CR, what timing would you expect for the potential "upside surprise" from accelerating New Home Sales? In other words, how long do you expect the post-homebuyer taxcredit slump to last?
Does this mean that pretty soon I won't be competing w/ all the idiot marginal FTHB out there?
It really sucks being an extremely well qualifying 20%+ high credit score FTHB as prices are being driven up by all the marginal idiots out there and I can't compete w/ them.
Wisdom Speaker, I expect some pickup in activity with the tax credit extension and expansion (although the interest should be lower). And then another slump after the credit ends. I haven't really thought about how long the slump will last - probably several months or a year - it really depends on much demand was pulled forward and house prices.
It suddenly occurred to me this is probably not the blog to visit when I need cheering up. On the flip side of that coin; it might help me hit rock bottom.
I convinced my wife to hold off buying a house 'til at least Spring, so I am hoping the trend continues...along with my job.
The local paper quoted a RE broker saying, basically, if you're sure of your employment prospects, now's still a great time to buy. My answer to that is, dig me up a few people like that, willya?
New mortgage filings "plunge" (even with the $8000 time extension)...put simply...and I re-iterate...only one in ten persons are now credit-worthy...and the government mortgage boost program has pretty much shot its wad as far as reaching that little ten percent of qualifiers.
On another note, it was interesting that yesterday (?) there was a discussion here about how much gold the US govt. has & where, and today there's a news story on CNNMoney.com about how much gold the US is sitting on in Ft. Knox. Coincidence? Hmmm.
Thinking about housing demand in light of something I looked at overnight:
Of the 1625 Value Line stocks, only 432 have positive changes in "as-reported" '% EPS 12-month Change Latest Quarter" as of the current database (a few minutes ago). The rest show earnings declines. And of course actual earnings are doing worse because the one-time items inevitably cut into actual EPS.
The S&P 500 has a trailing P/E (based on actual EPS) of about 130. That means the earnings yield is about 0.0075, less than 1%! But the dividend yield is still just under 2%.
This means there are a lot of corporations, even profitable ones, whose earnings are insufficient to meet their dividend payments.
Ignoring the nearly half of the database which pays NO DIVIDENDS WHATSOEVER, it is still true:
There are fully 217 (out of 1625) companies - 13% of the database - more than 1-in-8 companies - whose **dividend payout exceeds even their "operating" earnings! **
Only about 1/4 of the database has dividend payouts >0 but less than half of "operating" earnings.
I'm still trying to find where in the Value Line world they deal with real, GAAP earnings. The picture is certainly worse there.
It seems to me that the cash flow crunch is not abating, and two thoughts that leaps to mind are "cut jobs further" and "cut complexity in cost centers". Expensive, hard-to-administer benefits are likely to change. Hiring doesn't appear to be much of an option.
And consumers facing job-cut risks and radical changes in their benefits and cash flow are less likely to run out and buy houses, which generally require a stable outlook for at least a 5-year timeframe...
Remember that the housing demand is heavily skewed to investors as well as first-time credit seekers. If price/rent ratios continue to tilt in favor of rents (prices having stabilized due to Moolah-for-Mansions, with rents still falling), then investors will pull back. So the organic demand is going to face a lot of pressure yet.
Thank you. That's what I thought, but figured I should verify that I wasn't off-base. I wonder if there's a reliable percentage between submissions and approvals; anecdotally I keep hearing about deals in my area falling apart due to credit issues.
We made an offer and it didn't work out. I did a look around the area on ZipReality. Rural America, at least outside of the NO. VA. area looks to be really screwed. When you have your double wide on 5 acres up for sale for 250K and land is being dumped by developers all around you...well, it's only a matter of time before the big screen is getting loaded into your F-150
And consumers facing job-cut risks and radical changes in their benefits and cash flow are less likely to run out and buy houses, which generally require a stable outlook for at least a 5-year timeframe...
Yeah, but these are Americans you're talking about, where hopium springs eternal. We shall see.
It suddenly occurred to me this is probably not the blog to visit when I need cheering up. On the flip side of that coin; it might help me hit rock bottom.
There is a support group. The first step is acknowledging that the economy has a problem. Somewhere around step 6 is acknowledging that you are powerless to do anything about it. There's also some "higher power" stuff. Not sure if that means politicians, lobbyists, donors, or someone else.
nova - Don't give up. We made 6 offers on places before our current was accepted. You have to stay true to your inner bargainhunter and don't compromise. (I can bet your area is tough tho, competing with all those govt. jobholders)
per acre costs of rural land in VA is absurd. typically 20K per acre. If it has a four trees fallen down with a tarp over it, that's an extra 100K right there--"rustic cabin in verdant grove"...
if you're sure of your employment prospects, now's still a great time to buy. My answer to that is, dig me up a few people like that, willya?
Let's see:
Federal Government? With the current deficit burn rate, even with a recovery costs are going to have to be cut or revenues increased by 20-25%. I'd say only the IRS and FDIC employees have real job security right now.
State and Local Government? Deficits haven't abated and the one-time tricks last year didn't do the job. Even prison guards are looking at job and pay cuts. Bwahahahahaha.
Service sector? Bwahahahaha. No job security for the most part, even for lawyers, these days!
Industrial? Maybe, especially if you can take advantage of the low dollar. But of course the dollar's range has been something like 71-95 (DXY) over the las year... you gonna bet on it staying low? When the rest of the world's fiscal problems are also going from bad to worse?
Now, if you manufacture pitchforks, torches, toilet paper or glass bottles (for Molotov cocktails)... might be some growth for you...
After finishing the 2009 fiscal year with a $9 million deficit, Columbia City Council members approved $150,000 in taxpayer money for an efficiency study - and have told the city's interim city manager to find the money to pay for it.
The city will pay for the study in part by selling a small piece of land on Huger Street to VistaBank, a Columbia bank that formed in 2007, for $100,000. The source for the remaining $50,000 "will be determined."
Why on god's green earth would anyone want to buy a home?. Why not just send that down payment to me instead.....or just put it in a pile and burn it...same end result for you in any case.
Going on a kayak trip on the Colorado River (put in below Hoover Dam) on the weekend, and it allows me to do quite the drive-by of Las Vegas-adjacent.
Pavlovegas is different, because it's not only a disaster financially, but also from a ecological standpoint, with dwindling water resources and the invasion of the Quagga mussels, which are breeding like underwater swingers, and are threatening to take down the hydroelectric capabilities for sin city, by gumming up the works. It's entirely the wrong sort of reinforcement.
The side-walls behind Hoover Dam are without water & picket-fence white, like a giant curtain on either side of the river, the lowest levels have been in an awful long time, and Lake Mead? There are boat-launching ramps that are a mile from actual water.
On a happier note, the bird life on the other side of Hoover Dam is nothing short of amazing, and perhaps we'll see as many as a dozen desert bighorn sheep practically running down cliffs, on occasion. About 20 hot springs await us, along the river, up canyon...
some investor guy
ive always known that there was nothing i could do about anything even when i called one of my representives(he didnt answer so i deleted him) but i can bitch,oh can i bitch and sometimes i get answers. lot better than hitting google search box google tried but i think they are really happy that i found cr.
Living in South Carolina is like a comedy every single day!
nothing beats the "3 Hebrew Boys" ponzi scheme. seriously, i think that each and every victim deserved to lose their money, given the promises made by those guys.
Oh goodie, a global command economy. We really are flying the instruments and not the airplane. Hu's North American regional director was just on the idiot box claiming he's saved a million jobs. I'm sorry but where is the critical fourth estate covering that whopper? Obam has gotten everything he's wanted concerning the economy. What are the results? 10.2% U-3 when his "million jobs saved" would put us at 8.6% per CR's chart. And now with the domestic crises well in hand he's off to Asia to prevent a trade war while "protecting" the domestic economy from predation.
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Three South Carolina men accused of bilking investors out of millions made anyone with ties to law enforcement or attorneys leave their seminars, and threatened investors with $1 million in fines if they told anyone about the massive returns they were making, a former bookkeeper testified Tuesday.
"If you are affiliated with any legal entities ... would you please leave?" Somera Samuels said one of her bosses, Timothy McQueen, said at seminars he hosted with his two business partners.
The trio called themselves the "3 Hebrew Boys" after the biblical tale of brothers who survived an inferno because of their faith. They are on trial in federal court on nearly 60 federal charges, including mail fraud and money laundering, and face decades in prison and millions in fines if convicted.
Prosecutors say McQueen, Joseph Brunson and Tony Pough preyed on debt-plagued investors, luring church congregants and even U.S. soldiers serving overseas to invest a total of more than $80 million with their group. They promised daily returns up to 500 percent.
We will be buying in the Spring after getting my wife to defer since July, 2007..
"Housing will reach a bottom by March 2010, with lower- priced properties recovering value more quickly than expensive homes, First American CoreLogic said last month."
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration's pay czar said on Thursday his compensation rulings will allow General Motors Co and Chrysler Group to retain talent but is willing to consider "lateral" offers to hire new executives.
