Housing Starts and Vacant Units: No "V" Shaped Recovery
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Sun, 11/15/2009 - 5:59pm (264 comments)
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The bevelled mortar joints are exquisite.
Historical significance aside, the marble countertops, wall to wall corian tile, and spa-inspired master-bathroom is what sold me on it, though apparently the houses next to it got wiped out in a mudslide and the power lines go right through the master bedroom and bath... I think I've made an excellent investment. Hold on, I think the hill next to us is on fire again...
False alarm, the pot farm in the neighboring REO just caught fire. DEA agents or something.
This suggests unemployment might peak in Spring or Summer 2010. However, since I expect the housing recovery to be sluggish, I also expect unemployment to remain high throughout 2010.
CR - You don't seem to be concerned about a double dip, are you?
If bonds crash, and the US is forced to raise rates, there will be a ZETA-shaped recovery. You do not want that.
I also thought folks were nuts to promote a "V" recovery. Then I started watching "V" on ABC and now I understand what they mean. Damn alien lizards on CNBC.
ok, barfly, i generally agree with you. Texas should no longer be part of the US. there. we are in agreement.
*taps mic*
Is this thing on?
Robotic Hamsters Sell Out at Walmart as Season’s Must-Have Toy - Bloomberg.com
The consumer returns! We're saved!
UE peak in Summer 2010? Hmmm...when are the elections again? I don't see millions of jobs created even with PK's billions.
cinco and longwaver, I get your drift, but I'm talking about the CEO's and shareholders who benefitted from off-shoring all our jobs in the first place, not the poor slobs who became overextended trying to keep up - Somehow I get the feeling you always want to put this all on the back of the working man -
No, type LOUDER.
Rajesh wrote:
YouTube - Robotic Hamster from SEGA
we have hit a new low
MrM, yes I'm concerned. The two usual engines of recovery are housing and consumer spending, and I don't see either being strong engines of growth. I'm not sure the normal relationship for the timing between housing starts and unemployment will hold either - since I expect a weak / sluggish recovery for housing. We could see unemployment rise all next year (although I expect another stimulus package aimed at jobs).
I tried to outline my views last week (with possible upside and downside risks).
best wishes
Plantagenet wrote:
They'll have two choices -- (a) raise rates to attract the money or (b) print it themselves. The problem with (a) is that little deflationary spiral thing EHP mentioned last thread. The problem with (b) is the commodity inflation / asset deflation thing longwaver mentioned last thread.
Choose your poison.
Robotic Hamsters Sell Out at Walmart as Season’s Must-Have Toy
YAY! um... I mean... er.....
Edit: And they have 3 factories in China. We really can't make the hamsters here?
RockyR wrote:
I am getting all my friends the Obama Chia
drugstore.com: Obama Chia Pet - Determined Pose Limited
sorry. this one is better:
YouTube - Hamster Mania!
hahaha
CalculatedRisk wrote:
and, what about robot hamsters?
Yeah...imagine if housing starts had a relationship with ability to pay with no mortgage trickery...
RockyR wrote:
Considering Texas has a balanced budget, a fairly buoyant economy, and lower taxes (with equivalent services) than most states I'd expect a lot of Texans would agree.
We spent the day up in San Francisco and on a lark took a look at Rincon 1 condo.
It's a "bargain". 860 sq feet for 820k plus 700/mos hoa. Amazing views I must say. But hot damn almost 1000/ sq foot!!!!
Rajesh wrote:
Maybe not...
Some parents are resorting to Amazon.com, where the critters sell for at least twice the $8-to-$10 price
Ha! Some thing will always do well!
Time will cure all problems ... and eventually enough new households will form and the housing overhang will be reduced - and the economy will start growing well again. But not any time soon ...
best to all
The unemployment rate in the U.S. will have a relationship with Dollar devaluation and what comes after that...
Time will cure all problems ...
Because everyone will be dead...
Stop trying to harsh our unrestrained dooming with your restrained optimism!
CR,
Can you refresh our memories regarding any relationship between CRE and employment. IOW, won't CRE crashing years after RRE lengthen the entire episode?
Thank you, CR
I was surprised by mentioning that unemployment would peak around mid 2010
And if the unemployment continues to rise throughout 2010 then the consumer confidence and consumer spend are likely to dip, there will be little new investment and the economy is likely to stumble, with or without government programs (which at some point will look like acts of desperation unless there is comprehensive reform behind them).
CR-
Your first chart plots a rate in units (housing starts) and a rate in percentage (vacancies). If the vacancy rate is converted to units, how does that compare with the housing starts, and perhaps even more interesting would be to compare vacancies with the actual number of housing units in existence.
This would provide some color in terms of absolute numbers of overbuild and how it compares with the past.
I think it's admirable that CR retains his somewhat optimistic outlook given the tsunami of
that washes over the commentariat regularly.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
In the long term, anyway.
Meanwhile, there is
ing to be done!
Great graphs, thanks! I printed them as 4x6 photos to post on my tack board tomorrow morning.
Gold is at $1123.20
The price pattern looks distressingly familiar.
You must be smoking
. Texas ranks near the bottom in education, childhood issues and most health issues.
They are nice.
dreams
The Golden State isn't worth it - Los Angeles Times
Another right wing propaganda outlet like Fox News.
Roubini:
The long-term picture for workers and families is even worse than current job loss numbers alone would suggest. Now as a way of sharing the pain, many firms are telling their workers to cut hours, take furloughs and accept lower wages. Specifically, that fall in hours worked is equivalent to another 3 million full time jobs lost on top of the 7.5 million jobs formally lost.
This is very bad news but we must face facts. Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs. Recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs are fully out-sourceable over time to other countries.
Other measures tell the same ugly story: The average length of unemployment is at an all time high; the ratio of job applicants to vacancies is 6 to 1; initial claims are down but continued claims are very high and now millions of unemployed are resorting to the exceptional extended unemployment benefits programs and are staying in them longer.
Based on my best judgment, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more.
Roubini Global Economics - Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor
The LA Times is decidedly left wing.
Demilitarizing the economic spending zone...
