".......states performing loans "made to creditworthy borrowers" will not require write downs "solely because the value of the underlying collateral declined"
.....CR.........so "making believe" on the collateral values is OK now?...........
So the banks don't care if you are underwater on your office tower/condohotel/mall thanks to the new rules. do you need to keep paying? Do they care if you stop?
No one is calling any loans and taking ownership of the property. Ok.
the banks aren't getting their money, the property speculators are underwater and have no incentive to pay. This works how?
As long as the loan is performing and the borrower is credit worthy. Sounds good, but it is actually pretty easy to make a loan perform with a mod. As an example, say a CRE loan is for $100 million, with payments of $8 million per year. The building is only worth $80 million and the cash flow is $5 million (not enough to cover the payments). Why not just modify the loan with a low interest rate for a few years - and hope the value returns? Win -win. The owner keeps the building (and maybe a little cash flow), and the bank takes no write down. The examiners are supposed to catch some of this stuff - but who knows if they will.
Since Silver and Platinum aren't moving up along with Gold, I'm going to have to buy into the Gold school of thought more than wealth preservation school of thought. Gold is only within 250-275 of Platinum, and Silver hasn't begun to approach 20 USD/oz.
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I would be very nervous if I was holding Gold paper at the moment and would be planning multiple exit routes when it starts back down. My only question is which will have a blowoff top first: S&P or Gold paper?
After all real eaters have a second stomach - one just for desert!
As an aside, I read the last thread but didn't really get a chance to comment. I appreciated your frank report of your world, and I wish you the best of luck. You've also inspired me to continue my project, and I'll update you if any good (or even bad) results from it.
The examiners are supposed to catch some of this stuff - but who knows if they will.
Do yo think they will be told to specifically NOT look for this kind of thing? The old... "Its hard to understand something if your livelihood depends on you not understanding it" thing? Not trying to be all but it sometimes seems these things aren't accidents.
What we need is some good old inflation to cover this all up...
Let's say a 5:1 split on the US dollar. Then I can get paid 5X my current salary.. Gas will be $15 a gallon, but my mortgage will be easy to pay off with 5X the income!
My only question is which will have a blowoff top first: S&P or Gold paper?
I caught myself repeating this thought last week, and then I remembered what happened last summer/fall. Gold and the S&P are only inversely correlated until they aren't.
"Let's say a 5:1 split on the US dollar. Then I can get paid 5X my current salary.. Gas will be $15 a gallon, but my mortgage will be easy to pay off with 5X the income!"
This would work out well for me under one condition. Will I be able to get a job at 5X current salary?
This would work out well for me under one condition. Will I be able to get a job at 5X current salary?
Sure thing. You see as part of the "American Inflation Act of 2009", EVERY job will become unionized and your new salary will be fixed at 5X your old salary. Now your company is probably going to fail using union labor (cough - GM - cough) but that's okay cause you'll get a bailout. Too BIG too fail!
The Gold conversation is fascinating, but I view it similarly to NCAA Basketball
It's an incredibly long season so instead of watching all of the games I possibly can, I follow the overview and hang out 'til March Madness.
My thought as to S&P vs Gold blowoff is that both will move upwards as dollar tanks. But the governments will be responding longer than the individual companies can so Gold will last longer.
Comment as to the value of trade schools. Theoretically, they're the route that we need to go as a country. Unfortunately, they've been the butt of jokes for a generation and it's going to take years/decades to overcome that bias. Until we can start seeing TV dramas in which the heroic engineers bring a new product to market ahead of the dastardly competition, then it's an uphill climb.
There was a ZH article talking about the market cap of the gold market (physical) and its contracts market (paper). Both are barely comparable to companies like Microsoft and completely dwarfed against the USG's debt and world's debt as a whole. The shallow nature makes me think that it may truly be the possibility of funneling Niagara Falls through a garden hose. Unfortunately, I don't see a disruption of the gold paper market causing all paper markets to go down unless it is used to funnel more leverage into an over-leveraged market?
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I'm completely unsure, but I'd bet Gold popping before the S&P if just because the physical is totally disconnected from the paper games.
so, you pay your marginal rate on the appreciation of the currency (gold)? /shaking head. i'll say it, again. the physical medal is useful when you can trade with it. you will trade with it when the USD collapses. like, weimar republic collapses. what does the commentariat estimate the odds are of this happening in the next 12 months?
Sounds good, but it is actually pretty easy to make a loan perform with a mod.
Just a few years ago, when I heard "Perform" and "mod" I thought that it was yet another person wanting to buy my factory-spec Honda Civic so they could put a new engine and a nitrous kit in it.
If it wasn't for government sponsored high value lending AND low interest rates caused by QE AND the choking of supply from the market it is clear we would be at a much much lower price level.The whole housing market is propped up by the government, at every level.
Problem is, you need a manufacturing policy to go with them.
in some circles in DC, manufacturing is a relic of barbarous times, just like the precious. look at who's been charge of restructuring the auto industry. Steve Rattner (financier), Brian Deese (the 31 year old law student), etc.
what does the commentariat estimate the odds are of this happening in the next 12 months?
After having kids I've learned that 12 months is really just a blink of an eye, so I'd put the odds fairly low at a Wiemar situation within a year. However, that doesn't mean there won't be a bit of shock and awe within that same timeframe, just that it'll hold together. I have a feeling my two-year-old will be heading into high school before some of what is predicted here may come to pass.
I'm just more certain of the probability of it occurring now, than I am about the timeline.
No, other than not getting a job with schlumberge (sp?) right out of college like a friend did. Or, foolishly not listening to my other friend who is a professor of petroleum extraction or some sort of thing who told me no one knows where the price of oil will go but he advised me to buy it at $35 because that was a no brainer. I bought at $50. And stopped out soon thereafter. So, I guess I do have experience but it ain't good.
I'm expecting Oil will play a very big part in my investing in the next 20 years.
Clarification for my part: When I talk about "Gold", I mean implicitly mean its paper market. Once it becomes apparent that its value is disconnected to reality or worse that it isn't tied to a way to put gold in your hands, I think people will run for the doors and crush the paper's value. I do not foresee the physical side being liquidated before the paper side. In sum, my Out-Of-My-Arse guess would be Gold paper > Equity paper > Gold physical if I had to arrange just those three types.
dryfly - that's great news. I hope your situation is a true trend. Maybe we will look back on this period and say - I remember just when that terrible recession started to lift - dryfly's business picked up, and after that, everyone's business seemed to pick up.
Keep us posted on whether or not you see this as an isolated event, or a real shift.
Contracts. Derivatives. Stuff that says its represents a physical gold reserve somewhere, but as far as the average retail investor is concerned, it is strictly paper.
sdtfs - not only that, the gold market also is clairvoyant, the information gleaned from its seeing into the future accurately reflected by the current price, just like any other market.
I didn't write "gold paper". (Kcoop, glitch!) But my dad used to carve signs from wood for businesses and then line the letters with Gold Leaf. Perhaps that is gold paper.
And there is a nice curve of loans right at the traditional conforming limit.
Yeah, in my older post I used to mark up the charts and add some analysis so you could see the areas where PMI was being eliminated or the conventional ceiling raised, etc. But I don't that much anymore. There is a that huge gap above 80% LTV where there is very little conventional lending, It is almost all FHA/VA now. That is the private mortgage insurers not underwriting much new business (especially in CA).
in some circles in DC, manufacturing is a relic of barbarous times, just like the precious. look at who's been charge of restructuring the auto industry.
I can't talk about this anymore without becoming extremely angry. I'm fed up with all of them. The sons of bitches are going to learn in spades that you don't add value by slicing and dicing paper.
You add value by creating, and a lot of that creating is called "stuff."
Contracts. Derivatives. Stuff that says its represents a physical gold reserve somewhere, but as far as the average retail investor is concerned, it is strictly paper.
Okay, I got it now. This is not a time you want to be short that stuff, unless you can lay your hands on "gold physical" to cover. Part of the relentless accumulation you are seeing may be traders who are heavily short gold paper trying to manage an exit. Not unlike traders who are short stocks having to buy back in a squeeze.
You know, I got married in India into an Indian family. And the highest honor they can show is to serve you that (gold paper) for dessert. And I just couldn't get it down.
Read them, and draw your own conclusions with respect to their statement that they see OECD conventional oil production peaking in 2010...what is the value of imperfect information (any other students of decision analysis out there?)?
mp - don't get too angry. A guy your age needs to think about blood pressure. Hope you got a stairmaster with all that gold. In order to lower your blood pressure I can tell you I'm a former Obama supporter. I voted for Obama over McCain for one reason. "I don't think he will bomb Iran". That was the only difference I saw between the two but since there are a lot of nice families in Iran, who's kids don't need to get a in person introduction to White Phosphorus, that was enough. With what is happening in Afghanistan, i no longer believe that.
Read them, and draw your own conclusions with respect to their statement that they see OECD conventional oil production peaking in 2010
My conclusion has been "Reality is a b^tch", and that "b^tch" is getting festy, cagey, and angry.
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TPTB are playing with a financial nuclear reaction, and for some reason, they are all playing for time just so they don't have to be the first one to panic. However after that first heart card is played, whoever is holding the queen b^tch spade will throw it as soon as possible.
Yeah, I pretty much blow through the GHG stuff there myself - I think the emerging exigent circumstances are going to moot most all of that - the material about the investments that are required vs. the investments that are occurring and where the oil production growth is supposed to occur are the meat on that bone...
In some cases, imperfect information may actually lead to a worse outcome than would total ignorance of reality. You can't expect linear causality (which is pretty much what every argument from 'fundamentals' amounts to) to apply to an open, nonlinear system except in short-term and temporary islands of stability.
the material about the investments that are required vs. the investments that are occurring and where the oil production growth is supposed to occur are the meat on that bone...
I think it's relevant, but I also think it was necessary. I have a few acquaintances in the oil sands and the level of 2007-2008 'investment' created a climate that could only be labelled 'absurd'. A few dry years will be healthy to focus operations and R&D activities so that investment is actually channelled somewhere productive.
RockyR,
I am sure the Uzbeckis down the block, and the Bulgarian who lives across the street from my father declare all of the their cash income to the IRS, and in addition, pay the current rate on their inflation gains in gold and euros.
And, if you believe that, I have some oceanfront property here in Arizona at 5200 foot elevation.
I do. US invented bubblejets, flat screens, and what the heck, the grand daddy of them all, transistors.
My point is that these goddamned pointy head bean counters who have come to run US corporations sold us out.
They sold the damned technology because, in their infinite bean counting wisdom, they could make more money selling the technology than they could by making the shit.
how many people know about Filo T Pharnsworth? And how he got screwed by a corporation
Philo Taylor Farnsworth (August 19, 1906 – March 11, 1971) was an American inventor. He is best known for inventing the first fully electronic television system, including the first working electronic image pickup device (video camera tube), and for being the first to demonstrate fully electronic television to the public.
I was under the impression that foreign manufacturers just reverse-engineer our products anyway? (and copy them, I mean)
The trinitron was not the type of tube you could put together without a lot of know-how, and it had a far superior picture than conventional color tubes.
RCA had the know-how to manufacture it, but Sarnoff, Jr (bastard) didn't want to bother with it because it had to be assembled in a clean room environment.
Oh, that was too much trouble. Not enough profit.
So, Sarnoff, Jr. (bastard), in his infinite wisdom sold a license to Sony.
Keep us posted on whether or not you see this as an isolated event, or a real shift.
Will do - someday I might even write a case study about this whole affair. Been stranger than I can report here how it has unfolded - some real lessons learned. Not done yet either. When dealing with huge multi-nationals its never over.
They sold the damned technology because, in their infinite bean counting wisdom, they could make more money selling the technology than they could by making the shit.
I know a few of us have batted around the idea that taking even a portion of the TARP funds and funneling them toward large, capital and R&D-intensive public projects would provide a new footing for the next generation's economy and potentially make both research and manufacturing sexy again. Unfortunately, this demands a level of political adventurism, courage, and foresight that appears to be lacking.
I was under the impression that foreign manufacturers just reverse-engineer our products anyway?
Where's dryfly? Reverse engineering isn't as successful as acquiring the technology. I'm guessing because you're trying to build a complex product in isolation. Like trying to build a radio on a desert island.
Edit: I think that's also part of mp's beef with the Chinese acquisition of high tech machine tools.
Where's dryfly? Reverse engineering isn't as successful as acquiring the technology. I'm guessing because your trying to build a complex product in isolation. Like trying to build a radio on a desert island.
