LBD: You really don't get it. Do you shop for groceries? What is cheapest on those shelves? What fills growling tummies with volume vs good nutrition? What meat cuts are the cheapest?
Comment by Cinco-X from thread 'Orange County: Foreclosure Notices Hit Record High'
Nevertheless, when I've gotten behind folks using foodstamps, their carts have been invariably full of frozen dinners, steaks instead of hamburger, chips, and never, never fresh vegetables (which are, incidentally, a bargain compared to frozen). There was a time (early '60s) that the govt. gave away good stuff to poor folks; stuff like stone ground wheat, "real" cheese (not the processed cheese products out there now), etc. My Dad told me about buying it from the lady who babysat me before I was school age. That policy was eliminated because it presumably lowered the self esteem of poor people, and allowing them to shop in grocery stores was better.
I did a search under IEA, but could not find any other posts concerning this at CR. Apparently peak oil is here and its existence was suppressed by US.
Another backdoor bailout. Great. I don't think the Obama administration realizes how much ill will they are accumulating with the sequential investor bailouts... while jobs continue to vanish.
This does NOTHING to help the employment situation.
pigged from the last thread
Haralambos (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 7:37 pm
* edit
* reply
burnside wrote:
+1 (!)
Thanks, burnside. I have been a student of the liberal arts for most of my 60 years, and it gave me enough independence to learn from every job I had, from grease monkey, cardboard box machine operator,and construction to the multiple skills that it takes to manage and carry out every work aspect of a good-sized restaurant in Chicago. I have also taught in three countries and learned four foreign languages. At present I am self-employed as an academic editor and my work is in demand, since I can deal with texts across the disciplines from medicine to economics to the humanities.
I think the liberal arts prepare one for what is a current buzzword in education: lifelong learning. I hope it is obvious that learned something from every job I ever had and never felt ashamed about what I did in any of them.
Sixty-six percent (66%) of American adults believe military service is more stressful than most other occupations, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
Gotta ask: What do the other 34% do for a living that's more stressful than being in the military?!
being shot at by the enemy, and in at least one case your "friends", or working your @$$ off and going hungry. Tough choice.
I think you are thinking too narrowly in regards to "military service". Being a latrine cleaner on a battleship/carrier or a joystick jockey for a predator is surely less stressful than being a meat shield out on patrol in southern Afghanistan, yes?
Must be those very productive bankers right, they are the most productive member of society!
Seriously though, look at anyone who provides work in hands on health care, police, anyone engaging in high risk productive work which requires doing things like trucking across the country oh and those guys that go out on those fishing vessels in the Bering Straight of course . Probably the largest group are those who are participating in reality TV shows and are forced to eat bugs.
Gotta ask: What do the other 34% do for a living that's more stressful than being in the military?!
Unless you're in the heat of battle, what's so stressful about being in the military? You get free health care, guaranteed pension, college is paid for and you don't have to worry about being laid off. Doesn't sound so stressful to me. Better than being perpetually unemployed in the deep south.
I think you are thinking too narrowly in regards to "military service". Being a latrine cleaner on a battleship/carrier or a joystick jockey for a predator is surely less stressful than being a meat shield in southern Afghanistan, yes?
True; I guess I base it on my own experience in the military. BTW, s many of the jobs in the Navy that are support are actually quite dangerous. If you work on the flight deck of a carrier, you're risking your life whether it's peacetime or not. I guess the really cushy jobs are in the Air Farce-
Not sure of the current "point of spear":"REMF" is, but in the USAF the grunts missed most of the fun while the officers were out doing the combat stuff...that ran about 1:10 IIRC...'course, the "REMF" role is not as cushy in the current conflicts by all accounts (there just isn't as much RE to go around)...
I think it is unfair that condo developers have to work so hard getting their bailout money through piddly little FHA loans that involve a bunch of burdensome paperwork.
Why can't they just get ten billion dollars at a pop directly from the TARP like Goldman Sachs?
What we need is a bunch of middle-aged white guys with chainsaws to fix all these unreasonable regulations.
I know Japan is a favorite analogy for one possible outcome of our current troubles. Having just returned from "wagakuni" after visits with the wife's family (Japanese) I have to say that's a pretty darn good outcome for the average person. Quality of life is good. If that's how all this doom ends up, I can live with that. Better than Iceland probably but I've never been there so I can't say what it's like for the average guy..
Not sure of the current "point of spear":"REMF" is, but in the USAF the grunts missed most of the fun while the officers were out doing the combat stuff...that ran about 1:10 IIRC...'course, the "REMF" role is not as cushy in the current conflicts by all accounts (there just isn't as much RE to go around)...
I believe the Tooth:Tail ratio is much smaller than in other recent conflicts. Much of the "REMF" work has been outsourced to contractors if I'm not mistaken. BTW, the Tooth:Tail ratio was about 25:1 in Vietnam (IIRC), but was half that or less in WWII.
T J & Bear made a good point the other day - enough with the foreplay, just pass every spending bill and bail out every bad investment so we can get on with the $US collapse.
Wow, I can't wait to buy me a new condo! Now I just have to find a community with a robust job market, cultural amentities, fantastic school system, hopeful and happy citizenry, a vibrant and resilient down-town surrounded by a peaceful and quiet suburban area overflowing with natural beauty and recreational opportunities, low taxes, a growing population of highly-educated and creative citizens of diverse skills and age groups, and a well-stocked public library system all connected with comfortable, safe, and timely free public transportation.
I have narrowed my choices to Munchkin City, Hobbiton or Bree, or maybe Avalon, the blessed isle. I will also consider Shangri La, although i am told the language barrier can be a bit of a sticky wicket.
The condo market is trying to tell Bernanke that it is still way overpriced and that prices should go down or just be turned into rental units owned by the government with low rents. But Bernanke is not happy with this. He has this pipedream, mathematical vision that he can still balance the economy on a pin head and recreate asset inflation in ALL real estate and financial instruments instead of working to produce good paying jobs for his fellow Americans. Did anyone hear him talk about outsourcing, insourcing, or illegals? Same with Godman sucks?
Nevertheless, when I've gotten behind folks using foodstamps, their carts have been invariably full of frozen dinners, steaks instead of hamburger, chips, and never, never fresh vegetables (which are, incidentally, a bargain compared to frozen). There was a time (early '60s) that the govt. gave away good stuff to poor folks; stuff like stone ground wheat, "real" cheese (not the processed cheese products out there now), etc. My Dad told me about buying it from the lady who babysat me before I was school age. That policy was eliminated because it presumably lowered the self esteem of poor people, and allowing them to shop in grocery stores was better.
My mother was a public health nurse in her younger years before staying home to raise us monkeys - after we entered school she returned but only as a volunteer. One of the things she did was work with Planned Parenthood to teach new [mostly poor & uneducated] mothers how to cook inexpensive & nutritious meals... to her dying day she was horrified by the lack of knowledge... it was like a whole generation never learned the basics.
That should be a bullet point on any future 'stimulus' package - hire some nutritionists & PHNs to get out there to re-educate both poor & middle class alike on how to get by well for less. You won't pick that up watching food commercials or reading Martha Stewart or 'Real Simple'...
My mother was a public health nurse in her younger years before staying home to raise us monkeys - after we entered school she returned but only as a volunteer. One of the things she did was work with Planned Parenthood to teach new [mostly poor & uneducated] mothers how to cook inexpensive & nutritious meals... to her dying day she was horrified by the lack of knowledge... it was like a whole generation never learned the basics.