Kenneth Feinberg, the U.S. Treasury's special master for executive pay at seven companies with massive taxpayer bailouts, told a forum sponsored by Bloomberg that the auto industry largely accepted his pay rulings without appeals.
"If General Motors or any other company wants to bring someone in laterally -- laterally -- and competitive pay packages require that lateral hires get certain competitive pay, what have you, we're perfectly willing to examine that," Feinberg said.
Lots of bighorn wandering around just pass hwy 40 as you get into the narrows before you hit lake havasu...beautiful country...and rumors of gold around there
I would love to see some hard data on this claim. Clearly, the govi is the new sub-prime lender offering no money down loans with FHA and the tax credit. We also hear/read of many savers/investors buying houses for cash.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 9:54 am
Hu's North American regional director was just on the idiot box claiming he's saved a million jobs. I'm sorry but where is the critical fourth estate covering that whopper? Obam has gotten everything he's wanted concerning the economy. What are the results? 10.2% U-3 when his "million jobs saved" would put us at 8.6% per CR's chart.
2009: Administration promises "green jobs"
2013: Administration promises Soylent green jobs
ms
why would anyone want to buy a home? well if you want to have pets,if you smoke,if you have kids if you want to paint your house carolina blue in ga, lots of reasons
Sorry but those are not compelling enough reasons to torch a growing % of it's perceived value going forward. Renting is about the only sane option at this point. If I had an unoccupied rental I would seriously consider burning it to the ground on the news (last week) the FHA is now in somewhat direct competition with me. Insurance concerns be damned.......
RD said; "Obam has gotten everything he's wanted concerning the economy."
Wow, that's so not true--but it was true for Bush the first 6 years. O might turn out to be a screw up--but Bush is confirmed to be at the head of that class. Why won't some on this board blame the author, why go after the new editor--his version hasn't been published yet? Are you wishing Bush still president--and Paulson/Cheney/Rumsfeld pulling the strings?
Ah...newsflash! yes it has...it's not only along the same lines it's worse when you factor in the "change" BS. The only difference is the republicans tell you that they are going to screw you and democrats say they won't. End result is still the same.
I finalized my land purchase 11 days ago but my mother passed away and now I have ins and estate money I need to shelter.
The problem is there is zilch, zero, nada out there at a reasonable price. Every barely qualifying yahoo is bidding 25 to 40k over the suspected appraisal price. They do this so they get to the top of the list then let the appraisal and the lending bank drive it back down. The good news is that the banks are now asking that the potential buyers pay the difference between the appraisal and offer out of pocket or rolled into the financing somehow. Of course the buyers then can't come up with the extra so it falls out. Wash rinse repeat.
The best is when some agents tell their buyers to put in offers on 3 or more short sales at the same time then let the appraisals wash them them out until they get "the deal". It's like going to Vegas and putting 1k down on red on every hot table until one comes in. It's insane. They are blowing 1ok and up just to get a 8k credit.
At least that is what is happening around any area I'm interested in in Sacramento.
My favorite is Gold Strike Canyon, which has about a dozen hot springs, and a series of 3 fixed ropes you have to climb to get over large boulders, to get up to the ne plus ultra, a 107 degree-10 foot deep model.
Let's not slam the guy too hard......he has some well-thought out scribes. I think the lack of humility is what the issue is here. People are too quick to use the ignore button here...I never use it. Lest I think that I know it all....I don't and neither does anyone else FTM.
mel
i seriously thought of making W stay and MAKE HIM FIX THIS MESS,but i realize that it wasnt just him that got us in this mess,it was clinton,bush41 and ronnie,they let it happen, and jmo. obama is just continuing the regime. he just part of the rbcbo and hes the o he couldve but he didnt. he minds his handlers.
Articles like this just decimate that whole "hope" thingy I used to have.
Especially when some is threatening US govt.
From AP - Feinberg changed his mind after American International Group Inc. CEO Robert Benmosche was threatening to leave...
The last outdoors thing I did was take a canoe trip through Congaree National Park a few weekends ago.
Was exciting having a snake drop into our canoe though!
NO hot springs; I assure you.
apologies if this was already posted as I got sidetracked.
NEW YORK – Americans spent about the same amount in October as in August and September, according to figures released Thursday by a key data service, and they may be settling into new low-spending habits.
Including everything from toys to food, but not cars or gasoline, U.S. retail sales rose slightly in October — 1.5 percent — from a year earlier even as consumers grappled with rising unemployment and tight credit.
Compared with the month before, however, sales fell 2.3 percent in October, the biggest month-to-month decline since December 2008.
Thursday's figures from SpendingPulse, a service of MasterCard Advisors, are an estimate of spending in all forms including cash and offer fresh evidence that the holiday shopping season may be challenging for retailers.
credit score numbers-just ran numbers for southeast dealers-last 7 days average credit score was fica-573 for auto shoppers...
with 49% of those below 550.....
The thing about King George II that lingers on, is all the bad stuff he allowed in the first place, is very well entrenched now, and you know how people like to cling onto their jobs in Big Gov?
So there is a good chance repos will follow suit. Just like FHA underwater loans for recycled foreclosures for tomorrow. Banks will need more short money just like FHA will. Sounds like we are moving ahead to me? Got Debt?
Of course. Both were started under Bush. I'd really rather not get into an off-topic pissing match about the war(s). It's shit, and it's largely inherited. And I've been against it since it was first discussed in 2002. They can't end soon enough IMO.
Help! Would someone translate this for me because I honestly don't get it. Is my brain fried or are we talking in circles? This is about FDIC, prepayments of fees for 3 years from banks, not being able to use the funds but it means liquidity to the DIF? uh? I'm missing something?
Likewise, the FDIC would not be able to use the money to bring up the balance of the insurance fund that safeguards bank deposits, but it would have operating liquidity.
Gmac is the new subprime lender...the secondary lenders are history.....makes you wonder how much more the treasury will give them....its an outrage and I make my living off it...
I hate debtpushers..they are worse than drugpushers because they hang out in the swank part of town where sheeple get entranced by all the stuff they want....
49% of those below 550,
So there is a good chance repos will follow suit. Just like FHA underwater loans for recycled foreclosures for tomorrow. Banks will need more short money just like FHA will. Sounds like we are moving ahead to me? Got Debt?
That's my plan. Lots of those C4C vehicles will be flooding the wholesale channel in the spring crushing new car sales as an unintended consequence. Hoocoodanode?
From the article:
"BNET previously noted that some regard the company as part of a prophecy in the Book of Revelation (because the HealthLink chip carries an RFID number that can be used as both money and proof of ID) or as part of President Obama’s secret Nazi plan to enslave America."
Sounds like I can rely on BNET as a really reliable source of news and analysis.
i know the area I am in, Shenandoah Valley, is still smoking the HPA crackpipe. There is a house around the corner from me, 1 acre, 3 bed, old farmhouse type colonial on main st the price has just been reduced 75,000 from 299k to 224k. Still AT LEAST 125k overpriced in my opinion, perhaps even 150k overpriced.
The semi-rural areas came late to the run-up but are clinging very very hard to the dream. It was going to lift the more rural areas out of that pesky poverty level into the land of budget suprlus and pork!! A pig for every pot!!
nanoo
lets see now they can do the prepayments get them from banks(yeah guess whose paying fees)but cant use them.
omg and we wonder why we are such a mess!
by law, the DIF is supposed to remain within certain limits, and if the balance gets too high, assessments decrease. what the article is saying is that the three years of prepayments are not to be booked all at once to the DIF; however, FDIC will have access to the funds (liquidity), accounted over the three years. makes more sense in conjunction with the preceding paragraph in the article, which describes how the assessments are to be expensed by the the banks.
UBS Joins Bofa in Offering Brazil Algorithmic Trading (Update2)
By Alexander Ragir
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank, joins Bank of America Corp. in offering algorithmic trading for shares on the Sao Paulo stock exchange as global brokerages compete for market share in the world’s best-performing bourse.
International algorithmic trading will allow investors to trade using algorithms though UBS without going through a brokerage, the Zurich-based bank said in a press release. UBS began so-called direct market access in Brazil on July 2008, allowing stock traders to complete orders anonymously without going through a brokerage.
“Algo trading is going to be done by more sophisticated institutional investors or hedge fund that will go through the big banks,” said Tony Volpon, Latin American strategist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “It’s a different trading strategy and really is bringing a new type of client to the market.”
Rob and Ben- it will work well, I'll stay in the loop about charge offs at some lenders I know to let you know when those repos start flooding in...
Thanks. I'm serious. I expect a wicked arbitrage opportunity especially for the nicer imports. I said "this spring" because I just guessed C4C plus 6 months and factored in seasonality for car sales. It's good to have people with access to the real data. How the lenders handle these charge offs will be interesting. As you know this could trigger a liquidity crisis as they live and die on cash flow.
I dont understand gaby, everything except thepainting i do or have done and have always rented. And honestly figuring in the times the kids markered the walls, they paint is sorta covered too!
