CBRE Econometric Advisors ... predicts in a report to be released today that available space in U.S. shopping centers will reach 12.9% in next year's fourth quarter, up from 12.2% in this year's third quarter. The vacancy rate will then "hover around that peak for at least several quarters," ... That surpasses the peak vacancy rate for retail in the early 1990s, which hit 11.3% in 1992.
CBRE predicts that the rates, now at an average of $21.92 a square foot, won't start rising until 2013 ...
I love an article that opens with: Landlords and brokers are busy debating how the Great Recession compares with the real-estate disaster of the early 1990s. In retail, the verdict is clear: This time is worse.
Odd graph: "Purchasing power since 1560". Hell, I have a tough time believing the CPI from the past decade, and they can measure back to 1560 without error bars?
Gee, big banks might not be hurt by small banks going under if only Treasury covers the FDIC's losses "just this once" (Bird and Fortune). The TBTF will pay back every penny, if enough is left after record bonuses. Why should a successful, "healthy" bank have to pay for a small banks foolish risk, anyway.
I believe the biggest 4 banks only have a few hundred $trillion exposure to derivatives. That's well capitalized, because it's all insured, by Ambac, AIG, Ice Trust... Oh, wait.
I love an article that opens with: Landlords and brokers are busy debating how the Great Recession compares with the real-estate disaster of the early 1990s. In retail, the verdict is clear: This time is worse.
I wonder if their view is skewed by region - as bad as it is it seems to me where I am as far less ugly than late 80s S&L.
Everyone seems to think the bare shelves and spread out racks in stores is a sign of expectations of a grim Christmas, but I've thought it's a sign of a lack of credit.
"Full faith and credit" was always backed up by US economic might. It's a 'last man standing' bet.
Everyone thinks the past dollar strength was due to our ability to deliver gold for dollars on a set standard. It wasn't - it was our ability to deliver steel, wheat, wood, machine tools, etc. in exchange for currency [dollars, precious metal & otherwise] that could be used to either acquire other goods or PM reserves or other currencies. Until we can again make good on our debts & fulfill our appetites via production of goods & services our full faith & credit is broken. California like in everything is just ahead of the curve.
So I posted the link earlier where Merkel said in a speech that Germany hasn't seen the worst of this downturn yet and 2010 is going to suck pretty hard. I find that admission amazing for a major head of state. I can't imagine anyone in the O-admin willing to say something like that.
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said a strong dollar is in the nation’s interest and the government recognizes the importance it plays in the global financial system.
“I believe deeply that it’s very important to the United States, to the economic health of the United States, that we maintain a strong dollar,” Geithner told reporters in Tokyo today.
Evidently the reporters had heard the joke before and he didn't get so much as a chuckle. 'In Chinese it's funnier', he said afterward.
Everyone seems to think the bare shelves and spread out racks in stores is a sign of expectations of a grim Christmas, but I've thought it's a sign of a lack of credit.
quite honestly, i haven't noticed this anywhere. i guess things are different elsewhere in the country.
Do you know what to look for? The storage containers aren't nested, they have lids on them and are stacked, small stuff like batteries have more hooks devoted to them. Furniture is laid out on the floor, the aisles are just a little wider, cheaper products occupy more visual space. Special displays are set up with room to move around them. Etc.
edit: They know marketing. A lot will be in the less traveled area, they're going to make sure the main aisles look busy.
Everyone seems to think the bare shelves and spread out racks in stores is a sign of expectations of a grim Christmas, but I've thought it's a sign of a lack of credit.
quite honestly, i haven't noticed this anywhere. i guess things are different elsewhere in the country.
I have & think it is just 'smart' inventory mgmt - if sales are lower then carry less on the floor produces the same turnover [turnover defined as inventory value/sales per unit time]. These folks aren't all dummies.
EDIT: actually bassackwards... turns are sales/inventory... inventory/sales is a measure of how long it takes to turn once...
I see in Dodd's bill he requires them to keep 10% of the risk. That's meeping ridiculous. I propose they tie the risk to the time of the underlying security. For example; if you make a 30 year loan you cannot securitize that loan until 10 years from the time the loan is made. And even when you do that you have to carry 25% of the risk.
If the major central banks all start buying gold, the heat turns up-- it's a bit of an undercover trade war. No, that's wrong. It's more like a circle jerk crossed with Russian roulette.
Robertson said that living with less has made him appreciate his church even more and he has raised his tithe payment to the church to 10 percent of his income.
“Even once my salary rises I’ll continue to do that,” he said. Another thing he said that will continue is that he intends to live within his means and not buy into America’s consumer culture any more.
“We don’t have to have the latest TV to enjoy life,” he said. “Sure, I’d like to have that TV. But unless I can pay for it in cash, I’m not going to buy it.”
This about sums up where my wife and I are this year. Presents for the nephews, giftcards for a few folks, and homemade bbq rub and baking favors for everyone else. We haven't stopped spending money, but we've redirected it from eating out and buying crap to getting more on top of house/car maintenance etc.
this puts me in a predicament; I don't know whom to believe, GM or the government... oh nevermind, a $50B repayment is to be in the form of newly-issued stock. Yeah, and I value my building a $2B, if anyone's interested.
Chairman Says G.M. Can Repay Taxpayers - NY Times The chairman of General Motors, Edward E. Whitacre Jr., said Tuesday that the automaker would be able to repay all of its government loans and would begin doing so soon.
A government report released last week concluded that taxpayers are unlikely to receive full repayment of the more than $81 billion lent to rescue G.M. and Chrysler. But Mr. Whitacre, speaking at a small college near his home in Texas, insisted that G.M. intended to repay its full debt to the Treasury Department, excluding the nearly $1 billion lent to the old part of G.M. that remains in bankruptcy.
apologies if this is a re-peat and yes its OT but relates to our meltdown concerns
if you are not already having sleepless nights
this story is guaranteed to push you over the edge
about how hackers have compromised and downloaded terabytes of top secret information from DOD computers
money quote:
"Jim Lewis, who directs the Technology and Public Policy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says that the United States experienced its "electronic Pearl Harbor" in 2007:
Lewis said, "Some unknown foreign power, and honestly, we don't know who it is, broke into the Department of Defense, to the Department of State, the Department of Commerce, probably the Department of Energy, probably NASA. They broke into all of the high tech agencies, all of the military agencies, and downloaded terabytes of information."
Conservative leaning fellow goes to Huffington Post and sees this headline:
Freddie, Fannie get rid of their Inspector General: There is no independent auditor overseeing the federal agency responsible for some $6 trillion in home mortgages, because the Department of Justice's Office of Legal Counsel ruled that the agency's inspector general didn't have authority to operate, according to internal memos obtained by the Huffington Post. The ruling came in response to a request from the Federal Housing Finance Agency itself -- which means that a federal agency essentially succeeded in getting rid of its own inspector general.
The FHFA is home to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks, which are jointly responsible for purchasing or guaranteeing more than 80 percent of new mortgages issued since the middle of 2008, according to FHFA numbers. In September, the Department of Justice ruled that FHFA Inspector General Ed Kelley did not have authority to investigate wrongdoing or other abuses related to the agency, according to an internal DOJ Office of Legal Counsel memo signed by Deputy Assistant Attorney General Daniel Koffsky.
A CB could use the sale/purchase of gold to influence the money supply, especially since Au is risk-weighted same as cash/treasuries.
I have been saying that forever - it is the nuclear option when fighting deflation... buy gold. The CB removes [hoards] PM and replaces it with fiat... the higher the PM goes in price the more 'efficient' the exchange [fewer tons of metal needed to buy & store per 'ton' of paper produced & distributed]. Once the CB has done enough it could either sit on its 'valuation' of metal or reverse the process [sell metal to sop up excess paper]. Balance sheet looks fine either way.
Talk about fighting fire with fire.
I have been waiting for this for a long time though not smart [or crazy] enough to play with them - I like to sleep at night even if it is the dreams of a poor man.
HCN - kcoop is aware but has another pressing engagement.
I knew that he was aware, but I didn't know if the problem appeared across browser platforms. Seems to be fine in IE 7, but the problem is I'm using IE 7.
.
Edit: (in reply to...) works in IE 7.0, but using [Save] does not work all the way. It is similar to FF 3.5.x in that the message is saved, but the comment box isn't "minimized".
GM and $81,000,000,000 repayment....on a four square deal sheet
9,000,000 cars/year
ok that's an extra $9g's per car
@ $150/month for 60 months....
ok, i guess it's possible in theory, to get consumers to overpay this much for there cars. we are, after all, americans...and are used to overpaying for things....healthcare, taxes, now cars....i think i ma need a second job...
Trivially easy to figure out who. First, who has the manpower to sift terabytes of anything? Second, look for an increase in foreign access to porn sites as they attempt to follow links back. Third, look for an increase in foreign emails with US government speak embedded. Fourth, look for a government energy policy enthusiastic about ethanol and coal. Etc.
KOFY is reporting that California is already expecting another 7B deficit through June 2010 and another 7.5B the following year. So another 14.5B in possible cuts coming.
A man has (16 X 7) = 112 hours available per week.
He spends 40 hours at work (production) and 72 hours in leisure (consumption).
He consumes what he produces.
Over time, he doubles his efficiency.
He now has twice as much stuff to consume but still only 112 hours.
He has to eat twice as much.
Wear out twice as many clothes.
Drive twice as many miles.
What happens?
He can't do it, he doesn't have enough time.
So he's producing a lot of stuff that he has no time for.
The only way to rebalance the equation is to reduce work hours (increasing consumption hours by the same amount) until production == consumption.
That's exactly what's happened over the past 150 years.
60-hour workweek at the end of the Civil War.
Mix of 60-hour unskilled and 48-hour skilled workweeks during the late 1800s.
Informal adoption of 48-hour workweek after the 1890s.
Government adoption of 40-hour workweek during the Great Depression.
Work is finite.
If the economy is increasing in efficiency, that work shrinks over time.
Why is this so hard to understand?
it's Fifth Grade math.
Most deals financed with high leverage from 2005 to the present are under water. The equity is gone and the debt, if it trades at all, trades at a deep discount to face value.
That's what I was saying this morning. The shrinking of the balance sheets is the day to day process that's occurring now. Eventually, we'll get to sustainable levels.
Meanwhile, Lockhart had the money quote of the day:
Many small businesses rely on these smaller banks for credit. Small banks account for almost half of all small business loans (loans under $1 million). Moreover, small firms' reliance on banks with heavy CRE exposure is substantial. Banks with the highest CRE exposure (CRE loan books that are more than three times their tier 1 capital) account for almost 40 percent of all small business loans.
