shill, re: Electronic Arts
if you go to https://jobs.ea.com/jobs/viewjobs.aspx and painstakingly click off every box and 'OR' to see the entire hiring for the $6.32bn market cap, $4.2bn revenue, ~9000 employee company, has ZERO openings of any kind posted
and their industry has fared better than most
watching the equities markets is like sitting slack-jawed watching a train wreck in super-slo-mo as the conductor pushes the accelerator to FULL FORWARD. Amazing.
This 'suckers' going down (anyway)...regardless of TARP and all the rest of the 'stimulus'...get ready...for the bust part of the boom...thanks to trusty econ and monetary policies in the public interest...
Sorry for the thread jack but the OMB director Orszag made an interesting point last week that I haven't seen covered.
"One recent study, for example, found that graduating during a period of high unemployment leads to depressed initial wages–-roughly 6 percent on average for every one percentage point increase in unemployment. This negative wage effect declines only slowly over time: to 5 percent after five years, 4 percent after 10 years, and 3 percent even 15 years after graduation.
Remember, that’s for each percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. When most of today’s seniors entered NYU, the unemployment rate was about 5 percentage points lower than it is today.
You can do the math.
Another way of looking at it: when one compares the wages earned by the class of 1982 (a peak unemployment year) with the wages of the class of 1988 (a peak employment year) over the first 20 years of a career, the difference – on a net present value basis – averages $100,000."
Just got the word - several friends of mine were laid off today from a real estate/building industry association in DC. Much of its budget comes from membership dues, which are obviously down given the current state of the construction industry as a whole. Cause and effect.
update: apparently EA had over 10,000 employees at year end last year. down to 9,000 by March, and sounds like they might let another 1000 go by year end. 20% headcount cut. zero churn.
Correction to my comment in the last thread: looks like we're going to top Friday's volume after all, but we're still significantly lower than the 13 prior trading days.
apparently EA had over 10,000 employees at year end last year. down to 9,000 by March, and sounds like they might let another 1000 go by year end. 20% headcount cut. zero churn.
Sprint Nextel dumping 2500 bodies overboard before EOY.
are you in the mad max camp and therefore it doesn't matter who does what?
Not exactly. I assuming the Ben's of world (TPTB) know they've got two choices. A total-all-in-bet to preserve the top 1%'s assets (and way of life) -OR- a severe economic hit (maybe even a collapse) to the top 1% that isn't politically possible. So, they (TPTB) are doing exactly what they should be doing.
I’m assuming we’ll end-up in a less-than mad-max situation for the peasants.
I just wanted to add regarding the financing of offers it appears that 7 out of 10 homes are being bought cash and conventional. I would say that most cash or conventional are investors. According to this it appears that FHA buyers are getting marginalized. It seems like the reverse is true when it comes to offers on properties, like 7 out of 10 offers are FHA.
sportsfan (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 3:48 pm
Blackhalo, RiF,
Left a reply on the last thread, well after the
I agree. It is actually a positive sign that lenders are looking through a loss mitigation standpoint. Soon enough so will the rest of the country, or no immanent on the horizon.
Mixed signals on commercial property - Investment News
“But it won't be this crescendo of property dumped on the market like the early 1990s,” when Resolution Trust Corp. forced savings institutions to dispose of failed property, said David Lynn, managing director of research and investment strategy for ING Clarion Partners LLC, which manages about $40 billion in commercial real estate. “There won't be fire sale prices, because everyone is ready for it,” he said.
Trying to ease his angry investors...Lies only make it worse when it happens, Mr. Lynn. The commercial dumping will be spectacular. You know it.
They have had population and jobs leave the state, so the housing is going to be a long term issue that isn't easily solved.
The weather in TX can't compare, but the taxes in CA make it worth the exodus for companies.
Time did an article about Detroit housing, and had an interesting graph about peak population, interestingly enough I believe both San Diego and Dallas (Dallas proper, not suburbs) had peak population decades ago, but nowhere near as far back as Detroit which I believe peaked in the 60's.
re: CR's post
as a reminder, REO and other distressed sales are not counted by Case-Shiller or the FHFA HPI among other exclusions (rightly so mind you, but it's important to keep it in mind at this time)
CR had blog posts on both the Moody's and the MIT Index reports when they were released, but this article contrasts the two and brings in additional facts and opinions going both ways with regard to the near term future of CRE.
My impression is that there is more fresh money chasing distressed CRE than there is fresh CRE coming available. That may be precisely why prices are showing a nearly 12% jump in the potential prices at which buyers are willing to trade.
There's a lot of competition at the lowball level.
Sorry if this doesn't fit with the prevailing doom and gloom.
"Buy this empty office buiding for only 60% of what we paid for it! Who cares if cap rates have tripled since then, our building is now only half full from 94%, and our remaining tenants pay 60% of the rent that they were when we bought the building. 40% is a deal, baby! You don't get deals like this everyday!"
The central bankers and economists have screwed the situation up so badly now with their inflationary policies I think they know that it's inevitable that they get tarred and feathered, so they're just going to keep printing and spending as long as they can to hold off judgment day even if the coming collapse is getting bigger and bigger every day.
The bubbles will continue until the monetary and political systems creating them collapse.
re: CR's post
as a reminder, REO and other distressed sales are not counted by Case-Shiller or the FHFA HPI
"In the quarter, 21,298 homes sold in the Chicago metropolitan statistical area (MSA), up 2.4% from 20,802 in Q308. The median sales price for the Chicago area was $205,000, down 16.3% from $244,900 in Q308. The MSA includes Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties."
I’m assuming we’ll end-up in a less-than mad-max situation for the peasants.
As am I. The difference, perhaps, in our views, is that I don't believe the top 1% (or even 5%) will be affected at all, no matter what happens short of mad max. They will still be the uberwealthy and thus the most powerful group.
sportsfan - The true beginning of two-tiered economic life. Either you are in the speculative economy floating on capital, or you are a serf toiling in the real one.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
I don't see an end or a solution to CA's ills.
Three or four new states.
Well eight actually but you had better get your act together and relocate before we Venturans dynamite Mugu Rock* and barricade the 101 and 118. Don't say I didn't warn you.
At the last meeting I suggested we allow Malibu to join us but got shouted down. Sorry.
Sacto RE may be distressed, but the prices don't reflect it. Prices have plateau-ed at about 33% from peak and need to correct another 20% or more to reach any kind of fair valuation.
Some properties have been marked UP 20% since summer.
Citicards loves to communicate with its cardholders.
They upped my rate to 16% several months back. They upped a lot of people to 30% recently. I also recently got a "preapproved" offer for a 0% rate for a year on purchases and balance transfers.
And now they sent me a communique that my rate is being upped again, to 20%, but if I balance transfer $3K in the next month, my rate will drop to 10% until January 1, 2011.
I get the feeling Citicards just can't make up their minds. And i sense a certain level of panic, running from one customer to the next, trying to sniff out which ones will default and which ones are safe bets.
That is the doom perspective. Not everyone sees it that way. Personally, I think 1Q10 will be the bottom in CRE in most areas, but that's just a guess. The safe move is to buy low enough to underbid the competition for tenants and thus to lock in a profit potential in any worst case scenario short of mad max.
If it all falls down, nothing to do with 'profit' will matter much anyway.
"JP Morgan Chase is reportedly holding more than $1 of every $10 on deposit in the US. The four biggest super banks (JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citibank) now issue one of every two mortgages and about two of every three credit cards in the US. Since the financial crisis, these four super banks are each allowed to hold more than 10% of the nation's deposits, having been exempted from a longstanding rule barring such market dominance. In several metropolitan regions, these new super banks are now permitted to take market share beyond what the Department of Justice's anti-trust guidelines previously allowed. " Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs
RE: ERTS - Ricietello's deal with Elevation Partners was some of the most blatant self-dealing every witnessed in corporate America, IMO. Not incidental that the company's market cap is around a third of when that happened. The entire corporate culture there was always based around stock options and never around actual profits and certainly not innovation, which they have avoided like the plague for about a decade now.
NaRm - I can understand that. It would break your heart if you had one and considered "those people" to be people. It would also occur to you that keeping your speculative economy afloat was only possible because you were robbing the real one either now or with future obligations. Luckily as a noble smart amoral-scumbag, you don't feel a thing.
I hope for an unintentional alternative but then again I am an optimist.
The true beginning of two-tiered economic life. Either you are in the speculative economy floating on capital, or you are a serf toiling in the real one.
RiF, one of the great tragedies of this decade has been (and/or will be) the destruction of the American Middle Class.
I don't know what can replace something of that cultural magnitude.
The safe move is to buy low enough to underbid the competition for tenants and thus to lock in a profit potential in any worst case scenario short of mad max.
Ever hear of tenants going broke and walking away from leases. You cannot lock-in profit. Dude.
Yeah, those 18th century waste disposal systems are pretty embarrassing.
The funny thing is those systems work better than fine as designed. Their "failure" is one of zoning. The sustainable density is far less than was shoehorned into the sub-region.
I hope for an unintentional alternative but then again I am an optimist.
I'm not saying I agree with it morally. I'm saying it is the correct solution from the point of view of TPTB (the smart amoral scumbags). Like I said before, I'm an amoral scumbag (when I'm at my best) but not smart enough, so I'm going to get screwed too. But, I no longer hold it against the nobility. They are just doing what I'd do if I WERE smart enough.
The safe move is to buy low enough to underbid the competition for tenants and thus to lock in a profit potential in any worst case scenario short of mad max.
But when those competitors get beat by your lower capital requirements, they go BK and sell to someone else who will then have the lowest capital costs and under cut you. CRE is going to be a long, slow, deflation, barring a new bubble or hyper-inflation.
sportsfan (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 4:19 pm
RiF, one of the great tragedies of this decade has been (and/or will be) the destruction of the American Middle Class.
I don't know what can replace something of that cultural magnitude.
Nothing. We've always had the poor, and we've always had the nobility. Anything in between was made possible through the progress of civilization, and these gains will be erased at least for a while. It is not going to be pretty but the workings of the money power rarely are.
It's the percentage of doom verse non-doom. I'm still thinking there's a good percentage chance (less that 50% more than 30%) that TPTB will avoid a collapse. Never underestimate the stupidity of the peasants and in their ability to believe complete BS. All it will take is another tulip craze.
sf -- Not that life has to totally suck. There were good nobles just like there were good slaveowners. But it will be a 'service' economy, in the true sense of the word. The nobility can't run this complex nightmare on its own, plus doing work is uncool in the extreme for true nobility.