They do somewhat but it is actually more perverse than that - our multi-nationals TEACH them to reverse engineer our products then are SHOCKED when they do it. And want IP protection long after the secrets are out.
Tinkering Makes Comeback Amid Crisis - WSJ.com The American tradition of tinkering -- the spark for inventions from the telephone to the Apple computer -- is making a comeback, boosted by renewed interest in hands-on work amid the economic crisis and falling prices of high-tech tools and materials.
The modern milling machine, able to shape metal with hairbreadth precision, revolutionized industry. Blake Sessions has one in his dorm room, tucked under the shelf with the peanut butter on it.
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology junior has been using the mill to make prototypes for a bicycle-sprocket business he's planning. He bolts down a piece of aluminum plate, steps to his desk and, from his computer, sets the machine in motion.
"In this way we're little different than our prehistoric ancestors, except we use Excel."
Exactly. It's hard enough even without personal investment in the outcome, deliberate misinformation, propaganda and political concerns that trump objectivity. Add those factors and even "simple" problems quickly become intractable.
When they get cold and hungry, and they will, they'll wish they'd had a little more foresight.
It might happen yet. People will put up with present discomfort if they think the future will be brighter.
Currently we're chasing the past, which leads to nothing more than social depression, but I do believe that politicians still possess the power to inspire a country and give it hope. We just haven't seen it in a while, so we forget what it looks like.
noob, you have a keen ability to miss the big picture - the oil sands are a side show with respect to the global scene - while material, and will be producing hydrocarbons long after other areas have been pumped dry, the inherent limits on the ability to ramp up production relegate them to a supporting role, not a lead...
Basically, four new Saudi Arabia's need to be developed in the next twenty or so years to meet the baseline scenario growth requirements and the scale of investments that is predicated on is not occurring at this time (~$1.1 trillion/year). The resources to accomplish this don't exist in the OECD, and the access and incentives to achieve it don't exist outside it (with some raising questions regarding the sufficiency of the resource base to get there without access and investment constraints).
And that Basel, is why I love this country. There are youngsters with some drive.
Not relating to mfg, but know of a teen who bought out a supply of porn videos online @$5/movie and then sold them out of his car trunk in the high school parking lot @ $10/movie.
Basically, four new Saudi Arabia's need to be developed in the next twenty or so years to meet the baseline scenario growth requirements and the scale of investments that is predicated on is not occurring at this time (~$1.1 trillion/year).
The 80s were like that too - economically it was a disaster zone but tinkerers sprouted up in garages all over. I hope like hell there are more out there like Blake Sessions. I'm betting there are.
our multi-nationals TEACH them to reverse engineer our products then are SHOCKED when they do it
My impression (once again) was that the foreign manufacturers have gotten sophisticated enough that they are pretty well able to reverse engineer our stuff. If I'm wrong, that would be great.
... For the first time in at least six decades, private sector employment is negative on a 10-year basis (first turned negative in August). Hence, the changes are not merely cyclical or short-term in nature. Many of the jobs created between the 2001 and 2008 recessions were related either directly or indirectly to the parabolic extension of credit. ...
FWIW the small computer shop I help run (service manager) is doing the best business since opening in 1998 (one of four locations). We sell service repair Macs but do plenty of PCs too.
"Flight to quality" or value based purchasing seems to be driving sales - MS Vista sold more Macs for us than ever before. Service and repair are up because we're Apple authorized (warranty work) and because we've sold lots of Macs over the years.
We're in the college town state capitol in one of the flat states west of the Missouri. Economy good even if state leg is in special session right now trying to cut budget.
I have 20+ years on the Mac, last 10 selling and repairing them. Much more satisfying than white collar professional services I did before. Routinely tell young people to hit the local CC, get a two year degree/certificate in some trade (even IT esp. networking and security) because people who can genuinely fix stuff get hired and paid regularly.
Just my snapshot of Econ 2009 in the good ol US of A.
... For the first time in at least six decades, private sector employment is negative on a 10-year basis (first turned negative in August). Hence, the changes are not merely cyclical or short-term in nature. Many of the jobs created between the 2001 and 2008 recessions were related either directly or indirectly to the parabolic extension of credit. ...
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My impression (once again) was that the foreign manufacturers have gotten sophisticated enough that they are pretty well able to reverse engineer our stuff. If I'm wrong, that would be great.
They can do some of it but they don't have all the tricks ironed out. The so called 'tribal knowledge' on the factory floor. What is disappointing is our own companies then go set up shop overseas bring the 'tribal knowledge' with them... teach the locals over there how to do it... then discover those locals then leave & go work for somebody else and take the knowledge with them.
There is nothing as dangerous as a human mind.
Most of the job loss from 'foreign competition' didn't come from foreign companies - it comes from western based multi-nationals locating in foreign 'low cost countries'... and exporting products made there back into the US, EU - etc. Little of the benefit sticks with them little goes to most of us. A few benefit massively.
I have no problem with foreign exports into the US - I work with some, good people - we all need to work & eat - but there has to be some balance and shared gain. The last ten to twenty years it hasn't lived up to promises here or there... we lost jobs, they got stuck with dodgy debt. Broken all the way around. That has to be fixed or there will be hell to pay.
noob, you have a keen ability to miss the big picture - the oil sands are a side show with respect to the global scene - while material, and will be producing hydrocarbons long after other areas have been pumped dry, the inherent limits on the ability to ramp up production relegate them to a supporting role, not a lead...
I'm naturally contrarian in Internet forums which--when faced with a well-versed opponent--usually requires me to take on an inferior argument. This is probably why I always appear so vapid in this forum
Of course oil sand, shale, etc are only going to be a side-show; however, the only contacts I have are in the oil-sands, so my assumption was that investment in conventional extraction tech when prices were >$120bbl were becoming similarly frothy. But, of course, this is an anecdotal connection in which I'm certainly willing to concede is incorrect.
As for the overall energy picture, your earlier comment regarding decision analysis using suboptimal information is completely apt, especially when dealing with Saudi estimates (from what I've been told). Energy security (or even availability) is bound to become a national priority within a few short years. As will food security, if we receive even one good sizable mid-western drought. Or financial regulation, if the whole works falls apart in the next 18 months. And that doesn't even account for black swans.
We've got our share of challenges in the next couple of decades, of that I'm certain.
We've got our share of challenges in the next couple of decades, of that I'm certain.
And did I mention your gift for understatement?
Oh yeah, some of it was just as nutty though it was interesting to watch big oil, as it seemed like the majority of senior management recalled watching the movie and recalled how it ended...the capital budget increases were nothing like the price ramp. And the current capital spends are more like what we would see in a $40-$50 per barrel world for the big conventional projects, which are getting slow walked.
And to tie that back into the idea of making irreversible investment decisions under uncertainty, the only thing that we can be sure of is that things going forward will be different in some material ways...it seems to me that there are too many king hell big shocks that have rung the bell of the world and the reverbrations are going to be echoing around the world for years to come...with the possibility (high probability depending on POV) that what may be one of the biggest bell rings of all is just around the corner.
Where the heck is Rob Dawg to explain to you your confusion about the oil business and call you a Peakinese? The day he gives it up is the day I get really worried (already plenty worried as is).
.it seems to me that there are too many king hell big shocks that have rung the bell of the world and the reverbrations are going to be echoing around the world for years to come...with the possibility (high probability depending on POV) that what may be one of the biggest bell rings of all is just around the corner.
Agreed, and I'd extend it to indicate that we're witnessing the demise of the multi-national conglomerate, at least for the next few decades. Sure, a number will continue to survive, but their forte is economies of scale during periods of stability that permit currency, regulatory, and input cost arbitrage. With an unstable global economy, their competitive advantage is eroding. What will replace it will be companies like dryfly's, which are smaller, more nimble, and able to duck in and out of opportunities due to less overhead.
This isn't all positive; the lack of volatility in the forex market (comparitively) from the early 1980's through to the mid 2000's permitted some people to live out almost an entire career with a stable dollar. This led to all sorts of distortions in the labour market, including offshoring jobs into low-cost countries. However, given the current period of forex volatility, who is going to go through the effort of off-shoring their call-center to India if the exchange rate moves 10 or 20% in a matter of weeks/months? Or invest millions in moving their manufacturing to Thailand if the bhat is not stable?
This also works the other way: employees may have to learn that opportunities in the employment market over the next few decades will be measured in months, not years. A six-month contract here, depending on exchange rates; a four month contract there, depending on factory orders. Piecemeal, until global adjustments are made and stability returns. Which I don't really expect to see before I'm quite old.
The Compac's guts are made of brass and tool steel. The damned things last forever. Many of the Starrett dial indicators, like Mitutoyo, have plastic components. They work great, for a short while, then you have to throw them away. I'll never buy another one.
In fact, some of the Chinese indicators are actually superior to the Starrett and Mitutoyo, even though they're made from plastic too. So I ask you, what the hell is going on?
Are the Swiss the only people who have any goddamned pride any more?
Or is it just about counting the beans? Well, I'm one guy who'll predict that Compac will be around a hell of a lot longer than Starrett.
With this recession in it's 22nd month, Obama and his administration looks increasingly paralysed and out of touch. And this is from someone who voted for him! Sometimes I wonder whether this country is too large and too diverse to be governed effectively. It's hard to imagine the nation uniting under any of it's current leaders, republican or democrat.
Our system was designed to be stable i.e. maintain the status-quo, the proof of which is the senate where bills go to die. Therefore we'll muddle along with things getting worse ...
My guess is that eventually, we'll have either an independent populist or an ex-general winning the presidency. The general because the military is one of the few institutions people still trust and whose funding continues to grow.
The Compac's guts are made of brass and tool steel. The damned things last forever. Many of the Starrett dial indicators, like Mitutoyo, have plastic components. They work great, for a short while, then you have to throw them away. I'll never buy another one.
mp, I realized it had gotten out of hand when I worked in construction. I'd pay $150-200 for a high-end 18V battery drill from a tool supplier. I happened to walk through Home Depot one day and saw the 'exact same drill' for half the price. So I picked one up also. The drills from the supplier usually lasted a year or more (we're talking heavy continuous use), whereas the one from HD died after a week. I figured it an anomoly, so I returned it, and the next one self destructed after another couple of weeks.
So I took it apart, and low and behold the drill company, I forget which one, had filled the guts of the Home Depot-sold drill with plastic, and the guts of the regular tool supplier with solid metal. I guess they figured the guy using the drill for screwing in a few sheets of drywall and punching a few holes would never notice the difference. But I sure did.
Extend that out a few years, and not enough people buy the high-end stuff to warrant production. And we all end up with crap.
A future of 4-month contracts kills the idea of the 30-year mortgage, at least at it's current income-to-debt ratio. Kiss RE prices good-bye for yet another reason.
A future of 4-month contracts kills the idea of the 30-year mortgage, at least at it's current income-to-debt ratio. Kiss RE prices good-bye for yet another reason.
Additionally, what do you think it does to the savings rate? Or consumer spending?
Finally, I want to rant about all of this "reverse engineering" crap by way of an example, albeit an "old fashioned" one. I use it because it demonstrates the complexity involved.
A typical master rod in a Pratt and Whitney radial engine has almost 200 machining operations before it is hand polished to a mirror finish to virtually eliminate stress risers. You don't just look at one and say "I can do this."
It takes a lot of know-how to plan the operations and come out with a master rod as opposed to a piece of junk.
It isn't as simple as looks. After all, technology comes from technos, technique.
My Indian employer had several commercial products they wanted to push so I downloaded the source for one to use in a project. It's just not there. It took me about ten years to really understand OO design and IBMs products are quite sophisticated. Indians are an order of magnitude behind.
OT: Is there any interest in local meetings over a beverage?
I'm in the Portland metro area have sent inquiries to those who have let everyone know they are in the PDX area and have listed contact info. I'm partial to some place like The Lucky Lab brewpub because I can bring my kid. Anyone interested can send me an email and I'll try a to organize it. Other locations will need local volunteers. The holidays are coming up...
The Financial Services Forum, which represents chief executive officers of 18 of the largest financial firms and whose lobbyists organized the visit to Kanjorski’s office, has scheduled or met about a dozen lawmakers or aides with the House Financial Services Committee in the last week. The U.S. needs big financial firms to compete globally, said Rob Nichols, the group’s president.
‘Vocal and Persistent’ Presence
“Boeing and IBM can’t bank at the Silver Spring Community Bank,” Nichols said. He said he’ll be “vocal and persistent in the halls of Congress.”