The questions become: Can they shrink before they fail and can their customers hold on that long?
BY LIAM PLEVEN, SERENA NG AND JOANN S. LUBLIN [WSJ]
Robert Benmosche has told the board of American International Group Inc. that he is considering stepping down as chief executive of the government-controlled insurer, just three months after taking the job, according to people familiar with the matter.
Bwaahhhhhahhhhha
Evidently he isn't so sure they can pay back their $180 billion.
Many small businesses rely on these smaller banks for credit. Small banks account for almost half of all small business loans (loans under $1 million). Moreover, small firms' reliance on banks with heavy CRE exposure is substantial. Banks with the highest CRE exposure (CRE loan books that are more than three times their tier 1 capital) account for almost 40 percent of all small business loans. **
That is why, imho, for job creation, it is imperative that the gov pre-privatize one of the tbtf zombie banks and use it to make exclusively **small business **loans. Otherwise UE ~10% for long as the eye can see.
sdtfs (profile) wrote on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:01 pm
"downloaded terabytes of information."
Trivially easy to figure out who.
yeah but the damage has been done and i hope you watched the video at the bottom of the article
steve croft of 60 minutes, interviews some high powered experts like the x DNI and industry leaders etc
it appears the trojan horses left in the net that controls the grid makes it possible for an enemy to run generating equipment beyond red line and cause system self destruction
the observation is made that none of the generators or other affected inferstructure is manufactured in the united states..so replacements...in the dead of winter might take months assuming , china (?) or whom ever the country that destroyed the parts,....and the country manufacturing the parts would be willing to "deal"
some day america is gonna outsource itself to death...the dumb ass mother effers who run this country have eviscerated our inferstructure and superstructure
please watch the video and dont be put off by the tittle...this is not about bush bashing...this problem would have occurred even if kerry was prez because the lethargy against acting runs deep...program makes that clear
I find it amusing that an 18-year old can get $150K in student loans without a clue to how to pay them back, but an existing small business owner can barely get $10K without providing the rights to their first born.
Ben-Mosche is threatening to resign after 3 months, 2 of which I believe he spent in Croatia at his vineyard
edit: I just created an infinite loop, sorry for the increasingly redundant redundancy
poic
ip aint out of san fran really dont know where its out of, but never seen pink before about same size as the blue one in the hortizonal scroll. so no pink for you
Yves Smith: "no one in Team Obama has any balls, Benmosche knows it, and is playing this for all it is worth"
Astute observation.
A really intense catfight between Geithner and Benmosche, complete with hair pulling and face scratching, would undoubtedly improve the street cred of all parties.
Basel Too,
I think the solution is to give a choice of 3 regulated ceilings to choose from, for any debt
Term length, loan to value, or interest rate
helps keep debt away from bubble generation initially while extend and pretend later, and so long as the debt is repayable there are much more limited consequences on prices
That is why, imho, for job creation, it is imperative that the gov pre-privatize one of the tbtf zombie banks and use it to make exclusively **small business **loans.
I'd like to see that happen if only because a TBTF take down might prove that Obama is not bought and paid for.
I think without question if the Obama Administration offers any further type of stimulus, it will be jobs-oriented.
A really intense catfight between Geithner and Benmosche, complete with hair pulling and face scratching, would undoubtedly improve the street cred of all parties.
Either that or reveal them for what they are. I'd rather offer them a saucer of milk and see who was more interested in it.
The weighting of gold in my portfolio is getting alarmingly high. But everything else looks worse, so even Slumdog has not been able to talk my weighting down.
CR is a 'rocket science' blog(Reformed Broker) that 'connects the dots'(HuffPost 'Changing the Game').
CR will be around a long time as we are in the 2nd inning of the Great Credit/Debt unwind...
CR is 'must read status among professors'(HuffPost).
U.S. stocks, bonds and the dollar would collapse if investors perceive Congress violating the independence of the policy-setting panel, former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer, now vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, said last month.
[Bberg on Dodd reform plan]
What a sick fucking joke. But I'm not laughing. Banksters threaten collapse if Congress violates the "independence" of the Fed...what a fucktard. Keep talking your ponzi book, shill-scumbag. Hey Meyer, "I call".
What if he's not listening? Perhaps it would be beneficial if you addressed all those professors for whom CR is required reading . . . and mention why stocks [and commodities] continue to do well even if bonds and the dollar both collapse.
Oh I know he's not listening. He thinks he doesn't have to pay the slightest heed to the US Senate's views on unemployment or control of the currency. Just threaten to bring the house down. Investors will flee to China where they can rely on the word of the central bank. Good riddance, whores. Fucking bankster shill scumbag.
A shorter work week will only come with sustained pressure from below. Capital pretty much likes a certain degree of desperation and unemployment in its subjects. But the 'below' is too busy forming various -I and only I am oppressed- identity PAC groups.
Whose bright idea was it to give him the gig? First straight to vacation and then pimping bonuses? Talk about out of touch with the changes in the political environment. Heads need to roll.
"The weighting of gold in my portfolio is getting alarmingly high."
"Would you have said that about tech stocks in the late 90's?"
No. I have never had any trouble trimming tech stocks when they go up unreasonably. I was in school and did not have much in the way of investments in the late '90s, but I jumped back in early in 2003 and then mostly bailed from tech by late 2004, and was shorting homebuilders by mid 2005. Way too early, if you didn't know.
Talk about out of touch with the changes in the political environment.
Not to mention society as a whole. These guys (for which he stands in as tonight's poster boy) are so far removed from you and I and everyone else not in their clique that they would actually be surprised when the torches and pitchforks showed up on their last day. They literally would not have seen it coming.
Princeton University list of Electrical Engineering grad students. i knew Asians were over-weighted in the sciences, but this is freaking astonishing...
In other words at or about 2012, or at the time Barack Obama is sure to be enjoying record approval ratings (high or low, your choice) courtesy of 30% unemployment, the American economy will be straddled with not just the ongoing burden of issuing about $2 trillion in debt each year to finance what can only be characterized as a budget concocted by the most hard-core, raving lunatics in the Federal Insane Asylum Reserve, but will have to deal with roughly $15 trillion of rolling maturities.
Call me a broken record, but... the USD will implode before the Fed raises rates.
Sounds good. Still, I would be alarmed if someone said they were overweight in Treasuries these days, let alone (gasp!) stocks and bonds. I'm not exactly thrilled holding cash these days myself.
it's kind of topical
Voltaire believed in a cyclical nature for society, and it's notable because to believe such required the will to contradict St Augustine (/church doctrine) that believed history was the unfolding composition of God (because Christ could only die once for humanity's sins)
University of Toronto was known as University of Hong Kong back in the 90s. I had some math/comp sci. courses where out of over a hundred students probably 10 were Non Asian.
The entire edifice of the credit system is still under immense stress, with more massive defaults to come
Don't worry the govt. will backstop any of the important institutions from having to eat the losses. After all they're TBTF and just getting BIGGER.
~splat
All, sorry about the broken posting for awhile there. Didn't expect changing a url to cause our css file to change! Drupal has a lot of moving parts...
i had no idea that the URL switch was the bugger. then again, i haven't moved to the blue theme, so i didn't notice that much of a problem. awesome as always...
Thanks, sportsfan. I hate breaking things, but I want to improve the site, and I don't have the manpower to do rigorous testing. Thanks for being patient.
“The Fed should have a particularly important role in supervising institutions that create systemic risk,” Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Fed, told reporters yesterday after a speech in Phoenix.
Bah! Use it, or lose it. And we should be moving on to the "lose it" phase by now.
Interesting comment I thought about "most forecasters only extrapolate recent trends forward". I wonder what the effect of the impending Asia bubble will have on the western economies over the next few years. I don't see that talked about a lot on this blog.
In any event the EST daytime and evening crowd are more US focussed, and after the Asia workday, who's actually up and reading the participants' evening ramblings?
Ah, but will it be recognized as an Asia bubble?
In any event the EST daytime and evening crowd are more US focussed, and after the Asia workday, who's actually up and reading the participants' evening ramblings?
C
Not sure, but it sure it feeling like the start of a bubble here in Asia. Feeling here like it did in 2003 in the California housing business.
Today answer your other question, it is noon/1pm in the Middle East. Lunchbreak.
“It’s 2003 all over again,” says William White, chairman of the Economic Development and Review Committee at the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development in Paris.
I want a VIX on the Bovespa and Dubai, Qatari and Indonesian (natural gas producer) exchanges. Those are just going to be straight up casinos in the next 7-10 years.
Good point. Bovespa hit the circuit breakers numerous times last year. Got lost in the noise mostly. Was good for some jibes at work between the various latins present. The Venez couldn't help themselves.
Good point. Bovespa hit the circuit breakers numerous times last year. Got lost in the noise mostly. Was good for some jibes at work between the various latins present. The Venez couldn't help themselves.
C
Chile is going to be fun too....an economy based 100% on copper, aluminum, and other various commodities. Venezuela seems to be antsy to start s**t with its neighbors, so there will be some volatility as well. Geez, I'm too busy at work....need to get trading again.
It is interesting the divergence in attitude I see between this blog and message board and the bubbly feeling I'm getting from Asia. Combine that with all of the liquidity and equities inflows coming here, and I think the end of this story is pretty obvious.
California Real Estate has been a disaster, but there is hope on the horizon as the Fed re-inflates the system. It may actually be a good time to start checking out what is available and figure out ways to profit from it. Also, real estate recovery means stock market recovery, but an investor needs good market timing signals to know when to get in and when to get out.
BEIJING (Reuters) – China said on Wednesday it will consider major currencies in guiding the yuan, suggesting a departure from an effective dollar peg that has been in place since the middle of last year.
The reference to a new set of benchmarks for determining the value of the yuan holds out the possibility of a departure from recent practice, which has seen the currency held steady since mid-2008 around 6.83 per dollar.
Meanwhile: The direct stimulus into China's economy continues (unlike that of the USA). I remember a seeing a map last year of stimulus efforts by nations, China beat everyone and pumped in double direct stimulus to that of the US. All our money went indirectly into banksta pockets instead.
One could argue theirs will be a credit crisis similar to ours if the global economy doesn't recover, consumption in other nations doesn't recover. I think perhaps they have industrial over capacity which will come back to haunt them next year, no matter how many yuan they throw at it.
