Orion Bank CEO Had a Plan ...

"FUMU Finance" sounds vaguely obscene.

Which is in keeping with this "plan", I suppose . . .

Yeah - loan money to a straw borrower (apparently breaking a law) to have the borrower buy bad assets from the bank and invest in stock. Luckily Orion is a private company or there would be many more problems.

I wonder if charges will be filed?

best to all

It is amazing. But, as someone else pointed out earlier, are Bernanke's extensive and unprecedented use of the Federal Reserve's powers to keep air in the housing bubble any less culpable? Certainly it is legal, but misdirecting trillions into maintaining asset price bubbles seems even more damaging than what Mr Williams has done.

CR:

Are you familiar with Blackadder . . .

Forgive us our debts as we forgive those...

OT, but this guy is totally off his rocker. I found this particular paragraph absolutely hilarious:

At the core, we have a problem of insufficient aggregate demand. The government is the only entity in a position to remedy that problem, because only the government can create new net financial assets via spending. There are any number of measures which would have an almost instantaneous impact in terms of improving aggregate incomes and demand. A national payroll tax holiday, revenue sharing with the states (so as to preclude additional cuts in state spending which offset the Federal fiscal stimulus) and a government as employer of last resort (an idea we plan to expand on further in a subsequent New Deal 2.0 posting) would all do the trick.

“President Obama, deficit terrorism is not the answer!” « naked capitalism

Is there a contest for who can out-PK PK?

Why is this guy not in jail?

And I knew that there were oilfields in Mexico that were declining,
but I didn't know their names, liz says defensively.

from CRs post

"the Bank, with Williams’ active participation, filed materially inaccurate regulatory reports, made false statements to the Federal Reserve, has suffered additional loan losses, and has failed to comply with provisions of an outstanding Written Agreement designed to require that the Bank properly address its asset quality problems."


yeah? so whats different? like somebody can point to bankstas that are like alter boys?

looks intriguing, and most importantly, entertaining and well written (at least I like the authors who contributed blurbs)

the June 2009 loans referred to above, which were made to enable the borrowers to purchase certain low quality assets from the Bank

umm. Merril Lynch, among others, did this same thing. Loan out non-recourse to a hedge fund, to buy troubled assets off your own books, and then book the higher performing asset. i guess, the moral is don't use straw buyers.

Merrill’s Bitter Pill May Be a Sweet Deal for Lone Star - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com

That's OK lliz, you are still QotW! Smile

Think of your level of awareness regarding said oilfield as similar to say, Golden West for the average person back when everyone knew real estate prices only went up....

Certainly it is legal, but misdirecting trillions into maintaining asset price bubbles seems even more damaging than what Mr Williams has done.

Bernanke is the biggest bank robber of all time. Every other bank criminal is a petty thief in comparison.

Bernanke is stealing interest from tens of millions of bank depositors. It's a little different than emptying out the vault with a sawed off machine gun.

But not much.

TJ:

I posted this article on a thread earlier today. My sentiments exactly. When the stimulus, stimulus 2 stimulus 3, etc, fail to jumpstart the economy, it will be because, well, you know, it wasn't enough.

lawyerliz wrote:

but I didn't know their names, liz says defensively.

no need to be defensive on a saturday night fireside chat... it's all good. just a little less Real French Sparkly for u tonight

Basel Too wrote:

the moral is don't use straw buyers.

Yes, go big or go home. Set up an offbalance sheet entity fer gawd's sake.

It looks like an excellent overview of the industry written from a starting point of pretty much no information...all that and she doesn't address the whole issue of depletion/peak oil! Smile
.
For anyone who wants to move beyond a state of energy illiteracy...

liz,

Mexico has been among the USA's largest oil suppliers for quite a while, yet due to declines in production and increases in domestic consumption they're projected to become a net importer inside of 5 years. Not good for us, doubly not good for them.

So, Williams found a Goldman Sachs Laddering blueprint, or a Bear Stearns Everquest offering sheet, or any other cdo squared deal...and decided to try it for himself...?

I say good for him! he was playing the Vampire Squid from Hell 's game!

Fraud.

Fraud.

Fraud.

My only puzzlement was who was defrauded?

Sure, the FDIC and taxpayers. But who else?

I just don't have a criminal mind.

I guess the depositors with over 250k were defrauded, but hey, they
can sue Williams to get it back, and it still might be around. Are his
accounts and assets frozen?

Two or three years ago, I would have joined CR in his sense of outrage at $15 million of illegal bank transactions executed by the CEO of a bank. Now, we have seen trillions irresponsibly moved through the banking system, and the people doing it are powerful enough that they simply arrange for the laws to be modified to fit the actions. So it's legal. I think it's worse, much worse.

Reading about peak oil, like reading how much the national
debt is, depresses me. And no, don't tell me the amount of
the National Debt, noooooooo.