Now being able to look around and say this is mine, well, i can see it, and some really really want that, but if you own something, doesnt it own you too? How many people who are looking for a job, get offered a miracle lifeline job, but have to relocate but cant because they are owners? Sounds kind of like a choke chain and internal spike collar to me. ewwww and a shudder.
Thank you Basel, I got really, really confused but hey, most people here realize this is a perpetual state with this nobody, the foolish practitioner of old Econ. 101. I got told long ago that if you don't understand a game, you shouldn't play it. I still don't understand the game and now life is approaching its winter season.
I'm serious too...I will let you know if the bump in repos you and I are expecting comes up in spring or summer....I bought 2 repos before direct from the lender before they go to auction.......both worked out great...
Yeah, nova sorry bout that.
I'm looking in nova too, unfortunately. Fauquier Co. . . . and it sucks right now. I really think the banks are holding a lot of inventory. I noticed at the beginning of Oct. the inventory where I am looking and in my price range suddenly dropped by 10-15% (right at the beginning of the month). From what I remember they were all SS. I've seen a few of them come back online as foreclosures. Every single place I have looked at is abandoned.
Now I'm in a bind. I recently found out some good new that I might be moving out of the area for several years (YIPEEE!!!), unfortunately my landlady is being manipulated (the only thing I can think of). I pay my rent on time every month, no issues and yet she will not be renewing the lease. She took out a mortgage on the place we are in to pay for another rental property. Those renters didn't pay rent for a year and owe her 12k! Yet she decides to kick out the renters who pay her on time.
Kicking out someone who pays on time, is quite and doesn't bother anyone in this eCONomy . . . is nuts. She needs the "space" . . . yeah right the other renter in this house acts like he owns the place and has been manipulating her over the past 3 months to kick us out.
It sucks b/c I will prob. be moving in less than 6 months. So I've now got to find a rental for 3 people for less than six months and then move again all b/c some jack@#$ manipulating SOB doesn't like me.
Any ideas on how to tell someone they are being manipulated and taken for a ride. It's bad enough that I wouldn't be surprised if this other renter has written himself into the will!
Any ideas on how to tell someone they are being manipulated and taken for a ride.
No. You might as well argue with a houseplant. There are so many accidental landlords out there that you should be able to arrange something short-term that puts money in someone's pocket. Winter, I've been told, is never a popular time for rentals to go off-market.
ac
you got a point there about insurance and the pharms but didnt W do a deal with pharnms on medicare?the drug thingie? maybe they are happy (doubt that,but....)
UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank, joins Bank of America Corp. in offering algorithmic trading for shares on the Sao Paulo stock exchange as global brokerages compete for market share in the world’s best-performing bourse.
There was a time when it was a big deal when stock markets went up 10% in a year.
Now in the global superbubble 10% is a typical week for emerging markets.
My wife and I tell ourselves "we won't compete with them". We like our cash, thank you very much, and we won't trade it for an asset until the fundamentals pencil out. The debt deflation is still an underreported phenomenon. In my industry, cash-rich companies like mine are booking record-breaking quarters, and the anecdotes we're hearing is our competitors who rely upon credit to finance any aspect of their opex structure are gasping for air (some believe that if 2010-2011 turns out as choppy and then bad as suspected, we'll see heavy consolidation in our industry, and I'm licking my chops at the quality of employees we could pick up in that environment). We are already booking business for next quarter, and the sales pipeline keeps getting filled for opportunities well into 2H2010. This isn't a function of having cash as much as how we got it in the first place, so when looking for investments in this environment I try to draw that same distinction. Most real estate at the moment is an extremely poor investment by that measure.
Despite all the inflation fears that are running about, I remain skeptical; wage inflation is a remote possibility at this point, and I don't see conforming paper mortgage rates rising more than 500 bps anytime within the next 24-30 months. I am more inclined to argue inflation showing up in currency devaluation, and imports getting expensive in USD terms, while assets continue to slowly deflate from debt reconciliation unevenly unwinding in a market heavy with government interference.
At the same time the University of South Carolina Moore School of Business was announcing to the world it had obtained $42.4 million in matching dollars for its gift from Darla Moore and would soon be moving from its home in the heart of campus to a new $90 million building in Innovista, tensions within the building were so bad the school had to conduct an internal survey of faculty and staff to assess the scope of the problem.
/snip
The result? Nearly half of the faculty and staff surveyed said they believe the school’s working environment is a negative one, with the greatest number of complaints targeting the alleged “alienating and arrogant” management style of Dean Hildy Teegen and Deputy Dean Scott Koerwer. Overall, 57 responses were generally negative, 46 generally positive and 14 generally neutral
however, FDIC will have access to the funds (liquidity)
.......they're requiring "donations" that aren't due and payable yet. Kinda like California kicking up the withholding rate on State income taxes, though they are not owed - just a way for the State to use money that isn't theirs. When I was 10yo, I "confiscated" $10 from my Mom's purse.........kinda like that........except I got an big-time ass-whoopin'......
"At least thousands of people don't die when we plan to squander billions of dollars. "
No I'm guessing it will be in the tens of thousands right here on our own soil....spread out over about 5 years or so. Hunger and starvation is a bit slower than dropping bombs on sand. Here's a great solution to Afghanistan.....just nuke it...in fact just nuke the whole middle east. That may sound harsh but at least you know what you're dealing with...yes people would die however you're just speeding up the inevitable IMO. Not that I am advocating wholesale violence but it sure would make the whole thing easier than the slow drip of what we have now. It's bound to happen in any case on a smaller scale...some nut-job in power will do it.
you guys better not get me started on the so-called health care reform. I'd take up the entire bandwidth of the internet in my rant. gabyjan: Part D was supposed to cover Rx meds for seniors. In your neck of the woods a large insurer cooked that but good. They were told last year to stop taking anymore subscribers. Part D was also 'privatized'.
The reason is they sold 'supplemental' insurance which included part D on simplicity to hoards of the unsuspecting. In an investigation after multiple complaints. It was found that they
*overcharged on premiums
*overcharged the government
*denied benefits without cause
*would not pay for critical Rx's to seniors (like generic heart medications, etc.).
This is what operating health care insurance for profit is about, its metering of care without a moral or ethical backbone.
ac
you got a point there about insurance and the pharms but didnt W do a deal with pharnms on medicare?the drug thingie? maybe they are happy (doubt that,but....)
Yeah... the economic argument for health care reform makes sense to me:
We spend twice as much on health care and get what other countries get for half the cost.
The problem is that tells me that real health care reform entails wiping half the health care industry out of existence.
Yet most people supporting health care reform seem to think it means more health care to go around, and the health care industry isn't complaint about being downsized by 50%.
Just noticed an interesting point in the WalMart results for 3Q:
Chief Executive Officer Mike Duke cited increased productivity and improved inventory management for the better- than-forecast result. Castro-Wright said inventory in its U.S. Walmart stores was down 6.2 percent -- or the equivalent of reducing inventory by $1.8 billion in its stores and distribution centers in the last 12 months.
Now that's streamlining and efficiency, not panic. If everyone else is doing similarly, then we're not going to see much of an inventory snap-back.
Yah, like when my son confiscated my 1964 silver dollar from my jewelry box to contribute to the purchase of a bamboo "staff for streetfighters" aka a dumb old bamboo stick.
I did not beat him, but he has been doing some very consistent cleaning chores around the house.
Aren't the demographics going to make the majority on "government funded" health care anyway?
Couldn't be that TPTB spent all the money for that too; could it?
Yah, like when my son confiscated my 1964 silver dollar from my jewelry box to contribute to the purchase of a bamboo "staff for streetfighters" aka a dumb old bamboo stick.
I did not beat him, but he has been doing some very consistent cleaning chores around the house.
I did that when I was a kid -- I "confiscated" a bunch of silver dollars to order pizzas which I believed were owed to me because I was left alone at the house.
My sisters still give me a hard time about that saying I squandered their inheritance and all.
I bought 2 repos before direct from the lender before they go to auction.......both worked out great...
That's the way to do it. I was shocked when I first learned of the prices at which dealers traded their inventory. And the markup just getting the Lexus off the Honda lot onto the Lexus lot!
And unlike the used house market there's no gaming by the government whether it be price or inventory.
Actually, what I read of the bill (still reading and it will get watered down some more)...it won't. The biggest gap group now is middle class or whats left of it. It may provide a little provisional relief to small business. I'm not encouraged.
HR676 was written in 2007 with broad bipartisan support. Merely streamlining billing would save ~$300bl/ANNUALLY. Do you know what a massive headache billing is-it means there are more billing agents in hospitals (and likely physicians offices) than hands on providers of care. Its insane. Professionals spend WAY too much time and effort trying to work around insurance, what drug they will pay for or not, what is in the interest of the patient vs what insurance will allow, etc.
Health Care reform isn't in either form by either party.
Yah, like when my son confiscated my 1964 silver dollar from my jewelry box to contribute to the purchase of a bamboo "staff for streetfighters" aka a dumb old bamboo stick.
