Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics and Gov't numbers

But the model used by the BLS for seasonal adjustments is very good, and the SA number is still the one to use.

CR: I have never seen anyone plot out the response of SA to a step function. By any chance, have you?

lol. I'd go with Retained Earnings myself.

fyi: payroll employment -> CES -> Birth/Death, caveat emptor

The way to look at NSA numbers is on a year over year basis...just sayin' (with a touch of moving average to smooth the edges just a bit)
.
enjoyed the conversation as always, but I've stayed up past my bedtime

doh, just finished reading the post
eh, I really don't know what tree Norris is trying to bark up
did he consult with his colleague that ran up zillions of mortgage debt to top-up his generous NYT salary so he could make his mistress happy?
is this from watching CNBC, is Jim Cramer giving him ideas?
really, he thinks now is the time to bring up the seasonal adjustment?
what next, the Floyd Norris law of only positive seasonal adjustments are allowed?
He doesn't even deserve the 2¢ the NYT would get if I clicked on the link to find out what brand of stupidity it is

OT: from last thread:

JP: my only thought is why this idiot with a resume showing him leading a bank into the ditch thought he could turn down offers while he waited for "equivalent" offers? He hasn't heard that even Jamie Dimon has heard the music in this musical chairs game has stopped, and it's now time to grab whatever chair you can?

edit: oops, I meant Chuck Prince of Citibank...

Nice catch on Waterford Bank -- I'll look forward to seeing them in BFF Hell, and raise to them a special glass of Pinot Noir.

Check out this analysis from Norris:

For some reason, October is the month with the largest seasonal adjustment down in jobs. So the increase in the unemployment rate does not reflect people actually losing jobs. It reflects the belief that seasonal factors should have added more jobs than they did.

All this may be very reasonable, and there is no way I can think of to test whether the seasonal adjustments are reliable. But I suspect seasonal factors are less important this year, when the economy may be changing directions, than they normally are.

Seriously, "for some reason"? then he discounts the seasonal adjustments because he "suspects" that they are less important this year, but without giving any reasons for their relative unimportance. For that matter, he doesn't even give us any inkling as to what those SA's even are...

CR, I agree that is an incredibly telling chart. Beautifully done as always!

The fact that we are still sinking at this point in the cycle is very disconcerting and has to put into question the words "recovery". When does a lagging indicator transition to a leading one? As I mentioned yesterday in my post about productivity, conventional/recent experience may not be telling in the current situation.

the current level is 12.1T

RE wrote:

The fact that we are still sinking at this point in the cycle is very disconcerting and has to put into question the words "recovery". When does a lagging indicator transition to a leading one?

Agreed. And of all the indicators, this is the one that leaves the person on the street absolutely unfooled. You can scream "RECOVERY" at them from the highest ramparts, but if they can't get a job, they're going to to be REALLY -- PISSED -- OFF.

Why the hell can't folks propose it in the states?

Furthermore I think various states should pass their own plus a Federal one together. If enough Federal ones pass tagged on to the states ones; will it trigger a Constitutional convention?

Great idea we can make the elites bohic-for the first time!

I think CR did the piece full justice, and Basel Too mopped up what was left standing.

All this may be very reasonable, and there is no way I can think of to test whether the seasonal adjustments are reliable.

a) I myself would like the model to be transparently published, with the only variables being the indeterminate survey answers,
b) Mr Floyd is asking the wrong question, it is very easy to see if seasonal adjustments are reliable by looking at historical data and comparing SA with NSA
c) as to the correct question of whether SA are reliable in the current context, there is no way of knowing. That's why you need to pay attention to details, and source your opinions from a wide swath of data.
d) if you are prepared to announce your disbelief of the last month's data, please do follow through and consider what your disbelief would mean over the course of the full year. remember B/D is pre-seasonally adjusted, so best strip that out entirely

from wiki:

United States Constitution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
if two-thirds of the state legislatures demand [a Constitutional Amendment], Congress must call for a constitutional convention, which would have the power to propose amendments. As no such convention has been called, it is unclear how one would work in practice. In two instances—reapportionment in the 1960s and a balanced federal budget during the 1970s and 1980s—attempts to use this process have fallen two states short of triggering a constitutional convention.

