That’s some return on investment. After spending its $210,000, Pulte will receive $450 million in refunds. And Hovnanian, after spending its $222,000, will get as much as $275 million.

The fact that Congress had no problem with this math tells me that I'm screwed.

Hoocoodanode our "representatives" were such cheap dates?

tis the gift giving season afterall.

CR - This appears to be very un-Amerikan as the Big O was going to curTALE this activity.

(btw the name Gretchen Morgenson bring fond memories of so acurate reporting..)

This means the Pulte and Hovnanian guys get bonuses, right?

where is rich - I want to know how to factor in lobbying as a data point for stock picks

Nemo wrote:

They got caught by a once-in-a-lifetime crisis that nobody could have predicted.

It is almost like we don't even need tax laws. We don't tax 'em too hard when times are good and give back whatever taxes they paid when times are bad. It is almost like the IRS is just pork spending at this point.

what's that term for breaking social conventions and saying aloud what everyone is thinking whilst in polite company? because Mrs Morgenson just did that,

*there are no more Latinos *

ya but what 'bout the latinas?

btw nova I always use the shopping bag visual to get a sense of activity

The money isn't in being a member of Congress. It's being a lobbyist afterward. You see they still have access to the gym and other facilities.

I'm all in favor of CR repeating this post just to emphasize it. The piece is too good

"The suckers are gonna lose it all. I might as well get as much of it as I can."
-- a quote from an ex-commodity-broker friend, who lost it all and drove a cab in Vegas.

It dudn't really matter anymore, does it?

If you're not preparing for a continuing dive in the USD, you're either Rip Van Winkle still dead asleep or you've been drinking the bong water.

Today at a high end restaurant that just opened here in town, quite filled with those who can afford same, at lunch, the waiter claimed he works on the SF Exchange and trades FourEx...The Waiter!! When I said the USD is heading for .52, he refused to believe it. When I said gold would go to 1600 this year and then 2000 and then 6000, he choked and chortled. Cognitive dissonance. At least he has a safe job.

Yeah, I use the bags too. Not a lot of them. Today, the crowd was obviously doing the stroll. Latinos? Almost all the bodegas are gone here too.

Nova:

Wife dragged me to the mall today. Seemed very slow. JC Penney and Macy's seemed to have more staff than shoppers. Very few help wanted signs: looks like most stores already have the staff they need. Then again, anecdotal evidence is just that.

In DC a lot of it is about access and connections. The Hon. Tommy LastYear literaly has physical access. In the post 9/11 DC that is worth a lot.

My Mother told me about how she was out on a lobbyist boat on the Potomac. When he was coming in and I think looking for dock space he said he was the Hon. xxxxxxxx which he was. It was just 10 years ago but he was still allowed to use it.

CR:

The poor don't have lobbyists. Hovanian, BAC, GS and Lockheed Martin do. I've been reading a lot of Roman history lately, mostly Gibbon and Tacitus. It is comforting to see that some things are constant throughout history.

Stimulus directed to the poor has to help maintain domestic peace and provide a base of support for the party in power.

Well sure, but what did Minsky know about financial instability and debt deflation?

I remember a thread of predictions about which major homebuilder would go bk first (beazer, pulte, etc). I think this was before Bear Stearns (really ancient history). I wonder why these guys have held up better than banks, etc.

have you guys read john mauldin's latest newsletter?

Besides, nobody ever listens to old "Broken" Hyman Minsky.

The Beatles - Helter Skelter Rehearsal

YouTube - The Beatles - Helter Skelter Rehearsal

Slumdog,

What if I don't want to be rich?

"Ravi Batra in his book Greenspan Fraud also claimed that stimulus directed to the poor had the most immediate and fullest impact."

Like hell it does. They go to Walmart and Costco and buy foreign goods. Almost all the money, but for profit and wages to the service sector (wanna hot dog?), flows immediately outside the country.

If the US govt doesn't tie a Made in USA rock to the money it gives to the poor, it's just more printing and more dilution and higher gold and more impoverishment for the middle class.

Someone's gotta get real.

Speaking of financial ruin:

High Costs Weigh On Troop Debate For Afghan War - NY Times

Perhaps promising to make Afghanistan and Pakistan the focus of US foreign policy wasn't the greatest decision.