China is overplaying their hand and they are playing rough-its too soon to play rough, you wait until your opponent is so weak from fighting so long that all you have to do is blow on them to knock them over. Silly Chinese, they always make things more complex than they need to be. snark/
China's banks extended 8.92 trillion yuan in loans in the first 10 months, the central bank said on Wednesday, leaving them on course to lend nearly 10 trillion in all of 2009, equivalent to a third of China's annual output. [ID:nBJB003561] ($=6.83 yuan) (Reporting by Michael Wei and Alan Wheatley; Editing by Ken Wills)
......
Uh-oh
Tendinitis has again interrupted Sasha Cohen’s comeback to competitive figure skating, and is crimping her hopes to make the United States team for the Vancouver Olympics.
hans- Alameda eh? My family is all over the island. The house next door to my mom sold for 850K and we were all marvelling. Yeah, it's a nice house, but how much?
Columbia, SC (WLTX) -- The Board of Economic Advisors met and made predictions for the upcoming year that will affect everything from schools to prisons to all government agencies.
Factors from all areas of South Carolina's revenue were on the table for discussion.
"It was a wake," Chairman John Rainey said, meaning it was somber as they cut their current revenue estimate yet again.
"The sales tax is down. Withholding is down. Declarations are down," Rainey said.
One large factor in revenue predictions is unemployment. Economists are predicting the state unemployment rate to crawl past 12 percent next month.
"The real unemployment, that's the posted rate plus those that have given up, plus the underemployed, could reach 23 to 24 percent next year in this state," he said.
Some were questioning where all the displaced people were staying...I found some. This is such a tragic story...and I'm sure playing itself all across this "Great Nation"...puke...
"It was a wake," Chairman John Rainey said, meaning it was somber
Obviously, the Irish were not a part of the proceedings. The most subdued Irish wake I'm familiar with was when the neighbors burned the Widow Shaughnessy's house to the ground after securing insurance against same from the Italians. Now that was a wake!
Meanwhile, in our fair state; the battle against the American Taliban marches on!
A federal judge has ruled unconstitutional a Christian "I Believe" vehicle license tag with the image of a cross authorized last year by the S.C. General Assembly.
"The 'I Believe' Act's primary effect is to promote a specific religion, Christianity," U.S. District Judge Cameron Currie wrote in a decision released Tuesday.
State laws promoting one religion over others have been illegal in the United States since the nation's founding, Currie wrote.
Currie also focused on the role played by Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who originally pushed for the Christian tag after a move to create a similar "I Believe" tag failed in Florida.
(Reuters) - Unhappy over constraints imposed by U.S. government overseers, American International Group Inc Chief Executive Robert Benmosche told the company's board last week that he is considering stepping down, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter.
The giant insurer's chief executive is particularly unhappy over a recent compensation review by Kenneth Feinberg, the Treasury bailout program's special master for compensation, the paper said, citing the people.
Benmosche told AIG directors that he was "done" but agreed to think it over when they reacted with shock, the people told the paper.
LOL, didn't need that mental picture. I can't help but wonder why they need a license plate to show what great Christians they are down here. The fish emblem along with the thirty seven Jesus magnets was already a dead giveaway.
CK: That daily kos post brought tears and I don't cry. That reads like a Stephen King horror novel. I weep as this is all too common and I fear will become even more common as this economy forces acts of destruction upon ones self and then outward those unintended and extended families. Its always the children who suffer first and most; right along side the rest of the meek and weak who are silent. Brave little girl whose life will always be haunted without a respite.
I can't help but wonder why they need a license plate to show what great Christians they are down here.
really, I agree
After all, a discreet tattoo is sufficient, especially if located in a strategic spot where one can be reminded just prior to committing a deadly sin. Some might need more than one....
SC Lt. Governor Andre Bauer is a complete moron.
The license plate thing was just to gather future votes.
The funny thing is that SC only has back plates so they could put whatever they wanted to on the front but NO!
The American Taliban want your submission...
That was a scary story. As people lose jobs, however low end they may be, the stress increases. When people believe there is no way out, they get angry and lash out at the least able to protect themselves. That is usually the children.
Our Great Resession has a much larger cost than money.
I do not miss the bible thumpers one little bit. I learned the hard way, the more someone wears their religion on their sleeve, the more wary one should be of them in the workplace and elsewhere.
And CK, a lot of women bear scars (including me) some visible but the worst scars are invisible. The really sad part is this is little studied or reported about. Women are conditioned to be silent as if one reveals abuses it generally leads to more trouble, being called a liar or worse, being told they asked for it.
This is looking looking like it might have a few more teeth than I was expecting from Dodd. What am I missing? What is the angle?
It is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. You had five plus agencies that did not do their job so what is the solution - merge them to create one huge agency with an increased scope of powers (including insurance and private equity), add an oversight agency and a new agency (the CFPA) and say it is all fixed. It will be a clusterfuck
One can imagine the distinguished gentlemen caucusing: "We have to get a handle on this graft and corruption thing. So let's put them all under one agency."
The Dodd measure
Fed Faces Biggest Blow to Independence, Powers in Dodd Proposal - Bloomberg.com
This is looking looking like it might have a few more teeth than I was expecting from Dodd. What am I missing? What is the angle?
How different is this from previous attempts by McCain and by previous Democratic Congresses? This isn't the first time. Also, how different is it than proposals by Ron Paul?
Is it truly new, or has Dodd just lumped the best part of each of these previous plans together to form a new one?
Everyone thinks the past dollar strength was due to our ability to deliver gold for dollars on a set standard. It wasn't - it was our ability to deliver steel, wheat, wood, machine tools, etc. in exchange for currency [dollars, precious metal & otherwise]
Dryfly- I totally disagree. It was based on the political stability of the United States and its protection of individual property rights. This was at time when there was fear of communist take over in Europe and a whole host of less developed countries that routinely expropriated peoples assets or overthrew their governemnts. The problem for the dollar is that many of those conditions no longer exist. As Thomas Friedman put it many years ago- the US exported it "mojo" . Rule of law, respect of property and an efficient capital market. In short it is democracy overseas that undermining the dollar.
We could keep the 5 agencies, add 3 and create more jobs.
Then they could fight over who does what, while no one does anything.
At least Dodd's bill has a 5 member board overseeing it - Frank's bill had a single administrator with an advisory board - one person welding such power is dangerous. Waxman is trying to change the Frank bill to add the board concept.
Attorney General Eric Holder endorsed the Senate’s version of legislation that would extend three provisions of the Patriot Act that are slated to expire at the end of the year.
Holder wrote in a letter today to Senate Judiciary Committee members that he offers “strong support” for the USA Patriot Act Sunset Extension Act, which would reauthorize the “lone wolf,” records and “roving wiretap” powers. By contrast, a House version of the bill would not continue the “lone wolf” provision, which lets the government track targets who don’t have any discernible affiliation with terrorist or other foreign groups.
What it doesn't address is the fact that hundreds of banks and credit unions will fail, and they will take a few insurance companies heavily invested in CRE with them, and the conusmer will still be broke and jobless. It is going to end up very ugly
In trying times, things don't always go according to Hoyle...
My grandfather was an architect, worldly, wealthy & wise, and he knew things were looking bad in 1938, so he put 5,000 Pounds in an English bank in Prague for each of his 3 children, including my father. Grandfather thought he'd be a smarty and out-think the nazi party, but when adolf's minions came calling in 1939, the English and French didn't want any hassles, so they let the stormtroopers take the assets from their banks in Czechoslovakia, including grandfather's deposits.
How much was 15,000 Pounds @ the time?
Gold Sovereigns were worth 2 pounds each, so the loss was just under $2 million, using the price of gold as a constant value.
On that note: I was trying to answer my own questions about the Fannie deed to lease deals. What I found on the website left me GOBSMACKED. I found instructions for servicers. I did not find anything indicating who pays for property taxes or back taxes. I discovered also that few will likely be served by that swap deal. The deal also includes those who have rental properties of 6 or more..ugh. Wonder how the hell that works.
I think its highly likely that any deed to lease deals will be reported as SALES, agree?? for
Wisconsin Avenue Securities (WAS) REMIC
Fannie Mae’s Wisconsin Avenue Securities (WAS) Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit (REMIC) allows you to time and/or credit tranche your loans, thus maximizing the securities offered to your investor base. With this flexible solution, we create guaranteed senior Fannie Mae securities and an unguaranteed B-piece security that can be rated and tranched.
Benefits and Features
•
Flexible solution with easy execution.
•
Competitive pricing.
• Potential relief from risk-based capital, GAAP, or other accounting and regulatory requirements.
•
Option to split pool risk and immediately sell unwanted bonds.
•
Guaranteed timely payment of principal and interest for senior bonds.
• Senior securities that may trade at higher prices than comparable private-label AAA-rated issues.
•
Recourse dependent on underlying collateral.
Requirements and Terms
•
Permanent loans on multifamily rental properties comprised of five or more units.
•
Loans must be “seasoned,” which means they must be closed.
•
Pools range from $200 million to $1 billion or above.
• Lender works with a broker dealer to structure and distribute the securities. (Betcha those fees are sweet)
•
Fannie Mae determines the size of subordinate bonds.
•
Payments are applied based on a predetermined schedule (or waterfall) with principal payments to senior securities and losses absorbed by subordinate securities.
•
Principal payment priority to the senior security holders.
I see in Dodd's bill he requires them to keep 10% of the risk. That's meeping ridiculous
While I would like it to have been higher I think forcing originators to keep a portion of the loan on their books is a really good step since it forces the loan out of the shadows and into the regulatory oversight. I don't think it is a function of the amount of risk that is kept but rather once it goes on a banks books the bank examiners get a chance to look at and decide if it meets appropriate lending standard- if not they get to classify it. I haven't read the bill so don't know what happens to the securitized asset if a retained loan is classified. Also rather than increase the 10% I would prefer that there was a requirement that institutions subject to ERISA and depository institution using the FDIC guarantee can only purchase securitized assets where a portion of the loan is on the books of regulated financial institution. The problem is the shadow banking system.
Gold: Another exhaustion gap, 1116 - 1109, 7 points, at the NY Spot opening. One of these won't close and will be the basis for the drop to 1045. When I see it, I'll short it. I don't gamble. Unless this is a low risk trade, I won't take it. It IMO is a gift if timed correctly. Gold of course is going to the Great Doubling. But along the way, there will be some pratfalls that will bring tears to all but the strongest hands. When the rest cry, I want to be right along in their flow of money in my direction. Meanwhile,those who hold gold, the long positions, are happy, but they're as relevant as the value of a Picasso on one's bedroom wall, or as valuable as MBS on vacant CRE. It feels good, but one doesn't eat the Picasso. I don't chew the coinage or the bars. They're just a store of value.