Checked the link on last thread about the 'Global Distribution of Military Expenditure 2008' and the U.S. spent 41.5% of the global total...
There is some real money to be found or not spent anyway IF that expenditure could be reduced...
Sam Zell is a lefty?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
sadly, most don't.
edit: wait?!?! did I just say that out loud???
What the Zell are you talking about?
gimme a v will get you
This http://www.wpimg.com/pk/landing/banner_landing.jpg or
or this http://wakarimasenlol.com/wp-content/gallery/madobe-nanami/madobenanami-no-av.jpg
or maybe this http://media.photobucket.com/image/give%20me%20a%20v/lovefromsweden/smokenude.jpg
RockyR wrote:
It's a big state, so you can have a lot without having most.
Obama’s Job Plan is lame
Economist's View: "Unlike the New Deal, Obama’s Plan does not put People on the Public Payroll"
Two-thirds of the stimulus went toward tax cuts, fiscal aid to states, and expanded unemployment benefits and food stamps. These efforts helped cushion the recession’s blow, saved public jobs and, by injecting demand into the economy, bolstered employment indirectly.
The remaining third of the stimulus, however, was expected to be the real jobs generator: $250 billion for infrastructure — roads, transit, water treatment — and for investments in energy efficiency, broadband access and other areas. But it is becoming clear that much of that spending is not producing many new jobs. ...
Administration officials argue that these investments, if done right, will lay the groundwork for growth for years to come. And they say that given the depth of the recession, it’s hardly a bad thing for the stimulus to deliver some punch a year or two from now. ... Summers said. "We designed the Recovery Act to ramp up over time, through 2010, and to make sure that the investments we made were important for the country’s future."
The Worst is yet to Come: Unemployed Americans Should Hunker Down for More Job Losses
RGE - The Worst is yet to Come: Unemployed Americans Should Hunker Down for More Job Losses
see above
Synpopsis of what been discussed by posters here ( sorry forgot who to credit so jump in )
For most baby boomers 50+ that think they're going to retire at 62 or 65 for the good life well Think again
However, those born between around 1975 and 2000 are really, truly screwed.
Those born since 2000 will end up OK since we'll have devalued/digested the worst of it by 2030 or so ( when they enter their peak earnings ) and they'll also have the benefit of significantly lower expectations and standards.
aleister,
Re: Roubini - unemployment will 'peak at 11%'...based on official stats?...reducing labor costs (and reducing labor) in the U.S. has been a long process called globalization and also (of course) a process of technological solutions to productivity efficiency utilizing machines replacing human beings for automated assembly and this has been ongoing now for some time...how does the 11% figure come to NR as a prediction...crystal ball of endless stimulus and a drastic return to human labor without loss of employment to outsourcing also?
Just out of curiosity: have 'big banks' ever led the US out of recession?
I just watched Maxed Out last night and got a flash back to GWB. I'm still recovering from the memory.
Gotta say that GWB cancels out all the positives out of Texas.
California thought it had better services that Texas, but when it came time to pay the piper, the state discovered:
It was paying more for services than Texas was, but it wasn't getting any better services, and it couldn't afford to pay for the services that it was getting.
I could probably go out and buy a really expensive house, with the right financing. But when it came time to service the loan, pay the taxes, maintain the grounds.... I couldn't afford to live in it.
This is distressingly familiar.
Calculated Risk wrote:
Time will cure all problems ... and eventually enough new households will form and the housing overhang will be reduced - and the economy will start growing well again. But not any time soon ..
Some things never come back. Did Roman empire ever restore itself? And when after the Soviet Union collapse their economy and society went into free fall it hit the bottom, but never came back for most people.
I think America is in its final years and it won't come back. See when a country falls apart households, families, steady economic growth are a thing of the past. It may never come back at all, especially given that baby bloomers have thoroughly squandered away the country left to them by generations of their ancestors. Delusional optimism will not lead to anything good this time around.
I think its possible unemployment will finally stabilize in 2010. However, I believe that there won't be a sudden increase in jobs. Unemployment will no longer be increasing but will sit at the drastic level for months. A second stimilus could end up hurting more than helping.
UnrealEstate,
What about the Green Economy with self sufficiency and localism(local production & distribution of goods & services) as strategies for future communities...don't hear much of the environmentalist strategies any more in the chatter...but we hear the Global Warming gloom & doom...what happened to years of Green planning for these issues of over-consumption which is now an obsession to get people back into over-spending from present under-consumption...is this an opportunity for Change from Industrial and financialization waste?
wow,
lot of interesting monikers in the user list.
-so I am having some problems with the date/time signatures on Hoocoodanode.
merchants of fear wrote:
Yeah, pretty funny eh... the Administration apparently wants environmentally friendly over-consumption.
wow... It's exceptionally
-y in here this fine Sunday evening. This oughta fix that:
YouTube - Happy Tree Friends - Popcorn Video: Spin Fun Knowin' Ya
note bunny slipper reference
Ok, doomers.
Combine the Happy Tree Friends with the Ludvico technique...
And you'll all be a much better frame of mind.
km4 wrote:
Unless we have to eat them. Nothing personal you understand, just the final stages of free market capitalism, allocating resources efficiently based on ability to pay. A whole new phase of "the rich get richer and the poor get children."
@ sm_landlord
This is much better YouTube - Ten Years After - 50,000 Miles Beneath my Brain
Personally, I have grave doubts as to whether another stimulus package is politically do-able.
The gloom & doom themes and fear of The End of the World is preparing the public for centralized spending solutions with limited trickle down benefits for the masses(of debt peons and unemployed) and the Greater Rewards reserved for the Last Standing economic organizations and corporations...a concentration of power and resources...and accumulation of remaining assets into a govt./fed/wall st. partnership...the Green solutions are just so 70's...
I have to repost this as it truly is eye opening
multimediafinal
If UE stays at 11% who is going to provide the tax revenue to keep at least 10% of the workforce employed in state, county, or city jobs?
Maybe this is the Soylent Green solution...
nova wrote:
Who needs tax revenue when Ben is on call for printing duty?