"If the US govt doesn't tie a Made in USA rock to the money it gives to the poor, it's just more printing and more dilution and higher gold and more impoverishment for the middle class." - Slumdog

irrefutable logic -

Slumdog wrote:

flows immediately outside the country

The trade deficit is only 6% of GDP. Therefore, one can conclude that approximately 94% of what is spent goes to domestic produced goods and services (we still grow our own food, mine our own coal, iron, glod, copper, charge outrageous credit card interest rates, etc.)

TJ and The Bear wrote:

You didn't notice that I'd quoted it twice within the last 2 hours?

ha! no, sorry. i just stopped in.

the structural unemployment thesis

Conjure will be addressing structural unemployment in his upcoming occasional paper.

Nuke wrote:

CR:

The poor don't have lobbyists. Hovanian, BAC, GS and Lockheed Martin do. I've been reading a lot of Roman history lately, mostly Gibbon and Tacitus. It is comforting to see that some things are constant throughout history.

Sure they do. They're just not as well-funded and have a harder time bringing focused pressure to bear on a specific issue or person, so they're less effective. There are plenty of non-profit organizations that lobby on behalf of poor, or other socially-marginalized people.

However, I'll show my stripes a little and say I can't blame the lobbyists alone. I've lobbied on more than a few issues that politicians have had no appetite on, and had those successes were really forced. You can move a reticent politician or two in favour of a position with focused pressure, but to get the kind of broad support this initiative had they're really just pushing something that the politicians already wanted. If you want an example of a lobbyist-driven policy, a good start would be the 2008 Farm Bill.

Lobbying--at least on this file--probably provided the initial policy suggestion and a summary of support, but it was quickly internalized and ultimately approved by the politicians. This one simply went too smoothly to be a result of back-room lobbying alone.

The lobbyists may have baked the cake, but it was the politicians that gorged themselves on it. They didn't shove it down their throat, like some other policies.

Barley wrote:

CHICAGO (Nov. 3) - Nearly half of all U.S. children

Speaking of The Poor, Chicago & WalMart, most of the poor in the city limits of Chicago likely are NOT spending their food stamps at Walmart. There are surprisingly few Wal Marts within the the 220+ sq. mil of the City; organized residents and unions have kept WalMart out. Unfortunately, there are proportionately few chain grocers near poor neighborhoods (Jewels, Dominicks are the leader chains, with Whole Foods waay behind). So at least for the US' 3rd most populous city, much of the food stamps will turnover via locally-owned small grocers as well as at the Jewel & Dominicks chains. At 220 sq. mi, it's quite a haul to get to the city limits to a WalMart.
And since food stamps primarily pay for food, I doubt a lot of WalMart's food stamp-eligible food comes in ocean containers from China.

Slumdog wrote:

Walmart is nearly door to door Chinese.

Out of curiosity, do you have evidence of this, or is it just repeating the same old meme? I know of a few instances where Sams Club was one of the only retailers to carry a few locally-produced products, and they're a Walmart derivative. Is there some sort of empirical evidence that Costco has more USA-centric sourcing practices, or do people just want to believe it?

Slumdog wrote:

Walmart is nearly door to door Chinese.

try to find "Made in the USA" in target. i challenge you. if you skip the cosmetic / hygiene aisles, it will take you awhile.

The 99 cent bags you use to cart the crap out of Walmart? From China.
You folks are kidding me, right? Plastics? Metals? Electronics? Clothing?
Oh, dog food, aka lunch, is domestic.

Somebody better open a window, I'm getting a secondary high.

noob goldberg wrote:

I've lobbied on more than a few issues that politicians have had no appetite on, and had those successes were really forced.

Noob, do you lobby in Canada or in the US?

As are most condiments.

Slumdog wrote:

Rocky R, in the cereal section at Target, I think the vast majority is Made in USA.

the same could be said of wally world.

scotch time.

and that leaves what?

Actually, there are more.

We're saving some as a surprise.

Avl Dao wrote:

Noob, do you lobby in Canada or in the US?

Exclusively Canada. My impression when I read his posts is that Terry has far better connections in the American lobbying realm than I do.

However, lobbying is lobbying, when you get down to brass tacks. Endless meetings, sticks and carrots, etc. I'm just relating my impression when I read this story. If their budget was only $6 million, it's unlikely that was enough to simply pay them off, if that was their approach.

nova:

It leaves government and the military. I posted an article last night about a woman who got laid off from a factory and was looking for government work. Her husband hadn't worked steady in 2 years. In the future, everyone will work for the state, financed by China (until it is no longer in their interest to drag our corpse around).