The infrastructure collapse is taking place in slow motion. The US will stick the world with its paper and devalue it by I'm guessing 75% from here, not just to J Sinclair's .52 estimated target. Evidences like the patent atty's job loss are just proofs that this is happening. Gold's rise? Proof. Stock market rise? Proof. Commodities rise? Proof. For those waiting for a public statement on the matter, your wait may be enhanced if you were sitting in a psychiatrist's office.
As for the financial reform legslation, it basically takes the form of the British FSA, plus a few powers the FSA does not have - only problem - British banks and finanical firms got into the same shit as the U.S. Didn't work there so adopt it here. Add to that the British financial system only has banks that are TBTF.
I was in a $500 buy-in fantasy football league with a bunch of OC new car dealers, once upon a time. It cost $25 to switch players out, etc. The pool was something like $12k, and back then, new car dealers had money.
I don't think I watched one entire NFL game that season, switching back & forth on Directv, hoping my lottery picks would either run or catch a TD pass-or be on the throwing end, for 99 yards.
This lends further credence to the wisdom of Joseph Stiglitz's view that the TARP money would have been put to better use funding a brand new bank - something that would have resulted in actual lending!
I expect a lot of movement of tenants to the buildings they actually wanted to be in, instead of just what they were able to afford. Unlike with homes, most businesses are renters, and this is making them more mobile. They can move closer to their employees if they want (typically that means moving closer to top mgmt). They can move closer to business partners, customers, or the beach.
I also expect to see some "what can we do with all this free space" kinds of businesses out in the boonies. Indoor dog parks. Temperature controlled wine storage. Large warehouses converted to indoor athletic fields.
The bad part is that unless CA gets net immigration again, and employment rises, the vacancy rates will stay high. The State government keeps missing this point. I predict a long extended beating before they finally make getting businesses locating and expanding in CA a priority.
Not many politicians in CA really get this point. Haven't heard Steve Westly running for Governor, but he gets it.
The average discount was 10 percent, little changed from a month earlier, the San Francisco-based real estate data provider said today. Almost 26 percent of homes for sale were reduced at least once. Luxury properties -- those costing $2 million or more -- accounted for 25 percent of the dollar value of reductions and less than 2 percent of listings, Trulia said.
a big **0% for 12 months! **on the front of the envelop. The fine print
0% or 2.99% on balance transfers (based on your "creditworthiness"). Fee of 3% of total balance transfer.
12.99%-19.99% on new purchases (based on your..)
Quite a deal, huh? Last year this time Discover offered me $15,000 on new purchases at 0% free for a year. I took them up on their offer. I will be passing on these new offers.
Being awarded a set 13.24% APR, @ just $495 a year, by that Visa Black credit card offering-doesn't seem so outrageous, compared to the 29.99% atroCiti is charging~
Columbia, SC (WLTX) -- The City of Columbia has decided to cancel the Veterans Day Parade, scheduled for Wednesday, November 11, 2009.
The annual parade is one of the largest in the Southeast, but city leaders say inclement weather, expected as a result of Tropical Storm Ida, will keep them from continuing the tradition this year.
---Some of these guys stormed Normandy; I doubt a bit of rain will slow them down.
Was the Battle of the Bulge canceled because of snow?
Why does the city of Columbia hate our veterans?
It's almost as if unemployment became a...leading indicator...naaaaaah
World Bank warns unemployment threatens US economy World Bank's Zoellick warns high unemployment rate threatens US economic recovery
By Alex Kennedy, Associated Press Writer
On 8:30 am EST, Wednesday November 11, 2009
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Stubbornly high joblessness threatens to trigger loan defaults and drag on consumption next year, hobbling a U.S. economy struggling to rebound from recession, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said Wednesday. World Bank warns unemployment threatens US economy - Yahoo! Finance
I read the transcript of Friday's CDC press briefing. It was hilarious as they tried to explain why GS etc. got vaccine while hospitals had none. That two step looked like Elaine dancing on Seinfeld.
home
they dont have the money and they just dont want to say?
if all just went out and walked down the streets maybe up some streets, you know a self made parade?
energyecon
so world bank is saying that unemployment threatens.... luckly we got recovery already and we are going to have a" jobless" one so we dont need to worry about that unemployment.!
Moreover, small firms' reliance on banks with heavy CRE exposure is substantial.
Between this and the last thread: I'm confused as to why they (ie, Fed members) are speaking so plainly.
First in this environment is over rated.
Relying on bank credit is suicide.
The WSJ has a short article tonight on retail CRE:
Retail Vacancies on the Rise - WSJ.com
CBRE Econometric Advisors ... predicts in a report to be released today that available space in U.S. shopping centers will reach 12.9% in next year's fourth quarter, up from 12.2% in this year's third quarter. The vacancy rate will then "hover around that peak for at least several quarters," ... That surpasses the peak vacancy rate for retail in the early 1990s, which hit 11.3% in 1992.
CBRE predicts that the rates, now at an average of $21.92 a square foot, won't start rising until 2013 ...
Ouch.
best to all
"Relying on bank credit is suicide."
Is that not what the Dollar IS at heart, these days? Credit from the Fed?
I love an article that opens with: Landlords and brokers are busy debating how the Great Recession compares with the real-estate disaster of the early 1990s. In retail, the verdict is clear: This time is worse.
Speculation on gold price. Also, rumor/speculation that some central banks will follow Bank of India and buy more gold-- including the Fed:
Gold: how high can the price go? - Telegraph
I thought last year was unprecedented. Bigger than last year? You mean moral hazard got worse? Hoocoodafukinode.
CR- is that your photo on the tiles?
edit: No, not the Rick Moranis picture,... the forest hidden by the trees.
Darth Vader? or Elmo? I did take the Trees photo in Canada a few years ago (near Jasper)
best wishes
Ken, when I hit "save" on message, nothing happens. I have to refresh the screen to see the new comment.
best wishes
scone wrote:
Odd graph: "Purchasing power since 1560". Hell, I have a tough time believing the CPI from the past decade, and they can measure back to 1560 without error bars?
ok, that's funny. whose schwartz is bigger than cr's?
The entire edifice of the credit system is still under immense stress, with more massive defaults to come.
There, plain enough for ya?
Mortgage companies are starting call when you are not paying on the 1st, rather than the grace period date.
The credit card companies and the "safe" mortgages will also begin falling due to unemployment.
Wall Street has ascended into the realms of madness and fantasy, and reality is grim.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Credit from the Fed?
"Full faith and credit" was always backed up by US economic might. It's a 'last man standing' bet.
they can measure back to 1560 without error bars? - JP
Hey. it's chart porn. High level of titillating fantasy. The scratch 'n sniff of economics.
California’s year-to-date revenue $854M below budget guesses.
California’s year-to-date revenue $854M below budget guesses - San Francisco Business Times:
Gee, big banks might not be hurt by small banks going under if only Treasury covers the FDIC's losses "just this once" (Bird and Fortune). The TBTF will pay back every penny, if enough is left after record bonuses. Why should a successful, "healthy" bank have to pay for a small banks foolish risk, anyway.
I believe the biggest 4 banks only have a few hundred $trillion exposure to derivatives. That's well capitalized, because it's all insured, by Ambac, AIG, Ice Trust... Oh, wait.
JP wrote:
I wonder if their view is skewed by region - as bad as it is it seems to me where I am as far less ugly than late 80s S&L.
Everyone seems to think the bare shelves and spread out racks in stores is a sign of expectations of a grim Christmas, but I've thought it's a sign of a lack of credit.
Full faith and credit = ability to tax
If it moves tax it, if it stops subsidize it.
Can we subsidize everything?
The
sticks it's tentacles into the 
story:
Goldman on Gold Prices: Central Bank Buying Something to Watch - MarketBeat - WSJ
And the Russians are in:
Russia c.bank may cut rates again in '09, buy gold
| Reuters
Kind of like high stakes poker. Blink and your currency's dead.
CR- Ken's out to dinner. Meanwhile we get to enjoy a flashback to ye olde Haloscan days of yore.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Sorry boss - he knows - he's out playing tonight - will jump on it ASAP.
scone wrote:
Everyone thinks the past dollar strength was due to our ability to deliver gold for dollars on a set standard. It wasn't - it was our ability to deliver steel, wheat, wood, machine tools, etc. in exchange for currency [dollars, precious metal & otherwise] that could be used to either acquire other goods or PM reserves or other currencies. Until we can again make good on our debts & fulfill our appetites via production of goods & services our full faith & credit is broken. California like in everything is just ahead of the curve.
So I posted the link earlier where Merkel said in a speech that Germany hasn't seen the worst of this downturn yet and 2010 is going to suck pretty hard. I find that admission amazing for a major head of state. I can't imagine anyone in the O-admin willing to say something like that.
Evidently the reporters had heard the joke before and he didn't get so much as a chuckle. 'In Chinese it's funnier', he said afterward.
scone, you sound like a naughty girl. Lucky Mr Scone.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
quite honestly, i haven't noticed this anywhere. i guess things are different elsewhere in the country.
So no one has posted the FRB appeals motion to the 2nd circuit regarding the Bloomberg FOIA yet? That seems crazy to me...
Just punchy with tiredness tonight. Too much coffee, too much hoisting of furniture... Like this:
ECSTASY « Lolcats 'n' Funny Pictures of Cats – I Can Has Cheezburger?
"We do obviously have a lot more banks that will close this year and next," Bair said,
Well, there goes Friday as a getaway day for me. Schucks.
"In retail, the verdict is clear: This time is worse."
Really? I'm looking for a smail retail space in LA. LL's don't seem to have gotten the message. Guess they like vacancies... maybe it's a write-off.
Do you know what to look for? The storage containers aren't nested, they have lids on them and are stacked, small stuff like batteries have more hooks devoted to them. Furniture is laid out on the floor, the aisles are just a little wider, cheaper products occupy more visual space. Special displays are set up with room to move around them. Etc.
edit: They know marketing. A lot will be in the less traveled area, they're going to make sure the main aisles look busy.
RockyR wrote:
I have & think it is just 'smart' inventory mgmt - if sales are lower then carry less on the floor produces the same turnover [turnover defined as inventory value/sales per unit time]. These folks aren't all dummies.
EDIT: actually bassackwards... turns are sales/inventory... inventory/sales is a measure of how long it takes to turn once...
Regarding securitization reform:
I see in Dodd's bill he requires them to keep 10% of the risk. That's meeping ridiculous. I propose they tie the risk to the time of the underlying security. For example; if you make a 30 year loan you cannot securitize that loan until 10 years from the time the loan is made. And even when you do that you have to carry 25% of the risk.