Regardless of how the amendment is proposed, it must also be ratified by three-fourths of states. Congress determines whether the state legislatures or special state conventions ratify the amendment. The 21st Amendment is the only one that employed state conventions for ratification.

I do believe that this mechanism (constitutional convention) can actually rewrite the entire Constitution, sort of like what happened with the Articles of Confederation.

DCRogers wrote:

Agreed. And of all the indicators, this is the one that leaves the person on the street absolutely unfooled. You can scream "RECOVERY" at them from the highest ramparts, but if they can't get a job, they're going to to be REALLY -- PISSED -- OFF.

I agree. I believe we have just entered a secular "disillusionment" trend. People are starting to realize that a great many of the Orwellian phrases that they were told do not hold any water. The harsher the downturn the less predictable the social situation will become. The U.S. has been the most trusting country of any I have visited in the messages of the media. I think many are underestimating what can happen here.

RE wrote:

I think many are underestimating what can happen here.

+1

I was out Sunday night with old friends (really old,..some are sixty!) and none of them were very optimistic. These were the ones who thought I was just a doom and gloomer. I kept my mouth shut for once,...no need to pile it on.

sdtfs wrote:

Is October when we start to see the holiday day season hires?

Yes. October is normally the biggest month for job advertising, although last year peak job advertisements were pushed back into November.
November is the biggest hiring month. Then the whole economy pretty much does nothing but cut jobs until March

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

He doesn't even deserve the 2¢ the NYT would get if I clicked on the link to find out what brand of stupidity it is

I think it's worthwhile, if only for the satisfaction of spitting in his comments section. Norris has had some sensical writings on occasion at the past -- this is no Gretchen, the poor soul -- but this ain't his finest hour.

I also think the establishment survey is pretty worthless at this point. Aggregate statistics like that are just brutally hard to tabulate accurately, birth/death aside. I put a lot more stock in the household measures, where statistical significance arrives in just a few small envelopes.

DCRogers
In economics there is a lack of appreciation for accuracy, and parameter sensitivity. At least in my experience. Also when mistakes are found it takes years before practices are amended. If we're lucky, the B/D model will be revised to handle a recession where layoffs at large firms does not mean huge small business creation by default

layoffs a[t] large firms does not mean huge small business creation by default

I realized that the small business creation legend could be true, with the proviso that the failure rate for small business start-ups is phenomenally high. Some of them undoubtedly fail before the business cards are delivered.

http://www.dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/000000/70000/3000/400/73431/73431.strip.gif?ref=patrick.net

hi scott adams, how are you?

LSE computer glitch hits 300 stocks
Posted by Gwen Robinson on Nov 10 04:22. Comment.

A technical problem at the London Stock Exchange halted trading in nearly 300 UK stocks on Monday, including the exchange’s own shares. Trading was frozen from 3:04pm until the close due to the failure of one server, More…

A technical problem at the London Stock Exchange halted trading in nearly 300 UK stocks on Monday, including the exchange’s own shares. Trading was frozen from 3:04pm until the close due to the failure of one server, the exchange said. The glitch affected one in 12 of its UK markets, including other blue chips such as BP and Severn Trent. LSE, which said it was “continuing to investigate” the issue, set closing prices based on the last automatic trade executed, or the bid and offer price for quote-driven stocks.

Are these glitches being reported more, or is there more strain on the exchanges -- because I find it unlikely that there is just a string of chance

http://wayne.s.world.free.fr/Wayne/Sons/chuh1.wav

apparently zerohedge's plan was/is to go commercial with a venture whereby random people submit their hot tips, and zerohedge sells access to the info to asset managers

purple - very true
I know latin americans with good degrees doing menial work ....