Basel Too

been several threads since we are on at the same time

i owe you an apology

about 3 days ago you and i were arguing about phill gramm

you made a point...and i responded with "i gotta call bull shit on that"

that was rude on my part and not an effective way to debate

i have an allergic reaction to phill gramm, but that doesnt justify my remark

again, i apologize for being rude

energyecon wrote:

That's OK lliz, you are still QotW! Smile

Would that be Queen of the World, or Quote of the Week (about Cantarell)? Wink

Be consoled, patient, that when the money arrives at the zombie,
it becomes dead money, ahhhh, Zombie money, just like me writing
"I have one million dollars to spend" when I don't and I snippily tell
everybody that I won't loan any of it out becaue they don't deserve it.

patientrenter wrote:

So it's legal. I think it's worse, much worse.

That's the real danger here -- J6P determining that there is no justice. "Moral hazard" can bring down the country.

Noooooooo, I didn't look, I didn't.

I hope they throw the book at him. What's the maximum sentence ? Twenty months in minimum security, 1 million in fines the bank has to pay, and stipulation that he only work as a banker outside of Florida?

Well, if I am queen of the world, why are those
Christmas decorations up?

And why are those nasty cards still stuck in magazines that
fall out when you read the magazines in the grocery store
line?

Is he still here? Why don't these people run away?

I would run away.

A single puss filled zit being squeezed does not make a system better. It inflamess the surrounding tissue and masks the cause of the infection.

Like I said - A new order of exclusion.

You on some kind of twelve step program? Wink

sdtfs wrote:

What's the maximum sentence ?

He'll have to go to banker re-education camp, to learn from Treasury and Fed officials how to legally continue banking when you are throwing money down a rathole.

Since he is conveniently in Florida, he can come to my house and follow
the cat around, wiping paw prints, and whisk up each crumb of used kitty
litter individually, back in the kitty litter box. Also he can be a human weed
whacker, ripping each weed out by its roots, and after that he can clean the
toilets, each time someone uses them. And wear high heels and fluffy
apron while doing it.

Tired and Sick of this crap.
Nytol Love

Is there a 12-step program for Stockholm Syndrome?

C

i love it that people called surferdude808 seem to have a better handle on the situation than 'those in power'

BG - those waves he's surfing may not be made of water but capital

During the inevitable reduction in social spending(SS, education, elderly health care, etc.) remember where our wealth is spent and then ask why.
http://www.globalissues.org/article/75/world-military-spending

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

BG - those waves he's surfing may not be made of water but capital

Yeah ... that was occuring to me as i clicked save

Uh oh, BHO uses the term "inflection point" at APEC meeting...

China-U.S. discord on currencies clouds Obama visit
| Reuters

Wonder if his advisors took him through the multivalent interpretation even in English of that phrase?

C

Jackson Jambalaya
More mortgage fraud. Wish Tanta were here to clarify.

Obama's strategy calls for America to save more, spend less, reform its financial system and cut its deficits and borrowing.

His strategy seems to be the exact opposite of what the government is encouraging right now.

Oxtail wrote:

His strategy seems to be the exact opposite of what the government is encouraging right now.

When I hear things like this, I get my hopes up. Then I hear Geithner or Bernanke announce more measures to spend a trillion or two on "stabilizing" home prices, and I realize that actions speak louder than words.

Money from business loans that is being paid back to the banks ... is it disappearing into a black hole? Not being lent out right?

St. Louis Fed: FRED Graph,

Any thoughts on long can this be sustained?

their words aren't as owned as their policy actions, in other words? I guess that's what you get when you buy a politician...

To quote CR (a few posts back)... Watch what he does, not what he says!

Energycon,

What timeline are you leaning towards? Bakhtiari or ?

What is your plan? Doomstead? Commodities Investing? Work in the industry?

Always appreciate your posts, and your links.

while you are at zero hedge

read this comment by rasputin (hosted by RobotTrader)

essentially how fed will throw everything including the kitchen sink at deflation but to no avail

Head and Shoulders Shampoo | zero hedge

I hereby recommend that any journalist reading these comments begin an investigative piece into any bank on suferdude's naughty list to see how many other banks out there are currently in the process of doing the same thing as this guy.

Thanks mock, hadn't caught that zh post!

I never miss RoboTrader's stuff -- great "illustrations". Wink

Banker of the Year: Jerry Williams
President and CEO Orion Bancorp

Throw out the stereotype of boring, stuffed-shirt bankers. Many of today’s banking leaders and most of the next generation of bankers are innovators and entrepreneurs, regularly stepping outside of the conventional banking box. ...

But being Banker of the Year requires more than strong numbers. There is also an intangible quality to consider - reputation in the community, reputation among peers, respect as a leader and manager, ambition and drive, proven ability to design and meet significant institutional goals. The Review also considered the entrepreneurial spirit of each banker, strategy for the future and big-picture plan for getting there.