Interesting graphs:
St. Louis Fed: Series: USLSTL, Net Loan Losses / Average Total Loans for all U.S. Banks
St. Louis Fed: Series: NCOCMC, Commercial Net Loan Charge-offs
If the major central banks all start buying gold, the heat turns up-- it's a bit of an undercover trade war. No, that's wrong. It's more like a circle jerk crossed with Russian roulette.
On the shopping theme...
Reuters.com
This about sums up where my wife and I are this year. Presents for the nephews, giftcards for a few folks, and homemade bbq rub and baking favors for everyone else. We haven't stopped spending money, but we've redirected it from eating out and buying crap to getting more on top of house/car maintenance etc.
From the post, I learned a new euphanism...
"Hey, I didn't default on my loan. It was just an unscheduled maturity."
picosec wrote:
It also applies to getting married. Having kids. etc. I've had several unscheduled maturity episodes in my life.
Hi folks, back from dinner.
The CB's buying
is definitely a sign of impending currency 
.
I've read elsewhere that the CRE refi chart echoes the RRE ARM chart rather well.
St. Louis Fed: Series: USNPTL, Nonperforming Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) / Total Loans for all U.S. Banks
I'll be sure to pay more attention next time I cruise through ::insert your big box here:: retailer.
picosec wrote:
Nice. And the lender has a new baby mama to look after.
A CB could use the sale/purchase of gold to influence the money supply, especially since Au is risk-weighted same as cash/treasuries.
There's only one guy who can save us!
Mr. Peabody - Google Search
What would be the optimal weighting for gold in a portfolio? 10%?
It sounds like the Russian case is the CB buying from the state, ie keeping it in the family. Any of you Russian-o-philes can shed light?
this puts me in a predicament; I don't know whom to believe, GM or the government... oh nevermind, a $50B repayment is to be in the form of newly-issued stock. Yeah, and I value my building a $2B, if anyone's interested.
Chairman Says G.M. Can Repay Taxpayers - NY Times
The chairman of General Motors, Edward E. Whitacre Jr., said Tuesday that the automaker would be able to repay all of its government loans and would begin doing so soon.
A government report released last week concluded that taxpayers are unlikely to receive full repayment of the more than $81 billion lent to rescue G.M. and Chrysler. But Mr. Whitacre, speaking at a small college near his home in Texas, insisted that G.M. intended to repay its full debt to the Treasury Department, excluding the nearly $1 billion lent to the old part of G.M. that remains in bankruptcy.
Fugly at retail. Almost Regretsy worthy. Impressive, young D-lister!
Sophie Fuglkiner
Weird Economy
Wells Fargo is giving out free ponies.
apologies if this is a re-peat and yes its OT but relates to our meltdown concerns
if you are not already having sleepless nights
this story is guaranteed to push you over the edge
about how hackers have compromised and downloaded terabytes of top secret information from DOD computers
money quote:
"Jim Lewis, who directs the Technology and Public Policy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says that the United States experienced its "electronic Pearl Harbor" in 2007:
Lewis said, "Some unknown foreign power, and honestly, we don't know who it is, broke into the Department of Defense, to the Department of State, the Department of Commerce, probably the Department of Energy, probably NASA. They broke into all of the high tech agencies, all of the military agencies, and downloaded terabytes of information."
On Bush's Watch, U.S. Suffered Its "Electronic Pearl Harbor"
Whereas excessive and imprudent leverage fed the bubble
he provides zero evidence!
surely he jests
WTF:
Conservative leaning fellow goes to Huffington Post and sees this headline:
Freddie, Fannie get rid of their Inspector General:
There is no independent auditor overseeing the federal agency responsible for some $6 trillion in home mortgages, because the Department of Justice's Office of Legal Counsel ruled that the agency's inspector general didn't have authority to operate, according to internal memos obtained by the Huffington Post. The ruling came in response to a request from the Federal Housing Finance Agency itself -- which means that a federal agency essentially succeeded in getting rid of its own inspector general.
The FHFA is home to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks, which are jointly responsible for purchasing or guaranteeing more than 80 percent of new mortgages issued since the middle of 2008, according to FHFA numbers. In September, the Department of Justice ruled that FHFA Inspector General Ed Kelley did not have authority to investigate wrongdoing or other abuses related to the agency, according to an internal DOJ Office of Legal Counsel memo signed by Deputy Assistant Attorney General Daniel Koffsky.
Bought me some GOLDX, but will dump it at the first sign of a brown shorts moment. Unpleasantly volatile, with a brimstone aftertaste.
Basel Too wrote:
I have been saying that forever - it is the nuclear option when fighting deflation... buy gold. The CB removes [hoards] PM and replaces it with fiat... the higher the PM goes in price the more 'efficient' the exchange [fewer tons of metal needed to buy & store per 'ton' of paper produced & distributed]. Once the CB has done enough it could either sit on its 'valuation' of metal or reverse the process [sell metal to sop up excess paper]. Balance sheet looks fine either way.
Talk about fighting fire with fire.
I have been waiting for this for a long time though not smart [or crazy] enough to play with them - I like to sleep at night even if it is the dreams of a poor man.
@ poic - Aaaaawwwwwwwwww! Girly Squeeeeeeeeeeaal!
Does WF keep a stable of horses, like the Budweiser Clydesdales?
OT: Please advise. Is the problem with HCN mainly tied to FF or are other browsers affected? I'm suffering here via FF and I need my fix!
i added pictures of CRE in Newark, CA empty since built in 1998.
same blog
Weird Economy
yagij wrote:
HCN - kcoop is aware but has another pressing engagement.
Testing
Edit: Nope. IE seems to be working fine.
Edit edit: Using IE 8. If it matters.
Edit edit edit: Using IE in Legacy mode. Maybe that makes a difference.
dryfly wrote:
I knew that he was aware, but I didn't know if the problem appeared across browser platforms. Seems to be fine in IE 7, but the problem is I'm using IE 7.
.
Edit: (in reply to...) works in IE 7.0, but using [Save] does not work all the way. It is similar to FF 3.5.x in that the message is saved, but the comment box isn't "minimized".
"Is the problem with HCN mainly tied to FF or are other browsers affected?"
FWIW, works fine in Safari OS X 10.6
Why would a cali city name itself Newark?
nevermind.
GM and $81,000,000,000 repayment....on a four square deal sheet
9,000,000 cars/year
ok that's an extra $9g's per car
@ $150/month for 60 months....
ok, i guess it's possible in theory, to get consumers to overpay this much for there cars. we are, after all, americans...and are used to overpaying for things....healthcare, taxes, now cars....i think i ma need a second job...
maybe if we can just keep the markets open 24/7?
i'm having mega issues with it in Safari 4.0.3, OS X 10.5.8.
REBear wrote:
You forgot a "0".
I'm running FF in legacy mode; much better, but doesn't auto-refresh. I'll manage.
"Why would a cali city name itself Newark? "
Cause Newark, NJ was such a great name to copy?
broward wrote:
... in place of the "1".
Trivially easy to figure out who. First, who has the manpower to sift terabytes of anything? Second, look for an increase in foreign access to porn sites as they attempt to follow links back. Third, look for an increase in foreign emails with US government speak embedded. Fourth, look for a government energy policy enthusiastic about ethanol and coal. Etc.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Just like the "good ol' days" of JSSux or whatever we were using!
I've got FF and all seems well. Maybe your sacrifices to the Great Old Ones were not acceptable.
Next time, try a real virgin.
RockyR wrote:
The gold weighting of your portfolio is malfunctioning.
broward wrote:
We prefer the term "suboptimal" around here, buddy!
We prefer the term "suboptimal" around here, buddy!
LOL!
Outsider wrote:
Switched over to IE 8 [I have three browsers I switch between - only use IE w/ doing business stuff]... seems to work better than my FF 3.5X
EDIT: still get the navigate away error. Looks like KC will be busy later...
sdtfs wrote:
Al Gore?
Testing in FF 3.5.5 (Legacy)
Nope, that seems to work too.
Maybe it's the Legacy that's making the difference?
Wasn't working for me with Firefox, but switching the Hoocoodanode theme to "Legacy and Mobiie" fixed it...
You guys are so funny-- All hands to nerd mode! Circle the calculators!
scone - LOL!
zephyrum wrote:
+1 Workaround
KOFY is reporting that California is already expecting another 7B deficit through June 2010 and another 7.5B the following year. So another 14.5B in possible cuts coming.
That's going to leave a mark.
Outsider wrote:
Probably... oh well time to nap anyway.
Agree. Couldn't have slept if that problem hadn't been solved tho.
testing
A man has (16 X 7) = 112 hours available per week.
He spends 40 hours at work (production) and 72 hours in leisure (consumption).
He consumes what he produces.
Over time, he doubles his efficiency.
He now has twice as much stuff to consume but still only 112 hours.
He has to eat twice as much.
Wear out twice as many clothes.
Drive twice as many miles.
What happens?
He can't do it, he doesn't have enough time.
So he's producing a lot of stuff that he has no time for.
The only way to rebalance the equation is to reduce work hours (increasing consumption hours by the same amount) until production == consumption.
That's exactly what's happened over the past 150 years.
60-hour workweek at the end of the Civil War.
Mix of 60-hour unskilled and 48-hour skilled workweeks during the late 1800s.
Informal adoption of 48-hour workweek after the 1890s.
Government adoption of 40-hour workweek during the Great Depression.
Work is finite.
If the economy is increasing in efficiency, that work shrinks over time.
Why is this so hard to understand?
it's Fifth Grade math.
really weird can scroll comments beneath my comment
Excerpt from CR's blog post:
That's what I was saying this morning. The shrinking of the balance sheets is the day to day process that's occurring now. Eventually, we'll get to sustainable levels.
Meanwhile, Lockhart had the money quote of the day:
The questions become: Can they shrink before they fail and can their customers hold on that long?
Bwaahhhhhahhhhha
Evidently he isn't so sure they can pay back their $180 billion.
That is why, imho, for job creation, it is imperative that the gov pre-privatize one of the tbtf zombie banks and use it to make exclusively **small business **loans. Otherwise UE ~10% for long as the eye can see.
broward,
There is always a way to increase consumption = )
"Bwaahhhhhahhhhha
Evidently he isn't so sure they can pay back their $180 billion. "
Maybe he can become a whistle-blower afterwards?
