I predict high-end consumer spending will be very healthy, while middle- and low-end will be moribund.

I base this forecast on a little-known principle called "follow the money".

If I were to weigh those positive and negative possibilities, I'd say the negatives pull more weight. I hope I'm just being a big sourpuss tho.

"possible downside risks"

How about known and getting worse....

Too much sitting on the fence CR..

Ciao
MS

to add to that..there is only so much mark-to-fantasy that will cushion the known.

Ciao
MS

Maybe the Fed will put some TARPettes on the counter:

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said yesterday: "[T]here could be an impact resulting from small banks' impaired ability to support the small business sector—a sector I expect will be critically important to job creation. ... small firms' reliance on banks with heavy CRE exposure is substantial. Banks with the highest CRE exposure ... account for almost 40 percent of all small business loans."

The only way the FED could help, given the over-large number of small banks, is for the Fed to purchase the bank's CRE loans (somehow). I expect to see that in early 2010.

Also early next year: some kind of direct jobs support program. Harry Reid said yesterday this is going on the Senate agenda. But it is kinda hard to see what they could do. Tax cuts for small biz if they hire won't work if the biz's are not making money sufficient for a tax cut to make a dent.

Personally, I'd like to see a direct action Fed program like FDRs WPA and CCC. We'd need to employ multiple millions to make a difference in the huge rolls of unemployed. Small biz isn't going to provide that.

Report: 10 states face looming budget disasters - Yahoo! Finance

So will state bailouts be Stimpack II or III? It's going to happen, just a matter of when

From the link:

That could mean higher taxes, more layoffs of government employees, increasingly crowded classrooms and fewer services in states that account for more than one-third of America's population and economic output.

Most of the states face rising unemployment and high home foreclosure rates, and their revenues have dropped by double-digit percentages.

Hucoodanode?

bearly wrote:

I think we get Stimulus to local governments in 2010..

We really don't have a choice as a nation. The shape of the support will be hard to agree upon, given the varying degrees of state distress. This is going to be very political (not rational). The only 'fair' way would be some amount of $ per capita, but even that would be opposed by the small states that have big Senate influence. Federalism sucks as it is expressed by the US Senate. [I'd greatly favor some formula that gave Senate seats in relation to state population.]

bearly wrote:

How about State & Local government basket case budgets and how draconian cuts might impact growth, jobs etc ? I think we get Stimulus to local governments in 2010..

Truly though, just rolling those deficits into FedGov wouldn't cause a noticeable blip in total public debt. The only danger in muni/state bailouts is resentment especially if three certain high profile states appear to be first in line.

Working exactly as designed...

Day traders blow the 'all clear'?

The Retail Day-Trader Comes Out Of The Woodwork (MON, PCLN)

JimPortlandOR wrote:

Federalism sucks as it is expressed by the US Senate. [I'd greatly favor some formula that gave Senate seats in relation to state population.

You beat me by a minute with most of my points but I would suggest this last be turned on end for contrast:

Federalism sucks as it is expressed by the US House of Representatives .

See? That's why we have both and gore everyone's oxen.

bearly, many local schools and governments will be able to hold on at current levels for about 18 more months.

After that, there will be drastic cuts coming, with or without union consent.

CR - on conusmer spending, I expect another big increase in deliquencies and charge-offs when the banks report in the next several days, as well as continued cutting of consumer credit when the Fed report comes out in three weeks. Without the home ATM, I have no clue where the money will come from (unless it is from the taxpayer's pockets through C4C like programs).

have we run out of mines?

Nah... I'm sure there's something is short that will be soon.

Things should get even crazier and explosive when states start releasing more and more prisoners to cut costs. Non-violent criminals will get released first, but as cuts get deeper, there will be many violent criminals let go. Where will they live? How will they make money?

Good timing - Fitch just released their monthly analysis of CC lending - from Reuters:

Prime credit card delinquencies of 60 days or more rose 16 basis points in October to 4.22 percent, up 104 basis points from a year earlier, Fitch said.

The agency said it is assessing the long-term impact of the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act signed into law in May, which could have a significant impact on credit card company's profits.