A question related to seasonal employment (Well, actually conjecture):

I would expect that most people collecting UI wouldn't expect to get enough hours/income doing holiday retail to justify going off unemployment. If so, that leaves that field open to the traditional holiday help, students and retirees.

picosec -
In california, if you make money while on UI, your benefit is pro-rated down. So getting a part-time doesn't get you "kicked off" UI.

picosec wrote:

If so, that leaves that field open to the traditional holiday help, students and retirees.

Nope, too many unemployed that have run out of benefits and/or been dismissed from being marginally attached to labor force.

traderwalt
Why not refer to the CPS (aka Household survey) instead of the CES (aka Payroll survey) then ?
CR is right to critique the piece.

if your gut has a gripe with NFP, which seems to be the reason for the piece, then what about weekly hours, what about temp firms, what about job postings, what about ADP data, what about diffusion surveys, what about income less transfers, etc...
If you want to discount data, it is for your own good that you do the research and build a case for doing so -- and Mr Norris didn't even begin to consider the negative consequences of ditching SA. Hopefully he comes through in the end, if for nothing other than to repent subpar journalism, and write a more thorough piece as a follow-up. Bonus points if he cleans up the logic and makes a persuasive call for increased transparency in BLS seasonal adjustments / model construction.

EHP,
You seem confident he is paying attention to the comments here.... hmmmmmmmmmm.........

More from the TARP COP, they seem to get it and have great research staff:

In addition to direct monetary costs, the guarantee programs discussed in this report have
broader costs resulting from the moral hazard that arises when the government agrees to
guarantee the assets and obligations of private parties. Generally, the question of moral hazard
arises when a party is protected, or expects to be protected, from loss. The insured party might
take greater risk than it would otherwise, and market discipline is undermined. The problem is more pronounced when the protected party is not required to purchase the
protection. For example, investors and issuers of commercial paper paid nothing directly for
Treasury’s guarantee of MMFs. TGPMMF served to backstop not only the funds themselves, but also the commercial paper market to which the funds are so crucial. It should also be noted that the fees the government charged the
financial institutions for the guarantees in all of the programs were lower than fees commercial
entities would have charged for the same protection.

I swear every time they write a report it opens up a door for a lawsuit or they question whether Treasury has legal authority.

Wow! Great stuff:

A larger issue arises when one considers the implicit guarantees, those that are paid for
by neither party, but whose cost is borne by the taxpayer. The DGP and TGPMMF both carry
fees paid for by the financial institutions. But their existence, and the existence of the other
elements of the bailout of the financial system, could imply that there is a permanent, and “free,”
insurance provided by the government, especially for those institutions deemed “too big to fail,”
or “too connected to fail.” There is an implication that, in the case of another major economic
collapse, the government will again step in to prop up the financial system, especially the “too
big to fail” institutions. This moral hazard creates a real risk to the system.
This “free” insurance causes a number of distortions in the marketplace. On the financial
institution side, it might promote risky behavior. On the investor and shareholder side, it will
provide less incentive to hold management to a high standard with regard to risk-taking. By
creating a class of “too big to fail” institutions, it has provided these institutions with an
advantage with respect to the pricing of credit:
Creditors who believe that an institution will be regarded by the government as
too big to fail may not price into their extensions of credit the full risk assumed by
the institution. That, of course, is the very definition of moral hazard. Thus the
institution has funds available to it at a price that does not fully internalize the
social costs associated with its operations. The consequences are a diminution of
market discipline, inefficient allocation of capital, the socialization of losses from supposedly market-based activities, and a competitive advantage for the large
institution compared to smaller banks.
The implied guarantee of “too big to fail” institutions might also result in a concentration
of risk in this group, resulting in greater danger to the taxpayer if and when the government must
step in again.

My eyes may be glazing over and I'm tired; but this is great great reading and basic "Moral Hazard 101" teaching from the TARP COP.

Additionally, a new phrase... Too Connected to Fail...

YSLP, I was making a comment about how people feel about the unemployment situation when they don't delve into the actual data. Most of us won't know if our neighbor or cousin worked fewer hours last month, but we probably would find out if she got a job. I was speaking about how people may feel psychologically about the situation, not about economic analysis.