That should be a bullet point on any future 'stimulus' package - hire some nutritionists & PHNs to get out there to re-educate both poor & middle class alike on how to get by well for less. You won't pick that up watching food commercials or reading Martha Stewart or 'Real Simple'...
You nailed it, and this same effect extends to other aspects of being poor. Gotta go-
I was just thinking the other day that these rules were in need of a bailout.
The FHA is like a guy desperately trying to get laid...just keeps lowering standards.
If it is the FHA looking to get laid why are we the ones getting screwed?
The only real risks in IT are:
1. an unsecured rack falling on you
2. a coworker going postal after the current round of layoffs when his job was moved to India
I have yet to encounter IEDs or snipers in an average IT dept.
~splat
The only real risks in IT are:
1. an unsecured rack falling on you
2. a coworker going postal after the current round of layoffs when his job was moved to India
I have yet to encounter IEDs or snipers in an average IT dept.
Dryfly, ot, but did you say awhile back that labor represented 10% of the cost of making goods? If so, was that the Chinese or American marketplace?
First off - it varies & also depends on what you call 'labor'... usually we clarify and call it 'direct labor' as opposed to office & other indirect overhead costs.
So given that - 10% of the cost of most products you buy is 'direct labor'. I can be as low as almost 0% for commodities [I worked in a plant like that once - only 150 employees total, plant & office, for an almost $1B facility]... to as high as say 30% [manual assembly - not much capital]. The typical facility is about 10%.
That is for NAFTA Zone plants but would expect modern plants in China to be similar.
oh bullshit, cinco - equating military service with a combat role is flat out wrong as you yourself noted - and lets tally up who here has raised their right hand and sworn to uphold the Constitution as the supreme law of the land, starting with you, then me and notable others and I think you'll find the political sock puppet labeling doesn't have jackshit to do with it
"The only real risks in IT are:
1. an unsecured rack falling on you
2. a coworker going postal after the current round of layoffs when his job was moved to India
I have yet to encounter IEDs or snipers in an average IT dept."
Risk of death or dismemberment is somewhat overrated, with regard to stress. I've worked both help desk and military service, and I'd much prefer the latter, from a stress perspective.
Another risk in IT is getting an brain aneurism after seeing the latest design document for the software project that was outsourced that you will end up supporting after the install goes live.
For those with internet access, there are a huge number of cooking websites with plenty of cheap, nutritious recipes.
My wife and I mainly eat our own soups and stews, bread, quiches, curries, pies supplemented by occasional packaged food like pizza or bertolis.
It seems like, more than the availability of inexpensive ingredients or recipes, non-cooking families with kids have a significant hurdle to get over, in that it's a significant risk to cook a meal that kids then just flat reject. If kids are being fed fat and sugar filled garbage at school, then it's going to take a while to get them to eat 'less tasty' healthy food.
The food-industry-complex in this country has a LOT to answer for. It's worth thinking about how they managed to get in a position such that their crap filled garbage has managed to create an obesity epidemic like no other country has ever seen.
@Winston: As a teenager, I delivered pizza to a military base in my hometown. Most of the soldiers just seemed downright bored. I honestly can't tell you how many I encountered that advised me to "never go into the military". Happened maybe at least once a night. Honestly.
raised their right hand and sworn to uphold the Constitution
You know, I can't remember if there was anything about the constitution in that oath or not. The part where they tell you to bend over and grab your ankles was more memorable than the oath part, but I was enlisted and we didn't get much in the way of ceremony.
What do the other 34% do for a living that's more stressful than being in the military?
Jeez. How about working in some dangerous occupation without health-benefits and having a kid or two. Conservative patriotic BS is as disgusting as the liberal guilt BS.
kind of interesting that the stock markets are open on Veterans Day.
You'll be happy to know my zombie bank is closed tho. We are thanking our veterans for defending socialism against the godless commies (Or something like that).
Mannwich,
I believe it. One of my friends after getting divorced ended up taking a chemical holiday for about a year. He was able to stay drunk and high for so long because he had a couple of army friends who hated to drink alone and put him up in their apartment off base for entertainment value.
a significant risk to cook a meal that kids then just flat reject
I am amazed how quickly the tradition of family meals where everyone eats what they are given has gone away. Seems like all the folks I know with kids have accepted the idea that the kids should be fed whatever they'll take without a fuss. You can't even plan a big meal at a family event - the parents all say the kids have to be fed hot dogs or whatever before the adults sit down to the main meal.
"You know, I can't remember if there was anything about the constitution in that oath or not."
It was a pretty memorable moment for me. Maybe not so much so, for those who were drafted. Coming from a family where both my Grandfathers, all 3 uncles, father and now son, have served or are serving, it is a pretty big deal.
I, (NAME), do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God.
For the life of me, I do not see how those moves will 'boost the condo market'. It looks to me like they would encourage building of more condos... which is the precise opposite of boosting the market.
One of us must live in a peculiar social circle. Among my friends, nearly all the ones with kidlets have family dinners where the kids eat whatever the parents are eating. I can only think of one family that I personally know who don't do that kind of family meals.
"For the life of me, I do not see how those moves will 'boost the condo market'. It looks to me like they would encourage building of more condos... which is the precise opposite of boosting the market."
This should allow more people to get an FHA loan for a condo purchase which should get some of the glut off the market.
The part where they tell you to bend over and grab your ankles was more memorable than the oath part, but I was enlisted and we didn't get much in the way of ceremony.
dryfly, let's assume that the cost of labor for Chinese manufactured goods represent 10% of their total cost. Let's assume that all other costs of the product produced in China and the US are the same. Let's guesstimate that the average Chinese wages for manufacturing is 60 cents per hour versus $20 per hour in the US. So, the cost of the same manufactured product produced here in the US would be .9 plus (20/.60) times .1 for a grand total of 4.2 in the US. In other words, it costs 4.2 times as much to produce the same product here in the US. Quite a difference!
I know Japan is a favorite analogy for one possible outcome of our current troubles. Having just returned from "wagakuni" after visits with the wife's family (Japanese) I have to say that's a pretty darn good outcome for the average person. Quality of life is good. If that's how all this doom ends up, I can live with that. Better than Iceland probably but I've never been there so I can't say what it's like for the average guy..
Japan is kind of the best case scenerio for extend and pretend. They've been able to do it for far longer than we could ever dream of doing ourselves. They have a lot of factors that help their extending and pretending that we don't have. But even they're bumping up against the cliff at this point.
dryfly, let's assume that the cost of labor for Chinese manufactured goods represent 10% of their total cost. Let's assume that all other costs of the product produced in China and the US are the same
The only way these two sentences work together is if the cost of labor in the US and China is the same.
"This should allow more people to get an FHA loan for a condo purchase which should get some of the glut off the market. "
When the FHA is the only game in town, I can clearly see how they think this will have a beneficial effect. I don't think they will like so much the new price discovery and move downs that will happen as a result though.
That argument would imply that the cost of labor for American manufactured goods is about 80% of total cost. Dryfly would know better than I, but that doesn't seem plausible.
Eric, wake up. Shorting spot gold 1115. 1/3 of short term position. See y'a at 1045.
When the trade works, I'll be handing out real cheese to y'a so you got something t'a chew on. Don't like seein' great braincells go unnourished. You show up in Oxnard where I'm sure you'll blend right in, at the now FDIC'd Bank of Buenaventura. Let's say Dec 1, 5 pm, after you get off work?