Meant to protect consumers from sudden rate hikes, hidden fees and other deceptive practices, the act prevents companies from raising rates on existing card balances and requires companies to keep promotional rates in effect for at least six months, among other restrictions.

"The card act is significant, as inability to re-price existing balances will necessitate higher rates for all cardholders, and credit availability is expected to decline materially as card issuers tighten underwriting criteria and reduce credit lines," Fitch said.

The longer-term impact on profits will depend largely on competitive reactions to the legislation, Fitch said. (Reporting by Dena Aubin; Editing by Leslie Adler)

MS wrote:

The last 25 years were proven to be nothing more than a Don Ho song.

I disconcur. These bubbles have been anything but tiny.

What we really need are some imaginative programs to reduce our energy usage in the medium and long-term.

Something visionary, that will stimulate manufacturing, advance our strengths, and put us in a better position versus China and India and other emerging nations.

• Massive tax-breaks to build natural gas filling stations
• Tax breaks for NG trucks and cars
• A drive to make Federal buildings use only renewable power
• Pedestrianize large parts of our downtown cities
• Impose tariffs on goods produced by 'slave labor'
• A work program to demolish or maintain housing infrastructure, supported by a tax on banks

It's an on-going crime that we wear clothes, shoes, and use computers and electronics made by people paid peanuts to live in dorms. This is not 1900.

It's a crime that people are homeless when so many homes are empty and decaying.

tncubsfan wrote:

Non-violent criminals will get released first, but as cuts get deeper, there will be many violent criminals let go.

What makes you think that? You really think they'll triage the prison population based on anything other than marginal cost? No, low risk inmates will be kept as they are cheap, some even paying into the system for work release and such. Sure the habitual violent will be less likely to be released despite their high costs but expect the disproportionate group to be the petty to serious property crime types.

ACP....I seem to have confused my "bubble" songs......what I meant was "forever blowing bubbles".

Sorry Don.....

Ciao
MS

I don't believe that it's in China's best interests to revalue the RMB. They may do it a few percent to relieve a little of the sanitization and political pressure, but don't expect large moves.

It's an on-going crime that we wear clothes, shoes, and use computers and electronics made by people paid peanuts to live in dorms. This is not 1900.

it's funny. i'm currently reading a paper on the NCAA's exploitation of college football athletes.

Nemo wrote:

I predict high-end consumer spending will be very healthy, while middle- and low-end will be moribund.

I think this is a reasonable forecast, depressingly, because asset inflation strongly favors the wealthy. While their marginal propensity to spend may not be as high, it certainly isn't zero, and those wealth effects must be kicking in aaaany... minute... now...

Oh, good, I just saw a group of yuppies in new sweaters carrying shopping bags. Economic policy does work, after all.

I predict high-end consumer spending will be very healthy - N

That's not what I'm seeing, and reading in the retail press. There has been a lot of cutting back at all levels. The high-end ready to wear houses, for example, are hurting badly, and several have gone BK. Couture is virtually dead. The sales girls at places like Saks are so lonely, they come out and greet you just to have someone to talk to! Which is a radical change from their formerly snooty behavior The fashion magazines have been begging, and I do mean begging, their readers to go and shop-- to save jobs! I have never, ever heard of such behavior in my life. Just because you have money, doesn't mean you aren't susceptible to the fear factor. The "VIX" at retail is still all-pervading.

*Washington (AFP) Nov 10, 2009 - Swine flu is causing "an American emergency" as employees who lack paid sick leave go to work despite being ill and spread the disease, US lawmakers were told Tuesday.

The A(H1N1) virus "is causing an emergency for workers and families across the country," Senator Chris Dodd told a Senate subcommittee hearing on paid sick leave in a time of pandemic flu.

The United States is the only developed nation without a national policy on paid sick leave, Dodd said.

Most government workers, including US legislators, have paid sick leave, but since it is not mandatory some 57 million US private sector workers, including many in low-paid jobs and tens of thousands working in school systems, lack the benefit.