I don't think everybody here comprehends the amount of overbuilding in CRE plus the costs of recent construction at the top versus the negative returns on current and falling rents plus everything else...
right on cue, More Bombardier job cuts possible, Beaudoin says - The Globe and Mail
Bombardier warning about more layoffs (4,440 this year laid off from 66,900 workforce)
I tried to warn crab-man summers that the stimulus wasn't enough
wait and see how the H2 recovery plays out is winding up
I truly think saving the existing financial system was a big mistake. There should have been shared suffering. As it is, we will have an enriched and empowered a financial over-class that will rule for at least a generation.
Too many people now realize that wealth is not earned but garnered through financial shams.
I know I don't comprehend it. But I do see, and drive thru occasionally, a brand new development behind my zombie office. There are at least 6 empty "building sets" (groups of small commercial spaces 4 - 6 building each, one and two story) that are empty. The oldest one has been empty sense it was built 2 years ago. They kept building. All empty. It's amazing. It appears, they've finally stopped building, but it looks like there are some empty spaces that "someday" will be more of the "building sets".
From last thread on the TravelCenters America numbers:
...........................................................2009 vs........2008 vs
...........................................................2008.............2007
First quarter ended March 31...............-16.3%..........-12.9%
Second quarter ended June 30.............-10.7%..........-16.3%
Third quarter ended September 30.........-3.6%..........-17.2%
Fourth quarter ended December 31..........N/A ...........-13.8%
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 4:36 pm
I truly think saving the existing financial system was a big mistake. There should have been shared suffering. As it is, we will have an enriched and empowered a financial over-class that will rule for at least a generation.
Angry - That was the goal of the global capitalist financiers all along. They just seized the opportunity when it arose, and short of revolution (good luck) and dropping out (instantly joining the underclass) there is little we can do at this point. We just get the misfortune of having to watch it from a time-delayed perspective, since we only get to see the effects after they happen and are not privy to the planning stages.
Personally, I think 1Q10 will be the bottom in CRE in most areas, but that's just a guess.
A lot of small businesses, especially retail, are gonna be wiped out this xmas. It will take until spring for many of them to close up shop. No way to accurately determine cash flow until survivors are identified.
Smart businessmen are already planning on how to game this new system without actually hiring more people.
I'm going to hire a hot maid. A hot gardener. A hot cook. And a hot dog walker. And the gov't will pay for it all. Still won't help fill empty industrial buildings and offices in CRE land.
google trend for 'layoffs', aside: one person was confused last night and didn't realize google does not in fact have a time machine so I thought I should mention that just in case everyone doesn't have the same level of supergeniousness
I don't know what can replace something of that cultural magnitude.
Cultural magnitude is irrelevant, tragic but irrelevant. The educated people who perceive themselves to be stakeholders required to run a successful complex society, now that is a thing you will miss.
People turning themselves into larger and larger clumps of capital do not get more and more competent during the process. You won't be the only person who misses the middle class.
Dude! I'm really starting to like this socialist stuff... I'm gonna have to clear this with the spouse, but I'm thinkin if I pitch it as my patriotic obligation to reduce unemployment, there might be a chance.
The wife and I are planning a nice extended weekend for our upcoming anniversary (the big number 5!). We have been looking at online reviews for all of these highly-rated resorts in Florida and the Caribbean and have noticed that a lot of negative reviews started showing up late last year with a lot of "I've been coming here for X years but never again!"
It looks like most of these resorts follow the condo/hotel or timeshare business model. Think cratering RevPAR and CRE values are the cause for the sudden drop in service? Can't afford to keep stuff nice and clean or keep the food as tasty as before?
There are ways to quickly get rid of the the over supply of hotel rooms:
The Executive Inn stood for 32 years, and in four seconds, came crashing to the ground.
Demolition crews spent the last two weeks gutting the bottom floor of the hotel, getting ready for implosion.
The blasters were all smiles after the iconic hotel came down.
"Things went awesome," project manager Steve Murray said. "When you start hearing the bangs go off and you see the building rumbling and then you see the failure like you did, it's great."
"It was perfect conditions," Lisa Kelly with Advanced Explosives Demolition said. "Obviously it would have been nice if the elevator tower would come down but for the most part the rest of this is exactly what we were hoping for."
Can't afford to keep stuff nice and clean or keep the food as tasty as before?
Just drink a lot and spend alot of time in your room with the "Do not disturb" sign on your door and it won't really matter. In fact, I recommend the Super 8 in Peoria.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner declares the dominant public policy imperative motivating reform as "to address the moral hazard risk created by what we did, what we had to do in the crisis to save the economy". Yet there is little evidence that moral hazard is being reduced or the economy is being saved. What has been saved is the elite segment of the banking and financial industry at the expense of the long-term health of the economy, while moral hazard is now the accepted operating mode for super banks.
Latest FDIC data reveal that the new super banks now can borrow more cheaply than their smaller peers because creditors assume these large institutions to be fail-safe. This trend will leave the financial market dominated by a gigantic trust of interlocking super banks.
Here's the part I thought was important - just cuz it put some numbers behind "extend and pretend":
"“The proportion of distressed sales is growing,” he said.
The big unknown is the overhang of commercial mortgages coming due in the next few years.
Lower property values, combined with stricter loan-to-value ratios by lenders, will make refinancing difficult.
More than half the $1.4 trillion in commercial mortgages coming due in the next five years are underwater, said Matthew Anderson, a partner at Foresight Analytics LLC, a real estate research firm.
That means those loans finance property that is worth less than the amount of debt.
About $250 billion of commercial mortgages mature this year, $270 billion comes due next year, and $300 billion rolls over in 2011, Mr. Anderson said.
“We're going to see mushrooming demand for mortgage credit at a time when we don't think values will be rising,” he said.
Banks have been extending terms on performing loans. More than half the loans that were up this year were simply extended by the lenders, Mr. Anderson said.
it's one of those trendy things, like the 'h' in ehp is silent, it is pronounced épée like the sword I carry around because it is so chic to dress like a capital pirate (pronounced pee-raht)
Byzantine_Ruins (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 4:47 pm
The educated people who perceive themselves to be stakeholders required to run a successful complex society, now that is a thing you will miss. People turning themselves into larger and larger clumps of capital do not get more and more competent during the process.
+1 Can't upvote that comment enough. But hey, the ruling caste all graduated from elite programs at elite schools worked on cutting-edge projects, and got top grades, so I'm sure they'll do just fine managing society on their own.
Yet there is little evidence that moral hazard is being reduced or the economy is being saved. What has been saved is the elite segment of the banking and financial industry at the expense of the long-term health of the economy, while moral hazard is now the accepted operating mode for super banks.
I don't think everybody here comprehends the amount of overbuilding in CRE plus the costs of recent construction at the top versus the negative returns on current and falling rents plus everything else...
I agree - the only good case to be made for CRE is in specific cases where you know the market & the property and even conservative numbers pencil out and lastly you have sufficient reserves and not too much leverage so as to weather the storm... and that is what percentage of the market? Can't be big.
while moral hazard is now the accepted operating mode for super banks.
This asia times sounds like one of them commie newspapers spreadin lies about Merican capitalism and causing class-warfare. What does Faux News say about large to-big-to-fail corporations? That's all that matters to me!
NARM, yes to build another smaller one along with a river wall. The city bought it and paid for it to be demolished but got a little help from The Learning Channel because they wanted to film it.
right on cue, Bombardier eyes more plane output cuts - The Globe and Mail
Same with plants in Wichita - schedules crashing. Aerospace is now where automotive was in 2007. Long leadtimes tend to do that to you. Late to the party - late to the puke after party.
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 4:55 pm
it's one of those trendy things, like the 'h' in ehp is silent, it is pronounced épée like the sword I carry around because it is so chic to dress like a capital pirate (pronounced pee-raht)
... and sounds remarkably like the 'e-p' in "e-penis"?
how about the bank gives you a very cheap loan to a single-purpose corporation with no additional collateral
the bank takes a small writedown, you get a call option for offering to manage the asset
at least that's what all the adults do
There is a jaw-dropping one-sentence statement in today's NY Times. Its in an article about how Iran is thumbing its nose at the rest of the world in regard to the "agreement" to ship out its nuclear material.
"Officials in Israel, which feels the most threatened by Iran, have hinted that if Iran does not accept the Geneva deal they will revive their consideration of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Mr. Obama’s own aides say they cannot determine whether the Israelis are bluffing."
The sentence is the one that starts "Mr. Obama..."
YOU GOTTA BE KIDDING ME. Either the writer of this article is passing pure bunk from the Obama Administration. Or what in the hell have several years of intelligence-gathering, military cooperation and diplomacy achieved? Wasn't it only about a year ago that the U.S. Air Force was involved in joint exercises with Israel, with Iran as the potential target?
The President of the US doesn't know whether or not Israel is bluffing??
lawyerliz
she just skipping along and i agree lots of water. she might just be tropical storm,but she only needs 4 more miles til she s a hurricane again. she needs to be watched very carefully her pressure went down 1 again.
ill be glad when she is gone dont trust her.
It looks like most of these resorts follow the condo/hotel or timeshare business model. Think cratering RevPAR and CRE values are the cause for the sudden drop in service? Can't afford to keep stuff nice and clean or keep the food as tasty as before?
The President of the US doesn't know whether or not Israel is bluffing??
Not when the Iranians can read the NYT like anyone else he doesn't. Benjamin is a madman with a pistol or you are doing it wrong. Iran has their own, or haven't you noticed how Venezuela is mobilizing to attack Columbia, just in case we decide to get tangled up in Iran?
Lets see. If you are under 30 you won't have a job that pays anything.
If you are over 50 you probably cost too much and will be gone
If you are retired - what you have is all you have to eke your long lived existence on.
Just drink a lot and spend alot of time in your room with the "Do not disturb" sign on your door and it won't really matter. In fact, I recommend the Super 8 in Peoria.
LOL - been there. Personally they can do better for just as cheap - I'd check out Dubuque.
Even Starwood which did the big takeover recently has gone supercheap. $s/minute for local calls, shift the items in the minibar and instant bill to your room, $20/day to use the gym, .... but the 40" flatscreen TV is free to use for now. Those are priorities
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 5:11 pm
Lets see. If you are under 30 you won't have a job that pays anything.