The major problem with the FHA policy is that it allows landlords to control the condo owners association, and that makes it very difficult for resident owners and tenants to make necessary repairs. Condo landlords are notorious for nixing any repairs not required by basic habitability laws.
I am amazed how quickly the tradition of family meals where everyone eats what they are given has gone away. Seems like all the folks I know with kids have accepted the idea that the kids should be fed whatever they'll take without a fuss.
Yeah, my granny used to feed us fish sticks and oven fries. yuk!
To your point about family meals, when is a family ever together in one place? Planned, paid-for activities like band, soccer, softball, where kids have to be driven and picked-up, seem to have replaced the several hours that as a kid, I was basically outside on my own initiative. Now there's no time everyone is together (except maybe watching TV), and not much time to spend the hour or so preparing a family meal.
"Japan is kind of the best case scenerio for extend and pretend. They've been able to do it for far longer than we could ever dream of doing ourselves."
A net positive savings rate and trade surplus are luxuries the USA does not have in support of a Japan outcome.
"wasn't the election of Obama supposed to end or at least reduce the size of our imperialist adventures? "
Him not wanting to appear soft on terror, is probably one of those "only Nixon could go to China," kind of things. Pakistan, is probably at the heart of the story now though. I do wish that there he took his word a little bit more seriously rather than avoid political risk.
Let's allow 125% LTV FHA loans.
That's right, buy a $500K condo and YOU take home $125K!
And wait, there's more!!
For a limited time only, we'll accept stated income with no documentation! ...
Ummm, wouldn't help some of my fha condo turn-downs, based of the fact
that very many condos have no reserves. One in particular was very recently
fixed up to meet the 40 year requirements, new elevators, etc, etc, but they
required reserves. I can understand that perfectly, but in Fla condos are lucky
not to have so many foreclosures that they can't function. If most everybody's
current, the building in good repair, oh, well. . . . . that is a good condo.
Reserves are waivable, under Fla law, and before you all jump all over this consider how many
of you are putting away money to repair your roof when it needs it or paint. I know
I don't; I cross that bridge when I come to it.
Last short was breakeven, earlier this week on another exhaustion gap. This market is gapping, up. It can't do that and remain sustained until the end of the parabolic curve. Thus, this would be the end of this small parabolic curve. And that means in days, if not today, the market will reverse and terminate the newbies.
I'm so long in gold and silver as they're winners at double and triple this price. But this is a game and short term, the bloodlettings occur. I'd like to be a junior GS Squid and stab my money probe into the rich veins of newbies who are sure that the only way is like RE, up, as after all, they're not making more gold at this time, either.
I'll protect myself about 10 buck up,with a stop. This is a 5:1 bet. Eric, whadda you say?
Exactly. When fear of opposing direction is palpable, that's the reversal point. We have a gap, folks. It's real. There's almost always a consequence. Either it zooms up or it cleaned the stops off the shelves and it's now gonna roll over dead. A close of 1115 means it's dead, imo. Short term of course, back down to 1045.
seem to have replaced the several hours that as a kid, I was basically outside on my own initiative
That bird no longer flies. As a kid I rode my bike all over Ft. Laud., looking for nature. Now my kids have acreage and prefer to stay indoors. It's the weirdest thing.
Eric, in all modesty, my initial positions in the 450 range, still banked, mean that you'll be still teaching while I'll be searching thru garbage dumps. I bought more silver than probably everyone posting here, combined in 2001-2004. i have every last bit of it. And it's a responsibility and a costly matter to store. My postings are extensive on this topic. But of course, I'm always eager to read a bright insightful idea; so give it up to the group..
I don't buy and silber to make money; I buy
just in case of the end of the world. the fact that I have
a little bit of both and have made money off them doesn't
mean anything. I doubt that people who own physical
gold tend to sell it much.
There are many shorts that make far more sense to me than gold at this point. I'd simply prefer that you post about trades of this nature on a reputable trading forum such as as Yahoo.
I expect him to break out in 3rd person singular soon, something like:
His initial positions in the 450 range, still banked, mean that you'll be still teaching while he'll be searching thru garbage dumps. He bought more silver than probably everyone combined in 2001-2004. He has every last bit of it. His postings are extensive on this topic. But of course, he's always eager to read a bright insightful idea; so give it up.
I know you meant this as snark, but the condo wave is one of the waves that
will bury us. I would only buy in a building that is mostly old Cuban
people. They run a tough shop and are mostly paid off.
Gavshire, for Eric, I'll liquidate half the short at 1109, picking up 6 bucks. I don't want him to be undernourished. Don't forget Eric, Dec 1, 5 pm, Bank of Buenaventura, across from the Starbucks. Wear your sombrero.
Slumdog's numbers don't mesh. Somehow he "didn't lose money" shorting glod at $1103 but now it is short at $1115. It isn't even worth trying to decode daytrader speak. That said, There's probably a dozen CR readers within 10 miles of your free cheese offer. Best he's careful with his generosity.
Debunking 'fringe conspiracy theory', criminal justice investigation of 'conspiracy', and 'institutional analysis' of organizations-
'Institutional analysis(IA) focuses on people's collective behavior in publicly known institution, as recorded in scholarly materials...to explain historical or current events rather than speculate on the motives and actions of secretive coalitions of individuals.
IA is part of the social sciences which studies how institutions...bahave and function (in practice) according to both empirical rules and also theoretical rules - formal rules and law.' (wikipedia)
In Law and criminal justice theory, a 'conspiracy' is an agreemant by two or more persons to commit a crime, fraud, or other wrongful act. (dictionary.com)
Notice avove that formal rules and law are theoretical.
My apologies. I'll just do what I do, and exit when I see profit. I post as a log proof of my integrity, posting to myself. I'll get outta here in a bit, and leave the forum to Eric.
Earlier, I asked tough econ directional questions and got Eric-like responses. I guess I gotta see how the Spam's heating up on the stove if I really want to fit in; oh, gee, there's none in the house. (The neighbor is heiress to that fortune and she's a vegetarian.)
Off topic, but that scene where Costanza pleads his case to Steinbrenner using the third person is pure gold. Hmmm, I guess maybe I am at least on topic with the off topic trading banter.
Debunking the public's criminal justice 'conspiracy' phobia...
Obviously in criminal justice, conspiracies are considered...in Madoff's case...a deal was apparently made NOT to look into a 'conspiracy'...but there are civil suits looking into it...
Anybody contributing to pay down the national debt would have to be stupid. Dumber than a rock, stupid. It would just give our politicians that much more to spend this year before hitting the debt cap:).
Perhaps I should start a banner advertising campaign for people who want to "help pay down America's debt". Suggested contributions, $20-$100. The money can go directly into my checking account and be used towards paying down my debts.
Anyone have any idea how large a % of home sales / square footage, are condos?
I was brought up to think that anything with service fees was probably a bad idea. Plus you get all the disadvantages of being in an apartment (crappy neighbors, no yard) but with none of the flexibility of just renting.
Why the heck would people want a condo, rather than simply a small house?
There is institutional analysis and theories by a long line of scholars...Marx, Max Weber, Foucault, etc...maybe some new theories need to be developed taking into consideration how Law or theoretial Law and the actual practice of Law can be subverted for 'organizational capture'...
Gotta ask: What do the other 34% do for a living that's more stressful than being in the military?!
Real Estate, clearly; it is brutal out there.