Yup I hate to say it but it's almost certain ( unless a populist 3rd party comes to power before 2020 ) that you had prepare for transition to biggest banana republic in world....
Dr. Doom is going to lose his monicker at this rate. 11% UE? He needs to bump it up to stay in the center of the Doom
It's not do-able with S&P over 1000. But if TPTB decide to crash the market a bit...
Also, I'm more than little weary of those who accuse people like me of
There's something out there called reality. And reality isn't all
I just read today that the county I live in is planning on cutting the Parks and Library budgets.
mp wrote:
I think it's pretty clearly not do-able under that label, which is why they are now talking about a "jobs" package. But the administration has wasted so much time dithering and has so little to show for it that they probably can't pass much of a jobs package at this point either.
So I guess we will just see more cash for bankers programs, because that seems to be the only thing the executive brach has the power to do without congressional approval.
mp wrote:
You are one of the more optimistic people posting here. At least you are doing something about your situation instead of whining about it.
mp, conjure's clock? Conjure, himself? Mad Max? Concrete? You have done as much to spread the meme as anyone here - just sayin'
sm_landlord wrote:
The pattern is the Swiss Ladder, the most bullish of all chart formations. If 100% of your investments were in gold, you would call it refreshingly familiar.
Opposition, From Right and Left - NY Times
or 98% of Americans sucka 
Obama loses Maddow and Olberman he is screwed
So O is it
+1
He should never have bowed to the Japanese Emperor.
Plantagenet wrote:
If 100% of my investments were in gold, I would not be able to sleep at night. As it is, over 50% of my stock investments are leveraged to PMs. And I'm having trouble sleeping at night.
sm_landlord wrote:
Is there an ideal positioning that would not cause you to lose sleep in this environment?
Since it's Sunday and the Spooz futures are soaring again on globex, perhaps you'd care to join me in
The Lloyd's Prayer
Our Chairman,
Who Art At Goldman,
Blankfein Be Thy Name.
The Rally's Come. God's Work Be Done
On Earth As There's No Fear Of Correction.
Give Us This Day Our Daily Gains,
And Bankrupt Our Competitors
As You Taught Lehman and Bear Their Lessons.
And Bring Us Not Under Indictment.
For Thine Is The Treasury,
The House And The Senate
Forever and Ever.
Goldman.</i>
Is there an ideal positioning that would not cause you to lose sleep in this environment?
75% Treasuries, 25% REIT's have me sleeping okay. The REIT's were an accident too
sm-landlord...
damn...I would be snoring like a log....obviously you weren't trying to short on pivots the last 6 months...
People who believed in Obama (who were warned) and now are disenchanted are like the Bush/Cheney true believers (who were warned) and many of those took 8 long years (and many tears) to become disenchanted...never underestimate the Power of the Media and internet to support Their Man...
nova wrote:
What should have O done? It isn't like he is pulling a MacArthur and returning to oversee his dominion. Besides, it wouldn't hurt for Americans to see our leaders subjugated to foreign customs since we are in the middle of a China/Japan sandwich.
Shake hands.
yagij wrote:
I doubt it. When the people who run the financial system are flailing around like this, and the politicians are flailing around like this, and so many flat-out crazy proposals are being taken seriously, I have trouble generating confidence in much of anything.
But I think you knew the answer before you asked the question
We all just have to keep on doing the best we can, and hope that sanity prevails. Meanwhile, plan for trouble. Which is why I like mp's approach.
Rajesh wrote:
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Heh. No. But I have been making adjustments, of course.
This is why cats have nothing on dogs!
Dog Goes Nuts During Soldier Homecoming Video
True but the emergence of The Semantic Web Semantic Web - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ( with the BIG assumption that there's good enough uptake by Americans ) will sink the MSM
PS - I make my living as an advisor to companies in the Semtech space
For October and November they are gonna have to come up with a
darker shade of black.
nova wrote:
Just be thankful that he didn't fall down to his knees and touch his forehead to the ground. When the PotUS is keeping the emperor's sandals inside his shirt to keep them warm, then maybe our fellow Americans will wake up to the possibility that things aren't peaceful in Americanland.
"I am not good at deciphering things like this. "
kids want pets. Pets are messy. Kids who live in apartments or upscale houses cannot have messy pets. Problem solved.
Ok, my cats would never do that.
The Hamsters are cheap ($8). That's the real story.
yagij wrote:
O should have done what an American President does, since the founding, because of the founding, and not bowed to royalty. When Obama relies on his uninformed judgment, he does us all great disservice. My representative should not be bowing to any royalty.
Did you see the old photos of Dick Cheney standing ramrod straight with the Emperor? I don't want Cheney back, but at least he did that.
A nod sufficed for Henry IV to Thomas Becket; a polite nod is what the Japanese emperor should have received.
Hope to glod, O does not pimp Taiwan to the Chinese. He is getting used to bowing a little too much for my comfort zone.
km4, even Michael Moore has given Obama an ultimatum. Either all the US troops come home from Iraq and Afghanistan by May, 2010 or Moore is leaving the Obama camp. Hu will be left?
Would Jefferson have bowed before the King of England?
I. don't. think. so.
SNAFU wrote:
It is past that point. The Taiwanese have made our measure and are returning the to Chinese orbit unilaterally.
Frankly I am pleased, since it reduces the chance of a moronic war.
+100
Well said. This guy needs to be in the line of sight of a teleprompter at all times.
Plantagenet wrote:
Again, maybe Americans will finally wake up and see that things are changing.
.
Do I approve of it? Nope.
Do I want to encourage it? Nope.
Do I want my fellow Americans to finally do a gut check and realize what it means to be an "American"? Yep.
.
It was dumb on O's part, but he is Whore-in-Chief for American policies and oligarchies that we cannot afford. Either die on your feet or whore out on your knees is a sense of pride that is covered in many cultures across the world...
@ t r orwell (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 11/15/2009 - 7:28 pm
Bingo !
I'm sick and tired of his shuck and jive in this connotation Urban Dictionary: shuck and jive
Not the whole truth; or manipulating something to get it your way.
Wait a gol derned minute.
Bowing is this Japanese thing. Japanese do it to
each other all the time, and I don't think it means one
things the other is king.