If you are over 50 you probably cost too much and will be gone
If you are retired - what you have is all you have to eke your long lived existence on.
When someone asks me if I'm bluffing at the poker table, I might say, "I don't know". Sometimes it's a true statement, as I might be bluffing with the best hand. Other times it's an obvious way of saying I ain't saying--don't ask such a stupid question.
Six House members urged Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in a Nov. 5 letter to oppose the sale[of Fannie Mae's tax credits], saying it would be “extremely lucrative for Goldman, minimally helpful to Fannie and extremely harmful to the U.S. taxpayers.”
“Goldman’s record profits this year -- they are on track to award $23 billion in bonus compensation -- suggest the taxpayers have a better use and greater claim on these funds than a private, highly profitable investment bank,” the lawmakers said in the letter sent by Representative Peter Welch, a Vermont Democrat.
That Geithner took more than 30 seconds to reject this deal shows how clueless the idiot is.
how about the bank gives you a very cheap loan to a single-purpose corporation with no additional collateral
the bank takes a small writedown, you get a call option for offering to manage the asset
at least that's what all the adults do
Free money changes everything... hard to put that into the biz plan though... 'a miracle occurs here' line item usually doesn't cut it.
Six House members urged Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in a Nov. 5 letter to oppose the sale [of Fannie Mae's tax credits], saying it would be “extremely lucrative for Goldman ... and extremely harmful to the U.S. taxpayers."
As opposed to every other action the Treasury has taken this decade?
That's the only thing that'll push up interest rates. Pushy external creditors kicking at dollar-printing games that sacrifice the currency to control federal borrowing rates. I'll believe it when I see it, though. It's inevitable, but talk is cheap. When they stop coming to Treasuries auctions, then that will make my ears perk.
Aerospace is now where automotive was in 2007. Long leadtimes tend to do that to you. Late to the party - late to the puke after party.
Thus my otherwise inexplicable patience waiting for an entry point. The untold hundreds of billions in nexgen manufacturing is going to change hands under Obama in numbers that will erase the stain of Carter.
The President of the US doesn't know whether or not Israel is bluffing??
Incredible.
I know more than a few Israeli's in the biz [own defense hardware companies] - will be meeting one next week for a joint plant visit [pursuing non-military work here]... my guess without talking to him is this is the geo-political equivalent 'don't ask - don't tell'... while playing good cop - bad cop at the same time.
If I was the imperial masters I'd be doing the same thing. Let the minions do the dirty work while the lord washes his hands.
the only thing that will push the Chinese populace over the edge are any further hits to exports
it may be a sinking boat, but it still beats trying to swim to the nearest piece of land on the horizon
Within 20 minutes Coventry had been abandoned and had completely capsized. 19 of her crew were lost and a further 30 injured. Coventry sank shortly after.[5] After the ship was struck, her crew, waiting to be rescued, sang "Always Look on the Bright Side of Life" from Monty Python's Life of Brian
Have spent some time looking at the Personal Income data from the BEA. I feel a whole lot better because it was driving me crazy to figure out where the spending was coming given the big declines in employment and the shutting down of the ATM window. It also makes the road ahead so much clearer.
Firstly, contrary to my starting assumption disposable personal income has not in fact decreased but is up 0.75% from the fourth quarter of last year thanks to a big cut in taxes and increase government transfer payments up 12% from the fourth quarter. Interestingly if one adds back unemployment benefits to total compensation received by employees the aggregate would be higher than what it was in the fourth quarter. (slightly lower if one excluded government employees whose aggregate income went up). In short more income from 4th quarter 2008 more spending with a declining savings rate.
However, looking at those numbers the future vulnerability becomes evident.
Interest received was only down about 4.5% during that period- my guess is 2010 is when the full brunt of the Feds low interest rate policy will begin to bite.as peoples CD's and other fixed investments mature and are replaced at much lower rates. A 10% decline in interest received will be equal to about half the decline in private sector wages we have seen since 2008 i.e about half the effect of the increased unemployment.
Social security payments whose contribution was almost equal to the increase in disposable income will not be making any contribution this year. Net of increased medicaire payments it will actually be a negative.
I suspect that private sector wages were boosted this year by a (a) the higher inflation rate in 2008 which probably resulted in higher COLA this year (b) severance packages for employees who were laid off. None of those factors will be at play in 2010. So I think wage income will have a tough time maintaining its current level even with no further unemployment.
Lastly, government employees held up personal income in 2009. I don/'t think that will be happening in 2010.
My net conclusion- if credit conditions are still getting tighter the notion of a job less recovery for 2010 is just mathematically impossible. Unless we start getting a creation of net new jobs soon I think that we will be about set for the next down leg in consumer spending and everything that entails.
Thus my otherwise inexplicable patience waiting for an entry point. The untold hundreds of billions in nexgen manufacturing is going to change hands under Obama in numbers that will erase the stain of Carter.
The Bush I 'peace dividend' already beat out the Carter event - the question is will this extinction event be the biggest yet? Bigger than early 90s? Could be.
Also I see no blame for Obama [Bush I, Bush II or Clinton] in any of this - I deal w/ the folks in Wichita enough to see that they made their own bed without any real help from the gubbmint... offshoring, outsourcing core competencies - even trying to split the production from development via 'platforming' [Spirit Aerospace is to Boeing what Delphi is to GM - we all know how well that worked out].
This is a case just like automotive where mgmt decided they'd rather make deals than make product... rather cut ribbon w/ chainsaws than cut metal chips in factories. It was doomed from the start - late 90's & early 00's.
Platform capitalists should be second to the gulags only after the bankers.
the only thing that will push the Chinese populace over the edge
It is interesting that the Indian Prime Minister has declared that the government will be withdrawing the fiscal stimulus in 2010 the first G-20 country to do so. But what is more interesting is that he has said that he expects demand from the developed countries to remain weak and Indian growth will have to based on strong internal demand. I have no doubt that the Chinese have come to the same conclusion with regard to their own economy. Their challenge is how to let go of the tigers tail. I suspect that their stock piling of commodities particularly food grains is a prelude to that. I think they can buy themselves time vis a vis civil unrest as they re-orient their economy as long as they can keep people fed.
MBA's? An MBA is just another secret hand-shake thing. Besides, it was the physicists that created the financial models that the MBA's were using to "price" risk and assets. The only safety we have against the smart amoral scumbags is to make sure they are spread out (not concentrated in place).
Not one comment about the Iran/Israel post has been on target. It's not about bluffing. Israel can bluff Iran all they want.
But if Israel has cut the President of the U.S. off from its intelligence and military planning, then we are in real trouble, and you have to wonder why we would ever stand up for them again. There's almost no chance that has happened. So, what's this about?
The first seed of plausible deny-ability by Obama.
The Bush I 'peace dividend' already beat out the Carter event - the question is will this extinction event be the biggest yet? Bigger than early 90s? Could be.
Mixed response. Yes "success" of "winning" the "cold war" resulted in massive reallocation of productive assets but that was classic old economy stuff. We knew that was going to happen just like the 700 ship Navy was a target not a necessity. I don'y Blame Reagan/ush I/Clinton or Bush II for any of that. No, I'm talking about gutting the military for "other" priorities nd in that I am beginning to suspect Obama could exceed Carter.
Like Byz reminds us I am ready to open two lines of the A-4g with modern avionics in export air defense and California Special trim for our best friends.
if Israel has cut the President of the U.S. off from its intelligence and military planning,
I try to stay out of this nonsense but this one is just too over the top. 30 seconds after Israel cuts us out of their intel feed we mention this to Egypt and ask them what they think and if any of their friends have anything to add.
re: ERTS
apparently they announced another 1,500 job cuts
from 10,000 down to 7,500 employees in less than a year (are they still doing the 80hr per week minimum crunch months?)
I would like to add that if the stock market were in any way sane, a report in the NY Times stating that Israel may be planning an attack on Iran, but the President of the U.S. has no clue whether or not Israel is bluffing, would give experienced, sober investors serious pause.
But that did not happen. So, it tells you the market is totally insane and due for a serious fall.
Welfare for the heroic companies building all of this glorious nation's weapons (and really cool airplanes). Which creates jobs, and freedom, and research, and freedom - none of which could be accomplished by the invisible hand of the market place (for reasons only liberatarians understand).
Elvis, I always like to ask if people are bluffing, and I occaisionally show my hole cards to the table. When you play tournaments, you have to keep 'em guessing always. If you play a consistent style, you get figured out and pigeonholed. That said, straight gambling with real money on the table is much tighter, and calling stations get blown out much faster, but with limits rising every 15 minutes, ya gotta act, and bluff, and fold.
The funny thing is, in my mind tournament poker is a lot more fun, but less profitable. Regular poker is just like going to work, profitable, but boring- it only gets highly profitable if you have a lot of rich drunks- something I have not seen very much of over the last few years.
As for Israel, it ain't no bluff. They can, and will deliver as much ordinance as necessary to do the job. They really have no choice.
I would guess that is why the price of oil has kept on climbing, should the Iranians blink and cut a deal, oil plummets.
Too many balls in the air, somebody is going to drop one- I would wonder why there is no wikipedia entry on Francop or Visia and take that with a very interesting grain of salt.
Rob Dawg- what in your opinion is the biggest security threat to the United States and its citizens-not to US financial interests unless you believe those to be the same.
I suspect that private sector wages were boosted this year by a (a) the higher inflation rate in 2008 which probably resulted in higher COLA this year (b) severance packages for employees who were laid off. None of those factors will be at play in 2010. So I think wage income will have a tough time maintaining its current level even with no further unemployment.
Which NIPA tables are you looking at? I am not seeing any year over year improvement in private wages, in fact quite the opposite - the decline in private sector wages has accelerated into the third quarter of this year on a year over year basis: energyecon: Personal Income: Private Wages Year Over Year Change
I try to stay out of this nonsense but this one is just too over the top. 30 seconds after Israel cuts us out of their intel feed we mention this to Egypt and ask them what they think and if any of their friends have anything to add.
Perhaps we should limit the total number of MBAs granted, or
require they get a science degree first.
Funny story. This was mid80s 'rust belt part one'... was with a guy at a cafe in Sleepyeye MN. We had just went into a call a few miles farther down the road and I was getting him a late breakfast before a mad dash to the airport 2-3 hours away. There was no fast food in that town back then so stopped at a country cafe.