Literally a few pennies on the dollar. (Today's dollar) Could be 95 cents on a 95% devalued dollar.
sdtfs (profile) wrote on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 10:01 pm
"downloaded terabytes of information."
Trivially easy to figure out who.
yeah but the damage has been done and i hope you watched the video at the bottom of the article
steve croft of 60 minutes, interviews some high powered experts like the x DNI and industry leaders etc
it appears the trojan horses left in the net that controls the grid makes it possible for an enemy to run generating equipment beyond red line and cause system self destruction
the observation is made that none of the generators or other affected inferstructure is manufactured in the united states..so replacements...in the dead of winter might take months assuming , china (?) or whom ever the country that destroyed the parts,....and the country manufacturing the parts would be willing to "deal"
some day america is gonna outsource itself to death...the dumb ass mother effers who run this country have eviscerated our inferstructure and superstructure
please watch the video and dont be put off by the tittle...this is not about bush bashing...this problem would have occurred even if kerry was prez because the lethargy against acting runs deep...program makes that clear
"Literally a few pennies on the dollar. (Today's dollar) Could be 95 cents on a 95% devalued dollar. "
But we'll have Dow 30k. Wooohooo!!
using ie 8 on legacy
did anyone else have pink border on the bottom of the page?
I find it amusing that an 18-year old can get $150K in student loans without a clue to how to pay them back, but an existing small business owner can barely get $10K without providing the rights to their first born.
"did anyone else have pink border on the bottom of the page? "
That only happens if your IP address is out of San Francisco.
Ben-Mosche is threatening to resign after 3 months, 2 of which I believe he spent in Croatia at his vineyard
edit: I just created an infinite loop, sorry for the increasingly redundant redundancy
poic
ip aint out of san fran really dont know where its out of, but never seen pink before about same size as the blue one in the hortizonal scroll. so no pink for you
must see video at bottom of article indicates
usa dod computers and others...
and data systems... were compromised in 07 in a cyber attack,
and massive amounts of vital data stolen
trojan horses left behind
On Bush's Watch, U.S. Suffered Its "Electronic Pearl Harbor"
ps this is not about bush even tho it happened in 07...wish they didnt tittle as such
Broward the price to consume what is produced can also shrink instead of just work.
so why this come out now?
Yves Smith: "no one in Team Obama has any balls, Benmosche knows it, and is playing this for all it is worth"
Astute observation.
A really intense catfight between Geithner and Benmosche, complete with hair pulling and face scratching, would undoubtedly improve the street cred of all parties.
Basel Too,
I think the solution is to give a choice of 3 regulated ceilings to choose from, for any debt
Term length, loan to value, or interest rate
helps keep debt away from bubble generation initially while extend and pretend later, and so long as the debt is repayable there are much more limited consequences on prices
SNAFU wrote:
I'd like to see that happen if only because a TBTF take down might prove that Obama is not bought and paid for.
I think without question if the Obama Administration offers any further type of stimulus, it will be jobs-oriented.
"What would be the optimal weighting for gold in a portfolio? 10%?"
That seems hight to me. I am much more comfortable with a mix of commodities or at the very least PMs.
albrt wrote:
Either that or reveal them for what they are. I'd rather offer them a saucer of milk and see who was more interested in it.
The weighting of gold in my portfolio is getting alarmingly high. But everything else looks worse, so even Slumdog has not been able to talk my weighting down.
CR is a 'rocket science' blog(Reformed Broker) that 'connects the dots'(HuffPost 'Changing the Game').
CR will be around a long time as we are in the 2nd inning of the Great Credit/Debt unwind...
CR is 'must read status among professors'(HuffPost).
[Bberg on Dodd reform plan]
What a sick fucking joke. But I'm not laughing. Banksters threaten collapse if Congress violates the "independence" of the Fed...what a fucktard. Keep talking your ponzi book, shill-scumbag. Hey Meyer, "I call".
We are already in 'Dr Strangelove'-like scenarios I heard today in the blogosphere...
What if he's not listening? Perhaps it would be beneficial if you addressed all those professors for whom CR is required reading . . . and mention why stocks [and commodities] continue to do well even if bonds and the dollar both collapse.
The weighting of gold in my portfolio is getting alarmingly high.
Would you have said that about tech stocks in the late 90's?
kcoop, I gather you're aware that Hoocoodanode is acting a little weird tonight?
oh he knows
coops phone been ringin off the hook
Oh I know he's not listening. He thinks he doesn't have to pay the slightest heed to the US Senate's views on unemployment or control of the currency. Just threaten to bring the house down. Investors will flee to China where they can rely on the word of the central bank. Good riddance, whores. Fucking bankster shill scumbag.
Screw Benmosche. He's yesterday's news. Dump him.
A shorter work week will only come with sustained pressure from below. Capital pretty much likes a certain degree of desperation and unemployment in its subjects. But the 'below' is too busy forming various -I and only I am oppressed- identity PAC groups.
So the TBTF banks get bigger and bigger as the competition gets smaller and smaller.
It's fitting, then, that US dollars are turning into Monopoly money.
Whose bright idea was it to give him the gig? First straight to vacation and then pimping bonuses? Talk about out of touch with the changes in the political environment. Heads need to roll.
Too much desperation and you get
Not enough and you get wage inflation, horrible.
"The weighting of gold in my portfolio is getting alarmingly high."
"Would you have said that about tech stocks in the late 90's?"
No. I have never had any trouble trimming tech stocks when they go up unreasonably. I was in school and did not have much in the way of investments in the late '90s, but I jumped back in early in 2003 and then mostly bailed from tech by late 2004, and was shorting homebuilders by mid 2005. Way too early, if you didn't know.
Blackhalo wrote:
Not to mention society as a whole. These guys (for which he stands in as tonight's poster boy) are so far removed from you and I and everyone else not in their clique that they would actually be surprised when the torches and pitchforks showed up on their last day. They literally would not have seen it coming.
board of directors of aig elected benmosche. wonder if they are happy with him
also wonder how much he is going to take with him when he leaves.
Princeton University list of Electrical Engineering grad students. i knew Asians were over-weighted in the sciences, but this is freaking astonishing...
Department of Electrical Engineering - Princeton University
The U.S. Lunatic Asylum (i.e., Economy) Is Facing Approximately $15 Trillion In Roll Risk By 2012 | zero hedge
In other words at or about 2012, or at the time Barack Obama is sure to be enjoying record approval ratings (high or low, your choice) courtesy of 30% unemployment, the American economy will be straddled with not just the ongoing burden of issuing about $2 trillion in debt each year to finance what can only be characterized as a budget concocted by the most hard-core, raving lunatics in the Federal Insane Asylum Reserve, but will have to deal with roughly $15 trillion of rolling maturities.
Call me a broken record, but... the USD will implode before the Fed raises rates.
A friend reminded me of this line earlier today.
roll the dice, every choice has a price
there's no time to take
no calculation will suffice
because it will begin and end with a wake
albrt,
Sounds good. Still, I would be alarmed if someone said they were overweight in Treasuries these days, let alone (gasp!) stocks and bonds. I'm not exactly thrilled holding cash these days myself.
it's kind of topical
Voltaire believed in a cyclical nature for society, and it's notable because to believe such required the will to contradict St Augustine (/church doctrine) that believed history was the unfolding composition of God (because Christ could only die once for humanity's sins)
Basel Too wrote:
It would look fairly balanced compared to U.C. Berkeley and U.C.L.A. Nothing new there.
EHP, M.C. Escher would have approved.
University of Toronto was known as University of Hong Kong back in the 90s. I had some math/comp sci. courses where out of over a hundred students probably 10 were Non Asian.
Don't worry the govt. will backstop any of the important institutions from having to eat the losses. After all they're TBTF and just getting BIGGER.
~splat
TJ and The Bear wrote:
...the
and its friends will say 'hoocoodanode'?
REBear wrote:
I'm thinking the USD is going down regardless.
All, sorry about the broken posting for awhile there. Didn't expect changing a url to cause our css file to change! Drupal has a lot of moving parts...
Should be fixed now.
The talking heads on BNN are wringing their hands over the gold rally right now.
Hmmm... still giving some problems. Testing...
i kinda missed referencing the node in the url...
Another test...
Basel Too wrote:
Why is that?
it made manually navigating through threads easier; all i would do is add/subtract from the existing node. not that big of deal though...
Basel Too wrote:
Well, looks like you're getting it back. Remapped URLs broke autorefresh in a hard-to-fix way.
Testing...
Okay, that should do it.
Sorry to leave the site broken this evening. This one was insidious - it didn't show up until a new post came from CR. Oh well...
Ken, thanks for all your efforts. Tonight was strange, but usually everything runs perfectly.
It's good to be reminded never to take perfection for granted. It might just disappear one day.
i had no idea that the URL switch was the bugger. then again, i haven't moved to the blue theme, so i didn't notice that much of a problem. awesome as always...
time for bed....
Thanks, sportsfan. I hate breaking things, but I want to improve the site, and I don't have the manpower to do rigorous testing. Thanks for being patient.
"The talking heads on BNN are wringing their hands over the gold rally right now. "
So I have a pretty good idea why that should be a major cause for concern, but why would THEY think it so?
The Dodd measure
Fed Faces Biggest Blow to Authority in Dodd Proposal (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
This is looking looking like it might have a few more teeth than I was expecting from Dodd. What am I missing? What is the angle?
Blackhalo wrote:
Blackhalo wins quote of the day.
Have you seen Dodd's poll numbers? Plus every congressman enjoys a good power grab now and then.
Basel - guess Mason got in through affirmative action.
C
testing
thank you kcoop
“The Fed should have a particularly important role in supervising institutions that create systemic risk,” Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Fed, told reporters yesterday after a speech in Phoenix.
Bah! Use it, or lose it. And we should be moving on to the "lose it" phase by now.
Interesting comment I thought about "most forecasters only extrapolate recent trends forward". I wonder what the effect of the impending Asia bubble will have on the western economies over the next few years. I don't see that talked about a lot on this blog.
Ah, but will it be recognized as an Asia bubble?
In any event the EST daytime and evening crowd are more US focussed, and after the Asia workday, who's actually up and reading the participants' evening ramblings?
C
Counterpointer wrote:
Not sure, but it sure it feeling like the start of a bubble here in Asia. Feeling here like it did in 2003 in the California housing business.
Today answer your other question, it is noon/1pm in the Middle East. Lunchbreak.
It seems someone much less stupid than me agrees with me....
Boom or Bust Leaves Bankers With Bum Choices: Caroline Baum - Bloomberg.com
“It’s 2003 all over again,” says William White, chairman of the Economic Development and Review Committee at the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development in Paris.