I read to not to even try to bow because you will
never get the nuances right.
No foot kissing was involved was it?
yagij, actually Obama should have done a replay of the elder bush schtick and committed an act of perfect vomition. It doesn't get any better than that.
My ad now wants me to buy granite countertops.
What is with this Bowing crap
Many still don't get it, do they? Here, let me explain it ... slowly. American Presidents do not bow to foreign leaders. They don't do it. Never have. They don't show disrespect in failing to bow, but rather honor their own country's traditions and norms.
To bow signifies servility. I give not one aorta ! how you want to spin it, that's what it is.
So again, my slow friends, it is not protocol for Presidents to bow. And hey, look! No one else does either! What a frigging shocker.
When the American President humiliates himself in this manner, he humiliates the country he represents.
So let's ask ourselves: Why does Obama break with two centuries of tradition and go bowing all over the world? Because he thinks America is too big for its britches, that's why. He thinks America needs to be taken down a peg, and he shows it in everything he says and does, all over the world.
At least when the Sissy In Chief bowed to the King of Saudia Arabia, his press people tried to make off that he didn't ... really. Maybe they should have said he was honoring Japanese tradition.
Barry is a bum; throw the bum out.
mp wrote:
Jefferson actively fought against the King of England. I'm not sure Obama has done anything that can even remotely be viewed as risky or hazardous. I don't think Obama could lead a war against Mexico without his handlers giving him a sucker and a pat on the head.
Stim IV in early 2011 Gold 2000
Stim V in late-mid 2011 Gold 2500-3000
Continuing Depression, 2009-2013 Gold 5000 - 6000
Lost Generation
Depression Ends When Debt is Effectively Chopped Down to 30% of It's Peak 2007 #.
True but the emergence of The Semantic Web Semantic Web - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ( with the BIG assumption that there's good enough uptake by Americans ) will sink the MSM
But is it realtime or 2.0? I Think Not.
My ad now wants me to buy granite countertops.
They will be the new form of currency.
Obama should be bowing to no one, except perhaps the Emperor's wife -
Nah, too big and heavy.
LawyerLiz wrote:
Right on Liz. You are the one attorney that I would hire if I ever need one in FLA.
Guys, get a grip on reality. If I came to YOUR house I would follow your rules. Jesus H Christ.
nova wrote:
That's nightmare material.
Actually it's Web 3.0 with real time predictive analytics and complex event processing but I'm not going to get any deeper
This is the guy I want to support.
Yu needs to hear from:
United States Secretary of Energy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
shill wrote:
Americans are lacking a sense of pride and sensibilities to be "humiliated". Again, I don't want anyone here to infer that I approve of it or am ignorant in regards to the ways that PotUS has conducted themselves over two centuries. However as a country, we fought and died to preserve and protect that sense of pride and sensibilities. Nowadays, I cannot get anyone I know to express any public outrage in regards to what the government has done over the past year (close family excluded). I can only pray that this behavior actually makes people open up to the idea that we aren't where we need to be as a country.
.
If they don't, I'm willing to see what it will take to piss off the masses who call themselves "Americans"--in a fatalistic sort of way.
before the Great Depression, all economic retreats were called depressions. they changed the name after because there was too much stigma attached
what will they be called after the Great Recession?
economic staycations?
intermissions?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Great Disintegration is kinda neat. You get the GD part without the nasty D word.
slumdog, being in the government garment industry and with prices like that, will making clothes with silk and gold threads for the emperor still be affordable, but more importantly, practical?
Nuke,
Left a reply to your question from way earlier today in the Krugman thread. Here it is - I can't figure out how to link to a particular post.
Nuke - saw your post asking about the link from the last thread. I'm just getting caught up now. Recovery.gov shows a small business association loan to RINGSIDE COLLECTIBLES WWE Toy Wrestling Action Figures, Jakks Pacific, Classic Superstars Action Fig. It is in the amount of $689,000.
Hopefully I captured this link correctly - Project Summary
That pales in comparision to the $2+ million that went to the local school district
Recipient Project Summary
t r orwell wrote:
It definitely showed who the Top Dog was in that situation. It is a close second to getting shot in the face by D. Cheney and apologizing for it.
does it cancel out if he throws up on the Japanese Prime Minister at dinner later?
or if he pulls his own hand back and then smooths his hair instead when the Japanese PM extends his arm to shake hands?
maybe he should just sucker punch the PM so there is no confusion?
Lala Song Player - Cut Across Shorty by Rod Stewart
Mike:
Saw it earlier. Thanks! A least with the new deal we got the Hoover dam.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
No need to sucker punch the PM. Top Dogs don't have to sucker (blank) anyone.
New deal was FDR. Hoover was Hoover dam. stimpacks predate the new deal
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
LoL! This talk of who is dominant according to the body language reminds me of school - when I was seven years old.
EHP.
Yeah, sorry. I was being dumb.
One of my realtor friends says that prices are going up
a little in Miami land. I think that it's just the ends of those
charts quivering sadly.
km4 wrote:
Maybe I'm just uninformed. To me, Web 2.0 was when web apps achieved the capabilities of 1990 vintage client/server apps. So what is 3.0?
WGBH American Experience - Hoover Dam
Nuke wrote:
And some roads, hiking trails in the parks. Now all we get is further in debt.
I think I will buy a couple more gold coins. What the heck,
I'm not getting any interest on the money anyway.
Why is it so hard to see that we should have tariffs at least as
great as the amount of money that the Chinese are saving
due to no pollution control??
liz:
That would be unfair to the multinationals.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
My eyes read that as "Now to get that wascally wabbit", figures that the global economy shares space in my memory next to Looney Tunes
We got some nice swimming areas out of it in Miami and
South Dade. Still in use.
Some odd things become financially positive; I always think
of Mad Ludwig's castles. I doubt anyone will want to go see
the missile silos in droves.
Unfair to the multinationals---why, that would be grrrreat.
Toy wrestling action figures have a future even if Americans don't...circuses will grow in size and stature...as will decadent escapism...and internet disinformation...
lawyerliz wrote:
IMHO coin dealers are getting a pretty obscene markup right now. They seem to be taking a percentage of the gold price, which means a larger profit margin at higher prices.