We ordered HUGE breakfasts - eggs, juice, coffee, hashbrowns, toast, ham [real ham - not the fake stuff]... our plates overflowed. We ate & talked - being the only two people in the cafe NOT wearing overalls & seed caps [we wore suits - that was the custom then].
The bill came & my buddy took it and gasped. I looked at him and snatched it from his hand thinking the locals [whom I knew] were sticking it to him because he was a big city slicker in a suit... wasn't the case. Both meals combined came to less than $6 tip included. I asked him 'what's the problem... why the big gasp'?
He said 'it's so cheap - there has to be something wrong?' I said 'why'?... he went on to a long lecture of pricing and value and blah blah... he had an MBA. I told him to pay and let's get going... outside I showed him the cafe next door. Turns out there were two almost identical cafes on the same block - both about equally full of farmers. I told my buddy that if either of them raised the price of coffee by one nickle - the farmers would all stand up and walk out in unison & go next door.
His reply was why didn't they just agree to both raise prices together? I said - they could - but do you really think Olsen would trust Schultz [the two cafe owners] to keep a deal? He'd secretly cut price to his 'favored' customers. Before you know it there'd be another price war over coffee so why waste time. Besides they both think the other guy is going broke any day now the way they 'give it away'...
My buddy said - this is something they talked about in his MBA classes but never really thought it happened - we both agreed maybe Harvard & Wharton are sending their kids to intern at the wrong places. Need to wait tables in Sleepyeye.
Rob Dawg- what in your opinion is the biggest security threat to the United States and its citizens-
not Rob Dawg, but I would say the United States itself. A lot of people standing around asking where the last X years of their work went, and why the plates of someone among their family/friends are empty today
The first seed of plausible deny-ability by Obama.
That is the washing hands part rich... also Israel might very well NOT tell us. We might say 'no'. That would be awkward if they really plan to do it anyway. Better to just do it and then later try the awe shucks apology afterward.
I would like to add that if the stock market were in any way sane,
I think the market behavior is perfectly sane and rational and I am surprised that so many are baffled by it. Fund managers have to be long or in cash. Cash yields nothing literally. Hard to get people to pay you management fee for producing zero return. Therefore you buy , hope that all your other buddies figure out the same thing, hope to sucker some more people in or squeeze the shorts who believe in that quaint notion of fundamentals get a good mark at the end of the year and collect your bonus.
If the market blows up following that and you lose your job - you would have lost it staying in cash so you have your bonus but lost your job better than losing your job and no bonus. Plus if the game gets stretched out another year yet another bonus. What is not sane or rational about that behavior. I think so many of you are confused because you believe that there is honor and morality and doing the right thing. Much better to adopt Seneca's stoic philosophy of expecting the worst and surprises can only be pleasant.
The Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS has been publishing distressed sales data for nearly 2 years now and just recently have been able to go back and differentiate short sales and REOs back 3+ years.
I am not seeing any year over year improvement in private wages
didn't say there was a increase in private wages- there was an increase disposable income. Private wages are down but over all disposable income is up because increased government wages and transfer payments. The BEA has an Excel table with all the data.
I bet they didn't cover planning for 20% cuts in dividend income at the retirement seminar St. Louis Fed: Series: PDI, Personal Dividend Income
(disclaimer: the St Louis Fed cut off their gray recession bars at July 2009 without explanation provided for the breach of written protocol)
Rob Dawg- what in your opinion is the biggest security threat to the United States and its citizens-not to US financial interests unless you believe those to be the same.
Asymmetric information flow.
That sounds like a simplistic or weird cop-out but it is a real and present danger. We've allowed, even encouraged other societies to freely take advantage of our national constructs. In some cases like Japan the benefits were two way and the synergies exceeded the costs. Then we get $2 DVDs in China, free Windows 7, substandard bolts on aircraft and global air pollution on the west coast of the US.
And in the reverse direction? What reverse direction? See? Asymmetric.
edit: gack, I honestly am not sure what if any debt servicing subtracts from disposable income. might just be after tax, but I would think mortgage payments are considered special/steady
[don't forget defaults and delinquencies]
but I would say the United States itself. A lot of people standing around asking where the last X years of their work went, and why the plates of someone among their family/friends are empty today
Fair enough - but if that is the case why do we need to spend 50% of the global spending on the military? While one argue whether Carter hollowed the military the threats facing us are completely different.
Justasking asked on the last thread how much in a storage unit is dumpster trash. obviously it depends on each unit, however I have a self-employed friend, a painter, and when things are slow paint wise he and a friend purchase delinquent storage units and sell the stuff. He is amazed that people actually go through the trouble to rent a storage unit. he estimates 75 percent is junk.
Again my earlier response to Evil Paulson stands - neither yours nor his response would have been the same in the late 70's early 80s. Our security threats are completely different yet we still think of the defense budget in the same sacrosanct manner. Just read Discover magazine - they had an interesting foot note . The military conducted an exercise to defend against cyber war and required everybody to be dressed in combat fatigues- Discovers comment - they missed the point.
Fair enough - but if that is the case why do we need to spend 50% of the global spending on the military? While one argue whether Carter hollowed the military the threats facing us are completely different.
The United States is the world's largest arms exporter fwiw
Asymmetric information flow.
That sounds like a simplistic or weird cop-out but it is a real and present danger. We've allowed, even encouraged other societies to freely take advantage of our national constructs. In some cases like Japan the benefits were two way and the synergies exceeded the costs. Then we get $2 DVDs in China, free Windows 7, substandard bolts on aircraft and global air pollution on the west coast of the US. And in the reverse direction? What reverse direction? See? Asymmetric.
Ummmmmm, they buy our coupons for houses and taxes? And pass on those coupons to the oil and ore extractors? Starts to giggle uncontrolably!
His reply was why didn't they just agree to both raise prices together? I said - they could - but do you really think Olsen would trust Schultz
Old Man Shultz? With the twins who won the Miss Nordern Minesodah Dairy cow milking contest? Small world dontcha know. Jeez, dey were a hadful fer shure. Four handfuls if ya know vhat I mean.
Seriously, the US went from hick to king so fast we never learned the value of the middle. Looks like we are going to go back and repeat 7th grade.
Energycon- I don't want to get into an English language class but boosted doesn't imply that the final number was higher than some previous number only that the final number would have been lower but for the factors cited..
Actually defense spending increased under Carter is memory serves me right and many of the "new weapon systems" that are credited to Reagan began during the Carter administration. But never let facts get in the way of a good fairy tale.
I have come to the conclusion that Rob Dawg is a team of bots. Nobody could sit here day after day, year after year, and post as frequently, on so many varied subjects.
Distressed Sales: Sacramento as Example
Distressed Sales: Sacramento as Poster Child
There. Fixed that for ya.
This is a local market still in distress. - CR
This is a leading indicator local market entering a second leg down.
Pigged...
'Messianic nonsense' is a distraction to what's going on (or going down)...
Blackhalo, RiF,
Left a reply on the last thread, well after the
shill, re: Electronic Arts
if you go to https://jobs.ea.com/jobs/viewjobs.aspx and painstakingly click off every box and 'OR' to see the entire hiring for the $6.32bn market cap, $4.2bn revenue, ~9000 employee company, has ZERO openings of any kind posted
and their industry has fared better than most
watching the equities markets is like sitting slack-jawed watching a train wreck in super-slo-mo as the conductor pushes the accelerator to FULL FORWARD. Amazing.
This 'suckers' going down (anyway)...regardless of TARP and all the rest of the 'stimulus'...get ready...for the bust part of the boom...thanks to trusty econ and monetary policies in the public interest...
has ZERO openings of any kind posted
Who cares, INDU +200!!!!
sportsfan wrote:
This sentence is a good summary for the actions of the Fed and TPTB too. What else would they do but what they are doing now.
NotReal,
So, are you in the mad max camp and therefore it doesn't matter who does what?
Sorry for the thread jack but the OMB director Orszag made an interesting point last week that I haven't seen covered.
"One recent study, for example, found that graduating during a period of high unemployment leads to depressed initial wages–-roughly 6 percent on average for every one percentage point increase in unemployment. This negative wage effect declines only slowly over time: to 5 percent after five years, 4 percent after 10 years, and 3 percent even 15 years after graduation.
Remember, that’s for each percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. When most of today’s seniors entered NYU, the unemployment rate was about 5 percentage points lower than it is today.
You can do the math.
Another way of looking at it: when one compares the wages earned by the class of 1982 (a peak unemployment year) with the wages of the class of 1988 (a peak employment year) over the first 20 years of a career, the difference – on a net present value basis – averages $100,000."
Speech
Mixed signals on commercial property - Investment News
Stock market summary: "Here. Hold my beer and watch this!"
"Here. Hold my beer and watch this!"
LMFAO. +1,000
Just got the word - several friends of mine were laid off today from a real estate/building industry association in DC. Much of its budget comes from membership dues, which are obviously down given the current state of the construction industry as a whole. Cause and effect.
update: apparently EA had over 10,000 employees at year end last year. down to 9,000 by March, and sounds like they might let another 1000 go by year end. 20% headcount cut. zero churn.
Correction to my comment in the last thread: looks like we're going to top Friday's volume after all, but we're still significantly lower than the 13 prior trading days.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Sprint Nextel dumping 2500 bodies overboard before EOY.
Test of Jim Rogers knowledge of 'economics'...
'Governments are printing huge amounts of money.' - Jim Rogers (Wall St. Cheat Sheet)
(The independent central banks -such as the Federal Reserve- are digitally 'printing' huge amounts of money...)
Rob Dawg wrote:
Ouch, not liking this close one bit. Looks like I have to get up early tomorrow for open. Too much noise.
sportsfan wrote:
Not exactly. I assuming the Ben's of world (TPTB) know they've got two choices. A total-all-in-bet to preserve the top 1%'s assets (and way of life) -OR- a severe economic hit (maybe even a collapse) to the top 1% that isn't politically possible. So, they (TPTB) are doing exactly what they should be doing.
I’m assuming we’ll end-up in a less-than mad-max situation for the peasants.
I just wanted to add regarding the financing of offers it appears that 7 out of 10 homes are being bought cash and conventional. I would say that most cash or conventional are investors. According to this it appears that FHA buyers are getting marginalized. It seems like the reverse is true when it comes to offers on properties, like 7 out of 10 offers are FHA.
sportsfan (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 3:48 pm
Blackhalo, RiF,
Left a reply on the last thread, well after the
or no 
immanent on the horizon.