I did not beat him, but he has been doing some very consistent cleaning chores around the house.
Lol I had the same thing happen, except my 11 year old was helping herself to my 90% silver Quarters and Dimes. I did not notice until I was doing a little inventory of the treasure and noticed I was light at least 20 plus Quarters and Dimes. I blame myself really for being careless, needless to say my yard is spotless from all the raking she had to do for punishment. I hate to use the term stealing as she thought it was just loose change...non the less....I was pissed.
But in the end the yard looks great. Now to find my loot!!!!!!!!!! Arrr!
Well, to be fair, Hootie and the Blowfish always did have a mellow, country-ish sound. His new album is doing quite weill .. but calling him a best "new artist" is clearly a bit of a stretch, IMO.
The coin almost made a return in 1964, when Congress approved the mintage of 45 million new silver dollars to fulfill the needs of the booming casino industry in Nevada. The decision was controversial because of a critical silver shortage in 1965, which led to widespread hoarding of silver coinage. In response to the shortage, Congress passed the Coinage Act of 1965, which authorized the removal of silver content from circulating coinage (except for the Kennedy half dollar) minted after December 31, 1964. But under pressure from some members of Congress from the Western states, President Lyndon B. Johnson issued an order on May 15, 1965 to resume production of the Peace Dollar. (It was dated 1964 to allow silver to be included. During 1965 all U.S. coins were minted with the previous year's date, the '65 issues not being produced until early the following year.) 316,076 Peace Dollars were struck at the Denver mint that month, before Congress overrode the Presidential order and demanded that production cease. All the coins produced to that point were ordered to be melted. Although rumors persist that some examples still survive, owning them is illegal, making it unlikely that anyone who does own one will ever come forth publicly.
Lol I had the same thing happen, except my 11 year old was helping herself to my 90% silver Quarters and Dimes. I did not notice until I was doing a little inventory of the treasure and noticed I was light at least 20 plus Quarters and Dimes.
A gold double eagle is technically legal tender isn't it?
I wonder if anybody's kid has used one of those $20 dollar coins they've found recently...
........want cheaper healthcare? How about reducing nurses wages to $3. per day (vs. the typical $200-300 per shift), MDs pay decreasing to $50 per shift................other countries' solutions could be ours too........it'll happen whether we like it or not.
inventory in its U.S. Walmart stores was down 6.2 percent -- or the equivalent of reducing inventory by $1.8 billion in its stores and distribution centers in the last 12 months.
Now that's streamlining and efficiency, not panic. If everyone else is doing similarly, then we're not going to see much of an inventory snap-back.
Streamlining and efficiency? No, that's a bet on deflation and response to weakened consumer demand and long supply chain disruptions short term cost cutting and shorter term stock propping. See? It could be any number of things but I do know that 6.2% is a large y-o-y change. Remember half of Walmart is now food and that is very resistant to inventory change so there must have been some pretty major stock adjustments in non-food consumer goods. I'm sure Walmart slaps the efficiency label on this but I find that misleadingly simplistic.
Our local tv "news" reported, gasp, choke, that people were actually not
paying their mortgages on PURPOSE, and living there free for up to 3 years.
Where have they been for the last 3 years? We should start calling
the the "Olds". this is a MIAMI tv station, not the national news. I listened
to the teaser, sighed and turned off the TV.
Streamlining and efficiency? No, that's a bet on deflation and response to weakened consumer demand and long supply chain disruptions short term cost cutting and shorter term stock propping.
Point taken. Would you agree that this change is likely to remain substantially in force, pending a major upturn in consumer spending, which is really what I was hamfistedly attempting to say?
Absent high demand, reduced inventory has to be a giant win for WalMart, reducing truckage costs, staffing in stores, wastage.
Why is it illegal? When my grandfather died he had some in his sock drawer, one for each grandchild. I may have the date wrong, but it was silver. very pretty! Very shiny! and now---converted into a dollar worth of candy. damn kids.
EDIT never mind JD finished reading the thread and saw your post. hmmm. i was pretty sure it was 1964. I would double check, but, well, thanks to the boneheaded reasoning of 9 yr olds ( i didnt know it was yours mom! But son, you had to go into my room, open the jewelry box,dug through the crap and pull it out! oh, sorry mom) then again JD my memory of the date could be off. dammit this is gonna bug me even more than finding it gone!!
Point taken. Would you agree that this change is likely to remain substantially in force, pending a major upturn in consumer spending, which is really what I was hamfistedly attempting to say?
Absent high demand, reduced inventory has to be a giant win for WalMart, reducing truckage costs, staffing in stores, wastage.
Agreed, thin supply inventory is the new norm. Tht said I'm not sure this is a big win for Walmart. They've invest a lot in the current fat pipe model and don't realize any competitive advantage without running that system near full. They also own a lot of real estate that isn't doing very good. That will catch up with them eventually.
Thanks. She was an amazing and strong old bird. She lived through the depression in Germany as a child and lived in Berlin all during WW2. She taught me so much. She will be very very missed.
good morning!
This can't be right, the housing market is recovering strongly.
mood gorning!
--bh
"post home buyer tax credit slump"
I love it CR, you have a way with words.
So their "seasonal" adjustment process doesn't adjust for credit seasons ... like Kondratieff Winter?
don't know if you saw it or not as so not to hijack this thread...reply to energycon and traderwalt ....in the F/F Counterparty risk
thread.
Clearly they need to adjust their formulas to improve this news.
CR, what timing would you expect for the potential "upside surprise" from accelerating New Home Sales? In other words, how long do you expect the post-homebuyer taxcredit slump to last?
Does this mean that pretty soon I won't be competing w/ all the idiot marginal FTHB out there?
It really sucks being an extremely well qualifying 20%+ high credit score FTHB as prices are being driven up by all the marginal idiots out there and I can't compete w/ them.
It appears the post home buyer tax credit slump had started
I convinced my wife to hold off buying a house 'til at least Spring, so I am hoping the trend continues...along with my job.
,rads y apparatchicas,
Good morning happy doomers~
rb,
We will be buying in the Spring after getting my wife to defer since July, 2007...
Do these numbers indicate applications approved, or just raw applications submitted?
N-N,
Left you an answer there as well, that is a great approach (continuing any follow on on previous thread).
Wisdom Speaker, I expect some pickup in activity with the tax credit extension and expansion (although the interest should be lower). And then another slump after the credit ends. I haven't really thought about how long the slump will last - probably several months or a year - it really depends on much demand was pulled forward and house prices.
best wishes
I think that is Hoover watching us with his beedy little hopium eyes.
Applications submitted.
best wishes
energycon, ditto.
jd
1
good morning to you too
edit
got
It suddenly occurred to me this is probably not the blog to visit when I need cheering up. On the flip side of that coin; it might help me hit rock bottom.
rb wrote:
The local paper quoted a RE broker saying, basically, if you're sure of your employment prospects, now's still a great time to buy. My answer to that is, dig me up a few people like that, willya?
energyecon wrote:
It's good to get some validation from someone sharp
nova wrote:
Hoover I or Hoover II?
New mortgage filings "plunge" (even with the $8000 time extension)...put simply...and I re-iterate...only one in ten persons are now credit-worthy...and the government mortgage boost program has pretty much shot its wad as far as reaching that little ten percent of qualifiers.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Ending tax credits before mid term elections may be suicidal.
Is that a documented phenomenon? I'm not doubting the numbers but was just wondering if they keep track of that.
and the government mortgage boost program has pretty much shot its wad as far as reaching that little ten percent of qualifiers.
Which means they'll just continue to do what the FHA is doing: loaning to anyone who can fog a mirror.
And then another slump after the credit ends.
End? It's never gonna end.
On another note, it was interesting that yesterday (?) there was a discussion here about how much gold the US govt. has & where, and today there's a news story on CNNMoney.com about how much gold the US is sitting on in Ft. Knox. Coincidence? Hmmm.
bout how much gold the US is sitting on in Ft. Knox
Speaking of
, where's Slumdog with his Lock-Of-The-Week?
Thinking about housing demand in light of something I looked at overnight:
Of the 1625 Value Line stocks, only 432 have positive changes in "as-reported" '% EPS 12-month Change Latest Quarter" as of the current database (a few minutes ago). The rest show earnings declines. And of course actual earnings are doing worse because the one-time items inevitably cut into actual EPS.
The S&P 500 has a trailing P/E (based on actual EPS) of about 130. That means the earnings yield is about 0.0075, less than 1%! But the dividend yield is still just under 2%.
This means there are a lot of corporations, even profitable ones, whose earnings are insufficient to meet their dividend payments.
Ignoring the nearly half of the database which pays NO DIVIDENDS WHATSOEVER, it is still true:
I'm still trying to find where in the Value Line world they deal with real, GAAP earnings. The picture is certainly worse there.
It seems to me that the cash flow crunch is not abating, and two thoughts that leaps to mind are "cut jobs further" and "cut complexity in cost centers". Expensive, hard-to-administer benefits are likely to change. Hiring doesn't appear to be much of an option.