I've always looked at WWF and foodstamps as the modern version of bread and circuses.
I think it's unfair to real Liberals to call them that.... The Liberals you are referring to are anything but "liberal".
I think "Statist authoritarian douchebag" has a better ring to it, at least for most of those.
The thing is... the battle isn't about libs and conservatives anymore- the definitions of both of those things have been perverted to hell and back by politicians and the media.
The deal now is it's those who want to tell everyone else what to do vs those who don't. That's where the real battle lies... except most are too blind to see it. This is why "liberals" and "conservatives" get into heated arguments about things that are really petty BS, like gay marriage and the like... meanwhile socialists and neocon types alike are flushing all our constitutional and other civil rights right into the toilet- and stealing as much money as they can from us at the same time. (Taxation is one thing... but the taxation we see now- amounts to absurd levels of theft- when you have people giving 20+% of their income UP FRONT to the feds.... )
I'm more in agreement with typical "conservative" viewpoints, but it's important to realize that even on that side of the fence there are so called conservatives that are over eager to insert the knife into our backs and twist it as hard as they can for political gain. The abundance of RINOs out there is living proof of this. The lack of 2nd amendment progress under a republican dominated congress is also living proof of this. The "R's" suck less than the "D's" but all I keep seeing nowadays is the R's inheriting all the worst attributes of the worst D's- with a "conservative" spin placed on it to make it sell. Blech. I'll stop now before I get too pissed off..
sm_landlord wrote:
they snail mail you a web enabled cellphone that is entirely supported by unblockable spam, so in your next meeting the phone will loudly start playing the trailer for a porn movie
I was looking at Gimbutas' thing on "Old Europe" with all the
interesting idols and all. Some are phallus shaped.
Yeah, I guess most of them were supposed to be religious.
But suppose some of them were non electric nightstand
cowboys?
For your viewing pleasure EHP
YouTube - The Wabbit Who Came to Supper
There is a sci fi novel called Valentina where a massive game program
starts programming itself and comes alive.
How far is the internet in complexity of nodes and whatever, in
comparison to one human brain?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Sounds like an unassailable business model. Where can I invest?
Nuke - may you never be reduced to foodstamps, but until you are, you will be supporting someone who is -
It's the Ghostbusters end game via Gozer the Gozerian...
lawyerliz
there are many religions that have intentionally phallic or yonic symbols. Shinto in Japan has a penis festival for one, but the imagery is all over Mesopotamian / pre-Judean religions I think
In the Endtimes, eBay will grow as a place to sell wrestling action figures...and other costumed characters...
Oh, yeah, but sometimes a cigar is a cigar.
I just got tired of O bashing for a ridiculous reason.
lawyerliz wrote:
Assuming that was a serious question, the serious answer is that the Internet is many orders of magnitude poorer in terms of interconnectedness and specialization. In its current form, the 'Net is not going to achieve consciousness.
Maybe that's what Web 3.0 is supposed to do.
/snark
I guess I am just
.
Many orders of magnitude, hunh?
So the internet has the capacity of what?
A bug?
A mouse?
A dinosaur?
shill,
And the funny thing about 'blind partisanship' as peddled by media outlets is contradictions in thinking...like the Right fears Big Government, Big taxes, etc. but gets excited about a Big aggressive, expensive Miiltary which IS Big Government also...
lawyerliz wrote:
Well, look at it this way. Cells can reproduce and maintain themselves. The Internet needs an army of admins just to keep it running from one day to another. It's not a model for life.
Someone on CNBC once said web 2.0 will save us from a recession.
I have decided that the purpose of the media has little to do with
information it is to make money. Any information conveyed is strictly
incidental. Just like the purpose of NASA is to get congresspeople
elected. Etc,etc. It is wonderfully liberating not to feel that one has to
listen to the crap. Instead I can just read CR.
Buying non-sensical spin on various issues can make partisans walking contradictions...there's basic agreement with the fundamental economy and how it works and basic agreement on military adventurism because both political sides are following a single mandate...somehow...
Hey, wife, load the kids into the car!
We're going to the Penis Festival!
If something had replicated itself on the net, how would we
tell? How long would it take to notice?
Cells need an environment of food and the right warmth and
moisture to grow and reproduce. All those systems administrators
are internet nurses. . . .?
Goodnight all. Gotta get up early tomorrow.
Yep, what America needs is a good penis festival.
Then we can be just as good as the Jappanese!
"We're going to the Penis Festival! "
what do you think a Maypole represents?
Gold will stay above $1,000 an ounce forever, says Swiss Dr. Doom -- DailyFinance
I completely disagree with Faber on this one. Gold will likely drop to 700 (bullets) or even 500 (Ameros) an ounce in the not to distant future.
(Well, nobody seemed to want to talk about housing and
whether it will or will not recover.)
Or, a Christmas tree?
lawyerliz
I can't cite anything off the top of my head, but there was a marked divergence between advertiser driven media and subscriber driven media. the more profit that comes from subscriptions, the better the content.
so in that context + your statement: the purpose of the media is to provide a desirable advertising platform
lawyerliz wrote:
You would see load factors rise for no apparent reason. You would notice pretty fast. And it would be killed off as quickly as possible. Because it would be a robotic virus, and it would be sending spam for African funds transfers and Viagra.
Is the internet as smart as a bug, wait that is
the wrong word to use, an insect?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Close. The purpose of media is to provide a stream of revenue to the supplier, by whatever means are currently viable. As one provider once told me: "Don't attempt to insert a finger into the revenue flow, or your hand will come back one digit short".
The last few fund transfer things I got were from
somewhere in Asia. I guess the Nigerians are tired.
lawyerliz wrote:
you ever read Mario Puzo's the Godfather?
I like the idea of buying an entire gated community of homes so that there is always room for family. although for me it would be buying some coastal land, clearing little patches for a cottage here and a cottage there. older generation could live there year round, would have dogs and a garden.