I agree. It is actually a positive sign that lenders are looking through a loss mitigation standpoint. Soon enough so will the rest of the country,
Online auction site launches for rich and famous
| Reuters
S&P still costs less than an ounce of the shiny.
Brazil going into turbobubble mode.
I love when high profile observers say or imply that the 'independent' central bank is the government...
dum luk wrote:
“But it won't be this crescendo of property dumped on the market like the early 1990s,” when Resolution Trust Corp. forced savings institutions to dispose of failed property, said David Lynn, managing director of research and investment strategy for ING Clarion Partners LLC, which manages about $40 billion in commercial real estate. “There won't be fire sale prices, because everyone is ready for it,” he said.
Trying to ease his angry investors...Lies only make it worse when it happens, Mr. Lynn. The commercial dumping will be spectacular. You know it.
merchants of fear wrote:
Your left foot called - wants to know if your right foot wants to go jogging...
I don't see an end or a solution to CA's ills.
They have had population and jobs leave the state, so the housing is going to be a long term issue that isn't easily solved.
The weather in TX can't compare, but the taxes in CA make it worth the exodus for companies.
Time did an article about Detroit housing, and had an interesting graph about peak population, interestingly enough I believe both San Diego and Dallas (Dallas proper, not suburbs) had peak population decades ago, but nowhere near as far back as Detroit which I believe peaked in the 60's.
donut cities for everyone...
sm_landlord,
No...the left foot just got cut off...
CaptainMorgan wrote:
Three or four new states.
re: CR's post
as a reminder, REO and other distressed sales are not counted by Case-Shiller or the FHFA HPI among other exclusions (rightly so mind you, but it's important to keep it in mind at this time)
Great article, dum luk, thanks for the link.
CR had blog posts on both the Moody's and the MIT Index reports when they were released, but this article contrasts the two and brings in additional facts and opinions going both ways with regard to the near term future of CRE.
My impression is that there is more fresh money chasing distressed CRE than there is fresh CRE coming available. That may be precisely why prices are showing a nearly 12% jump in the potential prices at which buyers are willing to trade.
There's a lot of competition at the lowball level.
Sorry if this doesn't fit with the prevailing doom and gloom.
"Buy this empty office buiding for only 60% of what we paid for it! Who cares if cap rates have tripled since then, our building is now only half full from 94%, and our remaining tenants pay 60% of the rent that they were when we bought the building. 40% is a deal, baby! You don't get deals like this everyday!"
The central bankers and economists have screwed the situation up so badly now with their inflationary policies I think they know that it's inevitable that they get tarred and feathered, so they're just going to keep printing and spending as long as they can to hold off judgment day even if the coming collapse is getting bigger and bigger every day.
The bubbles will continue until the monetary and political systems creating them collapse.
More and more that collapse looks inevitable.
sm_landlord wrote:
Na. Already taken care of. We're the Greece of Merica. Fine with me. The weather is great, so is the food and wine.
re: CR's post
as a reminder, REO and other distressed sales are not counted by Case-Shiller or the FHFA HPI
"In the quarter, 21,298 homes sold in the Chicago metropolitan statistical area (MSA), up 2.4% from 20,802 in Q308. The median sales price for the Chicago area was $205,000, down 16.3% from $244,900 in Q308. The MSA includes Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties."
Illinois Home Sales Post First Increase in Three Years : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
sportsfan wrote:
Yes, but the flood hasn't started. Cup fulls of property now versus rivers in the mid term. Won't be any fresh money left. Buy early and die.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
As am I. The difference, perhaps, in our views, is that I don't believe the top 1% (or even 5%) will be affected at all, no matter what happens short of mad max. They will still be the uberwealthy and thus the most powerful group.
sportsfan wrote:
Yes, I agree. TPTB are working diligently to ensure it.
CR, your pie chart percentages don't work.
(Then again, who doesn't like pie?)
sportsfan - The true beginning of two-tiered economic life. Either you are in the speculative economy floating on capital, or you are a serf toiling in the real one.
sm_landlord wrote:
Well eight actually but you had better get your act together and relocate before we Venturans dynamite Mugu Rock* and barricade the 101 and 118. Don't say I didn't warn you.
I met a man who had given himself a spinal cord injury headbutting a truck.
Now for something somewhatly different
H Liu
Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Yeah. This is what I find disgusting (when I'm thinking like a moral person, which I try not to do).
Sacto RE may be distressed, but the prices don't reflect it. Prices have plateau-ed at about 33% from peak and need to correct another 20% or more to reach any kind of fair valuation.
Some properties have been marked UP 20% since summer.
Go figure.
umop apisdn wrote:
3.4% of sales are unconventional short REO sales.
Citicards loves to communicate with its cardholders.
They upped my rate to 16% several months back. They upped a lot of people to 30% recently. I also recently got a "preapproved" offer for a 0% rate for a year on purchases and balance transfers.
And now they sent me a communique that my rate is being upped again, to 20%, but if I balance transfer $3K in the next month, my rate will drop to 10% until January 1, 2011.
I get the feeling Citicards just can't make up their minds. And i sense a certain level of panic, running from one customer to the next, trying to sniff out which ones will default and which ones are safe bets.
Good luck with that.
Another small deal bites the dust. Short sale.
Bank won't authorize lower price; other bank won't raise the
amount loaned. Appraiser won't budge.
FHA.
RE broker who is getting a small loan herself to buy a 48k
property (in Miami-Dade) sez you can get a conventional loan
with 25% down.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Yeah, those 18th century waste disposal systems are pretty embarrassing.
Elvis wrote:
That is the doom perspective. Not everyone sees it that way. Personally, I think 1Q10 will be the bottom in CRE in most areas, but that's just a guess. The safe move is to buy low enough to underbid the competition for tenants and thus to lock in a profit potential in any worst case scenario short of mad max.
If it all falls down, nothing to do with 'profit' will matter much anyway.
tg,
Thanks. From the aricle:
"JP Morgan Chase is reportedly holding more than $1 of every $10 on deposit in the US. The four biggest super banks (JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citibank) now issue one of every two mortgages and about two of every three credit cards in the US. Since the financial crisis, these four super banks are each allowed to hold more than 10% of the nation's deposits, having been exempted from a longstanding rule barring such market dominance. In several metropolitan regions, these new super banks are now permitted to take market share beyond what the Department of Justice's anti-trust guidelines previously allowed. "
Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs
sportsfan wrote:
No, that is the fundamental perspective.
RE: ERTS - Ricietello's deal with Elevation Partners was some of the most blatant self-dealing every witnessed in corporate America, IMO. Not incidental that the company's market cap is around a third of when that happened. The entire corporate culture there was always based around stock options and never around actual profits and certainly not innovation, which they have avoided like the plague for about a decade now.
NaRm - I can understand that. It would break your heart if you had one and considered "those people" to be people. It would also occur to you that keeping your speculative economy afloat was only possible because you were robbing the real one either now or with future obligations. Luckily as a noble smart amoral-scumbag, you don't feel a thing.
I hope for an unintentional alternative but then again I am an optimist.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
RiF, one of the great tragedies of this decade has been (and/or will be) the destruction of the American Middle Class.
I don't know what can replace something of that cultural magnitude.
sportsfan wrote:
Ever hear of tenants going broke and walking away from leases. You cannot lock-in profit. Dude.
Elvis wrote:
No reason to bring religion into this.
You cannot lock-in profit. Dude.
Unless you're
sm_landlord wrote:
The funny thing is those systems work better than fine as designed. Their "failure" is one of zoning. The sustainable density is far less than was shoehorned into the sub-region.
Elvis wrote:
Unconventional shorts: neither briefs nor boxers. Commando sales.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I'm not saying I agree with it morally. I'm saying it is the correct solution from the point of view of TPTB (the smart amoral scumbags). Like I said before, I'm an amoral scumbag (when I'm at my best) but not smart enough, so I'm going to get screwed too. But, I no longer hold it against the nobility. They are just doing what I'd do if I WERE smart enough.
Rob Dawg wrote:
As long as you have an account with the man who runs the honey wagon.
edit: lots of clay soil.
Elvis wrote:
There are no guarantees. All you can do is play the percentages.
The delude abides
Thanks for an interesting lunch, guys. Now, back to cleaning out the toilets.
Ida is moving pretty fast and I think Fla/Ala/Ga will have a heckuva
lot of rain dumped on them.
sportsfan wrote:
But when those competitors get beat by your lower capital requirements, they go BK and sell to someone else who will then have the lowest capital costs and under cut you. CRE is going to be a long, slow, deflation, barring a new bubble or hyper-inflation.
sportsfan (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 4:19 pm
RiF, one of the great tragedies of this decade has been (and/or will be) the destruction of the American Middle Class.
I don't know what can replace something of that cultural magnitude.
Nothing. We've always had the poor, and we've always had the nobility. Anything in between was made possible through the progress of civilization, and these gains will be erased at least for a while. It is not going to be pretty but the workings of the money power rarely are.
Strawberry! Hit the showers.
sportsfan wrote:
It's the percentage of doom verse non-doom. I'm still thinking there's a good percentage chance (less that 50% more than 30%) that TPTB will avoid a collapse. Never underestimate the stupidity of the peasants and in their ability to believe complete BS. All it will take is another tulip craze.
sf -- Not that life has to totally suck. There were good nobles just like there were good slaveowners. But it will be a 'service' economy, in the true sense of the word. The nobility can't run this complex nightmare on its own, plus doing work is uncool in the extreme for true nobility.
I don't think everybody here comprehends the amount of overbuilding in CRE plus the costs of recent construction at the top versus the negative returns on current and falling rents plus everything else...
We just need more buildings to fall over like that one
in China.
With a job loss recovery over than last 10+ years all new CRE construction is practically overbuilding...Think about that.
right on cue, More Bombardier job cuts possible, Beaudoin says - The Globe and Mail
Bombardier warning about more layoffs (4,440 this year laid off from 66,900 workforce)
I tried to warn crab-man summers that the stimulus wasn't enough
wait and see how the H2 recovery plays out is winding up
I truly think saving the existing financial system was a big mistake. There should have been shared suffering. As it is, we will have an enriched and empowered a financial over-class that will rule for at least a generation.
Too many people now realize that wealth is not earned but garnered through financial shams.