He knows who signs his paycheck.. Just like Yun at NAR. Anyone who takes trade groups at face value is fooling themselves. It is a shame that the smaller financial institutions have not banded together as well to provide an alternate view. But to be fair, it is not entirely their fault, If congress was not so willing to pad the profits of those who fill the campaign coffers.
Bought a Starrett tape measure, POS. It damaged my view of what to expect from them.
18V tools, hmmm, can't say that I have tried them all, the Ryobi from HD works and I can set it down without falling over, so that's okay by me. Quit DeWalt/B&D when they started playing with battery sizes and compatibility, don't like much of their stuff anyway. Stopped buying Sears after a drill and a router both had parts break (I bought replacement parts and fixed them) but gave up because the parts were 'sintered' metal,...little metal beads stuck together,...maybe there's a way to do it right, but these weren't done right.
The cheap jigsaw and small grinder from Harbor Freight do the job for the occasional use, but I wouldn't trust the drill or the reciprocating saw. Yeah, I'm part of the reason the overall tool quality is down. I do like some of the Skil saw line, but the tool manufacturers redesign every year and if you find one you like, it's gone the next time you need one.
mp
I think in a previous thread you made it clear that you would not invest in GS even though you might profit handsomely off the trade.
Last year I was introduced to this blog by chance while staying on a former French prison island awaiting my 'in the bag' marriage.
Bored, I took this satanic looking hippie from the east village in NYC and included him in my 10th vid mash-up where I incorporated some audio effects to make him sound he was speaking from hell. the subtitles were all about Alt-A loans (which I knew nothing about) and the verbiage was lifted from a uber-geeky explanation written by none other than the late, lamented Tanta.
To the point... my education was such here that when GS hit 99 a share I told friends with experience to short it down to 50 and then it will bounce and ride it up again. As for me I never took part in the action, I was very ambivalent about Goldman if not downright hostile.
I regret that I did not take my money and double or triple it. Why?
Because when it comes to my art - these days it's primarily finishing my short story collection in the works now for almost 10 years (4 years of a black asian hole didn't help) since I don't have a Medici as a patron I am self financing and the clock is not on my side - now or never.
You may argue that that is wrong but I say to you most great Renaissance artists received patronage from the Catholic Church at times when they were even more corrupt than Goldman. To quote Schindler 'sometimes you have to shake hands with the devil"
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ps: I do respect your moral integrity mp. had Fassbinder not broken into a building and stolen his first camera where would those great works of art be today..?
Blackhalo-didn't mean to be gone so long, but family pulled me away.
When I said self selection bias, I meant everyone here believes in "doing" and not just drinking in front of the TV. We're not a normal group of people by a long shot. But the people who aren't blogging here are actually the ones who (by their actions) control what going on. Perhaps 'control' is too strong a word. So just swapping stories doesn't mean we'll understand what's happening, because of our biases.
1 Currency
back in the early 90s I was dating this anthropologist Dr Charlotte Cerf who dragged me to the Margaret Mead festival since 3 years before they had shown her doc about Bahia in Brazil and how industrial pollution was killing off the fish the indigenous people depended on.
it cost her about 90k and it was financed on a loan against a house she owned. shot in B/W beautifully and a real pro on VO.funny title Black Water...!
great festival! usually I don't like docs from say rabble rousers like Moore, et al, (met him once and he;s a real pr*ck. )
ps: she was a great catch and wanted something like marriage but like usual I had my head up my a**
With peak oil having failed to materialize AGAIN the 'Peakers' are resorting to the tried and trusted.. 'it's all a CONSPIRACY to hide the truth'
~splat
The Amazon is fed by two main sources, one of which is the Rio Negro (Black River). The Rio Negro is clear but heavily tinted by humic acid and tannins from the forest, while the Amazon carries a load of silt and looks white or light tan in comparison. A whole lot of tropical fish come from the Rio Negro.
edit: In order to reproduce the water chemistry, one manufacturer sells "Black Water Tonic", never thought how odd that sounds until now.
re-edit: I guess they thought was odd too, now it's Blackwater Extract
if anyone in Asia right now reads this, could you please extend one or both middle fingers in the direction of Beijing on my behalf?
they officially shut down Caijing and deserve no less
makes you wonder how long until PGBC becomes a headline,
It may never be a headline. Not that there won't be huge problems, but unless they can't pay benefits at some point, we can comfortably ignore the problem until that happens. Given a lack of other news, it would be a headline now! But again, there's a lot of things closer (in an in-your-face kind of way) to worry about.
My brother asked what I thought would happen with the stock market a few months ago, and I said I don't know, but if there's a nice big sharp rise, that's the last gasp before the depression. I'm thinking of the experience of 1933, where the recovery proved false and everyone lost hope.
Wow, it always looks crazy to me when I write it out (and I rarely voice it), but I don't see how it doesn't happen. Still, something like 75 percent still had jobs so, maybe living through it is way different than you expect.
Only if there's a contest,...if your aims are different, you can both win,...alternatively, you can both lose and that's a tie, too. I don't think they're equivalent positions.
it was a borrowed joke, but there is truth
if you call it a win, then there must be a corresponding loser somewhere out there
whether it is doing a task more efficiently, or something like staking a claim for a mine
losing encourages losers to find new games to play that they can win at
since this is an RE centered blog I was just listening to a radio play titled The Day Lehman Died (on NPR) by Matthew Solon.
in this scene banker Scott the cynic who obviously doesn't think they're doing God's work lashes out here excerpt : Scott: Some sales guy, some guy selling mortgages goes to Rust Belt America to a run down street where hope died a couple of generations ago [another character makes a sneering reference to Steinbeck] and this sales guy sells his prospect whose only income is a welfare check and a handful of loose change for stacking shelves in some scum bag liquor store the sales guy sells this guy whose credit rating is so subprime its touching bottom five miles down in the Mariana trench in the friggin’ Pacific Ocean he sells this guy a mortgage. . ""
he then proceeds to skewer them for the way they cut them up in CDOs, etc...
besides being Mamet derivative this dramatic take doesn't guite jive with the facts does it? Rustbelt, i.g.
this dramatic take doesn't guite jive with the facts does it?
Not only that, it steals directly from the "Long Johns" (that British duo who pose as banker and interviewer) who used a guy sitting on a porch in Alabama,...they must have moved it to make it less racially sensitive.
Do yo think they will be told to specifically NOT look for this kind of thing?
Those who succeed in having long and upwardly mobile careers in any government agency have two things in mind: Don't make waves, and cover your ass until retirement. Actual results, such as contributing to your agencies stated mission are often counterproductive and irrelevant.
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 1:11 am
if anyone in Asia right now reads this, could you please extend one or both middle fingers in the direction of Beijing on my behalf?
they officially shut down Caijing and deserve no less
Is "The Finger" subject to inverse-square laws?
I've always assumed near-field, regardless of the distance
"Those who succeed in having long and upwardly mobile careers in any government agency have two things in mind: Don't make waves, and cover your ass until retirement."
That pretty much describes American work culture in bigger companies? Do what you are told to and nothing else, do not take extra responsibility or be innovative because if you fail, you will be fired straightaway. Nobody likes whistle blowers. Never ever go around your boss to his boss. If somebody asks how are you doing, everything is always damn FINE! Straight out of the Dilbert comics except nobody is laughing anymore because of constant FEAR of losing their jobs. Strict command pyramid, even much stricter than in Europe.
That pretty much describes American work culture in bigger companies?
Pretty much.
You won't find many people that will admit it, though, even to themselves. My experience is that it's especially bad with the Gen-x-ers because many of them were raised on the "survival of the fittest' mentality.
You won't find many people that will admit it, though, even to themselves. My experience is that it's especially bad with the Gen-x-ers because many of them were raised on the "survival of the fittest' mentality.
and its sad because as us older folks know, no one is irreplaceable. It doesn't matter how efficient, hard working, brown nosing, back-stabbing you are, when it comes to cost cutting, no one is safe. Thats a for the stock market, corp earnings and evidence of the recession ending while working schmucks deal with the reality of a 'depression'.
This is how that paradigm shift in society will occur. Attitudes which have added fuel to the fire of blaming people for their misfortunes not of their making because of that 'survival of the fittest' will result in a whole new class of the unfortunate. Karma is a biatch.
OT: Hello. I've been a lurker for a few years now...
*re - thread: Economic Outlook: Possible Upside Surprises, Downside Risks...EEngineer wrote: 'Is there any interest in local meetings over a beverage?'
*
I am interested in a local meeting. I'm in the SoCal/Inland Empire area.
Phil Gramm, the former Republican Senator from Texas who co-wrote the act that undid Glass-Steagall, said, “I’ve never seen any evidence to substantiate any claim that this current financial crisis had anything to do with Gramm-Leach-Bliley,” Gramm said in a Nov. 10 telephone interview.
“In fact, you couldn’t have had the assisted takeovers you had,” said Gramm, now a vice chairman at the investment bank division of UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank by assets. “More institutions would have failed.”
Don't you know gabyjan there is some well hidden beer distribution money under Mr. Gramm's watchful eye there and exempted from the FBI/IRS names list in the large tax evasion case.
nanoo
it took a moment but now let me see if i have the right end of the stick, could this beer distribution money in a one of the desert states? maybe say two states right of cali?
Indeed gabyjan, and 7 estates around and about for good measure. Beer and real-estate, what more could you ask for, oh wait, there's more...wink, wink.
"This is how that paradigm shift in society will occur. Attitudes which have added fuel to the fire of blaming people for their misfortunes not of their making because of that 'survival of the fittest' will result in a whole new class of the unfortunate. Karma is a biatch."
Those born this decade are and will be seeing their GenX parents failing and badly. Real "riches" to rags. Their life is not going to be one unique fairytale (like their parents told them) and they will probably experience very harsh teenage years, a real culture shock. In other words, their parents are full of shit Just like boomers in the 60's started to revolt against their childhood 50's regimented and militaristic world.
Some of the leaders might come from wised up GenX/Y but the real revolution foot soldiers will come from children of this decade.
nanoo
i got the right end of the stick! and if things had went differently last nov, mr gramm would had gov job. and he STILL protecting them? i say them cause its wife's money. gramm must think that whatshisname might still be able to give him gov job. and the fbi/irs dont know anything about this, they do now .sic em boys.
gabyjan and Nanoo, I dislike the man as much or more than you do. I think the policies that he pushed through Congress caused huge financial costs to us, the tax payers, and we will pay for them for generations. But I don't know of any indication that he avoided taxes. If he did, he should be investigated, and he should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
kidbuck
about working in the government I agree, back in the late 90s I worked for Dept of Health NYC
on this disease tracking system - yes, I was a developer post '95, sadly - and I was told by the Deputy
Commish that you can not be fired working for NYC unless you do something that's felonious, in actuality
you can be fired but it takes almost 3 years of attempted re-training. what usually happens is you get shuffled
off to another dept. the downside to working for the city is almost no advancement.
Never happen gaby-this is the uber-elite insulated class that have led this nation for two decades, doesn't matter which party. Clinton signed off on all of it and included welfare to work. He also granted the Chinese 'most favored nation' status and began the material DUMP on the USA. traderwalt-of course there will be no 'evidence', do you really think that pandora's box will be opened, this is international, not national? I'm extrapolating as we've seen other examples that hint at it.
Last night I produced a link regarding how broker/dealers manipulate commodities markets and in particular oil. This was made possible by Gramm's CFMA (Commodities Futures Modernization Act) attached at the 11th hour to a must pass bill that was 9,000 pages long. It created the now infamous Enron loophole but it goes much deeper than that too. Goldman-Sachs, Merrill and those 'futures traders' make billions and billions trading paper in the futures market. They also physically store oil. This year, oil is stored off shore in the gulf and elsewhere that there is currently a shortage of places to put it. In bad winters, they will release heating oil and sell it for a very high premium. Last year, people in the north suffered and badly.
Olympia Snowe's state of Maine is one of those regions. She knows as I listened to testimony where she was present regarding the Enron loophole and the CFMA by former CFTC chair Greenberger who resigned in 1999 when it passed. He was so angry he was shaking during testimony. Snows state is poor, people were buying heating oil only during the coldest of nights (there that's sub zero). They couldn't afford to fill their oil tanks, so delivery wasn't possible, they were buying oil by going to the distributor 5 gals at a time. Little press was made over this as our media is pathologically myopic.
In testimony before congress last year, the big 3 oil companies executives reported over a TRILLION in profits just in the first 6 months. Those CEOs said they didn't know what their salaries were, their faces that of Cheshire cats.
Excellent 'heat map' graphic of the U-3 rate as well as some verbiage on U-6, but the graphic should get some attention as it makes visual how fast the rate of change that we experienced in the unemployment rate going up...and we are still at the front end of realizing the impacts.