Iceland has the runs?

C

and Ireland has been approved for an experimental distended deficit EU to extend Irish deficit target - The Irish Times - Tue, Nov 10, 2009

A new EU forecast last week projected that Ireland’s deficit will rise to 14.7 per cent in 2010, among the highest in the euro zone and the wider EU, from 12.5 per cent this year and 7.2 per cent in 2008.

while Pfizer is right-sizing their R&D Pfizer's New Layout. In the Pipeline: (worth reading the comments. heavy cuts. but optimistic for China and India hiring)

Come Feb the B/D imputations are corrected to align with the data. My guess is another 840,000 added to the UE rolls.

So, if we have another mediocre Christmas season. SA unemployment numbers for November and December will look grim because of hiring that doesn't happen, but January will look good because the seasonal adjustments expect layoffs of people that weren't ever hired? And maybe by February we'll know where we are?

Rather than have all these reports that sample, adjust, use different sources of information - the IRS should just report monthly payroll tax collected. Self employed could be reported and the number adjusted quarterly. Bonus payments would also need an adjustment. Stock as part of income wouldl need an adjustment. Do we include healthcare and 401k in the numbers?

Never mind - that won't get us any real numbers either.

I agree yogi, if they just don't look everything must be ok.

Until it bites us in the butt.

Trickle down is piss.

If banks competed for market share why would they lend one another huge sums overnight so they don't fail?

I get so fed up with the lame nonsense of "who could have foreseen this crisis?"
It was (and still is) the direct result of stupid deregulation in the name of paper profits.

Yeah, we know government is usually corrupt and efficient. We also know lack of government is always worse.

Obama has studied his JFK playbook the max even aping his rhetorical devices such as:
On the one hand, Mr. Obama said, “we’re not looking to change what is the principle that has been in place for a very long time, which is federal dollars are not used to subsidize abortions.”
On the other hand, he said, he wanted to make sure “we’re not restricting women’s insurance choices,” because he had promised that “if you’re happy and satisfied with the insurance that you have, it’s not going to change.”
I wonder if the reporter purposely left out 'while at same time' ... see Halberstam on JFK's usage.
What is this man saying?

Don't get me started, Broward.

I hear the same tired, absurd cliches repeated ad nauseum and the blood still boils.

The "private enterprise, free market" utopian model was ridiculous on its face when presented to me in Economics class in high school, and plenty of economists had been saying as much for decades. But for the last 30 years its gained even more acceptance.
"Assume perfect information, no transaction costs, no violence, no fraud, no monopoly pricing power, no barriers to entry, etc.

The self-delusion is monumental.

this just in: AP Wire
LONDON (Reuters) - The world is closer to a peak in oil supply than International Energy Agency estimates admit, UK newspaper The Guardian reported in its Tuesday edition, citing an unidentified "whistleblower" at the IEA.

The IEA, which advises 28 industrialized countries on energy policy, is scheduled to release its World Energy Outlook on Tuesday. It 2008 Outlook forecasts world oil supply will rise to 106 million barrels per day in 2030...
...
the article also discusses Peak demand... - NY Times

just watched Avatar the extended release in HD, I think I know where the storyline goes...
disabled Marine (Col Pike in Star Trek) becomes Avatar and goes to planet to move the savages off land that has the greatest supply
of some crystal which sells for 20 mil a kilo. meets beautiful female Na'vi who inexplicably wears a bikini top and what do you thing happens? His nemesis becomes the Colonel, a Kilgore like figure, who not only offered Sully new legs but later will stop at nothing to stomp the Na'vi to death if need be. The Na'vi do have these cool pterodactyls at their beck and call. But they still look fake... for the longest time I was trying to think who my ninja Kill Bill friend looks like - a Na'vi, also the same same and body type. Weird.