For them, contracting the swine flu "means you have a choice: either go into work sick and risk infecting your co-workers or stay home and lose a day's pay," Dodd said.

The senator has introduced legislation to give US workers paid sick days if they or a family member come down with swine flu.

As the nation struggles to emerge from a punishing recession and double-digit unemployment, many Americans cannot consider taking unpaid sick leave, said Dodd.

"We're in the company -- and I say this respectfully of these countries -- of Lesotho, Liberia, Papua-New Guinea and Swaziland. Those countries and the United States are the five that don't have paid sick leave," Dodd said.

"Five nations, four of whom are struggling economies, barely surviving as nation-states, and the richest country in the world," he told a hearing in the Senate health, education, labor and pensions subcommittee.

A person who goes into work when they have swine flu will infect 10 percent of their co-workers, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which has repeatedly urged people to stay at home if they fall ill with flu-like symptoms.

"If paid sick leave had been a reality when this pandemic began, we would be in better shape," Dodd said.

The A(H1N1) flu has infected as many as 5.7 million people in 48 US states and claimed 672 lives, including at least 129 children, according to CDC data.*

scone wrote:

That's not what I'm seeing, and reading in the retail press. There has been a lot of cutting back at all levels.

How do we reconcile this with the +3.4% consumption print in GDP? How do we reconcile that consumption print with sales tax numbers?

I'm increasingly thinking GDP is a really, really fishy number. And not in the Abercrombie girl sense.

"We're in the company -- and I say this respectfully of these countries -- of Lesotho, Liberia, Papua-New Guinea and Swaziland. Those countries and the United States are the five that don't have paid sick leave," Dodd said.

Not one of them could be called a 'banana republic' so we haven't stopped too low...

Stand tall America!

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Stand tall America!

USA! USA! USA!

I've been tracking this bug quasi-obsessively, and this strikes me as a mechanism to juice the wage income more than a real public health measure... (yeah, and I heard that "What do you mean 'quasi'?" )

Five nations, four of whom are struggling economies,

So Lesotho doesn't have a struggling economy? Or is the exception Liberia?

Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 3:05 pm replyIgnore usertncubsfan wrote:

Non-violent criminals will get released first, but as cuts get deeper, there will be many violent criminals let go.

What makes you think that? You really think they'll triage the prison population based on anything other than marginal cost? No, low risk inmates will be kept as they are cheap, some even paying into the system for work release and such. Sure the habitual violent will be less likely to be released despite their high costs but expect the disproportionate group to be the petty to serious property crime types.

- Yes, to say violent criminals may have been a bit much, more likely criminals such as you've mentioned like property crime, etc. I would be concerned about some of these people who have criminal records with lesser offenses who are now unemployed and homeless. What may they do in this hopeless situation? Just something I see becoming a problem in the not so distant future.

"The greatest impact from the stimulus package is behind us..."

Is that positive impact? Who saw any positive impact? Only the
However, there will be an equal (or greater) and opposite negative reaction for the rest of us.
Another year the gets the and all I get is a lump of coal.

Jonathan wrote:

It's an on-going crime that we wear clothes, shoes, and use computers and electronics made by people paid peanuts to live in dorms. This is not 1900.

The 'victims' of these crimes would disagree.

CR-- Unemployment and Wage Deflation

Personally, I don't consider that a surprise downside risk. I consider it a given.

And unemployment is now a leading indicator.

On Bubbles, Inflation and Overcapacity

Eric wrote:

America, Fuck Yeah!

Beat me to it.

Jonathan wrote:

It's an on-going crime that we wear clothes, shoes, and use computers and electronics made by people paid peanuts to live in dorms. This is not 1900.

It's a crime that people are homeless when so many homes are empty and decaying.

Homeless issue goes far beyond housing. Many homeless simply lack a job and once that is solved the other problems tend to sort themselves out. Many of the chronic homeless on drugs, alcohol or mentally ill could be given a house and long term would end up no better off.

If you don't like the wages in other countries, tariffs are pretty much the only solution.

It may have been mentioned already, but if the dollar keeps falling and thus oil keeps going up, eventually the consumer spending in other areas will be hit--another negative.