A California bank that received $298.7 million in federal bank bailout money last year has been seized and closed by state regulators, leaving U.S. taxpayers with a significant loss – the bailout program's first – and raising questions about why the lender received government help at all.
United Commercial Bank of San Francisco was closed by the state Department of Financial Institutions late Friday. The state immediately named the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as bank receiver.
/snip
(The Money Quote)
"We want United Commercial customers to understand that it's business as usual," Tolda said in an interview.
Admittedly, I don't know the details of the "Enron loophole". But as a futures trader I want to point that i think the Enron loophole allowed companies to report false profits that never materialized. Enron stock went up, but the company went BK. (Did I point out that I bet that Ken Lay would never go to prison? I collected on the bet.)
KABUL, Afghanistan — First came the Brezhnev Market. Then the Bush Market.
Now Afghans are beginning to call their notorious bazaar full of chow and supplies bought or stolen from the vast U.S. military bases by the name of the current American president, a modest counterweight to his Nobel Peace Prize.
"It is Obama Market now," pronounced Haji Tor, a rotund shopkeeper who acts as kind of an unofficial chamber of commerce president for the market in the Afghan capital. "Bush is finished."
There is something else I would like to point out. the '08 Farm bill and previous attached food production to energy production in ethanol mandates. This is total folly as now, ag is attached to the same futures manipulation as energy. idiots.
One thing I learned when I traded grain futures. Some people like to complain about welfare programs. Agriculture subsidies, or ag welfare, is many , many times larger. Even if you exclude ethanol subsidies.
I apologize to everyone for OCD posting which isn't RE central. However it does point to the disparities and corruption in the economy. Energy and food is is mandatory, not discretionary spending. The more you pay for the energy, the less left otherwise. It took me a long time to piece together that end of ponzi as all of this is way out of my discipline. and yes traderwalt, the subsidies are massive and goes to BIG ag NOT to grow but I do not know the details, someone should shed a little sunshine there too.
Thats a real productive use of our tax dollars in huge economy with lots of money to burn. /snark.
traderwalt
its okay probably my fault decided to play around with nanoo question well really wanted to see if i had the right end of the stick, in my family im famous for getting the wrong end. im sorry if i mislead you. and sorry to you too nanoo-nanoo
In testimony before congress last year, the big 3 oil companies executives reported over a TRILLION in profits just in the first 6 months.
'scuse me, but wtf? The total annual gross revenue numbers may come close to a trillion, but your assertion of a trillion in profits in six months is off by a factor of 10 or so...and that doesn't get into the issue of conflation (after a great stem winding on the excessive financialization of the futures market which is reasonably accurate we suddenly pivot from the banks to the oil companies and have about <10% of the profits claimed).
.
Don't have time for all of them, so let's just look at the biggest one, ExxonMobil (XOM):
.
XOM Annual 2008 Revenue: $477 B
XOM Annual 2008 Net Income: $45.2 B
XOM 2008 Profit Margin: 9.5% XOM: Income Statement for EXXON MOBIL CP - Yahoo! Finance
.
So the top three may have had ~$100 billion or so in net income in the entire year...which runs at about 8%-10% of gross revenues.
No apologies are needed from anyone, can't say the name or the NSA van will come around (again) and poor CR would get slapped to produce IP addresses and IDs of people who post here. ha It would be considered defamatory in a legal sense and I one of the fortunate who still has something to lose.
energycon: I'll try and find the testimony, I had it on a computer that had a hard disc crash and burn; so my resources got thinned out. Remember, this was when oil was like gold today...going into the stratosphere QUICKLY. The profits were among all three, not separately. Also remember the business structure that separates refinery operations of oil companies; keeping everything on a razor thin margin in production of refined products.
I read the article that Nanoo posted. The writer is missing one point. If two traders sell a position back and forth to each other, that's prearranged trading and is illegal in the US. It's a crime, period. If it's happening, and the US government i is giving money to these people, then it's a huge scandal.
So as not to hijack UE I'll reply here energycon: You are correct and I was wrong. Its complex as the aggregate is difficult to compile. Still, the profits of the oil companies were not because they were producing or there was a shortage, it was totally manipulated and linked to the financial sector futures trading and their forecasts of oil prices. My apologies to you, way too many numbers running around in my pea brain.
Here's a little bit that I learned.
The majors earned a record $125 billion in profits in the first nine months of this year,
an increase of over $35 billion compared to the first nine months of 2008. In the first three
quarters of this year they and distributed over half of their income (about $66 billion) to their
stockholders in the form of dividends and stock buy backs.
Source: Third Quarter 2008 Results
Where Record Profits of the Majors Went in 2008
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Income Shareolder Distribution net new Investment
Billions
BP ConncoPhillips Shell ExxonMobil ChevronTexaco........
The unprecedented increase in oil industry profits in 2008 is the culmination of a six-year
run up that has seen petroleum industry profits increase by more than 600 percent since 2002.
Profits in the petroleum sector, which include oil and natural gas, will likely reach $180 billion,
compared to about $30 billion in 2002.
You're actually looking under the hood of one of the most important parts of the "system", energy, and that is all to your credit. My biggest point is that we should proceed from a common fact base, and then bang into each other's POV on what the numbers may mean...
I believe that there has been excessive financialization in the futures markets, however I disagree with your point regarding the majors not producing - in fact, they do not have those profits without producing both oil (an intermediate input) and final products (gasoline, diesel, heating oil etc.).
energycon: I realize they are actually producing a product for which there is demand...it is the supply/demand and pricing structure which was hijacked via the CFMA and this isn't just a USA born and bred issue. Futures market dictate the price of oil/energy but that is now unrepresentative of a supply/demand market for a product. Last year was ultimately instructive in providing the proof of this. Prices moved on 'forecasts' by those interested parties and traders, witness the now infamous 'forecast' by Goldman (or was it Merrill?)of $200/ppb by Nov '08. who are very large players in the futures market. Instead there was an ultimate crash but not before a lot of pain to the economy.
Today is also instructive as 'targets' for gasoline prices, nat.gas and oil are met despite decreased demand and higher inventories.
energycon,
Maybe Nanoo has a point. If prices are being manipulated, aren't those doing the manipulation committing a crime? Why aren't they being investigated? Illegal profits are illegal, no?
traderwalt: via the article I linked it is the who are profiting as well and in major ways. They are the regulators who would launch an investigation. The brand spanking new SEC COO is a goldman sachs exec.
Big money, big profits, and power-never mind if its illegal, if you don't like the game, then change the law and POOF its not illegal anymore!
Lawyers, writing laws for lawyers. Thats what got us in this fine mess. Us little minnows in that vast ocean don't stand a chance in those shark infested waters. The likes of Gramm thinks we are all just a bunch of whiners if we complain when we're literally robbed and eaten by the big sharks. .
mp - catching up and want to put a note in the historical record, as it were: RCA invented the shadow-mask system and licensed it. As late as 1961, Sony had no plans to enter the color TV market, satisfied with their microtelevisions. But Masura Ibuka (Sony co-founder) went to an IEEE conference in NY in 1961 and saw a demonstration of the Chromatron tube invented in 1950 by Ernest O. Lawrence. The patent was owned by Paramount Pictures. Sony got a license for the Chromatron patent in 1962 and worked on a Chromatron TV for four years without much success. It was considered a crisis by Sony. GE approached them with a possible solution, but after much internal debate, Sony turned them down, not wanting to be a subcontractor to GE. Akio Morita was defending the company to dealers saying "we're behind, but if we develop a stronger product, we can be ahead over 10 years." Finally, Senri Miyaoka came up with a single gun three cathode concept. Sony abandoned all other alternatives, having only to decide which mask to use. Akio Ohkoshi proposed an aperture grill rather than a shadow mask with problems in vibration. Ibuka himself devised the tungsten wires that stabilized the grille. By Christmas, 1968, the Trinitron was on the market.
We should just write these loans off now, it'll save time later when they AMAZINGLY turn out to be non-performing.
~splat
mp, check your
price now.
".......states performing loans "made to creditworthy borrowers" will not require write downs "solely because the value of the underlying collateral declined"
.....CR.........so "making believe" on the collateral values is OK now?...........
So the banks don't care if you are underwater on your office tower/condohotel/mall thanks to the new rules. do you need to keep paying? Do they care if you stop?
No one is calling any loans and taking ownership of the property. Ok.
the banks aren't getting their money, the property speculators are underwater and have no incentive to pay. This works how?
Gold Price Won’t Drop Below $1,000 an Ounce Again, Faber Says - Bloomberg.com
RockyR wrote:
What? Didn't he just say that we should all wait until $800 to pile back into
?
And if Mr. Farr doesn't like the tax rate next year, he can move to China and crack the whip himself.
tj, just for you.
$1121
Backing off.
As long as the loan is performing and the borrower is credit worthy. Sounds good, but it is actually pretty easy to make a loan perform with a mod. As an example, say a CRE loan is for $100 million, with payments of $8 million per year. The building is only worth $80 million and the cash flow is $5 million (not enough to cover the payments). Why not just modify the loan with a low interest rate for a few years - and hope the value returns? Win -win. The owner keeps the building (and maybe a little cash flow), and the bank takes no write down. The examiners are supposed to catch some of this stuff - but who knows if they will.
best wishes
CR wrote:
Heehee, it's funny that the commentariat's snarkiness seems to be wearing off on CR, at least once in a while
Yeah ... I wasn't sure who to credit, but that is definitely from the comments!
best wishes
mp wrote:
It's just putting the fork down after gorging on thanksgiving dinner. That doesn't mean it's not up for dessert.
"prudent"
I'm sure they could have found other words more suited to describe this.
"And hope the value returns" Sounds like a plan to me. Eventually that Sunglasses Hut will be worth more.
noob goldberg wrote:
After all real eaters have a second stomach - one just for desert!
noob goldberg wrote:
Since Silver and Platinum aren't moving up along with Gold, I'm going to have to buy into the Gold
school of thought more than wealth preservation school of thought. Gold is only within 250-275 of Platinum, and Silver hasn't begun to approach 20 USD/oz.
.
I would be very nervous if I was holding Gold paper at the moment and would be planning multiple exit routes when it starts back down. My only question is which will have a blowoff top first: S&P or Gold paper?
dryfly wrote:
As an aside, I read the last thread but didn't really get a chance to comment. I appreciated your frank report of your world, and I wish you the best of luck. You've also inspired me to continue my project, and I'll update you if any good (or even bad) results from it.
"My only question is which will have a blowoff top first: S&P or Gold paper? "
Please let me know when you have the answer.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Do yo think they will be told to specifically NOT look for this kind of thing? The old... "Its hard to understand something if your livelihood depends on you not understanding it" thing? Not trying to be all
but it sometimes seems these things aren't accidents.
What we need is some good old inflation to cover this all up...
Let's say a 5:1 split on the US dollar. Then I can get paid 5X my current salary.. Gas will be $15 a gallon, but my mortgage will be easy to pay off with 5X the income!
"The examiners are supposed to catch some of this stuff - but who knows if they will."
My understanding is that the examiners are complicit in this accounting fraud. But I could be mistaken....
yagij wrote:
I caught myself repeating this thought last week, and then I remembered what happened last summer/fall. Gold and the S&P are only inversely correlated until they aren't.
Uh, oh. Sounds like a transformer at the local substation just toasted.
Power went out.
Back up.
"Let's say a 5:1 split on the US dollar. Then I can get paid 5X my current salary.. Gas will be $15 a gallon, but my mortgage will be easy to pay off with 5X the income!"
This would work out well for me under one condition. Will I be able to get a job at 5X current salary?
It's not reflected in word counts yet, either.
Trend Search
The odds are good that it's a relatively small number of buyers doing big volume.
12th Percentile wrote:
Sure thing. You see as part of the "American Inflation Act of 2009", EVERY job will become unionized and your new salary will be fixed at 5X your old salary. Now your company is probably going to fail using union labor (cough - GM - cough) but that's okay cause you'll get a bailout. Too BIG too fail!
any experience in the oil industry?
The Gold conversation is fascinating, but I view it similarly to NCAA Basketball
It's an incredibly long season so instead of watching all of the games I possibly can, I follow the overview and hang out 'til March Madness.
My thought as to S&P vs Gold blowoff is that both will move upwards as dollar tanks. But the governments will be responding longer than the individual companies can so Gold will last longer.