josap
never said ti wouldn't be a fun movie but at 320 mil in production before the additional 150 mil for P&A
it's a bit tough too swallow (like paying A-Rod 250 mil over 10 years), consider how much that dries up the
film financing pool - that would easily finance a 12 to 14 picture slate.
wonder when they will figure out a way to securitize film financing. this i would not be against since at the end
we might have a few masterpieces... private equity has a big stake in this movie and I keep hearing things
that are opposites - big ad budget or a throttling back on ads ...
.....
a number of sights that I check I see where the feminine factor is a big turn off.
Sully as a na'vi seems effeminate, girl seems to wear the pants.
doesn't bother me a but but outside of NYC I see this come up a lot on YouTube

1 Currency
that was almost the exact line used by Condi Rice when she testified before Congress:
"who could have foreseen this crisis?"
considering the CIA spends 70 bil a year surely they pay for guys sitting around brain storming
about various attack strategies. it wouldn't have taken an Einstein. her answer was duplicitous
and she know there is no way to call her on it...

Mornnnnning all, another day of myth busting.

I lost all respect for her after the Congressional hearing with the smoking gun/mushroom cloud reference (think that was on meet the press) and Condi's explanation about the Prz Daily Brf that headlined - bin Laden planning to attack US.
there was no reason for Bush to be on vacation after just 7 1/2 months on the job. equal in my criticism is Clinton's refusal to accept censure or step down - maybe in 50 years we'll find out the Lewisinki case took nearly all his time...
...
yep, josap everyone has an excuse these day! that is the most troubling aspect of it all...



d

11/10/- 234th Marine Corps birthday!

FAIL!

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- At least three U.S. banks failed in the past year after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. deemed them healthy enough to qualify for a program that reduced the time examiners spent on reviews by at least 20 percent.

The three lenders -- FirstCity Bank in Stockbridge, Georgia, Security Pacific Bank in Los Angeles and 1st Centennial Bank in Redlands, California -- were among the banks included in the agency’s Merit program, designed to increase efficiency by focusing examiners’ attention on weaker firms. The program, launched in 2002, was terminated in March 2008 after examiners complained that the guidelines usurped their judgment.

“The program was misconceived from the beginning,” said Colleen Kelley, president of the National Treasury Employees Union, which represents the examiners. “Employees believed the procedures were directed more at reducing examination hours than at ensuring proper supervision.”

FDIC’s 20% Shorter ‘Merit’ Reviews Preceded Failures (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

"not our fault."

Josap is right.

......c'mon yogi.............use some material from in THIS century......

lost-confused
wrote:
11/10/- 234th Marine Corps birthday!...
obviously, you weren't raised by a man who thought you raised children Marine boot camp style...
to that I will say Semper Bl** Me!
the concept behind boot camp is to destroy all sense of individuality, to make the recruit into a clump
and then rebuild him... works great when your objective is to build a killing machine
but it has NO place in child's developmental environment

ps - I was born in Quantico

The Not-So-Great Santini.

Bad enough we have to suffer through Democratic stupidity.

When the Change comes; it will alter everything.

Mozilla's Adblock Plus (free) nicely gets rid of unsightly banner ads. (Now if only I could block talk of the ads in posts)

On you to tip CR...or maybe you find banner ads useful?

Sorry Yogi, I find some of them amusing because I'm as sick and twisted as JD.

lost-confused
at least you saw action in the field... dad never did but that doesn't stop him form telling everyone he did...
from Korea to Vietnam, depends on this audience ...
I salute you!
but what is done in boot camp should stay in boot camp and not be brought home...
he was only in the regulars for 4 and the reserve for 16... retired as a major but tells
everyone he's a retired colonel....
...
got issues for sure

Good morning, all... wonder if today will be the day.

Riots and strikes in Newark, I fear.

---I busted out number 70/350. 36 was the money. Lost a big hand with AQ to KQ, and some nut called one of my very few bluffs bluff with q high (I had a Jack). Had to push with a draw, hit it but opponent filled up on river. Will do more, especially if my cash winnings continue...