This year’s honorees possess those qualities. And their impact on the region has only just begun.

Yes, Jerry Williams is a confident guy. Why wouldn’t he be? ...

Williams eagerly boasts of his banking success. With nearly childlike glee, he happily shows off spreadsheets and computer programs that prove Orion is eating the competition at every turn. Also proud of his top-of-the-line BMW, private jet and handsome family, Williams is not modest. ...

Asked about his greatest challenge in the next 12 to 24 months, Williams replies: “We want to continue to bring in talent and grow and perform at the same level. We need to keep ahead of infrastructure. We are excited about next year because we are going through the $1 billion mark, which for an independent bank is big. As long as we can maintain growth and recruit good people, we can stay independent and private. There are no limits. I know guys who have been doing it with $10 billion and $14 billion banks.”

This is not satire. It's from the Gulf Coast Business Review, September 19, 2003:
Banker of the Year: Jerry Williams

America has an unending supply of "confident guys" like Jerry. If we don't make it harder for them to take in a few billion dollars of government guaranteed deposits and do with them as they choose, they're going to keep costing us a lot of money.

For once, I wish the IRS had enough CID folk to go around. This guy would not have stretched his brain cell without getting some vig. I say follow the money and make the criminal tax evasion case. Two counts on any of 28 Federal offenses and/or any of eight state offenses. Voila, a nice RICO.

crcomment - have we gone meta? Oh good.

This is a comment by a handled member of the cr commentariat about a comment. [This is meta-comment 1].

C

crcomment wrote:

America has an unending supply of "confident guys" like Jerry.

Another graduate of the Texas Holdem' school of finance.

The pronounced and sustained opposition between thoughts and actions can result in a schizoid split. shudder at the thought of a Fed governor or US president with MPD or a schizoaffective disorder.

Counterpointer wrote:

This is a comment by a handled member of the cr commentariat about a comment. [This is meta-comment 1].

I don't understand why you think your comment deserves to be labeled as meta-comment 1. Merely because you referenced a previous comment doesn't entitle you to any special naming rights. I find your comment about crcomment's comment to be value free. Now if you'd like to edit and add some signal to your comment about his/her comment, then that would preserve our precious S/N ratio.

Resistance,

what's to say we don't have one, now?

Please forgive me as I am a lurker and this is a bit off topic (and may have been discussed already), but this morning's San Diego paper had an article claiming that the local income-to-home-price ratio was now 2.4. Can that be right? I think the average price is still around $300k around here (down from $500k), but that would still mean, what, average household income of $120k? This is from Lawrence Yun. Article here: Realtors cheer prediction of rising home prices - Business - SignOnSanDiego.com

TALF...or TALF homeroom...
Term Asset-backed securities loan facility
The central bank makes loans in difficult times
-'...the possible increase to $1 trillion makes TALF potentially on of the Fed's largest programs.'
-'nonrecourse loans'
-'TALF is structured to minimize the Fed's risks.'
-TALF has been extended to June 30, 2010.'
-'Reviving securitization markets'
Economic Letter, August 2009
TALF: Jump-Starting the Securitization Markets - Economic Letter, August 2009 - FRB Dallas

That's potentially ONE of the Fed's largest programs...

ABS - asset backed securities
'When the housing bubble burst...investors shunned ABS...so the FED created TALF...to support new ABS issues...and thaw out securitization markets.'
TALF link above
~These programs are amazing in that it seems like more of the same 'hair of the dog' that bit the Economy...

jimmie infamy,

The chart says 'nationally'. The national median is under $180K.

jimmie infamy wrote:

the local income-to-home-price ratio was now 2.4. Can that be right?

Surprisingly, yes! Since they don't tell you which numbers they used to cook these books. I'm guessing that it's only for homes sold in the last couple months, when the credit conditions got tighter. And they may have thrown out a few sales that don't support their goal.

Yawn...yeah I know these Fed programs are old news...but I doubt many people know how they work or why they exist...I don't really know how they work or why they exist except for hunches regarding...curing a hangover with more drugs and hard liquor...

crcomment wrote:

This is not satire. It's from the Gulf Coast Business Review, September 19, 2003

I just got sick on my keyboard.

That hoocoodanode tile with Obama and others laughing is from a known disinfo site...

So it does. The fact that it was a local event clouded my comprehension. But that would still mean national average household income is approx. $72K?

merchants of fear wrote:

That hoocoodanode tile with Obama and others laughing is from a known disinfo site...

Linky?

I did. Or is your need for brevity so great, that you can't be bothered to offer enough verbiage to allow us to distinguish whether your comment "Comment about that comment." is itself a comment about that comment or merely a plea for someone else to comment about that comment. Well, in any case, I at least have fulfilled my responsibility by pointing out how superior my meta comments are to your meta comments.