Comment as to the value of trade schools. Theoretically, they're the route that we need to go as a country. Unfortunately, they've been the butt of jokes for a generation and it's going to take years/decades to overcome that bias. Until we can start seeing TV dramas in which the heroic engineers bring a new product to market ahead of the dastardly competition, then it's an uphill climb.
why not use FHA instead of PMI? with FHA no one is responsible
energyecon wrote:
You mean like a rig pig? Or a fluffer?
The FHA gets to make up accounting rules?
Your company will also fail using unregulated bonuses. (With a much, much, much bigger bailout.)
It's not reflected in word counts yet, either.
Trend Search
The odds are good that it's a relatively small number of buyers doing big volume.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Walmart?
12th Percentile wrote:
There was a ZH article talking about the market cap of the gold market (physical) and its contracts market (paper). Both are barely comparable to companies like Microsoft and completely dwarfed against the USG's debt and world's debt as a whole. The shallow nature makes me think that it may truly be the possibility of funneling Niagara Falls through a garden hose. Unfortunately, I don't see a disruption of the gold paper market causing all paper markets to go down unless it is used to funnel more leverage into an over-leveraged market?
.
I'm completely unsure, but I'd bet Gold popping before the S&P if just because the physical is totally disconnected from the paper games.
Ha.
I don't know but it's not reflected in the major gold stocks, either, that I can see.
"no cap gains.
all ordinary income."
so, you pay your marginal rate on the appreciation of the currency (gold)? /shaking head. i'll say it, again. the physical medal is useful when you can trade with it. you will trade with it when the USD collapses. like, weimar republic collapses. what does the commentariat estimate the odds are of this happening in the next 12 months?
zero point zero
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Just a few years ago, when I heard "Perform" and "mod" I thought that it was yet another person wanting to buy my factory-spec Honda Civic so they could put a new engine and a nitrous kit in it.
I have been doing LTV scatter charts for awhile now mapping the change in loan types and down payments.
Here is the latest:
Effective Demand: Ventura County Loan To Value Chart - August 2009
Here is one comparing seperate months in the OC in 2006 vs 2009:
Effective Demand: Orange County Loan To Value comparison, July 2006 to April 2009
If it wasn't for government sponsored high value lending AND low interest rates caused by QE AND the choking of supply from the market it is clear we would be at a much much lower price level.The whole housing market is propped up by the government, at every level.
I used to follow the PMs but not for the past year or two.
The gold spike sure seems odd.
I'm not seeing it reflected in other areas that I'd expect.
I'm tempted to think it's being manipulated to try and force a shakeout or panic.
2012?
The U.S. Lunatic Asylum (i.e., Economy) Is Facing Approximately $15 Trillion In Roll Risk By 2012 | zero hedge
Problem is, you need a manufacturing policy to go with them.
in some circles in DC, manufacturing is a relic of barbarous times, just like the precious. look at who's been charge of restructuring the auto industry. Steve Rattner (financier), Brian Deese (the 31 year old law student), etc.
RockyR wrote:
After having kids I've learned that 12 months is really just a blink of an eye, so I'd put the odds fairly low at a Wiemar situation within a year. However, that doesn't mean there won't be a bit of shock and awe within that same timeframe, just that it'll hold together. I have a feeling my two-year-old will be heading into high school before some of what is predicted here may come to pass.
I'm just more certain of the probability of it occurring now, than I am about the timeline.
Effective Demand wrote:
And there is a nice curve of loans right at the traditional conforming limit.
if that's all you got...no
"any experience in the oil industry?"
No, other than not getting a job with schlumberge (sp?) right out of college like a friend did. Or, foolishly not listening to my other friend who is a professor of petroleum extraction or some sort of thing who told me no one knows where the price of oil will go but he advised me to buy it at $35 because that was a no brainer. I bought at $50. And stopped out soon thereafter. So, I guess I do have experience but it ain't good.
I'm expecting Oil will play a very big part in my investing in the next 20 years.
nice catch broward.
bullion however, is showing a pretty good correlation with big ass drops in the S&P...
Google Trends: bullion
12th Percentile wrote:
What in the hell is "gold paper?"
Nonsense. The gold market is like the stock market; filled with rational actors who determine the price efficiently.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Clarification for my part: When I talk about "Gold", I mean implicitly mean its paper market. Once it becomes apparent that its value is disconnected to reality or worse that it isn't tied to a way to put gold in your hands, I think people will run for the doors and crush the paper's value. I do not foresee the physical side being liquidated before the paper side. In sum, my Out-Of-My-Arse guess would be Gold paper > Equity paper > Gold physical if I had to arrange just those three types.
dryfly - that's great news. I hope your situation is a true trend. Maybe we will look back on this period and say - I remember just when that terrible recession started to lift - dryfly's business picked up, and after that, everyone's business seemed to pick up.
Keep us posted on whether or not you see this as an isolated event, or a real shift.
rich wrote:
Contracts. Derivatives. Stuff that says its represents a physical gold reserve somewhere, but as far as the average retail investor is concerned, it is strictly paper.
sdtfs - not only that, the gold market also is clairvoyant, the information gleaned from its seeing into the future accurately reflected by the current price, just like any other market.
Rich
I didn't write "gold paper". (Kcoop, glitch!) But my dad used to carve signs from wood for businesses and then line the letters with Gold Leaf. Perhaps that is gold paper.
Thing is, when you whack the gold mole, you can break your club.
What in the hell is "gold paper?"
i think they eat it in india.
some investor guy wrote:
Yeah, in my older post I used to mark up the charts and add some analysis so you could see the areas where PMI was being eliminated or the conventional ceiling raised, etc. But I don't that much anymore. There is a that huge gap above 80% LTV where there is very little conventional lending, It is almost all FHA/VA now. That is the private mortgage insurers not underwriting much new business (especially in CA).
Oh my God! This whole economy is a giant Ponzi scheme, isn't it?
When the contrarians appear correct, they aren't contrarians.
W.C. Varones wrote:
OMG no, there are, like, people in charge, and stuff.
are people panning for gold in Zimbabwe any different than all the people in America who live off of nickle deposits?
welcome, to the real world...
I can't talk about this anymore without becoming extremely angry. I'm fed up with all of them. The sons of bitches are going to learn in spades that you don't add value by slicing and dicing paper.
You add value by creating, and a lot of that creating is called "stuff."
Again, I recomment to the commentariat the IEA executive summary and fact sheet from their World Energy Outlook 2009
Executive Summary
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2009/WEO2009_es_english.pdf
Fact Sheet
http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2009/fact_sheets_WEO_2009.pdf
Some significant dots to connect there...
energyecon wrote:
Isn't that the Peak Oil? US badgered reports to be over-optimistic? information?
Okay, I got it now. This is not a time you want to be short that stuff, unless you can lay your hands on "gold physical" to cover. Part of the relentless accumulation you are seeing may be traders who are heavily short gold paper trying to manage an exit. Not unlike traders who are short stocks having to buy back in a squeeze.
Why would that be negative for gold?
mp, i think you'd like ayn rand
btw, i agree with you.
12th Percentile wrote:
You may just hit a good pan for the gold. You will never just hit a good "nickle" in interest?
i think they eat it in india.
You know, I got married in India into an Indian family. And the highest honor they can show is to serve you that (gold paper) for dessert. And I just couldn't get it down.
Read them, and draw your own conclusions with respect to their statement that they see OECD conventional oil production peaking in 2010...what is the value of imperfect information (any other students of decision analysis out there?)?
mp - don't get too angry. A guy your age needs to think about blood pressure. Hope you got a stairmaster with all that gold. In order to lower your blood pressure I can tell you I'm a former Obama supporter. I voted for Obama over McCain for one reason. "I don't think he will bomb Iran". That was the only difference I saw between the two but since there are a lot of nice families in Iran, who's kids don't need to get a in person introduction to White Phosphorus, that was enough. With what is happening in Afghanistan, i no longer believe that.
Particularly fruitful garbage can after a party or picnic.
edit: beverage container deposits, not bank deposits
this was fairly logical, until i got to the part about global warming.
How many people here know that the Sony Trinitron was invented by RCA?
Just curious.
Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out - Telegraph
energyecon wrote:
My conclusion has been "Reality is a b^tch", and that "b^tch" is getting festy, cagey, and angry.
.
TPTB are playing with a financial nuclear reaction, and for some reason, they are all playing for time just so they don't have to be the first one to panic. However after that first heart card is played, whoever is holding the queen b^tch spade will throw it as soon as possible.
rich, down a couple slammers of goldschlager for good measure. same effect: shiny poo.
RockyR wrote:
ROFLMAO!!!
Yeah, I pretty much blow through the GHG stuff there myself - I think the emerging exigent circumstances are going to moot most all of that - the material about the investments that are required vs. the investments that are occurring and where the oil production growth is supposed to occur are the meat on that bone...
How many know that the first radio was invented by an Indian?
Ayn Rand? Fuck him too. That's right, I said 'him'.
mp wrote:
How many people know the quartz watch was invented by Swatch?
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
That man had the biggest breasts I've ever seen.
I do. US invented bubblejets, flat screens, and what the heck, the grand daddy of them all, transistors.
"Ayn Rand? Fuck him too. That's right, I said 'him'.
That man had the biggest breasts I've ever seen."
silicone
In some cases, imperfect information may actually lead to a worse outcome than would total ignorance of reality. You can't expect linear causality (which is pretty much what every argument from 'fundamentals' amounts to) to apply to an open, nonlinear system except in short-term and temporary islands of stability.
energyecon wrote:
I think it's relevant, but I also think it was necessary. I have a few acquaintances in the oil sands and the level of 2007-2008 'investment' created a climate that could only be labelled 'absurd'. A few dry years will be healthy to focus operations and R&D activities so that investment is actually channelled somewhere productive.
RockyR,
I am sure the Uzbeckis down the block, and the Bulgarian who lives across the street from my father declare all of the their cash income to the IRS, and in addition, pay the current rate on their inflation gains in gold and euros.
And, if you believe that, I have some oceanfront property here in Arizona at 5200 foot elevation.
Someday this war's gonna end...
My point is that these goddamned pointy head bean counters who have come to run US corporations sold us out.
They sold the damned technology because, in their infinite bean counting wisdom, they could make more money selling the technology than they could by making the shit.
I know. I was there when some of it happened.
how many people know about Filo T Pharnsworth? And how he got screwed by a corporation
Philo Taylor Farnsworth (August 19, 1906 – March 11, 1971) was an American inventor. He is best known for inventing the first fully electronic television system, including the first working electronic image pickup device (video camera tube), and for being the first to demonstrate fully electronic television to the public.
"And, if you believe that, I have some oceanfront property here in Arizona at 5200 foot elevation."
Allen,
I didn't know the ocean went that high. When can we schedule a showing?
I was under the impression that foreign manufacturers just reverse-engineer our products anyway? (and copy them, I mean)
it's gotten to the point where investing time and energy into inventing is almost not worth it.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Indeed, but most all information of any real value is imperfect, so you have to start somewhere.
noob - therein lies the rub of reality...
Anytime you want- after all it is owned by a pirate, arrrrgh matey.
It was at the bottom of an ocean 210 million years ago.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Henry Ford invented the wheel.
The trinitron was not the type of tube you could put together without a lot of know-how, and it had a far superior picture than conventional color tubes.
RCA had the know-how to manufacture it, but Sarnoff, Jr (bastard) didn't want to bother with it because it had to be assembled in a clean room environment.
Oh, that was too much trouble. Not enough profit.
So, Sarnoff, Jr. (bastard), in his infinite wisdom sold a license to Sony.
And Sony put RCA out of the television business.
Outsider wrote:
Will do - someday I might even write a case study about this whole affair. Been stranger than I can report here how it has unfolded - some real lessons learned. Not done yet either. When dealing with huge multi-nationals its never over.
mp wrote:
I know a few of us have batted around the idea that taking even a portion of the TARP funds and funneling them toward large, capital and R&D-intensive public projects would provide a new footing for the next generation's economy and potentially make both research and manufacturing sexy again. Unfortunately, this demands a level of political adventurism, courage, and foresight that appears to be lacking.
mp wrote:
You can't eat the money.
Where's dryfly? Reverse engineering isn't as successful as acquiring the technology. I'm guessing because you're trying to build a complex product in isolation. Like trying to build a radio on a desert island.
Edit: I think that's also part of mp's beef with the Chinese acquisition of high tech machine tools.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
You run the best analysis you can, and cross your fingers. In this way we're little different than our prehistoric ancestors, except we use Excel.
one 30 foot section of drill pipe weighs 600lbs.
CLF- nuf said
When they get cold and hungry, and they will, they'll wish they'd had a little more foresight.