That and Management Consultant - I am reliably informed it is almost as hard as being in the Special Forces, step ahead of Marine Recon etc. That was first hand info, from a Real Management Consultant.
Japanese and American demographics compared. Noting low unemployment rate in Japan. OTOH, USA has huge internal market, and net in-migration. Not totally apples to apples, obviously.
Why the heck would people want a condo, rather than simply a small house?
On the plus side there's views, security. location, amenities and price. Urban planners made it very difficult to mantain the traditional urban SFR layout so to a large extent if you wanted to live urban you were forced into the condo pattern.
Fannie, Freddie, FHA, ratings agencies, central banks, etc. could be a good areas for institutional analysis guided by a new theory on how they work in the real world or in practice according to theoretical law...
do we not first have to acknowledge that not all jobs in the US military have the same degree of risk or stress. Not sure why flying a B-52 or B-1 bomber is that stressful a job.
Anybody contributing to pay down the national debt would have to be stupid.
I agree; it doesn't make sense to give the money directly to the government.
I'm going to send mine to JPM, then borrow it back on a Chase credit card at 30%. JPM can pay bonuses with their profit on the 3000 basis point spread and the government will get some extra income tax money off the bonuses.
just got caught up and from reading last two threads...and up this thread looks like an OT comment is in the groove
was written
volker the viking Wed, 11/11/2009 - 5:02 am
in reply to
Comrade Kristina who wrote:
I can't help but wonder why they need a license plate to show what great Christians they are down here.
--
volker said
really, I agree
After all, a discreet tattoo is sufficient, especially if located in a strategic spot ...
heres my two cents
any so called Christian is welcome to put the nicest mahogany and gold embroidered sign in the back window of their car ..or on a license plate bracket or bumper sticker on their car...declaring for all the world to see... their deep belief
so why does their message "have" to be right on the license plate pressed by the state?
clearly an attempt to link state with religion
i side with the court
btw any reasonable reading of the new testament would indicate Jesus was not in favor of public displays of symbolic religiosity
he preferred real acts of kindness and love without wearing emblems on ones sleeve
The 'fringe conspiracy theories' somehow get merged or diffused into network or institutional analysis and criminal justice investigations into 'conspiracies'...the internet is a 'melting pot'...
Jonathan, my introduction to condo living was a visit to relatives in a Ft. Lauderdale beach-front tower.
Elegant lobby. Doorman. Valet parking. Security staff. Gym - pool - beach - sauna. Planning to travel? Lock it up and fly away. Two bedrooms, two baths, about 3200 sq. ft. Large balconies over the Atlantic.
"A recent survey of over 1,000 Americans indicates that most have patiently stayed the course. Findings suggest
that, alongside significant economic indicators such as consumer confidence and new home sales, investors’
optimism about the economy as well as their outlook on their own financial recovery has begun to improve. In
fact, the majority of investors said they expect the U.S. economy to improve by the middle of 2010, and slightly
more than half of those who lost value in their investment portfolios in the last year feel they will recoup all of
their losses by the middle of 2012, according to the survey."
Anybody contributing to pay down the national debt would have to be stupid. Dumber than a rock, stupid. It would just give our politicians that much more to spend this year before hitting the debt cap:).
Not to mention that it's about as smart as paying principle on an interest-only mortgage for a hopelessly underwater property. Why throw money down a hole that you're eventually going to walk away from anyway?
Thanks. Yes I can see the attraction I guess, especially the security aspects for single women, or people away from home a lot. Or being in a fairly liquid, commodity market (under normal circumstances).
Macy's holiday outlook a turkey, stock drops
On 1:00 pm EST, Wednesday November 11, 2009
By Phil Wahba
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. department store operator Macy's Inc (NYSE:M - News) forecast earnings for the fourth quarter, which includes the crucial holiday shopping season, far below Wall Street expectations on Wednesday, sending shares down 7.9 percent.
[snip]
Macy's forecast same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, to fall between 1 percent and 2 percent in the fourth quarter.
In standard macroecomic theory or economic sociology, I wonder how much institutional analysis is given to the central banks and how they can influence economic cycles, unemployment, currency devaluations, credit bubbles, etc.
Worth a look...
OT: Is there any interest in local meetings over a beverage?
I'm in the Portland metro area have sent inquiries to those who have let everyone know they are in the PDX area and have listed contact info. I'm partial to some place like The Lucky Lab brewpub because I can bring my kid. Anyone interested can send me an email and I'll try a to organize it. Other locations will need local volunteers. The holidays are coming up...
No, I did not lose money, robdawg, it was a wash. I don't measure making 1 or 2 points or losing 1 or 2 points as anything other than transaction cost.
"Temporarily" has become one of my favorite words.
"FHA, however, will make exceptions, even allowing up to 100 percent"
Well at least the developer will be able to unload the whole disaster on to US Gov, "Temporarily."
Why not make a bad idea even better...
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Comment by Cinco-X from thread 'Orange County: Foreclosure Notices Hit Record High'
Nevertheless, when I've gotten behind folks using foodstamps, their carts have been invariably full of frozen dinners, steaks instead of hamburger, chips, and never, never fresh vegetables (which are, incidentally, a bargain compared to frozen). There was a time (early '60s) that the govt. gave away good stuff to poor folks; stuff like stone ground wheat, "real" cheese (not the processed cheese products out there now), etc. My Dad told me about buying it from the lady who babysat me before I was school age. That policy was eliminated because it presumably lowered the self esteem of poor people, and allowing them to shop in grocery stores was better.
Nemo wrote:
Honestly, I was hoping that the FHA would say that its Condo Rules were "sub-optimal".
I too am glad to see the FHA is easing condom rules.
Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower |
Environment |
The Guardian
I did a search under IEA, but could not find any other posts concerning this at CR. Apparently peak oil is here and its existence was suppressed by US.
Another backdoor bailout. Great. I don't think the Obama administration realizes how much ill will they are accumulating with the sequential investor bailouts... while jobs continue to vanish.
This does NOTHING to help the employment situation.
Only temporarily; hurry up.
Doofus wrote:
Buying a home makes me feel dirty too-
Cinco-X wrote:
Oooo... You're such a dirty buyer... You're gonna take that condo loan... Take 100% of it... You know you like it... Hu's your daddy!
pigged from the last thread
Haralambos (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 7:37 pm
* edit
* reply
burnside wrote:
+1 (!)
Thanks, burnside. I have been a student of the liberal arts for most of my 60 years, and it gave me enough independence to learn from every job I had, from grease monkey, cardboard box machine operator,and construction to the multiple skills that it takes to manage and carry out every work aspect of a good-sized restaurant in Chicago. I have also taught in three countries and learned four foreign languages. At present I am self-employed as an academic editor and my work is in demand, since I can deal with texts across the disciplines from medicine to economics to the humanities.
I think the liberal arts prepare one for what is a current buzzword in education: lifelong learning. I hope it is obvious that learned something from every job I ever had and never felt ashamed about what I did in any of them.
How do you spell temporary?
e-x-t-e-n-s-i-o-n
Bad news; it is still a shit sandwich.
Good news; now with twice as much filling!
66% See Military Service As More Stressful Than Most Other Jobs Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Gotta ask: What do the other 34% do for a living that's more stressful than being in the military?!
Outsider wrote:
How do you spell reality?
.
p-r-e-t-e-n-d
" ...through December 31, 2010"
Kick the ball past mid term elections.
Cinco-X wrote:
Work 3 or 4 part-time dead end jobs with the risk of eviction and kids going hungry always looming over?