Nuke,

Going to be tough for the state, or county, as they don't have the tax money to pay them.

some investor guy wrote:

This isn't about jobs. This is about contributions, lobbying and asset values.

Agreed, Inner Workings » Blog Archive » It’s About the Death of Small Business

mp --

do you have idea as to when the paper will be available?

IIRC, the mp organization was war gaming their risk matrix this weekend, so the COP (Conjure Occasional Paper) would come out sometime thereafter...which is another item that would be, ummm interesting in a macabre way - the risk matrix, that is...

Sorry, our risk matrix will never see the light of day.

noob goldberg wrote:

However, lobbying is lobbying,

Noob, I'd like to believe...and please indulge my naivetee....that lobbying is proving particularly corrosive in the US compared to efforts taken at financial reform etc in most G-8 calibre nations.

Slumdog wrote:

noob, "However, lobbying is lobbying, when you get down to brass tacks. Endless meetings, sticks and carrots, etc." Well thought mutil-approach strategies, executed with the cooperation of vested interest entities who are your enemy's enemy, lilliputians with a mission, can be effective up to a point.

You have to sway, correct me if I'm wrong. something like 220 votes in the House. The approach you've indicated is useful when you have 190 votes and need to get the last 30, for example. The approach you've outlined is useless if you're starting from scratch.

'No gratuitous slams' is correct. There's a reason why Greenpeace is completely neutered in terms of effectiveness: they rail against everything. However, I also know of quite a few organizations that have better political relationships to government than mine (i.e. no gratuitous slams); however, when track records are compared we are more effective. It's because we engage a large base of support, we avoid proposing any policies that have zero appetite from politicians, and we work with bureaucrats beforehand to develop policies that they'll sign off on before we ever take them in front of a politician.

noob "This isn't anything new. It's contrary to the WTO commitments of the USA; you'd best understand that your 'tank battalions' would spark an all-out trade war awfully quickly."
Yes, the last cash in the trash federal legislation tried Made in USA and that was removed. That was a very broad piece of legislation. The outcome has been the tariffs on Chinese goods within the past 2 weeks.

All out trade war? The US has lost. The bastards who have been screaming for open playing fields have been the FIRE players, and they screwed the US public so badly, and the backlash, here too, has led to even the FDIC bitch is rubbing Preparation H on her tush.

The FIRE players honestly deserve imprisonment. They've destroyed hundreds of years of effort in the US and the West. Instead, they're getting bonuses. All God's work.

I don't think your mention and thus thought that it's an obvious threat of a trade war means jack when the US public has U6 22% plus unemployment. Need I repeat tiny jobs offered attracting hundreds of candidates? Trade war? Stop waiving the stupid flag. It's cute; but it's a paper tiger. The system here must reboot.

The game has always been about jobs. The obvious intention by the US to destroy the store of value has the very rich scurrying for gold, foreigh and commodity cover. I believe that most will get screwed by the lateness of their actions, not by outright cheating.

it's the jobs, baby.

slumdog,

I think I understand what you are saying now. You believe that you can grab the ring before the carusel stops? You believe it will stop, if not out right fall apart from lack of maintenance and parts being stolen. You are into gold because you see that as where you will find your highest, and fastest rate of return?

Conjure will be talking about GATT, that's certain.

And NAFTA.

A "Risk Matrix" would make a really cool open source project.

I endorse this suggestion!

Structural UE in a wide range of sectors, multilateral trade agreements...dang...how long does the wind up to the big brawl take? (I know, I know got to keep some surprizes for later )

I assumed all developed countries had that type of restriction, but maybe the Vampire Squid from Hell found a loophole.

The loophole is called Timmie Geithner....and whatever Robert Rubin's and Hank Paulson's spawn still lurking in dark dank corners of Congress, Treasury, Congress.

OT: I've been a lurker for a few years now.
I am interested in a local meeting. I'm in the SoCal/Inland Empire area. I just want to know if there’s any interest out there? /Thanks

ov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- John Paulson disclosed that his hedge-fund group acquired 300 million shares of Citigroup Inc. during the third quarter, while selling its entire stake of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The Citigroup holding, listed by New York-based Paulson & Co. yesterday in a regulatory filing, marks his second billion- dollar-plus investment in a bank that received government bailout funds during the credit crunch. Paulson’s group bought 168 million shares of Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp. in the second quarter.