"The FIRE is life. The FIRE is light. All things are FIRE. The FIRE is all things."
- Aspirant's chant, from the Catechism of Central Banking
sdtfs wrote:
They do somewhat but it is actually more perverse than that - our multi-nationals TEACH them to reverse engineer our products then are SHOCKED when they do it. And want IP protection long after the secrets are out.
Tinkering Makes Comeback Amid Crisis - WSJ.com
The American tradition of tinkering -- the spark for inventions from the telephone to the Apple computer -- is making a comeback, boosted by renewed interest in hands-on work amid the economic crisis and falling prices of high-tech tools and materials.
The modern milling machine, able to shape metal with hairbreadth precision, revolutionized industry. Blake Sessions has one in his dorm room, tucked under the shelf with the peanut butter on it.
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology junior has been using the mill to make prototypes for a bicycle-sprocket business he's planning. He bolts down a piece of aluminum plate, steps to his desk and, from his computer, sets the machine in motion.
"In this way we're little different than our prehistoric ancestors, except we use Excel."
Exactly. It's hard enough even without personal investment in the outcome, deliberate misinformation, propaganda and political concerns that trump objectivity. Add those factors and even "simple" problems quickly become intractable.
mp wrote:
It might happen yet. People will put up with present discomfort if they think the future will be brighter.
Currently we're chasing the past, which leads to nothing more than social depression, but I do believe that politicians still possess the power to inspire a country and give it hope. We just haven't seen it in a while, so we forget what it looks like.
noob, you have a keen ability to miss the big picture - the oil sands are a side show with respect to the global scene - while material, and will be producing hydrocarbons long after other areas have been pumped dry, the inherent limits on the ability to ramp up production relegate them to a supporting role, not a lead...
Basically, four new Saudi Arabia's need to be developed in the next twenty or so years to meet the baseline scenario growth requirements and the scale of investments that is predicated on is not occurring at this time (~$1.1 trillion/year). The resources to accomplish this don't exist in the OECD, and the access and incentives to achieve it don't exist outside it (with some raising questions regarding the sufficiency of the resource base to get there without access and investment constraints).
I'm tinkering with a currency.
And that Basel, is why I love this country. There are youngsters with some drive.
Not relating to mfg, but know of a teen who bought out a supply of porn videos online @$5/movie and then sold them out of his car trunk in the high school parking lot @ $10/movie.
energyecon wrote:
Meh.
It's contained.
"how many people know about Filo T Pharnsworth?"
Isn't he the professor on Futurerama?
Basel Too - outstanding!
The 80s were like that too - economically it was a disaster zone but tinkerers sprouted up in garages all over. I hope like hell there are more out there like Blake Sessions. I'm betting there are.
our multi-nationals TEACH them to reverse engineer our products then are SHOCKED when they do it
My impression (once again) was that the foreign manufacturers have gotten sophisticated enough that they are pretty well able to reverse engineer our stuff. If I'm wrong, that would be great.
THAT is a good thing. Good note to end the evening.
Uhhh, what titles does he have left?
That young guy with the cute little mill should have called me. I could have set him up with a real mill for half of what he paid for that toy.
Of course, it also would have caved in his dormitory floor, but...
It's good. I'm glad they're doing something.
A secular trend in progress... From Rosenberg:
... For the first time in at least six decades, private sector employment is negative on a 10-year basis (first turned negative in August). Hence, the changes are not merely cyclical or short-term in nature. Many of the jobs created between the 2001 and 2008 recessions were related either directly or indirectly to the parabolic extension of credit. ...
Hard Core Bankster
I Am Curious Gold
The Central Banker and Miss Jones
Timmy Does Dallas
Can't keep up with you alternate time zoners. Zzzzz.
"However after that first heart card is played, whoever is holding the queen b^tch spade will throw it as soon as possible. "
Playing right into GS hand, as they are trying to shoot the moon.
Oh, also forgot "Behind the Fed Door" and "BILF"
FWIW the small computer shop I help run (service manager) is doing the best business since opening in 1998 (one of four locations). We sell service repair Macs but do plenty of PCs too.
"Flight to quality" or value based purchasing seems to be driving sales - MS Vista sold more Macs for us than ever before. Service and repair are up because we're Apple authorized (warranty work) and because we've sold lots of Macs over the years.
We're in the college town state capitol in one of the flat states west of the Missouri. Economy good even if state leg is in special session right now trying to cut budget.
I have 20+ years on the Mac, last 10 selling and repairing them. Much more satisfying than white collar professional services I did before. Routinely tell young people to hit the local CC, get a two year degree/certificate in some trade (even IT esp. networking and security) because people who can genuinely fix stuff get hired and paid regularly.
Just my snapshot of Econ 2009 in the good ol US of A.
Yeah, well Gutenberg reverse-engineered the press after Marco Polo brought back paper from China.
... For the first time in at least six decades, private sector employment is negative on a 10-year basis (first turned negative in August). Hence, the changes are not merely cyclical or short-term in nature. Many of the jobs created between the 2001 and 2008 recessions were related either directly or indirectly to the parabolic extension of credit. ...
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Fortunately for me, I missed that one.
Outsider wrote:
They can do some of it but they don't have all the tricks ironed out. The so called 'tribal knowledge' on the factory floor. What is disappointing is our own companies then go set up shop overseas bring the 'tribal knowledge' with them... teach the locals over there how to do it... then discover those locals then leave & go work for somebody else and take the knowledge with them.
There is nothing as dangerous as a human mind.
Most of the job loss from 'foreign competition' didn't come from foreign companies - it comes from western based multi-nationals locating in foreign 'low cost countries'... and exporting products made there back into the US, EU - etc. Little of the benefit sticks with them little goes to most of us. A few benefit massively.
I have no problem with foreign exports into the US - I work with some, good people - we all need to work & eat - but there has to be some balance and shared gain. The last ten to twenty years it hasn't lived up to promises here or there... we lost jobs, they got stuck with dodgy debt. Broken all the way around. That has to be fixed or there will be hell to pay.
energyecon wrote:
I'm naturally contrarian in Internet forums which--when faced with a well-versed opponent--usually requires me to take on an inferior argument. This is probably why I always appear so vapid in this forum
Of course oil sand, shale, etc are only going to be a side-show; however, the only contacts I have are in the oil-sands, so my assumption was that investment in conventional extraction tech when prices were >$120bbl were becoming similarly frothy. But, of course, this is an anecdotal connection in which I'm certainly willing to concede is incorrect.
As for the overall energy picture, your earlier comment regarding decision analysis using suboptimal information is completely apt, especially when dealing with Saudi estimates (from what I've been told). Energy security (or even availability) is bound to become a national priority within a few short years. As will food security, if we receive even one good sizable mid-western drought. Or financial regulation, if the whole works falls apart in the next 18 months. And that doesn't even account for black swans.
We've got our share of challenges in the next couple of decades, of that I'm certain.
dryfly wrote:
Gooing to be a bit of that however we get back in balance...
let's see, the MIs, who insure mortgage with LTVs over 80, are crumbling.
the FHA, which offers LTVs up to 96.5%, is facing record delinquencies.
pattern here?
Blue Guy:
Thanks for the update. It's what I'm starting to tell my kids...don't do the debt, but get productive.
Blue Guy Red State wrote:
Yes, nice to hear it. Still, we gotta be careful, there's a self selection bias to this blog.
Bank I'd Like to Fail?
Got stuff to do tomorrow...
Good luck in any currency.
"Yes, nice to hear it. Still, we gotta be careful, there's a self selection bias to this blog."
How so?
Don't forget the Japanese classic "Violent Squid - Bonus Attack!!". You know how the Japanese love their tentacles...
noob goldberg wrote:
And did I mention your gift for understatement?
Oh yeah, some of it was just as nutty though it was interesting to watch big oil, as it seemed like the majority of senior management recalled watching the movie and recalled how it ended...the capital budget increases were nothing like the price ramp. And the current capital spends are more like what we would see in a $40-$50 per barrel world for the big conventional projects, which are getting slow walked.
And to tie that back into the idea of making irreversible investment decisions under uncertainty, the only thing that we can be sure of is that things going forward will be different in some material ways...it seems to me that there are too many king hell big shocks that have rung the bell of the world and the reverbrations are going to be echoing around the world for years to come...with the possibility (high probability depending on POV) that what may be one of the biggest bell rings of all is just around the corner.
Where the heck is Rob Dawg to explain to you your confusion about the oil business and call you a Peakinese? The day he gives it up is the day I get really worried (already plenty worried as is).
heh, the Dawg is prolly just living some real life out on the left coast, and I need to do the same here on the middle coast...
RockyR wrote:
OK ... seriously ... we need a rolling eyes emoticon stat.
energyecon wrote:
Agreed, and I'd extend it to indicate that we're witnessing the demise of the multi-national conglomerate, at least for the next few decades. Sure, a number will continue to survive, but their forte is economies of scale during periods of stability that permit currency, regulatory, and input cost arbitrage. With an unstable global economy, their competitive advantage is eroding. What will replace it will be companies like dryfly's, which are smaller, more nimble, and able to duck in and out of opportunities due to less overhead.
This isn't all positive; the lack of volatility in the forex market (comparitively) from the early 1980's through to the mid 2000's permitted some people to live out almost an entire career with a stable dollar. This led to all sorts of distortions in the labour market, including offshoring jobs into low-cost countries. However, given the current period of forex volatility, who is going to go through the effort of off-shoring their call-center to India if the exchange rate moves 10 or 20% in a matter of weeks/months? Or invest millions in moving their manufacturing to Thailand if the bhat is not stable?
This also works the other way: employees may have to learn that opportunities in the employment market over the next few decades will be measured in months, not years. A six-month contract here, depending on exchange rates; a four month contract there, depending on factory orders. Piecemeal, until global adjustments are made and stability returns. Which I don't really expect to see before I'm quite old.
Here's but one example of what I'm talking about. Dial indicators.
Starrett is a name you may have heard. They're a manufacturer of machinist instruments.
Quality Precision Innovation... since 1880 - The L.S. Starrett Company
Here's a Swiss-made Compac:
042 : Compac waterproof small dial indicator
The Compac's guts are made of brass and tool steel. The damned things last forever. Many of the Starrett dial indicators, like Mitutoyo, have plastic components. They work great, for a short while, then you have to throw them away. I'll never buy another one.
In fact, some of the Chinese indicators are actually superior to the Starrett and Mitutoyo, even though they're made from plastic too. So I ask you, what the hell is going on?
Are the Swiss the only people who have any goddamned pride any more?
Or is it just about counting the beans? Well, I'm one guy who'll predict that Compac will be around a hell of a lot longer than Starrett.
Think about it.
With this recession in it's 22nd month, Obama and his administration looks increasingly paralysed and out of touch. And this is from someone who voted for him! Sometimes I wonder whether this country is too large and too diverse to be governed effectively. It's hard to imagine the nation uniting under any of it's current leaders, republican or democrat.
Our system was designed to be stable i.e. maintain the status-quo, the proof of which is the senate where bills go to die. Therefore we'll muddle along with things getting worse ...
My guess is that eventually, we'll have either an independent populist or an ex-general winning the presidency. The general because the military is one of the few institutions people still trust and whose funding continues to grow.
mp wrote:
mp, I realized it had gotten out of hand when I worked in construction. I'd pay $150-200 for a high-end 18V battery drill from a tool supplier. I happened to walk through Home Depot one day and saw the 'exact same drill' for half the price. So I picked one up also. The drills from the supplier usually lasted a year or more (we're talking heavy continuous use), whereas the one from HD died after a week. I figured it an anomoly, so I returned it, and the next one self destructed after another couple of weeks.
So I took it apart, and low and behold the drill company, I forget which one, had filled the guts of the Home Depot-sold drill with plastic, and the guts of the regular tool supplier with solid metal. I guess they figured the guy using the drill for screwing in a few sheets of drywall and punching a few holes would never notice the difference. But I sure did.
Extend that out a few years, and not enough people buy the high-end stuff to warrant production. And we all end up with crap.
EDIT: Wow, it's late.
A future of 4-month contracts kills the idea of the 30-year mortgage, at least at it's current income-to-debt ratio. Kiss RE prices good-bye for yet another reason.
noob goldberg wrote:
Gold Price Won’t Drop Below $1,000 an Ounce Again, Faber Says - Bloomberg.com
Buy now or be priced out forever! The price can only go up! They're not making any more, you know.
......I guess I hafta start panning again.....[sigh]....
broward wrote:
Additionally, what do you think it does to the savings rate? Or consumer spending?
That's it.