They're in front of you in the grocery store, Mrs Grundy...
RIght. And Japan is in a temporary slump after their stock and real estate bubbles.
Cinco-X wrote:
Friends and family in the military and paying taxes.
Rob Dawg wrote:
hahahahaha - hey, now waittaminnut...I ordered the salmon mousse!
yagij wrote:
Hmmm......being shot at by the enemy, and in at least one case your "friends", or working your @$$ off and going hungry. Tough choice.
FHA = the new subprime.
Rob Dawg wrote:
The lesser of two evils-
Cinco-X wrote:
I think you are thinking too narrowly in regards to "military service". Being a latrine cleaner on a battleship/carrier or a joystick jockey for a predator is surely less stressful than being a meat shield out on patrol in southern Afghanistan, yes?
Must be those very productive bankers right, they are the most productive member of society!
Seriously though, look at anyone who provides work in hands on health care, police, anyone engaging in high risk productive work which requires doing things like trucking across the country oh and those guys that go out on those fishing vessels in the Bering Straight of course
. Probably the largest group are those who are participating in reality TV shows and are forced to eat bugs.
Gotta ask: What do the other 34% do for a living that's more stressful than being in the military?!
Unless you're in the heat of battle, what's so stressful about being in the military? You get free health care, guaranteed pension, college is paid for and you don't have to worry about being laid off. Doesn't sound so stressful to me. Better than being perpetually unemployed in the deep south.
yagij wrote:
True; I guess I base it on my own experience in the military. BTW, s many of the jobs in the Navy that are support are actually quite dangerous. If you work on the flight deck of a carrier, you're risking your life whether it's peacetime or not. I guess the really cushy jobs are in the Air Farce-
Not sure of the current "point of spear":"REMF" is, but in the USAF the grunts missed most of the fun while the officers were out doing the combat stuff...that ran about 1:10 IIRC...'course, the "REMF" role is not as cushy in the current conflicts by all accounts (there just isn't as much RE to go around)...
I think it is unfair that condo developers have to work so hard getting their bailout money through piddly little FHA loans that involve a bunch of burdensome paperwork.
Why can't they just get ten billion dollars at a pop directly from the TARP like Goldman Sachs?
What we need is a bunch of middle-aged white guys with chainsaws to fix all these unreasonable regulations.
BTW, s many of the jobs in the Navy that are support are actually quite dangerous.
So is roofing but I wouldn't classify it as a stressful job.
I know Japan is a favorite analogy for one possible outcome of our current troubles. Having just returned from "wagakuni" after visits with the wife's family (Japanese) I have to say that's a pretty darn good outcome for the average person. Quality of life is good. If that's how all this doom ends up, I can live with that. Better than Iceland probably but I've never been there so I can't say what it's like for the average guy..
albrt wrote:
Fat, middled-aged white guys: Putting the "cut" in red-tape cutters
energyecon wrote:
I believe the Tooth:Tail ratio is much smaller than in other recent conflicts. Much of the "REMF" work has been outsourced to contractors if I'm not mistaken. BTW, the Tooth:Tail ratio was about 25:1 in Vietnam (IIRC), but was half that or less in WWII.
TCA wrote:
I've done it; it's not that bad. On the other hand, having the potential for a catapult cable or a landing cable break an decapitate you is stressful.
"Gotta ask: What do the other 34% do for a living that's more stressful than being in the military?! "
Cop, teacher, nurse, IT?
Just another teensy piece of straw on FHA's back.
T J & Bear made a good point the other day - enough with the foreplay, just pass every spending bill and bail out every bad investment so we can get on with the $US collapse.
It's always in the top-ten list of most dangerous jobs.
TCA wrote:
I believe that tree work is one of the very most dangerous, but I loved doing it when I was younger.
Wow, I can't wait to buy me a new condo! Now I just have to find a community with a robust job market, cultural amentities, fantastic school system, hopeful and happy citizenry, a vibrant and resilient down-town surrounded by a peaceful and quiet suburban area overflowing with natural beauty and recreational opportunities, low taxes, a growing population of highly-educated and creative citizens of diverse skills and age groups, and a well-stocked public library system all connected with comfortable, safe, and timely free public transportation.
I have narrowed my choices to Munchkin City, Hobbiton or Bree, or maybe Avalon, the blessed isle. I will also consider Shangri La, although i am told the language barrier can be a bit of a sticky wicket.
Despite stimulus, builders brace for chilly winter
Cinco-X wrote:
It was probably because the grocery stores had good lobbyists.
~splat
The condo market is trying to tell Bernanke that it is still way overpriced and that prices should go down or just be turned into rental units owned by the government with low rents. But Bernanke is not happy with this. He has this pipedream, mathematical vision that he can still balance the economy on a pin head and recreate asset inflation in ALL real estate and financial instruments instead of working to produce good paying jobs for his fellow Americans. Did anyone hear him talk about outsourcing, insourcing, or illegals? Same with Godman sucks?
Groundhogday, Ill will from who? Certainly not the NAR nor the MBA or any of the other extend and pretend folks.
The oil ran out in the 60's it's just been one big conspiracy to make us all think it's still there..
~splat
Cinco-X wrote:
My mother was a public health nurse in her younger years before staying home to raise us monkeys - after we entered school she returned but only as a volunteer. One of the things she did was work with Planned Parenthood to teach new [mostly poor & uneducated] mothers how to cook inexpensive & nutritious meals... to her dying day she was horrified by the lack of knowledge... it was like a whole generation never learned the basics.
That should be a bullet point on any future 'stimulus' package - hire some nutritionists & PHNs to get out there to re-educate both poor & middle class alike on how to get by well for less. You won't pick that up watching food commercials or reading Martha Stewart or 'Real Simple'...
Ben to the FOMC, "As long as equities go UP, it doesn't matter what else happens in America."
Military wife with kids.
~splat
Dryfly, ot, but did you say awhile back that labor represented 10% of the cost of making goods? If so, was that the Chinese or American marketplace?
I was just thinking the other day that these rules were in need of a bailout.
The FHA is like a guy desperately trying to get laid...just keeps lowering standards.
dryfly wrote:
You nailed it, and this same effect extends to other aspects of being poor. Gotta go-
Being a soldier is a comparatively safe occupation. You're in a lot more actual danger being a convenience store clerk, for example.
curlydan wrote:
If it is the FHA looking to get laid why are we the ones getting screwed?
Winston wrote:
Nothing like being a conservative on this board-
The only real risks in IT are:
1. an unsecured rack falling on you
2. a coworker going postal after the current round of layoffs when his job was moved to India
I have yet to encounter IEDs or snipers in an average IT dept.
~splat
splat wrote:
Have you met Broward?
t r orwell wrote:
First off - it varies & also depends on what you call 'labor'... usually we clarify and call it 'direct labor' as opposed to office & other indirect overhead costs.
So given that - 10% of the cost of most products you buy is 'direct labor'. I can be as low as almost 0% for commodities [I worked in a plant like that once - only 150 employees total, plant & office, for an almost $1B facility]... to as high as say 30% [manual assembly - not much capital]. The typical facility is about 10%.
That is for NAFTA Zone plants but would expect modern plants in China to be similar.
Cinco-X wrote:
oh bullshit, cinco - equating military service with a combat role is flat out wrong as you yourself noted - and lets tally up who here has raised their right hand and sworn to uphold the Constitution as the supreme law of the land, starting with you, then me and notable others and I think you'll find the political sock puppet labeling doesn't have jackshit to do with it
If it is the FHA looking to get laid why are we the ones getting screwed?