Paulson, who earned some $2 billion last year in part by betting that the housing market would collapse, has invested in bank stocks that plunged during the 2008 financial crisis. He sold shares during the third quarter in Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase & Co., while building a stake in a bank that remains partly owned partly owned by the government.

Paulson Takes Citigroup Stake, Sells Goldman Sachs Shares - Bloomberg.com

nova wrote:

A "Risk Matrix" would make a really cool open source project.

Yes, though necessarily at a macro level - or perhaps at several levels: global, national, regional (sub-national units, my bias is North American but that is my myopia) - the specifics of a personal/household would be left to the reader as an exercise

noob, thx for the heads up. There are lots of companies in the USA pretending to be Made in USA. They're brands; they're importers. Hathaway Shirt Company comes to mind. His furniture? It ain't from NC... oh, maybe it is NC, Quangdong. Beefy Tee's? Made in Mexico, and every southern nafta, cafta location possible. And our foreign aid dollars? African/Egyptian/Israeli/Jordanian flows of stuff that can be made here shortly, as the buck drops, as cheaply as there. The tragedy continues to be that the brands are so greedy, they've refused to cut profit; instead, they export the work. It's the jobs, baby, and the brands, when they stand up, are gonna get hit hard. That "Mad as hell, won't take it any more" view is palpable amongst every blue collar person in America. They'll rally around, "It's the jobs, baby."

energycon,

That is why it would have to be open source. Crunch it by farming it out to PC's. Let it mutate. Shoot it up with Google.

rebear
his career after his first term?

Hathaway Shirt Company

My favorite shirt. Alas, no longer US made.

But, you can find a few if you know where to look.

Slumdog wrote:

It's the jobs, baby, and the brands, when they stand up, are gonna get hit hard. That "Mad as hell, won't take it any more" view is palpable amongst every blue collar person in America. They'll rally around, "It's the jobs, baby."

It doesn't matter if your guys provide more jobs than some of the fake USA companies, just if people think those companies provide American jobs.

That's why I asked the Costco question earlier: does it really source more American stuff, or do people just think it does?

EDIT: Because if Costco comes out against your policy, for example, and you can't show that they're sourcing 90% of their stuff from China, people's impression that they source domestically will weaken your lobby.

Bribes are always the highest return investments

It was one thing to hold the carrot up to the Chinese waterbuffalo who's pulled the cart in "our direction". It's another to get that squid's blood probe out of our eyes.

FIRE is a fair target, though the USGov is so married to debt and believes it must have Primary Dealers who are big enough to shovel that paper when needed that it is a horse in a different stable. I'd say China's the first way in. The public doesn't "get" the financial game. They do "get" the loss of jobs game. The workers are marginally concerned; their bosses are much more so. How much more so? Well, if we threaten to walk, some of them would be hurting meaningfully, and we're growing, so as their other biz shrinks, they get bones tossed by us, and they will follow the playbook that our strategists will develop. Why not? Heads they win. Tails, they run risk. It's not a difficult call.

It's the Obama thing, "United We Stand", which I think is BS, but the concept of "United", amongst those who are still generating profits, paying taxes, and carrying the econony...well there are a lot fewer of us, so our voices get a little bit louder.

This is still about 6 months away. Nothing moves without prior ad nauseum gaming the plans. It's the fog of war when we reach for those zippers, and I like to think we're patterning ourselves after Mrs. Bobbit when we do so.

noob goldberg wrote:

That's why I asked the Costco question earlier: does it really source more American stuff, or do people just think it does?

Maybe....maybe...it is easier to answer that question about clothing and toys rather than about automobiles and airplane components. Seems there was a bit of a consensus that it's dang hard to narrow down what component came from where, and from whose labor, when it comes to cars and complex items like planes. I'd gather that digital cameras and flat-screens TV are the about the most complex item carried by retailers and perhaps it is easier to answer the question for them as well as for clothing, shoes, and packaged food and toiletries.

rajesh, thank you for that link.

I would also like to say thanks to EHP, guy put out magnificent links today in the comments.

prediction:

Broward is just about to take a shower and go out on the town, but he'll stop in to share some ideas about rationing workloads for American workers.

bANK fAILURE wrote:

prediction:

Broward is just about to take a shower and go out on the town, but he'll stop in to share some ideas about rationing workloads for American workers.