Big Gov can distort and deceive us nine ways to Sunday on most numbers they cook to otder for us, but the hoi unempolloied aren't numbers, they are people, and it's becoming obvious to all, that jobs aren't out there, and should you have one-don't lose yours, whatever you do!

I'm increasingly thinking GDP is a really, really fishy number. - ndk

I can't say. It could be that the money is going into different categories. In other words, less clothing, fewer restaurant meals, but more cooking at home. Things like that. And obviously, the stimpack and C4C has played a role. We won't see the real situation until the stimpack is dialed back. IMO, at that point we could see a double-dip.

"In the 1930's, those with money silently crept into the woodwork, as opposed to how they were in the roaring 20's... "

Austerity is the new black?

tncubsfan wrote:

So will state bailouts be Stimpack II or III? It's going to happen, just a matter of when

Anybody post that poll yet? Looks like the leg work's been done-

,rad mp,

Would it be safe to assume that 25% of all employees are pretty much debt-weight, but usually it takes a year or 10 for the employer to realize this, and thanks to the possibility of lawsuits for wrongful firing, they weren't expendable?

They are now.

Terry wrote:

I have no clue where the money will come from (unless it is from the taxpayer's pockets through C4C like programs)

C4C and similar are just a "discount," the consumer still has to put substantial cash/debt on the line.
The enticement might be there but are the resources?

scone wrote:

It could be that the money is going into different categories. In other words, less clothing, fewer restaurant meals, but more cooking at home. Things like that. And obviously, the stimpack and C4C has played a role. We won't see the real situation until the stimpack is dialed back. IMO, at that point we could see a double-dip.

But how do you reconcile 20% y/o/y drops in sales tax receipts with a 3.4% growth in overall consumption? 400% growth in online/interstate sales? That makes zilch sense. Groceries would explain a liiiittle bit of it at the state level, but not the ugly local numbers.

Are there other categories exempt from sales taxes that I'm missing?

So will state bailouts be Stimpack II or III? It's going to happen, just a matter of when

There will be a battle royal over the next stimulus. Even Krugman began to talk about it the other day.

Obama will lose control of Congress next year.

As Krugman said, it's his Anzio. Too little action, too late.

CaptainMorgan wrote:

If you don't like the wages in other countries, tariffs are pretty much the only solution.

Totally agree. Sadly we appear to have been sold off to our "most favored nation" and NAFTA when we weren't paying attention.

energyecon wrote:

Rodriguez Says Venezuela Studying Bolivar Devaluation (Update1)
By Telmo Almada and Daniel Cancel
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez said that the government is “cautiously” studying a devaluation of the country’s bolivar, which has been pegged at the same rate for more than four years.

To southeast Asia, from South America with love. It worked for them; why not in Bolivia? Yet another reason I don't see China modifying their peg dramatically any time soon. That peg has done more good for those 1.4 billion people than we can ever imagine.

A currency crisis in eastern Europe

You needn't go to Europe. A currency crisis is developing here.

As we talk about this crap.

Basel Too wrote:

the biggest wildcard in 2010 will be the mid-term election...

Are you under the impression that elections cannot be bought?

After reading this article:

Target's Black Friday bet:$3 appliances, deep deals on HDTVs - Nov. 11, 2009

I have a new prediction.

Black Friday is going to be cut-throat this year. As in shoppers beating each other up to get to deals. Money is tight, and retailers are going to be giving big incentives to get you in the store.

Despite the prices, this will be another year I won't go.

dum luk wrote:

Nemo wrote:
I predict high-end consumer spending will be very healthy
The Rich Are Back, and You Can Profit at SmartMoney.com

I predict msn stories extolling the virtues of the 'new economy' servicing the uber wealthy.

But how do you reconcile 20% y/o/y drops in sales tax receipts with a 3.4% growth in overall consumption? 400% growth in online/interstate sales? - ndk

Just a guess-- If sales tax totals are lower, but you have some growth, then peeps are either buying cheaper stuff or shopping in places that are free of sales tax? Also, 3.4% growth over nothing is still mostly nothing.