It's very COnfusing. If Goldman Sachs is truly doing God's work, why are they fleecing rather than washing the unclean masses?
Risk of death or dismemberment is somewhat overrated, with regard to stress. I've worked both help desk and military service, and I'd much prefer the latter, from a stress perspective.
Another risk in IT is getting an brain aneurism after seeing the latest design document for the software project that was outsourced that you will end up supporting after the install goes live.
For those with internet access, there are a huge number of cooking websites with plenty of cheap, nutritious recipes.
My wife and I mainly eat our own soups and stews, bread, quiches, curries, pies supplemented by occasional packaged food like pizza or bertolis.
It seems like, more than the availability of inexpensive ingredients or recipes, non-cooking families with kids have a significant hurdle to get over, in that it's a significant risk to cook a meal that kids then just flat reject. If kids are being fed fat and sugar filled garbage at school, then it's going to take a while to get them to eat 'less tasty' healthy food.
The food-industry-complex in this country has a LOT to answer for. It's worth thinking about how they managed to get in a position such that their crap filled garbage has managed to create an obesity epidemic like no other country has ever seen.
@Winston: As a teenager, I delivered pizza to a military base in my hometown. Most of the soldiers just seemed downright bored. I honestly can't tell you how many I encountered that advised me to "never go into the military". Happened maybe at least once a night. Honestly.
energyecon wrote:
You know, I can't remember if there was anything about the constitution in that oath or not. The part where they tell you to bend over and grab your ankles was more memorable than the oath part, but I was enlisted and we didn't get much in the way of ceremony.
Cinco-X wrote:
Jeez. How about working in some dangerous occupation without health-benefits and having a kid or two. Conservative patriotic BS is as disgusting as the liberal guilt BS.
kind of interesting that the stock markets are open on Veterans Day.
Basel Too wrote:
You'll be happy to know my zombie bank is closed tho. We are thanking our veterans for defending socialism against the godless commies (Or something like that).
Stress is figuring out how to meet a payroll when you don't have the cash to cover it.
Mannwich,
I believe it. One of my friends after getting divorced ended up taking a chemical holiday for about a year. He was able to stay drunk and high for so long because he had a couple of army friends who hated to drink alone and put him up in their apartment off base for entertainment value.
Jonathan wrote:
I am amazed how quickly the tradition of family meals where everyone eats what they are given has gone away. Seems like all the folks I know with kids have accepted the idea that the kids should be fed whatever they'll take without a fuss. You can't even plan a big meal at a family event - the parents all say the kids have to be fed hot dogs or whatever before the adults sit down to the main meal.
It was a pretty memorable moment for me. Maybe not so much so, for those who were drafted. Coming from a family where both my Grandfathers, all 3 uncles, father and now son, have served or are serving, it is a pretty big deal.
I, (NAME), do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God.
For the life of me, I do not see how those moves will 'boost the condo market'. It looks to me like they would encourage building of more condos... which is the precise opposite of boosting the market.
One of us must live in a peculiar social circle. Among my friends, nearly all the ones with kidlets have family dinners where the kids eat whatever the parents are eating. I can only think of one family that I personally know who don't do that kind of family meals.
"For the life of me, I do not see how those moves will 'boost the condo market'. It looks to me like they would encourage building of more condos... which is the precise opposite of boosting the market."
This should allow more people to get an FHA loan for a condo purchase which should get some of the glut off the market.
albrt wrote:
+1
Operators are temporarily standing by, call now.
dryfly, let's assume that the cost of labor for Chinese manufactured goods represent 10% of their total cost. Let's assume that all other costs of the product produced in China and the US are the same. Let's guesstimate that the average Chinese wages for manufacturing is 60 cents per hour versus $20 per hour in the US. So, the cost of the same manufactured product produced here in the US would be .9 plus (20/.60) times .1 for a grand total of 4.2 in the US. In other words, it costs 4.2 times as much to produce the same product here in the US. Quite a difference!
Skittles the Unicorn wrote:
Japan is kind of the best case scenerio for extend and pretend. They've been able to do it for far longer than we could ever dream of doing ourselves. They have a lot of factors that help their extending and pretending that we don't have. But even they're bumping up against the cliff at this point.
Cinco-X...Agreed...in spades.
wore the stripes on my sleeve as well - you're thinking of the "obey all lawful orders of your superiors" part
The only way these two sentences work together is if the cost of labor in the US and China is the same.
When the FHA is the only game in town, I can clearly see how they think this will have a beneficial effect. I don't think they will like so much the new price discovery and move downs that will happen as a result though.
That argument would imply that the cost of labor for American manufactured goods is about 80% of total cost. Dryfly would know better than I, but that doesn't seem plausible.
Blackhalo wrote:
yep
Chicago Dude, awhile back, it was dryfly that was talking about the cost of labor representing 10% of the cost of manufactured goods.
Eric, wake up. Shorting spot gold 1115. 1/3 of short term position. See y'a at 1045.
When the trade works, I'll be handing out real cheese to y'a so you got something t'a chew on. Don't like seein' great braincells go unnourished. You show up in Oxnard where I'm sure you'll blend right in, at the now FDIC'd Bank of Buenaventura. Let's say Dec 1, 5 pm, after you get off work?
The major problem with the FHA policy is that it allows landlords to control the condo owners association, and that makes it very difficult for resident owners and tenants to make necessary repairs. Condo landlords are notorious for nixing any repairs not required by basic habitability laws.
albrt wrote:
Yeah, my granny used to feed us fish sticks and oven fries. yuk!
To your point about family meals, when is a family ever together in one place? Planned, paid-for activities like band, soccer, softball, where kids have to be driven and picked-up, seem to have replaced the several hours that as a kid, I was basically outside on my own initiative. Now there's no time everyone is together (except maybe watching TV), and not much time to spend the hour or so preparing a family meal.
Speaking of the military, wasn't the election of Obama supposed to end or at least reduce the size of our imperialist adventures?
A net positive savings rate and trade surplus are luxuries the USA does not have in support of a Japan outcome.
May we suppose, then, that we'll see FHA generate data on condominium sales and overhang?
Blackhalo - interesting on price discovery and move downs. Reflected in abstracts and summaries, or buried in data sets?
Obamachev & Co. claim that they haven't made a decision yet on whether to render upwards of 40k, into the sandbox...
Methinks they were trying to gauge the reaction of the hoi ploy, by leaking it~
"wasn't the election of Obama supposed to end or at least reduce the size of our imperialist adventures? "
Him not wanting to appear soft on terror, is probably one of those "only Nixon could go to China," kind of things. Pakistan, is probably at the heart of the story now though. I do wish that there he took his word a little bit more seriously rather than avoid political risk.
Slumdog wrote:
What are you doing! Gold can only go up! They're not making any more of it, you know.
Did you happen to get the license plate number of the steamroller that ran over you, whilst you were eagerly picking up pennies in front of it?
doug r, either slumdog words wil live in infamy for him or he becomes the new goldman who doesn't suck.
Good thing Nixon only temporarily suspended the convertibility of the dollar back in 1971.
imagine if he'd made it permanent.
YouTube - Nixon Ends Bretton Woods International Monetary System
Why stop there?
Let's allow 125% LTV FHA loans.
That's right, buy a $500K condo and YOU take home $125K!
And wait, there's more!!