That's about as safe a bet as there is. Too bad we can't buy call options.

Slumdog wrote:

You're right about what you say about any target. As I said, there's a lot of game strategization necessary...hence months and months out, and this for just a small piece of the pie.

Well I wish you the best of luck. Big lobbies are always exciting, especially when they bring a bunch of people together who don't usually play well together.

When you get close to 95% of the ILGWU jobs gone overseas, there's a helluva vulnerability that no BS campaign by the VF's of the world will be able to avoid. Some are scrambling now for Made in USA. They've screwed the workers of the USA, who in turn took the candy gladly, as long as it wasn't their own, and still do at Walmart, every day... sorta just like the bribery people do, they set up the money, and the Washington's of the LA world can't keep their noses away from that financial cocaine.

As I said, we have our niche and we're gonna work that angle. I'm not interested in becoming president. i just want the flow to turn away from overseas, and back into the USA, like the Colorado River filling the Salton Sea, it's time for a shift of direction, at least one that will help out this poor slave who's miffed that he's confronting idiots who suck all the profit as brands and as middlemen instead of taking less and employing the lumpen proletariats.

This opens a heckuva discussion on what's a nation-state, and on the boiled-noodle-sewing-event called reassembling boiled spaghetti. Keeping it simple, noob, thx again for the engagement.

slumdog
Toilet Paper Manufacturers | Toilet Paper Encyclopedia

Because it's not about the working class. It's another game strategy for making money.

nova wrote:

how do you square your love for the working class with your desire to become rich from gold slumdog?

He loves the working class because they give him the money to buy gold with.

nova wrote:

It's another game strategy for making money.

My impression is not only that, but exclusively extracting value rather than creating it...

Anyone seen Liz tonight? I've just been told I need to rent a 4 bedroom house in Florida for the Christmas holiday, and I was wondering if she knew of anyone who had something available in a nice area

km4 wrote:

Barack Obama bows and talks of green tea icecream as he pushes US ties in Asia - Telegraph

That's to show he bows to everyone and not just the Saudi King. Nice move!

I love the clinically sterile smell of coldly rational self-interested capitalism in the evening...

We don't curtesy and we don't bow. Jeebus.

Noob, I've slept with Buy American and Made in USA for a long time, analogous to who you've been racking with for a long time. We do biz with a Canuck outfit now who meets Berry Amendment requirements via their this-side-of-the-border mfging plant.

I think that when JQPublic gets pissed, the crowd mentality doesn't stop to work out the refinements of 10% here and 70% there and this or that. My neighbor has a tenant (as these old estates around here invite boarders) who is a working class uneducated person who's suffering dearly from the vanishment of construction work. His term for the gov't is "weasels". He even says they're not real humans, that they're humanoids. If one could goad that man, he'd be ready to act out, if he were part of a crowd. It's that mentality that powered the French Revolution. They're broke and they're pissed. As I said, it will take some interesting planning to get what we want. We know the targets. There's a lot to do to prep. When we shoot each target, and corral them in razor wire, they iz gonna be immobilized. But again, vested interests are vested, and once done, we realize there's a lot more mop up work required. So, what to cut off and how to do it is the gaming that's just now underway. For you as outsider, it's thrilling; for me, it's a distraction and an annoyance. Unintended consequences need to be identified up front and they too may be able to be turned to our favor.

Meanwhile, the significant other wants me to faggedaboudit and go on vacation for the rest of my life. Like Macbeth's mom, the black spot just doesn't go away.

patientrenter, I think we'll see quite a different regulatory regime from what we currently have, once the dust settles, and it will be due to the very folks you mention.

As I said, it will take some interesting planning to get what we want. We know the targets. There's a lot to do to prep. When we shoot each target, and corral them in razor wire, they iz gonna be immobilized. But again, vested interests are vested, and once done, we realize there's a lot more mop up work required.

Wow. A heroic Facist hero who is going to save us! Then, despite the burdens he carries, he will smile and wave as he is driven down Main st.

slumdog, guess who these are oriental foods
Welcome to Williams Foods - Chili Seasoning Spices

gabyjan,

He won't answer you. He is targeting specific posters and pinging off them to present his message.

noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 11/14/2009 - 7:36 pm
RockyR wrote:
That's not bowing that he's doing... Well, SOME people call it bowing.