Outsider wrote:

Despite the prices, this will be another year I won't go.

That's our only effective nonviolent protest, to refuse to consume, then to vote out those who vote for the stimulus spending that will inevitably follow.

I noticed a tremendous void in what passes for news, once the November elections were over last year, as we are suckers for drawn-out foregone conclusions that seem to take forever to consummate.

I'm surprised they haven't gotten the jump on next year, already.

scone wrote:

Also, 3.4% growth over nothing is still mostly nothing.

It's over 70% of GDP. That's not even close to nothing. That's a huge amount of additional consumption.

dum luk, that Seeking Alpha piece does not impress me.

Sure, it's likely we'll see a correction in gold, but the fact that the Indians bought 200 tons of the stuff kind of puts a floor under it, doesn't it?

Particularly when you've got other central banks sure to follow.

This isn't a run on the euro, or the franc, it's a run on the goddamned $US.

ndk wrote:

how do you reconcile 20% y/o/y drops in sales tax receipts with a 3.4% growth in overall consumption?

Winner winner chicken dinner.

The States are not lying about sales tax revenues and remember most of them are currently collecting at higher rates. Either GDP is wrong or sales tax revenues are wrong. Even though it is obvious which is incorrect it doesn't matter as either will generate a similar macroeconomic backlash.

one reason for the disconnect in sales tax receipts is that many of the small businesses are either underreporting or not paying. still got to pay the distributor or manufacturer if you want to remain open. as with the decision between paying property taxes and paying the mortgage, the government gets the shaft.

There's tons of Anti-American sentiment now...even in the Ivory Tower...so maybe there's some celebration and satisfaction to the Dollar decline...thanks to the U.S. policies of the past...

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Were there big lay-offs at the Washington Times? When?

here's a link

mp,
Yeah as the dollar decline becomes real to the wallet...

Taxes, starve the beast! I not buying!

merchants of fear wrote:

There's tons of Anti-American sentiment now...even in the Ivory Tower...so maybe there's some celebration and satisfaction to the Dollar decline...thanks to the U.S. policies of the past...

Regrettably, a decline versus the Yuan is something we need. In fact, I think it's already happened; we (and they) just don't know it yet.

The upside surprises are economic but all downside risks are not.

The downside risks include war in the Middle East, aggression by China, wars on the Russian borders, wars in South America, massive famines and global virus outbreaks, and the possibility that whole nations will just give up on Afghanistan and Obama, leaving him stranded on an island by himself.

That's our only effective nonviolent protest, to refuse to consume

When is this movement going to gain some ground? It will happen one way or the other, but I don't know why some groups haven't (very publicly) jumped on the bandwagon and started preaching this meme. I think it's high time.

All of this is now about finding a safe haven. Any safe haven, including gold, will be temporary. Now, in the extreme case, some would argue that, if there's no confidence in the system, then gold should appreciate against all currencies.

I don't buy into that view. There are a lot of us who think that the crisis will develop initially in the $US, then spread to other currencies.

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:

Which makes said goods more affodable to more lower income consumers in Asia, broadening the consumer base. More competitively priced products and a more competitive China....isn't this good?

Good for Asia and Asians, particularly those not in the asset owner/rentier class, you bet. Deflation is probably a good thing there. China has had a deflationary bias since the late '90's and it's been wonderful for individuals who still see some small nominal wage gains to go with it due to the massive growth in GDP.

Not horrible for commodity exporters, but not great.

Horrendous for debtor or uncompetitive nations, particularly those with currencies in death vise pegs.

I could care less about what deflation does to the US and its banking....don't live there anymore...don't care.....just like watching a slow motion train wreck for me.

Your question was expressly about the US and I answered it. Yes, this huge investment/capital growth in Asia is terrible for America and American workers. The American overclass... mixed.

"When it comes to real property taxes, the government gets paid, sooner or later."

How's that working out for Detroit?

As if this wasn't enough reason to shop at Target:

peopleofwalmart.com

Any safe haven, including gold, will be temporary.