Very unstable.
raises hand slightly but remembers srs losses
(
MBIA loses $728 mln, hitting shares after hours - MarketWatch
With a job loss recovery over than last 10+ years all new CRE construction is practically overbuilding...Think about that.
That's why the next stimulus package will be to pay businesses to hire people.
Smart businessmen are already planning on how to game this new system without actually hiring more people.
Elvis wrote:
I know I don't comprehend it. But I do see, and drive thru occasionally, a brand new development behind my zombie office. There are at least 6 empty "building sets" (groups of small commercial spaces 4 - 6 building each, one and two story) that are empty. The oldest one has been empty sense it was built 2 years ago. They kept building. All empty. It's amazing. It appears, they've finally stopped building, but it looks like there are some empty spaces that "someday" will be more of the "building sets".
Angry Saver wrote:
No they don't. Most people have no idea what happened yet.
We are in the process of buying a place. We just got pre-approval from SunTrust. They would only do it at 20% down
From last thread on the TravelCenters America numbers:
...........................................................2009 vs........2008 vs
...........................................................2008.............2007
First quarter ended March 31...............-16.3%..........-12.9%
Second quarter ended June 30.............-10.7%..........-16.3%
Third quarter ended September 30.........-3.6%..........-17.2%
Fourth quarter ended December 31..........N/A ...........-13.8%
Has directive 10-289 been implemented yet? That must be the juice in the markets.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 4:36 pm
I truly think saving the existing financial system was a big mistake. There should have been shared suffering. As it is, we will have an enriched and empowered a financial over-class that will rule for at least a generation.
Angry - That was the goal of the global capitalist financiers all along. They just seized the opportunity when it arose, and short of revolution (good luck) and dropping out (instantly joining the underclass) there is little we can do at this point. We just get the misfortune of having to watch it from a time-delayed perspective, since we only get to see the effects after they happen and are not privy to the planning stages.
Personally, I think 1Q10 will be the bottom in CRE in most areas, but that's just a guess.
A lot of small businesses, especially retail, are gonna be wiped out this xmas. It will take until spring for many of them to close up shop. No way to accurately determine cash flow until survivors are identified.
ac wrote:
I'm going to hire a hot maid. A hot gardener. A hot cook. And a hot dog walker. And the gov't will pay for it all. Still won't help fill empty industrial buildings and offices in CRE land.
Speed,
I think the big tomato has another wave down...income to home price ratio is still out of whack..with govt. hiring cut back...
Elvis wrote:
Hiring someone to walk your wieners? The very definition of decadence....
google trend for 'layoffs', aside: one person was confused last night and didn't realize google does not in fact have a time machine so I thought I should mention that just in case everyone doesn't have the same level of supergeniousness
I don't know what can replace something of that cultural magnitude.
Cultural magnitude is irrelevant, tragic but irrelevant. The educated people who perceive themselves to be stakeholders required to run a successful complex society, now that is a thing you will miss.
People turning themselves into larger and larger clumps of capital do not get more and more competent during the process. You won't be the only person who misses the middle class.
Elvis wrote:
Dude! I'm really starting to like this socialist stuff... I'm gonna have to clear this with the spouse, but I'm thinkin if I pitch it as my patriotic obligation to reduce unemployment, there might be a chance.
"I thought I should clarify just in case everyone doesn't have the same level of supergeniousness"
Superdisingenuosness?
Perhaps a bit OT but I've got to thinking...
The wife and I are planning a nice extended weekend for our upcoming anniversary (the big number 5!). We have been looking at online reviews for all of these highly-rated resorts in Florida and the Caribbean and have noticed that a lot of negative reviews started showing up late last year with a lot of "I've been coming here for X years but never again!"
It looks like most of these resorts follow the condo/hotel or timeshare business model. Think cratering RevPAR and CRE values are the cause for the sudden drop in service? Can't afford to keep stuff nice and clean or keep the food as tasty as before?
big tomato has another wave down
I hope so. There are plenty of first-time homebuyers out there with a free $8000 down-payment keeping realtors warm for the winter.
it's one level above supergenius-ness
There are ways to quickly get rid of the the over supply of hotel rooms:
The Executive Inn stood for 32 years, and in four seconds, came crashing to the ground.
Demolition crews spent the last two weeks gutting the bottom floor of the hotel, getting ready for implosion.
The blasters were all smiles after the iconic hotel came down.
"Things went awesome," project manager Steve Murray said. "When you start hearing the bangs go off and you see the building rumbling and then you see the failure like you did, it's great."
"It was perfect conditions," Lisa Kelly with Advanced Explosives Demolition said. "Obviously it would have been nice if the elevator tower would come down but for the most part the rest of this is exactly what we were hoping for."
Executive Inn, Owensboro, Kentucky
Chicago Dude wrote:
Just drink a lot and spend alot of time in your room with the "Do not disturb" sign on your door and it won't really matter. In fact, I recommend the Super 8 in Peoria.
"The educated people who perceive themselves to be stakeholders required to run a successful complex society, now that is a thing you will miss."
Yes!
"People turning themselves into larger and larger clumps of capital do not get more and more competent during the process."
Yes, again.
.
"You won't be the only person who misses the middle class."
Yes.
The engineers who run the power grid and the water system might be examples.
Good job ehp, I was going to point out that little oxymoronic bit.
kylo wrote:
Why did they knock it down? To put up another one?
Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Yeah, but this is long long term doom. More like science fiction doom, or global-warming oceans rising doom. You and I will be dead first.
Implosions and bulldozers.
Here's the part I thought was important - just cuz it put some numbers behind "extend and pretend":
"“The proportion of distressed sales is growing,” he said.
The big unknown is the overhang of commercial mortgages coming due in the next few years.
Lower property values, combined with stricter loan-to-value ratios by lenders, will make refinancing difficult.
More than half the $1.4 trillion in commercial mortgages coming due in the next five years are underwater, said Matthew Anderson, a partner at Foresight Analytics LLC, a real estate research firm.
That means those loans finance property that is worth less than the amount of debt.
About $250 billion of commercial mortgages mature this year, $270 billion comes due next year, and $300 billion rolls over in 2011, Mr. Anderson said.
“We're going to see mushrooming demand for mortgage credit at a time when we don't think values will be rising,” he said.
Banks have been extending terms on performing loans. More than half the loans that were up this year were simply extended by the lenders, Mr. Anderson said.
If lenders can stretch out the adjustment process, it is possible that they could end up with lower-than-expected defaults and loss rates, he said.
"
Mixed signals on commercial property - Investment News
it's one of those trendy things, like the 'h' in ehp is silent, it is pronounced épée like the sword I carry around because it is so chic to dress like a capital pirate (pronounced pee-raht)
Byzantine_Ruins (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 4:47 pm
The educated people who perceive themselves to be stakeholders required to run a successful complex society, now that is a thing you will miss. People turning themselves into larger and larger clumps of capital do not get more and more competent during the process.
+1 Can't upvote that comment enough. But hey, the ruling caste all graduated from elite programs at elite schools worked on cutting-edge projects, and got top grades, so I'm sure they'll do just fine managing society on their own.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Elvis wrote:
I agree - the only good case to be made for CRE is in specific cases where you know the market & the property and even conservative numbers pencil out and lastly you have sufficient reserves and not too much leverage so as to weather the storm... and that is what percentage of the market? Can't be big.
It is priority one that the weiner walker is hot.
No they don't. Most people have no idea what happened yet.
NaRm,
I didn't say most, I said too many.
energyecon wrote:
This asia times sounds like one of them commie newspapers spreadin lies about Merican capitalism and causing class-warfare. What does Faux News say about large to-big-to-fail corporations? That's all that matters to me!
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 5:53 pm
You and I will be dead first.
Pavel is kinda old! He might well be dead first. If you are not also older than 60, I would not put any bets down.
NARM, yes to build another smaller one along with a river wall. The city bought it and paid for it to be demolished but got a little help from The Learning Channel because they wanted to film it.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Same with plants in Wichita - schedules crashing. Aerospace is now where automotive was in 2007. Long leadtimes tend to do that to you. Late to the party - late to the puke after party.
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 4:55 pm
it's one of those trendy things, like the 'h' in ehp is silent, it is pronounced épée like the sword I carry around because it is so chic to dress like a capital pirate (pronounced pee-raht)
... and sounds remarkably like the 'e-p' in "e-penis"?
Quoted from the Asia Times linked above, but certainly my thoughts almost exactly.
I would have said, "little to no evidence..."
dryfly wrote:
Right. There are always small exceptions and small pockets of opportunity, but the overwhelming case is a spectacular bust.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Most people will never know unless it is a Showtime miniseries with lotsa skin [then they'll remember the skin].
how about the bank gives you a very cheap loan to a single-purpose corporation with no additional collateral
the bank takes a small writedown, you get a call option for offering to manage the asset
at least that's what all the adults do
Half wile e. coyote, supergenius, and half epee le peeuw.
So this means interest rates will be low for years to come?
Byzantine_Ruins wrote:
It will be a "squeaker" I'll move to slighter higher ground when I'm around 70, just in case.
So this means interest rates will be low for years to come?
Hu really knows?
nova wrote:
Forever and ever.
Unfortunately, the word supergenious is now already used to dillutement. I think the term now is infinityplusonesupergenious.
Mook (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 5:02 pm
So this means interest rates will be low for years to come?
Hu really knows?
The shadow (government and banking system) knows.
black dog wrote:
They aren't even waiting - two went down near me this week even before Black Friday... says they see no way Black Friday saves them.
nova wrote:
2030:
"Dad, what was an interest rate?"
"I have no idea son."
"Dad, who was Hank Paulson?"
"A son of a bitch who wrecked America."
So this means interest rates will be low for years to come?
Let's see, looking at Japan as an example, they will get rates up to 1% in 2012 and it will be blamed for smothering the recovery.
When do we get the trifecta - Dollar, Equities & Bonds all dropping together ??
Ot but interesting.
There is a jaw-dropping one-sentence statement in today's NY Times. Its in an article about how Iran is thumbing its nose at the rest of the world in regard to the "agreement" to ship out its nuclear material.
Iran Is Said to Have Ignored Obama's Attempts to Salvage a Nuclear Deal - NY Times
"Officials in Israel, which feels the most threatened by Iran, have hinted that if Iran does not accept the Geneva deal they will revive their consideration of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Mr. Obama’s own aides say they cannot determine whether the Israelis are bluffing."