And consumers facing job-cut risks and radical changes in their benefits and cash flow are less likely to run out and buy houses, which generally require a stable outlook for at least a 5-year timeframe...
Remember that the housing demand is heavily skewed to investors as well as first-time credit seekers. If price/rent ratios continue to tilt in favor of rents (prices having stabilized due to Moolah-for-Mansions, with rents still falling), then investors will pull back. So the organic demand is going to face a lot of pressure yet.
so this is sort of cash4huts? doing same thing?
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Thank you. That's what I thought, but figured I should verify that I wasn't off-base. I wonder if there's a reliable percentage between submissions and approvals; anecdotally I keep hearing about deals in my area falling apart due to credit issues.
Kristina<
The truth shall set you free.
Hoover I
We made an offer and it didn't work out. I did a look around the area on ZipReality. Rural America, at least outside of the NO. VA. area looks to be really screwed. When you have your double wide on 5 acres up for sale for 250K and land is being dumped by developers all around you...well, it's only a matter of time before the big screen is getting loaded into your F-150
I think he's stopped posting those in the public domain, but you can get it by calling 1-800-SLUMDOG.
And consumers facing job-cut risks and radical changes in their benefits and cash flow are less likely to run out and buy houses, which generally require a stable outlook for at least a 5-year timeframe...
Yeah, but these are Americans you're talking about, where hopium springs eternal. We shall see.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
There is a support group. The first step is acknowledging that the economy has a problem. Somewhere around step 6 is acknowledging that you are powerless to do anything about it. There's also some "higher power" stuff. Not sure if that means politicians, lobbyists, donors, or someone else.
No one let the (Slum)Dog out!
This is an order.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Demotivational Poster: Rock Bottom – You’ll Know It When You Get There Demotivational Poster - DemotivateUs.com
lol @ central planning
Oh, nova, what a shame. It's never the last fine prospect, however.
nova - Don't give up. We made 6 offers on places before our current was accepted. You have to stay true to your inner bargainhunter and don't compromise.
(I can bet your area is tough tho, competing with all those govt. jobholders)
burnside, Thank you.
nova,
I confirm that observation.
per acre costs of rural land in VA is absurd. typically 20K per acre. If it has a four trees fallen down with a tarp over it, that's an extra 100K right there--"rustic cabin in verdant grove"...
--bh
The Foreclosure Rate Abates – 24/7 Wall St.
Hmmm "higher powers"...Lloyd Blankfein?
Sorry to hear that nova; I'm certain you'll find something else soon. IMO the new Realtor mantra should be "sell now, or be saddled forever."
Comrade Kristina wrote:
You'll know it when you get there...
http://www.jonco48.com/blog/RockBottom.jpg
EDIT: Dammit, beaten by the tall nordic economist.
dum luk wrote:
It's misleading to conflate NOD's and sales of foreclosed properties. The drop they describe is probably from a drop in sales.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Let's see:
[Ending tax credits before mid term elections may be suicidal]
That credit has a few remaining extensions yet. For sure through next Nov.
A little of the local flavor:
After finishing the 2009 fiscal year with a $9 million deficit, Columbia City Council members approved $150,000 in taxpayer money for an efficiency study - and have told the city's interim city manager to find the money to pay for it.
The city will pay for the study in part by selling a small piece of land on Huger Street to VistaBank, a Columbia bank that formed in 2007, for $100,000. The source for the remaining $50,000 "will be determined."
Council OKs $150,000 study on efficiency - Local / Metro - TheState.com
---Living in South Carolina is like a comedy every single day!
nova,
On the other hand, if you are into owning your own small mountain under 3K an acre look here:
Charlottesville 422358 Virginia
--bh
gabyjan: cash4huts...made me laugh hard.
bearly -
I'd agree unless the program exhausts the pool of potential purchasers, and is seen to have done so.
Why on god's green earth would anyone want to buy a home?. Why not just send that down payment to me instead.....or just put it in a pile and burn it...same end result for you in any case.
Ciao
MS
bh,
Make a nice location for a deer camp. :]
Going on a kayak trip on the Colorado River (put in below Hoover Dam) on the weekend, and it allows me to do quite the drive-by of Las Vegas-adjacent.
Pavlovegas is different, because it's not only a disaster financially, but also from a ecological standpoint, with dwindling water resources and the invasion of the Quagga mussels, which are breeding like underwater swingers, and are threatening to take down the hydroelectric capabilities for sin city, by gumming up the works. It's entirely the wrong sort of reinforcement.
The side-walls behind Hoover Dam are without water & picket-fence white, like a giant curtain on either side of the river, the lowest levels have been in an awful long time, and Lake Mead? There are boat-launching ramps that are a mile from actual water.
On a happier note, the bird life on the other side of Hoover Dam is nothing short of amazing, and perhaps we'll see as many as a dozen desert bighorn sheep practically running down cliffs, on occasion. About 20 hot springs await us, along the river, up canyon...
HomeGnome wrote:
fails to resist temptation to compare with the OS and evil vampire
some investor guy
google tried but i think they are really happy that i found cr.
ive always known that there was nothing i could do about anything even when i called one of my representives(he didnt answer so i deleted him) but i can bitch,oh can i bitch and sometimes i get answers. lot better than hitting google search box
spunkmeyer says...I keep hearing about deals in my area falling apart due to credit issues.
I repeat-credit score destruction has rendered hopium induced green shoots as ineffective in lab tests...
Heh.... the wife and I often talk about retiring to C'ville (both UVA grads).
Living in South Carolina is like a comedy every single day!
nothing beats the "3 Hebrew Boys" ponzi scheme. seriously, i think that each and every victim deserved to lose their money, given the promises made by those guys.
,rade kristina
here
FML: Your everyday life stories
Oh goodie, a global command economy. We really are flying the instruments and not the airplane. Hu's North American regional director was just on the idiot box claiming he's saved a million jobs. I'm sorry but where is the critical fourth estate covering that whopper? Obam has gotten everything he's wanted concerning the economy. What are the results? 10.2% U-3 when his "million jobs saved" would put us at 8.6% per CR's chart. And now with the domestic crises well in hand he's off to Asia to prevent a trade war while "protecting" the domestic economy from predation.
["Herbert's watching with interest" is classic.]
nova
keep looking, my grandma always said if you dont get something maybe what you need isnt there.
Ye shall know the Truth, and it shall make you flee.
True, Basel.
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Three South Carolina men accused of bilking investors out of millions made anyone with ties to law enforcement or attorneys leave their seminars, and threatened investors with $1 million in fines if they told anyone about the massive returns they were making, a former bookkeeper testified Tuesday.
"If you are affiliated with any legal entities ... would you please leave?" Somera Samuels said one of her bosses, Timothy McQueen, said at seminars he hosted with his two business partners.
The trio called themselves the "3 Hebrew Boys" after the biblical tale of brothers who survived an inferno because of their faith. They are on trial in federal court on nearly 60 federal charges, including mail fraud and money laundering, and face decades in prison and millions in fines if convicted.
Prosecutors say McQueen, Joseph Brunson and Tony Pough preyed on debt-plagued investors, luring church congregants and even U.S. soldiers serving overseas to invest a total of more than $80 million with their group. They promised daily returns up to 500 percent.
TheState.com 404
---Common sense isn't so common.
,rade kristina
no hes just a lacky
JD<
You might need a little soak time during/ after that trip.
Enjoy, you lucky, um, dog.
energyecon wrote:
"Housing will reach a bottom by March 2010, with lower- priced properties recovering value more quickly than expensive homes, First American CoreLogic said last month."
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Surpass 300,000 for 8th Straight Month - Bloomberg.com
nanoo
isnt it they doing same thing as they did with cash4clunkers. they just cant get the time right.
Musical CEO's?
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration's pay czar said on Thursday his compensation rulings will allow General Motors Co and Chrysler Group to retain talent but is willing to consider "lateral" offers to hire new executives.
Kenneth Feinberg, the U.S. Treasury's special master for executive pay at seven companies with massive taxpayer bailouts, told a forum sponsored by Bloomberg that the auto industry largely accepted his pay rulings without appeals.
"If General Motors or any other company wants to bring someone in laterally -- laterally -- and competitive pay packages require that lateral hires get certain competitive pay, what have you, we're perfectly willing to examine that," Feinberg said.
Lots of bighorn wandering around just pass hwy 40 as you get into the narrows before you hit lake havasu...beautiful country...and rumors of gold around there
"only one in ten persons are now credit-worthy"
I would love to see some hard data on this claim. Clearly, the govi is the new sub-prime lender offering no money down loans with FHA and the tax credit. We also hear/read of many savers/investors buying houses for cash.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 9:54 am
Hu's North American regional director was just on the idiot box claiming he's saved a million jobs. I'm sorry but where is the critical fourth estate covering that whopper? Obam has gotten everything he's wanted concerning the economy. What are the results? 10.2% U-3 when his "million jobs saved" would put us at 8.6% per CR's chart.