They must hate it that we are all on here,
rather than being advertised to--the few ads on
here hardly count.
sm_landlord wrote:
tell that to Murdoch (he wants 100% subscriber model online, but with the content of an advertiser only model)
EHP, LawyerLiz could be your consigliere.
Advertising platform and market demographics...Fox watchers are no doubt older than CNN & CNBC viewers?
Developing story...Obama in China to promote the yuan over the Dollar...
Non sum dignus.
Well, yeah, the yuan is undervalued, so he should be doing
that.
Everything is bad that everybody does all the time and especially
the president.
lawyerliz wrote:
I was going to ask you if you saw that Frontline "close to home" show ... I was surprised by the FL foreclosure. Did he just go thru the wrong lender? (sorry it this was already discussed, I guess it is a few weeks old now...)
To add to the argument that outsourcing technology to China is a short-term gain and long-term steal (for China):
GE forms China JV to make airplane electronics
.
Why am I thinking about patterns that have been lost to China?
lawyerliz would be running the whole show before I could finish asking why my car is accelerating upward like a rocketship
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
That's not at conflict with the way I stated it. Subscriber models can work well. Think about the way the record industry used to work, or the way iTunes works now. Of course, some producers are trying to "insert the finger" as it were, by embedding pre-sold product placement into the content. It will be interesting to see how much of that they can get away with.
Don't remember. I guess I get my war stories confused
with everybody else's. I haven't found the media standard
story to be anything like what I experience on a daily basis.
I leave for one hour and you guys have devolved to porn ads playing during meetings and penis festivals.
You all were better off with my buying fake historic real estate complete with certified preserved turds of Thomas Jefferson comedy routine.
yagij wrote:
You ever read Michael Crichton's Airframe? (when he was still pumping out the paperbacks, before he went off the deep end)
If it's the book I'm thinking of, a huge part of it was Boeing outsourced the nose or wings instead of the body to win a contract. Although I'm not too sure it isn't also reality by now, it's been a long time since I read it.
Well then Hoops, you shouldn't have left.
EHP and I are now having a bowing contest.
Edward Harrison says tonight
"a major Chinese official has criticized U.S. monetary policy in unusually harsh language. Liu Mingkang, China Banking Regulatory Commission chairman said the zero interest rate policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve posed a “new systemic risk.”... The Chinese expect Barack Obama to deliver a message that his administration will find it increasingly difficult to hold protectionist pressures at bay given the Yuan’s firm peg to the U.S. dollar even while the dollar has plummeted. To prevent the U.S. from successfully painting the Chinese peg as the sole major risk to the global economic recovery, the Chinese must therefore point to the destabilizing measures taken by the U.S. to reflate its domestic economy."
Laughter time...Liu's statements are as farcical as Geithner's well known assertion.
sm_landlord
I'm not saying you were wrong. I'm saying that you have much to teach the current media-heads.
Like Sony crippling their CDs with trojan horses and media players with pointless duplication of music files.
Or the companies which are going to kill Hulu and bring in a pay-model.
or the media companies which are writing the new ACTRA agreement to stake out an expansion of copyright to grant themselves new rights so that everyone becomes a criminal
I read Airframe and I liked it I remember, but I don't remember a
single thing in it.
60 minutes had a good report while I was playing on the computer
about a consultant's relation to Jurassic Park and how his grad
student phd dissolved some t-rex bone, and some stuff was left
and it was A PROTEIN. Which they are now playing around with.
And reverse engineering a chicken aiming at a dinosaur. . . .
It seems that the chicken has a tail in the egg which is turned
off by a gene, which they are trying to turn off in turn.
Liz - 'Yuan is undervalued'...
I think the Chinese must be underestimating the amount of stuff we buy from them...and if that stuff spikes in price in the U.S. their exports decline even more...will Chinese workers be able to consume what Americans have consumed (with massive credit too) on their wages and salaries...the yuan is undervalued to what...the Crashing trashed Dollar...
I didn't say 'everything' Obama does is bad...the 911 trials are a good idea to get to the bottom of this 'terrorist' act...Liz...name a few things Obama has done that are really good ideas...
On the 787 a major wing section and fuselage section are produced in Japan. Why is a mystery as labor certainly isn't cheaper nor are operating costs. Shipping these components back to the US certainly adds costs.
Oh, well, my wrist hurts.
and all my little chickadees.
Jurassic Park was an excellent movie on many levels (caveat: I saw it for the first time when I was very young)
Music score. Pearls of wisdom. Visually. Escapism. Good cast.
Even in terms of society, it marked the real arrival of the Ford Explorer and the SUV. Created many pop-culture references.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
They don't listen to guys like me.
I remember trying to explain the concept of monoculture risks in security implementation designs to studio people. The reactions ranged from "you're probably a traitor" to "the hackers will break it in a couple of years anyway, so who cares".
Pointless exercise.
And yumster Jeff Goldblum too.
sm_landlord wrote:
PROOF of warm blooded dinosaurs!
I visit this blog because I love the reparte and the humor (Voltaire, anyone). IMO, the stimulus money is simply being funneled down the tubes by the good old boys, friends of friends networks. That is why my state (New Mexico) is receiving a grant to fund an internet-based project which will determine how HIV is spreading. Virtual reality is now "real". I could go on and on about this subject (how modeling of reality is replacing real, on-the-ground reality, but don't wish to bore or remain OT for too long..).
"...are produced in Japan. Why is a mystery ..."
not really. JAL has long been a customer.
prairiedog wrote:
What about the Volt-meister? he's on my reading list says EHP inquisitively
Don't worry Liz...guess your nytol...but the Chinese think Obama's idea to increase the yuan to the dollar may be a bad idea...
Meanwhile, spot gold is at $1126.40
So I guess the Chinese plan to go down with us. How touching.
Soon you will be able to desribe the Panglossian recovery talk and know whereof you speak...
JAL only had Airbus as another option. There was no need to hand over major component production.
Plantagenet wrote:
No ... but I saw these.
Geez, gold's becoming an even GREATER share of your portfolio... guess no sleep for you tonight!
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Bah. Gotta get up early and rebalance. Some miners I want to lighten up on.
Edit: Of course, I will be sorry later. That always happens.