DC,
Just opinion on the disinfo...what's misinfo to me might be good reporting to someone else...
The artist is Dees and his stuff is funny but there's a spin of course in political cartooning orpolitical staire and he supplies art to sites with a spin...
David Dees Illustration

The notions stimulus, response, reinforcement are relatively well defined with respect to the bar-pressing experiments and others similarly restricted. Before we can extend them to real-life behavior, however, certain difficulties must be faced. We must decide, first of all, whether any physical event to which the organism is capable of reacting is to be called a stimulus on a given occasion, or only one to which the organism in fact reacts; and correspondingly, we must decide whether any part of behavior is to be called a response, or only one connected with stimuli in lawful ways. Questions of this sort pose something of a dilemma for the experimental psychologist. If he accepts the broad definitions, characterizing any physical event impinging on the organism as a stimulus and any part of the organism's behavior as a response, he must conclude that behavior has not been demonstrated to be lawful. In the present state of our knowledge, we must attribute an overwhelming influence on actual behavior to ill-defined factors of attention, set, volition, and caprice. If we accept the narrower definitions, then behavior is lawful by definition (if it consists of responses); but this fact is of limited significance, since most of what the animal does will simply not be considered behavior. Hence, the psychologist either must admit that behavior is not lawful (or that he cannot at present show that it is -- not at all a damaging admission for a developing science), or must restrict his attention to those highly limited areas in which it is lawful (e.g., with adequate controls, bar-pressing in rats; lawfulness of the observed behavior provides, for Skinner, an implicit definition of a good experiment). chomsky.info/articles/1967----.htm

Political satire...can't type...most of the sites I used to think were interesting or informative end up just being disorienting or confusing...I get more interesting info from Fed research or published macroeconomic studies...but it's kinda stuffy and not too sexy...

wait...you mean it's not an actual photo of Obama being sworn in with everybody laughing histaricly? With a banner promsing change?

shocked ...just shocked that i was duped

Really confusing econ/political misinfo stuff is long disjointed narratives with no paragraph breaks sometimes and ends up really saying nothing much but seems erudite so ...I went to research that's at least is easier to grasp.
It's like reading Gaudia Ray or Slumdog fr example...you wonder what you just read and getting distracted...that's kind of a disinfo/misinfo style...blog comments and weird political/econ 'analysis' or news release sites can leave you in a haze but they are entertaining...just some thoughts on looking for info that sheds some light on this mess...

TJ
Jonathan
check

yeah RTs posts and pegs at ZH are fiery stuff

good nite

Wait a minute,...you're calling me a bar-pressing rat.
One, I don't think a spacebar qualifies.
B, Counterpointer is not controlling my actions.
and finally third, all my current actions are lawful, not withstanding some misunderstanding by the local peace officers.

Bernanke is like a Viking warrior...
trying to headbutt his way through the entire opposing army until he gets to their King
/how's my poetry?

Monkey,
Yeah but this commentariet makes so much fun of the tinfoil types who take off-beat political satire seriously and develop conspiracy theories from this entertaining info-mation...all the teasing about tinfoil...where do you think it comes from...the tinfoil ideas that is?

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

/how's my poetry?

It's better than your singing.

sdtfs
I saw a word fight happening so I did a semi-random excerpt from a Chomsky article so that I could win the fight. Even if one understands the paragraph, it should still leave the reader confused. The content is irrelevant to a linguist

sdtfs wrote:

It's better than your singing.

There's a new pop song out, Cascada - Evacuate the Dancefloor, a real club anthem. It's been bugging me because despite the message to evacuate the dancefloor, the song is really catchy and implicitly draws you to the dancefloor. No good can come of it

merchants of fear wrote:

all the teasing about tinfoil...where do you think it comes from...the tinfoil ideas that is?

It comes from the desire to have the events "make sense". It's far more comforting to think bad things are happening by design than to believe that despite all your precautions, quasi-random events can injure you. You may be able to fight an evil opponent, but you can't put up any defense to random chance.

Misinfo is everywhere on the net...it confuses people... misinfo news 'sources' start blaming weird crap like the Satanic Black Pope or Acorn for the Crash or whatever...I see people being accused of tinfoil comments so I decided to look into what tinfoil maybe and what good research may be...but the tinfoil label is thrown around a lot...many people get duped by shoddy info and get all riled and agitated over bogus crap and then are called tinfoil or paranoid...the best example I could give of this in the mainstream is Fox and on the internet, take your pick...there's a ton of crap like Fox but maybe worse...