2009: Administration promises "green jobs"
2013: Administration promises Soylent green jobs
ms
why would anyone want to buy a home? well if you want to have pets,if you smoke,if you have kids if you want to paint your house carolina blue in ga, lots of reasons
Obama's pay czar concerned firms could lose talent - Yahoo! Finance
Treasury pay czar 'very concerned' pay rules could cause bailed-out firms to lose talent
score:
1 Trilion +
:bagHolders: 0
gabyjan: so far its a
headed for the 
IMO.
allen c- I would guess its more like 1 in 5 but the tale I see everyday with credit is right out of a stephen king novel
gaby-
Sorry but those are not compelling enough reasons to torch a growing % of it's perceived value going forward. Renting is about the only sane option at this point. If I had an unoccupied rental I would seriously consider burning it to the ground on the news (last week) the FHA is now in somewhat direct competition with me. Insurance concerns be damned.......
Ciao
MS
RD said; "Obam has gotten everything he's wanted concerning the economy."
Wow, that's so not true--but it was true for Bush the first 6 years. O might turn out to be a screw up--but Bush is confirmed to be at the head of that class. Why won't some on this board blame the author, why go after the new editor--his version hasn't been published yet? Are you wishing Bush still president--and Paulson/Cheney/Rumsfeld pulling the strings?
DJIA 10.3k
U-3 10.3%
Elephants and Asses
Trampling the Masses
It is the system that is broken.
oh poor ponies,someone save all the poor ponies.
his version hasn't been published yet?
His version won't ever be published. But he'll give lots of prime-time pressers talking about it.
FYP.
REBear wrote:
Articles like this just decimate that whole "hope" thingy I used to have.
Mel wrote:
I await examples of those aspects of his economic policies that have been thwarted.
the similarities between the US now and the USSR in '91 are astounding-just as are the motions in the economy of GDI-Jon Stewart is funny, but not.
Speaking of In glod we trust, where's Slumdog with his Lock-Of-The-Week?
Eric, Are you sure you want to be his whipping boy again today?
"his version hasn't been published yet?"
Ah...newsflash! yes it has...it's not only along the same lines it's worse when you factor in the "change" BS. The only difference is the republicans tell you that they are going to screw you and democrats say they won't. End result is still the same.
Ciao
MS
Eric, Are you sure you want to be his whipping boy again today?
It's infotainment. I picture Slumdog borrowing Cramer's set, complete with horns and buzzers and all that other good stuff.
amen
I finalized my land purchase 11 days ago but my mother passed away and now I have ins and estate money I need to shelter.
The problem is there is zilch, zero, nada out there at a reasonable price. Every barely qualifying yahoo is bidding 25 to 40k over the suspected appraisal price. They do this so they get to the top of the list then let the appraisal and the lending bank drive it back down. The good news is that the banks are now asking that the potential buyers pay the difference between the appraisal and offer out of pocket or rolled into the financing somehow. Of course the buyers then can't come up with the extra so it falls out. Wash rinse repeat.
The best is when some agents tell their buyers to put in offers on 3 or more short sales at the same time then let the appraisals wash them them out until they get "the deal". It's like going to Vegas and putting 1k down on red on every hot table until one comes in. It's insane. They are blowing 1ok and up just to get a 8k credit.
At least that is what is happening around any area I'm interested in in Sacramento.
Healthcare reform would save corporations a lot --if done properly. If we followed the French system, labor costs would go down substantially.
"I convinced my wife to hold off buying a house 'til at least Spring, so I am hoping the trend continues...along with my job."
Same here, rb... unfortunately my job has buckled first. No great surprise, though.
,rad Gnome,
My favorite is Gold Strike Canyon, which has about a dozen hot springs, and a series of 3 fixed ropes you have to climb to get over large boulders, to get up to the ne plus ultra, a 107 degree-10 foot deep model.
Let's not slam the guy too hard......he has some well-thought out scribes. I think the lack of humility is what the issue is here. People are too quick to use the ignore button here...I never use it. Lest I think that I know it all....I don't and neither does anyone else FTM.
Ciao
MS
That's crazy talk. Everyone knows the French are Commies!
mel
i seriously thought of making W stay and MAKE HIM FIX THIS MESS,but i realize that it wasnt just him that got us in this mess,it was clinton,bush41 and ronnie,they let it happen, and jmo. obama is just continuing the regime. he just part of the rbcbo and hes the o he couldve but he didnt. he minds his handlers.
But greed is.
Spunkmeyer wrote:
Especially when some
is threatening US govt.
From AP - Feinberg changed his mind after American International Group Inc. CEO Robert Benmosche was threatening to leave...
Bush vs Obama is a toss up.
JD<
You are killing me this morning.
The last outdoors thing I did was take a canoe trip through Congaree National Park a few weekends ago.
Was exciting having a snake drop into our canoe though!
NO hot springs; I assure you.
"The Mess" has been building for 30+ years, IMO.
Some would say since 1913.
apologies if this was already posted as I got sidetracked.
full article here: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091112/ap_on_bi_ge/us_retail_sales_october
credit score numbers-just ran numbers for southeast dealers-last 7 days average credit score was fica-573 for auto shoppers...
with 49% of those below 550.....
,rad Gnome,
It's one of the most amazing float-soak river trips I know of, just 30 miles from Vegas, but it seems like 500 miles away.
I understand.
The Congaree Swamp seems like a different planet.
REBear wrote:
Oh, I'd still take Obama any day. At least thousands of people don't die when we plan to squander billions of dollars.
D Jane- My condolences for your loss... I always believed that MoM turned upside down is WoW! Like wow how did you deal with us rugrats..
The thing about King George II that lingers on, is all the bad stuff he allowed in the first place, is very well entrenched now, and you know how people like to cling onto their jobs in Big Gov?
spunkmeyer
havent you heard of iraq or afghanisan?
"49% of those below 550"
Who is lending to those credits in this environment? GMAC?
49% of those below 550,
So there is a good chance repos will follow suit. Just like FHA underwater loans for recycled foreclosures for tomorrow. Banks will need more short money just like FHA will. Sounds like we are moving ahead to me? Got Debt?
gabyjan wrote:
Of course. Both were started under Bush. I'd really rather not get into an off-topic pissing match about the war(s). It's shit, and it's largely inherited. And I've been against it since it was first discussed in 2002. They can't end soon enough IMO.
Spunkmeyer wrote:
Time will tell
At least thousands of people don't die when we plan to squander billions of dollars.
So you're willing to wager money he'll be pulling out of Afghanistan?
Help! Would someone translate this for me because I honestly don't get it. Is my brain fried or are we talking in circles? This is about FDIC, prepayments of fees for 3 years from banks, not being able to use the funds but it means liquidity to the DIF? uh? I'm missing something?
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSWEN646520091112
what is your point?
Gmac is the new subprime lender...the secondary lenders are history.....makes you wonder how much more the treasury will give them....its an outrage and I make my living off it...
I hate debtpushers..they are worse than drugpushers because they hang out in the swank part of town where sheeple get entranced by all the stuff they want....
Eric wrote:
We'll have no choice. The money just isn't there to sustain it. And the sooner the CIC gets that, the better off he'll be.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
That's my plan. Lots of those C4C vehicles will be flooding the wholesale channel in the spring crushing new car sales as an unintended consequence. Hoocoodanode?
What's a Credit Score? /Snark/
Allen C wrote:
VeriChip Buys Steel Vault, Creating Micro-Implant Health Record/Credit Score Empire | BNET Pharma Blog | BNET
Clinton: U.S. concerned about Afghan corruption
| Reuters
corruption? uh huh pots calling kettel black?
shill wrote:
For Dawgifornia it is bbb- with a watch. In other words Treasuries plus 285 basis points.
Yep, we will see much more of the year over year numbers, as that was the start of the cliff dive in 4Q2008...
Rob and Ben- it will work well, I'll stay in the loop about charge offs at some lenders I know to let you know when those repos start flooding in...
dum luk wrote:
From the article:
"BNET previously noted that some regard the company as part of a prophecy in the Book of Revelation (because the HealthLink chip carries an RFID number that can be used as both money and proof of ID) or as part of President Obama’s secret Nazi plan to enslave America."
Sounds like I can rely on BNET as a really reliable source of news and analysis.
Rob Dawg wrote:
10 States Hurtling Toward California-Level Disaster - The Atlantic Business Channel
i know the area I am in, Shenandoah Valley, is still smoking the HPA crackpipe. There is a house around the corner from me, 1 acre, 3 bed, old farmhouse type colonial on main st the price has just been reduced 75,000 from 299k to 224k. Still AT LEAST 125k overpriced in my opinion, perhaps even 150k overpriced.
The semi-rural areas came late to the run-up but are clinging very very hard to the dream. It was going to lift the more rural areas out of that pesky poverty level into the land of budget suprlus and pork!! A pig for every pot!!