Ok then it's a bona fide genuflect - Definition from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary

noob +1

noob
people just want to believe it

nuke,

I don't know. I have ideas but I am not anyone important. I do think the only way change that amounts to anything wil happen is going to require a system reboot. As someone who has read a lot of history I do not look forward to that. Not so much for me, but for my daughter.

I think changing laws will not help at this point. Changing peoples hearts and minds is going to be what it takes.

Avl Dao wrote:

And everytime I see someone trudging out a newspiece on Sarah Palin this & Sarah Palin that, i smirk..

Why? Right-wing Republicans are close to irrelevant right now. The people in power right now happen to be of the opposite political party. Anyway, the party labels are irrelevant, unless you are in that game, or enjoy spectating. I don't see any measurable difference in their readiness, willingness, and ability to intervene badly in the economy.

Barfly, why do you think those 5 are going to lead us in a different direction than the one they've been pulling us in for the last 12 months or so?

"If their budget was only $6 million, it's unlikely that was enough to simply pay them off, if that was their approach."

The homebuilder tax credit is such bad policy and so low profile, it looks like a job for off-budget freezer cash. Registered lobbyists were probably not even involved.

Slumdog used to be known as "Gaudia Ray" on Mish's site. He was banned there. He likes to stir the pot, so to speak.

patientrenter wrote:

i smirk.. Why? Right-wing Republicans are close to irrelevant right now.

PR, you went on to provide the answer as to why I 'smirk" each time they trudge out Sarah Palin; they being the Dems and NPR.
U explained my reasoning when you typed in ur reasoning.

Disgusting. Reprehensible. This should be the top headline on every news station.

I especially 'loved' the part where they state they're going to buy land with the money.

Because I want corporations owning everything they can and then not have to pay taxes on anything.

Avl Dao wrote:

U explained my reasoning when you typed in ur reasoning

Sorry, I was slow.

nova - Hearts and minds aren't changed by attempting to use or subvert a corrupt system, unfortunately. A corrupt system eventually corrupts anyone and anything that engages it. Also, I can't compete with a natural psychopath in making rational economic decisions. A purely rational agent is willing to do things I'm not and to consider alternatives I wouldn't think of.

albrt wrote:

The homebuilder tax credit is such bad policy

I may be mistaken but I don't believe the tax credit is specific to home builders. They were the poster child and they lobbied hard for it but I believe it applies to many businesses (those that have had two losses for the past few years but were profitable and paid taxes before that.) That is part of why is was so popular with politicians.

Found the article for the current edition of Energy Policy by Aleklett et. al., The Peak of the Oil Age - analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008
http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/PeakOilAge.pdf

Really lagging...

speaking of the lobby-spawned tax decision at the heart of this thread, Im guessing it will really turn out not to be $ millions in actual cash refunds 2 major homebuilders in the amounts cited, but instead will be a reduction a 'credit' in the taxes paid once those homebuilders are required to pay taxes again. What are Treasury's options for getting them the actual cash? Maybe the Treasury will use the unused balance of TARP funds to issue refund checks to the homebuilders. How Zen.

Thinking a great deal about Tanta today. If I remember correctly her favorite book was The Sound and The Fury. I was often afraid to post as her writng was so imposing that my ididot babblings signified nothing. She was the most brilliant person I believed I ever read.

Avl Dao wrote:

speaking of the lobby-spawned tax decision at the heart of this thread, Im guessing it will really turn out not to be $ millions in actual cash refunds 2 major homebuilders in the amounts cited, but instead will be a reduction a 'credit' in the taxes paid once those homebuilders are required to pay taxes again.

According to Gretchen's article, they can write off 2008 and 2009 losses against profits back to 2004, so I assume they will get a sizable check from the IRS:

But tucked inside the law was another prize: a tax break that lets big companies offset losses incurred in 2008 and 2009 against profits booked as far back as 2004. The tax cuts will generate corporate refunds or relief worth about $33 billion, according to an administration estimate.

Nytol, There's always tomorrow.

I believe you are correct, but it could have been designed differently, or with some kind of limits. Homebuilders are the extreme example of companies that were earning windfall profits five years ago, largely by doing things that they shouldn't be encouraged to do any more, and are now suffering losses big enough to wipe out the taxes they paid in the insanely good times.