Problem with rebalancing is you have to have somewhere better to put the proceeds.
Arrrrgh!
Economic stress is fungible. The government can't shelter favored friends indefinitely in these circumstances
Good thing crab-man Summers is so confident that economic growth at this point is self-sustaining and powerful enough to turn aside any unexpected hurdles
I'm pretty sure Krugman visits here often. He steal ideas from CR and bastardizes them through his warped mind and passes them off as his own academic credentials.
You can always tell the difference between CR's ideas and Krugman's, because CR consistently, relentlessly builds ideas on data and arguments (like real academics are supposed to do) while Krugman has started just flinging out his ideas and opinion without support or consistency, whether or not anybody really asks to hear them. Krugman's writings have begun to seem like the outpourings of a drug-afflicted or alcoholic mind.
There's no doubt in my mind CR is sober, in every sense.
I would like to call on Krugman to stop this. Admit you are a fraud. Renounce your Nobel and admit it really belongs to others, especially CR.
STOP STEALING IDEAS AND PASSING THEM OFF AS YOUR OWN! Stop publishing personal opinions that are baseless and nobody has really asked for.
Just once, I'd lilke to see anything Krugman writes that's as original or helpful as this one post of CR's.
rich wrote:
You're not going to see it, because the K-man has an agenda he's pushing. I have read his books. Thankfully, CR is not pushing an agenda, just providing summary analysis. And an opportunity for us doomers to make what we will of it.
rich, PK can't change his stripes...
One day, a scorpion who wanted to cross a pond. As you may know, scorpions can’t really swim. He found a rather unsuspecting tortoise and asked if he would give him a lift.
The tortoise exclaimed, “Are you joking? You’ll sting me while I’m swimming and I’ll drown.”
“My dear tortoise,” laughed the scorpion, “If I were to sting you, you would drown and I’d go down with you! Now where is the logic in that?”
“You’ve got a point there,” reasoned the tortoise. “Hop on.”
The scorpion climbed aboard and the tortoise set off into the water. Halfway across the pond, the scorpion carefully aimed his powerful stinger and gave that tortoise everything he had.
As they both sank to the bottom, the tortoise, resigned to his fate, turned to the scorpion and said, “Do you mind if I ask you something? You said there is no logic in you stinging me. So why did you do it?”
“It has nothing to do with logic,” the drowning scorpion replied. “It’s just my nature!”
In this case PK is (of course) the scorpion and the tortoise is our economy.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Whenever I hear that story, I think of Jessica Rabbit's line: 'I'm not bad, I'm just drawn that way!"
You know, thanks sm, I know Krugman can't change his stripes. But I want to start outting him, at least as far as he keeps stealing ideas from this blog and publishing them as a bastardized version of his own ideas, filtered through a streak of addiction and lazyness.
Go away, Paul Krugman. Get your ideas somewhere else, you stinkin' bastard.
Stop trying to defraud the world. CR works damn hard to develop and publish ideas, and they belong to him and to this blog. Stop the plageurism.
Or the original:
YouTube - MARLENE DIETRICH - FALLING IN LOVE AGAIN
rich wrote:
Did you mean stop the senseless plaguerism
?
Yes, that's what I meant. Thanks.
S&P 500 INDEX Dec (CME) 1098.0 +6.6
boooyaahahahahahahahahahaha
The Ebonic Plaguerism?
Gold $1129.30, just went parabolic again. Second time tonight. Anyone know what's going on in Asia?
Gold accumulation going on. Accumulators are relentless and have a lot of ammunition.
I would like to contrast what's happening in gold and silver (persistent accumulation) versus what is happening in stocks, which is hesitant, leveraged speculation. The markets are signaling the wisdom of the Nemo Trade, which is long gold/silver/miners and short stocks. Hang in there with this trade.
rich wrote:
The
is going to have its work cut out for it when NY opens in the AM.
The Vampire Squid from Hell will go with the flow.
Maybe Obama has cut some kind of deal...or been rejected...maybe the endless U.S. stimulus is undergoing a 'legitimation crisis'...
They may have no choice at this point.
I'm going to hit the sack so I can be up for the open.
"In this case PK is (of course) the scorpion and the tortoise is our economy. "
Nowadays I do not wonder anymore why Russian peasants in 1917 or French ones much earlier were so vicious towards their former "masters". These greedy f**kers cannot and will not stop, just like that scorpion.
Obama is just another sellout, pretending be all "hope and change" but in reality just one of the "boys" and always has been from day one. There is little hope for change because baby boomers and genx/y are mostly pathetic little polite cowards (I am genx), never really willing to risk their lives for anything. They might take away those precious toys! Cannot have that!
Rich,
What's the last major research paper that Krugman has published in a peer reviewed macroeconomics journal or related academic journal, I wonder? Instead of just his blog commentary or op-ed pieces.
rich wrote:
Possibly long oil/short dollar as well ... or is there something I'm not getting?
rich wrote:
*Stop trying to defraud the world. CR works damn hard to develop and publish ideas, and they belong to him and to this blog. Stop the plageurism. *
Rich, I think you are missing a pretty essential ingredient. CR has great respect for Krugman and has respected him for years. Why would he have that many posts regarding Krugman's views? BTW, Krugman is also in a prime position on his blog roll.
Krugman should do an updated research paper and model of financial/currency crises (new generation maybe) including the impact of central banking on these macroeconomic events and cycles...
ln 2006, the number of homes sold in the Chicago northwest suburb of Arlington Heights at $600k or more was 109. As of Oct 20 this year? Just 23. At prices of $900k or more the numbers were 17 vs. 2. Out in the boonies at Woodstock, sales at $400k+ in 2006 numbered 55. So far this year? Just 5. In the last month, foreclosure listings on Yahoo for the suburbs have begun rising rapidly.
The Dollar is undergoing an expected speculative attack now so new research on these unfolding events would be critical to preventing these crisis devaluations and deflationary credit cycles possibly in the future...
RE wrote:
Yeah, maybe CR is stealing from Krugman.
I will be a contrary doomer and cast doubt on the current gold run-up, expecting a retrace back to 800 within 3-4 months.