Wow. I did not know alchemy had been perfected!

Watching the USD Drop? Here's What You Should Really Be Watching -- Seeking Alpha

rich wrote:

The upside surprises are economic but all downside risks are not.
The downside risks include war in the Middle East, aggression by China, wars on the Russian borders, wars in South America, massive famines and global virus outbreaks, and the possibility that whole nations will just give up on Afghanistan and Obama, leaving him stranded on an island by himself.

FWIW, there's already 2 wars in the Middle East; We don't have the capacity do do anything beyond piss-and-moan about how Russia treats its neighbors, nor about aggressive moves by the Chinese. Massive famines play into our hands as a net food exporter. Global virus will hurt the third world far more than us. Regarding the Chinese, I still believe their interests are sufficiently tied to our (believe it or not) that they won't provoke us.

Looks like that growth didn't come at Macy's - poic

Yes. Check out Macy's today:

Macy's, Inc. - Google Finance

Re sales taxes-- how many metro regions have "tax free" shopping right over the border? For example, Oregon and New Hampshire have no sales tax. Do people drive farther to save tax in bad periods, but shop locally, to save time, in good periods? I mean, if one family member is unemployed, that person could drive an hour or 2, and "stock up" on stuff, then drive back. So maybe changed behavior explains some of it.

Anyway, got to go pack more stuff. Take care!

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:

I watch how appraisals, budgets, and market studies were fudged in California and the Middle Atlantic and I don't see that over here.

Where's 'over here'?

Which Is Worse?

'Conspiracies' (cooperation & organization) to transfer wealth or institutions that don't work to protect consumers/workers as they should?

Cinco-X wrote:

Regrettably, a decline versus the Yuan is something we need. In fact, I think it's already happened; we (and they) just don't know it yet.

China has a massive vested interest in preventing a significant revaluation of the RMB. If it was revalued:

• The PBoC would be bankrupted instantly
• Exports would be less competitive, particularly to countries other than the U.S. We're the anchor dragging their currency down in stealth, which helps them tremendously.
• The holdings of the CIC and SAFE would be devalued
• America would be able to start capital formation again, and its economy would rebalance away from consumption
• Other countries that don't revalue would gain an edge on China. See Bolivia earlier.
• Maintaining the peg AND successfully fighting domestic inflation = large domestic deflation in the U.S., with attendant explosions that can only increase China's global position

And America's only way to "force" a revaluation is through enacting serious tariffs, which would win it no friends around the world and would likely get bitch-slapped into submission by the WTO.

Blackhalo wrote:

"When it comes to real property taxes, the government gets paid, sooner or later."
How's that working out for Detroit?

Blackhalo, you got me there. Although Detroit is obviously an exception, and a large one at that, there will be more such exceptions to come.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

It's strictly a one-size-fails-all proposition for every paper tiger, once the dollar goes down...

Rationale: IF the $ can fail, then any paper currency can fail.............

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:

I watch how appraisals, budgets, and market studies were fudged in California and the Middle Atlantic and I don't see that over here. At least yet. There are limits to creative underwriting I'd push in California that I would never do here for fear of being on the next flight home.

I agree. My dealings with Chinese corporations and Asiatic governments is that they're generally much more interested in doing the "right" thing than those in America. I trust their capital markets and government VASTLY more than ours.

They really want to succeed, not just profit for themselves. It's incredibly wonderful to be a part of that again, and I love every trip I get to Asia for that reason. It just feels plain good being over there as opposed to here.

But they're still strongly coupled. Give it time.

"Wow. I did not know alchemy had been perfected!:

You didn't know that gold can be woven out of straw?

Gold is valuable only if you know people who are willing to pay for it or barter for it. Otherwise, unless you need it for an industrial process, what can you do with it? How many bangles can an Indian woman wear?

"Wait until 401ks are forcibly rolled into a consolidated federal retirement account . "

They're not going to be forcibly rolled. They will be "forcibly" rolled and your average American won't be able to tell or realize the difference.

Your default option will be something in treasuries with a backup option being one that buys all the dreck the banks offloaded onto the FED.