Good luck Nova
nanoo
lets see now they can do the prepayments get them from banks(yeah guess whose paying fees)but cant use them.
omg and we wonder why we are such a mess!
,rad Dawgma,
Like dude, we are the 8th wonder of the world financially, please show a little respect, dude.
by law, the DIF is supposed to remain within certain limits, and if the balance gets too high, assessments decrease. what the article is saying is that the three years of prepayments are not to be booked all at once to the DIF; however, FDIC will have access to the funds (liquidity), accounted over the three years. makes more sense in conjunction with the preceding paragraph in the article, which describes how the assessments are to be expensed by the the banks.
$ move up is strong before 30 year...yet equities are still holding up....talk about controlled environments...
UBS Joins Bofa in Offering Brazil Algorithmic Trading (Update2)
By Alexander Ragir
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank, joins Bank of America Corp. in offering algorithmic trading for shares on the Sao Paulo stock exchange as global brokerages compete for market share in the world’s best-performing bourse.
International algorithmic trading will allow investors to trade using algorithms though UBS without going through a brokerage, the Zurich-based bank said in a press release. UBS began so-called direct market access in Brazil on July 2008, allowing stock traders to complete orders anonymously without going through a brokerage.
“Algo trading is going to be done by more sophisticated institutional investors or hedge fund that will go through the big banks,” said Tony Volpon, Latin American strategist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “It’s a different trading strategy and really is bringing a new type of client to the market.”
Algorithmic trading uses computers to analyze market conditions to determine how much of a stock or derivative to buy and when.
UBS Joins Bofa in Offering Brazil Algorithmic Trading (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
jd
and the first seven too
Mel wrote:
LOL! Mel, I've noticed you really love gimmicks. You fall for every single one of the socialist sales pitches.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Thanks. I'm serious. I expect a wicked arbitrage opportunity especially for the nicer imports. I said "this spring" because I just guessed C4C plus 6 months and factored in seasonality for car sales. It's good to have people with access to the real data. How the lenders handle these charge offs will be interesting. As you know this could trigger a liquidity crisis as they live and die on cash flow.
This horrible news only underscores the fact that even though 70% of stimulus spending has gone to fill in Medicaid and state budget holes...
You can't stimulate away structural black holes in the economy.
They have to be amputated like a gangrenous limb.
Too bad we don't have a culture that can withstand the pain necessary to get well.
Yep...What you need is a Libertarian Paradise vacation. Government is the problem so absence of government is Eufreakingtopia...
YouTube - REGULATION VACATION CELEBRATION!
I dont understand gaby, everything except thepainting i do or have done and have always rented. And honestly figuring in the times the kids markered the walls, they paint is sorta covered too!
Now being able to look around and say this is mine, well, i can see it, and some really really want that, but if you own something, doesnt it own you too? How many people who are looking for a job, get offered a miracle lifeline job, but have to relocate but cant because they are owners? Sounds kind of like a choke chain and internal spike collar to me. ewwww and a shudder.
FHA report to Congress is in (warning, PDF)
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/FHAInsuranceStatus1112.pdf
Outlaw Health Insurance.
Thank you Basel, I got really, really confused but hey, most people here realize this is a perpetual state with this nobody, the foolish practitioner of old Econ. 101. I got told long ago that if you don't understand a game, you shouldn't play it. I still don't understand the game and now life is approaching its winter season.
Outlaw Health Insurance.
Outlaw health care and free up 16% of the economy.
Now there's health care reform for you!
Anybody else find it odd that an acknowledged alien* from far away, has named the left hand corner pocket state of being, after himself?
TPTB aren't 'reforming' health care only how it is paid for.
TPTB aren't 'reforming' health care only how it is paid for.
I don't believe in this health care reform simply because it seems to have the support of the insurance and pharmaceutical industry.
Real health care reform would have these guys rioting in the streets.
Again, nothing can be painful in this country.
But real reform almost always is in the short term.
I'm serious too...I will let you know if the bump in repos you and I are expecting comes up in spring or summer....I bought 2 repos before direct from the lender before they go to auction.......both worked out great...
It's the "If it's done properly" that shows the real problem. Look at any other Fed program that is not a disaster.
Yeah, nova sorry bout that.
I'm looking in nova too, unfortunately. Fauquier Co. . . . and it sucks right now. I really think the banks are holding a lot of inventory. I noticed at the beginning of Oct. the inventory where I am looking and in my price range suddenly dropped by 10-15% (right at the beginning of the month). From what I remember they were all SS. I've seen a few of them come back online as foreclosures. Every single place I have looked at is abandoned.
Now I'm in a bind. I recently found out some good new that I might be moving out of the area for several years (YIPEEE!!!), unfortunately my landlady is being manipulated (the only thing I can think of). I pay my rent on time every month, no issues and yet she will not be renewing the lease. She took out a mortgage on the place we are in to pay for another rental property. Those renters didn't pay rent for a year and owe her 12k! Yet she decides to kick out the renters who pay her on time.
Kicking out someone who pays on time, is quite and doesn't bother anyone in this eCONomy . . . is nuts. She needs the "space" . . . yeah right the other renter in this house acts like he owns the place and has been manipulating her over the past 3 months to kick us out.
It sucks b/c I will prob. be moving in less than 6 months. So I've now got to find a rental for 3 people for less than six months and then move again all b/c some jack@#$ manipulating SOB doesn't like me.
Any ideas on how to tell someone they are being manipulated and taken for a ride. It's bad enough that I wouldn't be surprised if this other renter has written himself into the will!
So we have FHA for houses and GMAC for cars loaning money to poor credits. Both subsidized by the govi.
jd
? what are you talking about?
creditcriminalslovetarp
Thanks I have been on the edge all year and can't pull the trigger on buying any thing due to the real lack of need on my part.
yjacket wrote:
No. You might as well argue with a houseplant. There are so many accidental landlords out there that you should be able to arrange something short-term that puts money in someone's pocket. Winter, I've been told, is never a popular time for rentals to go off-market.
ac
you got a point there about insurance and the pharms but didnt W do a deal with pharnms on medicare?the drug thingie? maybe they are happy (doubt that,but....)
The Ugly Commercial Real Estate Picture - The Atlantic Business Channel
Sounds like South Carolina need to encourage immigration. Aunt Mom and Uncle Dad are producing way more than their fair share of idjits.
Apparatchica gabyjan,
Who let the Dawg out?
UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank, joins Bank of America Corp. in offering algorithmic trading for shares on the Sao Paulo stock exchange as global brokerages compete for market share in the world’s best-performing bourse.
There was a time when it was a big deal when stock markets went up 10% in a year.
Now in the global superbubble 10% is a typical week for emerging markets.
My wife and I tell ourselves "we won't compete with them". We like our cash, thank you very much, and we won't trade it for an asset until the fundamentals pencil out. The debt deflation is still an underreported phenomenon. In my industry, cash-rich companies like mine are booking record-breaking quarters, and the anecdotes we're hearing is our competitors who rely upon credit to finance any aspect of their opex structure are gasping for air (some believe that if 2010-2011 turns out as choppy and then bad as suspected, we'll see heavy consolidation in our industry, and I'm licking my chops at the quality of employees we could pick up in that environment). We are already booking business for next quarter, and the sales pipeline keeps getting filled for opportunities well into 2H2010. This isn't a function of having cash as much as how we got it in the first place, so when looking for investments in this environment I try to draw that same distinction. Most real estate at the moment is an extremely poor investment by that measure.
Despite all the inflation fears that are running about, I remain skeptical; wage inflation is a remote possibility at this point, and I don't see conforming paper mortgage rates rising more than 500 bps anytime within the next 24-30 months. I am more inclined to argue inflation showing up in currency devaluation, and imports getting expensive in USD terms, while assets continue to slowly deflate from debt reconciliation unevenly unwinding in a market heavy with government interference.
At the same time the University of South Carolina Moore School of Business was announcing to the world it had obtained $42.4 million in matching dollars for its gift from Darla Moore and would soon be moving from its home in the heart of campus to a new $90 million building in Innovista, tensions within the building were so bad the school had to conduct an internal survey of faculty and staff to assess the scope of the problem.
/snip
The result? Nearly half of the faculty and staff surveyed said they believe the school’s working environment is a negative one, with the greatest number of complaints targeting the alleged “alienating and arrogant” management style of Dean Hildy Teegen and Deputy Dean Scott Koerwer. Overall, 57 responses were generally negative, 46 generally positive and 14 generally neutral
Free Times: Features - A House Divided: Dissension in University of South Carolina Business School
rsj
yeah i know i really would have continued renting but we had/have cats, so sil bought.
Basel Too wrote:
.......they're requiring "donations" that aren't due and payable yet. Kinda like California kicking up the withholding rate on State income taxes, though they are not owed - just a way for the State to use money that isn't theirs. When I was 10yo, I "confiscated" $10 from my Mom's purse.........kinda like that........except I got an big-time ass-whoopin'......