"Barfly, why do you think those 5 are going to lead us in a different direction than the one they've been pulling us in for the last 12 months or so? "

I said I think we're going to have a different regulatory regime than the one that contributed to the crash. They've been working on it for the last twelve months or so. I can't believe that after all the televised hearings that nothing will change. But something tells me we're talking past each other here. Maybe I misread your earlier comment.

i mean, it may take a little while to get really pissed off about this, but this is the kind if legislation we should get really pissed off about. the government is taking money from you at gunpoint and giving it to a group of incompetent corporate pigs. doesn't that piss you off?

i should probably sign off before i attract the sound of jack boots goose stepping up my drive.

Slumdog wrote:

A sq meter would be $32 million.

And WE complain about the pergraniteel in the McMansions.

It is just the Democrats turn to pig at the cookie jar. They got a big appetite going.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

It is just the Democrats turn to pig at the cookie jar. They got a big appetite going.

Both parties should adopt a pig as their new mascot.
~splat

If I scrape a 100k up to give to a politico, can
I have a million back?

And, in addition to the 3 city commissioners from Miami Dade
there is now one in Orlando. Relative peanuts involved.

You know, if you sell your soul you may as well get a
lot for it.

"obama is now america's mussolini"

I would say Obama is probably America's Hermann Muller. I don't think it's clear who will be America's Mussolini, but the odds that we will have one in the next ten years seem to be getting very high. If I had to bet, I would say Glenn Beck is the best fit currently on the scene.

JimPortlandOR - Yeah, that would not be a bad follow-up, actually...

barfly wrote:

But something tells me we're talking past each other here.

Maybe. The direction that this group of 5, and their counterparts in the other political party, and most private parties, have been pulling in for the last 12 months is to do everything possible to keep asset prices as high as possible, with a special focus on home prices. I see no changes in direction, and no prospects for a change in direction, and certainly none from this group of 5 powerful people.

How does that compare to what you see?

EE, time to up, and donate a PO chart of cantarell

No one even cares enough anymore to bother documenting your contradictions. Yawn.

energyecon wrote:

Found the article for the current edition of Energy Policy by Aleklett et. al., The Peak of the Oil Age - analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008

I need to sit down with some reservoir engineers that I know, the depletion rate analysis used in this paper appears absolutely damning with respect to the IEA reference case production forecast...

...and if I could afford a meter of gold, I'd certainly go get one as for this moment in time, there's a retreat to safety and someone has anointed that barbarous pile of nothing as "the store of value", and as more and more believe it, the credibility of the BS governments who claimed it to be worthless has foundationally eroded.

So, one should not think of what it's worth and how to get it? Or should we instead own a Warhol painting and enjoy it on the wall instead? It's the same thing, a fleeing of the dishonest governmental leadership.

Tragedy on aisle 5.

If I were a profitable company, I'd be looking to buy a homebuilder now, just so I could milk the tax credits to cover my profits for a few years. Screw building any homes. Fire everybody.

I'm serious -- this shores up their stock price, but does nothing to encourage them to build -- because there's no way they can be profitable for a a long time -- at least not profitable enough to grab all the cash that's been put on the table. Expect buyouts.

The mirror appointed him as commentatorus superiorus.
A little Windex will right things, as soon as the trigger is pulled.

Damn, halloween was last week - Cantarell is a horrorshow - year over year decline at the start of 2009 was 38%...

what has happened to Crispy&Cole, Jas Jain, currently smokin canabais,etc....

barfly wrote:

a new regulatory framework that will be focused on preventing the abuses that led to the crash in the first place.

Call me cynical, barfly, but what I see is a consensus amongst a group of rentiers to intervene when asset prices are falling, and stand back when they are rising. I don't think good (balanced) regulation is their goal - higher asset prices is what makes them rich, and that's what they are really orchestrating.

Avl Dao wrote:

Hasn't 'The Kicking of the Can Down the Road been seemingly effective enough that they can gracefully age into senility before the flabby roosters come back to the roost?

Yes, I think they can kick the can far enough to claim victory. Most people don't have long enough horizons to realize what's going on.

Slumdog, I want to remind you that Sarah Palin's book will be out on Tuesday. Bet your waiting on pins and needles. Ha,ha,ha, ha.
And don't forget what Shedlock's solution to all this that we're discussing tonite. SOUND MONEY. Never, just never does he talk negative about outsourcing, insourcing, or illegals, tho many of his readers do, the ones born, bred, and living in the US. Good for them!