Good luck, yogi.
Bring home the, um, bacon.

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

There simply isn't the staff to comply with their mandates and why in some places the care for our veterans is so awful and shameful.

......quite simply, if the FedGov can't enforce current regs, then those regs shouldn't be. (With rare exceptions, If you can't chew up and swallow something in your mouth, maybe it shouldn't be there in the first place!)

Governmental S.O.P.

Promise Everything; Deliver Nothing!

Sounds like most of the men I dated in my life...there is a joke in there somewhere...

WASHINGTON -- Nearly a year before Maj. Nidal Hasan allegedly went on a shooting rampage at Fort Hood, terrorism investigators conducted an "assessment" of him before deciding he did not pose a threat.

//snip
In Washington, an investigative official and a Republican lawmaker said Hasan had communicated 10 to 20 times with Anwar al-Awlaki, an imam released from a Yemeni jail last year who has used his personal Web site to encourage Muslims across the world to kill U.S. troops in Iraq. Despite that, no formal investigation was opened into Hasan, they said.
404 - Not Found - sacbee.com

---SO was there an "investigation" or not?
Please remove your shoes and empty your pockets before answering.
And be aware your answer can and WILL be used against you in a secret military tribunal at a secret prison.

Riots and strikes in Newark, lots of good it's gonna do. NJ is now # 51 behind the other States and DC that are in just as bad or maybe worse shape than they are. Just need to embrace the MYTH, recovery is here, jobs for everyone, just line up down at HD.

there were posters on this blog yearning to flee the meltdown to new zealand

even more desirable now, free market weeding out of the inefficient has given us a duopoly engaged in grocery gouging

'No doubt' Kiwis pay more for groceries | Stuff.co.nz

get in now or be priced out forever

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

We pay very high gasoline taxes

Not compared to Europe. Of course they use theirs to subsidize a very effective rail service, more so than roadway, I think. But that would not be so good for GM if we were to do the same.

BSR
don't mean to crap on the marines, they're a fine org but to have to listen to that DI manque
screaming inches from my face was not a positive experience!
knew a Marine Silver Star from 'Nam who actually apologized to me for such treatment...
dad missed his officer bump after 4 years in Regs, he came out of ROTC (not that he ever told anyone)
guess it's a long wait till promotion comes around again....
his claim about on the cusp of going to war was being called up happened in Oct '62.
I pointed out that everyone was called up - global thermonuclear war in the offing.
One day I'll read the Great Santini...
back to movies and UE

Duke of Con Dao wrote:

One day I'll read the Great Santini...

Pretty damn good movie if you have not seen it.

Blackhalo and yogi,

Yes, but Europe does maintain its roads and bridges to a higher standard than we do. All in all, I'd say EU residents get frequent evidence of their taxes applied in ways they appreciate.

I'm soo stoopid. How come Lloyds and RBS is being traded whole after Brown stated that they are to be busted up and also required BIG TIME funds to maintain themselves beyond what they got already just last week?? There's also news this morning that 5K jobs are to be cut at Lloyds...good grief....I'm obviously just a moron who probably doesn't deserve the air I breathe.

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

EU pays and probably overpays big time; but at least taxpaying schmucks get something in return for it.

Special interest capture of both political parties leaves little for the rest of us. I have heard the true believers say that a 3rd party vote is wasted, but I would argue just the opposite.

Morning all - the NSA is hiring ad reduced my need for coffee this morning - saw this report posted over at ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/TCR%20Commercial%20Real%20estate%20ZHB.pdf

CR - what are your thoughts on Casey's report?

You're in luck! A new party has been registered in Florida! It is called the "Tea Party"...Florida embarrasses itself once again...

Spunkmeyer wrote:

Yes, unlike many Americans, most Europeans can see the connection between taxes and a civilized society.

But to Nanoo's point, it appears that Euros actually GET something for their money...

I really hate to leave all you fine people this morning; but, I will be adding to the economy today; specifically small business and self-employed. Hopefully I'll have some energy left to return today to catch up on the news.