"At least thousands of people don't die when we plan to squander billions of dollars. "
No I'm guessing it will be in the tens of thousands right here on our own soil....spread out over about 5 years or so. Hunger and starvation is a bit slower than dropping bombs on sand. Here's a great solution to Afghanistan.....just nuke it...in fact just nuke the whole middle east. That may sound harsh but at least you know what you're dealing with...yes people would die however you're just speeding up the inevitable IMO. Not that I am advocating wholesale violence but it sure would make the whole thing easier than the slow drip of what we have now. It's bound to happen in any case on a smaller scale...some nut-job in power will do it.
Ciao
MS
you guys better not get me started on the so-called health care reform. I'd take up the entire bandwidth of the internet in my rant. gabyjan: Part D was supposed to cover Rx meds for seniors. In your neck of the woods a large insurer cooked that
but good. They were told last year to stop taking anymore subscribers. Part D was also 'privatized'.
The reason is they sold 'supplemental' insurance which included part D on simplicity to hoards of the unsuspecting. In an investigation after multiple complaints. It was found that they
*overcharged on premiums
*overcharged the government
*denied benefits without cause
*would not pay for critical Rx's to seniors (like generic heart medications, etc.).
This is what operating health care insurance for profit is about, its metering of care without a moral or ethical backbone.
ac
you got a point there about insurance and the pharms but didnt W do a deal with pharnms on medicare?the drug thingie? maybe they are happy (doubt that,but....)
Yeah... the economic argument for health care reform makes sense to me:
We spend twice as much on health care and get what other countries get for half the cost.
The problem is that tells me that real health care reform entails wiping half the health care industry out of existence.
Yet most people supporting health care reform seem to think it means more health care to go around, and the health care industry isn't complaint about being downsized by 50%.
Something sure ain't adding up...
MS<
Here's a great solution to Afghanistan.....just nuke it
---Take four of these
and call me in the morning.
lobbyist Ben..I'm in same boat...dont need a thing...
Interesting data...
Just ran NE dealer avg credit scores- 584 Fica in November and 55% under 600 s-the sampling is both import and domestic brands...
August data for same region avg credit score was 627
thats quite a drop....I guess hopium deflates with cold air infusion....
What's going on behind the scenes is the NATO allies are telling Obama "no can do" on Afghanistan. Their citizenry can't take it any more.
Obama spin-control now in full back-pedal mode.
Just noticed an interesting point in the WalMart results for 3Q:
Now that's streamlining and efficiency, not panic. If everyone else is doing similarly, then we're not going to see much of an inventory snap-back.
Yah, like when my son confiscated my 1964 silver dollar from my jewelry box to contribute to the purchase of a bamboo "staff for streetfighters" aka a dumb old bamboo stick.
I did not beat him, but he has been doing some very consistent cleaning chores around the house.
Just being pragmatic gnome......rationale and pragmatic don't go to well together...never have.
Ciao
MS
Aren't the demographics going to make the majority on "government funded" health care anyway?
Couldn't be that TPTB spent all the money for that too; could it?
---Paging, Dr. Ponzi.
Ohhh, that explains the Baltic Dry Index cremation.
yourapostasy,
+1
Apparatchica rsj,
It is a good thing your son made off with the 1964 silver dollar and spent it, as it would be quite illegal to own.
Yah, like when my son confiscated my 1964 silver dollar from my jewelry box to contribute to the purchase of a bamboo "staff for streetfighters" aka a dumb old bamboo stick.
I did not beat him, but he has been doing some very consistent cleaning chores around the house.
I did that when I was a kid -- I "confiscated" a bunch of silver dollars to order pizzas which I believed were owed to me because I was left alone at the house.
My sisters still give me a hard time about that saying I squandered their inheritance and all.
Anyone can change their life and be more successful, even with a bad FICO.
If Hootie (but not the Blowfish) can become an award-winning country music star, anything is possible.
Spunkmeyer wrote:
When has a lack of money stopped them before? As long as Treasuries get bid they can do what they want.
That's hilarious, Gnome. By all means open another Business School. The Masons, Carpenters, Plumbers and Electricians can use the money.
Which one of you is Pink?
Darius Rucker.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
That's the way to do it. I was shocked when I first learned of the prices at which dealers traded their inventory. And the markup just getting the Lexus off the Honda lot onto the Lexus lot!
And unlike the used house market there's no gaming by the government whether it be price or inventory.
hootie went country....I thought he was trying out for senior tour....
Actually, what I read of the bill (still reading and it will get watered down some more)...it won't. The biggest gap group now is middle class or whats left of it. It may provide a little provisional relief to small business. I'm not encouraged.
HR676 was written in 2007 with broad bipartisan support. Merely streamlining billing would save ~$300bl/ANNUALLY. Do you know what a massive headache billing is-it means there are more billing agents in hospitals (and likely physicians offices) than hands on providers of care. Its insane. Professionals spend WAY too much time and effort trying to work around insurance, what drug they will pay for or not, what is in the interest of the patient vs what insurance will allow, etc.
Health Care reform isn't in either form by either party.
Lol I had the same thing happen, except my 11 year old was helping herself to my 90% silver Quarters and Dimes. I did not notice until I was doing a little inventory of the treasure and noticed I was light at least 20 plus Quarters and Dimes. I blame myself really for being careless, needless to say my yard is spotless from all the raking she had to do for punishment. I hate to use the term stealing as she thought it was just loose change...non the less....I was pissed.
But in the end the yard looks great.
Now to find my loot!!!!!!!!!! Arrr!
Well, to be fair, Hootie and the Blowfish always did have a mellow, country-ish sound. His new album is doing quite weill .. but calling him a best "new artist" is clearly a bit of a stretch, IMO.
Peace Dollar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
shill-you did it backwards, should have buried treasure in yard and then while cleaning she could have found it...kinda of like a reward card...
jd
why is the 1864 silver dollar illegal to own?
edit to date change 1964 silver dollar
Lol I had the same thing happen, except my 11 year old was helping herself to my 90% silver Quarters and Dimes. I did not notice until I was doing a little inventory of the treasure and noticed I was light at least 20 plus Quarters and Dimes.
A gold double eagle is technically legal tender isn't it?
I wonder if anybody's kid has used one of those $20 dollar coins they've found recently...
Hootie = Darius Rucker
And he/ they have been around for quite awhile.
hootie does not equal Darius...common misconception
Enlighten me, Monkey.
jd
thank you
Great Idea....but I think I'll use the Clad Dimes and Quarters
........want cheaper healthcare? How about reducing nurses wages to $3. per day (vs. the typical $200-300 per shift), MDs pay decreasing to $50 per shift................other countries' solutions could be ours too........it'll happen whether we like it or not.
Outlaw Health Insurance.
Jonathan wrote:
Streamlining and efficiency? No, that's a bet on deflation and response to weakened consumer demand and long supply chain disruptions short term cost cutting and shorter term stock propping. See? It could be any number of things but I do know that 6.2% is a large y-o-y change. Remember half of Walmart is now food and that is very resistant to inventory change so there must have been some pretty major stock adjustments in non-food consumer goods. I'm sure Walmart slaps the efficiency label on this but I find that misleadingly simplistic.
Catz, that great siimulous to the economy.
Our local tv "news" reported, gasp, choke, that people were actually not
paying their mortgages on PURPOSE, and living there free for up to 3 years.
Where have they been for the last 3 years? We should start calling
the the "Olds". this is a MIAMI tv station, not the national news. I listened
to the teaser, sighed and turned off the TV.
"Ruthless" Default Stampede in 3...2....1.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
You should have "appropriated" it instead
LOL.....I was only ten - what did I know? To ME it was "borrowing"
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Hate it when I hit save instead of discard.....
Dawg wrote:
Point taken. Would you agree that this change is likely to remain substantially in force, pending a major upturn in consumer spending, which is really what I was hamfistedly attempting to say?
Absent high demand, reduced inventory has to be a giant win for WalMart, reducing truckage costs, staffing in stores, wastage.
edit
Why is it illegal? When my grandfather died he had some in his sock drawer, one for each grandchild. I may have the date wrong, but it was silver. very pretty! Very shiny! and now---converted into a dollar worth of candy. damn kids.
EDIT never mind JD finished reading the thread and saw your post. hmmm. i was pretty sure it was 1964. I would double check, but, well, thanks to the boneheaded reasoning of 9 yr olds ( i didnt know it was yours mom! But son, you had to go into my room, open the jewelry box,dug through the crap and pull it out! oh, sorry mom) then again JD my memory of the date could be off. dammit this is gonna bug me even more than finding it gone!!
Jonathan wrote:
Agreed, thin supply inventory is the new norm. Tht said I'm not sure this is a big win for Walmart. They've invest a lot in the current fat pipe model and don't realize any competitive advantage without running that system near full. They also own a lot of real estate that isn't doing very good. That will catch up with them eventually.
Thanks. She was an amazing and strong old bird. She lived through the depression in Germany as a child and lived in Berlin all during WW2. She taught me so much. She will be very very missed.
Right there with ya, man.