It'll be named "Save a Starving Child" 401k option and 99.999999999% of the population won't care as long as the lights are on, food is on the table, the TV is on and their 401k is going up (regardless of what is happening to the US dollar).

This board is truly not reflective at all of how or what most people in the US think IMO.

broward wrote:

Rob Dawg wrote:
Wait until 401ks are forcibly rolled into a consolidated federal retirement account .
I can hardly wait.
It should be vastly amusing.

I notice you don't even question the possibility.

ndk wrote:

Regrettably, a decline versus the Yuan is something we need. In fact, I think it's already happened; we (and they) just don't know it yet.

China has a massive vested interest in preventing a significant revaluation of the RMB. If it was revalued:

Agreed, and I mentioned that tangentially in a separate post. My point was that anyone that might celebrate at the dollar's decline has a vested interest in it not doing so (except maybe the Russians). It wouldn't feel as satisfying once you realize that in undercutting the $, you cut the value of your SWF by 20%, 50%, or 90%. DOH!

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:

Cinco-X wrote:
The downside risks include war in the Middle East, aggression by China, wars on the Russian borders, wars in South America, massive famines and global virus outbreaks, and the possibility that whole nations will just give up on Afghanistan and Obama, leaving him stranded on an island by himself.

I did NOT write this!

broward wrote:

Invest in printing presses!

Buy ink http://www.hoocoodanode.org/images/smileys/squid.png

Basel Too wrote:

Gold is valuable only if you know people who are willing to pay for it or barter for it.
Sort of like the dollar...

I'll take all the face value glod you've got. Okay, I'll pay twice face value. Three times...? Damn. The jig is up.

I support a declining dollar for the simple reason that I make money producing things that are sold overseas but most of my consumption is of goods and services produced here. Thus lower dollar = higher standard of living for me.

Increased export surprises. To whom and what?

mp wrote:

If $US does collapse, the only true safe haven will be hard, productive assets once the collapse is accomplished.

Don't diminish the value of actual skills-

Cinco-X wrote:

My point was that anyone that might celebrate at the dollar's decline has a vested interest in it not doing so (except maybe the Russians). It wouldn't feel as satisfying once you realize that in undercutting the $, you cut the value of your SWF by 20%, 50%, or 90%. DOH!

If you can prop up your SWF and central bank; increase exports and employment; get tons of surplus cash flow to invest in whatever you want; and potentially force deflation on your horribly indebted global rival, why would you not do this?

The only two answers are:

1) Being really nice and generous to those who would screw you.
2) Losing all control of domestic inflation. And they're goooood at sanitization.

Well, sanitizing money. The country itself is pretty filthy.

Don't diminish the value of actual skills-

Absolutely. And that's why people need to constantly acquire practical skills.

The old school of macroeconomic theorists had not even heard of derivatives...this is a whole new field of study for research and possible new theories of "capitalism' and how it works...a whole new area of institutional analysis...

Rob Dawg wrote:

I'll take all the face value glod you've got. Okay, I'll pay twice face value. Three times...? Damn. The jig is up.

I've got some gold colored disks with pictures of Alfred E. Newman on them in $1,000,000.00 denominations. Make me an offer

merchants of fear wrote:

Did anyone ever take a class in central banking?

Is that the one taught by

Assume Crash Positions wrote:

You mean skills other than how to operate the espresso machine at Starbucks or clean the grill at McD's, right?

I was thinking more along the lines of milking goats, raising chicken, and catching s

Cinco-X wrote:

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Cinco-X wrote:
The downside risks include war in the Middle East, aggression by China, wars on the Russian borders, wars in South America, massive famines and global virus outbreaks, and the possibility that whole nations will just give up on Afghanistan and Obama, leaving him stranded on an island by himself.
I did NOT write this!

Sorry dude it's past midnight here. I'm always up against you dorks who just had your morning coffee.

@homedad

us = associates

Winston wrote:

I support a declining dollar for the simple reason that I make money ...

... shorting it into the ground.

Thus lower dollar = higher standard of living for me.