Dang, I was going to snark about the absence of responses...
Tks for the W White link.
C
/why is there no Nikki VIX? Anyone? There's a university-based proxy version but not a fully hosted live one, as far as I can see.
Counterpointer wrote:
I want a VIX on the Bovespa and Dubai, Qatari and Indonesian (natural gas producer) exchanges. Those are just going to be straight up casinos in the next 7-10 years.
Good point. Bovespa hit the circuit breakers numerous times last year. Got lost in the noise mostly. Was good for some jibes at work between the various latins present. The Venez couldn't help themselves.
C
Counterpointer wrote:
Chile is going to be fun too....an economy based 100% on copper, aluminum, and other various commodities. Venezuela seems to be antsy to start s**t with its neighbors, so there will be some volatility as well. Geez, I'm too busy at work....need to get trading again.
It is interesting the divergence in attitude I see between this blog and message board and the bubbly feeling I'm getting from Asia. Combine that with all of the liquidity and equities inflows coming here, and I think the end of this story is pretty obvious.
Whose gold do you think they sold? The IMF has no gold itself, the only gold they have was lent to them by others including including ourself.
Dollar getting beat up tonight.
VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE
Gold 1,115.70 13.20 1.20
Hmm, that might leave a mark.
Geithner Says Strong Dollar ‘Very Important’ to U.S. (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
How does this guy have ANY credibility.
California Real Estate has been a disaster, but there is hope on the horizon as the Fed re-inflates the system. It may actually be a good time to start checking out what is available and figure out ways to profit from it. Also, real estate recovery means stock market recovery, but an investor needs good market timing signals to know when to get in and when to get out.
Consider Invetrics - Financial insights and stock market timing signals for the active investor
Its daily DJIA index trading signal is up a respectable 68% for the year (as of November 1, 2009) and it is free of charge for individual investors.
"It may actually be a good time to start checking out what is available and figure out ways to profit from it."
.......
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091111/bs_nm/us_china_economy_pboc
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:
Gee, I think we were hoping they'd kind of learn from our example in a good way.
Ken- This episode just serves as a reminder how good we've had it. Your system is still superior, thanks.
Meanwhile: The direct stimulus into China's economy continues (unlike that of the USA). I remember a seeing a map last year of stimulus efforts by nations, China beat everyone and pumped in double direct stimulus to that of the US. All our money went indirectly into banksta pockets instead.
One could argue theirs will be a credit crisis similar to ours if the global economy doesn't recover, consumption in other nations doesn't recover. I think perhaps they have industrial over capacity which will come back to haunt them next year, no matter how many yuan they throw at it.
China is overplaying their hand and they are playing rough-its too soon to play rough, you wait until your opponent is so weak from fighting so long that all you have to do is blow on them to knock them over. Silly Chinese, they always make things more complex than they need to be. snark/
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKPEK34316920091111
......
Uh-oh
Tendinitis has again interrupted Sasha Cohen’s comeback to competitive figure skating, and is crimping her hopes to make the United States team for the Vancouver Olympics.
I went to UCLA 6 years ago. majored in computer science which was even more tilted towards asians than most of the rest of engineering.
i'd say if you want to find a white person in engineering your best bets were mechanical or aerospace or civil.
that said, in the CS / EE areas, you probably have maybe 10-15% non asian. maybe.
hans- Alameda eh? My family is all over the island. The house next door to my mom sold for 850K and we were all marvelling. Yeah, it's a nice house, but how much?
Why would you want to find a white person in engineering? Just curious.
You need someone to write white papers.
It's 6:15 CST time, do you know where your recovery is?
A little of the local flavor:
Columbia, SC (WLTX) -- The Board of Economic Advisors met and made predictions for the upcoming year that will affect everything from schools to prisons to all government agencies.
Factors from all areas of South Carolina's revenue were on the table for discussion.
"It was a wake," Chairman John Rainey said, meaning it was somber as they cut their current revenue estimate yet again.
"The sales tax is down. Withholding is down. Declarations are down," Rainey said.
One large factor in revenue predictions is unemployment. Economists are predicting the state unemployment rate to crawl past 12 percent next month.
"The real unemployment, that's the posted rate plus those that have given up, plus the underemployed, could reach 23 to 24 percent next year in this state," he said.
More State Budget Cuts Expected | wltx.com
OT but not really...
Some were questioning where all the displaced people were staying...I found some. This is such a tragic story...and I'm sure playing itself all across this "Great Nation"...puke...
Daily Kos: I'm scared. And I'm really f@cking angry. (Addendum now added).
It's 6:15 CST time, do you know where your recovery is?
Spoo futures = 1100.
The recovery is right here, dude.
Don't call me dude.
HomeGnome wrote:
Obviously, the Irish were not a part of the proceedings. The most subdued Irish wake I'm familiar with was when the neighbors burned the Widow Shaughnessy's house to the ground after securing insurance against same from the Italians. Now that was a wake!
Martin Wolf's latest column comes with a reminder about who is responsible for the financial crisis:
"To put it bluntly, the banking system has been gaming the taxpayer on an intolerable scale."
Here's the link:
FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - Victory in the cold war was a start as well as an ending
Meanwhile, in our fair state; the battle against the American Taliban marches on!
A federal judge has ruled unconstitutional a Christian "I Believe" vehicle license tag with the image of a cross authorized last year by the S.C. General Assembly.
"The 'I Believe' Act's primary effect is to promote a specific religion, Christianity," U.S. District Judge Cameron Currie wrote in a decision released Tuesday.
State laws promoting one religion over others have been illegal in the United States since the nation's founding, Currie wrote.
Currie also focused on the role played by Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who originally pushed for the Christian tag after a move to create a similar "I Believe" tag failed in Florida.
Judge strikes down plate - Local / Metro - TheState.com
(Reuters) - Unhappy over constraints imposed by U.S. government overseers, American International Group Inc Chief Executive Robert Benmosche told the company's board last week that he is considering stepping down, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter.
The giant insurer's chief executive is particularly unhappy over a recent compensation review by Kenneth Feinberg, the Treasury bailout program's special master for compensation, the paper said, citing the people.
Benmosche told AIG directors that he was "done" but agreed to think it over when they reacted with shock, the people told the paper.
---I think someone is getting a Big Bonus.
Federal courts squashed that already didn't they?
Comrade Kristina wrote:
only if they sat their fat ass on it
the word you're reaching for is 'quashed'
LOL, didn't need that mental picture. I can't help but wonder why they need a license plate to show what great Christians they are down here. The fish emblem along with the thirty seven Jesus magnets was already a dead giveaway.
All the high paid bankers can quit. Then they can hire cheaper bankers. One of the new qualifications should be common sense.
CK: That daily kos post brought tears and I don't cry. That reads like a Stephen King horror novel. I weep as this is all too common and I fear will become even more common as this economy forces acts of destruction upon ones self and then outward those unintended and extended families. Its always the children who suffer first and most; right along side the rest of the meek and weak who are silent. Brave little girl whose life will always be haunted without a respite.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
really, I agree
After all, a discreet tattoo is sufficient, especially if located in a strategic spot where one can be reminded just prior to committing a deadly sin. Some might need more than one....
Don't feel alone, I cried when I read it too...That little girl will be scarred for life. I know...all too well...I still bear those scars...
SC Lt. Governor Andre Bauer is a complete moron.
The license plate thing was just to gather future votes.
The funny thing is that SC only has back plates so they could put whatever they wanted to on the front but NO!
The American Taliban want your submission...
Nanoo
That was a scary story. As people lose jobs, however low end they may be, the stress increases. When people believe there is no way out, they get angry and lash out at the least able to protect themselves. That is usually the children.
Our Great Resession has a much larger cost than money.
I do not miss the bible thumpers one little bit. I learned the hard way, the more someone wears their religion on their sleeve, the more wary one should be of them in the workplace and elsewhere.
And CK, a lot of women bear scars (including me) some visible but the worst scars are invisible. The really sad part is this is little studied or reported about. Women are conditioned to be silent as if one reveals abuses it generally leads to more trouble, being called a liar or worse, being told they asked for it.
,rads y apparatchicas,
Good morning, from left-coast Appalachia...
Blackhalo wrote:
It is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. You had five plus agencies that did not do their job so what is the solution - merge them to create one huge agency with an increased scope of powers (including insurance and private equity), add an oversight agency and a new agency (the CFPA) and say it is all fixed. It will be a clusterfuck
morning JD
Terry wrote:
a lot less people to pay off
One can imagine the distinguished gentlemen caucusing: "We have to get a handle on this graft and corruption thing. So let's put them all under one agency."
We could keep the 5 agencies, add 3 and create more jobs.
Then they could fight over who does what, while no one does anything.
JD<
I took Tenn over Buffalo this week.
Blackhalo wrote:
How different is this from previous attempts by McCain and by previous Democratic Congresses? This isn't the first time. Also, how different is it than proposals by Ron Paul?
Is it truly new, or has Dodd just lumped the best part of each of these previous plans together to form a new one?
dryfly wrote:
Dryfly- I totally disagree. It was based on the political stability of the United States and its protection of individual property rights. This was at time when there was fear of communist take over in Europe and a whole host of less developed countries that routinely expropriated peoples assets or overthrew their governemnts. The problem for the dollar is that many of those conditions no longer exist. As Thomas Friedman put it many years ago- the US exported it "mojo" . Rule of law, respect of property and an efficient capital market. In short it is democracy overseas that undermining the dollar.
josap wrote:
At least Dodd's bill has a 5 member board overseeing it - Frank's bill had a single administrator with an advisory board - one person welding such power is dangerous. Waxman is trying to change the Frank bill to add the board concept.
The "solution" to what ails the economy is NOT going to come from government.
HomeGnome wrote:
you need to get control of your gambling habit
you should channel your energy into something more prudent, like equities, or real estate
Attorney General Eric Holder endorsed the Senate’s version of legislation that would extend three provisions of the Patriot Act that are slated to expire at the end of the year.
Holder wrote in a letter today to Senate Judiciary Committee members that he offers “strong support” for the USA Patriot Act Sunset Extension Act, which would reauthorize the “lone wolf,” records and “roving wiretap” powers. By contrast, a House version of the bill would not continue the “lone wolf” provision, which lets the government track targets who don’t have any discernible affiliation with terrorist or other foreign groups.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/resources/documents/111thCongress/upload/110909HolderToLeahy-Feinstein.pdf (Warning: Pee-Dee-Eff)
Search Results - THOMAS (Library of Congress)
HomeGnome, where do you think the solution will come from?