Be well and safe all.

EDIT: I hope you've all learned by now that I am the QUEEN of run-on sentences. lol. I blame coffee.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

You're in luck! A new party has been registered in Florida! It is called the "Tea Party"...Florida embarrasses itself once again...

(R) not getting nutty enough already?

Anybody see any good pre-Black Friday deals on anthracite?

Peak Oil: WhistleBlower at IEA Claims Oil Production Statistics Are Manipulated

Jesse's Café Américain: Peak Oil: WhistleBlower at IEA Claims Oil Production Statistics Are Manipulated

No, I didn't yogi.

Well I am glad Mrs. Gnome and I didn't visit there.

I wonder the dimensions of an individual's trash, built up into a pyramid over the course of a lifetime...

King Tut & Co. were pikers compared to us~

Elephants and Asses trampling the Masses!

China's Premier Warns Obama to Get America's Deficit to an "Appropriate Size"

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/368426/China's-Premier-Warns-Obama-to-Get-America's-Deficit-to-an-%22Appropriate-Size%22?tickers=FXI,TBT,TLT,PGJ,UDN,%5EDJI,%5EGSPC

Barack Obama pledges to tackle Beijing on yuan

Barack Obama pledges to tackle Beijing on yuan - Telegraph

Grab your popcorn

I'll put my bet on the creditor.

Never said I was in combat...never fired my weapon in anger....missed the Tet offensive (this was when even the cooks grabbed their weapons and stood on the line), I was in the rear with the gear...Marine Air wing...

My mother told me a saying before I left for active duty (booth camp), their old soldiers and their are bold soldiers, but very few old bold soldiers...

This was supposed to be funny.

What else can you do with giant ?

Get America's Deficit to an "Appropriate Size"

In what, dollars? OK, we'll raise it to 4 trillion. We can go higher if you'd like, Premier.

I don't think they need to sell, just refuse to roll over any more. Cash out and buy hard candy. Oil is still cheap, in glod.

Why not blow the US outta the water by crushing the USD?
Yep, Hu take a big loss but what is gained?

"There are certain levels of survivability that we are willing to consider"

Who knows what the truth of the situation is?
Maybe the Chinese are just as stupid and arrogant as US "leadership".

Kabuki theater. How does China sell that debt, without busting the Dollar peg? Hu says, "Stop selling us crack," while O' says, "Stop buying our crack," all while both parties have no desire for the other to actually stop.

'Perpetual Emotion Machine'

How so?

Well, if you've got a solid majority in both Houses, and still can't pass legislation, you're doing it wrong.

And the fact that Lieberman still has a committee chairmanship tells you all you need to know.

OT
I saw the Grand Kabuki at the Met in '85. what set designs that had.
plus they had the national treasure of Japan - Tomasuburo.
the guy could make these clothing changes in seconds when he went behind
the shoji screen and transform into a man or woman with intricate attire and makeup
and hair to boot...

Charlie Gasparino: Job Losses Could Trigger Round 2 of Banking Crisis
* If unemployment ticks higher, more consumer loans are likely to go into default and banks may have problems covering the additional loan losses. For now, banks are thriving from a low interest rate environment that allows them to borrow for nearly nothing and invest in safe Treasuries at 3.5%. That could all change if they need to boost reserves.
* Banks may find it difficult to raise more capital after already taking billions from the government. Are you willing to lend to zombie banks like Citigroup and Bank of America? Even relatively healthy banks like JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo might find it difficult.
* Toxic assets still infect the banking industry. Gasparino says $7 trillion in derivatives isn't a problem that goes away overnight, especially if the economy gets worse and their value falls once again. "It took 30 years to build this toxic assets, they [banks] haven't sold a lot of it, they haven’t written it down to zero," he warns.

" I was in the rear with the gear...Marine Air wing...

REMF- "

Well, what Agent Orange caused to Vietnamese babies, I'd say REMF was much better than "oh yeah, I was there at the front line". There is this lovely museum in Vietnam that might be worth visiting....