The sentence is the one that starts "Mr. Obama..."
YOU GOTTA BE KIDDING ME. Either the writer of this article is passing pure bunk from the Obama Administration. Or what in the hell have several years of intelligence-gathering, military cooperation and diplomacy achieved? Wasn't it only about a year ago that the U.S. Air Force was involved in joint exercises with Israel, with Iran as the potential target?
The President of the US doesn't know whether or not Israel is bluffing??
Incredible.
If the SEC offered bounties, you could have full employment and a well paid work force
but nooooo..... we need an expensive housing policy instead
lawyerliz
she just skipping along and i agree lots of water. she might just be tropical storm,but she only needs 4 more miles til she s a hurricane again. she needs to be watched very carefully her pressure went down 1 again.
ill be glad when she is gone dont trust her.
Chicago Dude wrote:
Yes
The President of the US doesn't know whether or not Israel is bluffing??
Not when the Iranians can read the NYT like anyone else he doesn't. Benjamin is a madman with a pistol or you are doing it wrong. Iran has their own, or haven't you noticed how Venezuela is mobilizing to attack Columbia, just in case we decide to get tangled up in Iran?
Lets see. If you are under 30 you won't have a job that pays anything.
If you are over 50 you probably cost too much and will be gone
If you are retired - what you have is all you have to eke your long lived existence on.
This is good.
Elvis wrote:
LOL - been there. Personally they can do better for just as cheap - I'd check out Dubuque.
Even Starwood which did the big takeover recently has gone supercheap. $s/minute for local calls, shift the items in the minibar and instant bill to your room, $20/day to use the gym, .... but the 40" flatscreen TV is free to use for now. Those are priorities
but the 40" flatscreen TV is free to use for now. Those are priorities
Need you to order up some porn
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 5:11 pm
Lets see. If you are under 30 you won't have a job that pays anything.
If you are over 50 you probably cost too much and will be gone
If you are retired - what you have is all you have to eke your long lived existence on.
This is good.
For Hu, the bell tolls.
Recession's good news: Cities see burglaries fall - Chicago Tribune
When someone asks me if I'm bluffing at the poker table, I might say, "I don't know". Sometimes it's a true statement, as I might be bluffing with the best hand. Other times it's an obvious way of saying I ain't saying--don't ask such a stupid question.
if there is any justice, ticketmaster will cut its fees/surcharges/extortion
until that happens, this is just a mental recession to quote phil gramm
If their is any justice the Stones will tour again and only 12 people will show up
Bberg:
That Geithner took more than 30 seconds to reject this deal shows how clueless the idiot is.
nova wrote:
Survival of the fittest. Just what our society has been voting for, for the last 40 years.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Free money changes everything... hard to put that into the biz plan though... 'a miracle occurs here' line item usually doesn't cut it.
If somebody asks me if I'm bluffing at the poker table, I know I'm going to take all their money that night.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
HA!! too funny.
Surprise!
China's Premier Warns Obama to Get America's Deficit to an "Appropriate Size": Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
why would the US be afraid of China?
As opposed to every other action the Treasury has taken this decade?
That's the only thing that'll push up interest rates. Pushy external creditors kicking at dollar-printing games that sacrifice the currency to control federal borrowing rates. I'll believe it when I see it, though. It's inevitable, but talk is cheap. When they stop coming to Treasuries auctions, then that will make my ears perk.
Rich:
The consensus master can't comprehend how these ignorant middle-easterners can do such things to one another.
Wanna have an impact? Let ACORN set up an office in Tehran.
dryfly wrote:
Thus my otherwise inexplicable patience waiting for an entry point. The untold hundreds of billions in nexgen manufacturing is going to change hands under Obama in numbers that will erase the stain of Carter.
rich wrote:
I know more than a few Israeli's in the biz [own defense hardware companies] - will be meeting one next week for a joint plant visit [pursuing non-military work here]... my guess without talking to him is this is the geo-political equivalent 'don't ask - don't tell'... while playing good cop - bad cop at the same time.
If I was the imperial masters I'd be doing the same thing. Let the minions do the dirty work while the lord washes his hands.
the only thing that will push the Chinese populace over the edge are any further hits to exports
it may be a sinking boat, but it still beats trying to swim to the nearest piece of land on the horizon
HMS Coventry (D118) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Within 20 minutes Coventry had been abandoned and had completely capsized. 19 of her crew were lost and a further 30 injured. Coventry sank shortly after.[5] After the ship was struck, her crew, waiting to be rescued, sang "Always Look on the Bright Side of Life" from Monty Python's Life of Brian
Just coincidentally, my reading elsewhere.
(I blame Rob Dawg, an A-4 Skyhawk did it)
We are all distressed now.
Byzantine_Ruins wrote:
Mien Gottt vatt a memory! At least it was one of the old Skyhawks and not one of my squadrons of new A-4g Stealthawks.
OT: Slashdot | What Computer Science Can Teach Economics
Maybe it isn't priced in after all?
Have spent some time looking at the Personal Income data from the BEA. I feel a whole lot better because it was driving me crazy to figure out where the spending was coming given the big declines in employment and the shutting down of the ATM window. It also makes the road ahead so much clearer.
Firstly, contrary to my starting assumption disposable personal income has not in fact decreased but is up 0.75% from the fourth quarter of last year thanks to a big cut in taxes and increase government transfer payments up 12% from the fourth quarter. Interestingly if one adds back unemployment benefits to total compensation received by employees the aggregate would be higher than what it was in the fourth quarter. (slightly lower if one excluded government employees whose aggregate income went up). In short more income from 4th quarter 2008 more spending with a declining savings rate.
However, looking at those numbers the future vulnerability becomes evident.
Interest received was only down about 4.5% during that period- my guess is 2010 is when the full brunt of the Feds low interest rate policy will begin to bite.as peoples CD's and other fixed investments mature and are replaced at much lower rates. A 10% decline in interest received will be equal to about half the decline in private sector wages we have seen since 2008 i.e about half the effect of the increased unemployment.
Social security payments whose contribution was almost equal to the increase in disposable income will not be making any contribution this year. Net of increased medicaire payments it will actually be a negative.
I suspect that private sector wages were boosted this year by a (a) the higher inflation rate in 2008 which probably resulted in higher COLA this year (b) severance packages for employees who were laid off. None of those factors will be at play in 2010. So I think wage income will have a tough time maintaining its current level even with no further unemployment.
Lastly, government employees held up personal income in 2009. I don/'t think that will be happening in 2010.
My net conclusion- if credit conditions are still getting tighter the notion of a job less recovery for 2010 is just mathematically impossible. Unless we start getting a creation of net new jobs soon I think that we will be about set for the next down leg in consumer spending and everything that entails.
Oh geesh the priced in meme.
How can anybody dare say that now?
Rob Dawg wrote:
The Bush I 'peace dividend' already beat out the Carter event - the question is will this extinction event be the biggest yet? Bigger than early 90s? Could be.
Also I see no blame for Obama [Bush I, Bush II or Clinton] in any of this - I deal w/ the folks in Wichita enough to see that they made their own bed without any real help from the gubbmint... offshoring, outsourcing core competencies - even trying to split the production from development via 'platforming' [Spirit Aerospace is to Boeing what Delphi is to GM - we all know how well that worked out].
This is a case just like automotive where mgmt decided they'd rather make deals than make product... rather cut ribbon w/ chainsaws than cut metal chips in factories. It was doomed from the start - late 90's & early 00's.
Platform capitalists should be second to the gulags only after the bankers.
Perhaps we should limit the total number of MBAs granted, or
require they get a science degree first.
dryfly wrote:
What is this "Carter event" of whence you speak?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
It is interesting that the Indian Prime Minister has declared that the government will be withdrawing the fiscal stimulus in 2010 the first G-20 country to do so. But what is more interesting is that he has said that he expects demand from the developed countries to remain weak and Indian growth will have to based on strong internal demand. I have no doubt that the Chinese have come to the same conclusion with regard to their own economy. Their challenge is how to let go of the tigers tail. I suspect that their stock piling of commodities particularly food grains is a prelude to that. I think they can buy themselves time vis a vis civil unrest as they re-orient their economy as long as they can keep people fed.
lawyerliz wrote:
Why?
So there will be fewer of them!
Adviser: "Mr. P., the NYT reporter asked if Israel was bluffing"
----"What did you answer?"
----"You're fired"
----"You're fired"
---"Heckuva job."
lawyerliz wrote:
MBA's? An MBA is just another secret hand-shake thing. Besides, it was the physicists that created the financial models that the MBA's were using to "price" risk and assets. The only safety we have against the smart amoral scumbags is to make sure they are spread out (not concentrated in place).
Not one comment about the Iran/Israel post has been on target. It's not about bluffing. Israel can bluff Iran all they want.
But if Israel has cut the President of the U.S. off from its intelligence and military planning, then we are in real trouble, and you have to wonder why we would ever stand up for them again. There's almost no chance that has happened. So, what's this about?
The first seed of plausible deny-ability by Obama.
Uhh-ooh.
dryfly wrote:
Mixed response. Yes "success" of "winning" the "cold war" resulted in massive reallocation of productive assets but that was classic old economy stuff. We knew that was going to happen just like the 700 ship Navy was a target not a necessity. I don'y Blame Reagan/ush I/Clinton or Bush II for any of that. No, I'm talking about gutting the military for "other" priorities nd in that I am beginning to suspect Obama could exceed Carter.
Like Byz reminds us I am ready to open two lines of the A-4g with modern avionics in export air defense and California Special trim for our best friends.
Rob Dawg wrote:
OH! Competing socialist priorities. Got it.
I don't got it, what is Byz and Dawg talking about?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
It needs to be stressed that it was the MBA's in charge of the physicists and not the other way around.
rich wrote:
I try to stay out of this nonsense but this one is just too over the top. 30 seconds after Israel cuts us out of their intel feed we mention this to Egypt and ask them what they think and if any of their friends have anything to add.
Stick to your usual off topic investing advice.
rich wrote:
Isn't this just the good-cop/bad-cop game? I'm a bit confused about what you are getting at?
Whiskey wrote:
Sure, but image how dangerous a physicists armed with an MBA would be. GS would have nuclure weapons now!
Ok, if our adversaries can bring down our grid, can't we bring
down their grid?
I think he means the Israelis attack and we pretend we didn't know.
Still don't understand the Carter thing.
lawyerliz wrote:
Carter cut off his welfare.