I don't see where we get real growth, good paying jobs or a finanaical system that doesn't screw main street.
What it doesn't address is the fact that hundreds of banks and credit unions will fail, and they will take a few insurance companies heavily invested in CRE with them, and the conusmer will still be broke and jobless. It is going to end up very ugly
,rads y apparatchicas,
In trying times, things don't always go according to Hoyle...
My grandfather was an architect, worldly, wealthy & wise, and he knew things were looking bad in 1938, so he put 5,000 Pounds in an English bank in Prague for each of his 3 children, including my father. Grandfather thought he'd be a smarty and out-think the nazi party, but when adolf's minions came calling in 1939, the English and French didn't want any hassles, so they let the stormtroopers take the assets from their banks in Czechoslovakia, including grandfather's deposits.
How much was 15,000 Pounds @ the time?
Gold Sovereigns were worth 2 pounds each, so the loss was just under $2 million, using the price of gold as a constant value.
Goodbye 15,000 Quid...
On that note: I was trying to answer my own questions about the Fannie deed to lease deals. What I found on the website left me GOBSMACKED. I found instructions for servicers. I did not find anything indicating who pays for property taxes or back taxes. I discovered also that few will likely be served by that swap deal. The deal also includes those who have rental properties of 6 or more..ugh. Wonder how the hell that works.
I think its highly likely that any deed to lease deals will be reported as SALES, agree?? for
Here's the one that got me breathing fire. https://www.efanniemae.com/mf/finsolutions/negotiatedpools.jsp
Wisconsin Avenue Securities (WAS) REMIC
Fannie Mae’s Wisconsin Avenue Securities (WAS) Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit (REMIC) allows you to time and/or credit tranche your loans, thus maximizing the securities offered to your investor base. With this flexible solution, we create guaranteed senior Fannie Mae securities and an unguaranteed B-piece security that can be rated and tranched.
Benefits and Features
•
Flexible solution with easy execution.
•
Competitive pricing.
•
Potential relief from risk-based capital, GAAP, or other accounting and regulatory requirements.
•
Option to split pool risk and immediately sell unwanted bonds.
•
Guaranteed timely payment of principal and interest for senior bonds.
•
Senior securities that may trade at higher prices than comparable private-label AAA-rated issues.
•
Recourse dependent on underlying collateral.
Requirements and Terms
•
Permanent loans on multifamily rental properties comprised of five or more units.
•
Loans must be “seasoned,” which means they must be closed.
•
Pools range from $200 million to $1 billion or above.
•
Lender works with a broker dealer to structure and distribute the securities. (Betcha those fees are sweet)
•
Fannie Mae determines the size of subordinate bonds.
•
Payments are applied based on a predetermined schedule (or waterfall) with principal payments to senior securities and losses absorbed by subordinate securities.
•
Principal payment priority to the senior security holders.
I see the economic crises as a symptom of a much larger social dis-ease.
YLSP wrote:
While I would like it to have been higher I think forcing originators to keep a portion of the loan on their books is a really good step since it forces the loan out of the shadows and into the regulatory oversight. I don't think it is a function of the amount of risk that is kept but rather once it goes on a banks books the bank examiners get a chance to look at and decide if it meets appropriate lending standard- if not they get to classify it. I haven't read the bill so don't know what happens to the securitized asset if a retained loan is classified. Also rather than increase the 10% I would prefer that there was a requirement that institutions subject to ERISA and depository institution using the FDIC guarantee can only purchase securitized assets where a portion of the loan is on the books of regulated financial institution. The problem is the shadow banking system.
,rad HG,
I wouldn't be so confident taking ugly over incompetence....
I got two offers for new credit cards in the mail yesterday. Sign of recovery?
Meanwhile, another neighbor just lost their job (as a patent attorney).
Those people who talked about decoupling were right. The upperclass is decoupling from the rest of the country. Sure going to be an interesting ride.
Gold: Another exhaustion gap, 1116 - 1109, 7 points, at the NY Spot opening. One of these won't close and will be the basis for the drop to 1045. When I see it, I'll short it. I don't gamble. Unless this is a low risk trade, I won't take it. It IMO is a gift if timed correctly. Gold of course is going to the Great Doubling. But along the way, there will be some pratfalls that will bring tears to all but the strongest hands. When the rest cry, I want to be right along in their flow of money in my direction. Meanwhile,those who hold gold, the long positions, are happy, but they're as relevant as the value of a Picasso on one's bedroom wall, or as valuable as MBS on vacant CRE. It feels good, but one doesn't eat the Picasso. I don't chew the coinage or the bars. They're just a store of value.
I'm definitely not comfortable with the decision but I went 10 : 3 with the picks last week.
Go Saints!
12th
did you notice what the rate was on the credit card offers?
There is only ONE winner at the end of the game Monopoly.
Blah blah pratfalls blah blah Picasso blah blah Great Doubling blah blah vacant CRE blah blah I don't gamble blah blah ad nauseum blah blah.
The infrastructure collapse is taking place in slow motion. The US will stick the world with its paper and devalue it by I'm guessing 75% from here, not just to J Sinclair's .52 estimated target. Evidences like the patent atty's job loss are just proofs that this is happening. Gold's rise? Proof. Stock market rise? Proof. Commodities rise? Proof. For those waiting for a public statement on the matter, your wait may be enhanced if you were sitting in a psychiatrist's office.
Who let the dog out?
Who?
Who?
Who?
As for the financial reform legslation, it basically takes the form of the British FSA, plus a few powers the FSA does not have - only problem - British banks and finanical firms got into the same shit as the U.S. Didn't work there so adopt it here. Add to that the British financial system only has banks that are TBTF.
,rad HG,
I was in a $500 buy-in fantasy football league with a bunch of OC new car dealers, once upon a time. It cost $25 to switch players out, etc. The pool was something like $12k, and back then, new car dealers had money.
I don't think I watched one entire NFL game that season, switching back & forth on Directv, hoping my lottery picks would either run or catch a TD pass-or be on the throwing end, for 99 yards.
Gold: Another exhaustion gap, 1116 - 1109, 7 points ........
"Slumdog, #122".
"Slumdog, #145".
"Slumdog, #122, once again, with feeling this time...................."
It's nice to see a path through the woods again, CR. A bit like old times.
This lends further credence to the wisdom of Joseph Stiglitz's view that the TARP money would have been put to better use funding a brand new bank - something that would have resulted in actual lending!
Gnomes don't gamble.
We wager.
I expect a lot of movement of tenants to the buildings they actually wanted to be in, instead of just what they were able to afford. Unlike with homes, most businesses are renters, and this is making them more mobile. They can move closer to their employees if they want (typically that means moving closer to top mgmt). They can move closer to business partners, customers, or the beach.
I also expect to see some "what can we do with all this free space" kinds of businesses out in the boonies. Indoor dog parks. Temperature controlled wine storage. Large warehouses converted to indoor athletic fields.
The bad part is that unless CA gets net immigration again, and employment rises, the vacancy rates will stay high. The State government keeps missing this point. I predict a long extended beating before they finally make getting businesses locating and expanding in CA a priority.
Not many politicians in CA really get this point. Haven't heard Steve Westly running for Governor, but he gets it.
If I hang on to worthless paper do you think the discounts will go low enough for me to buy a ex-mil$$ mcmansion? snark/
U.S. Home Sellers Slash Prices by $28.1 Billion, Trulia Says
full article here and includes some regional data: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601206&sid=a0U9AGII2WKk
......
Mish has up a good post on the new CRE rules issued by SheBair and her friends - spot on: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: New Rules and More Lies Hide Cancerous Commercial Real Estate Loans
Blog Jukebox
1 click per play
YouTube - Nigel Kennedy, Spanish Caravan
both offers identical
a big **0% for 12 months! **on the front of the envelop. The fine print
0% or 2.99% on balance transfers (based on your "creditworthiness"). Fee of 3% of total balance transfer.
12.99%-19.99% on new purchases (based on your..)
Quite a deal, huh? Last year this time Discover offered me $15,000 on new purchases at 0% free for a year. I took them up on their offer. I will be passing on these new offers.
homeGnome
ill see your moron and raise you my morons
In retrospect...
Being awarded a set 13.24% APR, @ just $495 a year, by that Visa Black credit card offering-doesn't seem so outrageous, compared to the 29.99% atroCiti is charging~
gabyjan: LOL! You'll win. (well maybe).
12th Percentile wrote:
Just a guess, I bet no one is creditworthy enough to get the zero interest deal.
Columbia, SC (WLTX) -- The City of Columbia has decided to cancel the Veterans Day Parade, scheduled for Wednesday, November 11, 2009.
The annual parade is one of the largest in the Southeast, but city leaders say inclement weather, expected as a result of Tropical Storm Ida, will keep them from continuing the tradition this year.
---Some of these guys stormed Normandy; I doubt a bit of rain will slow them down.
Was the Battle of the Bulge canceled because of snow?
Why does the city of Columbia hate our veterans?
It's almost as if unemployment became a...leading indicator...naaaaaah
World Bank warns unemployment threatens US economy
World Bank's Zoellick warns high unemployment rate threatens US economic recovery
By Alex Kennedy, Associated Press Writer
On 8:30 am EST, Wednesday November 11, 2009
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Stubbornly high joblessness threatens to trigger loan defaults and drag on consumption next year, hobbling a U.S. economy struggling to rebound from recession, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said Wednesday.
World Bank warns unemployment threatens US economy - Yahoo! Finance
terry
sort of like paulson and his 3 paged order for the 1st tarp?
energyecon wrote:
They are just now figuring out that the unemployed can't pay their debt. Cause Hoocoodanote?
gabyjan - I was thinking more like the EPA administrator on steroids.
nah...as long as
are employed the world is safe.
I read the transcript of Friday's CDC press briefing. It was hilarious as they tried to explain why GS etc. got vaccine while hospitals had none. That two step looked like Elaine dancing on Seinfeld.
Apparatchica gabyjan,
I liked Son of TARP, that came out after TARP one was torpedoed.
Fahrenheit 451 pages of inferno
I wish that hottie necklacing in the advert, would stop looking at me in such a fashion...
home
they dont have the money and they just dont want to say?
if all just went out and walked down the streets maybe up some streets, you know a self made parade?
energyecon
so world bank is saying that unemployment threatens.... luckly we got recovery already and we are going to have a" jobless" one so we dont need to worry about that unemployment.!
got that one somewhere on this computer,like to (when i find it) browse thur it for all the pork,
Should've been discounted and a new mortgage inked.