This differs from the GSEs and Treasury buying underperforming assets from the banks at well above market value how?

sdtfs,
Try to refrain from the E word or evil...that's a discussion killer...if you don't think political/economies are designed but may be random(quasi-random?) or Black swans...I think maybe you missed something...they seem designed by Congress, the Executive branch, and the Fed to me...is TALF a 'designed' program or TARP?

btw Uribe of Colombia captured 4 Venezuelan military on a boat inside Colombia, and as a show of good faith he is loudly telling the whole world he will promptly return them to Venezuela. So he is conceding some domestic bonus points in the near term, to score more with the international view and slightly encourage Venezuela's domestic anti-Chavez crew. They're about do for a minor war aren't they?
Nobody ever backs down in those situations, they just better position themselves for a war and PR is an important part of that now. Why would Uribe give breathing space now after the last few years?
It would be an easy score for Obama to knock off Chavez, something Bush failed to do with that hilarious coup aired live on CNN, and Colombia is front of mind with the fresh FTA and a country that is intended to be a bulwark/model against Ecuador/Venezuela/Cuba/Bolivia/etc
besides, Colombia's military is already a big aid recipient and 10x bigger than its neighbors'

The 'trying to make sense' theme is what is randomly thrown at tinfoil people who may just be getting their info from inaccurate or unreliable news or internet sources...

jimmie infamy wrote:

So it does. The fact that it was a local event clouded my comprehension. But that would still mean national average household income is approx. $72K?

72K for those purchasing a home,...not your average Joe living in an apartment. And since you're looking at something Yun put out, it doesn't necessarily mean even that. You may want to remember that: Figures don't lie, but liars do figures.

sdtfs,
Tinfoil comes from tinfoil news programs and sites. The tinfoil is not IN the people necessarily (there are some paranoids) it is IN the tinfoil info being spread all over the place to misinform (and entertain?) people...

It's always perplexed me that Wilson Phillips' two biggest hits were Hold On and Release Me.

oh and the Venezuela stuff started flaring up shortly after whatever night it was that I mentioned a signaled 180° change on Afghanistan (post-Karzaigate, UK wasn't keen to renew. If Obama does anything less than 40k more troops to Afghanistan, it's because they calculated Brown is going to be turfed from office and his successor would not renew the commitment and that would definitely lead to the withdrawal of Germany, Italy, Netherlands)

they seem designed by Congress, the Executive branch, and the Fed to me...is TALF a 'designed' program or TARP?

Google some video of the Tacoma Narrows bridge and recall that it was "designed" to be a passageway between two points of land. What they got was something other than planned, something that looked like an amusement park ride for a while.
Now our economy as a design is laughable, and as you imply is designed by committees who have wildly differing objectives, none strictly speaking evil, but there are unintended consequences.

mof-

Real data is everywhere, interpretation of the data is where disinformation is born. Agenda is important and varies by the presenter and behind them who paid for the research. How many times do you read a headline purporting new information of a product, situation or policy and after reading the study find the cherry picked quote is untrue/out of context or heavily slanted to promote a certain perspective?

All information is propaganda regardless of the source. Believing academics present the unvarnished truth is a stretch when viewed through the above lens. Examples would be tobacco studies for dozens of years showed no harm to the user contrary to real data that showed increased health problems in conjunction with smoking. The current great debate on climate change is another long running debate with many different factions weighing in on the subject. I believe climate change is caused by human actions but I can't discount evidence presented otherwise...until I see the academic report was sponsored by the coal industry. The data they present is scientifically based and peer reviewed but still wouldn't have came into being without funding from a biased source. Does that make their argument/evidence disingenuous? To me it does but that is my perspective through my own personally formed filter.

I read much of what you link but always try to find the agenda behind the source. It is always there, who you are decides if you find the conclusions irrefutable or outlandish. Academics have to publish and procure funding for their institutions. Who pays is always relevant to the outcome.

heard this APEC Obama quote on the radio: "And this is where we can export more of our own products and create jobs back home in the process."
I laughed, absolutely does not fit within the context of APEC 2009. He's being very closely watched over there as it is his first visit, and I doubt it was worth it for any impact back home.

dude, linguists will never be the life of the party. everyone else uses language to communicate. linguists just use it to project how much consideration they give to how they're projecting how much consideration they give to how they're projecting how much consideration ....

sdtfs,
When you look at govt. or the FED they are organizations with hierarchy, a chain of command...it's a process and sure sht happens but when you look at credit cycles, deflationary cycles, cycles of war you can see patterns...choices were made within the organizations to pursue certain policies and the sht happens repeatedly because the same policies were followed although historical economic/political research identifies some cause-and-effect variables...anyway the sh*t keeps happening in similar ways - massive credit expansion/credit contraction - so 'quasi-random' expanations for historical events might have very little evidence to support except for a strong belief...like a religious maybe...or faith that is the way something happens...randomly

Damn, awesome comment.

choices were made within the organizations to pursue certain policies and the sht happens

Summed up by WL Livingston: "The Purpose of a System is What It Does"

  • A banking system that encouraged fraud, and created a destructive bubble
  • A prison system that imprisons a population that enjoys weed
  • A food industry that turns citizens into bloated addicts

We need a reset.