Whose on first? No, I mean whose welfare?
I know people who went the PhD-to-MBA route, and it never made any sense to me, except culturally. B-school is by-and-large for charismatic idiots.
re: ERTS
apparently they announced another 1,500 job cuts
from 10,000 down to 7,500 employees in less than a year (are they still doing the 80hr per week minimum crunch months?)
I would like to add that if the stock market were in any way sane, a report in the NY Times stating that Israel may be planning an attack on Iran, but the President of the U.S. has no clue whether or not Israel is bluffing, would give experienced, sober investors serious pause.
But that did not happen. So, it tells you the market is totally insane and due for a serious fall.
lawyerliz wrote:
Welfare for the heroic companies building all of this glorious nation's weapons (and really cool airplanes). Which creates jobs, and freedom, and research, and freedom - none of which could be accomplished by the invisible hand of the market place (for reasons only liberatarians understand).
Elvis, I always like to ask if people are bluffing, and I occaisionally show my hole cards to the table. When you play tournaments, you have to keep 'em guessing always. If you play a consistent style, you get figured out and pigeonholed. That said, straight gambling with real money on the table is much tighter, and calling stations get blown out much faster, but with limits rising every 15 minutes, ya gotta act, and bluff, and fold.
The funny thing is, in my mind tournament poker is a lot more fun, but less profitable. Regular poker is just like going to work, profitable, but boring- it only gets highly profitable if you have a lot of rich drunks- something I have not seen very much of over the last few years.
As for Israel, it ain't no bluff. They can, and will deliver as much ordinance as necessary to do the job. They really have no choice.
I would guess that is why the price of oil has kept on climbing, should the Iranians blink and cut a deal, oil plummets.
Too many balls in the air, somebody is going to drop one- I would wonder why there is no wikipedia entry on Francop or Visia and take that with a very interesting grain of salt.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Rob Dawg- what in your opinion is the biggest security threat to the United States and its citizens-not to US financial interests unless you believe those to be the same.
rich wrote:
No, it tells you that nobody cares until it happens. Like global warming, who cares now? I don't.
crazyv wrote:
Which NIPA tables are you looking at? I am not seeing any year over year improvement in private wages, in fact quite the opposite - the decline in private sector wages has accelerated into the third quarter of this year on a year over year basis:
energyecon: Personal Income: Private Wages Year Over Year Change
Pathetic.
lawyerliz wrote:
Funny story. This was mid80s 'rust belt part one'... was with a guy at a cafe in Sleepyeye MN. We had just went into a call a few miles farther down the road and I was getting him a late breakfast before a mad dash to the airport 2-3 hours away. There was no fast food in that town back then so stopped at a country cafe.
We ordered HUGE breakfasts - eggs, juice, coffee, hashbrowns, toast, ham [real ham - not the fake stuff]... our plates overflowed. We ate & talked - being the only two people in the cafe NOT wearing overalls & seed caps [we wore suits - that was the custom then].
The bill came & my buddy took it and gasped. I looked at him and snatched it from his hand thinking the locals [whom I knew] were sticking it to him because he was a big city slicker in a suit... wasn't the case. Both meals combined came to less than $6 tip included. I asked him 'what's the problem... why the big gasp'?
He said 'it's so cheap - there has to be something wrong?' I said 'why'?... he went on to a long lecture of pricing and value and blah blah... he had an MBA. I told him to pay and let's get going... outside I showed him the cafe next door. Turns out there were two almost identical cafes on the same block - both about equally full of farmers. I told my buddy that if either of them raised the price of coffee by one nickle - the farmers would all stand up and walk out in unison & go next door.
His reply was why didn't they just agree to both raise prices together? I said - they could - but do you really think Olsen would trust Schultz [the two cafe owners] to keep a deal? He'd secretly cut price to his 'favored' customers. Before you know it there'd be another price war over coffee so why waste time. Besides they both think the other guy is going broke any day now the way they 'give it away'...
My buddy said - this is something they talked about in his MBA classes but never really thought it happened - we both agreed maybe Harvard & Wharton are sending their kids to intern at the wrong places. Need to wait tables in Sleepyeye.
rich wrote:
Occurred to me. But maybe a sly bluff to the Iranians that he doesn't know, to get them nervous enough to comply ?
GS has nuclear derivatives instead!!!
Seriously, with the largest prop algo trading hedge funds owned by GS, what do you expect?
Only problem is Black Swans, but with government backing, even that is covered.
Someday this war's gonna end...
crazyv wrote:
not Rob Dawg, but I would say the United States itself. A lot of people standing around asking where the last X years of their work went, and why the plates of someone among their family/friends are empty today
"But that did not happen. So, it tells you the market is totally insane and due for a serious fall. "
Rich, does the second necessarily follow the first?
rich wrote:
That is the washing hands part rich... also Israel might very well NOT tell us. We might say 'no'. That would be awkward if they really plan to do it anyway. Better to just do it and then later try the awe shucks apology afterward.
rich wrote:
I think the market behavior is perfectly sane and rational and I am surprised that so many are baffled by it. Fund managers have to be long or in cash. Cash yields nothing literally. Hard to get people to pay you management fee for producing zero return. Therefore you buy , hope that all your other buddies figure out the same thing, hope to sucker some more people in or squeeze the shorts who believe in that quaint notion of fundamentals get a good mark at the end of the year and collect your bonus.
If the market blows up following that and you lose your job - you would have lost it staying in cash so you have your bonus but lost your job better than losing your job and no bonus. Plus if the game gets stretched out another year yet another bonus. What is not sane or rational about that behavior. I think so many of you are confused because you believe that there is honor and morality and doing the right thing. Much better to adopt Seneca's stoic philosophy of expecting the worst and surprises can only be pleasant.
The Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS has been publishing distressed sales data for nearly 2 years now and just recently have been able to go back and differentiate short sales and REOs back 3+ years.
News Releases
COLA is zero for 2010.
energyecon wrote:
didn't say there was a increase in private wages- there was an increase disposable income. Private wages are down but over all disposable income is up because increased government wages and transfer payments. The BEA has an Excel table with all the data.
I bet they didn't cover planning for 20% cuts in dividend income at the retirement seminar St. Louis Fed: Series: PDI, Personal Dividend Income
(disclaimer: the St Louis Fed cut off their gray recession bars at July 2009 without explanation provided for the breach of written protocol)
crazyv wrote:
Asymmetric information flow.
That sounds like a simplistic or weird cop-out but it is a real and present danger. We've allowed, even encouraged other societies to freely take advantage of our national constructs. In some cases like Japan the benefits were two way and the synergies exceeded the costs. Then we get $2 DVDs in China, free Windows 7, substandard bolts on aircraft and global air pollution on the west coast of the US.
And in the reverse direction? What reverse direction? See? Asymmetric.
edit: gack, I honestly am not sure what if any debt servicing subtracts from disposable income. might just be after tax, but I would think mortgage payments are considered special/steady
[don't forget defaults and delinquencies]
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Fair enough - but if that is the case why do we need to spend 50% of the global spending on the military? While one argue whether Carter hollowed the military the threats facing us are completely different.
crazyv wrote:
ah, but you did and explicitly stated several mechanisms for that to occur:
you are plain wrong there...
crazyv wrote:
How much did he cut?! 25%? 50%?
Hi and good evening all. Im baaaaaack.
Justasking asked on the last thread how much in a storage unit is dumpster trash. obviously it depends on each unit, however I have a self-employed friend, a painter, and when things are slow paint wise he and a friend purchase delinquent storage units and sell the stuff. He is amazed that people actually go through the trouble to rent a storage unit. he estimates 75 percent is junk.
Again my earlier response to Evil Paulson stands - neither yours nor his response would have been the same in the late 70's early 80s. Our security threats are completely different yet we still think of the defense budget in the same sacrosanct manner. Just read Discover magazine - they had an interesting foot note . The military conducted an exercise to defend against cyber war and required everybody to be dressed in combat fatigues- Discovers comment - they missed the point.
crazyv wrote:
The United States is the world's largest arms exporter fwiw
Rob Dawg wrote:
Ummmmmm, they buy our coupons for houses and taxes? And pass on those coupons to the oil and ore extractors?
Starts to giggle uncontrolably!
Someday this war's gonna end...
dryfly wrote:
Old Man Shultz? With the twins who won the Miss Nordern Minesodah Dairy cow milking contest? Small world dontcha know. Jeez, dey were a hadful fer shure. Four handfuls if ya know vhat I mean.
Seriously, the US went from hick to king so fast we never learned the value of the middle. Looks like we are going to go back and repeat 7th grade.
Energycon- I don't want to get into an English language class but boosted doesn't imply that the final number was higher than some previous number only that the final number would have been lower but for the factors cited..
U.S. Joblessness May Reach 13 Percent, Rosenberg Says (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
A little higher than I predicted but still quite possible.
He is amazed that people actually go through the trouble to rent a storage unit.
i'm probably guilty of that, but when i've had to board a room, i usually rent a storage unit as overflow space.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Actually defense spending increased under Carter is memory serves me right and many of the "new weapon systems" that are credited to Reagan began during the Carter administration. But never let facts get in the way of a good fairy tale.
tax cuts (payroll tax cut) + government transfers (eg $8000 for a house, $3000 for a car, $100 bonus for SS)
would boost disposable income
that would be a dictionary, not a class:
boost
2 entries found.
1boost (verb)
2boost (noun)
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Main Entry: 1boost
Pronunciation: \ˈbüst\
Function: verb
Etymology: origin unknown
Date: 1801
transitive verb
1 : to push or shove up from below
2 : increase, raise
3 : to promote the cause or interests of : plug
4 : to raise the voltage of or across (an electric circuit)
5 slang : steal, shoplift
intransitive verb
slang : shoplift
synonyms see lift
boost - Definition from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary
There are OUTHOUSES in Malibu? wow, gotta mark that down as hoocoodanode. I expect to see outhouses where I live, but malibu?!?!
Outhouses are the norm.
I have come to the conclusion that Rob Dawg is a team of bots. Nobody could sit here day after day, year after year, and post as frequently, on so many varied subjects.
Blackwater.
Here are the same stats for the East Bay
East Bay Housing Review, November 1st 2009 | Danville Area Real Estate Trends and Analysis
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
It looks to me like the MBA's used the physicists to make the math as complex as possible to disguise the fact that it did not add up...