Finally, I want to rant about all of this "reverse engineering" crap by way of an example, albeit an "old fashioned" one. I use it because it demonstrates the complexity involved.
A typical master rod in a Pratt and Whitney radial engine has almost 200 machining operations before it is hand polished to a mirror finish to virtually eliminate stress risers. You don't just look at one and say "I can do this."
It takes a lot of know-how to plan the operations and come out with a master rod as opposed to a piece of junk.
It isn't as simple as looks. After all, technology comes from technos, technique.
doug r wrote:
There's irrational exuberance in them thar hills?
More green shoots
States May Cut 900,000 Jobs Without More U.S. Aid, Think Tank Says - Real Time Economics - WSJ
States May Cut 900,000 Jobs Without More U.S. Aid, Think Tank Says
Is
going through a short squeeze? 
" I can do this"
My Indian employer had several commercial products they wanted to push so I downloaded the source for one to use in a project. It's just not there. It took me about ten years to really understand OO design and IBMs products are quite sophisticated. Indians are an order of magnitude behind.
"They're not making any more, you know."
Good thing they keep making plenty of dollars...
OT: Is there any interest in local meetings over a beverage?
I'm in the Portland metro area have sent inquiries to those who have let everyone know they are in the PDX area and have listed contact info. I'm partial to some place like The Lucky Lab brewpub because I can bring my kid. Anyone interested can send me an email and I'll try a to organize it. Other locations will need local volunteers. The holidays are coming up...
Bullshit you lying scumbag.
"Bullshit you lying scumbag. ."
He knows who signs his paycheck.. Just like Yun at NAR. Anyone who takes trade groups at face value is fooling themselves. It is a shame that the smaller financial institutions have not banded together as well to provide an alternate view. But to be fair, it is not entirely their fault, If congress was not so willing to pad the profits of those who fill the campaign coffers.
getting quiet, guess it's
time
Bought a Starrett tape measure, POS. It damaged my view of what to expect from them.
18V tools, hmmm, can't say that I have tried them all, the Ryobi from HD works and I can set it down without falling over, so that's okay by me. Quit DeWalt/B&D when they started playing with battery sizes and compatibility, don't like much of their stuff anyway. Stopped buying Sears after a drill and a router both had parts break (I bought replacement parts and fixed them) but gave up because the parts were 'sintered' metal,...little metal beads stuck together,...maybe there's a way to do it right, but these weren't done right.
The cheap jigsaw and small grinder from Harbor Freight do the job for the occasional use, but I wouldn't trust the drill or the reciprocating saw. Yeah, I'm part of the reason the overall tool quality is down. I do like some of the Skil saw line, but the tool manufacturers redesign every year and if you find one you like, it's gone the next time you need one.
No one is lobbying for the bagholder, so I
out loud.
mp
I think in a previous thread you made it clear that you would not invest in GS even though you might profit handsomely off the trade.
Last year I was introduced to this blog by chance while staying on a former French prison island awaiting my 'in the bag' marriage.
Bored, I took this satanic looking hippie from the east village in NYC and included him in my 10th vid mash-up where I incorporated some audio effects to make him sound he was speaking from hell. the subtitles were all about Alt-A loans (which I knew nothing about) and the verbiage was lifted from a uber-geeky explanation written by none other than the late, lamented Tanta.
To the point... my education was such here that when GS hit 99 a share I told friends with experience to short it down to 50 and then it will bounce and ride it up again. As for me I never took part in the action, I was very ambivalent about Goldman if not downright hostile.
I regret that I did not take my money and double or triple it. Why?
Because when it comes to my art - these days it's primarily finishing my short story collection in the works now for almost 10 years (4 years of a black asian hole didn't help) since I don't have a Medici as a patron I am self financing and the clock is not on my side - now or never.
You may argue that that is wrong but I say to you most great Renaissance artists received patronage from the Catholic Church at times when they were even more corrupt than Goldman. To quote Schindler 'sometimes you have to shake hands with the devil"
....
ps: I do respect your moral integrity mp. had Fassbinder not broken into a building and stolen his first camera where would those great works of art be today..?
....
I finally reduced the big shoot out scene in the Guggenheim NYC in The International starring Clive Owen from 10+ minutes to a mere 50 seconds, not only did I add Spanish music from Welles broadcast of War of the Worlds but I also layered in tracks of a MP 60 machine gun a la Brian May. YouTube - Die Arty Hardy! Bloody Gun Battle @ Guggenheim NYC w Clive Owen & Naomi Watts & MachineGun Fire
Blackhalo-didn't mean to be gone so long, but family pulled me away.
When I said self selection bias, I meant everyone here believes in "doing" and not just drinking in front of the TV. We're not a normal group of people by a long shot. But the people who aren't blogging here are actually the ones who (by their actions) control what going on. Perhaps 'control' is too strong a word. So just swapping stories doesn't mean we'll understand what's happening, because of our biases.
Love that Fassbinder.
Hitting up the Marg. Mead Fest this wknd at Nat Hist
. Docs galore.
FOX news at its best:
Video: Sean Hannity Uses Glenn Beck's Protest Footage | The Daily Show | Comedy Central
"fair and balanced", Hmmmmm
1 Currency
back in the early 90s I was dating this anthropologist Dr Charlotte Cerf who dragged me to the Margaret Mead festival since 3 years before they had shown her doc about Bahia in Brazil and how industrial pollution was killing off the fish the indigenous people depended on.
it cost her about 90k and it was financed on a loan against a house she owned. shot in B/W beautifully and a real pro on VO.funny title Black Water...!
great festival! usually I don't like docs from say rabble rousers like Moore, et al, (met him once and he;s a real pr*ck. )
ps: she was a great catch and wanted something like marriage but like usual I had my head up my a**
With peak oil having failed to materialize AGAIN the 'Peakers' are resorting to the tried and trusted.. 'it's all a CONSPIRACY to hide the truth'
~splat
The Amazon is fed by two main sources, one of which is the Rio Negro (Black River). The Rio Negro is clear but heavily tinted by humic acid and tannins from the forest, while the Amazon carries a load of silt and looks white or light tan in comparison. A whole lot of tropical fish come from the Rio Negro.
edit: In order to reproduce the water chemistry, one manufacturer sells "Black Water Tonic", never thought how odd that sounds until now.
re-edit: I guess they thought was odd too, now it's Blackwater Extract
World Environment News - A Man Dives At The Confluence Point Between The Rio Negro And The Rio Solimoes, Near The City Of Manaus, In The Heart Of The Brazilian Amazon Basin - Planet Ark
Moore is agit-prop, but he doesn't try to hide it at least. He lost me when he sold out Nader.
States still in the crap... ahem, fiscal positions are a lagging indicator:
Additional Federal Fiscal Relief Needed to Help States Address Recession’s Impact — Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
C
gold post for Asia-o-clock!
Reuters.com
Bespoke Investment Group: Gold Compared to Silver and Platinum
state budget problems have even made the gossip rags, CNN had an article on it apparently
What's that? Budget problems you say,...hooooooocoodanode?
if anyone in Asia right now reads this, could you please extend one or both middle fingers in the direction of Beijing on my behalf?
they officially shut down Caijing and deserve no less
Shipping, then:
Maersk Shares Drop After Wider-Than-Estimated Loss on Cargo - Bloomberg.com
DryShips Inc.
Big tubs still virtually idle.
C
sdtfs
makes you wonder how long until PGBC becomes a headline, virtually all the doomlines discussed have materialized
Countries to be hurt by shipping losses
Germany, South Korea, China, Denmark, Greece, Netherlands
lots of pretending going on
There is no such thing as a win-win
it's called a tie
It may never be a headline. Not that there won't be huge problems, but unless they can't pay benefits at some point, we can comfortably ignore the problem until that happens. Given a lack of other news, it would be a headline now! But again, there's a lot of things closer (in an in-your-face kind of way) to worry about.
My brother asked what I thought would happen with the stock market a few months ago, and I said I don't know, but if there's a nice big sharp rise, that's the last gasp before the depression. I'm thinking of the experience of 1933, where the recovery proved false and everyone lost hope.
Wow, it always looks crazy to me when I write it out (and I rarely voice it), but I don't see how it doesn't happen. Still, something like 75 percent still had jobs so, maybe living through it is way different than you expect.
Only if there's a contest,...if your aims are different, you can both win,...alternatively, you can both lose and that's a tie, too. I don't think they're equivalent positions.
speaking of yesteryear prognostications, the AMA just renounced opposition to medical marijuana and will now support it's use
it was a borrowed joke, but there is truth
if you call it a win, then there must be a corresponding loser somewhere out there
whether it is doing a task more efficiently, or something like staking a claim for a mine
losing encourages losers to find new games to play that they can win at
since this is an RE centered blog I was just listening to a radio play titled The Day Lehman Died (on NPR) by Matthew Solon.
in this scene banker Scott the cynic who obviously doesn't think they're doing God's work lashes out here excerpt :
Scott: Some sales guy, some guy selling mortgages goes to Rust Belt America to a run down street where hope died a couple of generations ago [another character makes a sneering reference to Steinbeck] and this sales guy sells his prospect whose only income is a welfare check and a handful of loose change for stacking shelves in some scum bag liquor store the sales guy sells this guy whose credit rating is so subprime its touching bottom five miles down in the Mariana trench in the friggin’ Pacific Ocean he sells this guy a mortgage. . ""
he then proceeds to skewer them for the way they cut them up in CDOs, etc...
besides being Mamet derivative this dramatic take doesn't guite jive with the facts does it? Rustbelt, i.g.
Not only that, it steals directly from the "Long Johns" (that British duo who pose as banker and interviewer) who used a guy sitting on a porch in Alabama,...they must have moved it to make it less racially sensitive.
YouTube - Subprime crisis explanation by The Long Johns
In the Rust Belt they sold them on re-fi's.
That's why they didn't think they were bubble states, and they were immune to the mortgage meltdown.
Oh that is good. The comments suggest it's from October 2007. Very nice.
C
oops
talking out of school
dryfly wrote:
Those who succeed in having long and upwardly mobile careers in any government agency have two things in mind: Don't make waves, and cover your ass until retirement. Actual results, such as contributing to your agencies stated mission are often counterproductive and irrelevant.
=> TABLE-Russian gold/frx reserves rise to $433.9 bln <=
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 1:11 am
if anyone in Asia right now reads this, could you please extend one or both middle fingers in the direction of Beijing on my behalf?
they officially shut down Caijing and deserve no less
Is "The Finger" subject to inverse-square laws?
I've always assumed near-field, regardless of the distance
"Those who succeed in having long and upwardly mobile careers in any government agency have two things in mind: Don't make waves, and cover your ass until retirement."
That pretty much describes American work culture in bigger companies? Do what you are told to and nothing else, do not take extra responsibility or be innovative because if you fail, you will be fired straightaway. Nobody likes whistle blowers. Never ever go around your boss to his boss. If somebody asks how are you doing, everything is always damn FINE! Straight out of the Dilbert comics except nobody is laughing anymore because of constant FEAR of losing their jobs. Strict command pyramid, even much stricter than in Europe.
LoserBeachBum wrote:
Pretty much.
You won't find many people that will admit it, though, even to themselves. My experience is that it's especially bad with the Gen-x-ers because many of them were raised on the "survival of the fittest' mentality.
broward wrote:
and its sad because as us older folks know, no one is irreplaceable. It doesn't matter how efficient, hard working, brown nosing, back-stabbing you are, when it comes to cost cutting, no one is safe. Thats a
for the stock market, corp earnings and evidence of the recession ending while working schmucks deal with the reality of a 'depression'.
This is how that paradigm shift in society will occur. Attitudes which have added fuel to the fire of blaming people for their misfortunes not of their making because of that 'survival of the fittest' will result in a whole new class of the unfortunate. Karma is a biatch.
OT: Hello. I've been a lurker for a few years now...
*re - thread: Economic Outlook: Possible Upside Surprises, Downside Risks...EEngineer wrote: 'Is there any interest in local meetings over a beverage?'
*
I am interested in a local meeting. I'm in the SoCal/Inland Empire area.
Phil Gramm speaks
Bow down and worship! Does anyone know where he lives so I can pay proper homage? 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601127&sid=az7AcisnxsCA
.......
......
nanoo
ubs would have been one of those institutions that would have failed.
welcome to the asylum
Don't you know gabyjan there is some well hidden beer distribution money under Mr. Gramm's watchful eye there and exempted from the FBI/IRS names list in the large tax evasion case.
nanoo
it took a moment but now let me see if i have the right end of the stick, could this beer distribution money in a one of the desert states? maybe say two states right of cali?