MoF, thx for the compliment, I think. Your grammatical construct was a reach and a half, what I call as useless and weird. WTF, if you're too stupid to understand what I'm saying, calling weird points out how shall I say it, an underlying issue. Get a mirror; take a look. As I say, I'm doin' fine, and as most of my working friends would say, I've lived a life of being on vacation, but somehow being so didn't always feel that way. As to not getting what I write, I'd say that numerous posters miss the points as they're not as broadly exposed to life's experiences. Recall I mentioned the Grotto? Think Hef. I'm not really writing to the lumpen here. I'm quite comfy with my postings. I believe they're dead on, and but for my one prior observation that Palin didn't birth that mongoloid based on photos within weeks of her "birthing", no public hospital record posting, an improbable water break and 12 hour rush back from TX on commercial planes to "birth" in AK (infection? faggedaboudit; as an obstetrician if they even think it was feasible, never mind its legality), and that none of her friends I've seen interviewed said they knew aboudit in real time, nah, but for that, I've been as I say quite accurate in my posted understandings. Your associating me with your hoghuey is your biz, not mine. Stick the tail on your own ass and be proud to wear it.

China rounds on U.S. rates as global economic risk
| Reuters

BEIJING (Reuters) - Ultra-low interest rates in the United States are fuelling speculation in overseas asset markets and threatening the global economic recovery, [Chinese banking regulator Liu Mingkang] said on Sunday.

bwahahaha, you break you buy!

MoF, "when you look at credit cycles, deflationary cycles, cycles of war you can see patterns"
With this as I know only market cycles in the S&P/DJIA and Spot Gold, I agree. There are distinct patterns, with the most obvious being during the greatest times of stress.

Externalized Costs,
Agreed...research is funded...consider the source...The Fed paper about Talf was enthusiastic about reviving securitization (I thought that was interesting)...financial/currency crises studies look for causes of collapses...of course I don't see these econ papers say blaming the FED...many of these papers are done by the FED...but there is at least some useful info to glean from some economic research rather than say go to 'gold bug analysis' sites where maybe someone is trying to sell gold...product sales research of course are spun maybe to sell products...tobacco sales and earlier research was one of the great cover-ups or conspiracies to harm people...

Err, is the tax carry forward provision mentioned in an earlier thread, in the context of homebuilders, in any way an attempt to preserve the deferred tax assets that Rolfe Winkler mentions here:

Reuters.com

Apparently greater than 1/3 of Citi's capital is DTAs, which will, or would normally, melt away...

All LiuMingkang needs to do is retract his blood probe tie from the USD and he's home free.
What an arrogant fool. Drop the link. Interest rates aren't the problem.

Slumdog,
Don't take it the wrong way...I've read your comments...and some stuff you say makes sense...we're you Gaudia Ray before?
You do what I do tho and bite on chum, get hooked, and thrown out...your gold strategy Is what you say it is...there's no verification on a blog...my stuff repeats too...I see repetition in some of your stuff...but everyone here repeats their beliefs sooner or later...I could mention other posters but why get into silly flame wars...once in a while I read your stuff and say...'I think he's starting a flame war'...

I'm so embarrassed. I turned on my ignore user list.

A flame war is started by getting personal and not discussing issues or reasonable research or topics you may have brought up...which can be ignored by starting a personal flame war...and you end up going in a silly circle and the 'discussion' is lost somehow...

Rob Dawg wrote:

I'm so embarrassed. I turned on my ignore user list.

So how does that work? Can we say bad stuff about you and you don't see it?
.
.
.
Why won't you respond?

Edit: Ohhhh, never mind.

Slumdog,
You lean towards the namecalling as do others on CR sometimes and it gets you on ignore lists maybe and kills discussions as can say agreeing with anything you say maybe...this site presents ideas as to why this mess is happening and the namecalling distracts from that IMO...this site has some good discussion...

"but there is at least some useful info to glean from some economic research rather than say go to 'gold bug analysis' sites where maybe someone is trying to sell gold..."

But the gold sellers posting to induce gold sales might be true believers. They actually believe their own hype from their perspective. Are they wrong? Are they dishonest in their support? Personal bias is a bitch to discern and disregard. Nigh near impossible in most cases.

Your point that you can glean useful data and make use of it in your own framework of understanding is valid but then you have your own personal bias coloring the use of that data. Absolutes are comparable to the quest for perfection.

I appreciate your efforts to enlighten with your frequent links. Just wanted to point out that the conclusions I reach might vary greatly from what you thought it would promote.
g'night all

sdtfs wrote:

So how does that work? Can we say bad stuff about you and you don't see it?

Sure but I'll still cry a little just knowing I'm not universally loved. No, it takes a really pathological confluence for me to resort to filtering.

All the crap that's happenin' in the conony is 'hoghuey'...agree with that...don't you think (commentariet) if something is happening that is taking money from people who don't want to lose their money and have worked hard to save their money...there would be an effort to spin this away from those most responsible for the 'wealth transfer'...

