course, it would be excessively interesting to see them broken out in the same form and meaning we use.
Good morning gabyjan. I found hard evidence that I'm not nuts regarding inflation in the bottom line at the grocery store this year in inflation. I guess no one is going to be happy until every penny we have is gone, but then what? We've become China as employers slash benefits, hours and wages; not the other way around enabling Chinas massive population to live more comfortable existences. In the huge population centers there are those who have benefited but like the US, its a tiny percent of their overall population.
Rising commodity prices means that people on assistance are doubly challenged. People who are fortunate enough to bear the price have less to spend elsewhere.
I took the time to watch Food Inc. on youtube yesterday. I highly recommend it to all. Don't be eating lunch when you watch it.
"Just one question, Lords Blankfein, Dimon and Co.: with ALL the productivity gain from cutting jobs going to profits.'
"Adapt Asian laws, sons and daughters are responsible for the debts of the father." Slavery, company towns, and debtor's prisons without slavery, company towns, and debtor's prisons.
Problem is that China's oil consumption isn't really flat. Oct09 is 10% up compared to Oct08.
YTD Chinese refinery output is up big time 1mbpd to 8 mbpd, it usually takes 3 years for China to jump 1mbpd. (However there was a drop last year end, so net demand growth is lower.)
So I would not dismiss those numbers entirely.
nan00
morning to you, yeah grocery shopping is getting harder and harder and taking longer and longer if you check prices etc etc.
sure the greedies want every penny in the country,always have and always will. just their nature and when after they got all ours the start going after "theirs" and that will be more interesting. we'll get by
the key words being "get by" got to decide what your get by is. best luck to all of us,just us not the "they or them" but you got to admit this sure is interesting times.
about chinese gas comsumption. maybe chinese drive like i do,go to town once a week,get $5.gas on town day and thats it. dont drive car down the block ,around the corner, or to the mailbox.
Even if China appreciates RMB, jobs won't come back to this country. Jobs will only go to other countries, like Vietnam, India, Mexico.... but never back to the State.
My second point: If RMB appreciates, the trade deficit will only go up, NOT down. We should thank for China because they make so much cheap stuff for our daily consumptions. Without them, we turn to buy the same stuff manufactured in other countries but at higher prices.
China and many developing countries like India are not so keen in buying our treasuries. They are more interested in tangible assets like gold, copper and technology. I believe it will eventually push the rate up.
trash 1024
you know you are right about mostly everything you say, the jobs will eventually get back here to the states.
dont forget that there are a lot of american companies in china making cheap stuff for us and in other countries too, i dont know much about the last bit but i would think that they will still be buying our higher education unless thats under technology.
edit for insert "but" after comma in 1st sentence. thank you
China is hoarding fuel, metals, etc. Even Paulson took them to task about not reporting their reserve capacity. The runup in oil in '08 was in part because of China amassing and storing it prior to the olympics. No one knows what their capacity, reserves are. They have cut a deal with Russia for direct oil lines. They are also building coal fired plants for electricity production at a stunning rate.
China's stimulus for economic expansion over the last 2 years is double of the next highest. One difference in their stimulus efforts is theirs was direct to produce jobs and expand/improve infrastructure. However, I see tid-bits about on the net that life in China isn't good as consumers worldwide, not just in the US, are retiring debt if they can or BK, credit is tight worldwide and of course using a home like an ATM or flipping houses isn't possible in the US now to fuel consumption.
So, who knows how this is going to turn out. I'm resigned to the fact our government isn't ours anymore. Its bought and paid for and now indebted by astronomical amounts, beholding to the nations who lend to us. For all the talk of efficiencies of markets and workers, the inefficiencies of rewarding TBTF institutions with lavish gifts via the taxpayer is a luxury we can't afford.
My worries return to Mr. and Ms. American worker. My thoughts are with the tens of millions of people who are the collateral damage and remain unseen and unheard.
Hey,
GM had its best Q in years! Lost only $1.15BB. I guess washing away $75 billion in promises via fast-track BK does wonders for your balance sheet. Hope the managers get big bonuses so they'll stay. Next Q's target: lose under a billion! If the workers could just get a little more productive...
GM Generates $3.3 Billion, Will Start Repaying Loans (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
This does fascinate me.....why are people so irritated by the government while simultaneously realizing that said government is controlled by so many interests more powerful that the voters?
this an exciting event or a ho hum one
CIT default swap auction to be held on November 20
| Reuters
GM.........another well-managed FedGov owned company (61%). How can ANYONE take US seriously?
another up, up, and away day in equities
YouTube - World Record Bubble Blower
krugman is a funny guy, but I don't like that kind of funny. He was talking about the increased savings rate in this country, and lo and behold, the trade deficit report comes in last week showing that it was exploding up again. That's sum dum kind of savings! Ha, ha, ha, ha. Now he wants to spend 300 billion. Since you can't tax the upper 1% because paying taxes is for the little people, but the little people no longer have any money, where, pray tell, will this 300 billion come from? We need bigger, better, more efficient, and more productive printing presses, I mean, didn't we just post an increased productivity of 9.5% for the last 2 quarters. Ha,ha,ha,ha. I see the headlines this morning read: "Obama Strong Words for China". Watch the trade deficit to get the real answer my friends. Better yet, tell Bernanke to print up 6 trillion dollars, give it to our creditors, tell them to go spend it, or STFU!