Indeed gabyjan, and 7 estates around and about for good measure. Beer and real-estate, what more could you ask for, oh wait, there's more...wink, wink.
"This is how that paradigm shift in society will occur. Attitudes which have added fuel to the fire of blaming people for their misfortunes not of their making because of that 'survival of the fittest' will result in a whole new class of the unfortunate. Karma is a biatch."
Those born this decade are and will be seeing their GenX parents failing and badly. Real "riches" to rags. Their life is not going to be one unique fairytale (like their parents told them) and they will probably experience very harsh teenage years, a real culture shock. In other words, their parents are full of shit
Just like boomers in the 60's started to revolt against their childhood 50's regimented and militaristic world.
Some of the leaders might come from wised up GenX/Y but the real revolution foot soldiers will come from children of this decade.
nanoo
i got the right end of the stick! and if things had went differently last nov, mr gramm would had gov job. and he STILL protecting them? i say them cause its wife's money. gramm must think that whatshisname might still be able to give him gov job. and the fbi/irs dont know anything about this, they do now .sic em boys.
gabyjan and Nanoo, I dislike the man as much or more than you do. I think the policies that he pushed through Congress caused huge financial costs to us, the tax payers, and we will pay for them for generations. But I don't know of any indication that he avoided taxes. If he did, he should be investigated, and he should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
kidbuck
about working in the government I agree, back in the late 90s I worked for Dept of Health NYC
on this disease tracking system - yes, I was a developer post '95, sadly - and I was told by the Deputy
Commish that you can not be fired working for NYC unless you do something that's felonious, in actuality
you can be fired but it takes almost 3 years of attempted re-training. what usually happens is you get shuffled
off to another dept. the downside to working for the city is almost no advancement.
Never happen gaby-this is the uber-elite insulated class that have led this nation for two decades, doesn't matter which party. Clinton signed off on all of it and included welfare to work. He also granted the Chinese 'most favored nation' status and began the material DUMP on the USA. traderwalt-of course there will be no 'evidence', do you really think that pandora's box will be opened, this is international, not national? I'm extrapolating as we've seen other examples that hint at it.
Last night I produced a link regarding how broker/dealers manipulate commodities markets and in particular oil. This was made possible by Gramm's CFMA (Commodities Futures Modernization Act) attached at the 11th hour to a must pass bill that was 9,000 pages long. It created the now infamous Enron loophole but it goes much deeper than that too. Goldman-Sachs, Merrill and those 'futures traders' make billions and billions trading paper in the futures market. They also physically store oil. This year, oil is stored off shore in the gulf and elsewhere that there is currently a shortage of places to put it. In bad winters, they will release heating oil and sell it for a very high premium. Last year, people in the north suffered and badly.
Olympia Snowe's state of Maine is one of those regions. She knows as I listened to testimony where she was present regarding the Enron loophole and the CFMA by former CFTC chair Greenberger who resigned in 1999 when it passed. He was so angry he was shaking during testimony. Snows state is poor, people were buying heating oil only during the coldest of nights (there that's sub zero). They couldn't afford to fill their oil tanks, so delivery wasn't possible, they were buying oil by going to the distributor 5 gals at a time. Little press was made over this as our media is pathologically myopic.
In testimony before congress last year, the big 3 oil companies executives reported over a TRILLION in profits just in the first 6 months. Those CEOs said they didn't know what their salaries were, their faces that of Cheshire cats.
Shame, shame and more shame.
Broader U-6 Unemployment Rate Hits 17.5%
Broader U-6 Unemployment Rate Hits 17.5% - Real Time Economics - WSJ
Excellent 'heat map' graphic of the U-3 rate as well as some verbiage on U-6, but the graphic should get some attention as it makes visual how fast the rate of change that we experienced in the unemployment rate going up...and we are still at the front end of realizing the impacts.
Duke... you can be fired but it takes almost 3 years of attempted re-training.
How many psychiatrists does it take to change a light bulb?
One. But it takes a long time, and the bulb has to really want to change.
Welcome to the loony bin, passer_joie. Care to share your perspective of the IE?
Greenberger's testimony. Have a good single-malt by your side when you listen to it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbdtTGYQBMU
mp wrote:
I'm glad to see you using one of my favorite technical terms, "stuff".
One of the failures last week.
A California bank that received $298.7 million in federal bank bailout money last year has been seized and closed by state regulators, leaving U.S. taxpayers with a significant loss – the bailout program's first – and raising questions about why the lender received government help at all.
United Commercial Bank of San Francisco was closed by the state Department of Financial Institutions late Friday. The state immediately named the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as bank receiver.
/snip
(The Money Quote)
"We want United Commercial customers to understand that it's business as usual," Tolda said in an interview.
404 - Not Found - sacbee.com
traderwalt
gramm was not who i was referring to,dont think it was nanoo-nanoo was referring to either.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I seem to have gotten there from this link
English-Caijing
am I on some sort of a list now?
Admittedly, I don't know the details of the "Enron loophole". But as a futures trader I want to point that i think the Enron loophole allowed companies to report false profits that never materialized. Enron stock went up, but the company went BK. (Did I point out that I bet that Ken Lay would never go to prison? I collected on the bet.)
Is that any different than banks booking neg-am as profits?
gabyjan and Nanoo, sorry, my mistake.
Who wants to go shopping?
KABUL, Afghanistan — First came the Brezhnev Market. Then the Bush Market.
Now Afghans are beginning to call their notorious bazaar full of chow and supplies bought or stolen from the vast U.S. military bases by the name of the current American president, a modest counterweight to his Nobel Peace Prize.
"It is Obama Market now," pronounced Haji Tor, a rotund shopkeeper who acts as kind of an unofficial chamber of commerce president for the market in the Afghan capital. "Bush is finished."
In Kabul's 'Obama Market,' U.S. military rations on sale | McClatchy
traderwalt: http://seekingalpha.com/article/172797-the-global-oil-scam-50-times-bigger-than-madoff
There is something else I would like to point out. the '08 Farm bill and previous attached food production to energy production in ethanol mandates. This is total folly as now, ag is attached to the same futures manipulation as energy. idiots.
One thing I learned when I traded grain futures. Some people like to complain about welfare programs. Agriculture subsidies, or ag welfare, is many , many times larger. Even if you exclude ethanol subsidies.
I apologize to everyone for OCD posting which isn't RE central. However it does point to the disparities and corruption in the economy. Energy and food is is mandatory, not discretionary spending. The more you pay for the energy, the less left otherwise. It took me a long time to piece together that end of ponzi as all of this is way out of my discipline. and yes traderwalt, the subsidies are massive and goes to BIG ag NOT to grow but I do not know the details, someone should shed a little sunshine there too.
Thats a real productive use of our tax dollars in huge economy with lots of money to burn. /snark.
Now I await the unemployment numbers.
traderwalt
its okay probably my fault decided to play around with nanoo question well really wanted to see if i had the right end of the stick, in my family im famous for getting the wrong end. im sorry if i mislead you. and sorry to you too nanoo-nanoo
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
'scuse me, but wtf? The total annual gross revenue numbers may come close to a trillion, but your assertion of a trillion in profits in six months is off by a factor of 10 or so...and that doesn't get into the issue of conflation (after a great stem winding on the excessive financialization of the futures market which is reasonably accurate we suddenly pivot from the banks to the oil companies and have about <10% of the profits claimed).
.
Don't have time for all of them, so let's just look at the biggest one, ExxonMobil (XOM):
.
XOM Annual 2008 Revenue: $477 B
XOM Annual 2008 Net Income: $45.2 B
XOM 2008 Profit Margin: 9.5%
XOM: Income Statement for EXXON MOBIL CP - Yahoo! Finance
.
So the top three may have had ~$100 billion or so in net income in the entire year...which runs at about 8%-10% of gross revenues.
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
this is a little different got this over at Badtux,the snarky penguin,like the little black,white and yellow guy.
we need a poll for how many times we get
on thursdays
No apologies are needed from anyone, can't say the name or the NSA van will come around (again) and poor CR would get slapped to produce IP addresses and IDs of people who post here. ha
It would be considered defamatory in a legal sense and I one of the fortunate who still has something to lose.
energycon: I'll try and find the testimony, I had it on a computer that had a hard disc crash and burn; so my resources got thinned out. Remember, this was when oil was like gold today...going into the stratosphere QUICKLY. The profits were among all three, not separately. Also remember the business structure that separates refinery operations of oil companies; keeping everything on a razor thin margin in production of refined products.
Weekly jobless claims drop 12,000 to 502,000
Yippy! 12,000 more fall off the payroll.........oh the joy of it all.....( Burp )
Geithner stresses strong dollar's global role
he really did'nt...did he?
Continuing claims drop 139,000 to 5.63 million
G. and Nanoo,
I read the article that Nanoo posted. The writer is missing one point. If two traders sell a position back and forth to each other, that's prearranged trading and is illegal in the US. It's a crime, period. If it's happening, and the US government i is giving money to these people, then it's a huge scandal.
So as not to hijack UE I'll reply here energycon: You are correct and I was wrong. Its complex as the aggregate is difficult to compile. Still, the profits of the oil companies were not because they were producing or there was a shortage, it was totally manipulated and linked to the financial sector futures trading and their forecasts of oil prices. My apologies to you, way too many numbers running around in my pea brain.
Here's a little bit that I learned.
more can be found here:
[http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/system/files/Oil+Companies+Redistributing+Wealth.pdf](Page not found | Stanford Center for Internet and Society
/Oil+Companies+Redistributing+Wealth.pdf)
Nanoo-Nanoo,
You're actually looking under the hood of one of the most important parts of the "system", energy, and that is all to your credit. My biggest point is that we should proceed from a common fact base, and then bang into each other's POV on what the numbers may mean...
I believe that there has been excessive financialization in the futures markets, however I disagree with your point regarding the majors not producing - in fact, they do not have those profits without producing both oil (an intermediate input) and final products (gasoline, diesel, heating oil etc.).
energycon: I realize they are actually producing a product for which there is demand...it is the supply/demand and pricing structure which was hijacked via the CFMA and this isn't just a USA born and bred issue. Futures market dictate the price of oil/energy but that is now unrepresentative of a supply/demand market for a product. Last year was ultimately instructive in providing the proof of this. Prices moved on 'forecasts' by those interested parties and traders, witness the now infamous 'forecast' by Goldman (or was it Merrill?)of $200/ppb by Nov '08. who are very large players in the futures market. Instead there was an ultimate crash but not before a lot of pain to the economy.
Today is also instructive as 'targets' for gasoline prices, nat.gas and oil are met despite decreased demand and higher inventories.
energycon,
Maybe Nanoo has a point. If prices are being manipulated, aren't those doing the manipulation committing a crime? Why aren't they being investigated? Illegal profits are illegal, no?
' Guess I missed the point again...
traderwalt: via the article I linked it is the
who are profiting as well and in major ways. They are the regulators who would launch an investigation. The brand spanking new SEC COO is a goldman sachs exec.
Big money, big profits, and power-never mind if its illegal, if you don't like the game, then change the law and POOF its not illegal anymore!
Lawyers, writing laws for lawyers. Thats what got us in this fine mess. Us little minnows in that vast ocean don't stand a chance in those shark infested waters. The likes of Gramm thinks we are all just a bunch of whiners if we complain when we're literally robbed and eaten by the big sharks. .
Yes you're exactly right.
traderwalt wrote:
Would you mind training my husband?
lol.
My guess: given a little time, he'll figure it out for himself.
mp - catching up and want to put a note in the historical record, as it were: RCA invented the shadow-mask system and licensed it. As late as 1961, Sony had no plans to enter the color TV market, satisfied with their microtelevisions. But Masura Ibuka (Sony co-founder) went to an IEEE conference in NY in 1961 and saw a demonstration of the Chromatron tube invented in 1950 by Ernest O. Lawrence. The patent was owned by Paramount Pictures. Sony got a license for the Chromatron patent in 1962 and worked on a Chromatron TV for four years without much success. It was considered a crisis by Sony. GE approached them with a possible solution, but after much internal debate, Sony turned them down, not wanting to be a subcontractor to GE. Akio Morita was defending the company to dealers saying "we're behind, but if we develop a stronger product, we can be ahead over 10 years." Finally, Senri Miyaoka came up with a single gun three cathode concept. Sony abandoned all other alternatives, having only to decide which mask to use. Akio Ohkoshi proposed an aperture grill rather than a shadow mask with problems in vibration. Ibuka himself devised the tungsten wires that stabilized the grille. By Christmas, 1968, the Trinitron was on the market.