True EC..I have a spin...I don't think this Crash was an accident or 'quasi-random' and other Crashes in the past were probably NOT just accidental or a result of idiocy...that's my bias if you will...

Acculturation marker! (Maxim flouted).

C

Counterpointer & EHP,
Do you think economic Crashes in the past were randon, 'quasi-random', accidental, or a result of political and economic leaders idiocy?
Just wondering what you think?

Random as having no direction or planning...

Rob Dawg,
Same question...just idiots, bad luck, or accident...why this Crash is happening?

MoF, your assumption is that store of wealth trumps employment.
As I have it, I wish it were so. But the fact is that life continues and the mass of the nation-state's human population must eat and do something with their time. That's called "employment".

So, those holding the wheel of power in this case inherited a real mess; the first world was insolvent... including the derivatives, it was a hundred years insolvent. What were they to do? Shout "Jubilee"?

Instead, what they're saying is what you saw when we entered won't be what you see when we leave. And they promptly went about saving the Primary Dealers so they didn't lose their pipeline to dump their debt onto the world, and they went about the long Bataan Death March of the USD to terminate the power of the debt. We're in Act 2, Scene 2 of a long, long play.

SOPHISTICAL.

Truth condition (exemplar).

C

Ken- I think those tiles are affecting the comments. Read this thread and tell me if you think maybe the tiles are in the wrong order.

Random like weather. You can manage for seasons in general but you cannot turn winter into summer without destroying the climate. And therein lies the hubris of recent fiscal policies.

Slumdog - 12:53 a.m. 'makes some sense'

MoF, the actual turning point at the beginning of the crisis has never been seen by me as a chart pattern so perfect that the odds of it not being what I saw were to me impossible. Hence, I went short in late '07 and again shortly thereafter.

The reasons for the Depression are less important than the fact that on a mass scale, when there is panic, the behavioral outcome is predictable to a high degree of accuracy... again only when the stress is extreme. That doesn't mean the signs within the socioeconomic reality are recognizable to the observer, but on a chart, the pattern is recognizable.

I called the big move up in the DJIA, which I did not trade as I had very few prior proofs of pattern, but I called it the Big OK Checkmark, and if you look at a daily pattern over the past 8 months or so, there it is, the Chevy OK Checkmark. Patterns repeat, a theme and variations.

What caused this? I've found that real world causes are way too difficult to discern. The pattern speaks for itself. Baruch said, 2 + 2 = 4

Counterpointer wrote:

Resolution.

Well, I had hoped to see if C could get it up again after his 'resolution', but I need to get up tomorrow. Nytol

that Grave Dancer line of Zell's a few posts back couldn't believe JuvvieD or sportsfan or any of the other wits didn't jump
all over it...
Tina Turner's Private Dancer lyrics are just waiting to be subverted for a cheap laugh
.....

the following lyrics are from Lil' Wayne
(with some slight mods)

you tryin to close me but I will not answer

gold digger just wanna be my grave dancer

And REO slut wanna be my private chauffeur

To ride that boy toy like a roller coaster

Get on it and Get to it

Get on it and Get to it

REO Ho Yeah (Do u) G-digger Yeah (Do U)

Girl pop (Do me) Girl stop
....
....
must go - have a date tonight with the hottest of hotties, it also means her girl crew comes along on my tab - do the clubs, buy a bottle all for under a C Note [try and do that in NYC!] but I wake up tomorrow
feeling a bit like Julius Caesar, that or Ramon Navarro Wink

Good news. I'll be back on Con Dao Island for a Dec 31st wedding. I'm doing a Napoleon Elba reversal. Back into the breach once more I go for the Duchess with all the panache of Raleigh Hey. that's why they call me the Crown Duke

From a puff piece on Jerry Williams,

"Chairman of the Florida Bankers Association, a board member of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta and a member of the government relations council of the American Bankers Association, he's on the move from sunup to sundown"
Here's the link: Nonstop Jerry | Biz941

It's from 2006. Yeah, he's "connected". I suppose this answers Lawyer Liz's question about his being prosecuted, or maybe not.

There's lots more about Jerry Williams including his political contributions, if you google "Jerry Williams Naples". He should have a fine second career in politics......sheesh.

China: Low US interest rates threaten recovery
BusinessWeek - 19 minutes ago
China's top bank regulator said Sunday the weakening US dollar and low interest rates are spurring speculation in stocks and property, distorting global asset prices and threatening the global economic recovery.
China: Loose US Policy, Weak USD Creating Speculation Wall Street Journal
China's Liu Says US Rates Cause Dollar Speculation Bloomberg

The commies are better economists than tax cheat Timmy.

The question is are we going to have a v, w, or l shaped recovery? I am betting on a W.