Right, and if you concentrate the earnings power, channel all increases to the top, and keep inflating assets, you achieve your basic objective - have not only a lock on cash flow, but also, gather up all the land, capital and anything else of value and confiscate it, keeping it safe from the stupid sheeple masses. It's a disgusting thing we are witnessing, but we are powerless. Our votes mean nothing, our pleadings with congresscritters, worthless. We have no recourse. We will succumb. Until the day when we cant take it anymore and the pitchforks are taken up.

I know...i'm sayin ! kick down a few worthless greenbacks for a tile of cantarells decline!

i'm givin you 36 hours notice! by monday morning ...i'm doin it!

Think of what we've achieved at the end of this...I walk through the city of SF today...clueless one and all. They go about blissfully as if there is no crisis, was no crisis, never will be one for them. They are insulated, carefree, superior. And meanwhile, the country bleeds all over, with them sensing none of it. The news? Narry a word of the spreading pain. Recovery is the meme..but for whom? And what have they recovered, as they sell their souls for it?

Lennar doesn't advertise in Brevard County anymore.

It's last set of ads were color on black. Who would pick that?

I fail to see why any house at all should be built for a few
years, except somebody's dream house, paid for nearly
or all in cash.

How many houses are just too old and get torn down,
or burn down or whatever in a year?

Nova wrote:

Most of the real poor areas in DC consider it a major victory in improving the local standard of living when they get a major grocery chain to open a store in their area.

Not just DC, perhaps. A couple of months back the Voice of San Diego site was talking about a poor neighbourhood there, and the attempts they were making to get a chain store to set up. (Or any store with reasonable fresh produce and bulk food departments, in fact.)

I think this is something that the Urban Ambience crowd miss. Their concept of Just-in-Time small-unit purchasing from neighbourhood stores is fine for high density, HIGH INCOME locations. Manhattan being the obvious poster child.

Once you start talking about LOW income locations, no matter what density, having ONLY small retailers is impacting people's available living standards. I remember watching a TV show about a single-parent pensioner in a high-rise apartment block here in Australia. Initially her purchasing habits made no sense to me at all, until I started to realise she simply couldn't GET the items I would automatically use as budget-stretchers without a lot of effort.

IIRC, for her the nearest supermarket was two bus rides and 60 minutes away . . .

GDD9000:

Really? Here is upstate NY, lots of people are hurting. Even CA has 12% unemployment. Is all CA like this? How?

I've said this before, but I think the jobless and homeless drop off
of their former friends radar screens. I mean, they have no money,
so they can't go out any more unless someone else pays. So that
12% isn't interacting with their former friends to a great extent and
they are prolly somewhat ashamed etc, etc.

Canterells is a homebuilder? Never heard of them.

Nuke wrote:

Is all CA like this? How?

He said SF, it isn't remotely like the rest of CA.

Not joking; never heard of it.

My omniscience is overrated.

Slumdog (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 11/14/2009 - 8:22 pm

Dawg, I don't give a hoot what "people" think. My life is just fine, and the trade last week? Profitable. And the biz receipts? Enviable, solid, repeating. And the prospects? We're beating the bushes and raising the birds. How about your life?

seems to me slumdog...you been ridin kinda high in the saddle lately

be careful..pride comes before a fall...

we all get to learn that lesson sooner or later...sometimes more than once...or twice

sdtfs wrote:

He said SF, it isn't remotely like the rest of CA

My friends in So Cal (Orange County) tell me the same thing: there's no visible changes in people's daily lives.

from upthread
"obama as mussolini" ha ,yeah, right,

more like obama as herbert hoover...actually i think the parallel is remarkable

Is Slumdog== Guadia Ray? Wow, he's gotten more loquacious then.

gaudia ray! Oh that makes me

pretty much the same chart calls

If I were a profitable company, I'd be looking to buy a homebuilder now, just so I could milk the tax credits to cover my profits for a few years.

Good thought, except that the IRS considers a change of ownership to invalidate the right to harvest past tax credits in a carry-over scenario. Lookup up "section 382" of the tax code. In fact, one major (Beazer) majorly "screwed the pooch" by allowing a hedge fund or some other large institutional investor to gain more than 5% control of the company, forfeiting their right to collect this windfall.

Of course, another $6 million in bribes might just change the law ...

Markar...good point...somehow , this turn of the screw, i dont think its gonna work out like that