For a limited time only, we'll accept stated income with no documentation! ...
Here we go again. YIKES
Ummm, wouldn't help some of my fha condo turn-downs, based of the fact
that very many condos have no reserves. One in particular was very recently
fixed up to meet the 40 year requirements, new elevators, etc, etc, but they
required reserves. I can understand that perfectly, but in Fla condos are lucky
not to have so many foreclosures that they can't function. If most everybody's
current, the building in good repair, oh, well. . . . . that is a good condo.
Reserves are waivable, under Fla law, and before you all jump all over this consider how many
of you are putting away money to repair your roof when it needs it or paint. I know
I don't; I cross that bridge when I come to it.
Last short was breakeven, earlier this week on another exhaustion gap. This market is gapping, up. It can't do that and remain sustained until the end of the parabolic curve. Thus, this would be the end of this small parabolic curve. And that means in days, if not today, the market will reverse and terminate the newbies.
I'm so long in gold and silver as they're winners at double and triple this price. But this is a game and short term, the bloodlettings occur. I'd like to be a junior GS Squid and stab my money probe into the rich veins of newbies who are sure that the only way is like RE, up, as after all, they're not making more gold at this time, either.
I'll protect myself about 10 buck up,with a stop. This is a 5:1 bet. Eric, whadda you say?
Wow, gold @ 1115. Sure, it'll go down - but how soon? I wouldn't bet against it right now.
How come we get the mishrejex?
Exactly. When fear of opposing direction is palpable, that's the reversal point. We have a gap, folks. It's real. There's almost always a consequence. Either it zooms up or it cleaned the stops off the shelves and it's now gonna roll over dead. A close of 1115 means it's dead, imo. Short term of course, back down to 1045.
There's always the 'ignore' button.
Of course, if
keeps going up, he'll just fade away like Jas.
slumdog, I am glad you qualified your original statement since I know you always place stops no matter how sure you are on the trade.
seem to have replaced the several hours that as a kid, I was basically outside on my own initiative
That bird no longer flies. As a kid I rode my bike all over Ft. Laud., looking for nature. Now my kids have acreage and prefer to stay indoors. It's the weirdest thing.
Only one of the precious metals is making a new record high daily, the rest had their day in the sun, long ago...
It's hard to imagine, but the borscht belt boys got palladium up to around $1200, a decade ago~
This is a 5:1 bet. Eric, whadda you say?
Only 5:1? Why not lever up 10000000:1. After all, I heard someone say you never lost.
I dislike challenge much more than temporary.
Whenever someone uses the word challenge, substitute the word disaster
and you will be far more accurate.
Eric, in all modesty, my initial positions in the 450 range, still banked, mean that you'll be still teaching while I'll be searching thru garbage dumps. I bought more silver than probably everyone posting here, combined in 2001-2004. i have every last bit of it. And it's a responsibility and a costly matter to store. My postings are extensive on this topic. But of course, I'm always eager to read a bright insightful idea; so give it up to the group..
is'nt slumdog short glod? he's never ever lost money... so i'm not worried about getting a chance lower...
Sorry, Eric, you're on your own to figure things out. Best.
which brings up another issue....
Who's part of the steering committee for new icons(smiley's)
we need a 'pawn' and i still wany my own monkey playin the drums
Where's the subsidy for the condo owners association (COA)? No good gubmint program will survive without a backup program.
I don't buy
and silber to make money; I buy
just in case of the end of the world. the fact that I have
a little bit of both and have made money off them doesn't
mean anything. I doubt that people who own physical
gold tend to sell it much.
There are many shorts that make far more sense to me than gold at this point. I'd simply prefer that you post about trades of this nature on a reputable trading forum such as as Yahoo.
initial positions in the blah blah blah range . . . I bought more blah blah blah 2001-2004.
I think this sums it up.
I expect him to break out in 3rd person singular soon, something like:
His initial positions in the 450 range, still banked, mean that you'll be still teaching while he'll be searching thru garbage dumps. He bought more silver than probably everyone combined in 2001-2004. He has every last bit of it. His postings are extensive on this topic. But of course, he's always eager to read a bright insightful idea; so give it up.
I know you meant this as snark, but the condo wave is one of the waves that
will bury us. I would only buy in a building that is mostly old Cuban
people. They run a tough shop and are mostly paid off.
slumdog,
If you're so smart, how many pounds of silver would it take to equal the weight of an ounce of gold?
"Why would George steal a towel?"
Gavshire, for Eric, I'll liquidate half the short at 1109, picking up 6 bucks. I don't want him to be undernourished. Don't forget Eric, Dec 1, 5 pm, Bank of Buenaventura, across from the Starbucks. Wear your sombrero.
Is it the same as the number of ounces of feathers?
Slumdog -- I don't care!
Jimmy knows more about precious metals, than all of you combined.
Rich, duh, help me out.
I think for Christmas, I want large hunks of gold jewelry.
Slumdog's numbers don't mesh. Somehow he "didn't lose money" shorting glod at $1103 but now it is short at $1115. It isn't even worth trying to decode daytrader speak. That said, There's probably a dozen CR readers within 10 miles of your free cheese offer. Best he's careful with his generosity.
rich wrote:
Can you state the question in metric for those of us who've been blessed in avoiding that imperial--gasp!--measurement system?
In Florida, only if the condo has reserves.
Elsewhere???
Institutional analysis (network analysis, organization analysis, economic sociology)...
Debunking 'fringe conspiracy theory', criminal justice investigation of 'conspiracy', and 'institutional analysis' of organizations-
'Institutional analysis(IA) focuses on people's collective behavior in publicly known institution, as recorded in scholarly materials...to explain historical or current events rather than speculate on the motives and actions of secretive coalitions of individuals.
IA is part of the social sciences which studies how institutions...bahave and function (in practice) according to both empirical rules and also theoretical rules - formal rules and law.' (wikipedia)
In Law and criminal justice theory, a 'conspiracy' is an agreemant by two or more persons to commit a crime, fraud, or other wrongful act. (dictionary.com)
Notice avove that formal rules and law are theoretical.
Surely, Slum, Nov 09 TBT calls are a good idea, with 30-years likely to be pounded, albeit briefly, tomorrow.
Of course, the big-O being in Japan maybe the wildcard. Do you feel lucky punk?
Cheese louise!
like this cheese shop in the United Kingdom.
My apologies. I'll just do what I do, and exit when I see profit. I post as a log proof of my integrity, posting to myself. I'll get outta here in a bit, and leave the forum to Eric.
Earlier, I asked tough econ directional questions and got Eric-like responses. I guess I gotta see how the Spam's heating up on the stove if I really want to fit in; oh, gee, there's none in the house. (The neighbor is heiress to that fortune and she's a vegetarian.)
fha??? Condos??? Nobody wants to be relevant?
Bleh, off to eat and work.
Edit: didn't fha run out of money or something???
energyecon wrote:
Off topic, but that scene where Costanza pleads his case to Steinbrenner using the third person is pure gold. Hmmm, I guess maybe I am at least on topic with the off topic trading banter.
Not to interject and ruin this stimulating conversation, but this headline gets me peeved:
Plan on donating? Consider Uncle Sam - Nov. 11, 2009
Jimmy thinks maybe Mish will take him back in the fold, yeah-that's the ticket.
Dawg, the next day I closed the trade at 1103-5. I posted in real time, as I always do, what I was doing.
Jimmy doesn't know why nobody else day-trades the barbarous.