Holy Crap - 200+ and it is a Sunday evenin'.
So
Looks to me like we have a big win to "save and protect yobs"
Great pics and adequate counterpoint contrasting Obama's bows and Bush's handholding and liplocks. Both represent respecting other cultures and their norms. The bows bothered me until I thought about where our current practices of unilateralism and America's might makes right policies in dealing with the world. I'm ok with showing respect to foreign leaders even if they are royalty. It did bother me and still does but I can accept it.
++++
Prof Krugman is playing the same role Keynes did during the run up to the great depression. He is one of dozens of economics experts I read. I never get angry or feel the need to condemn them when I don't agree with what they write. PK allegedly poaching ideas from our host and the more erudite posters is a form of flattery and what most of do when we read something we agree with or that leads us to our own original thinking on a subject. Many times I have learned from CR or the board and shared those ideas with those I interact with, always thought that was a good thing.
And based of Krugman's own published research, we now know that these dramatic currency devaluations are related to unsustainable government spending...and further published econ research showed that 'expectations' that the govt. deficits won't be repaid fuels speculative attacks on currencies...
Back to the topic...
Just checked the Census web site and there are currently 722,000 more vacant housing units for rent than there were 24 months ago.
That's a lot of inventory to work off before we can expect to see new units being built.
EDIT: Data here
CBC News - Money - Japan's GDP rises 1.2% in Q3
What's with the "casting doubt"? Nothing ever proceeds in a straight line, so a good pullback would not invalidate the long-term trend. It's happened numerous times since the bull began at the turn of the century.
However, Faber may be onto something, especially since the biggest dogs (i.e., the CBs) have turned from sellers to buyers. That's a sea change if there ever was one.
Hmmm ...
.....and #6.......the Zhu Zhu Pet is the 2009 "Must Have" Gift item. Stores are limiting purchases of four at $10. each..............you too can spend money foolishly.........
broward,
these are CR's posts on SI regarding Krugman's views just in the space of a few months in 2004.
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/image.php?ce0d88d50c.png
my guess is that this reflects healthy respect and IMO deservedly so.
BTW, I disagree with you on gold though. However, I do expect a correction as any well scared goldbug would after such a run up. All the way down to $800? Nahhh.
ONLY with the DOW at 5600.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
I don't disagree with the long-term trend, just that the current spike has sustainable momentum.
Japan's economy expanded by 1.2 per cent in the third quarter, the second consecutive quarterly rise, the government said Monday
Yea!
Wait a minute billions spent to stimulate the economy. Without stimulas, GDP rose how much?
o What we find in books is like the fire in our hearths. We fetch it from our neighbors, we kindle it at home, we communicate it to others, and it becomes the property of all.
nova
Plantagenet
mp
shill When the American President humiliates himself in this manner, he humiliates the country he represents.
barfly
If you think that bowing humiliates anybody, then yes, I suppose I do think less of you.
RE wrote:
not playing dumb, but what is SI?
picosec
you are paying attention to the thing that matters most for RE. inventory inventory inventory
thx for sharing the factoid
Topic is there will be no V-shaped recovery and there is more high unemployment coming...especially if there is financial/currency crisis contagion IMO...
CR, maybe Krugman could write a guest posting for a thread here to address all these related isues to the recovery or no recovery...V-shaped or not...and he could address the state of the Dollar currency devaluation as it relates to more deficit spending and what that might mean for housing and unemployment issues...just a thought...
Barley wrote:
I saw posts about gold / dollar going parabolic. The GDP report could explain the first one with a leak and then the second one with the public announcement
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Silicon Investor. The earlier playground of CR, Mish and Russ Winter even including Cramer and many, many others.
edit: Oh and even RE
EHP-
Yeah. Voltaire did say it better.
RE wrote:
I can't see a trace of sentiment change preceding the jump, but even more disturbing is that I can't find a sentiment change AFTER this runup, which means that not many people know it's happening, or they don't care. It's strange, I don't understand it. My best guess is that a few big hands are doing it on purpose.
The major bridges, tunnels, highways, dams, canals, levees, airports, parks, museums, monuments, reservoirs and aqueducts were government stimulus projects.
Almost all of them.
think equity llc
pretty smart shop
broward wrote:
I believe likewise. The fact is that most bugs are scared to pieces but the physical demand is there. As I mentioned a few days ago, one of the ingredients is big buyers that want to evade taxes. I've read several stories on that in the Swiss press.
However, at zero interest rates and with Central Banks having changed their stripes, the whole picture has changed. Because gold behaved so well during the recent crash, it now has also acquired legitimacy among pension funds and they had up to this point basically zero allocation to gold. There is potential for a lot of momentum from new players. The change in sentiment from the mainstream is incredible to observe.
However, it is nowhere near bubble stage IMO. The average retail investor still thinks that gold is all about risk and no real reward.
Do people really think the nominal recovery of GDP growth will automatically make people better off?
This is dumb.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Accelerating necessary infrastructure projects isn't a bad thing. Too bad the only infrastructure we're stimulating these days is financial.
I missed the Krugman thread, and I just want to add my comment...
What a moron.
Same solutions being offered up by the same bozos who got us in this mess. More debt will not fix a problem caused by too much debt. Every crisis will continue to get worse, because of idiots like Krugman, the "experts" that tell people what they want to hear -- you can fix past a massively damaged economy, caused by past horrible mistakes without painful adjustments.
mp wrote:
Of course not.
But Jefferson would not have bowed to the
either.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Suboptimal expansions?
Less than ideal booms?
rich wrote:
I'm no fan of PK. However, I've noticed that most writers decline in quality when they have to write on too frequent a deadline, rather than when they are inspired or really have something to say. Most regular columnists fall into this trap.
I think that 'housing leads out of recessions' one of the dumbest things that I've ever heard. It comes, of course, from looking at the data, but data, perforce, reflects what has happened, not why it happened. New housing is a result, one of something else creating jobs which create the demand for houses. Yet, there are those who would stimulate housing as a panacea. Better to find out what things cause an increase in demand for housing (like jobs) and put your stimulus money there.