Nicolas Cage loses 2 homes in foreclosure auction

comrade Mike
I'm sure of Cage hooked up with Jim the Realtor they'd have a hit reality show on their hands..
Nicholas could play the bad realtor and Jim the good... imagine Cage scaring the crap out of prospects
and Jim giving them the velvet treatment... or Cage could threaten deadbeats to move out of their
REO prop.

Slumdog wrote:

the actual turning point at the beginning of the crisis has never been seen by me as a chart pattern so perfect that the odds of it not being what I saw were to me impossible.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but other than this waterboarded 'sentence' the post is clear and understandable.

Let's see, from the actual turning point chart pattern was missed entirely by you, therefore you went short. Or did you mean, the chart was so clear a blinded rat could trade it correctly?

No doubt you did well. Good on you. I admire strength of conviction evidenced by Benjamins on the table.

And all else I agree with. The question is, now that we have the big ole checkmark, what's next.

I can't help but wonder, what with all the pros lined up against the door, that when it comes it will surprise everybody. And how could that be, volker, since you have said it so well.

Because I don't know shit for sure. It ain't my game, but I can call it from the press box.

I want to hear anybody's take--slumdog, EHP, C, RD, but not you noob Smile --on what is coming next in the way of a defining trend. This up up and away horseshit is getting tiresome. Fewer are fooled every day/week/month. Volume so thin you could play like a xylophone on the ribs. A retest of the March lows has to happen before any light spills out from the Eastern horizon.

might as well use this to figure out the why of whats happening now
Aviation Accident Law -Causes of Plane Crashes

Duke of Con Dao wrote:

I'm sure of Cage hooked up with Jim the Realtor they'd have a hit reality show on their hands..

I'm thinking Cage may see a brighter future for himself, what with his real talent.

Think John Stamos

.....Good morning........it looks like CR took some much deserved time off..........good for him......he surely had it coming.

Black Star Ranch wrote:

.....Good morning.....

the rooster done crowed three times

LOL.......Well, sorry....I had to do my morning dishes, clean-up after a coffee maker mess, and separate cream for butter........Interesting article from Ron Holland:.....

"Short of the government mending its ways and learning to live within its means, there's only one way for it to defuse the ticking debt time bomb. The government still has the power to inflate most of the debt away -- in effect, a default in slow motion. But that's a tricky process to control and would risk pulling the U.S. into South American style price inflation -- 20%, 30% or more per year.........because of all the expensive mistakes the U.S. government has made and keeps making, it could turn out to be the least bad thing to happen......Our first priority should be to stop playing the enemy's game. Stop believing everything can be made right by America's closed, two-party system........ if you have any confidence in what the establishment politicians of either party promise, you should think again."

Ron Holland on Creeping US Authoritarianism, the Decline of the Dollar why Switzerland Remains the Destination of Choice for Concerned Investors

Bernie Madoff also had a plan....

They should have closed 1000 banks this year. Next year, the banks that close will have 2 years of rot in the foundations.

volker, I'll take a stab at it.

I see the hot money flowing into developing markets subject to malinvestment and probably a reversal. Building new manufacturing facilities for export-driven economies requires consumer demand in the first world.

I see Japan nearing an impasse in public debt/GDP ratio. After two decades of QE, they are at or nearing a point where QE produces no return, and where debt service spins out of control. [edit:] This can manifest itself with little or no warning. It hasn't received much attention, generally.

I see China, India, Russia and the other 'tigers' contributing to a melt-up of commodities and PMs. There is certainly an unplanned economic event gaining probability for either Russia or China, or both.

Regardless of which of these is first to occur, the others will be triggered - money flowing back out of the developing world, and a most inconvenient for US exports strengthening of the dollar. Strong dollar impacts equities and the bond markets. Treasuries become the only game in town. GDP dull as ditchwater.

What's best for the economy in the long run is not necessarily best for most of the citizens. Also, short term pain for some citizens leads to irreversible economic damage and unexpected consequences. Food riots are not good for the economy--financial collapse is not good for the citizenry either. Balancing these twin groups leads to credible complaints from all sides. Our discourse would be more seemly if it had practical alternatives addressing both economics and sociology--showing respect for both disciplines. And, good morning!!

Actually, Williams sounds like he would be a perfect fit for government office.

CalculatedRisk wrote:

Yeah - loan money to a straw borrower (apparently breaking a law) to have the borrower buy bad assets from the bank and invest in stock. Luckily Orion is a private company or there would be many more problems

But this kind of behavior is nothing new in the banking world. In the book 1907 F Augustus Heinze who was president of a bank arranged a loan from his bank to his brother to help him corner the market in a stock. There are many other cases in history where bankers treated their bank as a private piggybank, but today you have to be a bit more clever about it. In the 1920's a lot of this went on as well.
Somehow every so often bankers loose all sense of good ethical behavior and go with the herd over the cliff. Chuck Prince of Citi said that he knew what was happening would end badly but since the end was not proclaimed in the heavens could not stop playing.

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