Debunking the public's criminal justice 'conspiracy' phobia...
Obviously in criminal justice, conspiracies are considered...in Madoff's case...a deal was apparently made NOT to look into a 'conspiracy'...but there are civil suits looking into it...
uhhhh....$6 on an 1105 trade? that's less than 1%? and you've never lost money, but take winners that quickly....
hmmmm
actually....we need a another new smiley.... either horse manure or cow pies should do.
Anybody contributing to pay down the national debt would have to be stupid. Dumber than a rock, stupid. It would just give our politicians that much more to spend this year before hitting the debt cap:).
Perhaps I should start a banner advertising campaign for people who want to "help pay down America's debt". Suggested contributions, $20-$100. The money can go directly into my checking account and be used towards paying down my debts.
Slumdog wrote:
So you did lose money on the turn.
Anyone have any idea how large a % of home sales / square footage, are condos?
I was brought up to think that anything with service fees was probably a bad idea. Plus you get all the disadvantages of being in an apartment (crappy neighbors, no yard) but with none of the flexibility of just renting.
Why the heck would people want a condo, rather than simply a small house?
There is institutional analysis and theories by a long line of scholars...Marx, Max Weber, Foucault, etc...maybe some new theories need to be developed taking into consideration how Law or theoretial Law and the actual practice of Law can be subverted for 'organizational capture'...
I might suggest having a 'baked' sale, to raise funds.
I have no idea HU would help pay down the national debt.
Real Estate, clearly; it is brutal out there.
That and Management Consultant - I am reliably informed it is almost as hard as being in the Special Forces, step ahead of Marine Recon etc. That was first hand info, from a Real Management Consultant.
Japanese and American demographics compared. Noting low unemployment rate in Japan. OTOH, USA has huge internal market, and net in-migration. Not totally apples to apples, obviously.
Do Demographics Doom Us To Repeat Japan?
Jonathan wrote:
On the plus side there's views, security. location, amenities and price. Urban planners made it very difficult to mantain the traditional urban SFR layout so to a large extent if you wanted to live urban you were forced into the condo pattern.
Fannie, Freddie, FHA, ratings agencies, central banks, etc. could be a good areas for institutional analysis guided by a new theory on how they work in the real world or in practice according to theoretical law...
TCA wrote:
do we not first have to acknowledge that not all jobs in the US military have the same degree of risk or stress. Not sure why flying a B-52 or B-1 bomber is that stressful a job.
Gavshire Hathaway wrote:
I agree; it doesn't make sense to give the money directly to the government.
I'm going to send mine to JPM, then borrow it back on a Chase credit card at 30%. JPM can pay bonuses with their profit on the 3000 basis point spread and the government will get some extra income tax money off the bonuses.
just got caught up and from reading last two threads...and up this thread looks like an OT comment is in the groove
was written
volker the viking Wed, 11/11/2009 - 5:02 am
in reply to
Comrade Kristina who wrote:
I can't help but wonder why they need a license plate to show what great Christians they are down here.
--
volker said
really, I agree
After all, a discreet tattoo is sufficient, especially if located in a strategic spot ...
heres my two cents
any so called Christian is welcome to put the nicest mahogany and gold embroidered sign in the back window of their car ..or on a license plate bracket or bumper sticker on their car...declaring for all the world to see... their deep belief
so why does their message "have" to be right on the license plate pressed by the state?
clearly an attempt to link state with religion
i side with the court
btw any reasonable reading of the new testament would indicate Jesus was not in favor of public displays of symbolic religiosity
he preferred real acts of kindness and love without wearing emblems on ones sleeve
i hear operating a drone is pretty stressful...
Jimmy is like that guy on the E-Trade tv commercial that exclaims he's trading in Hong Kong, only better.
Thanks for the tile, otishertz!
The 'fringe conspiracy theories' somehow get merged or diffused into network or institutional analysis and criminal justice investigations into 'conspiracies'...the internet is a 'melting pot'...
Jonathan, my introduction to condo living was a visit to relatives in a Ft. Lauderdale beach-front tower.
Elegant lobby. Doorman. Valet parking. Security staff. Gym - pool - beach - sauna. Planning to travel? Lock it up and fly away. Two bedrooms, two baths, about 3200 sq. ft. Large balconies over the Atlantic.
There are reasons to like them.
kcoop wrote:
Beat me to it. Yes, a generous soul indeed. Now, what does it mean?
"A recent survey of over 1,000 Americans indicates that most have patiently stayed the course. Findings suggest
that, alongside significant economic indicators such as consumer confidence and new home sales, investors’
optimism about the economy as well as their outlook on their own financial recovery has begun to improve. In
fact, the majority of investors said they expect the U.S. economy to improve by the middle of 2010, and slightly
more than half of those who lost value in their investment portfolios in the last year feel they will recoup all of
their losses by the middle of 2012, according to the survey."
http://www.scottrade.com/researchstudy/library/media/2009_Scottrade_American_Investor_Survey_White_Paper.pdf
CAUTION: PDF file
Gavshire Hathaway wrote:
Not to mention that it's about as smart as paying principle on an interest-only mortgage for a hopelessly underwater property. Why throw money down a hole that you're eventually going to walk away from anyway?
A couple of recommended antipodean accounts of the war to end all wars, that ended today, 91 years ago~
"Mud Beneath My Boots" & "Somme Mud"
War is indeed hell.
Mervyn's latest. Come to think of it, the U.K. is more fucked than the USA, at the moment.
King Gives BOE Room as Bernanke, Trichet Signal Exit (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Looking for answers to the Boom/Bust in institutional analysis and organizational theories...
'Since the 1980's, there are cross pollinations between the sociological and economic traditions in institutional analysis...'(Wikipedia)
scone wrote:
UK = a great big Iceland with better ruins and worse teeth.
It's the electrodes attached to your 'stones' that gets your attention, as the commander says...''dont' crash our $15mm drone"
(scone - a moose walked thru my yard this morning. You're gonna love it here.
)
Dawg and burnside,
Thanks. Yes I can see the attraction I guess, especially the security aspects for single women, or people away from home a lot. Or being in a fairly liquid, commodity market (under normal circumstances).
Macy's holiday outlook a turkey, stock drops
On 1:00 pm EST, Wednesday November 11, 2009
By Phil Wahba
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. department store operator Macy's Inc (NYSE:M - News) forecast earnings for the fourth quarter, which includes the crucial holiday shopping season, far below Wall Street expectations on Wednesday, sending shares down 7.9 percent.
[snip]
Macy's forecast same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, to fall between 1 percent and 2 percent in the fourth quarter.
Macy's holiday outlook a turkey, stock drops - Yahoo! Finance
In standard macroecomic theory or economic sociology, I wonder how much institutional analysis is given to the central banks and how they can influence economic cycles, unemployment, currency devaluations, credit bubbles, etc.
Worth a look...
OT: Is there any interest in local meetings over a beverage?
I'm in the Portland metro area have sent inquiries to those who have let everyone know they are in the PDX area and have listed contact info. I'm partial to some place like The Lucky Lab brewpub because I can bring my kid. Anyone interested can send me an email and I'll try a to organize it. Other locations will need local volunteers. The holidays are coming up...
Lead is a better investment in case of the end of the world
~splat
No, I did not lose money, robdawg, it was a wash. I don't measure making 1 or 2 points or losing 1 or 2 points as anything other than transaction cost.
energyecon wrote:
C'mon; get a sense of humor-