Depends if AIG wrote protection to GS on CIT.
the model, the practice of international free trade between countries that have different currencies makes so much sense
that i would like to propose
that each of the fifty states be allowed to create their own currency
and that traders be allowed to speculate on those currencies relative exchange rates
and write options and futures contracts on those currency exchange rates
while some states peg their currency to a neighbors or if they want, peg to a state all the way across the country
now doesnt that make so much sense!
mock turtle, that makes perfect sense to me, but I'm prejudiced. It's so Orwellian!
Because my wages were confiscated by the government with the guarantee that those wages would be applied towards common societal goals and needs guided by the Constitution and representative of the citizens of the States. Some of us foolish voters and taxpayers are still coming to terms with the fact we are not a free society or nation anymore; that we are powerless to change it. So, we are irritated, upset and angry with government and those who bought our government. We are still free to do that, at least for now.
I found that documentary, Food Inc., interesting as muzzles were put on farmers working for big AG and even a segment of the documentary was 'banned' from youtube. No reason given.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Yes, contrary to the evidence before us, it's actually a race to the top.
meet the holders
http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
treasury securities
mock turtle wrote:
I have some used toilet paper....can we use that for California?
of course
1 currency now yogi
is eponymous on this idea
not the toilet paper idea
but the one currency idea
or uh maybe both?
excellent work gabyjan! Caribbean banking centers are #4? hummm thats interesting. I imagine the Netherlands are the biggest buyers there but that is surely a strange designation.
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:
It's a race to the top. With a scenic detour to the bottom. For several hundred years or so.
nanoo
nah google did it,i just asked for it hehehe
BlackRock: Central Banks To Be Net Buyers of Gold
BlackRock: Central Banks To Be Net Buyers of Gold - CNBC
Well, not every large private sector public company vehicle maker can be a gem like Caterpillar, whose stock is up 165% since March and earned a whopping 64 cents/share.
What they did was cut yoy sales by 44% so they could cut 37,000 jobs and keep the productive survivors from asking for a raise. Innovation, competition, private profits, hurray.
Elizabeth Warren in an interview on PBS's "Now" show yesterday said that with this bailout of the banks and wall street, moral hazard was just squared. I would like to say it another way. Debt now has no meaning. Look at all the people walking away from all kinds of debt in the US. Ask the credit card companies. We even have strategic defaults NOW. The whole system is being gamed not only by the make believe creditors, but also the debtors
Unfortunately my model currency can not ever be used as toilet paper. But you will be less likely to get the runs watching your stored wealth devalue overnight.
Sound to me like its time for CAT to put some 8 year olds to work and pay them with a bunk bed and soup at the end of a 12 hour shift to innovate some more for that 'competitive edge' in the global marketplace.
N.Y.-area factory-sector gauge retreats in November from 5-year high
#
U.S. Nov. Empire State index 23.5 vs 34.6 Oct
t r orwell wrote:
Debt has no meaning=currencies have no meaning.
wow
just think how much momey cat could have made if they cut 90% of their employees
and
reduced sales an additional 44%
theyd be king of the world!
U.S. retail sales down 1.7% in past year
U.S. Sept. retail sales revised to -2.3% vs. -1.5%
U.S. Oct. retail sales ex-autos up 0.2% vs. 0.3%
U.S. Oct. retail sales up 1.4% vs. 1.0% expected
MarketWatch.com Search
Nanoo - Offshore banking, I imagine.
1 currency
the bottom line wins again,same for fear and greed, yep good old american way.
mock, the Chinese minister I quoted above had it clear as a bell.
I'd like to see the UAW say, "We'll stick to the 40-hour week we signed for, but we're making the hour 48 minutes from now on."
thank you burnside, thats what I was thinking. Doesn't Citi have a boatload of operations there? Thats one of the stories I lost in my HD crash.
which is worse- bankers or terrorists, exactly. You nailed it, figuratively, of course.
burnside wrote:
Yeah, they don't want to be in the position the Isle of Man found themselves in within the Icelandic banks where they are short on cash. Kind of similar to what Asian banks did after the 1990s crash there.
t r orwell wrote:
My guess is price discovery is going to be a bit more difficult when we go back to barter. But I'm just an architect.
t r orwell
no ones paying their debts, now i know where the million jobs are going to come from,debt collection agencies.
we all going to be debt collectors!!!!!!!
Nanoo - I wasn't thinking of dark pools in particular, just that genre of offshoring. Andorra. Channel Islands.
Evil
alert:
full story here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_iPANQ7bHbw&pos=6
gabyjan wrote:
Eventually, pitchforks will be a thriving business.
nanoo
uh huh the they is going after the they hehehe
Ah yes, another downward revision for September retail sales! A pretty large revision at that; -2.3% versus prior GUESS of -1.5% Yet another report trying to pump the
theory when none is there!
......when Mom & Pop didn't have to sit down in front of the local banker asking for a loan anymore, things started slipping in the wrong direction real fast. Take the embarrassment out of borrowing money and turn it into a successful business model.......welcome to its effect - 2010.